February 2023 DPR Realty
“People do not follow the best leaders. They follow the ones they can understand the easiest.”
- Donald Miller
Mortgage Rates Trending Downward
Freddie Mac 30-Year Fixed Rate, November 2022 – Today
Source: Freddie Mac
7.08 6.61 6.58 6.49 6.33 6.31 6.27 6.42 6.48 6.33 6.15 11/10 12/08 1/5/2023 2/2 6.13 2/2
6.09%
worked through the 5
of grief of higher mortgage rates.
- Ali Wolf, Chief Economist, Zonda
I wonder if some consumers have
stages
Source: KCM Analysis, Mortgage News Daily
Mortgage News Daily Rate Index: 30-Year Fixed Rate 5.5 6 6.5 7 7.5 1/3 1/4 1/5 1/6 1/9 1/10 1/11 1/12 1/13 1/16 1/17 1/18 1/19 1/20 1/23 1/24 1/25 1/26 1/27 1/30 1/31 2/1 2/2 2/3 Good Buyer Demand Limited Buyer Demand Weak Buyer Demand Strong Buyer Demand
2023 30-Year Fixed Rate
New Listings Now Below Previous Years
Source: realtor.com
New Monthly Listing Counts (in Thousands) 200 250 300 350 400 450 500 550 600 650 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022
New Listings Now Below Previous Years
Source: realtor.com
New Monthly Listing Counts (in Thousands) 200 250 300 350 400 450 500 550 600 650 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 December 2022 239K -21.0% Y-O-Y
New Listings Now Below Previous Years
Since January 2017, Last 7 Januarys
Source: realtor.com
422,184 413,608 436,098 420,948 392,732 336,416 318,096 January 2017 January 2018 January 2019 January 2020 January 2021 January 2022 January 2023
I'm looking at the latest housing data and I see surprising demand indicators, including home price resiliency and supply staying restricted. Who woulda guessed that?
- Mike Simonsen, CEO, Altos Research
THE TURN
Big Banks Beginning To Revise Forecasts?
Goldman Sachs Dramatically Changes Home Price Forecast for 2023
January 10, 2023
January 24, 2023
-2.6%
-6.1%
Lance Lambert
Source:
Have Home Values Hit Bottom?
2022 MOM % Change in Home Values for 4 Different Indices
Source: Case Shiller, FHFA, Black Knight, CoreLogic
1.1 1.7 2.6 2.1 1.5 0.6 -0.3 -1.1 -1 -0.5 -0.6 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec 1.6 1.9 1.5 1.6 1.2 0.1 -0.6 -0.7 0.1 0 -0.1 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Sept Oct Jul Aug Nov Dec 1.3 2.3 2.7 2.5 1.5 0.2 -1.1 -1 -0.5 -0.4 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec 1.4 2.2 3.3 2.6 1.8 0.6 -0.3 -0.7 -0.5 -0.1 -0.2 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec Case Shiller FHFA Black Knight CoreLogic
Headlines Do More To Terrify than Clarify
67% of Americans say a housing market crash is imminent in the next 3 years. Source: NerdWallet
ATTOM, a leading curator of real estate data nationwide for land and property data, today released its Year-End 2022 U.S. Foreclosure Market Report, which shows foreclosure filings— default notices, scheduled auctions and bank repossessions — were reported on 324,237 U.S. properties in 2022, up 115% from 2021 but down 34% from 2019, before the pandemic shook up the market. Foreclosure filings in 2022 were also down 89% from a peak of nearly 2.9 million in 2010.
