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New York City Market Update Third Quarter 2015 MANHATTAN BROKERAGES East Side | 38 East 61st Street | t: 212.606.7660 Downtown | 149 Fifth Avenue, 4th Floor | t: 212.431.2440

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Cover Property: 1001 PARK AVENUE | $3,295,000 | WEB: 00110372


MANHATTAN MARKET | OVERVIEW CONDOS & CO-OPS The third quarter 2015 market prices were once again propelled by a steady level of demand from the buyer population paired with fewer available units. With 3,534 closed sales this past quarter (9% fewer than prior year), the overall average sales price increased 4% over prior year to $1,736,000. In the analysis presented by three distinct price tiers – under $3M; $3M to $10M; and over $10M – the rising market price trend is evident in the two lower brackets. For all properties sold under $3M, the average sales price was up 7% and the median sales price was higher by 10% with nearly 11% fewer sales in this price segment. Prices under $3M accounted for approximately 87% of total market sales sampled this quarter. The next price tier, $3M to $10M, saw 11% more sales this quarter yearover-year, representing approximately 12% of total sales. The top price tier of units over $10M is where market price weakness is most evident given that this sector of the market has the highest inventory levels. With fewer record setting sale prices in the top 1% of the market, the average sale price for unit sold over $10M dipped 11% while the median sales price fell 16%. MANHATTAN OVERVIEW Number of Closed Sales

UNDER $3M Q3 : 15 3,066

$3M TO $10M

Q3 : 14 % Change 3,447

Q3 : 15

-11%

OVER $10M

Q3 : 14 % Change

424

380

11%

Q3 : 15

Q3 : 14

45

54

TOTAL % Change Q3 : 15 -16%

Q3 : 14 % Change

3,534

3,881

-9%

Average Days on Market

73

74

-1%

Listing Discount

4%

6%

-33%

Average Sales Price

$1,097,000

$1,028,000

7%

$4,914,000

$4,845,000

1%

$16,048,000

$17,935,000

-11%

$1,736,000 $1,667,000

4%

Median Sales Price

$880,000

$800,000

10%

$4,400,000 $4,300,000

2%

$13,000,000

$15,400,000

-16%

$999,000

$911,000

10%

5,303

5,334

-1%

4.4

4.2

5%

Listing Inventory Months of Supply

AVERAGE and MEDIAN SALES PRICE $2,000,000 $1,800,000

The average sales price of all recorded Manhattan unit sales was $1,736,000 which is 5% lower than prior quarter but 4% greater than one year ago. The average sales price remains 8% higher than the lowest measure of the past eight quarterly periods (Q4:2013 average sales price $1,604,000). The median sales price gained 10% from prior year and at $999,000, is the highest median sales price ever posted for Manhattan overall prices.

$1,600,000 $1,400,000 $1,200,000 $1,000,000 $800,000 $600,000 $400,000 $200,000 $0

Q4:13 Q1:14 Q2:14 Q3:14 Q4:14 Q1:15 Q2:15 Q3:15

7000

Average Sales Price

NUMBER OF CLOSED SALES and INVENTORY

Median Sales Price

6000

With historically low levels of supply particularly at the low-end, the number of closed sales declined yearover-year by 9%. The 3,534 closed sales this quarter was just 2% lower than prior quarter. Persistently low inventory, except at the very top of the market, remains far below normalized supply levels of 8,000 to 9,000+/- listings. The inventory measure has been well under 6,000 units seven out of eight quarterly periods dating back to the fourth quarter of 2013.

5000 4000 3000 2000 1000 0

Q4:13

Q1:14

Q2:14

Q3:14

Q4:14

# of Closed Sales

Q1:15

Q2:15

Q3:15

Inventory

Sotheby’s International Realty Manhattan Brokerages


MANHATTAN MARKET | ABSORPTION RATE CONDOS & CO-OPS The overall Manhattan absorption rate stands at 4.4 months which is a rate that signifies a “seller’s market”. The historic range of equilibrium for the market area is 9+/- months. The absorption rate is calculated by taking the total number of currently active listings and dividing by the average number of closed sales over the 6 month period. The lower price segments have been experiencing unrelenting shortages of inventory with units under $1M at 2.6 months supply and units under $2M at 4 months supply. The top two price tiers have absorption rates signifying nearly two years worth of supply at the current pace of sales and remain the tier where buyers have the most choice and less relative competition. As the top market oversupply continues and becomes exacerbated by the arrival of additional new developments, it may be unsustainable for seller’s to remain rigid in price expectations. Less than $1M $1M - $2M

