Euro-Atlantic! think.act.lead. 4/2015 by GLOBSEC Academy Centre

in this issue 4

headlines

interview with Takudo Yamada

in depth

SDGs and Climate Change: Too Little, Too Late

What Lies Ahead on the Way to Development Objectives of the 2030 Agenda by Nina Macháčová SDGs and Climate Change: Too Little, Too Late by Juraj Mesík Significance of Industrialization and Trade for Developing Countries by Olu Fasan

UN 2030 Agenda: Are We Ready for the Next Chapter?

EU insight UN 2030 Agenda: Are We Ready for the Next Chapter? by Andrej Králik

opinion poll

Visegrad news

GLOBSEC Challenge Countering Kremlin’s Information War by Jakub Tomášek

op-eds

Strategy Council Catch-Up

calendar

quiz

23 Countering Kremlin’s Information War

Egoistic Leadership of Erdoğan and the Victory 28 The of Kurds to Secure Democracy in Turkey

editorial

Katarína Schwertnerová Editor-in-Chief We are all well aware that the Cold-War era narrative parting our planet into “three worlds” based on political, economic and social divisions between countries was not consistent back then, and it certainly is not today. In spite of this, the term “third world countries” remains to this day synonymous with politically and economically under-developed part of the world. Sometimes it seems like this outlook gives the more privileged countries a perfect excuse to distance themselves just enough to remain unbothered about the fate of the so-called Global South. However, even though the term “third world country” is nowadays often deemed politically incorrect, it is necessary to face the fact that when it comes to economic development and quality of life, we have been failing to create “one world” for decades. The year 2001 might appeared to be a good opportunity for a fresh start in this endeavour. The international community garnered the excitement around the new millennium to boost the efforts for jump-starting the development of the countries which had been lagging behind for

far too long. The UN came up with eight Millennium Development Goals (MDGs), which were supposed to provide a framework for policies of its members to instigate positive changes with regard to environment, poverty reduction, access to education, gender equality, child mortality, maternal health, spread of disease (especially HIV/AIDS), and to establish global partnership for development. MDGs are about to expire at the end of this year. But many consider the progress we have made in ameliorating lives of the under-privileged unconvincing. Still, the UN Secretary-General Ban Kimoon described MDGs as “the most successful anti-poverty movement in history”. Admittedly, more than 1 billion people were lifted out of extreme poverty, which means living on less than $ 1.25 a day. However, that does not mean all of those people now live decent lives, or at least the lives we would consider to be such. The notion of poverty and need is clearly very subjective. While they might be happy with what they have, it should not be an excuse for us to stop pushing for more significant improvement. Moreover, 14% of world´s population still remains under the threshold of extreme poverty. It is undeniable that great work has been done under the MDGs. But for the amount of money and time spent, it seems far too little. Ban Ki-moon himself admitted that “inequalities persist and the progress has been uneven”. There are great disparities in progress between urban and rural areas. Women, children and the elderly are still often excluded from enjoying a better quality of life. When thinking about the way forward beyond 2015, there were two big lessons to be learned from the MDGs. First, it is clearly not enough to treat the mere symptoms of underdevelopment. What we need to do is to root out its causes. Additionally, for the development to be sustainable, our policies need to integrate economic, social and environmental aspects, while

devising comprehensive strategies. After two and a half year of consultations within an open working group, a list of 17 Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) was drawn and approved by the UN in September 2015. These goals should become guidelines for all development efforts until 2030. Despite their broad scope, they are supposed to help focus the initiatives of all included actors. The golden principle is not to leave anyone behind when working towards better, more dignified life conditions. Unlike MDGs, the SDGs are universal in their scope: the responsibility does not rest solely on the developing countries with the developed worlds’ only concern being provision of the money. All the countries in the world are now expected to actively engage in this pursuit of more equal and just world. Last but not least, in light of the current global security challenges it is probably high time that we all started taking sustainable development really seriously. It is imperative that we make the connection between the development issues and security and stability in the world. Climate change and the consequent underperforming agriculture leading up to poverty and hunger may be just the beginning. Add social or confessional frictions into the mix, and the preconditions for conflict are ripe. Not to mention various development-related motivations for migration to more developed regions. Sadly, the list could go on. If we want to talk about tackling the root causes of these issues, we need to get serious about how we can contribute to the development efforts. Dear readers, let me welcome you back on the pages of our magazine. I hope you will find the articles carefully put together by our editorial team interesting and enriching. I invite you to follow us on Twitter @EuroAtlanticMag. Let us know your thoughts, suggestions or if you are interested in contributing yourself. Enjoy the read!

headlines Turkey Shoots Down Montenegro Will Cameron Presents

Russian Plane Start Accesion Talks to NATO On 24 November the Russian SU24 aircraft was shot down by the Turkish F16s aircraft on the Turkish-Syrian border. The plane crashed the Syrian province of Latakia. This marks the first time that Russian plane crashed down in Syria since Russia launched air strikes in the country. The incident was immediately reported to the United Nations Security Council. Turkish representative to the UN, Halit Cevik, explained that two aircraft with unknown nationality had entered Turkish airspace near the town of Yayladagi. The Turks claimed that the planes had been warned ten times in five minutes but only one aircraft left the airspace. Since there was no response from the other plane, Turkish F-16s performing air combat patrolling in the area fired at the aircraft. The plane crashed on the Syrian side of the border which according to president Putin proves that the plane in fact flew over Syrian territory. Russians therefore refused the violation of Turkish airspace by Russian planes. They also denied having received any warnings form the Turks prior to shooting the aircraft down. Moreover, Russian air force commander, Gen Victor Bondarev, presented radar data showing that Turkish plane which fired at Russian aircraft was at the time 2 kilometres inside Syrian airspace. Immediately after the incident, Turkey invoked article 4 of Washington Treaty and called for extraordinary meeting of North Atlantic Council. Following the meeting, Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg declared that NATO supports the territorial integrity of Turkey.

During North Atlantic Council meeting on 2 December, NATO Foreign Ministers decided to invite Montenegro to start accession talks to become the 29th member of the Alliance. The last enlargement of the Alliance happened in 2009 when Albania and Croatia joined the organisation. Montenegro joined Partnership for Peace in 2006. Since 2009 the country has been working closely with the Alliance under Membership Action Plan outlining necessary reforms to be implemented in order to prepare for the NATO membership. Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg praised Montenegro for its commitment to common values and international security. However, NATO will continue to follow closely the progress in areas such as defence adaptation, reforms in regards to rule of law as well as stirring up public support for NATO membership of Montenegro. The decision of North Atlantic Council is the first step towards launching the accession talks in early 2016. Secretary General expects the talks to go smoothly. After they will be concluded, NATO and Montenegro will sign an accession protocol which is required to be ratified by parliaments of all 28 current members of the Alliance. It is suggested that the signing of the protocol might take place during NATO summit in Warsaw in July 2016. Russia which constantly opposes the expansion of NATO to excommunist countries warned against admitting Montenegro to the Alliance.

His EU Negotiation

Demands In his speech at the Chatham House on 10 November, British Prime Minister David Cameron set out his goals for the reform of the European Union. Fulfilling these demands might determine the outcome of the referendum on UK´s membership in the EU which is due to take place before the end of 2017. His address followed the letter that Cameron had sent to European Council president Donald Tusk and marks the official beginning of the renegotiation process. Cameron´s list of reforms focuses on four main areas – single market, freedom of movement of persons, competitiveness of the EU and the principle of “ever closer union”. Additionally, Cameron declared that UK expects some form of legally binding agreement with the EU. Prime Minister is determined to secure the interest of non-euro members of the EU in order to avoid the situation when the decisions about the single market will only be favourable for Eurozone members. Although closely related with the functioning of the single market, David Cameron aims to stop the abuse of the freedom of movement for the social benefits in some member states. He has put restricting benefits for migrants from within the EU at the heart of his demands. In terms of competitiveness, he advocates cutting the red tape and scrapping the regulations on businesses. UK also aspires to achieve an opt-out from “ever closer union” clause in the EU treaties. Instead, Cameron requires strengthening the role of national parliaments as well as the principle of subsidiarity.

Terrorist

Canadian Liberals

Gunmen and suicide bombers committed a series of co-ordinated attacks in six places in Paris on the night of 13 November which left 129 people dead and hundreds wounded. The attacks took place almost simultaneously with three teams of perpetrators. The first attack happened at Stade de France where French president François Hollande attended friendly football match between France and Germany. Three men detonated their explosive vests near the stadium after being denied entrance by the security guards. Gun attacks by semi-automatic rifles hit several popular nightlife spots in central Paris firing at bars, cafés and restaurants. The deadliest attack, however, took place in Bataclan, a 1,500-seat venue which was sold out for a concert of American band Eagles of Death Metal. Three attackers killed 89 people by firing riffles into the crowd. After police raided the venue one assailant was shot and the other two detonated their explosive vests. The French president described the attacks as an act of war. He declared state of emergency in France and tightened border controls. Following the attacks police raids have been carried out all over the country as well as in the Belgium capital, Brussels, where one of the perpetrators originated from. The goal of the police raids is to find the remaining perpetrators of the attacks which the terrorist organisation Islamic state had claimed responsibility for.

Justin Trudeau´s Liberal Party gained 184 seats in Canadian general election on 19 October. Liberals are taking over the government with comfortable majority in federal parliament although at the start of the campaign the party was polling at third place. Liberal Party is coming back to power after nearly a decade of Conservative government of Stephen Harper. Mr Trudeau is a household name in Canadian liberal politics since his late father, Pierre Elliott Trudeau, was former Prime Minister of Canada too. The agenda of Trudeau´s government includes setting national targets for greenhouse gas emissions, changing Canadian first-past-thepost electoral system as well as over $40 billion worth of infrastructure investments. Already during the campaign, Trudeau made it clear that he will run deficits for next three years in order to boost economic growth through public spending. However, he will be faced with slowing economy of Canada which struggles with falling world oil prices. He also aims to give tax breaks to the middle class while increasing taxes for wealthy Canadians. Trudeau intends to take in more Syrian refugees but on the other hand end the participation of Canada in global coalition against Islamic State. The second youngest Prime Minister in Canadian history formed a gender balanced government with 15 men and 15 women under the age of 50. The members of the government include different ethnicities in order to reflect the diversity of Canada.