- ATTOM
U.S. Foreclosure Activity Doubles Annually, But Still Below Pre-Pandemic Levels
U.S. Properties with Foreclosure Filings
Source: ATTOM
533K 718K 1.3M 2.3M 2.8M 2.9M 1.9M 1.8M 1.4M 1.1M 1.1M 933K 677K 624K 493K 214K 151K 324K 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 Over 1 Million
1M Fewer Foreclosures Over the Last 3 Years
U.S. Properties with Foreclosure Filings
Source: ATTOM
676,535 624,753 493,066 214,323 151,153 324,273 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 Short 161,26 0 Foreclosu res Short 383,795 Foreclosures Short 446,965 Foreclosures Short 273,845 Foreclosures 598,118 (Average: 2017 – 2019)
Eighteen months after the end of the government’s foreclosure moratorium, and with less than five percent of the 8.4 million borrowers who entered the CARES Act forbearance program remaining, foreclosure activity remains significantly lower than it was prior to the COVID-19 pandemic. It seems clear that government and mortgage industry efforts during the pandemic, coupled with a strong economy, have helped prevent millions of unnecessary foreclosures.
- Rick Sharga, Executive VP of Market Intelligence, ATTOM
The bottom line is there will be an increase in foreclosures over the next year (from record low levels), but there will not be a huge wave of distressed sales as happened following the housing bubble. The distressed sales during the housing bust led to cascading price declines, and that will not happen this time.
- Bill McBride, Founder, CalculatedRisk, 1/16/2023
WE MUST CONTROL THE
NARRATIVE
Resources Slide(s) Description Link(s) 2 Miller Quote https://storybrand.com/ 3 Mortgage Rates Trends https://freddiemac.gcs-web.com/node/26656/pdf http://www.freddiemac.com/pmms/ 4 Wolf Quote https://twitter.com/AliWolfEcon/status/16168949837092986 88 5 30-Year Fixed Rate Graph https://www.mortgagenewsdaily.com/mortgage-rates 6-8 New Listings Graphs https://www.realtor.com/research/data/ 9 Simonsen Quote https://twitter.com/mikesimonsen/status/161761987896555 5202 11 Goldman Sachs Forecast https://twitter.com/NewsLambert/status/1617960706955182 080
https://www.spglobal.com/spdji/en/indices/indicators/spcorelogic-case-shiller-us-national-home-price-nsaindex/#news-research
https://www.fhfa.gov/AboutUs/Reports/ReportDocuments/F HFA-HPI-Monthly-1312023.pdf
https://www.blackknightinc.com/data-reports/
https://www.corelogic.com/intelligence/u-s-home-priceinsights-january-2023/
https://www.nerdwallet.com/article/mortgages/2023-homebuyer-report
https://www.mpamag.com/us/mortgage-industry/marketupdates/us-foreclosure-filings-surged-115-in-2022/432815
https://www.nationalmortgagenews.com/news/foreclosuresfilings-rose-115-in-the-past-year
https://www.nbc12.com/prnewswire/2023/01/12/usforeclosure-activity-doubles-annually-still-below-prepandemic-levels/
Resources Slide(s) Description Link(s) 12 2022 Home Values
14 NerdWallet Survey
15 Headlines
https://www.attomdata.com/news/markettrends/foreclosures/attom-year-end-2022-u-s-foreclosuremarket-report/
https://www.attomdata.com/news/markettrends/foreclosures/attom-year-end-2022-u-s-foreclosuremarket-report/
https://www.attomdata.com/news/markettrends/foreclosures/attom-year-end-2022-u-s-foreclosuremarket-report/
https://calculatedrisk.substack.com/p/the-housing-bubbleand-mortgage-debt-76d
Resources Slide(s) Description Link(s) 16 ATTOM Data Quote
17 & 18 Foreclosures over Time Graphs
19 Sharga Quote
20 McBride Quote
Updates
https://www.nar.realtor/research-and-statistics/researchreports/realtors-confidence-index
http://www.census.gov/newhomesales
http://www.census.gov/construction/nrs/pdf/newressales.pdf
https://www.nar.realtor/topics/existing-home-sales
https://www.nar.realtor/research-and-statistics/housingstatistics/pending-home-sales
https://www.spglobal.com/spdji/en/indices/indicators/spcorelogic-case-shiller-20-city-composite-home-price-nsaindex/#news-research
https://www.corelogic.com/intelligence/u-s-home-priceinsights/
Resources Slide(s) Description Link(s) 29 Confidence Index
30-32, 40, 42, 43, 49-54 Existing Home Sales https://www.nar.realtor/topics/existing-home-sales 33-36 New Home Sales
