January 2024
DPR Realty
CONTACT US TO DISCUSS YOUR LOCAL ARIZONA REAL ESTATE MARKET
Peter Shambreskis, REALTOR®, ABR, CRS, GRI, SFR 480-229-6468 Corinne Howard, REALTOR®, ePRO, GRI, SFR, SRS 480-229-6467 info@ShambreskisAndHoward.com www.ShowScottsdaleHomes.com
Most agents know what’s happening. Good agents understand what’s happening. Great agents can explain what’s happening.
2024 KCM Forecast
The Year of “Fives”
‘5’ Will Be the Handle (first number) on Mortgage Rates by May 5.5 Million in Total Home Sales 5% Will Be the Approximate Home Price Appreciation Rate
The Year of “Fives”
‘5’ Will Be the Handle (first number) on Mortgage Rates by May 5.5 Million in Total Home Sales 5% Will Be the Approximate Home Price Appreciation Rate
Mortgage Rates
Heading into the New Year, Mortgage Rates Remain on a Downward Trend
September 2023–Today
9/7/2023
9/28/2023
10/19/2023
11/9/2023
11/30/2023
6.61
6.67
6.95
7.03
7.22
7.29
7.44
7.5
7.76
7.79
7.63
7.57
7.49
7.31
7.19
7.18
7.12
U.S. Weekly Averages as of 12/28/2023
12/21/2023
Source: Freddie Mac
It also appears that mortgage rates are now falling again. They will almost certainly not fall to pandemic lows, although we may soon see rates under 6.0 percent, which would be low by pre-Great Recession standards.
- Dean Baker, Senior Economist, Center for Economic Research
A marked turn can be expected as mortgage rates have plunged in recent weeks.
- Lawrence Yun, Chief Economist, NAR
The Year of “Fives”
‘5’ Will Be the Handle (first number) on Mortgage Rates by May 5.5 Million in Total Home Sales 5% Will Be the Approximate Home Price Appreciation Rate
78.7% of Mortgage Rates Less Than 5% Current FHFA Loans with Mortgage Rate at Time of Origination
36.8%
22.6%
19.3% 9.8%
≤ 3%
3.01-4%
4.01-5%
5.01-6%
11.5%
> 6% Source: FHFA
“Lock-In Rates” Limit New Inventory Current FHFA Loans with Mortgage Rate at Time of Origination >6% 5.01-6% Yes
Probably Yes
4.01-5%
<3% Not Selling
Must Think Before Selling
3.01-4% Probably Not Selling
Source: FHFA
We might be at peak “lock-in effect”. Some move-up or lifestyle sellers might be coming to terms with the fact 3% and 4% mortgage rates aren’t returning anytime soon. . . . If the “lock-in effect” eases up further in 2024 . . . it could help boost existing home sales from the very low levels experienced at the end of 2023. - Lance Lambert, Founder, ResiClub
Homeowners who are selling aren’t influenced by rates, with 90.5% of successful November sellers stating they were going to sell regardless of what rates were.
- Erica Plemmons, Housing Analyst, Bright MLS
Roughly half (50.6%) of November buyers were going to buy regardless of interest rates and another quarter (23.9%) purchased with cash. Cash will continue to be king even as rates ease next year. And no matter the direction of rates, households buying out of necessity will continue to find a way to purchase.
