Visions of the future: transportation and logistics 2030

FRAUNHOFER-INSTITUT FÃœR MATERIALFLUSS UND LOGISTIK, IML DAIMLER AG DB MOBILITY LOGISTICS AG

VISIONS OF THE FUTURE: TRANSPORTATION AND LOGISTICS 2030

VISIONS OF THE FUTURE: TRANSPORTATION AND LOGISTICS 2030 EXAMINING THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF ROAD AND RAIL TRANSPORTATION TO 2030 February 2014

Responsible Prof. Dr.-Ing. Uwe Clausen, Fraunhofer Institut für Materialfluß und Logistik (IML) & Institut für Transportlogistik (ITL), Technische Universität Dortmund, Director, Josephvon-Fraunhofer-Straße 2-4, 44227 Dortmund Klaus-Dieter Holloh, Daimler AG, Head of Advanced Engineering, Daimler Trucks, TP/VE – T330, 70546 Stuttgart Michael Kadow, DB Mobility Logistics AG, Vice President Business Excellence DB Schenker, Edmund-Rumpler-Straße 3, 60549 Frankfurt am Main

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Visions of the Future: Transportation and Logistics 2030

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Summary

Status quo and purpose With a focus on road and rail freight, we examine and develop scenarios for the future based on innovative and sustainable transportation systems in the context of growing transport volumes. These scenarios require no more than minor changes to infrastructure.

As well as identifying global trends, influential factors and effects on the efficiency of transportation, we describe various solutions capable of tackling future challenges and fulfilling the target requirements set.

Future scenario and efficient transportation Based on global trends and target requirements, we develop nine future scenarios that we then combine into a final future scenario. These highlight solutions for ensuring efficient transportation in future. 

Integrating systems to enable goods in transit to be monitored and managed in real time  Using infrastructure efficiently with intelligent traffic guidance systems  Safe and efficient transportation with driver assistance systems  Optimizing processes with intelligent freight cars  Low noise levels in city logistics with alternative propulsion and new logistics concepts  Using capacity efficiently with modular container design for small transport volumes  Consolidating transport volumes with multimodal integration of different modes of transport  Modern work environments to make the logistics industry more appealing  More environmentally friendly transportation with alternative vehicle and propulsion technologies The interaction of the nine future scenarios creates the overall picture of efficient transportation. The increase in digitization, in information flows before and during transport, and the ongoing development of vehicle and propulsion technologies, combined with networked assistance systems, are the prerequisites for efficient transport and competitive industries in Germany in the year 2030.

Efficient transportation 2030: Areas for action The future scenario we describe aims to achieve the objectives set and minimize impacts. It shows various areas for action that have been identified for efficient transportation in the year 2030. We categorize these into the three areas of innovation: digitization, technology and flexible management. While digitization enables optimized planning based on real-time data, improving technology leads to optimized, energy-efficient and safe processes. Flexible management supports collaboration within and between companies.

These areas for action and their potential synergies give rise to the vision of efficient transportation in the year 2030. Realizing this scenario for the future will require intensive and innovative research work in these areas.

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Visions of the Future: Transportation and Logistics 2030

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II

Contents

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I

Summary .................................................................................................... 3

II

Contents .................................................................................................... 4

1

Introduction ............................................................................................... 6

2

Developments influencing road and rail transportation....................... 7

1.1 1.1.1 1.1.2 1.1.3 1.1.4 1.2 1.2.1 1.2.2 1.2.3 1.2.4 1.3 1.3.1 1.3.2 1.3.3 1.4 1.4.1 1.4.2 1.4.3 1.4.4 1.5

Globalization ............................................................................................... 7 Global transport flows and developments .................................................... 7 Germany as Europe's logistics center ........................................................... 8 Freight traffic growth in Germany ................................................................ 9 Summary of the effects of globalization ....................................................... 10 Demographic change ................................................................................... 11 German population trend ............................................................................ 11 Development of the labor force in the logistics industry ............................... 12 Attractiveness of the workplace ................................................................... 12 Summary of the effects of demographic change .......................................... 14 Urbanization ................................................................................................ 14 Reurbanization ............................................................................................. 14 Social development and individualization ..................................................... 15 Summary of the effects of urbanization ....................................................... 16 Sustainability ................................................................................................ 16 Environmental sustainability ......................................................................... 16 Economic sustainability ................................................................................ 17 Social sustainability ...................................................................................... 17 Summary of the effects of sustainability ....................................................... 17 Resource scarcity .......................................................................................... 18

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Solutions .................................................................................................... 20

3.1 3.1.1 3.1.2 3.1.3 3.2 3.2.1 3.2.2 3.2.3 3.2.4 3.3 3.3.1 3.3.2 3.3.3 3.3.4 3.3.5 3.3.6

Digitization .................................................................................................. 20 Internet of Things ........................................................................................ 20 Intelligent traffic guidance systems .............................................................. 21 Intelligent freight cars .................................................................................. 22 Flexible management ................................................................................... 23 Quiet nighttime transport ............................................................................ 23 Integrating modes of transport and consolidating transport volumes ........... 23 Deceleration ................................................................................................ 24 Attractive workplace design ......................................................................... 24 Technology .................................................................................................. 25 Modular container construction ................................................................... 25 Automatic coupling ..................................................................................... 25 Waste heat utilization .................................................................................. 25 Autonomous assistance systems .................................................................. 26 Autonomous driving in rail transportation .................................................... 27 Alternative propulsion technologies ............................................................. 28

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Future scenarios 2030 ...............................................................................31

4.1

Integrating systems to enable goods in transit to be monitored and managed in real time...................................................................................................31 Using infrastructure efficiently with intelligent traffic guidance systems .......32 Safe and efficient transportation with driver assistance systems ...................33 Optimizing processes with intelligent freight cars .........................................34 Low noise levels in city logistics with alternative propulsion and new logistics concepts ......................................................................................................35 Using capacity efficiently with modular container design for small transport volumes ....................................................................................................... 36 Consolidating transport volumes with multimodal integration of different modes of transport ......................................................................................37 Modern work environments to make the logistics industry more appealing..38 More environmentally friendly transportation with alternative vehicle and propulsion technologies ...............................................................................39

4.2 4.3 4.4 4.5 4.6 4.7 4.8 4.9 5

Efficient transportation 2030 ...................................................................41

6

Areas for action .........................................................................................42

7

Literature ...................................................................................................43

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Visions of the Future: Transportation and Logistics 2030

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Introduction

1 Introduction The demand for freight transportation has been rising for many years at both national and global level. Existing transport volumes are already overloading today's infrastructure at difficult-to-expand bottlenecks. At the same time, population shifts are in evidence, indicating a growing number of people living in cities and metropolitan regions, while increasing individualization is another factor that will transform the logistics of tomorrow. These are just some of the trends that will intensify in the coming years, leading us to ask: How can Germany cope with transport volumes up to the year 2030 with its existing infrastructure?

To answer this question, the Fraunhofer Institute for Material Flow and Logistics (IML) has produced its "Visions of the Future: Transportation and Logistics 2030" study, initiated by Daimler and DB Schenker. The study highlights impacts and developments associated with the megatrends that have been identified – globalization, demographic change, urbanization, sustainability and resource scarcity – and presents approaches to solving these. It then places these in nine future scenarios that combine the potential synergies of the individual approaches and identify and describe the research needed in the years ahead. The scenarios show ways of meeting the challenges of tomorrow and increasing the efficiency of transportation while protecting the environment and safeguarding the supply of goods.

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Visions of the Future: Transportation and Logistics 2030

2 Developments influencing road and rail transportation

Developments influencing road and rail transportation

Focusing on road and rail transportation in Germany, this chapter presents the impacts and developments that have been identified and divides them into the five megatrends: globalization, demographic change, urbanization, sustainability and resource scarcity.

Alongside recent studies and publications, it draws upon expert industry knowledge taken from interviews and discussions. At the end of each section, it summarizes the key trends as a basis for developing solutions in chapter 3.

