GLOBSEC Magazine 1/2019 by GLOBSEC Academy Centre

GLOBSEC MAGAZINE

1.2019

FACING THE FUTURE: EUROPE’S CHALLENGES IN 2019 ⊲ INTERVIEW WITH MIROSLAV LAJČÁK by Lucia Husenicová

⊲ BREXIT: THE WITHDRAWAL DEAL IS ON THE TABLE by Orsolya Raczova

⊲ FOURTH INDUSTRIAL REVOLUTION: TRENDS AND STRATEGIES FOR THE WORKFORCE by Zuzana Navrátilová

⊲ THE FUTURE OF EURO-AREA GOVERNANCE by Ulrich Brasche

12 IN DEPTH

IN THIS ISSUE 4

A man walks past a plaque with the EU ﬂag placed at the European Commission headquarters ahead of a EU summit focus on Brexit, in Brussels. AP Photo/Francisco Seco

HEADLINES

8 INTERVIEW WITH MIROSLAV LAJČÁK

15 IN DEPTH

12 IN DEPTH ⊲ Brexit: The withdrawal deal is on the table by Orsolya Raczova ⊲ Fourth Industrial Revolution: Trends and Strategies for the Workforce

In this photo, the Samsung Galaxy Note 9 is shown in New York. Retailers are taking back some control of the store experience with smartphone app features that let customers do things like scan and pay, as well as download digital maps. AP Photo/Richard Drew, File

by Zuzana Navrátilová ⊲ From online battleﬁeld to loss of trust? by Dominika Hajdu, Katarina Klingova

22 OP-ED ⊲ Can EU’s carbon neutrality save Paris in Katowice? by Dominik Hatiar

OP-ED

26 HISTORY CHAPTER ⊲ Importance of eight in history by Zuzana Podracká In this photo, plumes of smoke rise from Europe’s largest lignite power plant in Belchatow, central Poland. AP Photo/Czarek Sokolowski

28 EU INSIGHT ⊲ The future of euro-area governance by Ulrich Brasche

28 EU INSIGHT

31 VISEGRAD NEWS

42 GLOBSEC CHATEAU BÉLA CENTRAL EUROPEAN STRATEGIC FORUM 2018 European Union leaders attend a round table meeting at an EU summit in Brussels. Stephanie Lecocq, Pool Photo via AP

44 QUIZ

EDITORIAL SOŇA TROJANOVÁ Editor-in-Chief The EU is a strong global actor, though in recent years it had to deal with many institutional and security issues. Yet its’ biggest challenges seem to lay ahead in 2019. There are calls to policy makers for greater unity of members within the EU, as well for increased European security. The upcoming elections to the EU Parliament are high on the current priority list, while Brexit still remains with many unresolved issues, that can be ultimately solved without Britain’s agreement. The topic is explored in our In Depth column. Concerning the parliamentary elections, we will be able to monitor not only the political struggle, but also the intense conversations about the EU. Changes in the EU such as reforms in defence, security, migration, and other key policies have long been expected. France and Germany play a large role in this decision-making process, while it is no secret that they both see the future of the Union differently. In order for the EU to be more coherent with its policies, it must be able to make global decisions. As a result of the latest demands and expectations, the Global Pact on Migration is now in place, underlining the fact that the European Union needs not only a global approach to migration but also sharing of commitment between all of its members when addressing this issue. Some representatives

of the European diplomacy are convinced that although this pact will serve the national interests of the Member States, there is a good reason to be sceptical about their reaction. In recent events, we can observe the individual Member States being keenly interested in migration policies, often feeling that the decisions being made on the level of the EU make them more vulnerable. During the ﬁrst half of 2019, when Europe is going to make a number of changes, Romania is to chair the Council of the EU, focusing on growth and security of the Union, as well as on its neighbours. The key points of the Romanian program concern development of regions now under discussion in the EU. The Romanian Presidency will undoubtedly have the impression that the United States alone will follow the fact that they have presided over their embassy in Jerusalem. For Romania, it is the ﬁrst Presidency of the Council of the EU, and it is sure to present great challenges. In this issue, we survey the most important events awaiting the EU in 2019. Miroslav Lajcak, Minister of Foreign Affairs and European Affairs of the Slovak Republic gives an interview on the topic. Other, similarly relevant topics were being discussed on the 10th forum at Chateau Bela organized annually by GLOBSEC, which we report on in a special section. Dear readers, allow me to welcome you on the pages of this edition of the Globsec magazine. The theme of this issue is the future of the European Union and its challenges. I am honoured on behalf of our entire editorial board to present you the work of some of the most esteemed experts on the presented topics and issues. Remember to keep up with Globsec magazine on Facebook! ■

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HEADLINES ⊲ G20 LEADERS’ DECLARATION

President Donald Trump and other heads of state react to Mexico’s President Enrique Pena Nieto, throwing his hands up, being the last one to arrive for the family photo at the G20 summit. AP Photo/Pablo Martinez Monsivais

G20 LEADERS’ DECLARATION - BUILDING CONSENSUS FOR FAIR AND SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT G20 leaders met in Buenos Aires on 30 November and 1 December 2018. They have agreed to overhaul the global body that regulates trade disputes, but they faced resistance from President Donald Trump over the Paris accord on climate change. All G-20 leaders called for reforming the World Trade Organization and the issue will be discussed during the group’s next summit in Osaka, Japan, in June. Trump has criticized the WTO and taken aggressive trade policies targeting China and the European Union. The U.S. - China Trade war was also the topic on the table. Financial markets will be cheered by the U.S. announcement that Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping agreed at a dinner after the summit to have a 90-day truce in their trade battle. Trump agreed to hold off on plans to raise tariffs in Chinese goods.

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Xi agreed to buy a not yet agreed upon, but very substantial amount of agricultural, energy, industrial and other products from the United States to reduce America’s sizeable trade deficit with China. There were some awkward moments for Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman as some leaders called him out over the gruesome October killing of dissident Saudi newspaper columnist Jamal Khashoggi at the country’s consulate in Istanbul. U.S. intelligence agencies concluded the Saudi prince was behind the killing. Saudi Arabia denies he played a role. Western leaders confronted Putin over Russia’s recent seizure of Ukrainian naval vessels and crews, but the diplomatic pressure didn’t seem to bring either side closer to solving the conﬂict. Putin tried to convince Trump and the leaders of France and Germany that Russia’s actions were justiﬁed — even pulling out a piece of paper and drawing a map of the disputed area to make his point. ■

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SEA OF AZOV CONFLICT ⊲ HEADLINES

SEA OF AZOV CONFLICT After the annexation of Crimea in 2014 as well during the subsequent armed conflict in the eastern Ukraine, where Russia openly supported separatists, The Ukrainian government avoided declaring an open state of war. However, a Russian attack on Ukrainian vessels in the Sea of Azov forced Ukraine’s government to declare martial law. The declaration was signed by President Poroshenko and the head of the Parliament. On November 25th, three Ukrainian naval vessels were trying to pass from the Black Sea to the Sea of Azov via the Kerch Strait in accordance with the international maritime law. Russian naval forces responded with force, attacking and seizing all three of Ukrainian vessels in contradiction not only to the maritime law, but also to 2003 agreement between Russia and Ukraine, according to

which both of the countries’ vessels have a right to freely navigate in the Sea of Azov and the Kerch Strait. Ukraine defends its actions by saying that they informed Russian authorities about their intention to cross the Kerch Strait. Moscow objects maintaining this was an act of provocation, as the Ukrainian vessels crossed Russian territorial waters, to which Russian naval force had to respond with force. Moscow indicates that the whole incident may have been tailored so that Poroshenko could justiﬁably declare martial law, thus avoiding the upcoming presidential elections in which he is expected to lose. Both sides accuse the other of violation of maritime law as the unsettled conﬂict after the annexation of Crimea and operations in the eastern Ukraine gain a new, naval dimension. ■

Volunteers with the right-wing paramilitary Azov National Corps shouts slogans during a rally against Russia in front of the Ukrainian President’s office in Kiev, Ukraine. AP Photo/Efrem Lukatsky

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HEADLINES ⊲ FACEBOOK’S PROBLEMS

FACEBOOK’S PROBLEMS Facebook faces a new wave of criticism and pressure to increase its transparency. After a recent scandal with Cambridge Analytica, doubts have emerged about its operation. Documents published by the British Parliament Committee show direct email communication between Facebook’s executive members, in which the public can learn about ethically unsound proﬁt-making practices. The investigation shows that Facebook has created a special charter, the so-called White Lists, which featured other big companies and could access your friends’ data without your approval. These practices took place between 2012 and 2015, when certain changes in user security measures occurred. These emails show that although Facebook has provided better privacy to ordinary users, it has done everything to make these new features more difficult to see in the system.

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In this photo, the logo for Facebook appears on screens at the Nasdaq MarketSite in New York’s Times Square. AP Photo/Richard Drew, File

This has happened, for example, in making it impossible to read messages and other data on Android mobile devices when Facebook is no longer easy to download, and on the other hand, with new app settings, it has not been easier for new users to access new security enhancements. Similarly, Facebook is approaching aggressive policies towards competitive apps. They are not afraid to copy their features to cover the target groups which are trying to attract to their platforms. It also gives information on in-house problems when employees complain about corporate culture, and there is already the opinion amongst many young programming students that they do not even work for Facebook. It is clear that Facebook will have to choose a route it wants to take rather soon. ■

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TRUE EUROPEAN ARMY ⊲ HEADLINES

European Union leaders attend a round table meeting at an EU summit in Brussels. Piroschka van de Wouw, Pool Photo via AP

TRUE EUROPEAN ARMY The topic of establishing a common European army has been surfacing in the EU talks with an increasing frequency. The subject was re-opened a few weeks ago by French President Emmanuel Macron. Speaking about the future of the Union in Strasbourg, German Chancellor Angela Merkel also supported this idea, the key rationale being the fact that the world order is changing, especially in matters of security. Merkel’s words in Strasbourg underline the situation: „The times when we could rely on others have ended.“ Since Donald Trump became President, Europe’s confidence in the US has fallen. The transatlantic pact seems to be weakening, while Russia significantly reinforces its army’s equipment as it feels threatened by the Alliance. In this situation, Europe finds itself more and more concerned about its safety. Trump’s response to the idea of a joint European army doesn’t conceal dissatisfaction, calling it „very insulting“. In a recent tweet he expressed the conviction that European countries should first of all pay their fair share towards their NATO obligations. ■

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INTERVIEW ⊲ H.E. MIROSLAV LAJČÁK

INTERVIEW WITH H.E. MIROSLAV LAJČÁK Minister of the Foreign and European Affairs, Slovak Republic

Mgr. Lucia Husenicová, PhD. Lecturer at Faculty of Political Science and International Relations Since the topic of our discussion is the crisis of multilateralism (one you have been previously a part of, including as a Chairman of UN GA), my first question is whether you agree with the assumption that multilateralism is, in fact, in crisis, and if so, could you describe some actual cases we observe in practice? I would rather say that the principles, values and manifestations of multilateralism are under serious duress. We can see an erosion of universal norms, such as human rights. We can see that the legitimacy of international institutions that regulate our relations and facilitate international cooperation is being put to doubt. We are witnessing renewed power rivalries, growing tensions and widening of rifts between countries and their leaders on many critical issues of global concern. There are many instances that prove this statement. For example, the EU believed that preserving the nuclear deal with Iran (JCPOA) was a matter of respecting international agreements and a matter of international security. Another example was bailing on the Paris Agreement by a government that has a key role in the ﬁght against climate change. I think the rise of authoritarian powers and populism in various quarters of the world puts the rules based global order under further pressure. A question that naturally follows then is: what to do? Undoubtedly, the international institutions have played a positive role in IR in what’s over half of a century now. What should be done to overcome this crisis? Since the end of the WWII, states have established a rulesbased global order grounded in international law, with the United Nations as the bedrock of this system. In that sense the international organizations did not only play a positive role, they played a decisive role in the development of international relations. I don’t see any other alternative to the current system. I don’t

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believe in competitive or selective multilateralism, meaning countries should cooperate simply only when and where it suits their needs and interests. Overcoming this challenge will require all like-minded partners work together to reinvigorate multilateralism and display the same spirit that led to the founding of the United Nations. Reasserting multilateralism is key at this juncture when so many turn inwards in the context of global threats. It is also important to uphold, strengthen and reform the United Nations. You have spent last year as a Chairman of UN General Assembly. What has been the most challenging part of the job? It cannot be easy finding the common ground among 193 countries. I think most of my predecessors would agree that the most challenging part is the annual General Debate of the United Nations General Assembly (GA) in September, when the world leaders gather at UN Headquarters in New York to pronounce themselves on the global issues and conduct bilateral negotiations. The Debate starts a week after the President assumes his/her office. There are other challenges, such as assembling a team before the GA session or raising funds since the office of the President of the General Assembly and his/her activities are still in a very large part financed through voluntary contributions. The growing role of the President of the General Assembly, the increasing workload and the need to interact and engage with the media, civil society and the wider public bring many challenges for the President and his team in the course of the year. I chaired more than 70 meetings of the General Assembly, delivered nearly 300 speeches, held more than 440 meetings with representatives of Member States, organized 10 high-level meetings and events, participated in more than 60 interviews and media engagements and visited 28 countries during one year as President of the General Assembly. You are correct in assuming that it is often times very hard to come to an agreement among 193 countries with different backgrounds, interests and level of development. The President of the General Assembly can play a positive role in supporting dialogue, fostering understanding and bridging differences. That was my priority too. UN is the only international organization with a fully global presence, and as such plays a crucial role in the world. However, since the end of Cold War, it has faced a lot of criticism and calls for reform, so far with little to no result. What are the main problems within the UN, and what should both the organization globally as well as its member states individually focus on in this regard? It is easy to criticize the United Nations. The international organization that will not fight back. It is also an enormous bureaucratic apparatus. Naturally, there are inefficiencies and imperfections. As any other organization, UN too has to adapt itself in order to stay relevant. This process of institutional renovation has been going on since UN’s early

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H.E. MIROSLAV LAJČÁK ⊲ INTERVIEW

President of the United Nations General Assembly Miroslav Lajcak speaks during a high level meeting on peacebuilding and sustaining peace at United Nations headquarters. AP Photo/Mary Altaffer

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INTERVIEW ⊲ H.E. MIROSLAV LAJČÁK years. Since 1990s almost constantly. Opinions may differ as to how effective these reform efforts have been. However, I don’t think it is correct to assume there were no results in reforming the UN whatsoever.

from conﬂict-ridden countries such as Syria or Libya. Helping developing countries implement their national developing plans is an expression of solidary but also the best way to address issues such as illegal migration.

