BCR_North Central Illinois Ag Mag - Winter 2023

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Sustaining Our Future

Conservation work focus of IFB documentary

By Kay Shipman FARMWEEK

WALNUT, Ill. — Illinois

Farm Bureau’s first documentary, “Sustaining Our Future: A Farm Family Story,” shares farmers’ work to protect natural resources through the story of three generations of a Bureau County farm family.

An excerpt of the film debuted for Farm Bureau members attending the IFB Annual Meeting in Chicago.

The crux of the film is Walnut farmer Michael Ganschow and his conservation work to continue a legacy started by his grandfather, Dean Ganschow, and continued by his late father, James Ganschow.

The Ganschows share the challenges they face to be innovative and remain economically viable while protecting soil and improving water quality.

“Oftentimes, we have such a large set of the population with a gap between perception and reality. It’s important for us to open the doors to our tractors and let people see what the reality is,” Michael Ganschow said.

The younger Ganschow noted his grandfather saw a soil erosion problem and took a chance by trying something different on the land. It’s a tradition he continues.

“That’s the way our operation is and how our family thinks,” he said. “My dad was the facilitator. He was able to say, ‘Michael, you take it.’”

In the film, another conservation farmer, Colby Hunt, McDonough County Farm Bureau president, shares his family history of stewardship and explains why he recently installed a woodchip bioreactor to reduce nutrient runoff.

The film “shows how personally farmers take care of

the land. That it’s more than a job. It’s a legacy,” Hunt said.

In Knox County, the Farm Bureau Young Leaders Committee tackles a project to have cover crop demonstrations seeded in every township and succeeded in 18 of the 20.

Knox County Farm Bureau Executive Director Hailey Hennenfent discusses the importance of young farmers implementing new conservation practices on their family farms and how IFB’s Nutrient Stewardship Grant Program helps spark projects like those.

“Ever since I’ve been in Knox County, I’ve seen the members and the farmers trying steps to protect their land. This (project) was a chance for young farmers to take the next step,” Hennenfent said.

Lauren Lurkins, IFB director of environmental policy, describes IFB’s role in supporting farmers’ conservation endeavors while ensuring incentives provide support.

Lurkins also covers how IFB and farmers work with related national and state strategies, especially the statewide Nutrient Loss Reduction Strategy and its goal to reduce nitrogen and phosphorus levels in rivers, lakes and streams.

The 60-minute film includes scientific perspectives from two University of Illinois agricultural researchers who have collaborated with farmers for in-field research projects.

Andrew Margenot, assistant professor in crop sciences, and Kaiyu Guan, associate professor in ecohydrology and remote sensing, discuss their work with farmers and search to find applicable solutions through research.

The documentary is available for viewing on the IL Farm Bureau YouTube channel.

This story was distributed through a cooperative project between Illinois Farm Bureau and the Illinois Press Association.

One-on-one assistance key centerpiece of PCM program

By Tom C. Doran AGRINEWS PUBLICATIONS

BLOOMINGTON, Ill.

— Precision Conservation Management program participation continues to grow as farmers look toward implementing conservation practices.

PCM is a free service that combines precision technology and data management with farm business and financials to help farmers manage, adopt and adapt efficient conservation practices long-term to help improve their bottom line.

PCM is a program funded by the Illinois Corn Growers

Association and the Illinois Soybean Association and grants from the U.S. Department of Agriculture’s Natural Resources Conservation

Service, The Nature Conservancy, Pepsico, the National Fish and Wildlife Foundation, The Walton Family Foundation and the Environmental Defense Fund.

PCM was created as a result of a USDA Regional Conservation Partnership

Program grant.

Greg Goodwin, who grew up on a small family-owned farm in Crawford County, took the helm as PCM director earlier this year and gave an update on the program that was launched in 2015 to provide one-on-one assistance to farmers.

“This year, we expect to have roughly 50 to 100 new farmers who have joined the program, hopefully even a little more than that. We’ll know how many after the data collection is completed and we have final enrollment numbers,” he said.

“We’re excited to see the program continue to grow.

We have a number of new staff members that are over a year into the program and a couple new just getting on board.

“We continue to look to partner with farmers, encourage conservation management adoption and pair them with proper incentives and programs to help assist them throughout that process.”

Farmers can sign up for PCM at www.precisionconservation.org.

“From there, they can click the ‘contact us’ button. That will connect them with someone in their area that will partner with them one-

Goodwin

on-one,” Goodwin said.

“We are only in about 30 counties in Illinois right now. The initial regions were formed based on different watersheds related to the nutrient loss reduction goals of the state. We have grown outside of that a little bit and we are looking to expand to other regions of the state in the next five years.”

TECHNICAL SUPPORT

Once a farmer has expressed interest in signing up, a conservation specialist will be the point contact and provide one-on-one technical support and enroll the farmer in PCM’s Farmer Portal platform.

