Sinoship Summer Issue 2013 by Splash

Anchor handlers focus Ship recycling special Summer 2013

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Bubbling rice importsÂ

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Grand China Logistics In contrite mood

Pacific Basin ceo interview Crewing poll HK port strike fallout Crystal ball time: Chinese shipping in 2030

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CONTENTS ■ ■ ■

■ ■ ■ Regulars 3 Editor’s Comment 4 Economy 7 Lines

Now is possibly one of the best chances for shipowners to order new ships

— Ren Yuanlin, Yangzijiang Shipbuilding

9 Yards 11 Offshore

I don’t recollect in any 70-day period seeing as many capesizes being ordered in the recent past

13 Finance 15 Commodities 16 Logistics 17 Cruise

■ ■ ■ Profiles 19 Li Xiaoming 21 Matts Berglund

— Ravindranath Raghunath, Noble Group

It’s best to be good at one or two things, rather than average at four or five things

22 George Xiradakis

— Mats Berglund, Pacific Basin

23 Douglas Hsu

■ ■ ■ Features

Everyone is talking about whose costs are lower

24 Ship recycling 27 Crewing 31 Fuels & lubes

■ ■ ■ Hubs 33 Shanghai 34 Taipei 35 Hong Kong

■ ■ ■ Reviews 36 Books

The huge seabound trade to and from China and the need to be frugal in these recessionary times has increased demand for Chinese crew — Kishore Rajvanshy, Fleet Management

■ ■ ■ Opinions 37 Andrew Craig-Bennett 38 Max Hong 39 Li Deng Bai

— Douglas Hsu, Far Eastern Group

The debate on bunkers will become more polarised in the coming two to three years — Douglas Raitt, Fobas Sinoship   Summer 2013

UP FRONT ■ ■ ■

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An ASM publication EDITORIAL DIRECTOR Sam Chambers sam@asiashippingmedia.com CHIEF CORRESPONDENT Katherine Si katherine@asiashippingmedia.com CORRESPONDENT Jason Jiang jason@asiashippingmedia.com BEIJING Li Deng Bai SHANGHAI Engen Tham HONG KONG Alfred Romann DALIAN Mark Downing GUANGZHOU Wang Fanglei TAIPEI Joshua Samuel Brown CONTRIBUTORS Bei Hong, Charles De Trenck, Matthew Flynn, Paul French, Max Hong, Li Dong, Manish Singh, Andrew Craig-Bennett PHOTOGRAPHERS André Eichman, Basil Pao, Cover: HNA Group All editorial material should be sent to sam@asiashippingmedia.com or mailed to Office 701, 9 Renmin Lu, Zhongshan District, Dalian, China 116001 COMMERCIAL DIRECTOR Grant Rowles grant@asiashippingmedia.com CHINA SALES DIRECTOR Tom Wu sales@asiashippingmedia.com SinoShip advertising agents are also based in Japan, Korea and Scandinavia — to contact a local agent email grant@asiashippingmedia.com for details. Media kits are available TO download at:

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Copyright © Asia Shipping Media Pte Ltd (ASM), 2013 www.asiashippingmedia.com Although every effort has been made to ensure that the information contained in this review is correct, the publishers accept no liability for any inaccuracies or omissions that may occur. All rights reserved. No part of the publication may be reproduced, stored in retrieval systems or transmitted in any form or by any means without prior written permission of the copyright owner. For reprints of specific articles contact grant@asiashippingmedia.com. Twitter: @sinoship Linked In: SinoShip China Shipping Network

China in 2030 – ‘the maritime marketplace’ “Prophecy is a good line of business, but it is full of risks.” So said author Mark Twain. Sticking their necks out are British institutions Lloyd’s Register, QinetiQ and the University of Strathclyde in their April launched report, Global Marine Trends 2030. Demographics will ensure shipping will be prosperous come the year 2030, the study suggests. The report sees seaborne trade increasing from 9bn tonnes annually to between 19-24bn tonnes. 2030 could usher in a world where China would own a quarter of the merchant fleet, growing from 15% in 2010 to 19% to 24% in 2030 rivalling Greece and the rest of Europe. “China’s manufacturing sector will be under pressure to transform from labourintensive to higher productivity business,” the study suggested. The world’s middle class in 2030 is likely to grow 40-50% from 2010 levels, with China and India counting for nearly two-thirds of this growth. By 2030, China’s middle class will be the second largest, after the US. GDP rankings per city see China to the fore once again. Shanghai will jump from 19th to third in the world’s city economic rankings. Four Chinese cities — Beijing, Tianjin, Shenzhen and Guangzhou — will be newcomers in the top 20 list come 2030. All this demographic change will bring big changes to resources demand. China could triple its oil demand, for instance, surpassing the US as the world’s largest oil consumer. Natural gas consumption, meanwhile, will see China showing the largest growth. In coal, China and India will lead the pack. Around 60% of coal consumption will come from China by 2030, not a good marker for those already concerned with China’s horrendous air quality. China’s steel consumption growth will slow down, but will remain the number one consumer in 17 years’ time. Tanker owners should take note that the British trio reckon the largest increase in seaborne oil trade will come the Arabian Gulf, Black Sea, and Latin America to China and elsewhere in Asia. Middle East to China crude oil seaborne trade is set to grow by 4.5 times from 2010 levels of 126m tonnes to a huge 571m tonnes in 2030. As with so much else in this demographic -led report India and China will lead

growth in LNG imports through to 2030. China’s containership share will rise from 18.3% in 2010 to 20.5% to 27.2% in 2030. When it comes to shipbuilding China is poised to smash home its advantage, claims the study, more than doubling its output. Summarising the 144-page report, Lloyd’s Register noted in a press release: “The China factor will still be the big story in 2030. China, consuming three times-as-much oil as it does today and 60% of the world’s coal, will be the marketplace for maritime trade.” Issues we have with this in-depth report are the lack of analysis on the genuine game changer that is fracking. Both the US and China have potentially huge reserves of gas buried deep, which when sourced will mitigate the needs for energy imports. Likewise, given that the report, quite rightly, is so predicated on demographics, the incredible growth in Chinese shipbuilding volumes seems extremely bullish and at odds with China’s rise up the rich ranks. Still, as Edgar Fielder wrote in his 1977 book, The Three Rs of Economic Forecasting — Irrational, Irrelevant and Irreverent: “He who lives by the crystal ball soon learns to eat ground glass.”

Sam Chambers Editor sam@asiashippingmedia.com Sinoship   Summer 2013

Economy ■ ■ ■

Spending power Beijing is trying to get its citizens to spend. They remain thrifty, says Paul French It seems that most analysts are now downwardly revising their full-year China GDP growth forecasts to approximately 7.6-7.8% from the majority start-of-the-year forecasts of about 8%. Most had hoped for better growth in the first half of the year. The good news is that many believe that China’s economy will pick up from its current sluggishness in the second half of the year and, though overall the PRC’s economy is decelerating growth, it seems that Beijing is happy with this. There have been no suggestions of any major new stimulus packages to kick-start higher GDP growth this year. The government remains wedded in policy terms to higher domestic consumption growth to rebalance the economy away from an overreliance on exports and inward investment. But the policy is proving harder and harder to implement as consumers, crucially the emerging middle class, prove to be difficult to persuade to spend more in many sectors. Retail sales disappointed in the first quarter, largely because nominal urban wage growth slowed to 8.3% year-on-year compared to 13.8% a year ago, according to the National Bureau of Statistics. While wages for both unskilled and skilled workers rose faster in Q1 than in the previous quarter, labour markets were tighter in Q1 than in the previous quarter. White collar wages (where the bulk of the middle class reside) rose just 4-5% year-on-year. 4

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The government, short of the aforementioned stimulus package, which has been ruled out, have a few levers to pull to stimulate consumption. Banks are issuing more credit cards and multiple card ownership is now increasingly common in many major cities as shown below. But an uptick in credit, if it’s not promptly repaid, could simply store up more debt in the system to add to the widespread local government debt already troubling many economists observing China. This is not showing through in the system yet and inflation remains modest – China’s CPI rose by 2.1% year-on-year in March and 2.4% for the first quarter, down from 3.8% in the first quarter of last year. China is still investing in the future though. Infrastructure spending was strong in the first quarter of the year, rising 23% year-on-year, significantly higher than most analyst forecasts. However, the industrial sector has disappointed. The value-added of China’s industry (VAI) sector rose by only 9.5% year-on-year in the first quarter, down from 11.6% in the first quarter last year. This was despite arguably cheaper industrial costs — Chinese industrial firms saw softer input price pressure with the index for industrial raw materials and fuel costs down 2% yearon-year in March and 1.9% in February, compared to a 0.1% growth a year ago. However, while residential property development and

PAY LATER Banks are issuing more credit cards

manufacturing for domestic use slowed, exports overseas rose 18.4% year-on-year during the first quarter of the year, up from 7.6% a year ago, while imports rose 8.4% in in the first few months of this year compared to 6.8% in the first quarter of last year. One problem is that so much of this export growth is centred on the coastal provinces – approximately 80% — and it had been hoped that the inland provinces, and the shift of manufacturing inland, would

have helped drive up overall exports and reduce the wealth imbalance between the coastal areas and the hinterland. Still, perhaps this will change. The single largest areas of growth in exports were Sichuan province and Chongqing municipality. Though it is taking a long time to filter through it might just be that the inland is starting to take off and fulfil its promise of better industrial economic performance.

Credit card possession, by city One More than one None % % % Beijing 38 58 4 Shanghai 38 61 1 Guangzhou 36 59 5 Chengdu 58 33 9 Nanjing 47 47 5 Base: 1,500 internet users 20+ who are classified as middle class, April 2013 Source: QQSurvey/Mintel

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LINES ■ ■ ■ treatment’ category on the Shanghai stock market, following a net loss of RMB1.88bn for 2012, its second straight year of red ink. Several securities companies reckon that there is a significant uncertainty surrounding the company’s future operating capability. Creditors have seized a number of vessels. CSC Phoenix said it will lay off employees and adjust its fleet structure.

More tumultuous times for Nobu Su’s TMT. Su (pictured) stepped down as chief executive in March, becoming executive chairman. A number of the Taiwan owner’s ships have been arrested in the past quarter with creditors baying for more to be sold off.

Shandong Shipping Corporation signed with Qingdao Beihai Shipbuilding Industry at the beginning of May to construct four 250,000dwt very large ore carriers. Shandong Shipping had earlier signed a 10-year iron ore shipping contract with Australian mining conglomerate BHP Billiton.

Hyundai Heavy Industries of Korea has won a contract from China Shipping Container Lines (CSCL) to build five 18,400 teu containerships. CSCL is paying around $140m per ship. The ships will be the largest boxships in the world when they deliver in early 2015. CSCL is also getting rid of its smaller ships, announcing the scrapping of ten old 1,000 teu vessels, taking advantage of

The listed shares of CSC Phoenix, another subsidiary of CSC Sinotrans, have officially gone into the ‘special

Trucking consolidation Exclusive repair data SPRING 2013

Grand China Shipping, one of the subsidiaries of Shanghaibased Grand China Logistics, was liquidated by Hong Kong’s High Court following a petition by Shagang Shipping. Shagang was still owed $58m in arrears following a London arbitration last year. Grand China Shipping also owes many other parties charter hires, shipbroker commissions and more.

Nanjing Tanker, the tanker arm of CSC Sinotrans, officially suspended its listing on Shanghai Stock Exchange (SSE) from May 14. It had already suspended the trading of its shares from April 22. It made a loss of RMB1.24bn in 2012. Three MR tankers, two LPG carriers and four asphalt carriers have been put up for sale.

Chongqing-based Minsheng Shipping’s IPO review was terminated at the start of May by the China Securities Regulatory Commission (CSRC). The shipping company pre-announced its initial Shanghai IPO plans on the website of CSRC in May 2012. Shipping shares in China have gone through very tough times of late.

Chengxi Shipyard has just welcomed back one of its most prestigious owners as a client. Hong Kong’s Wah Kwong Maritime Transport Holdings signed on 8 April for four plus four options of SDARI’s 64,000dwt bulker design. The Dolphin 64 ship design is one of the most widely touted eco-ships on China’s shipbuilding menu.

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Eye on jack-up rigs

Beijing’s new scrapping subsidy for older tonnage.

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Wah Kwong

Sabrina Chao takes the chair

Your chance to reach the right audience Project shippers focus on Africa Henna sets sail: HNA Tourism head speaks Hosco’s Gao Yangming: China’s scrapping champion E-commerce: How Chinese online retail will lead the world

This magazine is being read by every major shipowner and shipyard across Greater China. Features in Issue 3 include ports, law and LNG. Contact grant@asiashippingmedia.com for advertising details

Sinoship   Summer 2013

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YARDS ■ ■ ■

BARGAIN BUY Desperate shipyard bosses are acting like used car salesman

Step right up, come and get ‘em Shipyard bosses would have you believe prices are at rock bottom, bargains to be had. Are they? Like used car salesmen prowling the forecourt shipbuilders have been exhorting passers by that prices are now at unimaginable bargains. Are they? And have they hit rock bottom? The jury is still out. “Now is possibly one of the best chances for shipowners to order new ships. The bottom of newbuilding prices has been reached and prices have firmed by 3-5% since the last quarter of 2012,” Ren Yuanlin, executive chairman of Singaporelisted Yangzijiang Shipbuilding, claimed in late April. Ren’s comments were echoed a month later by Chen Qiang, ceo of Rongsheng Heavy Industries, who stressed after the company’s annual shareholders meeting that global newbuilding prices have hit their lowest point, and will not decline further. Begging to differ were analysts at Danish Ship Finance (DSF) who published a detailed report in late April claiming newbuild prices could fall by as much as 10% by the end of 2013. DSF believes newbuilding prices could bottom out at around bottom $1,450 per compensated gross tonne, which is just above lows seen in 2002. DSF expects small and

medium-sized yards, particularly in China, to run out of orders this year and next, which means global yard capacity could return to levels logged in 2008 by the end of 2014. Going forward DSF suggests between 20 and 30% of the world’s shipbuilding capacity will disappear due to yard closures in the years ahead as it doesn’t believe contracting activity will be strong enough to fill empty slots. On the current plight faced by shipbuilders SinoShip contributor Matthew Flynn does not mince his words, saying there is “dramatic overcapacity”. “The yards are hungry so they are pulling out the stops to build ships that are efficient rather than playing the game of efficient shipbuilding,” the managing director of

46.8

Price paid in millions of dollars per capesize by Sincere Navigation last month, a record low for Shanghai Waigaoqiao Shipbuilding

online shipbuilding database, Worldyards, explains, before adding: “More ship for the buck rather than building more ships.” What is undeniable is that orders have flooded in to yards in astonishing levels this year. Chinese shipbuilders saw a surge in orders for the first four months of this year, with new orders standing at 11.57m dwt, an increase of 57% yearon-year, according to the statistics released by the China Association of the Naional Shipbuilding Industry (CANSI). However, the total profit of China’s 80 major shipbuilders stood at RMB2.1bn for the same period, down 56.7% from the previous year and a stark reminder that yards are building ships these days for next to no margin. “New orders increased compared with last year. But it is still too early to conclude that the shipping industry is well on track for sustained recovery,” said Nie Lijuan, deputy secretary-general of CANSI. Shipbuilding output saw a year-on-year decline of 11.9% to reach 13.78m dwt in the period, CANSI said. Always a sign that markets are set to change is the arrival of Greeks en masse to shipyards

and 2013 has seen an incredible amount of orders placed by tycoons from the world’s largest shipowning nation (see page 23 for more). Similarly, another canny set of ship investors traditionally hails from Taiwan and they have been unscrewing the lids of their fountain pens to ink contracts in vast numbers too, lending credence to the feeling that prices must be approaching the ocean floor. In the second week of May, for instance, Sincere Navigation contracted for a pair of capesizes with Shanghai Waigaoqiao Shipbuilding. The price per unit was $46.8m, a record low for Waigaoqiao. The ordering binge has irked some. “Banks, shipowners and cargo owners should take an extremely cautious attitude towards shipping investment under this catastrophically oversupplied market,” said Zhang Shouguo, executive vice president of the China Shipowners’ Association. Zhang estimated that global ship supply exceeded demand by 30%. If that is the case, then owners may well be prolonging the downturn and in turn shipyard bosses will need to get even more creative with their pricing. Sinoship   Summer 2013

OFFSHORE ■ ■ ■

Towards high-end dominance Already churning out basic anchor handlers, Chinese yards are now keen to rise up the technology ladder in this increasingly hot offshore segment, writes Katherine Si According to statistics compiled by SinoShip China already has a commanding market share in the sphere of anchor-handling tug supply (AHTS) vessel construction, accounting for in excess of 40% of the orders made last year. The goal now is to move up the technology chain, becoming less reliant on Europe for knowhow and developing home grown designs. Beijing issued its National Marine Economy Development plans earlier this year to boost local offshore oil and gas industry development, and achieve 60m tons of offshore oil and gas output by 2015. A sizeable domestic AHTS fleet will be necessary to achieve these goals. China Oilfield Services Limited (COSL), the leading oilfield service provider in China, operates the largest and most diverse offshore support fleet in the nation. It is planning to add a further 50 offshore support vessels (OSVs) in the coming years including AHTSs and platform supply vessels (PSVs) to support domestic near shore and deepwater works, and further optimise the fleet structure. Cai Dian, deputy general manager of the ship division of COSL, reckons that the outlook for offshore oil exploration in China is rosy, and COSL will play an increasingly central role in the field. This will see plenty of orders for domestic yards, and Cai says that foreign owners too will increasingly select China to build their ships. “This is not simply down to price advantages,” argues Li Zhen, a ship designer from Sinopacific Shipbuilding. China’s economy and industrial

RED HOT Chinese yards took more than 40% of AHTS orders last year development is far more robust than in Europe, he says. “International owners are finding it easier to get financial support from Chinese banks and yards than in their own countries at present,” Li says. His employer, Sinopacific, is one of the leading private yards in China, famous for its own designs. It has also performed

and are Sinopacific’s own SPA-150 design, classed by Bureau Veritas. At the end of April, Sinopacific delivered a highly advanced small sized AHTS, the design dubbed SPA-80. “We are proud of our own designed products. All our orders have came from international owners, which means

International owners are finding it easier to get financial support from Chinese banks and yards than in their own countries well in the AHTS arena. The company received an order for four AHTSs this year from Femco Group. The vessels will be built at Sinopacific’s Dayang yard. The ships have 12,240 brake horsepower (bhp), 150 tons of bollard pull

our products have been widely welcomed and accepted by the whole industry,” Li says. “Until now, China is the top one in the low and middle end AHTS market, while the European yards are still the top one at building the high-end products,” Li adds.

Meanwhile, Guangdong Yuexin Ocean Engineering, which focuses on series of OSVs from 4,000 to 16,000 bhp, has recently delivered the third E 65T vessel in a series to Martens Marine. The E 65T vessels are powered by twin CAT 3516C engines at 5,150 bhp. These engines are in compliance with the US Environmental Protection Agency’s marine tier 2 commercial regulations. The ships have also been optimised to carry a large number of crew in one sitting. The bridge area features a larger working space from conventional 5,150 bhp AHTSs to facilitate project work. Wuchang Shipbuidling Industry is also a well-known AHTS builder especially for high-powered vessels, while Fujian Mawei Shipbuidling has an extremely healthy AHTS orderbook as well. Sinoship   Summer 2013

Finance ■ ■ ■

Prolonging the pain Owners’ ordering in vast numbers is not a smart move. Alfred Romann reports from Marine Money’s Hong Kong gathering

PILING ON THE DWT Greeks came bearing gifts to Chinese shipyards in extraordinary numbers this May It’s like it’s 2007 all over again, with stock markets scaling the heights across the world, and shipowners ordering vessels in staggering volumes. Orders this year are likely to prevent the shipping industry from rebounding until 2014 or even 2015. This is bad news for anyone looking for financing for almost any aspect of the business, from new ship purchases to restructuring, noted shipowners, charterers, financiers and other industry stakeholders gathered for Marine Money’s Ship Finance Forum in Hong Kong in March. “What we are seeing now is the problems we face are due to fleet development being where it is — the orderbook that we had during the boom years,” said Ravindranath Raghunath, head of chartering at Noble Group. The bad news has been piling up since the bottom fell off record chartering fees five years ago but the prospects for a fast turnaround are limited. “What has happened in the

past two months, we have seen record ordering. I don’t recollect in any 70-day period seeing as many capesizes being ordered in the recent past. Certainly not in the past four or five years,” said Raghunath. “Is 2013 the year to invest? You need a reasonable balance sheet and the ability to ride this market for a couple of years.” It’s worth noting too that he was speaking two months ahead of the Greek prime minister’s trip to Beijing

said Martin Rowe, managing director of Clarkson Asia. This extra capacity will make it more difficult for the industry as a whole to return to profitability. So banks are slowing down their lending or stopping altogether. “For the time being we are seeing a liquidity squeeze,” said Aaron Sen, head of ship finance in Hamburg at NordLB bank. “It is not only bad for the shipowners. It is also bad for the banks

Is 2013 the year to invest? You need a reasonable balance sheet and the ability to ride this market for a couple of years which saw a bundle of ships ordered by Greek tycoons at Chinese yards in May. The orderbook for newbuilds today, at less than 20% of the existing fleet, is nowhere near the 51% recorded in 2009, but will still add ships to the global fleets through 2014 and 2015,

because we cannot share our risk, we cannot share our exposure as we have done in the past.” According to Dealogic, the volume of marine finance in Q3 2012 dropped to about $10bn from a high of $40bn in Q3 2007 and from $15bn in Q3 2011. The good news is that banks

are still lending, albeit judiciously. The likes of DNB, Nordea, Mizuho, DVB, BNP Paribas, Bank of America Merrill Lynch and ABN AMRO are all still lending to varying degrees. Chinese banks are also lending more to the shipping industry, but the actual numbers are less than they generally get credit, said Davide Barzilai, a partner at law firm Norton Rose. Chinese banks were involved in financing deals worth $8.6bn between 2009 and 2012, but many of those deals have been in partnership with other banks. The Export-Import Bank of China alone is anticipating a $2bn increase in loans to the shipping industry this year, while ICBC Financial Leasing is seeking to double the value of its ship asset portfolio in 2013. “The question is: Will the banks be able to last and hold out until the revival in world economy and prices in the shipping sector?” asked Sen. They might, argued Arnold Wu, head of the Asia shipping at BNP Paribas. He maintained banks are better prepared now to weather these difficult times than they were a couple of decades ago and are more willing to work with companies to sort out financial challenges. Nevertheless, the number of plain vanilla financing deals is decreasing at a time when more creative structures are emerging. Banks like HSBC, Lloyd’s and Royal Bank of Scotland are actually trying to get out of their shipping loans and alternative investors like Apollo, Blackstone and Centerbridge are buying those loans at bargain prices. The silver lining is that the market is likely at the bottom now and, for those with a healthy balance sheet, there are good opportunities to invest. However, for the time being, financing is likely to remain tight, said Barzilai. “It’s a pretty nasty story when you’re out there looking for debt,” the lawyer warned. Sinoship   Summer 2013

