Marketing Fundamentals & Trends in Senior Housing

Market Fundamentals & Trends in Senior Housing Chuck Harry Chief of Research & Analytics, NIC

Beth Mace Chief Economist, NIC

2017 Argentum Senior Living Executive Conference & Expo Tuesday, May 2, 2017 | Nashville, TN Copyright Š2017 National Investment Center for Seniors Housing & Care (NIC). All rights reserved. Data believed to be accurate but not guaranteed; subject to future revision. This report is a part of the NIC MAPŽ Data Service (NIC MAP). Distribution of this report or any part of this report without prior written consent or license by NIC is prohibited. Subject to the NIC Terms of Use. For license information please contact NIC at 410-267-0504.

Today’s Presentation

1. Macroeconomic Trends and Patterns 2. Capital Markets and Recent Transactions Trends 3. Seniors Housing Supply-Demand Trends 4. Seniors Housing Supply-Demand Outlook

2

The Economic Backdrop: Boom or Collapse?

Source: Cartoon Bank

3

Relatively Strong Employment Gains…

Monthly Employment Gains (000s) U.S. | 2004 – March 2017 300 200

169

208

174

173

95

100

179

199

241

226

187

178 98

88

0 -100 -200

-300

-298

-400 -422

-500 2004

Source: BLS 4

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

YTD Mar-17 2017

…But Weak Labor Force Participation…

U.S. Labor Force Participation Rate and Unemployment Rate for Discouraged Workers (U-6) 1970 – 2017 68

20 18 16 14 12 10 8 6 4 2 0

66 64 62 60 58 56 Jan- Jul- Jan- Jul- Jan- Jul- Jan- Jul- Jan- Jul- Jan- Jul- Jan- Jul- Jan- Jul- Jan- Jul- Jan70 72 75 77 80 82 85 87 90 92 95 97 00 02 05 07 10 12 15 Participation Rate (Left) Long-term Average LFPR (64.6%, Left) Unemployment Rate Discouraged & Part-time Workers (Right) Long-Term Average U6 (10.9%, Right) Source: BLS 5

…And Weak GDP Growth During This Expansion Expansion Comparison—GDP, Jobs, Length of Time (months) 1975 - 2016 5.0% 4.5%

4.30%

4.40%

300

4.30% 240

3.60%

4.0% 3.5%

2.80%

3.0%

2.10% 180

2.5%

120

2.0% 1.5%

60

1.0% 0.5%

0

0.0% 1975-1980 (36 months)

1980-1981 (12 months)

1982-1990 (92 months)

1991-2001 (120 months)

2001-2007 (73 months)

Average Annual Job Gains (000s, right) Average Annual Real GDP Growth (left) Source: BLS, BEA, Commerce Department 6

2009-2016 (87 months)

Very Weak Productivity Growth Labor Productivity (Output Per Hour, Percentage Change from Previous Quarter at Annual Rate, 5-Year Moving Average) 1975 - 2016 4.00 3.50 3.00 2.50 2.00 1.50 1.00 0.50

1970Q1 1971Q2 1972Q3 1973Q4 1975Q1 1976Q2 1977Q3 1978Q4 1980Q1 1981Q2 1982Q3 1983Q4 1985Q1 1986Q2 1987Q3 1988Q4 1990Q1 1991Q2 1992Q3 1993Q4 1995Q1 1996Q2 1997Q3 1998Q4 2000Q1 2001Q2 2002Q3 2003Q4 2005Q1 2006Q2 2007Q3 2008Q4 2010Q1 2011Q2 2012Q3 2013Q4 2015Q1 2016Q2

0.00

Source: BEA, Moody’s Analytics, U.S. Department of Labor 7

Looking Ahead, CBO Projects Slower Long-term GDP Growth Percent Contribution to Potential GDP Growth 1950 – 2026 4.5

4.0%

4.0 3.5 3.0

2.4

2.5

1.7%

1.9%

2.0 1.5 1.0

1.2

1.4

0.5

0.5

2017-2020

2021-2027

1.6

0.5 0.0 1950-1973

Labor Force Growth Source: CBO, U.S. Department of Labor 8

Productivity Growth

Since the Election, Soft Versus Hard Data Are At Odds

Soft Data (Sentiment)

9

Hard Data (Realized, Actual Data)

• Consumer confidence Indices (Conference Board, Bloomberg, U of Mich.)

