Culture Mapping | A Strategic Primer (Draft Chapter)

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C U LT U R E M A PPI N G A ST R AT EGIC PR I M ER

by M a r i e L e n a T u p ot a n d T i m S to c k

Contents 1. Introduction..........page 5 2. Structure..........page 13 3. Time..........page 21 Copyright © 2024 scenarioDNA inc.

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4. Language..........page 29 5. Context..........page 38 6. Patterns..........page 46 7. Narratives..........page 54 8. Intelligence..........page 62

DRAFT

1. Introduction Crafting a framework for strategic insights using a living foresight model and structured analytics

DRAFT

A living foresight model is a dynamic framework designed to anticipate and navigate future possibilities and trends. It operates as an adaptive system, constantly evolving and responding to new information and emerging patterns. Similar to a living organism, it thrives on input, feedback, and iteration, continuously refining its predictions and recommendations.

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By integrating diverse data sources, the living foresight model offers a comprehensive understanding of potential futures. It serves as a valuable tool for organizations and decision-makers, helping them proactively shape strategies, mitigate risks, and seize opportunities in an ever-changing landscape. With its ability to flexibly adapt and learn, the living foresight model empowers stakeholders to navigate uncertainty with confidence.

Unlike traditional foresight models, which often rely on historical data, expert opinions, and quantitative analysis, a living foresight model continuously updates and refines its insights based on real-time or near real-time information. It embraces complexity and uncertainty, actively seeking out new perspectives and adjusting its predictions accordingly. By integrating machine learning algorithms and leveraging big data analytics, it can process vast amounts of information

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Culture Mapping: A Strategic Primer

at speed, enabling rapid responses to changing conditions and emerging trends.

That said, in a living foresight model, smaller packets of data are equally important – one might argue that they are more important. Insights gleaned from them could relate to micro-trends, localized patterns, or specific events that might not be apparent when analyzing large datasets. The loudest signals are not early indicators of cultural shifts. Smaller datasets allow for seeing the earliest indications, prompting new questions sooner than later.

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Looking at both big and small data places an organization in a preemptive foresight stance. And by continuously monitoring these streams, the living foresight model can detect subtle changes, anomalies, or emerging trends as they happen and respond accordingly. Foresight cannot be turned on and off. It is human nature to constantly seek patterns.

The ideal foresight plan should be an ongoing initiative, not an intermittent series of reports that force researchers through a subjective lookback process incorporating their own memory. Feedback loops then can be established within the initiative, improving predictive accuracy and adaptability over time.

Further, a living foresight model fosters collaboration and co-creation, engaging stakeholders in ongoing dialog to enhance collective understanding and decision-making. This iterative approach not only enhances the relevance of forecasts but also builds resilience and agility in organizations facing an increasingly volatile and unpredictable future.

The increasing interconnectedness of issues means that disruptions in one area can have cascading effects across multiple domains. For example, the global pandemic impacted not only public health but

Culture Mapping: A Strategic Primer

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also economies, supply chains, and social structures.

A living foresight model helps identify these interdependencies and anticipate their implications, sharpening critical thinking.

Consider Culture Mapping a form of “knolling.” The term “knolling” originated in 1987 from Andrew Kromelow, who worked as a janitor at Frank Gehry’s furniture fabrication shop (Wanamanuk, 2023). Kromelow habitually arranged any tools displaced during work at right angles on all surfaces, which he termed knolling because of the right-angle arrangement resembling Knoll furniture. This practice resulted in neatly organized surfaces that enabled users to observe all objects simultaneously. Artist Tom Sachs who once worked at Knoll took it one step beyond, incorporating the phrase “Always Be Knolling (ABK)” into his own studio processes.

DRAFT Culture Mapping as Process and Framework

What we present in this primer is our version of a living foresight model. We call it Culture Mapping.

As you will see in the coming chapters, Culture Mapping is a holistic framework approach to foresight encompassing structure, time, language, context, patterns, and narrative.

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Structure within Culture Mapping involves framing the question, embracing abstraction, and ensuring diversity of voices. It’s useless to be rudderless when exploring. Structure guides the analysis of hierarchical arrangements, networks, and social orders within societies, organizations, or systems.

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Time plays a crucial role in shaping cultures and influencing trajectories. We need to see the longitudinal increments. Culture Mapping considers historical trends, temporal cycles, and projections to gain insights into how cultures evolve over time and anticipate future developments.

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Culture Mapping: A Strategic Primer

Language serves as a key medium through which culture is expressed and transmitted. Language is innate to all of us. Culture Mapping involves analyzing linguistic patterns, symbols, and metaphors to uncover underlying values, beliefs, and cultural norms that shape collective behavior and perceptions.

Contextual understanding is essential for interpreting cultural dynamics and anticipating trends. It is critical to see what’s happening around a phenomenon, not just the phenomenon in isolation. Culture Mapping examines the socio-political, economic, environmental, and technological contexts in which cultures operate to identify drivers of change and potential disruptors.

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Patterns provide valuable clues about recurring behaviors, trends, and dynamics within cultures.