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Commodities ■ ■ ■

Bubbling to the top In a SinoShip special, V. Subramanian, vice president, Asia at The Rice Trader, looks at China’s boiling rice imports China, the world’s largest rice producer and consumer, is on course to also be the largest rice importer this year, according to a new report by the United States Department of Agriculture. China will take 3m metric tons (mt) of rice imports this year, up from 2.34m in 2012. It is a remarkable jump given that the country’s rice imports hovered around 450,000 tons per year over the five-year period that ended in 2011. Since 2012, “consumption demand for rice in China has exceeded the supply”, the report said. The US report chimes with what we have been saying for some months. China’s capacity to buy rice this year — a potential that has captivated the rice market’s interest due to the reality of Chinese imports in 2012 and the possibilities ahead in 2013. Many have always believed that rice sales to China are higher than reported. Border trades are never clear, but we agree that they do exist. China’s buying can occasionally seem like the invisible hand, as it leaves an impact on local prices in countries such as Vietnam, Myanmar, and even Pakistan. Last year, China emerged as an important buyer, the world’s second-largest rice importer after Nigeria. Minimum support prices (MSP) have increased. The MSP for rice in China rose, and it is currently at RMB2.64 per kg, up from RMB2.50 per kg or approximately $424 per mt. This is the sixth consecutive annual increase made on the MSP — and this supports the view that

food security is at the top of China’s agenda. These prices are not too far from Thailand’s support price, but there is one difference: China consumes all the rice it produces (in 2013, it is expected to produce 143m mt of milled rice and consume 144m mt), while Thailand essentially grows twice its consumption (and this is a fraction compared to China, which is the world’s largest rice producer and consumer). Hence, Thailand relies on exports, while China is perennially concerned about food security. More competitive Vietnamese prices have caused Chinese buyers to shift towards Vietnam away from Pakistan. The sentiment is positive, but the price-sensitive nature of Chinese buyers can also mean that there are many issues that make sales to China complex — as many exporters have told us. There are quality problems, and, when prices drop significantly (compared to contracted prices – typically at higher prices) many renego-

will continue to have its own life so long as the total cost of obtaining allocations, importing, and repackaging or reprocessing the rice is lower than the local Chinese prices. For the moment, Vietnam and Pakistan offer China better deals, even though exporters are cautious about dealing with Chinese buyers. Some observations on exports to China reveal that there are more private buyers from China this year compared to 2012, when more contracts were done off the China National Cereals, Oil,

Food security is at the top of China’s agenda tiations happen, which, thus, make the business somewhat more challenging. We believe that what China does in grains can also have an impact on rice. But, increasingly, we feel that rice imports

and Foodstuffs Corporation (COFCO) allotments that were either purchased or utilised directly by COFCO. The rising yuan is also another factor that creates an environment conducive for more

rice imports. With local paddy prices rising higher in 2013, the strong yuan could be a major reason why imports become all the more attractive. This is an important feature for all commodities that China imports, and it will hit home when China looks at softer prices for wheat, corn, and soybeans (compared to 2012) in 2013, with the added benefit of a strong local currency. Because of the reasons mentioned, we feel that China will exceed the import level seen in 2012. One key determining factor is price stability. We have seen Chinese buying come to a halt when there are dramatic price increases (as seen in recent years when Indonesian, Bangladeshi, and even Philippine imports sent prices higher). The bottom line is that, imports must make sense visà-vis the local price in China, as well as gain consumer acceptance, be it as single-origin offerings or as blends that are aimed at the Chinese consumer. Sinoship   Summer 2013

■ ■ ■ LOGISTICS

1.32

Amount in trillions of RMB China’s netizens spent online last year

Dot.room

The growth in e-commerce is boosting the warehousing sector, writes Jason Jiang As with the shipping and air cargo markets, China’s warehousing industry has been struggling, but the nation’s high spending netizens offer solace. According to a survey by the China Association of Warehouses and Storage (CAWS) with 67 large scale warehousing companies in China, total annual revenues of the companies reached RMB31.8bn in 2012, a growth of 10.5% year-on-year, but total cargo throughput dropped 14% to 71.3m tons, and total net profit decreased by 35.5% year-on-year. However, salvation comes thanks to the fast development of China’s e-commerce market where online sales cracked RMB1.32trn last year, up 71.3% year-on-year. Leading companies including Taobao, Alibaba and Jingdong have been experiencing explosive growth which has also boosted the e-commerce warehousing market. “Affected by the slowdown of domestic traditional consumption, retailers and relevant enterprises are more cautious about storage expansion,” comments Si Tuyi, director of the industrial department at property 16

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management company Jones Lang LaSalle China. “Generally speaking,” he continues, “there have been much fewer inquiries for non-bonded warehousing properties and the market demand has also been decreased, however, demand from e-commerce companies shows no sign of weakening.” Although very few companies are as powerful as Taobao’s Tmall renting a 30,000 sq m warehouse in Shanghai, there are still many medium-small sized e-commerce companies looking for warehouse space, says Si. According to a report from Jones Lang LaSalle China, Shanghai will add 320,000 sq m of new non-bonded warehouse space in 2013. Warehousing space of leading logistics companies were almost fully leased out in Shanghai in the first quarter of 2013. As available warehousing space in Shanghai becomes rarer and more expensive, some companies are considering moving their storage options to neighboring cities like Kunshan, Jiaxing and Taicang which have relatively more warehousing spaces and are also geographically still

convenient in the Yangtze River Delta region. Some e-commerce companies have been shifting their warehouses to industrial properties no longer satisfied outsourcing their logistics to 3PLs. They’re also getting policy support from the government to do this, says an official from Sinotrans, the largest logistics provider in China. On April 12, YTO Xinlong, a subsidiary of YTO Express which provides traditional traders a whole package of e-commerce services including online marketing, supply chain services and after sales services, commenced operations of phase one of its Shanghai warehousing facility which includes three warehouses with a total area of 120,000 sq m, equivalent in size to around 17 football pitches. “It’s a tough market but also with plenty of opportunities. We have invested more than RMB50m into the project, and we will build a nationwide warehousing system in China this year,” says Sun Jian, general manager of YTO Xinlong. “Indeed there are a lot of opportunities in the e-commerce

warehousing market,” concurs Xu Liangyi, deputy director of CTU Logistics, an e-commerce logistics provider, “but it is not very easy for traditional logistics providers to join as it is very different in both the hardware and software which requires companies to make much more effort.” Goodman Group from Australia is making significant inroads into China. It has recently signed with the the local government in Chongqing to invest $75m to build a modern logistics park dedicated to highend e-commerce in the city’s Liangjiang New Area. China’s government issued a guide for the warehousing industry earlier this year urging companies to transform from single service providers into integrated logistics providers and tomake more efforts on e-commerce logistics. An official from CAWS says that there are still many challenges in the warehousing industry which are keeping logistics costs high. Warehousing facilities in China are in insufficient numbers, she says, which has stimulated rent levels. Average warehousing rent in Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou, Shenzhen and Haikou has increased by around 20% year-on-year. It is also very difficult to find a standardised warehouse, the official says. She points out that another problem for the industry are the unreasonable designs for logistics parks. More than 65% of the logistics parks are designed to be more like real estate or trading projects, and the core logistics function is often weakened. “In this sector, logistics parks built by professional overseas companies in China are doing much better work,” the CAWS official concludes.

CRUISE ■ ■ ■

On the up Shanghai has announced plans for a third cruise terminal. It still faces hurdles to hit its ambitious targets, reports Sam Chambers Shanghai’s cruise a mbitions show no sign of abating. Development in China’s financial metropolis is never short of breath-taking and when it comes to cruise the local authorities have made clear they are not planning to sit still. Barely had the concrete set on its first modern cruise terminal on the downturn North Bund four years ago than new plans were announced to build a second larger facility out in Baoshan to handle the biggest ships afloat. Both terminals are taking ever more calls. During the first four months of this year, cruise passenger visitors to Shanghai have increased 244.5%. In June the municipal government announced plans to build a third terminal, also to be located in Baoshan.

“Among global big cities, two cruise terminals are not necessarily enough, Baoshan is planning to build a third large-sized cruise terminal,” confirmed Chen Xiaoguang, deputy director of the Shanghai Maritime Safety Administration. As a big feather in Shanghai’s cap, one of the leading international cruiselines, Costa, is to offer the first-ever roundthe-world cruise from China in 2014 in cooperation with a local partner, Shanghai Airline Tours, tapping the growing Chinese demand for overseas tourism. Departing from Shanghai on 22 March, the 2,680-guest, 85,700ton Costa Atlantica will provide an 83-day journey calling at 23 destinations in 16 counties. “As a pioneer of the cruise industry in China, we are always

A third terminal might be a bit premature, they still do not have the passenger numbers to justify these huge investments

challenging ourselves to bring more innovative holiday options to this market. China’s first round-the-world cruise is a perfect example of this and is the lynchpin of our Asia strategy over the next couple of years. It heralds a new milestone in China’s cruise industry,” Pier Luigi Foschi, chairman and ceo of Carnival Corporation Asia, said. Further good news is coming to the city too with Royal Caribbean International’s Mariner of the Seas set to call Shanghai home this summer. At 138,000 gt the vessel is the largest to have called in Asia and will offer a choice of 4/5/7 night and longer North Asia sailings. Shanghai is also planning to take Taiwan as a regular destination and is actively expanding routes to Southeast Asia, according to a recent cruise roundtable conference in the city. Currently, nine voyages from Shanghai to Taiwan have been approved. The Baoshan cruise port is actively expanding middle and long-distance cruise homeport routes, with Japan and Korea, Singapore, Malaysia and Thailand to be covered, Wang Hong, district governor of Baoshan said. “The voyage might be around two weeks or a month, and will be easily accepted by local citizens,”

Wang added. Shanghai is looking to add cruise passengers to its innovative visa waiver scheme. In a first for China since January 1 overseas visitors from 45 countries have been able to fly into Shanghai for up to 72 hours without a visa. The aim is now to make this visa free programme available for visitors coming onboard cruiseships. Local authorities are now just waiting for Beijing to approve the new cruise measure. So far so good but not everyone is convinced. “A third terminal might be a bit premature,” comments one well placed industry observer. “They still do not have the passenger numbers to justify these huge investments. The real jewel for a cruise tourist is to use the downturn terminal, as it is in a spectacular setting and is easy to explore the city from there.” The 70,000 gt limitation of the downtown terminal however is a problem. The Baoshan terminal, meanwhile, is not well-located, set in industrial suburbs. Another cruise expert urges authorities to streamline cruise operations, saying there are simply too many bodies that cruise firms need to navigate through to get business done in the city. “There’s too much focus on terminal development and not enough on developing the market,” says the source, adding: “The interest is there but the follow through is not there yet.” Meanwhile, speculation has not been entirely quashed on plans for a fourth terminal in downtown Pudong.

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Amount in billions of dollars spent by Chinese travellers on international tourism in 2012, a 40% rise year-on-year making the PRC the top tourist spenders. Sinoship   Summer 2013

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PROFILE ■ ■ ■

Downturn lessons Katherine Si meets Li Xiaoming, the ceo of Grand China Logistics, one of the world’s most controversial shipping companies in recent years

i Xiaoming cuts a slightly chastened figure when SinoShip catches up with him, tie loosened, eyes a bit baggy. As well he might. He is the ceo of arguably the most controversial shipowner during this protracted downturn, Grand China Logistics, a company that has racked up more days in court than OJ Simpson. Nevertheless, Li is adamant that his company has learnt the error of its ways, and prudence is now allegedly a

The shipping industry will stay depressed for a long period watchword. Prior to autumn 2008 Grand China Logistics was one of the most exciting companies in the shipping industry, coming from nowhere to be a major owner, charterer and shipbuilder in no time, comparable to Kang Duk-soo’s STX Group in Korea in many ways. Like Kang, come the downturn Grand China’s initial look as an emperor of shipping was found to be bare of substance. Court cases rapidly piled up against the company, a subsidiary of the HNA Group, a vast Chinese

conglomerate that counts among its many holdings, Hainan Airlines, the nation’s largest private airline. Still, Li says the experience has changed the company’s modus operandi profoundly. The fleet for one thing is a shadow of its former self, down from 100 at its peak to 38 ships today. Moreover, the aim these days is to wean Grand China from its spot chartering past to a far greater focus on contracts of affreightment. Li says there are no plans at present to expand the fleet, or to launch new routes. The company is working on scrapping older ships. “We know that the second hand and newbuilding prices are both low at present, however, we will not order ships at the bottom of the market,” Li says. “During the shipping industry downturn, we have learnt a lot,” Li admits. “We cannot control the balance of demand of supply, and it is too easy to expand blindly. But now, the business pattern of Grand China has changed fundamentally.” It certainly has, with shipping slipping into the shade. “Grand China is an integrated logistics operator, and shipping doesn’t account for much of our whole business,” Li says. “Considering the shipping industry will stay depressed for a long period, we have

significantly shrunk our shipping business. The development direction of our company is to set up a modern integrated logistics business pattern based on e-commerce and information technology.” The grand shipping ambitions seem to have been put on hold. Lawyers lament.

NEED TO KNOW Grand China NEED TO KNOW Logistics As one of the three pillar industries of HNA Group, Grand China Logistics launched operations in 2007. The major businesses are express delivery, equipment manufacturing and shipping. By the end of 2012, the assets of the company stood at RMB65bn, with annual income of over RMB15bn and nearly 13,000 employees. Now with 38 ships the company moved 27.71m tons in bulk cargoes last year and 660,500 teu. Jinhai Heavy Industries, a top ten Chinese shipyard, is one of its subsidiaries.

Sinoship   Summer 2013

PROFILE ■ ■ ■

Focus on core businesses

Mats Berglund, the ceo of Hong Kong’s largest shipowner, Pacific Basin, tells Sam Chambers the line is now just concentrating on dry bulk and towage

he message from the Admiralty headquarters of Hong Kong’s Pacific Basin Shipping is loud and clear: focus. Since taking office last year Mats Berglund, the Swedish ceo of the city’s largest shipowner by fleet numbers, has worked quickly to pare back non-core businesses in a bid to return the famous name back into the black. This has seen Berglund offload its loss making roro operations, as well as nix nascent plans to get into project shipping by selling its interest in a breakbulk terminal in Nanjing. Consultancy and surveying firm PacMarine Services has also been hived off. “It’s best to be good at one or two things, rather than average at four or five things,” Berglund tells SinoShip.

It is a good time to buy more ships

In describing his company, Berglund keeps it simple. “We are,” he says, “a publicly listed dry cargo company with a strong towage division. It does not make sense for us to be too diversified.” The effects of this slimming down are being noticed by more discerning readers of financial reports. Pacific Basin reported a net loss of $158m for 2012 in its results, a far cry from the $32m profit made in 2011. However, the underlying fundamentals of the company would look in a more sound position today than a year ago. Results were impacted by a $199m writeoff for Pacific Basin’s ill-fated foray into roros. The very weak dry bulk market was aided by PB Towage’s $38m contribution to the balance sheet. “Pacific Basin has a very strong balance sheet,” Berglund stresses. The market will remain weak for a while, he says. “We kind of like that as we need to see lower

new orders and more scrapping to balance things out,” Berglund says. While the handysize segment, in which Pacific Basin excels, is looking better than others it is, he says, still influenced by the onslaught of all these new bigger ships. Last year was the highest delivery year ever for dry bulk. “It does not get better overnight,” Berglund says sagely. Prior to Pacific Basin, Berglund was with Stena for 20 years, a company he joined straight out of university. Still, with the dry bulk market in the doldrums the Pacific Basin boss sees opportunities. “It is a good time to buy more ships as we can add more volume in the long term,” he says. Pacific Basin operates 120 handysize ships and 40 handymaxes. Of the 160 total around 40 are owned. The aim is to increase the owned fleet from 25% of the total to 50%. “We prefer second hand ships as we can see an immediate upside,” Berglund notes. The model for these ships is simple and will not change. “Cargo is king,” Berglund says. “This company understands it and it is built on a COA model. All our ships are used by ourselves.” Looking at Pacific Basin’s global set up, its name is perhaps misleading given the slew of commercial offices it has set up recently on the Atlantic, including in Stanford and Durban. “Pacific Basin is fairly Atlantic these days,” quips Berglund. Up next, expansion-wise, is likely to be the Indian Ocean with the ceo noting: “We can grow further there.”

NEED TO KNOW NEED TO KNOW

Pacific Basin Shipping Hong Kong’s largest dry bulk operator operates 160 ships, of which one quarter are owned. Plan is up to ratio of owned tonnage to 50%. Originally founded in 1987, company has been bought out by various interests over the years. Listed in Hong Kong in 2004.

Sinoship   Summer 2013

■ ■ ■ Profile

Forging ties The Greek prime minister’s trip to China in May saw many newbuild orders signed. Ship finance expert George Xiradakis was on the plane and central to many of the contracts

limpse closely at many of the recent shots of Greek owners putting pen to paper for finance and ships in the People’s Republic (see page 13 for example) and one person regularly stands out, hovering just behind the signing parties, George Xiradakis, increasingly seen as the most capable conduit between the world’s largest shipowing nation and the number one shipbuilding country. XRTC, the company Xiradakis runs, advises shipping banks that want to create international and Greek shipping portfolios. For the past five years XRTC has been heavily focused on China, in particular the China Development Bank (CDB). “Our goal was to advise our partner bank, CDB, to conclude bilateral and not syndicated transactions,” Xiradakis explains. “We strongly believe that this is the only way for the Chinese banks to develop experienced shipping teams and avoid unfortunate developments arising from mismanagement of their shipping portfolio.” Xiradakis has been especially busy of late as he chaperoned a number of top owners around China in tow with Greek prime minister Antonis Samaras’s May trip to Beijing and Shanghai. The Greek premier’s trip was successful for many reasons, Xiradakis says. “Greece came back to its economic partner and in fact announced the end of the Euro exit fears verifying that Greece is now prepared to host Chinese investments in its territory.” Similarly, the presence of senior representatives from the Greek shipping community forged ever closer maritime ties between the two countries. The three loans that were signed on the trip showed

Greek shipowners have mastered for many years how to navigate the shipping cycles 22

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the trust of major Greek shipowners to the Chinese finance market and vice versa. Anangel’s and Diana’s syndicated transactions with China’s ExIm and DNB and the bilateral transaction of China Development Bank (CDB) with Paragon Shipping added a total of about $230m in the Sino-Greek Ship Financing Scheme increasing the loans signed since Wei Jiabao’s announcement four years ago to approximately $1.4bn. Moreover, the signing of mature term sheets by Golden Union with CDB as well as the cooperation between Dynagas and ExIm on cooperation in the LNG market shows the interest of Greeks in advanced vessels. George Economou’s discussions with Shanghai Waigaoqiao Shipbuilding over possible offshore orders was another positive development. While all contracts signed on the trip were important the most noteworthy one, says Xiradakis, was a memorandum of understanding signed between the Greek privatisation agency and CDB. This will see Chinese investments in Greece soar as well as allowing Greek shipowners to form joint ventures with Chinese investors. Developing Sino-Greek partnerships in shipping investments in the form of joint ventures is something XRTC sees as a new growth area. “We strongly believe that in the near future the Shanghai capital market will be ready to host such schemes and will provide a lot of opportunities to both Chinese and Greek investors and shipping operators,” the finance guru reckons. There was a lot of misleading talk about 142 ships being signed up during the prime minister’s trip, something that no doubt brought heart palpitations to other under pressure shipowners around the world. The number actually refers to the vessels that comprise the current Greek orderbook in China including the vessels that are under construction and the contracts that have been signed. “This number corresponds to 10% to 15% of the total Chinese current orderbook in terms of the number of vessels but certainly

more in terms of value,” Xiradakis says, adding: “The encouraging sign however on the Greek orderbook in China is not only the volume of orders but the commencement of discussions and the real focus of Greeks in ordering high tech vessels including LNG and offshore vessels. Within the next months I expect certain developments on these issues.” The spate of newbuild orders in recent months would suggest that Greek owners can see the market has bottomed out. Xiradakis agrees, saying there’s plenty more orders to come from the Mediterranean nation too. “Greek shipowners have mastered for many years how to navigate the shipping cycles,” Xiradakis relates, “thus according to our view they will keep ordering across all sectors and they will even turn towards the most sophisticated sectors.” Expect to see Xiradakis’s frame looming large in many more contract photos.

NEED TO KNOW NEED TO KNOW

XRTC XRTC is a financial consulting and advisory services firm established in 1999 acting as a representative of international banks with the intention to enter or continue operations in the Greek shipping market.

PROFILE ■ ■ ■

NEED TO KNOW U-Ming Marine NEED TO KNOW Transport Taiwan’s U-Ming Marine Transport Corporation (U-Ming), formerly named as Yue Ming Transportation Co, was established in 1984 to provide marine transportation of cement, dry commodities and industrial raw materials. It listed in Taipei in 1990. U-Ming owns and operates a total of 45 vessels with a total of 5.18m dwt including 11 bulk carriers under construction. The company has made a foray into VLCCs too.

Why buying ships now is unavoidable One of Taiwan’s richest men, Douglas Hsu, talks to Engen Tham about snatching opportunities to bag cheap ships in the downturn

ow in his 70s, Douglas Hsu chairs the Far Eastern Group, which controls more than 200 businesses involved in everything from cement to banking. Among his diverse holdings Hsu is chairman of U-Ming Marine Transport Corp, one of the island’s most prestigious bulker names, and definitely one of Hsu’s favoured subsidiaries. Forbes estimates Hsu’s wealth at $1.4bn. Much of that money has been made from good timing, and his moves with U-Ming in the past months are testament to that. Ordering ships in this cyclical industry is like trying to catch a ball just before it hits the ground. When the Taiwanese tend to order, that’s a good marker

traditionally that newbuild prices are approaching rock bottom. “Is the market at the bottom, this is a difficult question to answer,” Hsu muses. “We are taking this period to make replacements. The market is so low – we are just making a strategic move – but this doesn’t show that it’s at the lowest level,” he says cautiously. He reveals that U-Ming is selling all its ships that are aged 15 years or over, with an

eye on then acquiring more “efficient” bulkers. This has seen U-Ming snap up bargains in China and Japan in the past year. “This will increase our overall efficiency,” Hsu says. “Everyone is talking about whose costs are lower, which is why I’m engaging in this exercise,” he explains. “From another perspective, you could ask, ‘Margins are so low, why would you buy new vessels?’ But this is related to an entirely different question because if you want to remain economically viable, you need to accept that margins are low – so you can only think about how to reduce your own costs. To reduce costs, the rate is low, but whether the market is good, bad, etc is another issue.” Hsu’s comments often tend to raise eyebrows in shipping circles because he is not afraid to speak his mind. In remarks given ahead of a shipping event in April Hsu called for a radical overhaul of the shipping industry. “Overcapacity, rising fuel costs, the onslaught of technology and environmental awareness are among the forces that are driving the shipping industry to reinvent itself,” Hsu said, adding: “This tsunami of challenges demand an urgent need to transform the way the shipping business is done. Only by making radical changes can the industry survive and thrive in the new and increasingly volatile global economy.”

If you want to remain economically viable, you need to accept that margins are low, so you can only think about how to reduce your own costs Sinoship   Summer 2013

■ ■ ■ FEATURE

INSURANCE POLICY Scrapping yards might need a lifeboat for lean times looming ahead

Compressed margins Decent steel prices and a shipping downturn are necessary for ship recyclers to make money. The stars are rarely aligned for China’s breakers, writes Katherine Si

hip recycling is a counter-cyclical industry if ever there was one, praying on the misfortune of others, betting on indices to remain low. Nevertheless, even bad times for shipowners do not necessarily translate into boom times for scrappers in what is a highly cutthroat business. Spare a thought in particular for the Chinese whose greener method of drydocking ancient ships costs more and so naturally gets less business than rivals on the sub-continent. Moreover, the current shipping doldrums have coincided with a drop in Chinese steel prices and demand. Last year, more younger ships with bigger deadweight tonnages were scrapped, with bulk carriers to the fore. Around 89% of scrapped ships were handled by yards in the downstream areas of the Yangtze and Pearl rivers.