2.1

Globalization

Globalization means the international division of labor and industry and the opening up of new markets. The globalization of the transportation industry is a consequence of this wider phenomenon. The process has been ongoing for many years and has already integrated most industries on a global scale. Many companies therefore structure themselves internationally and pursue a global strategy. In 2010, most German corporations were already generating a considerable share of their revenues in other countries. At Siemens, for example, such revenues represented 83.7% of the total, at Daimler 77.2% and at Deutsche Post 69.2%.1 Companies have therefore been presented with the mission of prevailing amid foreign competition and facing international competitive pressure. The term "glocalization" describes the increasing penetration and influence that global processes are exerting on regional conditions, customs and habits. Glocalization runs parallel to globalization and represents its effects at regional level.2 Rising production costs in countries that previously served as attractive outsourcing destinations are increasing the importance of nearshoring, i.e. partial provision of services from a less distant location. From a Western European perspective, for example, this means moving production locations to Eastern Europe, while from an American perspective it means a shifting production to Mexico or Brazil. There is also a trend to move production from locations near to the raw materials to places that are closer to sales markets.3 2.1.1

Global transport flows and developments

The volume of world trade and the global population are constantly growing, and, with them, the demand for transportation. This is true for both passenger transportation, which will increase particularly strongly in developing and emerging markets, and freight transportation, where the growth forecasts are even higher.4 This trend will not be without consequences in Germany. Often it is not domestic demand that this responsible for the growth in transport volumes, but the global economy.5

1 2 3 4 5

HoltbrĂźgge 2010 Thomi 2001, p. 203 ten Hompel 2009, p. 28 DVWG 2009 DVWG 2009

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Developments influencing road and rail transportation

One reason that goods exports are growing faster than the economy as a whole is the increasing cross-border trade in intermediate goods. Lower costs of trading are making it increasingly attractive to split value chains and create "multi-layered, regional and international production processes (fragmentation)."

2.1.2

Germany as Europe's logistics center

Germany is one of the world's most important logistics centers. This is thanks both to its location at the heart of Europe and its well-developed infrastructure. Figure 1 shows the geographical locations of Europe's largest logistics regions and illustrates their importance.

Figure 1: European logistics regions6

The illustration clearly shows that Germany is an important part of the red zone and also lies in close proximity to the surrounding growth markets. At around 223 billion euros, the revenues of Germany's logistics sector are the highest in Europe, ahead of France at 131 billion euros and the UK at 93 billion euros (2011 figures). The logistics sector is one of Germany's most important job creators, employing some 2.82 million people.7 Several logistics clusters have emerged within Germany due to their geographical locations and the need for companies to network with each other in order to strengthen their position in the global market. In the Rhine-Main/southern Hesse logistics region, for example, Frankfurt Airport plays a key role both for the distribution of high-value (replacement) parts and the supply of the domestic market.8

6 7 8

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LaSalle 2013, p. 4 LaSalle 2013, p. 5 HMWVL 2013

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Visions of the Future: Transportation and Logistics 2030

A large number of companies in this sector have therefore established themselves here, enabling the region to grow as a whole. Another example is the clustering of cities in the Ruhr area into a single logistics region. Increasing urbanization, the growth of the logistics industry and the need for regional and interregional networks are causing the various clusters to grow ever more tightly together. An example of this is the agglomeration of the Ruhr, Lower Rhine and Cologne/Bonn regions.

2.1.3

Developments influencing road and rail transportation

Freight traffic growth in Germany

National road and rail freight transportation in Germany have both recorded strong growth rates since the early 1990s. In addition, Germany's central location in Europe gives it great importance as a transit country for freight transportation. Transit traffic across all modes of transport is expected to increase by some 25% in the period from 2012 to 2030.9 Transit by road will increase faster than by rail. Figure 2 shows this development in freight transport for Germany.

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Figure 2: Forecast of volume sold in freight transportation – Germany up to the year 205010

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ProgTrans 2012, p. 94 ProgTrans 2007, p. 118

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Developments influencing road and rail transportation

It is also evident that there will be considerable regional differences within Germany in road transport growth. Growth will be highest on the Hamburg - Ruhr region Stuttgart - Munich axes and around Berlin.11, 12 The continual increase in freight transportation on the roads is also leading to a shortage of parking places for trucks on German highways. The states most affected are Baden-WĂźrttemberg, Bavaria, Hesse, Lower Saxony, North Rhine-Westphalia and Rhineland-Palatinate. The consequences of this shortage of parking space are illegal stationing of vehicles along entrances and exits at rest areas and chaotic parking. This often causes dangerous situations by reducing breaking distances and obstructing visibility. These hazards lead to accidents and endanger traffic.

There will be 55% growth in rail freight transport from 2011 to 2020. Increasing traffic will be seen especially on the north - south axes from Hamburg - Hanover and Karlsruhe - Basel, although, as with road transport, a decrease in infrastructure utilization can be expected in areas where the economy is weaker.

Another factor driving the growth in freight is hinterland traffic from seaports. For Germany, the North Range ports (Antwerp, Rotterdam, Bremen/Bremerhaven and Hamburg) play an important role here. The Port of Hamburg serves as a logistics hub for Southern and Eastern Europe13, while the ports at the western end of the North Range "the ARA ports"14 are important for seaport hinterland traffic along the Rhine.

Transport flows in Germany are mismatched in places. This is generally due to an imbalance in the consumption and production of goods. Some regions such as Berlin receive a large number of incoming goods but generate a considerably smaller amount of outgoing freight due to the low level of industrial production. In 2010, for example, three times as many goods were transported into Berlin by truck than were transported out.15 Similarly mismatched transport flows are observable for areas dominated by logistics and services with low industrial production.

2.1.4

Summary of the effects of globalization

In summary, traffic will increase in the years ahead, and create major challenges, especially for road transportation, but also for rail.

The share of international traffic, particularly transit traffic, is expected to increase further in the coming years. The most important factors here are the general growth in transport levels, especially in freight, and the close correlation with economic growth.

However, the importance of cross-border cooperation between logistics service providers is also reinforcing this trend. Although road will remain the most important mode of freight transportation in the future, there are also trends that will support rail transportation and cause the share of cross-border international traffic to increase. The challenges resulting from globalization and the growth of freight transportation can be summarized as follows:

11 12 13 14 15

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ProgTrans 2007, p. 118 BMVBS 2011, p. 6 HHLA 2013, p. 3 Antwerp Rotterdam and Amsterdam BGL 2010

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ďƒ¨ Congestion of infrastructure reducing quality of transportation

Developments influencing road and rail transportation

ďƒ¨ Merging of individual logistics regions ďƒ¨ Transportation corridors with mismatched transport flows

2.2

Demographic change

Demographic change means the change in age distribution. It results from the ratio of birth and death rates and shows population trends. Demographic change is an indicator of how a country's labor force is developing.

2.2.1

German population trend

A declining and aging population is being seen in Germany. This is a result of rising life expectancy combined with a falling birthrate, which are not currently being compensated by migration.16 Figure 3 below shows a population pyramid illustrating the expected demographic change. It compares the years 2060 and 2008, divided into men and women.

Figure 3: Population pyramids for 2008 and 2060 in comparison17

The illustration clearly shows the increase in life expectancy and the aging of the population caused by a declining birthrate.

16 17

Destatis 2009, pp. 12 et seq.

Destatis 2009, p. 15

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Developments influencing road and rail transportation

2.2.2

Development of the labor force in the logistics industry

Demographic change is having an enormous impact on the labor market and the supply of qualified labor in the industrialized countries, especially in Germany. In the years from 2010 to 2025 alone, the labor force is expected to reduce by around 6.5 million to 38.1 million economically active individuals.18 By 2020, more than 50% of the population will be aged over 50, accounting for over 60% of total income.19 There is therefore an acute shortage of skilled labor, which will increase further in the years ahead. Occupational groups in the areas of engineering and the natural sciences, technology, IT and health will be particularly affected.20 By 2020, the shortfall of engineers will reach 200,000. The average age of an engineer is already 50, meaning that one in two will retire by 2020.21 The logistics sector remains an important part of the job market in Germany, employing more than 2.6 million people and currently remaining vibrant.22 The sector is short of qualified skilled employees, for example in operational areas such as truck driving. One of the reasons for this is the often unattractive design of workplaces in operational logistics, especially in the areas of production and warehousing.23 Logistics will record high growth rates in future and also create jobs in other industries thanks to its role across the whole economy. The importance of logistics in Germany is reflected in the World Bank's Logistics Performance Index. Germany has returned to the top spot since 2013,24 having previously fallen to fourth place.25 In order to avoid endangering growth, it is increasingly important to train skilled employees, improve the attractiveness of careers in logistics and win foreign labor for the German market.26 A survey in several companies, which looked at the obstacles to improving the supply of skilled labor in the logistics industry, found that 27.6% of respondents did not view the shortage of skilled labor as the responsibility of the industry itself, or did not see any obstacles from this corner. This means that many businesses are not providing a vigorous or proactive response. 19% of those questioned believed that they had little ability to exert influence here as they considered the issue to be dominated by political corporate interests. A further 27.6% of respondents were not in a position to provide information on the shortage of skilled labor, while the remaining 25.8% described high costs, insufficient technical and scientific progress or lack of market relevance as obstacles. 27 2.2.3

Attractiveness of the workplace

Finding qualified specialists and retaining them in the company for the long term is a difficult challenge for businesses. Greater competitive pressure is raising the demands and pressures on staff too. Reinforced by the development of the internet and mobile

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BrĂźcker 2010 McKinsey 2008, p. 8 VDI 2012, p. 22 VDI 2012, p. 22 BMVBS 2008, p. 10 TU Berlin 2008, p. 37 World Bank 2014 World Bank 2012 McKinsey 2008, p. 12 TU Berlin 2008, p. 35

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end devices (smartphones, tablet PCs, etc.), many companies now demand that their employees are reachable outside of their normal working hours. This often makes it impossible to fully switch off and overcome occupational stress. Employees are experiencing physical symptoms of illness ever more frequently. Figure 4 illustrates the continual increase in sick days caused by burnout between 2004 and 2012.