$2M - $4M

$4M - $6M

$6M - $10M $10M - $20M

$20M+

TOTAL

Active Listing Inventory

1,627

1,231

1,111

493

428

261

152

5,303

Average Closed Sales / Month

620

309

181

49

37

13

6

1,215

Months of Supply per Price Category

2.6

4

6.1

10.1

11.6

20.1

25.3

4.4

NUMBER OF ACTIVE LISTINGS

ABSORPTION RATE

30

5%

3% 25

8% 31%

Less than $1M

20

$1M - 2M

9%

$2M - $4M

15

$4M - $6M $6M - $10M

10

$10M - $20M $20M+

21%

5

23%

0 Less than $1M

$1M - 2M $2M - $4M $4M - $6M Absorption

$6M $10M

$10M $20M

$20M+

Historical Equilibirum

AVERAGE DAYS ON MARKET & LISTING DISCOUNT Q4 : 13

Q1 : 14

Q2 : 14

Q3 : 14

Q4 : 14

Q1 : 15

Q2 : 15

Q3 : 15

Average Days on Market

88

86

83

74

85

83

84

73

Listing Discount

5%

6%

3%

6%

7%

6%

4%

4%

100

8%

90

7%

80

6%

70 60

5%

50

4%

40

3%

30

2%

20

1%

10 0

0% Q4:13

Q1:14

Q2:14

Q3:14

Average Days on Market

Q4:14

Q1:15 Listing Discount

Q2:15

Q3:15

AVERAGE DAYS ON MARKET The total number of days a listing is on the active market before an offer is accepted. It is calculated by totaling the total days on market for every closed sale, and dividing the total days by the total number of closed sales. LISTING DISCOUNT The percent change between the original asking (listing) price of a home, and the final sales price of the home. It is calculated by subtracting the sales price from the original listing price, and dividing the result by the original listing price.

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THE ULTRA LUXURY MARKET CO-OPS, CONDOS & TOWNHOUSES OVER $10M Over the third quarter of 2015 there were 69 ultra-luxury sales, slightly more than prior quarter but less than prior year. The average sales price in this market sector was generally steady posting a slight gain of 5% over prior year and a marginal decline over prior quarter of 3%. The highest posted sale price this quarter was $37,940,000 for a condo unit on 1st Avenue on the Upper East Side. Q4 : 13

Q1 : 14

Q2 : 14

Q3 : 14

Q4 : 14

Q1 : 15

Q2 : 15

Q3 : 15

60

62

74

75

69

75

61

69

Average Sales Price

$14,140,000

$16,638,000

$16,931,000

$17,912,000

$23,927,000

$22,138,000

$19,367,000

$18,733,000

Highest Sales Price

$33,000,000

$51,000,000

$70,000,000

$71,300,000

$100,500,000

$91,500,000

$47,800,000

$37,940,000

Number of Closed Sales

NUMBER OF CLOSED SALES and AVERAGE SALES PRICE $30,000,000

80 70

$25,000,000

60 $20,000,000

50 40

$15,000,000

30

$10,000,000

20 $5,000,000

10 0

$0

Q4:13

Q1:14

Q2:14

Q3:14

# of Closed Sales

Q4:14

Q1:15

Q2:15

Q3:15

Average Sales Price

SOTHEBY’S INTERNATIONAL REALTY - MANHATTAN SIGNIFICANT SALES

37 West 70th Street

22 East 81st Street

445 Lafayette Street

Last Asking: $17,950,000

Last Asking: $16,000,000

Last Asking: $14,999,000

*Due to Client confidentiality the final sales price cannot be disclosed.