“We can enroll farmers at any point throughout the year. Our staff would work with them to collect their management records and then we pair that with average economic cost tables that have been developed through Illinois Farm Business Farm Management and University of Illinois Exten -

sion,” Goodwin said.

“Depending on what time of year it is, we have two major data collection periods, one in June and then post-harvest. So, the farmer can expect four to six hours a year to spend with our specialist.

“We do compensate you for your time. You get a $500 payment at enrollment and after 12 months in the program another $250 and you can participate indefinitely after that.”

INCENTIVE PROGRAMS

Among the benefits of the program is the PCM specialist connects farmers with incentive programs, including some that may not be commonly known.

“There are the sort of mainstay federal programs out there that farmers are generally aware of and we have specific pools of those funds set aside for farmers who are participating in our regions. There are also a number of programs coming online

that’ll probably start to roll out in 2023,” Goodwin said.

“For example, the new Partnerships for Climate-Smart Commodities program include about 70 national-scale pilot programs that are funding at various levels from about $20 million to up to $100 million with match that are all looking to enroll farmers and have various incentive programs out there.

“That is what we see our role to be in terms of farmer services, helping them navigate that space and understand what opportunities are out there. Some of these are even available just at the county level.

“We try to do a very good job of understanding what’s out there for farmers in each of our regions and be able to act as a resource to help them navigate that space.”

ANALYSIS

Farmers who participate in PCM will receive a customized Resource Analysis and Assessment Plan each year

that provides direction to the farmer in evaluating and considering changes to production practices. Currently, PCM’s assessment focuses on tillage, cover crops and nutrient management.

“In February or March of every year, we meet with every cooperating farmer and deliver these RAAPs one-onone through our conservation specialist. We have partnered with Field to Market which through their Fieldprint Calculator has a set of sustainability metrics,” Goodwin said.

“For your customized report, you will see how any of the fields you have enrolled compare to yourself through time and also anonymously to any other farmers who are participating in an aggregated fashion in your region and also at the state level.”

Tom C. Doran can be reached at 815-410-2256 or tdoran@shawmedia.com. Follow him on Twitter at: @AgNews_Doran.

High diesel prices adding to farmer anxiety

By Jeannine Otto AGRINEWS PUBLICATIONS

CHICAGO — Along with the price and supply of ammonia, the price and supply of diesel fuel is one of the factors that is adding to farmer anxiety.

And the one thing that could ease that anxiety isn’t likely to happen anytime soon, according to one ag industry analyst.

“Who wants to have a refinery in their town? Put up your hand. No one?” Dan Basse, an ag industry economist and president of AgResource Inc., asked an audience of seed industry executives and staff at the recent American Seed Trade Association’s Corn, Sorghum, Soybean and Seed Industry Expo.

Basse outlined two of the major factors that are causing anxiety for U.S. farmers, despite consecutive years of record profits in the U.S. ag industry.

“The price of ammonia has shot up. It’s starting to shoot up again. The only good news on the ammonia front is if we look out, the amount of ammonia used to produce a bushel of corn, it’s coming down,” he said.

“So, every farmer is farming better, relative to ammonia, where it sits today. But again, this is a very high cost, which is unlikely to drop significantly as we look at the year ahead.”

Then he turned to the other farm necessity — fuel.

“And then, you talk about diesel,” he said.

There is a bit of good news on the price front.

“I’m here to tell you that the price of diesel, as we see it

today, will come down modestly. But any big, big break in the diesel market means we need to have one thing,” Basse said.

That one thing is the thing that nobody wants in their town — a new petroleum refinery.

“The U.S. has not built a new crude oil refinery in 48 years. And so, if we need more diesel, we only can get it from one other source, which is heating oil. We either crack for heating oil or we can crack for diesel,” Basse said.

The early record cold spells that swept across the United States in late 2022 meant that refinery operations turned to heating oil production and away from diesel production, leading to shortages and higher prices.

“When you look at where diesel fuel stocks are today, you can see they’re sitting at multi-year lows. It’ll take a long time to rebuild those diesel supplies,” Basse said.

“At the end of the day, this diesel shortage is going to be with us until we can get more refinery capacity.”

Even if a new refinery were

to be announced, the diesel market would not see any immediate impact, he said.

“To build a new refinery would start somewhere in the vicinity of $40 billion to $60 billion and take over five years. So, it’s well down the road,” he said.

“It’s not going to be happening any day soon. This means that we’re going to have to import more product from abroad.”

Basse added later, in talking about the expansion of sustainable aviation fuel, that further investment by the petroleum industry in new drilling or refining capacity may be a long time coming — and may not happen at all.

“The investment in the oil patch is not where it needs to be. I need more capital investment in U.S. petroleum production, but it’s not happening,” he said.

