Pftt 2016 12 15

‘Take 2’ predicts which teams will be headed to the postseason SINCE 1967

THURSDAY | DECEMBER 15, 2016

On the Bubble?

(Left to right) Landon Collins, Mike Evans, Aaron Rodgers and DeMarco Murray

Playoff hopes still remain for the Giants, Bucs, Packers and Titans

PRO FOOTBALL WEEKLY | ProFootballWeekly.com | THURSDAY, DECEMBER 15, 2016

1 NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS 2 DALLAS COWBOYS 3 KANSAS CITY CHIEFS 4 PITTSBURGH STEELERS 5 OAKLAND RAIDERS 6 DETROIT LIONS 7 ATLANTA FALCONS 8 NEW YORK GIANTS 9 GREEN BAY PACKERS 10 SEATTLE SEAHAWKS 11 DENVER BRONCOS 12 BALTIMORE RAVENS 13 TAMPA BAY BUCCANEERS 14 MINNESOTA VIKINGS 15 WASHINGTON 16 MIAMI DOLPHINS 17 HOUSTON TEXANS 18 TENNESSEE TITANS 19 INDIANAPOLIS COLTS 20 BUFFALO BILLS 21 CAROLINA PANTHERS 22 PHILADELPHIA EAGLES 23 ARIZONA CARDINALS 24 SAN DIEGO CHARGERS 25 NEW ORLEANS SAINTS 26 CINCINNATI BENGALS 27 CHICAGO BEARS 28 LOS ANGELES RAMS 29 NEW YORK JETS 30 JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS 31 SAN FRANCISCO 49ERS 32 CLEVELAND BROWNS Who can beat them in a must-win?

Past three have been a lot tougher for Prescott Could be Super but Derrick Johnson is a big loss Starting to play like the team to beat

Really good but defense is a year away Very beatable but they just don’t lose

Were they really that good even without Julio?

That was a statement win over Cowboys Don’t look now but here they come

Will loss of Thomas prove to be too much?

Don’t appear to have the answers on offense In danger of being best team to miss playoffs They’re hot but can they play with the best?

Hanging on by a thread but still hanging on Can be good but they’re not quite good enough Great comeback but loss of Tannehill a bitter pill

Power Rankings Welcome to our ProFootballWeekly.com NFL Week 15 Power Rankings

New England and Dallas switch places atop the rankings this week after the Cowboys’ loss to the Giants and the banged-up Patriots win over a good Ravens team. The Steelers move up three spots to No. 4 after their fourth straight win.

AP PHOTO

Tom Brady and New England move back into the top spot of our rankings with their win over Baltimore Monday night

Pro Football Weekly is produced by Shaw Media, the Daily Herald Media Group and the Chicago Sun-Times in partnership with other Illinois daily newspapers.

Did they save season with win in Indianapolis?

Have they arrived with win over Broncos?

Luck is all the way back but Texans loss a killer Will Rex survive to fight another season?

At this point it’s looking like a lost season

Fighting but just not enough weapons on offense May be biggest underachievers of the season Have they done enough to save Mike McCoy’s job?

7-9, 7-9, 5-8 – why is Sean Payton so safe?

0-7 playoffs, 5-7-1– why is Marvin Lewis so safe?

They haven’t quit, just not very good

They did quit, cost their coach his job

They quit too, will it cost Todd Bowles his job?

Hard to understand how this team is this awful Is Chip Kelly’s job safe? Should it be?

They claim to have a plan but what is it?

A

t just what point will NFL fans say enough is finally enough?

Some, perhaps many, thought the end might be at hand with the news of dramatically diminished TV ratings for the league’s primetime games throughout September and October.

The talk around water coolers everywhere was the shield is in trouble and numerous theories were advanced.

Then came news early this week that last Sunday night’s game between the Giants and Cowboys was the NFL’s highest rated primetime affair since 1989 and a deeper dive showed that ratings for the most part have rebounded nicely since early November.

By far, the greatest impact on the NFL’s early season ratings issues were caused by the train wreck of a presidential election we were all forced to suffer through and that none of us could take our eyes off.

Donald Trump worried early that the presidential debates would suffer from going head-to-head with network TV’s top-rated primetime show, NFL football, when he should have been worried about the damage the debates would do to America’s most popular and success-

that he cares so little ful sports entertainfor them when he anment industry.

But is that really nounced, “We continthe end of the story, ue to be incredibly TV ratings are back excited by the passion and all is well with the and love for the NFL NFL? shown by our millions I think not. of UK fans. London is No, the NFL isn’t in an amazing city. trouble ... yet.

“We have had treThe 32 owners and mendous support Roger Goodell will from our fans, from all get filthy richer (London) Mayor Khan again this season and and other government research studies will leaders and business HUB ARKUSH once again show pro partners, and we are harkush@ProFootballWeekly.com football as the runlooking forward to @Hub_Arkush taking the next step in away favorite among the UK by playing four sports fans this year. games in London next season.”

But the warning signs are still very How much Londoners actually care much there of trouble on the horizon, is an open question, but we do know the slightest of slippage has in fact bethis. gun and Goodell and company continWhen Goodell announced Tuesue to appear blind to the danger their hubris breeds. day that the home teams in those Can the NFL actually get knocked games would be the Jaguars, Doloff its perch? phins, Browns and Rams, the loyal What were the odds 12 months ago season-ticket holders of those teams of Brexit or a Trump presidency? were officially screwed out of a game Early this week, Goodell once again in 2017, leaving them with just seven spat in the faces of his most loyal fans chances to watch their team in person. while telling them all how good it is What benefit of any kind is there to

loyal fans of those four teams, or for that matter any of the 140 million-plus fans of the NFL in this country from playing games in London?

Absolutely none.

And what does it say about Goodell and his owners that the visiting teams in those games will be the Ravens, Saints, Vikings and Cardinals, and of the eight clubs playing in London next year, only three currently have winning records?

Should the fans getting screwed by the loss of these games feel good about the fact the league cares no more about the new customers it is trying to woo by dumping crappy matchups on them?

There are a handful of folks in America right now – basically Goodell, the 32 owners and any other employees and partners who earn revenue, salary and/or bonuses based on profits from the NFL – who have anything to gain at all from moving these games overseas.

The NFL’s millions of fans in America can only lose and Goodell’s strategy is to rub it in our faces.

Should we really doubt this league will eventually devour itself from within?