• Young versus old • Republican versus Democrat

• Stock market up 10% postelection through early March

• Inflation expectations waning

• Treasury yields rise and then fall

• Business confidence: NFIB Survey of Small Business

• First quarter GDP slows to 1% • Sluggish retail sales, flat vehicle sales

Consumer Confidence Has Increased Since Election The Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index (1985 = 100, SA) U.S. | January 2011 – April 2017 160

Post Election

140 120 100 80 60 40 20

Consumer Confidence Index, (Index 1985=100, SA) Consumer Confidence Index: Expectations Source: Conference Board, Moody’s Analytics 10

Jan-17

Sep-16

May-16

Jan-16

Sep-15

May-15

Jan-15

Sep-14

May-14

Jan-14

Sep-13

May-13

Jan-13

Sep-12

May-12

Jan-12

Sep-11

May-11

Jan-11

0

Consumer Confidence Index: Present Situation

Fed’s Mandate: Full Employment, Moderate Inflation Unemployment Rate, Inflation Deflator and Fed Funds Rate 2007 – Q1 2017 12

6

10

5

8

4

6

3

4

2

2

1

0

0

Unemployment Rate (Left, %) Source: BLS, Commerce Department, Moody’s Analytics 11

Fed Funds Rate (Right, %)

Price Deflator (Left, %)

A Rising Interest Rate Environment?

Yield Curve for U.S. Treasuries 2016 Q1– 2018 Q1 4.0 3.5 3.0 2.5 2.0 1.5 1.0

0.5 0.0 3-Month 6-Month

1-Year

2-Year

2016Q1 Source: Moody’s Analytics

12

3-Year

5-Year

2017Q1

7-Year

2018Q1

10-Year

20-Year

30-Year

While Sluggish, This Expansion Has Been Long HISTORY OF U.S. RECESSIONS AND EXPANSIONS Recessions

Duration (Months)

Expansions

Duration (Months)

1945

8

1945-48

37

1948-1949

11

1949-53

45

1953-54

10

1954-57

39

1957-58

8

1958-60

24

1960-61

10

1961-69

106

1970

11

1970-73

36

1973-75

16

1975-80

58

1980

6

1980-81

12

1981-82

16

1982-90

92

1990-91

8

1991-2001

120

2001

8

2001-07

73

2008-09

18

2009-

93

Average 1945-2009 Source: NBER

13

11

58

Recent Recessions Have Been Preceded by Fed Tightening Fed Funds Rate and Recessions U.S. | 1962– 2016 20 18 16 14 12 10 8

6 4 2

Recession Source: NBER, Federal Reserve, HFE

14

Fed Funds Rate

2016Q1

2014Q1

2012Q1

2010Q1

2008Q1

2006Q1

2004Q1

2002Q1

2000Q1

1998Q1

1996Q1

1994Q1

1992Q1

1990Q1

1988Q1

1986Q1

1984Q1

1982Q1

1980Q1

1978Q1

1976Q1

1974Q1

1972Q1

1970Q1

1968Q1

1966Q1

1964Q1

1962Q1

0

Yield Curve Inversions Lead Recessions Yield Curve Differential Between 10-Year Treasury Yield and 3-month Treasury 1962Q1– 2016Q4 4 3 2 1 0 -1 -2

Recession Source: NBER, Federal Reserve, Moody’s Analytics

15

Yield Curve Differential

Top Themes for Capital Markets and Transactions 1Q 2017

1. Quarterly transaction volume increased significantly in 1Q 2017 2. Publicly-traded buyers were less active 3. Seniors housing price per unit remains near recent peak

16

Closed Seniors Housing & Care Dollar Volume: $4.4Bn for 1Q17 Seniors Housing & Care Transactions Volume1 U.S. | 1Q08 – 1Q17

1. Preliminary Data Source: NIC MAP® Data Service, RCA

17

Buyer Type Shifting as Public Buyers’ Share Continues to Fall Closed Transactions Seniors Housing & Care Volume by Buyer Type1 U.S. | 1Q2008 – 1Q2017

1. Preliminary Data Source: NIC MAP® Data Service, RCA

18

Seniors Housing Pricing Rises Toward Recent Peak Seniors Housing & Care Transactions Rolling 4-Quarter Price Per Unit1 U.S. | 1Q08 – 1Q17

1. Preliminary Data Source: NIC MAP® Data Service, RCA

19

Top Themes for Seniors Housing Supply-Demand Trends 1Q 2017 1. Seniors housing occupancy fell 30 basis points to 89.3% 2. Annual inventory growth reached fastest pace since at least 2006 3. Construction as a share of inventory remains high 4. Relatively severe flu season may have affected demand 5. Annual same-store rent growth decelerated, but remained strong 6. Assisted living occupancy fell to its lowest level since early 2010

20

Seniors Housing Occupancy Declines Seniors Housing Fundamentals Primary Markets | 1Q06-1Q17

Absorption Stabilized Occupancy

6000

94%

5000

92%

4000

90%

3000

88%

2000

86%

1000

84%

0

82%

-1000

80%

-2000

78% 2006

2007

2008

Source: NIC MAP® Data Service

21

Inventory Growth All Occupancy

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

Relatively Severe Flu Season May Have Affected Demand

Source: Center for Disease Control (CDC)

