Pftt 2016 12 22

Head coach situations in Buffalo, Los Angeles and Jacksonville SINCE 1967

THURSDAY | DECEMBER 22, 2016

HOLIDAY TREATS THREE TOP GAMES WILL ROUND OUT THE NFL’S CHRISTMAS WEEKEND

Von Miller

Terrell Suggs

Matthew Stafford

RAVENS AT STEELERS

BRONCOS AT CHIEFS

LIONS AT COWBOYS

Eric Berry Ezekiel Elliott

Ben Roethlisberger

ProFootballWeekly.com

PRO FOOTBALL WEEKLY | ProFootballWeekly.com | THURSDAY, DECEMBER 22, 2016

1 NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS 2 DALLAS COWBOYS 3 PITTSBURGH STEELERS 4 NEW YORK GIANTS 5 KANSAS CITY CHIEFS 6 ATLANTA FALCONS 7 OAKLAND RAIDERS 8 GREEN BAY PACKERS 9 SEATTLE SEAHAWKS 10 BALTIMORE RAVENS 11 DETROIT LIONS 12 MIAMI DOLPHINS 13 TENNESSEE TITANS 14 DENVER BRONCOS 15 HOUSTON TEXANS 16 TAMPA BAY BUCCANEERS 17 INDIANAPOLIS COLTS 18 MINNESOTA VIKINGS 19 BUFFALO BILLS 20 CAROLINA PANTHERS 21 WASHINGTON 22 NEW ORLEANS SAINTS Welcome to our ProFootballWeekly.com 23 ARIZONA CARDINALS NFL Week 16 Power Rankings SAN DIEGO CHARGERS The Steelers and Giants move into the top four of our Power Rankings and the Lions fall out 24 of the top 10 with two games to go. The Broncos also drop down, and the defending champs 25 CINCINNATI BENGALS may not even make the playoffs.

26 PHILADELPHIA EAGLES 27 CHICAGO BEARS 28 LOS ANGELES RAMS 29 NEW YORK JETS 30 JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS 31 SAN FRANCISCO 49ERS 32 CLEVELAND BROWNS Dominant in Denver, no-brainer No. 1

Dak dunks doubters, Bucs, easy No. 2 Bell putting up MVP-type numbers

Flawed, sure, but who else is clearly better?

Alex Smith’s tale of two halves vs. Titans

No doubting offense, can defense keep up?

Shouldn’t have been that hard in San Diego

Four-game win streak, but won ugly in Chicago Nice bounce on Rams, but can’t ignore Green Bay Barely hung on vs. Philly; have to play better vs. Pitt With Dallas and Green Bay left, can they hang on?

Well, Matt Moore won’t be a problem

Clearly better than we thought; the K.C. win was huge

Power Rankings

Defense still great, not super; offense is awful Savage saves the day; stick a fork in Osweiler Not quite ready for prime-time yet

OK, who saw Vikings slaughter coming?

Hard to believe but have to ask: Zimmer’s team quit?

Let’s see how players feel about Rex next two weeks Rivera keeps them playing for pride in D.C.

Breathing, but Monday night bad time for clunker We knew they could score points, just no ‘D’ Hard to put finger on, something very wrong Ridiculous injuries, McCoy keeps them coming Zero character; team needs a change at the top Wentz has hit wall, needs help around him

AP PHOTO

Another loser that keeps on fighting

Why do people think this is such a plum job?

You’d think Bowles deserves another shot but...

Will be interesting next year; was Bradley the problem?

After their last-second victory over the Bears Sunday afternoon, Aaron Rodgers and the Packers control their own playoff destiny

Pro Football Weekly is produced by Shaw Media, the Daily Herald Media Group and the Chicago Sun-Times in partnership with other Illinois daily newspapers.

Not sure why Baalke or Kelly should stay

Nothing clever left to say; not worth watching

W

ith just two weeks left to play in the 2016 NFL season, only 10 of the NFL’s 32 teams have been mathematically eliminated from playoff contention.

Granted, another handful of clubs are alive based solely on a handful of scenarios about as likely to develop as Donald Trump being elected president of the United States, oh wait ...

So it’s time once again to ponder the question – this NFL we have today, is it delivering fantastic parity or rampant mediocrity?

Clearly the question is as subjective as they come. As we’ve played with it over the past couple decades, I’ve yet to come up with a meaningful test that allows us to accurately compare teams of one era to another.

But when you think about it, that’s not really the question we’re asking.

What many of us are trying to figure out is, are the top teams in the league we are watching this year any good, or are they really just a bunch of mediocre teams trying to beat up on each other?

The way I see it, we are being given a product that is as competitive

as it is because so of very food football many of the top clubs players who are all are barely more than complimentary parts, mediocre, and here’s ultimately defining the the best explanation I meaning of team.

I believe they’ll win have to offer to prove the Super Bowl this my theory. year and could play There is no doubt with any team of any in my mind that the era.

New England Patriots are the best team Dallas is clearly in the NFL right now the second-best team and that the Dallas in the league, but do Cowboys are next. they match any of the Those two might ingredients I’ve deHUB ARKUSH scribed the Pats with? not meet in the Super harkush@ProFootballWeekly.com No. Bowl because, as we @Hub_Arkush The Cowboys have all know, it is a game the best offensive line in football, one they play, there are unpredictable of the top receivers and the two best events and conditions that often dictate the outcome of those games and, rookies in the league, but other than to get really technical on you, stuff that they come with a lot of questions. happens.

Dallas’ defense is unremarkable But I think those clubs are really at every level, and Jason Garrett is a good. nice coach, but is he special?

The Patriots are capable of beating Dallas has two losses to the Giants you with their offense or their defense, and its only wins over clubs likely to as they proved in Denver last Sunday. be in the playoffs are against Pittsburgh – a 35-30 squeaker at the gun Bill Belichick is the best coach in – and Green Bay nine weeks ago. the history of the game. Tom Brady Dallas is very good, but what other is the best player in the game today, playoff contender would shock you if and they are surrounded by a bunch

they beat them?

Pittsburgh, Kansas City, Oakland and Miami are the next group at the top of the AFC. The Steelers were 4-5 five weeks ago, Miami started the year 1-4, the Chiefs have losses to Tampa, Tennessee and Houston, and the Raiders have the NFL’s 30th-ranked defense, 25th against the run and 21st in points allowed.

