SinoShip Spring Issue 2012

Sohmen on China Exclusive ship repair data Shanghai Shipping Exchange Spring 2012

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Launch Issue

SITC’s Yang Xianxiang What’s next for the largest private line in the PRC

Simon Liang: niche shipbuilder Sino-Greek finance

Sinoship SPRING 2012

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ABS ADVERT

CONTENTS ■ ■ ■

■ ■ ■ Regulars

3 Editor’s Comment 4 Economy 7 Lines 8 Yards 11 Offshore 13 Finance 14 Commodities 16 Logistics 17 Cruise ■ ■ ■ Profiles

19 Yang Xianxiang 21 Simon Liang 22 Zhang Ye 23 Dr Helmut Sohmen ■ ■ ■ Features

24 Ship Repair 26 Breakbulk 29 Singapore in China ■ ■ ■ Hubs

32 Shanghai 33 Taipei 35 Hong Kong ■ ■ ■ Reviews

36 Books ■ ■ ■ Opinions

37 Bei Hong 38 Li Deng Bai 39 Manish Singh

A number of non-Chinese owners will be shut out of the game.

— BW Group’s Helmut Sohmen

23

We will make shipping freight derivatives be one of the tools that the shipping industry can use to circumvent freight risks.

22

— Zhang Ye , Shanghai Shipping Exchange

Container shipping is a global business with no shelter.

— SITC’s Yang Xianxiang

19

We are not chasing large scale business blindly.

21

— Simon Liang, Sinopacific

The safety culture has room for improvement in China, but that is coming.

— Rajaish Bajpaee, Bernhard Schulte

25

Shipping doesn’t appear on people’s consciousness.

35

— Arthur Bowring, HKSOA

The happiness from earning a lot of money is fleeting because of the pain you feel when you lose it.

— Evergreen’s Chang Yung-fa

33

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UP FRONT ■ ■ ■

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An ASM publication EDITORIAL DIRECTOR Sam Chambers sam@sinoship.org CHIEF CORRESPONDENT Katherine Si katherine@sinoship.org CORRESPONDENT Jason Jiang jason@sinoship.org BEIJING Li Deng Bai SHANGHAI Paul French HONG KONG Alfred Romann DALIAN Mark Downing TAIPEI Joshua Samuel Brown CONTRIBUTORS Li Dong, Bei Hong, Manish Singh PHOTOGRAPHERS André Eichman, Basil Pao All editorial material should be sent to sam@sinoship.org or mailed to Office 701, 9 Renmin Lu, Zhongshan District, Dalian, China 116001 COMMERCIAL DIRECTOR Grant Rowles grant@sinoship.org CHINA SALES DIRECTOR Tom Wu tom@sinoship.org SinoShip advertising agents are also based in Japan, Korean and Scandinavia — to contact a local agent please email grant@sinoship.org for details.

Media kits are available for download at:

www.sinoship.org All commercial material should be sent to grant@sinoship.org or mailed to Asia Shipping Media, 83 Lorong N Telok Kurau #02-05, Singapore 425 265 DESIGN Lamma Studio Design PRINTERS Allion Printing, Hong Kong SUBSCRIPTIONS

Any shipping-related company headquartered in the People’s Republic of China can receive SinoShip magazine for free. For all other companies a US$100 subscription is charged for 2012’s four issues of SinoShip. Subscriptions to SinoShip e-News, a twice monthly PDF newsletter packed with exclusive news, data and analysis costs US$500.

Email subs@sinoship.org for subscription enquiries.

Copyright © Asia Shipping Media Pte Ltd (ASM), 2012 Although every effort has been made to ensure that the information contained in this review is correct, the publishers accept no liability for any inaccuracies or omissions that may occur. All rights reserved. No part of the publication may be reproduced, stored in retrieval systems or transmitted in any form or by any means without prior written permission of the copyright owner. For reprints of specific articles contact grant@sinoship.org.

Twitter: @sinoship Linked In: SinoShip China Shipping Network

Developing the perfect vehicle for Chinese shipping Every year I would guess I receive at least 20-plus inquiries from shipping companies and PR firms asking me for the leading shipping related newspapers and magazines in China. As East Asia Editor for Lloyd’s List and Seatrade for the past 11 years I have been in a position to furnish people with the information they needed but have always felt there has never been the ideal vehicle for reporting the China shipping scene.

SinoShip has been in incubation for three years now and is now being rolled out this year. We are creating a hub for all things China maritime — whether it be hard copy, online, data or niche events.

Our network of correspondents in Dalian, Beijing, Shanghai, Hong Kong and Taipei is unmatched in the maritime media world and we should have someone in place in Guangzhou by issue two.

SinoShip’s unique business model ensures it’ll be the perfect vehicle for outward-bound promotion by Chinese firms as well as inward bound marketing for international firms. All members of the China Shipowners’ Association and the China National Association of Shipbuilding Industry (CANSI) will receive our dual language publication free of charge. Indeed, any PRC firm will be able to receive this publication free -- and we have databases that are unmatched in the maritime media world when it comes to China. Similarly ordinary members of the Hong Kong Shipowners Association and owners in Taiwan are reading this publication free of charge. Issue one is also distributed at top events in Hong Kong, Shanghai, Nanjing and Singapore.

Overseas firms, sorry, but you have to subscribe, albeit for a small amount.

As well as its breadth — both geographical and sectoral — what sets SinoShip apart from other publications is its widespread points of view. Chinese media tends to

overegg achievements, while international publications looking into China are often too far removed to be perceptive. We aim to straddle our reportage, applauding where it is deserved, while also pointing out weaknesses and pitfalls in China’s challenging maritime university — see our interview with BW’s Helmut Sohmen on page 23 for a good example of a contrary opinion.

All in all, I am very excited about this project and the reaction from key people in the industry thus far has been very encouraging indeed.

I look forward to hearing your comments on our media product and urge you to follow us at LinkedIn (SinoShip China Shipping Network is our group) while our news service — www.sinoshipnews.com — is launching shortly.

Sam Chambers Editor sam@sinoship.org Sinoship SPRING 2012

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■ ■ ■ Economy

Core blimey Products such as Apple continue to report record sales in China — and record queues in Beijing, pictured

In control

Shanghai correspondent Paul French rebuts many of the doomsayers to paint a refreshingly robust report on the state of the Chinese economy The new year began with a staggering number of ‘the end is nigh’ articles on China in the western media. Mostly they all seemed to argue the same thing — the US/EU slowdown will eventually reach China leading to slower growth; urban property markets will collapse; inflation is rampant; there’s too much local government debt; consumer spending will slow.

So perhaps the best way to deal with these issues is one-by-one.

Growth GDP growth will be slower this year at around 8.5%. However, Beijing is comfortable with that.

Those that complain that this is too slow should remember that they were probably the same people shouting ‘overheating’ when growth exceeded 10% per annum. Slower export growth will lead to a modest fiscal stimulus and slower appreciation of the RMB, but not devaluation.

2012 is a year of political change in China — at least among the leadership — and this will mean 4

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no major economic policy shifts during the year.

Property Contrary to many analysts opinions, property is not in such a bad state in China. Importantly, Beijing has many control levers to pull and so will probably ease lending restrictions later this year to re-kick-start the market and avoid any crash. As sales pick up in the second half of the year so too will construction. Property prices may fall over the year — 5–10% probably — but not enough to scare the Chinese away from their love of home ownership.

Money spent leads to money earned Inflation The inflation bogeyman has gone away now the influential and previously troubled pork market has sorted itself out.

Inflation was always mostly a food issue anyway and deflation continued in many non-food sectors throughout the year. It’s expected the CPI will average 3.5–4% for the year, down from over 5% last year.

Debt Without doubt there is local government debt in China.

However, it is underwritten by the central government and the Big 4 state banks (and so ultimately guaranteed by the Communist Party). The bulk of the debt has been accumulated through infrastructure spending that has allowed for greater economic development. This is reflected in lower provincial unemployment rates and higher levels of tax collection — fiscal revenue collected directly by local governments rose strongly last year, up 29% following a 25% increase in 2010. Money spent leads to money earned.

Consumption China remains the world’s best consumer story by a long, long way. Though sales may be slower in year-on-year terms in tier 1 cities like Beijing and Shanghai (still at +16%y-o-y) as they steadily, and predictably, mature they are powering on

in tier 2 and 3. Low household debt (no credit card overhang!), bullish consumers, high employment rates and continuing wage rises should ensure continued good sales though competition between retailers and brands is at an all time high. It’s a broad based consumer story too — shampoo, toothpaste and noodles as well as Apple iPods, Maseratis and plastic surgery.

Emergence of the squeezed middle So are there any problems on the horizon? Well, the truth is that China has moved out of its 30-year-long demographic ‘sweet spot’. Those useful internal migrants who provided cheap factory workforces and service sector workers are no longer so plentiful — the cost of manufacturing as well as the cost of maids, taxi drivers and waitresses will rise. It’s the emerging middle class who’ll feel this rising cost of living most keenly and they may feel less well off than when demographics and urbanisation effectively subsidised their lifestyle.

The emergence of a ‘squeezed middle’ in China, joining those in Europe, America and Japan, may prove to be an interesting phenomenon in 2012.

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LINES ■ ■ ■

Pooling debut Cosco Shipping initiated what it claimed was the first pool model among Chinese shipping companies in mid-February. It signed with Guangzhou Salvage Bureau of the Chinese Ministry of Transport (GSBMT) to manage GSBMT’s 30,000 dwt semi-submersible newbuild, Hua Hai Long.

Cosco Shipping’s semi-sub pool now numbers five vessels.

Han Guo Min, ceo of Cosco Shipping, said: “As the semisubmersible market changes, further cooperation and pooling arrangements will be a general trend.”

China Shipping Development (CSD) will separate its wet and dry bulk divisions to “streamline its internal management system and improve operational efficiency”. CSD owns more than 90 ships. The new dry bulk company will be called China Shipping Bulk Carrier, a wholly owned subsidiary based in Nansha, Guangzhou.

Cosco consolidated its dry bulk division into single ownership after massive losses. CSD has yet to details its plans for the tanker business. Separately China Shipping and Cosco scotched rumours of merging their container divisions together, saying they will have more slot sharing and joint routes but no merger.

Court cases continued to ramp up against Grand China

Logistics. Hyundai Merchant Marine (HMM) of South Korea asked a federal judge in Alabama to freeze the embattled Asian operator’s assets while it sorts out payment disputes before an arbitration panel in London.

While it is believed that more than a dozen creditors are going after Grand China, the lawsuit shed light on six disputes involving Golden Ocean, Tumac, Oldendorff and Norden.

The boss of Grand China’s parent HNA Group has promised to pump more money to its struggling subsidiary.

Taiwan’s U-Ming Marine Transport placed a rare order for capesizes in China in February, signing for four firm 186,300 dwt bulkers at Shanghai Waigaoqiao Shipbuilding plus six on option. Each ship comes in at $49.8m, a significant drop in prices where many believe $55m is the breakeven point for capes.

U-Ming president CK Ong said: “The acceleration in demolition and the slowdown in newbuildings will ease the present oversupply situation in the bulk shipping market. U-Ming regards the gloomy shipping outlook in 2012 as a good opportunity for it to embark

on vessel orders at very competitive prices.”

Hong Kong’s OOCL put pen to paper on the largest port deal in US history. The Tung family-controlled containerline signed a $4.6bn deal for a 40-year lease on 300 acres at the Middle Harbour at the Port of Long Beach.

Riverine bulk operator CSC Phoenix continues to be mired in severe financial woe. Operating losses for 2011 is likely to be RMB880m, a third year of losses.

Moreover, the company’s asset-liability ratio has reached nearly 100%, which has already exceeded the safety margin for bank loans.

With debts from loans and expansion programs growing, “CSC Phoenix might need an approximate cash flow of RMB5bn to 6bn in 2012,” one analyst predicted.

hand prices could still drop by 20%, which will offer good purchase opportunities.

China Merchants Energy Shipping (CMES) is gearing up to order 10 VLCCs, having recently announced a private share placement worth $460m. CMES will tap overseas banks for the remaining cash, the company said. At present CMES’ fleet stands at 4.72m dwt, including 13 VLCCs, a suezmax and seven aframaxes.

The eventual business plan calls for a total of 30 VLCCs.

Hong Kong’s Noble Group appointed Yusuf Alireza as its new ceo, effective from 16 April. Noble’s acting ceo Richard Elman (pictured) will step down on the same date but will continue as chairman.

Alireza is the former co-president of Asia (ex-Japan) for US bank Goldman Sachs.

Richard Elman Energy giant Cnooc is reportedly designing in-house a small LNG carrier. The company wants a series of 30,000 cu m ships by 2014/15 so a tender to build these ships is likely to be floated later this year.

Hong Kong-based KC Maritime, the scion of the Chellaram family, is on the acquisition trail.

Currently it has 11 ships on its books, but the plans are for “many, many more” sources say.

Management believes second

A number of Chinese yards are taking a leaf out of their Turkish counterparts by going into shipowning to keep their drydocks ticking over. Yangzhou-based Sainty Shipbuilding is said to be one of many now looking at deals mainly involving small to medium bulkers. Likewise, Sinopacific Shipbuilding has set up a Hong Kong-based owning company, Crown Ship, to control ships built for its own account.

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■ ■ ■ REGULARS

MUTED CELEBRATION 2011 was the year of the highest deliveries ever, yet also the year with the lowest new orders since 2006

Consolidation era Editor Sam Chambers looks at what China’s bloated shipbuilding industry might look like in three years The problem yards in the People’s Republic faced as Lehman Brothers went below the Plimsoll line in late 2008 was a sudden realisation that there were simply too many yards building very basic ships that were suddenly not in demand.

The vast majority of China’s yards are still focused on bulkers and tankers — basic ship designs — that are no longer in demand. Two thirds of the tonnage delivered by China in 2011 was bulk carriers.

The double whammy for Chinese yards is that with rising fuel prices the Chinese ship designs have been found wanting when it comes to efficiency, one of the supreme demands for hard-pressed shipowners the world over today.

The only ships still popular for newbuild orders are high 8

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spec ships such as LNG and vessels for the still booming offshore sector. This is a corner of the market that the Koreans have firmly carved out for themselves with the Chinese a long way behind, lacking technical innovation at present to close the gap.

Clarkson says this year’s orders around the world will shrink by 9.7%. Contracts for 1,214 vessels were signed last year, down 48% from 2010, according to Clarkson.

The total capacity of vessels ordered in China dropped 58%, Clarkson figures showed.

South Korea was able to wrestle back its shipbuilding crown last year, grabbing nearly half of all orders placed in 2011.

In 2012 the pattern is likely to be similar — offshore and

LNG remaining rare bright spots, good for the Koreans, while others starve.

This urgent need to improve its technological capabilities is not lost on the top executives in China’s shipbuilding sector.

President Tan Zuojun of China State Shipbuilding Corporation, the state run umbrella of government backed shipyards in the south of the nation, gave a frank interview on Chinese TV in February in which he warned the nation’s failure to climb the technology ladder would harm shipbuilding in the future.

He added that about half of all Chinese yards would be weeded out in the coming three-year slump and 2012 would be the biggest year of consolidation.

While there are some 1,526

on the books of the China Association of the National Shipbuilding Industry (CANSI) only approximately 400 of these build ocean-going vessels. According to Shanghai maritime consultant Ben Zhang that figure will be less than 50, with many M&As and others falling by the wayside, by 2015.

Greek ship finance specialist George Xiradakis is even more forthright in his consolidation views suggesting the eventual number of yards will be as few as 30 giant merged entities.

A glance at the top ten global yards list shows the importance of scale, with Koreans accounting for seven of the top spots.

Scale is key in the coming battle for orders.

The consolidation in China is already evident. China’s 10 largest builders accounted

YARDS ■ ■ ■ for 47.7% of all deliveries last year. The aim in the latest five-year plan is to ensure that this figure rises to three quarters, a figure similar to South Korea.

Shipbuilding capacity in the world has more than doubled since 2002, with most of the new capacity added in China.

An era of consolidation is inevitable with smaller yards more vulnerable as they lack technology and funding, analysts concur.

Fully 30% of all Chinese shipyards did not receive a single order in 2011, leading many smaller entities to cease operations, according to CANSI. Hardest hit provinces thus far have been Jiangsu and Zhejiang, both home to more greenfield sites which sprouted up in the boom than anywhere else. CANSI reports that one sixth of its 1,526 membership are currently operating in the red.

As we went to print more than 30 Chinese shipyards have

had to suspend operations as orders have dried up.

Matthew Flynn, managing director of shipbuilding database Worldyards, comments that, “Considering the outlook for credit and freight rates this is not a seller’s market. There are concerns over quality and fuel efficiency of Chinese-built tonnage, thus owners will be scrutinising the Chinese offerings very carefully.”

While the last decade was about getting ships on the water, the emphasis now was to search for solutions to get costs down.

“Cost management will have a much greater urgency than in the last decade,” warns Clarkson’s Dr Martin Stopford.

He notes that world shipbuilding capacity currently stands at around 55m cgt, however, orders placed last year cover barely half that volume.

Yards currently have around two and a quarter years’ worth of work on their books but the question is what will happen when this starts to come down.

Shipyards are often willing to price below total cost if they have a gap in their building programme

“Over the next year gaps will start to open up again in the forward orderbook, and the question of finding new contracts will become increasingly pressing,” says Stopford.

With newbuilding prices having already fallen by 35% over the last two years there is still some margin for them to drop more. To keep the hundreds of drydocks busy in the coming years shipbuilders will have to accept deals at below breakeven prices, as witnessed February 13 this year when Taiwan’s U-Ming Marine Transport placed a rare order for four 186,000 dwt capesizes at Shanghai Waigaoqiao Shipbuilding at a unit cost of $49.3m, some $5.7m below the perceived breakeven price.

“Shipyards can easily squeeze profit margins in difficult times, are often willing to price below total cost if they have a gap in their building programme. Materials account for 60% to 70% of vessel cost and that generally defines the bottom, but with gaps opening up in the work programme, deep discounts may be offered to keep the business moving,” explains Stopford.

Price disparity 2011 orders Nation Size Value Korea 13.55m cgt $48.16bn China 9.2m cgt $19.2bn

Stopford is a firm believer that the current decade is payback time for the excess of the previous ten years, that shipping is likely to be in the doldrums for much of the time through to 2020 based on the phenomenal overcapacity in most sectors of the industry.

“The problem the market faces is the prospects for freight rates over the next decade do not look promising,” Stopford says.

“Take a look at the top Chinese shipbuilders within the world’s, say, top 30 yards,” comments one Shanghaibased shipbroker. “These are the names that will still be around three or four years from now, often taking over neighbouring smaller facilities. The landscape will be very different, less fragmented, and ultimately better for developing more advanced ship designs.”

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OFFSHORE ■ ■ ■

OSV dominance Sam Chambers charts how China quickly came to lead the world in the construction of offshore support vessels In the space of a little over seven years China has come to completely dominate the offshore support vessel (OSV) construction sector. Now, with the sector wrapped up numberswise, China’s yards are busying themselves building ever more complex OSVs. Says Mike Meade, ceo and md of M3 Marine Group, “In the last seven years China has come from nothing to building 70% of the world’s OSVs.” M3 is a leading Singapore-based offshore shipbroker.

Price has been important in this ascent – Chinese yards often being able to undercut European rivals by as much as 50%.

While up until recently Chinese yards have concentrated on basic Asian designs they are now branching out into more high spec European designs.

Ulstein and Wärtsilä are increasingly the two dominant designers for OSVs in China.

“Currently China mainly plays a role as a builder of OSVs, but some leading yards, like Sinopacific Shipbuilding Group, have started to develop their own OSV designs,” says Zhang Guang Hao, business development manager for Offshore China at class society Germanischer Lloyd (GL).

From his office in the Lion Republic, Meade points out that China’s positon in the OSV field is in no small part down to Singapore, with the likes of Jaya Holdings ordering huge numbers of speculative ships in China in the middle of the last decade.

While there has been a sensational amount of ordering for OSVs in the past two years few are worried about overcapacity. Notes M3’s Meade, “On the resale market there is a 20% premium for prompt delivery.”

Figures from Norway’s DNB Bank lend credence to the assumption that overcapacity

On the resale market there is a 20% premium for prompt delivery

Chinese yards can often undercut European rivals by as much as 50% is unlikely for OSVs. Long-term fixtures for platform supply vessels (PSVs) and anchor handling tug supply (AHTS) vessels in the active North Sea went up to 128 and 48 respectively in 2011, up from 114 and 29 the previous year.

In Asia Pacific, fixtures for PSVs and AHTS vessels also rose to 28 and 127 respectively, up from 27 and 107. Globally, the total number of PSVs on long-term fixtures increased to 233 last year from 204 in 2010, and demand for AHTS vessels climbed year-on-year to 328 from 202.

OSV orders continue to

pile in, but that does not mean many larger yards are likely to start building OSVs as orders for other merchant ships have dried up.

“Although the price of OSVs is very high compared with containerships and bulk carriers of the same size, their profit margin for builders is not that high with the cost of machines and equipment taking up most of the price,” points out GL’s Zhang. In addition, the size of OSVs, normally 50m – 80m in length, is small, which makes it less economic for larger shipyards equipped with big docks to build them.

Leading names Zhejiang Shipyard Wuchang Shipyard Mawei Shipbuilding Fujian Southeast Shipyard Guangzhou Hantong Shipbuilding Yuexin Ocean Engineering Sinoship SPRING 2012

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Finance ■ ■ ■

Red knight Expect Chinese ship finance deals to pick up speed this year, writes Sam Chambers, and not just for domestically built vessels

European outlets for ship finance continue to fall by the wayside. In the past few months many blue chip names have announced their intention to either pull out completely or significantly from the shipping scene. Names such as Lloyds in the UK, France’s Société General, and even Germany’s Deutsche Schiffsbank (a bank with shipping in its very name) have cut their commitment to the sector this year.

According to Greece’s Petrofin Bank, approximately 90% of all western ship finance banks are currently reducing their ship finance exposure.

“Consequently, the past three years have represented an enormous opportunity for Chinese banks in particular to build up their Greek ship finance presence, based on previous and new shipbuilding orders at Chinese shipyards,” Petrofin Reseach boss Ted Petropoulos noted in a report.

The global newbuild orderbook which stretches through to 2014 is going to cost up to $500bn, with Greece, home of the world’s largest merchant

fleet, accounting for a fifth of this figure.

Increasingly, shipping is looking east for finance salvation, but just how prepared and adept is China at providing capital to hard pressed, profligate owners?

“To expect China to be the white knight for everything is unrealistic,” says Paul Chang, ICBC’s managing director and head of global shipping.

Greek owners businesses that many enquiries have ground to a halt. Chinese banks’ requirement of credit insurance (with Sinosure) in support of local finance has been deemed unduly expensive. This amounted to approximately 2% of the newbuilding price. Lately this requirement is increasingly being waived, SinoShip understands. Greek owners have been reluctant to accept loans

90% of western banks are reducing their ship finance exposure It is in Greece that Chinese financiers have spent most time.

This was thanks to the October 2010 announcement by Chinese premier, Wen Jiabao, of a $5bn loan pledge to Greek shipping to finance Chinese shipbuildings, a figure which since then has reportedly been doubled.

