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PUBLIC PRESS ISSUE 18
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WINTER 2016
SPECIAL REPORT
THE COST OF LIVING HERE
With Mayor Far Ahead in Polls, Issues Got Left Behind Local press struggled to cover an election that seemed a foregone conclusion PAGE A3
Shoreline Building vs. Sea Rise: Not If, but When The Giants’ proposed $1.6 billion Mission Rock lies in possible future flood plain PAGE A3
Mission High Students, Teachers Defy Experts Author Kristina Rizga spent four years documenting one of San Francisco’s lowestperforming schools and challenged her own assumptions about what it takes for students to truly succeed PAGES A4–5
Mission 800 sq. ft. 2005: $2,000 2010: $3,000 2015: $3,950
CONSUMER PRICES OUTPACE EFFORTS TO AID CITY’S PINCHED MIDDLE CLASS
A Chinook helicopter from the California National Guard prepares for a water drop during the Rocky Fire near Clearlake, Calif. Photo by U.S. Army National Guard Sgt. Jason Beal
What's Left of California's Climate Change Policy? A Lot.
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he Legislature may have scuttled the centerpiece of Gov. Jerry Brown’s climate change plans, but it still approved ambitious new environmental policies that will affect the economy and lives of Californians. In coming years, the new legislation means California’s homes and buildings are expected to use dramatically less electricity and the power grid will increase its share of renewable energy. Brown also hopes to achieve much of what the Legislature rejected through executive orders and regulations. That will mean more electric cars on the road and increased use of biofuels as part of a far-reaching effort to slash greenhouse gas emissions. “This is a long trek forward to change the very basis of our industrial economy,” Brown said in September. “And I think we’re making tremendous progress.” In the legislative session that ended on Sept. 11, lawmakers halted a bill that would have mandated deep greenhouse gas emissions cuts by the year 2050. They also failed to extend the state’s carbon-limiting cap-and-trade program, which may otherwise expire in 2020.
Executive orders require emissions reductions of 40 percent below 1990 levels by 2030 and 80 percent below 1990 levels by 2050. Most contentious of all was a bid to slash petroleum use in motor vehicles in half by 2030. That idea got dropped after the oil industry launched a vigorous advertising campaign in opposition, and some Democrats in the state Assembly shied away. Still, Brown and Senate President Pro Tem Kevin de León, D-Los Angeles, will bring almost unparalleled
accomplishments to a major international climatechange conference in Paris in December. Early in September, lawmakers passed and sent to the governor a landmark measure carried by de León, Senate Bill 350, to require electric power providers to get half of their electricity from renewable sources by 2030 (currently, they are required to get 33 percent by 2020). It is a target that is stricter than in all but a few states. The renewable energy goal means that electricity providers must invest in more wind farms and largescale solar plants as well as new transmission infrastructure. Currently, the three major utilities in the state — Pacific Gas & Electric, Southern California Edison and San Diego Gas & Electric — each gets more than 20 percent of its electricity from renewables. The state Public Utilities Commission has not yet studied how the 50 percent target might affect consumers’ electric rates. Terrie Prosper, a commission spokeswoman, said the marginal cost should be minimal “if new technologies like storage and electric vehicles can be effectively used to integrate renewable resources.” The renewable energy bill, which Brown signed on Oct. 7, also calls for new and existing buildings across the state to become, collectively, twice as energy efficient by 2030. This means that Californians can expect to get more information about their homes’ energy usage, a helpful tool for homebuyers, among others. It is also likely to be easier to find and use incentives like rebates to make homes more efficient. Energy-use standards for electronic appliances may also continue to tighten. “It is a very big goal,” said Dennis Murphy of the U.S. Green Building Council’s California branch, who noted that the state already was far more energy-efficient than most other states. Churches, schools and office buildings will be affected as well as homes, he said. The third leg of de León’s bill would have required the state to cut petroleum usage in motor vehicles in half by 2030. That portion got removed from the final
bill. But Brown said that the California Air Resources Board, which would have taken charge of the petroleum mandate had it passed, would work toward a lowerpetroleum future anyhow. “The only thing we don’t have is a formal statement in law of a 50 percent goal,” Brown said. “But the ARB is committed to that 50 percent goal, and I am committed to backing them up.” The air board is already planning for long-term greenhouse gas emissions cuts to comply with executive orders issued by Brown and his predecessor, Arnold Schwarzenegger. The executive orders require emissions reductions of 40 percent below 1990 levels by 2030 and 80 percent below 1990 levels by 2050. These cuts will have impacts for many sectors, prompting industrial plants and even perhaps farms to cut their greenhouse gas output. A bill would have codified those goals into law, which would preserve the goal in the statute no matter who succeeds Brown as governor. “It’s not really set in stone. It’s an executive order,” said Ethan Elkind, a climate expert affiliated with the law schools of the University of California in both Berkeley and Los Angeles. He added that some groups may not follow those orders the way they would legislation. But assuming the air board crafts policies to comply with the executive orders, that should effectively mean a close to 50 percent cut in petroleum use, said Simon Mui of the Natural Resources Defense Council — on the order, in other words, of what de León and Brown originally outlined. Indeed, despite Brown’s fury at the oil companies, the air board may not be able to enact petroleum cuts directly, in the absence of legislative action. The Air Resources Board “has pretty broad authority over air emissions, but I don’t think that translates into a direct ability to reduce petroleum,” said Brian Cragg, an attorney with the San Francisco firm Goodin, MacBride, Squeri & Day. “They would have to try to find some tie to air emissions … that would result in a
