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Bombardier Commercial Aircraft | Market Forecast 2011-2030


table of contents Bombardier Commercial Aircraft | Market Forecast 2011-2030

executive summary

03

economic trends

07

airline industry trends

16

the forecast

23

conclusion

31

geographic detail

34

02


EXECUTIVE SUMMARY taking flight

03


executive summary Bombardier Commercial Aircraft | Market Forecast 2011-2030

Welcome to the Bombardier Aerospace Commercial Aircraft Market Forecast, our 20-year view of the market for 20- to 149-seat aircraft. Taking Flight The health of the commercial airline industry is highly dependent on the state of the economy. In late 2009, the global economic recovery began and air passenger traffic continues to follow suit. As the overall economy recovers, so does the level of passenger traffic. Both the economy and the airline industry continue to gain strength positively upward (despite the dual shocks of higher oil prices and the disaster in Japan). We believe that the momentum of growth created before these events will continue. As well as the overall health of the global economy, a number of themes drive our 20- to 149-seat forecast: the impact of environmental issues in aviation, the optimization of aircraft for maximum efficiency and profitability, as well as the geographic shift in aircraft demand. Environmental: From a global perspective, modernization of aircraft is a key contributor to reducing the carbon footprint of the airline

industry while meeting the increased demand for air travel. The first quarter of our forecast period will see the introduction of new engine technologies and airframe designs that will reduce fuel burn and make a significant contribution to the industry’s commitment to carbon-neutral growth. High oil prices, yield pressures and environmental concerns will continue to shift aircraft demand to larger capacity and new, more fuel efficient aircraft models.

Delivery Forecast (Units) Segments

Delivered

20- to 59-seat

300

60- to 99-seat

5,800

100- to 149-seat

7,000

20- to 149-seat total

13,100

Source: Bombardier Commercial Aircraft Market Forecast 2011-2030

04


executive summary Bombardier Commercial Aircraft | Market Forecast 2011-2030

Total Fleet Units

11,000 Units

The Evolution of the 20- to 149-seat Marketplace

17,400 Units

20,000

9,200

16,000

5,200

12,000

8,000

4,000

6,800

Geographic Shift: Emerging economic markets represent the highest growth opportunities for aviation, while stability is predicted in more mature markets. As a percentage of the total deliveries, new aircraft demand will increase for emerging markets outside of North America and Europe.

Total Fleet Units

2,200 3,600

Optimization: As the aerospace industry finds its post-downturn footing, it is also developing and evolving new models that capture more efficiencies and return higher yields. Airframe and engine manufacturers will continue to innovate and deliver designs that optimize economics, performance and use new technologies that enhance the products in the capacity segments they serve. Additionally, airlines are creating or refining business models designed to reduce costs, reduce network inefficiencies and increase profitability.

1,400

0

2010

2030

100- to 149-seat 60- to 99-seat

The 20- to 149-seat market: Over the next 20 years, Bombardier forecasts demand for 13,100 aircraft in the 20- to 149-seat market. This segment, part of the overall industry, will generate approximately $639 billion in total sales. This represents an increase of 300 new aircraft deliveries compared to last year’s forecast. The 20to 99-seat category will account for 34% of these revenues ($215 billion) while the 100- to 149-seat segment will generate 66% or $424 billion of the total.

20- to 59-seat Source: Bombardier Commercial Aircraft Market Forecast 2011-2030, OAG Aviation Solutions

Overall, Bombardier’s confidence in the evolution and growth of the airline industry remains strong. We are excited to be an integral part of an industry that is taking flight. The next 20 years hold great promise of air transportation modernization through more efficient aircraft and engine designs, step-changes in air traffic modernization, cockpit and other technologies.

Combined with our forecast of fleet, deliveries and retirement of jets in the 100- to 149-seat segment, this forecast provides internal guidance for Bombardier's commercial aircraft market forecast strategic planning process and public transparency of our view of the airline marketplace. Bombardier’s Commercial Aircraft Market Forecast focuses on three distinct seat segments; 20- to 59seat, 60- to 99-seat and 100- to 149-seat. Within the lower two seat categories, aircraft deliveries include families of turboprops and regional jets. The two engine types and aircraft designs cover the full spectrum of regional airline operating cost and mission needs. The 20- to 59-seat segment remains a key component of the regional airline industry. Demand for new aircraft in this segment is expected to arise in the latter half of the forecast period, with some 300 units delivered. These new deliveries are driven by two key factors, mainly the anticipated retirement of today’s active 20- to 59-seat aircraft and new aircraft technology being applied to this seat segment. In the near and mid terms, this segment will exhibit evolutionary vitality in the pre-owned or secondary market. In particular, Russia, Africa and Latin America will see considerable absorption of used 50-seat regional jets.

05


executive summary Bombardier Commercial Aircraft | Market Forecast 2011-2030

The 60- to 99-seat segment has established itself as the new foundation of the regional market. Regional airlines are shifting their fleets to larger aircraft, both turboprop and jet. These aircraft offer greater passenger capacity and lower operating costs per seat while meeting passenger demand for increased frequencies and schedules to primary, secondary and tertiary airports. Regional airline aircraft are increasingly configured to provide two classes of seating (business and economy) in order to provide seamless services across the airline network. We forecast 5,800 units for delivery in this segment. The 100- to 149-seat segment will exhibit the strongest growth of the three segments we study in our Forecast. The 100- to 149seat segment today is dominated by a fleet of aging aircraft. With the current average age of 19 years, we estimate that 58% of the current 100- to 149-seat aircraft will be retired from passenger service by the end of this forecast period. The global economy and the aviation marketplace are gaining strength. Driven by higher gross domestic product (GDP) growth projections, we at Bombardier Commercial Aircraft believe that this global economic momentum will continue to bring the airline industry back to growth. We are confident that there will be a demand for

new, larger, more fuel efficient aircraft, with some 13,100 new 20- to 149-seat aircraft delivered in the next 20 years.

06


ECONOMIC TRENDS taking flight

07


economic trends Bombardier Commercial Aircraft | Market Forecast 2011-2030

Economic and Aviation Industry Growth

World Real GDP Growth %, 2010

World Average 3.9%

In late 2009, the world economy began its recovery, and the airline industry is also growing again. Year-over-year GDP growth for 2010 was 3.9%, and is forecast to be 3.5% in 2011. GDP is projected to grow at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 3.4% over the next 20 years, up from 3.2% in last year’s forecast.

< 0% 0 to 2% 2 to 4% 4 to 6%

The positive growth trend of the airline industry can also be measured by the demand for new aircraft. In 2010, orders were placed for 1,362 commercial aircraft, more than double the 631 placed in 2009.

> 6%

Source: IHS Global Insight, February 2011. Note 1: GDP = Gross Domestic Product

Commercial Aircraft Orders Lag GDP Growth 3500

7% 6%

3000

5% 2500

4% 3%

2000

2% 1500

1%

1000

0% -1%

500

-2% -3%

Commercial Aircraft Orders Source: Bombardier Analysis, OAG Aviation Solutions, IHS Global Insight

GDP Growth (IHS Global Insignt Feb 2011)

2009

2007

2005

2003

2001

1999

1997

1995

1993

1991

1989

1987

1985

1983

1981

1979

1977

1975

1973

0 1971

As the economy continues to strengthen, it is anticipated that capacity increases will mirror order increases, and some, but not all, modern aircraft currently parked will return to commercial service. The mixture of parked and retired aircraft has altered in response to increased demand for passenger travel. The total parked aircraft fleet has declined year-over-year by 8%. There are currently 2,288 commercial aircraft parked, down from the high of 2,496 in 2009, but still above the 10-year low of 1,681 in 2007.

08


economic trends Bombardier Commercial Aircraft | Market Forecast 2011-2030

North America and Europe currently represent the two largest airline fleets and the largest sources of demand for new aircraft. Over the 20-year forecast period, Bombardier anticipates strong growth in air traffic and fleets across many emerging markets, although starting from a much smaller base. Demand from outside North America and Europe will increase considerably as world economies grow. In particular, India,

China, Latin America, Middle East and Africa will lead with projected real GDP growth above the world average of 3.4%.

drives demand for aircraft to satisfy the growing base of travelers, reinforcing our positive outlook for these markets.

By 2030, economies outside of North America and Europe will account for 51% of global GDP, up 11 percentage points from their current position. As a countryâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s GDP per capita grows, so too does its residents' propensity to travel. This propensity in turn

Bombardier takes a positive view of the economic growth forecast, as it exhibits an upward turn following the recent downturn.