“Who wants to invest in petroleum or the old fossil fuel industry when the administration is against it?”

While the focus and push toward electrification by environmentalists and by the

Biden administration continues, the European Union has eased off on the accelerator to electrification and is moving in a different direction.

“We cannot meet the U.S. energy needs as it sits today. This is why countries like the EU have gotten away from thinking about green fuels. They want to move right over to hydrogen. They think hydrogen will be the next opportunity,” Basse said.

“We in the United States are still holding onto electrification and not seeing enough investment in the oil patch.”

He emphasized that the lack of investment in the U.S. petroleum industry offers the opportunity for further and continuing energy price increases.

“We believe that to get to where we need to be in energy, the investment in the United States oil patch needs to be close to $290 billion by 2028, which is just not happening today,” he said.

Jeannine Otto can be reached at 815-410-2258, or jotto@ shawmedia.com. Follow her on Twitter at: @AgNews_Otto.

Basse

Rural health care in ‘precarious situation’

By Tammie Sloup FARMWEEK

WASHINGTON — Rural communities are older, sicker and poorer.

“It’s a terrible marketing line … but a great elevator speech when trying to communicate the uniqueness of rural communities,” said Alan Morgan, CEO of the National Rural Health Association.

Morgan, who has more than 31 years of experience in health policy, spoke during an Arizona Telemedicine Program webinar in November about the state of rural health.

How are rural hospitals faring as they emerge from the height of the pandemic? That’s a difficult question to answer, Morgan said.

“We’re in a precarious situation where we’re seeing almost half of the nation’s rural hospitals currently operating at a negative margin,” he said.

“We’re seeing tremendous

Rural health care is in a “precarious situation,” experts say

Medicare and Medicaid cuts happening across the nation. And this is happening at a time where we’re seeing an amazing staffing crisis. … It’s just a tremendously difficult time for rural providers.”

Federal funding helped prop up operations during the COVID-19 public health emergency, but much of that assistance was temporary.

Since 2005, 180 rural hospitals have closed across the

United States, and a report released recently by the Center for Healthcare Quality and Payment Reform estimates more than 600 rural hospitals — almost 30% of all rural hospitals in the country — are

NEBRASKA FARM BUREAU PHOTO/AMANDA KAISER

at risk of closing in the near future.

The report states 13 rural hospitals are at risk of closing in Illinois, but did not name them.

Looking ahead, the immediate challenge within the halls of rural hospitals is a workforce shortage and in rural communities a lack of rural behavioral health services.

“There’s a bipartisan understanding that we have to see some movement in behavioral health and behavioral health legislation,” Morgan said.

“I expect that as we move out of the public health emergency there is an understanding among both sides of the aisle that a lot of the flexibilities that the healthcare system has seen, most notably rural providers, has to continue.”

Health advocates hope Congress approves funding for the proposed Save America’s Rural Hospitals Act.

The legislation would eliminate Medicare sequestration for rural hospitals, make Medicare telehealth service enhancements permanent for

Federally Qualified Health Centers and Rural Health Clinics and extend increased Medicare payments for rural ground ambulance services.

With the nationwide healthcare workforce shortage, particularly in rural areas, Morgan points to rural residency training programs as a path to encouraging more students to practice in non-urban communities.

“They go to rural and they stay in rural; we need to have more of that going ahead,” he said.

Several medical school and grant programs in Illinois already incorporate that mission.

Morgan also said telehealth usage is “not flourishing” in rural communities, largely due to lack of broadband.

“There is no path forward for rural health without telehealth,” he said.

The current rural healthcare environment is not sustainable, Morgan said, adding “we need new reimbursement models and new provider-type models.”

Recently, federal officials finalized rules for the first new provider type in 20 years — a Rural Emergency Hospital designation.

These facilities must provide 24/7 emergency medical services and observation care and have the option to provide additional outpatient medical services. However, these facilities would not provide inpatient care.

The designation went into effect Jan. 1, with facilities likely beginning to come online within the next five years, Morgan said.

He estimates between 60 and 100 communities across the United States will conduct feasibility studies in the coming year.

The model isn’t for every rural community.

“This is a model for a community that maybe has lost a rural hospital recently or just has such a low volume of inpatient beds and really is seeing all of their volume in outpatient and emergency room services,” Morgan said. “This is a new tool that we

have to move forward to ensure that we have that access to care.”

States also must pass laws that establish state-level requirements and regulations to license this provider type. To date, only Kansas, Nebraska and South Dakota have passed such laws.

While rural residents face health care challenges, the environment also has resulted in collaboration and new ideas amongst rural providers.

“Those challenges drive innovation,” Morgan said. “And as a result of that … hundreds of small towns all across the U.S. are really serving as innovation hubs for the redesign of our healthcare system.

