September 2023 DPR Realty
Home Sales
Existing
Home
Sales Receded
16.6% Year-Over-Year, by Region, Seasonally Adjusted Annual Rate
Source: NAR
-16.6% -23.8% -20.0% -14.3% -12.5% U.S.
South West
Northeast Midwest
Two factors are driving current sales activity – inventory availability and mortgage rates. Unfortunately, both have been unfavorable to buyers.
- Lawrence Yun, Chief Economist, NAR
Inventory
Average Annual Inventory of Homes for Sale
Source: NAR
4.8 4.5 4.6 4.7 4.6 4.3 4.5 6.5 8.9 10.4 8.8 9.4 8.3 5.9 4.9 5.2 4.8 4.4 3.9 4.0 3.9 3.1 2.3 2.7 3.3 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 Now
Single-Family Housing Units Completed
Source: Census
1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 Average Annual Units Completed 14 Straight Years Below 52-Year Average
Today’s Homeowners Are Staying in Their Houses for an Average of 9+ Years
Source: NAR
5 6 6 6 6 6 7 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 7 8 9 9 9 10 9 10 10 9 10 10 8 10 1985 1987 1989 1991 1993 1995 1997 2000 2002 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022
1985-2009 Average Tenure was 6.1 Years
2010-2022 Average Tenure was 9.3 Years
Months Inventory of Homes for Sale
Last 12 Months
Source: NAR
3.2 3.2 3.3 3.3 2.9 2.9 2.6 2.6 2.9 3.0 3.1 3.3 2.8 2.8 2.7 2.7 3.1 3.1 3.4 3.4 3.1 3 2.9 2.7 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec Jan-23 Feb Mar Apr May June July
Current Inventory Shortage To Reach 6 Months
New Listing Count August Each Year
Source: Realtor.com
500,032 492,540 479,588 387,076 2017 2018 2019 2023
Active Listing Count August Each Year
Source: Realtor.com
1,324,680 1,285,156 1,235,018 669,173 2017 2018 2019 2023
Total Listing Count August Each Year
Source: Realtor.com
1,709,732 1,670,920 1,659,800 1,099,344 2017 2018 2019 2023
Listing Counts Low in Every Category Compared to Last 3 Normal Years
Source: Realtor.com
While inventory continues to be in short supply, August witnessed an unusual uptick in newly listed homes compared to July, hopefully signaling a return in seller activity heading toward the fall season which typically is the best time to buy a home.
- Realtor.com
New Listings Tick Up This Month
New Monthly Listing Counts
200,000 250,000 300,000 350,000 400,000 450,000 500,000 550,000 600,000 650,000 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 Source: Realtor.com
August 2023 387,076 -7.5% Y-O-Y
Lending Landscape
Inflation and 30-Year Fixed-Rate Mortgage
Mortgage Rates Tend To Track Government Bonds and Inflation with a Lag
Sources: BLS, Freddie Mac
-5.0 0.0 5.0 10.0 15.0 20.0 1972 1973 1974 1975 1976 1977 1978 1979 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 Inflation - CPI 30-Yr Fixed-Rate Mortgage
Nepo-Homebuyers
38%
of recent homebuyers under age 30 used either a cash gift from a family member or an inheritance in order to afford their down payment.
As a result, a large share of young homeowners can be labeled “Nepo-Homebuyers,” meaning they received family money to purchase a home.
Source: Forbes
Down payment assistance can help firsttime homebuyers who don’t have help from family to afford a home. Rental assistance can help families reduce their costs and help them save up for a down payment.