These are better than average, not necessarily good teams.

In the NFC, the Giants, Seattle, Atlanta, Green Bay, Detroit and Tampa Bay join the Cowboys at the top.

Seattle has lost 38-10 at Green Bay and 14-5 at Tampa in two of the past four weeks.

Other than Dallas, the only winning club the Giants have beaten is 8-6 Baltimore. Atlanta owns losses to Tampa, San Diego and Philadelphia.

Detroit is likely to drop its last three and finish out of the playoffs, or in by default, and the Packers were 4-6 five weeks ago.

I’m sorry, folks, but other than New England and on most Sundays the Cowboys, the NFL’s best clubs this year look like an awfully motley crew to me.

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PRO FOOTBALL WEEKLY | ProFootballWeekly.com | THURSDAY, DECEMBER 22, 2016

Other than Pats and ’Boys, NFL is rampantly mediocre

PRO FOOTBALL WEEKLY | ProFootballWeekly.com | THURSDAY, DECEMBER 22, 2016

Three matchups highlight NFL’s holiday weekend

By ARTHUR

I

ARKUSH

aarkush@profootballweekly.com

f all NFL fans want for Christmas are two front-runners looking to sink their teeth into their division rival’s playoff hopes, they must be on Santa’s good side this year.

The Christmas matinee features the 8-6 Ravens visiting the 9-5 Steelers, and Pittsburgh can clinch its second AFC North title in the past three seasons with a victory. Baltimore, in search of its first division crown since 2012, when they last won the Super Bowl, must win Sunday and in Cincinnati in Week 17 to cross that goal off the list.

Since being held to 14 points, their second-lowest total of the season, in a Week 9 road loss in Baltimore, the Steelers have gone 5-1 while scoring an average of 26.2 points each week. The AFC’s hottest team has a two-time Super Bowl-winning quarterback in Ben Roethlisberger, who was clearly limited by a knee injury in the first meeting, but no one has answered the bell over their recent surge like Le’Veon.

Pittsburgh’s back has averaged a ridiculous 32

Tyreek Hill may win AFC Rookie of the Year

AP PHOTO

touches, 181 scrimmage yards and a touchdown over the past six games. He’s the game’s most patient runner, but Bell has wildly and abruptly crashed the MVP discussion like a player making up for lost time after missing the first three games due to suspension.

Brandon Williams, C.J. Mosley and Baltimore’s oft-impenetrable run ‘D’ has permitted a league-

low 3.5 yards per carry – Bell averages 4.8 – but just allowed a season-high 169 rushing yards to the Eagles, who came within a failed two-point conversion of replacing this gift of a game with coal in the stockings of the Ravens and NFL fans everywhere.

Though there are more reasons to believe in a Ravens defensive rebound than their inconsistent offense standing toe to toe with the powerful Steelers, Baltimore knows it needs one of the NFL’s more underutilized ground games to take pressure off a secondary that could again be without top corner Jimmy Smith.

Perhaps interim offensive coordinator Marty Mornhinweg will draw inspiration from Bell – much less harken John Harbaugh’s message after Mornhinweg’s “all-time worst play call” resulted in Joe Flacco nearly throwing the game away Sunday – by attempting to lean on Kenneth Dixon, Terrance West and an improving offensive line.

•••

Gary Kubiak’s Broncos would love to have Baltimore’s offensive line and backfield, but alas, theirs likely will again be a liability when Denver heads

DOLPHINS AT BILLS

’Phins made lots of flashy signings this offseason, none bigger now than re-signing Matt Moore. Rex Ryan preparing for what looks like his final home game in Buffalo.

FALCONS AT PANTHERS

In past four wins, Falcons 164, foes 74. Too little, too late for Panthers, but reigning conference champs still showing a lot of pride.

WASHINGTON AT BEARS

Washington has a short week to recover after squandering playoff destiny. Lose final two and Chicago will have its worst record since NFL went to 16-game schedule.

CHARGERS AT BROWNS

Sad that the Bolts may feel more at home in Cleveland than San Diego. Robert Griffin III earns third start to pursue first passing touchdown.

VIKINGS AT PACKERS

Minnesota on cusp of becoming sixth team since 1990 to miss playoffs following a 5-0 start. Green Bay closing in on 6-0 finish to secure eighth consecutive playoff berth.

TITANS AT JAGUARS

Ben Roethlisberger and the Steelers face Joe Flacco and the Ravens for the lead in the AFC North to Kansas City with its chances of returning to the playoffs essentially hinging on Christmas and New Year’s Day miracles. In addition to beating the Chiefs, then the Raiders at home in Week 17, Denver needs a lot of help following their second consecutive loss, which preceded some locker room infighting between the team’s best and worst position groups – not exactly our idea of spreading holiday cheer.

Despite a home letdown to the Titans letting Oakland back into the AFC West lead, the Chiefs can maintain their grip on the top wild card by handling their own business at home versus the Broncos and in San Diego Week 17.

Andy Reid continues to refuse unleashing one of the NFL’s more electrifying trios – Travis Kelce, Tyreek Hill and Jeremy Maclin – for a full four quarters, and Kelce was critical of Reid’s “conservative” game plan after the Chiefs lost a 10-point fourth-quarter lead in Week 15.

Of course, these clubs are meeting in prime-

AP PHOTO

Dak Prescott and the Cowboys will have the top seed in the NFC if they beat the Lions

AP PHOTO

time for the second time in four weeks. The Chiefs’ thrilling overtime victory in Denver on Nov. 27 was bolstered by the triple threat, Hill, and sealed after Gary Kubiak’s decision to attempt a game-winning 62-yard field goal backfired, giving the Chiefs a short field to notch their own dramatic game-winner.

In three prime-time games, Hill has scored six combined touchdowns, likely enough to secure Offensive Rookie of the Year honors in a season not dominated by Dallas’ duo of Dak Prescott and Ezekiel Elliott. Perhaps the NFL’s fastest player, Hill has dramatically changed the complexion of the Chiefs’ offense just as quickly and, along with a sensational defense, makes the Chiefs a team to fear in January. First, though, they’ll look for their first season sweep of the Broncos since 2000.