PRO FOOTBALL WEEKLY | ProFootballWeekly.com | THURSDAY, DECEMBER 15, 2016

NFL shows hubris once again by shipping four games to London in 2017

PRO FOOTBALL WEEKLY | ProFootballWeekly.com | THURSDAY, DECEMBER 15, 2016

Tampa Bay heads to Dallas with postseason hopes still alive

D

By ARTHUR

ARKUSH

aarkush@profootballweekly.com

efensive coordinator Rod Marinelli’s Cowboys are the first team to punch their postseason ticket, so what reason would he have to be envious of the Buccaneers, with whom he cut his NFL coaching teeth, leading up to Sunday night’s flexed-into-primetime reunion?

The good news for Marinelli – besides, you know, being 11-2 and with the Cowboys well on their way from worst to first in the NFC East – is he likely won’t be watching too much film of the Bucs’ ‘D’ this week.

Because if he did, he’d see a unit that’s ex-

The Cowboys’ defensive coordinator Rod Marinelli began his NFL coaching career in Tampa Bay

celled of late with a formula near and dear to Marinelli: a defense that often bends, rarely breaks and feeds off takeaways.

Lots of takeaways.

During the Bucs’ five-game win streak, which has them currently slotted into the final wildcard spot, they’ve notched 14 takeaways, or as many as Marinelli’s Cowboys have in 14 games.

They picked Drew Brees three times Sunday and are tied for the NFL lead with 25 cases of larceny.

The old adage – turnovers are usually forced in bunches – certainly resonates with these Bucs, and Marinelli, whose previous coordinator post, in Chicago, included him overseeing a unit that averaged more than 36 takeaways per season from 2010-12.

Yet, with all due respect to Bucs defensive co-

7:25 p.m. Thursday, NBC All interim Rams coach John Fassel must do is get his team ready on a short week to visit the Seahawks, coming off their worst loss since Pete Carroll’s first season.

DOLPHINS AT JETS

7:25 p.m. Saturday, NFLN Dolphins’ playoff push now in the hands of backup QB Matt Moore. Gang Green, fresh off first win since Week 8, will try and welcome Tannehill replacement rudely.

EAGLES AT RAVENS

12:00 p.m. Sunday, FOX Philly down two RBs as it visits NFL’s best run ‘D,’ likely another long day for Carson Wentz. Baltimore can’t look ahead to AFC North title game in Week 16.

BROWNS AT BILLS

12:00 p.m. Sunday, CBS Playoff drought party! If historic day for Le’Veon Bell didn’t bury Rex Ryan, surely losing to the Browns would do the trick.

PACKERS AT BEARS

12:00 p.m. Sunday, FOX This is the Super Bowl for John Fox’s team this season: a chance to help end the Packers’ NFL-best seven-year playoff streak.

JAGUARS AT TEXANS

12:00 p.m. Sunday, CBS Gus Bradley outlasted Jeff Fisher; let that sink in. Houston saved its season in Indianapolis despite 1-for-5 in the red zone and Osweiler registering a 58.9 rating.

TITANS AT CHIEFS

12:00 p.m. Sunday, CBS After getting rattled by Denver but escaping with a huge win, Mariota’s Titans get another huge AFC West defensive test. Tyreek Hill might be Devin Hester 2.0 for Dave Toub.

Last year’s top overall pick, Jameis Winston, has led Tampa Bay to five consecutive victories

ordinator Mike Smith, one of the NFL’s hotter retread head-coaching candidates this offseason, he has a lot of skilled playmakers, unlike Marinelli.

The trio of Gerald McCoy, Robert Ayers and rookie Noah Spence have increasingly wreaked havoc on quarterbacks, setting up, among others, Brent Grimes, top pick Vernon Hargreaves and reserve safety Keith Tandy, who’s only secured game-sealing interceptions each of the past two games – in his first two starts of the season.

On the second level, the dynamic pairing of Lavonte David and Kwon Alexander cover a ton of ground and get their hands on plenty of footballs.

Meanwhile, Marinelli would be on any short list of the game’s best coordinators this season in large part because the sum of his defense – 16th in yards but fifth in scoring – is much greater than its parts.

Weak-side linebacker Sean Lee has recaptured his special-when-healthy form with a monstrous 130 tackles – No. 2 in the NFL – to go along with 11 behind the line. But there simply aren’t difference-makers aside from Lee on this unit, which lacks a great edge rusher, cover corner and formidable interior presence.

It’s no wonder, then, we see the NFL’s best rookie tandem of Dak Prescott and Zeke Elliott so often both in headlines and on the field, where Dallas is No. 2 in the NFL in rushing and time of possession largely in an effort to protect their defensive counterparts.

Therein lies the beauty of this game: the Cowboys had moved up and down the field at will prior to their two most meager offensive show-

AP PHOTO

ings coming over the past two Thursday nights on the road against great defenses, holding them to a total of 24 points, two (!) third-down conversions and just 524 yards. Tampa cedes a lot of yards, but also seizes plenty of opportunities defensively. Prescott is coming off just his second multi-interception game, immediately sounding the Tony Romo-should-be-starting siren for many.

How will Prescott respond? Will Smith ramp up the pressure after seeing the defensive success of aggressive game plans from Minnesota and New York? Can the road warrior Bucs improve to 6-1 away from Tampa, matching Dallas’ NFC-best visitor’s mark?

With all the defensive discussion, we must also mention the interesting juxtaposition of two rising stars under center. Prescott is a compensatory fourth-rounder and modern day Wally Pipp; Jameis Winston is the former No. 1 overall pick handed the keys on offense and needed to be the face of the franchise from Day One. Both have galvanized their respective fan bases and locker rooms.

The Cowboys won 11 consecutive games prior to their trip to New York a week ago, when the first signs of chinks in their offensive armor appeared. No other team has longer than a sixgame winning streak, which Tampa will look to secure Sunday night.

Dallas has already earned the right to play postseason football one year after finishing in the NFC East basement. The 2015 NFC South bottom-dwelling Bucs can take a significant step toward joining them Sunday night. That, of course, would be the biggest takeaway of all this season.

COLTS AT VIKINGS

12:00 p.m. Sunday, FOX Colts brass just received extensions, yet it’s hard to envision Jim Irsay standing pat if Colts stay home in January again. This could be the week Adrian Peterson returns to Vikings.

