Bbk rising middle class study 2015 20150421

RISING MIDDLE CLASS – GLOBAL OUTLOOK AND GROWTH POTENTIAL The Swiss perspective and example of Indonesia

Table of Contents

Foreword

3

1. Understanding the global Rising Middle Class (RMC)

4

Multiple definitions of Middle Class

6

Middle Class population growth

8

Top Ten RMC markets and industry opportunities 2. The rise of the global middle class and its potential for business Example: Indonesia

13 21

Understanding the Indonesian market and Rising Middle

24

Opportunities for Swiss companies in Indonesia

32

3. Swiss case studies and market entry strategies

40

4. Conclusions for SMEs and key takeaways

50

Appendix

54

2

Rising Middle Class | 23/04/2015 | Š SWITZERLAND GLOBAL ENTERPRISE

Foreword The global middle class changes the future of international business – Due to a strong increase in purchasing power among the Rising Middle Class (RMC), the world economy will change dramatically. In a world with a population of 8 billion by 2025, the middle class will represent the largest consumer segment.

The definition of middle class used in this study is mostly based on the World Bank’s definition which is not directly linked to the Swiss understanding of middle class. The use of the World Bank’s definition allows to gather insights from comparable data and helps to take a global perspective. Where necessary, this study makes reference to three different sources of middle class data.

Even though the global middle class is a relatively low income segment – as compared with Swiss income standards – and thus traditionally not the focus of Swiss SMEs, this fast growing consumer segment is expected to accelerate globalisation and bring it to the next level. In the last years significant production has been moved to Asia; now, the shift in consumption is expected to follow.

With 66% of the middle class living in Asia by 2030, this shift in consumption will also influence the Swiss economy.

Most Swiss exporters operate in the premium segment. Their traditional success factors are based on excellent quality and “Swissness”. They typically follow a niche segment approach with high levels of product and service individualisation. To benefit from the strong growth of the RMC, companies need to challenge their value proposition and business models when exploring emerging markets.

How can Swiss exporters profit from the increasing purchasing power of the global middle class? This study analyses the example of Indonesia as it has the fastest growing middle class in the world. Targeted industry sector opportunities are analysed in this study with illustrative case studies of Swiss companies.

With this study Switzerland Global Enterprise and PwC aim to improve the understanding of growth strategies and illustrate successful market entry strategies. We wish you an inspiring and interesting read.

Daniel Küng, CEO S-GE 3

Dr. Christoph Peter Head Export Development S-GE

Rising Middle Class | 23/04/2015 | © SWITZERLAND GLOBAL ENTERPRISE

Claudio Prante Strategy Manager PwC

1. UNDERSTANDING THE GLOBAL RISING MIDDLE CLASS (RMC) – DEFINITION, DRIVERS AND TRENDS Goals of this section: • Defining the global phenomenon of the Rising Middle Class • Highlighting drivers that fuel the rise of the global middle class and the economic impact of this development • Identifying the potential of this growing group of consumers for businesses • Creating an understanding of the particular needs and demands of the RMC

Introduction

Strong shift of consumption to Asia – The global middle class will consist of over 5 billion consumers by 2030 out of which 66% will live in Asian countries. India, China and the ASEAN countries will be the three largest economic markets in the world.

According to the World Bank, a person with a yearly income of USD 1’046-4’125 is considered to belonging to the emerging middle class. In comparison, the upper middle class, earns USD 4’126-12’745 per year. Both consumer segments will grow rapidly in the coming years. By any definition the middle class is growing – whether defined by the World Bank (USD 4’126-12’745), the OECD definition (USD 3’000-36’000) or HSBC standard (USD 3’000-15’000).

The development of the middle class has different trends in the world. In wealthy countries with high-income consumers such as most European countries, the US and Japan, the middle class won’t grow significantly, competition will rise and economic growth will be difficult to achieve. In contrast, the middle class grows strongly in Asia, Africa, as well as South America. The increased consumption trend will be most significant in large countries. Consumers will be able to buy more electronics, travel, transportation or health care. This will fuel the growth of the RMC and will offer opportunities for Swiss companies.

What does this growing group of wealthy consumers mean for business? RMC markets show trends of increased consumption in leisure and culture spending, with an estimated growth rate of 6-8% annually. This implies large business opportunities in tourism and infrastructure. The same sectors in wealthy economies, such as European countries or the US, will barely grow.

Similar developments can be observed in other industries: strong growth in the healthcare market, food and MEM industry as well as in the ICT sector with increasingly connected and online-oriented consumers. As a consequence, these consumers will be better informed and will reach out to products that they can afford. Therefore, low-cost offerings and innovation will become more important in the future for companies and entrepreneurs. RMC markets have special requirements as well as special needs. This will be a key challenge for the Swiss economy.

5

Rising Middle Class | 23/04/2015 | © SWITZERLAND GLOBAL ENTERPRISE

With growing prosperity millions of people will rise out of poverty to join the middle class

Middle class – A global phenomenon  The middle class is known for enjoying access to healthcare, job security, educational opportunities for their children and higher discretionary income that can be spent on e.g. leisure pursuits  It is characterised by innovation and entrepreneurship and commonly associated with hard work and a focus on education  The middle class consumer’s willingness and ability to pay a little extra encourages product differentiation and opens new opportunities

 According to the World Bank more than 5 billion people belong to the middle class globally Rising Middle Class economies

Upper Middle Class economies

Multiple definitions  The middle class is as much a social designation (e.g. values) as an economic classification (e.g. income)

Middle Class

World Bank Definition Class

Low

Rising Middle (RMC)

Upper Middle

Annual income per capita (USD)