Sotheby’s International Realty Manhattan Brokerages


MANHATTAN MARKET | CO-OPS & CONDOS CO-OPS Third quarter 2015 co-op prices posted a 10% gain in overall median sales price to $780,000 although the average sales price slipped 2% to end at $1,273,000. By percentages, market increases were strongest in the lower price sector where 93% of the sales transpired. The under $3M price bracket showed gains of 9% in average sales price and 11% in median sales price. For co-op in the price tier ranging from $3M to $10M, the measures showed decreases off of prior record high prices. Within the top tier co-op price bracket, over $10M, fewer record sale prices caused significant declines in the figures with 30% drops in both the average and median sales prices. UNDER $3M

CO-OPS

Q3 : 15

Number of Closed Sales

1,822

$3M TO $10M

2,099

OVER $10M

TOTAL

Q3 : 15

Q3 : 14

% Change

Q3 : 15

Q3 : 14

% Change

Q3 : 15

Q3 : 14

% Change

-13%

134

130

3%

9

21

-58%

1,965

2,250

-13%

Q3 : 14 % Change

Average Sales Price

$950,000 $874,000

9%

$4,555,000

$4,809,000

-5%

$14,199,000

$20,218,000

-30%

Median Sales Price

$740,000 $665,000

11%

$4,150,000

$4,500,000

-8%

$11,053,000

$15,750,000

-30%

NUMBER OF CLOSED SALES

-2%

$1,273,000 $1,295,000 $780,000

10%

$ 707,000

AVERAGE and MEDIAN SALES PRICE

2500

$1,600,000 $1,400,000

2000

$1,200,000 $1,000,000

1500

$800,000

1000

$600,000 $400,000

500

$200,000 $0

0 Q4:13

Q1:14

Q2:14

Q3:14 Q4:14 Q1:15 # of Closed Sales

Q2:15

Q4:13

Q3:15

Q1:14 Q2:14 Q3:14 Average Sales Price

Q4:14 Q1:15 Q2:15 Median Sales Price

Q3:15

CONDOS Manhattan overall condo sales showed gains with the average sales price rising 6% to $2,340,000; the average price per square foot reaching 2% higher to $1,591; and the median sales price rising 13% to $1,500,000. Within the three distinct price tiers, the trend this quarter of higher percentages on the low end and falling percentages on the high end continued. The average sales price declined 5%; the median sales price decreased 8%; and the average price per square foot fell 18% for units over $10M. UNDER $3M

CONDOS Number of Closed Sales Average Sales Price Average PPSF

Q3 : 15

Q3 : 14

1,244

1,348

$1,310,000 $1,269,000

$1,392

Median Sales Price

$1,329

$1,750,000 $1,100,000

$3M TO $10M

% Change Q3 : 15 -8% 3% 5% 7%

289

Q3 : 14

Q3 : 15

250

16%

$5,069,000 $4,864,000

$2,163

OVER $10M

% Change

$2,315

$4,533,000 $4,202,000

TOTAL

Q3 : 14

% Change

Q3 : 15

36

33

10%

1,570

4%

$15,922,000

$16,745,000

-5%

-7%

$3,817

$4,642

-18%

$1,591

$1,567

2%

8%

$13,350,000

$14,500,000

-8%

$1,500,000

$1,325,000

13%

NUMBER OF CLOSED SALES

Q3 : 14 % Change 1,631

$2,340,000 $2,288,000

-4% 6%

AVERAGE and MEDIAN SALES PRICE

1800

$3,000,000

1600 $2,500,000

1400 1200

$2,000,000

1000

$1,500,000

800 600

$1,000,000

400

$500,000

200

$0

0 Q4:13

Q1:14

Q2:14

Q3:14

Q4:14

# of Closed Sales

Q1:15

Q2:15

Q3:15

Q4:13 Q1:14 Q2:14 Q3:14 Q4:14 Q1:15 Q2:15 Q3:15 Average Sales Price Median Sales Price

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NEIGHBORHOOD BREAKDOWN UPPER EAST SIDE north of 58th Street and south of 96th Street, Fifth Avenue to East End Avenue The average co-op price of $1,544,000 was a 19% decline from prior year while the median co-op price increased 9% to $925,000. The average and median condo prices fell 14% and 12% respectively. As with co-ops in this market area, there were far less closings in the top 1% driving prices lower than prior record highs.

