May 2023 DPR Realty
On a quarterly basis, home prices rose a seasonally adjusted 1.0 percent in Q1 2023 . . . the fact that prices rose slightly in the first quarter is evidence of significant pent-up mortgage demand, despite ongoing affordability constraints.
- Doug Duncan, SVP & Chief Economist, Fannie Mae
Have Home Value Declines Stabilized?
M-O-M % Change in Home Values (Seasonally Adjusted)
Source:
Case-Shiller, FHFA
1.6 1.9 2 1.6 1.3 0.4 -0.3 -0.9 -0.8 -0.2 -0.3 -0.3 -0.2 0.2 Jan 22 Feb Mar Apr May Jun Feb Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec 1.6 1.9 1.5 1.6 1.2 0.1 -0.6 -0.7 0.1 0 -0.1 -0.3 0.1 0.5 Jan 22 Feb Mar Apr May Jun Sept Oct Jan 23 Feb Jul Aug Nov Dec Case-Shiller FHFA Jan 23 CoreLogic 1.4 2.2 3.3 2.6 1.8 0.6 -0.3 -0.7 -0.5 -0.1 -0.2 -0.4 -0.2 0.8 1.6 Jan 22 Feb Mar Apr May Jun Feb Mar Jul Aug Nov Dec Sep Oct Jan 23
Just five months ago, prices were declining on a seasonally adjusted month-overmonth basis in 92% of all major U.S. markets. Fast forward to March, and the situation has done a literal 180, with prices now rising in 92% of markets from February.
- Andy Walden, VP of Enterprise Research, Black Knight
Major Change in Fannie Mae Forecast
Fannie Mae’s Percent Change in Home Values in 2023
-4.2%
Source: Fannie Mae
Report
Report
-1.2% March
April
Inventory & Foreclosure Update
Months’ Inventory of Homes for Sale
Market (6-7 Months) Source: NAR
Neutral
Market (< 6 Months)
Market (> 7 Months) Today 2007 2006 2008 2010 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 1999
Sellers’
Buyers’
New Report:
Source: ATTOM
Foreclosure Headlines
April 19, 2023
Over 1M Fewer Foreclosures
in Last 3 Years
U.S. Properties with Foreclosure Filings
Source: ATTOM
676,535 624,753 493,066 214,323 151,153 324,273 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 Short 161,26 0 Foreclosu res Short 383,795 Foreclosures Short 446,965 Foreclosures Short 273,845 Foreclosures 598,118 (Average: 2017 – 2019)
U.S. Properties with Foreclosure Filings
Source: ATTOM
0 100,000 200,000 300,000 400,000 500,000 600,000 700,000 800,000 900,000 1,000,000
U.S. Foreclosure Activity Continues To Climb in Q1 2023
There were 95,712 U.S. properties with foreclosure filings during the first quarter of 2023.
A total of 65,346 U.S. properties started the foreclosure process in Q1 2023.
Nationwide, 1 in every 1,459 housing units had a foreclosure filing in Q1 2023.
Lenders repossessed 12,518 U.S. properties through foreclosure (REO) in Q1 2023.
Source: ATTOM
There’s no reason to panic, at least not yet. Foreclosure filings began ticking up in late 2021, after the federal foreclosure moratorium ended. The moratorium was enacted in the early days of COVID-19, when millions of Americans lost their jobs, to prevent a tsunami of homeowners losing their properties.
- Clare Trapasso, Executive News Editor, Realtor.com
“. . . a mild recession starting later this year, with a recovery over the subsequent two years.”
Given their assessment of the potential economic effects of the recent bankingsector developments, the staff’s projection at the time of the March meeting included a mild recession starting later this year, with a recovery over the subsequent two years.
Fed Meeting Summary, March 2023
-
The National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) defines a recession as:
What Is a Recession?
“a significant decline in economic activity spread across the economy, lasting more than a few months, normally visible in real GDP, real income, employment, industrial production, and wholesale-retail sales.”
Source: NBER
How Would Housing Be Impacted by a Recession?
During a traditional recession, the Fed will usually lower interest rates. This creates an incentive for people to spend money and stimulate the economy. It also typically leads to more affordable mortgage rates, which leads to more opportunity for homebuyers
. - Bankrate
Pros vs. Cons of Buying During a Recession
Pros
• Less competition: A recession often puts people in a difficult financial position, leaving them unable to afford a new home. This results in less competition within the market for those who can still afford it.
• Lower prices: With fewer buyers, home sellers will likely no longer see multiple offers or bidding wars for their properties. This can lead to lower home prices.