Propensity to Travel

GDP Growth Rates Compound Annual Growth Rate (2011-2030)

10

Switzerland

Hong Kong Australia Canada

Portugal 1

South Africa

United States

Ireland

Trips Per Capita

China

7.2%

6% 5%

Israel

0.1

7.5%

7%

Denmark

Germany

Brazil

8%

Qatar

4.4% 4.3%

4.1%

4%

Russia

3.4% 2.7%

3%

India

2.4% 1.9%

2% 1%

0.01

$20,000

$30,000

$40,000 GDP Per Capita

Source: IHS Global Insight, MIDT data, Bombardier Analysis

$50,000

$60,000

$70,000

Europe

Middle East

Africa

China

Source: IHS Global Insight, Feb 2011, Bombardier Analysis

Asia/Pacific (ex. China, India)

$10,000

North America

$0

Latin America

0.001

India

World

0%

09


economic trends Bombardier Commercial Aircraft | Market Forecast 2011-2030

Airline Capacity Bombardier’s forecast model uses fleet seats as a major driver of the relationship between GDP and deliveries. Fleet seats are the total number of passenger seats in all in-service commercial aircraft. As a measure of airline capacity, total fleet-seats in commercial aircraft are anticipated to grow by 75% over the forecast period.

The 2008-2009 economic recession resulted in decreased passenger demand and consequent airline capacity reductions. Historically, previous capacity reduction events have had a positive effect on airline decisions to “right-size” aircraft and to optimize their fleet and networks. This, in turn, enabled these airlines to increase their capacity quickly increase their capacity as the economy turned upward in 2009.

Commercial Aircraft Capacity Worldwide by Seat Category

Total airline capacity increased 2.3% yearover-year between February 2010 and February 2011. This is a significant change from the previous year-over-year 2.5% decrease in capacity. Airlines are experiencing gains in traffic, load factors and yields, and many airlines are projected to show operating profits in 2011. The annual average load factor for all US commercial airlines in 2010 was 77.9%, an increase of 2.4 percentage points from 2009. While airline traffic increased in 2010, yields remain below the decade's highest levels in 2008.

Fleet seats, 20- to 149-seat aircraft, Calendar year 2000-2030

Forecast capacity increases will not be evenly distributed across the globe. In 2010, North America experienced reduced capacity, while China and the Middle East experienced double digit year-over-year capacity growth.

1.8 1.6

Actual

Forecast

Fleet Seats (millions)

1.4 1.2

Bombardier is confident that total fleet-seats on all in-service commercial aircraft will increase by 75% over the forecast period in the 20- to 149-seat range.

1.0 0.8 0.6 0.4 0.2 0.0 2000

2005

2010 20- to 59-seats

Source: Bombardier Commercial Aircraft Market Forecast 2011-2030

2015 60- to 99-seats

2020 100- to 149-seats

2025

2030

10


economic trends Bombardier Commercial Aircraft | Market Forecast 2011-2030

Oil price and volatility Oil price is a critical determinant of jet fuel price and remains a key factor in forecasting the shape and size of the future aviation fleet. Fuel has been the single highest operating cost factor for airlines since 2006, where it surpassed labour costs. Fuel represents 25.4% of costs, or 3.27 cents per available seat mile (asm). Today, the combination of labour and fuel costs account for 50.1% of

all airline operating costs, with labour representing 24.7% of costs, or 3.18 cents per asm.

reaching a spot price of $145 per barrel in the summer of 2008 and falling to a low of $30 per barrel in the winter of the same year.

Oil (Cushing spot price) averaged $19 per barrel in the 1990s and $51 in the 2000s. A new plateau has been reached, with oil averaging $76 per barrel over the last five years and hovering just above $98 per barrel in the first quarter of 2011. The last three years saw extremely volatile oil prices,

According to the US Energy Information Administration, the average price of oil for the next 20 years will be $107 per barrel. This estimate is a $4 per barrel increase from its 2010 forecast.

Operating Cost History: Fuel & Labour

6.0

Unit Operating Cost (Cents per Available Seat Mile)

5.0

Oil prices also influence airline decisions to replace less efficient aircraft types and to optimize network operations. This influence is evident with the increase in demand for new generation, highly fuel-efficient turboprop aircraft. In addition, major airlines continue to remove older less efficient out-of-production aircraft from their fleet, replacing them with newer, more efficient jets.

4.0

3.0

2.0

1.0

Labour

Source: Air Transport Association of America, 2011

Fuel

3Q 10

1Q 10

3Q 09

1Q 09

3Q 08

1Q 08

3Q 07

1Q 07

3Q 06

1Q 06

3Q 05

1Q 05

3Q 04

1Q 04

3Q 03

1Q 03

3Q 02

1Q 02

3Q 01

1Q 01

3Q 00

1Q 00

0.0

According to the US Energy Information Administration, the average price of oil for the next 20 years will be $107 per barrel.

11


economic trends Bombardier Commercial Aircraft | Market Forecast 2011-2030

Weekly WTI â&#x20AC;&#x201C; Cushing Spot Price (Dollars per Barrel) $130 $120 $110 $100 Cushing 2011 Avg.: $98.35

Cushing 2010 Avg.: $79.48

$90 $80 $70 $60

Cushing 2009 Avg.: $61.95

17-Apr-2011

17-May-2011

17-Mar-2011

17-Jan-2011

17-Feb-2011

17-Dec-2010

17-Oct-2010

17-Nov-2010

17-Sep-2010

17-Aug-2010

17-Jul-2010

17-Jun-2010

17-Apr-2010

17-May-2010

17-Mar-2010

17-Jan-2010

17-Feb-2010

17-Dec-2009

17-Oct-2009

17-Nov-2009

17-Sep-2009

17-Aug-2009

17-Jul-2009

17-Jun-2009

17-Apr-2009

17-May-2009

$50

Source: Energy Information Administration, 2011. Note: 1 FOB = Freight On Board.

Oil price volatility creates uncertainty throughout the marketplace; from setting fares to forecasting passenger traffic volumes, airline workload requirements and fleet replacement timing and decisions. Oil price volatility impacts on the ability of airlines to forecast direct operating costs accurately on daily, monthly and annual bases.

Oil Forecast $140

Actual

Forecast

$120

Average: $107 USD per barrel $100 $80 $60

Overall, Bombardier believes that oil prices will remain volatile in the near-term forecast period, but in combination with other factors, such as technological improvements, will accelerate the retirement of older equipment in favor of more modern, efficient aircraft.

$40 $20 $0

1980

1985

1990

Source: Bombardier Analysis, EIA April 2011

1995

2000

2005

2010

2015

2020

2025

2030

12


economic trends Bombardier Commercial Aircraft | Market Forecast 2011-2030

Retirements Aircraft retirement and replacement is one of many influential variables in determining future aircraft delivery and fleet composition. Historically, older aircraft are replaced as newer, more cost effective, and fuel efficient aircraft become available. In addition to fuel price and volatility, a wide array of factors impact aircraft retirement timing ranging from international and local (airport) noise and emissions fees and regulations; airline branding and competitive

Oil Price and Engine Type Forecast Delivery by Engine Type 20- to 99-seats Units, %, Actual 2001 and 2010, Forecast 2011-2030 period

Oil @ $26 per barrel

319

Oil @ $79 per barrel

218

Oil @ an average of $107 per barrel

6100

48%

As 50-seat regional jets reach 20+ years of age, many will be converted into freighter aircraft. Sizeable opportunities exist for small jet freighters (between 5,000 and 20,000 lbs. of payload) to replace the more than 1,100 aircraft currently in all-cargo service worldwide. Nearly all of the aircraft in this fleet are older turboprops averaging 29 years of age.

Most aircraft move through a series of lifecycle stages. Historically, passenger aircraft when retired from commercial operation move into cargo operations. A recent trend with some cargo operators is to purchase large, purpose-built new cargo aircraft. Other aircraft are placed in secondary markets with

Commercial Aircraft Retirement Curve 100% 90% 80%

Units

70%

12% 41%

commercial operators with different utilization needs, different operating environments and business models.

environment, financial and tax considerations (maintenance costs, depreciation, incentives) to airline growth strategies, the structural age of the aircraft and available new products and replacement opportunities.

