Decarbonising Aviation: An 8-Point Manifesto

ONTENT

DECARBONISING AVIATION

2

CONTENTS

INTRODUCTION

4

8-POINT MANIFESTO FOR THE AVIATION INDUSTRY TO DECARBONISE

8

1. TIE GROWTH TO SUSTAINABILITY

9

2. COMBINE INCENTIVES AND MANDATES

10

3. APPLY "THE POLLUTER PAYS" PRINCIPLE AS A "CLEAN SKIES FUND" 4. FOCUS ON GLOBAL EQUITY, INCLUDING THE “GLOBAL SOUTH” 5. ENSURE AVIATION DOESN’T TAKE MORE THAN ITS FAIR SHARE 6. EMPHASISE TRANSPARENCY, ACCOUNTABILITY, AND TARGETS 7. ENCOURAGE INDUSTRY COOPERATION AND KNOWLEDGE SHARING 8. THE EVENTUAL GOAL SHOULD BE TRUE ZERO, NOT NET ZERO

12

THE ALTERNATIVES THE EROSION OF AVIATION’S SOCIAL LICENSE WHAT CAN YOU DO AS AN INDIVIDUAL TRAVELLER?

13 14 15 15 16

18 19 19

SUSTAINABILITY IN THE AIR - THE PODCAST

24

SUSTAINABILITY IN THE AIR - THE BOOK

25

WHAT CAN WE DO FOR YOU

26

3

DECARBONISING AVIATION

INTRODUCTION

4

INTRODUCTION

INTRODUCTION AIR TRAVEL HAS MADE THE WORLD SMALLER. WE WANT TO PRESERVE THIS FOR FUTURE GENERATIONS Mobility, as expressed through air travel, is a force for good. It has enabled millions of people to live, love and learn in places different – and often far – from where they grew up.

In fact, many of the inventions and innovations of modern life we all take for granted became possible because someone somewhere got on a plane.

Here’s one example. Perhaps you found this content via a Google search. If so, you have Sergey Brin to thank.

Brin left his native Russia to go to the USA and became one of the two founders of Google along with Larry Page. The current CEO of Google’s parent company, Alphabet Inc, is likewise someone who is where he is thanks to air travel - Indian-American Sundar Pichai.

Or perhaps you were one of the many who received a life-saving mRNA vaccine during the COVID pandemic. Would mRNA as a technology have existed had Dr Katalin Karikó not gotten on a plane with her husband and two-year-old daughter in 1985, leaving Hungary to take up an academic position in the USA? While Dr Karikó is credited as the inventor of MRNA, the first MRNA COVID vaccine on the market at the end of 2020 came from BioNTech’s Ugur Sahin and Özlem Türeci, whose parents left their native Turkey to go to Germany.

Source: Boeing

We don’t want to turn the clock back to a time when air travel was the preserve of those with lots of time and money, the inevitable consequence of widespread curbs on flying.

We want even more people to enjoy its benefits so that we get many more Sergey Brins or Katalin Karikós.

At the same time, future generations won’t be able to enjoy those benefits if climate change makes large parts of the planet uninhabitable.

This comes as the industry is increasingly in the spotlight due to its growing share of greenhouse gas emissions. If left unchecked, its global share could grow from around 3% in 2023 to over 20% by 2050.

5

DECARBONISING AVIATION

Many airlines are making the right noises when it comes to decarbonisation, but climate activists by and large treat this with scepticism. They point out that the industry has made similar grand-sounding promises in the past, which were then subsequently almost always either watered down or dropped completely.

For example, a 2009 IATA discussion document said that “green fuels is not a simple task, but a must!”, before proposing a target of 10% alternative fuels / SAF to be used as a total proportion of jet fuel by 2017.

Needless to say, the industry is nowhere near that target. Even in a climate-aware region like the European Union, SAF represents less than 0.5% of total fuel use.

Meanwhile, the industry faces a credibility crisis, with many climate groups pointing out that airlines have made grand-sounding sustainability promises in the past, which were for the most part either watered down or dropped completely.