“Some of the most innovative and creative approaches to delivering high quality healthcare services can be seen in small towns all across the U.S.”

This story was distributed through a cooperative project between Illinois Farm Bureau and the Illinois Press Association.

2023 market outlook An early look at new crop balance sheets

By Tom C. Doran AGRINEWS PUBLICATIONS

CHAMPAIGN, Ill. — Penciling in the possibilities for the 2023-2024 corn and soybean marketing year found an uptick in supplies and slight downturn in prices.

Scott Irwin, University of Illinois ag economist, gave farmdoc’s preliminary look at the next marketing year’s crop balance sheets during the recent Farm Assets Conference.

The first obvious question is where planted acres with the corn-to-soybean price ratio slightly favor corn.

“You might think that total crop acreage is a relatively fixed number — and, in some sense, it is — but there is important variation over time, and I think there is some relationship to prices,” Irwin said.

The total crop base has declined from 330 million acres in the late 1990s to a low of 320 million in 2006.

The ethanol-led boom in corn prices led to an increase in planted in 2013 and 2014 that brought total crop acres up to 330 million.

“With the drop-off in prices after 2014 we basically shrunk back to about 320 million acres. That’s not such a large change off of such a big acre base, but it is an important variable as we look forward,” Irwin said.

“I mistakenly thought that in 2022 we’d see a little bit more of an uptick in total crop acres than we did, given the high profitability. I’m going to go out on a limb and think I was just a year early. We’ll probably see a tick up of another few million acres in total crop acreage in 2023.

“That’s a little bit on the speculative side because of the severe drought in the Great Plains states in Oklahoma,

Grain price trends on an atypical path

Kansas, Nebraska, and somewhat into the Dakotas. That’s where we would expect maybe 2 or 3 million more acres to creep back into production, but there is some caution about that given the severity of the drought.

“It’s something to keep an eye on. I still think that’s my biased of the direction that we’ll see in next year’s acreage reports in March, June and August slightly bigger overall acreage. That’s important because that sets the stage for what our corn and soybean acres can look like.”

CORN

The farmdoc 2023-2024 marketing year balance sheet includes a projection of 92 million planted acres of corn, compared to 88.6 million in 2022, and 88 million planted soybean acres, one-half million higher than 2022.

The U.S. Department of Agriculture’s baseline released in October also had 92 million planted acres for corn in 20232024 and projected 87 million soybean acres planted.

“That would be a return to what I would call our norm now of 180 to 181 million acres total of corn and soybeans, not taking into account prevented plant,” Irwin said.

For yields, USDA’s baseline is a 181.5 bushels per acre for the 2023 growing season.

“USDA has been fairly aggressive on their trend yield estimation for a number of years. We’re not quite that optimistic and we think 180

By Tom C. Doran AGRINEWS PUBLICATIONS

CHAMPAIGN, Ill. — The current crop marketing year price trends have been unusual compared to past trends.

“We’ve been through this old crop/new crop inverse for the entire year with 2022 old crop prices remaining above 2023 new crop prices since Jan. 1, 2022,” said Joe Janzen, University of Illinois ag economist.

The typical train of thought is prices go down in the long run through the marketing year. However, a number of events kept prices strong.

“The first one for soybeans was in February when got news of a poorer crop in Brazil due to the drought. That really had a big impact, especially on old crop soybean prices,” increasing from the $13 area to around $14.75 per bushel, Janzen said.

“It had a little bit less impact in the corn market, but corn got a big boost from the Ukraine-Russia war, starting at the point of the invasion and sharply rallied the next two months in both corn new crop and old crops prices. That put us in that neighborhood of plus$7 corn prices and plus-$15 soybean prices.

“Then we get some news of sort of an easing of the supply chain problem coming out of the Black Sea region with this grain deal between Ukraine and Russia and number of other things that led to lower prices in the summer.”

Corn then got a boost with the U.S. Department of Agriculture estimating lower than expected domestic

yields. That put some strength especially in old crop corn and new crop followed. There was a leveling off in the fall to around $6.50 old crop corn and around $6 new crop corn.

BALANCE SHEETS

Janzen reviewed the corn and soybean supply and demand ledgers for 2022-2023 and the current marketing year outlook.

He said U of I’s farmdoc forecasts a 2022-2023 total supply of 15.357 billion bushels with an average yield of 172.3 bushels per acre.

That yield is significantly below where USDA started in early 2022 with a trend line expectation of around 180 bushels an acre national average.

“I think there is a significant amount of uncertainty on the use side for corn,” Janzen said.

USDA estimates 5.275 billion bushels for ethanol while farmdoc projects 5.2 billion bushels. USDA has exports at 2.15 billion bushels and farmdoc estimates 2.075 billion.