CO-OPS

CONDOS

Q3 : 15

Q3 : 14

% Change

551

566

-3%

# Closed Sales

Average Sales Price

$1,544,000

$1,906,000

-19%

Median Sales Price

$925,000

$850,000

9%

# Closed Sales

Q3 : 15

Q3 : 14

% Change

204

255

-20%

Average Sales Price

$2,624,000

$3,054,000

-14%

Median Sales Price

$1,425,00

$1,625,000

-12%

UPPER WEST SIDE north of 58th Street and south of 110th Street, Central Park West to Riverside Drive The total number of co-op sales on the Upper West Side was 364, a decrease of 19% from prior year. Co-ops in this market area posted an average sale price of $1,400,000, a marginally lower price than prior year. The average condo sales price was $2,329,000, representing an 11% drop from prior year. However, the median condo sales price was largely unchanged and ended the quarter at $1,565,000.

CO-OPS

CONDOS

Q3 : 15

Q3 : 14

% Change

364

447

-19%

# Closed Sales

Average Sales Price

$1,400,000

$1,428,000

-2%

Median Sales Price

$865,000

$860,000

1%

# Closed Sales

Q3 : 15

Q3 : 14

% Change

295

281

5%

Average Sales Price

$2,329,000

$2,612,000

-11%

Median Sales Price

$1,565,000

$1,558,000

0%

MIDTOWN north of 34th Street and south of 57th Street The average co-op sales price in this market area increased 9% to $935,000 while the median co-op sales price rose to $660,000, a strong 10% increase over prior year. The average and median condo sales prices also posted gains with an 8% increase and 22% increase, respectively. The number of condo closings increased 14% as new development projects continued to meet adequate demand and absorption of available units.

CO-OPS

Q3 : 15

Q3 : 14

% Change

323

370

-13%

Average Sales Price

$935,000

$859,000

9%

Median Sales Price

$660,000

$600,000

10%

# Closed Sales

CONDOS

Q3 : 15

Q3 : 14

% Change

341

300

14%

Average Sales Price

$2,140,000

$1,976,000

8%

Median Sales Price

$1,400,000

$1,150,000

22%

# Closed Sales

UPTOWN north of 96th Street on the East Side and north of 110th Street on the West Side The average sales price of co-op sales was higher by 19%, reaching $541,000. The median sales price increase was just as impressive with a 25% rise to $500,000. Market measures were also higher in the condo sector with double digits gains. The average condo sales price reached $762,000, 14% higher than prior year. The median condo price elevated to $622,000, a 13% increase from prior year.

CO-OPS

CONDOS

Q3 : 15

Q3 : 14

% Change

147

199

-26%

# Closed Sales

Average Sales Price

$541,000

$455,000

19%

Median Sales Price

$500,000

$399,000

25%

# Closed Sales

Sotheby’s International Realty Manhattan Brokerages

Q3 : 15

Q3 : 14

% Change

144

150

-4%

Average Sales Price

$762,000

$666,000

14%

Median Sales Price

$622,000

$550,000

13%


NEIGHBORHOOD BREAKDOWN DOWNTOWN south of 34th Street through Tribeca The 567 co-op sales in the third quarter of 2015 was a decline of 14% as compared to prior year. However co-op price measures were much higher with a 17% gain in the average sales price and an 8% gain in the median sale price. Huge gains were evident in condo price measures with a 37% increase in the average price of a condo; and a 46% increase in the median condo sale price. There were far more ultra-luxury condo units sold in the current quarter than the third quarter of 2014, resulting in these large gains.

CO-OPS

CONDOS

Q3 : 15

Q3 : 14

% Change

567

657

-14%

# Closed Sales

Average Sales Price

$1,253,000

$1,072,000

17%

Median Sales Price

$785,000

$730,000

8%

# Closed Sales

Q3 : 15

Q3 : 14

% Change

388

492

-21%

Average Sales Price

$3,403,000

$2,493,000

37%

Median Sales Price

$2,200,000

$1,510,000

46%

FINANCIAL DISTRICT | BATTERY PARK CITY There were 198 condo units closed in the third quarter of 2015, a 29% improvement over prior year. This market area also had substantially higher average and median sale prices year-over-year. The average sales price of $1,511,000 was a 30% increase while the median sales price ascended 25% to $1,235,000.

