KCM and DPR Realty February 2023 National and Local AZ Housing Market Update, Shambreskis and Howard

Page 1

February 2023 DPR Realty

“People do not follow the best leaders. They follow the ones they can understand the easiest.”
- Donald Miller

Mortgage Rates Trending Downward

Freddie Mac 30-Year Fixed Rate, November 2022 – Today

Source: Freddie Mac
7.08 6.61 6.58 6.49 6.33 6.31 6.27 6.42 6.48 6.33 6.15 11/10 12/08 1/5/2023 2/2 6.13 2/2
6.09%

worked through the 5

of grief of higher mortgage rates.

I wonder if some consumers have
stages
Source: KCM Analysis, Mortgage News Daily
Mortgage News Daily Rate Index: 30-Year Fixed Rate 5.5 6 6.5 7 7.5 1/3 1/4 1/5 1/6 1/9 1/10 1/11 1/12 1/13 1/16 1/17 1/18 1/19 1/20 1/23 1/24 1/25 1/26 1/27 1/30 1/31 2/1 2/2 2/3 Good Buyer Demand Limited Buyer Demand Weak Buyer Demand Strong Buyer Demand
2023 30-Year Fixed Rate

New Listings Now Below Previous Years

Source: realtor.com
New Monthly Listing Counts (in Thousands) 200 250 300 350 400 450 500 550 600 650 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022

New Listings Now Below Previous Years

Source: realtor.com
New Monthly Listing Counts (in Thousands) 200 250 300 350 400 450 500 550 600 650 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 December 2022 239K -21.0% Y-O-Y

New Listings Now Below Previous Years

Since January 2017, Last 7 Januarys

Source: realtor.com
422,184 413,608 436,098 420,948 392,732 336,416 318,096 January 2017 January 2018 January 2019 January 2020 January 2021 January 2022 January 2023

I'm looking at the latest housing data and I see surprising demand indicators, including home price resiliency and supply staying restricted. Who woulda guessed that?

THE TURN

Big Banks Beginning To Revise Forecasts?

Goldman Sachs Dramatically Changes Home Price Forecast for 2023

January 10, 2023

January 24, 2023

-2.6%

-6.1%

Lance Lambert

Source:

Have Home Values Hit Bottom?

2022 MOM % Change in Home Values for 4 Different Indices

Source: Case Shiller, FHFA, Black Knight, CoreLogic
1.1 1.7 2.6 2.1 1.5 0.6 -0.3 -1.1 -1 -0.5 -0.6 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec 1.6 1.9 1.5 1.6 1.2 0.1 -0.6 -0.7 0.1 0 -0.1 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Sept Oct Jul Aug Nov Dec 1.3 2.3 2.7 2.5 1.5 0.2 -1.1 -1 -0.5 -0.4 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec 1.4 2.2 3.3 2.6 1.8 0.6 -0.3 -0.7 -0.5 -0.1 -0.2 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec Case Shiller FHFA Black Knight CoreLogic

Headlines Do More To Terrify than Clarify

67% of Americans say a housing market crash is imminent in the next 3 years. Source: NerdWallet

ATTOM, a leading curator of real estate data nationwide for land and property data, today released its Year-End 2022 U.S. Foreclosure Market Report, which shows foreclosure filings— default notices, scheduled auctions and bank repossessions — were reported on 324,237 U.S. properties in 2022, up 115% from 2021 but down 34% from 2019, before the pandemic shook up the market. Foreclosure filings in 2022 were also down 89% from a peak of nearly 2.9 million in 2010.