Up until February this year however results have been slow. Problems have been manifold. The Chinese banks’ due diligence has been so demanding and intrusive into

in RMB and not US dollars. As such, RMB financing requires PRC flags and PRC ship mortgages, exposing owners to greater delays, costs and risks.

February 13 saw a landmark deal that shows signs of progress in Sino-Greek dealings. China Development Bank (CDB) signed an export buyer credit syndicated facility between the bank and Greece’s Dryships. The facility is part of the multi-billion dollar Sino-Greek Shipping

Finance Special Scheme that was announced by the Chinese prime minister 18 months ago. The $122.58m facility will help finance three 206,000 dwt bulkers currently under construction in Shanghai Jiangnan-Changxing.

The lead arranger was CDB and the co-arranger was Bank of China, thus this deal became the first syndicated shipping transaction between two Chinese banks as part of the new Sino-Greek Shipping Finance Special Scheme without the involvement of any Western bank.

George Xiradakis, founder and managing director of XRTC Business Consultants who acted as project advisor, comments, “Chinese banks offer competitive lending products both in loan structure as well as in financial cost. Of course the main problem that exists is the long time response in the new applications but I think that the Chinese banking sector and particularly CDB is taking the appropriate measures to overcome such draw backs.”

“As know-how improves, it is anticipated that the heavy bureaucratic approval process often lasting for six months or more shall become more competitive,” Petrofin’s Petropoulos reported recently.

As we went to press it became clear that buoyed by recent developments at home Chinese banks are now willing to finance ships not built in China, a potentially very big development. Bank of Communications, ICBC, Agricultural Bank of China and Bank of China have all prepared groundwork to start offering finance to owners building in South Korea.

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■ ■ ■ Commodities

CRACKING UP Droughts such as this recent one in Yunnan are now commonplace

Water for dragons Dalian correspondent Mark Downing looks at how China’s dwindling water table is shaping grain imports China’s vice president Xi Jinping’s recent high profile visit to the US was more than just a political gesture introducing the Americans to the Chinese heir apparent, it exemplified China’s exacerbating water scarcity.

The accompanying Chinese trade delegation inked deals worth $6bn to purchase a record setting 12m tonnes of soybeans, exceeding a similar deal last year, so that China now buys a quarter of the US crop.

But what China really wants— and needs in growing desperation—is adequate water and such deals indirectly quench China’s thirst with grain as the proxy.

Since 1,000 tonnes of water are required to produce one tonne of grain, such trade deals are an efficient means to import water whereby China in effect is using grain to balance its water books. With the majority of China’s water consumed by agriculture, relentless droughts, continual pollution 14

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and plummeting water tables will further squeeze agricultural yields. China is being forced to import grain to feed its evergrowing and more prosperous population with a growing appetite for higher protein consumption.

“China’s imports of corn will likely grow like the soybean trade; that’s almost a certainty,” says Tommy Xiao, an analyst at Shanghai JC Intelligence.

China’s corn imports are projected to double this year and ultimately may surge sevenfold to a record 28m tonnes by 20152016 as local yields fail to keep pace with increased demand.

China is also topping up its reserves used to guard against market disruptions, which had been partially depleted last year to combat inflation.

Before these recent deals, the International Grains Council forecasted China’s grain imports to grow 135% between 2009 and 2012 reaching nearly 7m tonnes, while production is estimated

to grow only 11% to nearly 288m tonnes.

Major improvements in cultivation over the last generation have made China both selfsufficient in food production and the largest grain producer in the world. With the exception of soybeans, the Chinese grain market has been relatively insulated from the rest of the world due to a policy of grain self-sufficiency, tight market regulations and stabilising government reserves. However, multiple searing droughts over the past decade — culminating with the worst in 60 years around Beijing and the North China Plain — have scourged crops while water tables

1,000

Tonnes of water needed to produce one tonne of grain

have dropped, forcing central government to reconsider its national security stance on self-sufficiency.

Water usage in China has quintupled since 1949. By 2010, 371bn cu m of water was used for agriculture — 62% of total use. However, China’s freshwater resources per capita are significantly low at just a quarter of the world average or 2,134 cu m with several highly populated regions comparable to the Middle East. By 2030, China’s Ministry of Water Resources forecasts that per capita water resources will decline below the World Bank’s scarcity levels of 1,000 cu m per person. Twothirds of China’s cities face increased scarcity of water with an annual water shortage of 40bn cu m, with northern China reporting some of the highest rates of water loss in the world.

Ground water tables around Beijing have dropped between 100 to 300 m.

Last year, the central government made water policy a top priority in its 12th Five-Year Plan, and in the Zhongyang Yihao Wenjian or ‘Number One Central Document’, a vehicle used for tighter coordination between departments.

By 2020, China will need to increase grain production by 10% more than the 2010 yield, according Beijing’s Institute of Water Resources and Hydropower Research. To achieve such growth China is expected to invest $600bn over the next decade in irrigation and water transport measures.

To sustain China’s role as a leading global export powerhouse, China may fast become not only the world’s largest grain importer but also a major player in international grain markets. The state-owned China National Cereals, Oils and Foodstuffs Corporation (COFCO), the country’s largest trader of grains and edible oils, plans to spend more than $10bn on overseas mergers and acquisitions in the next five years.

■ ■ ■ LOGISTICS

Butchered Correspondent Jason Jiang identifies challenges in China’s cold chain sector China’s food figures make for fat numbers. Domestically, for instance, there are more than 2,500 large meat factories, with a combined output of more than 60m tons a year. Likewise there’s more than 2,000 large frozen food factories with an annual output of more than 10m tons. There’s a similar output of cold beverages made in the People’s Republic, while 8m tons of dairy products are made at home and a huge 44m tons of aquatic products are made in China each year. No wonder, then, as the Chinese have become richer and consumed more — and more diversely — demand for cold chain logistics has expanded at an annual rate of more than 8%.

The shocking statistic, however, is one to kill any appetite.

Official estimates suggest that between 25 and 35% of all meat, vegetable and aquatic products in China, some RMB80bn in value, are damaged during transportation and storage every year.

In recent years, food safety problems have been a hot issue in China. Sinian, a leading Chinese brand for quick-frozen food, recently has been reported by consumers and media for selling bacteria-contaminated quick-frozen dumplings.

Consumers are still reeling from a series of high profile dairy disasters too.

“The cold chain logistics industry in China is still in its infancy. The next 15 years will be a period of rapid development of China’s cold chain industry,” asserts Liu Weizhan, chief secretary of the cold chain branch of the National Logistics Standardised Technology Committee.

The main problems for China’s cold chain industry, Liu suggests, are its low operational 16

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MEATY ISSUE One third of perishables are damaged in transit and storage in China efficiency thanks to a smallscale and non-standard market.

First, there is a serious shortage of cold chain infrastructure, according to Liu. Refrigerated vehicles only account for 0.3% of all freight vehicles. Existing refrigeration and cold storage facilities are generally too old and regional distribution is imbalanced. Secondly, cold

for cold chain are incomplete.

There are still no national standards for equipment, manufacturing, operations and management.

All these hassles aside there are clearly opportunities for overseas firms.

PFS Yida Logistics, a joint venture between the US-based Preferred Freezer Services

The cold chain logistics industry in China is still in its infancy chain technology is archaic compared to overseas. Thirdly, the development of third-party cold chain logistics companies has been too slow. The cold chain logistics system is incomplete. Some big manufacturers have to spend very big to build their own cold chain logistics systems, but obviously smaller companies do not have the capability to do that.

What’s more the standards

(PFS), the largest refrigerated warehouse operator in North America and the third largest in the world, and Dalian’s Yida Group, a conglomerate in the fields of property development, IT consultation and logistics, is venturing into China’s cold storage market. The company started construction of its Cold Chain Distribution Center Project in Tianjin port late last year which will serve northeast

China upon completion in 2013.

PFS opened its first cold storage facility in China in Shanghai Lingang Logistics Park near Yangshan port at the end of 2011, with a capacity of 40,000 tons. Its second facility in Shanghai Waigaoqiao with a storage volume of up to 30,000 tons was set to open as we went to print.

The next step for PFS will be to build a similar sized centre to cater to the Pearl River Delta region.

“We are building out new state of the art cold storages as well as offering a cold chain logistics delivery solution with our JV logistics partner Sinotrans and we will be expanding our business model into other regions in China with a long term goal of being able to provide a national network of cold chain facilities,” says Tim McLellan, PFS’s managing director of international business development.

CRUISE ■ ■ ■

Appetite remains firm despite Costa Concordia disaster A host of larger ships will still call in China this year Fortunately the 22 Chinese passengers onboard the stricken cruise ship Costa Concordia, which capsized off Italy in January, all survived.

Fortuitously for the cruise industry as a whole the repercussions among Chinese consumers from this high profile disaster, as well as the powerless Costa Allegra debacle in the Indian Ocean six weeks later, do not look too damaging. China remains the fastest growing market for the cruise industry with double digit growth in passenger numbers for the past four years.

“We felt there might be a period of non-bookings,” says one travel agent in Dalian, “but we continue to receive a high levels of enquiries.”

Costa Cruises has said that its capacity growth target in Asia would hold steady at 40%, and that all ship deployments to the region would proceed as planned. China accounts for much of Costa’s planned Asian expansion this year.

Costa, the first foreign cruise company to operate in China, is doubling its China fleet, bringing one more ship, the 75,000-ton Costa Victoria to the country, with a number of short voyages of three to seven days, taking passengers to famous tourist destinations in nearby countries such as Japan and South Korea.

Costa has called in PR support in China following the capsizing off Italy which killed

32 people. The company has appointed Hill + Knowlton Strategies in Shanghai to oversee its brand reputation efforts, as it attempts to “harness renewed momentum and move forward” in the country.

To date, more than 170,000 Chinese passengers have travelled on Costa Cruises.

An official from Shanghai International Port (Group), which operates one of the top cruise terminals in the country, tells SinoShip: “34 of our 49 homeport calls this year will be from the Costa Victoria.

The incident in Italy will not affect the fixed schedule of the Victoria in Shanghai. We have yet to see really bad after effects from the Concordia incident from a passenger

booking point of view.”

Meanwhile, Royal Caribbean is introducing its giant Voyager of the Seas into China, servicing 20 itineraries from the country. Another ship, Legend of the Seas, came back to China in March, its fourth visit in as many years. The two ships, departing from Tianjin, Shanghai and Hong Kong, will service about 50 itineraries, the destinations being Asian countries, including Japan, the Republic of Korea and Singapore. It will be the first time Royal Caribbean has operated two ships in China simultaneously.

MSC Cruises, meanwhile, plans to introduce a cruise ship into China by 2014.

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PROFILE ■ ■ ■

The UPS of shipping SinoShip catches up with Yang Xianxiang, the ceo of the mainland’s largest private shipping line

Container shipping is a global business with no shelter

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wenty-one-year-old SITC has a company in mind when it looks to describe its operational model: express giant UPS. Yang Xianxiang, ceo of the fast growing containerline, explains that SITC is trying to position itself as the shipping equivalent of the US brand, combining fast speed, strong, dense networks, high efficiency and custom-tailored services.

The intra-Asia operator reckons it is in a better place to handle the current downturn than many of its peers.

“The outside factors can be summed by a Chinese saying ‘Tian shi, di li, ren he’, which means good timing, geographical convenience and good human relations,” says Yang. “For the tian shi,” he continues, “the general environment in China is strong. China is developing which is good for our business. For di li, comparing with other regions, Asia is the one with the best performance in this industry downturn, and we are based just in this region.

And for ren he, we have many branches

and networks in Asia, our systems and clients are all stable.”

Another factor in SITC’s favour, says Yang, is its focus. Rather than getting distracted with real estate, steel plants and so on, the company’s focus is simply shipping and logistics. On the logistics front, SITC has invested in significant hardware, including logistics parks, warehouses and is able to offer door-todoor services.

Even in the downturn of the past three years the Hong Kong-listed line has been able to grow its container volume and turnover by close to 10% a year.

This year, SITC has 12 newbuildings delivering, and the company is actively watching the prices of newbuilds and secondhand ships at the moment with a few more acquisitions in mind.

The trick for cash-rich SITC is all in the timing. After 2004 it held off ordering any

new ships as prices peaked, not going back to put pen to paper on any newbuild contract until 2010 after it had listed.

“Container shipping is a global business with no shelter,” says Yang, “the market we share is the same, but the differences are each company’s operational ways, management systems, and so on.”

Yang reckons the peak era freight rates are long behind the industry and it will take at least three or four years before the market has a decent supply/demand balance again, “and it could take longer,” he warns.

NEED TO KNOW NEED TO KNOW

SITC Founded in Shandong 21 years ago, SITC is the largest private mainland Chinese shipping line by revenue. The containerline currently operates 53 container ships, of which 30% are owned with an average age of 7 years. Mid-term fleet development plans call for the ownership ratio of the fleet to rise to 50%. SITC listed in Hong Kong in 2010.

Your chance to reach the right audience This magazine is being read by every major shipowner across Greater China.

Features in Issue Two include ship recycling and crewing.

Contact grant@sinoship.org for advertising details Sinoship SPRING 2012

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PROFILE ■ ■ ■

Sinopacific’s alternative path Amid unprecedented consolidation in China’s shipbuilding sector SinoShip gauges the views of the boss of one of the nation’s leading yards

S

imon Liang presides over one of China’s best-regarded shipbuilding enterprises, Sinopacific.

Nevertheless, even he has had pause for thought in this current downturn. The chairman and ceo looks at the hundreds of yards struggling to get orders and admits to SinoShip: “Because of today’s tough market and measly demands, especially with the difficulty of funding and unfavourable policies, resources relocation and mergers are very necessary.”

Famed for his entrepreneurial zeal, Liang, originally from Zhejiang, says “crisis and opportunity exist at the same time” and that is why his company has set up a special team to examine merger opportunities with a number of yards already having approached Sinopacific in the past couple of years.

Sinopacific has been careful to carve its niches, and that is one of the very important things that has separated it from many of its peers.

“As a private shipbuilder, we are not chasing large scale business blindly, we mainly focus on niche markets, areas with high entry levels and technology barriers, to demonstrate our added value,’’ says Liang, 49.

Sinopacific’s large orderbook means

We are not chasing large scale business blindly it is in the rare position of not having to slash its prices to close to breakeven or below prices for the time being. With close to 120 ships on order, worth nearly $4bn, almost all its drydocks are busy through to 2013.

“In 2012, we don’t need to worry about taking new orders as we have a good orderbook already. Nowadays, people who invest are mostly strategic owners. What they care about is merely three aspects: quality, brand and performance, especially operational costs, i.e. fuel consumption. These are exactly where our strengths lie.”

Bulk carriers and offshore support vessels make up the mainstay of Sinopacific’s offerings though the company is developing its own tanker design.

Going forward the plan is to continue to develop software, up marketing and spend more on research and development — all things that genuinely makes Sinopacific a stand out in China. Nearly 90% of Sinopacific’s delivered products are developed in house via its R&D team in Shanghai.

This February saw the first sea trial of another exciting design by the yard, the Crown 63. DY4001, the first Crown 63, a 63,500 dwt bulk carrier, completed all sea trials successfully on February 18. The ship is one of 22 of this type set for delivery this year and, stacked with plenty of green technology giving it a 13% fuel saving, it has received classification society Bureau Veritas’s first Energy Efficiency Design Index (EEDI) certificate in Asia.

Some of these new ships will end up being owned by Sinopacific’s Hong Kong subsidiary, Crown Ship, a shipowning/ trading vehicle.

“The position of Crown Ship is not to be an owner,” stresses Liang.

The vehicle will be used to better understand the needs of owners, says Liang, as well as providing alternative financial solutions to clients.

Crown Ship can provide some additional pre-delivery funding which will allow owners to make a payment of less than 30% before delivery. Secondly, newbuildings can be directly owned by Crown Ship and owners will be given the opportunity to buy the ships on a resale basis. Thirdly, Crown Ship can arrange post delivery loans for newbuildings and bareboat charter out the vessels to the buyer upon delivery on a medium to long-term basis, with an obligation to purchase the vessels when the contract expires.

It’s a pioneering concept, much in the spirit of the thinking-outside-the-box Liang, a man whose education included three years at the prestigious Sorbonne in Paris.

NEED TO KNOW NEED TO KNOW

Sinopacific The Sinopacific Shipbuilding Group was founded by Simon Liang in 2003. It is a diversified corporation engaged in shipbuilding, trading and design. The group has two shipyards — Zhejiang Shipbuilding and Yangzhou Dayang Shipbuilding — with a total orderbook of nearly 120 ships worth close to $4bn. Focus is on bulkers and OSVs. Sinopacific is now getting into vessel ownership via a Hong Kong subsidiary.

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■ ■ ■ Profile

Master of the markets Chief correspondent Katherine Si catches up with Zhang Ye, president of the fast evolving Shanghai Shipping Exchange

L

ike a snowball, as the Shanghai Shipping Exchange (SSE) celebrates its 15th year, its range of offerings to the world gets ever larger.

Indeed, the last 12 months has seen the SSE roll out more services than ever before and it has become a true reference tool for international shipping, its container index, for instance, becoming a bellwether, routinely mentioned by the likes of Bloomberg.

SSE’s swift transformation has been in step with central government’s announcement four years ago to make Shanghai an international finance and maritime hub by 2020.

SSE’s role, according to its president Zhang Ye, is to act as a go between information provider between the Chinese government and the market. Specifically SSE’s three objectives are to standardise transactions, help adjust freight rates and to communicate information on the shipping market.

As well as its liner index, a domestic coal index, a domestic bulk index, two derivatives platforms, and plans afoot to launch this year international dry bulk and oil tanker indices, what’s next for this rapidly evolving information tool?

“Shanghai Shipping Exchange will keep being steady and creative,” says Zhang.

“We will further develop our Shanghai international shipping information centre, while perfecting our container, dry bulk, oil tanker, ship pricing and other shipping index series to make ship trading, freight transactions and human resources exchange hit a certain scale.”

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Freight derivatives can be one of the tools that the shipping industry can use to circumvent freight risks The launch on June 28 last year of a derivatives platform tied to container shipping indices, tracking spot rates on 15 routes including Europe, the Mediterranean and the US was a big step forward for SSE. 400,000 lots were transacted in the first month alone and millions subsequently.

While many in the liner industry have their reservations about derivatives — “shipping is enough of a casino already, thank you very much” — the SSE is adamant there’s a very strong future for derivatives. To begin with the SSE expects the platform to be dominated by small to medium enterprises. Smaller liners need a risk management tool because they are weaker in terms of pricing ability.

The argument SSE puts forward for derivatives is that they’re better than conventional hedging tools. Only when the market has significant liquidity can it attract larger companies, says the SSE. It’s still early days for derivatives, stresses Zhang. “Currently, shipping freight derivatives are still at a market cultivation stage,” he says, “we need to engage the market more widely. In the future, we will make shipping freight derivatives be one of the tools that the shipping industry can use to circumvent freight risks.”

As well as liner market tools SSE has also launched derivatives for 40,000 to 50,000 dwt bulkers on routes going from Qinhuangdao to Shanghai and Guangzhou.

The new derivative is settled in yuan in accordance with a freight-rate index run by the exchange. The derivatives are sold in lots, one of which is equal to 100 tons of cargo. The exchange requires 20% of margin from each trader.

Coal freight rates on the two routes tend to fluctuate widely. Every year, more than 400m tons of thermal coal is shipped on the two routes at rates varying from 20 yuan to 160 yuan a ton, according to the exchange.

If the new derivative proves popular, Zhang says the exchange will consider introducing similar products for more routes and more goods.

SSE now has 80 employees at its headquarters on the Huangpu river, and another 300 at its various subsidiaries. The 200-plus membership of China’s de facto answer to London’s Baltic Exchange includes container lines, agents, shippers, freight forwarders, banks and brokers.

How then does Zhang see the exchange a decade from now? “In the next ten years,” he says, “following the general planning of the Shanghai international shipping hub and finance hub, Shanghai Shipping Exchange will simultaneously develop with Shanghai, continue to be based in Shanghai, coving the whole country and be involved in covering world shipping.”

The blizzard of data, the snowball, will continue to gather in pace and size in other words.

NEED TO KNOW

NEED TO KNOW SSE Founded 15 years ago, it currently has two derivatives platforms, five indices, a news centre, and plans to launch two more international dry bulk and tanker indices later this year. Headed by Zhang Ye.

PROFILE ■ ■ ■

Sohmen on China ‘A number of non-Chinese owners will be shut out of the game,’ warns the boss of BW Group

F

or all the bullishness shipping executives have extolled on prospects regarding China over the past decade, the odd dissenting voice is valuable in today’s hardpressed environment. While many still believe China can dig the shipping industry out of its current malaise the advice in Hong Kong from one of the world’s largest and most respected shipowners is very much not to put all your eggs in the basket of China.

Dr Helmut Sohmen, chairman of BW Group, and his right hand man over the past 30 years, Stephen Pan, chairman of World-Wide Shipping Agencies, warn SinoShip readers that opportunities for foreign owners in China going forward are likely to be fewer and fewer as China, Inc takes greater control of its supply chain.

“A number of non-Chinese owners will be shut out of the game,” says Sohmen, 72, adding: “This will remove opportunities.”

Sohmen explains that with the rapid growth of Chinese shipbuilders excess vessel capacity was inevitable at which point state-owned lines went to Beijing to ask for protection, which they duly received.

“The more they build, the more GDP grows,” says Sohmen, “GDP growth always comes first.

“Niche opportunities will increasingly disappear as the Chinese learn to do things themselves.”

Pan tells SinoShip that the world puts too much emphasis on China helping out the health of the global economy.

Quite so, says Sohmen, pointing out from a shipping perspective that demand growth out of China won’t “go away” but “you shouldn’t rely solely on China”. He notes how even volumes of oil imports into China are slowing at the moment.

Pan observes that even the incredible march of Chinese shipping lines has slowed of late.

“Look at the expansion of state-owned or quasi-state-owned shipowners, it’s been phenomenal, but it is now slowing,” says Pan, who goes on to look at Grand China Logistics, which started out with suitably grand ambitions of operating 100 ships by 2014, but is now struggling to pay its charter bills.

“The Chinese won’t help the oversupply situation,” says Sohmen, an Austrian national, who started working for WorldWide Shipping in 1970, became chairman in 1986 and was the man behind the audacious takeover of Norway’s Bergesen in 2003.

Another area, which many have touted as a slice of salvation for the industry, is in China offshore. Here, once again, Sohmen is on hand to pierce that bubble of optimism.

“So far [the Chinese] have been spectacularly unsuccessful in offshore, so the expectations for offshore are limited. I wouldn’t hold my breath for China offshore,” Sohmen says. BW currently has 16 offshore facilities, primarily FPSOs. So then, pessimism aside, what are the opportunities in China? LNG is one area that excites Sohmen. “We would

like to get involved, although we could not before 2015,” he says, adding that LNG import bases will increase across China.

State authorities announced earlier this year that LNG imports increased 45% last year and are set to grow by a similar number in 2012.

Another sector to keep an eye on in the future is China’s build up of oil refineries, which could see product exports take off.

For Pan, there’s plenty of upside for China coal imports and subsequently all the constituent infrastructure build-up necessary to accommodate more and more coal, such as more terminals.

NEED TO KNOW NEED TO KNOW

BW Operates a fleet of 116 owned, partowned or controlled vessels including tankers, LNG and LPG carriers, and FPSOs. World-Wide, founded in 1955 in Hong Kong by Sir Y.K. Pao, became the world’s largest shipowner by 1979.