Turboprop

Standard Commercial Passenger Aircraft Retirement Curve

60% 50% 40%

88%

30%

52%

59%

Regional Jet

20%

80% retired from commercial passenger service 10%

2001 Actual

2010 Actual

2030 Forecast

Source: Bombardier Commercial Aircraft Market Forecast 2011-2030, Energy Information Administration 2011-2030 forecast

0% 1

3

5

Source: Bombardier Analysis

7

9

11

13

15

17

19

21

23

25

27

29

31

33

35

37

39

41

43

45

13


economic trends Bombardier Commercial Aircraft | Market Forecast 2011-2030

Age, combined with limited range, will accelerate this transformation of the smaller all-cargo fleet. Currently, there is a trend towards regional jets moving into Russia, Latin America and Africa. Regulatory requirements also influence the aviation fleet mix and the pace of retirement. Regulations by the International Civil Aviation Organisation, Committee on Aviation and Environmental Protection (ICAO/CAEP) in the last century led to the phase-out of noisier aircraft from US and European commercial fleets. New noise and emissions standards are being set during this round of ICAO/CAEP

(2010-2013) that will further restrict both noise and emissions, and significantly impact the composition of the future global aviation fleet. The European Union is also advancing an Emissions Trading Scheme involving air transportation which could dramatically affect aircraft operating in or overflying European airspace.

of these newer aircraft have now, 10 years later, returned to active service.

Often, exogenous events, such as the attacks of September 11th, 2001, disrupt the normal life cycle processes of aircraft. After 9/11, older commercial aircraft retirements were accelerated and even new model aircraft were temporarily parked. Many, but not all,

We anticipate that 60% of the current 20- to 149-seat fleet will retire by 2030, with retirements lowest in the 60- to 99-seat segment. Seventy percent of current 20- to 59-seat aircraft will be retired, driven by the industry shift to larger capacity aircraft and

The base assumption within the Bombardier forecast model is that, on average, approximately 80% of aircraft will retire from commercial passenger service within 28 years. A few aircraft will enjoy longer service.

Fleet evolution from 2010 to 2030

In Service Aircraft 15 Years of Age or Over

20- to 149-seat aircraft 2500

17,400

2000

6,400 (49%)

Growth

11,000

Units

1500

1000

Retirements

6,700 (51%)

Retained Fleet

4,300

500

0 10- to 19-Seats

20- to 39-Seats

Source: OAG Aviation Solutions, Bombardier Analysis

40- to 59-Seats

60- to 99-Seats

100- to 149-Seats

150- to 174-Seats

175- to 219-Seats

220+ Seats

2010 In Service Fleet

2030 In Service Fleet

Source: Bombardier Commercial Aircraft Market Forecast 2011-2030

13,100 Deliveries

14


economic trends Bombardier Commercial Aircraft | Market Forecast 2011-2030

higher operating costs per seat, driven by high fuel prices. In the absence of in-production 20- to 59-seat aircraft during the near-term forecast period, this segment, representing 33% of todayâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s 20- to 149-seat fleet, will represent only 8% of the fleet in 2030. By way of contrast, the near-term market will see the introduction of new-generation 100- to 149-seat aircraft. This segment will represent 53% of the total 20- to 149-seat fleet in 2030. Both retirements and growth in this segment will be high. In response to the introduction of aircraft optimized for the 100- to 149-seat segment, 7,000 units will be delivered and 3,000 aircraft will be retired. More than half of the current commercial aircraft fleet will be replaced in the next 20 years due to technical obsolescence, cost inefficiencies, and age. The retirement of older aircraft types will have a positive impact on the demand for new aircraft.

More than half of the current commercial aircraft fleet will be replaced in the next 20 years due to technical obsolescence, cost inefficiencies, and age.

15


AIRLINE INDUSTRY TRENDS taking flight

16


airline industry trends Bombardier Commercial Aircraft | Market Forecast 2011-2030

Airline Economics The International Air Transport Association (IATA) suggests that international air traffic has returned to profitability. In 2010, airline passenger traffic levels recovered as the global economy gained strength. IATA reports that international passenger air traffic increased by 8.2% in 2010 compared to 2009 and is expected to increase by another 4.4% in 2011. The Asia/Pacific region, while still well below traffic levels in Europe and the US in terms of overall passenger numbers, has been relatively less affected by the downturn. However, domestic and international passenger traffic levels in the US and Europe, the worldâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s two largest air travel markets, has yet to recover to the high levels recorded in 2007. Looking forward, in a report released in February 2011, IATA predicts that there will

be 3.3 billion air travelers globally in calendar year 2014, up 38% from 2.4 billion in 2010. A continued solid traffic growth will be a key factor supporting the recovery of the global airline industry.

Airline Business Models Respecting revenues, global commercial profits were $18 billion in 2010, and IATA anticipates that profits will remain moderate at $4.0 billion in 2011. They attribute the lower profitability forecast in 2011 to the increasing cost of oil, calculating that fuel cost increases added an extra $20 billion to airlinesâ&#x20AC;&#x2122; costs in 2010 alone. IATA estimates that the reduction in profitability would have been significantly greater were it not balanced by better-thanforecast economic growth combined with relatively stable and high load factors. The positive effect of continued traffic growth is overshadowed by the negative effect of high oil prices, resulting in decreased airline profitability. The ever-changing conditions

Airline Industry Net Profits (Billions US$) Region

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011F

World

14.7

-16.0

-9.9

18.0

4.0

North America

5.5

-9.6

-2.7

4.1

1.2

Europe

6.4

0.0

-4.3

1.9

0.5

Asia/Pacific

3.0

-4.7

-2.7

10.0

2.1

Middle East

-0.1

-0.3

-0.6

0.9

0.1

Latin America

0.1

-1.4

0.5

0.9

0.1

Africa

-0.2

-0.1

-0.1

0.1

-0.1

Source: International Air Transportation Association (IATA), June, 2011

have forced airlines to be disciplined in cost control and innovative in revenue management. The fundamentals still sound for a very resilient industry

Within the airline industry, three recognized passenger carrying business models exist, each with distinctive characteristics: Mainline carriers, Low-Fare carriers (LFCs) and regional carriers. Mainline carriers typically operate fleets of aircraft with 100 or more seats in hub-andspoke networks, serving numerous cities and countries. Mainline carrier evolution has led to the replacement of older equipment with newer, more efficient aircraft. Network optimization through specialization has led to strong partnerships between mainline and regional carriers. Regional carriers enable mainline carriers to right-size aircraft for passenger demand throughout their network, typically right-sized through regional carrier affiliates. These regional carriers commonly operate aircraft of 100 seats or less and serve short to medium-haul markets, where traffic levels are low. Right-sized aircraft fulfill the market demand for frequency and schedule. Equipped with regional jets and turboprops, regional carriers operate one-third of all commercial passenger flights worldwide.

17


airline industry trends Bombardier Commercial Aircraft | Market Forecast 2011-2030

More variation exists within the low-fare carrier (LFC) business models. LFCs have helped open air travel to passengers who could not previously afford. LFCs commonly offer point-to-point service between secondary airports, operate aircraft ranging from 70 to 200 seats, and offer mainly low fares. In the past decade, the market share of regional and LFCs, both low cost providers, has grown significantly. Geographically, this growth has been strongest in North America

are optimized for short and medium-haul flights, while small single-aisle jets provide long-haul routing and capacity.

20.0

There will be 3,600 regional jets delivered in the next 20 years. The forecast 7,000 new single-aisle jets in the 100- to 149-seat segment will be optimized for markets up to 3,000 miles with medium-sized traffic volumes.

15.0

10.0

5.0

Labour Trends

0.0

-5.0

9* 20 0

20 3Q

4Q

09

09 20 2Q

09 20 1Q

20

08

-10.0

4Q

The average regional aircraft size in the US has increased, from 34 seats in 2000, to 50 seats in 2005 to 56 seats today. Similarly, the average US regional carrier trip length has increased from 296 statute miles in 2000, to 457 last year and to 464 statute miles today. In Europe, where scope clauses are less restrictive, average regional seating capacity has increased from 63 seats in 2001, to 72 seats in 2009 to 76 seats today. Average stage length, while shorter in Europe than the US, has increased from 384 status miles to 390 status miles over the same time period.

US Airline Segmentation Profitability Loss* Operating Profit/Loss as a % of Total Operating Costs

Regional airlines play a crucial role in providing air transportation in primary, secondary and tertiary markets. Regional airlines act as contractors for mainline airlines by connecting passengers from smaller cities to mainline hubs, thereby providing market access to smaller cities that would otherwise be costprohibitive to serve using larger mainline aircraft.