http://www.census.gov/construction/nrs/pdf/newressales.pdf
37 Total Home Sales
38, 39 Pending Home Sales
44-46 Case Shiller
47 CoreLogic Price Forecast
https://www.nar.realtor/topics/existing-home-sales
http://www.census.gov/construction/nrs/pdf/newressales.pdf
https://www.realtor.com/research/data/
https://www.showingtime.com/blog/december-2022showing-index-results-west-sees-small-uptick-to-end-2022/
http://www.freddiemac.com/pmms/pmms_archives.html
http://www.freddiemac.com/research/forecast/
https://www.mba.org/news-research-andresources/research-and-economics/forecasts-andcommentary
http://www.fanniemae.com/portal/researchinsights/forecast.html
https://www.mba.org/news-research-andresources/research-and-economics/forecasts-andcommentary
https://www.nar.realtor/research-and-statistics
https://www.mba.org/news-research-andresources/newsroom
https://www.mba.org/news-research-andresources/research-and-economics/single-familyresearch/mortgage-credit-availability-index
Resources Slide(s) Description Link(s) 49-56 Inventory
66 Showing Activity
60, 61, 63, 64 Mortgage Rates
62 Mortgage Rate Projections
66, 67 Mortgage Credit Availability
Home Sales
Average Days on the Market
46 49 44 36 24 26 27 29 31 31 36 38 41 41 36 29 27 26 24 22 22 21 21 21 21 20 18 17 17 17 17 17 17 18 18 19 19 18 17 17 16 14 14 16 19 24 26 Jan-19 Feb Mar Apr May June July Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec Jan-20 Feb Mar Apr May June July Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec Jan-21 Feb Mar Apr May June July Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec Jan-22 Feb Mar Apr May June July Aug Sept Nov Dec Source: NAR
December
2022
Existing Home Sales
Since January 2014
Source: NAR
3,800,000 4,300,000 4,800,000 5,300,000 5,800,000 6,300,000 6,800,000 Jan 2014 Jan 2015 Jan 2016 Jan 2017 Jan 2018 Jan 2019 Jan 2020 Jan 2021 Jan 2022
Existing Home Sales
Year-Over-Year, by Region
Source: NAR
-34.0% -28.8% -30.3% -33.1% -43.4% U.S.
South
Northeast Midwest
West
Existing Home Sales
Source: NAR
In Thousands 0 100 200 300 400 500 600 January February March April May June July August September October November December 2020 2021 2022
New Home Sales
Source: Census
In Thousands 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 January February March April May June July August September October November December 2020 2021 2022
New Home Sales
Source: Census
Annualized in Thousands 360 460 560 660 760 860 960 1060 jun-14 Jan-… Jan-… Jan-… Jan-… Jan-… Jan-… Jan-… Jan-…
New Home Sales
by
0% 10% 32% 18% 30% 9% Under $150K $150-$199K $200-299K $300-$399K $400-$499K $500-$749K Over $750K Source: Census
1%
Percent of Distribution
Price Range * Less Than 500 Units or Less Than 0.5 Percent *
New Homes Selling Fast
Median Months from Completion to Sold
Source: Census
3.2 3.6 3.6 3.4 3.5 3.6 3.4 3.2 3.5 3.1 3.2 3.0 3.4 3.4 3.4 3.3 3.6 4.2 4.3 4.5 4.5 4.2 4.0 3.6 3.2 3.7 5.1 4.9 4.5 4.1 4.5 3.6 3.1 2.5 2.9 3.2 2.8 2.7 3.5 3.5 2.8 2.9 2.4 1.9 1.5 1.5 1.8 2.0 Jan-19 Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec Jan-20 Feb Mar Apr May June July Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec Jan-21 Feb Mar Apr May June July Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec Jan-22 Feb Mar Apr May June July Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec
Total Home Sales
Source: Census
In Thousands 443 436 567 587 593 676 646 631 604 577 557 574 422 423 524 517 557 575 495 528 477 419 372 374 January February March April May June July August September October November December 2021 2022
Pending Home Sales
Source: NAR
60 70 80 90 100 110 120 130 140 January 2012 January 2013 January 2014 January 2015 January 2016 January 2017 January 2018 January 2019 January 2020 January 2021 January 2022 100 = Historically Healthy Level
Pending Home Sales
Year-Over-Year by Region
Source: NAR
100 = Historically Healthy Level -33.8% -32.5% -30.1% -34.5% -37.5% U.S. Northeast Midwest South West
Percentage of Distressed Property Sales
Distressed Sales (Foreclosures and Short Sales) represented 1% of Sales in December.