LIONS AT GIANTS

12:00 p.m. Sunday, FOX The No. 2 seed is up for grabs in this one, which pits two of our favorite coaching names, Jim Bob Cooter (future head coach) and Ben McAdoo (Coach of Year candidate).

STEELERS AT BENGALS

12:00 p.m. Sunday, CBS Have yourself a contract year, Le’Veon Bell. Steelers needed all 298 total yards, three scores in Buffalo slop fest. Adam Jones thinks Terrelle Pryor is a garbage can, much like Bengals’ season?

SAINTS AT CARDINALS

3:05 p.m. Sunday, FOX Drew Brees’ past two games: 0 TDs, 6 INTs. Cards’ season so far off rails Bruce Arians thinks Mother Nature is conspiring against them.

49ERS AT FALCONS

3:05 p.m. Sunday, FOX Everyone assuming Cleveland was a lock for top pick may have given Trent Baalke’s Niners too much credit. Matt Ryan’s NFC South-leading Falcons have weapons for days.

PATRIOTS AT BRONCOS

3:25 p.m. Sunday, CBS With season on brink, Super Bowl champs host Tom Brady seeking revenge for 2015 AFC Championship game defeat.

RAIDERS AT CHARGERS

3:25 p.m. Sunday, CBS Big spot for Derek Carr, Raiders after having extra time to recover from first hiccup in seven weeks. An offseason to recover – and relocate? – can’t come soon enough for battered Bolts.

BUCCANEERS AT COWBOYS

7:30 p.m. Sunday, NBC Bucs, riding five-game win streak, aim to join fellow 2015 bottom-dwellers Cowboys in the playoffs. Dallas is in, but Dak must recover to avoid falling out of Jerry’s favor.

PANTHERS AT WASHINGTON

7:30 p.m. Monday, ESPN Too little too late, but Carolina suddenly leading NFL in sacks, No. 2 in INTs; Washington avoided three-game tumble with late comeback in Philly to maintain control of playoff fate.

PRO FOOTBALL WEEKLY | ProFootballWeekly.com | THURSDAY, DECEMBER 15, 2016

RAMS AT SEAHAWKS

PRO FOOTBALL WEEKLY | ProFootballWeekly.com | THURSDAY, DECEMBER 15, 2016

THIS WEEK’S GAMES LA @ SEA MIA @ NYJ GB @ CHI JAX @ HOU CLE @ BUF PHI @ BAL TEN @ KC DET @ NYG IND @ MIN PIT @ CIN NO @ AZ SF @ ATL NE @ DEN OAK @ SD TB @ DAL CAR @ WAS

Seattle 27, Los Angeles 13 | Rams have habit lately of not showing up

Seattle 31, Los Angeles 3 | Seahawks bounce back big after Pack

Miami 23, N.Y. Jets 13 | Matt Moore 1 of game’s best backup QBs

N.Y. Jets 19, Miami 17 | Jets show some pride, Miami misses QB

Green Bay 31, Chicago 20 | Pack is starting to roll now

Green Bay 28, Chicago 10 | Bears aren’t built for this even with Jeffery

Houston 20, Jacksonville 10 | Texans desperate and it’s too late for Jags

Houston 24, Jacksonville 17 | Jags done while Texans hanging on

Buffalo 30, Cleveland 16 | Bills get someone to beat up on

Buffalo 24, Cleveland 17 | Rex needs to run it up to keep job

Baltimore 23, Philadelphia 13 | Ravens must win out, Eagles’ ship sailed

Baltimore 26, Philadelphia 10 | Ravens know they have to win out

Kansas City 24, Tennessee 16 | KC has pedigree, don’t lose at home

Kansas City 15, Tennessee 10 | Chiefs been here before, not young Titans

N.Y. Giants 20, Detroit 17 | Giants more talented of these upstarts

N.Y. Giants 24, Detroit 17 | Giants feeling good after Cowboys win

Minnesota 26, Indianapolis 20 | Vikes’ ‘D’ keeps hope alive for a week

Minnesota 17, Indianapolis 10 | Vikings’ front seven comes alive in this one

Pittsburgh 27, Cincinnati 23 | Burfict best have head on a swivel

Pittsburgh 21, Cincinnati 10 | Steelers don’t lose these late in season

Arizona 31, New Orleans 27 | Teams playing for nothing but to score points

Arizona 41, New Orleans 34 | Arians won’t let ‘Zona quit

Atlanta 41, San Francisco 13 | This will get ugly early as Niners phone it in

Atlanta 45, San Francisco 10 | Niners’ mess no match for Falcons’ ‘O’

New England 20, Denver 16 | Broncos slow Brady, but how do they score?

New England 31, Denver 17 | Broncos are reeling, Patriots are rolling

Oakland 27, San Diego 26 | Bolts give them a scare, Raiders hang on

Oakland 32, San Diego 20 | Raiders 6-1 away from Oakland

Dallas 20, Tampa Bay 16 | Prescott struggling but Zeke claims this one

Dallas 25, Tampa Bay 12 | Bucs ‘D’ can’t handle Cowboys O-line

Washington 27, Carolina 23 | Washington very much in wild card hunt

Washington 31, Carolina 21 | Josh Norman gets his revenge

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PRO FOOTBALL WEEKLY | ProFootballWeekly.com | THURSDAY, DECEMBER 15, 2016

Has Shad Khan already identified Gus Bradley’s successor in Jacksonville?

I

t appears 2016 is going to be a slow year for head coaching changes in the NFL. Normally in recent seasons

by Week 15, there have been at least a half dozen and usually more coaches very much on the bubble.

Jeff Fisher became the first domino to fall on Monday following the Rams’ 42-14 loss to the Falcons.

There are multiple reports that Rex Ryan could be in trouble in Buffalo. Some believe Todd Bowles could be out after the season with the Jets and others suggest John Fox might get the axe in Chicago.

The Way We Hear It, however, both Bowles and Fox are likely to survive and be given a chance to turn things around in their third seasons with their respective clubs.

Mike McCoy appears to have dodged a bullet in San Diego after starting 1-4 by going 4-4 since, but the Chargers have dropped their last two.

Marvin Lewis probably deserves

ville. There’s a chance Buffalo opens up and we won’t be shocked if the Chargers make a change.

WHO ARE THE HOTTEST CANDIDATES OUT THERE?