The problem – credibility and growing emissions As a result, coinciding with the launch of our new book ‘Sustainability in the Air’, we are publishing an eight-point manifesto for the aviation industry to decarbonise.

Our eight-point challenge for aviation is as follows:

1

Tie growth to sustainability

2

Combine incentives and mandates

3

Apply the "polluter pays principle" as a "clean skies" fund

4

Focus on global equity, including the "Global South"

5

Ensure aviation doesn’t take more than its fair share

6

Emphasise transparency, accountability, and targets

Encourage cooperation and knowledge-sharing

Ultimately aim for true zero, not net zero

We address each of these points in more detail in this report.

Dirk Singer Head of Sustainability, SimpliFlying dirk@simpliflying.com

6

7

DECARBONISING AVIATION

8-POINT MANIFESTO

8

8-POINT MANIFESTO

8-POINT MANIFESTO FOR THE AVIATION INDUSTRY TO DECARBONISE 1. TIE GROWTH TO SUSTAINABILITY We are not degrowth advocates. We don’t want to stop people flying. Instead, we want to widen the benefits of mobility expressed through air travel to even more people.

However, industries can’t just be given a blank cheque to grow if that growth comes with serious climate side effects. This applies to any industry, not just aviation.

First of all, we propose taking a step back. What is the problem? Air travel? No, in itself it is not the problem. Instead, flying while emitting greenhouse gases is. These two elements need to be separated.

Growth needs to be tied to sustainability targets. In simple terms, as the number of flights goes up, aviation’s emissions need to go down. This is also generally known as ‘decoupling.’

Further, this needs to happen in absolute and not relative terms.

We’ve seen some in the industry fall back on statistics like per-seat CO2 emissions. These statistics are meaningless if airlines then use those efficiencies to fly more people to more places by burning a larger share of fossil fuels.

One practical step towards this goal is to tie new aeroplane orders explicitly to Sustainable Aviation Fuel (SAF), ensuring an immediate impact on the journey towards sustainability. At the same time, there needs to be more investment in next-generation propulsion systems such as hydrogen, electric etc.

9

DECARBONISING AVIATION

2. COMBINE INCENTIVES AND MANDATES In the book we talk about the enormous $4-5 trillion cost that the industry will bear in order to decarbonise. At the same time, only 16% of wider climate tech funding needs are currently being met.

Consequently, there are a lot of excellent decarbonisation ideas – which in some cases could be truly revolutionary – that remain on the drawing board because of a lack of funding.

These innovators and entrepreneurs need help.

Unfortunately, the airline industry does not have the ability to carry that on its own.

Though many airlines are indeed profitable, they are not profitable to the extent that they can transform sixty years' worth of aviation fossil-fuel-based technology in the space of one or two decades. In fact, margins are very thin, with IATA estimating that profits work out at $2.25 per passenger.

This is why the participation of both the private sector and governments is crucial.

To spur investments in net-zero technologies worldwide, we propose the implementation of incentives akin to the

10

US Inflation Reduction Act or support for next-generation aircraft such as expressed through France’s 2030 roadmap.

However, these incentives should run in tandem with mandates that drive the industry away from reliance on fossil fuels.

In this way, we can combine the "carrot" of incentives and the "stick" of mandates to create a powerful mechanism for change.

Mandates are needed to provide targets and also a level playing field - if every airline has to achieve (e.g.) X% SAF use by a certain date, then there is no way one can try and gain a commercial advantage over competitors by continuing to rely on cheaper kerosene.

At the same time, as emphasised by ATAG's Haldane Dodd in the book, mandates alone make little sense if there is no viable path to meet them. Hence, this balanced approach paves the way for effective and tangible progress.

To conclude this point, we’d like to address the question of ‘why aviation?’ Why should aviation benefit from a support and incentive package?

8-POINT MANIFESTO

We’d put forward two reasons for this.

•

As mentioned in the previous section, air travel has transformed the modern world and offers numerous cultural, societal and economic benefits. It should be preserved for future generations.

•

But there’s a wider and possibly more important point that we’d make. If you fund technologies to decarbonise aviation there’s potential to decarbonise other industries as well.