Network Source: US Bureau of Transportation Statistics, Jan 2011. *Most current available data **Low-Cost Carriers are also referred to as Low-Fare Carriers

Regional Low-cost**

and Europe, and today, LFCs are present in some form in nearly every region of the world. New business models are evolving and blurring distinctions among the three established airline business models. With capacities in the commercial aviation marketplace ranging from less than 50 seats to greater than 600 seats, “right-sizing” aircraft to fit the mission is critical for maintaining low costs. Regional jets in the 60- to 99-seat market offer optimized capacity solutions for longer routes with lower traffic volumes. Turboprops

Airline labour costs have decreased as a percent of total costs and highlight the adaptability of the industry. Specialization opportunities derived from outsourcing have contributed to overall cost reductions in a significant manner. Outsourcing of catering operations, maintenance services, and reservations have helped to lower airline costs dramatically. Outsourcing of scheduled operations to regional airlines provides mainline carriers with access to passengers in smaller cities that would otherwise be cost prohibitive for them. As low cost providers, regional carriers operate profitably on thin routes where mainline carriers could not. However, labour remains one of the two largest cost elements (fuel being the other) and optimization opportunities still exist. A constraint on regional carrier outsourcing opportunities has been “scope clauses” (negotiated agreements between mainline carrier labour

18


airline industry trends Bombardier Commercial Aircraft | Market Forecast 2011-2030

3,000

2,500

2,000

1,500

1,000

500

2009

2008

2007

2006

2005

2004

2003

As regional airlines worldwide address rising fuel costs and more stringent environmental regulations, the low fuel burn of turboprops compared to similarly sized regional jets will allow airlines to maintain capacity, while reducing fuel costs and shrinking their overall environmental footprint. Overall, 40% of the deliveries in the 20- to 99-seat market segment (6,100 units) will be turboprops. Of the 2,500 turboprops to be delivered, 2,350 will be sized for the 60- to 99-seat market.

2002

Aircraft and engine design play a critical role in airline fleet and network optimization. Many airlines have embraced turboprops as the most cost-effective method of serving short-haul markets. Increases in oil prices expanded the usage of turboprops by airlines worldwide, causing manufactures to increase the size and capability of the aircraft. In 2007, the presence of turboprops deployed by mainline carriers increased significantly. Turboprops will continue to play an integral role in the regional aircraft marketplace.

2001

Source: Air Transport Association of America (ATA), 2010 FTE: Full Time Equivalent employees, most current annual data

2000

Turboprops and Jets: Optimization in Practice

1999

1998

1997

1996

1995

1994

1993

1992

0 1991

Bombardier anticipates that scope clauses will evolve, permitting even larger aircraft to be flown by regional carriers. Changes to scope clauses that allow regional airlines to fly larger aircraft will have a positive impact on demand, as will the development of new business models.

US Airline Labour Productivity

Productivity, ASKs (000) per FTE

and management). These clauses often restrict the use, number and seating capacity of regional aircraft in the mainline carriersâ&#x20AC;&#x2122; network. Scope clauses are predominantly found in US and European airline labour agreements. Driven by necessity, scope clauses have evolved with the industry to become less restrictive with time, thus allowing for greater network optimization through specialization.

To achieve greatest efficiencies, jet aircraft are best used for longer routes. With no new 50-seat jets currently in production in the near-term, 70-seat turboprops represent a cost-effective replacement or supplement for those routes that are or were served by 50-seat jets.

19


airline industry trends Bombardier Commercial Aircraft | Market Forecast 2011-2030

Airlines and the Environment Global environmental issues and regulations will play an increasing role in shaping the look and size of aviation and aviation infrastructure. Environmental issues in aviation are often broadly categorized within the following categories: local air quality, aircraft emissions and community noise. The aviation industry has made signifcant progress in all three categories. Aviation has been improving its environmental performance consistently for the last 50 years. Greater efficiency directly benefits the profitability of our businesses, as well as the environment. â&#x20AC;˘

Modern aircraft achieve fuel efficiencies of 3.5 litres per 100 passenger km

â&#x20AC;˘

Aircraft operations have become 20% more fuel efficient over the past 10 years

Regional Market Segmentation 20%

18%

Large TP

16% Annual traffic growth (2002 to 2010)

Larger regional jets allow airlines to accommodate traffic growth and fly longer routes with optimized seating capacities, while reducing unit costs without comprising passenger comfort. In order to satisfy market frequency requirements on these longer routes, we expect that demand for regional jets will be greater than for turboprops. We believe that 59% of deliveries of aircraft up to 100 seats will be for regional jets during the forecast period 2011 to 2030.

14%

Large RJ

12%

10%

8%

6%

4%

Small TP/RJ

2%

0%

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

1600

Distance (nm) Source: Bombardier Analysis Note: World Origin & Destination markets with less than 1,000 passenger per day each way

Aircraft and engine design play a critical role in airline fleet and network optimization.

20


airline industry trends Bombardier Commercial Aircraft | Market Forecast 2011-2030

• •

Fuel use and emissions per passenger kilometer have been reduced by 70% in the last 50 years At the same time, the average range of commercial jet aircraft has increased to 15,200 km from 5,190 km in 1960, carrying more passengers further with less fuel

IATA Technology Roadmap, 2009 Riblets

Truss-braced wing

Spiroid wingtip

Cruise-efficient STOL

Advanced fly-by-wire

Wireless flight control system

Fly by light

MEA architecture

PEM fuel cell

Variable camber with new control surfaces

Solid-oxide fuel cell

Energy harvesting devices

Solid acid fuel cell

Natural laminar flow

Morphing materials

Hybrid laminar flow control

Morphing airframe

Engine replacements

Today’s aircraft are 20 decibels quieter than they were 40 years ago Despite growth in passenger numbers at an average of 5% each year, aviation has managed to decouple its emissions growth to around 3%, or some 20 million tonnes annually

Hybrid wing body

Wireless optical connections for IFE

Airframe & Systems

Today’s aircraft fly three times farther on the same amount of fuel than 30 years ago (75% fuel efficiency gain per passenger/km)

Advanced 3rd gen. core New engine core concepts Open rotor / unducted fan

Geared turbofan

Active stability management Thermal management

Advanced direct drive

Variable cycle

Adaptive cycles

Boundary-layer ingesting inlets

Counter-rotating fan

Engine

Embedded distributed multi-fan Adaptive / active flow control Ubiquitous composites Non-Brayton cycles Pulse detonation cycles Regenerative / recuperative cycle Biomass to fuel or biojet

Alternative Fuels Air Traffic Management

The aviation industry is making further environmental improvements with guidance from international bodies such as ICAO and Air Transport Action Group (ATAG). Key stakeholders – including Bombardier – are committed to moving toward carbon-neutral growth within the industry before the end of the forecast period and a 50% reduction in CO2 emissions by 2050 relative to 2005. In order to meet these commitments, the application of new technological developments to new aircraft design is paramount. The IATA Technology Roadmap provides a summary

Liquefied petroleum gas

Synthetic paraffinic kerosene

Liquid methane

Biodiesel

Compressed natural gas

Furans

Ethanol Liquid hydrogen

Transesterification fuels Butanol Data link communication

Retrofit

Required time of arrival Performance-based navigation

Update

Automatic dependent surveillance broadcast - OUT

New Aircraft < 2020

System-wide information management

New Aircraft > 2020

GNSS landing system via ground based augmentation system

All stages

Automatic dependent surveillance broadcast - IN

2010

2020

Source: International Air Transport Association (IATA) Technology Roadmap 2009.

2030

21


airline industry trends Bombardier Commercial Aircraft | Market Forecast 2011-2030

and assessment of technological opportunities for future aircraft. The roadmap looks at technologies that will reduce, neutralize and eventually eliminate the carbon footprint of aviation. Bombardier believes that the most equitable means to industry sustainability goals is through global initiatives led by bodies such as ICAO, with its four pillar approach of technology, operations, infrastructure change and economic measures. Reducing Bombardier's carbon and environmental footprints is critical. Though our corporate responsibility activities, we are committed to minimizing our manufacturing and operating footprint through increased efficiency, innovation on site, and creating environmental synergies through engagement with our supply chain partners. In sum, environmental concerns are being addressed by the aviation industry through the retirement of older aircraft, fleet modernization, technology, infrastructure and operational improvements. The progression of environmental awareness and regulations will have a positive effect on demand for efficient new aircraft.