-
Forbes
Home Prices
Consumer Confidence in Home Prices Weakened Toward the End of 2022
Source: Fannie Mae
18% 17% 11% 9% 8% 8% 11% 6% 14% 10% 16% 19% 37% 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 % of Americans in Each December Who Think Prices Will Go Down over Next 12 Months
We Are Starting To Show Improvement
Source: Fannie Mae37% 35% 31% 32% 28% 26% 24% January February March April May June July % of Americans Who Think Prices Will Go Down over Next 12 Months
1 of 4 Still Believe Prices Will Depreciate
Percent Change in Home Values
Month-Over-Month, Case-Shiller, FHFA (SA), CoreLogic (NSA)
1.6 1.9 2 1.6 1.3 0.4 -0.3 -0.9 -0.8 -0.2 -0.3 -0.3 -0.2 0.2 0.4 0.5 0.7 0.7 Case-Shiller 1.6 1.9 1.5 1.6 1.2 0.1 -0.6 -0.7 0.1 0 -0.1 -0.3 0.1 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.7 0.3 FHFA 1.4 2.2 3.3 2.6 1.8 0.6 -0.3 -0.7 -0.5 -0.1 -0.2 -0.4 -0.2 0.8 1.6 1.2 0.9 1.6 Jan '22 Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan '23 Feb Mar Apr May Jun CoreLogic
Percent Change in Home Values
Month-Over-Month, Zillow, Black Knight, & Freddie Mac (SA)
Black Knight
Freddie Mac
1.6 1.4 1.4 1.4 0.8 0.1 -0.8 -0.5 -0.2 -0.2 -0.3 -0.2 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.5 0.7 Jan '22 Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan
Feb Mar Apr May Jun
1.5 1.8 2 2 1.7 1.4 0.7 0.1 -0.3 -0.3 -0.3 -0.3 -0.2 0 0.4 0.3 0.4 0.6 Zillow 1.3 2.3 2.7 2.5 1.5 0.2 -1.1 -1 -0.5 -0.4 -0.4 -0.5 0.1 0.5 0.7 0.7 0.8 0.7
'23
Home Price Expectation Survey
A nationwide panel of over one hundred economists, real estate experts, and investment and market strategists.
Source: Pulsenomics
Estimated Home Price Performance
to December, as Forecasted in Q3 2023 Pre-Bubble Bubble Bust Recovery To Date 3.32% 2.17% 3.24% 3.79% 4.18% 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 Source: HPES
December
2023 Year End Home Price Forecasts
Source: USA Today, Lance Lambert
Entity Original Forecast Current Forecast MBA -0.6% 0.0% Fannie Mae -1.5% 3.9% Morgan Stanley -4% 0.0% AEI -15 to -20% 6% Zillow -0.7% 5.5% Wells Fargo -5.5% 2.2% Goldman Sachs -5 to 10% 1.8% Home Price Expectation Survey -2.04% 3.32%
12/2022 vs. Current Forecast
48-Year Average Monthly Price Movement
Case-Shiller NSA, Month-Over-Month, Price Movement 1973-2021
Source: Case-Shiller
0.12 0.25 0.64 0.86 0.88 0.79 0.64 0.44 0.25 0.15 0.10 0.12 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
Source: Case-Shiller
Case-Shiller NSA, Month-Over-Month,1973-2021 and 2023 0.1 0.3 0.6 0.9 0.9 0.8 -0.5 0.2 1.3 1.5 1.2 0.9 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun 48-Year Average 2023
48-Year Average vs. 2023 Price Movement
Equity
70.7% of Mortgage Rates Less Than 4% Current FHFA Loans with Mortgage Rate at Time of Origination
Source: FHFA 26.0% 44.7% 20.3% 5.3% 3.7% ≤ 3% 3.01-4% 4.01-5% 5.01-6% > 6%
Lock-In Rates Limit New Inventory
Current FHFA Loans with Mortgage Rate at Time of Origination
Probably Yes
Not Selling Must Think Hard Before Selling
≤ 3% 3.01-4% 4.01-5% 5.01-6% > 6%
Probably Not Selling
Source: FHFA
Mortgage Rates Are Less Relevant to Older Homeowners
About 1 in 4 U.S. homeowners (26%) say high mortgage rates would not impact their decision on when to sell their home.