It is very important to bear in mind that reforms are not only technical, but also a political exercise. The UN Member States eventually decide on the level of ambition for what is to be changed. In the case of the UN Security Council the Member States have not been able to agree on a meaningful reform of the Council for 25 years now.

The world we live in today is very interconnected and the majority of problems the humanity faces are transboundary and require global response. All countries – rich or poor, small or large - need the UN. Also, the West is not a homogenous political entity. You have the 28 countries of the EU who view the UN as a strategic partner and multilateralism as a best way to promote our values and interests. On the other hand, we have heard the US President urging other nations to reject globalism and embrace patriotism in his speech to the UN this September.

The current Secretary-General António Guterres has initiated major financial and institutional reforms after assuming office in 2017. He submitted proposals to reposition the UN Development System to align it with the Agenda 2030 for Sustainable Development; to restructuring of the Peace and Security Pillar to better prevent conflicts; and in the area of management to make the organization function better. The session of the General Assembly I was presiding over adopted several key resolutions that guide the implementation of these three reform strands. When implemented, it is expected that the current reforms will lead to a more responsive organization, better delivery to the field, decentralization, delegation of authority, enhanced accountability and transparency. UN needs a change of culture to overcome its risk-aversive, controloriented approaches, and bridge the trust deficit resulting in micromanagement by Member States. Last question related to the UN. The organization is predominantly active in developing parts of the world, while it seems that its presence in the developed countries fades. There appears to be a lack of communication from the UN to the countries’ citizens about the nature of its activities and the rationale behind them. An example comes to mind with the Migration Pact, which is mostly being presented to people in Europe in negative light by countries’ national politicians. Is there any mechanism by means of which UN plans to represent its agenda better in the West? UN is very active in the field of development, but is equally very active in maintaining international peace and security and human rights. I don’t share the view that the UN is an organization for the developing world with the Western countries gradually losing interest in its work. Quite the opposite is true. The major global agreements adopted recently under the auspices of the UN such as the Sustainable Development Goals and the Paris Climate Agreement provide a common positive agenda for transformation for developed and developing countries alike. The Universal Declaration of Human Rights adopted by the UN, whose 70th Anniversary we celebrate this year is equally important for Slovakia as it is for Kenya. The failure or success of UN and international community in preventing conflict or restoring peace in regions geographically distant from our country can have direct impact on our society and region. I am sure you can recall the recent crisis in the EU caused by the rising number of people arriving in the European Union

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The fact that some countries rejected the Global Compact for Safe, Orderly, and Regular migration was not necessarily a failure on the part of the UN. In fact, the UN has become significantly more active in involving people, particularly the youth, in solutions to global problems; but, naturally, the outreach of the UN still has its limits. From that point, we hope that the media and politicians of respective countries spread the UN’s message. Unfortunately, this is where the messages get miscommunicated or not communicated at all, where the universal messages are stained with political agenda and quick judgement. When the Global Compact was finalized this July, we hoped that the 193 member states would communicate its messages to their citizens. We hoped that these messages would echo around the world with the same enthusiasm they did in the UN. I, along with many representatives from their respective countries, made this our mission; but our voice of reason was not as resounding as others’ cries of fear. That is why some countries, including Slovakia, unfortunately decided to withdraw from the Global Compact on Migration. Moving on to the EU as another example of crisis in multilateralism. As Brexit draws closer, populist politicians on national level gain strength while also preparing for the upcoming EP elections. People do not understand the EU, taking its benefits for granted, often overlooking them completely. The EU needs to react to this. You are participating at different levels of discussions and negotiations; is this an issue the Council is debating? If so, are there any suggestions on how to communicate what EU is in more specific and simple ways? To a large extent, extremism and populism in Europe are direct consequences of the spread of disinformation and hostile propaganda. Our information space is replete with disinformation about NATO, transatlantic cooperation, democratic institutions or the EU. This negative constellation is in Slovakia exacerbated by over 42 conspiracy outlets helping to create and disseminate such hostile content. In France, for instance, we are now all but certain that the „Yellow Vests“ movement was, apart from the French right-wing extremists, used by some third countries as a tool of hybrid tactics. As such, these tactics are spreading

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H.E. MIROSLAV LAJČÁK ⊲ INTERVIEW further, including to our own region or the Balkans and Maghreb – everywhere these countries believe such tactics to be efficient in undermining democracy. We must reﬂect on this if we want to stem their further spreading. The communication must, therefore, focus on several crucial aspects: a) creating our own positive narrative – limiting the space available for disinformation; b) support an open discussion with extremists and populists and defeat them with our substantive arguments in front of very our public; c) better coordinate our actions at the EU level. For we cannot overcome these problems on our own, and that is why we are Members of the EU (and NATO). That is why we support the EEAS’ and Commision’s Action Plan against disinformation – an extremely vital tool for the protection of next year’s European Elections. With respect to the Elections, we must continue with the quality and targeted communication with young people in particular: populism and extremism (In Slovakia, 20% of people under 24 would vote for extreme right-wing party ĽSNS – according to a recent poll by FOCUS) goes handin-hand with Euroscepticism. By doing so, we must take advantage of social media, which is becoming the primary source of information for young people. We will continue with the #WeAreEU discussions – explaining together with our MEPs the importance of the Elections and the EU as such. Not only for Slovakia, but for the whole of Europe. When looking at the criticisms the EU is facing, it is often pointed out that the Union harms individual national interests and curbs national sovereignty of its members. How are these rather strong positions being addressed through the negotiation process? How can we make sure that compromises adopted are presented to the population not merely as another “Brussels‘ dictate” but as fair mutual agreements between partners?

the agreement between two institutions: the Council of the EU comprising ministers from all EU governments and the European parliament comprising elected representatives of the citizens of EU countries. The European council, where EU leaders meet, also plays an increasingly important role in setting the agenda. When arriving at a decision, qualified majority voting is used in some areas, such as environment, agriculture and transport. This means that sometimes, some countries have to accept certain decisions they were against. However, one has to remind oneself that in order to have a functioning organisation of so many countries, sometimes one has to lose something in order to gain something else. One of the biggest gripes of Eurosceptics is the extension of qualiﬁedmajority voting to other areas. However, the more sensitive policies, including tax, defence and foreign policy, are agreed by unanimity. This means that in order to achieve progress on a certain matter, usually a compromise has to be found which is acceptable to all members. Each Council meeting brings together national ministers of individual Member States representing their respective national positions. Therefore, if a decision is taken, that means all countries supported it. Regarding the European Parliament, the MEPs are directly elected by the citizens since 1979, giving legitimacy to this institution. It is true that voter turnout has been on a downward trend, although the Parliament is increasingly inﬂuential. Its problem is connecting to its electorate. Therefore, positive communication on the EU has to be improved. We should concentrate on providing quality content and discussions to the public. Doing so would show the EU citizens that throughout the decision-making process, their direct representatives and the representatives of their countries are the ones making decisions, instead of unelected bureaucrats from Brussels. Greater awareness of the EU’s functioning could help motivate citizens to go vote in the EP elections. ■

The level of sovereignty a Member State enjoys within the EU has been a heated topic for some ever since the start of European integration. It is true that EU Member States pool sovereignty in areas they have chosen to collaborate on, but in no way do they give their sovereignty away. Member States jointly constitute, embody and run the EU. Whatever the EU does, it does it because its members have agreed to it. Simply put, you cannot have a union in which there are no common laws between Member States. Similarly, because the EU is a place of compromise between Member States for the sake of cooperation and progress, there is no such thing as “a Brussels’ dictate”. When people talk about “the unelected bureaucrats of Brussels”, they usually mean the European Commission. The Commission is an institution, which may look like a government at ﬁrst, but it is not. It is composed of 28 commissioners – one from each country – and its main functions are to draft, enforce and monitor EU laws. However, it does not pass laws. The passing of EU laws is a result of an entire process, mainly

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IN DEPTH ⊲ BREXIT: THE WITHDRAWAL DEAL IS ON THE TABLE

Anti-Brexit campaigners wave a European Union ﬂag in front of parliament in London. AP Photo/Kirsty Wigglesworth

BREXIT: THE WITHDRAWAL DEAL IS ON THE TABLE Orsolya Raczova, Research Fellow, GLOBSEC

On 23rd June 2016 the British people voted to leave the European Union. Following the referendum, a period of negotiations on the withdrawal agreement started. While the EU, in the spotlight with Chief Negotiator Michel Barnier, maintained relative calmness and unity throughout the process, the British side experienced a number of internal

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disagreements and a set of resignations. The key product envisioning the British viewpoint on Brexit was the Chequers agreement, published in July 2018. This whitepaper not only resulted in 11 resignations, including the Foreign Secretary Boris Johnson and the Brexit Secretary David Davis but was also quickly rejected by the EU. However, despite all the internal political disagreements on the British side, the UK and the EU still managed to agree on the text of the withdrawal agreement in November 2018. Therefore, despite the criticism on how the UK handled the negotiations, agreeing on such a complicated document is a major development for both parties. On November 25 th 2018, after about 20 months of negotiations, the EU leaders unanimously approved the Brexit withdrawal agreement. Although a qualiﬁed majority would have been sufficient to approve this deal, the EU leaders aimed for unanimity in order to keep unity across the

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BREXIT: THE WITHDRAWAL DEAL IS ON THE TABLE ⊲ IN DEPTH block on this important matter. The fact that the EU leaders were all on the same opinion was another success for the EU. What exactly is the withdrawal deal and what does it mean in reality for both parties? This 585-page document along with a 26-page political declaration will be the legal basis for the upcoming Brexit, officially due 29th March 2019. The document covers all the topics that have been discussed since the referendum, including the following main points: the Brexit bill, the citizens’ rights, Northern Ireland and the future economic and trade relations without Single Market membership. As agreed, Britain shall pay an estimated £39 billion to the EU upon leaving the block. Moreover, the rights of all EU citizens arriving before the end of the transition period shall be guaranteed. Currently, the transition period is estimated to last until the end of 2020, though more than one transition period or extended transition periods are already expected. The Irish question has dominated the agenda since the referendum, and it was feared that this issue will inhibit a potential agreement between the two parties. In the end, there is a complex deal laid out in the withdrawal document with an important backstop. Should there be no trade agreement by the end of the transition period that would guarantee a lack of a physical border on the island, the backstop will apply, meaning that the UK becomes part of the customs union and Northern Ireland will follow the rules of the Single Market applicable on trade. This will guarantee the maintenance of free movement between Northern Ireland and the Republic of Ireland, and most importantly, ensures the hard-fought peace between the two countries. On one hand, the backstop will keep peace on the island even in the event of a failure to agree on trade by the end of the transition period, which is a very realistic scenario. On the other hand, however, the backstop will result in a deeper and more integrated customs union between Northern Ireland and the EU compared to the rest of the UK and the EU. Moreover, this relationship will be dictated by the rules of the Single Market, over which the UK will not have any say after Brexit. As a non-member, the UK will no longer have an inﬂuence or a say on how EU rules and regulations should be created or adjusted but, to a certain extent, will still have to abide by these. There is a realistic fear that in this scenario, disparities between Northern Ireland and the rest of the UK will be greater and greater.

Britain’s Prime Minister Theresa May leaves Downing Street in London AP Photo/Kirsty Wigglesworth

Thus, Brexit will “ primarily impact Central Eastern Europe from the immigration angle.

As a result of Brexit, the UK will withdraw from the Single Market, thus the countries will no longer be bound by the four freedoms, including the free movement of people. Although the new system applicable to EU citizens is not officially introduced yet, once the transition period is over, a visa system is expected to be put in place, limiting primarily the influx of workers into the country. This will have an impact on future immigration of EU citizens to the UK. Central Eastern European countries have generated a high number of immigrants to the UK since they joined the EU, currently the largest number of EU citizens living in the UK are Poles with an estimate 813 000 individuals. Their rights shall be

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IN DEPTH ⊲ BREXIT: THE WITHDRAWAL DEAL IS ON THE TABLE guaranteed according to the current plans, but immigration after the end of the transition period will significantly be more difficult. Thus, Brexit will primarily impact Central Eastern Europe from the immigration angle. At this stage, there is no concrete proposal on the visa system to be applicable to EU citizens. However, the Prime Minister’s plan is to set up a skill-based quota system, based on which the best and most qualified applicants will obtain the right to work and live in the UK. Though there is a plan to develop a cooperative framework applicable to students and short-term workers, as well as a short-term stay for tourists, economic migration will be significantly hampered. As we know, a key objective of the Brexit campaign was to control immigration of EU citizens to the UK, therefore the UK maintained its position on the four freedoms throughout the negotiations, and thus the final withdrawal agreement did not result in the development of a soft Brexit scenario. Free movement, however, will not only limit the influx of people, but most of all will significantly change the movement of goods, i.e. international trade. This is where the 585-page long document remains vague, and agreeing on future trade relations in each sector it is likely to be a major challenge throughout the upcoming transition period(s). As EU leaders rejected Theresa May’s proposal on a common rule book to be used to determine future trade relations, negotiating parties will have a long set of debates ahead.