CO-OPS

CONDOS

2Q : 15

2Q : 14

% Change

12

11

10%

# Closed Sales

Average Sales Price

$1,265,000

$714,000

77%

Median Sales Price

$1,225,000

$589,000

108%

# Closed Sales

Q3 : 15

Q3 : 14

% Change

198

153

29%

Average Sales Price

$1,511,000

$1,161,000

30%

Median Sales Price

$1,235,000

$990,000

25%

AVERAGE SALES PRICE

TOTAL NUMBER OF SALES 1400

1400 1400

1400$3,000,000 1400

1200

1200 1200

1200 1200 $2,500,000

1000

1000 1000

1000 1000 $2,000,000

800

800 800

600 400 200 0

600 400 200 0

Q3:13

600

800 $1,500,000 600

400

$1,000,000 400

200

200

0

0

$500,000 $0

Q4:13 Q1:14 Q2:14 Q3:14 Q4:14 Q1:15 Q2:15 Q3:15 Q4:13Q3:13 Q1:14Q4:13 Q2:14Q1:14 Q3:14Q2:14 Q4:14Q3:14 Q1:15Q4:14 Q2:15Q1:15 Q2:15 Q3:13

Upper East Side Upper EastMidtown Side Upper East Side Midtown Downtown Midtown Downtown Downtown

800 600 400 200 0

Q4:13Q3:13 Q1:14 Q2:14 Q3:14 Q4:14 Q1:15 Q2:15 Q3:15 Q2:15 Q4:13 Q1:14Q4:13 Q2:14Q1:14 Q3:14Q2:14 Q4:14Q3:14 Q1:15Q4:14 Q2:15Q1:15

Upper West Side Upper East Side Upper East Side Upper East Side Upper West SideUpper West Side Uptown Midtown Midtown Midtown Uptown Financial Uptown District / Battery Park City Downtown Downtown Financial DistrictFinancial / BatteryDistrict Park City / Battery Park City Downtown

UpperWest WestSide Side Upper Upper West Side Uptown Uptown Uptown Financial Financial / /Battery Park / Battery Park City FinancialDistrict District BatteryDistrict ParkCity City

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MARKET COMPARISONS Comparing the third quarter of 2014 and the third quarter of 2015, all three markets showed an increase in price per sq. ft. with San Francisco seeing the largest increase at 11%, Los Angeles at 6% and New York City at 2%. However, comparing this quarter and last quarter, both San Francisco and New York City price per sq. ft. decreased 4% and 2% respectively while Los Angeles continued its gain by 4%.

AVERAGE PRICE PER SQ. FT. | CONDOS ONLY $1,800 $1,600 $1,400 $1,200 $1,000 $800 $600 $400 $200 $0 Q4:13

Q1:14

Q2:14

Q3:14

New York City

Q4:14 San Francisco

Q1:15

Q2:15

Q3:15

Los Angeles

SOTHEBY’S INTERNATIONAL REALTY - ON THE MARKET, AROUND THE WORLD

PARIS, FRANCE | $9,382,330

PUHKET, THAILAND | $16,000,000

WEB: 3MBWXL

WEB: JXVQ23

WEB: 6MCHP8

Paris Ouest Sotheby’s International Realty

Hunter Sotheby’s International Realty

Summit Sotheby’s International Realty

Sotheby’s International Realty Manhattan Brokerages

PARK CITY, UTAH | $15,995,000


FEATURED LISTINGS

LIMESTONE MANSION | $50,000,000

FIFTH AVENUE STYLE | $10,000,000

196 SIXTH AVENUE, 1F | $2,250,000

9 BR / 5.4 BA | WEB: 00110315

3 BR / 4 BA | WEB: 00110043

2 BR / 2 BA | WEB: 0138062

Stan Ponte | 212.606.4109

Nikki Field | 212.606.7669

Jeremy V. Stein | 212.431.2427 Jennifer Lanza | 212.810.4960

684 PARK AVENUE | $34,000,000

510 PARK AVENUE | $12,800,000

230 CENTRAL PARK SOUTH | $11,900,000

20 ROOMS | WEB: 00110358

3 BR / 5.5 BA | WEB: 0019871

2 BR / 4 BA | WEB: 00110291

Serena Boardman | 212.606.7611

J. Roger Erickson | 212.606.7612

Pauline Evans | 212.400.8740 Pamela O’ Connor | 212.606.7709 Rebecca Cavallaro | 212.606.7641