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Developments influencing road and rail transportation

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Figure 4: number of days of incapacity to work per 1,000 members (excluding retired)28

The requirements for workplaces have changed considerably in recent years and often demand a balance between professional and private life. Enabling such a balance and offering employees an attractive place to work will be an important task for companies in future.

In addition, logistics generally suffers from a rather poor image in society at large.

Statements such as, "The boom industry suffers from a negative image: packing, transportation, warehousing: the usual boring attributes that mean logistics is rarely a prized job," or, "The industry is not exactly considered sexy. It lacks glamor," illustrate some of the many preconceptions.29 The image problem does not so much relate to a possible shortage of skilled labor in senior and executive positions,30 but rather the industry's general working environments, for example the warehouse or truck.31 It was not least for this reason that the pro-trucking group "Initiative ProLkw" began the "Mit Bock auf’n Bock" (up for a truck) campaign in 2011.32 Companies have also launched marketing strategies to make the public more aware of the logistics industry's attractiveness as an employer. Such initiatives and the general improvement of the industry's image aim to counter the shortage of labor.

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BKK 2013, p. 39 BVL 2010, p. 9 Verkehrsrundschau 2012 Verkehrsrundschau 2013 SĂźderelbe 2012

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Developments influencing road and rail transportation

2.2.4

Summary of the effects of demographic change

Demographic change and the appeal of the workplace are already serious challenges for the logistics industry. The workplace itself is increasingly becoming a competitive factor. There are currently a lack of options for training specialist staff, and the industry suffers from an unattractive public image. The challenges can be summarized as follows: ďƒ¨ Skills shortage on the labor market ďƒ¨ Image problem of the logistics industry ďƒ¨ Increasing age of employees working in logistics

2.3

Urbanization

Urbanization means the spread of urban lifestyles to surrounding areas and large-scale migration from the countryside to the cities, causing a major increase in city populations. Reurbanization is a return to the cities following a period of depopulation.

It leads to higher populations and employment in downtown and inner city areas. This trend is currently observable in Germany and around the world, and will lead to changing social demands in future.

2.3.1

Reurbanization

Rural areas and suburban towns are often no longer people's first choice of place to live. In future, the process of urbanization will lead to a renewed importance of cities33 and cause the population in many urban areas to increase, despite the fact that Germany's overall population is declining. One reason for this is the flight from the countryside. Ever more people are leaving rural regions and returning to major cities. 34 Figure 5 below illustrates this change from a rural to an urban population in relation to the development of total world population.

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Brake 2012, pp. 12,14 et seq.

Globe Scan 2011

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Developments influencing road and rail transportation

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Figure 5: Urban and rural populations compared to world population35, 36

Some 50% of the world's population today lives in cities. By as early as 2030, this share will have risen to 60% or some five billion people. In Germany, for example, the major cities such as Munich, Hamburg and Berlin, and the areas immediately surrounding them, are facing high growth rates.37 A side-effect of reurbanization is the growth in traffic levels in the city's core. In future, the fastest growing cities will be confronted with an increase in traffic jams, environmental damage and capacity choke points.38 The results will be dense land use, bottlenecks in supply and waste disposal, high resource consumption, and air and noise pollution.39 Together with societal trends such as increasing and more individualized patterns of consumption, these developments are already placing demands on infrastructure that will become ever more complex in the years ahead. In future, the challenge will be both to manage the increasing traffic in cities and shape it in an environmentally friendly way.

2.3.2

Social development and individualization

The diversity of different lifestyles in global society requires a variety of development options. Maintaining and further developing these individualized lifestyles is a difficult challenge for the future. Consumer behavior and the equally rapid changes and individualization of customer demands increasingly require customized solutions. For example, ever more customers expect next-day delivery when ordering goods, resulting in smaller consignments and increasing traffic levels. Growing online sales of clothing are often associated with return consignments for wrong sizes or colors. Consumers are increasingly turning to internet purchases, presenting new challenges for logistics.

The consequences of this greater individualism are already becoming evident as traditional economic models show signs of breaking down. In future, the logistics

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Bpb 2010 United Nations 2012 Ifmo 2005 Globe Scan 2011 EffizienzCluster 2010, p. 7

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Developments influencing road and rail transportation

industry's main task will be to create the conditions for maintaining this individuality and to offer more customized delivery concepts and logistics services.

2.3.3

Summary of the effects of urbanization

Urbanization and increasing individualization are presenting logistics with important questions. In the context of the call for greater sustainability, systems should be developed that are resource-efficient, economic and adapted to the individual. Central elements of the strategy for sustainable city logistics are innovative mobility concepts, dynamic coordination of different modes of transport within small areas, more productive use of existing infrastructure and more efficient networking of urban areas, especially in supply and waste disposal.40 The city logistics of the future therefore faces the following challenges: ďƒ¨ Increase in transport volumes in the cities due to urbanization ďƒ¨ Reduction in space for traffic ďƒ¨ Individualization requiring customized solutions

2.4

Sustainability

A central issue in today's world is that of sustainability. Companies, the environment and society should develop in a way that meets current needs without endangering future development. The three pillars of sustainability are the environment, the economy and social factors.

2.4.1

Environmental sustainability

Environmental aspects are of great importance for the logistics industry. Logistics, and especially the transportation sector, account for a considerable 18% share of global CO2 emissions.41 Experts predict that, in future, attention to carbon emissions in the design of transportation chains will represent a decisive factor in competition as the demand for "green supply chains" will increase further. The costs of freight and passenger transportation will increase as a result of both higher personnel and energy costs and greater consideration of environmental impacts, pushing noise and air pollution and CO2 emissions to the fore. Companies will become more open with regard to environmental aspects and reduce their carbon emissions.42 In order to be a successful market player over the long term, it is important continually to develop these approaches further and implement improvements. From today's perspective, investments in research and development, modernization of vehicle fleets and training of employees in logistics companies will become increasingly important.43

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EffizienzCluster 2010, p. 7 ten Hompel 2009, pp. 10 et seq.

TU Darmstadt 2008 Deutsche Post 2009, pp. 53 et seq.

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2.4.2

Economic sustainability

Soundly run companies are the economic pillar of sustainability. Entrepreneurial activities should provide for a company's stable financial performance and continued existence. Political guidelines relating to employment and the prosperity and competitiveness of businesses can serve this purpose. Competition generally drives quality and efficiency.

Developments influencing road and rail transportation

An efficient strategy enables economic sustainability by allocating resources in accordance with the basic economic principle of profit maximization.44 However, companies do not always exploit this approach to its full extent today as greater capacity utilization normally conflicts with greater flexibility and customer satisfaction.

Businesses aim to find an optimum balance between these aspects in competition with other companies. However, they can further optimize resource deployment with the help of sustainable technologies.45 High levels of quality and efficiency are decisive here in achieving long-lasting customer loyalty. Competition between different companies produces greater incentives to offer the customer the best possible product at an economic price.

Companies' long-term survival can also be the outcome of cooperation in logistics management, which can create synergy effects and involves specialization among collaborating companies.46 2.4.3

Social sustainability

The third pillar of sustainability comprises social factors, i.e. corporate social responsibility. It includes a company's responsibility to its employees and its wider duty to society.47 The design of the workplace plays an important role here. The more satisfied employees are with their place of work, the more productive they become.

Companies should therefore aim to promote the human capital of trained staff, which represents a major competitive factor, and retain these employees in the company.

Rising energy costs, resource scarcity and development costs are making individual mobility more expensive. From a social perspective, however, this individual mobility must remain affordable for employees. Increasing environmental awareness is leading to a growing demand for "green logistics" throughout society. Companies that offer green logistics in freight or public transportation can improve their corporate image and showcase their social responsibility. This can give them a market advantage and improve their revenues. Social sustainability is therefore become increasingly important against the backdrop of demographic change, the shortage of skilled labor and growing environmental problems.