• Lower rates: During a recession, the Federal Reserve will often lower interest rates to stimulate the economy, which can result in more favorable rates for borrowers getting mortgage loans.
Cons
• Stricter lending requirements: To protect their business during a recession, lenders may institute stricter requirements on mortgages to decrease the possibility of a borrower being unable to fulfill a loan.
• Fewer options available: With less competition and lower prices, some sellers will take their home off the market or opt to wait it out, leaving less available inventory for buyers to choose from.
• Economic uncertainty: Typically, many people lose their jobs during a recession, and other conditions may cause people’s finances to be less than stable as well.
Liquidity can be important during a period of economic instability, and having your cash tied up in real estate may not be ideal.
Source: Bankrate
A Recession Does Not Mean Falling Prices
Home Price Change During Last 6 Recessions
Balance
Sources: CoreLogic, The
6.1% 3.5% -1.9% 6.6% -19.7% 6.0% 1980 1981 2001 2020 2008 1991
A Recession Means Falling Mortgage Rates
Mortgage Rate Changes During the Last 6 Recessions
Sources: Freddie Mac, Mortgage Specialists
-4.25 -5.00 -2.25 -0.63 -1.13 -1.00 1980 1981 1991 2001 2008 2020
Current Rate on Existing Mortgages
Source: FHFA
2022 23.6% 38.5% 20.4% 9.4% 8.2% <=3% 3.01-4% 4.01-5% 5.01-6% >6%
Q4
Americans Sitting on Tremendous Equity
67.6% Have Paid off Their Mortgage or Have at Least 50% Equity
Mortgaged Homes with greater than 50% Equity
28.9%
38.7%
Mortgaged Homes with less than 50% Equity
32.4%
Owns the Home Free and Clear
Sources: Census, ATTOM
https://www.fanniemae.com/research-and-insights/surveysindices/fannie-mae-home-price-index
https://www.spglobal.com/spdji/en/indices/indicators/spcorelogic-case-shiller-us-national-home-price-nsaindex/#news-research
https://www.fhfa.gov/DataTools/Downloads/Pages/HousePrice-Index.aspx
https://www.corelogic.com/intelligence/us-home-priceinsights-may-2023/
https://www.cnbc.com/2023/05/02/home-prices-rise-inmarch-amid-competitive-spring-market.html
https://www.fanniemae.com/media/46846/display
https://www.nar.realtor/topics/existing-home-sales
https://www.attomdata.com/news/markettrends/foreclosures/attom-q1-2023-u-s-foreclosure-marketreport/
Resources Slide(s) Description Link(s) 2 Duncan Quote
3 M-O-M Change in Home Values Graph
4 Walden Quote
5 Fannie Mae Forecast Graph
7 Months’ Inventory Graph
nar.realtor
8 New Foreclosure Report
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-0419/foreclosures-on-us-properties-continued-to-rise-in-firstquarter
https://www.cbsnews.com/news/home-foreclosures-risehousing-real-estate-2023/
https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/realestate/usforeclosure-filings-jump-22percent-and-repossessions-hithighest-level-in-3-years/ar-AA1a46On?li=BBnb7Kz
https://www.realtor.com/news/trends/foreclosures-jump-isanother-wave-about-to-flood-the-housing-market/
https://www.attomdata.com/news/markettrends/foreclosures/attom-year-end-2022-u-s-foreclosuremarket-report/
https://www.attomdata.com/news/markettrends/foreclosures/attom-q1-2023-u-s-foreclosure-marketreport/
https://www.realtor.com/news/trends/foreclosures-jump-isanother-wave-about-to-flood-the-housing-market/
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/files/fomcmi nutes20230322.pdf
Resources Slide(s) Description Link(s) 9 Foreclosure Headlines
10 Foreclosure Gap Graph
11, 12 Foreclosure Filings
13 Trapasso Quote
14 Fed Quote
https://www.cnbc.com/2023/04/12/fed-expects-bankingcrisis-to-cause-a-recession-this-year-minutes-show.html
https://www.forbes.com/advisor/investing/what-is-arecession/#:~:text=NBER%20has%20its%20own%20definit ion,and%20wholesale%2Dretail%20sales.%E2%80%9D
https://www.bankrate.com/real-estate/buying-home-duringrecession/
https://www.bankrate.com/real-estate/buying-home-duringrecession/#should-you-buy
Resources Slide(s) Description Link(s) 15 March 2023 Fed Meeting Summary Quote
16 What
Recession?