Take hydrogen. Yes, airlines will need green hydrogen and lots of it. It’s a key component of so-called e-fuels, and some manufacturers are looking to use it as an alternative aircraft fuel source.

But green hydrogen also has uses in industries as diverse as shipping to steel. As a result, instead of the argument that aviation might take a too big piece of the green hydrogen cake, we believe that it could be instrumental in actually creating a bigger cake.

Similarly, electric aircraft need better and more energy-efficient batteries to become truly viable. The development of those batteries won’t just benefit the aviation industry. There will be multiple other benefits, for example in storing energy from renewables. Essentially, better batteries have a wide range of benefits that will accrue not just to aviation.

11

DECARBONISING AVIATION

3. APPLY THE “POLLUTER PAYS” PRINCIPLE AS A “CLEAN SKIES FUND” India is the world’s largest aviation growth market. The vast majority of the population has not yet flown. But many want to. Who are we to say they can’t, given that they are for the most part not responsible for aviation’s greenhouse gas problem?

Here we advocate following the ‘polluter pays’ principle. This holds the responsible parties accountable for their climate impact and its prevention.

In aviation, we can apply this principle through two approaches.

•1 First, while implementing carbon taxes on airlines, we should strike a balance between acknowledging aviation's environmental impact and ensuring fairness without jeopardising airlines' viability.

•2 Second, we should explore contributions from those who fly the most. The most common proposal here is through so-called frequent flyer surcharges. For example, the ICCT has put forward a Frequent Flyer Levy proposal. It says that if adopted industry-wide, it could cover a substantial 80% of decarbonisation costs.

We support the principle but propose reframing it.

Instead of labelling it as a tax or levy, which is punitive, we envision it as a “clean skies fund”, which is a positive step to pay for progress.

This could take the form of a small surcharge on flight tickets, akin to fuel surcharges used in response to oil price fluctuations, with those who fly the most paying more. The funds raised would be transparently invested in green technologies or pooled into a sustainability fund.

Notably, flights operated by aircraft featuring new technologies would be exempt from these charges, creating an additional incentive for the development of greener alternatives.

12

8-POINT MANIFESTO

4. FOCUS ON GLOBAL EQUITY, INCLUDING THE “GLOBAL SOUTH” While much focus has been on aviation decarbonisation efforts in the so-called Global North, particularly in Europe and North America, it's essential to recognise that industry growth comes from emerging markets.

As a result, industry-wide decarbonisation needs to have more of a focus on the Middle East, the Indian subcontinent, the Far East, Latin America and Africa.

To address this, we propose a number of steps.

•1 SAF feedstocks indigenous to the Global South should be developed. For instance, the UAE and its national airline Etihad have supported SAF production from the resource-efficient Salicornia plant. This plant requires no arable land and no fresh water.

According to Dr Alejandro Rios, director and chief research scientist at Abu Dhabi’s Sustainable Bioenergy Research Consortium (SBRC), there are 25.5 million square kilometres of desert and arid fields around the world with access to brackish or salt water.

Only a small proportion of that would need to be given over to cultivation and production for it to make a significant positive impact on global SAF stocks.

•3 Accelerating initiatives like these require the support of Western investors and capital. For example, with countries like India promoting green hydrogen while also seeing huge aviation growth there is scope for a lot of e-fuels companies to set up facilities in the region.

The global nature of greenhouse gas emissions makes it evident that progress in the Global South will benefit everyone, regardless of their geographical location.

Embracing these opportunities will pave the way for a more inclusive and effective approach to decarbonising aviation.

•2 Green hydrogen production also presents significant opportunities as it can be used both in e-fuels and as a direct aircraft fuel source. Both the UAE and India are actively aiming to become green hydrogen hubs, with India targeting production of 5 MMT (Million Metric Tonnes) per annum by 2030.

13

DECARBONISING AVIATION

5. ENSURE AVIATION DOESN’T TAKE MORE THAN ITS FAIR We are aware of the environmental concerns about the resource intensity of aviation decarbonisation solutions. This includes the demand for land to cultivate fuel crops for SAF and the renewable resources required for e-fuels.