2.4.4

Summary of the effects of sustainability

Sustainability is already an important topic in public life and its significance is continually increasing. The logistics industry, and especially transportation providers, are key players in this area. Transportation must increasingly be designed with

44 45 46 47

Gabler 2010Â Baldauf 2010, p. 29 Baldauf 2010, p. 32 Baldauf 2010, p. 28

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Developments influencing road and rail transportation

environmental aspects in mind, without neglecting the economic factors facing businesses. In terms of its social role, transportation should enable all individuals to participate in public life. This means working, not least at political level, to ensure the safety of transport and good working conditions in the transportation business. 48 The challenges can be summarized as follows: ďƒ¨ Working conditions as a competitive factor in career choices ďƒ¨ Growing demand for "green logistics" throughout society ďƒ¨ Competition as a driver of quality and efficiency

2.5

Resource scarcity

There is a limit to what a balanced ecosystem can sustain. Given the increasing scarcity of certain commodities such as oil, a modern way of thinking is needed in order to design sustainable and efficient processes and preserve the balance. The recycling economy is an important aspect of this. The recycling rate of many commodities must be considerably improved to reduce the demand for further extraction. This can both reduce environmental impact and present a decisive competitive advantage for the companies involved.49 Germany has decided to implement an energy transition with the objective of environmental sustainability. In addition to switching to sustainable energy sources, Europe has introduced CO2 emissions rights trading in selected industries. From an economic perspective, trading in emissions rights represents an efficient instrument for achieving environmental targets.50 By limiting a country's total CO2 emissions, companies are to be forced in future to implement measures for reducing their own contributions. Trading enables the lowest-cost opportunities to be realized here.

In addition, renewable energies will become an increasingly important component of the energy mix. Political motivation is currently growing, especially in Germany, to make use of regenerative energy sources. A multitude of research projects are being carried out to make alternative energies practical and affordable. Various studies forecast that renewables will reach a 31% share of German energy production by 203551 and an almost 60% share by 205052. This will be accompanied by falling costs of investment in, and use of, alternative energies, making renewable energy sources cheaper in the long run than fossil fuels.53 The choice of fuel for the vehicles used is a crucial aspect of environmental sustainability in the logistics industry. Road freight transport has an important role to play in the context of the growing scarcity of oil reserves. There are now more than

48 49 50 51 52 53

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700 million automobiles on the road around the world, and experts expect this number to double by 2030.54 The majority of vehicles are currently driven by gasoline or diesel engines, however the price of oil is expected to increase.55 These prognoses will require logistics providers to use alternative propulsion in future. The German government set itself the target in 2004 of increasing the use of alternative fuels on the roads.56 This tendency towards alternatives is reflected in the increase in global production of biofuels.57 Electrical propulsion provides another option, especially in city logistics and by the year 2050 some 50% of the cars sold in Germany are expected to be hybrid or electric vehicles.58 This trend will extend to city center delivery concepts and call upon the use of electric commercial vehicles.

Developments influencing road and rail transportation

In some cases, producing alternative fuels requires mineral commodities only available on the world market from a few countries. Moreover, the global commodities sector is characterized by increasing market concentration on the supply side. A small number of providers dominate the market and are forming commodity oligopolies that determine prices. A study in 2011 already described the supply situation in Germany as critical for 13 mineral commodities.59 Access to many of these commodities is absolutely essential for the development of future technologies.

The following points summarize the challenges for logistics in relation to resource scarcity: ďƒ¨ Energy transition intends greater use of alternative energy sources ďƒ¨ Increasing scarcity of fossil fuels is leading to rising energy costs ďƒ¨ Commodity oligopolies are creating scarcity on the world market

54 55 56 57 58 59

Eberl 2011, p. 125 ADAC 2013 b Bundesregierung 2004, p. 137 BP 2013, p. 39 Bundesregierung 2009, p. 13 na Presseportal 2011

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19

3 Solutions

Solutions

This chapter identifies individual solutions based on the challenges described. These approaches can be divided into three areas: digitization, flexible management and technology (see Figure 6). While digitization enables optimized planning based on realtime data, improving technology leads to optimized, energy-efficient and safe processes. Flexible management supports collaboration within and between companies.

Figure 6: Areas of innovation and solutions

3.1

Digitization

Interconnectedness and digitization are increasingly influencing all areas of life, driven by processes of globalization and mediatization. Cell phones, for example, have long been used for more than just phone calls, serving as a platform to surf the internet and enable users to remain always online. For the transportation sector, too, increasing interconnectedness and digitization offers new opportunities and solutions to tackle growing traffic flows. The Internet of Things, intelligent traffic guidance systems on the roads and intelligent freight cars on the rails represent a new approach to transportation.

3.1.1

Internet of Things

The processes of globalization and urbanization in Germany and Europe are increasing the volume of freight traffic and already creating infrastructure bottlenecks. At the same time, calls for greater sustainability are leading to a rethink in transportation planning. The Internet of Things, or cyber-physical systems, enable more efficient use of resources and offer an opportunity to address these issues.

The Internet of Things is a vision in which all types of physical objects are integrated into a universal digital network. Different products can identify and control themselves using radio-frequency identification (RFID) – a communication-capable localization technology. This involves implanting miniature tags into objects in order to store data.

In combination with a reader, these devices are then able to communicate via radio 20

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waves.60 The tags are equipped with microprocessors and can detect their surroundings, process information and interact with other devices. Some of the envisaged uses for this technology are in vehicles, electricity meters and consumer goods.61 Trucks, for example, could automatically notify freight forwarding companies of their location and whether any delays are likely. 62

Solutions

Vehicle-to-vehicle communication is a further option for using the Internet of Things in future. By independently exchanging information on their status and surroundings, vehicles themselves have the potential to improve the safety and efficiency of transportation. However, there are a number of problems involved in implementing the Internet of Things in its various forms. The potential dangers and scope for misuse of the data collected are one possible obstacle and will require solutions to be developed to ensure comprehensive data protection. Despite these issues, the Internet of Things will offer diverse solutions to some of the problems of modern industrialized societies.63 3.1.2

Intelligent traffic guidance systems

The constant rise in traffic levels and increasing urbanization in Germany and Europe is pushing infrastructure beyond its limits. The result: long delays caused by traffic jams, inefficient use of working time and higher fuel consumption. Traffic control, data collection and forecasts based on intelligent traffic management systems offer potential here.

The main challenge is to develop navigation solutions which, unlike existing systems based on navigation for private cars, offer individually customized navigation for diverse industries and users. Traffic control options to make better use of capacity could involve separating freight traffic from private transport or offering route recommendations adapted to the relevant situation. In such a scenario, these route calculations should not only include major highways but also more minor roads. Static features such as environmental zones and preferred routes for trucks, as well as dynamic information like congestion reports and road closures should be factored in.

On many traffic arteries, jams can be avoided not only by taking an alternative route, but also by travelling at a different time of day. Route planning should in future be harmonized with the daily rhythm of traffic flows and take advantage of periods when traffic levels are lower. This would make traffic volumes more homogeneous throughout the day, reducing or avoiding congestion. It would also enable arrival time to be predicted more precisely and thus provide more efficient route scheduling.

Equipping sections of the highway with telematics systems would bring an additional benefit in the medium term: better use of parking space. Information on parking availability could be displayed directly on navigational devices in the vehicle rather than on highway signs.64 Developments and ideas in rail freight parallel those seen in road freight transportation and extend to a common European Rail Traffic Management System. In rail freight, the

60 61 62 63 64

Schoblick 2005, p. 15 Horvath 2012 Malaka 2009, p. 43 Horvath 2012 BMVBS 2011, pp. 14 et seq.

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European Train Control System (ETCS) is a component of this rail traffic management system, which is intended to replace the many different train protection and control systems in use across the EU. The main objective is to simplify European cross-border traffic, making it faster and more cost-efficient. In order to enable safe and reliable rail transportation, ETCS takes over various functions, some of which are carried out by trains and some by route infrastructure. These include monitoring the train's maximum speed and identifying its direction of travel and suitability for the respective route.

Solutions

ETCS is being implemented in different "ETCS levels," so that the most suitable variant can be selected depending on the different route requirements.65 ETCS Level 3 is the highest level. As with ETCS Level 2, trains determine their positions themselves with the help of sensors ("Eurobalises"). This means, for example, that permission to proceed can be transmitted to trains automatically. In addition, trains are able to monitor their own integrity and report their position to the signaling center, which can identify what section of the route the train has successfully cleared. The advantage of this technology is that the following train can then be granted movement authority up to this point.