An anti-Brexit campaigner holds a banner in front of parliament in London AP Photo/Kirsty Wigglesworth

For now, the next step is for the UK and the European Parliament to agree on the withdrawal agreement. . The EU does not intend to reopen negotiations, therefore it is believed that the UK is left with this deal or no deal at all for now. Should the deal be ratified on the British side, the UK is scheduled to leave the EU at the end of March 2019, with the first transition period until the end of 2020 giving way to continued negotiations. However, a second transition period, although without set dates, is already on the cards, with the possibility of a third transition period with the activated backstop also being discussed. Therefore, even if the UK approves the withdrawal deal and exits the EU as scheduled, settling Brexit once and for all looks a long way away still. Although significant progress has already been made in the last two-and-a-half years, the most difficult challenges of the entire Brexit process are yet to come. ■

Free movement, will “ not only limit the inﬂux of people, but most of all will signiﬁcantly change the movement of goods, i.e. international trade.

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FOURTH INDUSTRIAL REVOLUTION: TRENDS AND STRATEGIES FOR THE WORKFORCE ⊲ IN DEPTH

Eurogroup finance ministers sign an EU flag during a round table meeting of eurogroup finance ministers in Luxembourg AP Photo/Virginia Mayo

The global labour markets are expected to undergo a significant transformation in the next five years. Two key drivers of change in the global labour market are the increasing adoption of artiﬁcial intelligence (AI) in the workplace and the expansion of the workforce to include both on- and off-balance-sheet talent, also referred to as the open talent continuum. Advances in technology have been long a concern for many, as AI and robots have been making their way to perform jobs previously done by humans. However, contrary to the fears of job losses, a number of studies, such as the recent World Economic Forum’s Job Survey, draw a rather positive picture for the future of jobs. The wide consensus suggests that the amount of newly created roles will offset the number of jobs made obsolete by new technologies. From the data gathered from large multinational companies, the period between 2018-2022 will see a structural decline of certain types of roles (10% decline), which will be nevertheless completely counter-balanced by job creation and the emergence of new professions (11% increase). Approximately half of today’s core roles across industries will remain predominantly stable up until 2022. Deducing from these trends for the global workforce employed by large companies, it is estimated that 75 million jobs could be displaced whilst 133 million new jobs may emerge at the same time. The question is what types of new jobs are on the rise and do we have enough workers with the right skills?

FOURTH INDUSTRIAL REVOLUTION: TRENDS AND STRATEGIES FOR THE WORKFORCE Zuzana Navrátilová, Office Manager, GLOBSEC Policy Institute

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IN DEPTH ⊲ FOURTH INDUSTRIAL REVOLUTION: TRENDS AND STRATEGIES FOR THE WORKFORCE

In this photo, customers look at iPhone 8 and iPhone 8 Plus phones at an Apple Store in San Francisco. AP Photo/Jeff Chiu, File

EMERGING AND DECLINING JOB TYPES

MACHINE-HUMAN COLLABORATION

Jobs highly susceptible to technological advancements and process automation in the next few years will include routinebased white-collar jobs such as Accountants and Auditors, Postal Service Clerks, Data Entry Clerks, Cashiers or Financial Analysts.

To further elaborate on the increasing need for human skills, research shows companies seem more likely to adopt an augmentation strategy, whereby routinised and repetitive tasks will be automated. As a result, automation and the use of algorithms would complement and enhance human workers’ strengths enabling them to focus on value-added activities utilising their distinctively human capabilities. The upcoming labour-augmenting automation technology is predicted to increase the productivity across sectors by 30% compared to 2015 having a positive impact on economic growth.

On the other hand, jobs currently most in demand are technology-related and are becoming increasingly more important. There is a number of new jobs created only in the past decade thanks to new technologies such as Data Analysts, Applications Developers, Social Media Managers or User Experience Designers. The present-day trend is that these roles are on the rise with new ones emerging in the near future and may include professions like Information Security Analysts, Big Data Specialists, AI and Machine Learning Specialists or Robotics Engineers.

skills outdated in only a few years.

However, this potential of increased productivity resulting in more wealth generation could also lead to further increases in inequality. To ensure that the beneﬁts from the AI-based technological progress are widely shared within the society, governments should for instance improve social protection policies for that segment of workforce who did not adjust to new labour market realities well or those in precarious jobs. Especially given the fastest growing segment of workers in today’s economy is the one in alternative work arrangement – off-campus, off-balance sheet, gig workers or freelancers. This trend is set to intensify as online labour platforms continue to spread and employers plan to engage more specialists, contractors and independent experts instead of full-time staff due to the growing skill gap.

In addition to current highly popular technical skills, there is an ongoing demand for intrinsic human skillsets that computers and machines do not possess. STEM (science, technology, engineering and mathematics) no longer satisﬁes the skills requirements in the 21st century since they are vulnerable to automation and need to be complemented with soft skills such as communicating, networking, inﬂuencing, problemsolving or synthetic thinking. It implies that individuals who want to succeed in the best and well-remunerated jobs in the future labour market should have both strong technical as well as social skills.

In order to mitigate potentially negative consequences of platform work, governments should reformulate the deﬁnition of employment to protect the gig and freelance workers as well as extend social protection schemes to support this new expanding workforce segment. Such changes in social security legislation will require the owners of online labour platforms to make social security contributions. Alternatively, a shift from the taxation of labour to a taxation of capital may occur. Some also suggested considering an introduction of basic income and basic services but this idea is highly disputed mainly because others think it fosters adverse incentives for employment and entrepreneurship.

Yet, rapid pace of “ technology makes jobs and

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THE IMPORTANCE OF RE-SKILLING AND LIFELONG LEARNING

providing advice on how to do so, and in which direction they should develop to continue their careers.

The changing world of work has caused that expertise has an ever-shorter shelf life. The average life of a learned business competency has dropped from 30 years in 1984 to 5 years in 2014 and is on a decline. Given the number of new emerging jobs and changing skills requirements, there will need to be proactive, strategic and targeted efforts to incentivise workforce training and encourage lifelong learning. Thus far, companies predominantly targeted highlyskilled and highly-valued employees with their reskilling and upskilling strategies, which is a major cause for concern. As AI and augmented reality technologies will force workers to perform progressively more complex cognitive tasks, how do we make sure we have a sufficient pool of talented workforce for the new types of jobs? What can businesses, governments and individuals do to ensure a smooth labour market transformation?

Governments can enhance talent development through a reform of education systems, redrafting school curricula, teacher training, reinvention of vocational training, and introducing funding for ongoing education. But ultimately, effective initiatives to prepare human labour for this new era will be best achieved through partnering with not only educators and social institutions but also with major technological firms, which have both the know-how and capacity to contribute to the training. Finally, at the individual level, workers will have to take responsibility for their lifelong learning and career

Individuals who want to “ succeed in the best and wellremunerated jobs in the future labour market should have both strong technical as well as social skills. In an effort to close the impeding skills gap and support workforce redeployment, companies should provide training for their employees to keep up with the desired skills and expertise. Yet, rapid pace of technology makes jobs and skills outdated in only a few years. Therefore, in the long-term, all stakeholders will have to move towards an increasingly agile lifelong learning culture. There is a window of opportunity for employers to improve the quality of already existing and newly emerging jobs, utilise new technologies to boost economic value creation and augmenting workers’ skills allowing them to perform new high-value added work tasks. But in order to reap the beneﬁts from disruptive technologies, business leaders must formulate such workforce strategies for re-training and upskilling, which are inclusive of all employees across the whole working spectrum. Furthermore, they could introduce talent strategies using workforce-planning tools and promote intraand inter-industry collaboration creating talent pipelines and enhancing cross-industry talent mobility. Moreover, company leaders should play a pivotal role in guiding individuals whose skills need to be developed or updated. In fact, both companies and governments need to clearly communicate and encourage workers to update their skillsets while

In this photo a sign promotes online and home delivery of groceries at a Walmart Supercenter in Houston. AP Photo/David J. Phillip, File

development. Most importantly, it is vital for all workers to acquire ‘tech fluency’ regardless of profession, which is a basic level of technology knowledge required for succeeding in the technology-driven economy. To be able to align with evolving work requirements over a longer period of time, people need to keep learning through their entire life – to learn and update not only technical skills, but also the soft skills. As the Fourth Industrial Revolution inescapably unfolds, all stakeholders involved - whether business leaders, workers or public institutions - have to take action in order to make the future of work a bright place for all. ■

GLOBSEC MAGAZINE ⊲ 17

IN DEPTH ⊲ FROM ONLINE BATTLEFIELD TO LOSS OF TRUST?

Eric Milovac of Minnesota holds his phone as he waits for a decent Internet connection at the Pokemon Go Fest in Chicago Erin Hooley/Chicago Tribune via AP

FROM ONLINE BATTLEFIELD TO LOSS OF TRUST? PERCEPTIONS AND HABITS OF YOUTH IN 8 EUROPEAN COUNTRIES Katarina Klingova, Research Fellow, GLOBSEC Dominika Hajdu, Project Coordinator, GLOBSEC The boundaries between the “online” and “offline” world have blurred for great number of people who actively use the internet on a daily basis. This is especially the case for young people – being raised with cell-phones in their hands, social media platforms and technology have become an integral part of their daily lives. When hunting virtual Pokémons in parks and streets, having online Avatars, or attempting to take selﬁes with sharks or at tops of skyscrapers, young people

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have been pushing the limits of possibilities and blurring the lines between reality and the online environment. Having one account on social media is not enough, since each platform has its specific purpose. YouTube for music, entertainment or learning; Facebook for being in the loop on what events are happening around; Instagram for checking what a friend was doing during the day. We live in the information world. Internet access equals the access to information – access to a multitude of sources and opinions, and to communities and people living all around the world. How does the constant flow of an unprecedented amount of information influence the young? Do younger generations

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FROM ONLINE BATTLEFIELD TO LOSS OF TRUST? ⊲ IN DEPTH have enough knowledge and the will to consume information? Do young people consume information, or are they being consumed by the data? Who is the master and who is the pawn? The publication written by Dominka Hajdu and Katarina Klingova from the Strategic Communication Programme of GLOSBEC Policy Institute seeks to shed some more light onto these questions. These are the key ﬁndings of unique qualitative data from focus groups discussions in eight European countries:

GENERAL DISTRUST IN THE MEDIA Most of young people in the 8 countries analysed seem not to trust the media. They also claim to be always doublechecking information before they believe a particular story to be true. When searching for information, the young prefer

While the young in all “ countries are aware of information-manipulating and intentional spreading of disinformation, not all of them clearly and fully understand the scope of their impact. and use predominantly online sources - websites, news applications or social media platforms over traditional media as TV, radio or newspapers. News apps were a popular source of information for the young in a number of countries.

DOMESTIC MEDIA MOSTLY PERCEIVED AS BIASED AND UNDER POLITICAL INFLUENCE While lack of trust in the media was common for young people in all the surveyed countries, we observe some differences in the perception between domestic and foreign media. In general, the young were aware of political attempts to control domestic media and tended to have more trust for media with foreign ownership, which in their eyes decreases the possibility of being biased towards certain political parties or governments. The Czech Republic was the only country in which the public broadcaster was perceived as credible and independent. The foreign media was seen sceptically only by young Poles who doubted their ability to report accurately about domestic situation in their country.

AWARE OF DISINFORMATION, BUT NOT FULLY UNDERSTANDING ITS SCOPE While the young in all countries are aware of informationmanipulating and intentional spreading of disinformation, not all of them clearly and fully understand the scope of their impact. Awareness was mainly demonstrated by young peoples’ claims to double- or even triple-check information before deciding whether something is true of false. Mindfulness of clickbait headlines and avoiding stories with sketchy titles was also mentioned. However, the spread of intentionally misleading or biased information was not readily associated with foreign subversive efforts by external actors. On the contrary, disinformation and “fake news” were predominantly perceived solely in terms of actors seeking economic proﬁt. In many countries though, the young are acquainted with information manipulation and propaganda from political representatives. This was noted especially in Hungary, Serbia, Montenegro and Bosnia and Herzegovina. In addition, in Bosnia and Herzegovina, ethnicity plays an important role in the perception of particular media as objective and trustworthy. It was also the only country where hate speech was raised as a common issue lacking effective countermeasures. “You can tell one story in very different ways. It matters where you put the emphasis as it can alter your narrative.”

DISTRUST IN THE SYSTEM LEADS TO PASSIVITY Another ﬁnding is that young respondents lack interest in actively participating in building up their societies. In some countries, we observed inherent distrust of media or politics. This distrust often leads the young to search for “alternative” news sources and narratives explaining political situations offered by disinformation outlets. The respondents generally claimed not to actively report disinformation on social media. What is more, Macedonian participants argued that ignoring disinformation reduced their reach. Seeing how easily false news spread on social media, the participants claimed not to perceive social media platforms as trustworthy sources of information. Some admitted to being purposely cutting the time they spend on these platforms in order to limit their exposure to such content.

DIFFERENT LEVELS OF MEDIA LITERACY: SELF-PERCEPTION VS. REALITY A significant difference between the young participants from 8 countries was observed in their media literacy and understanding of how information can be manipulated.

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IN DEPTH ⊲ FROM ONLINE BATTLEFIELD TO LOSS OF TRUST? A negative outlier among the countries were the young people from Bosnia and Herzegovina, who thought that videos or images give more credibility to information than a text vulnerable to manipulative interpretations. While the spread of disinformation via textual content is indeed easily achievable, image modiﬁcations and video adjustments to spread false or manipulated information is similarly common, with many examples to be found online. This notion was pointed out by young Serbs, who observed that modiﬁed videos are the hardest to verify and clearly identify whether they portray accurate information.

to stay in touch with their peers, while the preferences of social media platforms changed with age and type of content young people shared online. While social media were still mentioned as an important source of information, the young generally claimed not to trust these platforms.

