The The ICISA ICISA INSIDER INSIDER || October October 2020 2020
Navigating the Risks to Economic Recovery in 2021 By Rajiv Biswas, Asia-Pacific Chief Economist, IHS Markit
Summary The global economy is showing early signs of economic recovery in the second half of 2020, after severe lockdowns in Q2 2020 triggered deep economic contraction in the GDP of many of the world’s largest economies during the first half of 2020. The outlook for 2021 is for a year of gradual economic recovery and a return to positive economic growth for the world economy. However new waves of Covid-19 cases in many countries in recent months are creating renewed uncertainties about the traction of economic recovery. Meanwhile governments are adopting fragmented and divergent policy approaches to tackling the pandemic. Some nations continue to impose closed borders with bans on foreigners, some have significantly reopened borders for international travel, while others have followed a more traditional epidemiological approach to managing the pandemic without severe lockdown measures. In addition to the ongoing risks to global growth from the Covid-19 pandemic, other key risks still loom ahead in 2021, including the risk of a Hard Brexit for the UK, the policy implications of the outcome of the US elections in November 2020, and the potential further escalation of the US-China trade war.
Rajiv Biswas Asia-Pacific Chief Economist IHS Markit ||
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