For e-fuels, German VC Fund World Energy has estimated the following: Using current technologies to replace 8% of European aviation fuel with e-fuel in 2040 would require about 140 TWh/yr of electricity. This is roughly equivalent to the entire electricity consumption of Sweden or the Netherlands.

As a result: •1 Investments should prioritise SAF pathways that consume less energy and resources. Air Company is one example of an E-Fuels company which says it has disrupted the traditional FischerTropsch method of making synthetic fuels, and is twice as efficient

•2 Additionally, it is important to explore more efficient approaches to green hydrogen development as well, such as by utilising next-generation electrolysers. It’s worth noting that there are a number of companies with promising technologies in the works, such as Australia’s Hysata, and Singapore’s SunGreenH2.

By making thoughtful choices about sustainable solutions, the aviation sector can play its part in the global push for net zero without undue strain on valuable resources.

14

8-POINT MANIFESTO

6. EMPHASISE TRANSPARENCY, ACCOUNTABILITY, AND TARGETS In the past, the airline industry has faced accusations of making ambitious sustainability claims that were either delayed or quietly shelved This has resulted in an erosion of trust.

To regain that trust, airlines must prioritise practicality and feasibility in their net-zero roadmaps. Transparency is key, with sustainability programmes clearly outlining how airlines plan to achieve their goals and timelines.

To ensure accountability, independent third-party verification through organisations like SBTi should be encouraged.

Targets also need to be published, with an annual report card from airlines showing how successful they have been in meeting those targets.

7. ENCOURAGE INDUSTRY COOPERATION AND KNOWLEDGE SHARING In our book, we highlight the Sustainable Flight Challenge, through which the SkyTeam airline alliance emphasises and encourages knowledge sharing and collaboration among airlines in order to progress in their sustainability goals.

Another instance of cooperation can be seen in JetBlue and Hawaiian Airlines joining the United Airlines Sustainable Flight Fund. This initiative allows organisations in the travel and aerospace sectors to pool their resources to invest in and purchase SAF. The enormity of aviation's impact on the climate demands a unified effort, and no single player can tackle it alone.

By combining capabilities and know-how, the industry can transcend isolated islands of effort. Collective power is the key to paving the way for a greener and more sustainable future for aviation.

15

DECARBONISING AVIATION

8. THE EVENTUAL GOAL SHOULD BE TRUE ZERO, NOT NET ZERO

In the medium term, SAF needs to be the primary decarbonisation solution, given that it works with the tens of thousands of aircraft flying today.

Even so, emphasising the adoption of alternative fuels that yield maximum life cycle CO2 reduction, such as those being developed by Air Company, Twelve and others is imperative wherever possible.

In the long term, our vision is for electric and hydrogen-powered planes to be developed and utilised to their full potential.

As highlighted by entrepreneurs such as Val Miftakhov of ZeroAvia and Paul Eremenko of Universal Hydrogen, the use of these aircraft will usher in a true-zero future where aviation has next to no climate impact, steering us toward an environmentally-friendlier era of air travel.

Source: Universal Hydrogen

16

17

DECARBONISING AVIATION

THE ALTERNATIVES

18

THE ALTERNATIVES

THE ALTERNATIVES THE EROSION OF AVIATION’S SOCIAL LICENSE What happens if we don’t accelerate the pace of decarbonisation? If we fail to take decisive steps, others will take charge. Policymakers will implement flight restrictions and reductions, responding to public demands for action against climate change's increasing impact on society.

In such a future, air travel will be perceived as a social ill by various segments of the public – akin to alcohol or tobacco consumption.

Happily, the many interviews we conducted for our book have shown that there is a way forward. However, we’re also sitting in the last chance saloon. To get out of this situation, decarbonisation efforts have to be scaled up without delay.

Source: Stay Grounded / Julien Helaine

WHAT CAN YOU DO AS AN INDIVIDUAL TRAVELLER? For many people, aviation is likely the biggest portion of their personal carbon footprint, especially for frequent flyers. Even so, there are a number of things we can do to lower our individual carbon footprints while sending a message to the industry based on our travel habits.