Source: NAR
0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35% Jan 2012 Jan 2013 Jan 2014 Jan 2015 Jan 2016 Jan 2017 Jan 2018 Jan 2019 Jan 2020 Jan 2021 Jan 2022 4%
Home Prices
Sales Price of Existing Homes
Year-Over-Year, by Region
2.3% 1.6% 2.9% 3.5% 0.0% U.S. Northeast Midwest South West Source: NAR
% Change in Sales
Year-Over-Year, by Price Range
Source: NAR
$0-100K $100-250K $250-500K $500-750K $750K-1M $1M+ % -28.3% -37.3% -34.3% -35.2% -38.6% -45.2% -28.3% -37.3% -34.3% -35.2% -38.6% -45.2%
Change in Home Prices
Year-Over-Year
Source: S&P Case-Shiller
0% 5% 10% 15% 20% Jun 2012 Jan 2013 Jan 2014 Jan 2015 Jan 2016 Jan 2017 Jan 2018 Jan 2019 Jan 2020 Jan 2021 Jan 2022
Change in Home Prices
Year-Over-Year, 20 City Composite
Source: S&P Case-Shiller Jan 2014 Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec Jan 2015 Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec Jan 2016 Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec Jan 2017 Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec Jan 2018 Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec Jan 2019 Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec Jan 2020 Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec Jan 2021 Feb Mar Apr May June July Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec Jan 2022 Feb Mar Apr May June July Aug Sept Oct Nov
Change in Home Prices
Year-Over-Year, 20 City Composite
Source:
Case-Shiller
S&P
18.6% 18.9% 20.3% 21.1% 21.2% 20.5% 18.7% 16.0% 13.1% 10.4% 8.6% 6.8% Dec Jan 2022 Feb Mar Apr May June July Aug Sept Oct Nov
Year-Over-Year % Change in Price
December 2022
Source: CoreLogic
6.9% 3.0%
Current Forecast
Housing Inventory
Change in Inventory
Month-Over-Month, January 2023
Source: realtor.com
Months Inventory of Homes for Sale
Source: NAR
2011 - Today 1.5 2.5 3.5 4.5 5.5 6.5 7.5 8.5 9.5 January 2011 January 2012 January 2013 January 2014 January 2015 January 2016 January 2017 January 2018 January 2019 January 2020 January 2021 January 2022
Months Inventory of Homes for Sale
Source: NAR
3.8 3.6 3.8 4.2 4.34.3 4.2 4.04.0 3.9 3.7 3.0 3.13.1 3.3 4.0 4.6 3.9 3.1 3.0 2.7 2.5 2.3 1.91.9 2.0 2.1 2.3 2.52.5 2.62.6 2.42.4 2.1 1.7 1.6 1.7 1.9 2.2 2.6 2.9 3.23.2 3.1 3.33.3 2.9 1.5 2.0 2.5 3.0 3.5 4.0 4.5 5.0 5.5 6.0 Jan-19 Feb Mar Apr May June July Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec Jan-20 Feb Mar Apr May June July Aug sept Oct Nov Dec Jan-21 Feb Mar Apr May June July Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec Jan-22 Feb Mar Apr May June July Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec
Since 2019
Months Inventory of Homes for Sale
Last 12 Months
Source: NAR
1.6 1.7 1.9 2.2 2.6 2.9 3.2 3.2 3.1 3.3 3.3 2.9 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 22-Jan Feb Mar Apr May June July Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec
Year-Over-Year Inventory Levels
Source: NAR
-30% -25% -20% -15% -10% -5% 0% 5% 10% January 2014 January 2015 January 2016 January 2017 January 2018 January 2019 January 2020 January 2021 January 2022 % 7. 5. 3. 6. 6. 5. 5. 4. 6. 5. 5. -0 -0 -0 2. -0 1. 0. -4 -1 -3 -4 -1 -3 -2 -1 -1 -3 -9 -5 -5 -1 -6 -1 -9 -6 -7 -6 -6 -9 -8 -7 -9 -6 -6 -1 -9 -1 -9 -8 -7 -6 -6 0. 0. 2. 1. 2. 4. 6. 4. 2. 2. 1. 2. 0. -1 -2 -2 -4 -5 -9 -1 -9 -1 -1 -1 -1 -2 -1 -1 -1 -2 -2 -2 -2 -2 -2 -2 -1 -1 -1 -1 -9 -1 -1 -1 -1 -9 -1 -4 2. 0. 0. -0 -0 2. 10
Year-Over-Year Inventory Levels
Last 12 Months
Source: NAR
-17.9% -15.5% -9.5% -10.4% -4.1% 2.4% 0.0% 0.0% -0.8% -0.8% 2.7% 10.2% Jan 2022 Feb Mar Apr May June July August Nov Dec July Aug Sept June Oct Nov Dec
New Home Monthly Inventory
Seasonally Adjusted, Last 12 Months
Source: Census
5.7 6.0 7.0 8.4 8.3 9.4 10.1 8.5 10.1 9.4 9.2 9.0 Jan 22 Feb Mar Apr May June Jul Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec
New Home Monthly Inventory
Non-Seasonally Adjusted
Source: Census
3.9 4.4 3.7 4.3 5.0 5.8 5.9 6.9 6.5 7.6 7.3 6.4 5.6 5.5 5.9 7.6 7.6 9.5 10.4 9.2 10.7 10.6 10.9 9.7 Jan Feb Mar Apr May June July Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec 2021 2022
Buyer Demand
Showing Traffic Dips Again
Year-Over-Year Increase in Showing Activity, December 2022
Michael Lane, Vice President & General Manager, ShowingTime+
“There are early signals — including the small bounce back of showings in Western markets — that buyers are responding to December’s improvement in mortgage rates. We expect that more buyers will reemerge as we head into spring, and that we’ll see this reflected in home showing activity.”
Source: ShowingTime
-32.2% -27% -29.1% -36.3% -57.2% U.S. Northeast Midwest South West
Mortgage Rates
Mortgage Rates
30-Year Fixed Rate, January 2018–Today
2.0 2.5 3.0 3.5 4.0 4.5 5.0 5.5 6.0 6.5 7.0 7.5 8.0
Source: Freddie Mac
6.09%
Mortgage Rates
30-Year Fixed Rate, January 2016–Today
2.0 2.5 3.0 3.5 4.0 4.5 5.0 5.5 6.0 6.5 7.0 7.5 8.0 1/7/16 2/4 3/3 4/7 5/5 6/2 7/7 8/4 9/1 10/6 11/3 12/1 1/5/2017 2/2 3/2 3/30 4/27 5/25 6/22 7/20 8/17 9/14 10/12 11/9 12/7 1/4/2018 2/1 3/1 4/5 5/4 6/7 7/5 8/2 9/6 10/4 11/1 12/6 1/3/2019 1/31 3/7 4/4 5/2 6/6 7/3 8/1 9/5 10/3 11/7 12/5 1/2/2020 2/6 3/5 4/2 5/7 6/4 7/2 8/6 9/3 10/1 11/5 12/3 1/7/2021 2/4 3/4 4/1 5/6 6/3 7/1 8/5 9/2 10/7 11/4 12/2 1/6/2022 2/3 3/3 4/7 5/5 6/2 7/7 8/4 9/1 10/6 11/3 12/1 1/5 2/2 Source: Freddie Mac
6.09%
Mortgage Rate Projections
2023 Quarter Fannie Mae MBA NAR Average of All Three 2023 Q1 6.40% 6.20% 6.10% 6.23% 2023 Q2 6.40% 5.60% 5.70% 5.90% 2023 Q3 6.20% 5.40% 5.60% 5.73% 2023 Q4 6.10% 5.20% 5.50% 5.60%
February
Mortgage Rates
30-Year Fixed Rate
January 2019 – Today Actual Interest Rates
Where Are They Going?