Is a
18 Bankrate Quote
19 Pros vs. Cons List
https://www.corelogic.com/blog/2019/03/housingrecessions-and-recoveries.aspx
https://www.thebalance.com/the-history-of-recessions-inthe-united-states-3306011
https://www.corelogic.com/intelligence/findstories/corelogic-hpi-posted-record-year-over-year-growthin-2021/
http://www.freddiemac.com/pmms/
https://mtg-specialists.com/2022/05/11/recession-interestrates-and-real-estate/
https://www.fhfa.gov/DataTools/Downloads/Pages/NationalMortgage-Database-Aggregate-Data.aspx
https://data.census.gov/cedsci/all?q=mortgage
https://www.attomdata.com/news/market-trends/homesales-prices/attom-q1-2023-u-s-home-equity-andunderwater-report/
Resources Slide(s) Description Link(s) 20 Recession & Prices Graph
21 Recession & Rates Graph
23 Current Rate on Existing Mortgages Graph
24 American Home Equity Graph
Updates
https://www.nar.realtor/research-and-statistics/researchreports/realtors-confidence-index
http://www.census.gov/construction/nrs/pdf/newressales.pdf
http://www.census.gov/newhomesales
http://www.census.gov/construction/nrs/pdf/newressales.pdf
https://www.nar.realtor/topics/existing-home-sales
https://www.nar.realtor/research-and-statistics/housingstatistics/pending-home-sales
https://www.spglobal.com/spdji/en/indices/indicators/spcorelogic-case-shiller-20-city-composite-home-price-nsaindex/#news-research
https://www.corelogic.com/intelligence/u-s-home-priceinsights/
Resources Slide(s) Description Link(s) 33 Confidence Index
34-36, 44, 46, 47, 56-58 Existing Home Sales https://www.nar.realtor/topics/existing-home-sales 37-40 New Home Sales
41 Total Home Sales
42, 43 Pending Home Sales
48-50 Case Shiller
51 CoreLogic Price Forecast
https://www.nar.realtor/topics/existing-home-sales
http://www.census.gov/construction/nrs/pdf/newressales.pdf
https://www.realtor.com/research/data/
https://www.showingtime.com/blog/march-2023-showingindex-results/
http://www.freddiemac.com/pmms/pmms_archives.html
http://www.freddiemac.com/research/forecast/
https://www.mba.org/news-research-andresources/research-and-economics/forecasts-andcommentary
http://www.fanniemae.com/portal/researchinsights/forecast.html
https://www.mba.org/news-research-andresources/research-and-economics/forecasts-andcommentary
https://www.nar.realtor/research-and-statistics
https://www.mba.org/news-research-andresources/newsroom
https://www.mba.org/news-research-andresources/research-and-economics/single-familyresearch/mortgage-credit-availability-index
Resources Slide(s) Description Link(s) 53-60 Inventory
70 Showing Activity
64, 65, 67, 68 Mortgage Rates
66 Mortgage Rate Projections
70, 71 Mortgage Credit Availability
Home Sales
Average Days on the Market
46 49 44 36 24 26 27 29 31 31 36 38 41 41 36 29 27 26 24 22 22 21 21 21 21 20 18 17 17 17 17 17 17 18 18 19 19 18 17 17 16 14 14 16 19 24 26 33 34 29 Jan-19 Feb Mar Apr May June July Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec Jan-20 Feb Mar Apr May June July Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec Jan-21 Feb Mar Apr May June July Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec Jan-22 Feb Mar Apr May June July Aug Sept Nov Dec Jan-23 Feb Mar Source: NAR
March 2023
Existing Home Sales
Since January 2014
Source: NAR
3,800,000 4,300,000 4,800,000 5,300,000 5,800,000 6,300,000 6,800,000 Jan 2014 Jan 2015 Jan 2016 Jan 2017 Jan 2018 Jan 2019 Jan 2020 Jan 2021 Jan 2022 Jan 2023
Existing Home Sales
Year-Over-Year, by Region
Source: NAR
-22.0% -21.2% -17.6% -20.4% -30.5% U.S.