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In 2012, the number of ships scrapped in China rose 8.8%, however profitability declined with most recyclers in the red, according to statistics from the China National Ship Recycling Association. “With the continued depression of the global shipping industry, more owners and more shipyards are looking into the recycling industry, however, the shipping industry should recover in the next two or three years, which also means difficult times for ship scrapping yards are coming,” Xie Dehua, the association’s president, tells SinoShip. Beijing has recently enacted legislation to financially encourage local owners to get rid of older tonnage, a follow on measure

from one enacted a few years ago to modernize ships plying the Yangtze. A recent report by the Shanghai International Research Center showed that more than 70% of owners are keen to scrap parts of their fleet.

Foreigners enter the fray Part of the problem in China is that, just like shipbuilding, there are now too many ship recycling centres. Latterly this has seen a number of foreign firms from Asia and Europe set up shop in the People’s Republic. The French recycling company Veolia is entering the China ship scrapping business pushing ahead with a RMB1bn environmentally friendly project in Xinhui, Jiangmen in Guangdong province to create a giant facility capable of dealing with 800,000 ldt of ships per year. The giant yard will take three years to build. Liang Junjie, the project manger of Veolia Jiangmen, tells SinoShip: “This is the first and the only ship recycling facility that Veolia has invested in China. The market seems good to us.” Xinhui, where Veolia has chosen to set up shop, is a traditional ship recycling base in China with a 30-year history, its ship

The current shipping doldrums have coincided with a drop in Chinese steel prices and demand

Ship Recycling ■ ■ ■ scrap volume accounting for nearly 50% of the nation. Meanwhile, another foreign company, Irish-owned CEMS-Dalian (CEMS-D) is also planning to develop a yard in Zhuanghe near Dalian. “We have formed a strategic alliance with a private Chinese company to design, develop and operate a state of the art ship dismantling and recycling facility with the latest technology,” says John Cronin, founder and chairman of CEMS-D. “We aim to make this facility a global centre of excellence for ship dismantling and recycling and have received excellent support from the local and national Chinese governments.” Also in Dalian, Singaporean containerline Pacific International Lines (PIL) has teamed up with the city’s top shipbuilder Dalian Shipbuilding International Co (DSIC) and steel mill Angang Steel running a massive ship recycling centre. The arrival of many foreign firms into the sector is something Xie does not wholeheartedly welcome. “Looking at overall capacity, I personally think it is not good that more foreign companies are expanding their ship recycling

In 2012, the number of ships scrapped in China rose 8.8%, however profitability declined with most recyclers in the red businesses in China.” He quickly adds, “However, for technology, communication and cooperation, it is a good thing to us.” It is obvious, looking at the national fleet age profile, that China has more ships than other countries to be scrapped, but is ship recycling as profitable as the new ventures expect?

Overcapacity Overcapacity is already clear in the sector, exacerbated by a number of shipbuilding and repair yards also entering the breaking business to diversify revenues during the shipbuilding slump. CSSC Chengxi Shipyard (Xinrong), a jv ship repair arm of CSSC Chengxi and a Hong Kong company, has expanded its business to ship recycling. Japanese class society ClassNK has come onboard to provide advice and certification. Xinrong is looking at 100,000 ldt of business this year.

Singapore-listed Yangzijiang Shipbuilding has also diversified into ship recycling by buying an 80% stake in a Jiangsu breaker 18 months ago. The site is being developed so that it can scrap up to 15 VLCCs a year. Also of note is news that a ship recycling yard in north China, Tianjin-Tianma, has recently moved to the shores of the Yellow Sea, where there is more space and there are longer piers and bigger cranes. Within a few months, an industrial wasteland has been converted into a finished shipyard, more than doubling the company’s capacity. All this new capacity is coming to the market, however, as steel prices in China, the other vital factor in profits for breakers, remain depressed. The stars are rarely aligned for the nation’s recyclers who find themselves currently chasing volumes as profits remain elusive.

Offshore recycling a possible bonanza: Grieg Green It will take up to the next decade for 2009 Hong Kong convention on ship recycling to come into the market, says one of the leading protagonists of green vessel scrapping. Petter Heier (pictured), ceo of Grieg Green, tells SinoShip: “We are waiting for the Hong Kong convention to come into force, but it will take seven more years minimum. There is a long, long way to ratification.” The Hong Kong International Convention for the Safe and Environmentally Sound Recycling of Ships was adopted at a diplomatic conference in May 2009. The convention is aimed at ensuring that ships, when being recycled after reaching the end of their operational lives, do not pose any unnecessary risks to human health, safety and to the environment, something that will be good news to the likes of Grieg Green when it finally becomes the law. Grieg Green is a part of the Grieg Shipping Group, a fully integrated Norwegian shipping company with more than 125 years of experience in the maritime industry.

Grieg Green handpicks the world’s top recycling yards – by using its own ‘scorecard’ rating method. The firm acts as a manager for owners seeking to scrap ships in a more environmentally friendly way. The problem at the moment, despite the overarching need for shipowners to scrap to cut back on overcapacity in the global fleet, is all down to price, admits Heier. “Lots of owners have to recycle,” he admits, “but pricing remains a big issue.” Owners are selling vessels because they need cash, Heier says, noting how the age of ships being sent for dismantling is getting younger and younger as shipping’s recession enters its fifth year. Owners are scrapping ships that are just 15 years old, he points out. Heier’s business is not helped out by the fact there is still a big $50 per ldt price difference between India and China, the latter being where Grieg Green opts to recycle. “China has very thin margins for shipbreaking,” he admits. Thus far Grieg Green has had four clients and six vessels in its first 20 months of operations. The owners have been Sinokor,

‘China has very thin margins for shipbreaking’ Petter Heier Gearbulk, Hoegh and parent Grieg. A new source of business could come from the offshore sector, notably jack-ups and semi-submersibles. Around 65% of all jack-ups worldwide, for instance, are now over 25-years-old. Scrapping jack-ups in India is not possible as it is impossible to beach a jack-up, observes Heier. “Offshore companies tend to have a greater green aspect to their business,” he notes. The challenge is how to bring offshore units from where they have been operating to the scrap yards, something Grieg Green is willing to use heavylift vessels to manage.

Sinoship   Summer 2013

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Crewing ■ ■ ■

Cost advantage gets thinner We canvass the top names in shipmanagement in our annual poll on the state of Chinese crewing capabilities What are the strengths of Chinese crews? Compared with other major labour supply nations, Chinese crew still pose a “slight” cost advantage, points out Keith Parsons, who heads up V.Ships’ Asian operations. Moreover, Chinese crew are also receptive to longer tenures onboard. Chinese crews are generally systematic in their approach and have good technical skills, says Captain Siddhartha Gopalkrishna, general manager of global fleet personnel at Hong Kong manager Univan. When faced with a problem they have the ability to find a solution quickly and efficiently, Gopalkrishna reckons, adding: “They are cooperative, sincere and professional.” “Coming from Chinese culture, Chinese crews are loyal and determined to overcome all the obstacles, no matter if technical or people related,” argues Simon Doughty, group managing director of Hong Kong’s Wallem Group. Mentoring of juniors or younger shipmates is also strong in Chinese crew culture, resulting in a harmonious atmosphere onboard a full Chinese crew ship as they work closely together and care for each other. In a wider sense, China poses a significant size advantage, as the source manpower pool is enormous, observes V.Ships’

Parsons, and this can be developed as a sustainable marine manpower option given the right training and development.

What are the weaknesses of Chinese crews? Rajaish Bajpaee, ceo of Bernhard Schulte Shipmanagement, says they can be overly sensitive especially when sailing in a mixed nationality environment and therefore may appear non-assertive in some occasions. Also, Bajpaee says there is still room to

There are not enough qualified seafarers being produced to fill the gap improve English proficiency and strengthen shipboard safety and hygiene aspects. Levels of English is something brought up by every one of our respondents, but V.Ships’ Parsons is prescient when pointing out: “One must bear in mind that a Chinese national today, with good English skills and education, has a host of opportunities open to him or her; thereby pushing a seagoing career lower down the choice of careers for top talent.”

Other issues include a lack of thinking laterally. “Some flexibility would help Chinese crew,” says Univan’s Gopalkrishna, “as they sometimes adhere rigidly to procedures when sometimes alternative solutions may be preferable.” Chinese crews have also traditionally been tagged with a stereotype that their safety record has yet to establish itself. Kishore Rajvanshy, managing director of Fleet Management, criticises Chinese seafarers for their “less than adequate level of safety awareness”. Commercial awareness is another issue third party managers need to be aware of when taking on Chinese employees, reckons Wallem’s Doughty. Chinese crews are used to working for major Chinese state-owned companies such as Cosco and China Shipping. In such cases, the shipowner, the charterer, the ship operator, the port agent and the supplier are all part of the same organisation, unlike international shipping norms.

What more could Beijing do to make it easier to deploy Chinese crews on international ships? In unison, our shipmanagers all called for international manning agents to be allowed Sinoship   Summer 2013

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Crewing ■ ■ ■

Rising demand has meant that the wages of Chinese crew have risen steadily in the past few years to operate freely in the People’s Republic. “Break the stranglehold of the local licenced and unlicenced manning agencies and allow reputable foreign operators to set up their own manning and training operations without excessive permits and bureaucratic requirements,” was the quick-to-thepoint advice from Bernhard Schulte’s Bajpaee. Quite so, concurs Fleet’s Rajvanshy. “I believe that Beijing would do well,” he says, “to aid the setting up of independent manning offices to be set up by owners and managers for selection and recruitment of crew to international standards.” At present this is not allowed. Bajpaee has other thoughts on the question posed too. “Make clear what are the requirements from employers and seafarers with regard to taxation and social security payments,” he says and chips in one other idea: “Remove the constraints for seafarers to move from one agency to another. They should be free to go wherever they perceive value and quality.” The Wallem boss, Doughty, has a host of recommendations including enhancing the quality of STCW training, bringing this into line with training standards in other major seafarer supplying nations. “Training beyond passing an examination or STCW mandatory courses is relatively new in China,” explains Doughty, “and this is an area where all stakeholders in the Chinese maritime industry need to understand the importance of ongoing professional upgrading training as an investment, both in the seafarers and for the industry, and not a licence to print money or certificates.” Better quality instructors should be appointed at state operated training schools.

Doughty also says there should be more exchange programs with overseas training schools. V.Ships’ Parsons reckons Beijing should mull some handouts to better the quality of the nation’s seafarers. “The government could encourage international players with incentives to set up training and development establishments in China,” he suggests.

Are you finding that as China becomes ever more important in world maritime affairs and global trade there is a greater demand from international owners for Chinese crews? Fleet’s Rajvanshy agrees with the statement above. “The huge seabound trade to and from China and the need to be frugal in these recessionary times has increased the demand for Chinese crew,” he says. “Essentially, the frequent port calls in China make Chinese crew change expenses relatively low and hence attractive to owners.” Quite so, agrees Wallem’s Doughty. “Chinese crews are good value for money, therefore in today’s challenging shipping markets, Chinese crews are attractive for owners who want to operate cost effectively,” he notes.

However, Doughty cautions that Chinese seafarers need to see a long-term future in shipping. As the number of Chinese crews onboard increases, shipmanagers and operators are looking for more Chinese marine and technical superintendents. Port operators will also continue to demand maritime experience for their harbour pilots, surveyors and consultants, therefore Chinese seafarers need to look beyond a simple seagoing career. With all this new demand for Chinese crew Gopalkrishna from Univan questions whether enough seafarers are coming through the ranks. “The new tonnage in China has widened the gap between supply and demand, there are not enough qualified seafarers being produced to fill in this gap,” he reckons. He also alludes to the pressing problem of shipping not being seen as an attractive career option in the booming Chinese nation. Moreover, Gopalkrishna warns that Chinese owners have hiked up seafarer wages lately which is making international owners seek alternative emerging markerts. That’s true, agrees Rajvanshy. “Rising demand has meant that wages of Chinese crew have risen steadily in the past few years narrowing the cost advantage against other nationalities,” he warns.

Sinoship   Summer 2013

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Fuels & Lubes ■ ■ ■

Gas-powered ships – China plays catch up Chief correspondent Katherine Si looks at bunker developments

hina is playing a game of catch up in the shift to use liquefied natural gas (LNG) as a fuel onboard ships. Beijing is expected to issue industrial standards for LNG-powered vessels in the second half of this year to promote the ‘Oil to LNG’ conversion programme and the LNG fuelling market. Currently there are nearly 200 vessels that have been converted to LNG power in China, however, the market hasn’t been fully commercialised due to a lack of relevant industrial standards. China Classification Society (CCS) and the Maritime Administration of China have issued some guidance documents in the past two years but none of them are on an operating level. “The LNG market in China is still facing development constraints including lack of technology standards and infrastructure, it will still take quite a while for the market to gain stable growth,” says Liu Yijun, an LNG specialist at the China University of Petroleum. Wärtsilä and Lloyd’s Register held a joint industry seminar in Shanghai in April to provide the Chinese shipping industry with key insights into LNG as a ship fuel.

He highlighted that safety, not just availability, of bunkering solutions is a key factor in the use of LNG as a fuel. He cited the biggest difference between LNG carriers and LNG-fuelled vessels as being the definition of the ‘Gas Dangerous Area’. Whilst in carriers this is limited to a clearly defined space, it could be spread out over several areas within the vessel types that use LNG as a fuel.

Development constraints include a lack of technology standards and infrastructure Wärtsilä’s gas expert Barry Yang and Lloyd’s Register’s Joseph Morelos presented different aspects of using LNG as a fuel. “Class has established general frameworks and solutions … but the final application definitely needs a case-by-case analysis by the engineering experts,” said Morelos, currently a senior surveyor and global expert in gas as a fuel with Lloyd’s Register.

Meanwhile, Yang, Wärtsilä’s segment sales director, felt there’s a requirement for differing storage tank locations depending on the vessel.

Yangtze lead It is along China’s longest river that most developments are taking place to get LNG accepted as a ship fuel. China National

Offshore Oil Corporation (CNOOC), Sinotrans&CSC Group and China Sanjiang Space Group are jointly developing an LNG industrial chain along the Yangtze River. The three companies are looking to build new ships and retrofit a large swathe of the Sinotrans&CSC fleet so that LNG plays a far larger part in the company’s fuel supply. “Sinotrans&CSC currently has more than 2,000 vessels which accounts for about 40% of the shipping capacity on the Yangtze,” an official from the shipowner said, adding: “Most of these vessels use diesel engines. The rising fuel prices have brought huge financial pressure to the company. Every year the group consumes about 600,000 tons of diesel fuel which costs around RMB3bn.” The company could save up to 20% of its bunker bills if the vessels switch to LNG engines. Another energy conglomerate PetroChina has already made plans on the same market ahead of CNOOC. PetroChina plans to invest RMB20bn to develop 20 LNG Sinoship   Summer 2013

■ ■ ■ FEATURE

LNG will only ever be for a small percentage of owners filling terminals along the river, currently five of them have already been approved by the government. Seperately, Chongqing Fujiang Energy Technology Company (Fujiang Energy), a subsidiary of Fortune Oil, is going to start the operation of the first LNG filling station on the Yangtze in August this year. The LNG filling station has a storage volume of 2,000 cu m and is capable of filling 20 vessels every day. Fujiang Energy converted its first LNG/ diesel duel fuel vessel in 2012 and with more conversions underway this year. Luo Cihua, general manager of Fujiang Energy, says that the company will initially convert LNG vessels for large shipping companies for free, and share the percentage of the energy costs saved by the shipping companies to ease the financial burden on them. Luo says that the company has another four to five LNG filling stations in the

planning near Wuhan, Nanjing and Shanghai.

Much gas, little action However, for all the talk of LNG as the saviour fuel for shipowners chastened by likely regulatory pressures, not everyone is convinced it is the answer. Douglas Raitt, global manager for bunker and engine performance consultancy, Fobas, is among those

questioning the likelihood of the cooled gas powering ships anytime. Fobas is part of British classification society Lloyd’s Register. “The bunker industry as we know it will continue for longer than people expect,” Raitt says, adding: “LNG will only ever be for a small percentage of owners.” The Fobas boss warns: “The debate on bunkers will become more polarised in the coming two to three years.”

Greasing world trade Lube challenges in China

CAROLINE HUOT ‘Competition is fierce’

aroline Huot, recently installed as global marine lubricants director at KPI Bridge Oil, a global bunker broker and trading company, has a long record of supplying lubricants in China. Her past employers include Total and Gulf Oil Marine. Given

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how much focus there is on the rapidly expanding Chinese maritime scene these days Huot admits that competition to sell lubes in the People’s Republic is “fierce”. The main challenge for suppliers is of a logistics nature due to the length of the coast and the number of ports to serve, Huot says. “A good supplier needs to be able to supply in main as well as secondary ports, ensure availability at all times as well as meet the challenge of handling duty paid port services as well as duty free ones.” The ability to supply in bulk at least for main engine grades is definitely a plus to offer cost efficient services. The understanding of the peculiarities of serving shipyards and newbuildings is also adding to the complexity of operations. “The emergence of Chinese suppliers committed to excellence in service and with a deep understanding of the local delivery conditions has been the major change in recent years. Any meaningful

network of marine lubricants supply cannot ignore such brilliant capabilities as well as increasingly sharp technological awareness,” Huot concludes.

NEED TO KNOW NEED TO KNOW

CHIMBUSCO China Marine Bunker Supply Company (Chimbusco) is a joint venture between PetroChina and Cosco and is the largest marine fuel supplier in the nation with a market share estimated to be around 60%. Sources at the firm’s Hong Kong office tell SinoShip it will shortly modernise its fleet of bunker barges.

HUBS: SHANGHAI ■ ■ ■

SOARING HIGH The Oriental Pearl Tower is an emblem of the city’s aspirations

Behind the modern façade Doing business in China’s financial metropolis is not as easy it could be, writes Engen Tham Punctuating Shanghai’s skyline, the Oriental Pearl Tower is an emblem of the city’s aspirations. Sleek, modern and with no hint of Chinese design, the tourist attraction reflects the type of business centre Shanghai would like to become. Yet, a stone’s throw away, pedestrians meander among Chinese vendors selling traditional medicines as the scent of stinky tofu wafts by. A shipping player engaged in business in Shanghai will find a similarly heady mix of old and new. Since the State Council’s 1995 approval of a plan to set up the Shanghai International Shipping Center, the city has taken myriad measures to improve its maritime infrastructure. From the introduction last November of the Shanghai dry bulk and oil tanker indices, to the construction of the Luchao and Zhaojiagou ports, the municipality’s actions so far appear to have created a slick business hub. But the shiny exterior belies entrenched business methods that may surprise those that see the city as a modern metropolis. Shanghai has the highest concentration of foreign companies and the largest amount of foreign direct investment, but the importance of personal connections or guanxi is as important as in other less developed

Chinese cities. “You may meet people at conferences and develop a relationship, but when it comes to actually getting projects, you will find that the depth of this sort of connection is really not enough. To make a deal, you need to approach through a more intimate relationship, for example through school friends, or university friends,” says Ben Zhang, managing director of Accord Marine. “If you can get into the ‘inner circle’ then it’ll be easier to do business.” Similarly, government bureaucracy is as rooted in

exemption from incorporation fees, subsidies for certain business activities), the level of corporate tax is uncompetitive when compared to other Asian hubs. A firm incorporated in Shanghai may have to pay up to 25% of its chargeable income in corporate tax, in contrast to

The shiny exterior belies entrenched business methods that may surprise Shanghai as in second or thirdtier cities. “We need to work with a lot of different government departments – and sometimes, some agencies can be bureaucratic, which can be difficult. Of course, this is when compared to international standards, in for example places like Singapore or Hong Kong. They still need to improve,” says Bi Yuping, managing director of Wilhelmsen Ships Service in Shanghai. Also, despite the financial incentives the Shanghai government offers to certain shipping firms setting up in designated areas in Pudong (such as

Singapore, where the rate is 17%. The higher rate of taxation, as compared to other regional centers, also hinders the growth of services that support the shipping industry. Foreign shipping law firms in Shanghai often find it difficult to attract local Chinese partners because the rate of tax on domestic partnerships is significantly lower than on non-local ones. As a result, foreign firms that have expertise on international shipping law find it difficult to expand, because they are unable to hire local partners, fluent in Chinese and business practice, that

would be better equipped to be the resident rainmaker. Another concern for Shanghai-based shipping companies is talent. “There are not enough people here that understand shipping. It’s much easier to find capable people in a place like Singapore,” said a Shanghai employee of a Hong Kong incorporated dry bulk shipping company, who wishes to remain anonymous. Because of the city’s success at attracting new companies, competition for existing talent is fierce, so firms find it difficult to retain people. In PriceWaterhouseCooper’s 2012 assessment of 27 major finance cities, Shanghai was ranked among the top five for economic clout and as a city gateway, but last for ease of doing business. The city is taking huge strides towards the internalisation of its shipping industry, but it will need to change some of its ‘old ways’ and pour more into marine education before it can compete with other centres on the global stage. Sinoship   Summer 2013

■ ■ ■ HUBS: TAIPEI

Free trade roll of the dice Joshua Samuel Brown on the latest initiative to make the island more competitive on the logistics scene Taiwan’s latest big push to make its logistics scene more competitive is to promote a series of free trade zones across the island. Premier Jiang Yi-huah inspected the expansion works at Taipei Port in mid-May, which will become a free trade zone in July. “I can see how ambitious New Taipei City is in its attempt to expand parts of itself into a free economic demonstration zone,” Jiang said. “I think the city is ready.” Keelung, Kaohsiung, Taichung and Suao ports are all scheduled to become free trade zones soon too. Taiwan Taoyuan International Airport is also one of the trial sites for the project. Other municipalities can also apply to become FEZs if they meet certain qualifications. “In the past half century, Taiwan underwent several rounds of trade liberalization that helped drive the country’s economic growth,” said Kuan Chung-ming, minister of the Council for Economic Planning and Development, the agency in charge of mapping out and implementing the FEZ initiative. “The project will leverage Taiwan’s advantages in human resources, information and communication technologies, pivotal location in East Asia and special economic ties with mainland China to develop high value-added economic activity,” he added. “Through further regulatory easing on the flow of capital, goods, information and talent, we will create a top-notch business environment facilitating free trade in these special zones.” The facilities will focus on 34

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READY AND WAITING Top ports like Kaohsiung are set to be more competitive

four areas — high value-added agricultural processing, crossborder collaboration in strategic sectors, international medical care and smart logistics. State support, including tax incentives and streamlined procedures for immigration and land procurement, will be offered to qualified individuals and companies operating in the zones. Not everyone is convinced the move is a smart one for the economy and the local citizens. “Offering tax incentives and introducing more cheap foreign labour to the FEZs will not help create jobs for locals, facilitate Taiwan’s industrial transformation or increase the country’s wage levels,” said Kenneth Lin, professor of economics at National Taiwan University. “In five years the project will make Taiwan’s wages the lowest among major Asian economies.” The priority, Lin said, should be to maintain the private sector’s technological leadership.

Cross-Strait free trade agreement Meanwhile, Taiwan and China

are nearing the signing of a service trade agreement under the Cross-Straits Economic Cooperation Framework Agreement (ECFA. “The pact will be the first free trade agreement between Taiwan and mainland China in accordance with the ECFA and General Agreement on Trade in Services of the World Trade Organization,” Mainland Affairs Council minister Wang Yu-chi said. “The signing of the landmark pact sends a strong message to

the world that Taiwan is committed to pursuing further trade liberalisation. It also paves the way for Taiwan to play a bigger role in regional economic agreements such as the Trans-Pacific Partnership and Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership.” The agreement will see Taiwan and China open 55 and 65 sectors, respectively, to each other, spurring domestic investment in Taiwan by 2.97% or $1.5bn.