- Erica Plemmons, Housing Analyst, Bright MLS
Top 3 Reasons Buyers Paused Decision Reasons Given for Pausing Their Purchase (Multiple Could Be Chosen)
72.1%
34.4% 17.4% Mortgage Rates
Inventory
Affordability/Home Prices Source: Bright MLS
We now forecast three consecutive 25bp cuts in March, May, and June to reset the policy rate from a level that Powell has recently taken to describing as “well into restrictive territory” rather than just “restrictive”. - Goldman Sachs, December FOMC Recap
For over 50 Years, the 30-Year Mortgage Rate Has Moved in Unison with the 10-year Treasury Yield 18
10-Year Treasury Yield 30-Year Fixed Mortgage Rate
16
Average Spread: 1.72
14 12 10 8
Current Spread
6
2.78
4 2 0
1972
1980
1990
2000
2010
2023 Source: Freddie Mac, Macrotrends
New Construction
The market currently requires a higher level of new construction inventory due to a persistent lack of resale inventory. Newly built homes available for sale accounted for 31% of total homes available for sale in November, compared to an approximate 12% historical average. - National Association of Home Builders
Home Prices
49-Year Average Monthly Price Movement Month-Over-Month, 1973–2022 (Not Seasonally Adjusted)
0.86
0.88 0.79
0.64
0.64
0.44
0.25
0.25 0.15
0.12
Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
Jun
Jul
Aug
Sep
Oct
0.10
0.12
Nov
Dec
Source: Case-Shiller
49-Year Average vs. 2023 Price Movement Month-Over-Month, 1973–2022 and 2023 (Not Seasonally Adjusted)
49-Year Average 2023
1.5 1.3
1.2 0.86
0.88
0.79
0.9
0.64 0.30 0.10
0.64 0.6 0.44 0.4 0.25
0.2
0.3 0.15
0.2
-0.5
Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
Jun
Jul
Aug
Sep
Oct
Source: Case-Shiller
2024 Home Price Forecasts Percent Appreciation/Depreciation as of 11/30/2023
4.1 2.8
2.7
1.5
2.2
1.9 0.7 -0.2 -1.7
Average of All 8
MBA
Fannie Mae Freddie Mac
HPES
Goldman Sachs
NAR
Zillow
Realtor.com
Home Price Expectation Survey
Fannie Mae's Home Price Expectations Survey (HPES), produced in partnership with Pulsenomics, LLC, polls over 100 housing experts across the industry and academia for forecasts of national home price percentage changes in each of the coming five calendar years.
Source: HPES
Estimated Home Price Performance December to December, as Forecast in Q4 2023
5.92%
3.67% Pre-Bubble
4.06%
Recovery To Date
Bubble
2.35%
4.15%
2.70% Bust
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
2028 Source: HPES
$72,405 $400,000
$409,400
Pre-Bubble
Potential growth in household wealth over the next 5 years based solely on increased home equity if you purchase a $400K home in January 2024
$420,454
$435,884
$453,581
$472,405
Recovery To Date
Bubble
Bust Based on price appreciation projected by the Home Price Expectation Survey 2024
2025
2026
2027
2028
2029 Source: HPES
The Year of “Fives”
‘5’ Will Be the Handle (first number) on Mortgage Rates by May 5.5 Million in Total Home Sales 5% Will Be the Approximate Home Price Appreciation Rate
Percent Change in Home Values Month-Over-Month
Case-Shiller 0.9 0.7 0.4
0.7
0.5
0.7
0.6
0.6
0.2
-0.2
FHFA 0.5
0.6
0.8
0.8
0.8 0.5
0.7
0.6 0.3
0.1
Jan '23
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
Jun
Jul
Aug
Sep
Oct
Freddie Mac: Prices Month-Over-Month Percent Change in Home Values (Seasonally Adjusted) 0.8 0.7
0.7
0.8
0.7 0.6
0.5
0.3
0.3
0.3
0.3
Jan '23
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
Jun
Jul
Aug
Sep
Oct
Nov
Source: Freddie Mac
Home price gains in the CoreLogic S&P Case-Shiller Index have increased by [about] 7% since the beginning of the year and are 1% higher than at the peak in 2022, recovering all losses recorded in the second half of 2022. - Selma Hepp, Chief Economist, CoreLogic
Percent of Annual Home Appreciation 1980–2022, Seasonally Adjusted, Rounded To Nearest Full Number 20%
15%
10%
4.92%
42-Year Average
5%
0%
-5%
Each December as compared to previous December
-10%
-15%
1980
1990
2000
2010
2022 Source: Freddie Mac
With mortgage rates dropping, demand for homes in early 2024 is likely to be strong and will again put pressure on prices, similar to trends observed in early 2023 . . . Most markets will continue to reach new home price highs over the course of 2024.