South
Northeast Midwest
West
Existing Home Sales
Source: NAR
In Thousands 0 100 200 300 400 500 600 January February March April May June July August September October November December 2021 2022 2023
New Home Sales
Source: Census
In Thousands 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 January February March April May June July August September October November December 2021 2022 2023
New Home Sales
Source: Census
Annualized in Thousands 360 460 560 660 760 860 960 1060 jun-14 Jan-15 Jan-16 Jan-17 Jan-18 Jan-19 Jan-20 Jan-21 Jan-22 Jan-23
New Home Sales
Percent
by Price Range
0% 7% 19% 15% 17% 8% Under $150K $150-$199K $200-299K $300-$399K $400-$499K $500-$749K Over $750K Source: Census
* *
of Distribution
* Less Than 500 Units or Less Than 0.5 Percent
New Homes Selling Fast
Median Months from Completion to Sold
Source: Census
3.2 3.6 3.6 3.4 3.5 3.6 3.4 3.2 3.5 3.1 3.2 3.0 3.4 3.4 3.4 3.3 3.6 4.2 4.3 4.5 4.5 4.2 4.0 3.6 3.2 3.7 5.1 4.9 4.5 4.1 4.5 3.6 3.1 2.5 2.9 3.2 2.8 2.7 3.5 3.5 2.8 2.9 2.4 1.9 1.5 1.5 1.7 1.9 2.4 2.5 2.8 Jan-19 Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec Jan-20 Feb Mar Apr May June July Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec Jan-21 Feb Mar Apr May June July Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec Jan-22 Feb Mar Apr May June July Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec Jan-23 Feb Mar
Total Home Sales
Source: Census
In Thousands 443 436 567 587 593 676 646 631 604 577 557 574 422 423 524 517 557 575 495 528 477 419 372 374 288 326 426 January February March April May June July August September October November December 2021 2022 2023
Pending Home Sales
Source: NAR
60 70 80 90 100 110 120 130 140 January 2012 January 2013 January 2014 January 2015 January 2016 January 2017 January 2018 January 2019 January 2020 January 2021 January 2022 January 2023
100 = Historically Healthy Level
Pending Home Sales
Year-Over-Year by Region
Source: NAR
100 = Historically Healthy Level -23.2% -24.3% -21.5% -19.8% -32.2% U.S. Northeast Midwest South West
Percentage of Distressed Property Sales
Distressed Sales (Foreclosures and Short Sales) represented 1% of Sales in March.
Source: NAR
0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35% Jan 2012 Jan 2013 Jan 2014 Jan 2015 Jan 2016 Jan 2017 Jan 2018 Jan 2019 Jan 2020 Jan 2021 Jan 2022 Jan 2023 4%
Home Prices
Sales Price of Existing Homes
Year-Over-Year, by Region
-0.9% 1.0% 1.7% 0.3% -7.5% U.S. Northeast Midwest South West Source: NAR
% Change in Sales
Year-Over-Year, by Price Range
Source: NAR
$0-100K $100-250K $250-500K $500-750K $750K-1M $1M+ % -7.4% -19.8% -14.2% -21.0% -27.5% -29.4% -7.4% -19.8% -14.2% -21.0% -27.5% -29.4%
Change in Home Prices
Year-Over-Year
Source: S&P Case-Shiller
0% 5% 10% 15% 20% Jun 2012 Jan 2013 Jan 2014 Jan 2015 Jan 2016 Jan 2017 Jan 2018 Jan 2019 Jan 2020 Jan 2021 Jan 2022 Jan 2023
Change in Home Prices Year-Over-Year,
20 City Composite
Source: S&P Case-Shiller 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% Jan 2014 Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec Jan 2015 Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec Jan 2016 Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec Jan 2017 Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec Jan 2018 Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec Jan 2019 Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec Jan 2020 Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec Jan 2021 Feb Mar Apr May June July Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec Jan 2022 Feb Mar Apr May June July Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec Jan 2023 Feb