Mike Smith may be in line to replace Jaguars head coach Gus Bradley the axe in Cincinnati, but few believe Mike Brown will wield it, and we’re not convinced even Chip Kelly knows what his next move will be.

Beyond that, there may be a surprise or two. Other than Fisher,

though, the only other guy who is certainly a dead man walking is Gus Bradley in Jacksonville.

So for the most part, what we’re hearing is the only jobs certain to be open are in Los Angeles and Jackson-

We are hearing you can bet the house on Josh McDaniels (Patriots OC), Kyle Shanahan (Falcons OC), Jim Bob Cooter (Lions OC), Teryl Austin (Lions DC) and Matt Patricia (Patriots DC) all getting interviews and most likely multiple interviews.

The second tier of candidates will include Dave Toub (Chiefs ST), Vance Joseph (Dolphins DC), Jim Schwartz (Eagles DC), Anthony Lynn (Bills OC), Sean McDermott (Panthers DC), Scott Linehan (Cowboys OC) and Tom Coughlin.

Heading the wild card list is Jim Harbaugh, who multiple pundits rushed to encourage Stan Kroenke to do whatever it takes to pry out of Ann Arbor, but we’re hearing that won’t happen.

Other names you will probably

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IS BRADLEY’S REPLACEMENT SET TO GO IN JACKSONVILLE?

There is one very hot name we’ve saved because, the Way We Hear It, he might already have a job, and that’s Tampa Bay defensive coordinator and former Atlanta Falcons head coach Mike Smith.

Sources have told us that Smith might believe the Jaguars job is his if he wants it, and that he has already begun reaching out to candidates to put a staff of assistants together.

To be clear, Jaguars owner Shad Khan has not confirmed that Gus Bradley will be fired, and we at Pro Football Weekly do not wish to play any role in promoting the loss of his job, but we have confirmed with multiple sources very close to the situation there is next to nothing Bradley can do now to save that job after going 14-47 though three seasons and 13 games.

There are multiple dots you can

Josh McDaniels

Kyle Shanahan

Jim Bob Cooter

connect to get Smith to Jacksonville, but a number of them depend on whether Khan intends to retain general manager David Caldwell and allow him a second shot at hiring a head coach.

Caldwell’s first act after getting the Jaguars GM job was to fire Mike Mularkey and hire Bradley.

According to our sources, Khan believes the Jaguars’ talent is better than the record indicates and that Caldwell will get another crack at hiring a coach.

So let’s look at the multiple ways in which Smith fits in Jacksonville.

He spent five seasons in Jacksonville as the club’s defensive coordinator from 2003-07 under Jack Del Rio and was so successful the Atlanta Falcons hired him to be their head coach in 2008.

That same year, the Falcons hired

Teryl Austin

Matt Patricia

Caldwell to be the director of college scouting, a position he held through the end of the 2011 season, when he was promoted to personnel director in 2012.

Following the 2012 season, Caldwell got the Jaguars GM job.

In his first year as Falcons head coach, Smith was voted the 2008 NFL Coach of the Year for guiding Atlanta to an 11-5 record and wild-card birth, after taking over a 4-12 football team.

During the five years Caldwell and Smith worked together in Atlanta, Smith compiled a 56-24 record and took the Falcons to the playoffs four times.

In their final season together, the Falcons were 13-3 and lost to San Francisco, 28-24, in the NFC title game.

It is easy to see why, if he is allowed

to make this hire, Caldwell would favor Smith, and there is more.

In just his first season as the defensive coordinator in Tampa this year, after a 3-5 start, the Bucs have won their past five with most of the credit going to improvement in Smith’s defense, which has allowed just 12.8 points a game, including five to Seattle and 11 to the high-powered Saints offense last week.

There is also a belief in Jacksonville that with exciting youngsters Jalen Ramsey, Dante Fowler Jr., Myles Jack, Yannick Ngakoue, and highpriced free agents Malik Jackson, Tashaun Gipson, Davon House and Prince Amukamara, the right defensive coach just might be able to guide the same kind of instant turnaround as the one Smith oversaw in Atlanta in 2008.

We’re also hearing that even though there are a ton of hot young coordinators out there, the hottest are almost all on the offensive side of the ball, and after the disappointing experience with Gus Bradley – who was absolutely the flavor of the month four years ago after working as the Seahawks defensive coordinatior – Khan and Caldwell both are more comfortable with a proven veteran winner this time around.

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PRO FOOTBALL WEEKLY | ProFootballWeekly.com | THURSDAY, DECEMBER 15, 2016

hear are Penn State’s James Franklin, former Super Bowl-winning coach Jon Gruden, and what would this list be if Bill Cowher wasn’t on it?

ProFootballWeekly.com | THURSDAY, DECEMBER 15, 2016

PRO FOOTBALL WEEKLY |

Check the weather forecasts as fantasy playoffs begin

By J.C.

I

TALON

Fantasy writer | ProFootballWeekly.com

f you’re still playing fantasy football, congratulations are in order. The smarts that got you to the postseason will come in handy this week. According to oddsmakers, points will be hard to come by. Three games have projected point totals under 40, and five more come in under 43. Not coincidentally, up to 10 games could be impacted by cold or snow.

To gain an advantage in your playoff matchup, be sure to monitor injury and weather reports right up until kickoff.

On to Week 15 …

MATCHUPS TO EXPLOIT Buffalo Bills

OPPONENT: VS CLEVELAND BROWNS, SUNDAY, NOON Tyrod Taylor has to be thankful – despite continued struggles – he remains the starting QB in Buffalo. What a bummer it would have been to get benched just as the hapless Browns are coming to town. Cleveland’s defense is ranked 31st overall and against the rush. The Bills can’t beat the top-tier teams, but they are 5-1 against opponents with a losing record. Taylor is an intriguing option for fantasy owners in need of a playoff QB. The advice here would be to find a better option: Taylor has faced two bottom-five defenses this season (San Francisco and Oakland). Against SF, at home, he threw for two TDs, but had only 179 yards passing. He added 68 yards on the ground. In Oakland, he threw for 191 yards with no TDs, although he did run for a score. Those who start Taylor have to hope for ground production, and that’s always an iffy proposition. This is, however, a dream matchup for LeSean McCoy. There could also be some mop-up duty for Mike Gillislee.