Corn ending stocks are at 1.182 billion bushels on USDA’s balance sheet and 1.332 billion in the farmdoc estimate, resulting in stocksto-use of 8.3% and 9.5%, respectively.

“Ending stocks might not be quite as tight as USDA is projecting, but 9.5% stocks-to-use is still his -

Irwin Janzen

bushels an acre is fine. With beginning supplies of 1.332 billion bushels, 92 planted acres and an average yield of 180, total supply is estimated at nearly 16.5 billion bushels for the 2023-2024 marketing year,” Irwin said.

On the use side, farmdoc estimates feed and residual 100 million bushels below USDA’s baseline to 5.6 billion.

Ethanol at 5.325 billion bushels and food, seed and residual at 6.775 billion match USDA’s projection. The farmdoc estimate for exports of 2.25 billion bushels is slightly below USDA.

“Exports are a wildcard right now. Much will depend on what happens to corn coming out of Ukraine,” Irwin said.

The farmdoc’s estimate of new crop ending stocks are 1.871 billion bushels compared

to 1.722 billion by USDA, putting stocks-to-use at 12.8%, 4.5% above the current marketing year’s projection.

The projected result puts the 2023-2024 season average farm price by farmdoc at $5.40 per bushel and USDA’s at $5.70. The 2022-2023 estimated average price is $6.80.

“If there’s a number we’re most uncomfortable with in these projections, it’s the price forecast. That is a very high price level for a stocksto-use ratio that’s clearly going to significantly exceed 10%. At roughly 9% or 10% you tend to get premium pricing in the corn market, and you don’t have to go much above that, and you no longer have premium pricing,” Irwin said.

“So, there are some real concerns about $5.40 even though clearly bids are at that level or above, but it indicates to us some concerns about downside risk levels on the corn balance sheet.

“This is only a good-

weather scenario. I’m 100% sure that in a good-weather year there’s 185-bushel U.S. average corn crop sitting out there, and I don’t think it would take really great weather to even get there. That would add another 400 million bushels onto your ending stocks without any increase on consumption.

“Now you would have more consumption with lower prices, but in a good weather year you’re looking at stocks that would go well north of 2 billion bushels. If that makes it sound like I have a bearish bias in market outlook, you’re hearing right.”

SOYBEANS

The 2023-2024 farmdoc soybean balance sheet has 88 million acres planted and an average yield of 51.5 bushels an acre, compared to USDA’s baseline of 52.

Beginning stocks of 220 million bushels and production of nearly 4.49 billion bushels puts total supplies to 4.724

billion bushels in estimates by farmdoc.

On usage, the farmdoc estimates match USDA’s with 2.295 billion bushels, exports of 2.05 billion, and seed and residual at 100 million and 23 million bushels, respectively.

The sum is 256 million bushels of soybean ending stocks and a 5.7% stocks-to-use ratio by farmdoc, and year-end stocks of 247 million bushels and a 5.5% ratio in USDA’s projection. Both estimates result in a season-average price of $13 a bushel for 2023-2024.

“Of course, you have to take into account the increase in acreage and potentially big crops coming out of South America before we get too excited, but at least the U.S. balance sheet looks like it’s reasonably tight going forward to next year,” Irwin said.

Tom C. Doran can be reached at 815-410-2256 or tdoran@shawmedia.com. Follow him on Twitter at: @ AgNews_Doran.

PRICE

FROM PAGE 12

torically tight, in the range where prices are high, but I think there is some reason to think old crop prices might not maintain the levels that USDA is projecting. There’s room for some downside,” Janzen said.

He added old crop corn prices levels are likely to remain high in the short run. However, higher ending stocks mean higher beginning stocks for 2023-2024 and an increased probability that the 2023 harvest will push prices lower.

“The reason for some of this pessimism is corn export sales are well below the fiveyear average pace and below last year,” Janzen said.

Corn export sales through Nov. 17, 2022, were about 699 million bushels while the previous five-year aver -

age level is approximately 1.047 billion bushels. Sales near this previous five-year average level are necessary to reach the USDA forecast level.

“There is some recent optimism for corn exports given recent large sales to Mexico and improved prospects for barge traffic on the Mississippi River to facilitate grain movement to export terminals, but missing early export sales may be too large to be completely replaced with sales later in the marketing year,” Janzen said.

SOYBEANS

The farmdoc projections concurred with USDA’s 2022-2023 balance sheet that has an average yield of 50.2 bushels per acre and a total supply of 4.634 billion bushels.

Exports are penned in a 2.045 billion bushels, crushings of 2.245 billion and ending stocks of 220 million

bushels, putting stock-to-use at 5%. The season average price is projected at $14 per bushel.

“Soybeans are slightly below trend line projected yields for 2022. It was a slightly smaller crop than we might have planned for. That’s kind of underpinning the market,” Janzen said.