- Selma Hepp, Chief Economist, CoreLogic
Resources Slide(s)
Description
Link(s)
8
Mortgage Rate Trend Graph
https://freddiemac.gcs-web.com/node/28181/pdf
9
Dean Baker Quote
https://cepr.net/contrary-to-what-the-washington-post-tellsyou-homeownership-rates-for-young-people-are-above-thepre-pandemic-level/
10
Lawrence Yun Quote
https://www.usatoday.com/story/money/2024/01/01/housing -market-projection-real-estate-2024/72046015007/
12, 13
Mortgage Rate Spread Graph
https://www.fhfa.gov/DataTools/Downloads/Pages/NationalMortgage-Database-Aggregate-Data.aspx
Lance Lambert Quote
https://www.resiclubanalytics.com/p/lockin-effect-told-2maps?utm_source=www.resiclubanalytics.com&utm_mediu m=newsletter&utm_campaign=the-lock-in-effect-as-told-by2maps&jwt_token=eyJ0eXAiOiJKV1QiLCJhbGciOiJIUzI1NiJ 9.eyJzdWJzY3JpYmVyX2lkIjoiZTFhYmVkNWYtMjMwOC00 ZDlhLWEzY2YtMmNiNmJkNzg0YTc0IiwiZXhwIjoxNzA0MjI5 Njg4LCJpc3MiOiJodHRwczovL2FwcC5iZWVoaWl2LmNvb SIsImlhdCI6MTcwNDA1Njg4OH0.kgtTWNpT6CQaG3sypDr 0uRJAnyMH9ozLhjjxYVWTThI
14
Resources Slide(s)
Description
Link(s)
15, 16, 17
Erica Plemmons Quotes and Graph
https://brightmls.com/article/market-survey-winds-ofchange-expected-for-2024
18
Goldman Sachs Quote
https://www.gspublishing.com/content/research/en/reports/2 023/12/14/05d5d1d1-8b22-41af-917ecd5862923c9e.html?chl=em&plt=briefings&cid=1215&plc=b ody
19
50 Year Mortgage Rate Graph
https://www.freddiemac.com/pmms/pmms_archives https://www.macrotrends.net/2016/10-year-treasury-bondrate-yield-chart
21
NAHB Quote
https://www.nahb.org/news-and-economics/pressreleases/2023/12/new-home-sales-down-in-november-butshould-improve-moving-forward
23, 24
49-Year Average Monthly Price Graphs
https://www.spglobal.com/spdji/en/indices/indicators/spcorelogic-case-shiller-us-national-home-price-nsaindex/#overview
Resources Slide(s)
Description
Link(s)
25
Home Price Forecasts Graph
https://www.zillow.com/research/2024-housing-predictions33447/ https://www.realtor.com/research/2024-national-housingforecast/ https://twitter.com/NewsLambert/status/1730642488346472 787 https://www.mba.org/docs/default-source/research-andforecasts/forecasts/2023/mortgage-finance-forecast-nov2023.pdf?sfvrsn=acef26ff_1 https://pulsenomics.com/surveys/ https://www.fanniemae.com/media/49661/display https://www.freddiemac.com/research/forecast/20231220us-economy-expanded-in-2023
26
HPES Slide
https://www.fanniemae.com/research-and-insights/surveysindices/home-price-expectations-survey-hpes
27, 28
Home Price Graphs
https://pulsenomics.com/surveys/#home-price-expectations
Resources Slide(s)
Description
Link(s)
30
Home Values Percent Change Graph
https://www.spglobal.com/spdji/en/indices/indicators/spcorelogic-case-shiller-us-national-home-price-nsaindex/#news-research https://www.fhfa.gov/DataTools/Downloads/Pages/HousePrice-Index.aspx https://www.corelogic.com/category/intelligence/reports/ho me-price-insights/
31
Freddie Mac Prices Graph
https://www.freddiemac.com/research/indices/house-priceindex