Line-clear authorization can be provided continuously and the route is no longer divided up into fixed signaling blocks.66 In Germany, no routes have yet been equipped with ETCS, however implementation is planned as rapidly as possible on the German section of Corridor A (Rotterdam-Genoa).67 3.1.3

Intelligent freight cars

Rising traffic volumes call for better use of the resources offered by rail freight transportation. Optimizing processes, minimizing unproductive elements such as empty runs and reducing energy costs are important steps here. Intelligent freight cars enable better use of existing capacity.

The cars are equipped with special telematics systems, which collect, save and process data and communicate with each other within telecommunications networks. The data must be continuous, comprehensive and reliable. Generating and transmitting it costeffectively is vital.68 Complex processes at dispatching and receiving offices, as well as at changeover points for wagonload freight – for example, car sequence data collection – also show major potential for optimization. RFID could automate wagon departure checks, for instance. As these systems develop, RFID will be connected with sensor technology in order to automatically identify technical data relating to the freight car – e.g. closed doors and vents and the status of the brakes. Readers fixed in the track bed are able to capture data from the RFID chips on the bottom of freight cars passing at speeds of up to 140 km/h.69 Freight services do not currently have an electricity supply running the full length of the train. This rules out the use of sensors in each freight car and satellite tracking of individual cars. However, sensors with low power requirements could be installed on each car if suitable power management is provided. Alongside other functions, sensors can monitor loads and thus offer added value and security for transportation

65 66 67 68 69

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SBB 2009

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companies, who face the additional challenge of theft protection. In this area too, location devices and sensors can help to make rail freight transportation more attractive. Key functions include detecting the opening of doors or unloading of containers, as well as temperature monitoring and light sensors.

3.2

Solutions

Flexible management

Flexible management enables capacity utilization and processes to be improved through internal and cross-company cooperation and consolidation of transport volumes. It also includes realizing organizational solutions to improve logistics systems.

3.2.1

Quiet nighttime transport

Moving transport to the nighttime is an attractive option for reducing traffic during the day, especially when it comes to supplying cities. Ever more people live in or close to cities, meaning that the population of metropolitan areas is continually growing.

Systems need to be developed to ensure comprehensive supply without disrupting everyday life. One option is to move delivery processes to the nighttime, however this is restricted by law. Current technology often creates too much noise for use in nighttime delivery.

There are various options for reducing noise emissions that address the individual delivery processes. The noise of delivery vehicles, which is largely generated by the engine, can be reduced using electric or hybrid vehicles, for example. The noise created when vehicles are stationary and unloading (e.g. movement of lifting ramps) can be countered by structural measures such as erecting noise barriers or by ongoing development of quieter loading technology. Behavioral aspects should also be considered. Staff need to use technologies as quietly as possible and not create more noise than the devices themselves (e.g. through communication, movement and other behavior).

Quieter technologies and logistics systems are needed for deliveries at night.

3.2.2

Integrating modes of transport and consolidating transport volumes

Globalization is presenting companies with the challenge of securing their market position and expanding at international level. This means adapting corporate strategy accordingly and making efficient use of the available resources. Probably the most important change in this context is specialization on the most profitable product areas, which will mean reducing the breadth and depth of operations. To remain able to offer individualized products and respond as well as possible to customer requirements, collaboration and integration into value chains will be vitally important to companies in the future. This will give rise to new ideas of competition.70 One option is to consolidate transport volumes and thereby reduce traffic levels. Different providers may cooperate to transport cargo over long distances, consolidating supply flows.

Cooperation in consolidating transport volumes and integrating the different modes of transport will make it possible to expand the number of services offered and reduce

70

Deutsche Post 2009

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costs through synergy effects, to transport goods in a more environmentally friendly way and to make better use of capacity. The role of companies in some areas will be completely transformed by 2020. Logistics service providers will ultimately only be able to survive in the market if they intensify cooperation with competitors, manufacturers and suppliers. They will also form regional clusters responsible for many links in the value chain. Unlike today, logistics processes will not adapt to production processes.

Instead, it will be the logistics processes that form the basis for planning and managing production.71

Solutions

A further option for reducing traffic levels is the use of attractive combined transportation (CT) networks, i.e. shifting transport flows and finding a sustainable, balanced distribution of transportation between the different modes. Intermodal transportation will play an important role here. This is also one of the main objectives anchored in the European Union's White Paper on the objectives of transport policy in Europe.72 3.2.3

Deceleration

Another factor driving change is the deceleration of transport. In the Internet age, when everyone is connected with "smart" mobile end devices, it can seem that people's environment is continually speeding up, both in private and professional life.

Goods ordered online have to be delivered on the same or following day. The traffic this generates involves unnecessary costs and is detrimental to the environment. In future, consumers will be persuaded to forego unnecessary quick deliveries in some cases, or not to regard this as a decisive factor for making an online purchase. It is not essential for every order to reach the customer the following day.73 This will enable logistics providers to better utilize truck capacity or use combined transportation.

3.2.4

Attractive workplace design

The requirements for workplaces have changed considerably in recent years, often demanding a balance between professional and private life and necessitating redesign of workstations. This issue is often described as the work-life balance.74 The impact of this is already being seen in calls for sufficient childcare places and flexible working hours with individual training options.

A model calculation by the German Federal Ministry of Family Affairs, Senior Citizens, Women and Youth shows that integrating ideas of work-life balance into corporate policy has an positive effect if implemented successfully. As well as creating around 221,000 new jobs, it could lead to an increased birthrate. This would increase consumer demand and raise workers' hourly productivity, improving companies' competitive positions internationally.75 Ideas of work-life balance thus not only make sense at company level, but are already showing a positive impact at macroeconomic level too.76

71 72 73 74 75 76

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TU Darmstadt 2008, p. 57 Schmidt 2008 Breitinger 2012 Prognos 2005, p. 3 Prognos 2005, p. 5 Prognos 2005, pp. 5 et seq.

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The design of workplaces, and especially those of truck and train drivers, has a major impact on health, transportation safety and efficiency. Cabs must therefore be adapted to meet drivers' needs.77 In addition to driving, these staff also have further duties that are physically demanding, for example securing loads.78

3.3

Solutions

Technology

Alongside digitization and flexible management, ongoing technological development – both in terms of whole technologies and individual components – has an important role to play. This will impact road and rail freight transportation alike in areas such as modular container construction, waste heat utilization and alternative propulsion technologies. We also examine special technologies such as automatic coupling or autonomous driving in rail freight transportation. Technology will serve to further automate processes in future, making them faster and safer.

3.3.1

Modular container construction

Load carriers are the mainstay of all freight transportation. They enable products and materials to be handled and moved. With consignment sizes decreasing (e-commerce, individuality), the europallet is no longer the ideal load carrier. The lack of standardization of the load carriers used is leading both to greater handling costs in transshipment and inefficient use of load space.

An approach to tackling these problems is a modular system of load carriers and containers. The basic principle is that different container sizes form whole number divisors or multiples of the next-smallest/next-largest container. This means that they can be combined without loss of load space. However, the enormous potential of such a system can only be realized if it becomes an international standard.

3.3.2

Automatic coupling

Automatic coupling enables rail freight cars to be joined together without manual work by operators – for example with a single central buffer coupling at the car ends that includes all supply lines.79 By speeding up train formation, better use can be made of freight car resources, the system and turnaround speed of the cars can be increased and cost savings in staff and materials realized. Automatic couplings also enable longer and heavier trains and thereby increase capacity. The improved distribution of forces throughout the train places fewer demands on wheelsets and rails. Automatic coupling of brake lines and electronic data cables helps enable the "intelligent freight car" to become a reality.

Automatic couplers have a longer operational life than screw couplers.

3.3.3

77 78 79

Waste heat utilization

Brauckmann 2007, p. 8 Brauckmann 2007, p. 13 Sünderhauf 2009, p. 61

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Alongside more environmentally friendly sources of propulsion, today's combustion engines also offer opportunities to use the energy generated in a more sustainable way that conserves resources. With modern combustion engines only achieving an average 40% efficiency, waste heat utilization enables some of this lost energy to be regained (see Figure 7).

Solutions

100 % QFuel

̴ 19 %

QCoolin

̴ 5 %

QConvection

̴ 36 %

QExhaust Qexhaust gas Waste heat utilization

̴ 40 %

PVehicle

Figure 7: Energy flow in an internal combustion engine80

The illustration above shows that the majority of the energy (60%) contained in the fuel is not converted into moving the vehicle, but escapes unused into the atmosphere in the form of heat through exhaust gases and the engine-cooling system.