Change in Home Prices
Year-Over-Year, 20 City Composite
Source:
Case-Shiller
S&P
21.1% 21.2% 20.5% 18.7% 16.0% 13.1% 10.4% 8.6% 6.8% 4.6% 2.6% 0.4% Mar Apr May June July Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec Jan 2023 Feb
Year-Over-Year % Change in Price
Through March 2023 With Forecasts Through March 2024
3.1%
4.6% Current Forecast
Source: CoreLogic
Housing Inventory
Change in Inventory
Month-Over-Month, April 2023
Source: realtor.com
Months Inventory of Homes for Sale
Source: NAR
2011 - Today 1.5 2.5 3.5 4.5 5.5 6.5 7.5 8.5 9.5 January 2011 January 2012 January 2013 January 2014 January 2015 January 2016 January 2017 January 2018 January 2019 January 2020 January 2021 January 2022 January 2023
Months Inventory of Homes for Sale
Source: NAR
3.8 3.6 3.8 4.2 4.3 4.3 4.2 4.0 4.0 3.9 3.7 3.0 3.1 3.1 3.3 4.0 4.6 3.9 3.1 3.0 2.7 2.5 2.3 1.9 1.9 2.0 2.1 2.3 2.5 2.5 2.6 2.6 2.4 2.4 2.1 1.7 1.6 1.7 1.9 2.2 2.6 2.9 3.2 3.2 3.1 3.3 3.3 2.9 2.9 2.6 2.6 1.5 2.0 2.5 3.0 3.5 4.0 4.5 5.0 5.5 6.0 Jan-19 Feb Mar Apr May June July Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec Jan-20 Feb Mar Apr May June July Aug sept Oct Nov Dec Jan-21 Feb Mar Apr May June July Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec Jan-22 Feb Mar Apr May June July Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec Jan-23 Feb Mar
Since 2019
Months Inventory of Homes for Sale
Last 12 Months
Source: NAR
2.2 2.6 2.9 3.2 3.2 3.1 3.3 3.3 2.9 2.9 2.6 2.6 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 Apr May June July Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec Jan-23 Feb Mar
Year-Over-Year Inventory Levels
Source: NAR
-30% -20% -10% 0% 10% 20% 30% January 2014 January 2015 January 2016 January 2017 January 2018 January 2019 January 2020 January 2021 January 2022 January 2023 % 7. 5. 3. 6. 6. 5. 5. 4. 6. 5. 5. -0 -0 -0 2. -0 1. 0. -4 -1 -3 -4 -1 -3 -2 -1 -1 -3 -9 -5 -5 -1 -6 -1 -9 -6 -7 -6 -6 -9 -8 -7 -9 -6 -6 -1 -9 -1 -9 -8 -7 -6 -6 0. 0. 2. 1. 2. 4. 6. 4. 2. 2. 1. 2. 0. -1 -2 -2 -4 -5 -9 -1 -9 -1 -1 -1 -1 -2 -1 -1 -1 -2 -2 -2 -2 -2 -2 -2 -1 -1 -1 -1 -9 -1 -1 -1 -1 -9 -1 -4 2. 0. 0. -0 -0 2. 101515 5.
Year-Over-Year Inventory Levels
Last 12 Months
Source: NAR
-9.5% -10.4% -4.1% 2.4% 0.0% 0.0% -0.8% -0.8% 2.7% 10.2% 15.3% 15.3% 5.4% Mar Apr May June July August Nov Dec Jan 2023 Feb Mar July Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec Jan 2023 Feb Mar
New Home Monthly Inventory
Seasonally Adjusted, Last 12 Months
Source: Census
8.4 8.3 9.4 10.1 8.5 10.1 9.5 9.4 8.7 8.1 8.4 7.6 Apr May June Jul Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec Jan 23 Feb Mar
New Home Monthly Inventory
Non-Seasonally Adjusted
Source: Census
5.6 5.5 5.9 7.6 7.6 9.5 10.4 9.2 10.7 10.9 11.4 9.7 7.7 7.4 6.4 Jan Feb Mar Apr May June July Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec 2022 2023
Buyer Demand
Showings See an Uptick, While Listings Remain at Record Lows
Year-Over-Year Increase in Showing Activity, March 2023
Michael Lane, Vice President of Sales, Showing Time+
“March’s showing activity is promising, but it remains a regional, and local, story — as has long been true about real estate. We’re keeping an eye on mortgage rates as the continued volatility is having an impact on buyer and seller activity.”