32, 34
Selma Hepp Quotes
https://www.cnn.com/2023/12/26/business/us-home-pricesrecord-high-october/index.html
33
Home Appreciation Graph
https://www.freddiemac.com/research/indices/house-priceindex
Updates
Resources Slide(s)
Description
Link(s)
43
Confidence Index
https://www.nar.realtor/research-and-statistics/researchreports/realtors-confidence-index
44-46, 53, 55, 57, Existing Home Sales 63-66
https://www.nar.realtor/topics/existing-home-sales
47-49
New Home Sales
http://www.census.gov/construction/nrs/pdf/newressales.pdf http://www.census.gov/newhomesales
50
Total Home Sales
http://www.census.gov/construction/nrs/pdf/newressales.pdf https://www.nar.realtor/topics/existing-home-sales
51-52
Pending Home Sales
https://www.nar.realtor/research-and-statistics/housingstatistics/pending-home-sales
57-59
Case Shiller
https://www.spglobal.com/spdji/en/indices/indicators/spcorelogic-case-shiller-20-city-composite-home-price-nsaindex/#news-research
60
CoreLogic Price Forecast
https://www.corelogic.com/intelligence/u-s-home-priceinsights/
Resources Slide(s)
Description
Link(s)
62-68
Inventory
https://www.nar.realtor/topics/existing-home-sales http://www.census.gov/construction/nrs/pdf/newressales.pdf https://www.realtor.com/research/data/
70
Showing Activity
https://www.showingtime.com/blog/
Mortgage Rates
http://www.freddiemac.com/pmms/pmms_archives.html http://www.freddiemac.com/research/forecast/ https://www.mba.org/news-research-andresources/research-and-economics/forecasts-andcommentary
Mortgage Rate Projections
http://www.fanniemae.com/portal/researchinsights/forecast.html https://www.mba.org/news-research-andresources/research-and-economics/forecasts-andcommentary https://www.nar.realtor/research-and-statistics
78, 79
Mortgage Credit Availability
https://www.mba.org/news-research-andresources/newsroom https://www.mba.org/news-research-andresources/research-and-economics/single-familyresearch/mortgage-credit-availability-index
81-84
NE Valley of the Sun Stats
ARMLS
2, 85
Contact Us
480-229-6468, https://www.ShowScottsdaleHomes.com
72, 73, 75, 76
74
Home Sales
Jan-19 Feb Mar Apr May June July Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec Jan-20 Feb Mar Apr May June July Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec Jan-21 Feb Mar Apr May June July Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec Jan-22 Feb Mar Apr May June July Aug Sept Nov Dec Jan-23 Feb Mar Apr May June July Aug Sept Oct Nov
Average Days on the Market November 2023 49
46 44 4141
38
36 36
29
26
24 27 36 33
29 27 26 24 2222 21212121 20 18 171717171717 1818 1919 18 19
1717 16 34
3131 29
26
24 25
22 23
2020 21
1818
16
1414
Source: NAR
Existing Home Sales Since January 2014 6,800,000
6,300,000
5,800,000
5,300,000
4,800,000
4,300,000
3,800,000
Jan 2014
Jan 2015
Jan 2016
Jan 2017
Jan 2018
Jan 2019
Jan 2020
Jan 2021
Jan 2022
Jan 2023 Source: NAR
Existing Home Sales Year-Over-Year, by Region U.S.