State and regional efforts to protect environment might exacerbate urban displacement PAGE A6
Traffic-Calming Test Promises Safer Streets Transportation measure funds signals that slow down drivers near school PAGE A6
California’s Costly Drought Conundrum
Rising local housing costs throw many into poverty
Despite some setbacks, state still barrels ahead with goals to reduce emissions By Kate Galbraith // CALmatters
Mapping Gentrification Across the Bay Area
reduction.” Air board spokesman Dave Clegern said in an e-mail that the agency does not comment on legislation. However, “broadly we would note that Senate Bill 350 did not expand ARB’s authority, nor was it a directive to create new regulations,” he said. The major programs needed to meet the decarbonizing goals announced this year by the governor are already in place, Clegern said. The air board has crafted policies that include reducing the carbon content of fuels, regulating the emissions from cars and trucks, and rewarding automakers that sell electric vehicles to Californians. The board also runs the cap-and-trade program, which limits carbon across nearly the entire California economy. The air board operates some of its key programs under a landmark piece of legislation passed in 2006, which sought to slash California’s greenhouse gas emissions to 1990 levels by 2020 — a goal that state officials expect to meet in time. But the air board, which is overseen by a panel of gubernatorial appointees, is also likely to face increased scrutiny from both businesses and lawmakers as it embarks on more ambitious policies whose costs have yet to be determined, including those that affect petroleum. New legislation provides that the Senate and the Assembly will now each appoint one member of the agency. “There’s going to be a lot more attention paid to what strategies that we have available, including, like, litigation, to be able to address [regulatory] decisions, if we don’t think they’re fair and balanced,” said Rob Lapsley, president of the California Business Roundtable. Lawmakers, some of whom toyed with the idea of curbing the air board’s power during the recent session, will also take a more active role in overseeing the agency, Lapsley said.
I
n the drive to build a robust technologydriven local economy, San Francisco has attracted droves of high-income earners, giving it a larger share of wealthy residents than any other U.S. city. That is making living here increasingly unaffordable for everyone else. Studies suggest that more than 10 percent of residents who would be middle class anywhere else should be considered poor here. Housing accounts for about half the growth in what consumers across the Bay Area spent over the last 15 years, and there is ample evidence showing that the housing crunch is most acute within city limits. San Francisco leaders are tackling the affordability crisis, but existing and emerging policies just prune the edges of the problem. The city has made costly investments, including Healthy San Francisco, perhaps the nation’s most comprehensive municipal health-care safety net. It also plans to offer low- and moderate-income residents subsidies beyond the Affordable Care Act. San Franciscans enjoy cheaper transportation overall, since car ownership is option-
al. But a $2.25 one-way Muni fare is no bargain for low-income residents if slow service limits job and shopping opportunities. The city and state offer help to reduce the price of Internet service (including a plan for free citywide Wi-Fi); low-cost child care; and nutrition assistance on top of food stamps. But many policies, including cost-of-living adjustments for wages, welfare guarantees and low-cost housing, are based on national or regionwide inflation statistics that do not reflect the city’s economic reality. San Franciscans not sheltered by rent control, subsidized housing or other protections are at risk of losing their homes. To increase the housing supply, in October the city announced a plan to house 500 schoolteachers by 2020. The mayor’s ambitious $310 million bond issue that voters passed this fall promises to build 775 units. Yet the need is often pegged in tens of thousands of affordable apartments, so these modest efforts are unlikely to affect housing prices anytime soon.
At markets blocks apart, different price points for similar food.
The 5-Decade Audit: A Police Tragi-Comic Access to crime statistics is limited because the police estimate that records would take half a century to release PAGE A6
Climate Change Legislation Limited, but Still Powerful Despite failed effort to regulate fuel use, new California laws will cut greenhouse gas emissions and boost efficient power for homes and businesses PAGE A8
STORIES BEGIN ON PAGE B1
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CALmatters is a Sacramento-based nonpartisan, nonprofit journalism venture committed to explaining how California’s Capitol works and why it matters.
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PARENT TRAP: CHILD-CARE COSTS SOAR, OUTSTRIPPING SUBSIDIES Outdated poverty measure means some no longer qualify PAGE B2
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CITY SEEKS SOLUTIONS FOR HELPING RESIDENTS LOWER THEIR BILLS San Francisco offers many programs; activists call for more PAGE B3 TWO CENTRAL CITY GROCERIES CONTRAST BASIC AND UPSCALE FOOD Mid-Market stores are worlds apart, a sign of rapid change PAGE B4
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AFFORDABLE TRANSIT’S HIDDEN COST: SLOW SERVICE HITS LOW-INCOME RIDERS Riding the bus is cheaper than driving, but only if Muni arrives on time PAGE B7 DIGITAL DIVIDE LEAVES 100,000 S.F. RESIDENTS WITHOUT HOME INTERNET One proposal to bridge the digital divide: offer free citywide Wi-Fi PAGE B7 GRAPHIC: HOUSING PRICES SHOW NATIONAL STATISTICS ARE NOT USEFUL HERE In four years, costs for Bay Area residences dwarfed other expenses PAGE B8 PROSPECTS FOR REGIONAL MINIMUM WAGE GROW WITH RECENT INCREASES Prominent local labor union has successfully organized city by city PAGE B8
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EVEN IN FOODIE PARADISE, MANY FAMILIES STRUGGLE TO PUT DINNER ON TABLE Shops catering to sophisticated palates mask food insecurity PAGE B5
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S.F. EXPANDS HEALTH INSURANCE AID TO CLOSE AFFORDABILITY GAP Covers families not poor enough for free clinic-based care PAGE B2
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State cannot afford to keep pumping groundwater, nor can it stop PAGE A7