Disputes Over

Attacks in Paris Return to Power Relocation of US Base in Okinawa In October, newly elected governor of the island of Okinawa, Takeshi Onaga, revoked the decision of his predecessor to relocate and expand US military base Futenma. According to an agreement with the United States concluded in 1996, Japanese government is supposed to move the base from densely populated area to Henoko bay in the north of the island. In the new location, the base should be expanded by a new airstrip. Locals however oppose this move mainly for ecological reasons and they prefer that the base be relocated from the island altogether. The dispute has lasted for nearly two decades and causes tension between Tokyo and Washington. Okinawa forms a critical part of US military presence in Asia. The prefecture hosts the biggest military deployment of American forces outside US borders which represents about half of 50,000 US military personnel in Japan. The main goal of Futenma base is to be a deterrent against China. Central government in Tokyo therefore overturned the decision of governor Onaga later that month deeming it to be illegal and risking protests by islanders. Onaga refused to reinstate the approval for landfill works following an order from the Ministry of Land, Infrastructure, Transport and Tourism. The government of Shinzo Abe then took the local government to court in order to achieve an injunction to reverse governor´s decision. The trial started on 2 December.

interview Takudo Yamada: “SDGs Must Become the Criteria for All Policies of Rich Countries” interviewed by Katarína Schwertnerová What are the lessons learned from the previous UN development agenda (MDGs) that helped in defining post2015 agenda? What are the key differences between MDGs and SDGs? Is it wise to have such a long list of goals? In the 1990’s after the end of the Cold War, western aid lost its political constituency and was in decline. This hit developing countries hard, especially Africa, where poverty was becoming more extreme due to the Structural Adjustment Program of the IMF and the World Bank. The MDGs were an important statement of political intent by world leaders back in 2000, basically to give poverty a global priority status and incentive to increase and reform aid for that purpose, with some demonstrable impact on rich countries’ policies on aid. Their impact on developing countries’ policies varied – some owned and worked hard on them, while others did little. The MDGs’ focus on the symptoms of poverty rather than on its structural causes also meant that they were not enough to actually eradicate poverty. It was also unfortunate for the MDGs that few people knew about them early on because they were crafted in a closed room, and the 9/11 and the War on Terror monopolised the world’s attention. The SDGs are a huge

improvement on the MDGs: • They aim to eradicate, not merely reduce, poverty and hunger, commit to leave no one behind and reach the furthest behind first, recognise the primary responsibility

• They look at some of the structural drivers of poverty, such as economic, social and political inequalities, including that of gender. • They understand the importance of effective, just and accountable state institutions. • And they were formed through open and participatory negotiation processes, leading to a much stronger sense of ownership by Member States and other stakeholders. However, there are a few issues that the 2030 agenda does not address fully that will be critical in its achievement.

of each nation state for the country’s development, try to establish synergies between economic development, social justice, and environmental sustainability, and recognise the universal nature of the problems of sustainable development (meaning that the rich world has the responsibility to put their houses in order, do no harm to others, and contribute to other countries’ efforts in accordance with their capability).

1) Power shift within countries: The roles and impact of extreme wealth, and responsibilities of the superrich and large businesses. They must be brought back in touch with the rest of society as responsible citizens. 2) Power shift between countries: The new agenda rightly “delegates” development responsibilities from donors to national governments. But the rich world has yet to delegate the power and resources that are necessary for national governments to fulfil those new responsibilities. 3) The roles and division of labour between the public and

private sectors. While the private sector engagement in the sustainable development endeavour is much welcome, the responsibility, and the primacy of the state and the public sector must be acknowledged and prioritised in certain sectors that are critical in realising people’s basic needs and human rights, which market forces simply won’t address. 4) Civil society space: The political reality in too many countries, north and south alike, is that the political space for civil society is shrinking or shifting, which makes it very difficult for civil society to play the aforementioned roles they need to play in the implementation of the SDGs. What will be the impact of growing population in Africa on reaching SDGs? It makes it all the more important to ensure inclusive, more just and equitable growth in Africa so that the large number of youth can become the engine of the continent’s development. People often cite the population growth as a reason that we cannot eradicate hunger.

sustainable food production by those smallholders’. Addressing the population growth itself requires reducing poverty, and improving the sexual and reproductive health and rights of women. Considering challenges such as tax avoidance in developing countries or obstacles in their access to the world markets, can we hope for development aid to be effective at all? What could be role of international financial and economic institutions in fighting these obstacles? Aid certainly does have a role in addressing those issues.

Especially with decreasing amount of financial resources for official development aid, effectivity and good direction of money is crucial. This is a problem mainly on the part of the governments of the developing countries. Do the SDGs treat this problem? If so, how? The SDG Target 17.2 recommits rich countries to honouring their historical commitment to provide 0.7% of their GNI as aid, but the

“Civil society has a critical role to play both as implementers of the SDGs as well as advocates for change.” It can be used for example to strengthen the country’s tax collection system so that the country can collect more of its domestic resources to support its own development. The IMF can and should also advise countries to increase both tax rate and tax progressivity, so as to help increase the national budget and its equitable spending, especially for health and education. However, a strong tax system

“Development aid can be used to strengthen the country’s tax collection system so that the country can support its own development.” This is a false argument: there is more than enough food to feed everyone on the planet. It’s just that the balance of power in the global food market is so skewed in favour of food giants at the expense of smallholder producers that the latter are losing out on food. Public policies need to prioritise supporting

address the problems facing poor countries. A truly global, secondgeneration tax reform is needed, as demanded by the majority of governments and civil society.

won’t be able to capture those resources that are due to them if the international tax regime continues to allow global businesses to not pay tax where they do business. The recently agreed action plan by the OECD in this regard may help richer countries tackle corporate tax dodging at home, but doesn’t

political reality is moving away from this. And more and more donors are diverting the remaining aid budget away from longterm development towards supporting their own security agenda and multinational businesses, and building barriers against migrants and refugees. This will deprive governments and civil society organisations (CSOs), especially in the least developed countries whose budgets still rely predominantly on ODA, of the precious public finance that can intentionally tackle poverty and inequality. What is the role of private sector in the new development agenda? What challenges might this involve? The broad scope of the SDGs means that there are important roles for the private sector to play, especially for largescale infrastructure projects such

as roads, railways, power and telecommunications, and the jobs such sectors create. The challenges include: • Governments establishing proper checks and balances to ensure their profit maximisation will not do harm to communities, or undermine the roles and ability of the public sector to protect basic human rights. • Companies moving beyond partnerships to policies, so that their core business enhances contribution to sustainable development. Oxfam offers committed businesses the Poverty Footprint tool that helps them assess their impact on poverty throughout their value chains. • Ensuring a fair portion of the private finance is turned into accountable public finance through taxation, so that the government can fulfil its own development responsibilities. No corporate social responsibility project can substitute for the company’s responsibility as a tax payer. How can foreign policies of developed countries be prevented

from being contradictory to the development goals? Corporate tax avoidance, unsustainable debt burden, and unfair trade regimes mean a much bigger amount of money flows from poor countries to rich countries than ODA does from

marginalised people, empower citizens to claim their rights promised under the SDGs, and bring the voices of people across the society so they influence the policies and practices of governments, businesses and CSOs. Civil society has a critical role to play both as implementers

“The new agenda rightly “delegates” development responsibilities from donors to national governments.” north to south. It is critically important that the SDGs become the criteria for all policies, domestic and foreign, of rich countries’ governments. This means reforming policies from serving the short-term interests of the few towards supporting universal, longer-term global goods for the many, and, as such, requires strong political leadership by Presidents and Prime Ministers, and meaningful participation of civil society.

of the SDGs as well as advocates for change. This goes for civil societies in developed and developing countries alike. However, the civil societies of more affluent countries have a responsibility to ensure the policies and practices of their own governments and companies do not negatively affect, but rather contribute more and better to other countries’ sustainable development.

How can civil societies, both in developed and developing countries, contribute to fulfilling SDGs? Do the social media play a role in this? Leaving no one behind, as promised by the SDGs, requires that services reach the most

akudo Yamada is a Senior Policy Advisor on the Post 2015 Development Agenda at Oxfam International. He leads and coordinates Oxfam’s global advocacy on the Post 2015 Agenda, while engaging with the UN missions of the Member States, UN agencies and other stakeholders in New York.

services (health and education), state obligation to uphold human rights to these services, and related development finance (aid and tax), and international trade. He was one of the pioneers of international advocacy in the Japanese civil society, and as such, often led a number of civil society coalitions and networks engaged in international rior to this, Takumo was Head of Advocacy and development issues. Campaigns at Oxfam Japan in Tokyo between 2002 and 2014, whose role was oversight of the e obtained a Master of Arts in International advocacy and campaigns activities of Oxfam’s JapaRelations at the University of St Andrews, Fife, nese affiliate. He specialised in the areas of essential UK, in 2000.

P 8

BIO

in depth

What lies ahead on the way

to development objectives

of the 2030 Agenda Nina Macháčová: Project Manager, SlovakAid

uch of what has been discussed in 2015 was accompanied by the attributive of “development”. It has been a period of reflecting upon the Millennium Development Goals (MDGs), which were only partially achieved. It has also been a period in which the world had the opportunity to set out on a revised course in development cooperation. The world is currently in phase of indicating its universal development targets and from this point on, it is only forwards. The greatest appeal for effective implementation has emerged, and it now accompanies all of our efforts. MDGs, which were supposed to have been achieved by the end of 2015, cannot be considered fulfilled, and there is indeed an enormous amount of the challenges ahead of us. At the United Nations Sustainable Development Summit on 25 September 2015, world leaders adopted the 2030 Agenda for Sustainable Development, which includes a set of 17 Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) to end poverty, fight inequality and injustice, and tackle climate change by 2030. Despite all the progress that

has been made up until this day, more than 800 million people around the world still remain in extreme poverty¹ . That’s why the new goals of sustainable development should bring improvement in the lives of all.

and proclaims that every person should have the chance for a better and dignified life. Speeches of world leaders accompanying the adoption process of a new heading of development cooperation

A child gets examined in a nutritive centre in Kwale, Kenya. (Boba Balúchová/SlovakAid) The universal aspect of 2030 Agenda and the versatility of the new targets have been underlined on more than one occasion. This essentially means that nobody should be left behind. The difference from the MDGs is therefore obvious - whereas these addressed primarily the developing countries, the new agenda is targeting all people

highlighted the human rights of the weak and the poor and appealed for greater effort in protecting disadvantaged groups as well as for greater respect to the environment.