Helmut Sohmen, 72, became chairman in 1986 and took over Norway’s Bergesen in 2003 and rebranded firm as BW. Heir apparent: Andreas Sohmen-Pao.

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■ ■ ■ FEATURE

Paint it

red

Katherine Si provides an exclusive snapshot of China’s vast repair network and argues the sector is now set to suffer from overcapacity

C

hina’s ship repair is bloated, chronically so, according to sources within the industry and the very real spectre of additional capacity coming from shuttered newbuild yards has many on edge.

Overcapacity and weaker demand resulted in a drop in volumes and values of repair jobs last year in China.

Li Zhengjian, deputy general manager of China Shipping Industry Co (CIC), the largest group in the repair business in China, reckons there are 10m dwt of repair yard capacity of facilities with docks of 50,000 dwt and higher.

Not only are there too many yards in terms of numbers, they’re also all getting too big. Currently, there are 17 ship repair docks of 300,000t dwt class or above in China, including six still being built; 21 docks are between 100,000 and 300,000 dwt class and 26 docks are under 100,000 dwt in size. 60% of the ship repair docks under construction at the moment are for giant docks of over 300,000 dwt capacity.

2011 saw a slew of very large repair docks enter service such as a 300,000 dwt dry dock in Shanghai, a 180,000 dwt dock in Fujian, two docks of 140,000 dwt and 230,000 dwt at Shanghaiguan Shipbuilding Heavy Industry and two giant docks — 300,000 dwt and 400,000 dwt — in Dalian.

What’s more there are another 10 ship repair facilities still under construction, principally in the Bohai Bay area and Fujian province.

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Li thinks the total dock capacity is too much, but the distribution and dock size are imbalanced throughout the nation — capacity in the Pearl River Delta is comparatively weak, for instance.

An official from the ship repair branch of the China Association of National Shipbuilding Industry (CANSI) agrees there’s too much capacity at present, telling SinoShip: “It is a true that there are many new facilities for ship repair under construction including many large sized docks and cranes. We think the overcapacity in

the ship repair industry does exist. The main reason is not because of a small amount of ship repair orders, but because of too many facilities.”

CANSI reports that prices for repair have been low throughout 2011 and continued to drop in the first months of 2012. “Some yards are taking non-profitable jobs just to keep going, while a few have had to close,” says the CANSI official.

SinoShip polled a number of yards and the average drop in revenues last year was in the region of 15% while profits slumped

Shiprepair ■ ■ ■

BRIEFING BAR Shipmanagers’ viewpoint Vijay Rangroo, boss of MTM Shipmanagement in Singapore, has some simple advice for those mulling repair work in China. “The trick is,” he confides, “to build a relationship with one yard such as Cosco or Chengxi and then stick with them.” While steel works and paint jobs are viewed by Rangroo as fine in China, more fine tuning work such as calibration or reconditioning can be problematic. On the issue of pricing, China is unbeatable, he says, while cautioning that safety is still “an issue”.

Yes, it certainly is, concurs Rajaish Bajapee, the Hong Kong-based ceo of Bernhard Schulte. “There’s no one size fits all solution to safety,” he says. “The safety culture has room for improvement in China, but that is coming.”

China Shipping Industry Co (CIC) For the third straight year the subsidiary of China Shipping Group came out as the largest repair group in China in 2011 by vessels completed, ahead of Cosco Shipyard. CIC completed 746 ships last year, up 12% year-on-year and accounting for 22% of all repair jobs done by China’s 15 main repair conglomerates. Established in 1998, the group owns and manages six ship repair yards across the nation.

Yiu Lian becomes number one

OVERSTRETCHED There is 10m dwt of repair capacity at yards with docks of 50,000 dwt and above across China around 45% on average.

Nevertheless, unlike in shipbuilding, CANSI is not predicting a period of mergers for the repair industry.

Some repair yards continue to make the switch to shipbuilding and analysts expect this to be happening in reverse much more later this year. Huarun Dadong Dockyard, arguably China’s most skilled conversion specialist, now located on Chongming Island in the Yangtze River Delta, has just embarked on building a series of 8,800 teu containerships. The yard added a 380 m

long graving dock last year and a series of steel and coatings workshops plus an 800ton gantry crane.

With some 30 shipbuilding yards having shuttered operations in the past 12 months a real concern is a flooding of additional capacity as shipbuilders become repairers, pushing prices lower. Seasoned shipping engineers warn against mixing these professions however. “Skill sets and infrastructure required for repairing and building ships are totally different and should not be mixed,” warns one engineer in Singapore.

Yiu Lian Dockyards (Shekou) was ranked No.1 on 2011 annual turnover for the first time among the main ship repair yards in China. With a total RMB1.85bn annual turnover in 2011, up 16% yearon-year Yiu Lian, located in south China, completed a total of 223 vessel projects — both repairs and conversion — including three conversion projects of VLCC to VLOC, one conversion project of offshore cargo and launching barge, one comprehensive repairing of an FPSO, and the serious repairs for eight mega container carriers of Maersk Line.

“Although we made a good performance last year, the profit situation is just passable,” a spokesperson tells SinoShip. “Ship repair prices are not very pleasant at the moment and have slid down since the start of this year.”

Yiu Lian has no plans to expand this year, and was able to be fully booked throughout the first quarter of 2012.

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■ ■ ■ FEATURE

WIND CHANGE China is on course to export more than 1,000 wind turbines this year

Fast-spinning industry Jason Jiang reports from the recent Breakbulk China event in Shanghai

B

reakbulk volumes in China continue to lure operators from across the world, but the intricacies involved in conducting business here are still a minefield that takes much time and patience to understand. Those attending the UBM-organised Breakbulk China event in Shanghai at the end of February were given clear pictures of the upsides and downsides of operating in this vast nation.

Port throughput in China reached 7.2bn tons last year led by mighty Shanghai which notched up 620m tons on its own.

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In Shanghai breakbulk volumes have leapt from 26m tons in 2006 to 48m last year. While this astonishing growth is unlikely to be matched again, port authorities in Shanghai anticipate an annual growth rate for breakbulk volumes of around 10% in the coming five years.

What delegates were told however is that Shanghai’s breakbulk docks are now groaning under the pressure, and this comes despite expansion carried out recently. “Breakbulk docks have nearly reached saturation,” warned Li Yiping, the deputy general manager of Sino-Polish jv,

Chipolbrok. However, good news is that warehouses are being expanded while the port’s computer management system for breakbulk cargo is being enhanced which will help the growing throughput numbers.

“I think to cope with the increasing cargo volume in the future, infrastructure is very necessary,” agreed Wolfgang Harms, senior representative, China, for Rickmers Linie. The Hamburg-based operator announced at the show the expansion of its market coverage in China adding additional liaison offices in Changsha, Chongqing and Chengdu,

Breakbulk ■ ■ ■

NEED TO KNOW Chipolbrok NEED TO KNOW Chipolbrok, a 50:50 joint venture between China and Poland, only recently received its last heavy lift vessel from a series of six 30,000 dwt ships ordered from Cosco Dalian Shipyard, and yet it is already gearing up for another big order.

Chipolbrok can lay claim to being the first foreign-invested joint venture registered in China after 1949, dually headquartered in Gdansk and Shanghai. Its heavylift fleet now totals more than 20 ships giving the 61-year-old joint venture more than 500,000 dwt in capacity. A further eight heavylift newbuildings will be ordered shortly.

Currently, the bulk of Chinese production of wind turbine units goes to the domestic market, but exports are expected to account for 30% of volume by 2015.

In 2011, China exported 361 wind turbine units to the European Union, 300 to India, 71 to the USA, 70 to Australia, and 29 to South America.

Sourcing in China

while strengthening its presence in Guangdong.

“Moving closer to the major industrial production facilities and engineering, procurement and construction companies will enhance the company’s ability to offer its clients tailor made, innovative and efficient transportation solutions from the factory up to the construction site,” Harms said.

opportunities for international firms, Goh said, but how long that window will remain open is hard to predict given how fast and “aggressively” Chinese logistics companies were evolving to meet every supply chain demand.

“China’s breakbulk market is evolving very quickly, and in the right direction,” said Goh. “A lot of care, control and courage will be required to succeed.”

Price sensitive

Power of wind

China does remain a tough market, speakers and delegates concurred, in terms of making a decent bottom line. Chinese shippers continue to be “rather price driven” said Mui-Fong Goh from US management consulting firm A T Kearney.

However, Goh noted a greater willingness by shippers to appoint logistics partners to provide value-added services. Herein, lie

In terms of specific cargoes that generate increasing amounts of business out of China, wind turbines received much attention at the event. A T Kearney’s Goh said that since 2010 China has led the world in terms of installed wind power capacity, with Beijing’s promising to spend RMB500bn in the wind-power industry through to 2020.

As the sophistication levels of product, components, equipment and machinery from China continue to make generational advances by piggybacking jvs with US, EU and Japanese technol ogy leaders, it has become increasingly important for foreign logistics providers to be able to locate quality agents and suppliers within China.

“China has opened up a lot of opportunities in the last ten years or so, and naturally presented potential competitive advantages for those foreign companies looking to enter and looking to source or manufacture products and services here, but once in, it is important to remain competitive, we must be willing to adapt and upgrade our souring strategies,” said Brain Posey, head of Panprojects China.

“When looking for a partner, you need to do your due diligence, find out your partner’s motivation of signing the contract and operational capabilities and make sure these meet your requirements,” said Clement Tan, general manager at CEVA Logistics.

The age old issue of foreigners not being allowed to tranship cargoes was discussed with Chipolbrok’s Li suggesting that with Beijing’s determination to develop the western regions this ruling should be overturned soon.

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*** ADVERT

Singapore in China ■ ■ ■

Owners in the Lion Republic

INTERNATIONAL DEBUT PSA’s first overseas investment was in Dalian in 1996

Shipping partners Editor Sam Chambers heads to the Lion Republic to see how strong ties are with the PRC

C

hina continues to be a vital economic partner with Singapore.

Bilateral trade between these two republics rose by 6.4% year-onyear to $80.5bn in 2011. The People’s Republic is currently Singapore’s second largest trading partner, and top investment destination.

Both the China-Singapore Free Trade Agreement and the ASEAN-China Free Trade Agreement continue to spur even stronger economic cooperation.

In shipping, the nations are close, holding regular dialogue and big firms on both sides invest heavily in each other’s backyards.

Last October, for instance, Singapore and China signed a Memorandum of Understanding (MOU) on Maritime, Shipping and Port Cooperation.

The new MOU, which supersedes an earlier one signed in 2004, not only 90 80 Bilateral trade ($bn)

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“underscores the strong bilateral ties that China and Singapore have built up over the years but is also testament to the enhanced maritime relations that both countries share’”, Singapore’s Ministry of Transport said in a statement.

“The MOU would provide for an expanded scope of cooperation between the two countries, including shipping policy, maritime safety and security, as well as maritime research, development, education and training,” it added.

Transport Minister Lui Tuck Yew, who signed the MOU with China’s Minister of Transport Li Shenglin, said it would enable the two countries to “jointly address the new challenges ahead in the maritime and shipping arena, building on our many common interests in the maritime sector”.

In terms of substantial investments overseas few can beat port operator PSA International’s commitment to China coverage. PSA’s first ever overseas investment was in China, back in 1996 in the northeastern city of Dalian. Since then it has added terminal coverage in China in Tianjin, Fuzhou, Guangzhou, Dongguan and Hong Kong.

“Despite a possible slowdown in the growth of its economy in the near term, China remains an important market for PSA,” Ong Kim Pong, regional ceo for northeast Asia, tells SinoShip. “We invest in China ports for their great potential and bright prospects.”

Fellow Singaporean port operator Jurong Port also made its first investment overseas in China, just last year in Rizhao.

Many owners from Greater China have flocked to Singapore thanks to the incredible incentives on offer. Among the most noteworthy is Cosco Corporation.

The subsidiary of China’s largest shipping concern has one of the largest ship repair, shipbuilding and offshore marine engineering operations in China. It also has dry bulk and ship agency business under its remit and is listed in Singapore.

Another name that has both caused worry and ecstasy for Singapore authorities over the years is Taiwan’s Evergreen. It caused consternation back in 2002 when it pulled out of Singapore to call at nearby rival Port of Tanjung Pelepas (PTP) in Malaysia. However, three years ago the line’s founder Chang Yung-fa made a big return to Singapore, shifting a large swathe of ships from the Panamanian flag to the Singapore flag under a new Singapore subsidiary taking advantage of the country’s Approved International Shipping Enterprise (AIS) scheme which provides 10 years renewable tax exemption for qualified international shipping companies. A total of 50 ships are scheduled to fly the Singapore flag soon.

Evergreen is so firmly back in the good books of Singapore, Inc that its deputy managing director of its local agency business, Patrick Phoon was recently anointed president of the influential Singapore Shipping Association (SSA).

“In view of the more challenging times ahead,” Phoon said in one of his first engagements since taking on the SSA role in January, “I certainly hope that the Singapore government… will lend a helping hand by offering tax cuts and reducing the cost of doing shipping business in Singapore.”

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■ ■ ■ FEATURE

In place SinoShip profiles three of the leading Singaporean lines’ activities across China

B

orn on Kinmen Island, opposite Xiamen, Teo Woon Tiong set up Pacific International Lines (PIL) back in 1967. He was one of very few people in Singapore at the time who was able — and successful — at conducting business in the People’s Republic, launching a pioneering service from China to the Middle East. Fast forward 45 years, and under the capable stewardship of his son, SS Teo, China continues to be very much central to PIL’s fortunes.

As one of the top 20 containership operators in the world, PIL has set up more than 10 branch offices and over 15 representative offices in China with most of its ships built these days in China. It has also diversified into container manufacturing with nine factories operating in China, making subsidiary Singamas the second largest container manufacturer in the world. In the logistics arena, PIL has established in China over 10 joint ventures engaging in logistics related activities such as supply chain management, consolidation/distribution facilities, warehousing, container depot operations and trucking.

Most recently PIL has been linked with a ship recycling/repair yard in northeast China. Dalian Shipbuilding Industry Co (DSIC) will start trial operations of its new shipyard on Changxing Island in Dalian in April this year. The yard will be one of the largest recycling and repair facilities in the

Few non-Chinese firms can boast such a broad set of investments as IMC 30

www.Sinoship.org

BIG DELIVERY APL’s first ever 10,000 teu ship, delivered in December, was named APL Chongqing, after the city where it has its largest overseas office world, with the breakdown of ownership reported as 67% for DSIC, 15% to Anshan Steel and 18% for PIL. Another Singaporean shipping firm heavily invested in China is Neptune Orient Lines via its subsidiaries APL and APL Logistics. Indeed, APL can chart its first China calls all the way back to 1867.

Last June was a significant moment for NOL in China with the opening of its first joint venture Chinese container terminal.

NOL, together with SITC, joined with Qingdao Qianwan United Container Terminal Co, to operate the 1.5m teucapacity site in Qingdao. The container terminal is equipped with seven postpanamax cranes as well as 16 rail-mounted yard gantry cranes.

Right across the globe ocean carrier APL has more than 200 offices, but its largest one outside of hq Singapore is in a place some 1,500 km from the sea. In September 2010 NOL opened its largest overseas office in Chonqing, the world’s largest municipality. The Global Service Center opening was attended by Singaporean prime minister Lee Hsien Loong and Chongqing mayor Huang Qifan. With more than 600 staff, the centre carries out the back office

functions for the shipping line and logistics subsidiary.

NOL has 46 offices and more than 1,800 employees throughout China with a regional headquarters in Shanghai.

From Dalian to Hong Kong Ship chandler Sinwa has a unique position in China. With seven offices in the PRC, the company can claim to be the only Singaporean ship supplier with its own offices in the world’s most populous nation. What’s more the company will shortly add to its network as it is looking for a building in Shanghai to store provisions while big name clients have asked Sinwa to establish two more bases in large growing Chinese ports.

From its eight strategic locations, Sinwa can make deliveries to more than 80 ports and shipyard facilities across China.

Mike Sim, executive chairman and ceo, says, “When the market opens up in China we want to be there and show what a strong network we have.”

In addition to serving Singapore and China, Sinwa also has plenty of business out of Australia.

Singapore in China ■ ■ ■

“Chinese companies and banks have recently set up leasing companies. The companies are currently focusing on the domestic business and as such are pretty occupied with that. Going forward as they look to deploy further capital, they would likely think about other options in the global shipping field. Chinese companies have traditionally found Singapore and Hong Kong as the destination for their overseas hubs and listing venues. As said, Singapore will continue to find favour with Chinese companies. As such, shipping trusts could then become an avenue for the Chinese to consider. We know from speaking to some Chinese companies and investors that they are considering shipping trusts and will likely continue to do so.”

— Philip Clausius, ceo, First Ship Lease Trust

Shanghai acts as the hq for North Asia, and was where current APL president Kenneth Glenn was based prior to taking the top job back in Singapore last year.

Arguably the Singapore line with the most diversified assets in China is the IMC Group. Founder Frank Tsao was born in Shanghai and it is in China that the group has made its largest investments in the past decade whether it be in property or shipping and shipyards.

Zhoushan IMC–Yongyue Shipyard and Engineering Co is one of China’s top repair sites with two graving docks of 300,000 dwt and 100,000 dwt. Further yards in Zhoushan and Dalian are also part of the IMC network.

CSIC-IMC Shipping (Shanghai) Co, meanwhile, is a joint-venture between China Shipbuilding Industry Corporation (CSIC) and IMC focusing on domestic chemical shipping.

IMC has port investments in Dalian and Lianyungang, while its jv with Cosco in Qingdao known as GACOSCO is one of the largest freight forwarders in Shandong province. It is also in Qingdao that IMC’s shipmanagement division MSI has a strong presence. Few non-Chinese firms can boast such a broad set of investments as IMC.

DRAGON’S DEN Keppel opened its Nantong yard in 2007

Future planning

Singapore’s yards have built their own facilities in China

S

ingapore’s shipyards have prepared for the future by investing overseas, not least in China.

Sembawang Shipyard got the ball rolling in 1995 when it signed with China National Offshore Oil Corporation to take a 50% stake in a repair facility in Tianjin. Bohai Sembawang Shipyard opened in 1996 with two docks of 85,000 dwt capacity. It disposed its stake in the venture in 2003, but quickly latched onto another Chinese repair giant, Cosco Shipyard, in which it bought a 30% stake in 2004.

Keppel Offshore & Marine, meanwhile, opened its wholly-owned subsidiary, Keppel Nantong Shipyard in Jiangsu province in 2007.

Offshore support vessels and tugboats

are the main offerings at the yard, which has a capacity to build up to 25 such vessels on its 16-hectare site. Significant recent orders include a $116m contract last September to build a heavylift sheerleg crane vessel for Asian Lift. Scheduled to be completed in the third quarter 2013, the 5,000-tonne floating crane will be the largest and most versatile heavy lift sheerleg crane vessel of its kind in the world.

Finally there is ASL Marine, which has three yards in Asia — in Singapore, Indonesia and China. Its Chinese facility in Guangdong province has recently been expanded and last year bagged an order for nine anchor handling towing/ supply vessels.

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■ ■ ■ HUBS: SHANGHAI

Shanghai Port Version 4.0 A new port masterplan is in the offing. SinoShip speculates over what it might involve Waigaoqiao Yangshan Wusongkou

Percentage share of teu

80 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 0 2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

Source: Colliers International

CONSTANT CHANGE Shanghai’s alluring skyline The other day a leading international shipping parts supplier contacted SinoShip seeking advice as where best to locate its planned storage facility in China’s sprawling financial metropolis. This is no simple task. For all those who thought that perhaps 2010’s sensational World Expo marked Shanghai as a completed city, think again. The chameleon that is Shanghai continues to change its spots, cranes soar, and even long-term residents can suffer a unique form of Chinese municipal Alzheimer’s. No, you don’t wake up every day looking for your wallet, but almost as disconcerting you spend much time double checking if you are indeed on the right street as countless changes prove hard to compute.

Sources high up with in the city’s port administration confide a new port masterplan will shortly be unveiled though they remain tight-lipped on specifics.

SinoShip knows the port well enough to make some obvious assumptions on what might happen under Shanghai Port Version 4.0, as we might call it.

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First, let’s look at the numbers. Last year saw Shanghai become the first place in the world to handle more than 30m teu in a year. The port posted a 9.2% year-on-year rise in container handling volumes in 2011 to register 31.74m teu of boxes last year cementing its place as not just the world’s largest port overall but also the world’s largest container hub.

In late 2008 the decision

4m teu in annual capacity.

The city is desperate to up its transhipment credentials, something Busan and Ningbo are very strong on. Just 5% of Shanghai volumes are transhipment at the moment, and authorities want this to be 40%; the rub is the sheer breadth of facilities — Yangshan, a pair of islands far out to sea technically speaking in Zhejiang province, Waigaoqiao, five phases spread far and wide

2011 saw Shanghai become the first place in the world to handle more than 30m teu in a year was taken to ease off expansion at Yangshan Deepwater Port as the global financial crisis kicked in. Last year, however, the National Development and Reform Commission greenlighted the start of the fourth phase of construction of the port to the southwest of downtown Shanghai, an expansion that will add 40% extra capacity to the facility, which is already operating at 15% above its initial design capacity. A total of $1.554bn will be spent on the project through to its completion in 2015, adding a further

in the city, and old Wusong port — the port of Shanghai really is three ports. Streamlining is needed and that is why over the years we have seen many incentives and directives for liners to call at Yangshan.

With the World Expo Shanghai cleared out a large number of shipyards and small berths from the city centre.

What is likely to happen in the next wave of consolidation is the most draught restricted terminals might face the axe.

Shanghai Container Terminal (SCT) is the city’s

most central facility. A jv between SIPG, Cosco Pacific and Hutchison Port Holdings (HPH) on the Huangpu river at Wusong with a 1.7m teu capacity, the terminal was HPH’s second ever mainland China venture after Zhuhai when it commenced in August 1993.

Phase 1 of Waigaoqiao Container Terminal over in Pudong has basically the same shareholders as SCT. The threeberth site known as Shanghai Pudong International Container Terminals has a designed capacity of 450,000 teu.

Both these facilities look very ripe for redevelopment.

Waigaoqiao’s future is very much domestic and intra-Asia, while Yangshan will serve longhaul destinations.

“As the world’s shipping industry … faces economic uncertainties, Shanghai port, with its container traffic already at such a high level, has to stick to its innovation-driven model to blaze out a path toward sustainable growth,” the city government said in a statement on its website in late December.

This city never stops trail blazing it would seem. In the end, in case you were wondering, we told our parts supplier friend that anywhere around Baoshan was a safe area to invest in a building. It’s where the new cruise terminal and the last phase of Waigaoqiao is located and traffic is better there too. Safe as houses, if such an expression can be used in Shanghai.

HUBS: TAIPEI ■ ■ ■

Transport victory Taipei correspondent Joshua Samuel Brown says the recent election success by Ma Ying-jeou is good for those involved in freight transport

President Ma Ying-jeou’s victory this January in the polls ensures his plans to revolutionise the whole freight transportation scene will go ahead while cross-strait ties will further thaw.

US$10bn is being spent upgrading the airport in Taipei while the ports have been freed of their government regulatory shackles to act in a more market-orientated way.