1 JOHN STREET, PHA | $7,011,474

25 NORTH MOORE, 2A | $6,000,000

874 BROADWAY| $2,200,000

BROOKLYN | 4 BR / 4 BA | WEB: 0137850

2 BR / 2.5 BA | WEB: 0138018

1 BR / 1 BA | WEB: 0138024

Karen Heyman | 212.810.4990

Joshua Judge | 212.431.2476

Jonathan Hettinger | 212.810.4953

Alan Heyman | 212.810.4991

Philip McCarthy | 212.810.4954 Michael Quinn | 212.431.2475

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END NOTES A MESSAGE FROM OUR MANAGERS: Traditional third quarter stats reflect properties which have gone under contract in the spring and early summer. According to the Vanderbilt Appraisal Report, the third quarter of 2015 saw a drop in both the number of showings and properties being offered for sale compared to the third quarter of 2014. The number of buyers in the $3M and below range increased due to interest rates remaining low, prompting buyers to act now. On the selling front, when the property is priced to the market, sellers of studios, one and two bedrooms are receiving multiple offers. In the higher price points over $3M, a significant amount of new development properties are hitting the market and vying for the same buyers as the resale listings across New York City. Buyers and sellers in the luxury and ultra-luxury markets find themselves conflicted, as sellers are reluctant to adjust pricing to match the competition and buyers are seeking to negotiate hard to make a deal. We look forward to an active fall 2015 market.

EAST SIDE MANHATTAN BROKERAGE

DOWNTOWN MANHATTAN BROKERAGE

Ellie Johnson Senior Vice President, Brokerage Manager

Diane Levine Senior Vice President, Brokerage Manager

t: 1.212.606.7660 38 East 61st Street | New York, New York 10065

t: 1.212.431.2440 149 Fifth Avenue, 4th Floor | New York, New York 10010

WALKER TOWER, 212 WEST 18TH STREET | $70,000,000 | WEB: 0137804

© MMXV Sotheby’s International Realty, Inc. All Rights Reserved. All information in this report is provided by Vanderbilt Appraisal Company and other third party reports. This material is based upon information which we consider reliable but because it has been supplied by third parties, we cannot represent that it is accurate or complete and it should not be relied upon as such. This offering is subject to errors, omissions, changes including price or withdrawal without notice. If your property is listed with a real estate broker, please disregard. It is not our intention to solicit the offerings of other real estate brokers. We are happy to work with them and cooperate fully. Sotheby’s International Realty and the Sotheby’s International Realty logo are registered (or unregistered) service marks used with permission. Operated by Sotheby’s International Realty, Inc. Real estate agents affiliated with Sotheby’s International Realty, Inc. are independent contractor sales associates and are not employees of Sotheby’s International Realty, Inc. Equal housing opportunity.

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ON THE MARKET

left to right from top to bottom:

METROPOLITAN MARKETS NEW YORK, NY | Web: 0019986 | $4,995,000 SAN FRANCISCO, CA | Web: 0087588 | $5,250,000 HOUSTON, TX | Web: 1250301 | $5,499,000 RESORT MARKETS CARMEL, CA | Web: 0474151 | $5,495,000 PALM BEACH, FL | Web: 0076501 | $4,950,000 MONTECITO, CA | Web: 0113874 | $5,000,000 FOREIGN MARKETS BELIZE | Web: ZJWCRR | $5,995,000 COSTA RICO | Web: 5HW2RZ | $5,900,000 SPAIN | Web: 3FV283 | $5,880,376 sothebysrealty.com


AUCTION CALENDAR OCTOBER | NOVEMBER 2015 American Paintings, Drawings and Sculpture New York 02 Oct Modern and Contemporary Asian Art Evening Sale Hong Kong 04 Oct Photographs New York 07 Oct RM Sotheby’s: Hershey Hershey 08 – 09 Oct Property from a Distinguished Private Asian Collection New York 15 Oct Château Margaux 1900–2010 Direct From The Cellars: A Celebration of the Mentzelopoulos Era New York 17 Oct Collections: European Decorative Arts New York 17 Oct The Creative Genius of Sam Simon: A Lifetime of Memorabilia New York 22 Oct Impressionist & Modern Art Evening Sale New York 05 Nov Contemporary Art Evening Auction New York 11 Nov

American Art New York 18 Nov Latin America: Modern Art Latin America: Contemporary Art New York 19 – 20 Nov Prints & Multiples New York 23 – 24 Nov

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Finest and Rarest Wines New York 14 Nov

New York City Market Update | Q3 2015  
New York City Market Update | Q3 2015