KCM and DPR Realty January 2023 National and Local AZ Housing Market Update, Shambreskis and Howard

Page 1

January 2023 DPR Realty

The current change in Supply & Demand works in favor of the Educated Agent

Mortgage Rates

Source: Freddie Mac The 30-Year Fixed Rate Doubled Last Year Freddie Mac 30-Year Fixed Rate: January – December 2022 3.45 3.56 3.55 3.55 3.69 3.92 3.89 3.76 3.85 4.16 4.42 4.67 4.72 5.00 5.11 5.10 5.27 5.30 5.25 5.10 5.09 5.23 5.78 5.81 5.70 5.30 5.51 5.54 5.30 4.99 5.22 5.13 5.55 5.66 5.89 6.02 6.29 6.7 6.66 6.92 6.94 7.08 6.95 7.08 6.61 6.58 6.49 6.33 6.31 6.27 1/6 2/3 3/3 3/31 4/28 5/26 6/23 7/21 8/18 9/15 10/13 11/10 12/08 6.42 3.22 12/29
For 50 Years the 30-Year Mortgage
in Unison with the 10-Year Treasury Yield 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 1972 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 10-Year Treasury Yield 30-Year Fixed Mortgage Rate Average Spread: 1.7
Source: Freddie Mac, Macrotrends
Rate Has Moved
3.49 3.69 3.69 1.79 2.79 1.79 2000-2021 Today Today if Normal Spread Spread (Difference Between the Mortgage Rate and the 10-Year Yield) 10-Year Treasury Yield Source: Freddie Mac and CNBC Why Are Mortgage Rates Not 5.5%? The Increase in the Spread Above the 10-Year Yield is Now Dramatic 5.28% Mortgage Rate 6.48% Mortgage Rate 5.48% Mortgage Rate

The Panic Is Starting To Subside

Source:
CNBC
Freddie Mac and
Feb March April May June July Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec
2022 Spread Between the 10-Year Treasury Yield and Mortgage Rates 1.4 1.6 1.8 2 2.2 2.4 2.6 2.8 3 3.2 Jan
50-Year Average

The Panic Is Starting To Subside

Source:
CNBC
Freddie Mac and
2
Jan Feb March April May June July Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec
2022 Spread Between the 10-Year Treasury Yield and Mortgage Rates 1.4 1.6 1.8
2.2 2.4 2.6 2.8 3 3.2
50-Year Average Still a 1% Difference

Confident

Confused

The upcoming months should see a return of buyers, as mortgage rates appear to have already peaked and have been coming down since mid-November.

So be advised…this may be the one and only window for the next few years to get into a buyers market. And remember…as the Federal Reserve data shows…home prices only go up and always recover from recessions no matter how mild or severe.

Long term homeowners should view this market…right now…as a unique buying opportunity.

Home Price Update

Price Forecasts
by Source 0.1% 5.4% 2.6% 0.3% -0.2% -0.6% -1.5% -5.1% -6.0% -4.0% -2.0% 0.0% 2.0% 4.0% 6.0% Average of All 7 Forecasts Realtor.com HPES NAR Zelman Latest Forecasts from Each Entity Fannie Mae Freddie Mac MBA
Home
for 2023
Source: Nick Timiraos, WSJ Home Appreciation Pre- and Post-Pandemic % Appreciation Before Pandemic Compared to After 12% 38% 9/2017 - 3/2020 3/2020 - 9/2022

Share of Homes Having Their Prices Reduced

Source: realtor.com
-0.8 -0.6 -0.4 -0.2 0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1 1.2 Jan-21 Feb Mar Apr May June July Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec Jan-22 Feb Mar Apr May June July Aug Sept Oct Nov
% of Homes with Price Reduced, Year-Over-Year

Have Home Values Hit Bottom?