A new phase The 2030 Agenda is different from

¹ http://www.un.org/millenniumgoals/2015_MDG_Report/pdf/MDG%202015%20rev%20%28July%201%29.pdf

the previous one, not only when it comes to the total number of selected goals and targets, but also in that for the first time these goals aim at everyone, not only at the developing countries. In addition to the social dimension of development, which dominates the current agenda, the objectives cover a wider range of areas, such as income inequality, peace and security, sustainable cities and resilient infrastructure, environmental protection and climate change. All against the backdrop of global partnership and cooperation. These seventeen universal objectives apply to all: 1. End poverty in all its forms everywhere 2. End hunger, achieve food security and improved nutrition and promote sustainable agriculture 3. Ensure healthy lives and promote well-being for all at all ages 4. Ensure inclusive and equitable quality education and promote lifelong learning opportunities for all 5. Achieve gender equality and empower all women and girls 6. Ensure availability and sustainable management of water and sanitation for all 7. Ensure access to affordable, reliable, sustainable and modern energy for all 8. Promote sustained, inclusive and sustainable economic growth, full and productive employment and decent work for all 9. Build resilient infrastructure, promote inclusive and sustainable industrialization and foster innovation 10. Reduce inequality within and among countries 11. Make cities and human settlements inclusive, safe,

resilient and sustainable 12. Ensure sustainable consumption and production patterns 13. Take urgent action to combat climate change and its impacts 14. Conserve and sustainably use the oceans, seas and marine resources for sustainable development 15. Protect, restore and promote sustainable use of terrestrial ecosystems, sustainably manage forests, combat desertification, and halt and reverse land degradation and halt biodiversity loss

comprehensively and with clarity. Now the world must pay attention to the actual implementation of these words, instead of just loudly repeating them on paper. The effective and practical application of SDGs requires integration and cooperative action between political institutions on different levels – UN, EU, national governments, municipal governments – as well as with local and international stakeholders. There is a perplexity of a multitude of institutions and stakeholders with diverse aims, competences and perceptions of time frames, as they face different incentive structures (even though

A young boy who had his left leg amputated after a severe infection which developed following a snake bite, convalesces at Agok hospital, South Sudan. (Pierre-Yves Bernard/MSF) 16. Promote peaceful and inclusive societies for sustainable development, provide access to justice for all and build effective, accountable and inclusive institutions at all levels 17. Strengthen the means of implementation and revitalize the global partnership for sustainable development² For the upcoming 15 years, the course of development cooperation has been set out

² https://sustainabledevelopment.un.org/?menu=1300

the effort for SDGs implantation will primarily be concentrated on the national level). The complex diversity of areas touched by the SDGs represents an additional challenge in terms of governance. Various policies and mechanisms are going to be established and in order for them to work, various governmental as well as non-governmental bodies will be obliged to engage in serious and effective cooperation and to efficiently divide their duties. Constant and responsible multi-layered decision making,

multilevel coordination and indicators as a whole and will which are more than common in cooperation, and multitude mirror our efforts in achieving the developing world. of stakeholders intervening the new goals. In this regard, we Our people are bright and skilful, in the process lie on the right should keep in mind that although but the financial constraints in path to successful sustainable mechanism and policy coherence certain cases set boundaries development to their d e v e l o p m ent policies and “We should strive to connect and coordinate endeavours. initiatives. our interventions to achieve greater impact.” Considering the Even with the high level of engagement of interconnectedness in Europe in at the EU and national levels is of these clever minds, the Slovak particular, the EU should play a uttermost importance, sufficient Official Development Assistance crucial role not only in terms of flexibility is also necessary (ODA) has its limitations. coordination, but also engage in order to properly react to Slovakia, as a member of in an incentivising role, and take regional and local developmental OECD’s Development Assistance the lead in revitalising SD policies needs. To fully assess and Committee (DAC), has committed and goals among EU Member improve the effectiveness of the to providing 0.7 % of its GDP to States. The aim of tying the SDGs implementation process of SDGs help poor countries; but reality to specific targets and indicators we do not only have to focus on is different. Being a new EU enhances opportunities for the goals to be attained, but also member state, an exemption effective implementation, on the process itself. applies to Slovakia, so that in fact facilitates monitoring, and could we should contribute with 0.33 % thus contribute to improving of our GNI. According to a report reflexivity. evaluating the development Speaking of indicators, this cooperation in the country, final element of the SDG package however, our share amounted to necessary for a measurable only 0.084 %. knowledge of our future By the end of this year, progress and verification is still the fundamental framework in the process of development, Slovakia is one of the for implementation of the selection and adjustment by smaller players in the field of new development agenda is the UN Statistical Commission. development cooperation, supposed to be launched. It The whole set will be a final mainly due to budgetary matters. should be explicit and clear in complementary piece to the Under these circumstances the terms of priorities and areas of existing 17 goals and 169 targets. most effective modus operandi focus. Nevertheless, we should The developed targets vary in is to focus on specific areas strive to connect and coordinate specificity, clarity of timelines, of cooperation, develop and our interventions to achieve width of approach and openness strengthen partnerships, and greater impact. Naturally, more to interpretation. These indicators enhance capacity building. can be done with more resources will serve as a at hand - both “The universal aspect of 2030 Agenda demonstration financial and of accuracy human. and the versatility of the new targets have of current The success been underlined on more than one occasion.” setting and of the 2030 will determine whether there is Slovak organizations and Agenda will be measured not by a necessity for any additional other subjects involved in what had been promised, but by modification. development cooperation have how much it will actually deliver. Each state is in charge of a strong comparative advantage Updated course of development collection of relevant data, – educated workforce with cooperation represents a chance which will be further processed. valuable set of skills, experience to embrace our responsibility to Disaggregated data will be useful and knowledge, capable of set the world on a sustainable for measuring each indicator and smart project management and track. ensuring that the 2030 Agenda creative and innovative ideas and applies to every member state. solutions for various complicated Combined data will assess the and problematic situations,

Slovakia’s position on the verge of a new agenda

in depth SDGs and Climate Change:

Too Little, Too Late

Juraj Mesík: Department of Development Studies, Palacký University, Czech Republic

A message on a pair of shoes as part of a symbolic rally at the Place de la Républic in Paris. (AP Photo/Laurent Cipriani)

he adoption of 17 Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) by the United Nations in September 2015 was heralded as a major achievement of the global community. A different perspective is more sobering though: the high number of stated goals in reality reveals a lack of priorities and a rather self-complacent approach, in which everybody at the table is simply satisfied

by adding to the list priorities of their own. Such approach comes with many dangers: the lack of focus may lead to spreading limited resources too thin over too many goals and directions, not to mention the possibility that some of the adopted goals may contradict the others. On top of these risks, at least one fundamental goal is still missing altogether in the SDGs.

Lack of Focus, Lack of Urgency Every military historian or a higher ranking officer knows that focusing strength and resources had time and again proved to be the key strategy in winning battles and wars throughout the history. In the military, failing and loosing is rarely an option.

Compared to formerly eight Millenium Development Goals, the number of SDGs has more than doubled: does this not in fact reflect that there is now twice as much confusion on just what the fundamentally important goals really are, as opposed to those, which may be ‘nice’ but not quite as important to achieve? It certainly does appear so. This lack of focus in the SDGs illustrates – perhaps too well - that the global community is not truly and fully aware of how serious and potentially devastating the risks resulting from the current global trends really are. Only a missing sense of the actual risk can explain the chosen approach, which may very well ensue in humankind losing the struggle to alter the dangerous course it has set out on.

Ignoring this fundamental issue seriously undermines their credibility. One can speculate

late 2015, have also considerably increased their population since 2000: the war-torn Syria by 37%,

French President François Hollande and French environment minister, Segolène Royal, in the Climate Generations area during COP21 in Paris. (Pool via AP/Philippe Wojazer)

Iraq by 44%, and Afghanistan by 42%. Do we seriously believe that the governments of these countries are going to assure “no poverty” Our species, the proudly self(SDG goal 1), “no hunger” (goal proclaimed Homo sapiens, is now 2), “good health and wellbeing” around 200 000 years old. Most of (goal 3), “quality education” (goal this time – for more than 190 000 4), “clean water and sanitation” years - the global population (goal 6) or “decent work” (goal consisted of less than 10 million 8) to tens of millions of children people. It took our ancestors born year by year? Aren’t the 199 800 years to reach the first SDGs more reminiscent of a billion in population. Adding child´s Christmas wish-list, than the next billion, however, took of a serious strategy document? only about 130 years: in 1930, Even the richest countries on the human the planet population would face “The lack of focus may lead to spreading limited of the planet tremendous resources too thin over too many goals.” reached 2 challenges if billion. And they were to only after that did the population brink of starvation, but they are p r o v i d e enough schools growth become truly explosive: not at all unique in their explosive and clinics, teachers and doctors, in the lifetime of just one person - population growth: there are not to mention jobs and decent let’s say, Queen Elisabeth II, born dozens of other nations in the life perspectives for such fastin 1926 – the population almost Middle East and the Sub-Saharan growing populations. When it quadrupled, from 2 to current 7.4 Africa with a similar increase in comes to the poor developing billion. population: Kenya 47%, Tanzania countries, it appears more like a Sadly enough, among the 17 50%, Uganda 57% - the list goes pure fiction. Without a massive stated goals of the SDGs you will on. Three countries, which were investment into population not find a single one addressing the source of the most significant control, much more likely the issue of overpopulation. influx of immigrants to Europe in than generating progress and

Overlooking the Elephant in the Room

this conspicuous absence to be a result of pressure from various social groups, particularly religious ones. But without curbing the population growth, achieving the SDGs will remain a sheer illusion. From 2000 to 2014, the population of Nigeria increased by 44%, reaching 180 million. During the same period, the population of Ethiopia grew by 50% (to 97 million), as did the population of Yemen (to 26 million). At the end of 2015, both Yemen and Ethiopia are on the

prosperity, these countries will generate masses of emigrants trying to escape poverty and desperation.

snow coverage of the planet, increasingly frequent and serious droughts leading to a growing frequency and greater spread of wildfires, which are reducing planet’s CO₂ absorption capacity and releasing ever more CO₂ by themselves – all of these are just Goal number 13 declares that a few of the “big unknowns” in it is necessary to “take urgent the game. action to combat climate change The last of these “unknowns” and its impact”. This goal refers to to be addressed here relates to The hard truth is that the idea our civilization´s capability to the desire not to allow an increase in average global temperature of not overstepping 2°C limit function or even survive after a beyond 2°C, but, unsurprisingly, is not backed up by science. 2°C global temperature increase. it does not give any clear idea Scientific data suggest that with It is known that all civilizations in as to how we should go about 400 ppm of CO₂ already firmly the human history since the time fulfilling it. What is more, it embedded in the atmosphere, of the ancient Egypt and Sumer directly contradicts others – goal this aim is not achievable to the current global civilization 8 in particular. Goal 8 requires a anymore. Last time there was a emerged and persisted within “sustainable economic growth” similar concentration of CO₂ in an exceptionally steady climate – which is generally understood the atmosphere – in Pliocene, regime of Holocene. This steady by too many politicians and too some 3 to 5 million years ago, Holocene climate, during which many voters as an economic long before our species evolved the average global temperature growth, which will moved within the continue forever. narrow scope of There are indeed more-less 1°C, more sophisticated enabled rise of interpretations to agriculture and this concept, but surplus production those are mainly of food, which is for scholars: what the very basis of all really matters is human civilizations. how politicians and Our civilization voters understand has already left the notion. And this ‘comfort zone’ in our consumer and it is heading “Without curbing the population growth, achieving the SDGs will remain a towards an uncharted society, far too many sheer illusion.” (AP Photo/Jerome Delay) of those understand territory of a warmer, ´sustainable and in many regions growth´ as continuous growth – the average global temperature drier and unstable climate. How in consumption of goods, that was about 3 to 4°C higher than it much warmer climate is actually is, of materials and energy. is now. The sea levels were also compatible with sustaining As around 85% of the global much higher, by about 5 to 40m. sufficient agricultural production energy consumption comes from Another factor of uncertainty to feed 7.4 billion – and growing – burning fossil fuels, sustainable with regard to the future human population is completely economic development means temperature growth lies within unknown. The idea, that a 2°C continuous massive production self-reinforcing feedback loops increase in global temperature is already set in motion by human still within an area comfortable of greenhouse gasses. Despite this paradox, Goal 13 activities. And unlike burning of or even manageable without does aim in the right direction; fossil fuels, these are completely major global disaster and but unfortunately, as often out of human control: melting of massive depopulation is based happens with similar documents, permafrost releasing unknown on pure faith and marketing, not it lacks clarity. How urgent should quantities of CH₄, changes in on science. the action be? What kind of Earth´s albedo resulting from action are we talking about? And shorter winters and less ice and

Contradictory Goals

is the only quantitative measure provided here – i.e. not to allow more than 2°C temperature increase – even relevant at all? Is it achievable? And is it enough to guarantee smooth functioning of the current global civilization?