They are: 1. Ration the number of long-haul flights you take.

2. Combine trips and take work-ations.

3. Fly on new aircraft when you can.

4. Fly non-stop.

5. Offset with SAF or carbon capture where possible.

6. Take the train for shorter trips.

7. Be more sustainable when you fly.

19

DECARBONISING AVIATION

1

RATION THE NUMBER OF LONG-HAUL FLIGHTS YOU TAKE

When flying from London to New York, our carbon footprint becomes higher than the annual average for people in 56 countries.

Unfortunately, long-haul flights are also the hardest to decarbonise. Potential solutions like Heart Aerospace’s electric aircraft will not address long-haul flights, and hydrogen solutions for long-haul travel are decades away.

As a result, if you’re looking to dramatically reduce your own carbon footprint, think about the number of long-haul flights you take. Is your journey necessary? Could you combine any work and holiday trips?

2

COMBINE TRIPS AND TAKE WORK-ATIONS

If you have to fly long-haul, why not combine a work trip with a vacation? This has come to be known as blended travel, where the traditional boundaries of business and leisure are blurred.

There has been a significant rise in blended travel since the end of the pandemic, with more people taking longer trips to combine work and pleasure—and doing so can result in taking fewer trips per year.

3

FLY IN A NEW AIRCRAFT WHEN YOU CAN

Modern aircraft are lighter since they’re often made with composite materials and hence burn less fuel. They are also often equipped with newer engines that can be up to 20% more efficient than older models.

When booking a flight, look up what model aircraft you'll be flying on via your airline's website, or use a search tool like Google Flights that discloses the carbon footprint of your flight. Whenever possible, try to fly on newer aircraft.

4

FLY NON-STOP

While multi-stop itineraries may yield more status miles in frequent flyer programs and are sometimes cheaper, most of them result in additional and avoidable emissions. In most cases, flying non-stop is less carbon-intensive. Moreover, as much as 17% of a flight’s fuel burn happens when it is taxiing for take-off, which is also limited by flying non-stop.

20

THE ALTERNATIVES

5

OFFSET WITH SAF OR CARBON CAPTURE WHERE POSSIBLE

On our Sustainability in the Air podcast, United Airlines CEO Scott Kirby said that it would be impossible to plant enough trees to offset all CO2 emissions caused by human activities.

When you choose to offset your travels, consider flying on aircraft that use SAF to have the greatest impact—whether by indirectly reducing the emissions of a future flight or because the fuel was produced by taking CO2 out of the air via carbon capture.

6

TAKE TRAINS FOR SHORTER TRIPS

In 2023, France banned short-haul flights where a train alternative of 2.5 hours or less exists.

In most cases, travelling by train results in fewer emissions than travelling by plane, so travellers should look for these options whenever possible. Airlines like KLM already offer train+plane itineraries, allowing travellers to travel to destinations via a combination of train and air to lower their total carbon emissions.

BE MORE SUSTAINABLE WHEN YOU FLY Even if the best options aren't always available, travellers can still reduce their carbon footprint when they fly by doing the following: •

Think about whether you need the in-flight meal (and let the airline know ahead of time). Less food waste goes a long way since the airline also gets to load less food

•

Don’t check bags. Less weight carried means less fuel burned.

•

Take public transport to and from the airport. Most major airports have good public transportation options to the city centre or beyond.

•

Stay in an eco-friendly hotel. Many hotels today have an eco rating on sites like Booking.com. Try to find out what sustainability efforts your hotel is pursuing to make your stay more sustainable.

Source: HotelsCombined

21

DECARBONISING AVIATION

In addition to all the above, there are some of us who can do much more than others to reduce aviation's climate impact. If this sounds like you, consider the following: •

If you are a senior aviation executive...

Why not leave your settled job with the generous benefits and join a fledgling technology company that can help catalyse aviation's journey towards sustainability?

As we've shown in this book, many new aviation technology companies were started by founders with little or no aviation experience.

Senior aviation executives can potentially make the biggest impact of their careers by sharing their knowledge with new sustainability-oriented startups to help them scale.