•••

The Lions have an NFL-record eight fourth-quarter comebacks this season – did anyone expect their securing a playoff spot to come easy? Nonetheless, Detroit, after falling for the first time in six weeks, 16-3 in New York, plays in Dallas on Monday night with tensions, per usual, at a fever pitch. They’ll host the Packers in Week 17 for what might be an NFC North title game, but if they drop their final two, the Lions could wind up on the outside looking in at the postseason after one of the year’s more improbable stories.

Perhaps not as improbable as the worst-to-first Cowboys, who are one win away from the NFC’s top seed and one removed from Prescott’s silencing of his critics and Elliott celebrating his NFC-leading 13th rushing touchdown by leaping in a Salvation Army kettle.

Indeed, the Christmas football fun figures to carry over into a Monday Night Football showdown with huge playoff implications. Don’t you just love the holidays?

Titans one win from forcing Week 17 AFC South title game at home, which Mike Mularkey can earn by beating former team that just canned his replacement.

JETS AT PATRIOTS

What will it take for us to see Christian Hackenberg make his NFL debut vs. Belichick in Foxborough? The Patriots beat Broncos in Denver to clinch top seed without a TD from Brady.

BUCCANEERS AT SAINTS

Bucs hope Jameis Winston got that fourth quarter in Dallas out of his system for good with time left to recover. Drew Brees isn’t broken, after all, but Saints’ title window might be.

COLTS AT RAIDERS

Where did that come from, Colts, and can you do it twice more? For the first time in 14 years, welcome back to the playoff party, Oakland.

49ERS AT RAMS

Could this be the week the 49ers snap their 13-game losing streak? The Rams might want to sit Jared Goff in order to preserve the allure of their new head-coaching vacancy.

CARDINALS AT SEAHAWKS

Larry Fitzgerald, 33 and a national treasure, leads the NFL with 98 catches. The Seahawks have their fourth NFC West crown in past seven seasons.

BENGALS AT TEXANS

Houston has admitted it has a Brock Osweiler problem and turned to Tom Savage, who’ll make his first start. Will Mike Brown decide after the season he has a Marvin Lewis problem?

RAVENS AT STEELERS

Steelers are the AFC’s hottest club and can lock up the North on Christmas, while the Ravens keep surviving but need two more wins to get in.

BRONCOS AT CHIEFS

Denver, unraveling on and off the field, needs a lot more help than Chiefs, who may have squandered title hopes with ugly home loss but are still in control of top wild card.

LIONS AT COWBOYS

When Dak Prescott says he isn’t distracted by the noise, he apparently means it. Detroit no longer controls NFC North title hopes, magic carpet ride in jeopardy of crashing short of playoffs.

PRO FOOTBALL WEEKLY | ProFootballWeekly.com | THURSDAY, DECEMBER 22, 2016

GIANTS AT EAGLES

Janoris Jenkins avoids serious injury, G-Men can likely avoid letdown without him vs. perhaps NFL’s worst WR corps. Eagles apparently decide not to be an easy out for playoff hopefuls.

PRO FOOTBALL WEEKLY | ProFootballWeekly.com | THURSDAY, DECEMBER 22, 2016

THIS WEEK’S GAMES NYG @ PHI MIA @ BUF TB @ NO NYJ @ NE TEN @ JAX MIN @ GB SD @ CLE WAS @ CHI ATL @ CAR IND @ OAK AZ @ SEA SF @ LA CIN @ HOU BAL @ PIT DEN @ KC DET @ DAL

N.Y. Giants 23, Philadelphia 13 | Big Blue looking like a contender

N.Y. Giants 21, Philadelphia 13 | Giants looking very real now

Miami 27, Buffalo 24 | Fish are hot, Bills a mess right now

Buffalo 18, Miami 15 | Bills rise up for Rex

New Orleans 37, Tampa Bay 31 | Bucs still a year away, Saints score

Tampa Bay 35, New Orleans 32 | Bucs bounce back in shootout

New England 34, N.Y. Jets 16 | Pats rarely take a day off

New England 19, N.Y. Jets 10 | Pats just thinking Super Bowl now

Tennessee 19, Jacksonville 17 | Titans barely avoid the trap here

Tennessee 28, Jacksonville 20 | Titans coming of age

Green Bay 27, Minnesota 16 | Packers smell playoffs, Vikings done

Green Bay 24, Minnesota 10 | The Pack is back, Ty on the run

San Diego 30, Cleveland 17 | What’s the NFL record for no-shows?

San Diego 18, Cleveland 17 | As close as Browns can come

Washington 27, Chicago 23 | Washington’s playoff hopes still alive

Washington 27, Chicago 25 | Bears keep fighting, keep losing

Atlanta 31, Carolina 30 | Falcons barely win, Panthers don’t quit

Atlanta 33, Carolina 30 | A heavyweight slugfest, Falcs on top

Oakland 28, Indianapolis 27 | Imagine if one of these clubs had a ‘D’

Oakland 25, Indianapolis 15 | Colts just don’t have the ‘D’ here

Seattle 23, Arizona 20 | Seahawks need to find answers soon

Seattle 28, Arizona 10 | Cardinals are 2016’s biggest mystery

Los Angeles 17, San Francisco 16 | Two teams only a mother can love

Los Angeles, 23, San Francisco 13 | Rams run Niners ragged

Houston 24, Cincinnati 23 | Texans take to Savage, squeak by

Cincinnati 29, Houston 20 | Texans tank as QB still an issue

Pittsburgh 27, Baltimore 20 | For AFC North title, Steelers reign

Pittsburgh 31, Baltimore 21 | Pitt’s the more complete team

Kansas City 19, Denver 13 | Chiefs want to stick fork in Broncos

Kansas City 34, Denver 24 | Chiefs put Broncos out of misery

Dallas 27, Detroit 24 | Lions just don’t have the horses

Dallas 30, Detroit 15 | Lions just not built for this O-line

PRO FOOTBALL WEEKLY | ProFootballWeekly.com | THURSDAY, DECEMBER 22, 2016

IF REX IS OUT IN BUFFALO, WHO’S IN?

As Adam Schefter first reported Sunday for ESPN, we have been hearing from multiple sources that Rex Ryan’s time is at an end in Buffalo.