A Goal Based on Faith, Not Science

in depth

The Significance of Industrialisation and Trade

for Developing Countries Olu Fasan: Visiting Fellow, International Relations Department, London School of Economics, UK

“No nation is ever rich by the exploitation of the crude produce of the soil but the exportation of manufactures and services”. – Adam Smith, The Wealth of Nations, 1776

n the above statement by Adam Smith lies the predicament of most developing countries. Too many of them are dependent on exploitation and exporting of natural resources. Yet, as Adam Smith realized, such dependence on raw materials alone cannot make any nation rich1 ; what can, however, is the ability to manufacture valueadded products, develop quality services, and export them. In other words, it’s the ability to industrialise and trade. Throughout history, the world has experienced at least three waves of economic growth. Each of these has been characterised by industrialisation and the expansion of trade. The first wave was underpinned by the

industrial revolution of the late 18th and early 19th centuries, triggered by Britain but later followed by the rest of Europe and North America. The second wave of economic development began in the 1950s up to the early 1970s and was a product of the rise of Japan and the newly-industrialised economies in East Asia, with their rapid manufacturing and export-led growth. Then, in the late 1980s, the third wave global economic development began with the most rapid process of industrialisation up to date, led particularly by China and India and more broadly by the G20-developing countries, including Brazil, Indonesia and the Philippines. The common features in the

different economic phases² are rapid industrial development and growth of value-added products and services exports. Significantly, industrialisation and export-led growth can trigger a process that enables a developing country to catch up with a developed one. As the WTO puts it, “once a catchup process commences, rapid development is possible and has the potential to push incomes towards developed country levels.”³ This is evident in the rapid economic growth of China, which is now the world’s largest exporter, or in a number of other developing countries in the list of top twenty exporters, which includes Brazil, India, Malaysia, Mexico and Thailand. China’s

¹ Countries like Dubai, Saudi Arabia and Norway, which are resource-rich and dependent, have managed to overcome this challenge by developing massive services sector, such as tourism (in the case of Dubai), or have invested heavily in overseas assets and built up massive reserves to diversify their sources of income. ² See the WTO World Trade Report 2014 for a more detailed discussion of the three waves of economic development ³ Ibid, at page

rapid industrialisation and play insignificant role in Africa’s only exports raw materials, such export-led growth also helped trade. For instance, Africa’s share as iron ore and raw diamond and it reduce the proportion of its of world trade is just 3.1%, and, imports expensive value added people living in extreme poverty of this, the continent’s share of products such as cars and jewels, from 60% (in 1990) to 12% (in global manufacturing exports it will, as Adam Smith postulat2010)⁴ . was about 0.7% in 2011, rising ed, not be rich. By contrast, the It is evident industrialised from the forecountries going that inthat export dustrialisation value-added and high value products to products and resource-exservices exporting counport can help tries will, as a developed Ricardo Hauscountry genermann put it, ate a sustained “get the lion’s growth and share of the reduce povvalue and all erty. However, of the good the experiencjobs.”⁸ es of the maExperijor developing ence has also countries menshown that tioned above A worker makes his way in a natural gas refinery in the South Pars gas field in Asalouyeh, Iran, c o u n t r i e s are not replicatwhich depend on the northern coast of Persian Gulf. (AP/Ebrahin Noroozi) ed across all of on exporting the developing commodities world. This is particularly the case from just 0.54% in 2001⁷. are exposed to the vagaries of in Africa, which is the least inThe above demonstrates the world prices. Price volatility and dustrialised and, thus, the small- significance of industrialisation boom-bust cycles are the tradeest exporter of manufacturing and trade for developing coun- marks of commodities markets. products among the developing tries. But another way of look- This problem was acute in the countries. ing at the issue is to consider a 1970s, prompting agitation by The World Bank measures counterfactual: What happens if developing countries for a New industrialisation in terms of the a country does not industrialise International Economic Order, ratio of manufacturing value and export value-added prod- which was meant to be underadded to the Gross Domestic ucts, but instead depends on pinned by diversification of proProduct (GDP). The ratio for most extraction and export of natural duction and exports in developAfrican countries is less than resources? Well, the first problem ing countries and establishment 10%. South Africa, the continent’s concerns terms-of-trade, i.e. the of an international mechanism industrial powerhouse, has value of a country’s export rel- to stabilise commodity prices for 13%⁵ . By contrast, this ratio in ative to that of its imports. The coping with their instability and Thailand is at 33%, in China at world prices of raw materials are declining terms of trade.⁹ To this 31%, Malaysia 22%, Indonesia generally lower than those of val- end, the Integrated Programme 22%, and in India at 17%⁶ . ue-added manufacturing prod- for Commodities (IPC) was adManufacturing products also ucts. Thus, if a developing country opted in 1976 at the United Na⁴ See http://www.economist.com/blogs/economist-explains/2013/06/economist-explains-0 ⁵ See http://data.worldbank.org/indicator/NV.IND.MNNF.ZS ⁶ Ibid. It is important to note, though, that some countries’ manufacturing sectors are small while their services sectors are moresignificant. Value added services exports can compensate for manufacturing products for some countries, such as the UK. ⁷ Ron Sandrey, “The African trade profile for manufactured goods”, Tralac Trade Brief, August 2014 ⁸ See article, “Why raw materials are a dangerous distraction” at https://agenda.weforum.org/2014/07/raw-material-value-wealth-ricardo-hausmann/ ⁹ Economides, S and Wilson P (2001), The International Economic Order and the challenge from the South, London: IB Tauris.

tions Conference for Trade and Development (UNCTAD)¹⁰ . In recent years, the commodities boom that began in 2000, fuelled by the rapid economic growth in China and other major developing countries, speculative capital flows, near-zero interest rates, quantitative easing, etc., has also lead to undesirable effects, with the price of oil, for instance,

the uncertainty and vulnerability that come with being resourcedependent. Apart from helping to diversify a country’s export base, industrialisation can also have positive spill-overs on the rest of the economy, such as inducing growth of supply chain and services sector. For many developing countries, increasing productivity and value addition in the agricultural sectors, thereby

global value chains requires the ability to produce at standard quality and efficiency levels. For most developing countries, there are huge challenges related to the lack of critical infrastructure and finances to support manufacturing (which limits their supply capacity), as well as to the lack of recognized conformity with the international standards and the lack of

„High value products and services export can help a developed country generate a sustained growth and reduce poverty.“ crashing to a historic low of about $50 per barrel in December 2014, thus putting the economies of oil-dependent countries such as Nigeria in a precarious state. The truth is that adverse global growth shocks affect resource-dependent states more than diversified economies because of the inherent nature of their economies. For instance, according to some recent estimates, a percentage point decline in Eurozone’s real GDP growth could lead to 0.34 percentage point decline in output growth in diversified developing economies, while comparable effects on oildependent and non-oil resourcedependent states would be at about 0.6 and 0.5 percentage points respectively¹¹ . All of this shows that adding value to raw materials through manufacturing and exporting value-added products (and services) is the best antidote to

developing a vibrant agro-base industry, would go a long way to help create jobs and reduce poverty¹² . Furthermore, in recent years, a lot has been said about the rise of the global value chains and the opportunities that productionsharing (or “unbundling”) of tasks internationally presents to developing countries for specialization in performing certain tasks or manufacturing specific parts or components instead of complete products¹³ . This, indeed, is an opportunity for developing countries to exploit their comparative advantages, and industrialise through manufacturing certain parts or components that are needed in the global value chains. Thus, the rise of global value chains also offers an opportunity for resource-based industrialisation and trade. The old challenges, however, remain. Participation in the

efficient connectivity to markets. If developing countries can address these challenges with the support of the developed countries through, for instance, the Aid for Trade initiative, it is possible that at least some of them would be able to overcome these obstacles to industrialisation and integration into the world economy via value-added trade. To conclude, Adam Smith was right. A country can never be rich by simply producing and exporting raw materials. Developing countries need to add value to raw materials and export high quality goods and services. It is through industrialising and trading valueadded products and services that they can trigger a catch-up process which will enable them to make progress towards closing the gap that separates them from the developed economies.

¹⁰ Ibid. ¹¹ See, “How are emerging and developing countries affected by monetary and regulatory spillovers from advanced economies?”, Report of High-level Roundtable on Finance, Oxford University, 2014. ¹² See, “The Role of Trade in Ending Poverty”, WTO/World Bank, 2015 ¹³ World Trade Report 2014, WTO

EU INSIGHT UN 2030 Agenda: Are we ready

for the next chapter?

Andrej KrĂĄlik: Head of Press and Political Section, Representation of the European Commission in Slovakia

n 2000 the Millennium Development Goals were agreed to reduce poverty and improve the lives of people in developing countries. They have delivered encouraging results. The European Union and its Member States, together the worldâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s largest donor of Official Development Assistance, have helped make a difference in the lives of millions. The EU has been committed to the Millennium Development Goals since their adoption in 2000, and has progressively adapted its development policy to help achieve them. More than 1 billion people have been lifted out of extreme poverty since 1990. The target of halving the amount of people living in extreme poverty and hunger has been met even ahead of schedule. Still, the world is far from completely eradicating them. We attained our goals in the areas of primary school enrolment rates, literacy, reduction of child mortality, and access to drinking water. We all know the figures, but if you actually picture the people behind them, they become more than just that. In short, the Millennium Development Goals have made a difference and, in an equally important manner, they also helped us unite against indifference. The European Union helped drive this agenda, because we believe this is in essence what the United Nations were set up to achieve: social progress and a fairer future. Millennium Declaration

Representatives of NGOs hold cut-outs of trees and shout "clean the air, plant a tree", at the COP21 in Le Bourget north of Paris. (AP/Michel Euler) and the goals enshrined therein termined to play its full part in will expire at the end of 2015. implementing the 2030 AgenHence now the legitimate ques- da, which will notably shape our tion is: Are we ready for the next internal and external policies. chapter? The MDGs showed us Admittedly, this to-do-list that lack of development of is long and ambitious. The goals some countries is a threat to all. are so comprehensive because But so is unsustainable devel- they are to reflect the reality of opment on a global scale. This today's world and the daunting, is the challenge the European complex and interlinked nature Union commits to overcome to- of its problems. The boundarday, together with our partners. ies of our planet are now within

,,The MDGs showed us that lack of development of some countries is a threat to all. But so is unsustainable development on a global scale.â&#x20AC;? Thanks to this common understanding and commitment, the 2030 Agenda will be even more universal than the previous one. The Agenda is about eradicating poverty and putting sustainability at the heart of everything we do. The EU is de-

our sight, while social cohesion erodes, and inequalities in our societies grow. Global competition for resources is at an all-time high. The recipes that worked for so many of us in the past will not work for all of us in the future.