The government in Taipei has indicated that logistics is one of the most important industries to the economy and capital must be spent on infrastructure to remain competitive.

Meanwhile, the island’s airlines and shipping carriers are adding ever greater exposure to mainland markets.

Jao Chih Ping, chief of the international logistics section at the Ministry of Transportation and Communications, tells SinoShip about the president’s so called Golden Ten Years programme which promotes the transformation of Taiwan’s industry through the competitiveness of the international sea and air gateways

zones and tax free zones as factories.”

Taiwan’s port industry transformed into corporate entities in March this year, aiming at increasing the competitiveness of work flexibility and customised service.

“Taiwan has high quality manufacturing capabilities, if the added value of the product after processing is more than 35%, we can export them using Taiwanese brands — Made in Taiwan — to increase operating revenues,” says Jao. Free Trade Zones in Keelung Port, Taipei Port, Taichung Port, Kaohsiung Port, Su-ao Port will be used to promote the development of Taiwan’s international logistics chain.

“We are making all these efforts to make sure Taiwan won’t be left behind by other Asian countries and regions,” the logistics chief asserts.

In a further sign of better relations across the Taiwan Strait, Beijing-headquartered Cosco and Japan’s K Line were linked in February as likely joint bidders for a stake in terminal six at the port of Kaohsiung in the first half of this year.

Both Cosco and China Merchants have repeatedly been linked with investing in Kaohsiung, ever since November 2010 when Cosco named a new boxship Cosco Kaohsiung.

Taiwan’s port industry transformed into corporate entities in March this year Ma has called for the “use of a ‘front shop’ strategy,” Jao explains, “which sees the seaports and airports as the so-called stores, and science parks, export processing

Cosco and K Line are in a liner pact with Yang Ming which controls the rights to terminal six at Taiwan’s top port in the south of the island.

Charitable will Taiwan’s answer to Warren Buffet in the philanthropy stakes, Chang Yung-fa, made waves in February with his decision to bequeath his entire wealth to charity, not to his five children. The founder of Evergreen, a renowned charity donor, is worth some $1.6bn according to last year’s Forbes list.

“Money is something that should be circulated around the world and not enjoyed exclusively by one individual,” Chang said.

“A lot of people think that earning a lot of money constitutes wealth. For me, working hard to earn a lot of money is certainly not a bad thing, but the happiness from earning a lot of money is fleeting because of the pain you feel when you lose it.

“But if that money is used for good deeds, it’s wonderful to see people get back on their feet because of the help you’ve given.

The happiness gained from doing a good deed always remains in your heart,” the tycoon said.

Chang set up an eponymous foundation in 1985 with a focus on philanthropic efforts and in 2008 he launched the free magazine, Morals Monthly Digest, in response to what he felt was the moral decline of Taiwanese society.

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By invitation only

Enjoy freshly squeezed data and sizzling debate with your bacon and eggs at one of SinoShip’s upcoming exclusive business breakfasts

17 May

SinoShip Dry Bulk Business Breakfast Foreign Correspondents Club, Hong Kong Sponsored by:

23 May

SinoShip LNG Business Breakfast Kerry Hotel, Pudong, Shanghai Sponsored by:

For more details contact grant@sinoship.org

HUBS: HONG KONG ■ ■ ■

Chris Howse BRIGHT STAR The SAR is leading the way in Asia in tackling marine pollution

Legal shakeup

Clear dialogue Hong Kong correspondent Alfred Romann hears about latest efforts to clean up the seas Southern China has the highest concentration of container throughput to population in the world, with some 58m containers moving next to 35m people.

With so much marine and land activity, keeping the waters clean is a massive challenge. Ocean stewardship is an increasingly important topic and was a big part of the biannual China Maritime Week, held in Hong Kong between February 27 and March 2. One event, the Clean Seas, Ships, Shores and Ports conference on March 1 focused specifically on the issue.

“If we want Hong Kong waters to be a certain way, what do we need to do? What needs to happen next?” asks Matthew Flynn, managing director of Flynn Consulting and the organiser of the Clean Seas conference.

The current focus of the industry is sustainability as opposed to corporate social responsibility — finding ways to carry on doing business while limiting negative

impacts on the environment.

One example of this is the push towards using more cleaner-burning soluble fuels.

Another is tackling the enormous amounts of plastic waste in waters around the world, even though only a fraction of it comes from marine industries — shipowners are helping control plastic by checking their water filters and keeping track of the plastic take up.

industry. Beyond finding new strategies to raise sustainability, the aim of the conference was also to raise awareness of what efforts there are to limit environmental impact.

“There isn’t too much recognition of what the industry has been doing and what the industry is doing,” says Arthur Bowring, managing director of the Hong Kong Shipowners Association.

A few years ago it was a great effort to get people to listen, but this has definitely changed “The marine industry doesn’t cause a lot of the mess that is in the oceans. A lot of it is from landbased industries,” says Flynn. “A few years ago it was a great effort to get people to listen, but this has definitely changed.”

In Hong Kong and China the topic is certainly relevant.

Hong Kong companies control or manage nearly 10% of the total tonnage of ships in use around the world, so the city plays an important role in the

Part of the problem is that the public doesn’t know or doesn’t care about what the role and impact that the shipping industry has on everyday life.

“Shipping doesn’t appear on people’s consciousness but seafarers see the environment,” he says.

A recent study suggests ships emit some 32 different types of pollutants and the industry “is addressing most if not all of these,” Bowring claims.

The dust is still settling on one of the most audacious breakaway moves seen in Hong Kong’s legal community.

Fully 50 staff including 15 lawyers left Reed Smith’s Hong Kong arm at the end of last year to join newly established independent Hong Kong firm Howse Williams Bowers (HWB).

HWB was established

by Chris Howse, Chris Williams and Kevin Bowers and has been in operation since 1 January 2012.

After one month the firm’s number of employees had leapt to 66. And by year end the goal is to have 100 staff members.

The majority of the 50 staff who jumped ship to the new firm had worked at Richards Butler’s Hong Kong office prior to its merger with Reed Smith in 2008.

Howse, a lawyer in Hong Kong since 1981, branded the 2008 sale of Richards Butler to Reed Smith as “a mistake”.

“We want to recreate Richards Butler Hong Kong,” Howse told SinoShip. HWB is already the sixth largest independent law firm in the territory.

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■ ■ ■ BOOKS

Power shift Paul French reviews two of many recent tomes that discuss China’s growing economic status Despite plenty of prophets of doom at the end of last year, the China story appears to be remaining compelling to plenty of people around the world; not least several of the Big Beasts in the analyst world.

Against those that think that China’s economy is about to run into serious trouble Jim O’Neill, chairman of Goldman Sachs Asset Management (and the man who gave the world the acronym BRICs) remains a staunch believer. His new book The Growth Map: Economic Opportunity in the BRICs and Beyond is massively upbeat, not just on China, but on Russia, Brazil and India too. O’Neill very strictly separates issues like human rights and press freedom from economic growth.

He is also a firm believer that calling China (and India for that

Still, there are issues. It is pretty much excepted by all economists now that countries with per capita incomes of over $10,000 a year rarely survive and prosper as authoritarian regimes, unless they are commodity strong (arguably this will save the “systems” in places like Russia and Kazakstan). The middle class becomes more demanding — Russia is already at (on purchasing power parity terms) $15,000 but it has vast amounts of minerals, oil and gas revenues to dole out. China, at $7,500 and growing fast, has no such natural abundances to fall back on. Of course, Beijing might once again buck the trend and just power on growing without any change. But then again it might not and O’Neill doesn’t really consider that scenario.

China isn’t an emerging market; it’s a growth market matter) an “emerging market” is wrong-headed — he prefers “growth markets”.

How else to explain the runaway success of fast growing consumer markets in countries like China and India that are rebalancing those economies away from merely being sweatshop economies or magnets for inward investment to more mature, self supporting economies?

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Niigata University of Management professor Ivan Tselichtchev has certainly set out to produce an ambitious book in China Versus the West: The Global Power Shift of the 21st Century. Manufacturing, environment, finance, economics — he tackles them all.

Unless you’ve been living in an internet-free, TV-free, e-bookless cave for the last decade you don’t need Tselichtchev

to tell you there is a shift of power from West to East and that China manufactures a lot of stuff. However, Tselichtchev goes one step further and argues that China’s economy may well be structurally and macro-economically stronger than most western countries.

That’s an argument that needs a lot of evidence.

Does Tselichtchev justify his provocative statement?

Well, he does and he doesn’t.

He certainly makes an argument for central control of key areas of economic policy and that China’s mix of state-private capitalism can function and he does admit that one “advantage” is to live in a country that is a continental economy and can impose its own standards on outside competitors. China hasn’t seriously “bumped” yet, but then we said that about southeast Asia before 1997.

Many feel the debate has already moved significantly beyond where Tselichtchev leaves it. There is little mention of the Chinese inability to seriously innovate so far or the problem with falling rates of entrepreneurialism and private

sector job creation — these are both debates much discussed in China right now. Most worryingly perhaps, Tselichtchev bases much of his theory of China’s pre-eminent role as a manufacturer and, as many others have written, that has been a product in large part of China’s demographic ‘sweet spot’, a sweet spot now receding after 34 years of the one-child policy. Manufacturing power is shifting — to India, Bangladesh, Vietnam. Might not those strengths Tselichtchev attributes to China as a manufacturing power not be shifting too?

As ever with predictions — both O’Neill’s and Tselichtchev’s — time will tell and we will see.

OPINION ■ ■ ■

How was it for you, dear?

Surviving the latest shipping recession may well be dictated by how you survived the boom years, writes Bei Hong The Lamborghini now gathering dust in the car park seemed such a good idea at the time. A symbol of power and success, its outrageous styling reflected the outrageous amounts of money made in the heady days up until mid2008, when it seemed anyone who could use a telephone could become a shipbroker and have a mega-deal Midas touch. Now the simple task of issuing the monthly commission invoice has been replaced with the prospect of spending months in an arbitration as owners set about trying to find the charterer who hasn’t paid for months. The answer “he was my classmate” just doesn’t seem to carry much weight when the lawyer asks what due diligence on the counterparty was done before the fixture was concluded.

As in all downturns and disputes, the only guaranteed winners are the lawyers. So perhaps the personality of the year at one of the numerous awards ceremonies which we

can expect during the course of this year (although mercifully SinoShip has pledged not to host one) should be a young lawyer who, forsaking the glamour of the corporate finance department to slave away mastering the Hague Visby rules and other quirky elements of maritime law now finds himself the most indemand man in shipping, other than, of course, the banker who says he is still “open for business”.

companies realised they didn’t need to control a large fleet to control freight costs — the ego of shipowners and a sharp dose of Middle Eastern politics took care of that — was one of the more memorable.

The 21st century started with the Chinese shipbuilding industry setting out to become the biggest in the world, something which was achieved by 2010 and as usual with all things in China, that was well ahead of schedule. But was it such a good

Lawyers now find themselves the most in-demand men in shipping It’s the big ‘game changing’ moves which seemed such a good thing at the time which are best remembered from the boom times. The rush to order supertankers in the ‘70s, culminating in the Seawise Giant, the largest moving object ever built by man, and a host of VLCCs which went straight from shipyard to lay up when the oil

idea? Surely an ambition to be the most profitable and efficient shipbuilder would have been a more noble cause. As orders get cancelled, smaller shipyards face closure and shipbuilders change their business model to become owners of ships they built which nobody now wants, once again it’s the lawyer who wins.

Another ‘game changer’

implemented at the peak of the market was of course the 400,000 dwt bulk carrier. The jury is still out on whether this was the ultimate example of hubris or a sound business decision, but somebody, somewhere seems to have forgotten to call someone important. Having been forced to ditch the sobriquet Chinamax for Valemax when a rather European ‘not in my backyard’ approach was adopted

by China, apparently fuelled by the country’s shipowning interests, Vale’s dream of a hugely efficient iron ore shipping ‘train’ to its major market now looks in tatters. There is no denying the economic logic behind this fleet of mega ships, but the continued reliance of China — at least for now — on the ‘traditional’ shipping industry to haul its iron ore imports is no doubt a relief to owners of conventional sized ships — and may even prompt them back to the Chinese shipyards for some more. Oh dear — do I sense the whole cycle starting again?

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■ ■ ■ OPINION

Down and out in Shanghai and Beijing Li Deng Bai reflects on the luxurious plight of many Chinese hit by the downturn In these lean and turbulent times it is sometimes hard to recollect the extraordinary highs of the bull market that prompted my return from America to the mother country in 2006. Six years of trying to do marine finance in China has left me older, wiser, not much richer (although my shirt is still intact which is more than can be said for others) — but with stories in abundance for when I finally heed my ageing mother’s advice and go back to LA and the family business.

In the middle of the last decade, to work here in China was to be in the heart of a kind of madness as the increasingly white-hot shipping market gave huge profits.

I remember meeting a dry bulk executive who told me that his boss had flown their entire chartering and operations management team to have a meeting on a super yacht in Melbourne — apparently the substantial bill was covered by the profits of less than one voyage in those days. If the operators were having it good I remember one Shanghai broker turning round to me on the golf course and saying he was making upwards of $200,000 commission for a single cape voyage and he was doing five a month.

Million dollar bonuses were flowing and the Chinese shipping community was drowning in champagne, smart cars and the delights that high-end karaoke bars had to offer.

On my end of the business I

could have claimed permanent residence at Macau’s Grand Lisboa given the amount of time and money I spent rolling out the red carpet for the new Asian shipping tycoons.

The real drama happened not when times were good, but when the market went off a cliff in 2008 and the whole edifice came tumbling down. What was unforeseeable was how people reacted to the downturn.

A good example was Pioneer Metals, the trading entity controlled by China’s erstwhile iron ore princess Diana Chen.

In early 2008 Chen was seen in Hong Kong at a dinner saying that she thought she would become the richest person in the world within five years.

Always a woman with a great sense of herself, I will never forget attending a ship launching in Japan where she was the guest of honour. She had presumed somebody of her stature didn’t need to worry about visas and was promptly detained at Narita. One spectacular tantrum later the shipyard managed to use its connections to get her in for the launching. When the wheels came off the world economy Pioneer Metals, this icon of Chinese trading success, suddenly found itself massively exposed in both physical and derivatives trading. According to reports both public and private Pioneer defaulted on huge FFA contracts that had gone against them as well as hundreds of

To work here in China was to be in the heart of a kind of madness 38

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millions owed to people like BHP for ore that was bought but never paid for. Later on, an article appeared in the press saying that the company had been wound up and at the time of closing it owned two minivans and about HK$5,500 in cash.

One has to presume that Ms Chen has not been reduced to living in a minivan.

Then there is the less than comic Grand China Logistics saga. Here’s a real Chinese story of the post-reform era — massive exuberant expenditure and investment by people convinced of their own propaganda that China will only keep on growing at lightning speed. In these days of European mega deficits and nationalised non-performing banks, people forget that China has had both banking system

failures and deficits bigger than its GDP in the last 30 years on more than one occasion.

Going out of business in China rarely seems to have a negative affect on one’s lifestyle. One Nanjing-based operator, who went out of business on the back of bad FFA trades, is said to live in a luxury villa with bodyguards and Aston Martins at the front door. Indeed one of the directors of the erstwhile shipping major, Glory Wealth, is said to have taken to the decidedly super-rich sport of big game hunting in the wake of the collapse of that concern. Meanwhile, a playboy/failed owner in Hong Kong has recently tapped a European bourse to fund a couple of private jets.

I can hardly complain; all this has served me well to be a periphery player in the greatest live show on earth.

OPINION ■ ■ ■

More flashes of inspiration needed Manish Singh argues China must innovate further as it climbs the ranks of international shipping In terms of delivering innovations in a maritime context, China is no small contributor, with credits dating back a long way to the origins of some fundamental drivers such as the magnetic compass or the fore/aft sail rigs and even the early stern post rudders, to name a few.

In recent times, China has emerged as a maritime powerhouse, with its prominence in global trade; its potential as a human resource pool and the seemingly inexhaustible infrastructural capacity.

The shipbuilding programs of unprecedented scale that played a key role in propelling China as a globally strategic maritime destination are not faced with the realities of a stagnant demand market, which itself is heavily dependent on China’s tremendous influence.

Many global businesses are hoping to stimulate new demand in China through offerings that are being continually adopted for Chinese requirements. However, in the maritime context it is also the ability of Chinese industry to be able to stimulate new global demand that will see it sustain the growth it has achieved in recent years.

With volumes shrinking or stagnant, it is technological innovation and the ability to develop and deliver new solutions on the global stage that will be crucial in sustaining the momentum gained through China’s tremendous investment in its maritime sector. Some

sceptics often associate adaptations of western innovation

by Chinese businesses as being shanzhai or mere copycat innovation. Recent examples have made such sceptics re-think, given the pace at which such seemingly-copycat innovation has proven to rapidly adapt new technologies and bring them to market. This, however, has often been at the cost of improvising or improving the product through the experience in commercial use.

Opinion may be divided as to how much this is true in the maritime context but there have been areas of improvement in build quality of vessel or components.

Much of China’s growth efforts were directed towards the prompt development of building capacity and associ-

to development of associated clusters, there has been a lag as the Chinese maritime sector copes in developing the level of in-country expertise and extensive human resource needed to sustain such growth.

In shipbuilding there’s a sea change whereby the lower cost of operating vessels through the life of the asset is arguably going to take precedence over the lower cost of construction.

Signs are evident that the Chinese industry recognises this and there are many examples where focus has been directed to green designs and

The lower cost of operating vessels through the life of the asset is going to take precedence over the lower cost of construction ated infrastructure that helped deliver the bursting orderbooks and frenzied shipbuilding in the not too distant past. Chinese shipbuilders benefitted from structured and extensive investments in this sector and rapidly gained market share in the demand for standardised tonnage at lowest price.

Where the market share grew on the back of extensive investment and policy support

energy efficient vessels. This is where China might be able to gain quick ground, bringing new green solutions and technologies to market faster than others given the vast resource availability. Rampant shipbuilding in recent years saw a lot of resource moved from the repair and support sector to add to the building capacity. In the years to come, some of this resource will be available to be re-directed into driving innovative design

and technologies and more sophisticated supply chains on the delivery side.

In keeping with the development of technical capabilities, investments are also evident in the expansion of financial, commercial and educational capabilities.

With a massive source pool to draw fresh talent from, China is in an enviable position to supply the human element to a chronically undersupplied global market. Here again some innovation is required in getting partnerships with reputed names from mature markets to accelerate the learning curve and development of local knowledge. High attrition rates in Chinese businesses also means that ‘non-wage’ differentiation like a culture of innovation-fuelled growth will help retain talent.

Sinoship SPRING 2012

39

■ ■ ■ PHOTO FINISH HIGH FIVE Work nears completion on a 35,000 dwt bulker at Jiangmen Shipyard 江门船厂一艘35,000 dwt 散货船即将完工

© André Eichman

40

www.Sinoship.org

PHOTO FINISH ■ ■ ■

Sinoship SPRING 2012

41

苏海文评论中国 独家修船数据

中 国 航 运 的 国 际 平 台 2012年春季刊

上海航运交易所

www.sinoship.org

创刊号

海丰国际 杨现祥 中国最大的私有船公司 的下一步计划是什么

太平洋造船 梁小雷 中国希腊经济

Sinoship 2012年春季刊

I

• 拥有超过140艘现代化且耗油经济的船舶

• 最重起吊能力达800吨。

• 是项目货及重大件的运输专家。

• 全球的代表处出色的运输管理能力在全球的航线得到体现。

• 自有吊杆

• 不定期班轮，租船运货

• 可调节双甲板是我们的特色。

• 定期班轮让你拥有最大限度的选择。

• Modern, fuel efficient fleet portfolio

• Lifting capacities up to 800 mt

• More than 140 vessels

• Transport management and engineering

• Own cranes and adjustable tweendecks

• Global coverage, local presence

• Handling of project- and break bulk cargoes

• Tramp, affreightment, liner services

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Phone +86 21 6336 9901

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leer@bbc-chartering.com

目录 ■ ■ ■

■ ■ ■ 定期报道 3 编者语 4 经济 7 班轮 8 船厂 11 离岸

13 金融

14 商品

16 物流

17 邮轮

■ ■ ■ 人物专访 9 杨现祥 1 21 梁小雷

22 张页

23 苏海文博士

■ ■ ■ 专题 4 修船 2 26 散杂货

29 新加坡企业在中国

■ ■ ■ 枢纽 2 上海 3 33 台北

35 香港

■ ■ ■ 评论 36 书籍

■ ■ ■ 意见 7 Bei Hong 3 38 Li Deng Bai

39 Manish Singh

很多非中国业主将被 拒之门外。 — BW集团,苏海文博士

23

航运运价衍生品将成为航运界 规避运价风险的工具之一。

22

— 上海航运交易所，张页

集装箱航运是一项开放的全球 性业务，没有任何的庇护港。 — 海丰国际,杨现祥

19

我们不会盲目扩大规模。

21

— 太平洋造船,梁小雷

安全文化在中国有发展空间， 但是那种发展不在当下，而是在 将来。 — Bernhard Schulte, Rajaish Bajapee

25

海运不会出现在人们的意 识里。

35

— 香港船东协会, Arthur Bowring

赚钱带来的快乐很容易流失， 因为当你失去那些钱的时候你就 会感到痛苦。 — 长荣, 张荣发

33

Sinoship 2012年春季刊

1

SHIP OWNERS

环境评估体系包括EVDI 石油和干散货审批专家 油轮网上审批信息系统 70000多船舶的数据库 全球巡检组 为客户定制服务 主计算机+驳船评估系统

petroleum@rightship.com

编者语 ■ ■ ■

中 国 航 运 的 国 际 平 台 www.sinoship.org ASM刊物

编辑主管 Sam Chambers sam@sinoship.org 首席通讯记者 司湘

katherine@sinoship.org 通讯记者 姜浩

jason@sinoship.org 北京 上海 香港 大连 台北

Li Deng Bai Paul French Alfred Romann Mark Downing Joshua Samuel Brown

为中国海运打造完 美的交流平台

供稿人

Li Dong, Bei Hong, Manish Singh

每年，我都会接到至少20余次来自于海

摄影

André Eichman, Basil Pao 所有编辑资料请发送至sam@sinoship.org 或邮 寄到中国大连中山区人民路9号701办公室，邮 编116001 商务主管 Grant Rowles grant@sinoship.org 中国销售主管 Tom Wu tom@sinoship.org SinoShip同时也在东京、首尔和奥斯陆设有广告 代理机构。欲获取当地代理联系信息请发送邮件 到grant@sinoship.org。 媒体信息可在www.sinoship.org下载。 所有商务资料请发送至grant@sinoship.org 或邮 寄到Asia Shipping Media, 83 Lorong N Telok Kurau #02-05, Singapore 425 265。 设计 Lamma Studio Design 印刷 香港雅联印刷有限公司

订阅 总部设在中国的所有海运公司都可以免费获取SinoShip 期刊。对于所有其他公司，订阅SinoShip2012年4期 需要收费100美元。订阅每月发行两次的PDF格式的 SinoShip电子新闻（包含独家新闻、数据和分析）需收 费500美元。订阅咨询请发送邮件到subs@sinoship. org。 版权 © Asia Shipping Media Pte Ltd (ASM), 2012 为确保本刊物所包含信息的准确性，尽管作出了所有努 力，但出版社对可能出现的任何错误或疏忽不承担任何责 任。版权所有。未事先获得版权拥有人的书面批准，不得 对本刊物的任何部分进行复制、储存于检索系统或以任何 形式或方式传输。