- ATTOM

U.S. Foreclosure Activity Doubles Annually, But Still Below Pre-Pandemic Levels

U.S. Properties with Foreclosure Filings

Source: ATTOM
533K 718K 1.3M 2.3M 2.8M 2.9M 1.9M 1.8M 1.4M 1.1M 1.1M 933K 677K 624K 493K 214K 151K 324K 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 Over 1 Million

1M Fewer Foreclosures Over the Last 3 Years

U.S. Properties with Foreclosure Filings

Source: ATTOM
676,535 624,753 493,066 214,323 151,153 324,273 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 Short 161,26 0 Foreclosu res Short 383,795 Foreclosures Short 446,965 Foreclosures Short 273,845 Foreclosures 598,118 (Average: 2017 – 2019)

Eighteen months after the end of the government’s foreclosure moratorium, and with less than five percent of the 8.4 million borrowers who entered the CARES Act forbearance program remaining, foreclosure activity remains significantly lower than it was prior to the COVID-19 pandemic. It seems clear that government and mortgage industry efforts during the pandemic, coupled with a strong economy, have helped prevent millions of unnecessary foreclosures.

The bottom line is there will be an increase in foreclosures over the next year (from record low levels), but there will not be a huge wave of distressed sales as happened following the housing bubble. The distressed sales during the housing bust led to cascading price declines, and that will not happen this time.

WE MUST CONTROL THE

NARRATIVE

Resources Slide(s) Description Link(s) 2 Miller Quote https://storybrand.com/ 3 Mortgage Rates Trends https://freddiemac.gcs-web.com/node/26656/pdf http://www.freddiemac.com/pmms/ 4 Wolf Quote https://twitter.com/AliWolfEcon/status/16168949837092986 88 5 30-Year Fixed Rate Graph https://www.mortgagenewsdaily.com/mortgage-rates 6-8 New Listings Graphs https://www.realtor.com/research/data/ 9 Simonsen Quote https://twitter.com/mikesimonsen/status/161761987896555 5202 11 Goldman Sachs Forecast https://twitter.com/NewsLambert/status/1617960706955182 080

https://www.spglobal.com/spdji/en/indices/indicators/spcorelogic-case-shiller-us-national-home-price-nsaindex/#news-research

https://www.fhfa.gov/AboutUs/Reports/ReportDocuments/F HFA-HPI-Monthly-1312023.pdf

https://www.blackknightinc.com/data-reports/

https://www.corelogic.com/intelligence/u-s-home-priceinsights-january-2023/

https://www.nerdwallet.com/article/mortgages/2023-homebuyer-report

https://www.mpamag.com/us/mortgage-industry/marketupdates/us-foreclosure-filings-surged-115-in-2022/432815

https://www.nationalmortgagenews.com/news/foreclosuresfilings-rose-115-in-the-past-year

https://www.nbc12.com/prnewswire/2023/01/12/usforeclosure-activity-doubles-annually-still-below-prepandemic-levels/

Resources Slide(s) Description Link(s) 12 2022 Home Values
14 NerdWallet Survey
15 Headlines

https://www.attomdata.com/news/markettrends/foreclosures/attom-year-end-2022-u-s-foreclosuremarket-report/

https://www.attomdata.com/news/markettrends/foreclosures/attom-year-end-2022-u-s-foreclosuremarket-report/

https://www.attomdata.com/news/markettrends/foreclosures/attom-year-end-2022-u-s-foreclosuremarket-report/

https://calculatedrisk.substack.com/p/the-housing-bubbleand-mortgage-debt-76d

Resources Slide(s) Description Link(s) 16 ATTOM Data Quote
17 & 18 Foreclosures over Time Graphs
19 Sharga Quote
20 McBride Quote

Updates

https://www.nar.realtor/research-and-statistics/researchreports/realtors-confidence-index

http://www.census.gov/newhomesales

http://www.census.gov/construction/nrs/pdf/newressales.pdf

https://www.nar.realtor/topics/existing-home-sales

https://www.nar.realtor/research-and-statistics/housingstatistics/pending-home-sales

https://www.spglobal.com/spdji/en/indices/indicators/spcorelogic-case-shiller-20-city-composite-home-price-nsaindex/#news-research