“There is pretty strong use. The crush number is up from the year before. Exports are right around where they have been the last few years. We have a tight market situation where we’re carrying out 5% of use. That means relatively strong prices.”

Soybean export sales to Nov. 17 were similar to last year, above the previous five-year average pace and on track to meet USDA projections.

WILDCARD

The wildcard in the current marketing year outlook is basis levels and what’s hap-

pening on the transportation side.

“We do have kind of a strange situation that has eased somewhat. In late-October there were very poor basis levels along the Mississippi River and now they’re strengthening to some degree,” Janzen said.

“In the corn market, the large drought area of the Plains is trying to draw corn into feedlots in Oklahoma, Kansas and Nebraska. It was a region where there wasn’t much of a corn crop. The market needs to move corn in that direction. Basis is doing that work by implementing some incredibly strong bids there.

“It’s an unusual spatial market structure that we see ourselves in.”

Tom C. Doran can be reached at 815-410-2256 or tdoran@shawmedia.com. Follow him on Twitter at: @ AgNews_Doran.

Overlooking nothing. Ready for everything.

Farmers and ranchers, the world relies on you. And you deserve a bank that’s rooted in the details and dedicated to helping you do more.

Building trust in family farmers

By Richard Guebert Jr.

As we head into the new year, I am excited for efforts to make 2023 the “Year of the Farmer.”

Illinois Farm Families, a coalition composed of Illinois Farm Bureau and the Illinois beef, corn, pork, soybean and Midwest dairy associations, is also launching a major campaign to build trust in family farmers.

One major message we want to amplify is that 96% of Illinois farms are family-owned. In the coming months, our members will start to see such messages shared with a broader audience, including Super Bowl commercials and other activities throughout the year.

I recognize that there is much work to be done. Our farmers and leaders are building support from both sides of the political aisle amid a tumultuous political landscape.

Farmers are working tirelessly to assure American families that agriculture is stronger than ever.

Being bipartisan has served Farm Bureau well. ACTIVATOR, IFB’s political action committee, helps us elect candidates who work for our best interests in Washington and Springfield.

It also helps us build strong relationships with legislators, who in turn help us achieve our legislative priorities.

We endorse local candidates regardless of political party, and 93% of ACTIVATOR-endorsed candidates have been elected over the past four-year election cycle.

In the coming months, Congress will begin drafting the 2023 farm bill, which will guide U.S. agriculture and food policy over the next five years.

For decades, agriculture policy has remained one of the few areas of true bipartisanship in Springfield and Washington, D.C.

It is critical that we as farmers continue to develop strong relationships with our state and federal elected officials as they lay the groundwork for the next farm bill, advocate for international trade agreements and promote biofuels in our energy policy.

In December, IFB launched its first documentary, “Sustaining Our Future: A Farm Family Story.”

The documentary utilizes an empathetic and creative storytelling approach to share the story of a multi-generational farming family at the forefront of Illinois Nutrient Loss Reduction efforts.

It also includes the IFB environmental team and agriculture researchers from the University of Illinois. The documentary can be viewed on the IL Farm Bureau YouTube page.

As we look ahead in the new year to continue sharing our messages, whether it be farm bill priorities, bipartisanship or environmental efforts, we cannot ignore the changing demographics among our members.

There are more IFB members who are older than 90 years old than younger than 35. Additionally, the number of American farms is expected to decline by 42% by 2040.

It is hard to believe that it has been nine years since I was first elected as IFB president. It has been an incredible honor to serve Illinois farmers and our members.

I am proud of our work this past year, but our job is not done yet. We have a lot more to accomplish in the coming months.

Richard Guebert Jr. is the president of Illinois Farm Bureau. His family farm in Randolph County grows corn, soybeans and wheat.

Guebert

Ag industry producing more with fewer workers

By Timothy Eggert FARMWEEK

WASHINGTON — Agriculture remains a top employer in rural parts of the United States, but who worked in the industry has changed during the past three years, according to new data released by the U.S. Department of Agriculture’s Economic Research Service.

In its annual report, Rural America at a Glance, ERS found overall population growth in rural or “nonmetro” areas “took a dramatic upswing” between July 2020 and July 2021 when it increased 0.3% to 46.1 million total residents.

It marked the first time since the mid-1990s that non-metro areas grew at a faster rate than metro areas and was largely because of the coronavirus pandemic, according to the report.

Specifically, as COVID19 infection rates increased, more people moved into less densely populated areas at a faster rate than those who were leaving them.

But despite those positive shifts, rural America is becoming older, with people 65 years and older making up more than 20% of the nonmetro population in 2021 — the first time in history.

The size of the working-age population also declined in 2021, with 58% of rural residents aged 18 to 54.

“Declines in the working-age population may make it harder to meet labor demands in some rural industries and local labor markets,” the report’s authors noted.

