2023 Market Review

2023

Market Review

AlpineLegacy.com 517 Big Thompson Ave #301 Estes Park, CO 80517

Table of Contents 3

All About the Market

5

Interest Rates & Inventory

8

Forget What You Think You Know

12

Estes Park Market Summary Overview

14

Single Family Homes

18

Condominiums

22

Predictions from 2023

25

Predictions for 2024

28

Advice for Buyers

30

Advice for Sellers

33

Awards and Accomplishments in 2023

34

New Chapters in the Office

35

Thank You!

All About the Market In 2023, real estate agents went from being “order takers” in a fast-paced market to being relied on as a strategist, trusted advisor, psychic and expert negotiator once again.

What’s Been Happening We are no longer in a real estate market that requires buyers and sellers to sprint to a decision about real estate. Starting in 2022 and continuing in 2023, real estate agents went from being “order takers” in a fast-paced market to being relied on as a strategist, trusted advisor, psychic and expert negotiator once again. For those of you who have been reading our content for a while, you know that this is right up our alley at the Alpine Legacy Team! Our tag line since 2011 has been “Helping People Make Wise Real Estate Decisions” and we were thrilled to see that our expertise in getting transactions accomplished with our client’s best interests at heart became more valuable once again in 2023.

3

Even with one of the toughest real estate markets for real estate agents in 2023, we are proud of the fact that the Alpine Legacy Team sold more homes and condominiums in 2023 than we did in 2022. As the rest of the market languished behind previous years because of high interest rates, negative press, and an uncertain economy, we helped more families, found more opportunities, and helped people keep more money in their pocket because we focused on Helping People Make Wise Real Estate Decisions.

The Alpine Legacy Team increased our # of sales while the rest of the market was down more than 10% 15.0% 10.0% 5.0% 0.0% -5.0% -10.0% -15.0% Larimer County

Estes Park

Alpine Legacy

Overall, 2023 has been an incredibly rewarding experience for us at Alpine Legacy. We've had the opportunity to represent a wide range of properties, help people from all walks of life, and make many new friends in the process. We are grateful for the trust our clients have placed in us and for the opportunity to serve them. We are eager to continue our mission in 2024 to help people make wise real estate decisions.

My goal in this report is to interpret how the local real estate economy is moving and changing.

I’ll share with you what types of properties are selling, where the trends are pointing, and how you can use this information to your advantage. I’ll even give you a few predictions regarding what will happen in the future in our real estate market.

4

Interest Rates & Inventory The two biggest stories of 2023 revolve around mortgage interest rates and available inventory for sale.

More specifically, the fast-rising interest rates stalled out buyers from purchasing in the last half of 2023. In addition, sellers have been reluctant to give up their mortgage rates under 4% on their existing properties.

These two conflicting situations have drastically changed our market from a frenetic pace over the last few years to one that is far less urgent.

When you understand that 65.2% of homeowners have a mortgage rate of 4.0% or less, it is no wonder they don't want to consider making any moves.

Average Mortgage Rate Is Less Than 4%

Current FHFA Loans with Mortgage Rate at the Time of Origination 5

The natural reaction to inflation in the economy is for mortgage interest rates to lower over time, so that is what we are expecting and just starting to see as 2024 begins.

How fast those rates come back down will be anyone's guess. It would be prudent to watch how interest rates impact your buying power. It is a good idea to keep a target interest rate in mind to make sure you don't wait too long.

While you are waiting for rates to come down, it is also important to keep in mind that we still expect prices to continue to rise in the long term. Even while prices have been flat lately, the overall trend is still predicted to rise because of our low inventory....especially among properties in top condition.

Since the summer of 2022, supply and demand have undergone significant changes. Rising interest rates, driven by high inflation, have reduced demand for housing. This decrease in demand would typically lead to lower prices. However, this scenario assumes that supply (inventory) remains constant, which has not been the case. Inventory nationwide has increased but not as much as we would have expected (see graph below. The low rates homeowners are locked into with their financing are one of the biggest reasons why we haven’t seen more properties become available for sale.