Rex Ryan On the face of it, this seems strange when you consider Ryan reportedly has three years remaining on his contract at $5.5 million a year and through one season and 14 games, he is exactly 15-15 – 8-8 last season and 7-7 today.

Why is that awful enough to get fired?

Normally it wouldn’t be, but Ryan is often his own worst enemy.

This season will mark the Bills 17th straight without a trip to the playoffs, the longest drought in the NFL today.

Only the Browns with 14 missed playoffs and the Rams with an even dozen have gone more than a decade without a visit to the postseason.

This past summer, Ryan proclaimed his Bills

AP PHOTO

The Bills have had interest in former head coach Tom Coughlin since last summer

playoff ready and announced anything less than the playoffs this year would be a failure.

But that still isn’t enough on its own to get him canned.

The Way We Hear It, Bills owners Terry and Kim

Pegula – who just bought the team early in the 2014 season and then saw their head coach, Doug Marrone, exercise an out in his contract following the season, forcing them to hire a new coach (Ryan) just a few months after taking over the club – have simply had enough of Ryan’s act.

Ryan is exceedingly brash, arrogant and has never met a microphone or television camera he doesn’t like.

Ironically, that is his coaching style.

Behind the scenes, he can be calm, polite, humble and quite pleasant, but it is reportedly his coaching style that has worn thin quickly with the Pegulas as they’ve assimilated to NFL ownership.

It also has been reported in multiple outlets that Bills general manager Doug Whaley, who oversaw the hiring of Marrone and Ryan, is likely to stay and have a hand in hiring a third head coach, a rare opportunity for an NFL GM. Some have wondered why, since Whaley hasn’t exactly set the world on fire with the Bills’ personnel decisions.

We hear the answer may be because the Pegulas already know who their next head coach is going to be, and that is what is giving them some

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PRO FOOTBALL WEEKLY | ProFootballWeekly.com | THURSDAY, DECEMBER 22, 2016

Tom Coughlin is the frontrunner to replace Rex Ryan in Buffalo

lin’s stature who need to be persuaded, coerced and wined and dined to return to the sidelines, Coughlin can’t wait. We are told he will jump at the first top job that is offered, which may be why the Bills appear ready to move on from Ryan so quickly.

While reports have surfaced of the Jacksonville Jaguars’ interest in Coughlin, they are really as simple as general manager David Caldwell saying “the right thing” at a press conference discussing their head-coaching search.

Coughlin was good but not great – 68-60, four playoffs in eight seasons – as the first-ever coach of the 1995 expansion team. He was fired after consecutive 6-10 seasons.

Relatively new owner Shad Khan – he bought the Jaguars five years ago – will be hiring his third coach in five seasons. After missing on veteran Mike Mularkey and Gus Bradley, we hear he is unlikely to want to take the franchise back 15 seasons for a do-over with Coughlin considering his fairly young roster and Coughlin’s age (71 in August 2017).

As we reported here last week, we continue to hear that Bucs defensive coordinator Mike Smith is the most likely fit in Jacksonville.

Nonetheless, according to our sources, the Pegulas are sold on Coughlin. We hear they could move quickly the week after New Year’s Day to put him in charge of their team.

WHO’S THE BEST FIT IN LOS ANGELES WITH THE RAMS? According to our sources, unlike Jacksonville and the Bills, the Rams’ head-coaching search is likely to be much more protracted and involve a number of top candidates.

The Way We Hear It, that search will absolutely not involve Jim Harbaugh or Pete Carroll, in spite of what a number of wishful thinkers continue to write for various other outlets.

We have not spoken directly to Harbaugh but we do know that his love affair with the University of Michigan is genuine. While it would not be at all surprising to see him take a run at an-

us r o i o ! ic s f l e ck h � D a t Sn al He

other Super Bowl down the road, he is definitely not going anywhere before beating Ohio State, winning Big Ten Championships and taking a real run at a national title with his beloved Maize and Blue.

Harbaugh has plenty of time left for the NFL, but it won’t be coming any time soon.

Carroll is perfectly content in Seattle, under contract through 2019 on a deal he just extended this past summer, and considering the Raiders got two firstround picks, two second-rounders and $8 million for Jon Gruden 15 years ago,

what exactly do you think Carroll would cost the Rams, who don’t have a one or a three in 2017 thanks to the Jared Goff deal?

What we are hearing right now is that the early leader in the clubhouse for the Rams job is Falcons offensive coordinator Kyle Shanahan.

Shallow as it may seem, Shanahan is young, good-looking and energetic, which will be job requirements in Los Angeles.

More importantly, he has impeccable coaching bloodlines from his Super Bowl winning dad. At the age of 37, he already

is one of the most experienced offensive coordinators in the league, having run the show in Houston, Washington, Cleveland and now Atlanta. He also has a reputation as the kind of quarterback whisperer that Goff badly needs.

Shanahan happens to be represented

by Marvin Demoff, whose son Kevin is in his fifth season as Executive V.P. Football Operations and COO of the Rams, so negotiations can be conducted at the dinner table over the holidays with no fear of tampering violations going public.

We’re not accusing, we’re just saying.

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PRO FOOTBALL WEEKLY | ProFootballWeekly.com | THURSDAY, DECEMBER 22, 2016

comfort in making the move on Ryan so quickly.

Their guy may be more than capable of upgrading Whaley’s end of the operation as well or, if necessary, helping in the process of replacing him down the road.

The Way We Hear It, the Pegulas have been in conversations for some time now with Tom Coughlin, and Coughlin is the front-runner to be the next head coach of the Bills following this season.

Reports of the Bills owners’ interest in Coughlin date back to last summer, and our sources are telling us that conversations began again a few weeks ago and that the interest is mutual.

Unlike some former head coaches of Cough-

ProFootballWeekly.com | THURSDAY, DECEMBER 22, 2016

PRO FOOTBALL WEEKLY |

Tips for those still playing in Week 16

By J.C.

offense is 27th in yards and they are traveling to face the Eagles’ 12th-ranked defense. Philly is in last place in the NFC East, but is 4-2 at home. New York has struggled all year on the ground. The Giants are ranked 30th in rushing yards and produce just 81 per game. If a New York RB were to produce, we’d give the nod to Paul Perkins. He ran for 56 yards on 11 carries last week versus the Lions.