运公司和公关公司的问询，向我索要中 国主要的航运相关的新闻报纸和杂志。 过去11年来，作为劳埃德船舶日报和海 贸集团的东亚编辑， 我一直向人们提供 他们所需要的信息，但始终感觉没有理 想的交流平台可以用来报道中国航运业 的现状。 经过三年的酝酿，SinoShip于今年与大 家见面。我们打造了一个关于所有中国 海事信息的中心，包括印刷刊物、在线 新闻、数据或相关活动。 我们在大连、北京、上海、香港和台 北的记者网络在全球海事媒体界中有着 绝对的优势，在第二期发行前还会在广 州驻派通讯员。 SinoShip独特的商业模式，决定了它是 中国公司向海外发展以及国际公司在中 国开拓市场的完美平台。中国船东协会 和中国船舶工业行业协会的所有成员都 可以免费获得我们双语刊物。并且，所 有中国公司都可以免费获得我们刊物 — 我们拥有海事媒体界中无可匹敌的中国 数据库。香港船东协会的普通成员和台 湾的船东同样可以免费阅读此刊物。第 一期杂志还将在香港、上海、南京和新 加坡的重要行业活动上发行。 抱歉的是海外公司需要订购，尽管花 费不多。 无论是地理还是经济领域，SinoShip 的与众不同之处在于它的广泛视角。中 国媒体倾向于以成就为中心进行报道， 而国际刊物报道中国的时候又因距离因 素而无法深入洞察。我们旨在全方位报 道，对充满挑战的中国海事领域，赞其 优点，议其不足 — 对于相反意见的一 个很好的例子可参见第23页关于对BW集 团Helmut Sohmen博士的访问。

总之， 我对这个项目感到非常振奋。 到现在为止业内关键人物对它的反应也 的确很令人鼓舞。 本月末我们的新闻服务-www. sinoshipnews.com-启动时，期待在我们的 媒体产品方面收到您的宝贵意见并强烈 推荐您在LinkedIn上加入SinoShip China Shipping Network，跟踪我们的动态。

Sam Chambers 编辑主管 sam@sinoship.org Sinoship 2012年春季刊

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■ ■ ■ 经济

包括苹果在内的各类产品，正不断在 中国刷新销售纪录 — 北京的排队 购买情况也是前所未见，如图所示

掌控之中

而在许多非食品领域，通货紧 缩整年都持续存在。预计CPI 从去年的超过5%降至今年的 3.5-4%。

驻上海通讯记者Paul French的中国经济状况报告 强劲有力，反驳了众多悲观论者，令人耳目一新

债务

新的一年开始时，西方媒体 充斥着有关中国经济“末日 论”的报道。这些报道大部分 看似在讨论同样的事情 – 欧 美的经济下滑会最终影响到中 国，导致中国经济增长速度减 缓；城市房地产市场将崩溃； 通胀蔓延；地方政府巨额债务 缠身；个人消费萎缩。因此， 可能处理这些问题的最佳方式 就是逐一地处理：

经济增长 今年的GDP增幅会降至8.5%左 右。不过，中央政府对此表示 可以接受。那些抱怨增幅过低 的人，可能会记得，也正是他 们在年增幅超过10%时大喊“ 经济过热”。出口增长减缓会 带来适度的财政刺激，并使人 民币升值更慢，而不是引起贬 值。2012是中国的政治换届选 举年 — 至少领导层会进行 4

www.Sinoship.org

换届 — 这意味着今年不会 有重大的经济政策改变。

房地产 与多数分析师意见相反，中国 的房地产业情况并不糟糕。重 要的是，中央政府有许多控制 手段来拉动房产业，并且， 很可能会在下半年放松贷款限 制，重新拉动市场需求，从而 避免崩盘。由于下半年销售 额会提升，因此会继续促进房 地产建设。今年房地产价格 可能会下降大概5-10%，但这 不会吓跑热衷于房屋拥有权的 中国人。

毫无疑问，中国的地方政府有 债务问题。不过，中央政府和 四大国有银行会对这些债务进 行背书（并且最终是由共产党 担保）。债务的规模因基础建 设投入而不断积累扩大，而基 础建设可带来更大的经济发 展。较低的地方失业率和较高 的纳税水平，反映了上述情 况 — 去年地方政府的直接 财政收入迅猛增加，在2010 年25%涨幅的基础上，2011年 再度上涨至29%。消费带来了 收入。

消费带来收入

通货膨胀

消费

现在，可恶的通货膨胀已经 离开，猪肉市场对民生影响很 大，之前引发过民众忧虑，如 今已经回归常态。通货膨胀通 常主要是食品方面的问题，然

长期来看，中国仍然有世界上 最佳的消费环境。虽然一线城 市，如北京和上海的年度销售 额增长率可能会变慢（但年比 仍然高达16%以上），因为一

线城市已经较稳定、可预测和 成熟，但二三线城市正在高速 发展。家庭债务低（无信用卡 债务！），渴望消费的人群、 高就业率和持续增长的工资， 这些因素应该可以确保持续的 商品销售，但各零售商和品牌 之间的竞争也空前激烈。 这也是一个广泛的消费者 市场 — 从洗发水、牙膏和 面条，到苹果 iPod、玛莎拉 蒂豪车和整形手术。

新兴的中产阶级感到 压力 是否已有问题出现？没错， 中国已经走出了30年的人 口“甜点”。不再有充足的国 内移民来提供低廉的工厂劳动 力和服务业从业人员 — 制 造业工人、保姆、出租车司 机以及服务员的工资成本会提 高。新兴的中产阶级对生活 成本增长将深有感触，与人 口和城市化效应给他们带来 好处的时期相比，他们会感 到现在的日子更难过些。中 国“夹心层”中产阶级的出 现，可能会如同欧洲、美国 和日本的中产阶级一样，成 为2012年的有趣现象。

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Cambridge Academy of Transport Upcoming courses in Singapore

Anatomy of a Container Voyage 8–10 May 2012

Business of Shipping 14–18 May 2012

ORGANISED BY

Cambridge Academy of Transport 48 Whittlesford Road, Little Shelford, Cambridge CB22 5EW Tel: +44 (0)1223 845242 Fax: +44 (0)1223 845582 Email: enquiries@catz.co.uk Website: www.catz.co.uk

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管理燃油效率 从新造船项目最初阶段的协 助，直至用于船舶营运的工 具，FutureShip能随时为您 提供合适的解决方案，以提 升您的船舶燃油效率和赢利 水平。 敬请垂询。让FutureShip为 您展示未来的船舶！

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班轮 ■ ■ ■

小型内部LNG运输公司。该公 司打算在2014/2015年之前拥 有一系列30,000立方米货船， 因此可能有意向在今年晚些时 候开始造船。 总部位于香港的KC Maritime属于Chellaram家族 的分公司，正在进行收购。目 前该公司拥有11艘货船，但 有消息称他们计划购买“更多 的”货船。管理层认为二手船 价格可能仍会降低20%，这将 提供更佳的购买机会。

中远航运于二月中旬启动了 其在中国航运公司中首创的联 营交易模式。中远航运与中 国交通部广州打捞局(GSBMT) 签约管理GSBMT的华海龙号 三万载重吨位新造半潜船， 从而使中远航运的半潜联营船 目前达到了五艘。中远航运的 CEO韩国敏说：“随着半潜市 场的发展变化，进一步的合作 和联营协约将成为一种普遍的 趋势。” 中海发展（CSD）准备将其液 散货和干散货部门分开，以 “简化其内部管理体制，提 高运营效率”。CSD拥有90余 艘货船。新的散干货公司名 为中海散货运输公司，属于 中海位于广州南沙的全资子 公司。在出现巨大亏损后， 中远将散干货部门合并，成 为单独的所有权公司。CSD还 详细描述了其油轮运输业务 的规划。中海与中远均各自 打破了其集运部门合并的传 言，指出他们将有更多的共 享运力和联合运输路线，但 是并不会合并。 诉讼事件仍在打击大新华物 流。韩国的现代商船株式会社 （HMM）提请亚拉巴马州的 联邦法官判决冻结这家四面楚 歌的亚洲运营商的账户，虽然 它在伦敦仲裁委员会前就理清 了付款纠纷。尽管将会有几十

个债权人继大新华提起诉讼， 但诉讼只解决了涉及Golden Ocean、 Tumac、 Oldendorff和 Norden公司的六起纠纷。大新 华母公司海航集团的老板已经 承诺，将拿出更多资金支持其 子公司。

台湾的裕民航运2月份在中国 订购好望角型货船，与上海外 高桥造船签订四艘186,300载 重吨散货船的订购合同，还 有六艘船的选择权。每艘货船 的价格为4,980万美元，明显 低于许多人认为的好望角型船 的保本价格5,500万美元。裕 民航运总裁王书吉说：“拆船 的加速和新造船价格下滑，将 缓解散货海运市场目前供应过 剩的局面。裕民航运将2012 年暗淡的海运前景视为其以极 具竞争力价格订购货船的绝佳 机会。”

香港的OOCL（东方海外）将 在美国历史上书写一笔最大的 港口交易。由董氏家族控制的 东方海外集运公司签署了一项 价值46亿美元的交易，将租 赁美国长滩港中港300英亩土 地，租期为40年。

河运散货运营商CSC Phoenix（长航凤凰）仍旧 被严重的财政困境困扰。2011 年的经营亏损可能为8.8亿人 民币，这已经是连续第三年亏 损了。此外，该公司的资产负 债比已经接近100%，这已经 超过了银行贷款的安全边际。 随着银行贷款债务和扩建工程 的增加，“长航凤凰2012年 可能需要大约50亿到60亿人 民币的现金流，”一位分析人 士预测。 据报道，能源巨头Cnooc （中海油）正在设计成立一家

中国招商局能源运输股份有 限公司(CMES)正计划订购10 艘超级油轮(VLCC)，最近已 经声称非公开发行价值4.6亿 美元的股票。CMES称将通 过海外银行解决剩余资金。 目前CMES的船队规模达到 472万载重吨，其中包括13艘 VLCC，一艘苏伊士型油轮和 七艘阿芙拉型油轮。该公司的 经营计划声称将拥有总共30艘 VLCC。 香港的来宝集团任命Yusuf Alireza为新CEO，从2012年4 月16日起正式任职。来宝的代 理CEO Richard Elman （见相片）将在同日辞职， 但仍将继续担任董事会主 席。Yusuf是美国银行高盛集 团的亚洲（除日本外）联席 总裁。

Richard Elman

许多中国造船企业正纷纷效 仿其土耳其同行并开始拥有 船舶，以保证其干船坞正常运 转。据报道，位于扬州的舜 天造船就是目前许多希望购买 小中型散货船的公司之一。 同样，为了按自己意愿管理所 造船舶，太平洋造船已经设 立了一家总部位于香港的控 股公司，即香港皇冠船舶有 限公司。 Sinoship 2012年春季刊

7

■ ■ ■ 定期报道

2011年是造船业历史上交货量最高的一年，同时 也是六年来新接单量最低的一年。

兼并的时代 编辑Sam Chambers分析膨胀的中国造船业未来三年可能出现的转变 中国造船业面临的困境与 2008年末雷曼兄弟的问题如 出一辙，他们突然发现用于 建造普通船只的船厂严重过 剩，而市场已经不再需要这 样的产品。 中国船厂中的绝大多数还 在主营最基本的散货船和油 轮，而市场对这类船只的需 求已经萎缩。2011年中国船 厂交船总吨位中的三分之二 是散货船。 燃油价格的上涨对中国船 厂造成了双重打击，船东的 经营压力日益加剧，因此越 来越重视船舶的燃油效率。 只有天然气船之类的高规 格船只和蓬勃发展的近海领 域的船只依然在新订单中受 到追捧。在市场中的这个领 域，韩国造船业在技术上遥 遥领先，而中国因为缺乏技 8

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术创新能力，在短期内很难 缩小这个差距。 Clarkson称今年全球订单量 将减少9.7%。根据 Clarkson 的数据，去年签订的订单总 量为1,214艘船，比 2010年减 少了 48%。Clarkson的数据 显示，中国的订单总量下滑 了 58%。 而韩国几乎拿到了2011 年 全球订单的一半，夺回了造 船业霸主的头衔。 2012的情况也大致如此， 近海船和天然气船仍然是市 场中少有的亮点，这对韩国 船厂来说是好消息，而其他 地区则一片惨淡。 中国造船企业的高级管理 层并没有忽视提升技术能力 的迫切需要。 中国船舶工业集团公司是 一家掌管中国南部造船厂的国

有企业，总经理谭作钧二月份 接受电视采访时坦陈他曾预计 到中国造船业在技术上的落后 将对未来发展造成危害。 他还说，大约有一半的中 国船厂将在未来三年的困境 中被淘汰，2012年将是造船 厂大举兼并的一年。 目前中国船舶工业协会 （CANSI）登记在册的船厂 有 1,526 家，其中只有大约 400家有能力建造远洋轮船。 根据上海海事顾问 Ben Zhang 的估计，经过一系列的并购 和倒闭，到2015年中国造 船厂的总数将会低于50家。 希腊船业金融专家 George Xiradakis 则更为直接，他认 为并购之后的船厂总数不会 超过 30家。纵观全球前十大 造船厂，就会发现规模的重 要性，而韩国船厂在这其中

占据了七个席位。规模是未 来赢得订单的关键。 中国船厂的兼并势头已经 日益明显。在去年中国船厂 的交船总量中，排名前十位 的船厂占了47.7% 的份额。最 近一个五年计划的目标是将 这个数字增加到75%，达到与 韩国近似的水平。 在2002以来的十年间，全 球船舶制造产能增长了超过一 倍，其中大部分来自中国。分 析师一致认为，小型船厂因缺 乏技术和资金而更容易受到打 击，兼并势在必行。 根据CANSI提供的数 据，2011年共有30%的中国 船厂没有接到任何订单，导 致大量小型船厂关闭。迄今 为止，受创最严重的是江苏 省和浙江省，它们同时也是 造船业迅猛发展过程中创办

船厂 ■ ■ ■

当造船厂的产能得不到满足时，他们往往选择低于 总成本的定价。

价格差距 2011 年订单

新企业最多的省份。CANSI 称在他们的1,526家会员企业 中，目前有六分之一处于亏 损状态。 本文付梓之时，已有超过 30家中国船厂因缺乏订单而 被迫停业。 船舶制造数据Worldyards 主管 Matthew Flynn评论 说：“从目前的信用和运价情 况考虑，现在已经不是卖方市 场。出于对质量和燃油效率的 关心，船东们不得不认真审视 中国船厂的制造能力。” Clarkson的研究主管 Martin Stopford认为，未来十年海运 业将更注重成本而不是收益。 过去十年中，船东们热衷 于扩大规模，因为只要有船

下水就能赚钱，而现在他们 则要想尽办法削减成本。 “与过去十年相比，成 本管理变得越来越重要和紧 迫，”Stopford 说道。 他指出目前全球的船舶制 造产能约为5,500万cgt，但去 年的订单总量只占到产能的 一半。 目前船厂的订单还能让生 产延续大约27个月，但问题 是这之后该何去何从。 “明年这个差距还将继续 扩大。”Stopford说：“拿到 新的订单将越来越难。” 过去两年，新订单的价格 已经下跌了35%，未来还有可 能继续下跌。为了保证生产 的正常运转，造船业者不得

不以亏本的价格接受订单。 就如今年 2 月 13 日，我们看 到台湾裕民航运以每艘4,930 万美元的价格向上海外高桥 造船厂订购了四艘186,000 dwt的船，这个价格比保本价 低了大约570万美元。 “在困难时期，造船厂的 产能得不到满足，他们往往 选择压低利润率。在船舶制 造成本中，原材料占了60% 到70%，这基本上限定了价 格的底线，但是当订单缺口 越来越大，为了维持运转， 船厂将不得不进一步降低价 格。”Stopford解释说。 Stopford坚信目前的十年将 是对过去十年过快发展的偿 还，造船业的各个部门都面临

国家 吨位 价值 韩国 1,355万cgt 481.6亿美元 中国 920万cgt 192亿美元

着严重的产能过剩，低迷的行 情将一直延续到2020年。 “这个市场面临的问题使 我们对未来十年运价的预期 并不乐观，”Stopford如是 说。 “看看排进世界前30位的 中国船厂，”一位中国上海 的船舶经纪人说：“它们将 不断兼并周围的小厂，三四 年之后只有这些船厂能存活 下来。整个造船业的局面将 大有改观，经过整合之后的 行业格局将更有利于开发更 先进的船型。”

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离岸 ■ ■ ■

主宰近海支援船业务 Sam Chambers勾画出了中国如何迅速引领世界近海支援船建造业的蓝图 经过仅仅七年多的时间，中 国已经在近海支援船（OSV） 建造业方面完全处于优势地 位。目前，根据该行业汇总 的数据，中国正在自己着手 建造更复杂的OSV。 M3 Marine集团的CEO兼运 营总监Mike Meade说，“在 过去七年里，中国已经从一 无所有一跃成为能够建造世 界70% OSV的国家。”M3是 一家总部位于新加坡的离岸 船舶经纪公司。 在这一发展历程中价格 是至关重要的，通常中国造 船企业能够以高达50%的价 格优势削弱欧洲竞争对手的 实力。 虽然直至最近中国造船 企业仍然专注于亚洲的基 础设计，但现在他们准备进 入更高规格的欧洲船舶设计 市场。

Ulstein和Wartsila是中国日 趋壮大的两家主要的OSV设 计公司。 “目前中国主要扮演OSV 建造商的角色，但是像太平 洋造船集团这样一些领先的 造船企业已经开始开发自己 的OSV设计，”德国劳氏船级 社（GL）中国近海工程业务 拓展经理张广浩说到。 Meade在其位于狮城的办公 室指出，中国在OSV领域的地 位仅稍低于新加坡，在过去 十年中，Jaya控股在中国订购 了大量的投机船舶。 尽管在过去两年出现了大 量的OSV订单，但很少有人 担忧过生产能力过剩。M3的 Meade指出，“转售市场上即 期交货的溢价可高达20%。” 来自挪威BNB银行的数字 支持这一预测，即OSV领域不 可能出现生产力过剩。

转售市场上即期交货的溢价可高 达20%

通常中国造船企业能够以高达 50%的价格优势削弱欧洲竞争对手 的实力 北海的平台供应船（PSV） 和锚处理拖船（AHTS）的长 期固定设施数在2011年分别 跃升为128和48，而去年分别 为114和29。 在亚太地区，PSV和AHTS 的固定设施也分别从27和107 升至28和127。从全球看，长 期固定设施上的PSV总数在去 年从2010年的204艘增至233 艘，而且对AHTS的需求年比 从202艘升至328艘。 OSV订单仍不断涌入，但 这并不意味着许多大型造船 企业可能因为其它商船订单 的枯竭而开始建造OSV。 “尽管OSV的价格比相 同规模的集运船和散货船要 高很多，但建造商的利润率 并不高，因为机器和设备 的成本占据了价格的大部 分，”GL的张经理指出。此

外，OSV的规模较小，一般长 为50米-80米，对大型造船厂 来说要用大船坞去建造就不 太划算。

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金融 ■ ■ ■

红衣骑士 Sam Chambers 撰文，预计中国船舶融资交易今年将加速，且融资不会仅仅 用于在国内建造的船舶

欧洲船舶融资市场持续低 迷不振。过去几个月，许多 蓝筹股公司公开表示有意完 全撤出或大幅度撤出航运市 场。例如英国的Lloyds、法国 的Société General，甚至德 国的Deutsche Schiffsbank（名 字中包含航运的银行）已削 减今年对该行业的业务量。 据希腊的Petrofin Bank称，约 90%的西方船舶融资银行目前 正在削减其船舶融资业务。 “因此，过去三年，中国 的银行获得了巨大的机遇， 他们基于中国造船厂获得的原 有和新造船订单，赢得了希 腊船舶融资业务，”Petrofin Reseach的老板Ted Petropoulos 在一份报告中指出。 全球的新船建造订单排至 2014年，金额高达5,000亿美

元，而希腊作为世界上最大 商业船队的拥有国，占据了 其中五分之一的份额。 造船业正不断前往东方寻 找金融救助，而中国准备如 何巧妙地向处于困境却大手 笔的船东提供资金？ “预计中国成为拯救一切 的白衣骑士不太现实，”中 国工商银行董事总经理兼全

的贷款，为中国造船业提供 资金支持，据报道自那时起 这一数字已经翻了一番。 然而直到今年2月份这一资 金支持项目都进展缓慢。产 生的问题多种多样。中国各 银行的审查一直以来都要求 严苛并直接干涉到希腊船东 的业务，令许多问询戛然而 止。中国各银行在支持当地

预计中国成为拯救一切的白衣骑 士不太现实 球航运主管Paul Chang表示。 在希腊，中国金融机构花 费的时间最多。这缘于2010 年10月中国总理温家宝宣布 向希腊航运业提供50亿美元

融资方面的信贷保险（与中 国出口信用保险公司携手） 要求被视为成本过高，这部 分金额相当于新船价格的2% 左右。SinoShip认为，近来这

一要求不断被搁置。希腊船 东更愿意接受美元贷款，而 不是人民币贷款，因为人民 币融资要求悬挂中国国旗及 中国船舶抵押权，这会使得 船东面临更长的时间拖延、 更高的成本和更大的风险。 2月13日，中国与希腊签 署一笔具有里程碑意义的 交易，表示双方的交易取得 进展。中国国家开发银行 （CDB）与希腊Dryships签 署了出口买方信贷银团融资 项目。该融资项目是数亿美 元中国希腊航运融资特别计 划的一部分，该计划由中国 总理在18个月前公布。一笔 1.2258亿美元的融资将用于资 助正在上海江南长兴造船厂 建造的三艘206,000载重吨散 货船。 牵头者是国开行，联合 发起者是中国银行，这笔交 易成为由两家中国银行根据 新的中国希腊航运融资特别 计划达成的第一宗没有任何 西方银行参与的联合航运交 易。 XRTC Business Consultants 创始人兼董事总经理George Xiradakis担任了项目顾问， 他评论说：“中国的银行在 贷款结构和融资成本方面都 提供了具有竞争力的借贷产 品。当然，存在的主要问题 是新应用的回应时间较长， 但我认为中国银行业，尤其 是国开行正在采取适当的措 施规避这些弊端。” Petrofin的Petropoulos最近 报道称“随着专业知识的提 升，过去往往持续六个月或 更长时间的繁杂政府批准流 程将变得更具竞争力。” 截至本稿付印时，有一点 已经显而易见，即受本土近 期发展的支持，中国各银行 现在愿意资助未在中国建造 的船舶，这将是一个非常大 的发展。交通银行、中国工 商银行、中国农业银行和中 国银行都已经开展各项基础 工作，准备开始向在韩国造 船的船东提供融资。 Sinoship 2012年春季刊

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■ ■ ■ 商品

类似最近云南严重干旱的情况已经是屡见不鲜

东方巨龙之水 大连通讯记者Mark Downing阐述中国下降的地下水位对粮食进口的影响 中国副主席习近平最近高 调访美，不仅是向美国介绍这 位中国接班人，也证实了中国 日益恶化的水资源短缺问题。 随行的中国贸易代表团达 成了价值60亿美元的交易， 购买了数量创下历史纪录的 1,200万吨大豆，远远超过了 去年此类交易额。这意味着 中国现在购买了美国四分之 一的农作物。然而，中国真正 想要且越来越渴望的是充足的 水资源，这些交易间接缓解了 中国的粮食短缺问题。 因为生产一吨粮食需要 1,000吨水，这些交易是进口 水资源的一个有效方式。中 国实际上正用粮食来平衡水资 源。中国大部分水资源都用于 农业，无情的干旱、持续污染 和直线下降的地下水位，将进 一步挤压农业产量。中国被迫 进口粮食，以供应不断增长的 人口对高蛋白消费的渴求。 上海汇易咨询有限公司分 析师Tommy Xiao表示： 14

www.Sinoship.org

“我们几乎确定，中国的玉 米进口也将和大豆贸易一样 增长。”因为国内产量不能 与增长的需求同步，中国玉 米进口量预计今年将翻倍， 并且在2015-2016年，进口量 可能激增七倍，达到创纪录 的2,800万吨。中国也正在补 足粮食储备，用于防止市场 混乱。去年为应对通货膨胀， 已经消耗掉部分储备。 在这些最近的交易之前， 国际谷物理事会预测中国 2009年到2012年的谷物进口 将增长135%，达将近700万 吨，而产量增长预计只增加 11%，达到近2.88亿吨。 上世纪耕种状况的重大好 转，使中国成为自给自足以 及世界最大的粮食生产国。 除大豆外，中国粮食市场因 为粮食自给自足政策、严格 的市场监管和政府储备的稳 定，相对独立于世界其他地 区。然而，过去十年来多次 毁灭性的旱灾，尤其是北京

周边地区和华北平原堪称60 年以来最为严重的旱灾，已 经对粮食作物造成了损害， 同时地下水位下降，迫使中 央政府重新考虑其粮食自给 自足的国家安全立场。 自1949年以来，中国的 用水量已经增长五倍。到 2010年，3,710亿立方米水被 用于农业生产，占总用水量 的62%。然而，中国的人均淡 水资源非常少，仅为世界平均 水平的四分之一，即2,134立 方米；若干人口密集地区甚 至与中东情况相当。中国水 利部预测到2030年，人均水 资源将降至世界银行的稀缺

生产一吨粮食需要

1,000 吨水

水平：人均1,000立方米。中 国三分之二的城市面临着日 益严重的水资源短缺，年缺 水量达400亿立方米。华北地 区甚至出现了几乎是世界最 快的失水速率。北京的地下 水位已降低100-300米。 去年，中央政府将水资源 政策作为“十二五计划”和 “中央1号文件”的首要问 题，旨在促进政府部门之间 更紧密的合作。 中国水利水电科学研究院 认为，中国到2020年的粮食 产量要比2010年增加10%。为 实现增产，中国在2010-2020 年准备投资6,000亿美元用于 灌溉和水运输措施。 为维持全球出口大国的地 位，中国可能迅速成为世界最 大粮食进口国和国际粮食市场 的主要参与国。中国最大的粮 食和食用油贸易商、国企中粮 集团有限公司(COFCO），在 未来五年内计划投资超过100 亿美元用于海外并购。

Will the Dragon deliver?

