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MAY 2013 VOL. 24, NO. 5 | www.chinaeconomicreview.com

数字阅读浪潮

Illustrator: Chen Leilei

融合与变革 徒步穿越中国

Digital Consumers Mice Now: CHINA’S SPOT TO MEET

2013年5月刊


EDITOR'S NOTE | 编者的话 MAY 2013 VOL. 24, NO. 5 | www.chinaeconomicreview.com

2013年5月刊

字出版风起云涌,数字阅读浪潮势不可挡。传统印刷机构怎样 走向数字化运营?数字出版企业面临怎样的挑战和竞争?个中

数字阅读浪潮

的佼佼者,将如何应对新技术平台和新商业模式的冲击?

融合与变革 徒步穿越中国

国际传媒业近年来呈现四大发展趋势,即跨地域、跨媒体、品牌 化和新技术。国内传统媒体开始认清新媒体的力量,尝试通过跨媒体的 融合与变革来应对挑战。但无论怎样转型,内容才是媒体的生命力所 在。新媒体有别于传统媒体之处在于,用户不再是被动的信息接受者, 他们可以主动参与互动,甚而成为内容的原创者。

Illustrator: Chen Leilei

尼葛洛庞帝在《数字化生存》中预言,数字化时代的权利将更分 散,普通民众将分享到更多的权利。而从传播角度看,也就意味着话语

Digital Consumers Mice Now: CHINA'S SPOT TO MEET

权很难被垄断。 “传输信息的电力媒介急剧改变着我们的印刷文化,其急剧程度 和印刷术改变中世纪的手写本文化和学术文化的程度一样。”麦克卢汉 在《理解媒介》中断言。印刷术传播到西方后,极大地推动了欧洲的文 艺复兴。而今天,印刷文化向数字化的嬗变,会给印刷术的故乡带来怎

Executive Editor 主编 Liu Chen Deputy Executive Editor 副主编 Philip Liu Editor-at-large 出版人 Graham Earnshaw Editors 编辑 Brenda Yang, Deng Dan China Economic Review, English Editor 编辑 Ana Swanson

Managing editor 责任编辑

Staff writer 撰稿人

Don Weinland

Interns 助理

Sam Reynolds

Jake Spring

Art Editors 美术编辑 Jason Wong

Sales Director 销售总监 Pierre Zolghadri

Account Managers 销售经理 Allen Xu, Ralph Wang, Lolita Bian,

Riikka Koponen

样的明天?

Distribution Manager 发行经理 Seana Liu Publisher 出版机构 China Economic Review Publishing Address 地址 The Plaza Building, 102 Lee High Road

London, SE13 5PT, England

T

his issue of China Economic Review examines the rise of the internet and technology as an engine of Chinese com-

merce. The internet has exploded in the mainland during the last decade, with now more than half a billion users. But many companies have lagged in making money off of this rise. In our cover story, we look at how online advertisers can no longer rely on the steadily climbing user numbers but must become smarter about the way they advertise. The issue further considers how e-commerce sellers must expand to mobile devices and how Taobao must come to terms with its maturity in the form of paying taxes. These tough challenges demand innovative solutions, and China Economic Review also considers the state of Chinese innovation. Innovation is out there; China need only determine how to tap into it.

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May 2013

03


目录 CONTENT

6

22

封面故事 数字阅读浪潮

13

新观察

The House View

6 一个世纪的决斗

7 A failure to meet expectations

8 聚焦

Month in Review 10 Newsbriefs

专栏 12 它山之石可攻玉 16 跨越式发展

32

Column 14 The food thing 18 Paul French’s diary

封面故事 Report

23 数字出版直面挑战

20 Fear and molting

32 融合与变革

52 Big boys’ toys

40 新媒体营销有方

60 Coming up short

访谈 46 乐享游艇生活

04

May 2013

50

62 Innovation nation? 64 Anatomy of a Chinese city


目录 CONTENT

37

28

Cover Story Digital Consumers China’s digital advertisers need to grow up instead of just growing fast

49

理财

Cover Story

50 另类投资的春天

28 Digital Consumers 36 Mobilizing the masses

焦点 俄罗斯

38 Taxing Taobao

54 剖解中俄关系

Interview

公司 58 房企谋突破

60

48 A China moment

Spotlight: Russia

话题 66 苏东坡买房

56 Mr Xi goes to Moscow

看中国

Looking at China

68 命运

68 An article fated to exist

生活·晏子西游记 70 下山的路

69

Travel Journal 71 Potato!

May 2013

05


新观察

一个世纪的决斗 自由放任与政府干预之间的决斗还在继续 文 | 谢祥

术界有很多值得大家争议的问题, 譬如,在哲学领域,两千多年来哲

学家一些都在试图给哲学下一个明确的定 义;在管理学领域,管理学家也在不断分 析管理者与领导者的区别是什么;在经济 学领域,这个最伟大的问题则属于政府干 预与自由放任之间的争议。 争议的双方是凯恩斯主义和自由放 任主义。凯恩斯主义的创始人是英国经济 学家凯恩斯,他在货币学、宏观经济学的 建树和影响甚大。他反对一些自由放任的 经济政策,颠覆了以马歇尔新古典经济学 自由放任学说的观点,提倡国家干预,实 现赤字财政政策,增加政府支出,以公共 投资的增量来弥补私人投资的不足。他认 为,经济危机产生的原因是因为投资者没

势不两立的凯恩斯与哈耶克

有投资信息所导致,因此主张政府对经济 活动进行干预,以刺激消费,主要措施是

争议之间的差异分析经济政策选择与经济

都变成凯恩斯主义者了。连美国的右派也

加大基础设施的建设。他甚至认为,如果

环境的关系。凯恩斯提出政府干预是出于

加入到了凯恩斯主义的阵营中,他们都充

有必要的话,发动战争也可以达到目的。

消费不足,而哈耶克则深受通货膨胀的伤

满了无限的热情,这在以前根本是无法想

害,再加上当时集权主义领导下的经济落

象的。”这一年,奥巴马接下布什的烂摊

后从而使他更相信自由方能解救社会。

子,实施了7870亿美元经济刺激计划。

凯恩斯主义的对立者是哈耶克,他的 学说似乎与他的性格很相似,温文尔雅。

06

他所提倡的自由主义是彻底的经济自由主

争议之所以持续长达一个世纪,是因

凯恩斯主义并不仅在英国、美国,在

义,他反对社会主义、反对计划经济,他

为两者的实力相当。上世纪30年代,经济

中国,也有很大的市场。2008年,中国政

认为计划经济会导致政府集权,从而导致

大萧让美国政府焦头烂额,罗斯福总统采

府决定投资4万亿人民币以刺激经济,并

人民走向奴役的道路。哈耶克除了在经济

用了凯恩斯的经济政策从而让美国人民脱

先后提出了家电下乡、汽车下乡等经济政

学有很大成就之外,在哲学、法学等多个

离苦海。到了上世纪40年代,战争年代,

策。约瑟夫·斯蒂格利茨就笑言“中国是

领域也有很大的影响力,凯恩斯甚至说

政府干预过多,集权主义导致人民走向奴

凯恩斯经济学的最好学生”。

“哈耶克研究经济学也许是个错误”。

役道路,从而敲响了资本主义的警钟。一

似乎看来,凯恩斯主义是金融危机的

尽管凯恩斯和哈耶克相继去世,但并

直到上世纪70年代,石油危机下,凯恩

救心丸,然后笔者并不这么认为。以中国

不意味着争议结束,一个世纪以来,自由

斯主义受到了质疑,接着该自由主义登场

房地产行业为类,中央政府试图调控房价

放任与政府干预之间的决斗还在继续。

了。撒切尔夫人和里根总统采用了哈耶克

的涨幅度,但是每次调控恰恰相反,十年

在《凯恩斯大战哈耶克》中,作者

的经济政策,哈耶克的继承者将自由主义

调控期间,部分一线城市房价上涨2倍以

首先以历史学的角度回顾哈耶克向凯恩斯

发扬光大。然而,这并不意味着哈耶克取

上,甚至3倍,市场反应并不以政府干预

借书的借口开始,然后两人从相遇到批评

得了最终胜利。

的为转移。造成房价上升的原因很多,货

凯恩斯《货币论》,引出了自由放任与政

2008年金融危机在美国爆发,进而

币贬值是其中之一,货币贬值的原因很简

府干预之间的争议,期间有双方的支持者

传播到世界各地。自由放任经济政策受到

单,发行过量,为什么发行过量?国家不

加入。实际上,作者想要表达的并不仅仅

质疑,凯恩斯主义卷土而来。经济学家约

停地开动印钞机,当然这也是凯恩斯主义

是这些经济学上的花边新闻,而是想通过

瑟夫.斯蒂格利茨撰文说:“现在我们大家

的政策之一。

May 2013


THE HOUSE VIE W

A failure to meet expectations Disappointing first-quarter GDP figures point to a Chinese growth model growing ever less sustainable

T

hey thought the worst was behind us. China reversed nearly two years of slowing economic growth to close out 2012, and economists widely expected growth to continue to strengthen in the first three months of this year. Backed by expanded credit and rising exports, those predictions appeared to be fairly safe bets. But the National Bureau of Statistics dashed these hopes, reporting that headline GDP growth sank to 7.7% in the first quarter, down from 7.9% in the fourth quarter and missing economists’ consensus expectations of 8% growth. Markets reacted quickly and negatively. Much of the decline in growth can be put down to a drop in industrial production, a sign that the current industrial- and investment-driven growth model is flagging. IP fell to 8.9% year-over-year in March from 9.9% in January and February. (Economists use the two-month period to offset Chinese New Year distortions.) Output of power, cement and a variety of metals declined – all integral components of China’s current manufacturing- and infrastructure-oriented growth model. In a note following the data release, economists at investment bank BBVA attributed the slowing GDP growth to lacking domestic demand and companies that are hesitant to invest. Companies may have held off on investing as

they waited to see what policies Beijing might enact to curb housing purchases and shadow banking. Similarly, there is likely some truth to official claims that the still inhospitable global economic climate dragged on China’s growth. That decline in output isn’t necessarily a worrying sign: China needs to rebalance toward consumption, which means rapid industrial growth should come down. But consumption is not growing anywhere near fast enough to power the economy. While retail sales edged up to 12.6% in March from 12.3% for January-February, that growth remains well behind the 20.9% rise in fixed asset investment for the month. Perhaps most concerning is that China may react to disappointing GDP figures by turning to the same policy tools of expanding credit and increasing state spending that it has long used. Ting Lu, China economist for Bank of America Merrill Lynch, noted following the GDP data release that low inflation, coupled with the decline in GDP, could lay the groundwork for supportive monetary policy. Those focused on growth in the immediate term may cheer these moves, but such policies could damage the long-term sustainability of the economy by pinning up the industrial growth model beyond its expiration date. Solar and steel provide examples of too much credit actually hurting industries in the long-term by allowing

them to overinvest, leading to overcapacity and inefficiency. Moreover, credit already expanded rapidly in the first quarter, indicating that even if Beijing boosts liquidity further that it may not have the desired effect. State-owned companies, which are the primary recipients of new loans and generally have ample financing, may just be using the newly available credit to make redundant investments, to roll over previous debt or otherwise use the money unproductively. Investors should not concern themselves with slowing GDP growth but instead with its makeup. Headline GDP growth must come down with industrial production and fixed-asset investment as China’s leaders rebalance the economy. If anything, Beijing should devise new policy tools that promote growth through consumption. The government could subsidize the most beneficial consumer purchases, as it has done in the past with energy efficient appliances, for example, rather than funneling money to state-owned companies as it usually does through explicit subsidies or cheap loans. Alternatively, it could offer incentives to develop the service industry. Turning to the same old stimulus measures may pin up GDP growth for the short-term. But such a move will come at the cost of robust, and sustainable, economic growth in the future.

May 2013

07


聚焦

热点 对外投资或达5000亿美元 习近平在2013博鳌亚洲论坛年会发表主 旨演讲时称,今后5年,中国将进口10万 亿美元左右的商品,对外投资规模将达到 5000亿美元,出境旅游有可能超过4亿 人次。

惠誉下调中国信用评级 惠誉将中国长期本币信用评级从AA-降至 A+,理由是担心政府债务膨胀及影子银行 扩张损害金融稳定。这是自1999年以来中 国主权信用评级首次被大型国际评级机构 下调。

人民币升值创新高 4月份人民币对美元中间价不断创新高, 并于4月26日报出6.2208元的高价,这被

国际金价暴跌,各地出现抢购风潮

市场解读为中国央行允许人民币继续升值 的信号。

30年消失2.7万条河流

机)出货量第一,三星与苹果分列第二与

德国《世界报》网站指出,近30年前的

第三。

雅安地震直接经济损失待核查

官方统计结果显示,中国拥有5万多条流

四川雅安市芦山县于4月20日8时发生7.0

域面积超过100平方公里的河流。而据近

166家企业撤回上市申请

级地震。三个重灾县芦山、宝兴、天全县

期公开的《第一次全国水利普查公报》披

清科研究中心根据证监会数据统计,截至4

4月25日公布高达1693亿元的经济损失数

露,已有超过2.7万条河流消失。目前中国

月3日,今年撤销IPO申请企业共166家,

值——至少是其上年度GDP总和的21倍,

40%的河水受到废水污染,20%已完全无

其中VC/PE机构支持企业为63家。目前排

被指有“虚报注水”的嫌疑。民政部称该

法使用。

队申请境内上市的中国企业共计724家,

数值有待评估,国家工作组已赴灾区实地

其中305家有VC/PE支持。

核查。美银美林认为,地震可能仅需100

企业与市场

亿的重建恢复资金。

诺基亚关闭上海旗舰店

联通利润增长远超移动

诺基亚中国内地最大门店—上海南京东

中国移动今年第一季度利润同比增长仅

禽流感直接损失超160亿元

路旗舰店已于4月初关闭。去年已关闭了北

0.3%,几乎停滞。中国联通第一季度实现

禽流感事件发生以来,全国肉鸡和鸡蛋市

京中关村直营店和磁器口旗舰店。诺基亚

净利润18.7亿元人民币,同比增长88.7%。

场需求减少。中国畜牧业协会初步测算,

目前在中国智能手机市场份额已从两年前

业内分析师预计,今明两年中国联通净利

截至4月15日,肉鸡鸡苗直接损失超过37

的50%滑落到1%。分析认为,诺基亚手

润增长仍将保持在50%以上。

亿元,活鸡及鸡肉产品销售损失超过130

机品种不断减少,已难以满足旗舰店展示

亿元。

的需求,也难以支撑高额的运营成本。

8亿美元购60架空客飞机

杨元庆指苹果领导地位动摇

法国总统奥朗德在访华期间称,中法合作

联想集团董事长兼CEO杨元庆称,主要

经济体住房的福利与投资的相互关系建立

不仅局限于核能和航空业,还要在农产

竞争对手已从惠普和戴尔这样的传统PC

分析模型,并通过研究发现,德法长期稳

品、卫生保健等领域开辟新合作项目。空

厂商变成三星、苹果,而苹果的领导地位

定的房地产市场发展模式可为中国房地产

客宣布,在奥朗德访华之际,已与中国签

已动摇。IDC统计显示,去年第四季度,

市场模式转型提供借鉴经验。研究认为,

署了40亿美元购18架A330宽体机和38亿

联想以17.9%的市场份额占中国智能终端

德法房地产模式的共同特点是高福利属

美元购42架A320窄体机的协议。

(智能手机、平板电脑、便携PC以及台式

性。从两国的共同经验来看,合理前瞻性

调查与分析 合理规划助力房市调控

08

May 2013

罗兰贝格对包括中国在内的世界主要


升。就全国平均状态而言,持续的求大于

非标品的扩充。房地产作为中国经济支柱

供是推动价格上涨的重要因素。房地产市

产业之一,也已开始探究在网络营销下的

场供需总量和结构矛盾积累多年,2013年

广告渠道与销售策略并重的营销之道。在

调控难度进一步增大。另外,国内外宽松

多方面市场环境的共同促进下,2011年

货币政策叠加将加大通胀压力,资产保值

初,房产电商平台应运而生。在经历过市

需求将推动人们进入房地产市场,带动地

场的探索期后,国内主流房企纷纷参与到

价上涨。

房产电商市场中来,2013年房产电商市场

从中美房地产的形势比较来看,投资

得到产业链上下游的普遍认可。

中国楼市不如去买美国房地产。从中美房

房产电商企业应充分对目标受众、目

地产的形势比较来看,中国在调控政策的

标市场进行细分,针对房企客户的推广需

影响下,整体来看上涨的空间有限,多呈

求不断开发创新营销产品和服务,减少同

现结构式的机会,且对投资需求有诸多限

质化竞争,增强差异化运营,尤其需注意

制。而美国房地产的上升趋势大致能维持5

的是要能够根据开发商、代理商的特征和

到7年。

需求对营销资源进行整合,包括结合垂直 房产网站、搜索引擎、微博和微信等社交

黄金市场能否重回牛市 今年4月12日和15日等交易日黄金价

元渠道进行整合营销,并与房产电商服务

格出现罕见暴跌,跌幅达15%。现货价格

协同,定制个性化解决方案,将更多的目

4月16日曾跌至1322美元/盎司以下,为

标消费者引到电商平台。

的城市发展规划,完善的住房福利体系,

2011年1月以来最低。从1999/2000年不

发达的租赁市场,健全的税收调控体系,

到300美元/盎司,金价上涨了10多年,至

稳健的地产金融政策,以及长期坚持并落

2011年9月6日曾创出1920.70美元/盎司

实既定的房地产政策是实现房地产市场长

的历史高点。

期稳定发展的关键要素。

媒体、门户网站及其他媒体、客户端等多

中资给德企带来新机遇 德国慕尼黑工业大学(慕尼黑创新集 团)在近期合作研究中发现,近年来,许

近期,中国、日本、印度等国出现抢

多中国公司通过收购德国企业所有或部分

政府应坚持自由市场和政府调控并

购黄金现货的热潮,美国铸币局4月金币销

股权的方式以获取先进技术。但是与最初

行的房地产调控模式,平衡福利与投资属

量也有望创3年来新高。多国央行进场,实

的预期相反,大多数“新东家”对直接将

性的均衡发展;通过科学细致的规划推进

体黄金人气提高。此后几个交易日,价格

新收购公司的技术知识带回中国并不感兴

高质量的城镇化过程;健全房地产税收体

有所回升。截至美国东部时间4月25日,

趣,而是在研发领域开展了富有成效的合

系,加大税收调控力度;加大保障住房体

纽约商品交易所6月份交割的主力黄金期货

作。中国公司将这些投资视为扩大产品组

系的建设;大力发展租赁市场;推行稳健

价格反弹至1462美元/盎司,比前一交易

合、巩固中国市场地位和在欧洲获得长久

的地产金融政策;房企摆脱单纯的房地产

日上涨38.3美元,涨幅达2.69%

立足点的方法。

开发模式,与地方政府合作,成为城市综

国际大投行大多看跌金价,称金市已

三一重工收购了在混凝土泵制造领域

合运营商;结合自身能力,审视市场定

转入熊市。国际投资家罗杰斯预期国际金

领先的德国中型公司普茨迈斯特(Putz-

位,成为细分市场领先者。

价将跌至1200美元/盎司。国际金融协会

meister),以成为世界重型机械领导者。

资本市场与新兴市场政策部主任松扎·吉

联想收购了电子公司麦迪龙(Medion)。

社科院预测今年房价上升

布斯认为,金价未来走势取决于全球政策

潍柴动力则收购了全球最大叉车制造商凯

中国社科院发布2013年《房地产蓝

制定者能否成功激活经济增长,特别是在

傲(Kion)部分股权。近期类似对德国企

皮书》,预计今年房价地价或稳中有升。

中国和发达国家。他预测黄金市场重回牛

业全部或部分股权收购的中国公司还有许

蓝皮书认为,今年房地产开发投资增速将

市的可能性较低,建议投资者采取谨慎投

多。中国公司收购本身并不会构成威胁。

继续保持低位,房地产开发投资增速在

资策略。

而在许多情况下,这些收购对被收购的德

14%左右,略低于去年。住房市场仍存 在较大的刚性需求和改善型需求,在抑制

国企业非常有利。中国投资者雄厚的财力

房地产电商快速发展

投机、支持自住的政策作用下,今年商品

EnfoDesk易观智库研究发现,中国

住宅销售面积将小幅增长,住宅开发投资

电子商务市场经过10多年的快速发展,电

增幅继续保持低位,全年住宅价格稳中有

商品类开始出现由低价向高价,由标品向

有助于它们保住工作岗位和产能、推进技 术开发和获得进入亚洲市场的途径。

(本栏目内容根据公开信息整理)

May 2013

09


MONTH IN RE VIE W

NEWSBRIEFS

10

Shanghai court overturns Soho property purchase

Fitch cuts yuan debt rating

A court overturned Soho China’s US$648 million purchase of a piece of land in downtown Shanghai, a victory for rival developer Fosun International which has been angling to buy to the property. The Shanghai No. 1 Intermediate Court ruled that the previous owners, Greentown China and Zendai Property, had circumvented Fosun’s rights when they agreed to sell 50% of the downtown plot to Soho in December 2011. Fosun owned the other 50% stake and claimed it had the right to make an offer before the deal settled. The huge site is located south of the Bund beside the Huangpu river.

Fitch Ratings downgraded China’s long-term rating for renminbi-denominated debt from “A+” to “AA-” due to concerns over the lack of transparency as lending to local governments rises. Fitch estimates the total amount of credit in China’s economy, including shadow banking, may have hit nearly 200% of GDP by the end of 2012 – an increase from 125% at the end of 2008. According to estimates by former Finance Minister Xiang Huaicheng, local governments in China may have more than US$3.2 trillion (RMB20 trillion) of debt, double the amount reported in 2011 by the National Audit Office.

State asset regulator targets 10% growth rate

Moody’s downgrades China outlook

China’s State-owned Assets Supervision and Administration Commission (SASAC) announced a 10% growth target for state-owned enterprises after many of the companies posted weaker-than-expected first-quarter earnings. Recent quarterly results showed that SOEs grew 7.3% year-on-year, which was short of the minimum 8% growth rate and 10% target required by the state asset regulator. Jiang Jiemin, the new SASAC chairman, said that ensuring stable growth for SOEs is one of Beijing’s top priorities this year. The regulator warned that SOEs faced uncertainty in the macroeconomic recovery.

Moody’s downgraded its outlook on the Chinese economy from “positive” to “stable” while affirming its previous bond rating of Aa3. Moody’s echoed concerns over excessive local government borrowing expressed by competitor Fitch Ratings earlier in the month, when it cut China’s long-term local currency rating from “A+” to “AA-.” “Progress has been less than anticipated in the process of both reducing latent risks by making local government contingent liabilities more transparent and in reining in rapid credit growth; therefore, some of the upward pressure on the Aa3 rating has eased,” the Moody’s report said.

Sichuan earthquake takes small toll on listed companies

China forces iron importers to join trading platform

The deadly earthquake that struck Lushan county in Sichuan province last month had little effect on most listed companies operating in the area. Ninety-one public companies with operations in the quake zone - 55 listed in Shenzhen and 36 in Shanghai - said in statements to the exchanges that no employees were hurt and no assets were damaged. However, eight companies reported significant losses, including Sichuan New Hope Group and China Resources Sanjiu Medical & Pharmaceutical. The magnitude 7.0 quake struck on the morning of April 20, killing at least 188 people and injuring thousands.

Chinese regulators will mandate that iron ore traders use a domestic trading platform in order to receive a license, an effort by Beijing to take more control over prices for the metal. The new rules dictate that traders and steel mills applying for a license must trade more than 551,155 tons of iron on the China Beijing International Mining Exchange (CBMX). The move could boost liquidity at CBMX, which launched its physical trading platform last year. Forcing importers onto the exchange reverses Beijing’s acceptance of an industry-wide shift to spot pricing in 2010 after 40 years of yearly set prices.

May 2013


Xi: Era of fast growth in China is over

China signs first European FTA with Iceland

Chinese President Xi Jinping declared that the era of high growth in China is over, noting that the country “doesn’t want to grow too fast” in a speech to the Boao Forum for Asia. Growth in 2012 was the slowest since 1999 due to a weak global economy and Beijing’s policies to limit rapid growth in certain sectors. Xi said that China is looking to rein in growth to sustainable levels and balance economic prosperity with other issues such as environmental protection. “Realizing those goals will bring vitality and strength to China’s economy,” Xi said at the forum in Hainan.

China entered its first free trade agreement with a European country when it signed a pact with Iceland that will focus on geothermal expertise. Up to 90% of Iceland’s exports to China are marine products, but the deal is expected to boost exports of high-tech green energy products, potentially helping to revive the Icelandic economy after the country’s largest banks defaulted in 2008. The deal comes as China and several other nations look to join a new non-profit organization called the Arctic Circle forum, a venue for discussion on the future of the planet’s northernmost reaches.

Chinese exports miss forecasts

China’s Q1 GDP disappoints at 7.7%

Chinese exports rose 10% in March compared with a year earlier, down from 21.8% growth in February and missing analyst estimates for the first time in four months. Imports rose 14.1% year-on-year in March, increasing the trade deficit to US$880 million. During the announcement, the customs agency refuted claims that the country’s reported export figures have been inflated in recent months.

China’s GDP growth slowed to 7.7% in the first three months of the year, declining from 7.9% in the fourth quarter and missing expectations. Industrial output grew 8.9% year-on-year in March, below expectations of 10%, while retail sales grew 12.6%, slightly faster than the expected 12.5%. In the first quarter, fixed-asset investment rose 20.9% compared to analyst expectations of 21.3%.

May 2013

11


专栏

它山之石可攻玉 从思维和行为方式上向德国学习 文 | 郑新立 中国国际经济交流中心常务副理事长

郑新立

国的宏观调控、财

度在很多方面值得认真研究,有的在操作

因为扩大内需放弃对增加出口的努力。第

政制度、金融体

层面特别需要深入研究。

二,出口要向三个方面转变:要用资本输

制、房地产管理、教育制

德国宏观调控的稳定增长法,我研究

出带动商品劳务输出创造机会,还要实现

度等都非常有特点,而且

了很长时间,想把它移植到中国来,费了

出口的升级转型,从劳动和资源密集型向

非常有效。

很大劲。德国的财政转移支付把很多地方

技术、知识密集型产品升级,类似德国出

德国人与中国人的共

指标算成一个因素。德国的中央银行由议

口深加工的高附加值的产品。另外,从加

同之处,就是喜欢从哲学

会任命,政府管不了。银行就对保持货币

工贸易为主向一般贸易为主转变,外资企

上来思考问题。我们学习

稳定负责。

业在中国实现的出口逐步向以内资企业为

借鉴德国经验时,感到能

德国的双轨制教育跟中国教育不同,

够找到共同语言,特别是

德国三分之二的青少年接受职业教育,在

在接受外国投资方面,德国与美国

到德国(特里尔)那个地方,马克思诞生

德国接受职业教育和学历教育都不觉得低

以及别的欧洲国家不同。最近中国海外投

的地方,中国旅游者去的很多。德国现代

人一等,好多蓝领娶的太太是大学教授,

资成功的案例都在德国,德国人不像美国

管理模式中的很多方面可以看到马克思主

但在中国行不通。

人那么小气,议会出面干预,德国人很聪

义的影响。

德国出口占GDP40%多,中国占

德国模式是社会市场经济,中国是社

20%多。中国经济要从出口驱动型向消

会主义市场经济。中国改革开放30多年,

费驱动型转变,目前出口比重比德国少

还要继续前进,关键在改革。

20%,出口多到底是好事还是坏事?

明、很大度。这是中国与德国合作发展非 常好的基础,以后还会继续合作。 德国城市化非常成熟,现在的数据是 67%的德国人住在小城镇里,上班生活都

中国人与德国人最大的区别是什么?