Inventory of Properties for Sale in Estes Park, Colorado 250 200 150 100 50

Single Family 6

Condos

Oct-23

May-23

Dec-22

Jul-22

Feb-22

Apr-21

Sep-21

Jun-20

Nov-20

Jan-20

Aug-19

Oct-18

Mar-19

May-18

Jul-17

Dec-17

Feb-17

Sep-16

Apr-16

Nov-15

Jun-15

Jan-15

Mar-14

Aug-14

Oct-13

Dec-12

May-13

Jul-12

Feb-12

Apr-11

Sep-11

Jun-10

Nov-10

Jan-10

0

The general consensus from all of the financial advisors and mortgage experts is that mortgage rates will go down in the future as we break through this inflationary environment. My expectation is that lower rates will cause higher demand for real estate. If that is the case, prices will continue to rise. There is no telling exactly how long we will be in this current lull as interest rates continue to fluctuate. But the opportunity people are holding out for might disappear behind a more expensive house in the future.

In addition, there is a huge portion of the population that also has a lot of equity in their homes and that extra equity gives people lots of options to buy a second home, an investment property, or a new primary home while they rent out the old one. Specifically, by utilizing a home equity loan or a home equity line of credit, a person can keep their original low-interest loan AND make use of the equity in their home towards new real estate goals.

It is our goal at Alpine Legacy to help you make wise real estate decisions and the best decisions blend the mix between your head and your heart, emotion and logic, or art and science. If you take action on one side of the equation, you may end up with regret. We sincerely enjoy helping people through the process of buying and selling real estate, and our market right now still has opportunities for both buyers wanting their home in the mountains as well as sellers deciding when to sell.

7

Forget What You Think You Know It is no secret a lot has changed in the real estate industry over the last couple years. Interest rates skyrocketing and then retreating from their highs are having a significant impact on the market, but more importantly are affecting the decisions of millions of Americans and their decisions around real estate. It is time for buyers to adjust their strategies and we are excited to help people through the process. Instead of dwelling on what you could afford in the past, it's time to reassess your options in the present and plan for the future.

1. Forget What You Think You Know We are encouraging buyers to let go of what they used to be able to afford and focus on what the numbers show now. Take a proactive approach by consulting with a mortgage broker to determine your current budget for both monthly payments and your down payment. The hardest part is keeping your eyes only on the houses that align with your new financial capacity, even if it means compromising on size, features, or benefits that you “used to” be able to afford.

Remember, being in the real estate market with a smaller, affordable house within your budget will put you farther ahead than waiting for something that has everything you hoped for yet is beyond your budget.

2. Don't Let Interest Rates Hold You Back While the numbers may shift, the timeless benefits of real estate still stay the same. Primary homes and secondary homes continue to offer huge advantages in wealth building, and though you might need to consider some compromises, the long-term benefits remain. Concerns about the higher interest rates may lead you to pause, but it's crucial to consider the bigger picture.

Even if interest rates fluctuate, the potential for property appreciation often outpaces the increased cost of higher payments. Compromising on the house you buy now can lead to significant gains in the future.

8

3. How Does Inflation Come In To Play?

In an inflationary environment, real estate is the best way to get ahead. Historical trends show that real estate and large assets tend to appreciate greatly in high inflation periods. Simply look at how much real estate has appreciated in the last few years! Even as inflation changes the value of the dollar, real estate values have historically increased even more.

4. Leverage: Your Gateway To Wealth Creation Leverage is another key part of this equation – obtaining a loan from a bank can significantly amplify your gains compared to an all-cash purchase. If you can secure a loan, the appreciation of the property can lead to exponential gains. Let me show you what I mean…

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For example: When you buy a $1,000,000 property and put 20% down, you write a check for $200,000 and obtain a mortgage for the rest. When the market value of the real estate increases by 10%, your real estate is now worth $1,100,000 while you only put in $200,000 of cash at the start. Therefore, if you sold that real estate, your net proceeds are $300,000. When you subtract your original down payment, you have a gain of $100,000 from your $200,000 investment. That is a return of 50% on your cash invested. If you compare that to purchasing a $1,000,000 home in cash and the property value increases 10%, your return on cash invested also 10%. Of course, there are other expenses and carrying costs in the equation, but I would much rather be making a 50% return on the cash I invest!

Leverage

For those who are skeptical of “leverage” or taking on debt, the most common objection is that leverage is just as dangerous when values fall. The response to this objection becomes an issue of how much time you have. Real estate has consistently proven to be a solid investment over the long haul (and I’m definitely not just talking about the last few years). In any economic environment, downturns are temporary, and real estate tends to rebound the longer the time involved. Stability and long-term appreciation make real estate a reliable choice in uncertain times even if values fall in the short term.

In summary, adapting to the current real estate market is essential. Whether facing difficult or prosperous economies, high or low inflation, or high mortgage interest rates, resetting expectations and making strategic compromises can position buyers for success in the long run. Waiting for the market to return to previous conditions may simply cause you to lose out.