Aviation has been improving its environmental performance consistently for the last 50 years.

22


THE FORECAST taking flight

23


the forecast Bombardier Commercial Aircraft | Market Forecast 2011-2030

All forecasts have an underlying set of assumptions and drivers. Our assumptions are: •

• In more mature economic markets, infrastructure will support demand for air travel

Demand for air travel is cyclical and directly related to economic growth and wealth creation over the long term

• Emerging regional economies will rebound during the first five-year period of the forecast. In some emerging markets, infrastructure will lag, constraining aviation growth

• Airline markets will continue their evolution towards liberalization • Fleet utilization is directly related to economic growth over time • The forecast for the 20-year average global GDP growth rate will be 3.4%, signifying a recovery from the 2008/09 recession • Oil prices are forecast to average $107 from 2011-2030, and fuel prices will affect fleet mix and usage

Aviation Infrastructure will support air travel demand over the long term

Airlines will continue to focus on reducing costs; leading to a preference for larger capacity aircraft in all segments Scope clauses are assumed to ‘ease’ over time, stimulating demand for regional aircraft Environmental regulations will also encourage airlines to seek, on a per-seat basis, lower fuel burn and emissions aircraft

Demand for air travel is cyclical and directly related to economic growth and wealth creation over the long term 20-Year Outlook Market Driver Economic Growth

Fuel Prices

Fuel Volatility

Replacement Demand

Fleet Growth Forecast Emerging Markets

Segments

Fleet 2010

Deliveries

Retirement

Fleet 2030

20- to 59-seat

3,600

300

2,500

1,400

60- to 99-seat

2,200

5,800

1,200

6,800

100- to 149-seat

5,200

7,000

3,000

9,200

11,000

13,100

6,700

17,400

Total Aircraft

Environmental Regulations

Source: Bombardier Commercial Aircraft Market Forecast 2011-2030

Environmental Fees

Labour Trends

Source: Bombardier Commercial Aircraft Market Forecast 2011-2030

Outlook

24


the forecast Bombardier Commercial Aircraft | Market Forecast 2011-2030

Summary Of the 13,100 aircraft deliveries predicted from 2011-2030, 2,500 will be turboprops. The remaining 10,600 will be jets, with 3,600 in the 20- to 90-seat segment and 7,000 in the 100- to 149-seat segment. While the absolute number of aircraft deliveries will be weighted towards North America and

Europe, still the dominant sources of aircraft demand, there is a shift in terms of the percentage of total deliveries. This is indicative of the increasing importance particularly of China and other Asia/Pacific countries where economic growth is projected to outpace the rest of the world over the forecast period.

GDP Distribution by Region

20- to 99-Seat Delivery Profile

Segment

100,000 Total GDP ($ Trillion)

20-Year Turboprop Forecast 20- to 99-Seat Aircraft

(2010 and 2030)

Turboprops

80,000

$49 Trillion (51% of World GDP)

41%

Regional Jets

59% 60,000

2011 CAMF

20- to 59-seat

150

60- to 99-seat

2,350

Total

2,500

Source: Bombardier Commercial Aircraft Market Forecast 2011-2030

20,000

Source: Bombardier Commercial Aircraft Market Forecast 2011-2030

0 2030

2010 North America Europe

Asia Pacific (ex. China) China ROW Source: Bombardier Commercial Aircraft Market Forecast 2011-2030, IHS Global Insight, Feb 2011 Note:1 GDP = Res Gross Domestic Product. 2 ROW = Rest of the World

Of the 13,100 aircraft deliveries predicted from 2011-2030, 2,500 will be turboprops

25


the forecast Bombardier Commercial Aircraft | Market Forecast 2011-2030

Regional 20-Year Delivery Outlook Units, 2011-2030

Europe & Russia/CIS 2,250

North America 4,860

Middle East 430

Latin America 1,000

Africa 550

Total World 2011-2030

13,100

Source: Bombardier Commercial Aircraft Market Forecast 2011-2030

China 2,310

Asia/ Pacific 1,700

26


the forecast Bombardier Commercial Aircraft | Market Forecast 2011-2030

20- to 59-Seat Segment The regional aircraft market has grown and with it a preference for larger regional aircraft. Despite this evolution, we foresee 300 new aircraft deliveries in the 20- to 59-seat segment. These deliveries will occur at the latter stages of the forecast period when the remaining older aircraft in this segment needs to be replaced and new technologies are ready to transform this seat segment. The regional jet aircraft will continue to represent a substantial base fleet of regional airlines in the near term and will give way to a vibrant secondary aircraft market over the long term. The capacity and range of 50-seat jets is attractive to emerging airline markets, where traffic volumes are low. As evidenced today in Africa, Latin America, and Eastern Europe, the 50-seat jet will remain in demand with potential to develop the travel industry further. New aircraft demand will be derived from replacement opportunities of older 20- to 59-seat aircraft towards the end of the forecast period.

The regional aircraft market has grown and with it a preference for larger regional aircraft.

27


the forecast Bombardier Commercial Aircraft | Market Forecast 2011-2030

60- to 99-Seat Segment The growth of the 60- to 99-seat segment will be dependent on the relationship between regional and mainline carriers. The outsourcing of regional aircraft flying to regional airlines, which have suitable cost structures, will continue to be the main focus for network optimization. Scope clauses in North America and Europe will continue to ease in order to meet the growing demand in this segment. In markets where scope clauses are absent, the attractive economics and the operational efficiency of regional aircraft in this segment will be used to right-size capacity to meet traffic demand. With the volatility of oil prices, turboprops become a good hedging tool. At short stage lengths, they are more economical than jets. High-speed turboprop aircraft are used by many airlines to replace 50-seat regional jets. The worldwide turboprop fleet has continued to grow and is experiencing resurgence in North America. Of the 2,500 turboprop deliveries predicted in our forecast, 2,350 will be in the 60- to 99-seat segment. Deliveries of regional jets in the 60- to 99-seat market will generate in excess of $137 billion in revenue. With a small current fleet, the size of this segment is expected to more than triple. Of the 3,600 regional jet deliveries

Bombardier Market Segment Evolution Fleet, Deliveries, Retirement: 2010-2030

60- to 99-seat

20- to 59-seat

100- to 149-seat 7,000

3,000

9,200 5,800

1,200 6,800 5,200

3,600

300

2,500 2,200

1,400

Fleet 2010: 11,000

Deliveries: 13,100

Retirements: 6,700

Fleet 2030: 17,400

Source: Bombardier Commercial Aircraft Market Forecast 2011-2030.

forecast, 3,450 will be in the 60- to 99-seat segment. These aircraft will be used by airlines around the world to improve their network capacity optimization.

The outsourcing of regional aircraft flying to regional airlines, which have suitable cost structures, will continue to be the main focus for network optimization.

28


the forecast Bombardier Commercial Aircraft | Market Forecast 2011-2030

100- to 149-Seat Segment The 100- to 149-seat segment represents the largest market growth opportunity. Current in-production aircraft are not optimized for this segment, because they are derivative of larger aircraft and not designed for this seat category. They have become economically impracticable in an atmosphere driven by efficiency and environmental sustainability. As well as economic cost, the added weight and drag of current products produce inefficiencies related to higher fuel burn and more CO2 emissions. The closest alternatives to the 100- to 149-seat segment are the next smaller and larger aircraft. An industry committed to a generational change in operating economics will shift focus back toward aircraft optimized for their segments and a significant improvement in profitability. Driving demand in this segment is the acceleration of older generation aircraft retirements. The OAG Fleet iNet database, for example, identifies 1,120 single-aisle aircraft in storage and temporarily inactive. This represents 8% of the total (active and parked) single-aisle fleet in February 2011, identical proportions from this time last year.

29


the forecast Bombardier Commercial Aircraft | Market Forecast 2011-2030

New aircraft demand for 100- to 149-seat aircraft will be for 7,000 deliveries over the next 20 years, generating sales of more than $424 billion. The total fleet will grow from 5,200 to 9,200 units, an increase of 35%. For new aircraft designed in this segment, change is in the air.