One way of using the waste heat is to recover this energy. Heat recovery systems are used together with diesel engines and are a direct component of the propulsion system. They are already found in some diesel locomotives and ships. Development for commercial road vehicles is to follow in the next few years. Construction of these new systems can be accompanied by retrofitting existing propulsion systems. Depending on its application, energy recovery can reduce fuel consumption and emission of pollutants by some 4-12%. 81 3.3.4

Autonomous assistance systems

Driver-assistance systems can help reduce accidents. They assist drivers and relieve the pressure, but by no means replace this human presence. Radar, infrared and video cameras are capable of detecting and identifying hazards. Driver error is responsible for most accidents that result in injury – caused, for example, by insufficient distance from the vehicle in front, mistakes while entering side roads and making turns, reversing and parking maneuvers, or driving at an inappropriate speed. Assistance systems are able make a major contribution to reducing accidents in precisely these areas.82

80 81 82

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Cars and trucks feature various assistance systems whose functions include maintaining a safe distance, keeping in lane, ESP, emergency braking, traffic signs, night vision, intersections, fatigue detection, parking and changing lanes.

Solutions

In addition to the assistants found in cars, trucks used in road freight also feature special systems such as active roll stabilization. These minimize instability, i.e. rolling and pitching movements, especially when cornering.83 A feature that is of particular interest for trucks is a turning assistant to monitor the vehicle's blind spot and warn the driver before a turn of any hazards or other road users. These systems can prevent accidents with bikes or other road users.84 The EU has agreed regulations mandating an emergency braking system for all medium and heavy duty trucks from 2015 as well as a lane departure warning system and electronic stability program (the latter from November 1, 2014).85 This is a major step in the introduction of new safety standards for road transportation. Further regulations or subsidies for assistance systems to reduce danger are desirable. The experience of trucking companies and freight forwarders shows that assistance systems are worth the investment as serious accidents are avoided and insurance companies are gradually responding positively to these technologies.86 3.3.5

Autonomous driving in rail transportation

The rail industry has been pursuing the vision of self-driving trains for many years. The approaches implemented range from supportive functions, such as automatic speed regulation, to fully automated driving.87 Autonomous transportation systems can create many advantages in both passenger and freight transportation. Organizations involved in rail operations (companies, local governments) can save on drivers and retrain staff in customer service, which increases the level of service and means more personnel are available to assist passengers.88 In addition, the frequency of trains can be increased and flexibly adapted to meet demand without needing to consider staff availability. Autonomous systems also allow departure and arrival times to be forecast more accurately, and save power by optimizing acceleration and braking patterns.89 Such systems have already been implemented in various cities in relatively small, closed systems (e.g. subways). In freight transportation, however, progress has been slower.

There are currently only a small number of applications where active implementation work is taking place. The Rio Tinto company plans to use autonomous trains from 2014 to transport iron ore on a route in the Pilbara region of Western Australia. The automation aims to increase production capacity here by 50%.90 Another example is the FlexCargoRail project. The basic concept is to equip the individual freight cars with their own source of propulsion so that they can travel the "last mile" to their

83 84 85 86 87 88 89 90

MAN 2013 BG 2013 VDA 2012, p. 19 Verkehrsrundschau 2010 Siemens 2012 b Spiegel 2006 Handelsblatt 2012 Schenker 2012

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destination under remote control and independently of the locomotive. The advantages of this system include greater flexibility as well as time and energy savings.91

Solutions

3.3.6

Alternative propulsion technologies

Driven by scarce resources, cost increases, negative environmental impact and legislation, researchers are working on alternative sources of propulsion in addition to ongoing development of internal combustion engines. Progress is being seen in the areas of electromobility, hybrid solutions and natural gas propulsion.

Electromobility Electromobility is developing as an alternative to today's technologies in the long term.

Thanks to technological progress and falling prices, the market share of electrically powered vehicles in Germany will rise over the coming years.92 The demands of urban spaces are driving this development. Cities make ideal places to provide the necessary infrastructure to operate electric vehicles. The large number of potential users favors the establishment of charging stations, battery exchange facilities and special services in built-up areas.93 The development is initially being driven by private cars as the technical challenges can be tackled at lower cost in this environment than in commercial vehicles. Electric commercial vehicles do not currently have sufficient range or load capacity to make them economic for use in freight transportation. However, various manufacturers are currently developing concepts for the future use of electrically powered commercial vehicles. If these prove successful in practice, we can expect them to become a more regular feature of distribution traffic and city logistics.

CNG - Compressed natural gas Compressed natural gas is another alternative fuel. While manufacturers today offer series production of gas-powered private cars, gas is the exception when it comes to commercial vehicles.

The disadvantages compared to diesel vehicles include the smaller range of around 400 km and the relative lack of gas stations selling compressed natural gas. To increase the range, special trailers are available with additional tanks in pallet boxes, enabling around 1,000 km to be travelled between refueling.

LNG - Liquefied natural gas A promising alternative to the use of conventional gas is unconventional liquefied natural gas (LNG). LNG is natural gas that has been cooled to a temperature of around -160°C, turning it into a liquid. As a result, it only takes up a fraction of the volume of natural gas in its gas state (CNG) and enables a large range, almost equaling that of diesel vehicles, to be achieved with only a moderately sized tank.94

91 92 93 94

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Natural gas offers some advantages over diesel. The combustion process emits less carbon dioxide in relation to the energy produced. Compared to diesel, burning LPG is very clean. Moreover, natural gas reserves are still relatively high compared to those of crude oil and can be expected to last the next 200 years.95

Solutions

So far, there are only a few commercial trucks in service with LNG propulsion.

However, the trend shows that LNG represents a promising alternative and enables quieter and more environmentally friendly engines.

Hybrid technology Hybrid technology offers a further innovation for both road and rail freight transportation by combining two methods of propulsion. The basic concept is to use two different sources of motive power in a single vehicle. In some applications, the driver can switch between these, while in others the two power sources assist each other, for example diesel and electricity.

Hybrid technology has great potential in rail freight transportation on routes with both electrified and non-electrified sections. Currently, such routes require either a change of locomotive or the use of diesel power under the overhead wires. In addition to this much-discussed hybrid concept, there is also a further model involving switchyard locomotives that largely run on battery power and use a diesel generator unit to recharge at intervals.

The relative dimensions of the diesel and electrical units in hybrid locomotives can be adapted based on the intended use and length of the relevant route. At present, however, there are no hybrid locomotives (offering diesel power greater than around 1.5 MW) with sufficiently large diesel units to cope with longer and more arduous routes. They quickly run up against weight limits here. The great efficiency of electric power from the overhead catenary makes intensive development work on hybrid locomotives worthwhile. The aim must be to avoid running with diesel under the wires as far as possible while maintaining efficient operation at the transition points between electrified and non-electrified lines.

In rail freight transportation, hybrid technology is used both by main line and switchyard locomotives. One method is to equip an electric locomotive with an additional diesel power unit, enabling it to run short distances beyond the electrified network. The other is to equip diesel vehicles with an electrical power unit to assist the diesel. When the train brakes, energy is recovered and stored in a battery, which can be used to assist reacceleration and power the train in low-speed operations. Potential diesel savings of up to 40%, environmental benefits due to reduced particle emissions and nitrogen oxides, noise reductions of 15% and a lower life-cycle cost make the hybrid locomotive a promising alternative.

Different hybrid technologies are also available in road transportation. The serial hybrid consists of a combustion engine linked to a generator and electric motor. The electric motor provides the actual power to the wheels. Meanwhile, the combustion engine and generator deliver energy that is either fed directly into the electric motor or stored in the battery. The alternative is the parallel hybrid, in which both combustion engine

95

FAZ 2013

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and electric motor are linked to the driving wheels. Here, it is possible in theory to drive in both pure electric and pure combustion engine modes. The electric and combustion engine power sources can also be used to drive the vehicle simultaneously. This technology enables quiet nighttime deliveries, for example, as the last mile to the customer can be driven on electric power alone, while the longer distances on major roads can be covered using the diesel engine.

Solutions

All types of hybrid drive offer the general advantage of reducing fuel consumption by combining a conventional engine and an electric motor. This is because the electric motor helps to power the vehicle, or alternatively powers it alone, and the internal combustion engine can always operate at an optimum rpm-range.

Hydrogen There are currently two different approaches to using hydrogen as a power source in vehicles. One is to use a bi-fuel engine that burns both gasoline and hydrogen. This is intended to enable the vehicle to be used without a comprehensive infrastructure of hydrogen filling stations. However, it represents something of an interim solution for the second technology: the hydrogen fuel cell. The fuel cell is able to generate electricity using an electrochemical process. The major advantage of this technology is that it eliminates all emissions as the chemical reaction only produces water. Fuel cell systems also enable efficient, quiet operation with continuous power transmission thanks to the high torque levels of the electric motor.