These patterns demonstrate recirculation and evolution. Culture Mapping involves identifying and analyzing patterns of interaction, consumption, innovation, and adaptation.

Narrative plays a powerful role in shaping collective identity, aspirations, and visions of the future. It’s essentially human to relate to stories. Culture Mapping involves deconstructing narratives, myths, and stories prevalent within cultures to understand underlying worldviews, aspirations, and potential future scenarios.

By integrating these dimensions into its approach, Culture Mapping enables foresight practitioners to uncover hidden dynamics and confidently navigate the complexities of an ever-changing world. The difference is our use of structure via a semiotic matrix that classifies cultural signals (Tupot and Stock, 2015).

Culture Mapping: A Strategic Primer

Classifying enables the identification of redundancies in the behavioral drivers behind trends and highlights potential biases, enabling an organization to transform gradually in step with emergent culture without reinforcing the status quo.

Elevating Structured Analytics Structured analytics is not new. It has its roots in various disciplines, including mathematics, statistics, operations research, and computer science. While the term itself might not have been coined until relatively recently, the foundational concepts and techniques have been developed over many decades.

One of the earliest instances of structured analytics can be traced back to the work of early statisticians such as Sir Ronald Fisher and Karl Pearson in the late 19th and early 20th centuries (Rodgers, 2010).

They laid the groundwork for statistical analysis, hypothesis testing, and experimental design, which are fundamental components of structured analytical approaches.

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During World War II, operations research (OR) emerged as a formal discipline aimed at applying scientific methods to military operations (Fortun and Schweber, 1993). OR practitioners used mathematical models and analytical techniques to optimize resource allocation, logistics, and strategic planning. This marked a significant advancement in structured decision-making processes.

In the post-war period, the rise of computers facilitated the development of more sophisticated analytical methods. Techniques such as linear programming, simulation, and optimization became increasingly prevalent in fields like business, engineering, and economics (Manne, 1960; Hoggatt et al, 1963; Céa, 1975). These methods allowed for

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Culture Mapping: A Strategic Primer

the systematic analysis of complex systems and decision problems.

The field of decision analysis also emerged during this time, focusing on formalizing the process of decisionmaking under uncertainty (Raiffa, 1968). Decision analysts developed frameworks, such as decision trees and influence diagrams, to structure decisions, evaluate alternatives, and quantify risks.

The possibilities for use cases of a living foresight model become endless with structured analytics. Imagine anticipating emergent genres for film producers, preemptively knowing which rights to secure, or identifying talent and untapped audiences. In the realm of industrial design, a living foresight model serves as a catalyst for innovation, providing designers with insights into emerging technologies, materials, and consumer behaviors. Retailers gain the foresight to not just react but proactively shape consumer trends. In a world where consumer behavior in healthcare is characterized by rapid changes and unpredictability, a living foresight model emerges as the ultimate game-changer for patient care, offering unparalleled insights and adaptability to navigate this disruptive landscape effectively. Urban planners could better see patterns of existing behavior that they could leverage toward more sustainable and resilient cities. And NGOs (Non-Governmental Organizations) could make better sense of public discourse to shape their strategies, programs, and advocacy efforts to address pressing social, environmental, and humanitarian challenges.

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Structured Analytic Techniques (SATs) began taking root in the 1970s as a fundamental aspect of intelligence analysis training programs in the United States. The concept was introduced to CIA intelligence officer Jack Davis by his colleague Richards Heuer (Chang et al, 2017). Heuer and Davis collaborated on the initial development of these methods, initially termed “alternative analysis.” Later, the term was modified to “structured analytic techniques,” and it was officially adopted as such in the CIA’s analyst training program in 2005.

Culture Mapping: A Strategic Primer

The U.S. government’s Analytic Tradecraft Primer, written by analysts Katherine Hibbs Pherson and Randolph H. Pherson in 2009, highlights the structured analytic techniques widely used in the private sector and academia, as well as those unique to the intelligence profession (Pherson and Pherson, 2009). The primer organizes techniques into three categories: diagnostic, contrarian, and imaginative.

Heuer’s book Structured Analytic Techniques for Intelligence Analysis elaborates on the techniques and was first published in 2010 (third edition 2020) and co-authored with Randy H. Pherson (Heuer and Pherson, 2010). We consider our Culture Mapping to fall under the imaginative category, which includes Brainstorming, Outside-in Thinking, Red Team Analysis, and Alternative Futures.

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Curiously, a 2016 study titled “Why do analysts use structured analytic techniques? An in-depth study of an American intelligence agency” by Stephen Coulthart, PhD, found that about a third of analysts indicated they never apply these techniques in their work (Coulthart, 2016). The research revealed that the most significant factors affecting use were the level of training received by analysts and, to a lesser extent, perceptions of the effectiveness and value.

In light of these findings, we offer this primer to foster a more productive perception of structured analytic techniques. We aspire to facilitate greater adoption of these valuable analytical tools into work practices, thereby leveraging the transformative potential unleashed by the advent of AI and machine learning, which has significantly broadened the capabilities of structured analytics. These technologies enable more efficient data analysis, pattern recognition, and predictive modeling, revolutionizing the concept of a living foresight model.

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