从德国出口可资借鉴的有两点。第

很方便,不需要住在大城市。我们现在推

比如一个东西掉在地上,大家都去找。中

一利用劳动力丰富的优势扩大出口,不能

动城市化,做不好会走偏,德国的城市化

国人怎么找?中国找一遍,找不着再找一 遍。德国人是把这个地上用粉笔划成方 格,一个方格一个方格找,找完一个方格 用粉笔打一个叉,看起来这种方式慢一 点,但是它不做无用功,最节省时间。在 思维方式和行为方式上,中国人应该向德 国人学习很多东西。 要学习德国人的思维模式,不走极 端,而且善于把个人和企业的积极性与社 会的需要结合起来。政府向德国学习,首 先要从思维方式上学习。会议的程序要严 格规范,讨论问题之前要做好充分的准 备,决策的时候要听取各方面的意见,最 后决策的出发点,一是要考虑到广大民众 的意愿能不能够接受,还要考虑让整个社 会能够保持团结和稳定。

深入研究借鉴 根据我多年的考察和了解,德国的制

12

主的出口转变。因此,还是要扩大出口。

May 2013

三分之二的德国人住在小城镇里


德国的制度在很多方面值得认真研究

模式值得借鉴。

府的重要施政方针。如果今后几年房价大

集中,机会就多。再过20年,这种基本格

德国的住房互助银行,类似中国的住

涨,那是施政失败。会继承上一届的方

局还是很难改变。北京、上海、广州常住

宅互助基金,不买房把钱存在那儿,让别

针,而且会成为基本方针,采取各种措

人口突破2000万,在欧洲就是比较象样的

人用,互助银行带有社会合作性质。德国

施,包括通过供给来稳定价格。还要抑制

国家,瑞典才900多万人,芬兰600万人。

不把住房当成投资投机的对象,也没有房

投机性、投资性的需求,让住房真正用于

北京过去十年每年净增人口50万到60万,

地产泡沫。这个特别要向德国学习。

满足广大居民的居住需要。

再过20年正好1000万。因为中国是13多 亿人口的国家,就会形成这样的大都市

稳定住房价格

合理发展城镇

区。再往后,中国很多都会是世界上没有

住房现在是最乱的行业,我曾经去

很难简单地套用德国模式。我对城镇

的,比如会形成3000万人的大都市区。怎

德国专门考察德国的住房制度,德国的住

化的理解,中国百万人口以上的城市全世

样有效地治理和管理大都市区?这是我们

房制度,社会主义的因素比中国的住房制

界最多,大、中、小城市要合理化发展。

将要面对的新挑战。

度多得多。德国的储蓄银行是二战以后建

但是实证研究,改革开放后人都是往大城

城镇化不是建城,房地产公司听到城

的,孩子生下来后就每个月存钱,一直到

市走,因为有地理的因素。中国平原面积

镇化高兴坏了。我们讲的是人的城镇化,

结婚年龄需要用房子,然后把储蓄的钱全

只有12%,如果搞星罗棋布的小城镇对生

还有两亿六千万人没有实现市民化,20年

部给他,另外再给一倍的贷款。储蓄银行

态环境是不是有利?德国、美洲、澳洲都

后能让这二亿六千万人市民化就不错了。

运转了五六十年,情况非常好,占德国人

是大平原,自然条件比我们好,像他们那

核心是这个。先让已经进城的人市民化,

买房支出的三分之一,储蓄利率非常稳

样铺开,我们不具备条件。而日本的情况

享受市民的待遇。后进城的人的愿望是:

定。房价的稳定支撑了德国市场的稳定,

跟中国有点接近,没有那么多平原。

孩子能不能跟城里孩子一样上学?能不能

市场稳定决定了德国经济的稳定。从近几

其次,与制度因素有关。我们的城

十年看,特别是上世纪50年代以来,德国

市与行政管理体制合而为一,一级城市意

享受相同的公共服务? 苏南沿海地区已经出现了类似德国的

经济没有出现大起大落,非常稳定。应该

味着一级行政管理。比如重庆是直辖市,

城镇化模式,昆山、吴县、张家港、江阴

好好剖析德国的住房政策,会有很好的启

下面还有万州、涪陵,地级市下面还有县

这已经实现了就地城镇化。人还住在原来

发和借鉴意义。

级市。大城市意味着行政资源的配制权也

的地方,但从事的是第二、第三产业,一

中国房地产走偏了,把房地产当成

大,层级也高。如北京的公共服务设施标

个县形成半小时生活圈。当地居民已经城

投资对象,当成第二股市,出现了泡沫。

准就高,行政资源调动能力就强,各种优

镇化,没必要迁往上海、苏州等大城市。

要学德国,德国房地产没有泡沫,几十年

质的资源集中在北京,人们会往那儿走。

中西部地区在城镇化过程中可资借鉴。

来,房价很稳定,甚至还是下降的。 稳定城镇住房价格会成为新一届政

让人往中小城市走,又不挤,空气又 好,为啥都到北京来?因为行政资源高度

(根据作者在“德国模式:启示与借鉴” 论坛上的演讲整理)

May 2013

13


COLUMN

The food thing Rising core inflation lurks behind headline consumer price figures in China and the region By Frederic Neumann, co-head of Asian Economics at HSBC Global Research

E

veryone’s a bit edgy about food prices. That’s understandable: In recent years, the stuff caused big spikes in inflation. And it has again made headlines of late. Recent consumer Frederic Neumann price index (CPI) readings, notably in China but also elsewhere, have nudged up. A drought in New Zealand pushed global milk prices to a record. In India, the price of onions, essential for any tasty local dish, soared. Clearly, this thing needs watching. But, on the whole, we remain relaxed for now about food prices and headline inflation. The trouble lies with core prices. These are slower-grinding but ultimately far more challenging. To add a bit more color to our discussion, consider the charts below. The first shows the global food price index produced by Food and Agriculture Organization, the UN body. What’s striking is that in terms of level, food costs remain extremely elevated, hov-

ering not far below their peak in 2008 when the world was gripped by a food price scare. High food prices mean that households in urban areas, especially those that are poor, continue to feel a squeeze on their budget. By contrast, it means that farmers still receive a nice return for their produce. This, in part, explains the relative strength of rural consumption in much of Asia. What matters for our discussion, however, is the change in food prices over time. After all, it is their change, not level, which contributes directly to inflation. The second chart shows the annual change of the FAO food cost index. Note that up until very recently this had fallen in annual terms. That’s all the more surprising in light of the severe drought experienced in the US last summer, which had raised the price of some feedstock, such as soy, to record highs. At the time, the worry was that this would push up food inflation across the world, including in Asia. Alas, the shock never materialized. True, the

FOA food price index 250.0 230.0 210.0 190.0 170.0 150.0 130.0 110.0 90.0 70.0 50.0 Feb-90

source: UN

14

May 2013

Feb-92

Feb-94

Feb-96

Feb-98

Feb-00

Feb-02

Feb-04

FAO Food Price Index

Feb-06

Feb-08

Feb-10

Feb-12

price of pork rose sharply in China over the winter months (possibly a delayed response to the feedstock price climb), but it has since cooled again. More broadly, the recent pickup in inflation readings, notably in China and Malaysia, is likely related to the Lunar New Year celebration. The seasonal spike in food demand tends to push up prices. But this effect is difficult to glean from the data (not only does the event shift around, but its impact is growing with every cycle). The next few inflation readings should paint a more benign picture. Further out, another food price spike can obviously not be ruled out. But, looking at the current harvest cycle, especially for rice, which matters hugely in Southeast Asia, the outlook appears favorable. Apart from burgeoning stocks in Thailand (accumulated in government warehouses, which presumably will have to hit the market at some stage), there have been encouraging harvests in a number of countries of late, notably in the Philippines. However, even if the risk of a fooddriven spike in headline inflation during the coming months appears low, broader price pressures continue to climb. In fact, elevated food prices, even if not rising at the moment in annual terms, have an indirect impact on core inflation. Higher rural incomes slow the migration of labor to the cities, thus adding to wage pressures. In addition, the urban poor,


FAO food price index annual change 60

FAO food price index (% y-o-y)

50 40 30 20 10 0 -10 -20 -30 -40 Jan-91 Jul-92 Jan-94 Jul-95 Jan-97 Jul-98 Jan-00 Jul-01 Jan-03 Jul-04 Jan-06 Jul-07 Jan-09 Jul-10 Jan-12

source: UN

with their budgets squeezed by inflation, demand some compensation, either through higher wages or via government support programs. Reflecting the latter, a number of governments in Asia – including in India, Indonesia, Malaysia and, to some extent, Thailand – have maintained generous subsidies for fuel and other

programs (like health care). These cannot be sustained forever. As they are removed, pent-up inflation pressures burst forward. Even in China, some price adjustments, such as for energy and electricity, may have to occur despite evidently deep government pockets. Subsidies and price controls, even if financially sustainable for some

time, entail broader costs that ultimately harm investment and efficiency gains (and thus spur price pressures if growth is kept at its trend pace). As we’ve noted before, Asia’s inflation process is changing in subtle ways. Over the last decade, it was spikes in energy and food prices, short and sharp, that drove up CPI readings. There are now signs that price pressures are spreading. Core-driven inflation, however, is not prone to spikes. Rather, it is a slower, cumulative process – albeit one that becomes far more intractable over time. Steadying headline CPI rising over the coming months, therefore, should not deflect from the underlying core price challenges that Asia now faces. Inflation is simply occurring in a different guise.

May 2013

15


专栏

跨越式发展 中国应该找到综合各方利益的发展道路 文 | 罗兰·贝格(Roland Berger) 罗兰贝格管理咨询公司创始人

罗兰·贝格

国模式对它自己来

政府掌握权力,也接受政府掌握权力的事

识分子认为,德国要想在世界经济中占据

说是合适的,因为

实。德国人很自律,也就是说德国人好像

重要地位,要克服通货膨胀、高失业率、

已经成功了,也许在某些方

从出生以来就懂得要遵守纪律,德国也有

经济衰退带来的负面影响,克服以前纳粹

面可以为其他国家所借鉴。

自我奉献牺牲的精神,如果短期个人做出

政权统治带来的影响,就要实行社会市场

我学经济学出身,也算知识

一点牺牲,但是能够对长期利益有好处,

经济,不能让资本主义放任自流,不能让

分子。我觉得德国人从来都

能够在长远对亲朋好友,对邻居有帮助,

市场无限制地自我发展。他们找到了社会

不认为自己的经济模式有什

对德国和欧洲的前途有帮助,德国人就愿

市场经济模式,一方面能够使经济保持足

么好的地方。其实在德国,

意做出一些短期的个人牺牲。这是文化方

够的竞争力,另一方面能够维系社会的凝

商人的名声不太好。德国现

面的渊源。

聚力。

在最热门的讨论是什么?就

第二个是德国的历史,两次世界大战

不受任何管制的市场经济会带来灾

是企业高管的薪酬应该是多少?他们的薪

所带来的战后心态,以及战后文化精神从

难。从上世纪前50年的历史可以看到,从

酬是公众能够理解和容忍的吗?他们是否在

上个世纪50年代带来的根深蒂固的影响,

德国历史中也都可以看到,也就是在那种

德国纳税,还是跑到瑞士避税天堂去了?

要求对毫无节制的资本主义加以控制。第

状况下,导致德国发动了两次世界大战。

如果真有高管这么做,民众会很不高兴。

三就是德国对于教育和科技的无上尊崇。

这些知识分子认为市场经济仍然是最

德国模式就是根植于这三个支柱,这也是

有效、最好的经济体系,但在二战之后应

德国企业能如此成功的原因所在。

该有一种新的市场经济,市场经济应该受

德国也有自己的问题和困难,德国的 商业文化也有缺点,若想看透和理解德国

到约束。其中一个约束就是宪法,德国宪

模式或德国经济的成功,首先就要理解德 国的文化历史。

监管市场经济

德国模式有三大支柱。一个是文化方

“社会市场经济”其实首先是经济

面,德国人喜欢社会团结、凝聚力,喜欢

学家和知识分子提出来的理论。这些知

法规定私人财产也要承担社会的责任,也 就是说,德国对私人财产的定义跟英美法 不一样。 我并不认为财产只是为了个人的私利 所用,不应该为了个人的奢侈目的而用, 或者个人的使用不应以损害他人为代价。 这也是就是为什么要建立社会的安全体 系,德国社会福利体制目的就是希望这个 体制不会牺牲穷人的利益。当然,这个体 系实施过程当中会有一些痛苦,但不管怎 样,社会市场经济的推出就是为了抵制毫 无节制的资本主义。 社会市场经济其实是有延续性的, 源于当时德国的福利国家概念。如德国的 房地产市场,其实并不是很自由,还是政 府管控的成分居多。房屋是民众衣食住行 最重要的部分,政府必须要干预。还有一 些基础设施方面的优势,政府有责任要把 这些基建相关的产品做好,即便是这个基 建是由民营企业建造,但是政府会严密监

中国应该可以实现跨越式发展

16

May 2013

管。


找到自己的路 中国应该找到自己的路,不是照搬模 式就管用,但德国模式也许可以作为中国 学习的对象。中国上个世纪经历了很多的 不幸和战争,而中国勇于面对改革,并大 力推行了改革,这才有了市场经济—经 济不全由政府控制。这在很大程度上促进 了中国经济的腾飞,几亿人得以脱贫,但 也造成了严重的环境污染和贫富差距。 上世纪70年代,德国在选举中就已经 提出选举之后带给德国人绿色的德国,而 以后则实现了这一目标。中国也必须进行 改革,才能改变现有经济增长模式,朝着 产品、服务、附加价值更高的这条路走, 不然永远不可能成为富国。中国经济必须 转型为高附加价值的经济,同时实现社会 的均衡发展,这些已经体现在中国的5年

在欧盟各国中,德国的经济是最健康的

规划中。我认为,中国可以参考一些其他 发达国家的经验,还有私营企业的经验,

能不能走得更快?这与文化没有关系。

同时考虑到贫困人口与富有人口的利益均 衡,找到综合各方利益的发展道路,而不

了吗?”如果一个经济体没有任何灵活 度,也是不好的。我觉得德国商人要学得

欢迎中国投资

是单纯地复制德国模式。

灵活一点。

有人说德国人讲科学,中国人讲诗

德国中小型企业很优秀。但我们非

过去,德国人曾认为日本人会摧毁

歌,但是不要忘了70%的古典音乐都是德

常欢迎中国的投资,哪怕你来收购德国的

汽车产业,德国汽车都会被日本人收入囊

国人创作的,德国人也很爱文学和诗歌,

高科技企业、优秀的中小型企业。全球经

下。后来,德国也学会了日本优化生产的

我们也有很伟大的作家。因为人性使然,

济一体化,德国同样在中国有很多投资。

做法,也知道怎样设计出让人欣赏悦目的

人性就会喜欢浪漫的东西。宗教的价值

当然中国对外来投资有一定限制,不管怎

汽车,同时技术也很好。我们过去曾取笑

观,或者人的价值观念,社会的价值观,

样,中国去德国投资我们非常欢迎。也许

过日本汽车,现在还有谁取笑?我们5年前

都源自人性的一部分,人总是会有价值

有时候会有一些情绪上的反应,如果中国

有点嘲笑中国的汽车,但是10年后至少会

观。

的企业想去收购奔驰公司,那也是可能

有一到两家中国汽车制造商在世界上占据 重要位置,起码排在前六七名。 中德制造企业之间不可能永远存在差 距,德国人是不是永远会成为第一?德国

正因为中国人与德国人在严谨性和灵

的。当然法国人不乐意,所以几年前收购

活度上的不同,中国人、德国人在一起合

空客没有成功。德国人非常开放,只要中

作往往相互获益,中国人学到德国人的严

国人不去干预德国政治,德国人是非常欢

谨,德国人学到中国人的灵活。

迎中国的投资者。很多德国中小型企业在

的宝马、奔驰永远是世界上最优秀的?当

若干年前,我去参加一个展览会,

然不是。世界上质量最好的汽车,一战后

遇到一家中国的玻璃企业。两年后,我又

全世界非常有竞争力,他们甚至也需要中

是劳斯莱斯、捷豹这些品牌。德国人善于

遇到这家公司的代表,他在跟汽车业打交

每个国家都有自己的象征,当年日本

学习,最后超越和打败了它们,难道中国

道。他说:“玻璃行业不好做了,我们公

人在美国买了很多房地产,刚开始美国人

人不能超越和打败对手?这是一个理由。

国的投资。

司现在已经转为做汽车方面的业务。”真

无所谓,后来买了洛克菲勒中心这个美国

第二个理由,30年前的汽车与现在很

是很灵活。德国就不一样,如果一个人学

的象征,美国人就不高兴了。我觉得每个

不一样,难道中国汽车不能实现跨越式发

的是这个领域,或者以前是做这个行当,

民族都会有一些情绪化的东西,尤其是如

展?现在是汽车传动制造时代,今后肯定

他可能一辈子就干这个行当,很少会改

果外国人买了某种民族或国家象征性的东

不是,就中国和德国来说,我们在新汽车

变。我觉得德国人其实也应该向中国人学

西,这个国家的民众肯定会有些不舒服,

时代都是刚刚站在起跑线上。

习这种灵活性。

不管你是中国人、法国人还是美国人。

中国工人也能打败德国工人,为什

如果你去银行贷款,想投资某个产

么不能?中国工人很了不起,在技术方面

业,德国的银行往往会问你:“真的做得

(根据作者在“德国模式:启示与借鉴” 论坛上的演讲整理)

May 2013

17


COLUMN

Paul French’s diary Chinese learn to hide their wealth and look damn good in the process BY Paul French

E

ven in these times of austerity for officials China’s luxury market keeps powering on. Luxury here has always been about brand and bling more than craftsmanPaul French ship and materials. But might that be about to change, at least at the high-end of the luxury sector? Perhaps yes, thanks to two phenomena – first, the need for the rich to be a little stealthier about being wealthy and, second, China’s new First Lady Peng Liyuan and her classic stylings of late. The rise of Stealth Wealth is doing wonders for classic brands with a little more discretion than LV or Gucci. The two best examples are probably Bottega Veneta and Loewe, which are both performing very nicely at the moment. Both brands are predominantly about fine materials and craftsmanship – spotting a BV or a Loewe bag takes sharp eyes and fashionista know-how. It would seem that Mrs Xi Jinping, Peng Liyuan, knows her quality materials. Pictures of China’s new First Lady front-and-center accompanying her husband have flashed round the Chinese internet. By and large her tailored Peabody coat won admiring praise and has probably started a trend, while her Chanel-like peach suit in Tanzania was also received well.

18

May 2013

But it’s her bags everyone wants to know about. Within a couple of days of the photo opp, Taobao had over eight million hits asking which brand her bags were. But that’s the point – both bags she sported were clearly of sumptuous leather and well made but were infuriatingly brandless. This First Lady knows two things: Style doesn’t need to be branded and sometimes it’s best to keep the public guessing. On the losing end of this shift, the austerity crackdown has hit the super high-end watch market hard. Brands like Vaucheron Constantin and Piaget are having trouble finding buyers. This has caused much comment in the press about the imminent demise of the decent timepiece market in China after a roller coaster ride of bejeweled wrists and saucer sized clocks poking out from under the cuff of a tailored Zegna suit or three. But there’s another story in the watch market. Lots of honest, hardworking folk, who’ll never receive a chunky watch as a “gift,” think they deserve something nice. And so highend, but more affordable, brands like Longines and Omega have been doing rather well. Affordable luxury can be as good for watch brands as it’s been for the handbag brands – think of the terrific success of an entry-level luxury accessories firm like Coach in China.

You’ve bought the luxury apartment, the classy motor, the clothes and bags and you’ve even shelled out for the expensive toys like watches and pens. What you need now is some art to go on the walls. That old restaurant calendar just won’t cut it anymore. But taxes on art are now generally considered punitive and so what to do? The answer for many art buyers in China has been simple – stop buying. But where there’s a will there’s a loophole. Hence plans for the 83,000 square-meter “Beijing Freeport of Culture” near Beijing Capital Airport slated to be tax-exempt and with bigname partners involved like Sotheby’s. This just might be the place to store your treasure without the taxman having a party. And finally … what do those rich, luxury-loving folk get up to in Shanghai? You could do worse than read TashAw’s Five Star Billionaire – secretive billionaires, shadowy property developers, wanna-be success stories, instantaneous fame and riches. Tash Aw, who wrote the book while residing in Shanghai, lifts the lid on the lifestyles of the rich and famous – hidden luxury at its finest.

Paul French is author of “Midnight in Peking” and the chief China strategist of Mintel


REPOR T

Fear and molting Which companies stand to gain and lose most from China’s bird flu outbreak?

M

ore and more masks are appearing on the faces of commuters in Shanghai. Drug stores like Watsons were sold out of hand sanitizer, a relatively novel product in China. The line for a popular storefront that sells roasted ducks on Huaihai Road, which in the early evening sometimes holds a hundred people, had just a dozen waiting at 5 pm one Sunday after the outbreak. A new strain of avian flu has begun to take a toll on the Chinese economy. Authorities in Hangzhou and Nanjing slaughtered birds and halted trading at poultry markets, echoing a move by Shanghai. The market responded quickly to news of the outbreak, with Chinese stocks traded in Hong Kong and New York plunging at least temporarily on concerns of reduced economic growth. The experience of the Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome (SARS) panic one decade ago prompted investors to react more surely to news of this outbreak. Shares of Chinese companies involved in the farming of eggs, poultry and pigs were among the first to suffer, including Chuying Agro-pastoral, Henan Shuanghui Investment and Hunan New Wellfull. Authorities have declared well-cooked eggs and chicken safe to eat, but many consumers are still avoiding them. The crisis boost some stocks, however, especially certain healthcare companies. Shares of BioCryst

20

May 2013

Pharmaceuticals, the North Carolina-based maker of an influenza drug called Peramivir, soared 29% on April 5 after Chinese regulators said it was expediting approval of the drug as an effective alternative for patients who could not inhale or take drugs orally. Roche Holding also stood to benefit after Shanghai authorities stressed that the virus was sensitive to its drug, Tamiflu. Shanghai officials also mentioned that a Chinese herb called banlangen, the root of a woad plant, could help to ward off the disease, leading to a boom in sales. Strong sales for other cures of questionable efficacy are sure to follow: During SARS in 2003, many stores sold out of vinegar and face masks, and consumers hoarded salt in 2011 following rumors that iodine in the salt would protect them against radiation from the Japanese Fukushima nuclear disaster.

Keep calm and carry on It’s not yet clear how serious the current outbreak will prove to be, for both the public and investors. It may be merely an opportunity for investors to take profits or make new bets on shortterm stock price shifts, or it could grow into a pandemic that will significantly stifle economic activity. Ting Lu, China economist at Bank of America Merrill Lynch, emphasized in a note that investors are right to be cautious, as the current outbreak is worse than previous cases of bird flu.

The revelation that it can be transmitted person-to-person could mean that the health and economic toll will rise. China’s lack of transparency makes it difficult to differentiate between precaution and panic, and that is undoubtedly heightening public anxiety. Official news and announcements have been slow and scarce, and the public was already on edge after an armada of dead pigs was found in the river that supplies much of Shanghai’s drinking water. So far, however, this strain of bird flu looks far less devastating than SARS, which started in Hong Kong in late 2002. China’s National Health and Family Planning Commission insists that confirmed human infections of the H7N9 are “isolated.” Roughly one decade ago, SARS killed about one-tenth of the 8,000 people it infected worldwide and caused economic growth to fall from 10.8% year-on-year in the first quarter of 2003 to 7.9% year-on-year in the second quarter. If the current disease worsens, Lu wrote he may lower his forecast for second-quarter GDP to less than 8% from 8.1% previously. Even so, past experiences indicate that the negative economic impact from epidemics will not last long, Lu wrote. The economy rebounded quickly after the disease was contained in June. Lu’s message to investors is much like the Chinese government’s message to its people: Now is not the time to panic.


黄金区域 低风险、高回报的投资机遇,坐享加拿大西部经济繁荣的优势 及其堪比任何发达国家的商业地产连锁效应

今动荡的全球经济使众多投资者

购物广场或进行再融资,为投资者提供丰

空间不断上升的需求使进驻率高企(据国

感到迷茫。中国住宅房地产市场

厚的利润。

际研究咨询公司高力公司(Colliers)的数

一蹶不振,人民币汇率也经历了表现最差

在30年的经营历史中,自2001年

据,埃德蒙顿的进驻率自2003年起长期维

的一年。然而,在世界的某些区域,经济

迄今,REDEV的创始人已经开发了逾

持在95%以上)成为租金上升的推动力。

却持续繁荣。如加拿大西部富产石油的省

11,000单元的住宅地产,并帮助逾5,000

在亚伯达,租金仍保持低位,为未来的租

份亚伯达及其邻省萨斯喀彻温,而加拿大

投资者成为加拿大29座商场的合伙所有

金和资本价值上升提供了空间。

元则是投资者安全的避险天堂。

人。

加拿大西部的人口统计数据令全世界

全球经济衰退对加拿大西部影响甚

在投资者中,三分之二是加拿大居

艳羡。该地区房产价格可承受,人口不断

微,该地区因丰富的石油、天然气、农

民,很多人就住在商场附近,这充分说明

增多,失业率下降。零售额增长快于地区

田、钾肥、钻石和铀储藏,正处于资源

了其地理位置的优越和地产的价值。这一

人口增长,通胀较低,经济学家预测,这

推动的经济繁荣期。传统的石油和天然气

模式为投资者提供直接和持续的现金流和

个拥有4百万人口的地区,在未来10年将

储藏覆盖亚伯达的半数地区,而过去10

可观的资本收益。当地产出售时,投资者

新增60万个就业机会。

年的技术革新正在打开该地区丰富的含油

支付相对低廉的税收,同时从加拿大严格

加拿大商业地产为亚洲投资者在当今

沙储藏。包括道达尔(Total SA)和中石化

的商业法中受益,也无需承担政府限价政

动荡的全球经济中提供安全的避险天堂。

(Sinopec)在内的世界最大的能源公司,

策的风险。

商业地产为通胀提供风险对冲,比住宅地

在该地区大举投资,其目的是帮助亚伯达 在2018年之前将石油产量翻番。

REDEV公司不是投机性公司。公司

产更稳健,比股票的波动更少。然而,对

从经济迅速增长地区现有的、区位优越的

于投资者而言,很难或几乎不可能靠自己

中国的投资者或许会疑惑于如何才能

主要商业地产中获得稳定收益。该模式紧

的力量进入商业地产。REDEV公司给投

在这强劲增长的盛宴中分一杯羹,请访问

扣加拿大经济和商业地产稳定性的两大积

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者轻易获得低风险,高回报的投资机遇。

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款,并以REDEV

当今全球经济充满不确定性,还有什么时

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5-10年的租金逐年递增形出租。

成立于1981年的REDEV

Properties名义提供

Proper-

加拿大的资源繁荣刺激了经济其它部

ties公司向投资者提供在经济不断增长的

门的增长。零售业空间供应短缺。加拿大

加拿大城市成为现存主要商业地产合伙所

人均零售面积仅为美国的一半,零售需求

有人的机会。REDEV公司帮助提升购物

持续飙升。而亚伯达和萨斯喀彻温省尤其

广场的盈利潜能,在这一过程中使投资者

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封面故事

数字阅读浪潮 P27 数字出版直面挑战 P36 融合与变革 P44 新媒体营销有方

22

May 2013


数字出版直面挑战 怎样应对技术平台和商业模式变化所带来的冲击 文 | 思闻

联网普及以来,中国出版业发生了

“我们的定位就是为出版产业上下游

巨大的变化。近几年,数字出版的

提供全方位数字出版服务,为中国差不多

参与者风起云涌,其中有终端厂商和服务

90%的出版社、超过95%的报社以及全球

提供商,有传统出版集团,有盛大、当当

众多机构用户提供产品和服务。”方正阿

这样的互联网企业,还有新兴的数字出版

帕比总经理赫思佳说道,“出版是‘苦行

机构,也有中国移动和中国电信等电信运

业’,数字出版更苦。希望在3到5年内看

营商。

到中国数字出版的爆发点。”

过去一年里,数字出版领域的大事件

中文在线是中国最大的数字出版机

层出不穷。“回顾2012年,中国数字阅读

构之一,拥有大众类出版物60%的出版

市场的发展随着参与企业的增加、维权意

权。“与我们合作的出版机构有492家,

识的觉醒、终端门槛的降低、国家政策的

超过总数的80%,中国有超过2500名知名

扶持,渐渐走向成熟。”艾瑞咨询分析师

作家,其中有2000位是我们的合作方。同

严华雯表示。

时,通过手机、互联网和手持终端,覆盖

传统印刷类机构怎样走向数字化经

了6000万中国用户。过去几年我们的平均

营?已从事数字出版的企业,面临怎样的

增长率超过100%。”中文在线董事长兼

新挑战和新竞争?数字出版领域的领先企

总裁童之磊介绍道。

业,如何应对技术平台和商业模式变化所 带来的冲击?