After all, what would be more fulfilling: taking a fifth annual flight to Orlando from Europe or working on technology that can potentially make travel greener?

•

If you can’t leave your role yet…

We understand that many things need to fall in place to leave a position that has taken up most of one's life. Even so, those who can't leave their jobs can still make an impact by joining growth-stage sustainable aviation companies as advisors, board members, or even personal mentors or angel/seedinvestors to the founders. As we've seen, aviation executives often underestimate the value of their industry experience.

•

If you work in technology or with a large consulting company…

It's time to move on from products or roles that are squeezing out 0.1% operational efficiencies. Instead, start a project or lead a product that can help make an outsized impact of 10% or more than current technologies in aviation.

•

If you are an engineering student…

Work on technologies that aren't prevalent in the industry yet but have the potential to help aviation reach true zero rather than simply net zero. Since you have an entire career ahead of you, use it to work with companies that are shifting the landscape rather than simply trying to fit in and do more of the same.

22

THE ALTERNATIVES

•

If you are an aviation student…

Start a club or a society at your institution that explores sustainable options for travel.

Do an internship with an organisation making big and bold bets on sustainability, be it JetBlue aiming for net zero by 2040 or SkyTeam encouraging a greener culture of aviation today.

When you graduate, don’t automatically go for the most prestigious brand or the airline with the most travel benefits. Instead, find the sustainability innovator of your region and help them invent a future that benefits future generations in more ways than one.

•

If you are a politician…

Enact legislation that encourages the development of sustainable aviation. These measures can be mandates like those that already exist for SAF in the European Union or incentives like those found in the USA's Inflation Reduction Act. Each of these will help future generations travel in more sustainable ways—an impact that will go a long way in leaving a legacy that outlasts your term.

23

WANT TO KNOW MORE?

Listen to more insights on our podcast

Hosted by SimpliFlying CEO and Founder Shashank Nigam, Sustainability in the Air is the world’s leading sustainable aviation podcast.

Over the past year, guests have included Scott Kirby (United Airlines), Amelia DeLuca (Delta Air Lines), Tony Douglas (formerly Etihad, now Riyadh Air), Yvonne Moynihan (Wizz Air) Val Miftakhov (ZeroAvia), Sheila Remes (Boeing), Anders Forslund (Heart Aerospace) and Amy Burr (JetBlue Ventures).

Listen and subscribe to the podcast here:

green.simpliflying.com/podcast

See other episodes

Meanwhile, our Sustainability in the Air website includes weekly articles on sustainable aviation tech startups; reports on subjects as diverse as SAF and eVTOLs; and regular newsletters read by thousands of industry professionals to understand the ever-evolving space of sustainable aviation and the industry’s potential pathways to net zero by 2050.

SUBSCRIBE 24

SUSTAINABILITY IN THE AIR - THE BOOK

Meet the pioneers of sustainable aviation Climate change concerns are making the aviation industry turn to sustainable aviation fuel (SAF), electric, and hydrogen-powered aircraft to cut emissions. However, scaling these technologies requires significant innovation.

Sustainability in the Air highlights the journeys of entrepreneurs, executives, and investors who are navigating these challenges and paving the way for the future of aviation.

GET YOUR COPY

25

WHAT CAN WE DO FOR YOU?

Over the past fifteen years, SimpliFlying has worked with over 100 airlines and airports globally to help build trust in travel. We have also helped various technology companies scale up within aviation.

Here are some ways we can help you in making the future of travel more sustainable: 1

Share your vision via our podcast Let your CEO be interviewed by Shashank Nigam and share your vision for a sustainable future for travel on Sustainability In the Air. Find out more on becoming a partner.

2

Build thought leadership through bespoke reports We can help you build thought leadership on a particular topic that you'd like to "own". Check out a sample report we did with a partner recently.

3

Grow your brand in aviation SimpliFlying has helped a multitude of technology firms scale up in aviation.

From launching an airplane to marketing an Airbus A380 engine. We can help you simplify your brand and help build awareness with key decision makers.

Get in touch!

26