FRIENDS AND FAMILY AS STRONG OPINION-SHAPERS

DECLINE OF FACEBOOK, RISE OF MESSENGER

Friends and family members seem to play an important role in information veriﬁcation. The respondents often claimed that if they did not know whether to trust a particular piece of information, they relied on the opinions of their friends/ peers or family members. In all countries, information shared or commented on by friends was considered a respectable source for young people. Often, they admitted they started paying attention or attributing relevance to a piece of news only after seeing that it had been shared by their friends. In addition, the young people in Serbia claimed to follow comments and online discussions to understand public perception.

Facebook has been among the most widespread social media platforms among the young since its enormous boost in popularity in early 2010’s. However, the discussions showed a decline of usage among younger respondents due to several factors.

DISINFORMATION NARRATIVES OVERLAP Narratives supporting anti-immigration, anti-European Union, anti-NATO, and anti-multicultural sentiments as well as the notion of “Western decadence” are commonly spread in all 8 countries surveyed. Disinformation narratives attempt to inﬂuence the geo-political orientation of these countries and stir distrust towards NATO and the EU. Furthermore, disinformation narratives utilise socio-economic, historical, or ethnic divisions as well as other vulnerabilities of these societies. In Poland, we observe anti-Ukrainian narratives; in Serbia, nationalistic narratives, and narratives supporting Orthodox values and culture are dominant and inﬂuential; in Bosnia and Herzegovina, disinformation narratives exploit ethnic divisions and inherent distrust among the ethnic groups.

THE INTERNET IS THE YOUNGSTERS’ BEST FRIEND Young people in all countries admitted spending several hours a day online. Google as a search engine and Facebook, Facebook Messenger, Instagram and YouTube as social media platforms serve both as an important source of information and a space for social interaction. Activity and presence on these platforms link to all aspects of their lives - their work, school, and free time. Accounts on several social media platforms were a natural means for the interviewed young

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Young people were most interested in content that is funny and relates to their interests. The most common topics of interest mentioned are lifestyle, entertainment, sports, music and art. Many, however, also claimed to be using online sources to educate themselves and get practical tips.

as a search engine “ Google and Facebook, Facebook Messenger, Instagram and YouTube as social media platforms serve both as an important source of information and a space for social interaction. Facebook was mostly named as one of the primary sources of information about events, organisations and current issues. For many, it is considered a necessity - the young use it as a tool for the exchange of information connected with their school or work and as a platform for study groups. Paradoxically however, they often claimed either not to — or very rarely — share content on Facebook, while maintaining that they receive information from their actively posting friends. The respondents more readily admitted to receiving, but not distributing information. This further confirms the importance of friends and family in opinion-shaping and information consumption. “We have usually one friend who regularly shares [information] on Facebook.” Facebook Messenger was identified as the number one platform for the communication and exchange of information.

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FROM ONLINE BATTLEFIELD TO LOSS OF TRUST? ⊲ IN DEPTH

In this photo a child holds his Amazon Echo Dot in Kennesaw, Ga. AP Photo/Mike Stewart, File

Moreover, many participants stated they preferred to share news directly to friends through Messenger rather than posting things online on their walls. In fact, in some countries, Messenger was named as the most used social media platform. Increased commercialisation of Facebook and the lack of transparency of its algorithms have signiﬁcantly decreased the trust of the respondents towards this platform. Increasingly negative perceptions by young people towards Facebook were observed: being aware of “information bubbles” and the negative echo-chambers it can create, they are consciously — and increasingly — limiting their time spent on Facebook. Many participants in the discussions considered Facebook to be obsolete and criticised it for being “over-advertised” in terms of having too many ads appearing on the wall as posts, as well as in the videos. As a consequence, many young people in all countries characterized themselves as “passive” actors on the platform, often even considering leaving it altogether. “I do not use Facebook because it has too many advertisements, and things which do not interest me are constantly appearing.”

PREFERRING “REFRESHING AND PRIVATE” INSTAGRAM Instagram was generally the ﬁrst choice among younger high school students. Many prefer Instagram to Facebook due to its simplicity and clarity compared to the latter’s complicated algorithms and commercialisation. Instagram was often

considered refreshing and innovative, and praised for its less politicised nature. In all countries, Instagram’s top topics were mostly connected to lifestyle and everyday life of public personalities and friends. Related to that, the platform was often regarded as more private, where one can control what and whom to see relatively easily. The perception of Instagram was, however, not unified across the countries surveyed. Czech respondents were not favourable to it. According to their perception, its options and usability for multiple purposes were too limited. On the other hand, young Macedonians preferred Instagram to Facebook due to its simplicity. Young Hungarians thought of it as a more private and intimate social media platform. In Bosnia and Herzegovina and Macedonia, having an Instagram account was perceived as a hobby. Some young Serbs reported to have up to 3 Instagram proﬁles with each having a different audience and purpose. Young Slovaks especially liked the short expiration time of Instagram Stories, which they often use to publish most intimate information and moments.

FUN AND EDUCATION WITH YOUTUBE While music and entertainment are predominant reasons why young people watch YouTube, this platform plays an important role in self-education in all countries analysed. This article is an excerpt from the publication From Online Battleﬁeld to Loss of Trust? Perceptions and habits of youth in 8 European countries. You can read or download the whole publication here. ■

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OP-ED ⊲ CAN EU’S CARBON NEUTRALITY SAVE PARIS IN KATOWICE?

CAN EU’S CARBON NEUTRALITY SAVE PARIS IN KATOWICE? Dominik Hatiar, GLOBSEC Young Leaders Forum 2018 Alumni

Despite being a landmark diplomatic treaty in tackling climate change, Paris Agreement’s central weakness is the absence of sanctions against noncomplying or disobedient countries. This is why the world held its breath when the US announced its departure from Paris, due to fears this would destroy the agreement altogether. At the time, diplomatic efforts and stronger decarbonisation ambitions of the European Union were crucial in convincing major industrializing economies not to follow the US. 22 ⊲ GLOBSEC MAGAZINE

Paris was saved. China, EU and Canada jointly doubled down on their commitment. However, the stakes are high again as the world meets in Katowice at the 24th Conference of the Parties (COP24) under the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC). Although the Paris agreement was reached in 2015, the deadline for concluding negotiations on its rulebook is Katowice. The key bone of contention is to agree upon mechanisms controlling differentiation of the pace of decarbonisation of parties to the treaty, depending on their economic affluence and responsibility of former emission. This “rulebook” is going to be the foundation of a global energy regulatory regime of the future.

LONG TERM DISASTERS ARE WITHIN SIGHT Our planet has warmed more than one degree Celsius since the Industrial Revolution. The goal of the Paris accord is to limit this increase to 2°C and make best efforts for restricting it to 1.5°C. However, according to the recent IPCC report the world is on course to more than a 3°C warming by 2100. This would lead to irreversible impacts, such as extinction of species, rainforests, coral reefs, meters high sea rises,

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CAN EU’S CARBON NEUTRALITY SAVE PARIS IN KATOWICE? ⊲ OP-ED

Superintendent Jackie Ratliff, a coal miner, holds coal running through a processing plant in Welch, W.Va. A federal report says Americans are using less coal this year than at any time since Jimmy Carter’s presidency _ despite the Trump administration’s efforts to revive the country’s coal industry. AP Photo/David Goldman, File

disappearance of coastal cities, mass migration caused by depopulation of the Sub-Saharan Africa and Persian Gulf or permanent draught in Europe.

EUROPE OWNS THE CLIMATE PROBLEM The EU28 today accounts for less than 10% of carbon dioxide which is scorching the planet. However, if we take the historical cumulative emission perspective, EU is responsible for 40% of all CO2 emitted in the atmosphere between 18502011. Europe’s large role in causing climate change creates an outsize responsibility to solve it. EU28 leaders are determined to honour and drive the accord’s implementation. EU’s most meaningful climate ambition was recently unveiled by the European Commission’s new 2050 energy and climate strategy. It proposes to ramp-up Europe’s 2050 decarbonisation target to full carbon neutrality as a ﬁrst major economy in the world. Getting to this goal in Europe within 30 years is a signiﬁcant challenge requiring strong public policies and market-forming business strategies.

NEED FOR NEW, ROBUST POLICIES There is a real risk that carbon neutrality becomes yet another loose target in EU’s climate policy architecture. The plethora of binding, non-binding and indicative targets for CO2 emissions, renewables or energy efficiency for 2020,2030 and 2050 now needs to be supplemented with stronger technology deployment policies. Climate progress in Europe’s largest countries is waning. Germany is on track to widely miss its 2020 emissions target and about to delay its much-needed coal phase-out to 2038. Only days before opening the COP24 conference in Katowice, Poland announced coal will remain core part of Poland’s energy mix beyond 2040. France was forced to drop a plan for incentivizing clean mobility through a fuel tax increase after country-wide protests of the so-called Yellow Jackets movement. Although Europe reduced its emission by 23% from 1990 levels, its emissions proﬁle has never been fully decoupled from economic growth. Despite improving penetration of renewables, Europe’s current economic recovery causes increasing CO2 emissions two years running. A number of

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OP-ED ⊲ CAN EU’S CARBON NEUTRALITY SAVE PARIS IN KATOWICE? studies (Barrett et al., 2013; Davis et al., 2010; Peters et al., 2011) also show that a share Europe’s CO2 reductions from 1990 are the result of displacement through imported carbon intensive goods.

RESPONSIBILITY TO STEP UP Credible climate leadership needs to be built on results rather than pledges. At the European Council in Sibiu in March 2019, heads of state need to marshal the necessary political will behind the proposed climate neutrality target. The fact that only handful of EU-28s endorsed illustrates the scale of the political challenge. However, there is reason for guarded optimism when looking at the technologies we have available already today. Some are already being widely deployed, others are yet awaiting their demonstration at scale. The new 2050 strategy introduces seven technological building blocks for carbon neutrality that could be benefit from new deployment policies. These include the recycling in the circular economy, energy efficiency, electrification with renewables or clean mobility. However, it is for the first time the EU shifts its attention also to the high hanging decarbonization fruits.

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Climate progress in Europe’s largest countries is waning.

Photo shows a gas production facility at Ras Laffan, Qatar

INDUSTRIAL CLIMATE ACTION IS THE MISSING LINK The world has seen very little climate action in terms of electrifying industrial sectors like steel, refining, cement, aluminium, waste incineration, hydrogen or pulp and paper production. For example, cement accounts for as much as 5% of global CO2 emissions. What more, global demand for these carbon intensive industrial products is set to grow by 50% by 2050. However, these sectors are technologically almost impossible to fully electrify. International competition also means that costs of all other decarbonization solutions available, such as carbon-free hydrogen or Carbon Capture and Storage (CCS), are constrained by the need to remain competitive in global markets. Unless Europe creates markets for deployment of these existing solutions, carbon neutrality will not become reality in developed and industrializing economies. The no-regret step would to adopt public procurement standards, subsidies or tax breaks for clean steel and cement. Higher carbon prices in the EU ETS could further incentivize these technologies. Resulting rapid diffusion of new technologies would future-proof Europe’s industrial jobs and drive innovation in areas where it is needed the most.

WHAT FUTURE FOR GAS? Although the coal to natural gas switch in the US and UK have led to dramatic emission decreases in these countries, the European Commission predicts its gradual phase out

AP Photos/Maneesh Bakshi, File

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CAN EU’S CARBON NEUTRALITY SAVE PARIS IN KATOWICE? ⊲ OP-ED

Heads of the delegations react at the end of the ﬁnal session of the COP24 summit on climate change in Katowice, Poland AP Photo/Czarek Sokolowski

between 2030 and 2050. By 2050, gas needs to become totally renewable through biogas or carbon-free through its conversion to hydrogen with carbon capture and storage. The EU’s upcoming 2020 gas market reform should spearhead this transition.

In this area, the EU could build a global coalition of zero deforestation countries and promote zero-deforestation products in its internal market.

NO REASON FOR DESPAIR FIGHTING DEFORESTATION Photosynthesis is part of the climate solutions in its ability to offset unabated carbon. Forests are crucial allies in capturing

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Europe’s current economic recovery causes increasing CO2 emissions two years running

Industrial climate action, natural gas decarbonisation and reforestation are priority areas where European governments can step up their policy actions. They are no silver bullets, but still play an insignificant role in EU’s decarbonisation repertoire. The author wishes to disclaim that the presented opinions are personal and do not necessarily represent any official standpoint pertaining to the organization he represents ■

anthropogenic CO2. Deforestation not only deprives us of this effect, it also creates emissions because when trees are felled, they release into the atmosphere the carbon they store. However, with the planet losing 25 million acres of forests every year, we are depriving ourselves of a crucial carbon abatement solution. Deforestation on its own today causes 10% of worldwide emissions – more than all of the world’s road transport.