Our advice is to embrace the current market, including the higher interest rates, and secure your real estate future with all the wealth-building benefits real estate has to offer.

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Love People – There are no exclusions in that statement. We will give equal treatment to all.

- Alpine Legacy Core Value

11

Estes Park Market Summary Overview The slowdown in the real estate market has shown up in the real estate statistics in 2023 in Estes Park. There are a lot of reasons for pessimism, but there are equally as many reasons to still be optimistic about our market here in the mountains. Let’s dig into the details and I'll show you what I mean.

Starting Off First of all, the market as a whole saw significantly fewer real estate sales in 2023 than 2022 with a drop of approximately 12% in the total number of sales. Going back in the history, we haven’t had so few sales since 2012. With fewer sales, we are fortunate that inventory of homes for sale did not skyrocket during that time. Therefore our prices did not respond to the dramatic drop in the number of sales but actually rose by 3% because nobody wanted to sell their properties.

Separating out the single family homes from the condos, single family fell in median values by a small amount, but condominiums surged ahead even with the significant drop in number of sales.

2022

Number of Sales 2023 % Change

2022

Median Sale 2023 % Change

2022

Average Sale 2023 % Change

All Residential

309

271

-12.3%

$650,000

$670,000

3.1%

$757,964

$755,649

-0.3%

Single Family

184

160

-13.0%

$831,000

$808,750

-2.7%

$928,146

$901,733

-2.8%

Condominiums

125

111

-11.2%

$460,000

$538,000

17.0%

$507,457

$545,079

7.4%

Vacant Land

17

15

-11.8%

$315,000

$235,000

-25.4%

$602,941

$528,666

-12.3%

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As I have been predicting for years, as the number of sales has declined, values have stayed relatively constant but the average time on the market has increased. The power of the 2 nd home market is at play here where people who own these second homes have much more financial capability to withstand a slower market and therefore would rather wait for their home to sell at their price than reduce the price to sell quickly. The other interesting number is that the price per square foot was up consistently at about 5% in both Single family and condominiums.

2022

Dollar Volume 2023

% Change

All Residential

$ 234,211,109

$ 204,781,075

-12.6%

$410.88

$431.45

5.0%

57

62

8.8%

Single Family

$ 170,778,889

$ 144,277,303

-15.5%

$400.21

$419.60

4.8%

59

61

3.4%

Condominiums

$ 63,432,220

$ 60,503,772

-4.6%

$426.58

$448.54

5.1%

56

63

12.5%

Vacant Land

$ 10,250,000

$

-22.6%

x

x

x

229

91

-60.3%

7,930,000

Price per square foot 2022 2023 % Change

Days on the Market* 2022 2023 % Change

*Days on the Market typically includes the “under contract” period between initial contract and closing date.

Effective days on the market before an offer is accepted is typically 30-60 days less than this figure in all categories.

As the cost of construction skyrocketed after 2020, the number of vacant land sales dwindled as well. It has always been more cost effective to buy an existing home and remodel it rather than start from scratch. That being said, the number of sales in the vacant land category is bordering on being statistically insignificant. When we have just a few sales that are outside the norm, it can greatly skew the resulting statistics. You can see this play out by looking at the median sale and the average sale for vacant land being drastically different.

13

Single Family Homes We had a huge increase in smaller homes being sold this last year as designated by the bedroom and the square footage categories. We saw a large increase in number of sales as well as the total dollar amount closed in 2023 in both of these categories. While it would be natural to think the large decrease in the number of sales would naturally lead to lower median and average prices, that wasn’t necessarily the case. In fact, there were just as many categories that increased in value as those that fell.