很多手机如三星、LG、摩托罗拉和 酷派等带有英语数字阅读产品,这些都是 掌阅科技的数字发行平台。目前已有110

领先企业应对冲击

家出版社进驻,每天可以让1000万用户看

前不久贝塔斯曼并购了全世界第二大

到10万本书。“我们的模式很简单,希望

出版社企鹅,两家加起来控制了大众图书

把更多的好书装到用户的口袋里,用户可

出版40%的市场份额。“说明我们面临的

以随时拿出手机或PAD看上面的书。”掌

挑战有多么严峻,因为我们是被逼无奈才

阅科技总经理成湘均表示。

做这样的整合。”贝塔斯曼中国总部CEO

雅昌是目前中国最大的艺术品印刷

龙宇表示,“我们的数字化转型以蓝登为

公司,通过艺术品印刷形成全世界最大的

例,代表了这个行业的风向标,在北美市

中国艺术品数据库。“通过数据库解决版

场达到30%份额。”

权问题,将这些数据形成传统和数字出版

贝塔斯曼最近的畅销书《50度灰》

物,还有艺术衍生品,将来还要打造艺术

在北美地区数字化销量达到51%。龙宇认

影像方面的产品。”雅昌集团董事长万捷

为,数字化并不是简单地将纸质的印刷文

透露道,“以POD(按需印刷)方式形成

字转化为信息流,而是涉及到品牌建设和

数字化产品,从传统印刷行业向内容行业

企业形象,更是内容产业对数字化挑战的

转化,通过创新形成新的文化产业业态和

应战。

商业模式。”

方正阿帕比是方正旗下专注于出版技

万方公司是国内最早从事中文数据

术和服务的企业,处于数字出版产业链中

开发的企业,从事相关行业开发已有20

游,为出版社提供数字出版解决方案,同

年。中国科技信息研究所所长贺德方解释

时也为下游渠道商提供出版技术服务。企

道:“就是利用国家财政提供的资金,把

鹅出版集团也是方正阿帕比的用户。

中国科研人员从事科学研究需要的在全世

May 2013

23


封面故事

界出版的各语种文献采购回来,然后加工 成数据库,供国内科研人员检索。”

挑战困惑各有所见 上述企业都在数字出版领域处于领先 地位,同样面临着新挑战和新竞争。他们 在商业模式的创新或经营过程中,面临的 最大挑战是什么? “我们在做数字出版时的最大挑战就 是盗版。哪怕收一分钱,用户的感觉都不 一样。”成湘均说道,“现在获取内容的 渠道那么便捷和方便,如果盗版问题不解 决,对数字出版和做正版的企业影响是非 常大的。” “数字出版给所有使用者带来了很大 的便捷,但是大部分人不愿意为这种便捷

运用数字触摸感应屏设计图纸

付钱。而且在推动资源共享过程中也有这 种倾向,他们认为共享就是无偿的,这种 观念是不对的。这种观念蔓延下去,我们

挑战是政策风险,做数字出版没有几个拿

赫思佳接着表示:“在中国两年看到

到牌照的,没有牌照就是“违法经营”。

的情况,产业链的各方还有一个很大问题

再就是拿到牌照多少年?“我接着问你的

龙宇认为,艺术家和内容创造者应该

就是缺乏合作,每一方都希望自己从头到

内容风险控制了吗?一家非常大的出版集

受到激励和善待,造成盗版横行的原因是

尾通吃,大家都有很强的防范心理,在这

团董事长说,这么多年做出版概括成八个

没有构建出最好的利益格局。“你卖的本

个产业没有起步的时候大家都互相防起来

字叫‘如履薄冰,如临深渊’。在中国要

来就不合理,后来被冲垮,这是我们的一

了,不是通力合作往前去推这个行业,这

把数字出版做好,第一位事情就是要懂政

个教训。我们在欧美也没有靠卖内容赚到

是阻碍中国数字出版发展的很大问题。

治。”他说道。

这个行业就没有未来。”贺德方说道。

很多的钱,知识产权保护很好的国家,仍 然有90%的盗版。”他说道。

贺德方认为,最大的挑战还是在技 术方面。传统出版业认为数字出版在国内

大众领域良性发展

中国网络文学收费很成功,中国读者

技术上有优势,这种优势要看跟谁比,跟

真正成功的是大众化数字出版,已出

为网络文学付钱,游戏爱好者也为游戏付

传统出版比可能有一点优势,跟国际上的

现了非常优秀的从事大众内容的数字出版

钱,只要给他们合理的方法去付钱,他们

趋势相比还有很大的差距。现在很多数字

机构,通过电信运营商,包括内容平台的

是愿意为此付出的。龙宇谈道:“很多东

化不是真正意义上的数字化,只是把文本

共同推动,大众类数字出版已经到了收获

西需要很早就开始定价。比如为短信付费

PDF化,没有对内容进行深度的挖掘和组

期,走上了良性发展的通道,年盈利在几

的用户,如果再为微信付钱,他们就会删

合,真正为用户提供便捷的知识分析和统

千万以上的数字出版企业为数不少。

除了。”

计等服务。

很多大机构都在往这一领域布局,

“内容不是王,只是王后而已,渠道

万捷表示:“我们的最大挑战是要

包括亚马逊、百度和腾讯等大平台。大众

才是王,你一定要依附到一个大王,我们

面对全新的行业,要把不同的行业整合起

出版企业怎么看待这一现象?市场格局会

投资的豆瓣是中产阶级消费群体的门户,

来。创新最难的就是不知道什么是好的,

不会因此发生变化?这个黄金行业在接下

他们都是终端形态,要跟这些强势的渠道

你就不知道往哪里创新,模式创新和产品

来的一两年时间里,可能会发生怎样的演

进行多元合作。”龙宇说道。

创新都存在这个问题。”他补充道:“将

变?

赫思佳指出:“版权是问题,但不是

来书一定是奢侈品,是艺术品收藏、装饰

现在的格局,压力和竞争也确实很

唯一的问题。”中国的出版业不是很大的

和礼品。所以书在复古,书肯定不能没

大,因为互联网巨头基本全都在做数字出

行业,整体数额很小,每年新闻出版研究

有,家里没有书不可想象,但数字化是必

版,包括淘宝、百度、当当、盛大、京东

院发布的总产值,基本都来自游戏,书报

然趋势。”

和网易,还有三大运营商。

刊这些传统意义上的出版非常小,书籍的

24

出版可以忽略。

May 2013

童之磊认为,在中国做出版最大的

“数字阅读是很简单的模式,就是


读者的体验没有实际的改变意义,怎样在

为什么专业领域做不出规模?企业的成长

渠道上赚到钱?赫思佳认为是“不可思议

到底遇到了哪些瓶颈?

的事情”,不会有大的发展。

中国数字出版只有走专业化道路才会

从长远来看,如果国内出版商或者渠

有机会。万捷认为,只有专业化才有可能

道商和合作伙伴,联合起来在大众类出版

慢慢做强做大,因为机会还是很多。全世

上做出一些精品,做好市场推广,在未来3

界互联网大公司都在美国和中国,如美国

到5年,可能会看到曙光的出现。

的谷歌、亚马逊,中国的腾讯、阿里、新

赫思佳认为,原创文学市场,将来

浪、百度。“我们的中小企业,特别是文

会出来几家大出版机构,淘汰众多的小厂

化产业,现在就想做大很难。一定要很专

商,并且有可能对传统出版造成冲击。

业才有机会,我们20年就专做这一项,我

大众出版还会有很大的增长空间,童

们就是第一。”他说道。

之磊认为增长动力来自于两个方面。中国

据贺德方了解,世界上最大专业数字

的电子阅读率达到38%,预计未来会达到

出版机构可能是汤森路透,做到了100多

70%。从用户消费情况来看,过去几年人

亿美元,拥有6万名职工。“科技为什么

均消费涨了3倍,今天看到的大众出版从未

做起来比较艰难?这与科技中心的转移规

来看是很小的市场。

律联系在一起。第一个科技中心在欧洲,

中国出版市场可分为大众出版、教育

后来到美国,这个趋势造就了世界上的大

把好的书用最好、最快捷的方式提供给用

出版和专业出版。其中教育出版占51%,

型科技公司分布在欧洲和美国。”贺德方

户,未来的格局一定会有一些变化,不只

大众出版占35%,剩下的是专业出版。教

认为,“中国这几年提出实施创新驱动发

是内容或者技术,我觉得可能是技术和文

育出版占了三分之二以上的利润。大众出版

展战略,创新研发的规模已经进入世界前

化的结合。”成湘均说道。

包括文学、经管社科等,文学只占20%,

列,研发人员总数已是世界第一,高端知

掌阅科技是IT和技术性的公司,现

文学又包括了传记、散文,而小说是非常

识生产和学术产品这两年进展非常快。我

在也意识到内容的重要性。成湘均表示:

小的一块。童之磊认为,小说市场特别是

们认为,如果世界科技中心发生第三次转

“一块是内容的撬动,会有一部分市场。

原创小说大概也就是7%。

移,转移到中国的可能性是最大的。”而

通过大的渠道撬动,这个市场也有一定的

“大众出版市场不仅是网络文学,既

国内产业规模现在比较小,优秀内容比较

机会。还有一个传统领域,对内容的理解

使在大众文学领域仍然有很多机会,包括

少,因为科学评价的中心在国外,需要将

程度,可以生产出很独特的内容,生产出

很多产经和生活出版物的数字化过程也会

很多优秀的研究成果投到国外去接受评

很受欢迎的内容,”

带来很大的机会。”中国文化产业投资基

价,中国要使用,还要从国外市场高价买

金副总裁张元林表示。

来。但贺德方看好未来的发展趋势。

方正阿帕比不是专做大众出版,只 是技术厂商,这些年与国内外很多渠道商

中国数字教育出版才刚初步。去年9

启明创投投资了豆丁网,做的不是大

合作。赫思佳分析道:“我们有这样的看

召开了全国教育信息化全国大会,未来十

众阅读类的文档和书籍。豆丁网是重要的

法,大众出版在国内和国外的定义不一

年中国数字教育会有巨大的发展。“我们

渠道,每天上网的用户大概是500万独立

样,中国原创文学占了主流意义上的大众

判断这个市场的规模一定在千亿级以上,

的IP,比起大众阅读差很远。但是以工具

出版。其实出版社的大众出版,一种是文

这才是真正的蓝海,也是值得关注的领

书或者专业的角度来看,500万是比较多

学类的图书,比如小说和畅销书;一种是

域。”童之磊说道。

了。他们每天有超过一万用户在这个平台

生活类的图书,比如家居和菜谱相关的图

成湘均表示:“我始终坚信数字阅读

上付费,去买专业的书籍,有些是用户自

书。我们认为中国原创文学的出版,已经

会走进大众的心中,而且会成为一种阅读

己上传的,现在也越来越多。大概90多家

过了高速发展的时期,进入到比较稳定发

的常态。”

出版商跟他们合作,把正式出版物发布在

展的时期。” 但是真正的大众数字出版还远远没

上面,然后跟他们去分收入。

专业出版遭遇瓶颈

启明创投创始主管合伙人邝子平表

有起步。赫思佳不认为随着国外资本的进

专业内容的数字出版在国外非常成

示,数字出版不是简单地把一本书变成

入,或者国内风投的进入,纯粹的投资通

熟,也是比教育市场更早实现盈利的细分

PDF,而是必须产生用户行为的改变,

过渠道商能够拉动出版社大众出版B2C市

市场。但是在国内,从事专业内容数字出

使他们获得更大的方便。如果平台和渠道

场的爆发。出版社把纸书变成电子版,对

版的企业做得很辛苦,而且规模都不大。

能够提供很好的搜索功能和很好的阅读体

May 2013

25


封面故事

验,用户其实是愿意为这些需求买单的。

是中国电子书包推动者之一,第一个电

过程中比较容易找到优势。

“过去专业出版界其实收入也不大,

子书包出现在上海虹口。”童之磊表示,

“在中国出版市场,拥有教育出版权

所以不能说受到了数字出版的冲击,大众

“孔子说的时候因材施教从来没有实现

的大型国有出版集团,仍然有很长的时间

阅读可能会有一些冲击,但专业领域应该

过。而现在,老师在台上讲,下面不管是

做尝试,也有足够的资源利用资本力量来

是增量。”邝子平说道。

10个人,还是50个人,听到的都是一样

进行数字化的收购和兼并,以尽快向数字

“专业出版现在处在比较小和弱的状

的。电子书包使人类第一次真正实现了因

出版转型。”张元林说道。

态,但是其实有新的模式和新的渠道在出

材施教。可以根据学生对知识点的掌握情

现。”张元林表示,“全球科研中心向中

况,推送不同的内容,而且可以反复测

国转移,这更值得我们期待。”

试、训练和提高,甚至一对一地解答。” 童之磊说道:“我们做过调研,家长

教育板块寻觅机遇 数字出版业除了大众出版领域外,教

为了孩子高考提高一分,他们至少愿意花 一千元。所以会诞生上万亿的市场。

数字出版前景几何 在数字出版领域,至今没有出现对内 容和渠道带来很大变化的创新。未来,国 内数字出版行业的前景将会如何? 邝子平认为,数字出版一定会有很

育是很大的板块,因为中国将教育视为民

“公共教育里有很多鸿沟需要填补。

好的发展机会,但还要走很漫长的路。风

生保障工程。出版企业拥有这一基石后,

市场创造了很多开放的机制,很多民营企

险投资更看重的是平台和技术,这个业态

就会拥有稳定的现金和稳定的成长。数字

业都加入进来,将整个教育行业的出版和

未必适合风险投资。“未来是很光明的行

教育平台的出现,对原有的教育教材出版

教辅行业的外延做得非常大。”龙宇补

业,希望能有爆发性成长”他说道。

的体系会造成什么样的冲击?应该如何把

充道,“美国人习惯任何跟教育有关的事

数字出版和实体出版只是印刷载体不

握市场机遇?

情都由政府来买单,不是自己掏钱。在教

同、形式有变。成湘均认为:“阅读是人

育领域中国的盈利模式和心态很有前瞻

与生俱来的需求,不需要刻意读这个读那

性。”

个。以前在竹简上刻字……现在则有了电

“教材方面是有垄断的发行渠道,市 场化的程度和数字化的进程不是很快。教 辅书是直接做数字化,竞争非常激烈。” 华映资本管理合伙人季薇分析道。

尽管数字出版会在教育领域率先突 破,但盈利模式还不是很清楚。中信证券

脑、PAD和手机触屏。未来一定会往这方 面延伸。”

中文在线教育出版的运营做得比较

研究部传媒与互联网行业分析师皮舜认

中国经济在转型,GDP增速也在降,

好。“未来最大的机会是电子书包。我们

为,以教育为依托的产业,在数字化转型

但专业数字出版行业至少以两倍于GDP增 幅的速度保持稳步增长。“这个行业是值 得投资方投资的行业,也是很值得年轻人 从事的行业。”贺德方说道。 龙宇谈道:“像数字书包这样的项 目,在举国体制下可能实现全球范围内的 突破。中国可能出现超越式的前进,即便 是薄利,也对全球运营有示范意义。” 出版是比较专业的产业,但加上数 字两个字,给出版拓展了无穷无尽的空 间。“无论教育出版、专业出版,还是大 众出版,在未来5-10年期间,如果中国数 字出版产业产业链内志同道合的产业合作 伙伴能够联合起来,将数字出版往纵深方 向去做,在纵深领域产生新的商业模式, 那就一定会催生出非常大的产业空间。” 赫思佳表示,“我们对数字出版非常有信 心。” “数字化给出版带来很多机会。对企 业而言,关键是怎样用智慧来整合各种资

移动阅读广受欢迎

26

May 2013

源,把握住机会。”万捷说道。


All eyes on Canada Commercial real estate in the Canadian province of Alberta is a safe, hasstle-free investment for investors worldwide, says Regan Richardson of REDEV Properties What are the advantages for investors in looking at the shopping mall and commercial real estate segment of the market in Canada? We find it interesting that many investors seem to think that buying residential property is the best investment in real estate. The truth of the matter is that if they do not plan to live in the property, it is really not worthwhile compared to the ease of owning and managing a retail commercial asset. Residential property has the tremendous burden on the landlord or resident to pay all the costs of taxes, maintenance, fees, compared to retail commercial where the tenant pays all these expenses. This is commonly called triple net leasing. In retail commercial real estate, the tenant pays all the costs and the landlord nets substantially more than residential property with almost no hassle. As Warren Buffet says, “any investor should only own two residential properties: one to live in and one for vacation.” REDEV makes it easy for overseas investors to invest in shopping malls through direct equity shares starting at CAD $50,000 to the millions of dollars. What economic factors make many people view Canada as a “Safe Haven” for investment in these volatile times? The Canadian banking sector is rat-

Regan Richardson

ed to be the best in the world. The country’s high standard of living and abundant resources make Canada one of the most desirable places to live in the world. The province of Alberta is often spoken of as a high-potential investment region these days. What the main advantages you see for investors in looking at Alberta? Alberta is benefitting from a strong economy that has been the cornerstone for Canada’s economic security. The abundance of natural resources has drawn Canadians from every province in search of jobs and a better life. This means Alberta’s provincial economy will continue to experience growth for decades due to the high global demand for oil, gas, uranium, and potash. What are the key factors investors should consider when making a choice between different

shopping mall investment opportunities? The answer is simple, “location, location, location” and a strong and complimentary tenant mix. REDEV has a proven formula of 100% success. Because we purchase existing shopping malls, we are able to review the history and look at “true data” before we acquire a retail property. What factors would make now a good time for investors to look at this kind of opportunity? Our shopping malls benefit from Alberta’s low unemployment, extremely low vacancy rates, and robust job growth over the next decade, if not decades. Investors looking for low risk investments with high yield returns reinvest over and over again with us because we have 100% record of success. This investment is perfect as a medium hold investment that can produce returns in 4-7 years of 15%-20% P.A. on average. How does Canada stack up against other countries as a place for foreign investment? Why? Canada stacks up quite impressively against other countries in the foreign investment category. It has the most stable banking system in the world and a strong currency that puts it at the top for foreign investment. This is why REDEV’s motto is “simple, stable, secure.”

CO-PUBLISHED ARTICLE

INTERVIEW • REGAN RICHARDSON


COVER STORY

Digital Consumers China’s digital advertisers need to grow up instead of just growing fast

28

May 2013


B

rowsing one of China’s leading internet portals has been easier on the eye in recent years. By Western standards, sites such as Sina or Tencent may seem cluttered – even overwhelming. But, compared to the omnipresent floating ads, pop-ups and uncloseable boxes of years past that pestered Chinese internet users, the general demeanor of online advertising in the country has become – at least for market leaders – increasingly pleasant. While decluttering is a good start, China has a lot of ground to cover in monetizing digital ads. Boosting the value of ads and handling large amounts of user data will be a large part of raising revenues in the months and years to come. Although digital ad revenues are expected to surpass those of TV in 2013, according to Chinese internet analysis firm iResearch, investors are waiting to see if they can keep up with the pace of the country’s quickly expanding digital universe. Along the way, harnessing the mobile market will help – in fact, it will be essential. But this market is in its early stages and companies will be wary of running adverts on smartphones or tablets until advertisers can prove that people are looking at them.

Not fast enough China’s digital advertising market is booming, but slower annual growth last year has spooked some investors. The value of the market increased by 48% year-on-year, reaching US$11.7 billion, according to a report from

Analysys International, a Beijing-based internet research firm. Still, the figure is down from around 56% growth in 2011. Company stocks have already suffered from the potential of a continued slowdown. Qihoo 360 Technology, a Beijing-based company that launched a search engine last year, as well as China’s biggest search engine Baidu. com, both lost share value on fears of a slowdown in advertising growth. So did Sina, which owns China’s biggest portal and most-used weibo microblogging service. China’s poor economic figures last year didn’t help internet firms boost their ad revenues. Companies generally spend less on advertising during times of economic uncertainty. China recorded disappointing first-quarter GDP and industrial output data, which could put more downward pressure on growth in the sector. However, some analysts predicted this year’s growth will at least match last year’s. “The overall macroeconomic situation in China for 2012 wasn’t great, so most customers were hesitant to buy ads, especially online. This year, people are more optimistic,” said Mike Chen, an internet analyst at China Merchants Securities in Shenzhen. He predicted more than 40% growth in the online advertising market again this year but up to 50% for search engines such as Baidu. Real estate firms and automakers could be big advertisers in 2013, Chen said.

Cost-per-one To maintain high growth, China

May 2013

29


COVER STORY

will need to follow the global trend of breaking down larger amounts of data on user behavior and translating that into higher-value ads. A major factor in increasing the value of digital advertising is lifting the value of a view, or how much a company pays when their ad is present or clicked on a computer screen. This value is increasing in China as companies become more efficient at collecting and using data on internet users. “People used to talk cost per thousand. A thousand eyeballs was the currency that the media business used,” Doug Pearce, chief executive at advertising multinational Omnicom’s China branch, told China Economic Review. “But using new technology, it’s now getting down to the cost-per-

30

May 2013

one. Because we can target people and serve them ads based on what they’ve done before, what they look at, where they’ve been.” Advancements in this area come down to crunching and utilizing “big data” as online ad wonks call it, or swathes of information so big that traditional methods of deriving useful trends are ineffective. China is making headway on employing new data analysis technology, Pearce said on the sidelines of entrepreneurial forum Transition China on April 12 in Shanghai. Companies will have to do this if they want to capitalize on the surge of data to come with increased digital connectivity. Pearce described a future in which advertisers could track a specific ad

that is viewed in an individual household, as well as any physical reactions of people in their homes, such as opening a refrigerator or turning on a stove top. Companies that advertise with Omnicom China use about 25-30% of their ad spending online, Pearce said. Online video platforms such as Youku have been the fastest growing segment of digital advertising in China, he added.

On the road again Mastering ads on computer will not be enough. Companies will need to apply that knowhow to handheld devices – and quickly. Although still small, mobile advertising has picked up an increasing


amount of revenue since 2011. Advertising on mobile devices brought in US$457 million that year, according to a report released by accounting firm PwC in mid-2012. By 2016, mobile advertising could be worth US$6.2 billion, according to the report. The number of Chinese toting smartphones is set to double this year from more than 300 million last year, putting pressure on companies to figure out a profitable mobile model. By 2016, PwC predicts there will be 1 billion smartphones, tablets and other handheld devices in the mainland market. One major challenge to increasing mobile ad revenues in China is the inability to evaluate how many people actually see the ads on their phones, said Chen at China Merchants Securities. While tracking the number of people who click on an ad from their desktop computer is easy, the technology needed to calculate views on a handset or a tablet isn’t in place yet. Advertisers will catch on to the rise of mobile, Chen said, and clearer metrics should demonstrate a rapidly increasing number of views. “Soon, advertisers may realize that mobile advertising is getting more views than PCs,” he said. The technology used on mobile advertising platforms in China lags about one year behind that employed in more advanced markets such as the US, he said. Global advancements in user data and mobile advertising are making many of China’s online ad models appear archaic, Brian Wong, CEO of Canadabased advertising platform Kiip, recently told China Economic Review in an interview. Perhaps that lagging ad model, more than uncertain economic conditions, contributes to flagging – albeit high – growth in the sector. The country’s advertising heavyweights will need to do more than simply refine cluttered websites to keep growth positive. Companies must continue refining data on customers in the hopes of designing more effective ads and bumping up the cost-per-view. They can follow users around in their apartments, as Pearce of Ominicom suggests, later on. It may not be long before smartphones are the primary device on which Chinese are browsing the internet. Focusing on the computer screen alone would be a huge mistake. Given the rapid development of China’s mobile market, companies will have to perfect traditional digital advertising with one hand, while dialing in the mobile industry on the other.

封面插画师 / Cover Illustrator MAY 2013 VOL. 24, NO. 5 | www.chinaeconomicreview.com

数字阅读浪潮 融合与变革 徒步穿越中国

2013年5月刊

北京插画师陈雷磊经常用“铁皮怪兽实验室”这个 名字创作一些插画。他的插画想象力丰富,很有故

Illustrator: Chen Leilei

事性,非常有趣。 Chen Leilei, a Beijing illustrator, also named as Digital Consumers Mice Now: CHINA'S SPOT TO MEET

“Iron-Monster Lab” creating illustration pieces rich of creativity and imagination.

May 2013

31


封面故事

融合与变革 传统媒体必须和新媒体结合才有未来 文 | 铁琴 化产业被誉为“第四产业航母”,

化领域还是有差距,这是我们未来作为投

其发展离不开资本的滋养。在新媒

资方和从业者所要关注的地方。”陈杭说

体崛起并日益成熟的市场背景下,不仅要

道。

探索中国文化产业的整体发展趋势,还要

广电总局和新闻出版总署的合并符合

关注在这样的产业发展大势下,文化产业

国际传媒业的发展趋势。合并是否预示着

下属各行业的互相融合和未来走向。

出版和广电互相合作、互相参股有更多的

互联网普及后,作为文化产业子行业

可能性?看到报纸、电视、电影、互联网

的传统媒体受到数字化的巨大冲击,如何

整合的大趋势,投资基金能不能在资本层

应对这一局面成为重点课题。根据中国文

面实现出版业和广电业的业务合作?