<1’046

1’046-4’125

4’126-12’745 >12’745

Global population

0.8bn

2.6bn

2.4bn

1.3bn

% of global population

12%

36%

34%

18%

Wealthy

 There are two schools of thought as to how to economically define the global middle class: an absolute and a relative definition for each country  The definition and classification of middle class varies significantly. Prominent sources are the World Bank, the OECD and HSBC  This study makes reference to all three sources which can at times lead to differences in numbers  Notwithstanding the differences in definitions, there is an agreement on the global potential of the middle class

Note: The OECD defines middle class households as US$10-100 in PPP per capita per day; HSBC between US$3’000-15’000 in constant year US$2000; the Rising Middle is called the emerging middle by the World Bank Source: World Bank, OECD, HSBC 6

Rising Middle Class | 23/04/2015 | © SWITZERLAND GLOBAL ENTERPRISE

… driven by population and GDP growth, as well as global shifts in economic power and demographics

Population growth and demographic shifts

GDP growth and shift in economic power

 Population growth is the highest in developing countries, while mature economies are experiencing an aging population

 Western economic dominance is fading and recent developments show a rebalancing of global economies

 As the global population increases, more people are shifting into the middle class segment, which is known for a relatively high purchasing power  Almost 50% of this growth by 2025 is expected to come from Rising Middle economies, and the total middle class will account for c. 80% of the global population

Accelerating urbanization

 The UN estimates that there will be 22 mega-cities with populations of 10 million or more by 2015— 17 of which located in developing economies World urban population

The world urban population is expected to increase by 72% by 2050

72% increase

 When income per capita increases, people will shift from lower classes into the Rising and upper middle class, leading to higher purchasing power  In addition, GDP affects consumption confidence and consumer spending, which in turn has an effect on market growth and opportunities

Source: PwC Global Megatrend Outlook 2013 “Five megatrends and possible implications” Rising Middle Class | 23/04/2015 | © SWITZERLAND GLOBAL ENTERPRISE

2009 $29.0 trillion GDP

G7

$20.9 trillion GDP

E7

2050

$69.3 trillion GDP G7 (US, Japan, Germany, UK, France, Italy, Canada)

$138.2 trillion GDP E7 (China, India, Brazil, Russia, Indonesia, Mexico, Turkey)

Technological breakthrough

 The combination of the internet, mobile devices, data analytics and cloud computing will continue to be a key driver of transformation The rise of the “Internet of Things” World population

6.3 billion

6.8 billion

7.2 billion

7.6 billion

Connected devices

500 million

12.5 billion

25 billion

50 billion

1.84

3.47

More connected devices than people Connected devices per person

0.08 2003

7

GDP of G7 and E7 countries at USD PPP

2010

2015

6.58 2020

Middle class population growth of 1.3 billion will drive global population up to 8 billion in total by 2025

Global population 2000-25 9

8.04 billion % of total

8 7 # of billions

32%

 The global population is predicted to grow by almost 2 billion between 2000 and 2025, reaching a population of over 8 billion people by 2025

37%

 By 2030, Asia is expected to represent 66% of the global middle class population and 59% of middle class consumption

17% Upper class Wealthy

6 5

Upper Middle Class Upper middle class

4 3

Rising Middle Class

2

Rising Middle Lowclass Class

1 2000

14%

2013

2025

Population growth per income segment 2000-25

# of billions

CAGR: 0.5% 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 -

CAGR: 0.7%

CAGR: 2.2%

0.9bn 6.1bn

0.1bn

0.4bn

8bn

0.5bn

 Although all economy classes are predicted to show absolute growth, the global Rising Middle population will account for close to 50% of this population growth through an increase of nearly 1 billion people (904 million)

Total + 1.9 billion

2000

Wealthy

Upper middle class

Low class

Source: PwC Analysis, World Bank, OECD 8

CAGR: 1.5%

Rising Middle Class | 23/04/2015 | © SWITZERLAND GLOBAL ENTERPRISE

Rising middle class

2'025 2025

The key middle class driver GDP growth, indicates the potential in developing regions, especially Asia

GDP growth forecast (%) Forecast 6

5.4 4.8

5

Growth (%)

4 3

Forecast 5.5

3.5

3.4 2.4

4.8

2.8

 GDP growth in developing countries is expected to outperform global GDP 20132016 by 1-3%, mostly driven by Asian countries  This growth is driven by the development of increased trade, purchasing power and income per capita seen in developing countries

2 1 2013

2014

2015

2016

2013

Global

2014

2015

2016

Developing countries

GDP growth (%) in developing country regions Forecast

8 7

7.4

7.2

7.1

Growth (%)

6 5

7.0 6.3

5.9

5.0

4

5.3 4.7 4.0

3.7

3.6

3 2

7.1

2.4

1.9

1 2012 2013 East Asia and Pacific

2014 2015 Europe and Central Asia

Source: PwC Analysis, World Bank, Global Business Guide Indonesia 9

Rising Middle Class | 23/04/2015 | © SWITZERLAND GLOBAL ENTERPRISE

2016 South Asia

 East Asia and Pacific is expected to outperform both Europe + Central Asia and South Asia, indicating the strength and importance of this growing region  In addition, one of the key drivers for East Asia’s exceptional growth is the consistent and increasing interest from Western countries, especially Europe, sectors such as manufacturing and services, as well as travel and tourism

The middle class in Asia will increase dramatically in size over the course of the next 15 years

The middle class as defined by the OECD (million of people and global share) 100% 90%

2009 32 105 181

2020 57 165

2030 107 234

251

313

333

80% 338

322 680

70% 60%

664

40% 3’228 30% 20%

 The world is reaching a tipping point where over the next decade the global middle class will increase dramatically  Middle class growth will be led by the AsiaPacific region. Spearheaded by increases in China and India this region will account for 2/3 of the global middle class by 2030

1’740

525

10%

 Over the same time period the middle class will grow by more than 330 million people in South America, Middle East and Africa