https://www.corelogic.com/intelligence/u-s-home-priceinsights/

Resources Slide(s) Description Link(s) 29 Confidence Index
30-32, 40, 42, 43, 49-54 Existing Home Sales https://www.nar.realtor/topics/existing-home-sales 33-36 New Home Sales
http://www.census.gov/construction/nrs/pdf/newressales.pdf
37 Total Home Sales
38, 39 Pending Home Sales
44-46 Case Shiller
47 CoreLogic Price Forecast

https://www.nar.realtor/topics/existing-home-sales

http://www.census.gov/construction/nrs/pdf/newressales.pdf

https://www.realtor.com/research/data/

https://www.showingtime.com/blog/december-2022showing-index-results-west-sees-small-uptick-to-end-2022/

http://www.freddiemac.com/pmms/pmms_archives.html

http://www.freddiemac.com/research/forecast/

https://www.mba.org/news-research-andresources/research-and-economics/forecasts-andcommentary

http://www.fanniemae.com/portal/researchinsights/forecast.html

https://www.mba.org/news-research-andresources/research-and-economics/forecasts-andcommentary

https://www.nar.realtor/research-and-statistics

https://www.mba.org/news-research-andresources/newsroom

https://www.mba.org/news-research-andresources/research-and-economics/single-familyresearch/mortgage-credit-availability-index

Resources Slide(s) Description Link(s) 49-56 Inventory
66 Showing Activity
60, 61, 63, 64 Mortgage Rates
62 Mortgage Rate Projections
66, 67 Mortgage Credit Availability

Home Sales

Average Days on the Market

46 49 44 36 24 26 27 29 31 31 36 38 41 41 36 29 27 26 24 22 22 21 21 21 21 20 18 17 17 17 17 17 17 18 18 19 19 18 17 17 16 14 14 16 19 24 26 Jan-19 Feb Mar Apr May June July Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec Jan-20 Feb Mar Apr May June July Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec Jan-21 Feb Mar Apr May June July Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec Jan-22 Feb Mar Apr May June July Aug Sept Nov Dec Source: NAR
December
2022

Existing Home Sales

Since January 2014

Source: NAR
3,800,000 4,300,000 4,800,000 5,300,000 5,800,000 6,300,000 6,800,000 Jan 2014 Jan 2015 Jan 2016 Jan 2017 Jan 2018 Jan 2019 Jan 2020 Jan 2021 Jan 2022

Existing Home Sales

Year-Over-Year, by Region

Source: NAR
-34.0% -28.8% -30.3% -33.1% -43.4% U.S.
South
Northeast Midwest
West

Existing Home Sales

Source: NAR
In Thousands 0 100 200 300 400 500 600 January February March April May June July August September October November December 2020 2021 2022

New Home Sales

Source: Census
In Thousands 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 January February March April May June July August September October November December 2020 2021 2022

New Home Sales

Source: Census
Annualized in Thousands 360 460 560 660 760 860 960 1060 jun-14 Jan-… Jan-… Jan-… Jan-… Jan-… Jan-… Jan-… Jan-…

New Home Sales

by

0% 10% 32% 18% 30% 9% Under $150K $150-$199K $200-299K $300-$399K $400-$499K $500-$749K Over $750K Source: Census
1%
Percent of Distribution
Price Range * Less Than 500 Units or Less Than 0.5 Percent *

New Homes Selling Fast

Median Months from Completion to Sold

Source: Census
3.2 3.6 3.6 3.4 3.5 3.6 3.4 3.2 3.5 3.1 3.2 3.0 3.4 3.4 3.4 3.3 3.6 4.2 4.3 4.5 4.5 4.2 4.0 3.6 3.2 3.7 5.1 4.9 4.5 4.1 4.5 3.6 3.1 2.5 2.9 3.2 2.8 2.7 3.5 3.5 2.8 2.9 2.4 1.9 1.5 1.5 1.8 2.0 Jan-19 Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec Jan-20 Feb Mar Apr May June July Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec Jan-21 Feb Mar Apr May June July Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec Jan-22 Feb Mar Apr May June July Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec

Total Home Sales

Source: Census
In Thousands 443 436 567 587 593 676 646 631 604 577 557 574 422 423 524 517 557 575 495 528 477 419 372 374 January February March April May June July August September October November December 2021 2022

Pending Home Sales

Source: NAR
60 70 80 90 100 110 120 130 140 January 2012 January 2013 January 2014 January 2015 January 2016 January 2017 January 2018 January 2019 January 2020 January 2021 January 2022 100 = Historically Healthy Level

Pending Home Sales

Year-Over-Year by Region

Source: NAR
100 = Historically Healthy Level -33.8% -32.5% -30.1% -34.5% -37.5% U.S. Northeast Midwest South West

Percentage of Distressed Property Sales

Distressed Sales (Foreclosures and Short Sales) represented 1% of Sales in December.

Source: NAR
0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35% Jan 2012 Jan 2013 Jan 2014 Jan 2015 Jan 2016 Jan 2017 Jan 2018 Jan 2019 Jan 2020 Jan 2021 Jan 2022 4%

Home Prices

Sales Price of Existing Homes

Year-Over-Year, by Region

2.3% 1.6% 2.9% 3.5% 0.0% U.S. Northeast Midwest South West Source: NAR

% Change in Sales

Year-Over-Year, by Price Range

Source: NAR
$0-100K $100-250K $250-500K $500-750K $750K-1M $1M+ % -28.3% -37.3% -34.3% -35.2% -38.6% -45.2% -28.3% -37.3% -34.3% -35.2% -38.6% -45.2%

Change in Home Prices

Year-Over-Year

Source: S&P Case-Shiller
0% 5% 10% 15% 20% Jun 2012 Jan 2013 Jan 2014 Jan 2015 Jan 2016 Jan 2017 Jan 2018 Jan 2019 Jan 2020 Jan 2021 Jan 2022

Change in Home Prices

Year-Over-Year, 20 City Composite

Source: S&P Case-Shiller Jan 2014 Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec Jan 2015 Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec Jan 2016 Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec Jan 2017 Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec Jan 2018 Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec Jan 2019 Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec Jan 2020 Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec Jan 2021 Feb Mar Apr May June July Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec Jan 2022 Feb Mar Apr May June July Aug Sept Oct Nov

Change in Home Prices

Year-Over-Year, 20 City Composite

Source:
Case-Shiller
S&P
18.6% 18.9% 20.3% 21.1% 21.2% 20.5% 18.7% 16.0% 13.1% 10.4% 8.6% 6.8% Dec Jan 2022 Feb Mar Apr May June July Aug Sept Oct Nov

Year-Over-Year % Change in Price

December 2022

Source: CoreLogic
6.9% 3.0%
Current Forecast

Housing Inventory

Change in Inventory

Month-Over-Month, January 2023

Source: realtor.com

Months Inventory of Homes for Sale

Source: NAR
2011 - Today 1.5 2.5 3.5 4.5 5.5 6.5 7.5 8.5 9.5 January 2011 January 2012 January 2013 January 2014 January 2015 January 2016 January 2017 January 2018 January 2019 January 2020 January 2021 January 2022

Months Inventory of Homes for Sale

Source: NAR
3.8 3.6 3.8 4.2 4.34.3 4.2 4.04.0 3.9 3.7 3.0 3.13.1 3.3 4.0 4.6 3.9 3.1 3.0 2.7 2.5 2.3 1.91.9 2.0 2.1 2.3 2.52.5 2.62.6 2.42.4 2.1 1.7 1.6 1.7 1.9 2.2 2.6 2.9 3.23.2 3.1 3.33.3 2.9 1.5 2.0 2.5 3.0 3.5 4.0 4.5 5.0 5.5 6.0 Jan-19 Feb Mar Apr May June July Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec Jan-20 Feb Mar Apr May June July Aug sept Oct Nov Dec Jan-21 Feb Mar Apr May June July Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec Jan-22 Feb Mar Apr May June July Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec
Since 2019