,,We have innovation on our side to find solutions – if we have the will to act.” Hence, we have to redefine our societies, as well as our relationship with nature. We have to be creative. Fundamentally, this is about rethinking just about everything we do. Everyone has to do their own bit – citizens, companies, governments and international organisations. The EU continues to be the biggest donor in the world, collectively providing more to the Official Development Assistance than all the other donors combined. In countries like ours, there is no excuse for not meeting the 0.7% target for the assistance. But this time, under the development goals, it's not just about footing the bill: those countries fortunate enough to have a developed or emerging economy are committed to play a different role. This is not just about development aid. It's just as much about change at home. European Union's message to all these countries is: it's also our turn now to step out of our comfort zone. It's about very concrete questions: about how we have to turn around our economies to make them circular, leaving behind our “take-make-consume and dispose” growth pattern, about how we must mend our societies' social fabric, and about how we integrate newcomers – all the more when they come as refugees fleeing war persecution. And we have to ask ourselves: how do we make our air, soil, water and oceans cleaner? How do we make our cities more resilient, inclusive and safe? Isn´t it alarming that third of food worldwide is thrown away? This year is pivotal for international action in development and climate change. The EU will urge its global partners to work closely together to conclude at the UN Climate Change Conference in Paris a robust, ambitious and

inclusive agreement to govern collective climate action after 2020. We have to rally around the vision of a resilient and decarbonised global economy in the long term and show resolve to mobilise required resources. In order to set up the right incentives for achieving our goal to limit the global warming, keeping it below 2

sharing of our experience, as well as in capacity building and progress monitoring. The new Agenda will not only shape our development policy, but also generally stimulate our policies abroad and at home. Ultimately, this is all about governance which should be more inclusive: societies will only accept transformation if

The U.S. Senators Ed Markey, Chris Coons, Jeff Merkley and Tom Udallattend show support for Paris climate talks. (AP/Michel Euler) degrees Celsius, the Union will also push for a phase-out of fossil fuel subsidies. The EU will furthermore seek closer cooperation within the G20 on the issues of renewable energy and energy efficiency.

people feel their voices have been heard. And it’s about breaking out of silos. Sustainable development is not just a matter of economics, a social challenge, or an environmental problem: it's all three of them

“The new Agenda will not only shape our development policy, but also generally stimulate our policies abroad and at home.” The goals set in the UN 2030 Agenda are not impossible to attain. To find solutions, we have innovation on our side – that is, if we have the will to act. In Europe we are determined to do this jointly, and we wish to fully engage with the UN in mutual

– and our efforts in each area need to reinforce rather than undermine one another. We have a world to transform, and this common Agenda will show us the way how to go about it.

opinion poll What do you consider the biggest obstacle in achieving the Sustainable Development Goals? Michal Bardiovský,

Markéta Grbavčicová,

When it comes to the successful fulfilment of the Sustainable Development Goals or any other goals set by the United Nations for that matter, we should bear in mind that the United Nations consists of a lot of states with their particular national interests that can be regarded as one of the obstacles per se. If the 17 goals are to achieve at least a rather successful story of the Millennium Development Goals, much more concessions have to be made by the states. The donors should neither reduce foreign aid for the recipient states, on the contrary, they should increase it nor should the states concentrate less on the fossil fuels pollution issue, if we are to ensure the environmental sustainability. However, the fulfilment of the goals depends especially on the major powers’ commitments and this is where it may get stuck.

There are two main obstacles in achieving the Sustainable Development Goals. The first one is financing. Only five countries out of 34 OECD countries were able to meet the UN target of spending a proportion 0.7% of GDP on foreign assistance set in 1970. It is partly caused by the lack of commitment and unwillingness to spend money of tax-payers in a different country, when the country has its own domestic issues. It is the political factor that the politicians are having difficulties thinking beyond their own terms. The second issue is on the other end of the chain, in the developing countries themselves where there is a lack of ownership. Consequently, it creates a disconnection of the goals and the targeted population. However, the SDGs seem to focus on mutual partnerships for the goals more than the MDGs.

Patrik Pivoda,

Balázs Grman,

While solving the world’s biggest civilization challenges, our goals are broad and include some of the most compelling political, economic, social and ecological issues. Unfortunately, this broadness comes with a disadvantage common for many efforts in current world. Lacking sense of priority can in this case doom the entire project. You have these 17 areas, but no one seems to be able to answer a question which one are the most and the least important. Often we want to complete all of them, but in reality we are unable to do so. While critics may argue whether we are ambitious enough, I would argue we are not focused enough and we are not willing to make sacrifices. In the end, unless we want to create another utopian project, prioritization of certain goals would be a necessity.

One of the results of the partially successful implementation of the Millennium Development Goals in terms of reducing poverty is the major growth of urban population in developing countries. Simultaneously with this phenomenon another key problem arose. The excessive resource consumption in developed countries now combines with increase in use of resources in developing countries as well. However, this trend requires a more thorough waste management for the future. Solving the problem of poverty which is crucial for the mankind, proved itself to be a rather short to midterm solution, at least until the resource consumption and its effects can be handled more appropriately. Therefore the greatest challenge in achieving the Sustainable Development Goals is finding the right balance in fulfilling all the goals at the same time because they are interconnected. Concentrating effort on only few of them may undermine the efficiency of the project.

Student of Political Science, Matej Bel University, Slovakia

Student of Political Science, Charles University, Czech Republic

Student of International Development, Mendel University, Czech Republic

Student of International Relations, Matej Bel University, Slovakia

visegrad news czech republic Joining in on the Army Modernization

hungary Budapest Sets out to Compete for Tourists

Additional weaponry should also be provided for the army, air force and reserves. (Carsten Rehder/DPA via AP)

Budapest aims to compete with destinations such as Prague or Barcelona. (Zoltan Balogh/MTI via AP)

ith the continuing uncertainty posed by Russia in the region and the ongoing refugee crisis, the Czech Republic has become the latest European nation to announce the purchase of new weapons to modernize its armed forces. Czech Defense Minister Martin Stropnicky said the procurements would allow the military to take part in NATO exercises and help secure the countryâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s border. The Czech military plans to add armoured personnel carriers and reconnaissance systems as well as technology to prevent cyber attacks to its inventory and other additional weaponry should also be provided for the army, air force and reserves. The Czech government increased its military budget for 2015 by 4.2 percent and is now expected to spend $1.78 billion. The Czech Republic joins a growing list of countries in the region looking to bolster their defence capabilities together with Poland, Nordic and Baltic states. (www.ibtimes.com)

ungary has finalised plans to create a new museum quarter at Budapest's City Park by 2019 that should boost the capital's appeal to international tourists, the project's commissioner said on Monday. Laszlo Baan told a parliamentary hearing the 200 billion forints project would draw an extra 300,000 tourists to Budapest annually, helping it compete with other popular European destinations such as Prague and Barcelona. The entire City Park area, which already includes the Budapest Zoo, Szechenyi thermal baths, extensive green spaces and four museums around its Heroes' Square entrance, will be renovated. The project will include a new National Gallery, a House of Hungarian Music and a state-of-the art restoration and storage building. According to the project's web site, among the international architectural firms involved in the project are Norway's Snohetta which designed part of the 9/11 Memorial Museum in New York and SANAA, the Japanese architects of the Louvre-Lens Museum. (www.reuters.com)

visegrad news Poland Law and Justice Party Wins Majority in the Parliament

slovakia NATO Will Open Logistics Centre

Leader of Eurosceptic Law and Justice party Jaroslaw Kaczynski and partyÂ´s candidate for the Prime Minister Beata Szydlo. (Czarek Sokolowski/AP)

Soldiers line up holding flags of NATO member countries during the opening ceremony of NATO Trident Juncture exercise in Trapani, Italy. (Antonio Calanni/AP)

he conservative Law and Justice party (PIS) won recent parliamentary elections, on 25 October. The result marks the first time that a single party has won enough votes to govern alone since the restoration of democracy in 1989. The party led by Jaroslaw Kaczynski gained 37.58 percent of the votes, giving it a majority in the lower house of Polish parliament with 235 out of 460 seats. Civic Platform (PO) which led Poland's coalition government for the last eight years, won 138 seats or 24.09 percent of the votes. The election winner questions the deal to buy French Airbus Group's army helicopters, saying the contract would only leave "leftovers" for Polish producers. The outgoing government signed a provisional deal with Airbus in April for 50 EC-725 Caracal multi-purpose machines, turning down offers from U.S. Sikorsky and AgustaWestland. The $3 billion contract has yet to be properly signed and PIS has repeatedly reiterated it would rather see the contract awarded to local manufacturers. (www.reuters.com)

ATO gave the green light to the creation of another two logistics centres on the eastern border of the Alliance, one in Slovakia and one in Hungary, during its meeting in Brussels on 8 October. Logistics Centres are a type of small headquarters with around 80 employees, approximately half of whom are nationals of the hosting country. The team at the logistics centre in Slovakia is envisaged to consist of 41 people, including 21 members of the Armed Forces of the Slovak Republic. NATO wants to see the integration team boost its ability for combat, mainly in deploying super-fast reaction units and fast reaction troops. This team should make sure that NATO forces will be received smoothly in Slovakia should they be deployed in the country. They also should coordinate military exercises involving Slovak and NATO military units. The costs will be covered by the Defence Ministry and from NATO budgets. Slovakia is currently preparing to build the necessary infrastructure. (spectator.sme.sk)