Source: ShowingTime
-21.4% -11.0% -23.5% -30.5% -46.0% U.S. Northeast Midwest South West
Mortgage Rates
Mortgage Rates
30-Year Fixed Rate, January 2018–Today
2.0 2.5 3.0 3.5 4.0 4.5 5.0 5.5 6.0 6.5 7.0 7.5 8.0
Source: Freddie Mac
6.39%
Mortgage Rates
30-Year Fixed Rate, January 2016–Today
2.0 2.5 3.0 3.5 4.0 4.5 5.0 5.5 6.0 6.5 7.0 7.5 8.0 1/7/16 2/4 3/3 4/7 5/5 6/2 7/7 8/4 9/1 10/6 11/3 12/1 1/5/2017 2/2 3/2 3/30 4/27 5/25 6/22 7/20 8/17 9/14 10/12 11/9 12/7 1/4/2018 2/1 3/1 4/5 5/4 6/7 7/5 8/2 9/6 10/4 11/1 12/6 1/3/2019 1/31 3/7 4/4 5/2 6/6 7/3 8/1 9/5 10/3 11/7 12/5 1/2/2020 2/6 3/5 4/2 5/7 6/4 7/2 8/6 9/3 10/1 11/5 12/3 1/7/2021 2/4 3/4 4/1 5/6 6/3 7/1 8/5 9/2 10/7 11/4 12/2 1/6/2022 2/3 3/3 4/7 5/5 6/2 7/7 8/4 9/1 10/6 11/3 12/1 1/5 2/2 3/2 4/6 5/4 Source: Freddie Mac
6.39%
Mortgage Rate Projections
2023 Quarter Fannie Mae MBA NAR Average of All Three 2023 Q3 5.90% 5.80% 6.10% 5.93% 2023 Q4 5.70% 5.50% 5.80% 5.67% 2024 Q1 5.50% 5.30% 5.60% 5.47% 2024 Q2 5.40% 5.10% 5.60% 5.37%
May
Mortgage Rates
2.0 3.0 4.0 5.0 6.0 7.0 8.0 2019 1/31 3/7 4/4 5/2 6/6 7/3 8/1 9/5 10/3 11/7 12/5 2020 2/6 3/5 4/2 5/7 6/4 7/2 8/6 9/3 10/1 11/5 12/3 2021 2/4 3/4 4/1 5/6 6/3 7/1 8/5 9/2 10/7 11/4 12/2 2022 2/3 3/3 4/7 5/5 6/2 7/7 8/4 9/1 10/6 11/3 12/1 1/5 2/2 3/2 4/6 5/4 5.8 5.5 5.3 5.1 2023 Q3 2023 Q4 2024 Q1 2024 Q2
Source: Freddie Mac, MBA
30-Year Fixed Rate
January 2019 – Today Actual Interest Rates
Where Are They Going?
Mortgage Rates
30-Year Fixed Rate
Source: MBA
2018 Q1 2018 Q2 2018 Q3 2018 Q4 2019 Q1 2019 Q2 2019 Q3 2019 Q4 2020 Q1 2020 Q2 2020 Q3 2020 Q4 2021 Q1 2021 Q2 2021 Q3 2021 Q4 2022 Q1 2022 Q2 2022 Q3 2022 Q4 2023 Q1 2023 Q2 2023 Q3 2023 Q4 2024 Q1 2024 Q2 2024 Q3 2024 Q4 Rate 4.3 4.5 4.6 4.8 4.4 4 3.7 3.7 3.5 3.2 3.0 2.8 2.9 3.0 2.9 3.1 3.9 5.3 5.7 6.6 6.4 6.2 5.8 5.5 5.3 5.1 4.9 4.7 2.5 3 3.5 4 4.5 5 5.5 6 6.5 7 7.5 - Actual - Projected 2018 2019 2020 2021 2023 2022 2024
Mortgage Credit Availability
Mortgage Credit Availability Index (MCAI)
Source: MBA
March 2023 90 100 110 120 130 140 150 160 170 180 190 Apr 2013 Jan 2014 Jan 2015 Jan 2016 Jan 2017 Jan 2018 Jan 2019 Jan 2020 Jan 2021 Jan 2022 Jan 2023
Lending Standards Still Under Control
Source: MBA
Historic Data for the Mortgage Credit Availability Index (MCAI) 0 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 800 900 June 2004 June 2005 June 2006 June 2007 June 2008 June 2009 June 2010 June 2011 June 2012 June 2013 June 2014 June 2015 June 2016 June 2017 June 2018 June 2019 June 2020 June 2021 June 2022 Mar 2023 Housing Bubble: 868.7 100.5
Housing Market Statistics
for Northeast Valley Single Family Homes
in Carefree, Cave Creek, Fort McDowell, Fountain Hills, Paradise Valley, Rio Verde and Scottsdale, Arizona
Average Price per Sq Ft for Sold Northeast
Valley Single Family Homes
Average Days on Market for Sold Northeast Valley Single Family Homes
Number of Active Listings
for Northeast Valley Single Family Homes
Average Price per Sq Ft for Active Northeast Valley Single Family Listings
Peter Shambreskis, REALTOR®, ABR, CRS, GRI, SFR 480-229-6468 Corinne Howard, REALTOR®, ePRO, GRI, SFR, SRS 480-229-6467 info@ShambreskisAndHoward.com www.ShowScottsdaleHomes.com CONTACT US TO DISCUSS YOUR LOCAL ARIZONA REAL ESTATE MARKET