However, hydrogen also has some disadvantages. One of these is the complex method of storage. If hydrogen is stored as a gas, the tanks must be able to withstand a pressure of at least 350 bar when full. Another option is to store the hydrogen as a liquid. This does not require high-pressure containers, however the gas must be cooled to minus 253°C before it turns to liquid. The tanks must therefore be extremely well insulated.96 At present, however, the greatest problem is the inadequate infrastructure available. In 2010 there were only ten public hydrogen filling stations in the whole of Germany. This number is set to rise to more than 100 by 2015 and as many as 12,000 by 2050,97 potentially making hydrogen vehicles an attractive alternative for the future.

96 97

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4 Future scenarios 2030

Future scenarios 2030

In this chapter, nine future scenarios are developed for road and rail freight transportation in the context of innovative and sustainable transport systems. These build on the trends and innovations already identified.

4.1 Integrating systems to enable goods in transit to be monitored and managed in real time

Increasing digitization and networking of objects provides the basis for the Internet of Things (cyber-physical systems). This gives rise to intelligent load carriers, which provide transport information for immediate processing. The rapid provision of information and communication between the load carriers themselves creates self-controlling and flexible transportation chains. The freight makes real-time decisions, based on real data and events, on the route it will take though the transportation network. It is possible to change the route or mode of transport at short notice and optimize transportation chains in terms of capacity utilization, transport time, environmental factors and costs.

There is therefore more focus on the integration of different modes of transport and decentralized decision making in real time when it comes to scheduling and shipping.

Managing the Internet of Things and combing it with intelligent traffic guidance systems makes better use of existing infrastructure capacity. For example, longer routes increase the transport volume but also save time and improve reliability. This has an impact on the internal processes of transportation and transshipment companies. The rapid provision of electronic information streamlines processes and eliminates the need for time-consuming data collection upon the cargo's arrival at its destination. A further advantage is the optimized planning and utilization of resources enabled by the preannounced arrival times.

Vehicle-to-vehicle communication is extensively introduced. Transmitting data on status and surroundings means danger can be reduced or avoided as vehicle electronics intervene directly or warn the human driver. The Internet of Things helps to bring

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Future scenarios 2030

about new services based on the automated control of load carriers by the transportation network.

4.2 Using infrastructure efficiently with intelligent traffic guidance systems

In future, all road users' vehicles are equipped with ever more modern navigation devices. This enables extensive data to be transferred and offers new options to assist navigation. Infrastructure, too, becomes ever more closely integrated with such intelligent guidance systems. The integration of different modes of transport and infrastructure provides real-time data to guide road users. Freight traffic is clearly distinguished from private transport so that individualized traffic forecasts for different road users become a reality.

To avoid traffic congestion, alternative routing shows each road user the most resource-efficient and quickest way to their destination and is customized to their individual needs. A precise forecast or arrival time can be given, enabling more efficient route planning in freight transportation. The route calculation not only includes major roads and highways, but also smaller roads. It additionally takes into account environmental zones, preferred routes for trucks and road closures. All this requires individual transportation to be sufficiently networked with freight transportation and infrastructure. Reliable data availability must be assured and accessible across all interfaces.

As well as preventing traffic congestion, intelligent traffic guidance systems help to optimize provision of parking spaces for trucks. For example, existing truck parking areas can be supplemented at night with land that has other uses during the daytime.

Parking lots at large shopping malls close to highways can be used by trucks overnight.

This ensures intelligent routing as each road user is allocated a parking space that is appropriate to their route and that they can reach within their legal driving hours.

Implementing this model means connecting infrastructure, which contains data on current capacity levels, with road users' navigational devices. The system ensures that legal driving hours and rest periods are observed and time on the road is used effectively.

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Parallel developments in the rail industry enable trains to be operated automatically with the introduction of a common European Train Control System (ETCS) as part of the European Rail Traffic Management System (ERTMS). Networking trains with infrastructure, for example using sensors, allows the train's maximum speed to be monitored, its direction of travel identified and suitability for the respective route verified. In future, the most advanced level of ETCS – ETCS Level 3 – enables additional functionality such as automated line-clear authorizations and location reporting from trains to signaling centers. This allows tracks to be used more efficiently as lines are no longer divided into fixed blocks and trains can be given permission to proceed as far as the last reported location of the train in front. However, implementation relies on both trains and tracks being equipped with this technology.

Future scenarios 2030

Individualized routing, customized to the type of vehicle and with networked assistance systems, therefore means more resource-efficient transportation on roads and rails alike. To make this system work, vehicles must be equipped over the coming years with the technologies needed to continuously transmit and receive real-time data.

4.3 Safe and efficient transportation with driver assistance systems

Greater communication and networking between road users in future is achieved by equipping growing numbers of vehicles with modern technologies. This increases the number of information sources that can be used to create a safe and efficient flow of traffic. Radar, infrared and video cameras on modern vehicle fleets, for example, enable additional information and hazards to be detected and identified. Networked assistance systems can use this data and inform the driver visually or acoustically. This takes the burden off drivers by supporting them in their work environment.

Depending on the extent to which these technologies are applied in future, they take the form of individual driver aids to assist, for example, in maintaining a safe distance, keeping in lane and driving at night, or are developed and combined to make the leap from driver assistance to autonomous driving. Truck convoys are one possible use for this technology. The trucks drive themselves in a line at equal distance from one another, all controlled by a driver in the truck at the front of the convoy. The remaining trucks are accompanied by trained staff able to intervene in an emergency. In the shorter term, these autonomous technologies are used for internal transportation on

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self-enclosed factory sites, greatly facilitating processes on the ground. Combining autonomous vehicles with the integration of systems – i.e. using the Internet of Things – enables goods or products to be transported autonomously around the factory from one stage of the process chain to the next.

We see the development both of increasing safety in road transportation (e.g. fatigue detection, emergency braking assist) and of technologies that lead to greater comfort and more attractive working environments (e.g. parking assist). Networked assistance systems first and foremost improve safety and reduce traffic accidents, enable more efficient driving and contribute to saving resources.

When combined with intelligent traffic guidance systems, the networked assistance systems bring further advantages. For example, the latest data calculated by traffic sign assistants can not only be displayed to the driver, but also transmitted to the navigation device, where it can be processed and saved. Combing these different approaches thus generates further potential synergy effects, improving the safety and efficiency of transportation.

4.4 Optimizing processes with intelligent freight cars

The large workload involved in switching maneuvers and numerous manual tasks present rail freight transportation with the challenge of designing more efficient processes. Intelligent freight cars feature special telematics and IT systems. These calculate, store and process data on movement, the condition of the car and more.

Innovative systems also detect unauthorized opening of doors and record vibration data. This information is transmitted continually and reliably to those involved in the transportation chain. Intelligent freight cars improve security with continuous surveillance, enabling unauthorized opening of doors or unloading of containers to be detected and temperature monitoring and light sensors to be installed.

Processes in terminals and sidings are also optimized. Improved monitoring and information provision accelerates processes and automates car sequence data collection and wagon departure checks. This reduces sources of error and process times.

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Intelligent freight cars are complemented by technological innovations such as automatic couplers and electro-pneumatic brakes. This leads to shorter process times in forming and dividing trains, reduced braking distance and faster response times by the train. The result is more effective use of tracks and improved safety thanks to advanced technology.

Future scenarios 2030

Synergy effects exist here, for example with intelligent traffic guidance systems and integration of different modes of transport. The freight cars are able to decide their own transport route depending on the information provided. This direct communication simplifies processes and saves valuable resources in future.

4.5 Low noise levels in city logistics with alternative propulsion and new logistics concepts

Increasingly limited vehicular access to downtown areas, the rising number of environmental zones and residents' growing need for peace and quiet present new challenges for commercial transportation. Quiet city logistics with alternative vehicle and propulsion technologies safeguards supplies to these locations in future.

Electromobility, for example, offers a good option for driving into these restricted zones in specially adapted vehicles without creating high levels of noise and emissions. The special nature of these urban transports means that the vehicles do not require a large range. Hybrid, hydrogen and compressed natural gas vehicles play an ever more important role as they are less polluting than today's trucks and permitted to enter all areas of the environmental zones. However, existing vehicle fleets are also developed to reduce emissions and noise levels. City logistics presents diverse technological challenges for vehicles, which need further development to meet the requirements of urban areas in the future.

It is not only technological aspects that play a major role here, but also the nature of deliveries themselves. By extending delivery times to 24 hours a day, some transports can be moved to the nighttime, easing the burden on infrastructure in city centers.