Number of Sales 2022 2023 % Change

2022

Median Sale 2023

% Change

2022

Average Sale 2023

% Change

Under 1499 sq ft 1500-2999 sq ft Over 3000 sq ft

33 104 47

46 72 42

39.4% -30.8% -10.6%

$549,000 $820,000 $1,200,000

$545,000 $826,500 $1,219,500

-0.7% 0.8% 1.6%

$540,669 $834,881 $1,406,576

$551,327 $876,903 $1,328,076

2.0% 5.0% -5.6%

1-2 Bedrooms 3 Bedrooms 4+ Bedrooms

30 93 61

34 71 54

13.3% -23.7% -11.5%

$544,500 $825,000 $965,000

$555,000 $785,000 $1,060,000

1.9% -4.8% 9.8%

$581,236 $907,889 $1,129,640

$573,369 $846,194 $1,191,721

-1.4% -6.8% 5.5%

Under $599,999 $600,000 to $899,999 Over $900,000

40 71 73

33 65 62

-17.5% -8.5% -15.1%

$537,500 $784,000 $1,115,000

$510,000 $743,000 $1,180,750

-5.1% -5.2% 5.9%

$503,552 $758,425 $1,325,871

$492,259 $735,873 $1,293,564

-2.2% -3.0% -2.4%

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Looking further at the stats for smaller vs larger homes, you can see the dollar volume of closed transactions only increased in the smallest categories. The overall cost per square foot increased significantly in the smaller homes but not in the larger ones. In addition, our time on the market is increasing in most categories as expected since the previous few years has been ridiculously and unsustainably low. The stat I didn’t expect to see was the speed at which the larger homes over 3000 square feet and containing 4 bedrooms continue to be selling.

Dollar Volume

Price per square foot % 2022 2023 Change

Time on the Market % 2022 2023 Change

2022

2023

% Change

Under 1499 sq ft

$17,842,100

$25,361,053

42.1%

$535.95

$549.95

2.6%

50

57

14.0%

1500-2999 sq ft

$86,827,700

$63,137,025

-27.3%

$373.16

$397.21

6.4%

58

63

8.6%

Over 3000 sq ft

$66,109,089

$55,779,225

-15.6%

$364.77

$315.20

-13.6%

66

62

-6.1%

1-2 Bedrooms

$17,437,100

$19,494,553

11.8%

$536.36

$578.48

7.9%

43

54

25.6%

3 Bedrooms

$84,433,700

$60,079,775

-28.8%

$383.39

$398.34

3.9%

61

63

3.3%

4+ Bedrooms

$68,908,089

$64,352,975

-6.6%

$358.91

$348.19

-3.0%

62

62

0.0%

Under $599,999

$20,142,100

$16,244,553

-19.4%

$420.22

$524.50

24.8%

64

55

-14.1%

$600,000 to $899,999

$53,848,200

$47,831,775

-11.2%

$360.46

$395.61

9.8%

56

67

19.6%

Over $900,000

$96,788,589

$80,200,975

-17.1%

$427.91

$386.71

-9.6%

58

62

6.9%

*Days on the Market typically includes the “under contract” period between initial contract and closing date. Effective days on the market before an offer is accepted is typically 30-60 days less than this figure in all categories.

In a nutshell, I am very pleased with the numbers I am seeing for single family homes in all of the above categories. It essentially follows the narrative I have been expecting for the last 1218 months. As the market has quieted down, our time on the market has increased, but our average and median prices have not fallen as severely as the headlines would lead us to believe!

15

So Which Homes are Selling?

The fascinating part of this graph is that in many categories, we are seeing almost equal or the same number of single family homes sold in 2023 as we did in 2022 EXCEPT in the $500,000 to $600,000 range and the $800,000 to $1m range. In addition, future editions of this graph will need to break down the $1m to $2m price range to show more details there. While it is exciting to see the number of sales reaching the 7 figure price point, there are more details to be gleaned by more specific data.

The other fascinating part of this graph is seeing the red active inventory creeping up where inventory was practically non-existent over the last few years. Essentially, buyers who come into town now have a few properties to choose from instead of waiting for that one perfect option to come available on the market. This will help reduce stress levels for buyers and increase confidence in what they are purchasing.

16

When Do Most of the Homes Sell in Estes Park?

When Is The Best Time To Sell? (Single Family Homes)

It is a common misperception to believe that our Estes Park market is completely seasonal.

Yes, there is far more traffic and more people in town during the summer and fall months in Estes Park. However, if you look at the last two years of data for single family homes, you are just as likely to sell in March as you would in July in both 2022 and 2023. Excluding the dips in both February and April, this graph shows that if you have a home to sell, there are buyers looking for real estate in Estes Park all year long. Likewise, as buyers, there is no reason to shut off your email property alerts in the “off-season” because there might just be the perfect home that comes available.

17

Condominiums Similar to Single Family homes, the number of sales of condominiums was a significant part of the story when comparing 2023 to 2022 with fewer sales in every category of condominiums sold. However, what was not expected was the increases in median and average sales of condos in almost all categories.

One of the biggest impacts on the statistics for Condominiums in Estes Park was the completion and sale of a large number of condominiums at the Wildfire development on the north end of Estes Park. While these numbers did skew higher because of this, the demand was still strong enough to close sales even with the higher interest rates and slower market.