0% Asia-Pacific

Europe

North America

Central and South America

Middle East and North Africa

Sub-Saharan Africa

Note: A range of US$10 to US$100 in PPP per capita per day is applied by the OECD to characterize middle class households Source: OECD Development Centre Working Paper No. 285 10

 Today, Europe accounts for 36% of global middle class population and North America for 18%, but their share is declining  With weak growth prospects in Europe and the US the middle class in emerging economies, particularly in Asia, are expected to become the new demand drivers

703

50%

 For the past 50 years middle class consumers from the G7 and the US have been the driving force of global demand

Rising Middle Class | 23/04/2015 | © SWITZERLAND GLOBAL ENTERPRISE

By comparing GDP growth and GDP per capita, certain Rising Middle countries particularly stand out

GDP per capita per country * Bubble size indicates country’s population

Switzerland

60'000

United States 50'000

Germany

 When comparing GDP growth between developed and under-penetrated markets, the latter often show higher growth rates. Some markets up to 4-5 times higher than developed countries

Developed countries with low growth forecasts United Kingdom

GDP/Capita ($), 2013

40'000 France Japan 30'000

Under-penetrated markets

20'000 Mexico 10'000

Poland

India

Brazil

0 0

Pakistan Egypt Senegal

2

-10'000

Wealthy (>$12,000)

4

Angola

Nigeria Kenya 6

8

Real GDP Growth, 2013 (%) Middle ($12,000 - $4,000)

Rising Middle ($4,000 - $1,000)

Source: PwC Analysis, IMF, World Bank 11

China Indonesia

Algeria

Rising Middle Class | 23/04/2015 | © SWITZERLAND GLOBAL ENTERPRISE

Low (<$1,000)

 When analysing population sizes, one specific country cluster vastly outperforms the other clusters, emerging economies e.g. China, India and Indonesia  These Rising Middle countries in particular are expected to become part of the top economic powers in the world, with large consumer populations and increasingly high purchasing power

Argentina

Turkey South Africa

-2

Emerging economies with high growth potential as well as large under-penetrated population

10

 Switzerland plays in a different league with a GDP per capita of almost US$ 85’000

Many Rising Middle Class countries will join the upper middle class by 2019

Growth outlook of GDP per capita 25'000 2000

2013

2019E

GDP per capita in US$

20'000

Wealthy

15'000

10'000

Upper Middle

5'000 RMC

-

Low

 Within the next years many economies will see a significant growth in GDP per capita. The selected countries of which many are Rising Middle Class or upper middle class countries are estimated to see an average increase of 4.1% per year in GDP per capita between 2013 and 2019  Especially RMC countries such as India, Egypt, Vietnam and Indonesia reach CAGRs of up to 9% Note: Figures depicted are not adjusted according to World Bank Atlas method Source: PwC Analysis, World Bank, IMF 12

Rising Middle Class | 23/04/2015 | © SWITZERLAND GLOBAL ENTERPRISE

Among the Top 10 Rising Middle Class markets, China is expected to drive most of middle class growth until 2030

Size of middle class as defined by HSBC in the 10 fastest growing emerging markets 2'000 1'855

Pakistan

# of people in million

1'800 Indonesia 1'600 Turkey 1'400

CAGR 4.5%

Egypt

1'200

Mexico

1'000

Philippines

800 800

Russia

600

Brazil

400

India

200

China

0 Middle class 2011

Middle class 2030

 The 10 analysed countries alone are expected to add 1 billion people to the rising middle by 2030, 70% of this growth is expected to come from China and India Note: According to HSBC’s definition middle class households have earnings of US$3’000-15’000 in constant US$2000 Source: PwC Analysis, HSBC 13

Rising Middle Class | 23/04/2015 | © SWITZERLAND GLOBAL ENTERPRISE

Number of people joining the middle class by 2030 (millions) 1

China

564

2

India

170

3

Brazil

73

4

Russia

51

5

Philippines

40

6

Mexico

40

7

Egypt

32

8

Turkey

32

9

Indonesia

31

10

Pakistan

22

 By 2030 73 million people will join the middle class in Brazil which circa corresponds to the size of the current population of France  India, Indonesia and Egypt are expected to add even more people to the middle class between 2030 and 2050 than over the coming two decades

Industry opportunities in these 10 key RMC markets: 8.7% CAGR for food and 8.9% for the life science sector

Food sector growth in selected middle class countries: consumer spending, 2010-2019 4'000 CAGR 8.7%

US$ billion

3'000

16.0%

1'000

20.0%

14.0%

900

18.0%

800

12.0%

2'500

10.0%

2'000

8.0%

12.0%

500

10.0%

400

8.0%

300

6.0%

200

4.0% 2.0%

6.0%

1'000

4.0%

500

2.0%

100

-

0.0%

-

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019

 The growth of the middle class in emerging markets is going hand in hand with changing food patterns – away from traditional foods and drinks to meat, cheese, milk and wine  In many countries eating habits start to mimic those in the West. Food producers can build on the already stellar reputation of the Swiss brand and benefit from the changing demand of the growing middle class in emerging markets

Total spending

Rising Middle Class | 23/04/2015 | © SWITZERLAND GLOBAL ENTERPRISE

Yearly growth

 China’s per capita spending on health related products/services is expected to be under US$500 in 2015, a third of Brazil (US$1’400) and far below the US$8’800 in the US

 However, as the middle class is dramatically growing and purchasing power increasing, we expect countries such as China to catch up  Swiss medical equipment producers and other companies from the life science/health sector recognizing this trend may greatly benefit from the Rising Middle Class

Note: Weighted growth rates of 10 key RMC countries: Brazil, China, Egypt, India, Indonesia, Mexico, Turkey, Philippines, Russia, Pakistan Source: PwC Analysis, World Bank, National Statistical Offices, HSBC, FAO 14