Of those 26% of homeowners, 43% say it’s because they would not need a mortgage to buy a new home.
Source: Credit Karma
Mortgage Rates Are Less Relevant to Older Homeowners
Baby Boomers
Source: Credit Karma
Percent Not Impacted by Generation 35% 23% 14% 20%
Gen
Millennials Gen Z
X
Americans Sitting on Tremendous Equity
68.7% Have Paid off Their Mortgage or Have at Least 50% Equity 30%
Mortgaged Homes
w/ > 50% Equity
Mortgaged Homes
w/ 30-50% Equity
Mortgaged Homes
w/ 10-30% Equity
Mortgaged Homes
w/ 0-9% Equity
Mortgaged Homes in Negative Equity
Owns the Home
Free and Clear
Source:
ATTOM
FHFA, Census,
20.8% 8.6% 1.72% 0.12%
38.7%
Fall Buyer & Seller Guides: Now Available
Great agents take great pride in making things easier to understand.
slipped-2-2-in-july
https://www.nar.realtor/research-and-statistics/researchreports/highlights-from-the-profile-of-home-buyers-andsellers
for-down-payment/?sh=260546012738
Resources Slide(s) Description Link(s) 4, 7, 10 Existing Home Sales Graph, Inventory Graphs
https://www.nar.realtor/newsroom/existing-home-sales-
5 Yun Quote
8 SF Completions Graph www.census.gov/construction/nrc/xls/co_cust.xls 9 Tenure Graph
https://www.nar.realtor/topics/existing-home-sales
https://www.nar.realtor/newsroom/existing-home-salesslipped-2-2-in-july
11-14, 16 Listings Graphs https://www.realtor.com/research/data/ 15 Realtor.com Quote https://www.realtor.com/research/july-2023-data/ 18 Inflation & Rates Graph https://www.bls.gov/cpi/
19, 20 Nepo-Homebuyers Graph & Quote
epo-homebuyers-40-of-under-30s-received-family-money-
https://www.freddiemac.com/pmms
https://www.forbes.com/sites/darylfairweather/2023/08/21/n
Resources
Slide(s) Description
Link(s)
22, 24, 25
Consumer Confidence
Graphs
M-O-M Home Prices
Graph 1
https://www.spglobal.com/spdji/en/indices/indicators/spcorelogic-case-shiller-us-national-home-price-nsaindex/#news-research
https://www.fanniemae.com/research-and-insights/surveysindices/national-housing-survey/national-housing-surveyarchive 26
https://www.fhfa.gov/DataTools/Downloads/Pages/HousePrice-Index.aspx
M-O-M Home Prices
https://www.freddiemac.com/research/indices/house-priceindex
https://www.corelogic.com/category/intelligence/reports/ho me-price-insights/ 27
Graph 2
https://www.blackknightinc.com/data-reports/? https://www.zillow.com/research/data/ 28, 29
HPES
https://pulsenomics.com/surveys/#home-price-expectations
Resources
https://pulsenomics.com/surveys/#home-price-expectations
https://www.zillow.com/research/housing-marketchallenges-32923/
https://www.zillow.com/research/data/
https://www.corelogic.com/intelligence/us-home-priceinsights-july-2023/ www.mba.org
https://www.fanniemae.com/research-and-insights/forecast
https://twitter.com/NewsLambert/status/1671900591113609 216 (Morgan Stanley)
https://twitter.com/NewsLambert/status/1671556169712672 768 (AEI)
https://twitter.com/NewsLambert/status/1686959362563092 480 (Wells Fargo)