Rashad Jennings had 18 carries but produced only 38 yards. Jennings is averaging 3.2 yards per carry this season, down from 4.4 a season ago. This is also not a great fantasy matchup for the Eagles. The Giants give up just 17.9 points per game.

MUST START: Odell Beckham SOLID PLAY: None WORTH A LOOK: Eli Manning, Perkins, Sterling Shepherd, Giants D/ST LAST RESORT: Jennings, Robbie Gould STAY AWAY: Shane Vereen, Victor Cruz, Will Tye

TALON

T

Fantasy writer | ProFootballWeekly.com

his is championship week for most fantasy leagues: A tip of the cap to those of you who are still in the hunt for a title. The holidays have created an unusual NFL schedule, but it appears that no NFL team will be resting their starters for the playoffs … at least for this week.

On to week 16 …

MATCHUPS TO EXPLOIT New England Patriots

OPPONENT: VS NEW YORK JETS, SATURDAY, NOON New England has been held under 30 points eight times this season, but it’s unlikely to get to nine this week. At this point, the Jets are phoning it in … if they’re even bothering to pick up the phone.

Gang Green has been thoroughly embarrassed in two of the last three games. They did beat the pathetic 49ers in Week 14, but gave up 248 yards rushing in that game. Future Hall-of-Famer Matt Moore (assuming Harts High School has a HOF) just lit them up for four TD passes. Martellus Bennett is not filling the void created when Gronk went down. Julian Edelman has 44 catches in the past six games, but only one TD. It’s always risky starting a NE running back. Dion Lewis led the team in carries and yards (18 for 95) last week, but LeGarrette Blount (15 TDs this year) remains the No. 1 option at the goal line.

MUST START: Tom Brady, Blount, Stephen Gostkowski, Patriots D/ST SOLID PLAY: Lewis, Edelman WORTH A LOOK: Bennett, Malcolm Mitchell LAST RESORT: James White, Chris Hogan

Indianapolis Colts

OPPONENT: AT OAKLAND RAIDERS, SATURDAY, 3:05 The Colts have a Jekyll and Hyde offense, to be sure, but they play much better on the road than at home. In their last four away games, Indy has scored 34, 31, 41, and 34 points, respectively. In those four games, they averaged 35 points – 9.1 points better than their season average. In their last four home games, they’ve scored just 60 points – total – an average of 15 per game.

MUST START: Andrew Luck, T.Y. Hilton SOLID PLAY: Donte Moncrief* (if active) Adam Vinatieri WORTH A LOOK: Phillip Dorsett (if no Moncrief) LAST RESORT: Robert Turbin, Erik Swoope, Dwayne Allen, Jack Doyle STAY AWAY: Colts D/ST

Tampa Bay Buccaneers

OPPONENT: AT NEW ORLEANS SAINTS, SATURDAY, 3:25 Jameis Winston threw for just 184 yards and 0 TDs in a 16-11 win against the Saints on Dec. 11.

Logic suggests more points and more yards this time around. The Saints play better at home and average a league-leading 423 yards per game on offense. The Bucs will need to score a bunch to win.

Tampa is in luck: New Orleans gives up 28 points per game.

MUST START: Mike Evans, Cameron Brate SOLID PLAY: Winston, Doug Martin

Cincinnati Bengals

LeGarrette Blount has 15 touchdowns this year WORTH A LOOK: Roberto Aguayo LAST RESORT: Adam Humphries STAY AWAY: Charles Sims, Bucs D/ST

Seattle Seahawks

OPPONENT: VS ARIZONA CARDINALS, SATURDAY, 3:25 These two teams last faced off in Week 7 and battled to a historically bad 6-6 tie. In the seven games since then, the Cardinals have given up 30, 20, 30, 38, 23, 26, and 48 points, respectively, for an average of 30.7 points allowed per game. For the season, only the 49ers yield more points than the Cardinals have given up during that span. Perhaps Arizona has the Seahawks’ number, but this could be a very different game than the last matchup. Seattle is tough at home and is battling for the No. 2 seed in the NFC. MUST START: Jimmy Graham, Seahawks D/ST SOLID PLAY: Russell Wilson, Doug Baldwin, Steven Hauschka WORTH A LOOK: Thomas Rawls, Tyler Lockett

ALSO CONSIDER

Todd Gurley might finally get things going against the 49ers and their atrocious run defense.

Travis Kelce had eight receptions for 101 yards last time the Broncos and Chiefs faced each other.

If Denver’s vaunted pass defense has an Achilles’ heel, it would be tight ends. It should be another good week for LeSean McCoy: the Dolphins give up 4.8 yards per carry. Those in desperate need of a QB could consider Matt Barkley. He has thrown six TDs in his four starts and crested 300 yards twice.

Washington gives up 258 passing yards per game.

The Titans are a sneaky D/ST play this week. Only San Diego and the Jets have turned the ball over more than Jacksonville.

MATCHUPS TO AVOID New York Giants

OPPONENT: AT PHILADELPHIA EAGLES, THURSDAY, 7:25 The Giants may be 10-4, good buddy, but their

OPPONENT: AT HOUSTON TEXANS, SATURDAY, 7:25 The Texans have allowed the fewest yards in the NFL thus far this season. The Bengals are suffering through a miserable season and are particularly bad (2-5) on the road. A.J. Green could return this week.

MUST START: None SOLID PLAY: Green*, Tyler Eifert WORTH A LOOK: Jeremy Hill, Brandon LaFell (if no Green), Bengals D/ST LAST RESORT: Andy Dalton, LaFell (if Green active) STAY AWAY: Randy Bullock

Detroit Lions

OPPONENT: AT DALLAS COWBOYS, MONDAY, 7:30 Detroit is 29th in rushing yards and is averaging a paltry 21.5 points per game. The Lions have compiled a 9-5 record by playing conservative, mistake-free football. That template won’t be good enough to beat the 12-2 Cowboys in Dallas. The NFC Central title will likely come down to Week 17, making this game virtually meaningless to the Lions.

If Theo Riddick (wrist) returns, it could provide a boost to Detroit’s anemic ground game.