0.0% 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019

Yearly growth

 As consumers grow in prosperity they become increasingly sophisticated in their food choices and demands

14.0%

600

1'500

Total spending

16.0%

CAGR 8.9%

700 US$ billion

3'500

Life science/ health sector growth in selected middle class countries: spending on health products, 2010-2019

Industry opportunities in these 10 key RMC markets: 10.6% CAGR for the ICT sector and 9.2% for the MEM sector

ICT sector growth in selected middle class countries: spending on communications, 2010-2019 20.0%

2'000

900

18.0%

1'800

800

16.0%

1'600

14.0%

1'400

CAGR 10.6%

600

12.0%

US$ billion

1'000

700 US$ billion

MEM sector growth in selected middle class countries: spending on transport, 2010-2019

10.0%

400

8.0%

300

6.0%

600

200

4.0%

400

100

2.0%

200

0.0%

-

 75 percent of smartphone buyers will pay less than US$100 for their device, whereas sales of high-end phones are expected to stagnate  The increase of internet users combined with higher purchasing power will also create opportunities for Swiss firms. Whether in the area of data security, e-market places or innovative start-ups, demand of the global middle class accelerates

Rising Middle Class | 23/04/2015 | © SWITZERLAND GLOBAL ENTERPRISE

10.0% 5.0% 0.0% 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 Total spending

Yearly growth

 90% of the variation in passenger car ownership is explained by differences in per capita income. As per capita income approaches US$3’000 passenger car ownership sharply increases  By 2020, China is expected to become the world largest, India the third and Brazil the fourth largest market for motor vehicles  Not only Swiss automotive suppliers may benefit from this growth but also other OEMs and mechanical engineering companies from a variety of industries

Note: Weighted growth rates of 10 key RMC countries: Brazil, China, Egypt, India, Indonesia, Mexico, Turkey, Philippines, Russia, Pakistan Source: PwC Analysis, World Bank, National Statistical Offices, HSBC, Skolkovo, Gartner 15

15.0%

800

Yearly growth

 By 2018 almost 80 percent of worldwide smartphone sales will be generated in developing markets

20.0%

1'000

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 Total spending

25.0% CAGR 9.2%

1'200

500

-

30.0%

With increasing purchasing power consumption patterns are expected to move away from basic products and services

Changing demand with increasing prosperity

Economic prosperity / Income

High

Meat Apparel Stimulants

Beverages Cars Appliances PC/Laptops Education

Education Healthcare Consumer Credit Beauty Products Tourism/Travel

Wealthy

Upper Middle

Cereals Two Wheelers RMC

Low

Low

Consumption behaviour

 Historical evidence shows that increases in economic prosperity (ie. higher income) drives the consumption of non-basic products and/or services  Within the next decade many people are expected to benefit from higher income levels which will drive industries such as education, healthcare, beauty products and services and tourism. Especially China will see rapid increase in spending on status symbols Source: PwC Analysis, World Bank, IMF, Credit Suisse

16

Rising Middle Class | 23/04/2015 | © SWITZERLAND GLOBAL ENTERPRISE

Examples of increasing purchasing power can be observed in industries such as automotive, travel and fashion

Changing consumer demand through economic growth – The example of cars

 A population’s level of wealth clearly influences the types of goods and services that will be bought

700

600

Australia Germany

Cars per 1000 people

500

Poland

France EU

Austria

Switzerland

Belgium Japan

UK

United States

 A similar phenomenon can be observed for leisure travel and tourism spending per capita

400 Malaysia

300

 Currently 34% of the French population leaves the country for holidays, respectively 20% in the US and 13% in Japan. In India only 1.2% leaves the country for tourism, 2.7% in Brazil and 4.3% in China

Mexico

200

Turkey

100

Thailand China Pakistan

0

Indonesia

0

20000

40000

60000

-100

-200

GDP per capita (current US$)

Source: PwC Analysis, Credit Suisse, IMF, World Bank, HSBC 17

 For example, countries such as Indonesia, China, Thailand and Pakistan will see an acceleration in automobile ownership as incomes increase, whereas levels in developed countries will plateau

Rising Middle Class | 23/04/2015 | © SWITZERLAND GLOBAL ENTERPRISE

80000

100000

 Other sectors such as cosmetics, fashion as well as watches and jewellery show a similar trend

Example Tourism: Rising Middle expenditure growth in recreation and culture is expected to outperform

Example: Forecast expenditure growth in recreation and culture 2012-2050 9% 8%

8.4%

RMC 7.8%

7.8%

Established middle class

7% 6.1%

CAGR

6%

5.9%

 The example of recreation and culture expenditure shows the development of the Rising Middle’s increased spending in sectors that represent leisure and “nice-to have” expenditure

5% 4% 3% 1.7%

2%

1.7%

 Moving from the lower class, where expenditure is limited to life and survival necessities, the Rising Middle is becoming increasingly interesting for companies outside markets concerning basic needs  Such remarkable growth as presented in this example shows the expenditure potential in middle class sectors that lies in Rising Middle economies, especially the Asian region

1% 0%

CAGR between 2012 and 2050

Source: PwC Analysis, HSBC, Consumer in 2050, 2012 18

 The forecast expenditure growth rate (CAGR) to 2050 in recreation and culture in Rising Middle countries is expected to largely outperform established middle class and wealthy countries, with c. 4.2-6.7%

Rising Middle Class | 23/04/2015 | © SWITZERLAND GLOBAL ENTERPRISE

Example Communication: Changes in the mobile phone market is also driven by the RMC

Global forecast mobile phone penetration 100%

High end

Global mobile phone market High end >$200 (smartphones)

High end

90%

Apple

30% 80% 70%

Middle end $100-200 (smartphones)

60%

% of total

60% Smartphones 50% Feature phones* 40%

Low end $20-100 (basic feature phones)

70% 30% 20%

40%

10%

0% 2013

2019

* Feature phone is the common name for a basic phone with basic internet features, often without touchscreen Source: PwC Analysis, Ericsson Mobility Report Nov 2013, Global Business Guide Indonesia, Tech in Asia 19

Rising Middle Class | 23/04/2015 | © SWITZERLAND GLOBAL ENTERPRISE

 The global mobile phone market shows a typical example of the Rising Middle consumer’s demands and values  Feature phones still hold a vast majority of market share, c.