The TradeWinds Shipping China conference, now in its 8th successful year, has always asked the tough questions and this year will cover both timely as well as timeless issues – from charter party disputes to banned VLOCs, the fate of shipyards to the liquidity conundrum.

Important maritime professionals lined up to speak include:

Don’t take our word for it “It was a thoroughly enjoyable experience as well as extremely beneficial from a business standpoint.” – Clarksons China “We found your conference very interesting and we are happy to have attended.”

– RINA

Robert LorenzMeyer, Owner & Managing Partner, Ernst Russ; Immediate Past President, BIMCO

Anil Deshpande, CEO, Foresight Group

Simon Liang, Chairman & CEO, Sinopacific Shipbuilding Group

Wang Chun Lin, Executive Director, Pacific Basin Shipping

David Wu, President, Grenland Group Asia

PLUS: Sun Licheng, President, China Classification Society (CCS) • Vinay Patwardhan, Director of Group Planning & Development, Tai Chong Cheang Group (TCC) • Remi Eriksen, CEO, DNV Maritime and Oil & Gas • Mike Meade, CEO, M3 Marine • Bjorn Hojgaard, CEO, Univan Ship Management • Hsu Chih-Chien, President, Eddie Steamship / Courage Marine • Antoine Gustin, MD & Head – Export Finance, BNP Paribas • John Payne, Group Business Development Director, Hallin Marine • and many more...

“The content of the conference was very relevant and the papers of a very high quality.”

– Holman Fenwick Willan

Have you RSVP-ed on Linkedin?

Make sure you click “Attending” on our Linkedin page (tinyurl. com/Linkedin-SC12) so you can see who else will be at the 8th TradeWinds Shipping China – plan those crucial meetings beforehand!

To see the full programme and who else will be participating at this event, visit the TradeWinds Shipping China 2012 page on www.nhstevents.com. Make sure you register early to avoid disappointment – this is the ONLY maritime conference you need to attend in China.

For enquiries, please call Banu Kannu on +86 186 2136 0996 or email banu.kannu@nhstevents.com.

Sponsors

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■ ■ ■ 物流

日益增长的问题 通讯记者Jason Jiang报道中国的冷链行业面临挑战

据估计，在中国，有1/3易腐坏的 食品在运输和存储的过程中受损

中国的食品数据很庞大。在 国内，举例来说，有超过2,500 家大型肉类加工厂，他们每年 的总产出超过6,000万吨。同样 的，有超过2,000家大型冷冻 食品加工厂，每年的总产出超 过1,000万吨。中国每年的冷饮 产量与上述数字接近，另外国 内每年制造800万吨的乳制品 和4,400万吨的水产品。这并 不奇怪，随着中国人越来越富 有，消费能力越来越强，消费 也越来越多样化，因此对冷链 物流的需求以每年8%的速度 在增长。 不过，这些令人震惊的数据 也有背后的另一面。据中国官 方估计，每年有25%至35%的 肉类、蔬菜和水产品（价值约 为800亿人民币），在运输和 存储过程中被损坏。 近年来，食品安全问题在中 国已成为热点问题。思念是中 国国内一家领先的速冻食品品 牌，最近被消费者和媒体报道 16

www.Sinoship.org

其销售的速冻饺子细菌含量超 标。一系列受到高度关注的乳 制品问题事故，也让消费者心 有余悸。 “中国的冷链物流行业发展 仍处于初级阶段。下一个15年 将是中国冷链物流业高速发展 时期，”国家物流标准化技术 委员会冷链分会的秘书长刘卫 战肯定地说。 刘认为，中国冷链行业的主 要问题是由于规模小和市场非 标准化导致的低运营效率。

技术已经很落后。再次，第三 方的冷链物流公司发展过于缓 慢。冷链物流系统不完整。某 些大制造企业不得不投入大量 的经费建立自己的冷链物流系 统，但很显然，小公司就没有 能力这么做。 而且，冷链的标准不完整。 目前仍然没有针对设备、制 造、运营和管理的国家标准。 抛开所有的这些争论，很 显然，外国公司有很好的介入 机会。

中国的冷链物流行业发展仍处于 初级阶段。 据刘所述，首先，严重缺 乏冷链的基础设施。冷藏车仅 占全部货运车辆的0.3%。现有 的冷却和冷藏设备大都过于陈 旧，并且地区分布不平衡。其 次，与国外相比，国内的冷链

普菲斯亿达 (PFS Yida Logistics) 是一家合资公司，其 美国合资方为Preferred Freezer Services (PFS)，北美最大和全 球第三大的冷藏仓库运营商， 其中国合资方为大连的亿达集

团，涉足房地产开发、IT 咨 询和物流行业，正在进入中国 的冷藏市场。该公司于去年下 半年在天津港开始建造其冷链 配送中心项目，该项目在2013 年建成后，将服务中国东北 地区。 2011年底，PFS在上海靠近 洋山港的临港物流园启动了其 在中国的首套冷藏设施，存储 容量达四万吨。第二套设施位 于上海的外高桥，存储容量达 三万吨，在我们刊发此文时已 经启动运营。 PFS下一步计划在珠三角地 区建立一个规模相似的中心， 以满足当地需求。 PFS的国际业务拓展部总经 理Tim McLellan表示： “我们正建造最尖端的冷藏设 施，并与合资物流伙伴中国外 运集团合作提供冷链物流解决 方案。我们还将在中国其他地 区扩展业务模式，长期目标是 提供全国性冷链设施网络。”

邮轮 ■ ■ ■

尽管发生Costa Concordia邮轮 触礁事故，但前景依然一片光明 今年仍有众多大型邮轮将停靠中国 一月份在意大利触礁的Costa Concordia邮轮上的22位中国旅 客全部幸免于难，值得庆幸。 令人意外的是，从总体上 来看此次重大灾难后中国消费 者对邮轮行业的反响并不是太 坏。中国仍然是邮轮行业增长 最快的市场，在过去四年中， 旅客数量增长了两位数。 “我们原以为可能一段时 间内不会有预订，”一个大连 旅行社表示,“但我们仍陆续 收到大量询价。” Costa 邮轮表示，其在亚洲 的增长目标将稳定在40%，且

该地区的所有邮轮部署将按 计划进行。今年，在Costa的 亚洲增长计划中，中国占很大 部分。 作为第一个在中国运营的 外国邮轮公司，Costa正在中国 加倍投放船队，增投了一艘7.5 万吨级的维多利亚号邮轮，提 供3-7天的短途航行，带领旅 客到邻近国家的著名旅游胜地 游览，例如日本和韩国。 在导致32人死亡的意大利 触礁事故后，公司已在中国 寻求公关支持。由于Costa试 图在中国“抓住复兴势头前

进”，公司已指定伟达公关上 海分公司为其监管品牌声誉。 迄今为止，已有超过17万中国 旅客乘坐Costa邮轮旅行。 在中国运营顶级邮轮码 头的上海国际港务集团股份 有限公司的一位高管告诉 SinoShip:“今年我们的49个母 港停靠中将有34个来自于Costa 的维多利亚号。意大利发生的 事故将不会影响到维多利亚 号在上海既定的计划。从旅客 预订的角度看，我们暂未发现 Concordia号事故产生不好的后 效应”。

同时，皇家加勒比国际邮 轮公司正向中国引入其庞大的 海洋航行者号，为中国提供20 个旅行航程。另一艘邮轮海洋 神话号，本月已返回中国， 这是其近几年来第四次造访中 国。这两艘邮轮从天津、上海 和香港出发，提供大约50个行 程，目的地是亚洲国家，包括 日本、韩国和新加坡。这是皇 家加勒比首次在中国同时运营 两艘邮轮。 同时，地中海邮轮公司计 划将在2014年向中国引入一艘 邮轮。 Sinoship 2012年春季刊

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A LEADING MARITIME FAIR IN NORTHEAST ASIA

2012

- 8TH INTERNATIONAL SHIPBUILDING, MARINE EQUIPMENT AND OFFSHORE ENGINEERING EXHIBITION FOR CHINA OCT 23 - 26, 2012, DALIAN, CHINA WWW.SHIPTEC.COM.CN

JOIN US AND SHARE THE SHIPBUILDING & OFFSHORE GROWTH IN CHINA Official Show Organizer: Dalian Xinghai Exhibitions Co., Ltd. Tel: +86-411-3991-6904 / 3991-6903 / 3991-6911, E-mail: shiptec.china@gmail.com

人物专访 ■ ■ ■

航运届的UPS SinoShip采访中国最大私营航运企业首席执行官杨现祥

集装箱航运是一项开 放的全球性业务，没有 任何的庇护港

当

被问到如何形容其运营模式 时，有着21年历史的 SITC 提到了一家公司：快递巨头 UPS。这家快速发展的集装 箱航运公司首席执行官杨现祥先生对此解 释到，SITC正努力将其快速、强大，密集 的运营网络以及高效和专为客户定制的服 务相结合，从而将其自身塑造为航运界美 国品牌UPS。 这家亚洲运营商认为其正处于一个较 为有利的位置，与许多同行相比，该公司 更有能力应对航运业当前的低迷时期。 “各种外界因素可以用一句中国古话 来总结—天时、地利、人和，即恰当的 时间点、地理优势和良好的人际关系，” 杨现祥说。“就天时而言，”他继续到 “中国的整体环境非常优越。中国正在不 断发展，这对我们的业务非常有利。就地 利而言，相比较于其他地区，在船运业的 低迷时期，亚洲是表现最优异的地区之 一，而且我们的业务正好基于该地区。就 人和而言，我们在亚洲拥有众多分支机构 和网络，我们的航运系统和客户群都非常 稳定。”

SITC具备的另一个有利因素就是专注 度，杨现祥称。公司并未分散精力经营房 地产、钢铁厂和其他项目，而是专注于航 运和物流。在物流方面，SITC投入了大量 硬件设施，包括物流园区和仓库，并能提 供门到门服务。 即使是在过去三年的低迷时期，这家 在香港上市的航运企业依然能够在集装箱 装货量和吞吐量方面保持每年近 10% 的 增长率。 今年，SITC将有12艘新建船舶交付， 公司目前也在积极关注新建船舶和二手船 舶的价格，并计划再购买一些船舶。 SITC能够保持充足现金流的秘笈正是 公司对时机的良好把握。2004年后，由于 价格高涨，公司暂停订购新船。直到公司 于2010年上市后才再次开始签署新建船舶 的采购合同。 “集装箱航运是一项开放的全球性业 务，没有任何的庇护港。”杨现祥说，“

我们所处的市场是相同的，不同的是每 家公司的运营方式、管理系统及其他方 面。” 杨现祥认为航运业收取高运费的高峰 时期已经一去不复返，市场至少需要三至 四年才能重新实现较为稳固的供需平衡 态势，“可能还会需要更长时间，”他 警示到。

SITC

SITC于21年前在山东成立，以营业 收入来算，公司目前是中国最大的 私营航运企业。该集装箱航运企 业目前运营有53艘集装箱船，其中 30% 为自有船只，平均船龄为七 年。公司中期船队发展计划是将船 舶自有率提高至50%。SITC于 2010 年在香港上市。

Your chance to reach the right audience This magazine is being read by every major shipowner across Greater China.

Features in Issue Two include ship recycling and crewing.

Contact grant@sinoship.org for advertising details Sinoship 2012年春季刊

19

人物专访 ■ ■ ■

太平洋造船另辟蹊径 在中国船舶制造业的兼并大潮中，SinoShip征询了来自于中国领先船厂之一的老板的观点

梁

小雷领导的太平洋造船是中 国最受赞誉的船舶制造企业 之一。即便如此，他也曾在 最近的市场低潮中徘徊过。 目睹了数百家船厂为了争夺订单而垂死 挣扎，太平洋造船的董事长兼CEO梁小 雷对SinoShip坦言：“目前市场严峻，需 求疲软，尤其是资金困难和政策困境， 资源的重组和整合不可避免。” 梁先生祖籍浙江，以其创业的热情而 闻名。他认为“危机和机遇是并存的”， 因此他的公司组建了一个专门的团队， 负责研究并购机会，近几年来，已经有 一定数量的船厂就相关问题联系过太平 洋造船。 一直以来，太平洋造船都坚持着非常 明确的市场定位，正是这一点让它从众 多同业中脱颖而出。 “作为一家私有造船企业，我们不会 盲目扩大规模，而是专注于有高门槛和高 技术要求的市场和领域，以增加我们产品

我们不会盲目扩大 规模 的附加值。”49岁的梁先生如是说到。 手上握有充足的订单，这意味着太平 洋造船不必为了生存而大幅降低价格， 这在目前的市场形势中非常罕见。他们 有近120艘船的订单，价值近40亿美元， 几乎可以让他们的所有干船坞满负荷生 产到2013年。 “在 2012年，我们不必为了取得新 订单而发愁，因为现有的订单已经足够 了。现阶段进行投资的大多是战略型船 东。他们关心的只有三个方面：品质、 品牌和性能，特别是运营成本，也就是 燃油消耗。这正是我们的强项。” 太平洋造船的主营船型是散货船和 海上支援船，但公司也在研发自己的 油轮。 太平洋造船的发展规划是继续提升软 实力、加强营销和加大研发投入，所有这 些因素使他们在中国造船业中卓尔不群。 在太平洋造船已交付的船只中，有将近百 分之九十是由他们位于上海的研发团队自 主开发的。 今年二月，该船厂又一自主设计的船 舶Crown 63首次下水试航。载重为63,500 dwt 的DY4001（首艘Crown 63）在2月18 日成功完成了所有海上测试。这只是该 厂今年计划交付的22艘该型号货轮中的 一艘。该船型采用了大量的绿色科技， 可节省 13% 的燃油，成为亚洲首艘获得 法国船级社节能设计指标（EEDI）认证 的船舶。 这些货轮中的一部分将交由太平洋 造船的香港子公司Crown Ship（皇冠船 舶）管理，一个船舶持有与贸易间的 平台。 梁先生强调说：“Crown Ship 的定 位并不是成为船东。” 我们将利用这个载体来更好地理解 船东的需求，同时为客户提供替代性金 融解决方案。

首先，Crown Ship 可向客户提供额外 的交货前期资金，使船东在交付之前可 少付30%的预付款。其次，新船可以直 接注册在 Crown Ship 名下，而最终船东 可以通过转售获得这些船。再次，Crown Ship 可以为新船和光船的中长期租赁提 供贷款，条件是合同到期后购买该船。 这是一个开创性的理念，充分体现了 梁先生“不按牌理出牌”的精神。他曾 在著名的巴黎索邦大学就读三年。

太平洋造船 太平洋造船集团于2003年由梁小雷 先生创建，是一家从事船舶制造、 交易和设计的多元化企业。该集 团旗下有两家造船厂—浙江造船 厂和扬州大洋造船厂，总订单量近 120艘船舶，价值近40亿美元。主 营船型为散货船和海上支援船。目 前，太平洋造船正在通过其香港子 公司进入船舶所有权领域。

Sinoship 2012年春季刊

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■ ■ ■ 人物专访

市场的主人 首席记者Katherine Si采访快速发展中的上海航运交易所总裁张页

上

海航运交易所（SSE）庆祝 其成立 15周年之际，其面 向世界提供的产品规模就像 滚雪球一样越来越大。事实 上，过去 12 个月中上海航运交易所推出 的服务比以往任何时候都多，它已经成为 一个名副其实的国际航运参考工具，例如 其集装箱指数正在成为领头羊，备受彭博 （Bloomberg）等机构的推崇。 上海航交所的转型一直与中央四年前 宣布的“至 2020 年将上海打造成国际金 融和航运枢纽”方针同步。 总裁张页认为，上海航交所的作用是 为中国政府与市场之间提供信息。具体 来说，航交所的三个目标是“信息成市 场、指数成体系、交易成规模”。 除了拥有班轮指数、国内煤炭指数、 国内散货指数，两个衍生品平台，上海 航运交易所计划在今年推出国际干散货 和油轮指数，这个迅速发展的信息平台 下一步有何计划？ “上海航运交易所将保持稳定性和 创造性，”张页说，“我们将进一步发 展上海国际航运信息中心，同时完善我 们的集装箱、干散货、油轮、船舶价格 和其他航运指数序列，使船舶交易、运 价交易和人才交流等都达到一定的规 模。” 去年6月28日推出的衍生品平台与集 装箱航运指数挂钩，跟踪包括欧洲，地 中海和美国航线在内的15条航线的即

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航运运价衍生品将成 为航运界规避运价风险 的工具之一 期费率，是上海航交所向前迈出的一大 步。仅第一个月成交规模就达到 40 万 手，后来达到百万。 虽然班轮业的很多公司对衍生品持保 留意见 - “航运已经算是赌博了，对衍 生品敬谢不敏” — 上海航交所坚信衍生 品的前景非常好。首先，上海航交所预 计该平台以中小型企业为主。较小的班 轮公司因为在定价方面能力较弱，所以 需要风险管理工具。 上海航交所认为衍生品比传统对冲 工具好，只有当市场具有显着的流动性 时，才可以吸引规模较大的公司。现在 仍然是衍生品发展的初期。张页强调 说：“目前，航运运价衍生品仍处于市 场培育阶段，”他说，“我们需要拓展 市场。未来，我们要使航运运价衍生品 成为航运界规避运价风险的工具 之一。” 除了班轮市场工具，上海航交所还为 秦皇岛到上海和广州的航线上 40,000 至 50,000 载重吨散货船推出了衍生工具。 新的衍生品按照汇率运行运费率指 数，以人民币结算。衍生品也以“手” 为单位交易，1 手等于 100 吨的货物。 上海航交所需要收取每个交易者 20% 的 保证金。 根据上海航交所的信息，两条航线 的煤炭运价往往波动很大。每年根据费 率，两条航线上超过 400 公吨的动力煤 的运费从20元到160元/吨不等。 张页表示，如果新衍生品受欢迎，交 易所将考虑为更多航线和更多的货物引 进同类产品。 上海航运交易所总部设在黄浦江畔， 现在有80名员工，另外有300名在各下属 机构工作。伦敦波罗的海交易所事实上 有200多个中国成员，包括集装箱班轮公 司、代理、托运人、货运代理、银行和 经纪公司。 那么张页对航交所未来十年有何展 望？“在未来十年里，”他说，“根据 将上海打造成国际航运中心和金融中心

的总体规划，上海航运交易所将与上海 同步发展，继续以上海为总部，覆盖全 国，积极参与世界航运业务。” 这场数据风暴，换句话说，这雪球， 将继续加速并扩大规模。

上海航运交易所 上海航运交易所成立于 15 年前，由 张页先生领导，目前拥有两个衍生 品平台，五个指数，一个新闻中心， 并且计划在今年晚些时候推出国际 干散货和油轮指数。

人物专访 ■ ■ ■

苏海文评论中国 BW集团老总称“很多非中国船东将被拒之门外”

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去十年里航运管理人员 对中国的繁荣前景一片赞 颂，那些零星的反对声音 在今天艰难的环境中显得 难能可贵。尽管许多人仍然相信中国可 以为目前萎靡不振的航运业找到出路， 然而来自香港的世界最大且最受尊敬的 船东之一的意见是：别把所有筹码押到 中国身上。 BW集团主席苏海文博士 (Dr Helmut Sohmen) 和他过去30 年来的得力助手环 球航运代理公司(World-Wide Shipping Agency )主席 Stephen Pan警告SinoShip的 读者说，随着中国公司对其供应链的控 制越来越大，在中国的外国船东前进的 机会可能会越来越少。 “一些非中国船东将被拒之门外，” 72岁的苏海文补充说，“机会将有所减 少。”