22

Half of Assisted Living’s Occupancy Decline Likely Seasonal Assisted Living Stabilized Occupancy Seasonally Adjusted Primary Markets | 1Q06 – 1Q17 92%

91% 91% 90%

Seasonally Adjusted

90% Stabilized Occupancy

89% 89% 88% 2006

2007

2008

Source: NIC MAP® Data Service

23

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

Annual Inventory Growth Outpacing Annual Absorption Annual Inventory Growth Rate and Annual Absorption Primary Markets | 1Q06 - 1Q17 Independent Living Annual Inventory Growth

5%

Annual Absorption

4% 3% 2% 1% 0% -1%

Assisted Living 5% 4% 3% 2% 1% 0% -1% 2007

2008

2009

Source: NIC MAP® Data Service

24

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

Where Did Inventory Growth Occur During the Last 4 Qtrs.?

Seniors Housing Annual Inventory Growth Primary & Secondary Markets | As of 1Q17

Source: NIC MAP® Data Service

25

Supply and Demand Balances and Imbalances by Market Seniors Housing Supply-Demand Primary Markets | As of 1Q17

Source: NIC MAPÂŽ Data Service

26

Twenty-Two Markets Down, Eight Up, One Flat Year-Over-Year Seniors Housing Occupancy by Metro Market Primary Markets | As of 1Q17

Occupancy Range (4Q05 - 1Q17) Current Quarter Occupancy Year Ago Occupancy

100%

95%

90%

85%

Source: NIC MAP® Data Service

27

SA

HOU

LV

RIV

DAL

ATL

CLE

KC

MIA

DEN

CHI

ORL

PHO

TAM

MAP31

MIN

PHI

CIN

SD

SEA

SF

BOS

PIT

STL

DET

POR

LA

NY

DC

SAC

BAL

75%

SJ

80%

Construction as a Share of Inventory Remains High Spaces Under Construction and Construction as Percent of Inventory Primary Markets | 1Q06 - 1Q17 Independent Living 24,000

12%

Spaces Under Construction (L)

20,000

10%

Construction as % of Inventory (R)

16,000

8%

12,000

6%

8,000

4%

4,000

2%

0

0%

Assisted Living 24,000

12%

20,000

10%

16,000

8%

12,000

6%

8,000

4%

4,000

2% 0%

0 2006

2007

2008

Source: NIC MAP® Data Service

28

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

29 Markets Have > 10% AL Inventory Under Construction Majority AL Construction Primary & Secondary Markets | As of 1Q17

Source: NIC MAP® Data Service

29

IL Construction Concentrated in Fewer Markets Than AL Majority IL Construction Primary & Secondary Markets | As of 1Q17

Source: NIC MAP® Data Service

30

Annual Same-Store Rent Growth Decelerated But Still Strong Assisted Living Employees

Annual Asking Rent Growth / Avg. Hourly Earnings* All Markets | 4Q06 – 1Q17

Asking Rent - Assisted Living Asking Rent - Independent Living

6% 5% 4% 3% 2% 1% 0% -1% -2% 2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

*Wage data as of 4Q16 Source: NIC MAPÂŽ Data Service, U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics

31

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

Top Themes for Seniors Housing Supply-Demand Outlook 1Q 2017 1. Occupancy plateauing for independent living 2. Occupancy being pressured lower in assisted living 3. Robust construction activity for assisted living

4. Construction pipelines less active in independent living, but picking up 5. Metro area performance will vary considerably due to local market supply and demand conditions

32

AL Occupancy Forecasted to Remain Pressured Assisted Living Supply-Demand Forecast Primary Markets | 1Q06 – 1Q18’F 4,500

Inventory Growth (L) Absorption (L) Occupancy (R) 95% Forecast

4,000

94%

3,500

93%

3,000

92%

2,500

91%

2,000

90%

1,500

89%

1,000

88%

500

87%

0

86%

-500

85%

-1,000

84%

2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 Source: NIC MAP® Data Service

33

IL Occupancy Rate Forecasted to Remain Flat

4,500

Inventory Growth (L) Absorption (L) Occupancy (R) 95%

4,000

94%

3,500

93%

3,000

92%

2,500

91%

2,000

90%

1,500

89%

1,000

88%

500

87%

0

86%

-500

85%

-1,000

84%

Independent Living Supply-Demand Forecast Primary Markets | 1Q06 – 1Q18’F

Forecast

2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 Source: NIC MAP® Data Service

34

Tuesday, September 26 to Thursday, September 28 Registration Opens: June 6

Early Bird Deadline: August 1

35

National Investment Center for Seniors Housing & Care (NIC) www.nic.org | 410-267-0504