Profit zone â&#x20AC;&#x201C; Right-sizing aircraft for traffic demand High

Large RJ

New design small single-aisle jet

Current large single-aisle jet

Profit contribution per Departure

Bombardier forecasts that nearly 61% of todayâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s 100- to 149-seat fleet will be retired by 2030. New generation aircraft specifically designed for this segment will have superior economics, comfort, lightweight design and built-in operational flexibility. New designs will advance the retirement of older aircraft and stimulate demand for new services using aircraft of this capacity.

Current small single-aisle jet

Low 60

200 Passenger Demand per Departure

Source: US Department of Transportation, Bombardier Analysis RJ = Regional jet, Small single-aisle jet: 100- to 149-seats, Large single-aisle jet: 150+ seats

An industry committed to a generational change in operating economics will shift focus back toward aircraft optimized for their segments and a significant improvement in profitability.

30


CONCLUSION taking flight

31


conclusion Bombardier Commercial Aircraft | Market Forecast 2011-2030

The rising cost and volatility of oil prices is an area of concern in the aviation industry. It creates uncertainty in the planning activies of many airlines and operators. Combined with the political changes taking place in many of the oil producing countries and the recent climate events, the global demand for air travel has slowed in the near term. However, in the long term, the price of oil and its volatile nature will drive airlines to accelerate the retirement of older, less efficient equipment, increasing the demand for new-technology, fuel-efficient aircraft. Bombardierâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s view of the 20- to 149-seat aircraft market remains optimistic. Our confidence stems from the industryâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s relentless focus on optimization and efficiency. The overall fleet in this market will grow by 58% from 11,000 units in 2010 to 17,400 units in 2030. New aircraft deliveries will reach 13,100 units, valued at $639 billion over the next 20 years.

Bombardierâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s view of the 20- to 149-seat aircraft market remains optimistic.

32


conclusion Bombardier Commercial Aircraft | Market Forecast 2011-2030

Interesting shifts within the marketplace signal positive challenges to airlines, manufacturers and the aviation industry as a whole during the next 20 years, including: •

The 20- to 59-seat regional fleet will shrink by more than 60%

The 60- to 99-seat regional fleet will increase more than 300%

The turboprop share of deliveries will continue to increase

The 100- to 149-seat fleet will grow by almost 77%, from 5,200 today, to 9,200 units.

Going forward, aircraft with optimized economics, operational efficiency and environmentally friendly technology will become the leading force of a sustainable aviation industry.

33


GEOGRAPHIC DETAIL taking flight

34


geographic detail Bombardier Commercial Aircraft | Market Forecast 2011-2030

North America (excluding Mexico)

Continuous optimization leads to improving asset efficiency Between 2001 and 2010, over 10 carriers in North America filed for bankruptcy protection. Restructuring within bankruptcy protection became a key tool for North American carriers to reduce costs, expand scope clauses, trim capacity, and improve financial efficiency. In recent years, mergers and acquisitions have become an effective way of improving the operating environment by further adjusting capacity with less competition. As North American carriers continue to regain financial strengths, the inefficiency of their aging fleets will be the Achilles' heel of their decade long restructuring efforts. It is expected that fleet renewal is the next logical step towards further improving efficiency. Fuel efficient aircraft with great operating economics will undoubtedly be favoured in the next fleet renewal cycle.

US Carriers Total Cash and Cash Equivalent 35

30

25

US$ billion

Deliveries remain strong As a result of a large installed fleet base that requires continuous replenishment over the forecast period, deliveries in the North American remain strong.

20

15

10

5

0

Source: Bureau of Transportation Statistics, Schedule B-1

As North American carriers continue to regain financial strengths, the inefficiency of their aging fleets will be the Achilles' heel of their decade long restructuring efforts.

35


geographic detail Bombardier Commercial Aircraft | Market Forecast 2011-2030

North America (excluding Mexico) (continued) Scope clause evolution continues Regional aircraft have become an integral part of the commercial aviation route network in North America. Most US regional carriers act as contractors for larger mainline affiliates. They provide the affiliates with the flexibility to right-size equipment to meet the demand of the traffic. In addition, they are able to access airfields that are not suited to larger equipment. US regional carriers enplaned 163.5 million passengers on 4.75 million flights in 2010. Of the 673 airports in commercial service, 74% (498) of them are served only by regional airlines. According to the regional Airline Association (RAA), regional aircraft departures accounted for 48% of all departures at the top 10 US airports. They enplaned roughly 24% of passengers flown in the United States in 2010, generating 21% of domestic airline revenues, roughly the same amount as the previous year. Regional airline payment for servicing these routes is not based on the number of passengers carried, but rather on fixed fee-for-flying agreements with their mainline affiliates. Outsourcing in the form of capacity purchase agreements (CPAs) has been, and will continue to be, the main thrust behind the relationship of mainline and regional carriers.

scope clauses will continue to evolve as mainline carriers search for optimization opportunities. Scope Clauses will ease over the period of the forecast and will drive demand for an increased number of larger capacity regional aircraft.

36


geographic detail Bombardier Commercial Aircraft | Market Forecast 2011-2030

North America (excluding Mexico) (continued) Fast forward 20 years North America will represent a progressively smaller share of worldwide GDP, declining from 28% today to 25% over the forecast period. Though growth will be slower than other economies, delivery demand for 4,860 aircraft will maintain North America as the single largest aviation market. It is within North America that we expect to see the largest demand for 100- to 149-seat aircraft, with 2,130 units forecast. This demand will be fueled by the anticipated retirements of 1,000 units and strong growth opportunities.

There will be 130 deliveries of 20- to 59-seat aircraft, while retirements are expected to be strong in this segment, driven by high fuel and operating costs. The largest growth segment will be the 60- to 99-seat segment, with some 2,600 units to be delivered and only 400 retired.

Yearly Scheduled Intra-North American Airline Seats

Demand Distribution by Seat Segment North America, 2011-2030 Total: 4,860 Units

800

3%

700

Millions

600

44%

500 400 300 200 100

53%

0 2001

2002

Source: OAG Aviation Solutions

20- to 59-seat 60- to 99-seat 100- to 149-seat Source: Bombardier Commercial Market Aircraft Forecast, 2011-2030

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

37


geographic detail Bombardier Commercial Aircraft | Market Forecast 2011-2030

Europe (including Russia/CIS) Moderate fleet growth Europe is the third largest 20- to 149-seat market after North America and China. It is expected that European deliveries will account for 17% of total deliveries. Composed of a mix of developed and emerging marketplaces, the European GDP growth rate will trail the rest of the world at 2.0% per year. Also contributing to the pace of aviation growth is competition from other transportation modes, both rail and road, which are often time-competitive due to the European Unionâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s densely populated geography and airport-security delays. European air traffic has experienced disruptions recently from climatic activity, particularly the movement of volcanic ash over European airspace. At the height of the disruption, IATA estimated that it was costing the airline industry $200 million per day in lost revenues. The European Regional Airline Association reports that passenger traffic declined by 14.1% in one month alone due to the eruption of the EyjafjallajĂś volcano in 2010. Environmental sustainability has an elevated focus in the European Community, which is reflected in a committed push to include aviation in the Emissions Trading Scheme (ETS). Though the ETS will introduce new fees

Environmental sustainability has an elevated focus in the European Community, which is reflected in a committed push to include aviation in the Emissions Trading Scheme (ETS).

38


geographic detail Bombardier Commercial Aircraft | Market Forecast 2011-2030

Europe (including Russia/CIS) (continued) to passengers and airlines, it is anticipated that it will also have the affect of accelerating the retirement of old, less efficient aircraft. Continued airline network optimization activities will trigger increased turboprop usage on short routes, and regional aircraft in general, in smaller, secondary airports. The Russian aviation marketplace is not liberalized and access to the marketplace is tightly controlled, particularly for new aircraft. Over the past several years, the Russian Federation has had a national objective of re-establishing its civilian aerospace industry,

which has been stagnant since the breakup of the former Soviet Union. One of the showcase products for this effort is the design and construction of a domestic regional jet with 78 to 98 seats. This aircraft has been under development by Russian state-owned or state-controlled entities since 2001, and has recently been certified by the Interstate Aviation Committee (MAK), the airworthiness authority for Russia and the Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS). GDP growth rates for Russia and CIS are forecast at 4.5%. We anticipate demand for

20- to 149-seat aircraft in Russia/CIS will be 460 units, one-fifth of the total demand for all deliveries in Europe. More than 50% of the European deliveries are anticipated to be 100- to 149-seat aircraft over the forecast period. Within the regional segments, deliveries of 60- to 99-seat aircraft will dominate, with a small component of 20- to 59-seat deliveries adding to the total. The shift to larger capacity aircraft in the regional markets is evident in the distribution of demand over the 20-year period.