Months Inventory of Homes for Sale

Last 12 Months

Source: NAR
1.6 1.7 1.9 2.2 2.6 2.9 3.2 3.2 3.1 3.3 3.3 2.9 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 22-Jan Feb Mar Apr May June July Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec

Year-Over-Year Inventory Levels

Source: NAR
-30% -25% -20% -15% -10% -5% 0% 5% 10% January 2014 January 2015 January 2016 January 2017 January 2018 January 2019 January 2020 January 2021 January 2022 % 7. 5. 3. 6. 6. 5. 5. 4. 6. 5. 5. -0 -0 -0 2. -0 1. 0. -4 -1 -3 -4 -1 -3 -2 -1 -1 -3 -9 -5 -5 -1 -6 -1 -9 -6 -7 -6 -6 -9 -8 -7 -9 -6 -6 -1 -9 -1 -9 -8 -7 -6 -6 0. 0. 2. 1. 2. 4. 6. 4. 2. 2. 1. 2. 0. -1 -2 -2 -4 -5 -9 -1 -9 -1 -1 -1 -1 -2 -1 -1 -1 -2 -2 -2 -2 -2 -2 -2 -1 -1 -1 -1 -9 -1 -1 -1 -1 -9 -1 -4 2. 0. 0. -0 -0 2. 10

Year-Over-Year Inventory Levels

Last 12 Months

Source: NAR
-17.9% -15.5% -9.5% -10.4% -4.1% 2.4% 0.0% 0.0% -0.8% -0.8% 2.7% 10.2% Jan 2022 Feb Mar Apr May June July August Nov Dec July Aug Sept June Oct Nov Dec

New Home Monthly Inventory

Seasonally Adjusted, Last 12 Months

Source: Census
5.7 6.0 7.0 8.4 8.3 9.4 10.1 8.5 10.1 9.4 9.2 9.0 Jan 22 Feb Mar Apr May June Jul Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec

New Home Monthly Inventory

Non-Seasonally Adjusted

Source: Census
3.9 4.4 3.7 4.3 5.0 5.8 5.9 6.9 6.5 7.6 7.3 6.4 5.6 5.5 5.9 7.6 7.6 9.5 10.4 9.2 10.7 10.6 10.9 9.7 Jan Feb Mar Apr May June July Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec 2021 2022

Buyer Demand

Showing Traffic Dips Again

Year-Over-Year Increase in Showing Activity, December 2022

“There are early signals — including the small bounce back of showings in Western markets — that buyers are responding to December’s improvement in mortgage rates. We expect that more buyers will reemerge as we head into spring, and that we’ll see this reflected in home showing activity.”

Source: ShowingTime
-32.2% -27% -29.1% -36.3% -57.2% U.S. Northeast Midwest South West

Mortgage Rates

Mortgage Rates

30-Year Fixed Rate, January 2018–Today

2.0 2.5 3.0 3.5 4.0 4.5 5.0 5.5 6.0 6.5 7.0 7.5 8.0
Source: Freddie Mac
6.09%

Mortgage Rates

30-Year Fixed Rate, January 2016–Today

2.0 2.5 3.0 3.5 4.0 4.5 5.0 5.5 6.0 6.5 7.0 7.5 8.0 1/7/16 2/4 3/3 4/7 5/5 6/2 7/7 8/4 9/1 10/6 11/3 12/1 1/5/2017 2/2 3/2 3/30 4/27 5/25 6/22 7/20 8/17 9/14 10/12 11/9 12/7 1/4/2018 2/1 3/1 4/5 5/4 6/7 7/5 8/2 9/6 10/4 11/1 12/6 1/3/2019 1/31 3/7 4/4 5/2 6/6 7/3 8/1 9/5 10/3 11/7 12/5 1/2/2020 2/6 3/5 4/2 5/7 6/4 7/2 8/6 9/3 10/1 11/5 12/3 1/7/2021 2/4 3/4 4/1 5/6 6/3 7/1 8/5 9/2 10/7 11/4 12/2 1/6/2022 2/3 3/3 4/7 5/5 6/2 7/7 8/4 9/1 10/6 11/3 12/1 1/5 2/2 Source: Freddie Mac
6.09%