2022 MOM % Change in Home Values for 4 Different Indices

Case Shiller

1.1 1.7 2.6 2.1 1.5 0.6 -0.3 -1.1 -1 -0.5

Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun

Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

Jul Aug Nov Dec

1.6 1.9 1.5 1.6 1.2 0.1 -0.6 -0.7 0.1 0

Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Sept Oct

Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

1.3 2.3 2.7 2.5 1.5 0.2 -1.1 -1 -0.5 -0.4

Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun

Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

1.4 2.2 3.3 2.6 1.8 0.6 -0.3 -0.7 -0.5 -0.1

Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun

CoreLogic
Sources: Case Shiller, FHFA, Black Knight,
FHFA Black Knight CoreLogic

WE MUST CONTROL THE NARRATIVE

2023 Over 11,000 Houses Sell Every Day 4,090,000 divided by 365 = 11,205
8 Houses Sell Every Minute 11,205 divided by 24 = 467 every hour 467 divided by 60 = 7.8 every minute
Alternate Means of Financing Adjustable-Rate Mortgages Buying Down the Rate
Suggest

The risks of ARMs were substantially mitigated by the regulatory reforms put in place after the 2008 bust. Today’s ARMs are not the risky products of 2008 or even the prebubble version . . . ARMs are no longer something to fear – in fact, they could help borrowers save money and reduce barriers to homeownership.

Temporary rate buydowns are a hot trend for mortgages as borrowers face higher costs for home loans. Some buyers are exploring alternatives to traditional mortgages in a period of rising interest rates that is expected to continue into 2023. . . Buydowns . . . are a less costly alternative to traditional fixed-rate mortgages.

The Biggest Opportunity RIGHT NOW

751,544

Source: realtor.com
Active Listings the Past Two Years 445,784 2021 2022
Last 12 Months, Year-Over-Year Source: realtor.com
Listing
-6% -9% -9% -10% -14% -17% -21% -22% -24% -30% -36% Jan 2022 Feb Mar Apr May June July Aug Sept Oct Nov
2022 Pending
Count

THE TURN

https://freddiemac.gcs-web.com/node/26491/pdf http://www.freddiemac.com/pmms/

https://www.freddiemac.com/pmms/pmms_archives https://www.macrotrends.net/2016/10-year-treasury-bondrate-yield-chart

https://www.cnbc.com/quotes/US10Y https://www.freddiemac.com/home

https://twitter.com/NAR_Research/status/15979709682987 82720

https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/reminder-home-pricesalways-rise-over-time-david-h-stevens-cmb/

Resources Slide(s) Description Link(s) 4 Mortgage Rates Graph
5 Rates & 10-Year Treasury Over Time Graph
6-8 Current Rates & 10-Year Treasury Graphs
10 Yun Quote
11 Stevens Quote

https://news.move.com/2022-11-30-Realtor-com-RHousing-Forecast-Homebuying-Costs-Arent-Coming-Downin-2023

https://pulsenomics.com/surveys/#home-price-expectations

https://cdn.nar.realtor/sites/default/files/documents/forecastq1-2023-us-economic-outlook-12-13-2022

https://www.freddiemac.com/research/forecast/20221021quarterly-forecast-rapidly-rising-rates-declining-demanddriving-housing-market

https://www.mba.org/docs/default-source/research-andforecasts/forecasts/mortgage-finance-forecast-dec-2022.pdf https://www.fanniemae.com/media/45801/display https://www.zelmanassociates.com/ (subscription)

https://twitter.com/NickTimiraos/status/15976068303347793 93

https://www.realtor.com/research/data/

Resources Slide(s) Description Link(s) 13 Home Price Forecasts Graph
14 Pre- and Post-Pandemic Appreciation Graph
15 Price Reductions Graph

https://www.spglobal.com/spdji/en/indices/indicators/spcorelogic-case-shiller-us-national-home-price-nsaindex/#news-research

https://www.fhfa.gov/DataTools/Downloads/Pages/HousePrice-Index.aspx

https://www.blackknightinc.com/data-reports/ https://www.corelogic.com/intelligence/u-s-home-priceinsights-december-2022/

https://www.urban.org/urban-wire/should-borrowers-beafraid-adjustable-rate-mortgages

https://www.realestatenews.com/2022/12/12/buydownscan-help-buyers-struggling-with-high-interest-rates