Because the nature of this Wildfire project was to keep the cost lower for workforce housing, you’ll see some of the data for newer homes trending lower for the sale prices.

Number of Sales % 2022 2023 Change

Median Sale

Average Sale

2022

2023

% Change

2022

2023

% Change

Under 1399 sq ft Over 1400 sq ft

77 48

66 45

-14.29% -6.25%

$386,000 $645,000

$425,000 $685,000

10.10% 6.20%

$399,453 $680,714

$444,988 $691,877

11.40% 1.64%

1-2 Bedrooms 3+ Bedrooms

78 47

69 42

-11.54% -10.64%

$388,000 $629,000

$428,500 $690,000

10.44% 9.70%

$413,703 $663,049

$456,910 $689,926

10.44% 4.05%

Built before yr 1999 Built after yr 2000

74 51

63 49

-14.86% -3.92%

$437,750 $555,000

$540,000 $525,000

23.36% -5.41%

$461,899 $573,561

$534,578 $569,905

15.73% -0.64%

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What is great to see is that the price per square foot for all categories has gone up in the last year compared to the year prior. In addition, the time on the market tells a unique story as well.

The larger, older condominiums struggled significantly to find a buyer compared to the smaller, newer condos. The contrast is extremely significant in the changes we saw between the two categories and styles of condominiums. Again, the Wildfire development played a significant part of these statistics, but it is worth noting that the demand is solid and consistent for condominiums in Estes Park even in a more difficult real estate environment.

Dollar Volume

Price per square foot 2023

% Change

Time on the Market % 2022 2023 Change

2022

2023

% Change

Under 1399 sq ft Over 1400 sq ft

$30,757,920 $32,674,300

$29,369,272 $31,134,500

-4.51% -4.71%

$458.25 $375.77

$496.14 $378.72

8.27% 0.79%

67 38

58 72

-13.4% 89.5%

1-2 Bedrooms 3+ Bedrooms

$32,268,877 $31,163,343

$31,526,847 $28,976,925

-2.30% -7.02%

$453.78 $381.44

$485.14 $388.41

6.91% 1.83%

63 43

62 65

-1.6% 51.2%

Built before yr 1999 Built after yr 2000

$34,180,577 $29,251,643

$33,678,425 $27,925,347

-1.47% -4.53%

$422.35 $432.52

$438.67 $461.02

3.86% 6.59%

40 78

73 52

82.5% -33.3%

2022

*Days on the Market typically includes the “under contract” period between initial contract and closing date. Effective days on the market before an offer is accepted is typically 30-60 days less than this figure in all categories.

I am looking forward to seeing how the numbers play out in 2024 to see how the Wildfire condos impact the overall statistics in the marketplace. However, even without the Wildfire units, values and demand are staying strong enough for me to believe that 2024 will be a good year for all categories of condominiums in Estes Park.

19

So Which Condos Are Selling?

The shift to a higher price is clearly evident in this graph of condominiums sold in 2022 and 2023 in each price range. The noticeable difference in the $300-$399k category made a big impact on the total median price of the entire market. In addition, we saw significantly more sales in the condos sold over $500,000 which also helps our appreciation and median sales numbers.

When Do Most Of The Condos Sell In Estes Park?

When Is The Best Time To Sell? (Condominiums)

Comparing which months carried the most sales in 2022 vs 2023 shows two very different years. For 2022, the first half of the year saw much more activity than the second half. In contrast, 2023 saw the majority of its activity happen in the last half of the year.

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Run towards Hard – We will do the hard work, solve complicated problems, and have difficult conversations to accomplish our mission.

- Alpine Legacy Core Value

21

Predictions From 2023 One of the most popular sections of my end of the year report from last year was my predictions for the New Year. Are you curious to see how I did? Here are the predictions that I made in January of last year followed by notes from this year in blue.

1. Interest Rates Will Continue to Fall Interest rates will continue to fall from their current rates around 6%, but I don’t expect them to fall back into the 3% range or as low as we've seen the last 4-5 years.

Everyone was predicting with hope that interest rates would reverse course and fall, but they continued to rise throughout the year before finally cresting at the end of the year and ending in the high 6% rates. Unfortunately, that means I missed on this prediction….but so did a ton of other real estate professionals!