70%, with Nokia (Microsoft) as a clear market leader  Meanwhile, global smartphone penetration is experiencing rapid growth driven by emerging markets  The most popular smartphones are less expensive (USD100200) than high end brands, e.g. Apple, however with similar features  This middle end segment is experiencing exceptional competition between both international and numerous local brands, e.g. Chinese Xiaomi and Indonesian Mito

Accounting for two thirds of global consumption, the global middle class represents a market size of over USD 6 trillion

Global consumption per consumption class (USD PPP*, 2010) 100% 100% 90%

1'534

80%

% of total

70%

$6.3 trillion (64% of global consumption)

3'183

60%

Heinz Thuering, Manager Strategic Projects & Alliances, Straumann AG Wealthy Upper Middle Class

50%

Rising Middle Class Low Class

40% 3'108 30% 20% 10%

We cannot “not” look into those growing markets. It is key that the management evaluates the situation and makes long-term strategic decisions.

1'931

n Tree Holdings Ltd. Not only big companies are challenged to focus on markets with a growing middle class. SME's, medium as well as small-ones, should also evaluate this opportunity and come up with creative approaches Daniel Küng, CEO, Switzerland Global Enterprise

0% * PPP (Purchasing Power Parity)

 Global consumption is increasing as the middle class grows, resulting in an annual global consumption worth over USD 9.5 trillion (in USD PPP 2005)  A large part of this consumption comes from the global middle class, accounting for 64% of total consumption and a value of c. USD 6.3 trillion, of which USD 3.1 trillion is consumed annually by the RMC

Source: PwC Analysis, World Bank, (PwC APEC CEO Survey 2013) 20

Rising Middle Class | 23/04/2015 | © SWITZERLAND GLOBAL ENTERPRISE

Every time I travel across the ASEAN region I am totally impressed about the speed or dynamics and wish, especially more Swiss SMEs would make a move to conquer these highly attractive RMC markets.

Wolfgang Schanzenbach, Regional Director Asia + Pacific, Switzerland Global Enterprise

2. THE RISE OF THE GLOBAL MIDDLE CLASS AND ITS BUSINESS POTENTIAL – EXAMPLE: INDONESIA Goals of this section: • •

• • •

Highlighting the attractiveness of the Indonesian market and its potential for businesses Defining the Rising Middle Class in the Indonesian context Characterising the Indonesian market, underlining key aspects that have to be considered by companies Generating an understanding of the Indonesian consumer market and how the rise of the middle class impacts it Identifying opportunities for Swiss companies in the Indonesian market

Introduction

The Indonesian example shows that RMC markets grow rapidly – Indonesia has tripled its GDP in the last 10 years and will be one of the leading economies in Asia by 2030, fuelled by middle class consumption. This offers great opportunities to Swiss companies that they currently do not fully exploit The population of Indonesia will grow from 252 million to over 300 million people by 2030. This demographic shift represents one of the key growth drivers. The middle class segment will increase and be a key factor in stable development, as millions of consumers will come out of poverty.

These new consumers will be able to buy technology gadgets, support their families, make investments and will increasingly consume “nice-to-have products”. As education becomes increasingly important, RMC consumers will be better informed and expect “value for money” products they can afford, notwithstanding their relatively low-budgets.

With more people living in cities, the urbanization trend will offer interesting opportunities to engage with consumers. In the future 17 out of a total of 22 mega cities will be located in emerging countries. In Indonesia this trend is accompanied by impressive developments in infrastructure and transportation. For market entry strategies, this implies the need to focus on economic centres and establish presences in prospering areas, which is a key success factor, particularly in Indonesia with its unique geography.

What are the implications for selected industry sectors? As some examples show, there will be strong growth in health care and life science sectors, a strong increase in transportation, automobile sales and infrastructure investments as well as an increasing demand for technology and communication products. This, in turn, will also lead to more needs in the business to business segment and will lead to strong growth in machinery and industrial segments.

Accounting for 4% of European exports to Indonesia, Switzerland belongs to the group of smaller business partners, but is in a good position to further grow and prosper in this RMC market. However, this requires a new market approach and a strategic understanding of distribution approaches, products and solutions.

22

Rising Middle Class | 23/04/2015 | © SWITZERLAND GLOBAL ENTERPRISE

By 2030, Indonesia will have the 4th largest middle class market, partly due to exceptionally steady growth

Real GDP growth vs. volatility

2009

2020

2030

1

U.S.

4.4

China

4.5

India

12.8

2

Japan

1.8

U.S.

4.3

China

10.0

3

Germany

1.2

India

3.7

U.S.

4.0

4

France

0.9

Japan

2.2

Indonesia

2.5

5

U.K.

0.9

Germany

1.4

Japan

2.3

6

Russia

0.9

Russia

1.2

Russia

1.4

7

China

0.9

France

1.1

Germany

1.3

8

Italy

0.7

Indonesia

1.0

Mexico

1.2

9

Mexico

0.7

Mexico

1.0

Brazil

1.2

10

Brazil

0.6

U.K.