化产业投资基金管理有限公司董事总经理 陈杭的分析,近年来,国际传媒业呈现出 四大发展趋势,也即跨地域、跨媒体、品 牌化和新技术。

对比国际传媒业的发展,再看中国 传媒业的机遇和挑战。未来民营企业的发

人民网改制上市

跨媒体趋势是重点。“传统媒体开始

展,一定会比过去10年获得更大的机会,

意识到电视媒体和互联网媒体的作用,很

国有企业增加竞争力也需要打品牌,打品

市,江苏、安徽出版集团、浙江日报,广

清楚地看到国际传统媒体的运作,正从内

牌就离不开广告,通过加多宝和王老吉的

州日报,还有借壳上市的河南大地出版集

容制作、传输平台向新媒体价值链转变,

品牌之争,可以看出民营企业对品牌的投

团。

包括集成、包装,传输平台和用户等。”

放是多么的饥渴。以后10年民营经济会获

第三个机遇是媒体技术迎来创新浪

陈杭表示。

得更多发展,也能够支持中国广告行业从

潮。第四个机会是中国经济转型的机会,

2000多亿增加到8000亿。

中国经济不再靠三架马车中的出口和投

几个大的集团是怎么跨媒体的?时代 华纳下面有华纳兄弟电影公司,还有电视

“第一个期待是对广告行业。广告行

资。以传媒、教育、体育行业为代表的无

网。贝塔斯曼有电视网络和全世界最有影

业是传媒行业非常重要的因素,新媒体的

烟工业,文卫教行业就构成了未来10年新

响力的出版社,他们正在收购企鹅,贝塔

谷歌竞价搜索也是广告。广告行业是传媒

的增长引擎。这是中国经济转型带来的契

斯曼也是全媒体集团。还有新闻集团,旗

行业主要收入来源。”陈杭说道。

机,而转型的主力包括文化产业。最后一

下拥有21世纪福克斯,还有3家美国电视

第二个期待就是传统媒体行业的改

个机遇是监管部门政策变化和制度带来的

台,有很多报纸和杂志,还有一些英国报

制。过去5年出现很多传媒行业上市的案

机遇。“我们非常有信心,文化产业的春

纸。迪士尼是全媒体公司,受众从幼儿到

子,在2007年到2012年期间上市传媒企

天刚刚开始,未来会有非常好的前景。”

老人,是一体化综合性的娱乐公司。迪士

业的个数已经超过了从1990年上交所开始

陈杭表示。

尼旗下有一个非常著名的频道ESPN,不

到2007年这17年的总和,可以看出新老

五大机遇构成了中国文化产业非常大

只做少儿,ESPN贡献了非常大的收入和

媒体在国内上市的热潮。海外上市更不用

的机会,但同时也面临着五大挑战。一个

利润。

说,过去十几年见证了中国互联网几座大

是科技含量不足,这是非常大的不足,中

中国的情况怎样?在跨地域和跨媒

山,百度和腾讯在海外的上市,还有其他

国云计算行业落后欧美国家十年,芯片和

体两个方面,与西方有不少的差距。跨地

公司在海外上市。传媒行业的改制以及企

软件落后西方国家也比较多,动漫制作工

域在互联网是无境界,但是在传统媒体领

业的资本化,成为新的状态,这种状态会

艺比西方国家有很大的差距,所有互联网

域,如果要跨省,一个地方出版集团跨省

继续下去。“未来5-10年我们可以看到更

创新模式都是在海外出来5到10年后才去

去收购,还是有很大难度。再比如报纸,

多传统媒体行业进行改制和重组,可以看

模仿。第二个是和金融结合有限。第三个

一张地方的报纸要跨省到另外地方收购报

到新媒体继续在海外登陆。”陈杭乐观地

挑战是跨媒体、跨地域比较难实现。第四

纸,还是有难度。“与西方国家相比,我

表示。

个挑战就是作家写了3年,人家3天就克隆

们认为新媒体实现了跨地域。但在传统文

32

机遇与挑战

May 2013

目前,中国已经有十家出版集团上

完了,就是版权的保护,这是非常大的挑


革和创新成果。” 4月12日新华网获得了国家级高新技 术企业的认定证书,对在市场上拼杀的很 多企业,可能并不是难以触及的目标,但 是对事业单位,一年半时间完成这样一个 过程,算是重要的成果。 一家互联网机构负责人与田舒斌交 流,说到这件事时,认为这对新华网意味 着转型的阶段性成果。由原来的权威内容 引领者,变成内容与技术创新的双重引领 者,这是第三方视角对这件事的看法。获 高新技术企业认定证书背后付出了很多系 统性的努力,在这个过程中就已经改变了 新华网作为单一重点新闻网站的形态,加 上之前推出的新版,业界也认为已经完成 了向综合门户网站的转型。 “我们自身并不用综合门户的字眼来 定位新业态的新华网,实际上布局的是综 合性的新闻信息,集成服务平台的概念, 这是我们在新闻网创新的路上迈出的重要 战。最后行业的不确定性太大。“我们出

也适应了世界性通讯社共同的道路,因为

布点。田舒斌介绍道,“包括新华网的云

版行业是一边在改革机制上市,一边面对

在世界传媒格局里,新华、路透,美联,

盘等一系列应用的推出,建立在云端应用

数字出版的挑战,这就构成了投资文化产

法新都在寻找新的路径,新华社走的就是

加上大数据处理基础上的新平台架构,使

业最大的挑战,你要有非常强的挑战CEO

全媒体路径。

新华网在未来成长过程中,进入了新的阶

带领团队,同时应对这两场革命。”陈杭 说道。

新华网的转型和变革非常重要的是依

段。”

托于新华社整体的优势,因为新华社这样

由官方新闻机构衍生出来的互联网企

一个庞大而遍布全球的采集体系和网络,

业,在扬长补短的过程中,不是去简单复

每天采集和发布非常多的全媒体内容,

制以往互联网机构所走过的成功路径,因

在新华网迄今为止为16年成长发展历

是变革过程之中释放优势的主要本钱,新

为互联网每天都是新的,特别是在云计算

程中,前13年是中央重点网站,在传播中

华网在转型过程之中,把这种优势释放好

和大数据背景下,出现了很多新机遇。

国和报道世界中发挥了突出的作用。最近3

用好,对传媒格局的塑造是非常重要的贡

年新华网在实施转型向互联网文化企业转

献。

新华网转型变革

“我们的目标在于创新性地应用好这 个时代赋予从业者的机遇,立志于创造出

型,在转型进程中倡导“权威声音,精确

新华网前13年重点是做新闻网站,职

在互联网长河中有新华网印迹的新技术应

表达”,倡导在产业领域拓展新的空间,

责就是发布好权威的声音,没有自身的经

用,这是我们在互联网变革转型过程中孜

设立了新华网产业园区,正在按照新目标

营和独立的技术系统。转型以后意识到真

孜以求谋划和实施的事情。”田舒斌说道。

部署新产业。

正要想成为合格的市场主体,成为有强大

新华网总裁田舒斌用“扬长补短,创 新创造”来概括新华社和新华网最近几年

竞争力的互联网文化企业,必须补自己的 短处。

人民网改制上市 新华网在补短,而人民网现在市值有

的转型和变革。对于新华社和新华网,在

田舒斌表示:“我们这几年功夫在补

100亿,市值非常高,市盈率也很高。人

传媒格局剧烈变化的时代,这样一家有81

上自己的技术短板、资金短板,还有市场

民网是国有新媒体企业,与民营企业竞争

年历史的国家通讯社,始终随着变革的脉

短板和其他一些短板。这几年转型在补短

非常不利,张朝阳和马化腾都有很大的股

络在变化。

的过程中正在塑造自己新的优势。创新是

份,而人民网总裁是没有股份的。募到了

最近几年新华社在向全媒体新闻信息

我们补上过去作为事业单位存在不足的重

几十亿人民币,但民营企业有的是几十亿

采集和发布的集团路径转型。这一转型契

要方式。我们在技术领域,在市场面前,

美元。国有新媒体走和民营新媒体差异化

合了国际传播领域格局的变化特点,同时

在接地气和服务于网民方面有一系列的变

的道路,差异化体现在哪里?激励机制不

May 2013

33


封面故事

新华网转型变革

如民营企业,资本实力不如民营企业,怎 么会实现100亿市值? 去年是廖玒最纠结的时候。上市之前 他带着高管团队在“北上广深”做了28场 路演,以说服投资者,或者向投资者说明 自己。

“人民网这几年的发展在走这一条

廖玒说道:“新老媒体这种碰撞,这

路径。我们更强调扬长,在海量的信息

种兴衰更迭是很残酷的事情,但是我们今

中,在碎片化的信息中,我觉得报纸如果

天不得不去面对。”

仅仅是发布信息,没有太大意义。《人民

很多人问同样的问题:“廖玒总裁在

日报》包括人民网,更多应该卖观点和看

人民网公司里没有一分钱的股份,让我怎

法。美国三大报80%以上的内容都不是新

廖玒在人民网工作了27年,一直做

么信任你?你怎么保证未来还有比较高速

闻,因为新闻比不过电视台和广播,也比

记者和编辑。他说道:“世界上可能有三

的发展?”廖玒回答道:“中国有一句老

不过互联网。我们卖得更多的是判断和观

种人是自尊心非常强的。一个是记者,号

话:让历史告诉未来。我建议你看前3年

点,包括舆情产品的市场占有率也可能比

称无冕之王,有句话说‘见官大三级’,

或前5年的财务报表,我们每年收入增长

较领先。”廖玒说道。

去政府和企业,不管说好的,还是批评坏

40%以上。”

的,人家都笑脸相迎、笑脸相送。还有是 医生和教师,自尊心非常强。”

上市的好处,之前觉得人民日报和

出版机构转企

人民网都挺有名,但事实证明上市给品牌

出版产业是中国文化创意产业的细分

去年是廖玒自尊心受冲击最大的时

更多的溢价。曾有一位员工告诉廖玒,他

领域。长久以来,此领域一直被国有出版

候。掌管着上百亿基金的年轻人,穿着背

去上海请客户吃饭,吃完饭后要开人民网

集团占有绝对主导地位,民营出版集团发

心来接待他,还经常要等对方。经过28个

股份有限公司的发票,对方马上说:“你

展相对不足。有消息显示,继地方出版集

昼夜的沟通,最后还是认可了人民网。当

们的股票卖得很好。”上市后更多人知道

团陆续成立和部分地方出版集团改制完成

时发行价是20元,开盘30.01元,开盘时

了。上市也形成倒逼机制,以前是《人民

后,2009年,新闻出版总署加速出版社的

的市值超过了《纽约时报》。4月中旬的市

日报》在管人民网,现在众多的投资者也

改企转制工作。在这一国资背景长期垄断

值是105亿左右,股价在40元左右徘徊,

在盯着。

的产业中,转制意味着中国出版产业的市

同时给人民网一个强烈的感受,就是

场化运作时代的到来,尽管会对民营出版

1月份廖玒去《纽约时报》交流,见

必须要有产品。中国一家著名网站说,今

集团产生一定的冲击,但从产业整体发展

到该报继承人。廖玒提出问题:“《纽约

年两会期间广告收入是3000万,收入超过

来看,消息利好。同时,转制对资本而言

时报》有160年的历史,但脸谱的市值是

4大门户广告之和,因为人民网两会期间广

意味新的进入机会。

你的5倍到8倍,你觉得这样公平吗?”继

告收入是4000万,超过了这家著名网站,

承人的回答是:“这是市场的选择,这是

而3000万还是4家门户之和。

最高到过44元,最低没有低于36元。

34

华尔街的选择。”

May 2013

国有出版集团转企改制推动中国出版 业市场化。一方面,改制后,国有出版集


国有出版集团转企改制推动了出版业的市场化

团与民营出版集团同台竞技,必然需要摒

生了很多机会。虽然数字出版真正赚钱的

认为,文化产业的投资弄得不好可能会名

弃原有的“官僚”作风,以市场为导向,

企业不多,但数字出版是出版业发展的大

利双失。

在进行资本重组的过程中,将利用其庞大

方向,这个趋势是不可逆转的。清科研究

“我们投了很多文化领域的公司,投

的资金与销售渠道抢占市场。同时,行业

中心分析师张亚男预计,短期内,与儿童

资如何退出?这是非常现实的问题。这个

上下游并购与引入战略投资将成为推动其

及教育相关的数字出版具有较大的发展空

行业需要更多的并购整合的退出,我觉得

发展的主要动力之一。另一方面,民营出

间,值得深度关注。另外,对于一些具有

上市不是最主要的方式。”倪正东说道。

版集团在这一节点中,虽然具有优秀的市

特殊资源的文化产业专项基金而言,传统

场化运营及图书策划能力,但面临更为严

出版社转制及上市孕育巨大金矿。

来,如果不与新媒体结合,不去拥抱互 联网或新的趋势,就要被淘汰掉。以前看

峻的竞争与挑战,资金短缺问题将尤为突 出。这些均为资本提供了切入点。

传统媒体必须和新媒体结合才有未

打造传媒帝国

到的一些杂志和报纸,有的放弃了,有的

数字出版引导着多股力量的融汇,

传统文化领域和新兴文化领域投资

关闭后完全转到互联网。传统出版都在收

在带来竞争的同时,必然孕育新的市场机

者也在变化,新旧势力的融合,还有新媒

缩,互联网收入则不断增加,有的已超过

会,以及庞大而快速的市场增量。对资本

体、新文化领域公司也在抢占传统文化领

50%,有的甚至超过70%。倪正东提醒

的吸引力不容小觑。

域,特别是社交媒体、游戏网站等都在抢

道:“不管是电视台还是电影或者电视剧

占传统文化领域的空间。

公司,都应该关注新媒体。”

清科研究中心分析师张亚男认为,面 对中国出版业巨大而深刻的变局,资本可

清科集团数据显示,2012年整个文

不管是上市的电影公司还是出版公

从三方面把握掘金机会。一是国有出版集

化创意产业投资案例数197个,吸引了13

司,市值也就是那么多,与华纳、新闻集

团转制过程中,一方面对中小民营出版社

亿美元,金额最多的是传媒娱乐行业,吸

团相距甚远,与全球第二大经济体的地位

或者图书策划公司存在并购行为,另一方

引了5.75亿美元。而相关领域,如网络游

很不匹配。

面剥离的子公司或者子业务线,如数字出

戏领域的投资比想象的要低,文化产业教

“中国需要形或新的文化娱乐传媒帝

版业务,将可能吸引外部资金的介入。二

育培训投资量也不大,广电和数字电视的

国。文化产业需要像互联网一样,出现像

是民营出版集团的规模化发展对于资金存

投资更少。

阿里巴巴、腾讯、百度那样的巨头。企业

在巨大的需求。三是大型出版集团资金重

清科集团总裁倪正东发问道:“大文

家和投资人要做的就是要打造3到5家中国

组上市的过程,需要借助有实力的PE或引

化产业或者文化娱乐产业到底是金矿,还

的文化传媒帝国,培育真正走向世界的中

入战略合作伙伴。

是迷宫,或是陷井?在文化娱乐的投资到

国‘贝塔斯曼’,这才是我们的方向。”

底是要名还是要利?或是名利双收?”他

倪正东说道。

数字出版及传统出版转制过程中产

May 2013

35


COVER STORY

Mobilizing the masses Chinese companies are setting the stage for an all-out onslaught in mobile commerce

T

hose amazed or even taken aback by China’s skyrocketing e-commerce data should not only take note of how much the PRC is buying online, but how it’s buying. Chinese customers ordered up to US$210 billion in goods online last year, according a report issued this month by global research firm McKinsey. Alibaba, the country’s largest online retailer, processed US$170 billion in online sales in 2012, more than the US’s eBay and Amazon combined. While similar statistics are widely circulated, another staggering e-commerce figure has not received the attention it deserves. Mobile commerce, or m-commerce, grew by more than 200% between 2011 and 2012, according to Chinese research group iiMedia. About US$7.7 billion in transactions were made last year and that could jump to an astonishing US$15.3 billion this year, according to McKinsey. “This is one of the hotspots this year … But the market is in its early stages,” said Mike Chen, an internet analyst at China Merchant Securities in Shenzhen. Alibaba and a few smaller internet firms put the trend in motion by developing platforms for mobile payment and shopping but now China’s mobile carriers are catching on. Last month, China Unicom, the country’s second largest service provider, signed a deal with Korean conglomerate SK Group to further drive growth in m-commerce.

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May 2013

China Unicom and SK will develop applications for mobile credit card transactions, discount coupons and pre-paid phone services much in the way that Google developed a “mobile wallet” package for Sprint subscribers to encourage m-commerce in the US. Although there have been trials with similar software on other Chinese carriers, this will be the first substantial move from one of China’s mammoth telecommunications companies to support mobile commerce in the country, Chen said. Expect more where that came from. As quickly as China took the world’s largest share of e-commerce business, it’s set to do the same with phone transactions. McKinsey predicted high growth

potential for m-commerce in China because “the average Chinese smartphone user has a higher tendency to shop online” compared to their US counterpart. Smartphone penetration in the US is about 42%, but m-commerce accounted for only 5.4% of the online shopping market in 2011. However, in China, where about 11% of the country used smartphones that year, about 4% of goods bought online were paid for via a mobile device in 2012. That trend will help make China the global leader in m-commerce. By 2015, m-commerce in China is projected to grow to become a more-than US$41 billion industry, surpassing the US$31 billion in estimated transactions in the US that year, according to data from Alibaba.


The greatest force thus far in Chinese m-commerce has no doubt been Alibaba. Last year, the company’s customer-to-customer marketplace Taobao hosted about 67% of the country’s m-commerce transactions, according to iiMedia. Alibaba said payment volume on Alipay, its online payment service, grew 546% via mobile devices in 2012. On November 11, China’s socalled “Singles Day” that celebrates the romantically unengaged, an average of 428 pairs of shoes were purchased every minute using mobile Alipay, the company said. About 2,800 clothing items, 300 digital products and 790 cosmetics were bought and sold in the same timeframe and totaled US$193 million by the end of the consumer holiday. Internet developer Shanghai Baiban is making a significant footprint in mobile spending as well. The company launched a mobile shopping platform called Zhuixin in 2011 which allows merchants to create mobile applica-

tions for their stores in minutes, McKinsey noted. If it’s any indication of how quickly attention has turned to m-commerce, Zhuixin accrued 20 million users after 13 months of operation and some 50,000 merchants join daily. To continue growing the m-commerce market, platforms such as Alibaba’s and Baiban’s will have to boost security. While Chinese are already tense about using personal financial information on their computers, there is a higher level of trepidation about having bank account access tied directly to a phone, Chen at China Merchant Securities said. “Security is the first challenge,” he said. “If you’re using a PC, people feel more comfortable. But if you use a phone for sensitive info, people worry about security.” Tie-ups such as the one between China Unicom and SK could bring some relief to these concerns. SK is Korea’s third-largest conglomerate and a global brand that will help ensure

m-commerce transactions through Unicom are in-line with international standards. By 2016, 1 billion people are expected to make upward of US$1 trillion in transactions via mobile devices, according to IT analysis firm IE Market Research. China’s share in that global sum will no doubt be substantial given that its smartphone market is set to double in 2013 alone. China’s two remaining mobile carriers should also develop trusted channels for mobile spending and actively take part in the global m-commerce market. Chinese consumers will mostly need time to grow comfortable with this new mobile technology. Initial caution toward e-commerce quickly dissolved and shopping on sites like Taobao on a computer is now second nature. If the rate that e-commerce has grown is any indication, it won’t be long before Chinese are as comfortable shopping on their mobile phones as they are on their computers.

May 2013

37


COVER STORY

Taxing Taobao New tax rules could weigh on the soaring sales of China’s e-commerce industry

I

n a restaurant in Shanghai’s Jing’an district, clientele exchange stories in throaty northern accents and use straws to suck the marrow from slow-cooked pig’s trotters. Faded Chinese New Year messages and jars of white liquor with snakes curled up inside them sit by the cash register. The restaurant belongs to a popular chain serving Dongbei, or northeastern, food in Shanghai. But despite the chain’s commercial success, the manager is reluctant to give customers fapiao, or the tax invoices that should be available with every sale in China. When he finally grudgingly hands over a slip of paper, it is for a slightly higher amount and is printed with the name of a clothing company. Sales tax evasion is rampant in China. Chinese authorities have succeeded somewhat in forcing businesses

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May 2013

to print fapiao by including a scratchoff section at the top of the invoice that gives customers the chance to win small amounts of cash. This encourages people to ask for invoices, and when restaurateurs or shop owners print the invoice off the governmentissued machine, the total is automatically reported to the tax authorities. But while this tactic forces some shops and restaurants into tax compliance, China’s rapidly growing e-commerce industry still exists in a gray area. Chinese consumers who buy cheap goods from popular websites like Alibaba’s Taobao.com rarely receive invoices with their purchases. The issue came to the fore at China’s National People’s Congress in March, when Wang Tian, the chairman of the Better Life retail chain, complained that online shops oper-

ating on Alibaba’s e-commerce platforms dodged US$5.6 billion (RMB35 billion) in taxes last year, a substantial portion of the more than US$16 billion (RMB100 billion) in taxes avoided by the entire e-commerce industry. (Taobao refuted Wang’s claims, saying that 94% of the stores on its platform made less than US$38,000 annually and were therefore not subject to tax.) That may soon change, however. In early March, China’s State Administration of Taxation released new regulations, effective April 1, for implementing online invoice management systems. Many analysts believe these systems, which automatically send information to the tax authorities, are smoothing the way for taxing the e-commerce industry. The regulations require all websites to issue invoices to customers who ask for them, though


they stop short of mandating that invoices be issued for all purchases. By raising costs for businesses, taxes would certainly dampen the e-commerce industry’s rapid growth. According to data from China’s E-Commerce Research Center, transactions in China’s online retail market grew 65% in 2012 to reach RMB1.32 trillion (US$210 billion). Boston Consulting Group estimates that, each year until 2015, 30 million new Chinese consumers will shop online – nearly the size of Canada’s total population. The burden of taxation would not fall equally on all segments of the industry. Taxes would have a far bigger effect on “consumer-to-consumer” (C2C) sites like Alibaba’s Taobao.com, a site similar to eBay in the US where consumers and small businesses sell their products. In contrast, China’s major “business-to-consumer” (B2C) sites – sites that more closely resemble Amazon, like Dangdang, 360buy and Alibaba’s Tmall – are already relatively tax compliant. The taxes are likely to particularly hurt Taobao.com, which holds around

95% market share in the C2C market. The platform is home to about 7 million vendors, mostly small companies. Many of these sellers “gain some competitive advantage by not paying taxes, and if they are required to pay taxes they might not be able to stay in the game,” said Mark Natkin, managing director of Marbridge Consulting, a Beijing-based telecom and IT advisory firm. “Either they would lose all of their profit margin, or they would find it too much of a burden to implement the systems and the record keeping required to do it.” The million-dollar question is exactly how big of an impact taxes would have on Alibaba’s revenue. Analysts had widely predicted that Alibaba is preparing for an initial public offering in Hong Kong that will value the company somewhere between US$55120 billion. The strict implementation of taxes in the e-commerce industry could reduce that valuation. The precise effect on Alibaba’s revenues would depend on how much the taxes reduce store spending on advertising, since the bulk of Taobao’s revenue is generated by vendors buy-

ing pay-for-performance advertising within the Taobao search function that directs shoppers to their individual store, Natkin said. For example, if a shopper searches Taobao for “mobile phone” ads for stores that have paid Taobao to be associated with that keyword appear on the right-hand side and at the bottom of the page, similar to search engines like Google or Baidu. Stores that pay more in taxes might have less money to pay for this advertising. But without knowing how widely taxes will be implemented, the effect is impossible to determine. One thing seems certain, however: Implementing these taxes is sure to take a while. Ensuring compliance among Alibaba’s millions of small store owners is a gargantuan task, and Alibaba has likely complained to relevant authorities that the cost would be prohibitive. Instead of relying Alibaba to police its platform itself, a much more logical approach would be for the tax bureau, public security and other authorities to first develop a clear system for identifying the owner and operator of individual stores, Natkin said. Then the authorities can pursue tax dodgers themselves. There are signs authorities are moving gradually in this direction, with B2C e-commerce site 6695.com recently reporting that it is testing mechanisms for verifying the identities of its online store operators. If implemented, sales taxes will take a toll on Taobao’s business and the e-commerce industry more broadly. Given the scale of the necessary operation, however, Chinese vendors likely still have a few years before the tax authorities come knocking.

May 2013

39


封面故事

新媒体营销有方 各大互联网企业深入拓展在线广告业务 文 | 晗军

媒体红红火火,实际的经营和盈利 情况如何?是不是叫好而不“卖

座”?在与传统媒体的市场竞争中,新媒 体具备哪些独特优势?祭出了哪些制胜 “法宝”? “2011年中国GDP是47万亿元, 广告行业是2000多亿人民币,占0.4%; 美国的GDP是15.09万亿美元,占GDP 的1%。”中国文化产业基金董事总经理 陈杭表示,“到2020年中国GDP再翻一 番,达到80万亿人民币,如果广告行业占 1%,就是8000亿元。” 在2000多亿元广告市场这块“大蛋 糕”中,互联网广告切割到了多少份额? 易观智库数据显示,2012年中国互联网广 告运营商市场规模达724.8亿元,也即占 到1/3左右,这一数据较2011年增长了近 一半。预计到2015年,中国互联网广告运 营商市场规模将达2275亿,较2012年增 长两倍多。 易观智库分析认为,2012年宏观经 济的影响及新兴媒体形式对门户媒体的流 量分流造成了门户媒体在广告主预算方面 的表现相对受到影响。同时,门户媒体的 广告预算大家,如房产、汽车、快消等行 业也多多少少存在广告预算收紧。 易观智库数据显示,2012年中国网 络视频市场广告收入为88.3亿元人民币, 较2011年增长82.7%,市场保持较稳定 的发展。预计2014年仍存在较高的增长势 头。 视频媒体的优势在哪里?“视频是技 术革命,改变了传输模式;真正的革命是 内容革命或新媒体革命。以前是网络电视 化,现在是电视网络化。视频内容因为有 了用户的参与就可以改变,这是互动娱乐 的模式。”PPTV副总裁张坤表示,“这 是传统电视模式没有办法提供的,而互联 社会化媒体还可以做创意收集、产品测试

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May 2013

网可以做到。”


三大厂商领跑网络广告 易观智库数据显示,2012年第四季 度中国互联网广告运营商市场份额中,百 度占到30.4%,阿里巴巴占到14.4%,谷 歌中国占5.9%,三家厂商继续占据市场前 三位置,领跑互联网广告市场。 百度凭借“关键字广告”领航中国互 联网广告市场。作为中国搜索引擎领域的 领军企业,在技术、产品、服务方面都具 有相当的实力和经验。关键字广告经过多 年的发展,开始发挥品牌效应,长尾资源 加速关键字广告市场的繁荣。百度搜索的 工具化功能辐射到更广的范围,以“搜索 +”为代表的模式将成为百度拓宽搜索定义 的重要方向。 阿里巴巴凭借强大的平台支撑进军互 联网广告市场,发展潜力巨大。作为最大

预计到2015年中国互联网广告市场将较2012年增长两倍多

的电子商务平台,阿里拥有强大的资源, 其资本实力也是其他平台无法望其项背 的,同时在关键字广告、品牌广告方面都 有布局。

要时间获得进一步印证。

话。其三,接受度非常的重要。因为在社

艾瑞咨询南方区客户群总经理吴畏认

会化媒体的内容都是主动选择,而不是被

为,社会化媒体主要是指由用户创造内容

动接收。其四,很多企业在社会化营销过

谷歌中国在海外市场具有绝对优势,

的新媒体,用户也在社会化媒体或社交网

程中积累了大量粉丝,只需要维持运行,

企业在海外市场的广告投放谷歌中国成为

络上进行互动。较多使用社会化媒体或者

以后做营销就可以直接针对自己的粉丝。

重要的渠道。

社交网络主要是博客、微博、网络社区和

营销成本非常低,一次性将微博和品牌维

论坛等,涵盖的范围非常广。

护好,以后就可以获得长期产出。

而“门户+社交”助跑腾讯进入互联 网广告市场领先者行列。传统门户广告方

社会化营销产业链是怎样的?以微

在微博上流传着一个段子:当你的粉

面,腾讯通过对传统门户广告收费模式的

博为例,会有很多加V的机构用户在微博

丝超过100,你就是一本内刊;超过1000

优化,帮助广告主实现网络营销效果的提

上从事营销活动,其中一些机构也许是广

个,你就是布告栏;超过1000万,你就是

升,同时为广告主减少投放成本,从而获

告主,可能会在微博上做广告。同时在微

电视台。

得认可;社交广告方面,腾讯推出社交广

博上也存在第三方开发者,比如说美图秀

吴畏认为,社会化营销不等于口碑

告系统,助力效果广告业务的发展,基于

秀、页游的厂商都在上面做第三方的应用

营销。“看到的数字并不等于质量,粉丝

社交网络QQ空间以及实名社区朋友网,

开发,为社会化媒体提供了更多的功能和

其实也不一定是客户,或者不一定是目标

推出“广点通”,通过这种开放平台的广

内容。

受众。信息或者广告发布了,并不代表他

告自助投放系统,实现了腾讯系产品之间

另外就是个人用户。微博只要交10元

们会看到。有可能会被埋藏在海量的信息

的人脉关系的打通,而这种平台之间的联

钱就可以成为会员,新浪微博会提供增值

中。即便这些信息被看到了,也不等于他

动性为广告主带来更多的效果营销价值。

服务,这就是社会化营销产业链。

们感兴趣。社会化营销的误区是看到的数

社交媒体助力精准营销

为什么企业会选择社会化媒体进行营

字跟实际情况会有差距。做社会化媒体营

销?吴畏认为主要有四大原因:其一,社

销,最重要的是要去了解它的目的。”