https://www.realtor.com/research/data/

https://www.realtor.com/research/data/

Resources Slide(s) Description Link(s) 16 2022 Home Values Graphs
21 Goodman and Kaul Quote
22 Hersey Quote
24 Active Listings Graph
25 2022 Pending Listing Graph
Updates

https://www.nar.realtor/research-and-statistics/researchreports/realtors-confidence-index

https://www.nar.realtor/topics/existing-home-sales

http://www.census.gov/construction/nrs/pdf/newressales.pdf http://www.census.gov/newhomesales

http://www.census.gov/construction/nrs/pdf/newressales.pdf https://www.nar.realtor/topics/existing-home-sales

https://www.nar.realtor/research-and-statistics/housingstatistics/pending-home-sales

https://www.spglobal.com/spdji/en/indices/indicators/spcorelogic-case-shiller-20-city-composite-home-price-nsaindex/#news-research

https://www.corelogic.com/intelligence/u-s-home-priceinsights/

Resources Slide(s) Description Link(s) 34 Confidence Index
35-37, 45, 47, 48, 55-59 Existing Home Sales
38-41 New Home Sales
42 Total Home Sales
43, 44 Pending Home Sales
49-51 Case Shiller
52 CoreLogic Price Forecast

Link(s)

https://www.nar.realtor/topics/existing-home-sales http://www.census.gov/construction/nrs/pdf/newressales.pdf https://www.realtor.com/research/data/

https://www.showingtime.com/blog/november-2022showing-index-results/

http://www.freddiemac.com/pmms/pmms_archives.html http://www.freddiemac.com/research/forecast/

http://www.freddiemac.com/research/forecast/ http://www.fanniemae.com/portal/researchinsights/forecast.html https://www.mba.org/news-research-andresources/research-and-economics/forecasts-andcommentary https://www.nar.realtor/research-and-statistics

https://www.mba.org/news-research-andresources/newsroom https://www.mba.org/news-research-andresources/research-and-economics/single-familyresearch/mortgage-credit-availability-index

Resources
Description
54-61 Inventory
Slide(s)
63
Showing Activity
65, 66, 68, 69 Mortgage Rates
67 Mortgage Rate
Projections
71, 72 Mortgage Credit Availability

Home Sales

46 49 44 36 24 26 27 29 31 31 36 38 41 41 36 29 27 26 24 22 22 21 21 21 21 20 18 17 17 17 17 17 17 18 18 19 19 18 17 17 16 14 14 16 19 24 Jan-19 Feb Mar Apr May June July Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec Jan-20 Feb Mar Apr May June July Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec Jan-21 Feb Mar Apr May June July Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec Jan-22 Feb Mar Apr May June July Aug Sept Nov Source: NAR Average Days
Market November
on the
2022

Existing Home Sales

January 2014

6,800,000

6,300,000

5,800,000

4,800,000

4,300,000

5,300,000 Jan 2014 Jan 2015 Jan 2016 Jan 2017 Jan 2018 Jan 2019 Jan 2020 Jan 2021 Jan 2022

Source: NAR
Since
3,800,000
Source: NAR
Home Sales Year-Over-Year, by Region -35.4% -28.4% -30.6% -35.0% -45.7% U.S. Northeast Midwest South West
Existing
Source: NAR
Home Sales In Thousands 0 100 200 300 400 500 600 January February March April May June July August September October November December 2020 2021 2022
Existing
Source: Census New Home Sales In Thousands 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 January February March April May June July August September October November December 2020 2021 2022
Source: Census
Home Sales Annualized in Thousands 360 460 560 660 760 860 960 1060 jun-14 Jan-15 Jan-16 Jan-17 Jan-18 Jan-19 Jan-20 Jan-21 Jan-22
New
0% 3% 14% 10% 11% 8% Under $150K $150-$199K $200-299K $300-$399K $400-$499K $500-$749K Over $750K Source: Census New Home Sales Percent of Distribution by Price Range * Less Than 500 Units or Less Than 0.5 Percent * *
Source: Census New Homes Selling Fast Median Months from Completion to Sold 3.4 3.4 3.4 3.3 3.6 4.2 4.3 4.5 4.5 4.2 4.0 3.6 3.2 3.7 5.1 4.9 4.5 4.1 4.5 3.6 3.1 2.5 2.9 3.2 2.8 2.7 3.5 3.5 2.8 2.9 2.4 1.9 1.5 1.5 1.9
Source: Census Total Home Sales In Thousands 443 436 567 587 593 676 646 631 604 577 557 574 422 423 524 517 557 575 495 528 477 419 372 January February March April May June July August September October November December 2021 2022
Source: NAR
Sales 60 70 80 90 100 110 120 130 140 January 2012 January 2013 January 2014 January 2015 January 2016 January 2017 January 2018 January 2019 January 2020 January 2021 January 2022 100 = Historically Healthy Level
Pending Home
Source: NAR
Home Sales Year-Over-Year by Region 100 = Historically Healthy Level -37.8% -34.9% -31.6% -38.5% -45.7% U.S. Northeast Midwest South West
Pending