Kaohsiung expansion To improve the competitiveness of Kaohsiung port amid intense competition, the Taiwan International Ports Corporation has decided to expand the No.4 container terminal at the island’s premier shipping hub. The project is expected to start construction in 2015 and be completed in 2018. The total project cost is NT$14.3bn, including NT$3.8bn from the government and NT$10.5bn from local private investment. When the expansion is completed, the expected annual container handling volume will add a further 611,000 teu. TIPC is also developing Kaohsiung Intercontinental Container Terminal Project with an investment of NT$90bn including 19 deepwater berths, five of them capable of handling the new large 18,000 teu container vessels.

HUBS: HONG KONG ■ ■ ■

Decline and fall or natural evolution? Sam Chambers looks at macro trends in arguing that the crippling 40-day strike at this once world-beating port has been brewing for more than a decade Few cities have evolved so consistently as Hong Kong; the mercantile nature of its Cantonese citizens bending with the prevailing winds generation after generation. The dramatic 40-day strike at its port would suggest that another period of transition is on the cards. It’s arguable that the worker protest is but the denouement of a changing pattern in world trade that can be traced back to 1992 and the opening of Yantian International Container Port across the border in eastern Shenzhen. Since then South China’s shine as a manufacturing colossus has faded, and Hong Kong’s century-long position as the gateway to the Orient was eclipsed when Beijing signed up to the World Trade Organisation (WTO) 11 years ago. Back in 2002 as China stepped up to join the WTO Hong Kong’s days as the world’s preeminent – and most expensive - port were cresting. It was still number one in the global ranks, memorably John Meredith, group managing director of the city’s leading terminal operator, Hutchison Port Holdings (HPH), dismissed transhipment cargoes, the bedrock of rival Singapore’s cargo, as of little economic value, likening them to airport transit lounges. How times have changed. Hong Kong relinquished its container port crown forever to Singapore in 2005. Today, it sits in third place with Shenzhen and a host of other ports in the region snapping at its heels. Worse still, transhipment cargoes are now what props

DOWN TOOLS Dockworkers protest in front of the Cheung Kong Center up the figures in the Special Administrative Region. As mentioned above history might argue that the writing was on the quayside for Hong Kong’s port ambitions more than 20 years ago with the architects of the downfall being the city’s very own terminal operators, who presciently felt the changing tides across the border in Deng Xiaopeng’s economic experiment that is Shenzhen. HPH’s very first terminal outside of Hong Kong was opened in Yantian in 1992. The terminal build up in the following two decades has been phenomenal with other Hong Kong parties, such as Modern Terminals,

piling in too. Shenzhen was the petri dish of Chinese reform, its success since mutating up and down the Chinese coastline where quay cranes now abound. Meanwhile, Hong Kong dithered with its maritime plans, with both local government and Beijing not providing clear guidance for the development of the port. Container terminal nine took longer than expected, the tenth terminal has been the subject of lengthy ongoing debate, the bridge spanning the Pearl river delta to Macau and Zhuhai took years to get the green light and even the new bridge at the entrance of Kwai Tsing container terminals has been criticized for not

allowing enough air draft for the likely next generation of mega boxships. The strike by workers connected to HPH-controlled Hongkong International Terminals in April and May was brought about by tough working conditions, with some subcontractors reportedly having only received one pay rise in 15 years, for instance. However, this dereliction by the employers is more symptomatic of the fact that port operators’ attention is no longer focused on Hong Kong. Indeed, such is the speed that China moves at these days, the same disaffection might befall Shenzhen soon. Shenzhen’s throughput figures (see table) paint their own picture of decline. The port business is all about growth, ideally in double-digit figures, once that disappears, operators focus their attention on the next big manufacturing zone. Or at least they do until workers remind them of their duties back home as the striking Hong Kongers did so memorably this year. What then for the future of Hong Kong as a maritime hub? Fear not, the former British colony will continue to be an important centre, the port itself will remain a top 20 contender for the coming decade, beyond that is immaterial as this city will morph once again. The likes of London and Oslo ceased to be major ports a long time ago, but that has not stopped them remaining among the most vital shipping hubs on the planet.

Chinese box throughput, annual growth (%) Port 1990-1995 1995-2000 2000-2005 2005-2010 12th 5 Yr Plan (8th 5 Yr Plan) (9th 5 Yr Plan) (10th 5 Yr Plan) (11th 5 Yr Plan) 2011 2012 Coastal ports 33.6 27.8 27.3 13.9 13.1 8.4 Shanghai 27.3 29.7 26.4 10 9.1 2.3 Shenzhen 69.7 32.3 6.8 0.3 2.2 Qingdao 34.9 28.6 24.4 13.8 8.1 11.2 Tianjin 19.7 9.5 23 16 14 6.5 Dalian 23.3 22 21.3 14.6 22 26.5 Xiamen 47.1 28.5 25.2 11.7 10.9 11.4 Source: SISI

Sinoship   Summer 2013

■ ■ ■ BOOKS

NEXT GENERATION The PRC’s workforce will inevitably decline in absolute numbers by 18% over the next 20 years

Demographic destiny Paul French looks at the coming 20 years in Asia as dictated by population changes Auguste Comte was a nineteenth century Frenchman who effectively created the discipline of sociology. He also famously said, “Demographics is destiny”. East and Southeast Asia are now aging populations, the ‘youthquake’ of the late twentieth century that defined the economic ‘tiger’ years in the region is moving on – India is in the demographic ‘sweetspot’, Shanghai now the second oldest city in Asia after Tokyo. All of this has profound implications. And so a number of recently published books look in detail at how demographic shifts will create economic shifts in the region. Dr Clint Laurent, the founder and managing director of Global Demographics, has been doing demographics in Asia for longer 36

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and with more accuracy than anyone else. In his new book, Tomorrow’s World, he forecasts the effects of population change up to 2032. Things could get demographically tough for China – the PRC’s workforce will inevitably decline in absolute numbers by 18% over the next 20 years (by 6% in the next decade). For this reason, Laurent claims that Beijing’s aim of growing GDP at 8% per annum for the next decade is based on “heroic assumptions about productivity per worker”.

people reaching working age. However, the economy will only benefit if they can actually find a job. Laurent calculates that New Delhi needs to create 6m extra jobs a year for the next two decades to meet this goal. A young workforce, similar to that which allowed China to become a massive manufacturing economy, may not be replicable in India. Sweetspots exist but time drives demographics — 49% of India’s labour force in 2032 will enter the labour force sometime after 2012; i.e. now. As Laurent points out India

East Asia’s problem is old age By contrast India has a potential demographic dividend in terms of the large number of

must get education right or its economic and political future is at risk as a result of having a

large, poorly skilled workingage population struggling to find employment. East Asia’s problem is old age. An aging society – think Japan, Korea, China – will see its economy suffer from both a decline in the working population and a rise in fiscal deficits linked to increased government spending, according to Takatoshi Ito and Andrew Rose, the editors of a new collection of papers published as part of the National Bureau of Economic Research East Asia Seminar on Economics and entitled The Economic Consequences of Demographic Change in East Asia. Healthcare spending, pensions, social welfare, long term care – all will be additional costs to systems, such as China’s, not previously used to budgeting for them. Japan is famously getting older, but so is the changing nature of its employment practices meaning that the number of dependents per employed person remains one of the lowest in the world. It will have enough workers to support the aged population — and grow the economy — for the next 20 years. China will also have a low ratio, thanks to the one-child policy, but without the social safety welfare net the Japanese built in the boom years. By contrast China has boomed but little in the way of safety nets. Demographers naturally argue that demographics is crucial. Laurent argues that, “Trying to steer your organisation into the future without all the facts in hand is like going into battle with an unloaded gun.” But demographics can be beneficial or a curse – India may create the jobs and boom, or not and slump; China may spend more on social welfare and weather the demographic storm, or not and suffer. The point is to make the choices as early as possible, institute the changes, and prepare the economy. These two books help policymakers do just that.

OPINION ■ ■ ■

Reason to panic? Andrew Craig Bennett picks apart the upcoming Maritime Labour Convention Our industry is a very traditional one; people have been carrying goods by water ever since some caveman fell off a log. Amongst our traditions is our response to new regulations, such as the Maritime Labour Convention (MLC). What we do is this: A new convention is drawn up, by people who like committees, either in the IMO or, in this case, the ILO. A handful of enthusiastic journalists try to tell us all about it. We ignore them. Next, the date for the new convention to come into force comes into view. We start to wake up. We may read the odd article; we might go to a seminar. We conclude that the new convention is likely to be a problem, because it will interfere with our way of life, by, variously, stopping us putting cargo tank washings in the sea, insisting that all seamen are roughly equally competent, that shipowners should try to be sure that their ships are run in more or less the same way and, now, by insisting that we treat our crews decently. There ensues a short period of panic during which shipowners and managers cast around for someone to fix it for them. During this phase, some consultants and experts, and even some journalists, will become overexcited (Ed. Note: Surely not!), and will announce that the new convention will put the wrongs of the whole world right at a stroke. Other, wiser consultants

and experts will devise cunning plans for shipowners and managers to comply with the new convention whilst making the smallest possible changes in

the fourth, after those two and MARPOL. Since we are now in the panic phase, let’s take a very quick look at the MLC. It wants

their way of life at the smallest possible expense. At the end of this phase, the new convention comes into force, and we find out that life can continue after all. The next big thing in shipping regulation is almost upon us - the MLC, which is either the third big thing after STCW and ISM, or, if you are a tanker man,

us to pay our crews on time, it wants them to have proper medicals and copies of their contracts, to know whom they are working for, to have reasonable accommodation and food and to serve tours of duty of reasonable length. Some bits of it, like the grievance procedures, are a bit airy-fairy, and will work splendidly on rich world ferries

and less well on poor world loggers. The hours of work and rest will immediately form part of the game between ships’ crews and the shore, because, alas, they are not going to work as intended for many ships, such as containerships with three ports in three days. And therein lies the rub. The MLC has done something rather clever – it depends on port state inspections for enforcement, because the ILO has the common sense to know that, in some of the manning supply nations, the forces tasked with inspection of manning agents are, to put it mildly, of negotiable virtue. Well spotted, chaps. The fact that mariners and ladies of negotiable affection (thank you, Terry Pratchett) are ‘exported’ in bulk, from much the same places, just might not be a coincidence. So what we’ve really got is more paperwork, an even better opportunity for PSC in many places to enrich themselves, and that’s pretty much that. What we really need is less paperwork, either in the form of the return of the Captain’s writer*, or paperwork that writes itself, files itself and finds itself when wanted. * The Furness Withy passenger ship Queen of Bermuda, quadruple screw, turbo-electric, with two pressurised boiler rooms, and an engineering staff of 80, carried a staff chief engineer and a chief engineer’s writer. Not a lot of people know that. Sinoship   Summer 2013

■ ■ ■ OPINION

LNG magic and mischief China is embarking on untried and untested gas carrying methods, something that has Max Hong on edge

DAPENG SUN China’s first domestically built gas carrier Some people are waking up in a sweat these nights from having nightmares about the evolution of LNG shipping in China. These are the same visionary thinkers, gifted engineers and patriotic project managers who up until six months ago were able be at peace knowing that terminals and ships they designed and built for the methane gas molecules coming to China, chilled down to minus 163 degrees centigrade in the form of LNG, are traveling first class in terms of safety, reliability and efficiency, governed by the international rules and regulations that have helped create and maintain LNG’s most impressive global safety records achieved over the past 40 years. There are very few sectors in the international energy sector that can boast such a sterling track record. In the immortal words of Slim Pickens, “It ain’t braggin’ if you done it!” and the LNG industry in China certainly has done it. Up until now it has been a Cinderella textbook story of perfection as China evolved into 38

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being a full member of the elite global LNG club, in cooperation with existing experienced experts achieving safety, reliability and playing by all the rules for LNG receiving terminals, shipping and shipbuilding, well established and defined by the international gas community. Since the first imported LNG cargo arrived in May, 2006 at China’s first LNG terminal in Dapeng, Guangdong up through today when we now find five major LNG receiving terminals now in operation, all functioning per global standards and continuing the incident free safety record of the global LNG industry. The nation that at one point inspired doubt in its ability to have the discipline, technical competence and long-term vision has proved to be a real success as the newest member of the global LNG club.

So far, exemplary. Now however a spate of new LNG carriers are being ordered and built for internal domestic China trade, built by yards with no LNG shipbuilding experience and to be operated by owners with no LNG experience. What is the impact, what are the risks, will the sterling credentials of the global LNG sector be impacted; does it matter? The first of these ‘outsider’ LNG newbuilding projects was initiated by CNOOC who are experienced in buying LNG and building and operating terminals, but CNOOC now wants to take their LNG business one step further by developing a hub and spoke distribution system, taking LNG from their large international receiving terminals and transporting it on smaller 30,000 cu m LNG carriers destined for discharge at smaller local

These orders for small gas carriers represent a departure from the cooperative framework of the international LNG community

domestic Chinese terminals in second and third tier cities. The CNOOC ships will be built using Type C tanks (normally reserved for small gas carriers and never before built in a size larger than 15,000 cu m) to be built at Jiangnan Shipyard who has never built LNG carriers and which will be managed by Nanjing Petroleum, with has no previous LNG vessel experience. CNOOC will be transporting LNG, which they already own, essentially an in house LNG logistics system. The second and third contracts are even more of a departure from the LNG success playbook. These are orders placed at Cosco Dalian by Inteh, a Dalian oil trader, for a 28,000 cu m LNG carrier and the other - a 30,000 cu m design - is placed by a Zhejiang owner at Xinle Shipyard. Both of these small scale carriers share the same deficits, a so far untested 30,000 cu m design using Type C tanks, contracted with shipyards that have no gas shipbuilding experience and operated by managers with no LNG experience. These ships will be put onto long-term charter to China energy major CNPC. This is where the worries are now growing, that these orders represent a departure from the cooperative framework of the international LNG community and that due to lack of experience and participation of expert partners, safety might be compromised and the unblemished quality safety record of the LNG seaborne transportation business developed so scrupulously over the past 40 years could be destroyed in an instance. If there is an incident with this new China domestic LNG shipping model the explosive repercussions could be felt across the global LNG supply chain.

OPINION ■ ■ ■

Navigating Chinese business channels Li Deng Bai looks at how many international shipping companies have been hoodwinked doing business in the PRC Eleven years ago China was just joining the World Trade Organisation and had an economy that was roughly the size of Canada. Fastforward to 2013 and you have a de facto superpower closing in on the US for top spot. This begs a question. How well has international shipping done in keeping up with China’s frantic development? It’s a hard question to answer — some owners who bought ships in the early 2000s and played the boom right could say they made a great fist of getting China ‘right’although many of them were just beneficiaries of an up cycle caused in large part by the Chinese appetite for raw materials and didn’t necessarily have businesses directly involving China. Clearly less happy are the owners that entered into contracts of affreightment with Chinese cargo interests in the boom years. Especially for cape owners, these contracts often represented a key component of their cargo books. Some owners were even confident enough in these contracts to buy, build and charter ships that were profitable against these contracts at the height of the boom. Come the collapse of the last few years in freight, these owners have suddenly found that their contracts are less than solid. I have met two senior cape chartering managers in the last three months who have told me that they are still spending a lot of their time renegotiating contracts — even ones that have been

concluded in the post-2008 market. One of the problems I have observed with shipping majors is how they have approached the issue of who is taking them into China — and part of this is how fast the whole thing has moved. Many at the top of the shipping tree today cut their teeth on the emerging market of their youth, Japan. In the Japan of the great Keiretsu industrial conglomerates, moving around was and is often facilitated by employing or developing relationships with senior big hitters to handle business on behalf of foreign entities.

do just that. The flaw in this thinking was that there is a huge difference between Japanese management structures and Chinese ones. At the top of Japanese organizations you will have people who have worked their way up through the business for years, often having spent a long time in operational and commercial roles. In China there is an extra layer of top management that can roughly be called the ‘Party’ leadership of business. Here you will find people who spend their days steering their busi-

There is an extra layer of top management that can be called the ‘Party’ leadership of business All well and good until people started trying to tack China arms on to their businesses, and thought they could apply lessons learnt in Japan. The theory went something like this: find a senior Chinese guy, give him a big fat package and he will build your business for you. And so several companies began to

nesses in the most vague sense with a focus on what the Party is trying to achieve in the latest five-year-plan or strategic vision. Often because they were the most visible people to the outside, they were the ‘managers’ that foreign enterprises encountered and then tried to recruit to lead them into China.

What most businesses found is these new executives were very good at building five-star lifestyles for themselves at the company’s expense, but knew nothing about how to build sound commercial business. The more talented of these political leaders will also often encourage their new masters to do things that are far outside their actual business models, because it suits their sense of China’s ‘strategic development’. A good example of this is the Japanese shipping major that was persuaded to give a Chinese coal company a cheap bareboat charter on a coal carrier to develop their relationship. They were somewhat upset when the ship suddenly appeared owned by a private Chinese operator, in whom the coal company had an interest. Of course the Japanese company’s senior Chinese man was a former comrade in arms of the top management of the Chinese coal major. A quick survey of the international companies in China today however shows that that time has passed and owners have largely learnt. The management of international shipping companies in China has become more, not less, international than before, and the number of ex-Chinese big shots from the SOEs seems to be receding. As ever it seems that foreign enterprises playing the China game are pretty good at learning and adapting. Sinoship   Summer 2013

■ ■ ■ PHOTO FINISH

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Heavy Metal Ship assembly in Dalian 大连船舶装配

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关注锚处理拖船拆船专题 2013年夏季刊

om 日在 s.c 每更新 new 文 hip 中 inos s w. ww

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大新华物流汲取教训

太平洋航运CEO采访船员调查香港港口罢工余波中国2030年的海运贸易市场

ClassNK 伴随海事产业而成长不断进取，积极应对随着全球经济发展与结构转变，当今的海事产业正面临各种前所未有的挑战。日本海事协会（简称ClassNK）注册船舶总吨约占世界商船总吨的20%，是全球知名的船级社。我们充分理解海事产业的需求，并根据海事产业对安全航运的需要，积极开展全新的服务与技术研发。在ClassNK主页上，您可以了解到更多我们为保障各种船舶安全、防止海洋环境污染所作出的努力。www.classnk.or.jp

目录 ■ ■ ■

■ ■ ■ 定期报道 3 编者语 4 经济 7 班轮 9 船厂 11 离岸 13 金融 15 商品 16 物流 17 邮轮

■ ■ ■ 人物专访 18 李晓明 19 Mats Berglund 20 George Xiradakis 21 徐旭东

现在可能是船东订购新船的最佳时机 —任元林,扬子江船业集团

在过去这段时间内,我从没见过70内会有这么多艘海峡型船订单

— Ravindranath Raghunath, Noble Group

最好是把一两件事做得很出色，而不是在四五件事上都表现平平 — Mats Berglund, Pacific Basin

■ ■ ■ 专题 22 拆船 25 船员 27 燃料与润滑油

■ ■ ■ 枢纽 29 上海 30 台北 31 香港

大家都在讨论到底谁的成本更低

— 徐旭东,裕民航运

随着往来中国的海运贸易量越来越大,使得对中国船员的需求量与日俱增

■ ■ ■ 评论 32 书籍

— Kishore Rajvanshy, Fleet Management

■ ■ ■ 意见 33 Andrew Craig-Bennett 34 Max Hong 35 Li Dengbai

关于燃料的争论在未来两到三年内将会更加分化

— Douglas Raitt, Fobas Sinoship   2013年夏季刊

编者语 ■ ■ ■

www.sinoshipnews.com ASM刊物

中国2030年的 “海运贸易市场”

编辑主管 Sam Chambers sam@asiashippingmedia.com 首席通讯记者司湘

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“预言的确是个不错的行当，但其中风险重重。”作家马克●吐温曾这样说道。英国机构劳氏船级社、QinetiQ和斯特拉斯克莱德大学却敢于大胆尝试，它们在4月份共同发表了“2030年全球海运趋势”报告（Global Marine Trends 2030）。该研究报告显示，人口增长趋势将确保航运业兴旺发达的态势保持到2030年。该报告预计，海运贸易量将从每年90亿吨增至每年190亿吨至240亿吨之间。到2030年全球航运业将迎来全新的局面，即全球四分之一的商船队均将归中国所有。届时，中国的市场份额将从2010年的15%增至 19%到24%，实力与希腊及其他欧洲国家旗鼓相当。中国将一直在液化天然气（LNG）进口量方面该报告指出， “中国的制造业将面临从劳位居前两位。值得注意的是，澳大利亚将赶超动密集型转变为更高生产率发展模式的巨大卡塔尔成为全球最大的冷却燃料出口国。压力。这需要利用创新技术提升中国的竞争中国集装箱运输船在全球市场中所占的份力。” 额将从2010年的18.3%增长到2030年的20.5% 到2030年，全球中产阶级数量有望在2010 至27.2%。年的基础上增长40-50%，其中中国和印度中就造船业而言，中国具有无可比拟的优势，产阶级人数的涨幅占近三分之二。到2030年，其产量增长将超过两倍。中国中产阶级人数将升至全球第二位，仅次劳氏船级社在新闻稿中对这份144页的研究于美国。报告进行总结归纳时指出： “到2030年，中国届时，中国在城市GDP排名中也将表现不因素仍将起着举足轻重的作用。届时，中国的俗。上海在全球城市经济排名中将从第19位石油消耗量将是当前水平的三倍之多，煤炭消升至第3位。到2030年，北京、天津、深圳和广耗量将是全球总消耗量的60%，因此中国无疑州这四座中国城市也将首次进入全球城市经将成为全球海运贸易的主要市场。” 济排名前20之列。这份内容详实的报告的问题在于缺乏对所有这些人口方面的变化将会给资源需真正发挥作用的游戏规则改变因素的分析。求带来巨大变化。例如，中国的石油需求将增中美两国均有深埋地下的巨大天然气储量，至目前水平的三倍，超过美国成为全球最大如果使用这些储量，将会缓解对能源进口的石油消耗国。的需求。同样，鉴于这份报告对人口因素的与此同时，中国天然气消耗量将呈现最大预测非常到位，中国造船量的增速之快令人增幅；而有趣的是，到2030年，中东地区的天难以置信，看起来前景极其乐观，这与中国然气消耗量将超过石油消耗量。步入富裕国家行列的雄心壮志格格不入。在煤炭消耗量方面，中国和印度将位居前然而，正如EdgarFielder在其1977 年的两位。到2030年，中国煤炭消耗量将约占全著作《The Three Rs of Economic Forecasting 球总量的60%，这对那些已经对中国污浊不 - Irrational, Irrelevant and Irreverent》中所堪的空气质量忧心忡忡的人来说绝非什么好写的那样： “预言都是荒谬和武断的，事实消息。往往与其相反（He who lives by the crystal 中国的钢铁消耗量增速将放缓，不过在未 ball soon learns to eat ground glass）。”. 来17年将仍将是全球头号钢铁消耗大国。油轮船东们应当注意到，这三家英国机构估计海运贸易量增幅最大的航线是从阿拉伯湾、黑海还有拉丁美洲到中国和亚洲其他地区。中东运往中国的海运原油贸易量将增长 4.5倍—从2010年的1.26亿吨猛增至到2030 Sam Chambers 年的5.71亿吨。像在其他很多方面一样，这份以人口因素 Editor 为主导的报告表明，从现在到2030年，印度和 sam@asiashippingmedia.com Sinoship   2013年夏季刊