https://twitter.com/NewsLambert/status/1691799764466008 217 (Goldman Sachs)
https://ustoday.news/a-20-drop-in-house-prices-7-forecastmodels-tend-to-crash-here-the-other-13-models-show-thehousing-market-in-2023/ (Wells Fargo)
Slide(s) Description
30 Price Forecasts Table
Link(s)
https://www.spglobal.com/spdji/en/indices/indicators/spcorelogic-case-shiller-us-national-home-price-nsaindex/#overview
https://www.fhfa.gov/DataTools/Downloads/Pages/NationalMortgage-Database-Aggregate-Data.aspx
https://www.creditkarma.com/about/commentary/mortgagerate-fears-are-very-real-but-not-as-much-for-olderhomeowners
https://data.census.gov/cedsci/all?q=mortgage
https://www.attomdata.com/news/market-trends/homesales-prices/attom-q2-2023-u-s-home-equity-andunderwater-report/
https://www.fhfa.gov/Media/Blog/Pages/HomeownersEquity-Remains-High.aspx
Slide(s) Description Link(s) 31, 32 Price Movement Graphs
Resources
34, 35 Rate Lock Graphs
36, 37 Rate Relevancy by Age
38 Equity Pie Chart
Updates
https://www.nar.realtor/research-and-statistics/researchreports/realtors-confidence-index
http://www.census.gov/construction/nrs/pdf/newressales.pdf
http://www.census.gov/newhomesales
http://www.census.gov/construction/nrs/pdf/newressales.pdf
https://www.nar.realtor/topics/existing-home-sales
https://www.nar.realtor/research-and-statistics/housingstatistics/pending-home-sales
https://www.spglobal.com/spdji/en/indices/indicators/spcorelogic-case-shiller-20-city-composite-home-price-nsaindex/#news-research
https://www.corelogic.com/intelligence/u-s-home-priceinsights/
Resources Slide(s) Description Link(s) 50 Confidence Index
51-53, 61, 63, 64, 71-75 Existing Home Sales
54-57 New Home Sales
https://www.nar.realtor/topics/existing-home-sales
58 Total Home Sales
59, 60 Pending Home Sales
65-67 Case Shiller
68 CoreLogic Price Forecast
resources/research-and-economics/forecasts-andcommentary
http://www.fanniemae.com/portal/researchinsights/forecast.html
https://www.mba.org/news-research-andresources/research-and-economics/forecasts-andcommentary
https://www.nar.realtor/research-and-statistics
https://www.mba.org/news-research-andresources/newsroom
https://www.mba.org/news-research-andresources/research-and-economics/single-familyresearch/mortgage-credit-availability-index
Resources Slide(s) Description Link(s) 70-77 Inventory https://www.nar.realtor/topics/existing-home-sales
https://www.realtor.com/research/data/ 79 Showing Activity https://www.showingtime.com/blog/ 81, 82, 84, 85 Mortgage Rates
https://www.mba.org/news-research-and-
83 Mortgage Rate Projections
http://www.census.gov/construction/nrs/pdf/newressales.pdf
http://www.freddiemac.com/pmms/pmms_archives.html http://www.freddiemac.com/research/forecast/
87, 88 Mortgage Credit Availability
90-93 Northeast Valley Charts Arizona Regional MLS as of September 14, 2023
Home Sales
Average Days on the Market