Percentage of Distressed Property Sales

Source: NAR
0% 5% 10%
Jan 2012 Jan 2013 Jan 2014 Jan 2015 Jan 2016 Jan 2017 Jan 2018 Jan 2019 Jan 2020 Jan 2021 Jan 2022 4%
Distressed Sales (Foreclosures and Short Sales) represented 2% of Sales in November.
15% 20% 25% 30% 35%

Home Prices

3.5% 3.5% 3.9% 4.4% 2.0% U.S. Northeast Midwest South West Source: NAR Sales Price of Existing Homes Year-Over-Year, by Region
Source: NAR % Change in Sales Year-Over-Year, by Price Range $0-100K $100-250K $250-500K $500-750K $750K-1M $1M+ % -27.4% -37.1% -33.6% -32.0% -34.7% -41.2% -27.4% -37.1% -33.6% -32.0% -34.7% -41.2%

Change in Home Prices Year-Over-Year

Source: S&P Case-Shiller
0% 5% 10% 15% 20% Jun 2012 Jan 2013 Jan 2014 Jan 2015 Jan 2016 Jan 2017 Jan 2018 Jan 2019 Jan 2020 Jan 2021 Jan 2022

in

Source: S&P Case-Shiller Jan 2014 Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec Jan 2015 Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec Jan 2016 Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec Jan 2017 Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec Jan 2018 Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec Jan 2019 Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec Jan 2020 Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec Jan 2021 Feb Mar Apr May June July Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec Jan 2022 Feb Mar Apr May June July Aug Sept Oct
Change
Home Prices Year-Over-Year, 20 City Composite
Source: S&P Case-Shiller Change in Home Prices Year-Over-Year, 20 City Composite 18.5% 18.3% 18.6% 18.9% 20.3% 21.1% 21.2% 20.5% 18.7% 16.0% 13.1% 10.4% 8.6% Oct Nov Dec Jan 2022 Feb Mar Apr May June July Aug Sept Oct

Year-Over-Year % Change in Price

Source: CoreLogic
8.6% 2.8% Current Forecast
December 2022

Housing Inventory

Change in Inventory

Month-Over-Month, November 2022

Source: realtor.com

Months Inventory of Homes for Sale

Source: NAR
2011 - Today 1.5 2.5 3.5 4.5 5.5 6.5 7.5 8.5 9.5 January 2011 January 2012 January 2013 January 2014 January 2015 January 2016 January 2017 January 2018 January 2019 January 2020 January 2021 January 2022
Source: NAR
Inventory of Homes for Sale Since 2020 3.1 3.1 3.3 4.0 4.6 3.9 3.1 3.0 2.7 2.5 2.3 1.9 1.9 2.0 2.1 2.3 2.5 2.5 2.6 2.6 2.4 2.4 2.1 1.7 1.6 1.7 1.9 2.2 2.6 2.9 3.2 3.2 3.1 3.3 3.3 1.5 2.0 2.5 3.0 3.5 4.0 4.5 5.0 5.5 6.0 Jan-20 Feb Mar Apr May June July Aug sept Oct Nov Dec Jan-21 Feb Mar Apr May June July Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec Jan-22 Feb Mar Apr May June July Aug Sept Oct Nov
Months
Source: NAR
Last 12 Months 1.7 1.6 1.7 1.9 2.2 2.6 2.9 3.2 3.2 3.1 3.3 3.3 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 Dec 22-Jan Feb Mar Apr May June July Aug Sept Oct Nov
Months Inventory of Homes for Sale

