Aging Trends and Patterns in the United States and the World

Aging Trends and Patterns: World and United States Wan He, Ph.D. U.S. Census Bureau

Presentation at Argentum Senior Executive Conference, May 10, 2016, Denver, CO

Any views expressed on statistical and methodological issues are those of the authors and not necessarily those of the U.S. Census Bureau.

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FINDINGS FROM CENSUS BUREAU PUBLICATIONS An Aging World: 2015 (Issued 2016) 65+ in the United States: 2010 (Issued 2014) Older Americans With a Disability: 2008-2012 (Issued 2014)

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FOCUS OF THE PRESENTATION •

Global aging trends & patterns

•

Variations among world regions/countries

•

Growth and geographic distribution of U.S. older population

•

Societal support burden

•

Summary and discussion

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Population Size & Proportion

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World Total Population and Population Aged 65 and Over

by Sex: 2015, 2030, and 2050 (Numbers in millions)

Year

Total population Both sexes

Male

2015

7,253.3

2030 2050

Percentage aged 65 and over Population aged 65 and over of total

Female

Both sexes

Female

Both sexes

Male

Male

Female

3,652.0

3,601.3

617.1

274.9

342.2

8.5

7.5

9.5

8,315.8

4,176.7

4,139.1

998.7

445.2

553.4

12.0

10.7

13.4

9,376.4

4,681.7

4,694.7

1,565.8

698.5

867.3

16.7

14.9

18.5

Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2013 International Data Base.

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Population Aged 65 and Over by World Region: 2015 to 2050 (In millions)

1600 1400 1200

Africa

1000 Asia

800 600 400

Europe 200

Latin America and the Caribbean

0 2015

Northern America/Oceania 2020

2025

2030

2035

2040

2045

2050

Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2013 International Data Base.

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Percent Distribution of Population Aged 65 and Over

by World Region: 2015 and 2050 9.5%

6.6% 6.6%

7.6%

9.6%

8.9%

Africa

Asia

Europe

21.0%

55.3%

12.6%

Latin America and the Caribbean

62.3%

Northern America/Oceania

2015

2050

Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2013 International Data Base.

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China’s Older Population vs.

Total Populations of Selected Countries (In thousands) 2015

2030

2050

400,000

400,000

400,000

350,000

350,000

350,000 Australia

300,000

300,000

300,000 Germany

250,000

250,000

250,000

200,000

200,000

200,000

China Egypt

Egypt 150,000

150,000

150,000 China

100,000

100,000 China

100,000

Japan

Japan

50,000

50,000

50,000

0

0

0

65+

All ages

65+

All ages

Japan

65+

All ages

Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2013 International Data Base.

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The World’s 25 Oldest Countries: 2015 and 2050 (Percentage of population aged 65 and over)

2015

Asia Europe Northern America

2050

Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2013 International Data Base.

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Population Aged 65 and Over in the United States: 1900 to 2050 Population (left scale)

Millions

As percent of total population (right scale)

Percent 25

90 80

20

70 60

15 50 40 10 30 20

5

10 0

0 1900

1910

1920

1930

1940

1950

1960

1970

1980

1990

2000

2010

2020

2030

2040

2050

Sources: U.S. Census Bureau, decennial censuses, 2012 National Population Projections, Middle series.

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Speed of Aging

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Number of Years for Percent Aged 65 and Older in Total Population to Triple: Selected Countries From 7 percent to 14 percent France (1865-2022)

115

Sweden (1890-2015)

26

69

Hungary (1941-2021)

20

53

Poland (1966-2024)

27

45

13

26

16

21

Japan (1970-2007)

25

China (2001-2035)

23

South Korea (2000-2027)

40

73

United States (1944-2033)

Brazil (2012-2050)

42

85

Australia (1938-2037)

Chile (1999-2041)

From 14 percent to 21 percent

18

17 12 11 9

157

125

99 89

80

58

42 38 37 34

27

Sources: Kinsella and Gist, 1995; U.S. Census Bureau, 2013 International Data Base, 2014 National Population Projections.

