report
●● As general elections are planned in May 2019, public protests and political rallies are likely to increase across India. Protest by farmers and minority groups over reservations policies in several states are also likely to escalate. Further, political rallies before elections are likely to impact business operations.
Technological Risks
I
n 2015, the GOI introduced the Digital India program, bringing to focus an approach that resulted in over 500 million internet users in the country. This has led to major cybersecurity issues in the country. In 2018, India was the 4th most cyber attacked country in the world. According to the Ministry of Electronics and Information Technology, the maximum number of cyber-attacks were carried out by China (35%), US (17%), Russia (15%) and Pakistan (09%) in just three months (April-June 2018). In 2018, 15,779 Indian websites were hacked. India’s Cosmos Bank lost nearly INR944 million through simultaneous withdrawals across 28 countries after the bank’s systems were hacked. In 2019, the situation is further likely to deteriorate with the increase in internet accessibility and with the rise in vulnerable cyber blind-spots in businesses. With general elections planned in India in 2019, data breach and other cyber-attacks might be used to influence election results.
Technology Risks Comparative Risk Rating Digital Currency
2019 2018 2017
Government data Vulnerability
2019 2018 2017
Government Cyber-Surveillance
2019 2018 2017
Mega Data Breach
e
2019 2018 2017
State-sponsored commercial cyber espionage Ransomware & Malware Threats to Data Privacy
o cy
2019 2018 2017 2019 2018 2017 2019 2018 2017
Cyber Insurance
2019 2018 2017
Internet of Things (IoT) and Artificial Intelligence (AI) Critical Infrastructure
2019 2018 2017 2019 2018 2017
5
VERY LOW
LOW
MEDIUM
HIGH
VERY HIGH
What to expect in 2019
2
018 for India has been a tumultuous year with a declining rupee value, political campaigns for state elections, acute pressure on resources due to the occurrence of natural hazards, rising tension in the border, and protests by several traders, political parties and farmers’ unions. The economy grew by 8.2% year-on-year in the first quarter of fiscal year 2018/19 (April-March), driven by an upswing in household demand. In the coming quarters, rising interest rates, currency volatility and higher inflation adversely affecting consumer purchasing power will weigh on growth. The pace of the real GDP is likely to decelerate slightly in the remainder of 2018-19. Meanwhile, campaigning by political parties will intensify ahead of the general elections. ●● Civil disturbances and protests are likely to continue unabated in 2019 due to political rallies, campaigns, security threats, protests and poll violence. Political violence over the issues of Ram temple, reservations for minority groups, and farmers loan waiver promises. ●● Separatist violence in Jammu & Kashmir is also likely to increase due to high militant recruitments and rising border tension. The security forces are likely to retain control over the insurgency in northeast India and Maoist affected areas in central and western India. ●● The gross domestic product (GDP) growth rate is forecast to remain over 7.5%, however, the improvement in the currency value is likely to slow down due to the strengthening of the US dollar (USD). The ease of doing business in India is likely to improve in 2019 due to several business friendly policies that have been implemented in 2017 and 2018. ●● Climate change in 2019 is a major concern for the country with very heavy rainfall in the monsoon and extremely high temperatures during summers causing loss of workdays and hampering business continuity. Due to the climate change in the Indian Ocean and Bay of Bengal, severe cyclones, floods and landslides are likely along India’s coastline. Dust storms and air pollution also would be of major concern for the citizens of northern India. Overall, the outlook for businesses in India for 2019 with respect to civil risks would depend on the outcome of the upcoming general elections. Businesses are likely to face day-to-day challenges of civil disturbances and the manifestations of climate change which are expected to escalate in 2019.
he likelihood of risks and their impact on the conduct of business. This rating may differ SecurityLink India ■ March 2019 one business to the other.
69