Yearly Scheduled Intra-European Airline Seats

Demand Distribution by Seat Segment Europe (incl. Russia/CIS), 2011-2030 Total: 2,250 Units

500 3% Millions

400 300 200 100 42% 0

55%

2001

2002

Source: OAG Aviation Solutions

20- to 59-seat 60- to 99-seat 100- to 149-seat Source: Bombardier Commercial Market Aircraft Forecast, 2011-2030

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

39


geographic detail Bombardier Commercial Aircraft | Market Forecast 2011-2030

Asia/Pacific (excluding China (PRC)) Moderate fleet growth Asia/Pacific, excluding China (PRC), has a moderate fleet growth in the 20- to 149-seat segment over the next 20 years. It takes delivery of 1,700 units and retires 770 aircraft. The fleet grows from 1,190 units in 2010 to 2,120 in 2030, an increase of 78%.

Sub-region of Asia/Pacific

A diversified and resilient region Within Asia/Pacific, South and Southeast Asia recovered from the recent economic downturn at a much faster pace than Northeast Asia and Oceania. This is mainly driven by the inherent domestic demand of these high growth regions. Coupled with this region's diversified culture, government policies and geography, the need for air transport is fundamental. The resilience of this region is impressive, having rebounded quickly from downturns brought on by the Asian financial crisis in 1997, SARS pandemic in 2003, Indian Ocean tsunami in 2004, and the 2008 oil price spike and global economic slowdown. The emergence of India as a new global power will begin to transform the economic landscape worldwide. With a forecast GDP growth rate of 8.5% in 2011, India is second

Northeast Asia South Asia Southest Asia Oceania

Within Asia/Pacific, South and Southeast Asia recovered from the recent economic downturn at a much faster pace than Northeast Asia and Oceania.

40


geographic detail Bombardier Commercial Aircraft | Market Forecast 2011-2030

Asia/Pacific (excluding China (PRC)) (continued) in growth only to China (at 10.3%). As a large land mass with a large population, domestic air travel is increasing proportionately with the development of the middle-class community. Domestic consumption and demand is a key differentiator from Chinaâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s export-focused economy. IHS Global Insight states that Indian infrastructure output in late 2010 has picked up steadily, in tandem with many other indicators of healthy manufacturing activity. Nevertheless, India's manufacturing sector as a whole remains fairly robust despite global headwinds and higher interest

rates. IHS remarks that these infrastructure data are considered an advance indicator of growth in industrial output, which in turn will lead to infrastructure development, including aviation. The government plans to invest about $500 million in infrastructure over the next two years, in transportation, power, telecommunications, roads and oil pipelines. The government is also seeking to increase its outlay on infrastructure to $1 trillion over the five-year period 2012â&#x20AC;&#x201C;17. As a result, investment is expected to remain robust, particularly infrastructure investment.

Demand Distribution by Seat Segment Asia/Pacific (ex. China), 2011-2030

Japan is only just beginning to rebuild the country and its economy following the aftermath of the Fukushima environmental crisis. However, in the long term, the growth of Northeast Asia is expected to be strong in terms of a substantial domestic demand, but weak with international trade. In general, history indicates that the entire region is very resilient.

Yearly Scheduled Intra-Asia/Pacific Airline Seats (ex. China)

Total: 1,700 Units

2%

200

Millions

150

57%

41%

100 50 0 2001

2002

Source: OAG Aviation Solutions

20- to 59-seat 60- to 99-seat 100- to 149-seat Source: Bombardier Commercial Market Aircraft Forecast, 2011-2030

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

41


geographic detail Bombardier Commercial Aircraft | Market Forecast 2011-2030

Asia/Pacific (excluding China (PRC)) (continued) The evolution of the growth markets As network connectivity between major city centres is well entrenched and very effective, a shift in attention towards secondary and tertiary cities is the logical next step of development. Loosening of intra-regional aviation regulation is a prerequisite for such development and is evolving. This will eventually lead to a similar demand for small to medium size aircraft as experienced previously in the US and Europe. Aircraft in the 60-to 149-seat category are anticipated to meet this growing traffic demand. Fleet replenishment continues in the mature markets Mature markets within Asia/Pacific continue to look for optimization opportunities. In a highly environmentally regulated market, aircraft with the highest standard in fuel economy and lowest noise and emission characteristics are in a favourable position to take advantage of the market need. There is already an installed base of turboprop and regional jet aircraft in these markets. Continued replenishment or growth into more efficient 100- to 149-seat segment is a natural evolution.

42


geographic detail Bombardier Commercial Aircraft | Market Forecast 2011-2030

China (PRC) Fleet growth is phenomenal China is a market that requires all types of aircraft in volume to meet its economic growth over the next 20 years. The overall fleet from 20- to 149-seats is forecast to grow 300% over the next 20 years.

Existing and Forecast Airports in China

A robust commercial aviation system is key To meet the demands of its dynamic economic growth, China requires a very robust commercial aviation system. This includes not only a continuous replenishment of new fleets, but also infrastructure such as new airports, air traffic management systems, the availability of pilots and technicians, and most importantly, government policy to support this phenomenal growth. In the governmentâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s most recent five-year plan, large-scale new airport development is mapped out to 2020. The objective is to have 82% of the population within 100 km or 1.5 hours reach of air services, covering 96% of the nationâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s GDP. It is very clear that a portion of these new airports is to alleviate air traffic congestion in the densely populated regions.

Persons per square kilometer 0

1

10

100

700

0

25

26

250

520

2006 Airport location 2006-2010 Expansion

Persons per square mile

Source: Bombardier Analysis

2011-2020 Expansion

43


geographic detail Bombardier Commercial Aircraft | Market Forecast 2011-2030

China (PRC) (continued) The remaining airports will develop links to remote areas. This airport growth demand highlights Chinaâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s need for small to medium size aircraft. As a result, China has developed its own turboprop, regional jet and large single-aisle jet aircraft programs. High speed rail complements commercial aviation Mr. Li Jia Xiang, Minister of General Administration of Civil Aviation of China, in the outlook of the 12th five-year plan, stated that the development of high speed rail is a key strategy to alleviate the congestion in aviation hubs such as Beijing, Shanghai and Guangzhou. This strategy also helps the administration focus on areas where air transport has clear advantages over high speed rail, such as China's sparsely populated western regions.

...the development of high speed rail is a key strategy to alleviate the congestion in aviation hubs...

44


geographic detail Bombardier Commercial Aircraft | Market Forecast 2011-2030

China (PRC) (continued) Regional aircraft play a key role in feeding traffic to big city hubs and meeting Chinaâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s present and forecast needs. Bombardier predicts a demand for almost 2,400 aircraft in the 60- to 149-seat segment over the forecast period, to fulfill the growing need for increased distribution of wealth throughout the country.

Starting from a small base, regional aircraft deliveries will reach 2,540 units. Starting from a small base, deliveries in the regional aircraft range will reach 870 units with fewer than 150 retirements. The strongest growth will be in the 100- to 149-seat segment, with 1,440 units.

Demand Distribution by Seat Segment China (PRC), 2011-2030

Yearly Scheduled Intra-China (PRC) Airline Seats

Total: 2,310 Units

140

< 1%

120 Millions

100

37%

80 60 40 20 0

62%

2001

2002

Source: OAG Aviation Solutions

20- to 59-seat 60- to 99-seat 100- to 149-seat Source: Bombardier Commercial Market Aircraft Forecast, 2011-2030

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

45


geographic detail Bombardier Commercial Aircraft | Market Forecast 2011-2030

Latin America (including Caribbean and Mexico) Deliveries remain strong Latin America currently accounts for 6% of world GDP and carries about 6% of world passenger traffic. This contrasts with the presence of 11% of the world's airlines in the region. Fierce competition leads to consolidation in the industry. The bankruptcy of Mexicana and the merger of LAN and TAM are the highlights of the industry in 2010. Latin America, beset in the past by debt defaults, currency devaluations and the need for bailouts from other countries, is experiencing robust economic growth. According to IATA, Latin America is the only region to have delivered a profit in both 2009 and 2010.