Northeast
Midwest
South
West
-4.3%
-7.3% -8.7%
-8.6%
-13.0%
Source: NAR
Existing Home Sales In Thousands 2021
2022
January
February
2023
600
500
400
300
200
100
0
March
April
May
June
July
August
September
October
November December Source: NAR
New Home Sales Annualized in Thousands 1060
960
860
760
660
560
460
360
jun-14
Jan15
Jan16
Jan17
Jan18
Jan19
Jan20
Jan21
Jan22
Jan23 Source: Census
New Home Sales Percent of Distribution by Price Range * Less Than 500 Units or Less Than 0.5 Percent
9%
10%
11%
6%
*
*
0% Under $150K
$150-$199K
3% $200-299K
$300-$399K
$400-$499K
$500-$749K
Over $750K Source: Census
Jan-19 Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec Jan-20 Feb Mar Apr May June July Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec Jan-21 Feb Mar Apr May June July Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec Jan-22 Feb Mar Apr May June July Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec Jan-23 Feb Mar Apr May June July Aug Sept Oct Nov 1.5 1.5 1.7 1.9
1.9
2.4 2.6 2.7 2.5 2.8 2.6 2.3 2.3 2.3 2.4 2.7
2.4
2.8 2.9
3.2
3.1 2.9 2.8 2.7
2.5
3.2
3.5 3.5
3.6
3.7
3.6
3.6 3.6 3.4 3.5 3.6 3.4 3.2 3.5 3.1 3.2 3.0 3.4 3.4 3.4 3.3 3.6
3.2
4.1 4.5
4.5
4.2 4.3 4.5 4.5 4.2 4.0
5.1 4.9
New Homes Selling Fast Median Months from Completion to Sold
Source: Census
Total Home Sales In Thousands 2021
2022
2023
676 593
587
567 524
557
517 475
443 422
436 423
421
646
631
604
575
577
528 491
495 432
453
477 403
397
574
557
419 383
325
372 341
374
286
January
February
March
April
May
June
July
August
September
October
November December Source: Census
Pending Home Sales 140 130 120 110 100
100 = Historically Healthy Level 90 80 70 60January 2012
January 2013
January 2014
January 2015
January 2016
January 2017
January 2018
January 2019
January 2020
January 2021
January 2022
January 2023
Source: NAR
Pending Home Sales Year-Over-Year by Region U.S.
Northeast
Midwest
South
West
-2.2%
100 = Historically Healthy Level -4.9%
-5.2% -6.4%
-6.5%
Source: NAR
Percentage of Distressed Property Sales Distressed Sales (Foreclosures and Short Sales) Represented 1% of sales in November. 35%
30%
25%
20%
15%
10%
5%
0%
Jan 2012
4%
Jan 2013
Jan 2014
Jan 2015
Jan 2016
Jan 2017
Jan 2018
Jan 2019
Jan 2020
Jan 2021
Jan 2022
Jan 2023
Source: NAR
Home Prices
Sales Price of Existing Homes Year-Over-Year, by Region 5.3% 4.8%
4.9%
4.0%
U.S.
3.4%
Northeast
Midwest
South
West Source: NAR
% Change in Sales Year-Over-Year, by Price Range 13.4%
5.7% -2.0% -5.1%
-5.6%
-15.3%
% change in sales
$0-100K -5.1%
$100-250K -15.3%
$250-500K -5.6%
$500-750K -2.0%
$750K-1M 5.7%
$1M+ 13.4% Source: NAR
Change in Home Prices Year-Over-Year 20%
15%
10%
5%
0%
Jun 2012
Jan 2013
Jan 2014
Jan 2015
Jan 2016
Jan 2017
Jan 2018
Jan 2019
Jan 2020
Jan 2021
Jan 2022
Jan 2023
Source: S&P Case-Shiller
Change in Home Prices Year-Over-Year, 20 City Composite 20%
15%
10%
5%
0%
Source: S&P Case-Shiller
Change in Home Prices Year-Over-Year, 20 City Composite 21.1%21.2% 20.5% 18.7% 16.0%