MUST START: McCoy, Bills D/ST SOLID PLAY: Sammy Watkins WORTH A LOOK: Taylor, Gillislee, Charles Clay, Dan Carpenter LAST RESORT: None STAY AWAY: Robert Woods

Green Bay Packers

OPPONENT: AT CHICAGO BEARS, SUNDAY, NOON During their current three-game win streak, the Packers have averaged 28.7 points per game. From a fantasy perspective, there was never anything to worry about. Even as they dropped four straight from Week 8 through Week 11, they were averaging 26.8 points per game. Chicago actually has a solid defense, but the Packers will eventually wear them down. There is snow in Chicago’s weekend forecast and that will make the always-dicey Soldier Field turf even more problematic for defenders. Davante Adams is Green Bay’s over-the-top threat, but Aaron Rodgers looks for Jordy Nelson in the red zone.

This would be a good week to consider the Packers D/ST. If Green Bay gets out to a big lead (a distinct possibility), Bears QB Matt Barkley will be forced to throw, and that could lead to turnovers.

MUST START: Rodgers, Nelson SOLID PLAY: Adams, Mason Crosby, Packers D/ST WORTH A LOOK: Ty Montgomery, Randall Cobb LAST RESORT: Christine Michael, Jared Cook* STAY AWAY: James Starks

Atlanta Falcons

OPPONENT: VS SAN FRANCISCO 49ERS, SUNDAY, 3:05 This one seems almost too easy: the Falcons’ top-scoring offense versus the 49ers and their league-worst defense. The only real question is whether or not Julio Jones (toe) will suit up for Atlanta. If he does, he’s probably the No. 1 WR this week. If he doesn’t go, move Taylor Gabriel and Nick Williams up one category. Devonta Freeman hasn’t had a 100-yard rushing game since Week 3 and was held to six yards on six carries in L.A. He should bounce back this week.

MUST START: Matt Ryan, Freeman, Jones, Matt Bryant SOLID PLAY: Tevin Coleman, Falcons D/ST WORTH A LOOK: Taylor Gabriel LAST RESORT: Nick Williams STAY AWAY: Levine Toilolo, Austin Hooper

Oakland Raiders

OPPONENT: AT SAN DIEGO CHARGERS, SUNDAY, 3:25 Only three teams give up more points than San Diego. The Raiders are coming off a very disappointing performance last Thursday in Kansas City.

Derek Carr was awful, which has led to speculation that his injured finger is worse than reported. Others have countered that Carr’s finger is OK based on the fact he played well after injuring the finger during Week 13. There is no way to know for sure, and you can bet that the Raiders will not provide any clues. Our best guess is that he finished Week 13 on adrenaline. In Week 14, he struggled in part due to the finger, but also because of the cold weather and a solid KC defense. With 10 days to adapt, heal and prepare, and facing a lesser defense in good weather, he should be fine.

MUST START: Carr, Amari Cooper SOLID PLAY: Latavius Murray, Michael Crabtree, Sebastian Janikowski WORTH A LOOK: None LAST RESORT: Jalen Richard, Seth Roberts, Clive Walford, Raiders D/ST

ALSO CONSIDER Seattle Seahawks

OPPONENT: VS LOS ANGELES RAMS, THURSDAY, 7:25 We hate Thursday games and the Seahawks looked absolutely atrocious last week in Green Bay. The Rams have the league’s 10th-ranked defense and are eighth against the pass. So why are we telling you to consider Seattle? L.A. is an absolute trainwreck right now. They’ve given up 117 points in their past three games. There is no way to know how the Rams will respond to the firing of Jeff Fisher, but let’s not overthink it.

MATCHUPS TO AVOID Detroit Lions

OPPONENT: AT NEW YORK GIANTS, SUNDAY, NOON In their past five games, the Giants have yielded more than 20 points just one time – at Pittsburgh in a 24-14 loss. The Lions have a middling offense: 17th in points, 14th in passing, and a dismal 29th in rushing. With New York ranked eighth against the rush, this is not the week for the Lions to get the ground game going. Monitor the status of Theo Riddick, al-

though any offensive success Detroit is going to have will likely have to come through the air. Eric Ebron is a reasonable fantasy option this week. The Giants have given up a lot of yards to TEs in recent weeks.

MUST START: None SOLID PLAY: Ebron WORTH A LOOK: Matthew Stafford*, Golden Tate, Matt Prater, Lions D/ST LAST RESORT: Riddick*, Dwayne Washington (if no Riddick), Marvin Jones STAY AWAY: Zach Zenner

Houston Texans

OPPONENT: VS JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS, SUNDAY, NOON With Houston averaging 17.6 points (28th in the league) and Jacksonville averaging 18.5 (27th), it’s no wonder that the over/under in this game is a paltry 39.5. We have selected the Texans as the “avoid” simply because we assume – if you’ve made the playoffs – you already know to avoid the Jags. It’s been a miserable season for Jacksonville, but it’s not because of its fifth-ranked defense. The Jags are great against the pass, but their rushing defense can be exploited. Unfortunately, Houston has a problem, and his name is Brock Osweiler.

Jacksonville is not going to respect the pass. When Lamar Miller looks at the line of scrimmage, he is going to see a lot of eight-man fronts wearing ugly black-and-gold helmets.

MUST START: Texans D/ST SOLID PLAY: Miller WORTH A LOOK: C.J. Fiedorowicz*, DeAndre Hopkins, Nick Novak LAST RESORT: Alfred Blue, Will Fuller STAY AWAY: Osweiler

Indianapolis Colts

OPPONENT: AT MINNESOTA VIKINGS, SUNDAY, NOON Although the Colts have the league’s 9th-ranked passing attack, this is an extremely difficult matchup for them. They have not fared well against strong pass defenses. Indy scored just 17 points last week against Houston; just seven in Week 12 against Pittsburgh; and only 14 in a Week 8 loss against KC. Interestingly, those were all home games. Minnesota’s defense is ranked second overall and third against the pass. As much as we’d like to list T.Y. Hilton as a “must start,” the Vikings have given up just one 100-yard receiving day all season and that was last week to Marqise Lee (113 yards). Donte Moncrief may miss the game due to a hamstring injury.

MUST START: None SOLID PLAY: Andrew Luck, Hilton WORTH A LOOK: Frank Gore, Adam Vinatieri LAST RESORT: Phillip Dorsett (if no Moncrief), Dwayne Allen, Jack Doyle, Colts D/ST STAY AWAY: Robert Turbin

ALSO BEWARE

Philadelphia Eagles

OPPONENT: AT BALTIMORE RAVENS, SUNDAY, NOON It’s hard to imagine Philadelphia generating much offense against the Ravens and their No. 1 rushing defense. The Eagles are 1-6 on the road this season.

