De-escalatory diplomacy: Can Trump administration avert an India-Pak war?

Business Standard De-escalatory diplomacy: Can Trump administration avert an India-Pak war?

The potential escalatory implications are severe - both India and Pakistan have nuclear weapons, and Pakistani doctrine reportedly emphasises using them early in a war with India

Current Affairs: So far, Donald Trump has had remarkably good luck: His administration has avoided a major international crisis not of its own creation. That luck has run out, however, with a deadly dispute between India and Pakistan. In previous showdowns on the subcontinent, the US played a critical role in preventing tensions between nuclear-armed rivals from getting out of control. We are about to find out whether an erratic, hollowed-out Trump administration is capable of a similar performance.

India-Pakistan tensions over the disputed area of Kashmir have persisted since the birth of the two nations in 1948. The current crisis broke when Pakistani militants carried out the suicide bombing of an Indian security convoy, killing more than 40 Indian troops. After more than a week of threats and counter-threats, Indian planes have bombed suspected militant camps on the Pakistani side of the so-called Line of Control — the first time Indian forces had carried out strikes on the Pakistani side in decades.

Although the amount of damage caused is unclear, the bombings raised concerns that Pakistan will feel compelled to respond militarily. The potential escalatory implications are severe — both countries have nuclear weapons, and Pakistani doctrine reportedly emphasizes using them early in a war with India due to its conventional military disadvantages.

Given the grave dangers of an India-Pakistan war — as well as recent Pakistani threats that it might respond to an Indian assault by derailing the peace talks in Afghanistan — the US has a clear interest in calming things down. In prior confrontations, in fact, American diplomacy has been vital to walking India and Pakistan back from the brink.

During the Kargil War — a limited but fierce military conflict high in the mountains over Kashmir in 1999 — President Bill Clinton used personal diplomacy to convince Pakistani leaders to pull their fighters back from confrontation with Indian troops...Read More