Globsec Challenge Countering Kremlin’s

dominance” through a web of capabilities. In order to deal with the challenge, it is therefore essential to understand the full spectrum of tools at Russia’s disposal. We should be alarmed when a $14 billion no-bid Jakub Tomášek: Fellow and Project Coordinator at the Prague Security Studies Institute. contract is won by a Russian state-owned nuclear company ith the end of the on these investments and (Rosatom) to develop nuclear Cold War, imagery operationalised the use of power plants in Paks, Hungary² of decrepit Russian information, integrating it into We should be alarmed when warships driven ashore on its overall strategy. As reflected Latvian organisations receive remote peninsulas, an unpaid in Russia’s latest Military funding from Russkiy Mir conscript army, and low morale Doctrine¹ , it now considers Foundation and conceal the characterized the country’s itself to be engaged in full-scale names of donors, in violation public coverage. But during information warfare, which is of the national law³. We should also be alarmed when the Polish Security Agency warns of an emerging trend for pro-Russian “propaganda-disinformation” campaigning on the Internet⁴. These examples represent a growing phenomenon in the way influence is garnered and can be used as leverage to advance foreign policy agenda. At the present time, we lack sufficient in-depth knowledge of what precisely these soft power vehicles are doing, and where exactly they operate. In the years leading up to the annexation of Crimea, Moscow led a concerted Germany’s foreign minister is meeting his Russian, Ukrainian and French counterparts in effort to acquire as much of an effort to keep up momentum toward fulfilling a peace deal for eastern Ukraine. (Britta Ukraine’s strategic industrial Pedersen/Pool Photo via AP) assets as possible. It routinely leaned on its state-owned its period of underfunding seen as a permanent activity. enterprises as useful extensions of physical capability, Russia Though many of those elements of the state. Over time, these focused its efforts on information are, individually taken, familiar, it entities gain control over critical and other non-kinetic levers. is their holistic combination that assets and infrastructure that Last year in Ukraine, it capitalized is unique, enabling “escalation can be exploited for strategic

Information War

¹ The Military Doctrine of the Russian Federation. Approved on December 25, 2014. http://static.kremlin.ru/media/events/files/41d527556bec8deb3530.pdf ² Zoltan, Simon.“Putin $14 Billion Nuclear Deal Wins Orban Alliance.” Bloomberg Business, January 15, 2014. http://www. bloomberg.com/news/articles/2014-01-14/putin-14-billion-nuclear-deal-wins-orban-alliance ³ Spriņģe, Inga; Motuzaite, Donata; Gailāne, Gunita. 2012 “Spreading Democracy in Latvia, Kremlin Style.” Re:Baltics, March 19, 2012. http://www.rebaltica.lv/en/investigations/money_from_russia/a/606/spreading_democracy_in_latvia_kremlin_style.html ⁴ Czekaj, Matthew. “Russia’s Hybrid War against Poland.” The Jamestown Foundation, April 29, 2015. http://www.jamestown.org/ single/?tx_ttnews[tt_news]=43851&tx_ttnews[backPid]=7&cHash=513dea6e2da23e276d6cc8d3f1d08451#.Vg_D-s5UulB

benefits. The risks and policy concerns present in such deals require significantly greater attention and need to be closely monitored as a form of preemptive measure, especially along Russia’s periphery. The Russian view of “information war” – informatsionnoye protivoborstvo, literally “information confrontation” – is a more comprehensive concept than its literal translation would

practices, societal perceptions, attitudes, and behaviours⁷. It is an ongoing activity aiming to influence and condition perceptions that demoralise both military personnel and civilian populations. The ultimate goal is not necessarily about laying out differing points of view to win an argument, but rather to instrumentalise information in order to achieve a desired effect, which is to test the bottom limit

Russian President Vladimir Putin holds a video conference with the top military brass on a Russian air campaign in Syria. (Mikhail Klimentyev/SPUTNIK) suggest. Khatuna Mshvidobadze, a Senior Associate at the Georgian Security Analysis Centre, outlined its inherent features as follows: Russia views information warfare as a combination of intelligence, counterintelligence, deception, disinformation, electronic warfare, and psychological pressure⁵. More importantly, its doctrine sees information war as permanent “peaceful war”, not necessarily related to military activity⁶. A calculated use (and misuse) of information has then the potential to affect financial markets, business

of the West’s response threshold, and to exploit political/societal divisions (often using local rivalries and resentments). Paradoxically, Russia has been open about its intention to use information warfare as a power projection capability in their key state policy documents. The 2007 Russian Foreign Policy Review is a good place to start (recall the massive cyber-attack on Estonia in 2007 and the invasion of Georgia in 2008). As Russia’s Chief of Defence, General Valery Gerasimov, stated in 2013: “the focus of applied methods of conflict has

altered in the direction of the broad use of political, economic, international, humanitarian, and other non-military measures⁸.” In this context the Russian Federation, as a single country, can combine, integrate, and focus all of these elements of national power. Still, the events that transpired took many in the West by surprise, sweeping aside supposed certainties about the European space and security order. Challenging Russia’s version of these events was mostly reactive. Tactics were adjusted to the information age, the technology of which served as a major force multiplier, benefiting from the speed and outreach of 21st century mass/social media. In the era when trust in institutions has never been lower, many of these messages resonate; while of course, similar relentless focusing on perceived flaws of the West and Ukraine hardly applies to the Russian institutions. Its own public space is a bastion that must be guarded with the aim to maintain cohesion at home while encouraging discord elsewhere. The EU displays a diffident approach as it currently appears ill-equipped to tackle the issue. In 2014, the Commission poured 25 million euros into Euronews, which already broadcasts in 13 different languages including Russian⁹. Its foreign service has put together a joint task force, known as the Mythbusters, which will monitor

⁵ Mshvidobadze, Khatuna. “The Battlefield On Your Laptop”. RFE/RL, March 11, 2011. http://www.rferl.org/content/commentary_battlefield_ on_your_desktop/2345202.html ⁶ Jackson, Laura; Thomas, Timothy; Laity, Mark; Nimmo, Ben, “Information at War: From China’s Three Warfares to NATO’s Narratives.” The Legatum Institute. https://lif.blob.core.windows.net/lif/docs/default-source/publications/information-at-war-from-china-s-threewarfares-to-nato-s-narratives-pdf.pdf?sfvrsn=2 ⁷ NATO StratCom CoE. Analysis of Russia’s Information Campaign Against Ukraine. http://www.stratcomcoe.org/~/media/SCCE/NATO_ PETIJUMS_PUBLISKS_29_10.ashx ⁸ Coalson, Robert. “Top Russian General Lays Bare Putin’s Plan for Ukraine.” HuffingtonPost. September 2, 2014. http://www.huffingtonpost. com/robert-coalson/valery-gerasimov-putin-ukraine_b_5748480.html ⁹ Ragozin, Leonid. “Speaking to the Russophones” openDemocracy. January 21, 2015. https://www.opendemocracy.net/od-russia/leonidragozin/speaking-to-russophones

Moscow’s propaganda manoeuvres, and advise EU and national authorities accordingly¹⁰. However, it only recruited a handful of media and communications experts and no budget has yet been allocated. The EU efforts are largely disproportionate in comparison to the Moscow’s international news broadcaster Russia Today (now renamed ‘RT’) which had a reported budget of over $300 million by 2014 rates and broadcasts to a combined native-speaking population of some 1.5 billion. While Russia has invested heavily in its main media outlets (recently the director of Rossiya Segodnya signed a cooperation agreement with China’s stateowned media for joint reporting projects)¹¹, media organisations in Europe have been cutting

down on news coverage in Russian. Former BBC Russian Service editor Masha Karp has compared the decline in funding for foreign-language broadcasting by the West to “informational unilateral disarmament“¹². In 2011, BBC stopped radio broadcasting in Russian and Ukrainian as a result of budget cuts. This was short-sighted and needs to be reversed, focusing on the languages of communities especially targeted by those who practice disinformation. The United States seems to have taken a more resolute approach as the US Broadcasting Board of Governors has made countering Russian propaganda in Europe and around the globe one of its two investment priorities for the fiscal year

2016¹³. In the longer term, key improvements to threat assessment and crisis response planning should come from better analytical capability. Keir Giles, an associate fellow at Chatham House, noted that the United Kingdom’s decision to close down the Advance Research and Assessment Group in 2010 caused a reduction of British capacity to predict Russia’s actions.¹⁴ Previously known as the Conflict Studies Research Centre, this unit had studied the Soviet Union using open source information for nearly 40 years. Both nationally and within the EU and NATO, there is an urgent need to regenerate the collective ability to understand and analyse what is going on in Russia¹⁵.

Recommendations: - ensure that the Western storyline is resonant and appealing to core values, forming an integral part of our communication approach; - pay closer attention to the economic and financial strategies of Russian state-owned enterprises as a form of non-kinetic lever; - foster critical thinking skills by demonstrating how disinformation works –explain methods of dissemination and frequently used narratives/themes in an innovative way; - support initiatives such as StopFake.org – a community of journalists specialising in identifying and deconstructing disinformation in the Russian and Ukrainian language media – and exchange best practices among other countries vulnerable to crisis and disinformation; - support research in aspects of information warfare (remember – it is a multifaceted concept) – e.g. how to recognise and react to orchestrated “trolling” attacks; - organise surveys to regularly monitor the effect of disinformation on the populations within the Euro-Atlantic space; - revisit legislation to increase the transparency of funding in NGOs and think tanks.

This document was published in the framework of projects run by the Slovak Atlantic Commission and supported by the National Endowment for Democracy and the NATO Public Diplomacy Division.

¹⁰ Tigner, Brooks. “EU sets up unit to counter Russia’s disinformation campaigns”. Janes. August 27, 2015. http://www.janes.com/ article/53881/eu-sets-up-unit-to-counter-russia-s-disinformation-campaigns ¹¹ “China, Russia to boost media cooperation”. Gbtimes. June 26, 2015. http://gbtimes.com/china/china-russia-boost-media-cooperation ¹² Pomerantsev, Peter. and Weiss, Michael. The Menace of Unreality: How the Kremlin Weaponizes Information, Culture and Money. The Institute of Modern Russia. http://www.interpretermag.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/11/The_Menace_of_Unreality_Final.pdf ¹³ Broadcasting Board of Governors. “Fiscal Year 2016 – Congressional Budget Request.” http://www.bbg.gov/wp-content/media/2015/03/ FY2016Budget_CBJ_Final_WebVersion.pdf ¹⁴ House of Commons Defence Committee. Towards the next Defence and Security Review: Part Two – NATO. http://www.publications. parliament.uk/pa/cm201415/cmselect/cmdfence/358/358.pdf ¹⁵ Keir Giles, Philip Hanson, Roderic Lyne, James Nixey, James Sherr and Andrew Wood. “The Russian Challenge.” The Royal Institute of International Affairs. June 2015. https://www.chathamhouse.org/sites/files/chathamhouse/field/field_ document/20150605RussianChallengeGilesHansonLyneNixeySherrWood.pdf

op-eds

Time to Change

not Policies, but Practice Valentina Gevorgyan: Research Associate, Turpanjian Center for Policy Analysis at the American University of Armenia