■ ■ ■ 经济

消费力北京方面正在想方设法刺激居民消费。中国老百姓依然节俭，不轻易消费，Paul French认为似乎大多数分析师都将下调他们对中国2013年全年GDP增长率的预期，下调后的增长率约为7.6-7.8%，而年初时绝大多数分析师的预测约为8%。当时，绝大多数分析师都预测今年上半年会实现更快的经济增长。值得高兴的是，许多人认为中国经济将在下半年从当前的经济萧条中复苏，而且尽管中国的整体经济增速正在放缓，但北京方面似乎很乐意看到这样的情况出现。没有迹象表明今年中国政府将出台任何旨在刺激GDP更快增长的重大新刺激计划。中国政府仍然坚持提升内需的政策，旨在重新实现经济平衡发展，转变以往过度依赖出口和对内投资的经济发展模式。不过，执行该政策的难度越来越大，因为事实证明，政府很难说服消费者，特别是新兴中产阶级在很多领域进行消费。国家统计局的数据显示，今年一季度零售销售令人堪忧，这主要是因为城镇居民工资收入名义性增长同比增长8.3%，远远低于去年同期13.8%的增幅。不过，今年一季度非熟练和熟练工人的工资增幅都比前一季度要大，而且劳动力市场也比上一季度更为趋紧。白领薪资（绝大多数中产阶级都位于该阶层）仅同比增长4-5%。中国政府缺乏上述经济刺激计划，而且也排除了推出此类经济刺激计划的可能性。在此情况下，中国政府可以靠几方面举措来刺激消费。各家银行 4

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银行正在加大信用卡发放力度

正在发放更多的信用卡，如下所示，目前一个人持有多张信用卡的情况在中国许多大城市中日益常见。不过，随着信用卡发卡量激增，确保及时还款格外重要，否则势必会造成金融系统中债务越积越多，而这会加剧地方政府普遍负债过重的不利情形，目前地方政府的负债情况已经让关注中国经济的经济学家们深感不安。不过，这些问题尚未在中国的经济系统中显现出来，通货膨胀率依然不高—中国3月份的消费者物价指数（CPI）同比增长2.1% ，今年第1季度则同比增长2.4% ，比去年第1季度3.8%的增幅略有下降。不过，中国目前的投资仍着眼于未来。今年一季度基础设施投入增幅强劲，同比增长 23%，远超大多数分析师预计的水平。不过，工业部门的表现令人失望。一季度中国的工业增加值（VAI）仅同比增长9.5%，低于去年同期11.6%的增幅。工业增加值增幅下降是在工业成本下降的情况下取得的— 今

年3月份和2月份工业原料和燃料成本指数同比降低 - 2 % 和 1.9%，而去年同期为+0.1%，由此看来，中国工业企业的输入型物价压力有所减轻。不过，尽管面向国内用途的住宅地产开发和施工建设放缓，今年1季度海外出口同比增长18.4%，比去年同期的7.6%有大幅增长；同时今年前三个月进口量同比增长8.4%，比去年同期6.8%的水平有所增长。问题在于，出口增长的动力主要来自于沿海省份 —比例大约为

80%—之前普遍希望，随着制造业逐步向内陆省份迁移，内部省份本应当能够在提升总体出口量方面发挥重要作用，切实减少沿海地区和内地财富分布失衡的情况。不过，也许这种情况会在未来发生改变。出口量取得增长的最大单一地区是四川省和重庆直辖市。尽管内陆地区要脱颖而出仍需时日，不过内陆地区已经开始起步，正在向实现更好的工业经济表现的方向努力。

2013年4月各城市信用卡持有情况

北京上海广州成都南京

是，一张信用卡

不止一张信用卡

不，没有

% 38 38 36 58 47

% 58 61 59 33 47

% 4 1 5 9 5

被调查对象：1,500名被界定为中产阶级、年龄超过20岁的互联网用户资料来源：QQSurvey/Mintel

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班轮 ■ ■ ■

人民币，已是该公司连续第二年亏损。据多家券商估计，该公司未来的运营能力具有相当大的不确定性。债权人已扣留了该公司的多艘船只。长航凤凰曾表示，将裁员并调整船队结构。

苏信吉（Nobu Su）的TMT形势更为动荡。苏信吉（照片）于3 月份卸任行政总裁职务，转而担任公司的执行主席。上个季度，这位台湾海运大亨有多条船被扣留，该公司的债权人大声疾呼，要求变卖该公司更多船只来抵债。

山东海运股份有限公司于5月初与青岛北海船舶重工有限责任公司签约，建造四艘250,000 载重吨的超大型矿石运输船。此前早些时候，山东海运股份有限公司已与澳大利亚矿业巨头必和必拓签订了为期10年的铁矿石海运合同。

中国外运长航集团的另一家子公司长航凤凰（CSC Phoenix）的上市股票已被上海股市正式列为“特别对待”类别，该公司2012年的净亏损为18.8亿

韩国现代重工集团（Hy u nda i Heavy Industries）已从中海集运（China Shipping Container Li ne s，C S CL）赢得一份为对方建造 5 艘运力均为1 8 , 4 0 0 标准箱的集装箱船的合同。C S C L为每艘船支付的费用约为1.4 亿美元。这些船只于 2 0 1 5 年初交付使用时，将是世界上最大的集装箱船。同时，C S C L也在处理其较小的船只，宣布淘汰报废 10 艘 1,0 0 0 标准箱的旧船，此举能够充分利用中国政府对老旧船只报废的最新补助。

Trucking consolidation Exclusive repair data SPRING 2013

南京油运股份有限公司（Nanjing Tanker）是中国外运长航集团在油运方面的左膀右臂，该公司从5月14日开始暂停其股票在上海证券交易所（Shanghai Stock Exchange， SSE）上市。此前该公司已从4月22日起暂停其股票交易。该公司在2012年亏损12.4 亿人民币，打算出售三艘MR油轮、两艘液化石油气运输船和四艘沥青运输船。

中船澄西船舶修造有限公司（Chengxi Shipyard）热烈欢迎业内信誉卓著的客户之一香港华光海运控股有限公司再下订单。华光海运与其于4月8日签订了4+4艘64,000载重吨散货船的建造合同，船舶由上海船舶研究设计院（SDA RI）负责设计。 “海豚 6 4 型”散货船是中国造船业最受追捧的生态船舶。

t om ily s a s.c Da ate pnew d hi up nos i w.s ww

Eye on jack-up rigs

大新华轮船有限公司（Gra nd China Shipping）是总部位于上海的大新华物流（Grand China Logistics）的子公司之一，在沙钢航运（Shagang Shipping）提出诉状后，被香港高等法院进行清算。继去年进行伦敦仲裁之后，沙钢航运被拖欠的款项仍有5,800万美元之多。大新华轮船还有其他多家债主，所欠款项类型包括定期租船租金和船舶经纪人佣金等等。

中国证监会（China Securities Regulatory Commission， CSRC）于5月初终止对重庆民生轮船股份有限公司的IPO审核。这家船运公司于2012年5 月在中国证监会的网站上发布了其计划在上海证券交易所首次公开募股的预招股说明书。近来中国的航运公司股票经历了艰难的考验。

www.sinoshipnews.com

Wah Kwong

Sabrina Chao takes the chair

接触正确客户群体的机会大中华区每一家主要船东和造船厂都在读这本杂志 Project shippers focus on Africa Henna sets sail: HNA Tourism head speaks Hosco’s Gao Yangming: China’s scrapping champion

第三期杂志的主题包括港口,法律和液化天然气广告咨询请联系 grant@asiashippingmedia.com

E-commerce: How Chinese online retail will lead the world

Sinoship   2013年夏季刊

船厂 ■ ■ ■

绝望的船厂老板的举止言谈就像是二手车推销员

快速应对，共同把握机遇船厂老板会想方设法让您相信价格已经降至最低点，现在是逢低买进的好时机。事实是否的确如此？ Sam Chambers对此展开了调查造船厂老板不停劝诱顾客，称现在造船价格已经到了难以置信的低点。他们的言谈举止与二手车推销员颇有几分神似。事实是否的确如此？船价是否真的已经触底？现在下结论还为时尚早。在新加坡证劵交易所上市的扬子江船业集团(Yangzijiang Shipbuilding)董事长任元林在 4月底称： “现在可能是船东订购新船的最佳时机。新船价格已经触底，自2012年第4季度以来，价格下跌了3-5%，并保持稳定。” 一个月后，熔盛重工首席执行官陈强对此说法表示赞同，他在该公司召开的年度股东大会闭幕后强调说，全球新船价格已经降至历史最低点，而且将不会继续下行。丹麦船舶融资集团（Danish Ship Finance，简称“DSF”）分析师对此持不同看法。他们在4 月底发布的一份内容详尽的报告中称到2013年底，新船价格将最多继续下行10%。DSF认为新船价格可能会下降到1,450万美元/修正总吨，仅略高于2002 年的水平。 D S F 预计，中小型造船

厂— 尤其是中国 — 会在今明两年交付所有订单，这意味着到 2 0 14 年底，全球造船厂的产能将回升到2 0 0 8 年时的水平。展望未来，DSF认为新船订单签约量不足以支持那些没有债务负担的造船厂开工，所以在未来几年中将有一些造船厂相继停业，因此全球造船产能将下降20%到30%。在评价目前造船企业遭遇的困境时，SinoShip撰稿人 Matthew Flynn直言不讳，称“产能严重过剩”。Flynn认为，正因为造船厂数量过多，实际上正在推动船舶创新和开启环保船只时代。

46.8 百万美元台湾新兴航运 (Sincere Navigation) 上个月买入的海峡型船舶的价格为每艘，标志着上海外高桥造船有限公司的售价创下历史新低

这位在线造船数据库 Wo rld y a r d s 董事总经理解释说： “由于造船厂订单匮乏，所以正竭尽所能建造高效船只，而并非顺应发展趋势，以高效方式建造船舶。”他进一步补充说： “它们造船只是为了谋利，而非为了建造更多船只。” 不容否认的是，今年造船厂得到了大量订单，数量相当惊人。中国船舶工业行业协会 (CANSI)发布的统计数据表明，今年前四个月中国造船厂获得的订单量激增，新订单总量达 1,157万载重吨，同比增长57%。然而，同期中国80家主要造船厂的利润总额仅为21亿人民币，同比锐减56.7%。这充分提醒我们，这段时间造船企业建造新船几乎没有利润可言。中国船舶工业行业协会副秘书长聂丽娟表示： “新订单数量与去年相比的确有所增长。不过，现在断言航运业正在重回持续复苏的正轨还为时过早。” CANSI表示，这一阶段造船量与同比下降11.9%，为1,378万载重吨。不过，总有迹象表明市场

趋势有望转变：大批希腊航运企业纷纷向造船厂发出订单，2013年世界第一航运大国希腊的航运巨头订购的新船数量相当惊人（有关详细信息，请参阅第23页）。同样，与以往一样，另一批精明的船舶投资者来自台湾，这些投资者也签下了数量可观的新船订购协议，这不禁使人感觉新船价格的确已经触底。例如，5月第二周，台湾新兴航运(Sincere Navigation) 就与上海外高桥造船有限公司签约订购两艘海峡型船舶。订购价为每艘4,680万美元，这是上海外高桥造船有限公司有史以来的最低售价。订购热潮却使某些人感到不安。中国船东协会常务副会长张守国表示： “在这个产能过剩如此严重的市场，银行、船东还有货主应该对船舶投资采取极其谨慎的态度。” 在该组织网站上发布的一封信中，张守国估计全球船舶严重供大于求，供需差高达30%。如果情况属实，则船东将进一步延长衰退期，反之造船厂老板也需要在船舶定价上发挥更多创意。 Sinoship   2013年夏季刊

我们是亚洲最大的独立海洋船舶经纪及海事咨询集团之一我们的服务包括 M3 MARINE 离岸经纪 • 租船（定期租船和光船租赁） • 销售和采购（包括新造船） M3 MARINE 专业服务 • 市场调研 • 船舶估价 • 项目分析 • 专家鉴证 • FMEA 制作&审计 • DP咨询/年度DP Trials • IMCA CMID和潜水系统审核 • 预购调查检验 • 海事人才安置 • 技术/商业尽职调查专家们为您的海洋船舶需求增添技术及商业竞争力

离岸 ■ ■ ■

向垄断高端市场发展在已经能够自主生产基本的锚处理拖船后，中国的造船厂现在渴望能够在这一日益升温的海工业务领域中攀登到更高的技术阶梯上，Katherine Si写道据 Si no Sh ip 编制的统计数据表明，中国在建造锚处理拖船(AHTS)方面拥有的市场份额处于绝对优势，占去年订单总量的40%以上。现在，中国造船厂的目标是继续攀登技术链，降低对欧洲专业技术的依赖性，并研发自主设计。中国政府在今年初发布了《全国海洋经济发展规划》，旨在推动本地近海油气行业的发展，并到2015年实现近海油气产量达到6,000万吨的目标。要想实现这些目标，中国国内必须要有一支规模相当的A HTS 船队。中海油服(C O S L) 是中国领先的油田服务提供商，其运营的近海支持船队不仅是中国规模最大的船队，而且船只种类也最为齐全。该公司计划在未来几年再添置50艘海洋工程船 (OSV)，包括AHTS和平台供应船(PSV)，用于支持国内的近海和深海工作，并进一步优化船队结构。中海油服船舶事业部副总经理蔡钿认为，中国近海石油勘探的前景非常乐观，而且中海油服将在该领域发挥越来越重要的核心作用。这将为国内造船厂带来大量订单，而且蔡钿表示，越来越多的国外船东也将选择中国造船厂为他们建造船只。太平洋造船集团(Sinopacific Shipbuilding Group)船舶设计师李榛认为： “这不仅仅是因为价格优势。”他表示，中国经济和工业的发展势头比欧洲要强劲得多。他称， “国际船东发现，与本国相比，它们更容易从中国的银行和造船厂获得财务支持。”其所供职的公司太平洋造

船集团是中国领先的私营造船厂之一，并在船舶设计方面享有盛誉。另外，该公司在AHTS 领域也有上佳表现。

4 月底，太平洋造船集团交付了一艘极为先进的小型 A H T S，所采用的设计被称为 SPA-80。

国际船东发现，与本国相比，它们更容易从中国的银行和造船厂获得财务支持该公司今年从Femco Group 获得了4艘AHTS订单。这些船将在太平洋造船集团旗下的大洋造船有限公司进行建造。入级法国船级社(Bureau Veritas) ，这些船将具有12,240制动马力(bhp)和150吨的系柱拖力，采用的是太平洋造船集团自有的 SPA-150设计。

他介绍说： “我们对自己的设计产品倍感自豪。我们所有的订单均来自于国际船东，这意味着我们的产品在整个行业内广受欢迎和认可。”他补充说： “迄今为止，中国是中低端 AHTS市场的领军者，而欧洲造船厂在建造高端产品方面仍占据主导地位。”

与此同时，重点建造从 4 , 0 0 0 b h p 到16 , 0 0 0 b h p系列 OSV的广东粤新造船厂最近向 Martens Marine交付了第三艘 E65T，这是其为对方建造的一系列船只之一。 E 6 5 T由两台CAT 3 516 C发动机提供动力，制动马力为 5,150bhp。这些发动机符合美国环境保护局2级海洋商业法规。这些船还经过优化，一次能够承载众多船员。舰桥区域的特点是工作区比传统的 5,150bhpAHTS更宽敞，更便于实施项目工作。武昌船舶重工有限责任公司也是业界闻名的AHTS造船厂，尤其擅长建造大马力船舶；而福建马尾造船厂也已获得数量可观的AHTS订单。 Sinoship   2013年夏季刊

金融 ■ ■ ■

市场萧条将延续目前，船东大量订购船只并非明智之举。Alfred Romann从Marine Money在香港举办的聚会活动上发回报道

今年5月，希腊为中国造船厂送上大礼并订购了大量船只

这就像回到了2007年：全球各国的股票市场攀升至高点，船东订购的船舶数量也相当惊人。今年的订单情况很可能会将航运业的反弹势头延缓至 2014年甚至是2015年。参加今年 3月在香港举行的Marine Money船舶融资论坛（Ship Finance Forum）的船东、租船人、金融家和业界其他利益相关者纷纷表示，这对于那些致力于为航运业的各个环节进行融资的人士而言是个坏消息—无论融资用途是购买新船还是进行重组。香港来宝集团（Noble Group）租船业务负责人Ravindranath Raghunath表示： “我们现在面临的问题是由船队发展现状造成的，即我们在经济繁荣时期获得的订单。” 自从5年前租船价格创新低以来，坏消息接踵而来，而形势快速转好的前景却相当黯淡。 “过去两个月发生了什么情况呢？我们看到订单数量创下新高。在过去这段时间内，我从没见过70天内会有这么多艘

海峡型船舶订单。过去4或5年里肯定也从未出现过这样的情况。”Raghunath如是说。 “2013 年是否是投资的好年景？您的资产负债表需要非常稳健，而且有能力在未来几年驾驭市场。”此外，还需特别注意的是，他是在希腊总理出访中国两个月前说这番话的。希腊总理5月的访华之行给中国造船厂送去了大礼，希腊航运大亨订购的船舶数量多达142艘，数量之多令人惊叹。

整个行业回归盈利状态的难度进一步加大。因此，各家银行纷纷收紧或干脆停止发放贷款。 NordLB银行汉堡船舶融资负责人Aaron Sen表示： “目前来看，融资流动性正在紧缩。这种情况不仅对船东们不利，也对银行不利，因为我们无法分担风险，我们不能像过去那样共担风险。” 据Dealogic数据显示，2012 年第3季度海事融资额已经从

2013年是否是投资的好年景？您的资产负债表需要非常稳健，而且有能力在未来几年驾驭市场。 Clarkson Asia董事总经理 Martin Rowe介绍说，新订购的船只数量不到现有船队规模的 20%，远低于2009年51%的水平，不过仍将在2014年和2015 年进一步增加全球船舶的数量。这些额外运力的加入使得

2007年第3季度400亿美元的历史高位和2011年第3季度的150 亿美元锐减至约100亿美元。不过值得庆幸的是，尽管银行非常谨慎，但仍在发放贷款。虽然发放的贷款额度各不相同，不过

DNB、Nordea、Mizuho、DVB、法国巴黎银行、美银美林集团和ABN AMRO等各大银行仍在放贷。英国诺顿·罗氏律师事务所（Norton Rose）合伙人Davide Barzilai表示，中国各家银行也在为航运行业发放更多贷款，不过实际贷款额要低于通常获得的授信额度。中国各家银行在2009年至2012年间参与的融资交易总值高达86亿美元，不过其中许多交易都与其他银行合作完成。今年，单是中国进出口银行就有望将向航运行业发放的贷款额提高 2 0 亿美元，而中国工银金融租赁公司（I C B C Financial Leasing）希望在2013 年将其船舶资产贷款组合总额翻番。 “问题在于：这些银行能否坚持到最后并等到全球经济复苏和航运业价格上涨的那一天？”Sen问道。法国巴黎银行亚洲航运业务负责人Arnold Wu认为有可能实现这个目标。他认为，与之前数十年相比，现在各家银行已经作好充分准备以应对严峻形势，并且它们更愿意与企业合作，共同化解资金难题。不过，普通融资交易的数量正在减少，同时更富创意的融资结构正日益兴起。实际上，汇丰银行、英国劳埃德银行和苏格兰皇家银行等正在设法将其航运贷款脱手，而像 Apollo、黑石和Centerbridge等其他投资者正以低价买入这些贷款。其中的一丝希望在于，市场现在似乎正处于最低位，对于资产负债表良好的投资者而言，市场具备很好的投资机会。不过，Barzilai说，就目前来看，融资可能仍将保持紧缩状态。这位律师警告说： “如果投资该领域后债务缠身，那就太得不偿失了。” Sinoship   2013年夏季刊

商品 ■ ■ ■

一路走高在SinoShip的特刊里，加州稻米贸易与咨询商The Rice Trader亚洲区副总裁V.Subramanian关注亚洲一路走高的稻米进口量美国农业部的一份最新报告显示，中国是全球最大的稻米生产和消费国，今年也将成为最大的稻米进口国。中国今年的稻米进口量将从 2012年的234万公吨增至300万公吨。鉴于截至2011年5年间中国每年的稻米进口量徘徊在45万公吨左右，因而这样大的增幅堪称惊人。该报告显示，从2012年起， “ 中国对稻米的消费需求已超过本国供应能力”。美国的这份报告与我们数月来所说的情况不谋而合。中国今年进口稻米的潜力巨大—如此巨大的潜力在稻米市场中得到广泛关注，因为2012年中国的稻米进口量非常大，而2013 年的进口量可能再创新高。很多人总是认为稻米实际对华出口量高于报道的数字。边境贸易的情况总是很难弄清楚，不过我们承认这样的边贸的确存在。中国进口稻米所起的作用有时候就像是“看不见的手”，因为会给越南、缅甸甚至巴基斯坦等国的稻米价格造成影响。去年，中国一跃成为非常重要的稻米进口国，稻米进口量紧随尼日利亚之后，排名世界第二。最低支持价格（MSP）已经上涨。中国的稻米最低支持价格连年上涨，从每公斤2.5元人民币或每公吨约424美元增至目前每公斤2.64元人民币的水平。这是中国的稻米最低支持价格连续6年上涨—证明了食品安全是中国的重中之重这一观点。这些价格与泰国的支持价格差别不大，不过有一点区

别：中国出产的所有稻米均由本国消费（2013年中国预计出产的稻米量将达到1.4 3 亿公吨，而消费量将达到1.44亿公吨），而泰国出产的稻米量是其消费量的2倍（与中国相比，泰国的稻米产量仅相当于中国产量很少的一部分，中国是全球最大的稻米生产国和消费国）。在此情况下，泰国依赖稻米出口，而食品安全则成为中国一贯关注的重要问题。因为越南稻米价格更具竞争力，所以以往从巴基斯坦购买稻米的中国买家纷纷转向购买越南稻米。这种市场敏感性的无疑是积极的，不过中国买家对价格敏感的这种本性，也意味着目前存在很多问题使对华稻米的销售非常复杂— 许多出口商都曾告诉过我们这一点。其中

分配、进口、重新包装或重新加工的总成本低于中国当地稻米价格就没有问题。眼下，尽管各国出口商在与中国买家打交道时都非常小心谨慎，但越南和巴基斯坦给中国的报价明显更加优惠。对华出口方面的观察研究

食品安全是中国各项议程中的头等大事有质量方面的问题，并且一旦稻米价格大幅下降（与合同价格相比— 合同价格一般相对较高），往往需要重新进行谈判，因此使得对华稻米出口生意更加难做。我们认为，中国的粮食政策也给稻米的进口造成了一定的影响。不过，我们越来越觉得稻米进口仍具生机，只要稻米

结果表明，与2 012年相比，今年中国的私人买家的数量更多。2012年，大多数的合同都是由中粮集团（COFCO）进行签订，即由中粮集团直接购买或使用。人民币持续升值，也是增加稻米进口量的有利因素。由于 2013年中国本地稻米价格持续上涨，人民币升值是稻米进口

更具吸引力的主要原因。中国所进口的所有大宗商品均具有这一重要的特性，如果中国注意一下2013年小麦、玉米和大豆价格的下滑（与2012 年相比），再加上人民币升值带来的额外好处，就很容易发现这一点。出于上述原因，我们感觉 2013年中国稻米的进口量将超过2012年的水平。价格稳定性时其中的一个关键性决定因素。我们发现，当价格增幅较大时，中国进口量会暂时停止增长（这从近年来印度尼西亚、孟加拉国甚至菲律宾进口稻米推高价格的情况就可以看出）。底线在于，进口稻米与中国本地稻米价格相比必须有优势，并且能够得到消费者的认同，无论是面向中国消费者的来源单一的进口产品，还是来自多国的进口产品，均是如此。 Sinoship   2013年夏季刊