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Young Children and Older People as a Percentage of Global Population: 1950 to 2050 (In percent) 18

16

14

Under 5 12

10

8

65 and over

6

4

2

0 1950

1960

1970

1980

1990

2000

2010

2020

2030

2040

2050

Source: United Nations, World Population Prospects: The 2012 Revision.

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Causes of Population Aging

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Ten Countries With Highest Life Expectancy at Birth in 2015: At Birth, Age 65, and Age 80 by Sex, in 2015 and 2050 (In years) Life Expectancy at Birth 2015 Both sexes

2050

Male Female

Both sexes

Life Expectancy at 65

Life Expectancy at 80

2015

2015

2050

Male Female

Male Female

Male Female

2050

Male Female

Male Female

Japan

84.7

81.4

88.3

91.6

88.4

95.0

20.0

25.2

25.0

30.6

9.4

12.6

12.6

16.8

Singapore

84.7

82.1

87.5

91.6

88.7

94.6

20.6

24.5

25.5

30.3

11.5

12.9

14.1

16.9

Macau

84.5

81.6

87.6

85.1

82.2

88.1

20.2

24.9

20.7

25.3

10.1

13.4

10.5

13.8

Hong Kong

82.9

80.2

85.8

84.4

81.6

87.4

18.9

23.1

20.1

24.6

8.5

10.9

9.8

12.8

Switzerland

82.5

80.2

84.9

84.2

81.6

87.0

19.0

22.4

20.1

24.3

8.4

10.4

9.7

12.6

Australia

82.2

79.7

84.7

84.1

81.4

86.9

19.0

22.5

20.1

24.3

8.9

11.0

9.9

12.8

Italy

82.1

79.5

84.9

84.1

81.3

87.0

18.6

22.4

20.0

24.3

8.7

10.7

9.8

12.7

Sweden

82.0

80.1

84.0

84.0

81.5

86.6

18.6

21.5

20.0

23.9

7.9

9.8

9.5

12.3

Canada

81.8

79.2

84.5

83.9

81.1

86.8

18.9

22.7

20.1

24.4

9.4

11.6

10.1

13.0

France

81.8

78.7

85.0

83.9

80.9

87.0

18.9

22.9

20.0

24.5

8.6

10.8

9.7

12.7

Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2013 International Data Base, unpublished lifetables.

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Total Fertility Rate by World Region: 2015, 2030, and 2050 4.4

2015

2030

2050

3.5

Replacement Level (2.1)

2.8

2.1

2.1

2.0 1.9

1.9 1.6

Africa

Asia

2.0

1.6

1.7

Europe

2.0 2.0

2.0 1.8

1.8

Latin America and the Caribbean

2.2

Northern America

Oceania

Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2013 International Data Base.

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Ten Countries With Lowest Total Fertility Rate in 2015: 2015, 2030, and 2050 (In years)

2015

2030

Singapore Macau Taiwan Hong Kong Korea, South Bosnia and Herzegovina Lithuania Ukraine Romania Poland

0.8 0.9 1.1 1.2 1.3

China India United States

2050 1.0 1.0 1.2 1.3 1.4

1.3 1.3 1.3 1.3 1.3

Singapore Macau Taiwan Hong Kong Korea, South Bosnia and Herzegovina Lithuania Ukraine Romania Poland

1.2 1.1 1.3 1.4 1.5

1.5 1.5 1.4 1.5 1.5

Singapore Macau Taiwan Hong Kong Korea, South Bosnia and Herzegovina Lithuania Ukraine Romania Poland

1.6 2.5 2.0

China India United States

1.6 2.2 2.0

China India United States

1.7 2.1 2.0

1.7 1.7 1.6 1.7 1.7

Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2013 International Data Base.

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Population Age Structure

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Population by Age and Sex in China: 2015 and 2050 (In millions)

2015

2050

Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2013 International Data Base.