“At the same time, many rural areas lack sufficient healthcare capacity, broadband service, community centers and other services to address the challenges associated with an aging population.”

While data for 2021 wasn’t available, the report found that as of 2019, the strongest rural job gains came in the

real estate, administrative services, education, professional services, health care and social assistance, and finance and insurance industries.

And in 2019, the four industries in rural America with the highest employment were government, manufacturing, retail, and health care and social assistance.

Those industries dovetail with the next highest employed industry — agriculture — as “families on small- to mid-sized farms often depend on nonagricultural jobs in their local economies as off-farm sources of income,” the report noted.

Here are three other ways the report found the rural ag industry has changed:

TOP RURAL INDUSTRY

Agriculture remains a primary source of employment for rural America, as 7% of all non-metro jobs in 2019 were related to the industry, compared to 1.1% of all

metro jobs.

The report said that disparity in employment can largely be attributed to comparative advantages, like the availability of resources and land costs.

RURAL AG BECOMING MORE DIVERSE

The rural ag industry continues to feature more white workers than workers of color, but the share of minorities employed in the field has improved, the report found.

As of 2019, Hispanic workers performed 14.4% of rural jobs in agriculture, while 2.4% of the ru-ral ag workers were Black. American Indian and Asian workers each made up less than 2% of rural ag jobs.

JOBS DOWN, PRODUCTIVITY UP

While ag still accounts for a higher share of rural jobs compared to other industries, the total number of jobs in agriculture has gone down, according to the report.

Specifically, the total number of rural ag jobs in 2020 was about 89% of the total number that were available in 2001. That long-term decline in industry jobs, however, has aligned with a long-term rise in agricultural productivity.

Since 2012, the labor productivity, or output per worker, and the total output, or gross domestic product, of the ag industry have both increased by at least 50%. And both measures have nearly doubled since their 2001 levels.

“Due to advances in technology and capital deepening, the rural agricultural industry has thrived,” ERS economist and report co-author James Davis said during a webinar about the report. “This industry produces a lot more with the same or fewer workers.”

This story was distributed through a cooperative project between Illinois Farm Bureau and the Illinois Press Association.

DAILY HERALD PHOTO/JOHN STARKS

Agriculture remains a top employer in rural parts of the United States, but who worked in the industry has changed during the past three years, according to new data released by the U S Department of Agriculture’s Economic Research Service

McConville

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Oglesby,

A fresh start in new year

By Monica Nyman

The new year is the perfect time to make improvements in your overall health and wellness. A few simple changes can make a major impact on health.

Make a commitment to shape up eating habits by making more healthful food choices, including consuming three daily servings of dairy.

Milk, cheese and yogurt together provide a powerful nutrient package of calcium, vitamin D and seven other essential nutrients that help build stronger bones and healthy bodies.

Pledge to make 2023 the best year yet, with these tips:

• Balance what you eat by including foods from all the food groups every day — dairy, protein, vegetable, fruit and grain. A colorful meal is a healthy meal. Aim for at least five fruits and vegetables per day.

• Fuel up with breakfast daily. Make a delicious fruit and yogurt smoothie or creamy oatmeal made with low-fat milk. Not a lot of time in the morning? Prep overnight oats or cheesy breakfast sandwiches to reheat so that you are not skipping out on this important meal.

• Snacks can add key nutrients to your diet and sustain your energy levels between meals. Try yogurt with fruit, whole grain crackers with low-fat cheese or a small handful of nuts.

• Size up your portions.

Use measuring cups to help learn the right serving sizes. Use smaller plates, bowls and glasses to help keep portions in control.

• Enjoy family mealtime and make it a priority. Research shows that family meals promote healthier eating as well as positive relationships.

• Get active by making exercise a part or your daily routine. Physical activity helps your body control stress and weight. Adults should aim for 30 minutes of daily activity; children and teens should get 60 minutes each day. Try short workouts throughout the day, an online membership or the buddy system to get you motivated.

• Choose healthy foods when eating out. Grilled, baked, broiled or steamed options are the best for lower calories. Pick healthy sides including salads, vegetables, fruits and dairy. Be mindful of portion sizes at restaurants.

• Plan meals ahead of time. Review the calendar to see what nights allow more free time to cook. This helps prevent drivethru dining or last-minute meal decisions. Grocery shop once per week so that all ingredients are ready to go. Batch cook larger portions of meals.

Creamy Banana Walnut Oatmeal

This quick-fix recipe can help jumpstart your day with great taste and nutrition.

INGREDIENTS

1 cup milk

2 packets instant oatmeal

1/2 ripe banana, mashed

1/2 Tbsp chopped walnuts

Freeze for later or have a night of leftovers to save time in the kitchen.

• Do not skip the milk. Milk is the No. 1 source or calcium, vitamin D and potassium in the diet. Make sure you get three serving of dairy daily.