■ ■ ■ 物流

1.32 中国网民去年网络购物的消费支出达到 1.32万亿

Dot.room 中国电子商务销售额的不断增长，给仓储行业带来巨大商机，作者：Jason Jiang 与航运业和航空货运业情况近似，中国仓储业近年来步履维艰。不过网民极强的网上购物消费力为该行业带来了一丝安慰。中国仓储协会对 67 家大型仓储企业所做的一项调查显示，2012 年这些企业的年总收入达 318 亿元人民币，同比增长 10.5%；不过，总货物吞吐量下滑 14% 至 7,130 万吨，净利润总额同比减少 35.5%。然而，中国仓储业正迎来转机：由于中国的电子商务市场蓬勃发展，网上购物销售额去年突破 1.32 万亿人民币，同比增长 71.3%。淘宝、阿里巴巴和京东等业界领先公司的销售业务都一直呈现爆炸性的增长，有力刺激了电子商务仓储市场的发展。房地产物业管理公司仲量联行（中国）的工程部总监司徒艺评论说： “受国内传统消费下滑的影响，零售商和相关企业对扩大仓储规模的态度更为谨慎。”他继续介绍说： “通常来说，客户对非保税仓储物 16

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业的咨询要少得多，而且市场需求也在减少。不过，电子商务企业的需求却没有任何减弱的迹象。” 司徒先生表示，尽管很少有公司能够有淘宝天猫商城那样的实力，可以在上海租赁 30,000 平方米的仓库，不过仍有许多中小规模的电子商务企业在寻求仓储空间。

三角洲地区便利的地理位置优势。有些电子商务企业已经不满足于将物流外包至第三方物流企业，而是纷纷将他们的仓库转变为企业的自身财产。据中国最大物流提供商中国外运集团的一位高管介绍，这些企业在这方面还得到了政府的政策扶持。

上海2013年将新增32万平方米的非保税仓库空间仲量联行（中国）公司的一份调查报告显示，上海 2013 年将新增 32 万平方米的非保税仓储空间。2013 年第一季度，业内领先的物流公司在上海的仓储空间已基本上全部租磬。由于上海可提供的仓储空间日益紧缺且价格愈加昂贵，有些企业正考虑将仓库迁到昆山、嘉兴和太仓等周边城市，这些地方的仓储空间相对更为充裕，而且同样享有长江

上海圆通新龙电子商务有限公司是上海圆通速递有限公司（YTO Express）的子公司，致力于为传统贸易商提供包括网络营销、供应链服务和售后服务在内的整套电子商务服务。4 月 12 日，该公司正式开始其上海仓储设施一阶段项目的运营，该设施包括三个大仓库，总面积达 12 万平方米，相当于大约 17 个足球场。 “市场形式严峻，不过也充

满机遇。我们在这个项目上投入的资金超过 5,000 万元人民币，而且今年我们将在中国打造一个全国范围的仓储系统，”上海圆通新龙的总经理孙建表示。电子商务物流提供商福建兴泰物流有限公司（CTU Logistics）常务副总许良怡认同上述观点。他表示： “电子商务仓储市场确实充满机遇。不过，传统物流提供商要想打入该市场绝非易事，因为两者在硬件和软件方面都存在很大差异，需要企业付出更多努力。” 来自澳大利亚的G o o d m a n Group正大举进军这一市场，表现不俗。该公司最近已与重庆当地政府签约，将投资 7,500 万美元建设现代化的物流园区，专门服务于重庆两江新区的高端电子商务。中国政府今年早些时候发布仓储业指南，督促仓储业中各企业加快企业转型，从单一服务提供商转变为综合物流提供商，并在电子商务物流方面投入更多精力。中国仓储协会的一位官员介绍说，中国仓储业仍存在很多问题，导致物流成本居高不下。她表示，中国的物流设施数量不足，导致租金水平上涨。北京、上海、广州、深圳和海口的仓库租赁价格以年均约 20% 的速度上涨。这位官员表示，要想找到标准化的仓库也非常困难。她指出，仓储业另外一个大问题在于物流园区设计不合理。超过 65% 的物流园区从设计功能上来看更像是房地产或贸易项目，而其中核心的物流功能往往被弱化。中国仓储协会的这位官员最后总结说： “在这方面，一些专业的海外公司在国内建设的物流园区要强得多。”

邮轮 ■ ■ ■

邮轮业稳步上升上海宣布计划建造第三座邮轮码头。如欲实现此宏大目标，仍然面临重重阻碍，Sam Chambers报道上海对发展邮轮业始终雄心勃勃。这座中国金融之都的发展从来不乏惊心动魄之举，就邮轮业而言，当地政府已明确表示不会坐失良机。四年前，上海在日益衰落的北外滩建造了第一座现代邮轮码头，接着又宣布计划在宝山区建造第二座大型码头，以供特大邮轮停靠。而今，两个码头的往来船只与日俱增。今年前四个月，乘邮轮抵沪的旅客人数增加了244.5%。6月，上海市政府宣布计划建造第三座码头，选址仍然在宝山区。上海海事局副局长晨晓光表示， “作为全球性大都市之一，两座邮轮码头远远不够，宝山区正计划建造第三座大型邮轮码头”。全球顶尖的邮轮公司之一歌诗达（C o s t a）与当地合作伙伴 —上海航空国际旅游有限公司（Shanghai Airline Tours）携手，将于2014年在中国推出首个环球邮轮服务，积极开发中国不断增长的海外

旅游需求，此举可谓使上海如虎添翼。 85,700吨、可搭载2,680名旅客的歌诗达邮轮“大西洋号” （Costa Atlantica）将于明年3 月22日从上海出发，在83天的环球航行中历经16个国家和地区的23个目的地。嘉年华邮轮集团公司亚洲区董事长兼首席执行官 P i e r Luigi Foschi表示： “作为中国邮轮业的领军企业，我们一贯秉承锐意进取的精神，致力为中国市场提供更多的创新型度假目的地。在中国首次推出环球航行便是最佳证明，而且此举是我们未来几年亚洲发展战略的重中之重，并预示着中国邮轮业发展新里程碑的到来。” 上海即将迎来另一个喜讯，皇家加勒比邮轮公司的“海洋水手号”（Mariner of the Seas）邮轮今夏将在上海安家落户。138,000总吨的“海洋水手号”是亚洲停靠过的最大的邮轮，可为旅客提供长达4/5/7晚

及更长时间的北亚航行服务。据近期在上海召开的邮轮圆桌会议透露，该市还计划将台湾作为定期邮轮航线的目的地，并积极将航线拓展至东南亚。目前，9 条由上海驶往台湾的邮轮航线已经获批。宝山区区长汪泓表示，宝山邮轮码头正积极拓展中长邮轮母港航线，除日韩外，还将延伸至新加坡、马来西亚和泰国。汪泓补充道： “航程可能约两周或一个月，便于当地居民接受”。上海希望将邮轮乘客纳入新推出的免签证计划。从1月1 日起，来自45个国家和地区的海外游客无需签证便可飞抵上海并可最长逗留72小时，这是中国首次实施此类计划。现在的目标是让乘邮轮来的游客享受免签证计划。当地政府正等待中央政府批准此项有关邮轮的新举措。到目前为止进展顺利，但依然有人对此表示质疑。 “建造第三座码头未免为

时过早”，一位资深业界观察员评论道， “现在没有能够证明这项大型投资的游客数量，对邮轮旅游而言，使用人烟稀少的码头才是上上之策，因为它拥有极佳地理位置，并更容易从这里探索城市风光。” 然而，中心区码头排水量 70,000吨的限制条件则是一个难题。同时，宝山码头位于市郊工业区，地理位置不佳。另一位邮轮专家敦促相关部门精简邮轮业务，称邮轮公司在上海开展业务需要通过太多机构审批。 “过分注重码头建设，但市场开发力度却不足，”这位专家表示，并补充道： “有意向，但没有持续跟进落实。” 同时，关于计划在浦东中心区建造第四座邮轮码头的猜测并未完全平息。

1,020 亿美元，此数字为 2012年中国旅客的境外旅游开支，同比增长40%，使中国一举成为世界第一大出境游消费国。

Sinoship   2013年夏季刊

■ ■ ■ 人物专访

低迷时期的经验教训 Katherine Si采访大新华物流集团首席执行官李晓明，该公司是近年来国际上最受争议的海运公司之一

在

SinoShip 采访之际，李晓明

看起来略微有些饱经沧桑之感，确实，他经历了风雨。他是在这次超长的低迷时期中最受争议的海运公司—大新华物流集团首席执行官，这家公司上庭的天数比OJ●辛普森还多。不过，李晓明坚定认为他的公司已从过去的经营中吸取了教训，公司现在秉承的宗旨则是谨慎。

海运业在很长一段时间内仍将处于低迷状态在 2008 年秋天之前，大新华物流集团曾是海运业最令人兴奋的公司之一，它在极短时间内从无名之辈一跃成为重要的船东、租船人和造船企业，并在许多方面可以与由 Kang Duk-soo 掌舵的韩国 STX 集团相抗衡。像 Kang 一样，当低迷时期到来时，大新华这个海运帝国背后的一些问题便显露出来。针对该公司的法律诉讼案 18

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件纷至沓来，该公司是海航集团子公司，海航集团是中国大型综合企业，在其众多控股资产中还包括中国第一大私营航空公司—海南航空。李晓明表示，这次经历深深改变了公司的运营方式。首先，船队规模大幅收缩，由高峰时的 100 艘缩减至今天的 38 艘。此外，这段时间的目标是使大新华剥离过去的现货租船业务，以便腾出更多精力着重发展长期货物运输业务。李晓明说，目前没有扩大船队规模或开辟新航线的计划。公司正在忙于处置老旧船只。李晓明说， “我们知道，目前新船和二手船只的价格都比较低，但我们不会抄底订购船只。” “在海运业的低迷时期，我们吸取了很多经验教训，”李晓明坦言。 “我们无法控制供需平衡，并且容易盲目扩张。但现在，大新华的业务模式已发生了根本转变。” 该公司的确转变了业务模式，并大幅削减了海运业务。李晓明说， “大新华是一家综合物流运营商，海运业务在整个业务中所占的比重并不大。”“考虑到海运业在很长一段时间

内还将处于低迷状态，我们已经大幅收缩了海运业务。我们公司的发展方向是在电子商务和信息技术的基础上建立现代化的综合物流业务模式。” 发展海运业务的雄心壮志似乎已经被束之高阁。律师们却对此感到非常惋惜。

大新华物流集团大新华物流集团于 2007 年开始运营，是海航集团三大支柱产业之一。该集团的主营业务是快运、装备制造和海运。截至 2012 年底，公司资产高达 650 亿人民币，年收入超过 150 亿人民币，员工人数近 13,000 人。公司现有船只 38 条，去年散货运输量为 2,771 万吨和 660,500 标准箱。旗下子公司之一，金海重工，是中国十大造船厂之一。

人物专访 ■ ■ ■

专注核心业务

Mats Berglund是香港最大的船东太平洋航运（Pacific Basin）的首席执行官，他告诉Sam Chambers，自己掌管的航运公司现在只专注于干散货运输和拖船业务。

来

自香港太平洋航运金钟总部的消息确定无疑：专注。自瑞典人Mats Berglund去年接任香港最大船东太平洋航运（按船队船只数量划分）的首席执行官一职至今，为了使这家知名企业转亏为盈，快速剥离了非核心业务。目前，Berglund已经剥离了亏损的滚装船业务，并出售其在南京的散杂货运码头中的权益，从而终止了进入项目货航运业务的新计划。海事测量及咨询业务公司 PacMarine Services也被拆分出来。Berglund 告诉SinoShip： “最好是把一两件事做得很出色，而不是在四五件事上都表现平平。”

现在是购入更多船只的好时机

在描述自己所执掌的企业时，Berglund 尽量简单明了。他表示： “我们是一家致力于干散货运输的上市企业，拖船方面的业务非常强。因此，过于追求多元化发展对我们没有意义。” 更为内行的读者在读了太平洋航运的财务报告之后，都会注意到该公司“瘦身”的收效。太平洋航运2012年财报显示，公司净亏损1.58亿美元，比起2011年3,200万的利润额相去甚远。不过，如果从该公司的基本面来看，该公司目前的经济状况实际上要好于一年前的水平。该公司之所以2012 年业绩表现不佳，主要是因为经营不善的滚装船业务冲销了1.99亿美元。非常低迷的干散货市场全靠太平洋航运拖船业务 3,800万美元的营收才得以维持。 Berglund强调说， “太平洋航运的财务状况非常稳健。”他表示，市场疲软之势还将持续一段时间。他补充说： “我们有

点乐见这种情况出现，因为我们需要看到新订单数量下降，并淘汰更多老旧船只达到平衡。” 据B erglu nd介绍，尽管轻便型散货船是太平洋航运更擅长、看起来比竞争对手做得更好的领域，公司在该领域的领先优势仍旧受到了吨位更大的新船的猛烈冲击。去年是干散货运输市场有史以来交付量最高的一年。Berglund明智地说： “情况不会一夜之间就变得更好。”在加盟太平洋航运之前，Berglund曾在Stena供职20年，从大学一毕业就开始在这家公司工作。在干散货运输市场仍处于萧条之际，太平洋航运的掌门人依然从中看到了商机。 “现在是购入更多船只的大好时机，借此机会我们可以立足于长远，增加更多的运量。”他表示。太平洋航运目前运营有12 0 艘灵便型散货船和40艘大灵便型散货船。共160艘船中，约4 0 艘船是太平洋航运自有的船只。该公司的目标是将自有船只所占的比例从2 5%提升至50 %。Berglu nd指出： “ 相对来说，我们更偏爱二手船只，因为这样见效快。” 这些船舶的模式简单，不会改变。 “货物为王，”Berglund表示， “这家公司深知这一点，其构建基础是COA模式。所有船只都供我们自己使用。” 从太平洋航运的全球布局来看，鉴于该公司最近在大西洋沿岸（包括斯坦福和南非德班）设立了多个办事处，公司的名称也许会引起别人的误解。Berglund戏谑地说： “太平洋航运这段时间大西洋的味道更浓一些。”该公司业务扩展的下一个方向可能是印度洋，公司这位首席执行官表示： “我们能够在该地区取得进一步的发展。”

太平洋航运香港最大的干散货运输运营企业目前运营着16 0 艘船只，其中四分之一为公司自有。公司计划将自有船比例提升至50%。公司成立于1987年，在过去这些年被多方买下股份。于2004年在香港上市。

Sinoship   2013年夏季刊

■ ■ ■ 人物专访

加强联系在希腊总理5月访华期间，签订了很多新船订单。船舶融资专家 George Xiradakis是此次随希腊总理出访的代表团成员之一，并在签订的许多合约中发挥了重要作用

仔

细留意一下近期希腊船东在华签订的多笔新船融资和订购协议（具体实例请参阅第 13页），不难发现有一个人的身影经常斡旋于签约双方之间，非常醒目，他就是George Xiradakis。外界日益认为他在世界第一航运大国希腊和世界第一造船大国之间扮演着最重要的桥梁作用。 XRTC是Xiradakis运营的公司，负责为希望打造国际和希腊航运投资组合的航运银行提供咨询建议。过去五年来，XRTC一直格外关注中国，特别是中国国家开发银行。 Xiradakis解释说:“我们的目标是为我们的合作伙伴银行—中国国家开发银行— 提供咨询服务，帮助其达成双边交易而非银团交易。我们坚信，这是中国各银行培养经验丰富的航运业务团队，并避免因航运投资组合管理不善而遭受发展挫折的唯一有效途径。” Xiradakis近来格外忙碌，在希腊总理安东尼斯●萨马拉斯于5月访问北京和上海期间，他陪同访华代表团中的多位希腊船东到中国各地访问。 Xiradakis介绍说，希腊总理的访华之行之所以大获成功，有多方面原因。他说： “ 希腊现在已经恢复与其经济合作伙伴开展合作，这实际上宣告希腊可能退出欧元区所引发的恐慌已经结束，证明希腊已经准备好接受来自中国的投资。” 同样，希腊航运业的高级代表随希腊总理访华代表团出访中国，也进一步深化了希腊同中国间的海事关系。此次访华期间签订了三笔贷款协议，充分表明希

凭借多年的经验积累，希腊船东已经知晓如何把握航运周期 20

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腊主要船东对中国金融市场的信任，反之亦然。希腊Anangel和戴安娜航运公司 (Diana)分别与中国进出口银行和DNB签署了银团交易；此外中国国家开发银行也与 ParagonShipping签署了一项双边交易，使得中希两国船舶融资方案的融资额共增加约 2.3亿美元。自从四年前中国总理温家宝宣布为希腊船东采购中国船舶提供一揽子金融支持以来，两国之间签署的贷款总额已增至约14亿美元。此外，GoldenUnion与中国国家开发银行签订成熟的投资意向书以及Dynagas和中国进出口银行在液化天然气市场开展合作，都可以看出希腊对先进船舶的兴趣。GeorgeEconomou与上海外高桥造船有限公司商讨签订离岸订单，也是一种积极进展。 Xiradakis介绍说，尽管此次希腊总理访华之行期间达成的所有协议都非常重要，不过其中最引人注目的莫过于希腊私有化机构与中国国家发展银行之间达成的谅解备忘录。由此，中国对希腊的投资额不仅将猛增，还可使希腊船东与中国投资者设立合资企业。在XRTC看来，中希两国以合资企业形式在航运投资领域建立合作关系，是一个全新的增长领域。这位融资大师称： “我们坚信在不久的未来，上海资本市场将准备好吸纳这样的方案，而这将为中国和希腊投资者和船舶运营商提供大量机遇。” 之前外界对希腊总理访华期间希腊航运企业在中国船厂订购的142艘船舶有很多误读，而这样的误读无疑会牵动全球范围内其他面临订单短缺压力的造船企业的心弦。实际上，该数字是指希腊航运企业在中国的现有总订单数，其中包括已经在建的船舶和最近签约的订单。 Xiradakis介绍说： “就船舶数量而言，这一数字占中国现有造船订单总数的10% 到15%，不过如果按价值计算，所占的比重肯定要更高。”他补充说： “不过，希腊在

华船舶订单量依然显露出令人倍受鼓舞的迹象，不仅订单数量可观，而且希腊航运企业开始真正把谈判和订购的重心放在高科技船舶上，包括液化天然气船只和海工船。我预计，未来几个月内在这些方面肯定会有所进展。” 近几个月来，新船订单接踵而至，表明希腊船东认为市场已经触底反弹。Xiradakis同意此观点，表示希腊船东还将带来更多订单。Xiradakis表示： “凭借多年的经验积累，希腊船东已经知晓如何把握航运周期。因此，在我们看来，希腊船东将会在各个领域下更多订单，而且订单方向甚至将转向精密程度最高的船舶。” 我们会看到Xiradakis在未来签署订单的过程中发挥更重要的作用。

XRTC XRTC是一家金融咨询和顾问服务公司，该公司创建于1999 年，旨在为有意进入希腊航运市场或继续在希腊航运市场开展运营的国际银行充当代理人。

人物专访 ■ ■ ■

裕民航运股份有限公司裕民航运股份有限公司( U-Ming) 原名裕民运输公司( Yu e M i n g Tra nspor tation Co)，创立于198 4 年，主要业务是提供水泥、干散货和工业原材料的海运服务。该公司于1990年在台北上市，总共拥有并运营45艘船只，总运力达518万载重吨，其中包括11艘在建的散货船。该公司还从事超大型油轮业务。

为何现在买船势在必行台湾最富有的大亨之一徐旭东(Douglas Hsu)向Engen Tham谈到，在经济低迷时期要善于把握机会低价买入船只

徐

旭东已经年过70，其执掌的远东集团(Far Eastern Group) 旗下有2 0 0多家企业，业务范围覆盖从水泥到银行业等多个行业。在其多元化控股的众多企业中，徐旭东先生是裕民航运股份有限公司 (U-Ming Marine Transport Corp)董事长。这家航运企业是台湾最富盛名的散货船航运公司之一，同时也是最受徐旭东先生器重的子公司之一。据《福布斯》杂志估计，徐旭东先生的财富总值达14亿美元。其中很大一部分财富是徐旭东先生善于把握时机赚取的，徐旭东先生过去几个月对裕民航运股份有限公司所采取的举措就可以证明这一点。

航运业具有显著的周期性特点，在该行业中订购船舶就像是在皮球触底之前把它抓住，把握时机非常重要。从历史经验来看，当台湾企业倾向于订购船舶时，这显然表明新造船只的价格正在逼近最低点。徐旭东先生若有所思地说： “市场是否已经触底，这个问题很难讲。他审慎的说： “我们正在利用这段时间进行船舶更换。市场状况如此低迷，而且我们正在实施一项战略性

举措，不过这并不表示市场已经触底。” 徐先生透露说，裕民航运股份有限公司正在出售所有船龄超过15年的船只，并寻求在适当的时机购入更“高效的”散货船。裕民航运股份有限公司去年一直忙于在中国和日本洽谈低价购入船舶。徐先生介绍说： “此举将大幅提升我们的整体效率。” 他解释说： “大家都在讨论到底谁的成本更低，这正是我为何介入其中的原因。从另一个角度来看，您可能不禁要问， ‘既然利润率这么低，您为何还有购入新船呢？’ 不过，这关系到一个迥然不同的问题，因为如果您想要保持经济效益，您就需要接受目前利润率极低这一现实，这样您就别无选择，只能想办法来降低成本。要降低成本，而且利润率很低，不过市场状况的好坏则是另一回事。” 徐旭东先生敢于吐露真言，所以他所作的评论往往在航运领域倍受关注。徐旭东先生在4月的一次航运活动之前所发表的评论中，呼吁彻底整顿航运行业。徐先生说： “产能过剩、燃油成本飙升、技术冲击和公众环保意识增强，在所有各方面因素的共同推动之下，彻底改造航运业势在必行。”他继续补充说： “面对如此艰巨的挑战，迫切需要变革航运业的经营之道。只有实施彻底的变革，航运业才能存活下去，才有机会在日新月异且日益动荡的全球经济中重新振兴。”

如果您想保持经济效益，您就需要接受目前利润率极低这一现实，这样您就别无选择，只能想办法来降低成本。 Sinoship   2013年夏季刊

■ ■ ■ 专题

利润空间被挤压钢铁价格高企以及航运业陷入萧条是拆船公司蒸蒸日上的必要因素。中国拆船厂的日子似乎并不好过，Katherine Si写道

如

果存在反周期行业的话，那么拆船业绝对算得上是一个。这个行业常靠其他行业不景气过活，赌的就是指数保持低位运行。不过，拆船业的竞争非常惨烈，即便船东处境艰难，拆船厂未必一定好过。尤其看看中国拆船厂的情况，它们在干船坞中拆解老旧船只的环保方法成本较高，因此，与来自印度次大陆的竞争对手相比，它们获得的业务量自然要少一些。

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此外，在目前航运业低迷之际，恰逢中国钢铁价格下跌，钢铁需求不振。去年，更多载重吨位更大、船龄更短的船只被淘汰拆解，其中散货船数量最多。在被拆解的船只中，约 89% 均由长江下游和珠江地区的船厂进行拆解。

