Bidenomics- Sanity in Post-Covid World, But Expect No Instant Big Changes

Business Standard Bidenomics: Sanity in postCovid world, but expect no instant big changes

India, with its market potential, and as a complement to the US economy stands to gain if it plays its cards right.

Personal vs institutional, bilateral “favouritism” vs multilateralism, mood vs process, bluster vs restraint, mercurial vs considered... Donald Trump’s international economic policy was a populist mix of harking back to “splendid isolation”, muscular 'my way or the highway' approach, and his 'art of the deal'. At its heart, though, it had a domestic focus. It was left to the bureaucracy to keep trade discussions going — distinct from Trump’s tweets.

As Joe Biden shapes to his trade policy, he faces a vastly changed world from what he left in 2016: * Covid: “Rebuilding” the US economy (not just capital markets) will drive policy. A challenge bigger than the 'Great Depression' and the global financial crisis is exacerbated by accelerating technological changes making whole industries obsolete. * China: It has become an adversary for global dominance, not an opportunity.

The China story gets even more complex with the developing Russia-China “axis” in play. * Protectionism and challenges to multilateralism: Trump’s 'America First' policy and success with Canada, Nafta, etc, and growing reservations about free trade make major shifts in trade policy a political hot-potato. * Climate change back to the fore: Four years of Trump denials did not make climate change disappear. It will be an integral part of international trade discussions.