Year-Over-Year Inventory Levels

Source: NAR
-30% -25% -20%
5% 10% January 2018 January 2019 January 2020 January 2021 January 2022 % -9. -8. -7. -6. -6. 0.5 0.0 2.7 1.1 2.8 4.2 6.2 4.6 2.9 2.4 1.7 2.7 0.0 -1. -2. -2. -4. -5. -9. -11 -9. -10 -19 -18 -18 -21 -18 -19 -19 -22 -23 -25 -29 -28 -20 -20 -18 -14 -13 -12 -9. -13 -18 -17 -15 -9. -10 -4. 2.4 0.0 0.0 -0. -0. 2.7
-15% -10% -5% 0%

Year-Over-Year Inventory Levels

Source: NAR
Last 12 Months -12.8% -9.8% -13.3% -18.0% -17.9% -15.5% -9.5% -10.4% -4.1% 2.4% 0.0%
-0.8% -0.8% 2.7% Sept Oct Nov Dec Jan 2022 Feb Mar Apr May June July August Nov July Aug Sept June Oct Nov
0.0%
Source: Census New Home Monthly Inventory Seasonally Adjusted, Last 12 Months 6.2 5.6 5.7 6.0 7.0 8.4 8.3 9.4 10.1 8.3 9.4 8.9 Nov Dec Jan 22 Feb Mar Apr May June Jul Aug Sept Oct
Source: Census New Home Monthly Inventory Non-Seasonally Adjusted 3.9 4.4 3.7 4.3 5.0 5.8 5.9 6.9 6.5 7.6 7.3 6.4 5.7 6 7 8.4 8.3 9.4 10.1 8.5 9.9 9.3 8.6 Jan Feb Mar Apr May June July Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec 2021 2022

Buyer Demand

Showing Traffic Dips Again

Year-Over-Year Increase in Showing Activity, November 2022

Showing Time

“Mortgage affordability remains a major challenge for home buyers, who aren’t getting out there to look at homes in the numbers we saw at this time last year and the year before. Heading into the spring shopping season, we’ll expect to see new listings hit the market and more buyers venturing out and facing less competition than they have been.”

Source: ShowingTime
-30.2% -24.2% -25.4% -37.9% -55.4% U.S. Northeast Midwest South West

Mortgage Rates

2.0 2.5 3.0 3.5
7.0 7.5 8.0 Source: Freddie Mac
4.0 4.5 5.0 5.5 6.0 6.5
Mortgage Rates 30-Year Fixed Rate, January 2018–Today 6.42%
2.0 2.5 3.0 3.5 4.0 4.5 5.0 5.5 6.0 6.5 7.0 7.5 8.0 1/7/16 2/4 3/3 4/7 5/5 6/2 7/7 8/4 9/1 10/6 11/3 12/1 1/5/2017 2/2 3/2 3/30 4/27 5/25 6/22 7/20 8/17 9/14 10/12 11/9 12/7 1/4/2018 2/1 3/1 4/5 5/4 6/7 7/5 8/2 9/6 10/4 11/1 12/6 1/3/2019 1/31 3/7 4/4 5/2 6/6 7/3 8/1 9/5 10/3 11/7 12/5 1/2/2020 2/6 3/5 4/2 5/7 6/4 7/2 8/6 9/3 10/1 11/5 12/3 1/7/2021 2/4 3/4 4/1 5/6 6/3 7/1 8/5 9/2 10/7 11/4 12/2 1/6/2022 2/3 3/3 4/7 5/5 6/2 7/7 8/4 9/1 10/6 11/3 12/1 12/29 Source: Freddie Mac Mortgage Rates 30-Year Fixed Rate, January 2016–Today 6.42%
Mortgage Rate Projections January 2023 Quarter Freddie Mac Fannie Mae MBA NAR Average of All Four 2023 Q1 6.60% 6.50% 6.20% 6.10% 6.35% 2023 Q2 6.50% 6.40% 5.60% 5.70% 6.05% 2023 Q3 6.40% 6.20% 5.40% 5.60% 5.90% 2023 Q4 6.20% 6.00% 5.20% 5.50% 5.73%
2.0 3.0 4.0 5.0 6.0 7.0 8.0 2019 1/31 3/7 4/4 5/2 6/6 7/3 8/1 9/5 10/3 11/7 12/5 2020 2/6 3/5 4/2 5/7 6/4 7/2 8/6 9/3 10/1 11/5 12/3 2021 2/4 3/4 4/1 5/6 6/3 7/1 8/5 9/2 10/7 11/4 12/2 2022 2/3 3/3 4/7 5/5 6/2 7/7 8/4 9/1 10/6 11/3 12/1 12/29 6.6 6.5 6.4 6.2 2023 Q1 2023 Q2 2023 Q3 2023 Q4 Source: Freddie Mac Mortgage Rates 30-Year Fixed Rate January 2019 – Today Actual Interest Rates Where Are They Going?