根据中国拆船协会 (China National Ship Recycling Association)的统计数据，2012 年，中国被拆解的船只数量增长 8.8%，但利润却大幅下滑，而且绝大多数拆船厂处于亏损状态。中国拆船协会会长谢德华对 SinoShip 表示： “随着全球航运业持续低迷，越来越多的船东和船厂把目光投向拆船业。不过，航运业在两到三年后就会复苏，这也意味着拆船厂即将面临困难时期。” 中国政府近日出台规定，通过财政手段鼓励地方船东淘汰老旧船只，这是几年前颁布的一项方案的后续措施，之前颁布的方案旨在提高在长江流域行驶的船只的现代化水平。上海国际航运研究中心近期发布的一份

目前航运业低迷之际，恰逢中国钢铁价格下降，需求不振

拆船 ■ ■ ■

报告显示，超过 70% 的船东均愿意淘汰拆解船队中的部分船只。

国外企业加剧竞争中国目前面临的部分问题在于，如同造船业一样，拆船中心数量过多。最近，许多来自亚洲其他国家和欧洲的外国企业纷纷在华设立了拆船厂。法国回收公司威立雅(Veolia)开始涉足中国拆船业务，该公司斥资10亿人民币在广东省江门市新会区设立了一个环保拆船项目，旨在建设一座每年能够处理800,000轻吨船只的大型拆船厂。这座大型拆船厂计划三年完工。威立雅江门拆船项目经理梁俊杰（LiangJunjie，音译）对SinoShip表示： “这是威立雅在中国投资建造的首座也是唯一一座拆船厂。在我们看来，市场前景似乎不错。” 新会，威立雅选择开设拆船厂的所在地，这里是中国拆船业传统基地，拥有30 年的拆船历史，该地区的拆船量占全国拆船总量的近50%。与此同时，另一家外国企业，爱尔兰资本投资的CEMS-Dalian(CEMS-D)也计划在大连附近的庄河市建造一座拆船厂。 CEMS-D创始人兼董事长John Cronin介绍说： “我们已经与一家中国私营企业建立了战略联盟伙伴关系，将共同设计、开发和运营一家先进的船舶拆解和回收厂，该厂将采用最新技术。我们的目标是将这座

2012年，中国被拆解的船只数量增长8.8%，但利润却大幅下滑，而且绝大多数拆船厂处于亏损状态拆船厂发展成为全球领先的拆解和回收中心，并且我们已经得到中国中央政府和地方政府的大力支持。” 此外在大连，新加坡集装箱运输公司太平船务有限公司（Pacific International Lines，简称“PIL”）也与大连顶尖造船企业大连船舶重工集团有限公司以及钢铁巨头鞍钢合作运营一座大型拆船中心。越来越多的外国公司涉足该领域，但谢会长对这种情况并不完全看好。 “就市场总产能来看，我个人认为，越来越多的外国企业在华拓展其拆船业务并非好事。”他继续道： “然而，就技术、沟通和合作而言，对我们来说是好事。” 就中国船队的船龄情况而言，显然中国要淘汰的船舶数量比其他国家多，不过拆船厂是否会像这些新建的拆船企业设想的那样利润丰厚？

产能过剩拆船业产能过剩的问题已经日益凸现，大量造船厂和修船厂在造船业不景气之际为另辟收入源而纷纷涉足这个已经饱和的行业，使得局势每况愈下。中船澄西船舶修造有限公司（新荣基

地）是中船澄西船舶修造有限公司与一家香港企业合资成立的船舶修理企业，该公司的业务范围已经拓展至拆船。日本船级社Class NK也已涉足该行业，并为客户提供咨询顾问服务和认证服务。新荣基地今年将目标锁定在100,000轻吨船舶的拆船业务。就在 1 8 个月前，在新加坡证劵交易所上市的扬子江船业集团( Ya n g z iji a n g Shipbuilding)收购了一家江苏拆船厂80%的股份，借此实现业务多元化，涉足拆船业务。该集团也在扩建该拆船厂，每年最多可拆解15艘超大型油轮。另外，还有一条值得注意的新闻，据说中国北部的天津天马拆船工程有限公司的拆船厂最近已经迁往黄海沿岸，该地区拥有更广阔的空间、更长的码头和大型起重设备。未来几个月，这片工业废弃用地就将变为一座竣工的拆船厂，使该公司的产能提高一倍多。然而，就在这批新产能进入市场时，正值中国的钢铁价格处于低谷之际，而这正是影响拆船企业利润的另一个重要因素。中国拆船厂的日子似乎并不好过，目前它们在难以获得利润的情况下，只能选择以量取胜。

海工拆船业务可能带来滚滚财源：Grieg Green 一位倡导采用环保技术拆船的业界大亨表示，《2009年香港国际安全与无害环境拆船公约》需要再等10年才能正式生效。Grieg Green首席执行官Petter Heier（照片）对SinoShip表示： “我们正在等待《2009年香港国际安全与无害环境拆船公约》正式生效，不过至少还要等上7年。该公约正式获批依然任重而道远。” 《2009年香港国际安全与无害环境拆船公约》在2009年5月召开的一次外交会议上正式审议通过。该公约旨在确保船舶在使用寿命结束后进行回收利用时，不会对人体健康、安全以及环境造成任何不必要的风险。如果该公约最终成为法律，对Grieg Green这样的公司将是利好消息。 Grieg Green是Grieg航运集团旗下子公司，该集团是一家综合挪威航运企业，拥有超过125年丰富的海运经验。 Grieg Green使用自己的“打分卡”评级方法，精心挑选全球最顶尖的拆船厂。该

公司可为那些寻求使用更环保的方式拆解船只的船东提供管理服务。 Heier承认，尽管船东面临的首要问题是拆解旧船以缓解全球船队运力过剩的情况，但眼下的问题却归结为价格。他承认说： “许多船东必须淘汰旧船只，不过价格问题仍然是头等大事。” Heier说，船东之所以出售船舶，是因为他们急需现金。他指出，由于航运业已经连续五年走势低迷，所以运往拆船厂进行拆解的船舶船龄越来越短。他指出，船东淘汰的船只往往只有15年的船龄。不过，目前的情况对Heier的业务并没有多大帮助，因为印度和中国在每轻吨拆船价格方面的差距仍有50美元之多，而 Grieg Green选择在中国开展拆船业务。他承认： “中国拆船业的利润非常微薄。” 截至目前，G r i e g G r e e n 在开业后前 2 0 个月里已经有了4 个客户和六艘船只订单。委托其拆船的船东分别是 Sinokor、Gearbulk、Hoegh及其母公司Grieg。

“中国拆船业的利润非常微薄” Petter Heier

海工业务—尤其是自升式钻井平台和半潜式钻井平台—可能是一个新的业务增长点。例如，全球65%的自升式钻井平台的使用时间已经超过25年。 Heier认为，不可能在印度从事自升式钻井平台的拆解工作，因为印度根本无法把自升式钻井平台拖上岸。他说： “海工企业对其业务的环保要求往往更高。” 目前面临的挑战是如何将海工设备从操作所在地运往拆船厂，而Grieg Green则愿意使用重吊船来应对这个难题。

Sinoship   2013年夏季刊

Thome-SinoShip-Ad-HalfPage-2013.05.02-FA.pdf 1 5/2/2013 4:22:10 PM

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船员 ■ ■ ■

成本优势正在缩小在我们对中国船员能力所作的年度调查中，我们征求了几家航运管理领军企业的意见

. S h ip s亚洲区业务负责人 Keit h Parsons指出，与其他主要劳动力输出国相比，中国船员在劳动力成本方面仍“略占”优势。此外，中国船员在适应更长时间的航海生活方面也更胜一筹。香港船舶管理公司优尼万（Univa n）全球海员人事总经理Captain Siddhartha Gopalkrishna介绍说，中国船员做事更有条理，并且技术水平过硬。 Gopalkrishna表示，中国船员在遇到困难时够快速高效的找到解决方案，并补充说： “他们具备合作精神，待人真诚，并且职业素养较高。” 香港华林船舶（Wallem Group）集团董事总经理Simon Doughty认为： “由于深受中国文化的熏陶，中国船员忠诚度较高，并勇于克服各种艰难险阻，无论是技术问题还是人际关系问题都不在话下。” 在中国的船员文化中，指导后辈或年轻船员的氛围也很浓厚，因此在一艘满是中国船员的船只上工作的氛围非常和谐，因为所有人都紧密合作，相互关爱。

V.Ships的Parsons评论说，从更广泛的意义来说，中国拥有巨大的规模优势，因为中国人力资源储备非常雄厚，如果得到适当的培训和扶植，完全可以发展成为长久的海运人力资源后备力量。

目前培养的合格船员数量严重不足，难以满足供需之间的差距中国船员有哪些不足之处？贝仕船舶管理有限公司（Bernhard Schulte S h ip m a n a g e m e nt）首席执行官 R aja i s h Bajpaee指出，中国船员往往过于敏感，尤其在各国船员云集的船只上出海工作时更是如此，因此可能在某些场合显得不够果敢自信。此外，Bajpaee还表示，中国船员在提高英语熟练程度和加强船上作业安全以及卫生等方面还有待改善。

所有调查对象都提到了中国船员的英语水平问题，但V.Ships的Parsons在指出这一问题时显得很有见地： “大家必须牢记这一点，如今中国人只要英语水平过硬并受过良好教育，那么就很容易获得大量工作机会，因此，对于此类顶尖人才而言，从事航海事业并非他们的职业首选。” 其他不足之处包括缺乏横向思维。优尼万的Gopalkrishna表示， “做事灵活一些可能会有助于中国船员的发展。他们有时比较教条，过于固守陈规，其实换一种方式的效果可能会更好。” 中国船员一贯在安全纪录方面声誉欠佳。Fleet Management董事总经理Kishore Rajvanshy批评中国船员“安全意识不足”。华林船舶的Doughty认为，另一个不足之处是商业意识不足，第三方管理公司在招聘中国员工时要特别注意这一点。中国船员习惯为中国大型国有航运公司工作，例如中远集团和中国海运集团。在这种情况下，船东、租船人、船舶运营商、港口代理人和供应商均归属于同一个组织，但这与国际航运规范大相径庭。 Sinoship   2013年夏季刊

■ ■ ■ 专题

需求迅猛增长，意味着近几年中国船员的工资水平实现了稳步增长为提高中国船员在国际船只上的工作表现，中国政府还需在哪些方面开展工作？参与调查的船舶管理公司一致呼吁中国政府应允许国际航运人力资源代理机构在中国境内开展自由运作。贝仕船舶管理有限公司的Bajpaee提出的建议可为一语中的，他说“解除对中国本土获得许可证和没有获得许可证的航运人力资源代理机构的束缚；允许国外知名运营商设立人力资源和培训机构，并摒弃过多的审批和繁文缛节的要求。 Fleet Management的Rajvanshy对此深表同意。他表示： “我认为中国政府可以在帮助船东和船舶管理公司设立独立的人力资源办事机构以按照国际标准选拔和雇佣船员方面发挥良好作用。”目前，这种做法尚未获得中国政府批准。 Bajpaee对于这个问题还有其他看法。他还谈到了另一种想法： “需要了解雇主和船员在税务和支付社会保险金方面有哪些要求。应该取消对船员在各家机构间自由流动的限制。船员应该能够自由选择去他们认为有价值且素质较高的公司工作。” 华林船舶老板D ou g ht y 给出了多条建议，其中包括提升STCW培训的质量，并使该培训与其他船员输出大国通行的培训标准保持一致。 D o u g h t y 解释说： “超出通过考试或 S T CW必修课程范畴的培训内容在中国相对较较为罕见。在这方面，中国海运业所有利益相关者都必须认识到持续开展专业升级培训作为一项投资所具有的重要性，这对于船员和整个行业都是如此，决不能将此视为赚钱或滥发证书的许可证。” 应该为国营培训学校指派素质更高的讲师。 Doughty还表示，应增加与国外培训学校之间开展的交流项目。 V.Ships的Parsons认为，中国政府应研究

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撰写一些讲义，以高升本国船员的素质。他建议说： “中国政府应鼓励国际培训机构在华设立培训和培养机构。”

您是否发现，随着中国在全球海运事务和国际贸易中的重要性越来越高，国际船东对中国船员的需求也与日俱增？ Fleet Management的Rajvanshy非常认同上述说法。他说： “随着往来中国的海运贸易量越来越大，加上在现阶段经济不景气的大背景下需要奉行节俭之风，使得对中国船员的需求量与日俱增。 “实际上，由于经常到中国港口停靠，所以中国船员的人员更迭成本相对较低，因此对船东们非常有吸引力。” 华林船舶的Doughty对此深表同意。他指出： “中国船员物有所值，因此在当今充满挑战的航运市场中，中国船员对于追求成本效益的船东具有较强吸引力。” 不过，Doughty告诫说，中国船员需要着眼于航运业的长远未来。随着在航运业中工作的中国船员人数与日俱增，船舶管理

公司和运营商正在寻求更多能够在海运和技术方面担任管理职务的中国船员。此外，港口运营商也不断要求他们的领港员、检查员和顾问具备一定的海事经验，因此中国船员不应只着眼于从事简单的航海工作。鉴于对中国船员的需求有了新变化下，因此优尼万的Gopalkrishna质疑中国是否有足够多的称职船员。他认为： “随着在华船只吨位的增大，合格船员的供需矛盾更加凸显，而且中国尚未培养出足够多的称职船员以弥补这一差距。另外，他还提及航运业面临的一个紧迫问题，即在经济蓬勃发展的中国，航运业并未被视为一个非常有吸引力的职业选项。此外，Gopalkrishna还告诫说，中国船东最近刚上调了船员的薪资水平，这使得国际船东转向其他新兴市场。 Rajvanshy对这种说法表示同意。他告诫说： “需求迅猛增长，意味着近几年中国船员的工资水平实现了稳步增长，因此中国船员相对于国外同行的成本优势也在缩小。”

燃料与润滑油 ■ ■ ■

天然气动力船— 中国正在加快脚步首席通讯员Katherine Si探访燃料发展

中

国正在加快脚步转向使用液化天然气（LNG）作为船用燃料。中国政府预计会在今年下半年发布LNG动力船行业标准，以促进“从石油到LNG”转型计划和LNG燃料市场的发展。目前，在中国有近200艘船只已转变为采用LNG作为动力源，不过，由于缺少相关行业标准，市场还没有完全实现商业化。在过去两年中，中国船级社和中国海事局已发布了一些指导文件，但都没有付诸

实施。 “中国的LNG市场仍然面临许多发展限制，包括缺少技术标准和基础设施，市场要想实现稳定发展还需相当长的一段时间，”中国石油大学LNG研究专家刘毅军表示。瓦锡兰（ W ä r t s i l ä）和劳氏船级社（Lloyd’s Register）于4月在上海共同举办了一场行业研讨会，为中国海运业带来了关于使用LNG作为船用燃料的重要见解。瓦锡兰天然气专家Barry Yang与劳氏船级社的Joseph Morelos分别就使用LNG作为

发展限制包括缺少技术标准和基础设施

燃料的不同方面进行了详细的介绍。 “劳氏船级社已经制定了总体框架和解决方案，但最终应用还需要由工程专家们根据个案进行分析，”劳氏船级社天然气燃料领域的高级验船师和全球专家Morelos 说道。他强调，在使用L NG 作为燃料的过程中，除了燃料贮存解决方案的可用性之外，安全性也是一个关键因素。他列举了 LNG运输船和以LNG动力船之间最重要的区别，用以解释“燃气危险区域”的定义。同时，对于运输船而言，这被限定在一个明确定义的空间，它可以以LNG动力船的类型为基础，延伸至多个领域。同时，瓦锡兰部门销售总监Barry Yang认为，船舶不同，对于储罐位置的要求也不尽相同。

长江走在前列在采用LNG作为船用燃料的进程中，取得进展最大的是中国长江流域。中国海洋石油总公司、中国外运长航集团以及中国三江航天集团正在联手打造长江流域LNG工业链。这三家公司希望通过建造新船和对中国外运长航集团船队的大量船只进行改 Sinoship   2013年夏季刊

■ ■ ■ 专题

LNG只适合一小部分船东造，使LNG在公司的燃料供应方面发挥更重要的作用。 “中国外运长航集团目前有2 ,0 0 0多艘船只，其运力约占长江流域总运力的 40%,”这家船东的一位负责人说，并补充说： “这些船只大多数使用柴油发动机。日益增长的燃料价格给公司带来了巨大的财务压力。集团每年要消耗约600,000吨柴油燃料，成本约30亿人民币。”如果这些船转为采用LNG为动力，则该公司的燃料开支可节省高达20%。另一家能源巨头中石油已经在中国海洋石油总公司之前制定了针对同一市场的发展计划。中石油计划投资 2 0 0 亿人民币沿长江流域开发 2 0 个 L N G 加注站，目前其中五个加注站已获得政府批准。另外，英国富地石油公司（Fortune Oil）旗下子公司重庆富江能源科技有限公司（富江能源）位于长江上的第一个LNG加注站计划在今年8月投入运营。该LNG加注站的LNG储量可达2,000立方米，每天可为20艘船只提供LNG加注服务。富江能源在2 012年改装了其第一艘 LNG/柴油双燃料船舶，并将在今年改造更多船只。富江能源总经理罗次华说,该公司将首

先对大型船运公司的船只实施免费改装，然后从船运公司节省下的能源成本中分成，以缓解自身的财政压力。罗次华说，该公司还计划在武汉、南京和上海周边建设4-5个LNG加注站。

说得多，做得少不过，尽管船东可能受监管压力所迫都在谈论采用 L N G 作为“救世主”燃料，但并非所有人都相信这就是正确的解决之道。Fo b a s 全球燃料和发动机性能

咨询服务经理Douglas Raitt正是这群持怀疑态度的人士中的一位，他怀疑冷却的天然气是否能随时为船舶提供动力。Foba s是英国船级社— 劳氏船级社下属企业。 “正如我们所知，燃料产业的持续时间会比人们预期的要长，”R a it t 说道，然后又补充说：“ L N G只适合一小部分船东。” 这位Fobas管理者警告说： “关于燃料的争论在未来两到三年内将会更加分化。”

为世界贸易提供润滑油润滑油在中国遇到的挑战

CAROLINE HUOT “竞争非常激烈”

a r ol i ne Huo t 最近刚刚就任K PI Bridge Oil全球船用润滑油总监，该公司是一家全球燃料代理和贸易公司，并长期为中国供应润滑

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油。她之前曾先后就职于Total和Gulf Oil Marine。鉴于近期业界注意力都投向了快速扩展的中国海洋大舞台，Huot坦言在中国销售润滑油正面临着“激烈竞争”。 Huot说，供应商面临的主要挑战是物流问题，原因是海岸线过长和所服务的港口数量过多。 “优秀供应商需要能够在主港和副港实现供货，确保在任何时候都能够供货并能够满足处理完税港口服务以及免税港口服务的挑战。” 至少能够在主发动机级以散装方式供货无疑是提供成本效益型服务的额外要求。向船厂和新造船只提供服务的特点同样增加了运营的复杂程度。 “致力于提供卓越服务并深入了解当地交付条件的中国供应商的涌现是近年来最大的变化。任何重大船用润滑油供应网络都无法忽视如此庞大的实力和日益敏锐的科技意识，”Huot 最后总结道。

CHIMBUSCO 中国船舶燃料有限责任公司（Chimbusco）是由中石油和中国远洋运输集团成立的合资企业，同时是中国第一大船用燃料供应商，估计其所占市场份额约为 60%。该公司香港分支的消息灵通人士对 SinoShip 表示，该公司将很快对其加油船队进行现代化改造。

枢纽：上海 ■ ■ ■

东方明珠塔是上海雄心壮志的象征

摩登时尚的外表之下在中国的金融大都市做生意远非设想的那么容易，作者：Engen Tham 沿着上海的地平线望去，东方明珠塔格外醒目，堪称象征着上海雄心壮志的标志性建筑。东方明珠塔外观现代时尚，找不到一丝中国设计的痕迹。从这处旅游景点，就可以想见上海想要成为哪种类型的商业中心。不过，就在数步之遥，行人在兜售中药的商贩中间悠闲地漫步，空气中弥漫着臭豆腐的味道。对于在上海经商的航运企业而言，他们同样会发现上海这里新老事物交融，令人兴奋。自从建设上海国际航运中心的计划1995年获得国务院批准以来，上海已经采取大量措施来改善其海事基础设施。从去年11月推出上海干散货、油轮指数，到建造芦潮港和赵家沟港，上海市政府迄今为止所实施的多项举措看起来已经打造出一个绝佳的商业中心。然而，上海光鲜的外表下掩盖着根深蒂固的经商规则，绝对会让那些把上海看作现代大都市的人们大吃一惊。上海是外资企业最密集的地区，也是吸引外商直接投资数额最大的地区，不过，在这里，人际关系，也就是所说的关系的重要性，与中国其他不够发达的城市并无区别。

“您可能会在会议上与人会面，然后结识对方；不过，等真正到了该拿项目的时候，您会发现之前建立的关系不够硬，根本不管用。要想真正达成交易，您需要设法建立更密切的关系，例如通过同学之谊，或是通过大学朋友的引荐，”Accord Ma rine的总经理 Ben Zhang表示， “如果您有幸成为‘圈内人’，做生意就容易多了。” 同样，政府官僚主义在上海同样根深蒂固，比中国的二线或三线城市好不了多少。威尔森船舶服务有限公司（上海）总经理Bi Yuping介绍说， “我们需要与很多不同的政府部门打交道—有的时候，有些政府机构官僚得厉害，很难打交道。当然，前提条件是与国际标准相

激励措施（例如免除公司注册费用和为特定的商业活动提供补助），但公司税的水平与亚洲其他商业中心相比并不具有竞争力。在上海注册的公司要支付的公司税高达其应纳税所得额的25%，相比之下在新加坡，该比例只有17%。由于上海与本地区其他商业中心相比税率过高，也制约了为航运业提供支持的服务业的发展。上海的外资航运律师事务所发现很难吸引到本地的中国合伙人加盟，因为政府对国内

光鲜的外表下所掩盖的根深蒂固的经商规则令人震惊比，例如与新加坡或香港这些地方来比。这些部门仍然需要不断改进。” 此外，尽管上海市政府为某些把办事机构设在浦东指定区域的航运企业提供了不少经济

合伙企业征收的税率比外资合伙企业要高得多。结果，尽管外资律所在国际航运法方面拥有专业技术，却发现扩展业务困难重重，因为他们无法招聘到汉语流利、精通商业管理的本

地合伙人，而这些人最适于开展当地的业务。让在上海设立办事机构的航运企业头疼的另一件事就是人才问题。一家香港干散货航运公司的一位不愿透露姓名的上海员工表示： “在上海，熟悉航运的人才根本不足。而在新加坡这样的地方，要找到这样的人才就容易得多。”因为上海在吸引新公司方面做得不错，对现有人才的争夺愈加激烈，所以公司发现很难留住人才。在普华永道2012年对27个主要金融城市所做的评估报告中，上海在经济实力和城市门户方面名列前五位，不过在在营商容易度方面排名垫底。现在上海正在大张旗鼓地发展航运业，向着国际化的目标进发，不过要想真正能够在国际舞台上与其他经济中心分庭抗礼，上海还需要改变其旧有的一些“老套做法”，投入更多资金发展海事教育。 Sinoship   2013年夏季刊