社交广告商业化探索初现成果。腾讯

交媒体不是小众应用,很多网民每天甚至

吴畏解释道,“社会化媒体营销就好像是

社区开放平台的社交广告产品的媒体价值

每小时都在通过PC或手机在使用社交媒

马,马只是工具和渠道,目的要的快捷最

获得以电子商务为代表的效果营销广告主

体。艾瑞咨询数据显示,2012年社交用户

终还是要看目的是什么。”

的认可。新浪微博的商业化进程开始存在

规模是4.2亿,可见社交网络用户覆盖之

微博、社交网络、传统社区等不同类

明显的动作。这使得社会化媒体的商业价

大。其二,社会化媒体提供与用户进行平

型的平台有不同的特点,因此营销方式与

值开始显现,但是从大市场层面,社会化

等交流的机会,每个用户或者说每个消费

营销思路会有所不同。有效的品牌营销是

媒体获得市场全面认可的程度还不高,需

者能够直接通过社会化媒体跟品牌直接对

由用户自愿、自主地发布内容。

May 2013

41


封面故事

艾瑞咨询建立了一套评估社会化媒 体营销的效果评估体系,设置了不同的 维度,广度上要看曝光度,包括转发、 评论、渗透;深度要看精准度,包括转化 率。 以曝光度为例,主要看评论数和转发 数和不重复的互动人数。还要看趋势,随 着营销活动的进行,用户在不断变化,数 字在不断变化,包括每天活动渗透用户的 增长数。此外,还有N级传播,好友传递 给你的信息又传递给他的好友,有非常多 层级的传播。精准度相当于“粉丝不等于 受众”,需要去分析受众是什么人,以及 活动覆盖多少受众,受众活跃度的情况和 被认证的情况,还包括受众原创率和互动 类型。 最后是转化率,粉丝增长数是其中一 个指标。吴畏表示:“如果是互动营销活 动,我们更多会去看粉丝数,包括活跃粉

越来越的用户愿意为使用新媒体而付费

丝数、认证粉丝数等数量的变化。如果是 电子商务,更好的评估是直接看转化和点

为什么这些顶级品牌都选择与百度合

供了指南。不同城市年搜索量的增长是不

击数、订单成交率,包括二次订单,这些

作?“有一个重要原因,就是每天在百度

同的。太原、长春、沈阳、西安、烟台的

都可以关注。如果目的是客户服务,指标

平台上有大量用户在搜索与品牌相关的信

奢侈品搜索量不断增加。通过搜索总量排

又会不一样。”

息。”王湛说道。

行的变化,可以向很多合作伙伴提供业务

社会化媒体还可以做创意收集、产品

统计数据显示,百度每天关于品牌词

测试,这些更多是通过投票或者观察互动

的搜索行为超过3亿次,每天与奢侈品相关

王湛表示,百度还有一个更重要的价

中的内容来做。“社会化媒体效果评估的

的搜索高达200万次,也就是每天有200万

值,很多城市现在还没有奢侈品店,当这

价值,可以从第三方角度给客户提供量化

人次希望了解与奢侈品有关的深度信息。

些城市的消费者对奢侈品感兴趣时,网络

的指标,同时协助客户梳理用户的内容,

在百度最受网民关注的品牌排行榜里,

就是他们获取信息的基本渠道。如果客户

挖掘优势,为后续的媒体价值提供导向

搜索量最大的是LV,一周有5万多次。第

在网上进行了非常好的品牌展示,对于传

性,帮助他们挖掘潜在客户群,实现精准

二名香奈儿,7天搜索量有3万多次。然

递正确的品牌印象可谓至关重要。

营销。”吴畏说道。

后是COACH、GUCCI、周大福、阿玛 尼、PRADA、爱马仕。

百度搜索指引奢侈品牌

42

参考。

全球奢侈品市场规模在不断地扩大, 随着经济的不断发展,人们的生活变得越

“从中可以看到,每天几千次,每

来越好,2012年全球奢侈品市场将达1.5

百度副总裁王湛介绍了世界顶级品牌

周几万次的品牌搜索,如果不能非常好地

万亿美元。中国无疑在里面占比和增长最

和百度之间的亲密接触。除了用户在用百

传递这些品牌的信息,可以说是非常可惜

快,预测2015年中国奢侈品总消费量将达

度进行搜索外,还通过百度平台为很多中

的。与奢侈品相关的大众关注点在哪里?

1800亿美元。世界所有著名品牌都把中国

小企业提供营销服务—这是最主要的服

产品、品牌、品牌官网、价格是2012年上

作为最重要的市场来运作和发展。在这种

务内容,到2012年已为50万家中小企业提

半年奢侈品行业搜索词的特征。”王湛说

情况下,通过中国最大的媒体平台与奢侈

供了营销服务。

道。

品用户进行深度接触,对品牌商来说是至

除中国的中小企业,世界顶级品牌最

从百度数据可以看到,搜索奢侈品最

近两年大多与百度进行了合作。如珠宝品

多的城市是北京、上海、广州、天津、深

百度与奢侈品的广泛合作是从2011

牌梵克雅宝、手表品牌百达翡丽、服饰品

圳、杭州、武汉、成都、南京、苏州。从

年开始的,2012年取得了突破性进

牌Burberry等等;LV全球总部也在2012

中可以看到中国不同城市对于各种各样奢

展。2010年有很多品牌在与百度沟通时,

年4月与百度签约合作。

侈品品牌的关注度,也为他们发展业务提

非常注意沟通人群、沟通对象的分类,对

May 2013

关重要的。


告还组建了优秀的团队,CEO是全球知名 搜索专家,在加入盛大之前是雅虎全球资 深副总裁,负责雅虎全球搜索业务。朱敬 之前也在负责雅虎全球的竞争广告平台, 很多人才来自于国内各大互联网和广告公 司。盛大还在美国硅谷创建了一家研究 院,积累了很多在广告算法和海量用户数 据挖掘领域的人才。 “优秀团队和先进的产品及技术,配 上海量用户数据和丰富的媒体资源,这就 是我们广告的核心竞争力。”朱敬说道。 盛大广告平台不仅为自有广告主服 务,还通过私有广告交易平台(Private AD Exchange)提供给第三方的需求方平 台(DSP),这些都是互利的。媒体方能 够拿到更多收入,而DSP作为广告主的代 理,也可能拿到更多的优质流量和用户。 盛大同时与少数DSP深入合作,在DSP不 得侵犯用户隐私的前提下,提供一部分数 据,帮助他们提高变现能力。 于中国的主流消费群或者有实力购买奢侈

频、影视、动漫、音乐,已建立起门类众

盛大广告平台还引入了VCU,全称

品的这群人,平时的信息获取习惯,从什

多、丰富多样的娱乐内容平台。盛大注册

Value Creating Users(创造价值的用

么样的媒体接触外界,还在分析研究。

用户也已达到14亿,其中有超过1.4亿的

户)。盛大的内容很多不是盛大自己创造

他们还比较怀疑上网的主力人群和他们的

活跃用户和超过1400万的付费用户。

的,如网络小说是作者写的,视频是别人

主力消费群之间是不是能够有很好的切合

盛大作为内容为王的公司,为什么会

制作后上传的,这些作家和视频上传者是

点。但是两年后,现在的主力消费人群,

去经营广告业务?盛大在线CTO&盛大集

真正的价值创造者,也就是VCU。这些

上网比例在大幅度增加。

团副总裁朱敬表示:“因为盛大是优质的

VCU遍布盛大所有的产业链,盛大与VCU

“未来移动互联网是不是奢侈品关

自有媒体,拥有优质的内容。盛大游戏、

之间相互依赖、相互依存,盛大希望VCU

注的平台?现在还不太关注,因为习惯用

盛大文学和酷六集中了很多付费和不付费

通过创造内容,丰富盛大的内容库来吸引

手机上网的人还很年轻。但年轻意味着未

的用户,而广告主希望达到非常优质的用

更多的用户。而VCU则希望通过盛大平台

来,当这些年轻人成长为主流消费人群

户群。这些流量资源需要变现,而广告是

来找到用户、获取收入,帮助他们更好地

时,奢侈品品牌就要把自己主要的营销平

非常好的变现方式。”

生存,产生更多内容。

台挪到他们最习惯的平台上。我相信,未

前几年盛大基本以用户的付费收入为

VCU与盛大广告平台是什么关系?

来移动互联网也是全球最著名品牌的重要

主。朱敬相信,随着广告产品的不断发展

“有很大关系,因为VCU的内容需要被推

营销阵地。”王湛表示。

和成熟,广告收入会逐渐取代用户付费收

广,从广告角度来说,实际上他们是潜在

入,成为盛大收入快速增长的引擎。这也

的广告主,与所有广告主需要获取的目标

是盛大在一年多前开展广告业务的原因。

非常一致。”朱敬表示,“VCU的内容会

百度在2012年全资收购了爱奇艺,未 来可以拥有更广泛的营销平台来做这些服 务。“希望通过百度提供的创新产品和有

一年多来,盛大广告积累了非常大的

带来各种各样的用户,这些用户实际上又

创意的设计,提升品牌image,帮助更多

优势,发展迅猛。在媒体资源方面,盛大

是潜在的消费群体,可以帮助我们通过广

的奢侈品品牌和其他品牌。”王湛说道。

不仅拥有自己的媒体,还不断拓展外部的

告来变现。”

盛大VCG推动广告变现

优质媒体资源,为广告主提供更多选择和

“通过广告平台能够帮助VCU推广内

全面服务。盛大拥有海量的用户数据,特

容,而VCU可以从中获取用户和收入,这

10多年前盛大的“传奇”开创了中国

别拥有很多注册付费用户的数据,通过先

样内容制造者的生态体系才能够健康稳定

网游行业的先河。发展至今,盛大已不只

进的数据挖掘能力,通过算法匹配、精准

的不断发展。这对盛大和VCU都是非常重

是以游戏为主的公司,业务涵盖文学、视

广告,让广告主获得较高的收益。盛大广

要的。”朱敬说道。

May 2013

43


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众在来到展会现场之前,已经对于自己关心的游艇型号有了资料

一人”郭川的真容。

搜集和基本了解。”不少展商表示,在洽谈过程中,发现买家大 多具有了清晰明确的购买意向才特意到展台咨询。参观者不再是 以往走马观花,而是趋向于理性消费专业化操作。

行业利好推动,2014游艇展已现火爆预定 近年来,随着游艇的神秘面纱正在逐步揭开,游艇行业已 经引发了各方的重视,在政府层面对游艇行业也是利好不断。据

整合度:三展各有收获 多维展示高端休闲生活

悉,国家旅游局在“十二五”发展规划中将游艇作为发展水上旅

中国(上海)国际游艇展不仅仅是游艇展览本身,而是有效

游的重要载体,国家发改委发布的鼓励发展产业目录也将游艇产

整合了中国(上海)尚品生活展(ELS)、国际休闲产业展(Expo

业纳入其中。包括深圳、天津、上海在内的17个省市都将游艇业

Leisure)三大展会。三大展会既有效结合又相互补充,构成了全

列入地方“十二五”规划中。在国家各项政策的推动下,游艇产

产业链的“金三角”格局。国际休闲产业展(Expo  Leisure)是首

业已经从富豪的游戏,转变为全民参与的健康生活方式。

推的新成员,竭力打造“全运动”展概念,分为水上休闲、户外

船艇展创办人、中国船舶工业行业协会船艇分会理事长、上

休闲和休闲健身三大展区;中国(上海)尚品生活展(ELS2013)

海船舶工业行业协会副会长兼秘书长杨新发表示:“国务院公布

与以往相比,将多维度呈现高端休闲的新兴生活模式。

的《国民旅游休闲纲要》是对‘美丽中国’的新注解,对中国游

英国海事协会(BMF)国际发展部主任Amanda  Simpson表

艇产业发展和中国滨水休闲旅游产业指明了前景和方向。纲要的

示:“中国(上海)国际游艇展是我们在亚洲参展以来成交量最

颁布给游艇产业增添了新的市场机会,游艇休闲装备制造业有望

大的海外展会。”意大利、美国、澳大利亚、西班牙、中国台湾

成为纲要实施过程中最先受惠的产业之一,中国游艇业的发展将

六大展团,纷纷给予中国(上海)国际游艇展高度评价。从现场

大有可为。”

了解的数据,今年休闲船艇与游艇周边配套服务,销售情况良

据主办方透露,今年游艇展刚刚闭幕,2014年中国(上海)

好。顺业船舶在展会首日,现场展示了12艘摩托艇及全地形车,

国际游艇展已经接受到各国展商的火爆预定。2014年中国(上

全部在四天内售罄,总价约400万。海飞橡皮艇HVENUS320,销售

海)国际游艇展将于2014年4月10日至13日举行,地点依然选在上

200艘。巴富仕游艇在四天展会招募15人次游艇驾校培训学员,表

海世博展览馆。


访谈

乐享游艇生活 专访毅宏游艇执行总裁叶蓉蓉

刚落下帷幕的上海国际船艇及其技 术设备展览会上,毅宏游艇收获颇

丰。现场成交2艘160英尺双体游览船,总 价5000万。同时还获得总价约7000万的 游艇意向订单15条。在本届上海国际游艇 展举办前夕,毅宏游艇执行总裁叶蓉蓉女 士在上海外滩的游艇体验中心希仕会接受 了本刊采访。 叶蓉蓉先后获得复旦大学经济学院国 际金融学士学位和美国康奈尔大学酒店管 理硕士学位。回国后,她进入家族所有的 毅宏集团。此后,叶蓉蓉率先在国内提出 游艇“4S”店的概念,成立集游艇推广、 体验、营销和售后服务的游艇俱乐部希仕 会,成为体验式营销计划的主持人,并筹 建了上海公司。 问:毅宏集团是因怎样的契机进入游 艇产业的? 答:最早是投资部投资了福州一家 船厂,我们占30%股份。这家船厂的产 品出口欧洲。刚开始不太重视,半年后一 条船交付给法国,举行了试水仪式。我父 亲感觉非常好,因为我们是在海边长大 的,游艇唤起了我们对海的亲近感。2004

叶蓉蓉

年、2005年的时候,厦门还没有几条游 艇。我们针对游艇市场做了调查和可行性 分析。发现当时美国游艇产业的年产值达

46

问:与意大利品牌的合作给你们带来 了什么?

问:目前你们拥有哪些品牌?内销占 了多大比例?

到500亿美元,而中国几乎是零—可能

答:与意大利合作后,他们派了几位

答:在我们的品牌中,Sea-stella是

有一些厂家在帮国外做代工,但没有自己

工程师过来,对生产过程和质量进行监控

在2008年后开创的原创品牌,主要是70

的品牌。我们觉得随着收入的提高,国

和把关。意大利人对细节的要求十分考究

英尺以下的游艇,还有内湖版的水晶宫殿

内消费者对游艇的需求会稳步增长,市场

和细致,可说是精益求精,这也造成了我

50英尺游艇,高端品牌水神(AQUITA-

潜力很大。于是,我们就将福州这家船厂

们对细节的考究。通过反复磨合后,质量

LIA)系列豪华游艇则有意大利“血统”,

全资收购下来,搬迁到离厦门比较近的漳

提到了新的高度。现在,连一些国外同行

与Sea-stella是错位的,主要针对亚洲和

州,购置了土地,加大了投资,并与意大

都对我们的质量交口称赞。我们也算替中

中国客户。2005年到2008年,我们与意

利品牌合作。我们是第一家与意大利合作

国高端制造业争了口气。但也应该看到,

大利品牌合作,一开始是贴牌生产,主要

生产游艇的国内厂家。举行开工仪式时,

我们才刚起步,而一些国际著名造船厂已

是外销。后来受到金融危机影响,欧洲市

我们还把西班牙足球俱乐部皇家马德里的

有上百年的历史,有很多值得我们学习的

场萎缩。2009年至2010年,我们将这家

主教练请来造势,在当年还颇有影响。

地方。

意大利合作方收购下来。近几年,欧洲市

May 2013


水神系列95英尺超豪华游艇

场不是很好,很多欧洲品牌想进入中国市 场。我们产品以内销为主,这两年90%是 内销。而销售业绩这几年基本每年在翻倍 增长。

问:这几年国内客户在需求上和构成

买的比例开始大幅提升,这是好兆头。

上有哪些变化? 答:我们产品进入国内市场后,每做

问:怎样理解游艇生活方式?

一条船型,都会根据客户的需求来定制。

答:游艇是高端的休闲行业,更是一

现在的国内客户,不只是把游艇当作奢侈

种生活方式。可以在休息天举家在游艇上

问:如何满足国内客户的特殊需求?

品,他们也注重实用性,也看性价比。前

栖息休闲,体验亲水的感觉,其乐融融,

答:在本届上海国际游艇上,我们带

几年,我们客户绝大多数来自企业,特别

因此很能吸引女性参与。大概在读大二

来水神系列中最大的95英尺超豪华游艇,

是民营企业。企业客户的需求是刚性需

时,我第一次乘坐了游艇,海浪就在眼前

是为国内客户360度全方位定制的。国内

求,大多是为项目做配套,如俱乐部、旅

翻腾着,海风扑面而来,我是在海边长大

客户要求游艇的外型时尚和具有美感。我

游公司,购买游艇的目的是为旅游休闲

的,当时的感觉真好。现在,我也非常喜

们产品沿用了意大利品牌的流线型。同

项目配套。我们游艇的售价从200多万到

欢享受游艇生活方式。目前主要是体验,

时,还根据国内客户喜欢宽敞的特点,加

3000多万人民币。这两年,个人和家庭购

还没有时间去学习自己驾驶游艇。

大了游艇的宽度和长度。比方原来是6米到 6.5米的宽度,被拓宽到了7米。水神系列 游艇主要用于商务接待,设有沙龙区、会 客区、视听室、会议室。会客区位于下甲 板,宽度接近最大船宽,配有商务洽谈用 的沙发、棋牌设施、烧烤台等,下甲板接

游艇产业要大发展 中国船舶工业行业协会船艇分会理事长/中国船舶工业行业协会副秘书长/上海船舶工 业行业协会副会长兼秘书长杨新发表示,将来游艇旅游产业要大发展,有以下一些 思考: 如何大力发展游艇产业?最近有家民营企业正在兴建中国最大的游艇俱乐部,

近船中央的位置是全船最宽的区域,可设

满足高档和中层民众的需求。未来能不能发展绿色的游艇产业、绿色的观光团?游

计为会议室,两侧的宽大舷窗能保证足够

艇产业与滨水产业的发展,都是需要努力的。能否提供舒适安全的材料与装备?中

的采光。

产阶层和广大民众如何玩水、钓鱼等?经营管理模式上,有一家游艇俱乐部提出,

53英尺的水晶宫殿系列是为内陆水

买它的船,3年连本还你。现在很多基金等融资经营机构都想参与游艇产业的发展。

域设计的定制型游艇。国内客户不太喜欢

目前游艇产业还是多在“私享家”阶段,是少数富人的玩物。现在还不能称为“游

户外活动,但又希望室内空间不要太暗,

艇时代”,只有广大的中产阶层和民众能享受到游艇的乐趣,才是游艇产业发展的

要有宽阔、通透的视野。我们设置了360

方向。中国产品现在正在进入世界各大经济市场,三亚将发展成为中国的加勒比

度全透明的观景舷窗,从几乎全透明的船

海。国家水利部提出未来要进行500个水利项目的开发。游艇产业会有大发展。游艇

顶和船侧可以最大限度地增强游客亲水的 感受。游艇内部空间很大,舱内面积约为 40平方米,可满足24人以上的商务接待需 求,游客可以进行品茶、下棋等多种休闲 娱乐。这些都为国内客户特别设计。

也将象其他的健康的户外运动一样,让人们尽情投入大自然。在更广泛的范围内, 发展游艇生活。生活在呐喊,在呼唤游艇生活方式。要培养游艇记者,记者是传播 生活方式的主力军。相信通过游艇产业界努力和投资者的热情,能把游艇文化传播 开来,用美丽的中国山水,吸引更多的外国人、中国人投入到游艇生活中去,为美 丽中国注入新的活力。

May 2013

47


INTER VIE W

A China moment Brian Wong, CEO of advertising platform Kiip, points out innovation and inefficiency in the mainland’s advertising market

advertising capacity can support firms like Kiip.

What kind of presence does Kiip have in China?

W

arning: Brian Wong is marketing your “moments.” That’s what the 21-year-old Chinese-Canadian entrepreneur calls serendipitous online achievements. Wong’s advertising platform, Kiip, gives users rewards when they complete simple actions on their computers or smartphones. Finish a shopping list on your iPhone and Kiip might give you a coupon for a soft drink. Beat a level in a computer game and get a bag of Skittles candy. While users are racking up rewards, Wong is selling these moments of completion to companies, such as Pepsi. The users get rewards and the companies pay to pop up on screens to present the award. The app has drawn valuable attention. As 2012 drew to a close, Kiip tallied US$15 million in venture capital from some of the biggest names in the

48

May 2013

IT business. His company has offices around the world, from San Francisco to London to Hong Kong, and partnerships with more than 40 major brands such as Best Buy and Disney. Wong, from Vancouver, Canada, spoke with China Economic Review on the sidelines of Transition China, an entrepreneurial forum in Shanghai. Although smartphone users in Japan and in some Southeast Asian countries can download Kiip to their phones, the startup has not entered the Chinese market. Wong is nevertheless keeping a close watch of the rapidly developing mainland advertising market, where he says online ad platforms are still rudimentary. But with Chinese companies such as Tencent and Sina becoming powerhouses of IT innovation, it seems only a matter of time until China’s

We have a small sales office in Tokyo. We’ve started doing campaigns with Mitsubishi ... We also launched a campaign with Lawson’s last month where the reward was their fried chicken product. It was awesome. It was one off the coolest campaigns we’ve ever ran. It was great because Japanese people are usually much more in tune with what their phones are capable of doing. It’s a cultural thing; they were the first country to have 3G. That’s the reason why they are so far ahead of anyone else. That’s why we chose to start [our Asia launch] in Japan.

So no presence in China yet? No not yet. We’ve done some campaigns in Southeast Asia with Colgate and an agency out here called MEC. We’re starting to figure out what we could do more. China is very unique, it’s definitely it’s own world. Given the rapid increase in mobile usage in China, it seems like a place you’d want to be. I do want to make sure we tap into that dynamic.

What is your outlook on China’s mobile internet market? The internet penetration here is something like 40%. Here’s my prediction: Some of that internet penetration is


going to be taken up by 4G broadband access. The first device people in developing cities are going to buy is a tablet; I think that’s going to make huge implications in mobile growth. That’s what you’re seeing in Indonesia. Their first internet enabled device is not a PC, it’s a smartphone.

What do you know about advertising on the mainland? There’s a lot of money locked into TV. I know there’s a lot of potential in mobile, but it hasn’t been figured out yet. A lot of ad networks in China have failed. They aren’t exactly the most prevalent way for advertising to be bought and sold.

What are you seeing as far as innovation in advertising goes in mainland China? Rovio did a promotion with McDonalds where you could get some kind of reward when you play Angry Birds near a McDonald’s. That was pretty innovative. In general, let’s face it, the amount of innovation perse in the

advertising industry in China is very nascent, in its early stages still. Mobile is a unique thing that’s growing. You have brands that are trying to figure out what they want to do there. I think if you want to see somewhere where this kind of innovation can go, look at Japan and Korea. Where you have a much more evolved set of chat apps. WeChat is very early in its evolution. [In Korea] you have Line, WhatsApp and Kakaotalk. Line has its stickers you can buy. That’s an interesting revenue and advertising model. Stuff like that. The buy model [of advertising] is still stuck in the dark ages. You have these portal sites that still charge on a cost-per-day basis. We live in 2013. That’s like a newspaper model. It’s very archaic the way that they are buying and selling digital advertising.

There’s talk of Tencent moving into e-commerce on the WeChat platform. From an advertising perspective, what is the most effective way to tie that into the platform?

Any time you tie direct commerce, m-commerce, to any type of social interaction product that has a massive adoption, you have many different possibilities. Here’s an interesting corollary: Look at GroupMe in the States, [which] now recently added a “splitthe-bill” type of functionality. You can pay back your buddies in a chat. But it’s very smart. Here’s an example, I was in Vegas a few weeks ago and a lot of people in the group owed me money after a few nights. And using GroupMe you can split the bill. It takes into account the socializing and the purchasing that happens from the socializing. WeChat bringing into the fray m-commerce and digital goods selling could be very interesting considering the massive adoption, the 200 million plus downloads. That’s enough of an adoption that if you adopt a mobile payment solution, and only 10% use it, that’s 20 million users. That’s way more traction than any mobile payments service has had.

What’s the next step for Kiip? More vertical expansion. We started with games, then we went to fitness and health, then later productivity and utility. Next, music, travel, financial services – like hitting your savings goal. Exponential growth comes from international [business]. That’s why we set up basic infrastructure in Tokyo and London. The next parts of our growth are wildcard products we like to create. We have an innovative product team based in San Francisco. We have a top secret product that we are going to be releasing later this year that’s going to be pretty awesome. If I can figure out how to continue to out-innovate ourselves – that’s one of the things I want to keep happening.