2. I Expect Prices to Continue to Rise but at a Much Slower Pace The market will be a steady seller’s market, meaning I expect prices to continue to rise, but at a much slower pace. See my advice for sellers elsewhere in this report to understand more fully, but the days of multiple offers are all but over. If priced well, there is still very good demand from buyers that will keep prices continuing to rise.

Continuing to rise might be an overstatement. Our market stayed relatively even throughout the year. Looking at the stats above results in the assumption that property values have held steady and should continue to stay steady and increasing even if we see some short term anomalies in the supply and demand.

22

3. I Expect Time on the Market to Rise Much Faster than Prices Will Fall The drastic switching from a sprint to a full stop will ease up and then start picking up again as spring and summer come around and as interest rates continue to ease back down.

Inventory will increase a little bit, price reductions will continue for those who miss the mark in their initial pricing strategy. However, I expect time on the market to rise much faster than prices will fall. This has absolutely taken place. Take a look at the days on market and look at the median prices and you’ll see this prediction was spot on.

4. I Expect the Return of Seasonality I expect the return of seasonality as the speculative buyer and seller cool off and we return to traditional second home buyers and sellers focusing more on the summer months when the majority of Estes Park real estate activity has traditionally taken place.

The monthly number of sales doesn’t exactly support this expectation, but this still could play out. As urgency decreases on the seller side as well as the buyer side, because of higher interest rates, I would still expect this to play out in the future….it just hasn’t happened yet.

5. The Right to Use Your Property as a Short Term Rental (STR) Will Be Harder and Harder to Sustain The right to use your property as a Short Term Rental (STR) will be harder and harder to sustain. With the recent additional regulations and hoops necessary to operate a legal STR, the momentum in the town seems to be against the short-term rental owner/investor. If you have a license, I recommend keeping it intact as best you can because it adds a significant amount of value to your property.

This prediction has held true and will continue to be the case. In the last year, we’ve seen additional regulations and continued stories of homeowners having to fight tooth and nail to preserve their rights to rent short term. Keep an eye in this space for even more regulations in the future, but also one of the biggest opportunities to generate significant revenue if operated well.

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6. Low Inventory Will Continue to be One of the Biggest Driving Factors Towards the Health of Our Market Low inventory will continue to be one of the biggest driving factors towards the health of our market. With the majority of property owners having very low interest rates on their loans compared to what the going rate is, I am very confident low inventory will continue into the foreseeable future. Keeping an existing home is cheaper and easier to rent for a profit than to purchase new. As long as homeowners are incentivized to stay put, the supply and demand curve will dictate prices locally and across the nation.

While our inventory has risen significantly compared to last year, the number of properties is still significantly lower than our traditional levels BEFORE last year. The further you go back in time, the larger the available inventory for sale so we are still in very good territory for continued appreciation.

7. I Expect Median and Average Values to Increase 3%-5% in the Next Year Values will continue their march higher but more modestly than 2022. To be more specific, I would expect median and average values to increase in the 3% to 5% range in the next year.

The median sale price of all homes and condos in Estes Park rose 3.1% in 2023 compared to 2022.

Technically, that fits within the range I gave.

However, I expected to see a little more appreciation and activity than what we saw in 2023. Overall, my prediction was correct, and I would expect that same appreciation in 2024.

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Predictions For 2024 We are in an all new real estate market with unique headwinds we’ve not seen before. With the speed at which the market changed during covid and the years after that, anything is possible, but as time goes on, the more I see things trending toward the median on the long term. What does that look like in the short term? Here are a few specific predictions: 1. Interest Rates Will Continue to Fall Interest Rates will continue to fall from their current rates around 7%, but not as far as people would like them to. If we get down into the 5% range once again, many people expect values to climb significantly again. My prediction is somewhere around 6% by the end of 2024 based on what I am reading and hearing from industry experts.

2. Time on the Market Will Increase Again Compared to 2023.

Sellers have tasted the high prices in the last few years and I’m expecting them to wait for their price rather than lower it to find the demand. With more patient sellers, the average time on the market for properties will increase.

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3. Historically Low Inventory Will Remain Low Sure, there are more homes for sale compared to the last couple of years, but we are still significantly lower than before 2020. There may be more properties for sale on a month-to-month basis as interest rates remain relatively high. A huge number of homeowners locally and across the nation locked into low mortgage rates which means they will be reluctant to sell until mortgage rates fall even more.

4. The Political Climate Will Have a Positive Effect on the Real Estate Market I’m not declaring a vote for either side of the political aisle. However, the negative real estate market is a big enough headline that the existing administration or any future administration is going to do what they can to make the numbers look better for their own political gain.