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HISTORY CHAPTER ⊲ IMPORTANCE OF EIGHT IN HISTORY

Welding candles on the SNP Square in light installation on the occasion of the 100th anniversary of the Czechoslovak Republic (Czechoslovakia). Photo: SITA/Diana Černáková

IMPORTANCE OF EIGHT IN HISTORY Zuzana Podracká, Project Coordinator, GLOBSEC

In this photo a couple kisses by an installation which his part of a multimedia exhibition that marks the 100th anniversary of the creation of Czechoslovakia, in Prague, Czech Republic. AP Photo/Petr David Josek

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The year 2018 marks a hundred years since the first independent Czechoslovak state emerged out of the postWorld War I ruins of the Austro-Hungarian Empire. The anniversary celebrations have offered both nations an opportunity to reflect on a century-long search for their identity; a search that included several pivotal moments taking place in years ending with number 8. 1918, creation of the first independent state of Czechs and Slovaks. The Munich Agreement of 1938 that partitioned the interwar state into a Third Reich controlled Protectorate of Bohemia and Moravia, and a Third Reich collaborator Slovak state. The socalled ‘Victorious February’ of 1948 – the beginning of forty years of communist rule. The Prague Spring of 1968. The Velvet Revolution of 1989; the one key exception to the ’8’ rule. The parliamentary elections of 1998 that formally ended the era of Mečiarism, and finally, the 2018 wave of protests for a ‘polite‘ Slovakia that brought thousands of people to the town squares all around the country. The meaning of each of these is or will be a major area of study in itself – but what elements do they have in common? What is it about Slovak history and ‘the year 8’? Most of these events have been to a large extent defined by forces that went far beyond the national interests of Czechs and Slovaks themselves. The 1918 dream of a common state became a reality largely due to the Western powers‘ support

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IMPORTANCE OF EIGHT IN HISTORY ⊲ HISTORY CHAPTER

for an “island of democracy in the middle of a totalitarian sea.”1 Mere 20 years later, that dream was brought to an end by those same Western powers sacrificing Czechoslovakia to Hitler’s aggression; an act epitomised by Neville Chamberlain triumphantly taking the Munich agreement partitioning Czechoslovakia back to London as proof that “a peace for our day” had been saved. That the history was about to prove him as wrong as he could have been offered really no consolation at all. By the end of World War II, Czechoslovakia came slowly but surely under the Soviet sphere of influence, with the involvement of Soviet leadership sealing the fate of communism in Czechoslovakia in more ways than one. The post-war political battle was first won by the Communist party of Czechoslovakia in 1948 through a mixture of Sovietsupported grassroot party activism and political pressure. In 1968, the battle for the political face of Czechoslovakia was won at the cost of socialism losing its human face through the suppression of the Prague Spring and the subsequent normalisation. And finally, Gorbachev’s decisions to do away with the Brezhnev doctrine and leave satellite states to their own devices can certainly be seen as one of the key factors contributing to the fact that the Velvet Revolution of 1989 resulted not in another ‘brotherly assistance‘, but in the collapse of the Czechoslovak communist regime. And yet, whilst to place the element of responsibility for the course of all these events solely on the shoulders of the Czechoslovak politicians and populations would be both incorrect and unfair, to hold on to an idea that there were no choices to be made that could have altered the course of those events is certainly just as damaging. The leading Czechoslovak politicians kept the first Czechoslovak

McDermott, K. Communist Czechoslovakia, 1945-89. A Political and Social History. (London, 2015), p. 5.

Republic on a democratic course amid the neighbouring countries heading towards right-wing authoritarianism with a sense of purpose. Disregarding the question of political and administrative arrangement between the different nationalities that formed the common state (which in a certain way contributed towards predominantly German areas of the Czech Republic as well as some of the Slovak political leaders choosing to side with the Third Reich) was sadly also a choice, albeit perhaps a less conscious one. The events of 1948 and 1968 were in no small part defined by the choice of certain Czechoslovak politicians to side with the Soviet leadership, out of principle or political ambition. Conversely, the choice of many students, workers, artists, academics and politicians too - to put their career and even life on the line has time and again brought the two nations closer to the ideals of liberalism, democracy and humanness of the first Czechoslovak Republic. These are lessons we continue to return to. One more aspect is worth noting. Though the politicians declaring Czechoslovakia into existence in 1918 in many ways stood for the same broad ideals as those gathering on town squares hundred years later, every passing generation has come to the battle armed with a different set of expectations, shaped by and for a different world. A key thing that has changed over the course of ‘the Czechoslovak century‘ is the ever increasing role of Czech and Slovak populations, rather than just politicians, in leading the democratic fight. 1918 went down in history thanks to a handful of enlightened politicians; 2018 will go down in history due to a handful of determined students AND thousands of people that chose to take the same principled stand. The importance of the political representation in taking the society forward remains unchanged, but the power of the popular will, and the popular will to use that power is both a testament to how far we’ve come and a reminder that we all have a choice. Let’s make sure that when the next ‘year 8’ comes around, we all choose, and choose in a way that will allow history to judge us favourably. ■

In this photo visitors view a multimedia exhibition that marks the 100th anniversary of the creation of Czechoslovakia, in Prague, Czech Republic. AP Photo/Petr David Josek

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EU INSIGHT ⊲ THE FUTURE OF EURO-AREA GOVERNANCE

European Commission President Jean-Claude Juncker, left, and European Council President Donald Tusk, right, speak with Austrian Chancellor Sebastian Kurz during a round table meeting at an EU summit in Brussels. AP Photo/Francisco Seco

THE FUTURE OF EURO-AREA GOVERNANCE Ulrich Brasche, Professor, Technische Hochschule Brandenburg

DIVERGING VISIONS OF THE EU The process of European integration never reached a consensus on ﬁnality. Two opposing visions still prevail: An “ever closer Union” leading to ‘United States of Europe’ versus an inter-governmental alliance of sovereign nation states à la de Gaulle. Over time and treaty-by-treaty a mixture of those two evolved. Furthermore, the peoples of the EU are divided over sharing risk and resources versus relying on national responsibility and efforts. Burden sharing seems to be acceptable for the latter group if and only if they gain control over political conduct and performance of the ﬁrst group – this ‘conditionality’ however, infringes on national sovereignty and is rejected therefore. Those differences materialise especially when it comes to money. Re-distribution even at a very low scale, as provided by the EU-budget or as foreseen in the Banking Union, is contested by potential donor countries and defended by potential receiving countries. Any new ideas about Euro-area governance are assessed for a change of control over money and re-distributive side-effects.

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FISCAL GOVERNANCE AND MAASTRICHT 1.0 When adopting the common currency, the Euro, the member states forego two powerful tools for influencing the pace of their economies: Monetary policy and the exchange rate. Slow growth or even recessions, asymmetric economic shocks and systemic risks in the banking industry no longer can be tamed by a lower prime interest rate, by devaluing the currency or by using the Central Bank as “Lender of last resort”. So two other tools are expected to support the economy: Migration of unemployed workers and fiscal policy, i.e. deficit-based spending of the public budget à la Keynes. Since migration was and is low in and between the “old” member states, this option isn’t given in reality. National fiscal policy is the only tool available at the hands of each member state. Deficit spending however, can be used only if the state is credit worthy in international financial markets – if the debt burden is too high already, the cost of credit will rise to unsustainable levels and the state may become illiquid and in the end bankrupt. One member’s fiscal trouble will spill over into other member states, which might feel obliged to bail-out the state in trouble. The expected “help from friends” could undermine fiscal discipline and lead to “moral hazard”.

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THE FUTURE OF EURO-AREA GOVERNANCE ⊲ EU INSIGHT

One of the brilliant “ achievements of the EU is the Banking Union, which was created quickly as a response to the ﬁnancial crisis.

EU ﬂags ﬂy at half staff outside the headquarters of the EU in Brussels. AP Photo/Alastair Grant

The Maastricht Treaty (1992) introduced the Euro as a common currency, while fiscal policy stayed national. All members promised to limit public deficit and debt and a bailout by other members was excluded. A supervision of public budgets by the European Commission with fines as last resort was agreed upon. The simple rules of deficit and debt limits (3%, 60%) morphed into an overly complex setting with many layers of EU-supervision over national budgets. Since an enforcement of the rules was and is technically and politically not feasible, the concept of Maastricht 1992 failed. Many countries of the Euro-zone would need an economic boost by deficit spending and at the same time couldn’t spend more on credit, because they were too deep in red already.

DOES THE EURO-ZONE REALLY NEED NEW ECONOMIC GOVERNANCE? Insufficient growth and high unemployment in many member states after the ﬁnancial crisis broke in 2008 triggered the debate on “completion of the euro-zone”. But what are the additionalities, that would make this currency union complete? The ideas are manifold and rarely made clear and explicit enough. A radical answer is ‘Maastricht 2.0’. Proponents suggest that the Maastricht setting – some

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EU INSIGHT ⊲ THE FUTURE OF EURO-AREA GOVERNANCE flexibility added – would make for a working concept of the Euro-area. In this view the missing elements are firstly the enforcement of already existing deficit and debt rules and secondly credible procedure for sovereign bankruptcy. The assumption is that rational financial markets would discipline spendthrift governments. The financial crisis demonstrated however, that financial markets don’t play this role sufficiently.

COULD CENTRALISATION OF FISCAL POLICY WORK? Some Euro-members suggest the instalment of a Euro-zone finance minister endowed with a substantial budget. This budget shall tame the business cycle and invest into projects of European public goods with European value added. The rationale for doing this on a common base instead on a national base is market failure in the case of public goods and insurance in case of adverse asymmetric shocks, hitting just some countries. The ﬁrst rationale is convincing, however, those projects can’t be timed along business cycle swings. The second rationale is less convincing, since the risk is not evenly distributed; e.g. Greece is more likely to need help than Denmark. In the end a Transfer Union in disguise might be created. The most serious objection is that most problems are not cyclical but structural. Those can be tackled by national policy only. The disappointing outcomes of ﬁscal policy at national levels might just be replicated on a European scale.

EU-WIDE UNEMPLOYMENT INSURANCE AND ’MORAL HAZARD’ Unemployment insurance and compensation payments still are fully national. How generous and how pro-active this policy should be is one of the hottest topics and has the potential of toppling governments. An EU-wide scheme could insure governments against unforeseen large payment obligations. This however could spare them the risk of annoying their electorate by placing a higher burden on recipients or tax payers (’moral hazard’). Again the likelihood of receiving insurance payments seems to be unevenly distributed between member states – resulting in a Transfer Union in disguise.

risk sharing”. A bank in resolution needs fresh capital during this process. This capital could over-reach the funds foreseen for this purpose so that the ESM (European Stability Mechanism) must step in. It could borrow in international capital markets and pass the money on as credit to the respective bank. Liability for the credit stays with the European taxpayer. Therefore, some governments want the ESM to step in only after approval by their national parliaments and under the condition that the receiving country accepts surveillance of its ﬁnancial conduct. These procedures might be much too slow for providing resources in due time.

ECB SHOULD BECOME THE LENDER OF LAST RESORT Least controversial is the need of a ’Lender of last Resort’ function provided by the ECB. Beyond written law this is in place already due to Draghi’s promise of “whatever it takes”. Rules and conditions for this function should be made law – despite the hurdle of unanimity.

CAN COMMON FISCAL GOVERNANCE BE DEMOCRATIC? The prominent right of parliaments in democracies is deciding on the budget - ‘No taxation without representation’ still rules. Therefore any transfer of power over todays or future taxpayer’s money needs approval of all national parliaments. The German Constitutional Court for example made this point ﬁrmly. Since the European Parliament is no substitute for national parliament, unconditional transfer of ﬁscal policy to the EU-level is not legitimate.

THE ROAD AHEAD Discussions on Euro-area governance are dominated by diverging visions of France and Germany. There might be minor – rather symbolic – steps towards deposit insurance and a small budget in 2019. Major steps towards a new framework of fiscal governance could be done by a new Treaty only. This is not to be expected soon. ■

BANKING UNION – RISK SHARING UNDER CONDITIONALITY? One of the brilliant achievements of the EU is the Banking Union, which was created quickly as a response to the financial crisis. The elements still missing and still contested are common deposit insurance and fiscal backstop for resolution of banks. Countries with troubled banks prefer a common pool for insuring deposits before cleaning nonperforming loans from the bank’s balance sheets. They hope for more trust in financial markets via the insurance. Quite the opposite position is taken by countries with rather healthy banks and well-endowed funds: “Risk reduction first – then

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Least controversial is “ the need of a ’Lender of last Resort’ function provided by the ECB. WWW.GLOBSEC.ORG

⊲ VISEGRAD NEWS

CENTRAL EUROPEAN UNIVERSITY QUITS HUNGARY (CZ) Czech Republic’s Prime Minister Andrej Babis, center, waits to deliver a speech to honor the victims of the Soviet-led invasion of Czechoslovakia in 1968 at a ceremony in Prague, Czech Republic. AP Photo/Petr David Josek

NUMBER OF FOREIGN WORKERS IN CZECH REPUBLIC INCREASES TO OVER 0.5M RADIO PRAHA, 28 NOV 2018

THE GUARDIAN, 3 DEC 2018 Central European University has announced it will leave Budapest for Vienna next year after a protracted legal and rhetorical battle with the Hungarian government, in what is the ﬁrst case of a major university being pushed out of an EU country. The university, which teaches in English and is regarded as one of the best in the region, has been in the crosshairs of the government of Hungary’s far-right prime minister, Viktor Orbán, for the past two years, in part because of its affiliation with George Soros, who founded it and is still on the board. “This is a dark day for freedom in Hungary, and it’s a dark day for academic freedom,” said CEU’s rector, Michael Ignatieff, a Canadian former politician, at a press conference in Budapest on Monday. CEU had given the Hungarian government until 1 December to sign an agreement that would give it a legal basis to operate in Hungary. Despite international pressure and the intervention of the US ambassador, the government made it clear it would not sign. ■

In this photo demonstrators hold posters as they protest against the efforts to close Central European University, as part of Prime Minister Viktor Orban’s plan to transform Hungary in Budapest, Hungary. Janos Marjai/MTI via AP, ﬁle

The number of foreigners working in the Czech Republic has more than tripled since the country’s accession to the European Union in 2004. At the moment, there are more than half a million foreigners working in the country, according to Czech Statistics Office data and the Ministry of Labour and Social Affairs. The largest group of foreign employees in the Czech Republic are unqualified workers from Eastern Europe, but a growing number of qualified employees from the north, west and south of Europe are also seeking employment in the country. On the contrary, the number of Vietnamese workers has dropped by 35 percent since 2008. During the four years following the Czech Republic’s entry to the EU, the number of foreigners working in the country had increased by 379,000. After the global financial crisis there was a slight drop, but since 2011 their numbers have been steadily increasing. The number of Slovaks working in the Czech Republic has more than tripled since 2004 to 125,000. ■

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VISEGRAD NEWS ⊲

Slovakian Prime Minister Peter Pellegrini, right, speaks with the media as he arrives for an EU summit in Brussels. AP Photo/Francisco Seco