Mortgage Rate Projections

2023 Quarter Fannie Mae MBA NAR Average of All Three 2023 Q1 6.40% 6.20% 6.10% 6.23% 2023 Q2 6.40% 5.60% 5.70% 5.90% 2023 Q3 6.20% 5.40% 5.60% 5.73% 2023 Q4 6.10% 5.20% 5.50% 5.60%
February

Mortgage Rates

30-Year Fixed Rate

January 2019 – Today Actual Interest Rates

Where Are They Going?

2.0 3.0 4.0 5.0 6.0 7.0 8.0 2019 1/31 3/7 4/4 5/2 6/6 7/3 8/1 9/5 10/3 11/7 12/5 2020 2/6 3/5 4/2 5/7 6/4 7/2 8/6 9/3 10/1 11/5 12/3 2021 2/4 3/4 4/1 5/6 6/3 7/1 8/5 9/2 10/7 11/4 12/2 2022 2/3 3/3 4/7 5/5 6/2 7/7 8/4 9/1 10/6 11/3 12/1 1/5 2/2 6.2 5.6 5.4 5.2 2023 Q1 2023 Q2 2023 Q3 2023 Q4
Source: Freddie Mac, MBA

Mortgage Rates

30-Year Fixed Rate

Source: MBA
2018 Q1 2018 Q2 2018 Q3 2018 Q4 2019 Q1 2019 Q2 2019 Q3 2019 Q4 2020 Q1 2020 Q2 2020 Q3 2020 Q4 2021 Q1 2021 Q2 2021 Q3 2021 Q4 2022 Q1 2022 Q2 2022 Q3 2022 Q4 2023 Q1 2023 Q2 2023 Q3 2023 Q4 Rate 4.3 4.5 4.6 4.8 4.4 4 3.7 3.7 3.5 3.2 3.0 2.8 2.9 3.0 2.9 3.1 3.9 5.3 5.7 6.6 6.2 5.6 5.4 5.2 2.5 3 3.5 4 4.5 5 5.5 6 6.5 7 7.5 - Actual - Projected 2018 2019 2020 2021 2023 2022

Mortgage Credit Availability

Mortgage Credit Availability Index (MCAI)

Source: MBA
December 2022 100 110 120 130 140 150 160 170 180 190 Apr 2013 Jan 2014 Jan 2015 Jan 2016 Jan 2017 Jan 2018 Jan 2019 Jan 2020 Jan 2021 Jan 2022

Lending Standards Still Under Control

Source: MBA
Historic Data for the Mortgage Credit Availability Index (MCAI) 0 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 800 900 June 2004 June 2005 June 2006 June 2007 June 2008 June 2009 June 2010 June 2011 June 2012 June 2013 June 2014 June 2015 June 2016 June 2017 June 2018 June 2019 June 2020 June 2021 June 2022 Dec 2022 Housing Bubble: 868.7 103.3

Housing Market Statistics

for Northeast Valley Single Family Homes

in Carefree, Cave Creek, Fort McDowell, Fountain Hills, Paradise Valley, Rio Verde and Scottsdale, Arizona

Average Price per Sq Ft for Sold Northeast

Valley Single Family Homes

Average Days on Market for Sold Northeast Valley Single Family Homes

Number of Active Listings

for Northeast Valley Single Family Homes

Average Price per Sq Ft for Active Northeast Valley Single Family Listings

Peter Shambreskis, REALTOR®, ABR, CRS, GRI, SFR 480-229-6468 Corinne Howard, REALTOR®, ePRO, GRI, SFR, SRS 480-229-6467 info@ShambreskisAndHoward.com www.ShowScottsdaleHomes.com CONTACT US TO DISCUSS YOUR LOCAL ARIZONA REAL ESTATE MARKET

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