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Population by Age and Sex in the United States: 1970 and 2010 (In millions)

Baby Boom

2010

1970 85 and over

85 and over

80 to 84

80 to 84

75 to 79

75 to 79 Female

Male

70 to 74 65 to 69

65 to 69

60 to 64

60 to 64

55 to 59

55 to 59

50 to 54

50 to 54

45 to 49

45 to 49

40 to 44

40 to 44

35 to 39

35 to 39

30 to 34

30 to 34

25 to 29

25 to 29

20 to 24

20 to 24

15 to 19

15 to 19

10 to 14

10 to 14

5 to 9

5 to 9

0 to 4

0 to 4 20

10

0

10

Male

70 to 74

20

15

10

Female

5

0

5

10

15

Sources: U.S. Census Bureau, 1970 and 2010 censuses.

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Population by Age and Sex in the United States: 2030 and 2050 (In millions)

Baby Boom

2050 85 and over 80 to 84

Male

Female

75 to 79 70 to 74 65 to 69 60 to 64 55 to 59 50 to 54 45 to 49 40 to 44 35 to 39 30 to 34 25 to 29 20 to 24 15 to 19 10 to 14 5 to 9 0 to 4 15

10

5

0

5

10

15

Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2012 National Population Projections, Middle series.

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Population by Age Group for China and India: 2015, 2030, and 2050 (In millions) 1800 1600 1400 1200 65+

1000

15-64 0-14

800 600 400 200 0 China

India

China

2015

India

2030

China

India

2050

Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2013 International Data Base.

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Societal Support Burden

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Dependency Ratios for the World: 2015 to 2050 100 Youth dependency ratio 90

Older dependency ratio

80 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 0 2015

2020

2025

2030

2035

2040

2045

2050

Sources: U.S. Census Bureau, 2013 International Data Base.

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Dependency Ratios for the United States: 1980 to 2050 100 Youth dependency ratio 90

Older dependency ratio

80 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 0 1980

1990

2000

2010

2020

2030

2040

2050

Sources: U.S. Census Bureau, decennial censuses and 2012 National Population Projections, Middle series.

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Healthy Aging

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Life Expectancy (LE) and Healthy Life Expectancy (HALE) at Age 65 by Sex for Selected European Countries: 2012 (In years)

HALE

LE with activity limitations

HALE

LE with activity limitations

France Finland Portugal Austria Germany Sweden

Female

Male

Slovenia Norway Netherlands Greece United Kingdom Estonia Denmark Poland Croatia Slovakia Romania -30.0

-20.0

-10.0

0.0

10.0

20.0

30.0

Source: European Commission, 2014 Eurostat.

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Living Arrangement of Population Aged 65 and Over With a Disability in the United States: 2008-2012 (In percent)

Household living alone Total

29.9

65 to 74

20.2

4.8

62.0

37.7

Female

9.2

70.8

30.0

85 and over

Group quarters

60.9

24.4

75 to 84

Male

Household living with others

45.0 73.0

36.6

8.0 17.4 6.8

52.6

10.8

White

30.5

60.2

9.3

Black

31.4

58.4

10.3

Asian Hispanic Not Hispanic

14.8

80.0

21.1

5.2

73.5 30.6

59.9

5.4 9.5

Source: U.S. Census Bureau, American Community Survey, 5-year estimates, 2008-2012.

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Summary and Discussion •

The world population is aging rapidly and the pace of aging will continue to accelerate in the next few decades.

•

A distinct feature of global population aging is its uneven speed across regions and countries.

•

Asia leads world regions in speed of aging and size of older population.

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Summary and Discussion (cont.)

•

The U.S. older population will almost double by 2050 although its aging pace is expected to be slower than some countries.

•

The rapid reduction of fertility rates and extended life expectancy shifted the societal support ratio towards the older population.

•

Older Americans with a disability vary in living arrangements and geographic distribution.

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Aging is Reshaping Our World

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www.census.gov www.census.gov/population/international /data/idb/informationGateway.php

wan.he@census.gov This study is supported under an interagency agreement with the Division of Behavioral and Social Research, National Institute on Aging, U.S. National Institutes of Health.

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