46 49 44 36 24 26 27 29 31 31 36 38 41 41 36 29 27 26 24 22 22 21 21 21 21 20 18 17 17 17 17 17 17 18 18 19 19 18 17 17 16 14 14 16 19 24 26 33 34 29 22 18 18 20 Jan-19 Feb Mar Apr May June July Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec Jan-20 Feb Mar Apr May June July Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec Jan-21 Feb Mar Apr May June July Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec Jan-22 Feb Mar Apr May June July Aug Sept Nov Dec Jan-23 Feb Mar Apr May June July Source: NAR
July 2023
Existing Home Sales
Since January 2014
Source: NAR
3,800,000 4,300,000 4,800,000 5,300,000 5,800,000 6,300,000 6,800,000 Jan 2014 Jan 2015 Jan 2016 Jan 2017 Jan 2018 Jan 2019 Jan 2020 Jan 2021 Jan 2022 Jan 2023
Existing Home Sales
Year-Over-Year, by Region
Source: NAR
-18.9% -21.5% -19.5% -16.2% -22.7%
U.S. Northeast Midwest South West
Existing Home Sales
Source: NAR
In Thousands 0 100 200 300 400 500 600 January February March April May June July August September October November December 2021 2022 2023
New Home Sales
Source: Census
In Thousands 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 January February March April May June July August September October November December 2021 2022 2023
New Home Sales
Source: Census
Annualized in Thousands 360 460 560 660 760 860 960 1060 jun-14 Jan-15 Jan-16 Jan-17 Jan-18 Jan-19 Jan-20 Jan-21 Jan-22 Jan-23
New Home Sales
Percent of Distribution by Price Range
Source: Census
0% 8% 16% 15% 14% 6% Under $150K $150-$199K $200-299K $300-$399K $400-$499K $500-$749K Over $750K
* Less Than 500 Units or Less Than 0.5 Percent
* *
New Homes Selling Fast
Median Months from Completion to Sold
Source: Census
3.2 3.6 3.6 3.4 3.5 3.6 3.4 3.2 3.5 3.1 3.2 3.0 3.4 3.4 3.4 3.3 3.6 4.2 4.3 4.5 4.5 4.2 4.0 3.6 3.2 3.7 5.1 4.9 4.5 4.1 4.5 3.6 3.1 2.5 2.9 3.2 2.8 2.7 3.5 3.5 2.8 2.9 2.4 1.9 1.5 1.5 1.7 1.9 2.4 2.6 2.7 2.5 2.7 2.6 2.3 Jan-19 Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec Jan-20 Feb Mar Apr May June July Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec Jan-21 Feb Mar Apr May June July Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec Jan-22 Feb Mar Apr May June July Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec Jan-23 Feb Mar Apr May June July
Total Home Sales
Source: Census
In Thousands 443 436 567 587 593 676 646 631 604 577 557 574 422 423 524 517 557 575 495 528 477 419 372 374 286 325 421 393 475 494 431 January February March April May June July August September October November December 2021 2022 2023
Pending Home Sales
Source: NAR
60 70 80 90 100 110 120 130 140 January 2012 January 2013 January 2014 January 2015 January 2016 January 2017 January 2018 January 2019 January 2020 January 2021 January 2022 January 2023
100 = Historically Healthy Level
Pending Home Sales
Year-Over-Year by Region
Source: NAR
100 = Historically Healthy Level -14.0% -20.2% -16.0% -10.9% -12.8% U.S. Northeast Midwest South West
Percentage of Distressed Property Sales
Distressed sales (Foreclosures and Short Sales) represented 1% of sales in July.