That in turn will help homeowners and those seeking to become homeowners.

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Do What’s Right – We will never tire of doing what is right. We have conviction in knowing what is right, and we have the tenacity to never give up.

- Alpine Legacy Core Value

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Advice for Buyers Think Again Wipe away everything you used to be able to afford and the properties you looked at in your former price range. Take another look at the section in this report titled “Forget What You Think You Know.”

Lean on Your Agent to Help You Negotiate in Your Favor Cash is king, but it doesn’t always get you the keys to the castle in Estes Park. We are approaching 40% cash transactions in Estes Park which is higher than it has been in years because money has been “cheap” to borrow compared to historical averages. The demand for properties in Estes Park is made up of a substantial amount of wealthy purchasers who are financially able to purchase properties with cash instead of the more “expensive” interest rates we see today. When using all cash, it is common to expect that your cash will give you more power to negotiate, but sellers and seasoned local agents also know that a cash offer is not as rare as most people think it is. In summary, lean on your agent to help you negotiate in your favor because we have a lot of other ways to help negotiate a better transaction.

Just Do It. The number 1 comment we hear most often from buyers is “I wish I would have bought way back when.” That comment happens with people all the time whether they are referencing 3, 5, 10 or 50 years ago and I am confident this same comment will continue to haunt buyers for the next 3, 5, 10, or 50 years. My point is this: Don’t let interest rates or a down market deter you from making an investment in Estes Park real estate that will reap rewards for years into the future!

Build wealth while also establishing a place for memories to be made. What could be better in life than that?

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Know What You Want The properties that are selling quickly and at a premium are those that are new or freshly fixed up (within the last 5-10 years at a minimum) or that have an established short term rental permit or easy path to obtain one (either transferability or correct zoning). Knowing these are the top properties in the highest demand, you can plan accordingly. If you become interested in a property that has these features, expect others to also be competing even in today’s market with today’s interest rates.

Right Things, Right Order Stick to first things first! FIRST, confirm what you can/want to afford via your CPA, your financial planner, or your mortgage broker. SECOND, you can peek at what is available in the area you want to be in and analyze how your wants/needs match up with what is available in your price range. THIRD, work with your real estate agent to help put all the pieces together as your advocate to help you find the right property, negotiate on your behalf, and make the process easier for you. If you skip steps or if you do them out of order, you may regret it.

Make a Wise Decision When making a big financial decision, be sure to make a wise one by listening to both your heart and your head. Use both emotion and logic in your decision making and you’ll be successful getting what you want AND what you can afford. If you make a decision using only one or the other, doubt and regret creep in no matter what side of the fence you are on. A great real estate agent will be able to help keep you balanced with gentle reminders if you start to make decisions too far on either side of the equation.

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Advice For Sellers Be Flexible with the Terms You Are Offering It’s all a math problem so go ahead and work in credits to buy down mortgage rates for your buyers, offer closing costs, or other financial incentives. Lean on your real estate agent to help you predict your net proceeds and don’t be afraid to be creative in what you have to offer financially in order to attract more buyers in today’s market.

Video is More Important Than Ever Excellent videography is quickly becoming just as important as photos when marketing your home for sale. Both long form and short form video is creating extra exposure and capturing attention from more buyers. Be sure you are using a real estate agent who is focused on creating excellent video to showcase your property for sale and has a video strategy for marketing.

Photos are still as important as ever. The blend of photos and video are where your first impressions take place across the internet wherever buyers are searching for homes.

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First Impressions Matter Most Having your home ready to make a great first impression is one of the best things you can do to increase the speed of your sale and the overall net proceeds of your transaction. Pay attention to the details and especially focus on first impressions when you get to the house and within 30 seconds of walking in the front door.

Patience Is Required in Today’s Market If we aren’t sold in the first weekend, don’t panic!

Buyers are taking their time to make decisions these days so as time on the market goes up, it’s ok to wait as long as you price the property correctly from the beginning. Buyer’s radar for overpriced properties is very finely tuned and your property will simply get ignored if you overprice it.

The Art of Pricing Correctly Pricing your home correctly is as important as ever in today’s market. The strategy of pushing the price a little higher than what comparable properties are pointing towards is no longer a wise strategy. As I mentioned in the previous point, Buyer’s simply ignore overpriced listings. Likewise, pricing your property below market value in order to create a bidding war (a very successful strategy in recent years) is no longer wise, either. If only 1 buyer is willing to make the offer, the seller is obligated to honor the low price if nobody else competes. The goal of pricing a property should be to compel potential buyers into action on a timeline comfortable for the seller. If the seller is urgent to sell immediately, the price should be lower to compensate for that urgency. Likewise, if the seller is not urgent, then they have the flexibility to price it as they see fit and adjust as necessary knowing that time on the market is the enemy of a high sale price.