MUST START: None SOLID PLAY: Golden Tate WORTH A LOOK: Matthew Stafford, Eric Ebron, Matt Prater LAST RESORT: Riddick*, Dwayne Washington (if no Riddick), Marvin Jones, Anquan Boldin STAY AWAY: Lions D/ST

ALSO BEWARE

The Cowboys D/ST is playing well, but don’t bank your fantasy championship on them. Detroit has turned the ball over just 12 times all season.

Le’Veon Bell managed just 32 yards on 14 carries last time he faced the Ravens. Can’t imagine anyone sitting Bell, but wanted to get that out there.

Brandon Marshall has become an afterthought in the Jets’ passing “attack.” Time to give up on Allen Robinson. He has totaled 11 catches in his last five games. The Titans will likely beat the hapless Jags, but this is not a great matchup for Marcus Mariota. Jacksonville gives up just 210 passing yards per game.

* — Check injury status

By JOHN

I

SAHLY

jsahly@shawmedia.com

n this column space this season, I hope I’ve been able to help with a few lessons in daily fantasy sports.

Most of these lessons revolve around how we think when it comes to constructing a fantasy football roster each week.

How you confront recency bias, why you should take a hard look at some weather patterns (wind) over others (snow), with all of these lessons designed to put you in the best position to put together a winning DFS roster.

This is the last “normal” week of DFS for the season. Week 17 always gets crazy, because an inordinate amount of value plays open up by the end of the week. When teams have basically quit on the season, or others are benching players or playing starters for only a half because a playoff spot is already cemented, underpriced guys become fantasy studs. You’ll be able to do pretty much any stars-and-scrubs lineup you want next week.

But this week, I’m actually looking at some NFL coaches and lessons they’ve learned about their teams this season and trying to apply it for Week 16. Don’t be afraid to try something new.

Ty Montgomery was the fantasy darling of last week, as Green Bay coach Mike McCarthy finally unleashed Montgomery with a full load of carries

Ty Montgomery at running back, leading to 162 yards. His number may be in the 80s, but Montgomery showed every bit the type of burst needed to succeed at running back.

DFS sites still don’t know what price Montgomery should be, and they only recently moved him

to RB. He’s just outside the top 10 running backs in price, with a date against the Vikings, who used to be a good defense.

Bill O’Brien and the Houston Texans finally got wise and benched Brock Osweiler for preseason stud Tom Savage. Savage has three years of experience with O’Brien’s system and, most importantly, an actual connection with DeAndre Hopkins.

Remember Hopkins? The fantasy stud who was one of the highest-priced DFS receivers for most of 2015? He’s back, and got 17 targets last week and his most yards since Week 2. He’s priced right in the middle of WRs this week, and should be a popular play.

Chances are you haven’t put Hopkins on your DFS roster in months, and Savage all year. They’re one of my favorite cheap stacks this week against a Bengals team with nothing to play for at all.

Finally, Todd Gurley. On the PFW Fantasy Football podcast, I’ve made suggestions that Gurley is Trent Richardson 2.0, but even I can’t resist his matchup this week against the 49ers. San Francisco has an all-time terrible rush defense, already giving up the most rushing yards in a season in franchise history – with two games remaining.

Gurley has been nothing short of disappointing this season, but with Jeff Fisher gone and at least something different to play for, why not try someone new like Gurley.

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PRO FOOTBALL WEEKLY | ProFootballWeekly.com | THURSDAY, DECEMBER 22, 2016

DFS: Don’t be afraid to try something new

PRO FOOTBALL WEEKLY | ProFootballWeekly.com | THURSDAY, DECEMBER 22, 2016 Myles Garrett

AP PHOTO

Derek Barnett

AP PHOTO

Tim Williams

AP PHOTO

Every team needs pass rushers, but not every draft has this many potential studs

O

ne thing is certain about the NFL Draft. Every team is always looking for pass rushers and teams will use premium picks to get them. This year, the potential class of edge pass rushers is second to none. I say “potential” class because most are underclassmen and have not yet declared for the draft. Underclassmen have until Jan. 16 to declare.

There could be five or perhaps six edge rushers with first-round grades. The group is led by a bunch of SEC players. The first is Texas A&M’s Myles Garrett. In 2015, he was one of the most dominating players in college football. He hasn’t played as well this year but an ankle sprain has played into that. He has 32.5 career sacks. Garrett has moves and a strong burst to

has great speed and exthe quarterback.

A player giving Garplosiveness as well and outstanding body conrett a run for his money as far as being the trol. Teams will need first edge player off the to check out Williams’ board is Tennessee’s character as there have Derek Barnett. Barnett been some issues in has 32 career sacks and the past. If he checks also 51 career tackles for out, he is easily a top-15 loss. Both players played prospect and perhaps against Alabama’s Cam higher.

Robinson, with BarMissouri’s Charles GREG GABRIEL Harris is another unnett easily having the @greggabe stronger game. Barnett derclassman and has aldoesn’t have the length that Garrett ready declared. He came on strong has and that could make Garrett the in 2016 with 9.0 total sacks. Harris first one selected. has more size than Williams but is The SEC has two other highly equally explosive. thought of pass rushers. At AlaOut west in the Pac-12 is a young, raw player in Takkarist bama, Tim Williams plays outside McKinley. A former junior college linebacker and doesn’t have the transfer, McKinley just keeps getsize of Garrett or Barnett but is a very effective pass rusher. To date ting better. UCLA uses him in a this year, Williams has 8.5 sacks. He variety of ways, but he will most has 19 over the past two seasons. He likely be a 3-4 outside linebacker

in the NFL. McKinley is about 6-2, 260 pounds and very athletic. This year, he had 61 total tackles and 10 sacks. What is fun to watch about McKinley is his motor. He goes all out on every play and is a very physical player.

Back to the SEC, we find a player whose style of play is similar to McKinley and that is Auburn’s Carl Lawson. Lawson is about the same size as McKinley and they are similar athletes. While Lawson is more advanced from a technique point of view, McKinley has the better motor. This year, Lawson led Auburn with 8.0 sacks. He missed a good part of 2015 with an injury.

The next group will include guys such as Taco Charlton from Michigan, DeMarcus Walker from Florida State and Marquis Haynes from Ole Miss. Come draft day, if your team needs a pass rusher, there are plenty to choose from.