13.1% 10.4% 8.6% 6.8% 4.6% 2.6% 1.0% Mar
Apr
May June
July
Aug
Sept
Oct
Nov
DecJan 2023Feb
1.6% 1.7% 1.5%
Mar
Apr
0.9% 0.6%
May June
July
0.4% 0.2% 0.1% Aug
Sept
Oct
Source: S&P Case-Shiller
Year-Over-Year % Change in Price US Home Price Insights – October 2023
4.7%
2.9%
Current
Forecast Source: CoreLogic
Housing Inventory
Change in Inventory
Month-Over-Month, November 2023
Source: Realtor.com
Months Inventory of Homes for Sale 2011 - Today 9.5
8.5
7.5
6.5
5.5
4.5
3.5
2.5
1.5January 2011
January 2012
January 2013
January 2014
January 2015
January 2016
January 2017
January 2018
January 2019
January 2020
January 2021
January 2022
January 2023
Source: NAR
2.7
2.6 2.6
2.6
2.5 2.5 2.6 2.6 2.4 2.4
2.3
2.3
2.1 1.7 1.6 1.7 1.9 2.2
1.9 1.9 2.0 2.1
2.0 3.6 3.5
3.3 3.3 3.4
3.2 3.2 3.2 3.3 3.3
2.9 3.0 3.1
2.9 2.9
2.9
3.1 3.0
3.3
3.7
3.9
4.0
4.0 4.0 3.9
4.2 4.3 4.3 4.2
4.6
4.5
2.5
2.5 3.8
4.0
3.0 3.1 3.1
3.0 3.8
3.5 3.6
Months Inventory of Homes for Sale Since 2019 6.0
5.5
5.0
1.5 Source: NAR
Year-Over-Year Inventory Levels 30%
20%
10%
0%
-10%
-20%
-30%
January 2014
January 2015
January 2016
January 2017
January 2018
January 2019
January 2020
January 2021
January 2022
January 2023
Source: NAR
Year-Over-Year Inventory Levels Last 12 Months
15.3%
15.3%
10.2% 5.4% 1.0% Dec
Jan-23
Feb
Mar
May
June
July
Aug
Sept
Oct
0.9% Nov
Apr
-5.7%
-6.1% -8.1%
-13.6%
-14.6%
-14.1%
Source: NAR
New Home Monthly Inventory Seasonally Adjusted, Last 13 Months
9.7
9.4
9.2 8.5
8.1
8.4
8.1 7.6
Oct
Nov
Dec
Jan 23
Feb
Mar
Apr
7.2
May
7.5
June
7.9 7.4
7.1
July
7.9
Aug
Sept
Oct
Nov
Source: Census
New Home Monthly Inventory Non-Seasonally Adjusted 2022 2023
11.4 11.3 10.9
10.7
10.4
9.7
9.5
9.2 8.8 8.4
7.9
7.6
7.6 6.9
7.9
7.6
7.5
7
7.2
6.3 5.6
Jan
5.9 5.5
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
June
July
Aug
Sept
Oct
Nov
Dec Source: Census
Buyer Demand
Home Showings Declined Compared to August Numbers, but Still Remain Above Pre-Pandemic Levels Year-Over-Year Increase in Showing Activity, September 2023
Michael Lane, Vice President & General Manager, Showing Time “Buyers and sellers remain active in every economic environment, including when mortgage rates are high. . . . Buyers determined to find a home they love will continue visiting homes with their agents, and as we mentioned previously, some sellers are reducing prices, which presents an opportunity for those buyers.” 9.1%
9.7%
5.5% 3.3% 0.7% U.S.
Northeast
Midwest
South
West Source: ShowingTime
Mortgage Rates
2.0 1/4/2018 2/1/2018 3/1/2018 3/29/2018 4/26/2018 5/24/2018 6/21/2018 7/19/2018 8/16/2018 9/13/2018 10/11/2018 11/8/2018 12/6/2018 1/3/2019 1/31/2019 2/28/2019 3/28/2019 4/25/2019 5/23/2019 6/20/2019 7/18/2019 8/15/2019 9/12/2019 10/10/2019 11/7/2019 12/5/2019 1/2/2020 1/30/2020 2/27/2020 3/26/2020 4/23/2020 5/21/2020 6/18/2020 7/16/2020 8/13/2020 9/10/2020 10/8/2020 11/5/2020 12/3/2020 12/31/2020 1/28/2021 2/25/2021 3/25/2021 4/22/2021 5/20/2021 6/17/2021 7/15/2021 8/12/2021 9/9/2021 10/7/2021 11/4/2021 12/2/2021 12/30/2021 1/27/2022 2/24/2022 3/24/2022 4/21/2022 5/19/2022 6/16/2022 7/14/2022 8/11/2022 9/8/2022 10/6/2022 11/3/2022 12/1/2022 12/29/2022 1/26/2023 2/23/2023 3/23/2023 4/20/2023 5/18/2023 6/15/2023 7/13/2023 8/10/2023 9/7/2023 10/5/2023 11/02/2023 11/30/2023 12/28/2023