SLOVAKIA BECOMES THE NEWEST - AND SMALLEST - COUNTRY TO FLY THE F-16 POPULAR MECHANICS, 4 DEC 2018 One of the smallest countries in Europe is set to become the latest country to buy the F-16 Fighting Falcon. Slovakia will soon operate the most advanced F-16 fighter in existence: the F-16V, or Block 70. As for Slovakia, the nation spend much of the 20th century as part of Czechoslovakia, a Warsaw Pact state allied with the USSR. After the fall of the Berlin Wall, Warsaw Pact and Soviet Union, the country split into two new countries, the Czech Republic and Slovakia. The latter suddenly inherited a pile of aging Cold War tech, took possession of 12 MiG-29 fighters, and started its own air force. Slovakia could have, like other smaller countries, elected to give up its fighter jets and focus on funding other military capabilities (New Zealand comes to mind.) A larger military and a small force of modern fighters will give the country more clout within NATO, something especially useful for a small country surrounded by larger, more powerful neighbours. ■

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⊲ VISEGRAD NEWS

PM MORAWIECKI: POLAND AMONG LEADERS IN FIGHTING GLOBAL WARMING POLISH RADIO, 4 DEC 2018 Speaking during the United Nations’ COP24 climate change conference in the southern Polish city of Katowice, Mateusz Morawiecki said: “I can proudly and without hesitation say that Poland is one of the leaders when it comes to measures undertaken to stop global warming.” He argued during a panel discussion that “this is evidenced by the results we have achieved in reducing emissions, in particular through increasing the forest cover and by supporting international climate negotiations.” He told international leaders at the conference that Poland “has made huge achievements” in becoming more energy efficient over the past 25 years. According to Morawiecki, Poland has embarked on one of Europe’s largest programmes to develop electromobility, or innovative, eco-friendly means of public transportation. Thousands of international decision makers were conducting negotiations at the UN climate change conference in the southern Polish mining city, amid warnings that the world was heading toward environmental disaster. ■

Michal Kurtyka, a senior Polish official chairing the negotiations, poses for a photo after adopting the ﬁnal agreement during a closing session of the COP24 U.N. Climate Change Conference 2018 in Katowice, Poland. AP Photo/Czarek Sokolowski

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POLICY PAPERS GYLF 2018 ⊲ DISINFORMATION IN WESTERN DEMOCRACIES

GLOBSEC YOUNG LEADERS FORUM 2018, POLICY PAPERS DISINFORMATION IN WESTERN DEMOCRACIES: ENHANCING CYBER DEMOCRACY TO GAIN CYBER SECURITYS To counter influence operations and the underlying components of disinformation and cyber-attacks effectively, governments should primarily focus on three measures. The state-led disinformation campaigns seek to erode trust in democratic institutions, governments and traditional media alike, and to raise questions about the larger societal contracts in our societies, and therefore governments need to focus on increasing societal resiliency, while at the same time setting new standards for tech-companies and international cooperation.

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TRANSPARENCY, TRUST, LEGITIMACY AND RESILIENCY As a new trend, governments are using attribution as a deterrence technique. But when exposing the adversary, Western democracies seem to be running the risk of getting accused of using the very same tactics – the so called ‘’Whataboutism’’ narrative, that underpins disinformation campaigns itself.

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DISINFORMATION IN WESTERN DEMOCRACIES ⊲ POLICY PAPERS GYLF 2018 example, were able to fend off information attacks targeted at their societies successfully primarily thanks to the high level of trust of citizens in their democratic institutions. Western liberal democracies have to be able to have an open transparent discussion about the steps they are going to take on the psychological dimension of disinformation campaigns.

PSYCHOLOGICAL DIMENSION OF CYBERSECURITY Many governments already have technologies in place that can identify and track trolls, and many phishing attacks can be neutralized with increased awareness. However, in the ﬁght against disinformation, technological solutions are not enough to combat the problem. As put by Alexander Klimburg, “attacking the body of cyber (the technical layers) is just a detour to attacking the mind (the human being)”. Counter-disinformation efforts should therefore be combined with a focus on the psychological dimension. Ultimately, the reason why disinformation is well received among some Western democracies is because there is audience for it. It is important to understand emotional sensitivities and vulnerabilities of the Western regional democratic populations. EU and NATO Funding should be directed at proper target audience analysis, to develop a better understanding of how societies absorb disinformation, what makes them susceptible, and which parts of the population are vulnerable. Goverments need to be able to identify the target audiences clearly, and provide them with (alternative) narratives and sources of information. To increase resiliency, Western governments should seek to enhance transparency of their counter-measures, by providing government validated facts about where the attacks and compromises have occurred in an overview published on a governmental agency site. The overview should be accompanied with government-led digital validation mechanism, such as those used by citizens to validate bank transfers. Such a mechanism will not only make the relevant government agencies accountable for the suffered breaches under their respective domains, but it will also give citizens the opportunity to follow the developments of government policies. Providing citizens with a government-led transparency platform will in turn increase the trust of their own citizens, and help governments secure legitimacy for government actions such as intelligence gathering activities, or content control restrictions, among others. The western democracies that have successfully been addressing trust as a factor in counter-disinformation approaches are those that understand resilience as underlining the relationship between citizens and their governments. This has proven to be crucial for long-term sustainable practices when it comes to counter-disinformation efforts. Sweden, Finland, Estonia, Germany and France, for

Second, it is important to address the gaps in knowledge and awareness. Our efforts should continue to focus on detection and exposure of disinformation techniques, to “inoculate the public by exposure”. This includes the acknowledgement that academics, media, civil organizations, governments as well as the private sector all have a role to play in exposing information warfare techniques. Concluding on the earlier mentioned resilience, media literacy and education is at the heart of everything when it comes to creating the cognitive resilience that will serve the average citizen as the ﬁrst base of defence. At schools, we educate the critical citizens and information consumers of the future. The need for education on media and on how to detect false information is increasing and becoming fundamental. Designing online courses on disinformation and introducing such education at an early level is important. A free media and disinformation course developed by the Centre for Media, Data and Society (CMDS) ahead of GLOBSEC this year, as well as the online game developed by Dutch media collective DROG provide good examples of such efforts. The same goes for computer science. We have to fundamentally change how we teach computer science, how to code responsibly, and how to detect vulnerabilities in the systems that underpins our daily functioning and tasks.

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POLICY PAPERS GYLF 2018 ⊲ DISINFORMATION IN WESTERN DEMOCRACIES

IMPROVING SOFTWARE SECURITY TO ENHANCE PUBLIC SAFETY Looking at the tech marketplace, we can see it delivering weak products, the well-known vulnerabilities of which have been exploited against companies as well as national critical infrastructures1. Clearly, there are still standards left to be established. A failing software could easily mean the hacking of people’s personal data or data belonging to governments, politicians and citizens, consequently eroding trust in our democratic institutions and processes. In the near future, the “Internet of Things” will bring this issue of quality control and reliability even deeper in our homes and daily life, as by 2021, 20 billion devices will be connected to the internet, many of them insecure2. Comparing the lack of standardization within software systems to the offline world, companies producing drugs, safety belts, or electric equipment are held to quality standards and liability regulations, and breaking such laws can lead to great economic losses or sanctions. For the moment, there is no equivalent for tech companies. It is high time to publicly frame the debate on software security as one of public safety. Improving software security is vital to prevent devastating cyberattacks against Europe and ensure the safety of our citizens. Some technology ﬁrms – Microsoft and Facebook among them – have recently signed a “digital Geneva Convention,” committing themselves to minimising the potential for damaging cyber-attacks3. Initiatives aimed at making the cyberspace safer and

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more stable are welcome, but setting security standards that companies have to meet in order to get access to the marketplace - together with holding these companies accountable - is the responsibility of governments. Given the stakes and past history of poor performance, only regulation can force tech and software companies to discuss liability issues, address social dilemmas, and ensure public safety. Nevertheless, regulation does not have to be heavy, allencompassing, and uniform, but should be incremental and flexible enough to keep R & D possible. An ambitious public-private partnership is necessary to improve software security. Following its recent role in setting the General Data Protection Regulation (GDPR)4 for data protection and privacy, the European Union is ideally placed to frame the software security debate as a public safety one and lead the way on ‘security by design’ by legislating to set software security standards. In the next 5 years, these would be voluntary ‘best practices’ (with the EU helping member states to comply), but could eventually become mandatory with noncompliance punished by significant fines (as with the GDPR) - possibly handled by the European Union Agency for Network and Information Security (ENISA).

ENHANCING INTERNATIONAL CYBER COOPERATION The adversaries’ use of influence operations will always remain a cat-and-mouse game, in which our adversaries tend to have the advantage, as it is easier for an adversary to focus and adapt their techniques to each state than it is

“Did you Adobe password leak? Now you and 150m others can check,” The Guardian, 7 November 2013, https://www.theguardian.com/ technology/2013/nov/07/adobe-password-leak-can-check “How coherent is EU cybersecurity policy?”, LSE Ideas, http://blogs.lse.ac.uk/europpblog/2018/01/16/how-coherent-is-eu-cybersecurity-policy/ “Facebook among tech ﬁrms to sign ‘digital Geneva convention’ “, The Guardian, 18 April 2018, https://www.theguardian.com/technology/2018/ apr/18/tech-ﬁrms-including-facebook-sign-up-to-digital-geneva-convention Official GDPR Portal, https://www.eugdpr.org/eugdpr.org-1.html

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DISINFORMATION IN WESTERN DEMOCRACIES ⊲ POLICY PAPERS GYLF 2018

Signiﬁcant Cyber Incidents Based on publicly available information on cyber espionage and cyber warfare, excluding cybercrime. Long-running espionage campaigns were treated as single events for the purposes of incident totals. Tallies are partial as some states conceal incidents while others fail to detect them. China Iran North Korea Russia United Kingdom United States Germany India Australia Japan South Korea Ukraine Israel France Rest of World 100

160 Number of Incidents

Offender

Victim

for NATO and EU nations to combinedly agree on possible countermeasures. And while the European Union provides its nations with guidelines for an ambitious public-private partnership, it cannot deter inﬂuence operations without best practices from NATO.

international law can be used as both weapon and a shield in the cyber domain. Just as the Hybrid CoE is a joint NATOEU project, so would cyber defence be at large. The lessons learned from a joint Hybrid/Cyber research project would be useful for both institutions.

The increasing use of cyber tools in inﬂuence operations will, however, require lessons learned from NATOs transborder responses, and thereby increased international institutional cooperation.

However, not only NATO and the EU and the military apparatus of their members have a role to play in cyber defence. A strong focus is being set on the role of industry. Partly by the EU to keep them accountable, but more so by NATO to focus on the positive contributions industry can bring. The NATO Industry Cyber Partnership (NICP) was put forward in 2014 at the Wales Summit, and since then it has been managed by the NATO Communications and Intelligence Agency (NCI Agency). Building forward on existing NATO initiatives, the partnership helps in building trust between NATO and the private sector and facilitates joint projects.

In the decade the NATO Cyber CoE operated the cyber domain, it has developed into a military domain of its own. The overview below shows the offensive cyber incidents since 2006. The CSIS overview “Signiﬁcant Cyber Incidents”5 is an ongoing project recording cyber attacks on government agencies, defence agencies and industry, or financial/ economic crimes. The accompanying report suggests that half of these incidents took place in the past three years, compared to the other half occurring between 2006 and 2015. Looking closer on the NATO – EU Cooperation, the focus of the Tallinn Manual on International Law could be combined with similar developing research of the joint NATO-EU “European Centre of Excellence for Countering Hybrid Threats”6 just across the Gulf of Finland, in Helsinki. Within literature on Hybrid Warfare, International Law is seen as a potential tool of war. Using the term Lawfare, a portmanteau of the words law and warfare, it explores how the legal system can be used to damage an adversary. Rather than having two centres develop research on the use of international law independently, there is a large potential gain in combining the two efforts in order to find where

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Both the Cyber CoE and the NICP are two examples of excellent cooperation initiatives in their own right. With NATO being a key player in both initiatives, it would make sense for it – likely through the NCIA - to take this integration further. The use of cyber tools in disinformation campaigns requires a whole-society approach, and NATO may be able to bring the key players together. In such a conglomerate, NATO would be the link to nations’ military apparatuses, while the Cyber (and potentially Hybrid) CoE would represent the link to academia, and NICP the link to the private sector. While a singular actor remains to have the advantage, stronger ties between different aspects of society and our international agencies may provide a bulwark, and the stalwart resilience our citizens require in the ﬁfth domain, which will become an increasingly used component of inﬂuence operations. ■

https://www.csis.org/programs/cybersecurity-and-governance/technology-policy-program/other-projects-cybersecurity https://www.hybridcoe.ﬁ/what-is-hybridcoe/

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POLICY PAPERS GYLF 2018 ⊲ THE FUTURE OF EUROPE WORKING PAPER

GLOBSEC YOUNG LEADERS FORUM 2018: THE FUTURE OF EUROPE WORKING PAPER What can be done to address the grievances that drive anti-European sentiments? EXECUTIVE SUMMARY Though not a new phenomena, anti-European sentiments are increasingly ﬁnding in-roads into mainstream political discourse within the European Union (EU). This paper highlights the heterogeneity of such drivers (internal and external; micro and macro; short-term, medium and long-term drivers; social, economic and political)1, by focusing on three

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cross-sectoral factors: the future of the social contract, a feeling of insecurity, and the dichotomy between the feelings of trust and frustration among citizens. The paper notes that these drivers are the causes of such anti-European sentiments and can be present in various intensity, or may be experienced differently within each of the EU Member States. We also acknowledge that the drivers are all too often genuine, and exploited by populist forces across EU-28. As the Dutch political scientist, Cas Mudde notes, ‘populists often ask the right questions but give the wrong answer’2. To this end, the paper argues that in order to address those sentiments it is necessary not to sit on the fence; to be proactive, not reactive; Critical but constructive, and willing to shape a positive future for the EU.