However, nighttime deliveries in turn pose special demands on vehicles and the technologies used in them if disturbance to residents is to be avoided. Introducing such delivery concepts requires the vehicle and propulsion technologies used at night to be exceptionally quiet. The new propulsion systems of modern vehicle fleets enable

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environmentally friendly and quiet transportation with logistics concepts that are adapted to the situation.

In addition to quiet nighttime transport, other approaches envisage logistics systems that combine transport flows at transfer points on the edge of the city, reducing the number of journeys into the city center. In these models, large trucks only deliver their cargo as far as a transshipment point on the city perimeter, where unloading takes place. Goods are transferred at this hub to smaller vehicles better suited to the needs of urban areas. The result is an inter-company, cooperative consolidation of transport volumes. Goods from different trucking companies are combined at the hub and loaded into a single vehicle for delivery to the city center. This also increases vehicle capacity utilization and makes infrastructure use more efficient. At the same time, the number of journeys into the city is optimized and reduced. Each vehicle no longer delivers to several different destinations, but ideally to one location with multiple products.

All in all, quiet nighttime transport in city logistics still offers major potential to take the strain off infrastructure as reurbanization takes its course. If deliveries are to become so quiet that they can be moved to the nighttime, however, there is still a great deal of research work to be done, particularly in vehicle and propulsion technologies. Batteries must be made powerful enough to drive larger trucks or cover greater distances without needing a recharge.

4.6 Using capacity efficiently with modular container design for small transport volumes

Increasing individualization leads to ever smaller transport quantities but an increasing number of separate items. This increases the workload involved in handling the goods and, in future, necessitates alternative solutions to make efficient use of cubic capacity and enable logistics to be more effective. To transship goods more quickly and consolidate separate items, a standardized modular container design is used to containerize small loading units. Terminal-handled goods, for example, can easily be moved into a container, considerably simplifying processes in line haul. The containerized loading units can also be transported by road and rail.

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The system functions under a modular principle. There are load carriers of different sizes, but proportional dimensions, enabling containers to be completely filled. This principle is not only applicable to containers but also works for smaller delivery depots in city centers with boxes for bicycle couriers. The individual boxes are filled at central transshipment points and then used in the depots.

Future scenarios 2030

To take the pressure off city centers, the modular containers are combined at intercompany handover points on the edges of urban areas, forming large loading units for the line haul, or prepared for delivery. Importantly, this requires an international standard for the containers to enable the principle to work across different companies and the different smaller loading units to be packed together efficiently into larger ones. This cooperative consolidation of transport volumes is used in future to provide appealing, individualized and efficient transportation services in CT networks.

Using this modular container design, und consolidating transport volumes with multimodal integration of different carriers, leads to further potential savings by cutting resource use and increasing efficiency. For example, the loading units can be transported by truck for pre- and on-carriage, and by train for the line haul stage, without needing to handle the individual goods.

4.7 Consolidating transport volumes with multimodal integration of different modes of transport

Advancing globalization and a more individualized society increase the demands on the logistics industry around the world and also the significance of logistics, particularly in the context of economic and environmental sustainability. In future, horizontal and vertical cooperation between competing firms helps enable companies to offer attractive transportation services combined with an efficient use of resources, despite increasing individualization. This cooperative consolidation of transport volumes allows high capacity utilization while maintaining a dense network.

By pooling resources in a targeted manner, logistics companies also have the option in future of making transportation chains, and entire value chains, more sophisticated and thus more efficient. Different scenarios can be envisaged for the "last mile" and in urban areas. State institutions may establish "delivery monopolies" so that only certain logistics companies are authorized to serve certain districts of the city.

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Another option is greater cooperation within a competitive environment. Different providers may split the delivery zones between themselves or coordinate joint deliveries for the last mile. This cooperative consolidation of transport volumes is assisted by the deceleration of transport. Environmental and economic efficiency is increasingly more important than the speed of transportation. Digitization also supports the management of transport volumes. It enables continual monitoring of the transportation chain and event management that is capable of reacting to unforeseen occurrences during transport and of offering solutions, for example in the event of traffic jams or train delays.

The integration of different modes of transport is complemented by the use of innovative, high-speed cargo handling technologies. Together with optimized interfaces, designing individualized and attractive CT networks enables improved capacity utilization across all transportation modes and companies. Harmful emissions of pollution and exposure to it, for example noise caused by city traffic, is reduced as a result. There is enormous potential to reduce costs at economic level through efficient resource use.

4.8 Modern work environments to make the logistics industry more appealing

The attractiveness of workplaces and working environments increasingly becomes a competitive factor. Together with the growing shortage of skilled labor in the logistics industry, this necessitates a rethink in future to help companies find the staff they need. The objective is to provide attractively designed workplaces and long-term training of skilled employees to strengthen the logistics industry. Ever more attention is also focused on integrating skilled staff from other countries.

In addition to this training of new staff, there must also be provision for existing employees to continue learning and participate in individualized ongoing professional development. This enables everyone to shape their working environment according to personal needs: professional development, job rotations or more time for the family.

The balance between professional and private life provides employees with a degree of freedom and enables them to mold their own working conditions in a flexible manner.

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The issue of work-life balance becomes an ever more decisive factor in people's career choices.

Future scenarios 2030

Networked assistance systems and modern vehicle fleets support staff at their workplaces and ease the pressure on them. Such technology also makes it easier for people to join the industry, including those moving from other careers. Ergonomic and attractively designed workplaces, such as truck and train cabs, are another factor.

Improving the industry's attractiveness and long-term training provision for skilled employees strengthens logistics and does not come at the expense of people's own private and professional goals.

4.9 More environmentally friendly transportation with alternative vehicle and propulsion technologies

Society's call for "green logistics" demands more environmentally friendly transportation in future. This is provided by modern vehicle fleets used in a way that optimizes energy use and carbon emissions. It involves developing both vehicle technologies, such as better aerodynamics to reduce CO2, and propulsion technologies. There is unused potential, not only in electric and natural gas propulsion, but also in existing combustion engine technology, which can be converted into further CO2 savings through changes to vehicle technologies.

Hybrid solutions are also developed and used in both road and rail freight transportation. Hybrid solutions in road freight enable the various advantages of both modes of power to be exploited. For example, vehicles can drive on electric power through city centers and quiet zones, then switch to diesel mode on long-distance routes where a greater range is required. In rail freight, hybrid technologies can avoid the need to change locomotives when switching from electrified to non-electrified lines. This creates individualized, efficient transportation chains that can be customized to different needs.

Trucks and locomotives can achieve additional energy efficiency in future with waste heat utilization. This greater engine efficiency cuts fuel consumption and thus conserves resources. In future, transportation concepts achieve considerable CO2 efficiency using optimized vehicle and propulsion technologies that are adapted to the

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situation. Modern vehicle fleets therefore save resources and make greater use of environmentally friendly energy sources.

Combining adaptable, individualized route planning with intelligent traffic control systems enables further resource savings.

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5 Efficient transportation 2030

Efficient transportation 2030

The interaction of the nine future scenarios creates the overall picture of efficient transportation. The increase in digitization, in information flows before and during transport, and the ongoing development of vehicle and propulsion technologies, combined with networked assistance systems, are the prerequisites for efficient transportation and competitive industries in Germany in the year 2030. Optimizing the interaction between these individual visions enables further potential for improving efficiency to be leveraged. For example, technical improvements like intelligent freight cars support solutions of a more organizational nature – e.g. consolidation of transport volumes through multimodal integration of carriers.

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Areas for action

6 Areas for action The future scenarios described here for achieving the objectives set and minimizing the impacts point to various areas for action that will help us to realize the vision of efficient transportation in the year 2030. These action areas further develop the solutions described in chapter 3, which in turn set out to address the trends identified in chapter 2. The solutions present individual measures that, despite being full of potential, can only achieve the impact described in the future scenarios if they are combined with one another.

Like the individual solutions, the areas for action are categorized into the three areas of innovation: digitization, technology and flexible management. While digitization enables optimized planning based on real-time data, improving technology leads to optimized, energy-efficient and safe processes. Flexible management supports collaboration within and between companies.The areas for action identified are also grouped into four types of transportation: cross-carrier, rail freight, and local and longdistance road traffic. Figure 8 summarizes the areas for action in a matrix.

Figure 8: areas for action

These areas for action and the potential synergies between them create the overall picture of efficient transportation in the year 2030. Both road and rail freight transportation are seeing the beginnings of major development across the board. To make this future scenario a reality, intensive and innovative research work is needed in these fields. The interactions and synergies between the different areas must also be further developed.

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