Source: NAR
0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35% Jan 2012 Jan 2013 Jan 2014 Jan 2015 Jan 2016 Jan 2017 Jan 2018 Jan 2019 Jan 2020 Jan 2021 Jan 2022 Jan 2023 4%
Home Prices
Sales Price of Existing Homes
Year-Over-Year, by Region
1.9% 5.5% 3.9% 1.7% 0.0% U.S. Northeast Midwest South West Source: NAR
% Change in Sales
Year-Over-Year, by Price Range
Source: NAR
$0-100K $100-250K $250-500K $500-750K $750K-1M $1M+ % change in sales -19.3% -23.4% -15.5% -14.7% -10.9% -7.2% -19.3% -23.4% -15.5% -14.7% -10.9% -7.2%
Change in Home Prices
Year-Over-Year
Source: S&P Case-Shiller
0% 5% 10% 15% 20% Jun 2012 Jan 2013 Jan 2014 Jan 2015 Jan 2016 Jan 2017 Jan 2018 Jan 2019 Jan 2020 Jan 2021 Jan 2022 Jan 2023
Change in Home Prices
Year-Over-Year, 20 City Composite
Source: S&P Case-Shiller 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% Jan 2014 Mar May Jul Sept Nov Jan 2015 Mar May Jul Sept Nov Jan 2016 Mar May Jul Sept Nov Jan 2017 Mar May Jul Sept Nov Jan 2018 Mar May Jul Sept Nov Jan 2019 Mar May Jul Sept Nov Jan 2020 Mar May Jul Sept Nov Jan 2021 Mar May July Sept Nov Jan 2022 Mar May July Sept Nov Jan 2023 Mar May
Change in Home Prices
Year-Over-Year, 20 City Composite
Source:
Case-Shiller
S&P
21.1% 21.2% 20.5% 18.7% 16.0% 13.1% 10.4% 8.6% 6.8% 4.6% 2.6% 1.0% 1.6% 1.7% 1.5% 0.9% Mar Apr May June July Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec Jan 2023 Feb Mar Apr May June
Year-Over-Year % Change in Price
Source: CoreLogic
Home Price Insights – June 2023
Current Forecast
US
1.6% 4.3%
Housing Inventory
Change in Inventory
Month-Over-Month, August 2023
Source: Realtor.com
Months Inventory of Homes for Sale
Source: NAR
2011 - Today 1.5 2.5 3.5 4.5 5.5 6.5 7.5 8.5 9.5 January 2011 January 2012 January 2013 January 2014 January 2015 January 2016 January 2017 January 2018 January 2019 January 2020 January 2021 January 2022 January 2023
Months Inventory of Homes for Sale
Since 2019
Source: NAR
3.8 3.6 3.8 4.2 4.3 4.3 4.2 4.0 4.0 3.9 3.7 3.0 3.1 3.1 3.3 4.0 4.6 3.9 3.1 3.0 2.7 2.5 2.3 1.9 1.9 2.0 2.1 2.3 2.5 2.5 2.6 2.6 2.4 2.4 2.1 1.7 1.6 1.7 1.9 2.2 2.6 2.9 3.2 3.2 3.2 3.3 3.3 2.9 2.9 2.6 2.6 2.9 3.0 3.1 3.3 1.5 2.0 2.5 3.0 3.5 4.0 4.5 5.0 5.5 6.0
Months Inventory of Homes for Sale
Last 12 Months
Source: NAR
3.2 3.2 3.3 3.3 2.9 2.9 2.6 2.6 2.9 3.0 3.1 3.3 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec Jan-23 Feb Mar Apr May June July
Year-Over-Year Inventory Levels
Source: NAR
-30% -20% -10% 0% 10% 20% 30% January 2014 January 2015 January 2016 January 2017 January 2018 January 2019 January 2020 January 2021 January 2022 January 2023
Year-Over-Year Inventory Levels
Last 12 Months
Source: NAR
0.0% 0.0% -0.8% -0.8% 2.7% 10.2% 15.3% 15.3% 5.4% 1.0% -6.1% -13.6% -14.6% July Aug Nov Dec Jan-23 Feb Mar Apr July Sept Oct May June
New Home Monthly Inventory
Seasonally Adjusted, Last 13 Months
Source: Census
10.1 8.7 9.7 9.7 9.4 8.5 8.1 8.4 8.1 7.6 7.3 7.5 7.3 Jul Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec Jan 23 Feb Mar Apr May June July
New Home Monthly Inventory
Non-Seasonally Adjusted
Source: Census
5.6 5.5 5.9 7.6 7.6 9.5 10.4 9.2 10.7 10.9 11.4 9.7 7.9 7.6 6.9 7 6.4 7.4 7.4 Jan Feb Mar Apr May June July Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec 2022 2023
Buyer Demand
Buyer Foot Traffic Declines Slightly, Deviating from Seasonal Trends
Year-Over-Year Increase in Showing Activity, June 2023
Michael Lane, Vice President & General Manager, Showing Time“June’s slowdown in showing activity is typical as we approach the fall season, and waning buyer activity with it. But showing traffic didn’t slow as much as we would expect in a typical year and decreased far less than the last two pandemic years, Time will tell whether June’s smaller-than-typical decrease is a sign of increased demand to come and what role limited inventory will play in showing activity heading into peak summer.”