1.0

France

1.1

World

21.3

World

35.0

World

55.7

 The Indonesian market is expected to be the world’s fourth largest middle class consumption market by 2030, overtaking many European countries on the way  This growth is fuelled by a young and growing population as well as the increasingly sophisticated demands of middle class consumers

Standard deviation of Real GDP 2000 - 20012

Top 10 countries: middle class consumption (2005 USD trillion PPP)

0 6% Turkey 0 5%

Singapore

0 4% Korea

2% 0 European Union

1% 0

Rising Middle Class | 23/04/2015 | © SWITZERLAND GLOBAL ENTERPRISE

China

Brazil

Laos Indonesia

0%

2%

4%

6%

8%

10%

Average Real GDP growth 2013 - 2018

 Indonesia exhibits a relatively low volatility for high single digit GDP growth compared with other emerging markets  This degree of stability is also reflected by the constantly high level of confidence of the Indonesian consumers since 2007.

Even throughout the financial crisis, consumers indicated optimism regarding the Indonesian economy

Source: PwC Analysis, Brookings Institute, OECD Development Centre Working Paper No. 285, KKR Global Macro & Asset Allocation, IMF 23

Cambodia

0 3%

UNDERSTANDING THE INDONESIAN MARKET AND RISING MIDDLE

Representing 44% of the total population by 2025, the Indonesian Rising Middle’s significance increases rapidly

Population distribution of Indonesia, 2013-2025 2013

2025 0.09%

2% 0.02%

6% 28% 70%

Low Class (<2.97$*/capita per day)

Rising Middle Class (2.97-8.44$*/ capita per day)

44%

Upper Middle Class (8.4423.03$*/capita per day)

50%

Wealthy (>23.03$*/capit a per day)

Key characteristics of the average Rising Middle consumer  Connected, e.g. mobile penetration / social media  Aspirations towards higher classes and consumption trends, but for less money  Slow tendency towards high education spending  Family oriented

 The RMC in Indonesia is defined using the World Bank’s definition of the low consumption segment in order to maintain global comparability. This consumption segment indicates a household consumption of USD 2.97-8.44 PPP/capita per day  The upper middle class is defined with a consumption of USD 8.44-23.03 PPP/capita per day. Meanwhile the low class accounts for spending below USD 2.97 PPP/capita per day and the wealthy class above USD 23.03 PPP/capita per day  The Indonesian RMC is predicted to grow from making out 28% of the total population to 44% by 2025, while the upper middle class will grow from 2% to 6%, in turn leading to the Indonesian population consisting of 50% middle class in total  Key characteristics indicate that although Indonesia is a country with a growing middle class, the Rising Middle is still not keen on unnecessary spending and each purchase is motivated by value and functionality

*PPP USD Source: PwC Analysis, World Bank (The classification of consumption segments are based on the World Bank definition of Lowest to High consumption segments), PwC report “Profitable growth strategies for the Global Emerging Middle” 25

Rising Middle Class | 23/04/2015 | © SWITZERLAND GLOBAL ENTERPRISE

Key indicators implicate the improvement and potential of the Indonesian economy and business environment

Historical improvement of ranking

Population distribution of Indonesia, 2013-2025

300

# of millions

250

1'214

271 257 260 263 265 247 250 252 255

282

Forecast 296 306

1'400 1'200

200

800

150

600

100

400

50

200

-

GDP growth

1'000 billion (US$)

350

Indonesian ranking

2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2021 2025 2030 2035

Total population

Indonesian GDP

 The middle class in Indonesia is predicted to reach close to 50% of population by 2025 and the total population will reach 282 million by then, which indicates an expected Indonesian middle class of 141 million people  With key market characteristics and indicators showing the Indonesian path towards an urban and modern society, this large middle class is predicted to create great opportunities for both foreign and domestic businesses

* Based on IMF definition of emerging markets Source: PwC Analysis, World Bank, Transparency International, WEF, Michigan State University, The Heritage Foundation 26

Rising Middle Class | 23/04/2015 | © SWITZERLAND GLOBAL ENTERPRISE

3rd /23*

Ease of doing business (Globally)

120th

Economic Freedom (Globally)

100th

Corruption (Globally)

114th

Commercial Infrastructure

20th/23*

Over 17’000 islands and a 67% urban population by 2035 indicate unique characteristics and potential…

Urbanization in Indonesia, 2009-2035

Urban centres and manufacturing hotspots 2025

100% Sumatra – core industrial centre: Mineral resources, rubber, palm oil, timber, tobacco, paper and pulp, petrochemicals

90% 80% 49% % of total population

70%

67%

Sulawesi: Plantation, fishery and nickel

60% Medan

50%

Urban population

40%

Rural population

Makassar

Semarang Jakarta Surabaya

30%

Bandung

51% 20%

33%

10% 0% 2009

2035

 Indonesia’s population is predicted to continue growing, showing a predicted growth of 21% between 2014 and 2035  With a population size only surpassed by China, India and the United States as well as increased urbanization, the Indonesian urban population will reach over 200 million

Source: PwC Analysis, World Bank, BPS-Statistics Indonesia 27

Kalimantan: Pulp and paper, wood and wood products

Rising Middle Class | 23/04/2015 | © SWITZERLAND GLOBAL ENTERPRISE

Papua + Maluku Agriculture, oil production and mining

Java + Bali – core urban + industrial centre: Textile, food and beverages, petrochemicals Urban city of over 10 million

Urban city of 2-4 million

 The unique geography of Indonesia, with over 17’000 islands, is important to consider when attempting to target a specific customer segment  Urbanization is likely to create an environment with urban clusters of large multi-million cities, mainly centred on Java, but also Sumatra and Sulawesi

… confirmed by Indonesia’s remarkable GDP growth in less than 10 years

GDP by sector 2004-2013 1'000

Electricity, gas and water supply

868

900 800 + USD 611 bn.