• Watch empty calories. Sugar-filled drinks and desserts offer calories, but no nutrition. Eat to fuel

PROCEDURE

In a small bowl, combine milk and oatmeal packets Microwave on high for 1 to 2 minutes until steaming hot, but not boiling Stir until creamy Stir in mashed banana Garnish with walnuts and serve

your body with the important nutrients needed each day to keep you going.

Monica Nyman is a senior educator and registered dietitian with St Louis District Dairy Council. For more information on the health benefits of dairy, visit www. stldairycouncil.org.

Nyman

Report bullish for cattle prices

The U.S. Department of Agriculture recently released the December Cattle on Feed report that traders and ranchers anticipated to be bullish.

Though the data was less price-positive than hoped, it did show that for the past three months in a row, lower feedlot placements have set the stage for a much tighter supply of slaughter-ready cattle in the final months of the new year. I was more than pleased with the report as it fit my lean.

Most in the cattle industry are forecasting higher prices in 2023. But an upside spike with cattle prices may come sooner than later if the droughtlike weather conditions of the past year are reversed and the weather returns to normal.

If the weather does not return to normal, it may be 2024 before the cattle market turns poker-hot bullish. But the USDA believes fewer cattle numbers will be a market-moving force into 2025. Keep in mind, however, that mar-

kets and prices do not move in a straight line. Markets go up and they go down. They rally and fall.

This new Cattle on Feed report, for instance, painted a bullish picture for prices in the final months of 2023.

But the data in the report was a tad disappointing and over the coming weeks cattle prices may retreat. Any pullback with the cattle futures market should be confined to a $3 to $5 break at the most.

There is, however, a dark cloud over the commodity markets and it involves China. An old saying that came to be about 25 years ago states that “as China goes, so go commodities.”

And here are a few facts about China in today’s marketplace. In 2022, the United States exported the most beef to Japan, followed by South Korea and then China.

In a recent issue of Beef Magazine, it was predicted that China will be the largest buyer of U.S. beef within five years.

Here is the rub with China, keeping in mind markets and prices do not move in a straight line.

From the South China Morning Post: “Since Beijing’s sudden U-turn on ending the zero-COVID policy more than two weeks ago, Chinese

officials and state media have struggled to put a positive spin on the decision.”

From Bloomberg: “China estimates COVID surge is infecting 37 million people a day.”

And from Reuters News: “About 248 million people, which is nearly 18% of the population, are likely to have contracted the virus in the first 20 days of December, the report said, citing minutes from an internal meeting of China’s National Health Commission.”

Not only does cattle market and all other commodity markets have to be concerned about the COVID mess unfolding in China, but worries will persist for some time about the Federal Reserve and the other central banks of the world lifting interest rates at the fastest pace in 40 years.

The Fed has already pledged to keep interest rates at lofty levels in 2023 to fight inflation now pegged at 7.1% in hopes to get it back to 2%. Right now, U.S. interest rates are the highest since 2008.

History shows, based on a Bank of America study, that once an industrialized nation experiences inflation rising from 2% to north of 5%, it takes at least 10 years to get it back under 2%.

Jerry Welch Commodity Insight

The Fed has a challenge ahead by any measure. History also shows there will be pain to reduce inflation back under 2%.

Another bump in the road for higher cattle prices in the period ahead was the USDA Pig Crop report released a few days ago.

Most — including yours truly — were expecting a bullish report highlighted by a smaller breeding herd. Instead, the very opposite was seen.

For the first time in two and a half years, the national swine breeding herd experienced a year-overyear increase.

The data showed a rise of 0.5% when most were guessing a decline of 1% with the breeding herd. The difference between expectations and reality is clearly bearish.

But in the same report the data also showed the total U.S. hog herd to be the smallest since 2017.

The Pig Crop report had bullish and bearish data, pleasing some and disappointing others.

Moving forward, I am uncomfortable with the long side of most markets for the first quarter of 2023.

With elevated interest rates on tap for the entire new year and slower economic growth predicted here in the United States and across the globe, it is not the type of environment to spawn bull markets.

And as I mentioned above a wild card for stocks and commodities is the COVID mess unfolding rapidly in China.

I am uncomfortable being a bull until the first quarter of the new year has passed. I am being patient — and you should do the same.

Illinois’ longest operating lumberyard continues to thrive along Peru’s historic riverfront. Maze Lumber has been providing top quality building materials to Illinois Valley contractors and homeowners for 175 years, still owned by the founding fathers (Maze). Located in a 15,000-square foot showroom and office, we offer building materials for the modern home as well as a full line of the traditional lumber items used in home building, commercial construction, and industrial applications. Our experienced sales staff takes pride in their ability to provide knowledgeable assistance along with prompt delivery at reasonable prices.