32. Stefon Diggs, Vikings (at Packers) 33. Jeremy Maclin, Chiefs (vs Broncos) 34. Dontrelle Inman, Chargers (at Browns) 35. Kelvin Benjamin, Panthers (vs Falcons) 36. Kenny Britt, Rams (vs 49ers)

TIGHT ENDS

Jordan Reed is severely hampered by shoulder. Brate becoming Winston’s go-to in red zone.

1. Greg Olsen, Panthers (vs Falcons) 2. Delanie Walker, Titans (at Jaguars) 3. Cameron Brate, Bucs (at Saints) 4. Jimmy Graham, Seahawks (vs Cardinals) 5. Travis Kelce, Chiefs (vs Broncos) 6. Tyler Eifert, Bengals (at Texans) 7. Zach Ertz, Eagles (vs Giants) 8. Kyle Rudolph, Vikings (at Packers) 9. Hunter Henry, Chargers (at Browns) 10. Martellus Bennett*, Patriots (vs Jets) 11. Eric Ebron, Lions (at Cowboys) 12. Coby Fleener, Saints (vs Bucs) 13. Antonio Gates, Chargers (at Browns) 14. Jared Cook*, Packers (vs Vikings) 15. Charles Clay, Bills (vs Dolphins) 16. C.J. Fiedorowicz*, Texans (vs Bengals) 17. Ladarius Green*, Steelers (vs Ravens) 18. Jordan Reed*, Washington (at Bears) 19. Gary Barnidge, Browns (vs Chargers) 20. Jack Doyle, Colts (at Raiders)

RUNNING BACKS

Bell just 34 yards last game against Ravens. Gurley might finally pay dividends.

1. Ezekiel Elliott, Cowboys (vs Lions) 2. LeSean McCoy, Bills (vs Dolphins) 3. DeMarco Murray, Titans (at Jaguars) 4. David Johnson, Cardinals (at Seahawks) 5. Le’Veon Bell, Steelers (vs Ravens) 6. Jordan Howard, Bears (vs Washington) 7. Devonta Freeman, Falcons (at Panthers) 8. Todd Gurley, Rams (vs 49ers) 9. Jay Ajayi, Dolphins (at Bills) 10. Latavius Murray, Raiders (vs Colts) 11. Carlos Hyde, 49ers (at Rams) 12. Lamar Miller*, Texans (vs Bengals) 13. Spencer Ware, Chiefs (vs Broncos) 14. LeGarrette Blount, Patriots (vs Jets) 15. Jonathan Stewart, Panthers (at Falcons) 16. Robert Kelley, Washington (at Bears) 17. Jeremy Hill, Bengals (at Texans) 18. Frank Gore, Colts (at Raiders) 19. Doug Martin, Bucs (at Saints) 20. Thomas Rawls, Seahawks (vs Cardinals) 21. Mark Ingram, Saints (vs Bucs) 22. Bilal Powell, Jets (at Patriots) 23. Kenneth Farrow, Chargers (at Browns) 24. Ryan Mathews, Eagles (vs Giants) 25. Tevin Coleman, Falcons (at Panthers) 26. Dion Lewis, Patriots (vs Jets) 27. Kenneth Dixon, Ravens (at Steelers) 28. Paul Perkins, Giants (at Eagles) 29. Tim Hightower, Saints (vs Bucs) 30. Adrian Peterson, Vikings (at Packers) 31. Derrick Henry, Titans (at Jaguars) 32. Ty Montgomery, Packers (vs Vikings) 33. Justin Forsett, Broncos (at Chiefs) 34. Mike Gillislee, Bills (vs Dolphins) 35. Chris Ivory, Jaguars (vs Titans) 36. Isaiah Crowell, Browns (vs Chargers)

PLACEKICKERS

Mike Evans

WIDE RECEIVERS

Evans can’t stay quiet forever. Great matchup for Edelman.

1. Mike Evans, Bucs (at Saints) 2. Odell Beckham, Giants (at Eagles) 3. Antonio Brown, Steelers (vs Ravens) 4. T.Y. Hilton, Colts (at Raiders) 5. Julio Jones*, Falcons (at Panthers) 6. Jordy Nelson, Packers (vs Vikings) 7. Julian Edelman, Patriots (vs Jets) 8. Dez Bryant, Cowboys (vs Lions) 9. Amari Cooper, Raiders (vs Colts) 10. Alshon Jeffery, Bears (vs Washington) 11. Michael Crabtree, Raiders (vs Colts) 12. Brandin Cooks, Saints (vs Bucs) 13. Jarvis Landry, Dolphins (at Bills) 14. Davante Adams, Packers (vs Vikings)

AP PHOTO

15. Doug Baldwin, Seahawks (vs Cardinals) 16. Demaryius Thomas, Broncos (at Chiefs) 17. Jamison Crowder, Washington (at Bears) 18. Golden Tate, Lions (at Cowboys) 19. Tyrell Williams, Chargers (at Browns) 20. Rishard Matthews, Titans (at Jaguars) 21. A.J. Green*, Bengals (at Texans) 22. Larry Fitzgerald, Cardinals (at Seahawks) 23. Ty Montgomery, Packers (vs Vikings) 24. Emmanuel Sanders, Broncos (at Chiefs) 25. DeAndre Hopkins, Texans (vs Bengals) 26. DeSean Jackson, Washington (at Bears) 27. Tyreek Hill, Chiefs (vs Broncos) 28. Sammy Watkins, Bills (vs Dolphins) 29. Taylor Gabriel, Falcons (at Panthers) 30. Malcolm Mitchell, Patriots (vs Jets) 31. Steve Smith, Ravens (at Steelers)

1.