* — Check injury status

By JOHN

SAHLY

O

jsahly@shawmedia.com

K, so admittedly the photo with this article is a bit of an overstatement.

You were playing Le’Veon Bell last week in DFS, right? You for sure had him going in your season-long league.

But Bell was the second-most expensive running back in DFS last week behind Arizona’s David Johnson. And the Pittsburgh running back did not disappoint, rushing for a Steelers franchise-record 236 yards and three touchdowns.

That was good for 54 points on DraftKings, which said Bell’s performance was the fourth-highest single-game fantasy total in site history.

Look at the photo again. Do you see something?

A whole bunch of white flakes? The Steelers and Bills played in about four inches of snow this past Sunday.

It. Did. Not. Stop. Bell. From. History.

We’re in December, and as long as there are outdoor games in December, there’s a chance that a few players you’re considering putting onto your DFS rosters each week will be playing in some

kind of nasty weather.

There are weather elements to be concerned about, snow is not one of them, especially for running backs. Three years ago, in blizzard conditions, LeSean McCoy ran for 217 yards and two touchdowns for the Eagles against the Lions. Two weeks ago, Bears rookie Jordan Howard found the end zone three times against the 49ers.

But quarterbacks and wide receivers aren’t immune to having good games in the snow and cold, either. Fantasy Labs writer Kelly McCann pointed out last week that Aaron Rodgers has averaged 25.94 DraftKings points in games with below freezing temperatures. Matthew Stafford averaged 23.75 in two below-freezing games in the past three seasons. Brandon Marshall has three below freezing games under his belt, and scored at least 28 points in all three.

This doesn’t mean you should actively target a player because of bad weather, but the point is to not be afraid of doing it. If other DFS players are going to take a look at the weather, see snow or rain in the forecast and immediately write off certain guys, a successful and potentially contrarian strat-

Le’Veon Bell

AP PHOTO

egy is to put those players on your roster, with the added bonus of reduced ownership.

So when should you be concerned about a player in bad weather?

Check the wind.

Meteorologist and Rotogrinders writer Kevin Roth put it this way in a tweet: “To me, 15mph sustained is on the low end of ‘worry-spectrum’. By 20-25mph sustained I’m concerned. Stronger than that and I’m out.”

It makes sense. Sustained high winds are going to affect a passing game in a dramatic way. I want no part of a quarterback, wide receiver or tight end in a windy game. Instead, look for the defenses in those games as potential sources of wayward interceptions, and points for you.

Weather is one of the easiest ways to separate yourself from an opponent in fantasy sports, but you have to know what you’re looking for first.

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PRO FOOTBALL WEEKLY | ProFootballWeekly.com | THURSDAY, DECEMBER 15, 2016

DFS: Stop worrying about snow in fantasy football, worry about wind instead

PRO FOOTBALL WEEKLY | ProFootballWeekly.com | THURSDAY, DECEMBER 15, 2016

AP PHOTO

How good of an NFL QB can Deshaun Watson become?

T

he strength or weakness of the quarterback class in the 2017 NFL Draft will depend on how many underclassmen at the position enter. As of now, there is only one junior quarterback who has entered the draft and that is Clemson’s Deshaun Watson.

Watson has put up some excellent numbers the past two years, but how good can he become in the NFL? To date this year, Watson has completed 329-of-487 passes for a 67 percent completion rate, 3,914 yards, 37 touchdowns and 15 interceptions. In 2015, he was 333-of-491 for 4,104 yards, 35 touchdowns and 13 interceptions.

His career completion percentage is close to 68.

Watson is listed as being 6-3, 215 pounds. Most scouts who have seen him in person say it’s more like 6-1½ and 205 pounds. We will find out for sure at the Combine. Regardless, he has a lean frame and will never be optimum NFL size.

As an athlete, he has quick feet,

very good speed (4.60 estiPitt were two of those mated 40-yard dash) and games, when he threw excellent body control. three interceptions in He has excellent maneueach. That said, he also verability in the pocket, threw for more than 800 a very good feel for pass yards and eight touchdowns in those contests. rushers and can make While he will make the and extend plays with occasional poor decision his feet. He also does a and poor throw, he also great job throwing the makes some throws that ball with accuracy while on the run.

GREG GABRIEL few college quarterbacks can make. He has some Watson plays in a fair@greggabe ly simple spread offense gunslinger to him and and for the most part it is a halfthat can be both good and bad. He field-read scheme. He usually has can make all the throws required to two reads and possibly a check-down be a solid NFL quarterback.

Going into the season, Watson receiver. In all the games I viewed, was the favorite to be the top pick in he never looked at the opposite side the draft. Then he got off to a slow of the field. start and people started critiquing As a passer, Watson has a quick his game. He bounced back to have release and good to very good arm an excellent overall season and lead strength. He throws a tight ball Clemson to the College Football and for the most part his ball placement is good. He generally does a Playoff. That says a lot about his good job seeing the field and usualleadership skills. ly makes good decisions. There are Looking ahead, Watson has the times when he gets impatient and talent to become a very good NFL will force the ball. Louisville and quarterback, but he will need to go

through a period of learning. It will take him some time to adjust to an NFL-style offense and learn to play in a full-field-read scheme. He will get drafted very high, but the worst thing that could happen to him is being forced to play early. He needs to sit and learn for a good part if not all of his rookie season. This will take him through the learning curve and prepare him for success.

He will also need a quality quarterback coach and offensive coordinator. Many young quarterbacks fail because they are forced to play too soon and don’t have the proper mentors around to guide them.

There is a chance that Watson could be the first quarterback drafted and depending on what other quarterbacks enter the draft, maybe as low as the third. But I am certain that if he is put in the right situation, he will become very good.

Dak Prescott and Carson Wentz have had excellent rookie seasons because of the support they have in Dallas and Philly. Let’s hope Watson gets the same.

32. Allen Robinson, Jaguars (at Texans) 33. Jordan Matthews, Eagles (at Ravens) 34. Brandon Marshall, Jets (vs. Dolphins) 35. Rishard Matthews, Titans (at Chiefs) 36. Jeremy Maclin*, Chiefs (vs. Titans)

TIGHT ENDS

Aaron Rodgers

AP PHOTO

RUNNING BACKS

Another big day for Bell? Bengals give up 4.5 yards per carry.