Source: ShowingTime
19.7% 23.9% 19.9% 14.3% 5.9%
U.S. Northeast Midwest South West
Mortgage Rates
Mortgage Rates
30-Year Fixed Rate, January 2018–Today
2.0 2.5 3.0 3.5 4.0 4.5 5.0 5.5 6.0 6.5 7.0 7.5 8.0 1/4/2018 2/1/2018 3/1/2018 3/29/2018 4/26/2018 5/24/2018 6/21/2018 7/19/2018 8/16/2018 9/13/2018 10/11/2018 11/8/2018 12/6/2018 1/3/2019 1/31/2019 2/28/2019 3/28/2019 4/25/2019 5/23/2019 6/20/2019 7/18/2019 8/15/2019 9/12/2019 10/10/2019 11/7/2019 12/5/2019 1/2/2020 1/30/2020 2/27/2020 3/26/2020 4/23/2020 5/21/2020 6/18/2020 7/16/2020 8/13/2020 9/10/2020 10/8/2020 11/5/2020 12/3/2020 12/31/2020 1/28/2021 2/25/2021 3/25/2021 4/22/2021 5/20/2021 6/17/2021 7/15/2021 8/12/2021 9/9/2021 10/7/2021 11/4/2021 12/2/2021 12/30/2021 1/27/2022 2/24/2022 3/24/2022 4/21/2022 5/19/2022 6/16/2022 7/14/2022 8/11/2022 9/8/2022 10/6/2022 11/3/2022 12/1/2022 12/29/2022 1/26/2023 2/23/2023 3/23/2023 4/20/2023 5/18/2023 6/15/2023 7/13/2023 8/10/2023 Source: Freddie Mac
7.18%
Mortgage Rates
30-Year Fixed Rate, January 2016–Today
7.18%
2.0 2.5 3.0 3.5 4.0 4.5 5.0 5.5 6.0 6.5 7.0 7.5 8.0 1/7/2016 2/7/2016 3/7/2016 4/7/2016 5/7/2016 6/7/2016 7/7/2016 8/7/2016 9/7/2016 10/7/2016 11/7/2016 12/7/2016 1/7/2017 2/7/2017 3/7/2017 4/7/2017 5/7/2017 6/7/2017 7/7/2017 8/7/2017 9/7/2017 10/7/2017 11/7/2017 12/7/2017 1/7/2018 2/7/2018 3/7/2018 4/7/2018 5/7/2018 6/7/2018 7/7/2018 8/7/2018 9/7/2018 10/7/2018 11/7/2018 12/7/2018 1/7/2019 2/7/2019 3/7/2019 4/7/2019 5/7/2019 6/7/2019 7/7/2019 8/7/2019 9/7/2019 10/7/2019 11/7/2019 12/7/2019 1/7/2020 2/7/2020 3/7/2020 4/7/2020 5/7/2020 6/7/2020 7/7/2020 8/7/2020 9/7/2020 10/7/2020 11/7/2020 12/7/2020 1/7/2021 2/7/2021 3/7/2021 4/7/2021 5/7/2021 6/7/2021 7/7/2021 8/7/2021 9/7/2021 10/7/2021 11/7/2021 12/7/2021 1/7/2022 2/7/2022 3/7/2022 4/7/2022 5/7/2022 6/7/2022 7/7/2022 8/7/2022 9/7/2022 10/7/2022 11/7/2022 12/7/2022 1/7/2023 2/7/2023 3/7/2023 4/7/2023 5/7/2023 6/7/2023 7/7/2023 8/7/2023 Source: Freddie Mac
Mortgage Rate Projections
September 2023 Quarter Fannie Mae MBA NAR Average of All Three 2023 Q4 6.70% 6.20% 6.30% 6.40% 2024 Q1 6.50% 5.90% 6.10% 6.17% 2024 Q2 6.30% 5.60% 6.00% 5.97% 2024 Q3 6.20% 5.30% 6.00% 5.83%
Mortgage Rates
30-Year Fixed Rate
January 2019 – Today Actual Interest Rates
Where Are They Going?