2.0 3.0 4.0 5.0 6.0 7.0 8.0 2019 1/31 3/7 4/4 5/2 6/6 7/3 8/1 9/5 10/3 11/7 12/5 2020 2/6 3/5 4/2 5/7 6/4 7/2 8/6 9/3 10/1 11/5 12/3 2021 2/4 3/4 4/1 5/6 6/3 7/1 8/5 9/2 10/7 11/4 12/2 2022 2/3 3/3 4/7 5/5 6/2 7/7 8/4 9/1 10/6 11/3 12/1 1/5 2/2 6.2 5.6 5.4 5.2 2023 Q1 2023 Q2 2023 Q3 2023 Q4
Source: Freddie Mac, MBA
Mortgage Rates
30-Year Fixed Rate
Source: MBA
2018 Q1 2018 Q2 2018 Q3 2018 Q4 2019 Q1 2019 Q2 2019 Q3 2019 Q4 2020 Q1 2020 Q2 2020 Q3 2020 Q4 2021 Q1 2021 Q2 2021 Q3 2021 Q4 2022 Q1 2022 Q2 2022 Q3 2022 Q4 2023 Q1 2023 Q2 2023 Q3 2023 Q4 Rate 4.3 4.5 4.6 4.8 4.4 4 3.7 3.7 3.5 3.2 3.0 2.8 2.9 3.0 2.9 3.1 3.9 5.3 5.7 6.6 6.2 5.6 5.4 5.2 2.5 3 3.5 4 4.5 5 5.5 6 6.5 7 7.5 - Actual - Projected 2018 2019 2020 2021 2023 2022
Mortgage Credit Availability
Mortgage Credit Availability Index (MCAI)
Source: MBA
December 2022 100 110 120 130 140 150 160 170 180 190 Apr 2013 Jan 2014 Jan 2015 Jan 2016 Jan 2017 Jan 2018 Jan 2019 Jan 2020 Jan 2021 Jan 2022
Lending Standards Still Under Control
Source: MBA
Historic Data for the Mortgage Credit Availability Index (MCAI) 0 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 800 900 June 2004 June 2005 June 2006 June 2007 June 2008 June 2009 June 2010 June 2011 June 2012 June 2013 June 2014 June 2015 June 2016 June 2017 June 2018 June 2019 June 2020 June 2021 June 2022 Dec 2022 Housing Bubble: 868.7 103.3
Housing Market Statistics
for Northeast Valley Single Family Homes
in Carefree, Cave Creek, Fort McDowell, Fountain Hills, Paradise Valley, Rio Verde and Scottsdale, Arizona
Average Price per Sq Ft for Sold Northeast
Valley Single Family Homes
Average Days on Market for Sold Northeast Valley Single Family Homes
Number of Active Listings
for Northeast Valley Single Family Homes
Average Price per Sq Ft for Active Northeast Valley Single Family Listings
Peter Shambreskis, REALTOR®, ABR, CRS, GRI, SFR 480-229-6468 Corinne Howard, REALTOR®, ePRO, GRI, SFR, SRS 480-229-6467 info@ShambreskisAndHoward.com www.ShowScottsdaleHomes.com CONTACT US TO DISCUSS YOUR LOCAL ARIZONA REAL ESTATE MARKET