Stephen Gostkowski, Patriots (vs Jets) 2. Dan Bailey, Cowboys (vs Lions) 3. Sebastian Janikowski, Raiders (vs Colts) 4. Stephen Hauschka, Seahawks (vs Cardinals) 5. Justin Tucker, Ravens (at Steelers) 6. Matt Bryant, Falcons (at Panthers) 7. Mason Crosby, Packers (vs Vikings) 8. Chris Boswell, Steelers (vs Ravens) 9. Adam Vinatieri, Colts (at Raiders) 10. Josh Lambo, Chargers (at Browns) 11. Dustin Hopkins, Washington (at Bears) 12. Graham Gano, Panthers (vs Falcons) 13. Will Lutz, Saints (vs Bucs) 14. Caleb Sturgis, Eagles (vs Giants) 15. Matt Prater, Lions at (Cowboys)

DEFENSE/SPECIAL TEAMS

1. Seahawks (vs Cardinals) 2. Patriots (vs Jets) 3. Chiefs (vs Broncos) 4. Packers (vs Vikings) 5. Chargers (at Browns) 6. Broncos (at Chiefs) 7. Steelers (vs Ravens) 8. Titans (at Jaguars) 9. Texans (vs Bengals) 10. Bengals (at Texans) 11. Bills (vs Dolphins) 12. Giants (at Eagles) 13. Rams (vs 49ers) 14. Eagles (vs Giants) 15. Ravens (at Steelers)

*Check injury status

PRO FOOTBALL WEEKLY | ProFootballWeekly.com | THURSDAY, DECEMBER 22, 2016

QUARTERBACKS

Luck has much better road numbers.

Brees tries to avenge poor performance at Bucs two weeks ago.

1. Tom Brady, Patriots (vs Jets) 2. Andrew Luck, Colts (at Raiders) 3. Drew Brees, Saints (vs Bucs) 4. Aaron Rodgers, Packers (vs Vikings) 5. Matt Ryan, Falcons (at Panthers) 6. Russell Wilson, Seahawks (vs Cardinals) 7. Philip Rivers, Chargers (at Browns) 8. Ben Roethlisberger, Steelers (vs Ravens) 9. Derek Carr, Raiders (vs Colts) 10. Kirk Cousins, Washington (at Bears) 11. Dak Prescott, Cowboys (vs Lions) 12. Jameis Winston, Bucs (at Saints) 13. Marcus Mariota, Titans (at Jaguars) 14. Cam Newton, Panthers (vs Falcons) 15. Matthew Stafford, Lions (at Cowboys) 16. Joe Flacco, Ravens (at Steelers) 17. Eli Manning, Giants (at Eagles) 18. Tyrod Taylor, Bills (vs Dolphins) 19. Matt Moore, Dolphins (at Bills) 20. Matt Barkley, Bears (vs Washington)

PRO FOOTBALL WEEKLY | ProFootballWeekly.com | THURSDAY, DECEMBER 22, 2016

Skipping bowl games to prepare for the draft?

NATE ATKINS HUB ARKUSH fer advice, there’s no way I’d encourage him to leave his teammates to fend for themselves in their bowl game so he could get a head start on preparing for his next thing. In fact, I’d be adamant in my advice that that is the wrong thing to do.

What if LSU and/or Stanford qualified for the College Football Playoff ? Would Fournette and McCaffrey skip out on that opportunity, too? All that said, I still can’t bring myself to criticize these kids for doing it.

How many millions of dollars did these players help earn for their universities and what did they receive in return? Yes, an opportunity to earn a degree.

But when you have the chance at setting yourself and your children up for life, I can understand not wanting to risk it.

Remember Jaylon Smith?

PATRICK FINLEY DAN McCALEB

Arkush: Dan, I believe it is inexcusable for universities and the NCAA to make the money they do off these kids and to not pay them some significant percentage of that revenue. But I also take exception when I hear these kids aren’t getting paid. The average cost of attending Stanford for a year is in the $75,000 range, and LSU is in the ballpark of $25,000 for Louisianans and $42,000 for an out-of-state student. If they were dumb enough not to take advantage of the opportunities to get a college education for free, that is their and their parents’ faults, not their teammates. I don’t care about the schools that have used them, but I think it is inexcusable to skip out on their teammates, 95 percent of whom will never get a chance to play in the

NFL. There are insurance companies who will gladly insure their future earnings and banks that will gladly lend them the premiums to protect them. I guess my question is, what is their integrity worth and how will NFL clubs look at them selling it out?

McCaleb: I’m sorry, Hub, but I don’t think integrity has anything to do with it, at least not in their minds. Jaylon Smith was projected to be a top-5 pick before he tore his ACL and LCL in the 2016 Fiesta Bowl. He dropped to the second round, costing him millions of dollars in his rookie contract.

He didn’t play a down for the Cowboys this season, and who knows if he ever will. Many of these kids come from poor families, Hub, and the idea that they can take care of their fam-

ilies for generations is a strong one. Good for Jaylon Smith and everyone else who plays in their bowl games. As I said, that’s what I’d strongly encourage. But I still won’t criticize those who won’t. And I also don’t think the NFL gives a hoot about them “selling out.”

NFL clubs care about winning and money, and if any of these players can help them secure either or both, they’ll jump at the chance to draft them. I’ll give you the last word.

Arkush: OK, buddy, but I wish we had the space to get Greg Gabriel in here because I can promise you some, not all but some, NFL personnel folks will downgrade prospects for these kinds of decisions. If they sell out on their college teammates, what’s to keep them from doing it in the NFL? I absolutely agree these kids are in a tough spot and their schools are a huge part of the problem, but knowing they can guarantee themselves millions with insurance – at least the top prospects like McCaffrey and Fournette can – I’m stuck on how many millions are enough when they’re being expected to honor their own commitments.

PRO FOOTBALL WEEKLY | ProFootballWeekly.com | THURSDAY, DECEMBER 22, 2016

I

n this week’s ‘Take 2,’ Pro Football Weekly’s Hub Arkush and Dan McCaleb discuss whether a new developing trend of prospects skipping bowl games to save themselves for the draft is the best decision.

Arkush: Dan, there is a hot button gridiron topic trending over the past few days that starts with the college game but will have a significant impact on the NFL as well, and opinions are likely to be polarizing. All-American running backs Leonard Fournette and Christian McCaffrey have announced they will be skipping their teams’ bowl games – LSU in the Citrus Bowl and Stanford in the Sun Bowl, respectively – to begin their preparations for the NFL Draft. Their decisions are highly unusual if not completely unprecedented. I am not on the fence on this one. In fact, I have a very strong opinion about these young men’s decisions, but it seems I always get to go first.

So this time, let’s start with what say you, McCaleb?

McCaleb: If this were me, or my son, or anyone I knew well enough to be in a position to of-

PRO FOOTBALL WEEKLY | ProFootballWeekly.com | THURSDAY, DECEMBER 22, 2016

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