苏海文解释说，随着中国造船业的快 速增长，船舶运载能力过剩是不可避免 的，到时候，国有企业会到北京请愿， 要求获得他们应得的保护。 “他们建的越多，国内生产总值就增长 得越多，”苏海文说，“国内生产总值 的增长永远是第一位。” “当中国人学会自己做事后，利基的 机会将会逐渐消失。” Pan告诉 SinoShip 世界过于看重中国对 全球经济复苏的帮助。 苏海文赞同这种观点并从航运的角 度指出，虽然中国的需求增长不会“消 失”，但“不应仅仅指望中国”。他指 出中国目前的石油进口量也有所降低。 Pan认为甚至连中国航运公司惊人的发 展速度近年来也有所放慢。 “看看国有及准国有船东公司的扩张 程度，虽然幅度惊人，但现在速度正在 放缓”Pan说。他一直在关注大新华物流 公司 (Grand China Logistics)，该公司营运 伊始的宏伟抱负是截至2014年拥有 100艘 船，但现在他们却在为支付租赁款而苦 苦挣扎。 “中国在供过于求的问题上帮不上 忙”苏海文说。苏海文是奥地利人， 从1970年开始为环球航运代理公司工 作，1986 年担任该公司主席，是2003年 大胆收购挪威Bergesen公司的主要决策 人。 中国近海被许多人捧为行业的另一根 救命稻草，苏海文在此再次戳破了乐观 的泡沫。 “到目前为止，（中国人）在近海业 务领域非常不成功，所以我对于近海的 期望有限，不指望中国近海。”苏 海文说。BW目前拥有16个海上设 施，主要是浮式生产储油卸油船 （FPSO）。 那么，除去悲观的一面，在 中国还有什么机会吗？苏海文 对液化天然气 (LNG)领域很感 兴趣，称“虽然我们无法在 2015年之前进入中国的液化 天然气行业，但是我们仍然 很想涉足”。他补充说整个 中国的液化天然气进口基地 将会增加。 国家机关今年早些时候

宣布，去年 LNG 进口增长45％，预计 2012年的增长情况类似。 另一个未来值得关注的行业是中国 的炼油厂建设，可以预计会有大量产品 出口。 在Pan看来，中国煤炭进口还有很大 上升空间，需要建设各种必要的基础设 施例如大量的码头等以接纳越来越多的 煤。

BW 从事船队运营，拥有/部分拥有或 控制116艘船，包括油轮、液化天然 气 (LNG) 运输船、液化石油气 (LPG) 运输船和浮式生产储油和卸油船 (FPSO)，环球航运 (World-Wide) 1955 年在香港成立，创始人是包玉刚爵 士，截至1979年已成为世界最大的船 业公司。苏海文 (Helmut Sohmen)，72 岁，1986年担任主席，2003年接管挪 威的 Bergesen公司，更名为BW。继承 人：安德烈斯 (Andreas Sohmen-Pao)。

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■ ■ ■ 修船

飘红 Katherine Si 独家报道了中 国庞大的船舶维修网络，并认 为该产业目前在中国已经出现 了饱和。

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悉，中国的船舶维修产业 内部在逐渐膨胀，来自关 闭的新建船厂的额外维修 能力是引起诸多恐慌的真

正原因。 维修能力过剩与需求不高之间的矛盾， 导致去年中国船舶维修行业薪资和工作 量均有所降低。 根据中国船舶维修业最大的集团公司 中海工业有限公司(CIC)副总经理李正建 的估计，拥有五万及五万吨级以上规模 船坞的修船厂的船舶维修能力已经达到 1,000万载重吨。 修船厂不仅数量过多，而且规模也在 逐渐扩大。目前，中国拥有17个30万载 重吨级或更大规模的修船坞，其中包括6 个在建项目，21个维修能力在10万~30万 载重吨级之间船坞， 26个维修能力低于 10万载重吨的船坞。目前在建的修船坞 中，60%都是维修能力超过30万载重吨的 大型修船坞。

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中国船舶工业协会(CANSI)船舶维修分 2011年许多大型修船坞投入运营， 例如上海有一个30万载重吨位干船坞， 会的一位官员对此持有相同的观点，也 认为目前存在总体能力过剩问题，并告 福建一个18万载重吨级船坞，山海关 船舶重工业有限责任公司有两个船坞， 诉SinoShip:“事实上，有许多新的修船 维修能力分别为14万和23万载重吨位， 设施正在建设中，其中包括许多大规模 船坞和起重机。我们认为船舶维修行业 大连还有两个超大型船坞，为30万和 确实存在生产能力过剩问题。主要不是 40万吨级。此外，还有10个修船坞正 因为修船订单数量少，而是修船设施过 在建设中，主要分布在渤海湾地区和 多所致。” 福建省。 CANSI报道称，修船的价格在整个 李先生认为，船坞的总维修能力已经 2011年间已经有所下降，而且在2012 过剩，但是整个中国的船坞分布与规模 年的第一个月仍然继续在下降。“有些 却有些失衡，例如珠江三角州地区的维 修船厂正在无利润经营，只是在维持 修能力就相对有些薄弱。

修船 ■ ■ ■

船运经理人的观点 新加坡MTM船运管理公司老板 Vijay Rangroo对中国动荡的船舶维修 业提出了一些简单的建议。“对策 是，”他说道，“与一家造船企业 如中远集团或中船澄西船舶修造公 司建立关系，然后与其保持密切接 触。”Rangroo认为中国的钢件和涂漆 工作还是不错的，更多的微调工作诸 如校准或再调质等可能存在问题。他 说，在价格问题上中国是不会被打败 的，但是安全仍然是个“问题”。 而且，Bernhard Schulte香港公司的 CEO Rajaish Bajapee也表达了相同的观 点。“没有一种规模适合所有安全解 决方案，”他说道。“安全文化在中 国有发展空间，但是那种发展不在当 下，而是在将来。”

中海工业有限公司（CIC） 就船舶维修数量而言，这家中国海运 集团的子公司连续三年跃居中国最大 修船企业，2011年修船数量超过中远 船务仍居榜首。去年，CIC维修船舶 数量达到746艘，与去年同期相比增长 12%，占中国15家主要修船企业修船 总量的22%。该集团公司创建于1998 年，在全中国拥有并管理6家修船厂。

整个中国拥有五万及五万吨级以上船坞的修船厂的 船舶维修能力已经达到1,000万载重吨

而已，而已经有几家修船厂不得不停 业。”CANSI官员说。 SinoShip调查了许多修船厂后发现， 去年营业收入的平均下降率约为15%，而 平均利润下降大约为45%。 但是，与造船业不一样，CANSI并未 预言未来船舶维修行业会有一个兼并的 时期。 有些修船厂仍然在向造船方向转变， 分析人士认为，在今年更晚些时候这种 局面将会逆转。目前位于长江三角洲崇 明岛的上海华润大东船务工程公司是中 国当之无愧的、最具实力的专业船舶改

造公司，该公司刚开始着手建造一系列 8,800teu的集装箱船。该船厂去年增建 了一个380米长的干船坞和一系列钢结构 和涂层车间，并外加一个800吨门式起 重机。 由于造船企业转而成为修船企业，不 断压价，在过去12个月中已经有30家造 船厂停业倒闭，真正的问题是额外修船 能力的泛滥。然而，经验丰富的船运工 程师告诫说，不应将造船和修船混为一 体。“技能是固定的，用于修船和造船 的基础设施是完全不同的，不应混为一 体，”新加坡的一名工程师警告说。

中国主要的船舶维修企业中在年营 业额方面，友联船厂有限公司（蛇 口）2011年首次跃居榜首。位于华南 的友联2011年总年营业额为18.5亿元 人民币，年比增长16%，完成了233只 船的维修工程（包括维修和改造）， 其中包括三个VLCC到VLOC的改建项 目，一项干货船与下水货驳船改建项 目，一项FPSO综合维修项目和马士基 航运公司的八只巨无霸型集装箱船的 深度维修项目。 “尽管我们去年做出了良好的业 绩，但是利润却只是过得去而已，” 一位发言人告诉SinoShip。“目前船舶 维修价格不是很好，自从今年年初开 始已经滑落。” 友联今年不计划扩大业务，2012年 第一季度的生产已经排满。

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■ ■ ■ 散杂货

中国今年有望出口超过1,000台风力涡轮机

快速演变的行业 Jason Jiang 在中国上海散杂货运输展览会的报道

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国大量的散杂货持续吸引 着来自世界各地的运营商， 但是在中国进行贸易涉及的 纷繁难懂之处，依然需要较 长时间和耐心来了解适应。二月底，由 UBM组织的中国上海散杂货展览会的参 与者们，清楚地了解了在这个广袤之国 开展贸易的正面和负面因素。

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中国港口吞吐量去年已达到72亿吨， 其中上海独占鳌头，为6.2亿吨。 上海散杂货量从2006年的2,600万吨发 展到去年的4,800万吨。这个惊人的发展 速度已令人难以望其项背，上海港务局 预计在未来五年内，散杂货年增长率为 10%左右。 参会代表们了解到，尽管上海散杂货

码头目前已经扩建，依然承受着巨大压 力。中波合资公司中波轮船副总经理李 一平表示：“散杂货码头几乎已经达到 饱和状态。”然而好消息是仓库正在扩 建，且散杂货的港口计算机管理系统正 在加强，这将对提高吞吐量有所助益。 瑞克麦斯轮船公司中国高级代表 Wolfgang Harms同意这种论点：

散杂货 ■ ■ ■

中波轮船公司

中波轮船是一家中国和波兰各占百 分之五十股份的合资公司，不久前 接收了从大连中远船务工程有限公 司订购的一系列六艘三万吨重吊船 中的最后一艘，且目前正在准备另 一个大订单。中波轮船称得上是 1949年后第一个在中国注册的外 资合资企业，总部位于格但斯克和 上海。公司的重吊船队现共有20艘 轮船，让这个61年历史的合资公司 具备50万吨的载重能力。中波轮船 很快将再订购八艘重吊新船。

2010年开始在风电容量方面独领风骚。 中国政府承诺，将在2020年前向风力发 电行业投入5,000亿元人民币。 目前，中国生产的风力涡轮机设备 大多进入国内市场，但出口量预期将在 2015年占到30%。 2011年，中国向欧盟出口了361台风 力涡轮机设备，出口印度300台，出口美 国71台，出口澳大利亚70台，出口南美 29台。

在中国采购

“为应对将来货物量的增长，基础设施 非常必要。”这家总部位于德国汉堡的 公司在展会宣布扩展中国市场的业务范 围，在长沙、重庆和成都增设联络处， 并巩固公司在广东的业务发展。 Harms说道：“向主要的工业生产设 施、工程、采购和施工公司靠拢，将提 高公司从工厂到建设现场为客户提供量 身定做、创新和高效运输解决方案的能 力。”

价格敏感性 发言人和参会代表们一致同意，如果要 取得像样的财务绩效，中国市场确实仍 然形势严峻。来自美国管理咨询公司科 尔尼的Mui-Fong Goh认为，中国货运商

仍然是“受价格驱动”。 然而，Goh注意到货运商更愿意指定 提供增值服务的物流伙伴。她表示这是 国际公司的一个机会，但是考虑到中国 物流公司为满足各个供应链要求的迅速 和“咄咄逼人”发展，实在很难预测这 个机遇持续的时间长短。 Goh说道，“中国散杂货市场正在 按正确的发展方向快速发展。如果想要 成功，仍需要大量的细心、控制和 勇气”。

风力 在增加中国出口业务量的货物方面，风 力涡轮机在展会中获得了较多关注。科 尔尼管理咨询公司的Goh表示，中国从

依靠和美国、欧洲及日本的技术领先企 业成立合资公司，中国产品、部件、设 备和机械的精密程度继续更新换代，国 外物流供应商在中国寻找优秀代理和供 应商也变得越来越为重要。 泛亚班拿集团公司总裁Brain Posey表 示：“中国在过去十年内提供了大量的 机遇，因此准备进驻或想在中国采购或 制造产品和服务的国外公司也有着潜在 的竞争优势。然而，一旦进入市场，保 持竞争力则非常重要。我们必须愿意适 应和升级自己的采购策略。” 宏鹰国际货运公司总经理Clement Tan 说：“寻找合作伙伴时必须做尽职调 查，找出合作伙伴的签约动机，并了解 其运营能力，保证合作伙伴能满足自己 的要求。” 中波轮船公司的李一平先生讨论了外 商不能转运货物的老问题，认为根据中 国政府发展西部地区的战略，这个规定 有望很快成为过去。 Sinoship 2012年春季刊

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■ ■ ■ 新加坡企业在中国

船东在狮城

1996年PSA在大连 进行了首次海外投资

得益于新加坡得天独厚的优惠港口

航运合作伙伴 编辑Sam Chambers前往狮城深入了解新加坡企业与 中国之间的紧密联系

中

国一直是新加坡最重要的贸 易伙伴之一。两个国家之间 的双边贸易以每年6.4%的速 度增长，2011年达到了805亿 美元。目前，中国是新加坡的第二大贸 易伙伴和第一大投资目的地。 中新自由贸易协定和中国-东盟自由贸 易区协定的签订使中新两国之间的经济 合作更加紧密。 中新两国在海运领域有着紧密的合作， 在保持正常对话之外两国大型航运企业 在对方国家都有着大规模投资。 例如，去年十月新加坡与中国签订 了关于海事、航运和港口合作的谅解备 忘录。 90

柱状图：双边贸易（10亿美元） Bilateral trade ($bn)

80 70 60 50 40 30

20

73.4

73.2

60.5

76.4

81.3

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

10 0

28

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这份新的谅解备忘录（取代了2004 年签订的版本）不仅“强调了中国和新 加坡多年以来建立的良好双边关系，同 时也验证了两国在海事关系上的长足进 步。”新加坡交通部在一份声明中说道： “这份谅解备忘录将为两国合作关系的 长远发展奠定基础，包括航运政策、海 事安全和防卫以及海事研究、开发、教 育和培训。” 与中国交通部部长李盛霖共同签订此 谅解备忘录的新加坡交通部长吕德耀说， 这份谅解备忘录将促使两国“共同解决 在海事和航运领域遇到的新的挑战，谋 求两国在海事领域的共同利益。” 在大规模海外投资方面，港口运营商 PSA国际港务集团在中国的大范围投资可 谓首屈一指。早在1996年，PSA的第一个 海外投资项目就发生在中国东北部港口 城市—大连。此后，该集团陆续在中国 的天津、福州、广州、东莞和香港投资 兴建了航运码头。 “尽管在短期内经济增长可能放缓，中 国依然是PSA的重要市场之一。”PSA 东 北亚地区CEO Ong Kim Pong这 样对中船说道：“中国的港口有着巨大 的潜力和美好的前景，这是我们投资的 原因。” 去年，同为新加坡港口运营商的裕廊 海港也在中国日照投资了它的首个海外 港口。

条件，许多大中华区的船东选择在此 注册。中远投资是其中最值得一提的 企业之一。作为中国最大的航运企业 的子公司，中远投资拥有中国最大的 船舶维修厂、造船厂和近海海洋工程 业务。该企业还经营干散货和船舶代 理业务，并已在新加坡上市。 另一家多年来让新加坡当局亦喜 亦忧的企业是台湾的长荣。2002年， 长荣退出新加坡港转而停靠与其竞争 的邻近港口马来西亚丹戎帕拉帕斯港 （PTP），带来了不小的震动。但在 三年前，该公司创始人张荣发选择了 大举回归新加坡，将一大批原本悬挂 巴拿马国旗的货轮注册在新成立的新 加坡子公司名下。原因是新加坡颁布 了一项国际航运企业（AIS）计划，向 符合要求的国际航运企业提供10年的 可更新税收豁免权。不久将有50艘货 轮挂起新加坡国旗。 长荣强势回归新加坡之后，负责当 地代理业务的副总经理 Patrick Phoon 最近当选为新加坡海事协会（SSA） 主席。 “考虑到我们未来将会遇到的挑 战，”Phoon在他今年一月当选为 SSA 主席后的首次发言中说道：“我非常 希望新加坡政府……能够通过减免 税收降低在新加坡开展航运业务的成 本。” 新加坡提供的优惠政策吸引力是 如此巨大，致使一些原本注册在亚洲 另一大型航运港口—香港的蓝筹股 企业也纷纷转投新加坡的怀抱。2009 年末，香港太古集团旗下久负盛名的 航运公司China Navigation也离开了香 港，步环球航运的后尘在新加坡重新 注册，现已更名为 BW。

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Getting your message across in a language your clients can understand

■ ■ ■ 新加坡企业在中国

当前 形势

Sinoship介绍三家新加坡航运公 司在中国的活动

1

967年，出生于金门岛（与厦门隔 海相望）的张允中先生创立了太 平船务有限公司（PIL）。他是 那个时期为数不多的成功地在中 国发展生意的新加坡商人之一，开创了 中国到中东的航运服务。经历了45年的 迅猛发展并得益于其子张松声的妥善管 理，中国一直是PIL的绝对业务中心。 作为世界前20强的集装箱货运公 司，PIL已经在中国建立了超过10家分公 司和15家代表处，而且其近年来的大部 分船舶都是在中国建造的。PIL同时涉足 集装箱制造业，旗下的胜狮公司是世界 第二大集装箱制造商，在中国设有九家 工厂。在物流领域，PIL已经在中国建立 了超过十家经营物流相关业务的合资公 司，业务范围包括供应链管理、货物集 散、仓储、集装箱堆存和公路运输等。 最近，PIL的业务还扩展到了中国东 北的一家船舶拆修厂。大连造船工业公 司（DSIC）将在今年四月份开始运作位

物流巨头APL旗下首艘容量达10,000个标准集装箱的货轮已于十二月份下水， 取名为“APL重庆号”，因其公司在重庆市设有最大的海外办事机构而得名。

于长兴岛上的新造船厂。这家船厂将跻 身世界最大的船舶拆修设施之列，DSIC 占有其中67%的股份，鞍钢占15%，另 外18%为PIL所有。 另一家值得一提的新加坡船运公司 是海皇集团（NOL)，通过旗下的APL和 APL物流在中国投下重金。事实上，APL 与中国的渊源可以追溯到 1867年。去年 六月，NOL迎来了一个历史性的时刻， 其在中国的首个合资集装箱码头投入 运营。 NOL与 SITC和青岛前湾联合集装箱码 头有限责任公司共同在青岛经营容量达 150万个标准集装箱的码头。此集装箱码 头装备有七台超巴拿马型起重机和十六 台轨道式堆场龙门起重机。 作为一家远洋货轮公司APL在全球拥 有200多家办事处，但它在新加坡以外最 大的办事机构却位于一个距海洋1500 公 里之遥的地方。2010年9月，NOL在世界 最大的直辖市—重庆设立了它最大的海

很少有外企能像IMC这样在中国有如此广泛 的投资。 30

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外办事机构。新加坡总理李显龙和重庆 市市长黄奇帆出席了全球服务中心的开 幕典礼。该中心拥有600多名员工，负责 所有航线和物流子公司的后台管理。

从大连到香港 船舶物资供应商新和 (Sinwa)在中国有 着独一无二的地位。该企业在中国设 有七家办事处，是唯一一家在这个世 界第一人口大国设有办事机构的新加 坡船舶供应商。此外，新和还将在短 期内扩大版图：目前正在上海寻找适 合存放补给物资的仓库，同时还有大 客户要求他们在蓬勃发展的中国大型 港口再增设两处办事机构。 从已有的八个战略位置出发，新和 能够向中国的80多个港口和和船厂提 供服务。 新和执行主席兼CEOMike Sim 表 示：“在中国市场逐步开放之际，我 们希望参与其中并向客户提供强大的 服务网络。” 除新加坡和中国外，新和同时也为 澳大利亚各港口提供服务。

新加坡企业在中国 ■ ■ ■

“中国的企业和银行最近开始成立融资租赁公司。 这些公司目前专注于国内业务，而且相当繁忙。当 他们放眼未来部署远期资金规划时，也许就会考虑 进军国际航运领域。中国企业习惯在香港和新加坡 设立他们的海外中心和上市融资。综上所述，新加 坡将继续受惠于中国企业。如此一来，船运信托也 就会成为中国人的另一条投资渠道。通过与一些中 国企业和投资人的沟通，我们了解到他们对船运信 托很有兴趣并将持续关注这一领域。” — Philip Clausius，首航融资信托 CEO

NOL在全中国有46家办事处和超过 1,800名员工，并在上海设立了区域总 部。上海是整个北亚的总部，现任APL 总裁Kenneth Glenn在去年回新加坡上任 之前曾负责主持这里的工作。 IMC(万邦)集团则堪称在中国拥有最多 元化资产的新加坡航运公司。创始人曹 文锦先生生于上海，在过去十年中，该 集团在房地产和船运及造船领域最大的 投资都发生在中国。 舟山万邦永跃船舶修造有限公司是中 国最大的修船厂之一，拥有两座分别为 300,000 dwt和100,000 dwt的干船坞。未 来在舟山和大连的船厂也是IMC 版图的 一部分。 同时，中国船舶重工集团公司 （CSIC）与IMC合资创建了上海中船重 工万邦航运有限公司，主要经营国内化 学品运输业务。 IMC还在大连和连云港投资了港口； 同时与中远集团在青岛建立的合资企业 青岛远洋大亚物流有限公司 (GACOSCO) 是山东省最大的货运代理公司之一。 同样在青岛，IMC旗下的船舶管理公 司MSI也有着骄人的业绩。很少有外企 能像IMC这样在中国有如此广泛的 投资。

2007年吉宝南通船厂投入运营。

未来规划 新加坡船厂在中国建造自己的设施

为

了将来的发展，新加坡各大 船厂纷纷在包括中国在内的 海外市场投资。 三巴旺船厂在1995年首 开先河，与中国海洋石油总公司签订了 合同，拿下了天津一家修船厂50%的股 份。1996年，拥有两座85,000 dwt 船坞 的渤海三巴旺船厂投入运营。2003 年三 巴旺出让了在这家合资企业中的股份， 但很快就锁定了另一家中国修船业巨 头—中远造船厂，并在2004年购买了其 中30%的股份。 与此同时，吉宝岸外与海事集团的全 资子公司—吉宝南通造船厂于2007年在

江苏省投入运营。 该厂主营海上支援船和拖船，占地16 公顷的厂区具有建造25艘此类船只的能 力。最近接到的重要订单包括为Asian Lift建造一艘人字架重吊船，金额高达 1.16亿美元。该订单预计将于2013年第 三季度交付，建成后的5,000吨浮吊起重 船将是世界上最大、功能最强的人字架 重吊船。 最后是ASL海运，在亚洲设有三座船 厂，分别位于新加坡、印尼和中国。它 在中国的设施位于广东省境内，最近完 成了扩建，去年接到了一份九艘锚处理 拖船/支援船的订单。 Sinoship 2012年春季刊

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■ ■ ■ 上海

上海港4.0版

Percentage share of teu teu百分比

一个新的港口总体规划正在酝酿中。SinoShip猜测可能涉及的内容

80

外高桥 Waigaoqiao

70

釜山 Yangshan

Wusongkou 吴淞区

60 50 40 30 20 10 0 2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

Source: Colliers International

上海迷人的轮廓

一天，有一家领先的国 际航运零部件供应商咨询 SinoShip：在中国蔓生的金融 大都市中，哪里才是他们建 设存储设施的最佳位置。这 可不是一项简单的任务。对 那些认为2010年轰动无比的 世博会标志着上海已是一个 发展完备的城市的人来说， 不妨再想想。上海就像变色 龙一样，还在继续变化，起 重机高耸，即使长期居民都 要承受独特的中国都市式奥 兹海默症。不，不是让您每 天起床找钱包那种老年痴呆 症，而是因为变数太大，导 致您必须花时间再三确认是 否走错街道的不安。 城市港口行政管理部门高 层承认新的港口总体规划将在 短期内出台，但对于实施细 则他们依然守口如瓶。 SinoShip 对港口所知甚 详，足以对我们称之为上海 港 4.0版的计划做出部分合理 的推测。 32