Mortgage Rates

Source: Freddie Mac
Actual
Projected
2023
30-Year Fixed Rate 2016 Q1 2016 Q2 2016 Q3 2016 Q4 2017 Q1 2017 Q2 2017 Q3 2017 Q4 2018 Q1 2018 Q2 2018 Q3 2018 Q4 2019 Q1 2019 Q2 2019 Q3 2019 Q4 2020 Q1 2020 Q2 2020 Q3 2020 Q4 2021 Q1 2021 Q2 2021 Q3 2021 Q4 2022 Q1 2022 Q2 2022 Q3 2022 Q4 2023 Q1 2023 Q2 2023 Q3 2023 Q4 Rate 3.7 3.6 3.5 3.8 4.2 4.0 3.9 3.9 4.3 4.5 4.6 4.8 4.4 4 3.7 3.7 3.5 3.2 3.0 2.8 2.9 3.0 2.9 3.1 3.8 5.3 5.6 6.8 6.6 6.5 6.4 6.2 2.5 3 3.5 4 4.5 5 5.5 6 6.5 7 7.5 -
-
2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021
2022

Mortgage Credit Availability

Mortgage Credit Availability Index (MCAI)

Source: MBA
November 2022 100 110 120 130 140 150 160 170 180 190 Apr 2013 Jan 2014 Jan 2015 Jan 2016 Jan 2017 Jan 2018 Jan 2019 Jan 2020 Jan 2021 Jan 2022

Lending Standards Still Under Control

Data

Source: MBA
Historic
for the Mortgage Credit Availability Index (MCAI) 0 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 800 900 June 2004 June 2005 June 2006 June 2007 June 2008 June 2009 June 2010 June 2011 June 2012 June 2013 June 2014 June 2015 June 2016 June 2017 June 2018 June 2019 June 2020 June 2021 June 2022 Nov 2022 Housing Bubble: 868.7 103.4

Housing Market Statistics for Northeast Valley

Single Family Homes in Carefree, Cave Creek, Fort McDowell, Fountain
Paradise Valley, Rio Verde and Scottsdale, Arizona
Hills,
Average Price per Sq Ft for Sold Northeast Valley Single Family Homes

Average Days on Market

for Sold Northeast
Single Family Homes
Valley

Number of Active Listings for Northeast Valley Single Family Homes

Average Price per Sq Ft for Active Northeast Valley Single Family Listings
Peter Shambreskis, REALTOR®, ABR, CRS, GRI, SFR 480-229-6468 Corinne Howard, REALTOR®, ePRO, GRI, SFR, SRS 480-229-6467 info@ShambreskisAndHoward.com www.ShowScottsdaleHomes.com CONTACT US TO DISCUSS YOUR LOCAL ARIZONA REAL ESTATE MARKET

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