“It is all down to you, mate.” – John Lennon

he last decade was characterised by a new stage of development in the history of Armenian civil society. This development manifests in a new form of activism expressed through civic initiatives or campaigns. These are, most of the time, driven by youth and their enthusiasm, single-purposed, often against governmental decisions, recognised by spontaneity of action and empowered by social media. For nearly seventy years Armenia has been under the Soviet rule, popular in its delimiting practices of citizen engagement. The state – society relationship of the time was largely characterised by state’s penetration of society through the imposition of rules and forms for civic participation. People were ‘free’ to behave as long as their freedom did not interfere with the overwhelming norms and practices put in place by the one party system. Under the conditions of strong state control over independent social activities,

the Armenian Soviet history however has seen the cases of spontaneous social mobilisation. Some examples

Spitak Earthquake (1988), not to mention the very dissolution of the Soviet Union, which was fuelled by continuous

Demonstrators rest during a weeklong protest rally against a hike in electricity prices in Yerevan, Armenia. (Hrant Khachatryan/PAN Photo via AP) include a gathering of some 100,000 people at the Opera Square in the capital Yerevan to commemorate the 50th anniversary of the Armenian Genocide (1965), a united and coordinated public response to assist the victims of the

demonstrations of one million people for the liberation of the Nagorno Karabagh and Armenia’s subsequent independence. However, it would be naïve not to consider the impact of the Soviet system on the

newly-formed (third) Armenian republic. After gaining its independence, the country witnessed dramatic changes, evident in a refreshed, but highly unpredictable environment. This was exactly the time where the involvement of foreign donors became visible. United States started actively promoting democracy by granting money to Non-Governmental Organisations (NGOs) and thus largely encouraging their establishment. Since 1991, the number of public organisations¹ has grown rapidly in Armenia. But the quantity of institutions unfortunately did not transform into quality of organisational operations. Only about 20% of registered organisations in the country seem to really exist and operate. Thus, despite the presence of hundreds of organisations² in the civil society sector today, their ability to impact policy making is questionable. Perhaps it is due to the low public trust toward NGOs³ in Armenia, or because of the continuous failures of formal entities to instil a change, that a new form of civic expression has been on the rise lately. Since 2007 Armenia has witnessed nearly 40 cases of civic mobilisations, which put forward issues of multiple concerns ranging from preservation of green spaces and cultural heritage to financial and human rights issues. Some of the visible campaigns have been positively resolved, others were resolved negatively, while some are on-going with no final resolution in sight. The campaigns are characterised by the usage of creative and professional techniques. These vary in time frames,

organisational potential, and strategies used to achieve the purpose. The campaigns also encounter different perceptions

process, one that would cut off the roots of the Soviet traditions and the ways things continue being handled, imbrued in

Children hold Armenian Flags as they join others in commemorating the 100th anniversary of Armenian genocide. (John Tlumacki/The Boston Globe via AP) of public at large. One thing, however, that unites them all, is a common vision of changing the overall context of the country. Participants of campaigns express informed dissatisfaction (based on research and analyses) over the absence of the rule of law and arbitrary decision making. Civic campaigns of the last decade show that

corruption and partisanship. Having gone through an extraordinary variety of stages of societal development, including the path from Soviet society to a genetically engineered one⁴, the Armenian civil society now enters a new stage of development with its on-going civic campaigns. In this new stage, the society

“The Armenian civil society now enters a new stage of development with its on-going civic campaigns.” public is no longer satisfied with some short-term changes. Changes in mere policies are absolutely not enough. A change in governmental behaviour is what the Armenian society needs today, and is ready to demand. Public demands for a change of current practice, which has to transform and regenerate itself into a new, fresh and a stable

does not ask for a change over a few policies. It requires a change of practice, based on informed concerns and understanding that it is all down to people to either leave it as it is, or to develop the country into an effectively operating state.

¹ Non-Governmental Organisation in Armenian ² Total number of registered NGOs: 4,150 (as of February 2015), Armenian State Registry ³ Yevgenya Paturyan & Valentina Gevorgyan (2014) Trust towards NGOs and volunteering in South Caucasus: civil society moving away from post-communism?, Southeast European and Black Sea Studies, 14:2, 239-262. ⁴ A term coined by Armine Ishkanian referring to NGOs in “Democracy Building and Civil Society in Post-Soviet Armenia” (2007).

op-eds The Egoistic Leadership of Erdoğan and the Victory of Kurds to Secure

Democracy in Turkey

Nabaz Nawzad Abdullah: PhD. candidate at University Utara Malaysia, Malaysia

ecep Tayyip Erdoğan was once seen as a successful leader. His attitude in tackling the Kurdish issue, his diplomacy and economic vision were praised far beyond Turkish borders. He was a role model for other Middle Eastern and Muslim countries, and had a major influence on the regime changes in Libya, Egypt, Tunisia and elsewhere. His successful leadership made him the most respected and popular leader in the region, and globally recognized as a pro-peace, prodemocracy statesman, and an advocate of the poor. After three terms as the Prime Minister, he became the president of Turkey. Sadly, this success has made him extremely egoistic: he has announced his ambition to transform the political system of the country from Parliamentary to Presidential, apparently dreaming to be a Sultan of the 1,150-room palace in Ankara. The main obstacle in this path was the Pro-Kurdish Peoples’ Democratic Party (HDP). Erdoğan and his AK Party had to secure at least 400 seats in the parliament in order to hold a sufficient majority allowing him to change the Constitution. He had to keep HDP’s preferences under the 10 percent threshold. In order to be able to pass

the intended constitutional changes in the parliament, he focused his electoral campaign on the effort to shoot down the HDP. The ISIS and the PKK were the best tools he had to help him discredit the Party’s popularity.

Selahattin Demirtas, co-chair of the proKurdish Peoples' Democratic Party attends a weekly sit-in of Saturday Mothers during their gathering at Galatasaray Square in Istanbul, Turkey. (AP Photo/Emrah Gurel) Eagerly looking for a reason to break ceasefire with PKK in order to blame the HDP and attract Turkish nationalist voters, Erdoğan’s sole objective was to

push the PKK into a conflict. The situation got a lot worse when both HDP and PKK accused the Turkish government of bombing the HDP rally in Diyarbakir on the eve of June elections. No reaction was given. The HDP managed to step over the 10 percent threshold and for the first time after 12 years Erdoğan was defeated. In fact, the HDP victory was a political tsunami for Erdoğan. For the first time, he was rejected by most of the Kurdish voters. Dissatisfied, Erdoğan started to look for a “justified” revenge against both HDP and PKK. The suicide bombing in the border town of Suruç that killed almost 33 pro-Kurdish activists served Erdoğan’s drive for violence well: to avenge the Suruç bombing, the PKK has accused government to have links with ISIS and killed three Turkish soldiers. As a reply, Erdoğan ordered to strike PKK bases with Turkish F16 warplanes, both within and outside of the Turkish borders. Apart from military operations against PKK bases, he imprisoned hundreds of Kurdish politicians, activists, journalists and overall leftists. This obvious revenge for the democratic victory of the HDP (which ruined Erdoğan’s hopes

to install a presidential system) enforce his political agenda took place in a matter of days. in future, but his aspiration to inside and outside of Turkey has More than hundreds of soldiers, suppress HDP’s preferences dropped significantly, with many policemen, Kurdish fighters and beyond 10% seems rather criticizing the failure of Kurdish even civilians were killed. The implausible, as recent opinion peace agenda, his violation of situation in the South East is polls indicate that HDP is human rights, the civil war in getting worse, with curfew in currently gaining voters (12 – Syria, refugee crises and other towns like Cizre and Hakari. 14%). Erdoğan’s tactics appear to internal problems including Under the justification of have had a reverse impact, and economic downturns, exchange combating the ISIS, Erdoğan his campaign can be expected rate and inflation. In any case, the Kurds are tried to cheat the international to backfire again. The recent the ones rebutcommunity ting Erdoğan’s and cover up “The main obstacle for him to become a Sultan was dreams. The his attacks only way for against Kurds, the Pro-Kurdish Peoples’ Democratic Party (HDP)” Erdoğan to rewhile bombing store his credK u r d i s h it is to immediately fighters who were in fact, the announcement of unilateral stop the violence and embark most effective force fighting ceasefire by PKK and the suicide the terrorist organization. bombing of a pro-Kurdish rally on peace talks with the PKK. Consequently, he faced criticism in Ankara is sure to damage his Furthermore, he needs to reset his political agenda: his vision for his actions, and turned out AKP campaign. to be a very different leader Unfortunately, the freedom of rebirth of the Ottoman Empire would be from the one a very difficult that used to one to realize impersonate in the secuthe solution lar Turkey and to the Kurdish the unstable issue. Middle East. The caHe would also sualties are have to tolerhigh and ate different some Kurdish voices from cities are afvarious oppofected by the sition groups violence; but and clarify his I believe HDP position tohas become wards ISIS. If a champion Erdoğan was of Turkey’s seen as a role d e m o c r a c y. model in the Kurds actualpast, I believe ly saved the he is not a secular sysgood examtem of Turkey President Barack Obama talks with Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan after posing ple of leadand prevented for a family photo at the G-20 summit in Antalya, Turkey. (AP Photo/Lefteris Pitarakis) ership anythe possibility more, and of authoritarthere is a possibility for things to ianism, as Erdoğan’s intention of expression and media is under get even worse. If it were not for was undoubtedly dangerous for attack too. Erdoğan has closed the future of the country. When- social media networks several HDP, I would expect Erdoğan to ever a leader is looking for pow- times in the last two years only. have turned democratic secular er, there is always a possibility According to the Reporters Turkey into an authoritarian Isfor tyranny. Many authoritarian without Borders, Turkey “is lamic country and further destaleaders appear to be successful currently the world's biggest bilize the region. and popular at first, only to end prison for journalists, especially up being dictators. those, who express views critical Erdoğan may still get of the authorities on the Kurdish an opportunity to potentially issue.” Erdoğan’s support both

op-eds

Syria: Russia's backdoor to international cooperation

Fuad Shahbazov: Member of the Board, Center of Security and Strategic Studies, Italy