May 2013

49


理财

另类投资的春天 另类投资已经居高净值人群投资方向的第三位

国56%高净值人群拥有另类投资,

“投资得一种超然,生活得一份静

上,已经远超杂志、报纸和电视的使用。

这是兴业银行与胡润研究院联合发

心。”兴业银行行长李仁杰表示,“与其

从省市分布看,北京拥有高净值人

布的《2013高净值人群另类投资白皮书》

他财富报告不同,这份白皮书是一幅投资

数最多,占17%。其次是广东、上海和浙

所透露的。白皮书分析了中国高净值人群

理念和生活哲学相互交错的生活素描。”

江,共占全国的61%。 浙江由于去年民营

的规模和他们对另类投资需求的现状和未

虽然房地产和股票仍居高净值人群

来发展趋势。报告中的另类投资指艺术

投资方向的第一和第二位,达到76%和

经济发展遭遇挑战,较多的民营企业出现

品、酒类、钟表、珠宝玉石等一系列属性

65%,但另类投资已经居高净值人群投资

更为特殊的投资标的。今年是胡润研究院

方向的第三位,投资比例达到56%,有明

和兴业银行第二年联合公布600万资产高

显提高。艺术品、珠宝玉石、酒和钟表都

高净值人群未来对艺术品、钟表、珠

净值人群的数量。

是受青睐的另类投资方向。作为国际另类

宝玉石以及公务机的投资意向都有不同程

资金链问题,高净值人群增速放缓。

投资意向有升有降

虽然去年中国GDP增长了7.8%,但

投资热点之一的老爷车,在中国尚未发展

度的上升,而酒类投资意向基本持平。增

受到房地产宏观调控和股票市场的影响,

起来。但是另类投资也有风险,包括:流

加投资额的最重要原因是出于个人兴趣,

高净值人群增长速度有所放缓。600万资

动性较弱、交易费用较高、市场不规范、

而减少投资的主要原因为市场不规范和变

产以上的高净值人群上升比例仅为4%,有

监管机构缺乏、对知识储备要求更高等。

现难等。

280万人。其中,亿万资产以上的高净值

高净值人群另类投资的平均年限大

高净值人群最希望得到艺术品相关的

人群上升比例是过去4年最低水平,仅为

都在4-5年,也就是在2008年金融危机后

金融服务,达55%。45%的高净值人群

2%,有6.45万人。

开始投资。高净值人群在做另类投资时最

听说过艺术品基金,其中超过3成表示将

胡润百富董事长兼首席调研员胡润说

频繁的信息来源是专业人士的意见,达到

来有可能购买。听说过葡萄酒基金的高净

道:“当股市和房地产受到影响的时候,

74%。同时,投资带有明显的圈层特征,

值人群达到24%,其中超过4成有购买意

中国富豪对另类投资的热情明显提高。另

信息来源于社交活动的占65%,口碑也是

向。10%的高净值人群知道公务机基金,

类投资比较复杂也需要长期的投入,成功

非常重要的信息来源,占40%。而在媒

其中有购买意向的接近一半。

的另类投资者更可以获得他人的尊重。”

体的使用上,网络成为首选,占到一半以

高净值人群目前参与艺术品投资的占 到64%,而未来有意向投资艺术品的达到 78%。因此,未来艺术品投资需求仍较为 旺盛。中国书画,包括现当代书画和古代 书画是主流投资品类,投资比例达40%。 投资艺术品的信息来源突出表现了艺术收 藏的圈层特征。艺术收藏最重要的三个信 息来源分别是:朋友推荐占65%;社交活 动占61%;俱乐部或协会占46%。艺术 品投资最主要的渠道有:自行国内购买占 75%以上,50%通过拍卖行,45%自行海 外购买,30%通过经纪委托代理。 高净值人群酒类投资达48%,其中葡 萄酒投资占39%,超过中国白酒。年龄越 大的高净值人群投资酒类的时间更久,45 岁以上的投资资历平均达4.8年。5000万 资产以上的高净值人群进入市场也较久,

兴业银行与胡润研究院联合发布另类投资白皮书

50

May 2013

平均为5.3年。74%高净值人群投资酒类


高净值人群的个人投资通常会分为不同的层级

的原因是出于爱好,半数高净值人群表示

资钟表最重要的考虑因素,其次是工艺,

巨大潜能。在投资方式上,听说过公务机

投资是为了自己饮用,另外也有不少人投

占62%,产地考虑居第三,占54 %。高净

租赁的亿万资产以上高净值人群达到了3

资葡萄酒是为了交际需要或是受身边朋友

值人群目前从事钟表投资的占22%,未来

成,而其中使用过的人仅为12%,有意向

的影响。自行购买是高净值人群参与酒类

有意愿进行手表投资的占35%,投资意愿

使用的为53%,也就是说有16%的高净值

投资最常见的途径,由于国内购买较为便

大幅上升,而上升的热点主要在于投资古

人群未来有意向使用公务机租赁服务。

利,已达71%。而因海外免税政策的优

董表,从10%上升到25%。

投资晋级享受幸福

势,海外购买也占一半以上。酒类投资最

受访的高净值人群中目前有60%投资

主要信息来源都与社交活动有关,57%通

珠宝玉石,投资珠宝玉石最主要的因素是

伴随着财富的成长,高净值人群的个

过朋友推荐;其中分别有53%和52%通

个人兴趣爱好。对女性来说,珠宝作为装

人投资常常会分为三个层级。第一层级为

过社交活动和俱乐部。因此酒类投资的圈

饰品比收益保值更重要。钻石以7成的占

财富投资。在财富积累的阶段,投资以财

层特征也非常明显。高净值人群投资酒类

比牢牢占据该人群中投资珠宝玉石类的榜

富增值为终极目标,而投资标的往往选择

的首要考虑因素:年份占81%,品牌占

首,其中,45岁以上的人群更偏爱钻石。

市场热点,在市场走弱之后则迅速转换标

77%,产地占66%。

此外,彩色宝石关注比例稳步上升,蓝宝

的。第二层级为兴趣投资。在拥有稳定可

石、祖母绿、猫眼石上升趋势最为明显,

观的财富之后,高净值人群不再热切追求

女性的热情大大高于男性。

财富快速增长,而选择从自己的兴趣爱好

较早开始钟表投资的高净值人群在 2007年就已进入市场,投资钟表的平均 时间为4.1年,也就是2009年为投资高峰

在投资方式上,受访高净值人数都首

出发,同时达到财富的保值,投资标的往

期,5000万资产以上的高净值人群进入市

选自行在国内或海外购买,比例分别达到

往被长期持有,即使在市场转冷之后仍然

场的时间更长,平均为4.6年。投资钟表的

了69%和53%。未来珠宝玉石的投资意向

作为收藏或把玩的物品以带来精神享受和

目的首先是出于个人爱好,占到74%,其

达到70%,选择继续投资珠宝玉石的高净

愉悦。第三层级为心灵投资。投入是为了

次是看重钟表的保值功能,占到47%。

值人群中表示会增加投资的比例有3成,其

带来心灵的成长和内心的满足,投资没有

中女性的增加意愿高于男性13%。

直接的金钱回报,而在于个人心灵的充实

高净值人群投资钟表最重要的途径是 自行购买,其中选择海外购买的达76%,

在投资公务机时,亿万资产以上的高

这主要是由于国外税收的优势和近年来高

净值人群的前三大考虑因素分别是:品牌

和幸福感的提升。 “另类投资正以其特有的方式对中国

净值人群国际旅游频率的增加;选择国内

占81%、口碑占64%,专业人士意见占

高净值人群的财富结构、投资文化乃至生

购买的达57%,使用经纪/委托代理、金融

61%。亿万资产以上的高净值人群有计划

活品味等方方面面产生潜移默化的影响。

机构、二手市场和拍卖行的都相对较少,

购买公务机的比例达15%,购买意向比去

深入研究高净值人群的另类投资具有特别

不足2成。73%高净值人群把品牌作为投

年增加了2%,这映射出中国公务机市场的

的意义。”李仁杰表示。

May 2013

51


REPOR T

Big boys’ toys The people in China buying yachts and private jets aren’t who you would expect

O

n an unseasonably hot day in mid-April, a line of sternfaced Chinese businesspeople formed next to a private jet in a ropedoff section of Shanghai’s Hongqiao airport. While the humorless bunch weren’t gathered around the biggest plane on the lot – that distinction went to a Boeing 737 converted into a business jet – they were queuing to see the centerpiece of the exhibition, a new US$65-million Gulfstream jet, what its manufacturer calls the biggest and fastest in its fleet. A week earlier, a similar cast of characters gathered at Shanghai’s expo grounds to inspect what were the world’s top-of-the-line yachts. In a country where the rich have embraced Louis Vuitton, Audi and other luxury brands as status symbols, private jets and yachts on offer at these shows would seemingly be the ultimate topend purchase. But most buyers of these jets and yachts displayed at the respective shows didn’t hail from China’s superrich business class, nor were they disobedient mandarins ignoring President Xi Jinping’s mandate for official austerity. While China’s legion of millionaires and billionaires who can afford such big-ticket luxury items grows by the day, a September report from Hong Kong-based Cheuram Consulting Group shows that yacht ownership is low among China’s superrich and many show only a passing interest. Rather, it is corporations that have the

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May 2013

biggest appetites for these vehicles of the mega-rich, which is also the case for private jets, analysts and those in the industry say. Granted, in the West it is not unheard of for a corporation to own a yacht or private jet. But these big boy’s toys are much adored by the superrich in developed countries because they offer the privacy, convenience and luxury that many desire but only those with an impressive stature of capital can afford. In China, however, they are seen more as a business tool.

A market from sea to sky Mainland demand for private jets and yachts has steadily increased over the last decade, those in the industry say. “When you look back at the greater China region we had about 20 airplanes in the region in 2007. Today we’re over 110 – that’s grown by a factor of five in such a very short period of time,” said Steve Cass, a spokesman for Gulfstream Aerospace. Growth in China for private jets isn’t limited to Gulfstream, as Beijing continually relaxes rules regarding private aircraft ownership and use of low altitude airspace. Currently there are approximately 336 private jets operating in China, with an estimated 40 on order this year (compared to 27 last year), Bloomberg News reported, citing an industry analyst. In the yacht sector, growth is equally as impressive. Italy, the largest foreign player in the yacht sector, export-

ed US$1.2 million in yachts to China in 2006; the country did US$62.8 million in exports in 2012. A report issued by the country’s Shanghai trade office states that sales grew 59.5% year-onyear in 2012.

Wanted: New, luxurious and not made in China Companies driving this growth often buy yachts and planes for similar reasons. As with private jets, the mostly corporate buyers view yachts as a business tool to impress clients. While Western yacht owners might use their vessels as floating hotels for a private getaway, complete with lavish bed-


Credit: Sam Reynolds

rooms, the Chinese use the boats as a venues to entertain business contacts and prefer mahjong lounges and karaoke rooms to bedrooms. In both the yacht and private jet sectors, foreign brands are seen as the surest way to impress. That, combined with almost no domestic specialization, means Chinese brands are practically non-existent. Foreign companies have a lock on the yacht market, with Italian firms controlling 36% of the market followed by US firms at 25% and UK with 11%. In the private jet market, there are no alternatives to the US plane makers Gulfstream and Boeing, Europe’s Airbus and Dassault and Canada’s Bombardier. Chinese customers prefer foreign yachts over domestic brands because of fears that they are not mechanically sound or seaworthy. Chinese also prefer bigger, more expensive boats and

planes as they are often viewed as symbols of a person or company’s status.

Clipped wings A heavy regulatory burden further adds to cost and also inconvenience of owning jets and planes. Extensive and time consuming paperwork – from certifying the seaworthiness of the vessel to the competencies of the pilot – is required. Only one government office with a long backlog in Beijing handles such matters, according to an Italian Trade Commission analyst, who preferred information be cited to the trade office. Tax rates are high and those buying imported yachts can expect to pay almost half of the value of the yacht itself. Importers will pay an import duty of 8-10.5%, a value-added tax of 17% and a consumption tax of 10%. Brian Foley, a prominent US-based aviation analyst, said that regulatory burden the Chinese government places on the private aircraft sector prevents the industry from reaching its full potential. Those seeking to fly private face a 22% tax on their foreign jet purchase and long waits for less-than-ideal flight plans. Foley said change is coming, but at a glacial pace. Flight plans now take two to three days to gain approval and low altitude airspace is gradually being opened up, although still doesn’t address the full demand. Foley says that the government has promised to reduce the import tariff on jets from 22% to 6%, but this has yet to materialize.

Turbulence ahead The industry’s reliance on corporations is a sign of the economic spoils of Chi-

na’s rapid GDP growth. Corporation’s cash-rich balance sheets have given them the luxury of attempting to outspend the competition to impress clients. But with the economy slowing and Beijing pushing to rebalance toward consumption, this base of corporate buyers may erode with time. Stateowned enterprises that dominate infrastructure and heavy industry may no longer have the hefty profit margins that allow such purchases if the economy shifts away from these industries or the government withdraws its substantial support. For exchange-listed listed companies, shareholders and directors don’t take kindly to extravagant purchases or extensive use of company jets when times are tough. Corporate governance consultants are warning that business jet use by executives should be curtailed, because it’s seen as the “poster child” for executive excess. If the economy slows down, profit margins shrink and corporate boards in China order austerity à la Xi Jinping, the yacht and private jet sector may need to turn more toward wealthy individuals if they need to support continued growth. The industry will have to convince China’s high net-worth individuals that private ownership is a worthwhile investment. If the government lets up on hefty taxes and restrictions, it could be a major coup for the industry in winning over the superrich. China certainly has an ample number of millionaires and billionaires and a diverse offering of products – yachts and jets of different sizes and price points. Bringing them together may be the difference between extravagant profits or austerity for the industry.

May 2013

53


焦点 俄罗斯 焦点

剖解中俄关系 两国虽有共同利益但合作关系仍不稳固

俄罗斯人在中国东北购买服装

任国家主席习近平首次出访即选择

年仅80亿美元,2012年达880多亿美元,

能源领域的合作无疑将使双方受益:中国

了俄罗斯。50多年前,当时的副总

是12年前的11倍,年均增幅高于中国外贸

是全球最大的能源消费国,而作为全世界

理习仲勋曾访问过前苏联。展现在父子两

的整体增幅。中国对俄出口以机电和劳动

最大的能源供应国之一,俄罗斯近年来发

代人眼前的是迥然有异的国度,两国关系

密集型产品为主,进口则以能源和资源为

现来自欧元区的需求已逐渐疲弱。

也发生了巨大的变化。

主。 中俄两国签署了一系列能源协议。

而中国具备最富有成长性的市场,两国能

关系的延续和发展。近几十年来,两国关

俄罗斯第一大石油生产商俄罗斯石油公司

源领域的战略合作应是必然选择。”中国

系一直饱受困扰。尽管在毛泽东时代早期

(Rosneft)承诺未来对中国的石油供应

外交学院对外关系教研室教授周尊南表

两国曾建立过短暂的友谊,但之后则一直

量将增加两倍,致使后者一举成为俄罗斯

示。

在意识形态层面各持己见,这在“苏修”

最大的原油进口国。

问题上表现尤为明显。

2009年中俄达成“贷款换石油”协

战略协作

时至今日,中俄两国关系已大有改

议,中石油目前每年通过中俄原油管道从

中俄两国很早就确立了“战略协作伙

观。尤其在经贸领域,中国已经连续多年

俄罗斯进口1500万吨原油。另有消息称,

伴关系”。习近平对俄罗斯进行国事访问

成为俄罗斯第一大贸易伙伴。中国商务部

俄罗斯将把对中国原油供应量提高一倍,

期间,两国签署了“深化全面战略协作伙

官员近日在广交会上透露,当前中俄经济

以换取从中国获得的贷款。

伴关系”的联合声明,再度明确了这一关

关系总体势头良好,未来双边贸易额将继

此外,俄罗斯天然气工业股份公司和

续保持高速增长态势。预计2015年中俄双

中国石油天然气集团公司亦签署了协议,

近年来,美国目前正着手将重心转向

方贸易额将达1000亿美元,2020年将达

内容涉及从2018年起每年向中方供应380

亚洲,同时加强与日本、韩国、越南以及

2000亿美元。

亿立方米的天然气,为双方持续长达十余

菲律宾的关系。而中国也在寻求进一步深

年的谈判画上了圆满的句点。中俄两国在

化与俄罗斯的战略伙伴关系,以消弭美国

官方数据显示,中俄双边贸易2000

54

“俄罗斯有着极为丰富的能源资源,

冷战结束后形成的中俄关系实为中苏

May 2013

系。


焦点 俄罗斯

带来的影响。朝鲜的核武器试验及其在近

仍认为双方在战略层面的互信关系尚待加

用。近年来,中亚国家也选择与中国并肩

几周发表的强硬言论可能促发了美国进一

强。据斯德哥尔摩国际和平研究所2011年

抗衡俄罗斯,比如在2008年阿布哈兹和南

步加强在东亚地区影响力的决心,中国因

10月发布的一份报告,中国学者通常认为

奥塞梯在俄罗斯的支持下试图从格鲁吉亚

此更感忧虑。就俄罗斯而言,欧元区持续

俄罗斯具有“大国心态”,并称该国仍有

分离出去时,中亚国家均发表声明拒绝承

深化的危机,及美俄两国间日益升级的对

称霸全球的野心。而在俄罗斯,一些学者

认它们独立。

抗行为致使俄罗斯同样有意加强与中国的

仍持“中国威胁论”的观点,认为中国的

联系。

不断强大将使俄罗斯身处不利位置。

另一个问题在于中俄双方相对欠发达 的经济关系。据斯德哥尔摩国际和平研究

中俄在防务领域的合作日益加深。习

中俄两国对彼此的疑虑则部分源于地

所的报告,中国学者通常认为两国在政府

近平受邀访问了位于莫斯科的俄罗斯国防

缘政治。尽管双方已于2004年和平解决了

层面关系密切,但在经济层面往来较少。

部。俄罗斯国防部长称,这位中国国家主

共同边界问题,但部分中国教科书仍认为

中俄双边贸易活动在过去5年中增加了不止

席是第一位访问该国国防部的外国元首,

俄罗斯侵占了中国的领土。两国之间已有

一倍,2012年贸易额虽然高达880多亿美

这体现了两国战略协作伙伴关系的“高水

逾40年未发生边境冲突,未来出现正面纷

元,但规模仍不及俄罗斯同欧盟,及中国

平和特殊性”。习近平则表示,在两国战

争的可能性也很小。尽管如此,若中国愈

与美国的贸易额。

略协作伙伴关系中,两国军事领域的合作

发强大,民族主义色彩愈发浓重,俄方的

这使中俄两国在外交关系上显得相对

具有特殊的重要地位,是两国战略协作的

担忧可能会加深,并会考虑对人口稀少的

脆弱。对双方而言,彼此的关系仍不及它

重要内容和支撑。

东部边境加强防御。

们各自与美国的关系重要。中俄两国的新

在习近平访问俄罗斯之前,中俄两国

双方出现纷争之处更可能存在于能源

关系很大程度上是建立在各自与欧美国家

签署了两份军售框架协议,包括中俄合作

领域及对前苏联中亚细亚地区的政治影响

存有分歧的基础上,所以并不牢固,一旦

建造4艘先进的“拉达级”AIP潜艇出售

力。过去10年,中国的影响力已逐步扩大

与美国或欧盟的关系得到改善就可能有损

给中国,中国向俄罗斯采购24架苏-35战

到俄罗斯的后方。

这种关系。

机,新型苏-35战机被认为是最接近第五 代战机的第四代战机。

中国曾贷款建造了一条全长约7000

一位西方观察人士指出,中俄双方

公里的天然气输送管道,西起土库曼斯

无疑将在共同的经济利益基础上建立稳固

预计未来中俄两国还将达成更多新的

坦,途经乌兹别克斯坦和哈萨克斯坦,最

关系,但在很多方面,两国的世界观或战

军事技术合作合同,如S-400远程防空导

后到达中国。中亚天然气管道打破了俄罗

略利益并无更多共同点。“迄今为止,中

弹、117S大推力发动机、伊尔-476大型

斯在中亚能源出口市场的垄断地位,致使

俄关系仍只是因互惠而结合的脆弱合作关

运输机和伊尔-78空中加油机等。

俄罗斯需要付出较大代价来降低中转费

系。”他表示。

时事评论员丘震海认为,中俄虽然不 是军事同盟关系,但通过签署一系列重大 军事合作协议,显示两国关系正在深化发 展。这是双方因共同处境所导致的战略需 求,即逐渐向由两国共同构建新的国际秩 序的方向发展。 譬如,在阻止美国对国际事务采取 强硬措施方面,俄罗斯和中国享有一致的 利益。中俄两国一贯秉承务实的世界观, 对像美国那样干预他国事务的做法不甚支 持。在参加联合国安理会的表决时,中国 和俄罗斯经常站在同一阵线,反对干涉伊 朗、利比亚以及朝鲜事务。

不够稳固 尽管在上述领域达成了多项协议,中 俄双方的关系仍不够稳固,未来一段时间 这一局面可能无法得到改观。 中俄两国的学者和外交政策研究人士

中国贷款建造的中亚天然气输送管道

May 2013

55


SPOTLIGHT RUSSIA SPOTLIGHT

Mr Xi goes to Moscow Despite historic agreements, Sino-Russian ties are shakier than they seem

I

t has been more than 50 years since Xi Zhongxun, a Chinese vice premier, visited Russia. His son, China’s new president, encountered a drastically different country and relationship when he followed in his father’s footsteps last month. Xi Jinping took his first trip abroad since assuming government office, arriving in Russia to meet President Vladimir Putin, Prime Minister Dmitry Medvedev and other officials in the Kremlin. For decades, the Sino-Russian relationship was characterized by suspicion, border skirmishes and entangling alliances. After a brief period of friendship in Mao Zedong’s early years, the two countries became bitter ideological rivals, with the Russians generating much ire in Maoist China for their “revisionist” ways.

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May 2013

Today, relations have warmed considerably, and with good reason. Now that the US is rebalancing its resources toward Asia and strengthening its alliances with countries including Japan, South Korea, Vietnam and the Philippines, China is looking to Russia as a strategic partner to help offset US influence. North Korea’s nuclear test and harsh rhetoric in recent weeks may have given the US a motive to further increase its influence in East Asia, worrying the Chinese even more. For Russia, continued trouble in the eurozone and increasingly antagonistic interactions with the US mean it is similarly interested in strengthening relations. The two countries have always been strong partners in defense, and the visit saw them sign further cooperation treaties.

The two countries also signed a slew of agreements in energy. Rosneft, Russia’s biggest oil producer, agreed to triple its supply of oil to China to make the country the largest importer of Russian crude oil. Gazprom and China National Petroleum Corporation also signed an agreement for Russia to deliver 38 billion cubic meters of natural gas to China per year starting in 2018, concluding talks that have stretched for more than a decade. Cooperating on energy clearly provides great mutual benefits: China is the world’s largest energy consumer, while Russia, one of the world’s largest energy producers, has seen demand from the eurozone slow in recent years. Finally, Russia and China share a mutual interest in working together to prevent the US from strong-arming


SPOTLIGHT RUSSIA

international institutions. They both support a policy of non-interference and adopt a pragmatic worldview that rejects American-style proselytizing. They have often voted together in the UN Security Council, objecting to intervention in Iran, Syria and North Korea.

Distrust runs deep But despite these historic agreements, the Sino-Russian relationship remains somewhat uneasy. It is likely to remain that way. Scholars and foreign policy practitioners in the two countries continue to view each other with strategic distrust. Chinese academics often attribute a “great power mentality” to Russia and warn that the country still harbors global ambitions, according to an October 2011 report by the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute. In Russia, some scholars still espouse a “China threat theory,” that Beijing’s growing power will put Russia in a comprised

and vulnerable position. This continuing distrust stems partially from geopolitics. Although the countries agreed to a common border in 2004, some Chinese textbooks still contend that Russians occupy land unfairly stolen from China. The countries have not had a border clash for more than 40 years, and an outright dispute seems unlikely. However, if China grows increasingly powerful and nationalistic, Russians could become more worried and defensive about their sparsely populated eastern border. A more likely source of conflict, however, is competition over energy and political influence in former Soviet Central Asia. China’s influence has expanded greatly into Russia’s backyard in the last decade. China provided the loans to build a 4,350-mile natural pipeline that ships gas from Turkmenistan through Uzbekistan and Kazakhstan to China. The line broke Russia’s monopoly on

transportation networks for Central Asian energy exports, which will cost Russia greatly in reduced transit fees. Central Asia countries have also chosen to side with China over the Kremlin in the recent past, for example in 2008 when Central Asia states refused to recognize the Russian-backed separatist states of Abkhazia and South Ossetia seeking to break away from Georgia. Another issue is the relative underdevelopment of the Sino-Russian economic relationship. According to the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute, Chinese scholars often describe the relationship as warm at the government level but economically weak. Bilateral trade has more than doubled in the last five years, reaching US$87.5 billion in 2012, but Russia’s trade with the European Union and China’s trade with the US dwarf that amount. That strikes at the heart of the countries’ foreign relations quandry: For both Russia and China, their relationship with the US remains more important than the relationship to each other. In large part, the basis for this new relationship is exploiting each others’ problems with the West – not a strong foundation, since improving ties with the US or the EU could conceivably disrupt it. Russia and China are undoubtedly building a stable relationship based on common economic interests. But in many ways, the two countries do not share a deeper world view or strategic interests. Thus far, the Sino-Russian relationship remains a marriage of convenience, an arrangement that can easily fall apart.

May 2013

57


公司

房企谋突破 在捕捉新商机的同时应避免过热风险

房企融资新渠道

后,各地闻风而动。上海、北京、

房地产市场调控依旧严格,新开工项

难点。私募房地产基金通过股权投资参与

深圳等城市先后发布了地方版的细则内

目融资渠道变窄,开发商回笼资金压力增

房企项目运作,共担盈亏,为房地产市场

容。

务院于今年3月1日出台新国五条

投资的认同,也是其进行股权投资的一大

大,而房地产信托产品几近停发,银行也

注入长期发展资金,股权投资作为一种战

“新国五条细则及各地方版的细则

调高对房企的信贷风险,这些都加剧了房

略投资,将是私募房地产基金未来发展趋

的出台,更趋向于为今后以税费调节为主

企社会融资的难度。近些年,私募房地产

势。清科研究中心注意到,近年私募房地

的长效性调控机制逐渐形成和出台提供时

投资基金在国内发展迅速,作为一种融资

产基金股权投资比例上升,未来会逐渐淡

间窗口。”潘媛分析认为,“从中长期来

途径开始深受房企的青睐,其投资方式呈

化“明股暗债”的阴影,以明晰的股权投

看,以新型城镇化为载体的内需释放,固

现多样化发展。

资方式完善房地产市场的可持续发展。

定资产投资,尤其是房地产投资,有继续

清科研究中心数据显示,2012年中

发挥应有作用的需要,稳中求进的经济指

国私募房地产投资基金共发生80起投资案

导方针更容不得房地产调控矫枉过正。这

例。在披露投资方式的案例中,股权与债

是导致政府调控留存空间的内在原因。”

权结合的投资方式为房地产基金的首选。

警惕商业地产泡沫 商业地产是以经营商业活动为主题的 房地产细分行业,涉及商场、娱乐场所、

政策继续实施对房地产行业不放松的

股权投资是一种权益性投资,注重

休闲场所和其他消费场所的一个综合商业

宏观调控,继续打压地产市场。种种不利

被投资企业未来发展前景和资本增值,且

经营市场。据仲量联行统计,中国新兴城

因素导致房地产行业原有的住宅地产发展

参与企业经营管理和重大决策,投资风险

市50强城镇人口达2.6亿,辐射人口3.7

计划略显窘态,而商业、旅游和养老地产

相对较大,投资期长,借助退出机制出售

亿。预计到2020年,甲级办公楼存量将新

正为房企提供新的发展契机,私募房地产

持股获利。房地产基金在实施股权投资时

增3,000万平方米,现代零售物业将超过

投资基金已展开掘金尝试。

通常要对房企项目进行市场调研分析、土

1亿平方米,广阔的发展空间推动商业地

“房企应摆脱单纯的房地产开发模

地竞标观察和未来前景估值等,期间委托

产迅猛增长。国内房企对商业地产开发的

式,结合自身能力,审视市场定位,成为

成本高,市场风险难以把握,退出难度较

典型模式多采用“租售结合”,将一层出

城市综合运营商和细分市场领导者。”罗

大,直接影响投资回报率。此外,在期限

租,其余出售,这种经营模式符合目前房

兰贝格咨询公司在一份最新的研究报告中

短收益率高的各类债权投资方式前,房地

企发展现状。房地产限购政策的出台一定

提出。

产基金如何得到LP(有限合伙人)对股权

程度上抑制了炒作住宅房价的现象,迫使 部分投资者转向商业地产,而地方政府也 积极地推崇商业地产的开发,这就加快了 商业地产的发展,2012年全国商业地产新 增供应量较上年上涨22%。 商业地产未来发展前景可观,私募房 地产投资基金已尝试介入。据清科研究中 心不完全统计,2012年在商业地产领域私 募房地产投资基金共有14起投资案例,涉 及金额7.44亿美元。当前,房企对商业地 产的开发多数是转移住宅地产投资风险, 不排除部分为投机性投资。清科研究中心 认为,商业地产回报期长,占用资金量 大,新增商业地产迅猛增加,容易导致市 场定位不清、空置率上升、多数项目缺乏

宏观调控政策继续打压地产市场

58

May 2013

配套的管理和人才,盈利模式是否奏效有


待时间检验。此外部分开发商怀揣投机心 理,易产生商业地产泡沫。

养老地产尚缺发展模式 养老地产是介于住宅地产、商业地 产和养老服务之间,以专门服务老年市场 为主题而打造的一类高端住宅场所,它对 配套设施和居住环境要求更高,集合了护 理、医疗、餐饮和康复等功能为一体的综 合型地产。2013年北京率先开启养老地 产“元年”,将养老用地纳入北京市国有 建设用地范畴,这与当前社会老龄化速度 加快和房地产行业转型紧密相关。养老地 产为房企带来前景广阔的投资机会,私募 房地产基金可以布局有清晰发展思路的项 目,着眼长期的投资回报。日本医护型养 老院以小规模多功能服务设施深受老年 群体的欢迎,台湾老年公寓满足老年人 多样化需求的基础上创新经营方式,美国 CCRC社区通过自费方式选取不同的养 老套餐,这三类是国际上运营成功的养老 地产范例。国内养老地产尚未发展成形, 目前多以敬老院为主,这是政府公办、私 人经营的养老机构,另有家庭住宅养老小 区和综合养老社区,这类由房地产公司开 发,不提供专业的养老服务,但配备部分 老年活动场所和娱乐休闲项目。