A non-exhaustive list of such factors can be is highlighted in the The Resistible Rise of Populism in Europe; European View Wilfred Martens Centre for European Studies 2016. Via https://www.martenscentre.eu/publications/european-view-resistible-rise-populism-europe C. Mudde, Populism isn’t dead. Here are ﬁve things you need to know about it. July 2017. Via https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2017/ jul/07/populism-dead-european-victories-centrists

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THE FUTURE OF EUROPE WORKING PAPER ⊲ POLICY PAPERS GYLF 2018

THE FUTURE OF THE SOCIAL CONTRACT European democracies have hit turbulent waters: the ﬁnancial crisis (2007), followed by the Eurocrisis (2009), the European migrant crisis (2015), and the UK vote to leave the EU (2016) have put pressure on the old model of the social contract between the state on the one hand and society on the other.3 These crises have eroded the societal trust in the political system and increased vertical tensions between the people and the state. This is a serious issue, as trust is widely considered a key precondition for the maintenance of a healthy social contract and democratic governance.4 Declining faith in government negatively affects its legitimacy, weakens its ability to carry out its functions (e.g. maintain order, defend national sovereignty, manage economic conditions, etc.), and leads to deterioration of social cohesion, justice and solidarity.5 Yet, maintaining this social contract has become increasingly difficult, as the malleability of modern societies has vastly decreased. Due to globalization, the state of national affairs

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have become largely dependent on the state of international affairs, as the nexus between the internal and external domain has become largely intertwined. 6 While the malleability, or reparability, of our environment goes down, it becomes increasingly difficult for national governments to meet their obligations as part of the social contract as we know it. Vertical tensions between the people and the state, stemming from the inability to meet such obligations, have increased over recent decades, as illustrated by the rise of populist sovereigntist political movements in Europe, such as Poland (Prawo i Sprawiedliwość), Hungary (Fidesz), and Switzerland (Schweizerische Volkspartei). Such parties tend to offer overly simple solutions to issues deﬁned by an increasingly complex international order.7 Their solutions generally include a rejection of globalization and the international liberal order as we know it, emphasizing the sovereignty of the nation-state.8 Unfortunately, in this increasingly complex environment, people seem to be willing to hand in prosperity for ﬁctive sovereignty in a globalized world, yearning for old, simpler times.

K. Sabeel Rahman, Reinventing the social contract. September 2016. Via http://rooseveltinstitute.org/wp-content/uploads/2016/09/RahmanNew-Social-Contract.pdf Tom van der Meer, “Political Trust and the “Crisis of Democracy” in Oxford Research Encyclopedia of Politics. January 2017. https://dx.doi. org/10.1093/acrefore/9780190228637.013.77 Robert D. Putnam, “Democracies in Flux: The Evolution of Social Capital in Contemporary Society” in Revisiting the European Social Contract, via https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/key/date/2013/html/sp130302.en.html Margiet Drent, Rosa Dinnissen, Bibi van Ginkel, Hans Hogeboom & Kees Homan, The relationship between externa land internal security. The Hague: Clingendael Institute. January 2015. Via https://www.clingendael.org/sites/default/ﬁles/pdfs/The%20relationship%20between%20 external%20and%20internal%20security.pdf Rob de Wijk, De nieuwe revolutionaire golf. Waarom burgers zich van hun leiders afkeren. Amsterdam University Press. 2017. Rosa Balfour, Janis A. Emmanouilidis, Catherine Fieschi, Heather Grabbe, Christopher Hill, Timo Lochocki, Marie Mendras, et al. Europe’s Troublemakers. The Populist Challenge to Foreign Policy. Brussels: European Policy Center, 2016. http://www.epc.eu/documents/uploads/ pub_6377_europe_s_troublemakers.pdf.

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POLICY PAPERS GYLF 2018 ⊲ THE FUTURE OF EUROPE WORKING PAPER

ON THE SENSE OF INSECURITY It looks that the rise of populism across Europe – and in the US – has much more to do with the sense of insecurity among the citizens than with any sort of a political re-orientation. The two most powerful sources of perceived insecurity have been the 2008 economic crisis on one hand, with its austerity programmes, rise in unemployment and a prevailing feeling that citizens are paying for the sins of a tiny financial elite; and the political crisis around the refugee challenge on the other hand, with solidarity between European states and towards asylum seekers put in question and many Europeans fearing that not only their jobs but also their culture and social cohesion are in danger. It actually doesn’t matter whether those fears were, quantitatively, justified. In the words of Ivan Krastev (‘After Europe’, 2017), ‘It is the fear of a collapsing moral order rather than one’s concrete situation that triggers an individual’s turn against foreigners (...) The success of Trump and others can best be explained as the ability to persuade voters that a certain line has been crossed’. Depending on the country, the economic or cultural fears proved more important. Still, from Germany and France to Italy, Austria and Sweden the sense of insecurity has had an important impact on the electoral choices of the voters. The mainstream was castigated for losing bonds with the people, and a heterogeneous group of populists from left and right was promoted in their replacement; in some cases (Italy) entering the government, in other serving as a destructive opposition. From this perspective, the idea of ‘l’Europe qui protége’, repeated by Emmanuel Macron, has in theory the potential of responding to the citizens’ sense of insecurity – both at the level of concrete economic and social policies, and when it comes to a general feeling that people’s dignity and their fears have finally been treated seriously. However, two big questions remain. Can the mainstream be credible and authentic in promising a response to people’s sense of insecurity? And then, can it actually respond to people’s fears without adopting as its own at least some controversial elements of the populist’s agenda – for example, bashing international trade or further restricting the migration policy? In the latter case – as has already happened in Denmark, the Netherlands, Austria, and Finland – populists would win by infecting the political mainstream with their virus, without the need to formally enter the government.

the uncertainty of the EU’s future to a basic question of trust in European institutions - or rather a lack thereof. However, a narrow focus on a lack of trust misses the point and will lead observers, policymakers and politicians to solutions that will be lacking in long-term effects. Currently, according to the Commission’s Spring 2018 Standard Eurobarometer, trust in the Union stands at 42% EUwide, versus 48% of EU citizens who tend not to trust the EU. While these numbers are not impressive, it is enlightening to compare them over time and with other political institutions. Today, trust in the EU is at its highest point since 2010. From 2012 to 2014, trust levels were even as low as 31%. Moreover, while trust in the EU is only 42%, national governments and parliaments do not fare better with a score of only 34%. Over time, EU-citizens consistently trust the EU more than they trust their national governments and parliaments. On the national level, a lack of trust in parliamentary or governmental institutions does not normally seem to lead to calls for the abolishment of the nation state. Why then should we assume that a lack of trust is the dominant factor in Eurosceptics’ calls for abolishing or leaving the European Union? Debunking the idea that Euroscepticism is solely a question of trust is important, because it forces one to look at other factors and consider other options aimed at tackling it. One such option might be that instead of ‘rebuilding trust,’ we should instead build a feeling of shared European identity that complements existing national or local identities and that legitimises the EU’s existence even when drops in institutional trust occur. Four years ago, Jean-Claude Juncker in his inaugural speech at the European Parliament set the tone for the further changes in the EU: ‘Either we succeed in bringing the European citizens closer to Europe — or we will fail”.9

THE DICHOTOMY BETWEEN TRUST AND CITIZENS’ FRUSTRATION Recent years have seen increased discussions about the future of the European Union fuelled by populism and Euroscepticism. In these discussions, some have reduced

9 Time for Action – Statement in the European Parliament plenary session ahead of the vote on the College, http://europa.eu/rapid/press-release_SPEECH-14-1525_en.htm

GLOBSEC MAGAZINE ⊲ 40

THE FUTURE OF EUROPE WORKING PAPER ⊲ POLICY PAPERS GYLF 2018 Nevertheless, latest political developments in the European Union have revealed that public’s trust in the EU, as in liberal democracy, is a serious challenge. Even though compared to previous years more Europeans are likely to say that their country has beneﬁted from the EU achievements10, the Brexit referendum, elections in France, Germany, Italy and in other countries have shown that citizens’ dissatisfaction and distrust are points of concern which affect not only further European integration but also countries’ domestic agendas. Given that the EU economy grew at its fastest pace in a decade last year11, citizens’ discontent shows that the need for a new model and strategy for the EU communication with citizens is evident. A prime example of failed attempts to recognize anxieties that people have illustrates opposition to TTIP, one of the most ambitious trade agreement in history, when policy makers started addressing citizens’ rational and irrational fears too little, too late.12

•

Be closer to where the citizens are. For majority of Europeans, Brussels is too far away from their kitchens. In order to bridge the gap between “Brussels bureaucrats” and regular citizens, the EU must show how European decision making process affects their daily lives and - most importantly - vice versa: how THEY can affect European decision making process. It is important to reach outside the bubble of expert discussions in the capital cities, organize more events and engage with people in the regions.

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Keep the message clear, simple and understandable. Relying on technical approach and explaining complicated procedures in documents doesn’t reach the wider audience and doesn’t convince.

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Take into account different backgrounds and historical contexts of European states and respect them. In order to understand the causes of rise of populist parties in each state, historical experience and socio-economic situation in the particular state should not be neglected. Labelling citizens’ with different perspective towards further European integration as “bad Europeans” or Eurosceptics, might bring opposite results. The diversity of European democracies should be respected,

•

Remain consistent in terms of European values. Main “faces” of the European Union must remain loyal to European family and its values in order to stay trustworthy in the eyes of European voters. Cases of representatives of European institutions re-electing persons who have committed national and international crimes do not add to the credibility of the Union.15

•

Some proposals already have been made on paper16 pointing out it is important that the EU implements its plans and lives up to promises given to its citizens. As stressed in Bratislava declaration, ”We need to improve the communication with each other – among Member States, with EU institutions, but most importantly with our citizens.” Even when better communication alone cannot solve all the problems in the European Union, it certainly can help citizens to understand the situation better. The current populism challenge could be perceived not only as an obstacle to overcome, but in positive terms also as an impetus for change. ■

RECOMMENDATIONS Against this background, support for European values cannot be rebuilt without tackling issues that raise public anger and fears, including migration, social security, and economic situation. However, strengthening its policy in these ﬁelds without making the achievements visible (and most importantly - understandable) would not bring any tangible results. Therefore, EU and liberal democratic forces should focus on substantially improving its communication and bridging the gap between European policy makers and citizens all over Europe. Even though there is no silver bullet for combating the rise of populism, shifts regarding some key communication components might improve situation in the longer term: •

Dismantle unrealistic election promises of populist parties which attract their voters with high demands and criticism while not providing any feasible plans of implementation.13

•

Address citizens’ concerns. According to surveys in Germany, 89 percent of Alternative for Germany (AfD) party voters chose this party because “Christian Democratic Union of Germany doesn’t take their concerns seriously” and only one third of respondents chose this party because they are convinced of the AfD’s election programme.14

10 Standard Eurobarometer 89, Spring 2018, European Commission, http://ec.europa.eu/commfrontoffice/publicopinion/index.cfm/ResultDoc/ download/DocumentKy/83548 11 Autumn 2017 Economic Forecast: continued growth in a changing policy context, https://ec.europa.eu/info/business-economy-euro/economicperformance-and-forecasts/economic-forecasts/autumn-2017-economic-forecast_en 12 Bluth, Christian. A Surplus of Anxiety: TTIP and Germany. https://www.bfna.org/research/a-surplus-of-anxiety-ttip-and-germany/ 13 Maximale Forderungen, minimaler Plan. SPIEGEL ONLINE, http://www.spiegel.de/wirtschaft/soziales/das-afd-wirtschaftsprogramm-erinnertan-donald-trump-kommentar-a-1169961.html 14 Sechs Grafiken, die den Erfolg der AfD erklären, Süddeutsche Zeitung, https://www.sueddeutsche.de/politik/afd-bei-bundestagswahl-sechsgrafiken-die-den-erfolg-der-afd-erklaeren-1.3681714 15 https://twitter.com/junckereu/status/976061272293871616?lang=de 16 Communication from the Commission to the European Parliament, the European Council and the Council, https://ec.europa.eu/commission/ sites/beta-political/files/communication-institutional-options-for-making-the-european-union-work-more-efficient_en.pdf WWW.GLOBSEC.ORG

POLICY PAPERS GYLF 2018 ⊲ WHAT CAN GOVERNMENTS AND CORPORATIONS DO

WHAT CAN GOVERNMENTS AND CORPORATIONS DO TO ENCOURAGE ENVIRONMENTALLY CONSCIOUS CITIZENS Martin Šebesta

IVA SVOBODOVÁ RETHINKING THE PRODUCT DESIGN

INCREASING PRODUCT’S LIFETIME PRODUCTS AS SERVICES, RIGHT TO REPAIR, LIBRARIES OF THINGS Products as services Governments can provide policy frameworks for treating products as services: product service systems. Decreasing taxes for increasing warranties over some period of time, or providing reduced taxes for product service systems, where the user would be paying for their use of the product and need not worry about the product’s lifetime. Long term rental programs from manufacturers may have a beneﬁt of increasing the life expectancy of products in use and thus reduce the impact of short-lived products on the environment. The right to repair for maintenance - right to be able to repair products Another way of prolonging the lifetime of products is to give citizens the right to repair, that is, the right to choose the repairer and the ability to repair products by themselves. This facilitates disclosure of all the necessary information to repair the product. By driving the prices of repair lower, it incentivises the manufacturers to create less faulty, longer living and easily repairable products. Libraries of Things In western countries, a new trend of “libraries of things” is arising, which could potentially have a greater impact if governments were involved. Not unlike what libraries do with books and other media, “libraries of things” give people access to things used in and around their houses at the fraction of the cost of an actual purchase. This aims for reduction in producing goods that are not in daily use and may create incentive for the companies to create more and better services that offer lending equipment instead of selling it. This idea should be tied to rethinking product designs as they go hand in hand.