Mortgage Rates 30-Year Fixed Rate, January 2018–Today 6.61%
8.0
7.5
7.0
6.5
6.0
5.5
5.0
4.5
4.0
3.5
3.0
2.5
Source: Freddie Mac
Mortgage Rates 30-Year Fixed Rate, January 2016–Today 8.0
6.61%
7.5 7.0 6.5 6.0 5.5 5.0 4.5 4.0 3.5 3.0 2.5 2.0
Source: Freddie Mac
Mortgage Rate Projections January 2023
Quarter
Fannie Mae
MBA
NAR
Average of All Three
2023 Q4
7.40%
7.40%
7.80%
7.53%
2024 Q1
7.00%
7.00%
7.50%
7.17%
2024 Q2
6.80%
6.60%
6.90%
6.77%
2024 Q3
6.60%
6.30%
6.50%
6.47%
2.0 2019 1/31 3/7 4/4 5/2 6/6 7/3 8/1 9/5 10/3 11/7 12/5 2020 2/6 3/5 4/2 5/7 6/4 7/2 8/6 9/3 10/1 11/5 12/3 2021 2/4 3/4 4/1 5/6 6/3 7/1 8/5 9/2 10/7 11/4 12/2 2022 2/3 3/3 4/7 5/5 6/2 7/7 8/4 9/1 10/6 11/3 12/1 1/5 2/2 3/2 4/6 5/4 6/1 7/6 8/3 9/7 10/5 11/9 12/7
Mortgage Rates 30-Year Fixed Rate 8.0
7.0
7.5 7.1 6.6
6.0
4.0
2023 Q4 2024 Q1 2024 Q2
6.3
5.0
Where Are They Going?
3.0
January 2019 – Today Actual Interest Rates
2024 Q3
Source: Freddie Mac, MBA
Mortgage Rates 30-Year Fixed Rate
- Actual - Projected
7.5
2023
7 6.5 6
2024
5.5 5
2019
4.5 4
2022
2018
2020
3.5
2021
3 2.5 Rate
2018 2018 2018 2018 2019 2019 2019 2019 2020 2020 2020 2020 2021 2021 2021 2021 2022 2022 2022 2022 2023 2023 2023 2023 2024 2024 2024 2024 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 4.3
4.5
4.6
4.8
4.4
4
3.7
3.7
3.5
3.2
3.0
2.8
2.9
3.0
2.9
3.1
3.9
5.3
5.7
6.6
6.4
6.5
7.0
7.4
7
6.6
6.3
6.1
Source: MBA
Mortgage Credit Availability
Mortgage Credit Availability Index (MCAI) November 2023 190 180 170 160 150 140 130 120 110 100 90
Apr 2013
Jan 2014
Jan 2015
Jan 2016
Jan 2017
Jan 2018
Jan 2019
Jan 2020
Jan 2021
Jan 2022
Jan 2023 Source: MBA
Lending Standards Still Under Control Historic Data for the Mortgage Credit Availability Index (MCAI) 900
Housing Bubble: 868.7
800
700
600
500
400
300
200
96.5 100
0
June 2004
June 2006
June 2008
June 2010
June 2012
June 2014
June 2016
June 2018
June 2020
June 2022
November 2023
Source: MBA
Housing Market Statistics for Northeast Valley Single Family Homes in Carefree, Cave Creek, Fort McDowell, Fountain Hills, Paradise Valley, Rio Verde and Scottsdale, Arizona
Average Price per Sq Ft
for Sold Northeast Valley Single Family Homes
Source: ARMLS
Average Days on Market
for Sold Northeast Valley Single Family Homes
Source: ARMLS
Number of Active Listings for Northeast Valley Single Family Homes
Source: ARMLS
Average Price per Sq Ft
for Active Northeast Valley Single Family Listings
Source: ARMLS
CONTACT US TO DISCUSS YOUR LOCAL ARIZONA REAL ESTATE MARKET
Peter Shambreskis, REALTOR®, ABR, CRS, GRI, SFR 480-229-6468 Corinne Howard, REALTOR®, ePRO, GRI, SFR, SRS 480-229-6467 info@ShambreskisAndHoward.com www.ShowScottsdaleHomes.com