700

billion US$

600

Textile, leather products and footwear Transport and Communication Food, beverages and tobacco

500

Finance, real estate and business services Construction

400

Sevices

300

540

Mining and quarrying

257

Trade, hotel, and restaurant

200

Other Manufacturing industry

100 0 2004

2009

2013

Agriculture, livestock, Forestry and Fishery

Note: For the sake of comparability GDP is expressed in US$ and may include significant currency fluctuations

 Indonesia’s mining and quarrying and construction sectors have experienced exceptional growth over the last 10 years with a CAGR of 17.4% and 19.9% respectively

 The extraordinary growth that Indonesian GDP has shown in recent years is mainly driven by increased agriculture revenue and manufacturing investments as well as services, trade and tourism  Infrastructure spending in Indonesia is expected to grow to around USD 165 billion by 2025 as the country expands all sectors, e.g. transport and power in order to support economic growth  Forecasts predict that the manufacturing industry will create total output worth between USD 900-950 billion  Food and beverages market has a large potential lies as incomes continue to rise and demand increases for food that is fast and convenient, while still healthy

 Opportunities exist not only for food and beverage producers, but also machinery providers for enhanced production efficiency and quality

 This growth is closely followed by economic acceleration in the transport and communication (CAGR 15.0%) and services (CAGR 15.3%) sectors. Overall Indonesian GDP grew from USD 256.8 billion to USD 868.3 billion between 2004 and 2013 Source: PwC Analysis, PwC expert interviews, World Bank, Bank Indonesia, PwC report “A Summary of South East Asian Infrastructure Spending: Outlook to 2025” 2014, Global Business Guide Indonesia 28

Rising Middle Class | 23/04/2015 | © SWITZERLAND GLOBAL ENTERPRISE

Key middle class consumption sectors are ICT and transport, involving “nice to have” products…

Consumption distribution by consumption segment Indonesia 2010 100% 7.3%

100%

0.2%

90%

90% Forecast trend*

80% 70%

43.2%

60%

Wealthy Upper Middle Class

50%

Rising Middle Class

40% 30% 49.3%

Low Class

60%

30%

Rising Middle Class | 23/04/2015 | © SWITZERLAND GLOBAL ENTERPRISE

10.5%

Water utility 4.6% 5.0% 9.0% 11.1%

5.9%

Financial services Personal care Health Education

11.8%

Clothing and Footwear

ICT Energy

56.2% 41.2%

20%

0%

Source: PwC Analysis, World Bank

14.1%

100%

40%

10%

 Consumption distribution in Indonesia shows that the low class still makes up a large part of total consumption  However, the rising and upper middle classes, which together make up the entire middle class, account for over 50% of total consumption

2.1% 6.2%

50%

10%

* As per, the forecast population growth per consumption segment, see p. 17

100%

70%

20%

0%

29

80% % of consumption

% of total Indonesian consumption

100%

Consumption distribution for the Indonesian middle class compared to low class

Housing Other Transport

Low Class

Middle Class household consumption

Food & Beverages

Note: The definition of classes is based on the World Bank definition of Lowest to High consumption segments.

The total middle class (rising and upper middle class) is defined to consist of both the low and middle consumption segments)

 Within the Indonesia’s middle class consumption, the difference compared to the low class is higher consumption in sectors such as transport and ICT  This indicates that although nutrition and necessities are still important purchases, the middle class is spending more and more on “nice to haves”

… driven by increasing Indonesian connectivity, which is outperforming other Rising Middle economies,…

Mobile subscriptions per 100 people 2013

# Mobile subscription development Indonesia 2009-2013

# mobile subscriptions per 100 people

122 120 100

93 85

80

Rising middle income economies Global

60

Indonesia

40 20 -

 Indonesia is considered to be one of the most “connected” developing countries in the world  Its connectivity rate can be presented through the number of mobile subscriptions, where it clearly outperforms both the global and the rising middle income economy average

Source: PwC Analysis, World Bank 30

Rising Middle Class | 23/04/2015 | © SWITZERLAND GLOBAL ENTERPRISE

# mobile subscriptions per 100 people

140

140

CAGR 9%

120

114

CAGR 22%

100 80

122

102

88 69

60 40 20 2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

 Mobile subscriptions have shown high and steady growth over the past years, a result of increased urbanization and RMC population  As the Indonesian Rising Middle continues to grow, connectivity and consumption is expected to increase, making Indonesia a country to target in the years to come

… as well as increased mobility, as seen in the exceptional growth of Indonesian air travel since 2009

Air transport development in Indonesia 2009-2013 90

80

85

High growth due to lifting of EU-ban for Indonesian airlines in 2010

CAGR 13%

79

 In 2010, Indonesian air travel experienced immense growth due to the removal of a ban in the EU for all Indonesian airlines, as well as increased domestic air travel

71

# millions of passengers carried

70

 The EU ban was introduced after several Indonesian airline accidents in 2007 and was due to questionable safety routines. After improving safety initiatives and regulations, the ban was removed in 2010 and Indonesian air travel has shown high growth every year since

59

60

50

CAGR 117%

40

30

 A sum of USD 3.3 billion is to be invested in the construction of 10 new airports in 2013 and 15 in 2014. Additional investments are being made in the modernization of existing airports

27

20

10

2009

2010

2011

2012

Source: PwC Analysis, World Bank, PwC “The “new normal” for airport investment 2013, CAPA Centre for Aviation, 31

 Air travel and mobility has increased rapidly over the past years, another result of increased urbanization, mobility and a growing middle class. By 2042, Indonesia is predicted to have the 5th largest air travel market

Rising Middle Class | 23/04/2015 | © SWITZERLAND GLOBAL ENTERPRISE

2013

 After many years of government restrictions on foreign ownership and investments in Indonesian airports, it was announced in late 2013 that the rules for foreign investors would ease. This change in attitude unlocks a large potential for foreign companies in travel and construction

OPPORTUNITIES FOR SWISS COMPANIES IN INDONESIA

An increase in Indonesian consumer expenditure by 7.7% annually to 2030 presents a significant market potential