旅游地产蓬勃发展

面对庞大的老年市场,养老地产发展 前景不可忽视。然而,养老地产在国内仍

游地产,以谋求新的投资机会。

演出和旅游城市再规划等,日本豪华登堡

处于起步阶段,已经实施的项目较少,想

旅游地产是依托于旅游资源的优势,

要做好养老地产并,还需要整合多行业间

集休闲、度假、养生和观光为一体的新型

迎合当前旅游行业和地产行业的发展

资源优势。投资期长,回报低,更重要是

地产开发项目。目前,旅游地产的投资模

趋势,旅游地产得到蓬勃式迈进,而私募

发展模式不清晰。清科研究中心建议,私

式大致分为依托自然资源的“寄生”模

房地产基金也迎来掘金机会。2012年,

募房地产基金可以借鉴国外成功的投资案

式、人为建造的娱乐休闲模式和陈述历史

私募房地产基金已开始对国内旅游地产投

例,探索适合在国内环境下运作养老地产

人文为核心的城市主题模式,第一种模式

资,但尚处于初期阶段,成功运作仍需丰

的盈利途径,协助房企做大、做强养老地

借助自然资源的优势,通过发展旅游来促

富经验,盈利模式需要明确。国内市场上

产市场。

进地产项目的开发,后续地产开发反哺旅

不乏一些旅游地产通过粉饰包装,借助

游,实现旅游和地产的优势结合,新加坡

“旅游”进行卖房销售,造成旅游地产

克拉码头是典型的成功范例;第二种模式

“虚热”。

旅游地产防虚热

主题乐园为运作典范。

2012年房地产行业仍处于“寒潮”

经由开发商建立大型娱乐和休闲场所,营

清科研究中心分析认为,尽管年内旅

之中,但旅游地产呈现快速发展。据多家

造出一种愉悦和放松的气氛,以PGA国家

游地产项目很多,但大多缺乏旅游地产品

机构统计报告显示,年内旅游地产的投资

度假村的高尔夫球场项目为核心代表;第

牌价值,加上开发商急功近利,照搬国外

额突破万亿关口,涉及的旅游项目达到

三种模式仅在受历史和文化熏陶的特点地

模式,致使项目核心竞争力突显不足。私

3000多个,甚至出现华谊兄弟、新华联、

区,重塑历史文化景象,满足人民的憧憬

募房地产基金需要对旅游地产项目制定全

华东电器和盛大网络等企业跨行业投资旅

和向往,代表项目以古镇开发、风俗节庆

局发展策略,防范投资潜在投资风险。

May 2013

59


REPOR T

Coming up short Stock shorting is a vital tool in mature stock exchanges, but Chinese markets remain in their adolescence

C

hina stocks have been some of the highest profile targets for short sellers in recent year. Some of the most notable incidents involved mainland companies targeted by short selling firms Muddy Waters and later Citron Research that prompted a Chinese corporate backlash. But these public battles have so far been contained to foreign-listed Chinese companies, simply because it has been difficult or impossible to short mainland-listed stocks in the past. With such mainland outcry against short sellers, it’s perhaps surprising that Chinese financial regulators are rapidly expanding the ability to short mainland stocks. Shorting has been possible for three years under a trial program, but the practice remained stunted because it was difficult to borrow shares in Chinese companies – a

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necessity when shorting stock. That changed at the end of February when the China Securities Finance Corporation launched a platform to allow such lending of shares. As reported in the Financial Times, regulators gave 11 brokerages permission to use the platform starting on February 28 and allowed them to short a list of 90 large-cap stocks. Since the CSFC launch the platform, the number of shorting accounts being established has picked up, although the actual volume of stock being shorted remains relatively low, sources at financial firms tell China Economic Review. Institutions still dominate the shorting that is being done, even though the number of accounts is now rising faster for individuals as well. Sources at two Chinese securities

firms, who are not allowed to speak to the media, say the options for shorting have risen quickly and there are now more than 300 stocks available for shorting. According to one analyst, banking, financial and mining sector stocks are the most popular prey for short sellers. This wider ability to short is undoubtedly a step toward a more healthy equities market in the longterm. But regulators will have to prove they’re big enough for their britches if they want a healthy adoption of the tool. Shorting gives traders one more tool to play the market and to punish underperforming companies, which is especially merited if a company is engaging in fraudulent practices, as was the case when Muddy Waters shorted Sino-Forest. Shorting also allows for traders to hedge, helping absorb any shocks to portfolios if the market shifts unexpectedly. Financial institutions will also have a new avenue for growth because they can collect fees on increased trading related to shorts. The expansion of shorting also appears to be coming at an ideal time when the market is depressed, encouraging gradual adoption of the tool. The market for A-shares, renminbi-denominated shares that trade on mainland exchanges, had been among the worst performing in the world until a rally that began in


December. The Shanghai Composite Index remains well below its heights of 2009 and 2010, much less its preglobal financial crisis high. Shorting will presumably grow more attractive if stock prices rise, allowing for a gradual uptake of the practice that is less disruptive to the market.

Potential for abuse Despite the favorable conditions for the rollout of a shorting option, investors still have cause for worry over whether Chinese markets are ready for short-selling. Chinese companies in general are far more opaque than their Western counterparts in terms of information they must disclose, so shorting could increase the already present risk of insider trading. In addition, fraud among Chinese companies is still thought to be widespread. Short sellers could play on these fears to unduly depress the overall market, as was the case for North Americalisted Chinese companies in the wake of accusations that Sino-Forest, Focus Media and others inflated company

vitals. Chinese regulators can also change the rules of shorting at any time, presenting the risk that politically connected companies could improperly exercise influence on the regulations. While traders can short a list of more than 300 companies, “this number is constantly changing, as some stocks that have significant volatilities will be removed from the list,� said one broker at a mainland securities firm. Listed companies often have close links to the government, so executives could use this influence to ask to be removed from the list if they think they are being shorted unfairly. In these respects, China does not appear to be prepared for widespread shorting. Chinese regulators should make a clear decision on what stocks can be shorted and secure investors against short-term political meddling. They should also increase public disclosures and help stamp out fraud to avoid a possible short seller induced panic. Shorting can be either construc-

tive or toxic, depending on how China chooses to regulate it. The practice, even in mature markets, can be abused by inside traders and those making questionable claims to bump down the price of stocks. But short sellers can also bolster investor confidence because they have financial incentive to make sure no corporate stone goes unturned, ensuring stocks are fairly priced under the efficient market hypothesis. At best though, shorting is merely one small means of promoting more transparent markets that would work in tandem with broader regulations. Without stricter measures to promote disclosures, shore up accounting pracitces and clamp down on insider trading, shorting alone cannot police a market potentially rife with fraud and may unnecessarily destabilize stocks. In its current form, shorting gives the appearance of a Chinese stock market that is still in its adolescence – wanting all of the benefits of being a mature market but not yet accepting the responsibilities.

May 2013

61


REPOR T

Innovation nation? China scores miserably on some types of innovation but does surprisingly well on others

M

ost depictions of Chinese innovation tend to paint the country in broad generalizations. The country is either a nation of copycat products whose schools have left its low-cost workers devoid of any ability to think creatively. Or it is a forward-thinking society that is pumping in funding and pumping out patents in such innovative sectors as life sciences and clean energy. As usual, the reality is more nuanced. The truth is that China is better at some types of innovation than others. Bill Dodson, the author of “China Fast Forward: The Technologies, Green Industries and Innovations Driving the Mainland’s Future,” described innovation as a “spectrum of change,” during a recent talk in Shanghai. Ingenuity falls at one end of the spectrum, while paradigm shifts like the Renaissance fall at the other; in between are commercial innovation and discovery, said Dodson, who is a contributor to China Economic Review. Original discoveries remain uncommon in China, and the country is nowhere close to producing paradigm shifts. Commentators usually attribute this to several deficiencies in the Chinese society: The lack of a free exchange of ideas, financing for small companies, legal protection for intellectual property and an educational system that encourages students to stand up to authority. But when it comes to the other end

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May 2013

of the spectrum, small leaps in ingenuity, China does far better. In fact, the country forces ingenuity on its businesspeople, Dodson said. “You have to be ingenious to get around the red tape [or] the tax man in order to get your business done and even live your lives.” The country is also catching up in terms of commercial innovation, with major Chinese companies such as Lenovo and Huawei close on the heels of their competitors in Japan and Korea.

In the laboratory Examples of Chinese companies doing business better than their foreign counterparts – rather than just bigger – are few and far between, but they do exist. Chinese companies tend to specialize in derivative innovations – tweaking products developed elsewhere to adapt them to the Chinese market. For

example, internet giants like Tencent Holdings and Alibaba Group have made names and massive businesses for themselves by adopting Western models and remixing them to suit the Chinese market. Of course, these internet companies offer some services that are simply copies of those that already exist. Baidu is working on rolling out a version of the Google Glass, while Alibaba has been criticized for merely modifying Google’s mobile operating system to create its own. Tencent and Sina have released services that ape What’s App and Twitter, and practically every social media site in China sports a game that is almost identical to Facebook’s Farmville. But in the process of copying their Western counterparts, Chinese companies sometimes develop micro-innovations that gradually improve on existing ideas in the marketplace.


Nowhere is this truer than in the life sciences sector. Chinese scientists often try to create certain biological medicines (called “me-toos”) that duplicate those used in the West to treat cancer, diabetes and other serious diseases. But because of the fluid nature of organic compounds, in the process of reverseengineering researchers can produce different permutations that may actually be more effective, which the industry calls “me-betters.” “Me-betters” have also cropped up in the technology industry. Alibaba, Tencent and Baidu employ hundreds of designers to create permutations of every possible design and then test them among consumers. This process has led to some superior business models: For example, many people regard Sina Weibo as an improved version of Twitter, allowing users to post many different forms of media. Ditto for Alibaba, China’s long-standing leader in e-commerce innovation. It was the first company to successfully combat fraud by holding consumer money in escrow through its Alipay service until goods are delivered. Chinese innovations do not just center on creating superior products

but also adapting business models and services, according to a recent report on innovation by consultancy McKinsey. In addition to Alibaba, the report cites as an example Broad Air Conditioning, which developed a way to commercialize gas-powered air conditioning systems for large buildings. Chinese companies can also innovate by providing superior services. Haidilao, the hot-pot chain, has established a strong brand name by providing its customers such perks as free manicures, noodle-pulling demonstrations and video teleconferencing.

The value of baby steps Small product innovations may not be as impressive as some of the disruptive innovations that have come out of the West, but observers should not discount them. Mitch Barns, Greater China president for the Nielsen Company, has noted that product innovation is often the most important driver of corporate growth. With cookies and potato chips, one new product is often responsible for more than half the market’s growth, and it’s much the same for cell phones and cars, he said. And whereas US and other markets

around the world often celebrate the idea of disruptive innovation, some Chinese managers reject the strategy as imprudent and overly expensive. Especially in a competitive environment like China’s, companies often invest in research and development only to see their products fail. According to Barns, 70% of new products decline or are withdrawn from the market within two years of their launch. Sticking to the lower end of the innovation spectrum may be more appropriate for China’s current economic development and income levels. Ralph Gomory, the former head of IBM’s research department, pointed out in an interview that up until the 1930s the US also propelled most of its growth by adapting technologies from other nations. The US was only forced to ramp up its investment in R&D and its focus on innovation by World War II and the Cold War. Hopefully it won’t take a war to push China toward more innovation. As Chinese income levels rise and the country shifts toward an economy more powered by domestic consumption, disruptive innovations are likely to become more common.

May 2013

63


REPOR T

Anatomy of a Chinese city Author Michael B. Griffiths dissects the northern steel town of Anshan in search of consumer trends. Griffiths is director of ethnography at Ogilvy & Mather, Greater China, and author of “Consumers and Individuals In China: Standing Out, Fitting In.”

A

“rust-belt” city in the heartland of what used to be known as Manchuria, Anshan was a place of little broader significance until the Japanese established a steel mill there in 1918. The fullscale Japanese invasion of 1931 saw Anshan’s steel and mining industries become consolidated under a single Japanese monopoly known as Showa Steelworks, which for a while became one of the largest iron and steel production centers in the world. This steelworks was all but destroyed by the Allied Forces’ bombing during World War II but rejuvenated following the Communists’ 1948 “liberation” of northeastern China as the Anshan Iron and Steel Company. Its name popularly abbreviated to Angang, Anshan’s new steelworks were managed directly by the State-owned Assets Supervision and Administration Commission of China’s State Council, a situation which afforded local government officials considerable power and influence relative to those in cities of similar size. Between the 1949 founding of the People’s Republic of China and the 1978 enactment of the one-child policy, Anshan’s population swelled to roughly 3 million around its state-owned enterprises. Since the vast majority of residents relied entirely on Angang for food, housing and other resources, the mass industrial layoffs precipitated by the

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May 2013

introduction of automated processes and partial privatization throughout the 1990s had cataclysmic effects on the local economy. Workers were offered paltry pension payoffs or, for those too young to claim their pensions and ineligible for unemployment benefit, a meager stipend while they waited for retirement age, thus earning Anshan a reputation for social depression to complement the one it already had for environmental grime. The structural changes at Angang prompted waves of social unrest throughout the region – not least in nearby Liaoyang, where the central government struggled to suppress worker protests in response to management corruption in 2002. They also prompted huge numbers of both for-

mal and informal entrepreneurial startups, making a few individuals wildly successful but most much less so. The most prosperous were run by wellconnected individuals who rented real estate from Angang and sold services back to it from the premises. Once an icon of socialist productivity, Anshan rapidly became a society characterized by vast differentials in personal wealth. While former workers eked out a living by any means necessary, the newly-moneyed corporate and entrepreneurial class began to conspicuously support the new market for luxury cars, foreign holidays and a labyrinth of hedonistic new entertainment complexes. Faced with a rising contingent of angry “post-proletariat” ex-workers,


the local government leveled many of Anshan’s shabby Soviet-inspired housing compounds in the city center, making way for huge investments in shopping malls and upscale apartments. Particularly with the advent of the 2008 Olympics and the 60th anniversary of the Chinese Communist Party’s rule 2009, entire swathes of dilapidated houses were demolished to clear space for glittering consumer-scapes which now almost entirely eclipse the huge, monolithic frame of the steelworks still lurking in the belly of the city center. The strategy is to mold Anshan into a shopping and tourism center for the whole region, thus making the systematic “redistribution” of state assets appear democratically accessible. Today, Anshan’s pollution is much more controlled than it once was. Although the city is still very much characterized by the erosion of collective social protection, the widening of social inequalities and the polarization of wealth, it has successfully cultivated

a booming private sector and consumer culture. This transition is evident in many of the key economic indicators. Anshan’s official GDP was RMB192 billion (US$28.1 billion) in 2009 rising from RMB3.8 billion in 1980, according to the Anshan City Statistics and Planning Bureau. Total consumer expenditure was RMB46 billion, rising from RMB24 billion in 2006. The change can also be seen in the landscape of the city. Anshan has attracted retailers including Tesco, Carrefour and several large domestic chains since the mid-2000s. A new elevated high-speed railway running from Dalian on the coast to Heilongjiang province in the far North will soon pass through Anshan’s “West of the Tracks” district, promising further economic stimulus in an area which still desperately needs it. Anshan’s “East of the Tracks” district has always been regarded as more up-market than its western counterpart because of its beautiful

“219” park and lakeside housing. The northern district of Lishan is similar in social and economic constitution to “West of the Tracks.” The scenic “Thousand Mountains” district features sprawling new developments in commuter-belt housing and leisure outlets which fuel urban consumers emerging desires to experience the countryside as leisure. In 2010, Anshan’s total urban and rural prefectural population was estimated to be approximately 4 million, making Anshan the third-largest city in Liaoning province and the fifth-largest in China’s northeast by population. The dominant Han ethnic majority is supplemented by around 530,000 indigenous Man, Hui and Korean-Chinese minorities. There are additionally an estimated 500,000 unregistered migrants from neighboring or distant counties, according to Anshan City Statistics and Planning Bureau. Material inequalities have been complemented by the (re)emergence of strongly contested cultural distinctions: No longer is it sufficient to merely have money and material goods in Anshan; the distinguished person today must also draw on other less tangible forms of value, showing good taste and market savvy in the products they consume. China is of course a diverse market, but Anshan, recently listed by The Economist’s Intelligence Unit as one of China’s twenty fastest growing cities, remains very typical of the sorts of places that social scientists and international marketers most urgently need to understand. Excerpted and edited with permission from “Consumers and Individuals In China: Standing Out, Fitting In” (Routledge, 2012) by Michael Griffiths.

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话题

苏东坡买房 这位大文豪虽也是高收入群体却很晚才买房 文 | 李开周 经济生活史作家

东坡很小的时候,

可以不用参加考试,获得了一顶“霸州文

他的父亲苏洵进京

安县主簿”的乌纱帽。主簿是宋朝最低级

赶考,名落孙山,启程回

别的文官,相当于现在的县政府办公室主

四川老家,途经嵩山,写

任,当时这个职务每月只有7贯铜钱的薪

了一首诗:

水。

经行天下爱嵩岳,遂 欲买地居妻孥。 晴原漫漫望不尽,山 李开周

色照野光如濡。

但是他很爱面子,一当上官,就在首都开 封宜秋门外买了一所相当漂亮的花园住

电视剧里陆毅扮演的苏东坡(左)

宅。前面说过,苏洵每月只有7贯铜钱的

意思是嵩山风景真

收入,而这所花园住宅的标价是8000贯,

忧,专门划拨给他们的耕地。把400亩职

好,山上阳光明媚,山下一马平川,我苏

就算他不吃不喝连续工作95年,也买不起

田出租给佃户,每年收租大约在800贯左

洵走遍了大半个中国,还没见过这么好的

这所房子,他是怎么筹够房款的呢?很简

右。把薪水和职田加起来,苏东坡的年收

地方,我要在这儿买地盖房,把老婆孩子

单,借钱。苏洵的二哥苏涣是进士出身,

入已经超过了1000贯,这个收入水平在北

都搬过来住。

时任利州提刑,官位和收入远远高于苏

宋是很高的,意味着他存上8年积蓄,就能

洵,所以苏洵买房的时候,主要是跟二哥

在京城买一所花园住宅。

苏洵有没有在嵩山买地盖房呢?没 有,因为他没钱。多年以后,苏东坡的弟

借的钱。

但是苏东坡没有买房,他和他的妻子

弟苏辙写文章提到这件事:“昔予先君,

有道是亲兄弟也要明算账,苏洵借

王弗、儿子苏迈借住在凤翔府学,直到三

以布衣游学四方,尝过嵩洛,爱其山色,

二哥的钱不能不还,而光凭苏洵微薄的薪

年以后调离凤翔。苏东坡为什么不买房?

慨然有卜居意,而贫不能遂。”意思是当

水是永远也还不了债的。在开封买房七年

因为他把自己的收入都用来替父亲还债

年我爸爸以平民身份漫游天下,经过嵩山

后,苏洵病逝,还债的重任也就落到了苏

了。

的时候,希望能在那里安家,可是他太穷

东坡和苏辙头上。

了,买不起地皮,盖不起房子,美好的愿 望成了泡影。 苏辙说得没错,他的爸爸确实是个穷 人。 当然,苏洵虽穷,还不到赤贫的地

66

虽然苏洵的官位和薪水都非常之低,

宋仁宗熙宁四年,苏东坡被调到杭

苏东坡和苏辙要比乃父争气得多。宋

州任通判,月薪涨到了30贯,职田增加到

仁宗嘉祐元年,他们两个跟苏洵一起参加

700亩,年收入大约在1800贯左右,稍微

进士考试,苏洵再次落第,而苏东坡和苏

攒上几年钱,买房是不成问题的。可是苏

辙都顺利考上了进士。当时苏东坡才二十

东坡仍然没有买房,不是不想买,是钱不

岁,而苏辙才十七岁。

够。年收入那么高,为什么钱不够?因为

步,他在四川老家还有100亩稻田和5亩菜

按照北宋的选官制度,考中进士并

他的开销太大。他去杭州赴任的时候,跟

地,完全能解决一家几口人的温饱问题。

不代表可以做官,进士只是一个学位,要

着他一起去杭州的可不光是他的妻子和儿

但是苏洵不善理财,也很少去田地劳作,

想进入官场,还必须通过朝廷举办的公务

子,还有他小时候的奶妈任采莲,以及他

他一生最大的兴趣就是当官。为了当官,

员考试(制科考试)。宋仁宗嘉祐五年,

的侄媳妇和两个侄孙。苏东坡是个很看重

他多次参加科举考试,可是每次都是名落

苏东坡兄弟一起参加公务员考试并一起通

亲情的人,奶妈哺育过他,所以他要把奶

孙山。他不气馁,努力尝试考试以外的路

过,然后在嘉祐六年又通过了另一场公务

妈带到任上去享福。侄媳妇和两个侄孙则

子,前后花了三十多年时间给所有能拉上

员考试,此后苏辙留在京城,苏东坡正式

是因为没有生活来源,族里没人管,苏东

关系的官员献诗,猛拍欧阳修、王拱辰、

迈上仕途—去陕西凤翔做签书判官,相

坡独力把他们养起来。事实上,苏东坡后

张方平、文彦博等等朝中大佬的马屁,甚

当于现在的副市长。那时候,苏东坡才二

来得知某个堂姐死了丈夫以后,还慨然承

至不惜结交一些声名狼藉的贪官(例如雷

十五岁。

担了供养堂姐及其子女的重任,直到堂姐

简夫),只求人家能赐给他一个幕僚的职

二十五岁的苏东坡每月薪水20贯,是

位。直到五十多岁的时候,苏洵的努力才

父亲的好几倍,此外还有400亩的职田。

慷慨好施的苏东坡靠一人之力养活了

得到回报—在欧阳修的举荐下,他终于

所谓职田,就是朝廷为了让地方官衣食无

一大群亲戚,同时还在继续归还父亲在世

May 2013

的女儿出嫁,都是他出钱做的嫁妆。


的债,积蓄也相当可观了,但他似乎对房

子。

子的兴趣不大,总是把钱花在他认为更需

公元1084年,苏东坡将近五十岁的

要的地方。比如说有一年密州闹瘟疫,穷

时候,为了让家人有个安身之所,终于在

苦百姓没钱买药,苏东坡捐出50两黄金,

江苏宜兴买下第一所房子,也是最后一所

在密州城里建了好几所福利院,免费给百

房子。这回他跟他的父亲苏洵一样付不起

姓治病。那时候一两黄金能兑换80贯铜

房款,只好向身居高位的弟弟苏辙借了

钱,50两就是4000贯,相当于他两年的收

7000贯。

入。

宋朝房价是很高的,一个平民百姓靠 苏东坡后半生的仕途是很不顺利的,

种地或者打工,拼命几百年也未必买得起

经常被贬官,被流放,薪水不断下滑,职

一套像样的房子。可是对宋朝官员尤其是

田也被没收,就算他想买房,也已经买不

高级官员来讲,高房价并不是问题,因为

起了。从他流传于世的诗文可以得知,老

他们的收入也非常高。苏东坡也是高收入

苏每次进京述职,都是借住朋友家的房子

群体,但他买房很晚,因为他把钱都花给

(苏洵在世时购买的那所住宅后来被卖掉

了亲人和穷人。他是先人后己的绅士,是

了)。他跟驸马王诜交好,经常去王诜的

伟大人格的典范。

时欠下的债款,以至于他在杭州做了三年

府邸里借宿。他还有个老乡叫范镇,是退

现在似乎已经找不到苏东坡这样的人

通判,离任时的积蓄只有几百贯钱。

休的京官,在开封南城买了一所房子,也

了,因为现在只盛产寻租的官员,粗鄙的

再后来,苏东坡去密州做官,薪水又

是苏东坡经常借宿的好地方。后来苏东坡

干部,以及虽然只是个芝麻绿豆官儿,却

涨了一次,年收入已经超过了2000贯,还

的儿子在开封结婚,老苏没能力给儿子

能通过种种不法手段坐拥几十套乃至几百

是没有买房。这时候他已经还清了父亲欠

买婚房,只好让他们小两口借住范镇的房

套住宅的“房叔”。

May 2013

67


看中国

命运 中国人既相信命运又认为命运是可以改变的 文 | 晏格文 (Graham Earnshaw)

守己,听天由命’。”

的思想家林语堂

今天我在中国不断听到的一句话就

中国人从内心深处仍认为命运可以改变,

先生看来,中国社会根本

是“没办法”。人们通常在讨论中国环境

所以才会用黑金鱼和镜子避邪,并祈求获

而言是被他称作“面”、

或政治等问题的时候会用上它,所表达的

得祖先的庇佑。整个风水学和中国文化中

“命”、“恩”的三股力

真正含义则是:“事已至此,非吾等草民

其他类似的学说都是基于这样一种假设而

量所统治。当然,他在

所能左右,又何必自寻烦恼。”

建立起来,即未来的因果并非不可逆转,

20世纪中国伟大

晏格文

1936年出版的《吾国吾

这也正如林先生所云:“这个命运主

民》一书中仅是针对当时

义的原理为人们精力和知足精神的源泉,

的动荡时局就这类问题加

亦所以产生温和平静的中国精神。”

要问世的情况下)。我在书中的观点是,

人们有能力改变事情的发展脉象,只要能 抓住本质,并采取正确的行动。 林先生还指出:“可取之处,上面已

以剖析,但我认为时至今日此种观点仍然

我对“没办法”的观点有时难以认

经说过,为中国没有固定的阶级之分,没

适用。所谓“万变不离其宗”的古话不会

同。在我看来,无论任何事情,都没必

有贵族政治。吾们中国人深信凡人皆有得

没有道理。

要“没办法”,因为一旦抱有这种想法,

意之一日,而‘天理循环’,倘一个人而

我在上月的文章中探讨了“面子”,

则更不可能想出“办法”、解决方案、手

有才干,意志坚决,抱负不凡,总能攀高

以及它对中国至上而下阶层的非凡影响

法甚或采取相应的行动。但另一方面的事

升腾。谁得预卜?”

力。接下来的话题则事关“命运”,也就

实是,我并不是中国人。

这确实是中国文化的可取之处,让等

是中国人通常所说的认命—那种接受现

尽管如此,对于人们所说的中国人直

级制度无处容身。中国人都崇尚权利,并

状,不到被逼至墙角、走投无路不会选择

接屈服于命运的观点我也深表质疑。根据

认为谋权的最终目的在于用权(若想反驳

回击的心态。

我的观察,相较于中国文化,印度等国家

抨击官员腐败现象的出租车司机,最好是

中认命的观念要根深蒂固得多。

问他们:“若你在这一位置会怎么做?”

