A6 Friday, February 14, 2020
| ILLINOIS AGRINEWS | www.agrinews-pubs.com
REGIONAL WEATHER
Outlook for Feb. 14 - Feb. 20
Shown is Friday’s weather. Temperatures are Friday’s highs and Friday night’s lows.
Evanston 18/11 South Bend 18/9
Rockford 13/8 Rock Island 20/13
Chicago 17/12
Š2020; forecasts and graphics provided by
SUNRISE/SUNSET Rise 6:53 a.m. 6:52 a.m. 6:51 a.m. 6:49 a.m. 6:48 a.m. 6:47 a.m. 6:46 a.m.
Decatur 20/14
Quincy 24/20
Springfield Date Feb. 14 Feb. 15 Feb. 16 Feb. 17 Feb. 18 Feb. 19 Feb. 20
Peoria 18/14
Set 5:33 p.m. 5:34 p.m. 5:35 p.m. 5:36 p.m. 5:37 p.m. 5:39 p.m. 5:40 p.m.
Champaign 18/11 Lafayette 17/10
Muncie 20/12
New
Feb 15 Feb 23
Mt. Vernon 28/19
Vevay 27/16
Evansville 27/21
PRECIPITATION
First
Mar 2
Southern Illinois: Friday: sunny, but very cold. Winds east‑southeast, becoming southeast at 3‑6 mph. Expect a full day of sunshine with fair drying conditions and average relative humidity 60%.
Indianapolis 22/15 Terre Haute 23/17
Full
Mar 9
GROWING DEGREE DAYS Illinois Week ending Feb. 10 Month through Feb. 10 Season through Feb. 10 Normal month to date Normal season to date
0 0 3834 0 3333
Indiana Week ending Feb. 10 Month through Feb. 10 Season through Feb. 10 Normal month to date Normal season to date
0 0 3478 0 2898
Anna 30/20
Today Hi/Lo/W 18/11/s 17/12/s 20/14/s 27/22/s 18/11/s 14/6/s 28/19/s 18/14/s 24/20/s 13/8/s 20/13/s 21/16/s
Tom. Hi/Lo/W 40/32/pc 36/33/sn 40/32/pc 43/36/pc 37/34/sn 36/33/c 44/36/pc 38/32/sn 41/31/sn 36/31/sn 38/32/sn 40/33/pc
Sun. Hi/Lo/W 40/34/sn 38/27/pc 42/34/sn 50/33/sn 38/28/s 37/26/s 48/39/sn 41/31/sn 42/32/sn 38/24/pc 38/25/pc 42/33/sn
Indiana Bloomington Carmel Evansville Fishers Fort Wayne Gary Lafayette Indianapolis Muncie South Bend Terre Haute Vevay
Today Hi/Lo/W 26/17/s 17/10/s 27/21/s 18/10/s 16/6/pc 17/12/s 17/10/s 22/15/s 20/12/s 18/9/pc 23/17/s 27/16/s
Tom. Hi/Lo/W 43/36/pc 39/35/pc 46/38/pc 39/36/pc 36/31/pc 37/33/c 39/33/pc 42/35/pc 39/34/pc 36/31/c 43/36/pc 45/35/pc
Northern Indiana: Friday: frigid. Clouds and sun in the north and east; plenty of sunshine in the south and west. Winds west‑southwest at 4‑8 mph. Expect two to four hours of sunshine with fair drying conditions. Central Indiana: Friday: sunny, but frigid. Winds north‑northwest at 4‑8 mph. Expect a full day of sunshine with poor drying conditions and average relative humidity 95%.
For 24-hour weather updates, check out www.agrinews-pubs.com Illinois Champaign Chicago Decatur E. St. Louis Evanston Joliet Mt. Vernon Peoria Quincy Rockford Rock Island Springfield
Northern Illinois: Friday: frigid with brilliant sunshine. Winds east‑southeast at 4‑8 mph. Expect a full day of sunshine with fair drying conditions and average relative humidity 65%. Saturday: a chance for snow. Central Illinois: Friday: sunny and bitterly cold. Winds southeast at 6‑12 mph. Expect a full day of sunshine with fair drying conditions and average relative humidity 65%. Saturday: a chance for snow in the north and west.
Fort Wayne 16/6
MOON PHASES Last
TEMPERATURES
Gary 17/12
Springfield 21/16
East St. Louis 27/22
AGRICULTURE FORECASTS
Sun. Hi/Lo/W 46/39/sn 42/35/sn 49/41/r 42/34/sn 39/32/sn 38/29/s 42/33/sn 44/36/sn 42/35/sn 39/29/pc 45/37/sn 49/40/sn
Southern Indiana: Friday: plenty of sun‑ shine, but very cold. Winds east‑northeast at 4‑8 mph. Expect a full day of sunshine with fair drying conditions and average relative humidity 50%. Saturday: partly sunny.