During his annual state of the nation address Russian President Vladimir Putin said that Russian military in Syria has been fighting for Russia´s security. (AP/Ivan Sekretarev)

he rocket strikes of Russia’s willingness to thwart ISIS (as well determine whether the rockets Caspian Fleet might be as the opposition forces) but really hit their targets or not. Yet perceived as the most also to show growing influence the fact remains that air strikes dramatic phase of the Syrian and capability of Caspian against ISIS and other terrorist intervention. Russian-made military fleet in this region. organizations are simply not SS-N-Kalibr sufficient, as missile rockets we can see “Russia intended not only to show its willingness to flew more from the results thwart ISIS but also to show growing influence and than 1500 km of long term over Iraq and air operations capability of Caspian military fleet in this region.” Iran before led by the US, hitting their France and the targets in Syria. What is Russia’s Taking into consideration that UK. main intention behind launching Russian intervention includes Arguably, the real purpose long-range attacks from the Iran (another Caspian country), behind these strikes is to Caspian Sea? other regional countries will not demonstrate the new Russian By such means Russia be able to stay apart from the weaponry and equipment where intended not only to show its process anymore. It is difficult to NATO countries can see it. It is

necessary to acknowledge that this muscle-flexing managed to achieve its goal and pushed Turkey, US and the leading NATO members to take an adequate reaction. Yet the Russian military power compared to U.S Navy forces in the Mediterranean Sea is not so significant. Russia is most probably willing to become a part of international coalition against global terrorism, and its growing military activity on the eve of the forthcoming G-20 summit is noticeably more than a simple coincidence. Russian Ministry of Defence stated that officially, Moscow is ready for cooperation against the threat of ISIL. It seems that president Putin is trying to avoid the “silent treatment” he received during the last G-20 summit in Australia. According to some, Syrian governmental troops could reclaim parts of the territory lost during the last year with the military support of Russia and Iran. This, however, would whip up the tensions between Russia and the West, as Russia aims to support Assad, given that Syria’s

the al-Nusra Front. Russia would therefore stress the necessity of Assad’s regime for the future of the region, pressuring U.S

A Syrian man weeps on the body of a victim killed by airstrikes believed to be carried out by Russian warplanes. (Ariha Today via AP) to negotiate over the issue and keep Assad in power. Russian military jets are bombing not only ISIS targets, but also positions of the opposition forces, mainly the Free Syrian Army. In fact, the first Russian bombs hit FSA

An image of the silhouette of an airplane superimposed on the Russian flag is a new symbol suggesting fighting for peace in Syria. (AP/Alexander Zemlianichenko) only current alternatives to the established regime are ISIS and

another regional power, Turkey, which is quite reluctant to cooperate with Moscow against ISIS. Taking into account the

targets, not ISIS. This bombing of opposition forces concerns

energy policy cooperation between Moscow and Ankara, such a new challenge will definitely affect the bilateral relations, particularly considering that Russian jets have already violated Turkish airspace twice, while Turkey pushes for an establishment of a no-fly zone in Syria so as to secure its southern borders. However, Ankara is ready to cover its eyes in front of the Russian gamble in Syria, precisely because of their energy cooperation, seeking for the country to become an energy hub. As mentioned above, air strikes carried out by Russia are not enough to defeat the Islamic State, as we have already seen with U.S and France. Russia launched air strikes within the support of Assad’s ground troops, as well as Iran and Hezbollah, because they know the operation may fail very soon, which leaves Moscow with little time left to pressure the West into cooperating with Russia against global terrorism.

strategy council catch-up

European Café in Moldova

Jana Žilková: Head of European Neighbourhood Development Program, Slovak Atlantic Commission

lready the second year consider particularly inspiring the on-line streams. Each debate of European Café project and relatable. bore significance for widely took place in various European Café in Moldova varied audiences of attendees, regions of Moldova in 2015. consisted of 5 outstanding which consisted of mayors, Since its beginning, the project’s speaking tours in 2015. local representatives, farmers, ambition has been to help the The debates were primarily teachers, students and many public in Moldova achieve a conducted in Russian, and others. The on-line streams have better understanding of the aimed to create a rather informal reached an amazing number of transition and views, reaching from 25 EU integration000 to 75 000. Each topic related changes raised new questions and challenges from the audience, many through fostering of which have challenged a communitylife-long experiences level debate of distinguished among trusted speakers working in experts, local their particular fields. community A friendly atmosphere leaders and the induced inspiring, wider public on fruitful and goalkey societal issues, oriented debates which as well as through have resulted in more Fifth European café speaking tour on Agriculture in Şeptelici mutual sharing informed citizens of V4 integration and in creating new experiences and stories. In just atmosphere for open, honest networks. two years, European Café has and interactive discussions, The European Café project become a well-known format where the participants felt was implemented by The of public debates not only in encouraged to express their Slovak Atlantic Commission Moldova’s capital Chisinau, but opinions and ask questions. (SAC) in co-operation with its also in its numerous regions. All tours were devoted to the V4 partners, namely Centre for Moldovan elites exclude vital and well-timed topics Eastern studies (Poland), People most of the regional public from for Moldova’s society such as in Need (Czech Republic), Centre contributing to the country´s EU local development, agriculture, for Euro-Atlantic Integration integration project, making it education and human rights. and Democracy (Hungary), as in turn susceptible to populism The tours have reached well as with Moldova’s partners, and fear. Therefore, the project´s a tremendous number of and financially supported by objective has been to sustain participants attending the the International Visegrad Fund and strengthen the “European debates personally or watching (IVF). Café” brand of discussions as a highly attractive and effective means to engage community leaders and the public in the regions into a constructive public debate. Moreover, special emphasis has been placed on sharing the V4 transformation examples that the Moldovans

CALENDAR DECEMBER 30 Nov – 11 Dec

21st Conference of Parties to the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change (COP21), Paris, France

Human Rights Day Human Rights Day is observed annually on the day of adoption of the Universal Declaration of Human Rights by the UN General Assembly in 1948. This year's Human Rights Day is devoted to the launch of a year-long campaign for the 50th anniversary of the two International Covenants on Human Rights: the International Covenant on Economic, Social and Cultural Rights and the International Covenant on Civil and Political Rights,

Spanish general election Spanish voters will cast their votes to elect the 11th Cortes Generales of the Kingdom of Spain. At stake will be all 350 seats in the Congress of Deputies and 208 of 266 seats in the Senate. Being held 4 years and a month after the 2011 general election, this will be the longest time-span between two general elections since the Spanish transition to democracy

JANUARY 1

Dutch Presidency of the Council of the European Union The Netherlands will take over the Presidency of the European Union, formally the presidency of the European Council, as part of a rotating system amongst the EU member states. At the core of the priorities of the Dutch EU Presidency is better connection between the EU institutions and the 500 million European citizens. As the trust of Europeans in the EU has plummeted, ‘strengthening of democratic legitimacy’ will be one of the key issues for the Netherlands.

25th anniversary of the launch of the Operation Desert Storm in the Persian Gulf. The First Gulf War began by a military offensive against Iraq initiated by U.S.-led coalition in the form of an air campaign. The bombardment followed after Iraqi forces had refused to withdraw from Kuwait until 15 January. The use of force had been already authorized by the UN Security Council in November 1990.

35th anniversary of the release of U.S. hostages from the embassy in Tehran, Iran After 444 days in captivity, the 52 hostages were set free ending the international crisis between Iran and the United States. Following the outbreak of Iranian revolution the U.S. embassy in Tehran and its staff was taken captive. Iranians required that the United States extradite former dictatorial monarch Shah who had been supported by the U.S. during his rule so that he could be prosecuted for his crimes. While Carter administration refused to make any concessions, the hostages were eventually released on the same day as newly elected U.S. president Ronald Reagan was sworn into office sparking speculations that he had been secretly negotiating with Iran.

quiz 1. On 25-27th September 2015, the United Nations General Assembly approved a new Agenda for Sustainable Development. The 2030 Agenda covers 17 Sustainable Development Goals with 169 associated targets. Previous Millennium Development Goals (MDGs) have shown that setting goals can instigate progress across the globe. _______ has made a major contribution to reaching these goals. a) France b) Canada c) The EU d) Australia 2. In November 2015, the European Union and the African Union held a two-day conference which took place in Malta. The Valletta summit on migration ended up with an agreement to create _______ trust fund in order to keep would-be migrants at home. a) $2 billion b) $7 billion c) $10 billion d) $15 billion

5. The ruling Turkish pro-Islamic _______ founded and led by the current president Recep Tayyip Erdogan, won in November´s early elections regaining the Parliamentary majority, following a 'shock' victory. a) Republican People's Party (CHP) b) Peoples' Democratic Party (HDP) c) Justice and Development Party (AKP) d) Nationalist Movement Party (MHP)

3. The world’s largest refugee camp, _______, will reach 25 years of its existence next year. According to the United Nations, it shelters more than 350,000 people.

6. _______ is the vice-chairman of the Law and Justice party, which led two successful campaigns in the presidential and parliamentary elections of 2015. On 16th November 2015, she became the Prime Minister of Poland. She is the first woman to succeed another woman as the head of government in the republic's history.

a) Dadaab in Kenya b) Deir al-Balah Camp in Palestina c) Yida Camp, South Sudan d) Ain al-Hilweh, Lebanon

a) Ewa Kopacz b) Beata Szydlo c) Urszula Gacek d) Joanna Kluzik-Rostkowska

4. _______, a far-right leader, has recently been brought to the public notice, claiming that "Islamist fundamentalism must be annihilated, France must ban Islamist organizations, close radical mosques and expel foreigners who preach hatred in our country as well as illegal migrants who have nothing to do here".

7. According to Legatum Institute´s 2015 Prosperity Index, _______ is the most prosperous country in the world, followed by Switzerland on the 2nd and Denmark on the 3rd place.

a) Bruno Mégret b) Nicolas Bay c) Jean-Gilles Malliarakis d) Marine Le Pen

a) New Zealand b) Costa Rica c) Norway d) Luxembourg 8. Global hackers group Anonymous has recently released a video declaring war on the Islamic State using the

hashtag _______. This hashtag follows its anti-ISIS online campaign called #OpISIS, which began after the Charlie Hebdo massacre in Paris in January. The main aim of this campaign is to publish any internal information gathered from ISIS in order to combat it. a) #13thfriday b) #OpParis c) #PrayForParis d) #RefutingISIS 9. Right after the Nepal earthquake in April 2015, Facebook deployed its “_______” feature, which is activated during natural or man-made disasters in order to quickly determine whether people in the affected geographical area are out of danger. The feature was also used during Pacific Hurricane Patricia in October 2015, and during the Paris attacks in November 2015. a) Disaster Message Board b) I am OK notification c) SafetiPin d) Safety Check 10. India's biggest and most important holiday of the year called _______ took place on 11th of November this year. The celebrations may last for up to five days, during which Indians celebrate with their families, lighting up clay lamps and making fireworks or bonfires. a) Satpura b) Diwali c) Assam d) Lakshmi

correct answers: 1C, 2A, 3A, 4D, 5C, 6B, 7C, 8B, 9D, 10B

INTERNATIONAL AFFAIRS I SECURITY AND DEFENCE

editor-in-chief Project Coordinator language corrections graphic design photography

editorial headlines

Katarína Schwertnerová Ivana Slobodníková Tomáš Grenzner, Aneta Timoranská Adam Cisár SITA, TASR

Katarína Schwertnerová Sylvia Poliaková, Katarína Schwertnerová intreview Katarína Schwertnerová in depth Ján Čverha, Soňa Trojanová EU insight Alžbeta Djurbová visegrad news Anna Przybyll opinion poll Andrea Lechvárová GLOBSEC Challenge Milan Šuplata op-eds Tiago Ferreira Lopes Strategy Council Catch-Up Jana Žilková calendar Lea Sekanová quiz Nikola Kmecová

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