林先生认为:“命运主义不单是中国 人的智力的习惯,也是孔教传习意识的一

我曾动笔写一本有关中国人算命的

回答通常是:“可能也是一样。”)但从

部分。信仰命运与名分观念的关系如是密

书,目前已经完成了一大半,未来有一天

另一角度看,若减少阶层流动可能性的观

切,致使吾人有句流行俗语,叫做‘安分

可能会写成(当然只有在我认为此书注定

念出现在中国,则显然不利于社会和谐。

An article fated to exist Chinese views on fate are flexible By Graham Earnshaw

I

t was the opinion of one of the great thinkers of the 20th century, Lin Yutang, that China was ruled ultimately by what he called a triad of forces – face, fate and favor. His book “My Country and My People,” published in 1936, discusses these issues

68

May 2013

of course from the perspective of that volatile period, but I believe his comments still have a huge relevance for China today. “The more things change, the more they stay the same” is a cliché for a good reason. In last month’s article, I discussed

face, and the extraordinary extent to which it impacts on events in China from top to bottom. The next is fatalism, a topic on which the cliché has always been that Chinese people accept the status quo as being fate, until they are pushed to the wall and have no


LOOKING AT CHINA

other choice but to respond. Lin takes the view that “Fatalism is not only a Chinese mental habit, it is part of the conscious Confucian tradition. So closely related is this belief in fate connected with the Doctrine of Social Status that we have such current phrases as “keep your own status and resign yourself to heaven’s will,” and “let heaven and fate have their way.” In China today, I constantly hear the phrase mei banfa – nothing to be done about it. This often comes up when discussing, for instance, China’s environment or political issues. It means: “things are as they are, and there’s no way I can influence the course of events, so I may as well not bother myself about it.” As Lin points out: “This doctrine of fatalism is a great source of personal strength and contentment, and accounts for the placidity of Chinese souls.” My approach is sometimes to disa-

gree and say it (whatever the topic is) is not necessary mei banfa, and to take that attitude makes it less likely that there ever would be a “banfa”, a solution, a means or changing the situation. But then, I am not Chinese. But I also doubt the idea that Chinese are categorically passive in the face of fate. My observation would be that the Indian approach, for instance, is far more to accept fate as unchangeable than is true in Chinese culture. I once wrote most of a book about Chinese fortune-telling, and maybe one day I’ll finish it (only if I am fated to do so, of course). My conclusion was the Chinese people see fate ultimately as something that can be manipulated. Hence the use of black goldfish and mirrors to deflect evil force flows and pandering to dead ancestors to get their cooperation in improving things back here on Earth. The whole assumption of fengshui and other similar underpinnings of Chines

culture is that the future is not set in stone, and that we have the ability to change the course of events, if we can only read the signs correctly and take corrective action. “The redeeming feature, as has been said, is the absence of caste and aristocracy in China,” writes Lin. “We Chinese believe that every dog has his day, and ‘heaven’s way always goes round.’ If a man has ability, steadiness and ambition, he can always rise and climb high. Who can tell?” This is indeed one of the saving graces of Chinese culture – no caste system. All Chinese people respect power and accept that power is there to be used. (The best riposte for taxi drivers who rail against corruption amongst officials is to ask, “What would you do if you were an official?” The answer invariably is, “Probably the same.”). If there was ever a sense of a reduction in the fluidity of Chinese society, that would not be conducive to harmony.

May 2013

69


西游记

下山的路 晏格文(Graham Earnshaw)生于英国,现居上海。他以上一次落脚点为起点,行程从上海一路 向西,横贯中国。本月,他已行至巫山市西侧。 文 | 晏格文(Graham Earnshaw )

在巫山和奉节两城之间的山谷,途

从门外往里看,屋内黑漆漆的一片,

四周的水声不绝于耳—有从路边岩

经多个岔道,我一路行至中铁隧道

只有一个老人的肖像前燃着一根蜡烛。此

石缝中涌出的小瀑布声响,还有从谷底主

集团的施工现场,他们正在那里铺设连通

时我才知道门外的这群男人是为了祭奠他

流河道传来的隆隆水声。道路两侧装有金

这两座沿江县城的高速公路。远远地往下

们刚刚去世的朋友才汇集于此,这也是我

属护栏,护栏外的斜坡有时甚至呈90度直

看,有时还能望见岔道口和支撑高速公路

在山区的农舍门口第一次没有受到茶水招

角。不知从哪里开始,金属护栏上的中文

的混凝土柱。此情此景让我甚感欣慰,因

待的原因。我对于自己破坏了守灵仪式感

字开始无休无止,延续了至少两千米,字

为这意味着路段通车后在我行走的乡间小

到不安,于是起身询问下山的路。他们指

数可能以数千计。中文笔迹往往以黑色呈

路上将不再有长途巴士。

了指旁边的一簇草丛,可在我看来那里没

现,形体华丽,不易读懂,但变形却颇为

有小路。环顾了一周后我将目光落在了旁

有趣。可惜的是,当时谷底在我的右边,

边的小女孩王艳身上。

所以我只得沿着写有字体护栏的另一侧行

103省道在山腰间蜿蜒向下,此时我 看见一条向左的小道似乎将大路隔成两个

70

梯面,所以决定沿着它往下走。下行的过

我问她:“你能带我下山吗?”

走,难以看清所写的句子并加以讨论。但

程中有三个背着柴火的小孩超过我,朝着

她将手指含在嘴里,向四周瞧了

基本上都是一些对中国官员的讨伐之辞,

不远处的农舍赶去。我问他们这条路能否

瞧。此时在旁的一名妇女坚定地冲我说了

典型的譬如“10000名官员中有9999个

通往道路的下一个梯面,他们点点头。

声:“不。”

都贪污腐败”,这类文字绵延不绝,像是

走近农舍,我发现这同样是没有窗户

这一回应并不无理,我也意识到自己

有人通过对讲机不断重复自己的话。这也

的那种传统屋宅。我慢慢绕过泥砖砌成的

的这一要求实在过分。随后他们将我带到

表明中国社会已更加开明。我向坐在路旁

拐角,不小心踩入农舍前院的泥潭。前院

小路路口,并给了我一根可以当作手杖的

的一位农民询问书写者的身份。他告诉

顶端盖着一块巨大的蓝色油布,显然是用

竹竿。我吃力地顺着斜坡慢慢向下滑行,

我:“写这些话的人就住在附近,年纪只

来遮挡昨日的大雨,但到了今天它的存在

穿过种满各种蔬菜和成熟玉米的梯田,在

有30岁上下,性格比较封闭。”

只会让泥潭无法干透。此时一群年纪较大

道路的下一个梯面踉踉跄跄地走了五分

这些文字一路跟着我,最后终于消失

的男人围坐在农舍门旁,其中有两个正将

钟。等到了另一端的路口,我将竹竿竖放

(甚或是出现)在一片玉米田旁。就像序

手中的金属环敲打成自家制的那种粗糙纸

在了两块岩石间,以方便下一个攀爬的人

言那样,此人还在田旁的护栏上写道:“

片,并刻意在上面抠挖出一个硬币大小的

使用。

小偷请注意,为了防盗已对玉米下毒。”

凹洞。我向他们了解这些东西的用途,得

大路上各种颜色的飞虫更多,两旁的

到的回答是用来制作冥币,将来可以烧了

石头上更是写满了标语,内容主要是提倡

给死去的亲人在“那边”消费。

如果真的有毒,那自然对其他所有人都毫 无用处了。

封山造林,回归自然。金色的向日葵在山

沿河一路往下走,我看见了一片绿油

在受邀坐下前,我和他们的交流还中

谷间格外耀眼,但我发现它们当中没有一

油的秧苗,这也是我第一次花较长时间来

断了片刻,这可并不寻常。我与这些居民

朵是面向太阳的,很多都是朝向大地,在

观察它们。此时我正好路过用白色油漆刷

攀谈了一会儿,其中大部分是小孩,还让

经过雨水和云雾的洗礼后显得无精打采。

上的标语:“抗击非典。”这让我想起了

一个叫王艳的7岁女孩将自己的名字写出

蜜蜂们正在硕大的向日葵花心之间飞来飞

2003年的那场病灾,当时整个世界都曾猜

来,事实证明她做得不错。

去,辛勤地传播花粉。

测另一场黑死病会否席卷中国。“禁止在

May 2013


TR AVEL JOURNAL

林中种植毒品。”另一个标语这样写着。 此时我看见一位老农(那里似乎没 有青年农民)正在清理路上的石头和碎

Potato!

择了路边一处他认为不会被砸到的阴凉之

Graham Earnshaw was born in England and has been walking west from Shanghai across China since 2004, always starting each trip from exactly the last place he stopped. This month, we find him west of Wushan city

地。“这个地方比较安全。”他对我说。

By Graham Earnshaw

石。“Hello。”他笑着用英语跟我打招 呼,一手将头上的草帽摘下,并邀我一起 坐下。老农抬头看了看头顶上的石块,选

我问他农田里种了什么,他告诉我是 玉米和“洋芋”(土豆)。 “普通话把这叫土豆,英语里叫什 么?”他问道。 “Potato。”我回应称。他又按照我 所说的重复了一遍,发音相当标准。 “我在和一个英国人说英语!”他 笑着大声说道。“那英语里玉米怎么说 呢?” 老农自称姓李,已步入五十岁末,目 前退休在家。他膝下有三个子女,也都住 在这片区域,这在当地十分少见—大部 分那里的孩子都在别处工作。据他介绍, 他只出过一次大山,就是在她女儿到江苏 工作的期间前去探亲,但是自己并不喜欢 那里。“那里的方言根本听不懂。”他抱 怨道。 我问起了关于鸦片的事,他表示当 地一直广泛种植这类植物,一直到2006 年前后政府开始对此进行整顿。他还解释

A

s I walked through the mountains between the Yangtze river towns of Wushan and Fengjie, I passed several turnoffs to work sites where the China Railways Tunnel Group was building sections of the freeway linking the two. On occasion and far below, I could see tunnel mouths and concrete pillars that would carry the highway. I was much in favor of it. The highway, when finished, would remove the long-distance buses from my country road. Highway 103 twisted back and forth down the hillside, and I saw a path to the left that appeared to cut straight down from one level of the road to the next, and I started down it. I was overtaken by three children carrying

firewood to a farmhouse below, and I asked if it was possible to get down to the next level of the road. They nodded. I arrived at the farmhouse, rounded a mud-bricked corner and walked into a quagmire of mud in the front yard, covered by a massive blue tarpaulin that the day before was keeping off the rain and today was simply keeping the mud wet. A number of old men were sitting around the doorway of the farmhouse, which in the traditional way had no windows. Two of the men were banging metal rings onto crude, homemade paper sheets, making indentations about the size of a coin. I asked what it was for, and the answer was to create hell money to

称:“鸦片主要用于医病,食用这类植物 的种子有助于治疗胃病,但也有人以吸食 为目的。” 他很好奇我在横贯中国的旅行中是否 遇见过坏人,我告诉他自己运气够好,还 没碰上过。 “但你到过宜昌对吗?”他接着说 道,“宜昌人最坏,他们什么东西都要偷 要抢,你要十分小心才行。但你是外国 人,我想他们不太可能会碰你,偷外国人 的东西很丢中国人的脸。” 我告诉他小偷可能会不太在乎颜面。 对于为何一路上没有坏事发生,我的看法 是:自己随性而行,来去匆匆,所以即使 有人认为我很可能携金带银,并打起了歪 脑筋,也没时间采取行动。 但一路走来我很幸运,这是真的。

May 2013

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TR AVEL JOURNAL

burn for dead people to spend on the Other Side. There was a pause before I was invited to sit down, which was unusual. I talked with the people for a while, especially the kids, and got a 7-year-old girl called Wang Yan to write out her name for me, which she did pretty well. I looked into the doorway and saw the room was dark with a candle burning on a table in front of an image of an old man. The old men were there because their friend had just died, which explained why this was just about the only time in the mountains that I was not offered tea at a farmhouse door. I felt uncomfortable about crashing a wake, so I stood up and asked for directions down the hill. They pointed into the vegetation, but I could see no obvious path. I looked around and Wang Yan was standing near me. “Wang Yan, could you show me the way down?” I asked. She looked round, her finger in her mouth and a woman said firmly: “No.” And quite right too. I realized it was an entirely inappropriate request. But they showed me the path entrance and threw me a piece of bamboo to use as a walking stick and I clambered and slid my way down the slope, through terraces of ripening corn and various types of vegetables and stumbled out five messy minutes later on the next level of the road. I left the bamboo stick standing in between two rocks at the entrance to the “path” for the next person to use. There were more colorful bugs on the road and more daubed slogans on the rock faces next to the road calling for the mountains to be sealed off and returned to Nature. Sunflowers

72

May 2013

were much in evidence in this valley, but I did not find even one that was pointing in the direction of the sun. Many were pointing at the earth, perhaps feeling depressed after all the rain and clouds. The flowers were huge and bees were busy assisting in the propagation of the species, working their way around the clock faces at the heart of the flowers. The sound of water was all around, little cascades coming out of the rocks, with the liquid rumble of a major water flow coming from the valley floor. There was a metal guard railing alongside the outer edge of the road, beyond which the slope was sometimes almost perpendicular. Chinese writing

– black, flowery and barely legible, but calligraphically interesting – began to appear on the railings and continued for thousands, maybe tens of thousands of characters: at least two kilometers of it. Unfortunately, at that point the valley floor was on my right, and so I was walking against the direction of the writing, which made it hard to read the sentences and follow the argument. But basically it was a political rant. “Out of 10,000 officials, 9,999 are corrupt,” said one typical sentence. It went on and on, like callers on talkback radio shows in more open societies, and I asked a farmer sitting by the road who had written it. “He lives near here. He’s about 30 years old. He keeps


to himself,” the farmer said. The writing followed me and ended, or rather began, next to a cornfield where, as a preamble, the man had written on the railing: “This corn is poisoned to stop thieves. Thieves please take note.” If it was poisoned, of course, then it was useless to everyone else as well. Down below near the river, I could see the dayglo green of young paddy rice, the first I had seen for a long while. I passed a white painted slogan: “Fight SARS”, a reminder of that crisis in 2003 when the whole world wondered for a moment whether China had started another Black Death plague. “Don’t plant drugs in the for-

est,” pleaded another sign. I met an old peasant (there seemed to be no young ones) sweeping rocks and debris off the road. “Hello!” he said in English with a big smile, took off his straw hat and invited me to sit down. He looked up at the rock face and chose a shaded spot by the road which he presumably judged was unlikely to crash down upon us. “This will be safe,” he said. I asked him what he grew and he said corn and potatoes, which he called yangyu. “That is tudou in Mandarin,” he said. “What is it in English?” “Potato,” I said, and he repeated it back to me pretty accurately.

“I am speaking English with an Englishman!” he exclaimed with a big grin. “How do you say corn?” His name was Li and he was in his late 50s and retired. He had three children, all still living in the area, which was rare – mostly children are off working elsewhere. He said he had traveled outside the mountains only once to visit his daughter while she was working for a time in Jiangsu province, but he hated it. “Their language is just impossible to understand,” he said. I asked him about opium, and he said it was widely grown up to around 2006 when the authorities started to crack down. “It was mostly used for medicinal purposes,” he said. “Taking the seeds is good for stomach ailments. But it was also smoked.” He asked me if I had met any bad people on the road during my walk across China, and I said I had been lucky so far. “But you went through Yichang, right?” he asked. “Yichang people are the worst. They will steal and grab anything. You have to be very careful. But you are a foreigner, so I suppose they are unlikely to touch you. Stealing from a foreigner would be a loss of face for the Chinese people.” I said I did not think thieves were that concerned about face. My own theory of why I had so far not had anything bad happen to me was that I was such a random phenomenon and I appeared and disappeared so fast that people with evil thoughts didn’t have time to take action, even though the obvious and correct conclusion was that I probably had a pretty substantial sum of money in their terms in my pocket. But I had been lucky, it was true.

May 2013

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Place, 79 Jianguo Road,

www.stpaulschool.cn

Beijing

500 Weihai Road, Shanghai

Chaoyang, Beijing

18 Guan Ao Yuan, Longgang

Hotel New Otani Chang Fu Gong

Tel: +86 21 6256 8888

Tel: +86 010 5920 4320

Road Qinghe, Haidian, Beijing

www.cfgbj.com

Fax: +86 21 6256 5678

Fax: +86 010 5920 4322

100192

26 Jianguomenwai Avenue,

reservations.shg@fourseasons.

beijing.cn@adecco.com

PRC

Chaoyang,Beijing

com

COSCO Manning Cooperation

Tel: +86 137 1881 0084

Tel: +86 10 5877 5555

Grand Mercure Hongqiao

Inc.

spasadmissions@gmail.com

Fax: +86 10 6513 9810

Shanghai

www.coscoman.com

Shanghai

cfg@cfgbj.com

www.grandmercurehongqiao.com

6/F Building 3 Kaixuan Centre,

Livingston American School

Kempinski Hotel Beijing

369 Xian Xia Road, Chang Ning

170 Beiyuan Road, Chaoyang,

www.laschina.org

Lufthansa Center

Shanghai

Beijing

580 Ganxi Road

www.kempinski.com/beijing

Tel: +86 21 5153 3300

Tel: +86 010 5963 9300

Tel: +86 21 6238 3511

50 Liangmaqiao Road, Chaoyang,

Fax: +86 21 5153 3555

Fax: +86 010 5963 9311

Fax:+86 21 5218 0390

Beijing

reservation@

crewing@coscoman.com

Shanghai Community

Tel: +86 10 6465 3388

grandmercurehongqiao-

EPC Consulting Ltd. Beijing Rep.

International School (Pudong

Fax: +86 10 6410 4080

shanghai.com

Office

Campus)

reservations.beijing@kempinski.

Grand Hyatt Shanghai

www.epc-search.com

www.scischina.org

Com

www.shanghai.grand.hyatt.com

919 Ruicheng International

800 Xiuyan Road, Kangqiao,

Jiangsu

Jin Mao Tower, 88 Century

Centre, 13 Nongzhanguan Road

Pudong

Kempinski Hotel Suzhou

Avenue Pudong, Shanghai

South, Chaoyang, Beijing

Tel: +86 21 5812 9888

www.kempinski.com/suzhou

Tel: +86 21 5049 1234

Tel: +86 010 6503 1559

Fax:+86 21 5812 9000

1 Guobin Road, Suzhou Industrial

Fax: +86 21 5049 1111

Fax: +86 010 6507 1127

British International School

Park

shanghai.grand@hyatt.com

partner@epc-search.com

Shanghai - Pudong Campus

Jiangsu

Starwood Asia Pacific Hotels

Hewitt Associates (Beijing)

www.bisshanghai.com

Tel: +86 512 6289 7888

& Resorts PTE. Ltd. Shanghai

www.hewitt.com.cn

600 Cambridge Forest New

Fax: +86 512 6289 7866

Office

10/F Beijing Sunflower Tower,

Town, Lane 2729 Hunan Road,

reservations.suzhou@kempinski.

www.starwoodhotels.com

37 Maizidian Street, Chaoyang,

Pudong

com

19/F Phase 1 Huanmao Building

Beijing

Tel: +86 21 5812 7455

Kempinski Hotel Wuxi

999 Huaihai Road Central,

Tel: +86 010 6587 5800

www.kempinski.com/wuxi

Shanghai

Fax: +86 010 8527 5115

Health Care

76

24 Hour Appointment and

18 Yonghe Road, Nanchang

Tel: +86 21 6141 7799

infochina@hewitt.com

Shanghai

Wuxi, Jiangsu

Fax: +86 21 6391 8220

Manpower & Standard Human

iKang State Guest Group Co.,

Tel: +86 510 8108 8888

The Leading Hotels of the

Resources (Shanghai) Co., Ltd.

Ltd.

Fax: +86 510 8108 8000

World, Ltd. Shanghai Rep.

Beijing Branch

www.ikang.com

info.wuxi@kempinski.com

Office

2/F, E1 Office Building Oriental

1/F Building 6, 1313 Xizang Road

Liaoning

www.lhw.com

Plaza, 1 DongChang’an Street

South, Shanghai

Doubletree by Hilton Shenyang

501A Shanghai Center, 1376

Dongcheng, Beijing

Tel: +86 21 2326 5000

www.shenyang.doubletreebyhilton.

Nanjing Road West, Shanghai

Tel: +86 10 8518 8816

Fax: +86 21 2327 5102

com

Tel: +86 21 6279 8951

bj@manpower.com.cn

Parkway Health Medical

b16/F Wuai International

Fax: +86 21 6279 8952

Guangdong

Centers

Building, 65-3 Renao Road,

www.parkwayhealth.cn

Shenhe

May 2013

HR/Recruitment

Levin Human Resources Development (Guangzhou) Ltd.


www.levin.com.hk

Shanghai

Tel: +86 21 5241 8028

Software Park

V15 4/F Goldlion Digital Network

218 Tianmu Road West

leasing@parkview-sh.com

No.860-1 Shangshengou,

Center, 138 Tiyu Road East,

Tel: +86 21 6353 2288

Belvedere Service Apartments

Dongling, Shenyang City,

Tianhe, Guangzhou, Guangdong

Fax: +86 21 6353 2276

www.belvedere.com.cn

Liaoning Province, 110167

Tel: +86 020 2886 0665

Beijing

Belvedere Service Apartments

Tel: +86 24 8378 0500

Fax: +86 020 3878 1801

A6, Chaoyangmenwai Avenue

833 Changning Road, Shanghai

Fax: +86 24 8378 0528

info@levin.com.hk

Chaoyang

200050

Shanghai

Tel: +86 10 5907 0055

Tel: +86 21 6213 2222

ADP China

Fax: +86 10 5907 0188

Fax: +86 21 6251 0000

www.adpchina.com

Ogilvy Group

leasing@belvedere.com.cn

30/F Golden Bell Plaza, 98

www.ogilvy.com

Lanson Place Central Park

Huaihai Road Central, Shanghai

Beijing

Residences

Tel: +86 021 2326 7999

9/F Huali Building, 58 Jinbao

enquiry.lpcp@lansonplace.com

Fax: +86 021 2326 7998

Street, Dongcheng

Tower 23, Central Park

Marketing_China@cn.adp.com

Tel: +86 10 8520 6000

No. 6 Chaoyangmenwai Avenue

Hudson Recruitment (Shanghai)

Fax: +86 10 8520 6060

Chaoyang, Beijing 100020

Shanghai Jiatinghui Property

Tel: +86 10 8588 9588

Development Co., Ltd

Fax: +86 10 8588 9599

www.antinganting.com.cn

Co., Ltd. 2302-2303, 2201-2206 Hongyi

Real Estate/ Serviced Apartments

Real Estate/HOPSCA

Shanghai

Life Hub @ Anting No 1033

Road, Shanghai

Lanson Place Jin Qiao Serviced

Moyu Rd S, Anting, Shanghai

Tel: +86 21 2321 7888

Residences

Tel: +86 21 6950 2255

shresume@hudson.com

enquiry.lpjq@lansonplace.com

Fax: +86 21 6950 2833

No. 27 & 28, Lane 399 Zao

jean.liu@chongbang.com

International Plaza, 288 Jiujiang

Language Schools

Zhuang Road, Pudong, Shanghai 200136

Service Providers

PRC Tel: +86 21 5013 3888 Savills Residence Century Park

Fax: +86 21 5013 3666

www.savillsresidence.com No. 1703, Lane 1883, Huamu Road Pudong, Shanghai 201303,

Real Estate/ Business Park

PRC MandarinKing

Tel: +86 21 5197 6688

QC Integra

www.mandarinking.cn

info@savillsresidence.com

www.qcintegra.com

Shanghai

Hongkong Office

No.555 West Nanjing Road,

Jervois Street, Sheung Wang, HK

Room 1207 12th Floor, Plaza 555

Tel: +852 3008 5805

Shanghai, PRC

Shanghai Office

Course Inquiry: 400 618 6685

HuaYuan World Square, North

Office Tel: +86 21 6209 1063

Sandhill Plaza

Zhongshan Road, Putuo District,

Office Tel: +86 21 6209 8671

www.sandhillplaza.cn

Shanghai, China

study@mandarinking.cn

PR Agencies

2290 Zuchongzhi Rd, Zhangjiang

Tel: +86 21 6071 0550/0551

Park View Apartment

Hi-Tech Park, Shanghai 201303

info@qcintegra.com

wwww.parkview-sh.com

Tel: +86 21 6075 2555

GRM

Ketchum Newscan Public

Block 1-4, No. 888

Leasing@sandhill.cn

Guangdong

Relations

Changning Road

Shenyang

8 Qiufuilu, Fumin Industrial Park,

www.ketchum.com

Shanghai, 200042

Shenyang International

Dalang Town, Dongguan

May 2013

77


LISTING Tel: +86 769 8222 9922

BEIJING (12 LOCATIONS)

Regus One Corporate Avenue

guangdonginfo@grmchina.com

Regus China World Tower 3

15/F One Corporate Avenue

15/F China World Tower 3,

222 Hubin Road

1 Jianguomenwai Avenue

Luwan District

Chaoyang District

Regus Jin Mao Tower

CHENDU (3 LOCATIONS)

31/F Jin Mao Tower

Regus Yanlord Landmark

88 Shiji Avenue

Apollo Business Center

36/F, Yanlord Landmark Office

Lujiazui, Pudong

Apollo Huaihai Center [New]

Tower

Regus One Prime

4/F, Fuxing Commercial Building

No.1, Section 2, Renmin South

25 F, One Prime

139 Ruijin Road (No.1)

Road

No. 360, Wu Jin Road,

Huangpu

Serviced Offices

Jinjiang District

Hongkou District,

Shanghai

Vantone Commercial Center

CHONGQING

SHENZHEN (5 LOCATIONS)

Tel: 021-6136-6088

www.VantoneCommercialCenter.

Regus Yangtze River

Regus Futian NEO

Apollo Flagship Center

com

International Plaza

44/F, NEO Tower A

Apollo Building

Level 26 & 27, Tower D, Vantone

33/F Yangtze River International

6011 Shennan Avenue

1440 Yan’an Road (M)

Center, No 6 Chaowai Ave

Plaza

Futian District

Jing’an

Chaoyang, Beijing

22 Nanbin Road

Regus New World Centre

Shanghai

Tel: +86 10 5905 5905

Nanan District

(NEW)

Tel: 021-6133-1888

The Executive Centre

DALIAN

23/F, New World Center,

Apollo Tomson Center

Shanghai

Regus Dalian World Trade

No. 6009, Yitian Road,

22/F, Tomson Commercial

International Finance Centre

Center

Futian District

Building

Level 8, International Finance

12/F, 25 Tongxing Street

SUZHOU

710 Dongfang Road

Center, 8 Century Avenue,

Zhongshan District

Regus Suzhou JinHope plaza

Pudong

Pudong

GUANGZHOU (5 LOCATIONS)

(COMING SOON)

Shanghai

CITIC Square

Regus G.T. Land Plaza (NEW)

11/F, Tower2, Jin Hope Plaza

Tel: 021-6165-2288

Level 35, CITIC Square, 1168

12/F, Tower A, Phase 1

88 Hua Chi Street, SIP

Apollo Xuhui Center

Nanjing West Road, Jing’an

G.T. Land Plaza, No. 85

TIANJIN (2 LOCATIONS)

16/F, Feidiao International

Xintiandi

Huacheng Avenue

Regus Tianjin Centre

Building

Level 5, Xintiandi, 159 Madang

Tian He District

8/F Tianjin Centre

1065 Zhaojiabang Road

Road, Luwan

HANGZHOU (4 LOCATIONS)

No.219 Nanjing Road

Xuhui

The Centre

Regus Euro American Centre

Heping District

Shanghai

Level 20,The Centre, 989

4/F Euro America Center

WUHAN

Tel: 021-5158-1688

Changle Road, Xuhui

18 Jiaogong Road,

Regus Wuhan Tiandi –

Apollo Hongqiao Center

Chong Hing Finance Centre

Xihu District

Corporate Centre 5

26/F, New Town Center Building

Level 12, Chonghing Finance

NANJING

8F, Wuhan Tiandi – Corporate

83 Loushanguan Road

Centre, 288 Nanjing West Road,

Regus Jinling Hotel Asia Pacific

Center 5,

Changning

Huangpu

Tower (COMING SOON)

No. 1628 Zhong Shan Avenue,

Shanghai

Tel: +86 21 6062 7183

8 F, Jinling Hotel Asia Pacific

Jiang’an District

Tel: 021-3133-2688

Shanghai@executivecentre.com

Tower No. 2, Hanzhong Road, Gulou District

如想刊登贵公司信息,敬请联系如下负责人:

Regus Plaza 66

邮件 Email: marketing@sinomedia.net

No.1266, West Nanjing Road, Jing’an District

May 2013

representatives at:

SHANGHAI (21 LOCATIONS)

15/F, Tower 2, Plaza 66,

78

To have your company featured in these pages, please contact our

电话 Tel: +86 21 53859061 2205, Shanghai Plaza, No.138 Huaihaizhong Rd, Shanghai, China, 200021 中国上海市淮海中路138号上海广场2205 邮编:200021


CER May 2013  

China Economic Review 中经评论

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