SOUTH AMERICA A front will lead to showers and storms across Paraguay into southern Brazil Friday into the weekend. Another front will spread showers and storms from northern Argentina to Brazil early next week.
Weather (W): s–sunny, pc–partly cloudy, c–cloudy, sh–showers, t–thunderstorms, r–rain, sf–snow flurries, sn–snow, i–ice
Modest increase in cattle prices seen Unexpected events can cause strong market reaction By Martha Blum
AGRINEWS PUBLICATIONS
DUBUQUE, Iowa — Calf, feeder and fed cattle prices are predicted to be stable to a bit higher during 2020. “In general, we’re looking for somewhat higher prices of 2% to 4%,� said Derrell Peel, Breedlove professor of agribusiness at Oklahoma State University. “There is a lot of volatility in these markets relative to trade, macroe c onom ic c ond it ion s and politics,� Peel said during a presentation at the Driftless Region Beef Conference, hosted by University of Illinois Extension, Iowa State University Extension and Outreach and University of Wisconsin-Madison Division of Extension. Markets can be impacted by “black swans� — the unexpected, unknown things that are difficult to predict. “The coronavirus is looking like it is one of those events,� Peel said. “The markets tend to react very strongly to unknown things, and as we get more information, the markets settle back down.� Calf prices are close to where they were one year ago. “The second half of last year had a lot of challenges that we didn’t anticipate in the first half of the year, including feed market concerns and a packing plant fire in Kansas during August,� Peel said. “We are comparing prices to a lower base last year, so we think we’ll see modestly stronger prices particularly during that time period.� Most of the time, Nebraska is the epicenter for feeder cattle prices, Peel said. “Cattle prices tend to go down in all directors from Nebraska,� he said. “Iowa, Wyoming and Kansas have pretty similar levels to Nebraska, and the lowest prices are in Alabama and Georgia.� Fed cattle prices typically peak at the beginning of the first quarter and move to a seasonal low around Labor Day, Peel said. There were two big, pronounced spikes in boxed beef prices during 2019, he said. “The first spike was because of the packing plant fire,� he said. “It was very brief, and prices came back down after about two weeks.� Boxed beef prices typically increase from October into November as purchases of prime rib are made for holiday meals; however, prices were very
strong last year, Peel said. “That reflects a couple of things going on, including a lower than expected Choice grading percentage, so the Choice supply was relative Peel tight,� he said. “As we have grown the cowherd since 2014, we have added to the normal culling rate, so we added 1.3 million more cows to slaughter in 2019 compared to 2015.� That 25% increase in cull slaughter, Peel said, put pressure on the market. “I expect both seasonally and maybe because of meat markets, prices will begin to reflect that,� he said. “We normally expect cull cow markets to have a very strong season run-up from November through February and March.� So far this year, the culling numbers have been strong. “That’s part of what’s keeping the market under pressure and not exhibiting typical seasonal patterns, but I think they will kick in,� Peel said. Hay stocks from 2018 to 2019 increased nationwide 6.8%, and hay production was up 4.3% in 2019 compared to the previous year. “There’s a lot of quality issues because of the wet, cool weather during the first half of the year,� Peel said. “That really compromised the quality of the hay, so we’re encouraging
producers to test their hay.� The challenging weather in 2019 resulted in a smaller corn crop, and quality is also an issue, Peel said. “We’re anticipating a modest increase in average corn price, but not the kind that will cause major feedlot response unless a surprise comes along,� he said. “For the first time in three years, we have pulled ending stocks of corn below 2 billion bushels, but as long as corn ending stocks stay above 1.5 billion bushels, we won’t see a lot of market ration,� he said. “The biggest job of the market is to make sure we don’t run out of stuff, and they way we do that is when it looks like things are getting tight, the market starts raising prices to figure out who wants it the most.� The U.S. cowherd hit a bottom in 2014 and increased through 2019, Peel said. “The last time we did a cyclical expansion was from 1990 to 1996,� he said. “I don’t think we’re in the economic conditions to do a sustained liquidation, so I think it is not really a peak as much as a plateau for this year.� Steers on feed on Jan. 1 were up 1.3% in 2019 compared to 2018, Peel said. “Then they were down ever y quarter through
2019 until this January when they popped back up,� he said. “Heifers are still above year ago levels and have been since the second quarter of 2016, but I think we’re approaching a peak,� he said. “Feedlot inventory right now is at record level back to 1995, and we’re about at the peak so we’ll
start pulling that down.� Cattle slaughter was up 1.7% in 2019, and that will probably decrease this year, Peel said. “Carcass weights all of last year were below year earlier levels until the end of the year when they got well above year earlier levels,� he said. “Beef production will probably go up a
little bit even though cattle slaughter will be slightly lower because carcass weights will push the total production a little higher.� Martha Blum can be reached at 815-223-2558, ext. 117, or marthablum@ agrinews-pubs.com. Follow her on Twitter at: @AgNews_Blum.
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