1. Le’Veon Bell, Steelers (at Bengals) 2. Ezekiel Elliott, Cowboys (vs. Bucs) 3. David Johnson, Cards (vs. Saints) 4. LeSean McCoy, Bills (vs. Browns) 5. Devonta Freeman, Falcons (vs. 49ers) 6. Jordan Howard, Bears (vs. Packers) 7. DeMarco Murray, Titans (at Chiefs) 8. Jay Ajayi, Dolphins (at Jets) 9. Latavius Murray, Raiders (at Chargers) 10. Lamar Miller, Texans (vs. Jaguars) 11. Thomas Rawls, Seahawks (vs. Rams) 12. Spencer Ware, Chiefs (vs. Titans) 13. Carlos Hyde, 49ers (at Falcons) 14. LeGarrette Blount, Patriots (at Broncos) 15. Jonathan Stewart, Panthers (at Wash.)

16. Jeremy Hill, Bengals (vs. Steelers) 17. Robert Kelley, Washington (vs. Panthers) 18. Doug Martin, Bucs (at Cowboys) 19. Tevin Coleman, Falcons (vs. 49ers) 20. Frank Gore, Colts (at Vikings) 21. Bilal Powell, Jets (vs. Dolphins) 22. Todd Gurley, Rams (at Seahawks) 23. Kenneth Dixon, Ravens (vs. Eagles) 24. Mark Ingram, Saints (at Cards) 25. Rashad Jennings, Giants (vs. Lions) 26. Ryan Mathews, Eagles (at Ravens) 27. Kenneth Farrow, Chargers (vs. Raiders) 28. T.J. Yeldon, Jaguars (at Texans) 29. Jerick McKinnon, Vikings (vs. Colts) 30. Tim Hightower, Saints (at Cardinals) 31. Matt Asiata, Vikings (vs. Colts) 32. Mike Gillislee, Bills (vs. Browns) 33. Dion Lewis, Patriots (at Broncos) 34. Isaiah Crowell, Browns (at Bills) 35. Alfred Blue, Texans (vs. Jaguars) 36. Paul Perkins, Giants (vs. Lions)

Kelce No. 1 on this list three weeks in a row. Green emerging for Steelers.

1. Travis Kelce, Chiefs (vs. Titans) 2. Tyler Eifert, Bengals (vs. Steelers) 3. Jimmy Graham, Seahawks (vs. Rams) 4. Greg Olsen, Panthers (at Washington) 5. Delanie Walker, Titans (at Chiefs) 6. Cameron Brate, Bucs (at Cowboys) 7. Ladarius Green, Steelers (at Bengals) 8. Kyle Rudolph, Vikings (vs. Colts) 9. Zach Ertz, Eagles (at Ravens) 10. Martellus Bennett*, Patriots (at Broncos) 11. Jordan Reed, Washington (vs. Panthers) 12. Eric Ebron, Lions (at Giants) 13. C.J. Fiedorowicz*, Texans (vs. Jaguars) 14. Dennis Pitta, Ravens (vs. Eagles) 15. Coby Fleener, Saints (at Cardinals) 16. Antonio Gates, Chargers (vs. Raiders) 17. Jason Witten, Cowboys (vs. Bucs) 18. Charles Clay, Bills (vs. Browns) 19. Jared Cook*, Packers (at Bears) 20. Dwayne Allen, Colts (at Vikings)

PLACEKICKERS

Odell Beckham Jr.

WIDE RECEIVERS

Owners smart enough to have picked up Watkins reap benefits this week.

1. Odell Beckham, Giants (vs. Lions) 2. Antonio Brown, Steelers (at Bengals) 3. Amari Cooper, Raiders (at Chargers) 4. Jordy Nelson, Packers (at Bears) 5. Mike Evans, Bucs (at Cowboys) 6. Dez Bryant, Cowboys (vs. Bucs) 7. Larry Fitzgerald, Cardinals (vs. Saints) 8. T.Y. Hilton, Colts (at Vikings) 9. Julio Jones*, Falcons (vs. 49ers) 10. Doug Baldwin, Seahawks (vs. Rams) 11. Demaryius Thomas, Broncos (vs. Patriots) 12. Tyreek Hill, Chiefs (vs. Titans) 13. Sammy Watkins, Bills (vs. Browns) 14. Davante Adams, Packers (at Bears)

AP PHOTO

15. Alshon Jeffery, Bears (vs. Packers) 16. Michael Crabtree*, Raiders (at Chargers) 17. Jamison Crowder, Wash. (vs. Panthers) 18. Stefon Diggs, Vikings (vs. Colts) 19. Emmanuel Sanders, Broncos (vs. Patriots) 20. Brandin Cooks, Saints (at Cardinals) 21. Jarvis Landry, Dolphins (at Jets) 22. Julian Edelman, Patriots (at Broncos) 23. Taylor Gabriel, Falcons (vs. 49ers) 24. Golden Tate, Lions (at Giants) 25. Steve Smith, Ravens (vs. Eagles) 26. DeAndre Hopkins, Texans (vs. Jaguars) 27. Tyrell Williams, Chargers (vs. Raiders) 28. DeSean Jackson, Wash. (vs. Panthers) 29. DeVante Parker*, Dolphins (at Jets) 30. Dontrelle Inman, Chargers (vs. Raiders) 31. Malcolm Mitchell, Patriots (at Broncos)

1. Justin Tucker, Ravens (vs. Eagles) 2. Matt Bryant, Falcons (vs. 49ers) 3. Mason Crosby, Packers (at Bears) 4. Dan Bailey, Cowboys (vs. Bucs) 5. Stephen Hauschka, Seahawks (vs. Rams) 6. Sebastian Janikowski, Raiders (at Chargers) 7. Cairo Santos, Chiefs (vs. Titans) 8. Dustin Hopkins, Washington (vs. Panthers) 9. Adam Vinatieri, Colts (at Vikings) 10. Stephen Gostkowski, Patriots (at Broncos) 11. Josh Lambo, Chargers (vs. Raiders) 12. Graham Gano, Panthers (at Washington) 13. Robbie Gould, Giants (vs. Lions) 14. Matt Prater, Lions (at Giants) 15. Kai Forbath, Vikings (vs. Colts)