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We are extremely blessed and grateful as we enter the new year in 2024. If we can play a small part in helping you make your lives better through real estate, we would be honored to do so. We are looking forward to helping many more people make wise real estate decisions in Estes Park and Northern Colorado in 2024!

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Accomplishments & Awards in 2023

Six-Figure Agent

Icon Award

As for personal highlights, I traveled to many real estate conferences and events with the goal of helping lead the team to be more effective back home. I connected to the world of eXp Realty both in Colorado and across the country in events large and small. One of the biggest events of the year and of my career was the launching of a new book,

In addition, I also was awarded the eXp Realty ICON award because of his personal production and the support of the Alpine Legacy Team.

This prestigious award is the highest award for production in eXp Realty (less than 3% of the 89,000 exp agents world-wide are able to achieve this level of production).

Six Figure Agent.

I was honored to be one of the 15 authors contributing to the creation of this project.

This book became a best seller in several real estate categories on Amazon upon release which made me a “Best-Selling Author.” In addition, the book also earned a Quilly award in Beverly Hills, California, with the National Academy of Best Selling Authors. The success of the book and the features and benefits of eXp Realty on an international scale have allowed me to focus more on helping agents make wise real estate decisions in their career as a business owner and entrepreneur.

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New Chapters In The Office In the midst of a difficult year across the real estate industry, The Alpine Legacy Team was blessed to help many amazing people through their real estate decisions involving some truly spectacular properties in the Estes Park area.

Top 10 Real Estate Stories of the Year We enjoyed the process of retelling our client’s stories and showcasing the properties connected to those stories in our social media portals in early January 2024. We love the fact that we help people through fun, challenging, and sometimes difficult decisions. If you enjoy real estate eye candy and a good story, go check our social media channels or send us a message and we would be happy to share.

Team Growth We are super excited to see all the success Joy Basia has accomplished in her first 6 months as a real estate agent on our team.

With her diverse background as a business owner, marketer, professional coach, and ministry leader, she is uniquely positioned to connect with and help people looking to buy and sell real estate in Estes Park. She has quickly caught on to the Alpine Legacy culture of Helping People Make Wise Real Estate Decisions and we are excited to see where her career goes as we enter into this new year!

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Thank You! We are humbled by the loyalty we see from our many past clients and friends. We wouldn’t have a business to talk about if it wasn’t for you! Our goal is to reflect that gratitude back toward you by continuing our real estate services long beyond the sale. We want to continue to be your advocate to help you make wise decisions and build wealth through real estate while also creating a legacy of memories in amazing locations!

There Are a Few Ways You Can Help Alpine Legacy in the New Year •

The first is to provide us a 5-star review online on Google (scan the QR code!), Zillow, Facebook, or wherever possible.

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The second is to share this report with your friends, family, and acquaintances who are interested in real estate in the Estes Park area or anywhere in the country! We know how to find outstanding real estate agents in any location, and that process has been made even easier with our connection to eXp Realty.

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Third is that if you or someone you know is considering entering the real estate profession or is an established agent looking for a better way to build a career AND a have a better life, we want to help and would love to share our experiences! Again, this is not restricted to just Estes Park; we can help agents anywhere in the country!

If you would like a more detailed report containing any of the segments mentioned above or a specific segment that you have your eye on, please give us a call or email. We can customize the report to your specific situation and can include just about any stat you can think of!

Next time you hear someone talking about a real estate decision in Estes Park, don’t forget to tell them about Alpine Legacy and send them to our website at http://AlpineLegacy.com.

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Let’s Chat.

I’d love to talk with you about what you’ve read here and any questions that you have about real estate, whether buying, selling, investing, or making real estate a career! My contact information is below, and I look forward to hearing from you.

Sam Basel 970-215-0759 Sam@AlpineLegacy.com

AlpineLegacy.com 517 Big Thompson Ave #301 Estes Park, CO 80517 ***All stats pertain to the immediate Estes Park area determined by zip code and do not include the surrounding areas such as Allenspark, Glen Haven, Lyons, or Drake. All stats have been obtained via the IRES Multiple Listing Service.

2023 Market Review