Market Capitalization (US$ Billion) $14.0 $11.2 $10.4 $8.8

AM NT

LA

up

lta De

a

s an

fth

Lu

o Gr

ed

ine nt

Co

nit l/U

a nt

rF

Ai

Source: Bombardier Analysis, various company websites

$5.7

$5.5

LM

ria

/K

n ra

ce

e

/Ib

BA

Latin America, beset in the past by debt defaults, currency devaluations and the need for bailouts from other countries, is experiencing robust economic growth.

46


geographic detail Bombardier Commercial Aircraft | Market Forecast 2011-2030

Latin America (including Caribbean and Mexico) (continued) The Latin American and Caribbean Air Transport Association (ALTA) announced that its member airlines carried 136.4 million passengers in 2010, up 11.3% from the previous year. The load factor climbed to 73.3%, 3.2 percentage points higher than in 2009. The combined market capitalization of LAN and TAM is about $14 billion, higher than most leading airline groups. It is a promising indication that Latin America is gaining more influence on the global air transport issues, such as the environment and liberalization.

Secondary aviation infrastructure demand is growing Brazil, which led the regional recovery from the 2009 downturn, will host the upcoming 2014 FIFA World Cup and 2016 Summer Olympics. Regional economies will undoubtedly be stimulated by these major events, and it is anticipated that it will spur much needed infrastructure development to support its long-term growth in air transport. The development and increase of low-fare carriers in the region allows much wider population access to affordable air travel.

Demand Distribution by Seat Segment Latin America, 2011-2030

Some low-fare carriers have just begun to utilize smaller regional jet and turboprop aircraft to reach further into secondary or tertiary markets. Increased use of smaller regional aircraft will provide affordable service to smaller markets in the regions Starting from a base of just under 1,000 aircraft, there will be 1,000 units delivered within the 100- to 149-seat market, and 640 of the existing fleet will be retired. More than 60% of deliveries will be in the 100- to 149seat segment.

Yearly Scheduled Intra-Latin America Airline Seats

Total: 1,000 Units

160

3%

140

Millions

120

35%

100 80 60 40 20

62%

0 2001

2002

Source: OAG Aviation Solutions

20- to 59-seat 60- to 99-seat 100- to 149-seat Source: Bombardier Commercial Market Aircraft Forecast, 2011-2030

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geographic detail Bombardier Commercial Aircraft | Market Forecast 2011-2030

Africa and the Middle East Moderate growth Economic prospects for the Middle East and Africa are promising, showing strong signs of GDP growth, with 4.5% for Africa and 5.2% for the Middle East over the forecast period. Both regions face challenges, which have led to a slower pace of growth of regional and 100- to 149-seat aircraft markets. These challenges include political uncertainty, lagging infrastructure development and slow aviation deregulation. There are signs that these challenges are being addressed and that their impact will begin within the period of this forecast. Currently, the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) are experiencing economic downturns due to the social and political upheaval. Egypt, Libya and Tunisia are particularly experiencing slumps in their tourism trade, and hence air traffic, as well as a slowdown in normal business activity. The International Monetary Fund has trimmed its 2011 GDP forecast for MENA by 50 basis points from the beginning of the year (from 4.6% to 4.1%). In Africa, with its multitude of countries, many of which are mired in poverty or warfare, air transportation infrastructure development is focused primarily on a few international hubs

There are signs of economic change, which should begin to filter down to the heavily regulated aviation industry near or just beyond the end of the forecast period. rather than secondary and tertiary airports. Other forms of infrastructure, such as sophisticated telecommunications networks, also vary significantly between regions. There are signs of economic change, which should begin to

filter down to the heavily regulated aviation industry near or just beyond the end of the forecast period. One such sign is the amount of external investment in the country by India and China.

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geographic detail Bombardier Commercial Aircraft | Market Forecast 2011-2030

Africa and the Middle East (continued) Great economic promise IHS Global Insight analysis indicates that Indian trade with Africa has increased substantially over the decade, with Indian imports from Africa growing from $18.7 billion to $20.7 billion last year. Additionally, India has extended $5 billion in credit over three years to Africa in order to support economic growth. Similarly, China has steadily contributed to Africaâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s resource development and transportation infrastructure. Since 2006, China has invested in $4.5-5 billion per year in sub-Saharan Africa.

Transformational geographic location The Middle East continues to offer the potential to play a key role in the transformation of the aviation industry. Sitting between the emerging economic markets of India and China, Middle East carriers have consistently reported increased annual enplanements and revenues. The Arab Air Carriers Association (ACCO) most current data, 2009, reports a 9.4% year-over-year increase in international passengers. In some countries within MENA, air traffic continues its strong growth: Saudi Arabia, for example, enplaned 4.5 million

Demand Distribution by Seat Segment Africa and the Middle East, 2011-2030

Yearly Scheduled Intra-Africa and Intra-Middle East Airline Seats

Total: 980 Units

20- to 149-seat Aircraft In Africa and The Middle East

passengers in the first quarter of 2011, compared to 4.1 million in the same quarter of 2010. While starting from a small base, Africa and Middle East deliveries will capture 7%, or 980, of the total 13,100 20- to 149-seat deliveries worldwide.

80

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resources Bombardier Commercial Aircraft | Market Forecast 2011-2030

Resources used in the Bombardier Aerospace, Commercial Aircraft Market Forecast ACCO – Arab Air Carriers Organization AAPA – Association of Asia-Pacific Airlines ACAS – AirCraft Analytic System database AIA – Aerospace Industries Association of America Airline Monitor ATA – Air Transport Association ATAG – Air Transport Action Group Aviation Daily Bank of America Merrill Lynch Industry Overview Report BTS – US Bureau of Transportation Statistics CAAC – Civil Aviation Administration of China DOT – US Department of Transportation EIA – US Energy Information Administration ERAA – European Regional Airline Association IATA – International Air Transport Association ICAO – International Civil Aviation Organisation IHS Global Insight IPCC Report on Aviation and Climate Change OAG – BACK Aviation RAA – Regional Airline Association www.enviro.aero

For electronic copies of the Bombardier Aerospace Commercial Aircraft Market Forecast, 2011-2030, please visit our website at: www.bombardier.com

forward looking statement This presentation includes forward-looking statements. Forwardlooking statements generally can be identified by the use of forward-looking terminology such as “may”, “will”, “expect”, “intend”, “anticipate”, “plan”, “foresee”, “believe” or “continue”, the negative of these terms, variations of them or similar terminology. By their nature, forward-looking statements require us to make assumptions a n d a re s u b j e c t t o i m p o r t a n t k n o w n a n d u n k n o w n r i s k s a n d uncertainties, which may cause our actual results in future periods to differ materially from forecasted results. While we consider our assumptions to be reasonable and appropriate based on information currently available, there is a risk that they may not be accurate. For additional information with respect to the assumptions underlying the forward-looking statements made in this presentation, refer to the respective Forward-looking statements sections in BA and BT in the MD&A of the Corporation’s annual report for fiscal year 2011. Certain factors that could cause actual results to differ materially from those anticipated in the forward-looking statements include risks associated with general economic conditions, risks associated with our business environment (such as risks associated with the airline industry’s financial condition), operational risks (such as risks involved in developing new products and services, risks in doing business with partners, risks relating to product performance warranty and casualty claim losses, to regulatory and legal proceedings, to environmental and health and safety, to our dependence on certain customers and suppliers, to human resources, to fixed-price commitments and to production and project execution), financing risks (such as risks relating to liquidity and access to capital markets, to the terms of certain restrictive debt covenants, to financing support provided on behalf of certain customers and to reliance on government support) and market risks (such as risks relating to foreign currency fluctuations, to changing interest rates and commodity prices risks). For more details, see the Risks and uncertainties section in Other in the MD&A of the Corporation’s annual report for fiscal year 2011. Readers are cautioned that the foregoing list of factors that may affect future growth, results and performance is not exhaustive and undue reliance should not be placed on forward-looking statements. The forward-looking statements set forth herein reflect our expectations as at the date of this presentation and are subject to change after such date. Unless otherwise required by applicable securities laws, the Corporation expressly disclaims any intention, and assumes no obligation to update or revise any forward-looking statements, whether as a result of new information, future events or otherwise. All monetary amounts are expressed in 2011 US dollars, unless otherwise stated.

Registered trademark(s) or trademark(s) of Bombardier Inc. or its subsidiaries. © 2011 Bombardier Inc. All rights reserved. Printed in Canada. 06/2011

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Bombardier Commercial Aircraft Market Forecast 2011-2030