2.0 3.0 4.0 5.0 6.0 7.0 8.0 2019 1/31 3/7 4/4 5/2 6/6 7/3 8/1 9/5 10/3 11/7 12/5 2020 2/6 3/5 4/2 5/7 6/4 7/2 8/6 9/3 10/1 11/5 12/3 2021 2/4 3/4 4/1 5/6 6/3 7/1 8/5 9/2 10/7 11/4 12/2 2022 2/3 3/3 4/7 5/5 6/2 7/7 8/4 9/1 10/6 11/3 12/1 1/5 2/2 3/2 4/6 5/4 6/1 7/6 8/3 6.2 5.9 5.6 5.3 2023 Q4 2024 Q1 2024 Q2 2024 Q3
Source: Freddie Mac, MBA
Mortgage Rates
30-Year Fixed Rate
Source: MBA
2018 Q1 2018 Q2 2018 Q3 2018 Q4 2019 Q1 2019 Q2 2019 Q3 2019 Q4 2020 Q1 2020 Q2 2020 Q3 2020 Q4 2021 Q1 2021 Q2 2021 Q3 2021 Q4 2022 Q1 2022 Q2 2022 Q3 2022 Q4 2023 Q1 2023 Q2 2023 Q3 2023 Q4 2024 Q1 2024 Q2 2024 Q3 2024 Q4 Rate 4.3 4.5 4.6 4.8 4.4 4 3.7 3.7 3.5 3.2 3.0 2.8 2.9 3.0 2.9 3.1 3.9 5.3 5.7 6.6 6.4 6.5 6.8 6.2 5.9 5.6 5.3 5 2.5 3 3.5 4 4.5 5 5.5 6 6.5 7 7.5 - Actual - Projected 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2024 2023
Mortgage Credit Availability
Mortgage Credit Availability Index (MCAI)
Source: MBA
July 2023 90 100 110 120 130 140 150 160 170 180 190 Apr 2013 Jan 2014 Jan 2015 Jan 2016 Jan 2017 Jan 2018 Jan 2019 Jan 2020 Jan 2021 Jan 2022 Jan 2023
Lending Standards Still Under Control
Source: MBA
Historic Data for the Mortgage Credit Availability Index (MCAI) 0 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 800 900 June 2004 June 2005 June 2006 June 2007 June 2008 June 2009 June 2010 June 2011 June 2012 June 2013 June 2014 June 2015 June 2016 June 2017 June 2018 June 2019 June 2020 June 2021 June 2022 June 2023 July 2023 Housing Bubble: 868.7 96.3
Housing Market Statistics
for Northeast Valley Single Family Homes
in Carefree, Cave Creek, Fort McDowell, Fountain Hills, Paradise Valley, Rio Verde and Scottsdale, Arizona
Average Price per Sq Ft for Sold Northeast
Valley Single Family Homes
Average Days on Market for Sold Northeast Valley Single Family Homes
Number of Active Listings
for Northeast Valley Single Family Homes
Average Price per Sq Ft for Active Northeast Valley Single Family Listings
Peter Shambreskis, REALTOR®, ABR, CRS, GRI, SFR 480-229-6468 Corinne Howard, REALTOR®, ePRO, GRI, SFR, SRS 480-229-6467 info@ShambreskisAndHoward.com www.ShowScottsdaleHomes.com CONTACT US TO DISCUSS YOUR LOCAL ARIZONA REAL ESTATE MARKET