DEFENSE/SPECIAL TEAMS

1. Seahawks (vs. Rams) 2. Bills (vs. Browns) 3. Ravens (vs. Eagles) 4. Vikings (vs. Colts) 5. Patriots (at Broncos) 6. Falcons (vs. 49ers) 7. Texans (vs. Jaguars) 8. Chiefs (vs. Titans) 9. Giants (vs. Lions) 10. Packers (at Bears) 11. Cardinals (vs. Saints) 12. Broncos (vs. Patriots) 13. Ravens (vs. Eagles) 14. Eagles (at Ravens) 15. Dolphins (at Jets) *Check injury status

PRO FOOTBALL WEEKLY | ProFootballWeekly.com | THURSDAY, DECEMBER 15, 2016

QUARTERBACKS

Rodgers owns Bears; everyone owns 49ers. Can Brees snap out of funk in AZ? 1. Aaron Rodgers, Packers (at Bears) 2. Matt Ryan, Falcons (vs. 49ers) 3. Derek Carr, Raiders (at Chargers) 4. Kirk Cousins, Washington (vs. Panthers) 5. Tom Brady, Patriots (at Broncos) 6. Philip Rivers, Chargers (vs. Raiders) 7. Drew Brees, Saints (at Cardinals) 8. Ben Roethlisberger, Steelers (at Bengals) 9. Jameis Winston, Bucs (at Cowboys) 10. Andrew Luck, Colts (at Vikings) 11. Dak Prescott, Cowboys (vs. Bucs) 12. Russell Wilson, Seahawks (vs. Rams) 13. Cam Newton, Panthers (at Washington) 14. Tyrod Taylor, Bills (vs. Browns) 15. Joe Flacco, Ravens (vs. Eagles) 16. Eli Manning, Giants (vs. Lions) 17. Matthew Stafford* Lions (at Giants) 18. Alex Smith, Chiefs (vs. Titans) 19. Marcus Mariota, Titans (at Chiefs) 20. Carson Palmer, Cardinals (vs. Saints)

PRO FOOTBALL WEEKLY | ProFootballWeekly.com | THURSDAY, DECEMBER 15, 2016

Which teams will make it to the postseason?

NATE ATKINS HUB ARKUSH Denver with the Colts at home in between. I’ll say both squads finish 2-1, giving KC the division and No. 2 seed because of its two head-to-head wins over Oakland, which becomes the first wild card team in and the No. 5 seed. The Steelers (8-5) are on a roll and a lock for the No. 3 seed. That leaves the woeful AFC South, where I’ll pick the Texans as the No. 4 seed given their superior division record.

Last team in? I give the edge to Miami over Denver because of the Broncos’ brutal remaining schedule. How’d I do, Hub? Arkush: You know, Dan, I thought this was going to be tricky but at least with the junior circuit maybe this isn’t as tough as I thought? We can lock the Patriots, Chiefs and Steel-

PATRICK FINLEY DAN McCALEB

ers in at one through three and the Raiders at five, so we’re in lockstep there. The Texans have a huge edge owning all the tiebreakers with a 4-0 division record. At No. 6, the Ryan Tannehill injury scares me, but with the Broncos and Ravens likely to lose at least seven, I’m thinking Matt Moore can get Miami two of three at the Jets and at the Bills before finishing at home against the Patriots.

Geez man, we’re not in lockstep in the NFC too, are we?

McCaleb: The NFC is definitely trickier. Dallas (11-2) is in firm control of clinching the No. 1 seed, and Detroit (9-4) has a two-game division lead, but a remaining schedule as tough as Denver’s (at Giants and Cowboys, home vs. Pack-

ers.) The Seahawks (8-4-1) have it much easier with remaining games against all three divisional foes, so they’ll be the No. 2 seed. Here’s where I’ll go out on a limb: The Packers (7-6) run the table, including a Week 17 win over the Lions, to win the division and claim the No. 4 seed. The Falcons (85) also run the table and edge Tampa (8-5) in the NFC South, clinching the third seed. That leaves the two wild card teams.

I’m going with the Giants at No. 5 and the Buccaneers at No. 6, which would mean the Lions blew a two-game divisional lead with three weeks to play and miss the playoffs entirely. We can’t possibly agree on all of this, can we?

Arkush: Uh oh, I’m trying to

figure out where I disagree?!

Dallas and Seattle will be one and two despite their flaws.

With the Niners, Panthers and Saints left, Atlanta looks like it will be 11-5, 10-6 worst case. The Bucs are more like 10-6 best case, 9-7 likely and 8-8 possible. I don’t doubt the Lions’ chops at this point, but I seriously doubt they can win both NFC East road games.

Even if they split, they’ll have to beat the Packers at home in the finale to win the North, assuming Green Bay gets by the Bears and Vikings. So I’m with you on the Packers at four and the Giants at five. But I’m going to guess the Lions surprise either New York or Dallas to hang on to the final wild card over Tampa and Washington.

One more question: I’m thinking the Patriots knock off Atlanta in Super Bowl LI in Houston if Julio gets healthy enough to get the birds there.

What say you?

McCaleb: I’ll be the contrarian here, Hub, and pick the Chiefs to beat the Cowboys in what at the start of the season would have been considered an unlikely Super Bowl matchup.

PRO FOOTBALL WEEKLY | ProFootballWeekly.com | THURSDAY, DECEMBER 15, 2016

P

ro Football Weekly’s Hub Arkush and Dan McCaleb try and predict the NFL’s postseason participants and seeding.

Arkush: OK, Dan, it’s time for both of us to crawl all the way out to the end of the limb and see if we can avoid falling off or worse, having it break off underneath us. There are 26 teams still mathematically alive for the playoffs and 22 clubs with a real fighter’s chance. I’m guessing we can both probably come up with at least eight or nine of the clubs that are going to make it, but what are the odds we can both name all 12 and identify the No. 1 through No. 6 seeds in each conference? How about you kicking us off with your AFC picks.

McCaleb: Sure, Hub, I’ll play. Let’s start with the obvious: The Patriots (11-2) are in and will be the AFC’s top seed, even though they’re banged up and both the Chiefs (10-3) and Raiders (10-3) are just a game back. Kansas City has home games against the Titans and Broncos and a trip to San Diego remaining, while Oakland is on the road against SD and

PRO FOOTBALL WEEKLY | ProFootballWeekly.com | THURSDAY, DECEMBER 15, 2016

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