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首先，让我们看看数字。 去年，上海成为世界首个每年 处理超过3,000万个标准集装 箱的地方。港口公布的集装箱 处理量同比增长9.2％，2011 年的处理量达到3,174 万个标 准集装箱，巩固了上海港不但 整体上是世界最大港口也是世 界上最大集装箱枢纽的地位。 2008年底，因为全球经济 危机的影响，国家做出了洋 山深水港扩展进度放缓的决 定。不过，去年国家发改委

个标准集装箱。 该城市正在竭力提升其转 运能力，这是釜山、宁波的强 项。目前上海的处理量中， 仅有5％是转运量，当局希望 这个数字达到40％，这纯粹 是设施地域跨度太大造成的 问题 –洋山是一对远海岛屿, 严格来说可划入浙江省，外 高桥的五期项目分散在市区 周边各个地方，还有老吴淞 港 — 上海港实际上是三个 港口。精简是必要的，这就

城市的最中心的设施。是上 港集团 (SIPG)、中远太平洋及 和记黄埔港口（Hutchison Port Holdings）在黄浦江畔的吴淞开 办的合资企业，容量为 170万 标准集装箱。该码头是和记黄 埔港口继1993年8月在珠海之后 在中国大陆开的第二家企业。 上海浦东外高桥集装箱码 头一期的股东基本与SCT的相 同。这个被称为上海浦东国 际集装箱码头的地方拥有三 个泊位的站点，设计容量为 45万个标准集装箱。 这些设施看起来都是成熟 的重建项目。外高桥日后主要 服务国内和亚洲内部，而洋 山则服务长途目的地。 市政府12月下旬在其网站 上发表声明称“现在世界航 运业 ...经济前景不明朗，上 海港口集装箱运输已经达到 如此高的水平，要坚持创新 驱动模式，开辟一条可持续 发展的道路”。 这个城市似乎从未停止过 开拓向前的步伐。最后，如果

去年，上海成为世界首个每年处理超过3,000万个 标准集装箱的地方。 还是对在上海市中心西南方 向的区域启动港口四期建设 开了绿灯，此扩建将令港口 增容 40%，后者的运营容量 已经超过其最初设计的15％ 以上。2015年项目完成时， 其总投资金额将达到15.54亿 美元，年处理容量增加400万

是多年来洋山一直实行很多 班轮鼓励措施的原因。 由于上海世博会从市中心 清理掉大量船厂和小泊位， 在下一波整合浪潮中，最有 可能被砍掉的是大多数有吃 水限制的码头。 上海集装箱码头 (SCT) 是

您想知道的话，我们是这样 告诉我们的零部件供应商朋 友的：宝山周围都是建筑投资 的安全区。它位于新的邮轮 码头和外高桥最后一期之间， 交通也更便利 — 就像房屋 一样踏实安全，如果这样的表 达可以用在上海的话。

台北 ■ ■ ■

运输业的胜利 台北通讯记者Joshua Samuel Brown称最近马英九的当选对 货运业者是一个利好

今年一月马英九在领导人选 举中成功连任，确保了他对于 整个货运产业的改革计划能够 在两岸关系日益缓和的环境中 继续进行。 将有100亿美元的资金用于 台北机场的升级；同时各港口 将脱离政府的监管走向市场导 向的运营模式。

台北政府已经明确指出物 流业是台湾的支柱产业之一， 政府必须加大基础设施的投资 以确保竞争力。 与此同时，岛内的航空和 运输公司也正以空前的规模进 军大陆市场。 台湾交通部国际物流司司 长 Jao Chih Ping告诉Sinoship，

马英九的“黄金十年”计划将 通过全面提升台湾在国际海运 和空运门户中的竞争力，促进 整个产业的转型。 “马英九提出了一个‘门 店利用’战略”Jao说道： “也就是将港口和机场看做所 谓的‘门店’，同时将科学园 区、出口加工区和保税区看做 是‘工厂’。” 今年三月份，台湾的港口 业将转型为法人实体，旨在通 过提升工作灵活性和提供客制 化服务加强竞争力。 “台湾拥有高品质的制造 能力，如果加工后总的附加值 高于35%，我们就可以用台湾 本土品牌（台湾制造）进行出 口，提升营收。”Jao 说道。 同时利用设在基隆港、台 北港、台中港、高雄港和苏澳 港的保税区促进台湾国际物流 产业链的发展。 “我们正在采取各种举 措，确保台湾不会在与其他亚 洲国家和地区的竞争中落后于 人。”物流司长肯定地说。 作为两岸关系缓和的一个 标志，二月份有消息称总部设 在北京的中远与日本川崎将在 今年上半年对高雄港的六号码 头进行联合投标。 从2010年11月中远将一艘 新的集装箱货轮命名为“高雄 号”开始，中远和招商局已多 次在高雄进行投资。 中远和川崎与阳明海运同属于 一个航运协定，而阳明目前拥 有台湾南部最大港口（高雄 港）六号码头的控制权。

今年三月份，台湾的港口业将转型为法人实体

慈善愿景 作为“台湾慈善界的沃 伦巴菲特”，张荣发于 今年二月宣布将他的全 部财产捐赠给慈善机构 （而不是他的五位子 女），此举引起了轩然 大波。根据去年的福布 斯排行榜，这位长荣创 始人和知名慈善家目前 拥有的资产约为16亿美 元。 “财富应该在整个世 界中流通，而不是被某 个人独享，”张先生说 道： “许多人认为赚很多的 钱就是创造了财富。在 我看来，为了赚钱而努 力工作当然不是坏事， 但是赚钱带来的快乐很 容易流失，因为当你失 去那些钱的时候你就会 感到痛苦。” “但如果这些钱被拿 来做了善事，看到有人 因为你的帮助而获得了 新生，却是一件非常美 好的事情。做善事带来 的快乐会永远留在你的 心里。”这位商界巨头 如是说。 早在1985年张先生 就创建了同名的慈善基 金；有感于台湾社会的 道德滑坡，他在2008 年 创办了一份免费发行的 杂志《道德月刊》。

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Posidonia 4-8 June 2012, Metropolitan Expo, Athens Greece

A unique blend of business and social interactions at the heart of Shipping Be part of the great Posidonia experience at a state of the art new venue

The International Shipping Exhibition

Organisers: Posidonia Exhibitions SA, e-mail: posidonia@posidonia-events.com

www.posidonia-events.com

香港 ■ ■ ■

Chris Howse

法律 特区在处理海洋污染方面领先亚洲

净海对话 香港通讯记者Alfred Romann报道关于海水清洁的最新进展 华南拥有世界上最高的集装 箱吞吐量与人口比，大约有 5,800万集装箱往来于3,500万 人口之中。 伴随着如此多的海上和陆 上活动，保持水域清洁是一项 巨大的挑战。海洋环境监管成 为日益重要的课题，并成为 一年两次于2月27日到3月2日 之间在香港举办的“中国航海 周”的重要讨论议题。3月1日 举办的一项活动：清洁海水、 船只、海岸和港口会议，特别 专注于这一问题。

续发展，而不是企业的社会 责任：在限制负面环境影响 的同时，找到继续从事商业 活动的方法。推动更多清洁 可溶性燃料的使用就是一 个范例。另一个就是处理世 界范围内大量的水上塑料垃 圾，尽管只有少部分来自海 事业。船东们正通过检查他 们的水过滤器和跟踪水上塑 料，控制塑料垃圾。 “海运业并未造成大量海 洋垃圾。大量的垃圾来自于陆 地产业,”Flynn 表示，“几年

10%，因此，香港在该行业中 占据了举足轻重的地位。除 了寻求新的策略增强可持续发 展，该会议的主要目的也在于 提高各行各业对降低环境影响 的努力关注。 “对行业已经发生的或正 在发生的事情没有足够的重 视，”香港船东协会的总经理 Arthur Bowring说。 部分问题是公众不知道或 不关心海运业对日常生活的作 用和影响。 他指出“在人们的意识

几年前，为了使人们听从建议，我们付出了很大的 努力，但现在情况已经完全不同了 Flynn Consulting的总经理 和净海会议的组织者Matthew Flynn问：“如果我们希望香 港水域走一条特定的路，我们 需要做些什么？接下来将发生 什么？” 当前的行业焦点是可持

前，为了使人们听从建议，我 们付出了很大的努力，但现在 情况已经完全不同了。” 这一主题当然与中国香 港和大陆有关系。香港公司控 制或管理的在用船舶吨位， 约占世界在用船舶总吨位的

中，是不会出现海运的，但海 员能看到这种环境影响”。 最近一份研究暗示，船 舶释放出32种不同种类的污染 物，该行业“正在解决大 部分污染问题（即便不是全 部）。”

香港法律界所经历的最大 胆的分离变动之一终于尘 埃落定。 包括15名律师在内的 50名员工，去年年底离 开了礼德律师行香港分 行，加入了新成立的独立 香港公司Howse Williams Bowers（HWB）。 HWB由Chris Howse， Chris Williams 和 Kevin Bowers设立，从2012年1月 1日起开始运营。一个月 之后，公司的员工数目已 增至66。其目标是到年底 拥有100位员工。 跳槽到新公司的50位员 工中，大多数人于2008年 在齐伯礼律师行香港分行 与礼德律师行合并之前， 曾在齐伯礼律师行香港分 行工作过。 Howse，自1981年起， 就是香港的一名律师，认 为2008年齐伯礼律师行与 礼德律师行的合并是“一 个错误”。 “我们想重建香港齐 伯礼律师行，”Howse告 诉SinoShip。HWB已成为 该领域第六大独立律师事 务所。

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■ ■ ■ 书籍

实力大转移 Paul French点评近来众多有关中国经济地位 上升的书籍中的两部 尽管去年年底有大量悲观预 言，中国的发展似乎依然令 全世界许多人瞩目，尤其是 分析界的几位巨擘。 与认为中国经济将面临严 重问题的论调相反，高盛资 产管理公司董事长Jim O’ Neil （金砖四国概念首创人）仍 然有着坚定的信念。他的新 书《增长图：金砖四国的经 济机遇与未来》，不仅对中 国，也对俄罗斯、巴西和印 度的情况非常乐观。O’ Neil 严格将人权和新闻自由等问 题与经济发展分离。他同 样也坚信，称中国（包括印 度）为新兴市场是错误的， 他比较赞同“成长市场”这 一说法。 中国和印度这些国家，目 前正在从榨取劳动力的经济 和引资市场，调整转型成为 更成熟的自给自足市场，如 何解释他们华丽转身，迅猛 发展消费市场取得的巨大成 功呢？ 目前仍存在着一些问题。 现在，经济学家几乎都认为 人均年收入超过10,000美元的 国家几乎不可能采取独裁主 义体制，除非其商品资源丰 富（可能会挽救俄罗斯和哈 萨克斯坦的“体制”，但姑 且存疑）。中产阶级要求变 得更高—俄罗斯人均年收入 目前已高达15,000美元 （购买力平价方面），但俄 罗斯有着丰富的矿产、石油 和天然气收入。中国目前年

人均收入为7,500美元，增 长迅速，但并没有如此丰富 的自然资源可依靠。当然， 中国政府也可能再一次反市 场潮流而行，继续发展，而 不做任何改变。不过话说 回来，中国也可能不会这样 做，而且O’ Neil也没有真正地 考虑此状况。 新泻经营大学教授Ivan Tselichtchev即将推出一本 雄心勃勃的书 —《中国对 战西方：21世纪的全球实力 大转移》。这本书论述了制 造业、环境、财政和经济等 方面。除非你是在十年前既 无网络、电视也无电子图书 的环境中生活，你完全不需 要Tselichtchev来告诉你， 发生了西方到东方的实力转 移和中国制造了大量产品。 然而，Tselichtchev做了进 一步的研究，并认为中国经 济可能比大部分的西方国家 结构更好且宏观经济更强。 这个论点需要大量证据来 支持。 Tselichtchev是否能证明 自己引发众怒的言论呢？ 这要从两方面来说。一方 面，Tselichtchev确实论证 了集中控制经济政策的主要 方面，以及中国公有制和私 有制相结合方式的可行性， 也承认生活在一个拥有大陆 型经济且能将自身标准加诸 于外界竞争对手的国家是一 个“优势”。中国目前尚未 严重“膨胀”，1997年以前

我们也这么描述东南亚。许 多人认为争论已经远远超过 Tselichtchev论及之处。书中 很少提到中国迄今为止严重 的创新能力不足，以及创业 率下降和私营领域创造就业 机会的问题，这些都是中国 目前议论较多的事情。最值 得担忧的是，Tselichtchev将 自己大部分的理论建立在中 国作为杰出制造大国的地位 上。很多作者也写到过，这

是由于中国在人口基数方面 的“最佳优势”。然而经过 34年的计划生育政策，这个 优势目前正逐渐减弱。制造 力正向印度、孟加拉国和越 南转移。Tselichtchev根据中 国制造大国地位而总结出的 实力，是否也应随之转移? 如同之前的预言一样，对 于O’ Neil和Tselichtchev的论 点，时间将证明一切，我们 拭目以待。

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意见 ■ ■ ■

亲爱的，你觉得怎样？ 如何在最近的航运衰退时期生存，取决于在繁荣时期如何生存，Bei Hong 撰稿 当时买兰博基尼基时似乎是 个好主意 — 虽然现在只能委 屈它在停车场里积尘。作为权 力和成功的象征，其夸张的造 型亦反映出截至2008年中那段 疯狂的日子内人们赚钱赚得有 多离谱，好像只要是会用电话 的人都可以成为船舶经纪人， 并且拥有点石成金，搞定大 型交易的好手气。原来每月只 需签发佣金发票的简单工作， 现在变成船东考虑是否要花费 数月去抓数月未付租金的承租 人。当律师询问达成协议前对 合约对方做了什么尽职调查 时，“他是我同学”这一回答 无济于事。 发生所有经济衰退和纠纷 时，唯一可以肯定的赢家就是 律师。因此，也许在我们可以 预料的今年众多的颁奖典礼 中，(虽然 SinoShip已承诺不举 办) 会有一个典礼评出的年度 人物是一名青年律师。他放弃 了光鲜亮丽的企业财务部，拼 命钻研海牙维斯比规则和航运 法律的其他古怪内容，现在成 了航运业最需要的人，比那些 仍在“开门营业”的银行家抢

手多了。 这是“改变游戏规则”的 大动作，在经济繁荣时期看来 似乎是一件好事。值得回忆 的是70年代订购超级油轮的浪 潮，它以Seawise Giant和一批 巨型油轮(VLCC)的问世到达顶 峰，前者是最大的人造移动物 体，后者从船厂开出来就被直 接闲置，因为当时石油公司已 意识到要控制运费成本不需要 控制大型船队 — 船东的自 大、以及针对这种自大中东政 治下的一剂猛药，更令人记忆 犹新。

要的船舶的拥有者。律师再一 次成为了赢家。 另一个“改变游戏规则” 的东西当属在市场高峰期推出 的 40万吨散货船。这到底是终 极的狂傲典范还是明智的商业 决策，评论界尚无定论，但是 某处某人似乎忘记了叫重要的 人。当中国采取相当欧化的邻 避(NIMBY)策略时，Vale被迫 将Chinamax改名为Valemax， 很明显此举是中国为了维护本 国船东的利益，Vale充当向其 主要市场运输铁矿石的高效“ 列车”的梦想现在已然破碎。

现在航运业最需要的人是律师 21世纪以中国造船业争当 世界老大拉开序幕，这个目标 按照中国事事提前的惯例，在 2010年之前已经实现。但这真 的是一个好主意吗？当然有志 成为最盈利、最高效的造船公 司应该算是一个崇高的事业。 随着订单被取消，小船厂面临 倒闭，造船厂将改变其商业模 式，成为其建造的、现在没人

这里没有否认这个超级巨轮背 后存在经济逻辑，但中国对 “传统”航运业在铁矿石进口 方面的持续依赖 — 至少目前 如此 — 毫无疑问让传统的中 小型船东松了一口气，甚至还 可能促使他们回到中国船厂购 买更多船只。哦，天哪 — 莫 非整个循环又要重新启动了 么？

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■ ■ ■ 意见

北京和上海的困境 Li Deng Bai 思考受低迷形势打击的中国人的"困境中的奢华" 在这个萧条动荡的时代，有 时很难回忆起2006年促使我从 美国回到祖国时的牛市盛况。 在中国海事金融领域六年的打 拼让我更年长、更聪明，而 没有更有钱（虽然我的衬衫仍 完整无损，这点或许尚比人 强）— 最后带着满腹经历， 我终于听我母亲的意见，回到 洛杉矶经营家族企业。 在中国工作的过去十年实 际上是基于一种狂热 — 对于 日益白热化的航运市场丰厚利 润的狂热。 我记得曾有个干散货管理 人员告诉我，他的老板出资邀 请他们整个租船和经管团队到 墨尔本的一艘超级游艇上开 会 — 显然价值不菲的租费 还不到那时一次航运所得的利 润。如果经营得当，我记得一 个上海经纪人在高尔夫球场上 遇到我时跟我说他当时一单海 峡型航行的佣金在200,000美元 以上，而这样的生意他一个月 就有五单。数百万美元的奖金 在流动，中国航运界沉浸在香 槟、智能汽车和高档歌厅提供 的愉悦之中。 就我自己的经营情况看， 要是按照我在为新的亚洲航运 巨头们铺设红地毯上花费的时 间和金钱来算，估计我都可 以拿到澳门葡京的永久居住 权了。 真正的戏剧性事件并非出 现在万事太平之时，而是在 2008年市场坠崖，整个大厦轰 然倒地之际。人们如何应对低 迷的局势真是不可预见。

由中国从前的铁矿石公主 陈宁宁(Diana Chen)控制的贸易 实体Pioneer Metals就是一个很 好的例子。2008年初，陈宁宁 在出席香港的一个宴会时称她 认为自己将在五年内成为世界 上最富有的人。这是一个始终 自我感觉良好的女人，我永远 不会忘记她以客座嘉宾身份参 加 Klaveness船在日本下水仪 式的情形。她认为像她这种身 份的人不必担心签证问题，但 一到成田机场就立刻被拘留。 大发雷霆之后，船厂方面动用 关系让她参加了下水仪式。 世界经济掉链子之后，Pioneer Metals，这一中国在贸易方面 取得成功的标志，突然发现自 己暴露在大量的实物贸易和衍 生品贸易中。根据大报小报传 来的消息，Pioneer因未能履行 远期运费协议 (FFA) 而招致诉 讼，此外还拖欠如BHP等公司 数百万的矿石费。后来有一篇 文章称该公司已清盘，倒闭时 名下只有两台小货车和约5,500 元港币的现金。我们只能假设 陈女士尚未沦落到住小货车的 地步。 还有一个不那么夸张的 例子 — 大新华物流(Grand China Logistics)传奇。这是一 个真正的中国改革后时代的故 事 — 那些坚信中国一定会以 闪电般的速度发展的人进行的 大肆支出与投资。在欧洲巨额 赤字和国有化银行经营不良的 日子里，人们忘记了过去30年 里中国既有银行系统失败又有 赤字问题，赤字超过其国内生

在中国工作的过去十年实际上是 基于一种狂热 38

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产总值不止一次。 从中国抽身而退似乎并不 会对人的生活方式造成负面影 响。一个以南京为基地的经营 商曾因FFA交易失败而歇业， 据说现在住在有保镖看守的豪 华别墅，前门停着阿斯顿·马 丁豪车。事实上，据说昔日航 运大户富顺公司(Glory Wealth) 的一个董事，已经对该公司崩 盘之后的超级富豪狩猎活动表 示关注。而香港的一个花花公 子/失败的船东最近试图在法 兰克福证券交易所投资私人飞 机。所有这一切对我成为这场 世界最大的直播节目中的外围 一员贡献良多，对此我无法口 出怨言。

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需要更多 灵感闪现 Manish Singh 认为，随着其国际航运级别的攀升， 中国必须进一步创新 中国在航运创新方面贡献 良多，可以追溯到很久以前发 明诸如磁罗盘或前/后帆桁等 基本的推动因子，甚至还有早 期的船尾柱舵轮等等。 近年来，中国在国际贸易 领域做出了突出贡献，已经跃 升为海上强国，拥有充当人 才资源库的潜力和看似取用 不竭的基础设施容量。 规模空前的造船计划为推 动中国成为世界海上战略目 标发挥了关键作用，它面临 的不是停滞的市场需求，该 计划本身就严重依赖于中国 巨大的影响力。 很多国际企业都希望通过 继续提供符合中国要求的服 务来刺激中国的新需求。不 过，在航运领域，也需要中国 航运发挥自己的力量，刺激全 球新需求，将其近几年取得 的增长持续保持下去。 运量萎缩或停滞，想要维 持中国通过大力投资航运业 而获取的发展势头，技术创 新、拥有开发并提供新的国 际解决方案的能力至关重要。 一些怀疑论者经常将中国适 应西方创意的行为视为山寨 或纯粹模仿。最近的例子让 这些怀疑论者反思，事实证 明，基于其发展速度，这种 看似拙劣的模仿能迅速适应 新技术并把其推向市场。然 而，这些创意往往是即兴的、 或是根据经验改善产品的商 业用途的。对于航运方面到 底有多大创新，大家意见不 一，但在船只或部件建造质 量方面确实有所改善。 中国追求增长，在建造能 力和相关基础设施发展方面

下了很大力气，不久之前爆 满的订货簿和疯狂的造船活 动就得益于此。中国造船企 业受惠国家在这一领域的结 构性广泛投资，迅速满足标 准吨位最低价格的需求，占 有市场份额。 基于广泛的投资和对相关 集群发展的政策扶持，市场份 额有所增长，但中国航运业在 发展国内专业知识及维持如 此增长水平所需的丰富的人力 资源方面还相对落后。 造船领域已经发生了翻天 覆地的变化，有观点认为降低 资产生命期间的经营船舶成 本，将优先于降低建设成本。 有迹象明显表明中国航运 业已经认识到这一点，涌现 出很多关注绿色设计和节能 船只的案例。这方面，中国 也许能够迅速抢占一席之地， 基于其丰富的资源，能以更 快的速度为市场提供新的绿色 解决方案和技术。最近几年

降低资产生命期间的经营船舶成本， 优先于降低建设成本 大肆造船，导致很多很多资 源从维修和支持部门出来， 添加到建造能力方面。在今后 的岁月里，可以从这些资源 中抽出一部分，用于推动创新 设计与技术，在交付方面打 造更为成熟的供应链。 在发展技术能力的同时， 也要大力投资提升金融、商 业和教育能力。 中国拥有庞大的资源库可

以不断输送新人才，在为长期 供给不足的全球市场输送人力 资源方面处于令人羡慕的位 置。这也对我们提出了一些新 的创新要求，有必要与来自 成熟市场的知名品牌合作，加 速学习过程，促进本地知识发 展。中国企业的高减员率也意 味着同工同酬 — 如同一种 以创新谋发展的文化 — 将 有助于留住人才。

Sinoship 2012年春季刊

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■ ■ ■ PHOTO FINISH HIGH FIVE Work nears completion on a 35,000 dwt bulker at Jiangmen Shipyard 江门船厂一艘35,000 dwt 散货船即将完工

© André Eichman

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PHOTO FINISH ■ ■ ■

Sinoship SPRING 2012

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