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When it comes to defining sustainable production, many people focus on knowing the sources of materials their products are made of: Are they renewable? Can they be recycled? Other circumstantial questions come to mind too: What carbon footprint does the product shipping leave? What chemicals are used for processing? Solutions for these concerns are being discussed in various media and some brands even embrace them so much you can actually track every step in the production process to verify its sustainability. These efforts are undoubtedly admirable and should be an integral part of every new product design. Nevertheless, there are two characteristics of a sustainable product, brilliant in their simplicity, which seem to be overlooked by modern industry and should be encouraged by both customers and policy makers. Firstly, it is about quality. A quality product is durable, it does not wear out fast, and it is reliable. This means longer use. Secondly, products need to be designed to be easily repairable, as well as easy to maintain and update, and even easy to change in terms of their looks so as to keep up with ever-changing aesthetic trends. Producers should start to think of themselves more as providers of services connected to certain products. Products intentionally manufactured to break after some time need to be outlawed and producers offering spare parts and longer guarantees should be supported with incentives.

DOMINIK HATIAR DRIVING INDUSTRIAL CLIMATE ACTION AND PUTTING A PRICE ON EMISSIONS Plastics, chemicals, petrochemicals, industrial gases, steel, cement, aluminium are all core energy and emission intensive industrial products. Their production together accounts for nearly 30% of global CO2 emissions and this share is bound to increase dramatically as other, electrifiable sectors of the European economy decarbonize. However, unlike the power sector, many of these sectors still lack a credible decarbonization potential. Combined with economic growth

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WHAT CAN GOVERNMENTS AND CORPORATIONS DO ⊲ POLICY PAPERS GYLF 2018 and insufficient industrial climate action in the form of CO2 prices, total emissions gain an upwards trajectory as was the case in Europe in 2017. All of this underlines how difficult the deep decarbonization challenge is – Europe must reach netzero emissions by 2050 and negative emission after 2050. There are a number of variables which make the clean transition of heavy industries more difficult compared to the power or mobility sector. First, many of its products are traded in global markets where every variable cost extra makes one´s product less globally competitive. Second, dependency on these sectors is not evenly spread across the European Union. There are regions like Antwerp, Dunkirk, Le Havre, Fos-sur-Mer, Teeside, Ruhr or Rotterdam, which are fully dependent on these industrial activities. Any industrial downturn induced by lower products demand or higher CO2 prices would cause disproportion of jobs in these regions. It is therefore essential that governments start subsidizing in larger amounts technology development and deployment of industrial decarbonization solutions around hydrogen and Carbon Capture and Storage at a large scale before it is too late. Just as Europe spearheaded the deployment of renewables through subsidies during the last decade, it is now time to invest in solutions for the high hanging fruits of decarbonization where solutions are still lacking. CO2 tax at European borders might be necessary for some emission intensive industrial products, as suggested by President Macron, which could alleviate competitive disadvantages faced by European industries opting to decarbonize the production. Environmentally conscious citizens can help accelerate industrial climate action. Above all, they should hold governments accountable, asking them to create markets for decarbonized industrialized products. Just as Apple can commit to purchasing only (more expensive) renewable

electricity, we introduce a green product purchasing optionality also to consumers of steel, cement or chemicals. Such products will be initially expensive, but right policy frameworks can ensure they eventually become mainstream. After all, governments are in the business of creating new, socially beneﬁcial markets all the time.

JOHN SZABO RATINGS OF PORTFOLIOS The financialization of the global economy since the 1980s has rewritten power relations determining the trajectory of societal developments. The decisions taken on which project or corporation to finance recursively affects all of us. Institutions with the power to decide this are at the root of change; they can be pressured by shareholders to divest from certain technologies that are deemed non-preferable. We have recently witnessed a wave of such nature, with funds like prominent US universities’ endowments or the Government Pension Fund of Norway divesting from fossil fuels. Citizens need to unite to continue pressuring funds to commit to radical transparency on their investment decisions, following which action can be taken to force, preferring actions that support more sustainable practices. A portfolio rating system focusing on investment decisions’ sustainability should be introduced, and states, representing their citizens, need to pressure all firms to participate in such a rating scheme. Even non-financial firms would have to report on their investment decisions’ sustainability as we go forward. This could be a first step in a shift towards actions much needed to combat climate change. A carbon tax urgently needs to be introduced, while corporations should be relieved of their quarterly reporting requirements to make way for increasingly long-term practices. ■

GLOBSEC MAGAZINE ⊲ 43

CHATEAU BÉLA ⊲ GLOBSEC CHATEAU BÉLA CENTRAL EUROPEAN STRATEGIC FORUM 2018

GLOBSEC CHATEAU BÉLA CENTRAL EUROPEAN STRATEGIC FORUM 2018 One of the most signiﬁcant events organised by GLOBSEC each year is the Château Béla Central European Strategic Forum. Early this December, policymakers and leaders from Europe and the United states met in this three-day closed convening, where they tackled various important topics focused on the current foreign, economic and security policy challenges affecting the Euro-Atlantic region. The Euro-Atlantic community is aware of grave concerns in the international relations, where the multilateral order that has shaped international politics for more than seven decades is being questioned. In addition, there is the shock of Brexit, after which Europe seeks to ﬁnd a common vision for its future

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unity. With this in mind, the participants of this year’s Château Béla Forum tackled issues concerning the state of the West’s political institutions in the occurrent tide of populist politicians (acknowledging media literacy to be the key component in the ﬁght against disinformation and fake news), as well as EU’s shift in work rhythms toward accommodating differentiated multi-speed arrangements, and NATO’s engagement in the Middle East and North Africa. This year’s Château Béla Forum was also special in having celebrated its 10th anniversary. Throughout this period, it has built upon and contributed to GLOBSEC’s reputation for

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GLOBSEC CHATEAU BÉLA CENTRAL EUROPEAN STRATEGIC FORUM 2018 ⊲ CHATEAU BÉLA

facilitating fruitful and thought-provoking discussions. Even though Château Béla Forum is a high-profile convening, one of its most typical features is that it is held in an informal manner, applying the Chatham House Rule. This helps deepen the discussion and promote openness among the participants, the upshot of which is that the resulting outputs turn out being more applicable and effective; the limited number of invited participants playing a considerable role. Over the years, the list of participants has included Miroslav Lajčák, Gen. John Allen, Anne Appleabaum, Radek Sikorski, Sec. Michael Chertoff, Amb. Alexander Vershbow, Réka Szemerkényi, Damon Wilson, Philippe Étienne, Amb. Kurt Volker and many others. Guests are on occasion accompanied by their family members, which contributes to the pleasant informal environment where both old and new friends are met yearly. The Forum is organized in a historic château that gives it its name, situated in southern Slovakia near the Slovak-Hungarian border formed by the Danube River. This region is well-known to offer a great variety of appetising wines which gives the participants the option to enjoy wine tastings guided by vintners.

We believe the Château Béla 2018 was successful in addressing the most pressing challenges and contributed greatly to deﬁning the future we desire for our region and the world, and we look forward to welcoming future participants at this exclusive Forum. ■

GLOBSEC MAGAZINE ⊲ 45

QUIZ ⊲

QUIZ 1. Historically, the European project has developed along two tracks: that of deep comprehensive integration, and the track usually dubbed “multi-speed Europe.” The latter was proposed for the first time in the __________ by Euro enthusiasts wishing to speed up integration without having to make concessions to those countries that for various reasons were not ready for rapid changes. a) b) c) d)

1980s 1960s 1970s 1975

2. Fifth-generation wireless, or 5G, is the latest iteration of cellular technology, engineered to greatly increase the speed and responsiveness of wireless networks. 5G will also enable a sharp increase in the amount of data transmitted over wireless systems. It´s already been implemented in some parts of the world and it´s supposed to be available before the end of __________ in almost the entire world. a) b) c) d)

2018 2020 2019 2025

3. The White Paper presented by the European Commission on 1 March 2017 sets out possible paths for the future of Europe. How many scenarios for how the Union could evolve were drawn? a) b) c) d)

3 6 5 4

5. Which of these countries have passed controversial new immigration bill to attract foreign workers? The legislation is designed to attract “semi-skilled workers” across a range of industries where shortages are most severe, including construction, the hotel industry, cleaning and elderly care. a) b) c) d)

China Japan Germany United States

6. __________has been suggested as an alternative in case Theresa May’s Brexit deal is rejected. It is a compromise that has broad appeal to the pragmatic middle. It delivers a softish Brexit with a deal that preserves membership of the Single Market and keeps the union of the UK intact. a) a) b) c) d)

New Zealand Swedish Plus Finnish Plus Norway Plus UK Plus

7. Tesla is on pace to begin production at its factory in __________ in the second half of next year, said the representative of Shanghai government. Tesla is the world’s largest market for electric vehicles. a) b) c) d)

Japan China United States United Kingdom

4. __________has been elected as the successor to Angela Merkel as the leader of Germany’s Christian Democrats.

8. European Commission adopts a credible enlargement perspective for the Western Balkans countries. The Strategy clearly spells out that the EU door is open to further accessions when the individual countries have met the criteria. Which of these 6 Balkan countries launched accession talks with the EU ﬁrst?

a) b) c) d)

Annegret Kramp-Karrenbauer Stephan Albani Norbert Altenkamp Ursula Groden-Kranich

Kosovo Albania Serbia Montenegro 1.c, 2.b, 3.c, 4.a, 5.b, 6.c, 7.b, 8.d

President Donald Trump with China’s President Xi Jinping during their bilateral meeting at the G20 Summit. AP Photo/Pablo Martinez Monsivais

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From left, European Union chief Brexit negotiator Michel Barnier, European Commission President Jean-Claude Juncker and European Council President Donald Tusk make their way to a media conference at the conclusion of an EU summit in Brussels. AP Photo/Pablo Martinez Monsivais

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⊲ CALENDAR

PROTESTS OF YELLOW VESTS IN FRANCE

Demonstrators run away through tear gas in Lyon, central France AP Photo/Laurent Cipriani

17 NOVEMBER The protests originally directed primarily against the tax on fuel have gradually begun to show signs of France’s total dissatisfaction with governmental economic reforms and rising cost of living, which is why, among other workers, truck drivers and farmers are currently inclined towards joining the protest.

PRESIDENCY OF THE OSCE 6-7 NOVEMBER Slovakia took over the presidency of the Organization for Security and Co-operation in Europe (OSCE) from Italy at the annual OSCE Ministerial Council which took place 6 - 7 November 2018 in Milan, Italy. The main topics of the council are the conﬂict in Ukraine, prevention of conﬂicts, human rights and freedoms, and cooperation with the Mediterranean countries.

DEATH OF 41ST US PRESIDENT GEORGE H. W. BUSH 30 NOVEMBER

CDU party chairwoman Annegret Kramp-Karrenbauer enters the podium during a party convention of the Christian Democratic Party CDU in Hamburg, Germany AP Photo/Markus Schreiber

In this photo, the ﬂag-draped casket of former President George H.W. Bush is carried by a military honor guard past former President George W. Bush and wife Laura Bush, President Donald Trump, ﬁrst lady Melania Trump, former President Barack Obama, Michelle Obama, former President Bill Clinton, former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton, former President Jimmy Carter, and Rosalynn Carter during a State Funeral at the National Cathedral in Washington. AP Photo/Carolyn Kaster

George Herbert Walker Bush, the president who managed the end of the Cold War and forged a global coalition to oust Iraqi forces from Kuwait, has died on 30 November 2018 at age 94.

REPLACEMENT IN THE GERMAN POLITICAL PARTY – CDU 7 DECEMBER Germany’s ruling Christian Democratic Union party elected Annegret Kramp-Karrenbauer to succeed Chancellor Angela Merkel as its new leader. She likely will lead the CDU into the 2021 federal elections. As Merkel said in October, she would leave her post as party chief, but remain as the chancellor of Germany until the end of the parliamentary term in 2021.

Italy’s Minister of Foreign Affairs and Chairperson of the OSCE, Enzo Moavero Milanesi, center, shakes hand with Slovakia Foreign Affairs Minister Miroslav Lajcak, during the closing press conference at the permanent council of the Organization for Security and Co-operation in Europe, OSCE event, in Milan, Italy. AP Photo/Luca Bruno

GLOBSEC MAGAZINE ⊲ 47

GLOBSEC MAGAZINE

GLOBSEC

Issue 1/2019 Publication date: 16 January 2019

MAGAZINE

1.2019

FACING THE FUTURE: EUROPE´S CHALLENGES IN 2019 ⊲ INTERVIEW WITH MIROSLAV LAJČÁK by Lucia Husenicová

⊲ BREXIT: THE WITHDRAWAL DEAL IS ON THE TABLE

Editor-in-Chief

Soňa Trojanová

Project Coordinator

Martina Šinkovičová

Language Corrections Tomáš Grenzner

by Orsolya Raczova

⊲ FOURTH INDUSTRIAL REVOLUTION: TRENDS AND STRATEGIES FOR THE WORKFORCE

Graphic Design

Juraj Karáčoň

Photography

SITA, TASR

⊲ Headlines

Peter Džadoň, Ján Gdovec,

by Zuzana Navrátilová

⊲ THE FUTURE OF EURO-AREA GOVERNANCE by Ulrich Brasche

Natália Tkáčová, Benjamín Tomko ⊲ In Depth

Ján Čverha, Viola Martonová, Alexandra Ilková

⊲ Op-ed

Kristína Hriseňková, Peter Džadoň

⊲ History Chapter

Michaela Marečková

⊲ Eu Insight

Natália Tkáčová

⊲ Visegrad News

Anna Przybyll

⊲ Chateau Bela

Marcel Jacko

⊲ Quiz

Michaela Marečková

⊲ Calendar

Viola Martonová

GLOBSEC Academy Centre Kuzmányho 3, 974 01 Banská Bystrica Mobile: 00421 / 948 120 537 Tel./Fax.: 00421 / 2 544 106 09

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The responsibility for opinions expressed in signed articles, studies and other contributions rests solely with their authors, and their publication does not constitute an endorsement by the Globsec magazine The editorial board of the Globsec magazine reserves the right to shorten and revise articles when necessary.