■ ■ ■ 枢纽：台北

中远在高雄港中国最大国有航运公司投资台湾领先的港口

自由贸易且行且看 Joshua Samuel Brown报道了近期一项旨在提升台湾物流竞争力的举措为提升物流竞争力，台湾近期在全岛大力推行一系列自由贸易区。行政院长江宜桦5月中旬视察了台北港的扩建工程，该港将在7月成为自由贸易区。 “我看到新北市正雄心勃勃的试图将该市下辖的部分地区扩建为自由经济示范区，”江宜桦表示。 “我认为新北市已作好准备。” 按照计划，基隆港、高雄港、台中港和苏澳港不久后也将成为自由贸易区。台湾桃园国际机场也是该项目的试点之一。若其他直辖市符合一定资格，也可申请成为自由经济区（FEZ）。 “ 过去五十年，台湾经历了几轮贸易自由化，推动了经济增长，”台湾经济建设委员会主任委员管中闵称，该机构负责规划和实施自由贸易区计划。 “该项目将利用台湾的人力资源、信息和通信技术、东亚枢纽区位、与中国大陆的特殊经 30

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济纽带等优势，发展具备高附加值的经济活动，”他补充道。 “通过进一步放宽对资本流动、商品、信息和人才的监管，我们将创造顶尖的商业环境，从而促进特殊区域的自由贸易。” 此等便利措施将集中在四个方面— 高附加值农产品加工、战略产业跨境协作、国际医疗和智能物流。政府将为在自由贸易区经营的合格个人和公司提供支持，包括税收优惠和简化移民和土地收购程序。并非每个人都确信该举措对经济发展和本地居民而言属明智之举。 “ 提供税收优惠及为自由经济区引进更廉价的外来劳动力将不会有助于为本地人创造就业机会，促进台湾产业转型或提升工资水平。”国立台湾大学经济学系教授林向恺称， “该项目将在五年内使台湾的工资水平在亚洲主要经济体中垫底。”

林教授认为，首要任务应保持私营体在技术领域的领先地位。

海峡两岸自由贸易协议与此同时，台湾和中国大陆即将根据《海峡两岸经济合作框架协议》（ECFA）签订一项服务贸易协议。行政院大陆委员会主任委员王郁琦说， “该协议将是台湾和

中国大陆根据《海峡两岸经济合作框架协议》和世界贸易组织《服务贸易总协定》所签订的第一份自由贸易协议。该协议的签订具有里程碑的意义，向世界传达了一个重要信息，即台湾承诺继续致力于贸易自由化。这也有助台湾在区域性经济协议中发挥更大的作用，例如泛太平洋战略经济伙伴关系协定与区域全面经济伙伴关系协定。” 该协议签订后，台湾和大陆将分别向对方开放5 5 个和 6 5 个领域，刺激台湾境内投资从而使贸易额增长2.97%或15亿美元。

扩建高雄港台湾港务公司（TIPC）决定在台湾第一大航运枢纽扩建四号集装箱码头，以提升高雄港在激烈市场竞争中的竞争力。此项目预计于 2015 年动工，2018 年竣工。项目总成本为 143 亿新台币，包括政府投资 38 亿新台币和当地私人投资 105 亿新台币。完成扩建后，年集装箱吞吐量预计将增加 611,000 标准箱。台湾港务公司还启动了高雄港洲际货柜中心项目。该项目总投资 900 亿新台币，包括 19 个深水泊位，其中五个码头可停靠 18,000 标准箱的新型大集装箱船。

枢纽：香港 ■ ■ ■

颓势渐显还是自然演变？香港这座曾经举世瞩目的港口爆发了为期四十天之久的罢工并造成了严重后果，Sam Chambers从宏观趋势角度分析认为此次罢工已经酝酿了十余年很少有城市像香港秉承始终如一的发展方向，一代又一代广东人骨子里特有的重商主义精神始终顺应宏观走势。这次香港为期40天的大罢工表明又一个过渡期即将来临。有人称此次工人是为抗议不断变化的世界贸易模式— 该模式可追溯到1992年,以及深圳东部正式启用盐田国际集装箱码头，但此说法存在争议。11年前，中国正式加入世界贸易组织（WTO），此后华南地区作为世界工厂的光环逐渐黯淡，而香港长达百年的东方门户地位也瞬间崩塌。回想2002年时—当时中国刚加入世贸，香港作为世界上备受瞩目且最奢华的港口，正处于黄金时代的顶峰。香港领先的港口运营商和记黄埔港口（HPH）集团董事总经理John Meredith清楚的记得，当时香港因转运货物停靠经济价值不高（将其等同于机场转机休息室）而拒绝转运货物停靠，而这正是竞争对手新加坡货运业的基石，但香港仍然在全球业界排名第一。然而，世事变迁，沧海桑田。 2005年，香港永久性的被新加坡赶下了全球第一大集装箱港的宝座。如今，它与深圳并列第三，该地区许多其他竞争对手正紧随其后。更糟糕的是，转运货物现已成为支撑香港特别行政区的主要业务。如上所述，香港在 2 0 多年前踌躇满志，希望大力发展港口业务，但致使其没落的罪魁祸首正是香港本土的港口运营商— 他们预见到邓小平在对岸开展的经济实验将改变历史

码头工人在长江集团中心前举行抗议示威活动

潮流，而深圳会作为新兴港口迅速崛起。但历史对此或许有不同意见 HPH在香港以外的第一座码头于1992年在盐田启用。在之后20年的码头建设大潮中同样可以看到许多港方码头企业的身影，如现代货箱码头有限公司（Modern Terminals）。深圳是中国改革的摇篮，它的成功源于中国海岸线绵长不断，现在那里的码头起重机比比皆是。同时，由于地方政府和中央

政府未对港口开发给予明确指导，因此香港对其海运发展计划犹豫不决。九号集装箱码头建设工期超时，十号码头的兴建也陷入了冗长的争论之中，横跨珠三角连接澳门和珠海的港珠澳大桥耗时多年才获批，甚至葵青货柜码头入口处新修建的桥梁也因未给可能出现的新一代超大型集装箱船留有足够的水上高度一直饱受诟病。与HPH下属的香港国际货柜码头有关的工人在4月和5月举

行罢工，原因是工作环境过于艰苦，例如据说一些分包商在15 年里只享受过一次加薪。然而，雇主的失职却再次证明港口运营商不再关注香港货运业。的确，中国这些年发展之快难以想象，但不久深圳可能也会受此冷遇。深圳的吞吐量数据（见表格）表明港口业务日渐衰落。港口业务的核心要素是增长— 最好是实现两位数的增长。一旦增长停滞，运营商将把注意力放到下一个大型制造区。或者它们会这样做，直到工人提醒它们还要承担本地的社会发展责任，正如今年香港人举行的声势浩大的罢工抗议活动一样。那么，香港作为航运枢纽的未来将何去何从？不必担忧，这个前英属殖民地将继续作为重要航运中心，香港在未来十年中仍将留在全球前20大港口之列，除此之外则无关紧要，因为这个城市将再次转型。就像很久以前伦敦和奥斯陆不再是世界主要港口，但这并未阻挡它们成为世界上最重要的航运枢纽。

中国港口集装箱吞吐量, 年增长率(%) 港口 1990-1995 1995-2000 2000-2005 2005-2010 (十二五计划) (八五计划) (九五计划) (十五计划) (十一五计划) 2011 2012 沿海港口 33.6 27.8 27.3 13.9 13.1 8.4 上海 27.3 29.7 26.4 10 9.1 2.3 深圳 69.7 32.3 6.8 0.3 2.2 青岛 34.9 28.6 24.4 13.8 8.1 11.2 天津 19.7 9.5 23 16 14 6.5 大连 23.3 22 21.3 14.6 22 26.5 厦门 47.1 28.5 25.2 11.7 10.9 11.4 来源:SISI

Sinoship   2013年夏季刊

■ ■ ■ 书籍

下一代从绝对数量来看，未来20年中国劳动力人口的减少趋势不可避免，预计降幅达18%

人口因素决定未来 Paul French从人口变化情况展望亚洲未来20年发展走势奥古斯特 ● 孔德（Auguste Comte）是法国19世纪的人文哲学家，他开创了社会学这门学科。他还有一句至理名言， “人口因素决定未来”。东亚和东南亚国家目前普遍面临人口老龄化问题，20世纪末那段时间该地区适龄的劳动力人口充足，经济呈现出连续多年强劲增长态势，而如今的形势已经有所变化—目前印度处于人口结构的最佳状态，上海是仅次于日本东京的、人口老龄化第二严重的城市。所有这一切都具有非常深刻的含义。正因为如此，近期出版的大量书籍都纷纷以详尽的笔触，探讨人口结构的变化将会给该地区的经济走向造成怎样的影响。 Clint Laurent博士是Global Demog r aph ic s的创始人兼董事总经理，他在亚洲人口情 32

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况研究上所用的时间和准确性方面都是其他人所无法比拟的。在其新著 To m o r r ow’s World中，他预计人口变化所带来的影响非常深远，将一直持续到2032年。在人口结构方面，中国的形势将日趋严峻—从绝对数量来看，未来20年中国劳动力人口的减少趋势不可避免，预计降幅达18%（今后十年的降幅为6%）。鉴于此，Laurent声称，北京未来10年保持8%的GDP增长率这一目标是基于“对每个工人生产力的大胆假设”。

在人人都能真正找到工作的情况下，印度才能真正从中受益。据Laurent预测，要想达到上述目标，新德里政府在未来 20年内每年必须创造600万个新就业岗位。尽管印度现在拥有庞大的年轻人口，与中国当年情况极其相似，不过印度似乎很难重现中国当年利用人口红利一举成为制造业大国的辉煌。印度目前的人口结构处于最佳状态，不过随着时间的推移这一优势将逐步减弱— 从 2 0 1 2 年以后，也就是从当下开始，一直到2 032年，印度

东亚问题是人口老龄化相比之下，印度达到工作年龄的人口人数众多，在人口红利方面潜力巨大。不过，只有

49%的劳动力人口将加入印度的劳动力大军。正如Laurent指出的那样，印度必须将教育普

及工作做到位，否则其未来的经济和政治形势不容乐观，因为届时人数众多、技能水平低下的劳动适龄人口就业的难度会非常大。东亚问题是人口老龄化。根据Takatoshi Ito和Andrew Rose 的说法，日本、韩国和中国等国都是人口老龄化社会，人口老龄化问题会拖累这些国家的经济，这不仅是因为劳动力人口将日趋减少，并且由于政府开支日益增长，政府财政赤字也将大幅攀升。他们两个人是新近出版的一套论文合集的编辑，该合集是美国国家经济研究局东亚经济研讨会出版物的一部分，名为《人口变化对东亚经济的影响》（The Economic Consequences of Demographic Change in East Asia）。医疗支出、养老金、社会福利、长期护理—所有这些都是系统的额外成本，例如中国这样之前并未为这些方面的支出拨出专项资金的国家。日本的老龄化人口越来越多，世界闻名，不过其就业规定也在不断变化，这意味着每位就业者所负担的人口数在全球仍位于最低行列。未来20年内，日本将有足够的劳动力来供养老龄化的人口— 并取得经济的增长。由于中国长期奉行独生子女的生育政策，在这方面同样拥有较低的比率，不过中国缺乏日本在经济繁荣时期建立起的社会福利安全网。相比之下，虽然中国经济繁荣兴盛，在社会安全网方面却几乎毫无作为。人口学家自然坚称人口因素至关重要。Laurent称： “如果尚未充分了解所有情况，就贸然掌控手下组织未来的发展方向，就如同带着子弹没有上膛的枪支上战场一样。”不过，人口因素所起的作用可能有利也可能有害— 印度有可能创造出足够的就业机会并因此实现经济的繁荣发展，也有可能无法做到这一点并由此陷入经济低迷；中国有可能会加大在社会福利方面的投入，从而成功抵御因人口红利逐步减少而产生的经济不利状况，也有可能未能增大投入而遭受巨大损失。关键在于尽早做出选择，着手推行变革，为经济未来发展做好准备。这两部著作有助于政策制定者实现这些目标。

意见 ■ ■ ■

恐慌的理由？ Andrew Craig Bennett对批准通过的《海事劳工公约》颇有微词我们所在的行业是一个传统行业；自从史前石器时代的穴居人将圆木抛下水开始，人们就一直利用水路运输货物。在我们众多的传统中，其中之一就是应对新的法律法规，例如《海事劳工公约》（Maritime Labour Convention，简称“MLC”）。我们的行事方式是这样的：新公约由国际海事组织（IMO）或国际劳工组织（ILO）的委员会成员起草，该公约则由后者的委员会起草。部分热心的记者急于告诉我们全部情况。我们却置之不理。接下来，新公约的生效日期已经日益临近。我们开始觉醒。我们可能需要了解其中怪异的条款，可能还要参加研讨会。我们认为，这一新公约很可能会引起麻烦，因为它会在各个方面干涉我们的日常工作，例如禁止我们将货舱清洗液倾倒入海中；坚持认为所有船员的能力几乎相同；坚持认为船东应尽力确保以或多或少相同的方式运营货船，并且现在还坚持要求我们善待船员。紧接着会有一段恐慌期，在这段时间内，船东和管理公司会到处找人为他们解决这个问题。在此阶段期间，部分咨询顾问和专家— 甚至有些记者— 将会过于兴高采烈（编者按：肯定不会！），并且还将宣布新公约将会一举纠正所有问题。而其他更聪明的咨询顾问和专家将会为船东和管理公司设计巧妙的方案以遵守新公约，同时以最小的代价对他们的日

中部分内容—就像申诉程序一样—有点不切实际，在发达国家船队上的执行效果应该不错，不过在发展中国家的老旧船只上的执行效果难免会差强人意。工作和休息时间的长短将很快成为船员出海与靠岸之间存在争议的重大问题，因为这对于许多船只来说的确并不适用，例如三天内要停靠三个码头的集装箱船。其中出现摩擦的情况在所难免。MLC在有些方面做得很巧妙—依靠港口国检查执行该公约，因为ILO知道在一些劳动力输出国，说得好听一些，担负检查劳动力代理公司重任的人员很好说话，可以跟他们讨价还价。说得太对了，老兄。能够与之讨价还价的男女船员（谢谢你，Terry Pratchett）几乎来自同样的地方，这可能不只是巧合那么简单。因此，我们得到的只是需要遵循更多的繁文缛节，甚至许多地方的港口国监控（P S C）执行人员乘机中饱私囊，而且这种情况非常普遍。我们真正需要的是减少繁文缛节—无论是重新启用船长文书*，还是自说自话并且在需要时寻找适用内容的文字工作。

公约后的第四大公约。常工作方式作出最小的改变。既然我们现在已经进入恐在这一阶段结束时，新公约开始生效，我们会发现无论怎慌阶段，那就让我们快速浏览 * Furness Withy客船“百慕大女一下MLC公约的内容。该公约要王”号（Queen of Bermuda）是一样生活都得继续。船运法规中的下一项重大法求我们按时支付船员工资；要求艘配备涡轮机电力装置的四螺规即将到，这就是《海事劳工公为他们提供适当的医疗服务并旋桨船，船上配备两个增压锅约》。它可以算是仅次于STCW 与他们签订劳动合同；要求他炉房和一支由80人组成的工程和ISM的第三大海事公约；如果们知道雇主是谁；要求为他们技术队伍，其中包括一名轮机您是油轮从业人员，则它要算提供合理的食宿条件；并要求长和一名轮机长文书。许多人对是排在前两个公约和MARPOL 每次出海的时间长短适中。其此知之甚少。 Sinoship   2013年夏季刊

■ ■ ■ 意见

液化天然气的魔力与祸患中国目前正在采用一种未曾尝试过、也未曾检验过的液化天然气运输方法，这样的作法让Max Hong深感不安

“大鹏昊”号中国国内建造的第一艘液化天然气运输船

这些天来，有些人会在夜间从噩梦中惊醒，浑身大汗淋漓，梦中中国液化天然气航运的发展情况令他们心有余悸。这些极富远见卓识的思想家、天才工程师和爱国项目经理直到六个月前才松了口气，因为他们得知由，他们为运往中国的甲烷气体分子（根据国际法规冷却至零下 163 摄氏度，以液化天然气的形式存在）而设计和建造的码头和运输船在安全性、可靠性和效率方面均达到了世界一流水平。正是因为有了这样的国际法律法规，液化天然气运输才得以在过去 40 年创下最令人印象深刻的全球安全运输无事故的傲人纪录。在国际能源领域，如此辉煌的安全纪录堪称少有。Slim Pickens 曾有一句不朽的名言， “凡是能够做到的事情都不算是吹牛！”，而中国的液化天然气行业肯定已经做到了。直到现在来看，中国成为全球液化天然气精英俱乐部的正式成员，得以与现有经验丰富的专家合作，实现安全性、可靠性，并遵守国际液化天然 34

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气界精心制定和定义的有关液化天然气接货码头、装运和造船的所有规则，整个过程看起来就像童话里灰姑娘般的完美故事。自从首批进口液化天然气货物于 2006 年 5 月运抵位于广东大鹏的中国首个液化天然气码头以来，现在有五个大型液化天然气码头已经投入运行，所有这些码头均按照全球标准运营，并继续保持全球液化天然气行业安全生产零事故的辉煌纪录。中国在纪律、技术能力和长期愿景方面的能力曾一度招致外界质疑，如今它已经成为全球液化天然气俱乐部的最新成员，并证明自己取得了真正的成功。迄今为止，中国的确堪称典范。然而，目前有大量的新液化天然气运输船正在订购和建造当中，它们将用于中国国内贸

易，负责建造这些运输船的造船厂全无液化天然气运输船的造船经验，而且要运营这些运输船的船东在液化天然气方面也毫无经验。这将会有怎样的影响？会带来怎样的风险？全球液化天然气领域安全无事故的辉煌纪录是否会收到影响？影响会很大吗？在这些“门外汉”负责的液化天然气新船建造项目中，头一个要算是中国海洋石油总公司（CNOOC）发起的项目。尽管该公司在购买液化天然气以及建造和运营码头方面具备一定经验，不过目前其希望依靠以下举措将其液化天然气业务继续向前推进：建造辐射式配送系统；从大型国际液化天然气接货码头接收液化天然气，然后通过容量 30,000 立方米的液化天然气运输船将其运送至中国二三线城市中规模较小的

这些小型液化天然气运输船订单背离了国际液化天然气业界合作框架的宗旨

当地液化天然气接货码头。 CNOOC 的液化天然气运输船将使用 C 型独立液货舱（一般用于小型液化天然气运输船，但从未在体积大于 15,000 立方米的船上建造过），而负责建造这些运输船的江南造船之前从未建造过液化天然气运输船，而将负责管理工作的南京石油公司之前也没有液化天然气运输船的管理经验。CNOOC 将内部的液化天然气物流系统运送已经拥有的液化天然气。第二个和第三个合约更是背离了液化天然气注重安全无事故的宗旨。其中一个订单是大连一家石油交易商因泰集团委托大连中远船务工程有限公司建造的一艘 28,000 立方米液化天然气运输船，另一个则是一家浙江船东委托新乐船厂建造的一艘 30,000 立方米设计标准的液化天然气运输船。这两艘小型液化天然气运输船都有相同的缺陷—使用 C 型独立液货舱来建造 30,000 立方米的运输船的设计方案迄今为止未经过任何测试。不仅如此，签约建造船只的造船厂根本没有建造液化天然气运输船的经验，并且负责船舶运营的管理公司也全无液化天然气运输船的管理经验。这些船将长期租给中国能源巨头中国石油天然气集团公司（CNPC）使用。正因为存在这些隐患，外界对此作法感到越来越担忧，显然这些订单已经背离了国际液化天然气界合作框架的宗旨，由于缺乏应有的经验和专家合作伙伴的参与，安全可靠性可能会大打折扣，液化天然气海运运输在过去 40 多年无事故的安全纪录来之不易，如此辉煌很有可能毁于一旦。一旦中国这种新型液化天然气运输模式有闪失，势必会给国际液化天然气供应链造成巨大影响。

意见 ■ ■ ■

在中国商业渠道中乘风破浪 Li Deng Bai关注有多少跨国航运公司在中国开展业务时受到蒙蔽的情况中国在11年前才加入世界贸易组织，当时其经济规模大致与加拿大相当。如今很快到了 2013年，中国已发展成为直追美国，有能力冲击美国头号经济强国的超级大国。由此也产生了一个问题。国际航运业在紧跟中国迅猛的经济增长方面做得怎么样？这是一个很难回答的问题— 有些船东在本世纪初购进了船只，正好赶上了中国经济的繁荣发展期。对他们来说，可以说在中国做生意方面获利颇丰—尽管其中很多船东只不过是中国上行经济趋势的受益人而已，而这种上行经济趋势主要得益于中国对原材料的庞大需求，它们并不一定直接在中国开展业务。显然，对于那些在经济繁荣的年头与中国货主签订租船货运协议的船东来说，就没有那么开心了。对于海峡型船只的船东来说更是如此，因为这些协议往往在他们的货物记录簿中占有相当大的比重。有些船东当时甚至对这些船舶采购、建造和租赁协议充满信心，认为即使是在经济繁荣期的高位签订协议，仍然是有利可图的。然而，过去几年间货运需求直线下滑，这些船东突然发现，他们签订的合同根本不如想象中的那么牢靠。过去三个月来，我曾经遇到过两位资深的海峡型船只租船经理。我从他们那里了解到，他们仍在花大量时间重新洽谈合同— 甚至包括那些在2008年以后的市场中签订的合同。我在观察航运专业人士时注意到一个问题，即他们如何

处理由谁将他们带入中国市场这个问题— 其中还有这件事情的发展速度有多快。当今航运业的很多大佬早年都是在他们那个时代的新兴市场日本崭露头脚的。在相互关联的大工业集团云集的日本，通过聘请大人物或发展与他们的关系，由他们代为处理在日本的业务，不管在过去还是现在都是推进业务发展的好办法。这样的作法以前一贯进展顺利，直到企业想要开拓中国市场，认为可以照搬在日本的经验时才发现并不奏效。其原理如下：找一个神通广大的中国人，予以重金，他自然会帮您把生意搞掂。因此，有些公司就按

陷，即中日之间在管理结构方面存在巨大差异。凡是在日本企业担任高管的人士，之前都在企业的各个部门摸爬滚打过多年，通常都要在运营和商业方面的职位上历练很长时间。而在中国，最高管理层之上还有额外的一层管理人员，通常可称为企业的“党支部”领导班子。您会发现身处这个领导阶层的管理人员在执掌业务发展方向时终日意图模糊不定，他们最为看重的是共产党在最新五年规划内要实现的目标或战略愿景。通常因为他们是最容易为外界看到的人士，因而就会成为外资企

最高管理层之上还有额外的一层管理人员, 被称为”党支部”领导班子照这样的思路开始进军中国市场。这种想法有一个极大的缺

业遇到的“管理人员”，外资企业一般会努力招募这些人

员，试图由其引领自己的企业进入中国市场。结果是，绝大多数外资企业发现，这些新聘任的高管特别擅长用公款为自己打造五星级的奢华生活方式，而对如何确立稳健的业务却一无所知。更有甚者，其中一些这样的政治天才常常鼓励新雇主开展与他们的实际业务模式相去甚远的业务，因为这样做符合他们对中国“战略发展”的感觉。这里有一个典型的例子，说的是一家日本专业航运企业为了发展关系，被说服以极低的价格向一家中国煤炭公司提供一艘运煤船的光船租赁。但是，他们有些失望，因为后来突然发现该艘船归一家中国私营企业所有，而且该煤炭公司在其中持有股权。当然，这家日本企业的中国高管以前是这家煤炭企业最高管理层的成员。不过，目前针对在华的跨国企业所开展的一项简短调查的结果表明，随着时间的推移，外国船东们也基本上学到了很多东西。与之前相比，在华跨国航运企业的管理层的国际化程度更强，而非减弱，而且管理层中此前曾任职中国国有企业的那些大人物的人数似乎越来越少。看起来，在华经营的外资企业在学习和适应中国国情方面的表现和以往一样出色。 Sinoship   2013年夏季刊