Annual consumer spending 2011-2030 1'200 1’067 1'000

billion US$

800

600

Total +805 billion

CAGR (2011-2030)

6.4%

Health care

5.3%

Personal items

4.7%

Telecom

4.6%

Housing and utilities

4.5%

Transportation

6.0%

Education

5.1%

Apparel

7.6%

Leisure

5.3%

Food and beverage

10.5%

Savings and investment

400 262 200

0 2011

2030

 The Indonesian savings and investment sector as well as the retail sector are expected to become large consumer markets by 2030  The compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of the savings and investments sector is to exceed 10%. Consumer spending for leisure and education is expected to grow by 7.5% and 6% annually, respectively Source: PwC Analysis, MGI 2012, CSI Indonesia survey 2011, Bank Indonesia, C-GIDD Canback, Redwing, Facebook 33

Rising Middle Class | 23/04/2015 | © SWITZERLAND GLOBAL ENTERPRISE

 Consumer spending, fuelled by the ascent of many Indonesians into the middle class, is expected to expand from USD 262bn in 2011 to almost USD 1.1tn in 2030  Indonesian consumers increasingly use the Internet. The country will have over 330 million mobile subscribers and over 125 million active internet users by 2015  Indonesia, currently the 4th largest Facebook market, will continue to expand its social media community as increased smartphone penetration will enable access to mobile internet. By 2015, smartphones will account for 40% of all Indonesian mobile phones

Switzerland has become the 9th ranked European exporter goods to Indonesia

Imports in Indonesia by European country

Swiss exports to Indonesia

Ranking

14.6

14.5

14 12.9

12 10.3 billion US$

10

8

6

0.5 0.6 0.5 0.7 0.7 0.9

0.4 0.6 0.9 0.9 0.8

4

Ireland

#13

Denmark

#12

Austria

#11

Finland

#10

Spain

1.3

0.6 0.6 0.6 0.8

0.9

1.0

#9

Switzerland

1.4

1.4

#8

Belgium

1.6

#7

1.9

#6

Others of European Union Sweden

#5

Netherlands

#4

United Kingdom

#3

France

#2

Italy

#1

Germany

0.5 0.6 0.8

1.2 2.0 1.5

1.3

#14

1.7

1.2 0.9

2 3.0

3.4

4.2

4.4

2010

2011

2012

2013

 Despite earlier growth of EU, exports stagnated in 2013 due to reduced exports from France, Sweden and other smaller countries  However, all other large countries increased imports, some by almost 20%, e.g. Spain, Austria, the Netherlands and Denmark Source: PwC Analysis, BPS-Statistics Indonesia, Swiss Customs Administration 34

Rising Middle Class | 23/04/2015 | © SWITZERLAND GLOBAL ENTERPRISE

700 CAGR 17%

600

500

466 440

million US$

16

606

456

400

300

200

100

2010

2011

2012

2013

 Meanwhile, Swiss exports to Indonesia increased by far the most, with growth of 33% between 2012 and 2013  Nevertheless, Switzerland still has a relatively low percentage of total European exports to Indonesia at 4%, compared with Germany at 32% and Italy at 12%

However, in terms of overall Swiss exports to emerging markets, Indonesia appears to be ranked 13th at only 0.3% of total exportsâ&#x20AC;Ś

Swiss exports to emerging markets 2013 (USD) Ranking #1

#12

China Russia Brazil Poland India Turkey Mexico Thailand Romania Argentina Malaysia South Africa

#13

Indonesia

#14

Ukraine Colombia Venezuela Philippines Bulgaria Chile Pakistan Peru

#2 #3 #4 #5

0.6bn

#6

8.9bn

#7 #8 #9

0.9bn 1.1bn 1.6bn

Indonesia #13 destination for Swiss goods in emerging markets

#10 #11

3.4bn

2.2bn

#15 #16

2.2bn 2.2bn

2.4bn

#17 #18 #19 #20 #21

Exports to Indonesia currently account for only 0.3% of total Swiss exports or USD 0.6bn. Even compared with other emerging markets, Indonesia has not received the attention it deserves. Indonesia imported goods worth almost USD 133bn in 2013, hence Swiss goods account for only 0.5% of its total imports

Source: PwC Analysis, Swiss Customs Administration 35

Rising Middle Class | 23/04/2015 | Š SWITZERLAND GLOBAL ENTERPRISE

…which suggests that Swiss firms might have not fully realized the value that lies in the Indonesian market

GDP by sector 2013

Swiss exports to Indonesia 2013 (million CHF)

Forecast trend Capital goods

294

Machines and appliances

270

Consumer goods

Other Manufacturing industry

125

Trade, hotel, and restaurant

124

11

98

Services Sevices

96 87

0 200

Finance, real estate and business services

65

Food, beverages and tobacco

64

Textile, leather products and footwear

16

Electricity, gas and water supply

7 -

400 Strong growth

 Capital goods account for more than half of all Swiss exports to Indonesia, in particular machines and appliances  The rise of Indonesian middle class consumption constitutes an opportunity to increase the export of consumer goods to Indonesia. For example, food, beverage and tobacco products account for only CHF 20 million of Swiss exports, compared with a USD 65bn market in Indonesia Source: PwC Analysis, Swiss Customs Administration, Bank Indonesia, Global Business Guide Indonesia Rising Middle Class | 23/04/2015 | © SWITZERLAND GLOBAL ENTERPRISE

61

Transport and Communication

133

- million CHF

36

Mining and quarrying

Construction

20

Raw materials and semi-finished products Energy sources

125

145

Food, beverages and tobacco Consumer durables

Agriculture, livestock, Forestry and Fishery

Expected growth

billion US$

100

Moderate growth to flat development

 The largest sectors by their contribution to the gross domestic product of Indonesia, are agriculture, livestock, forestry and fishery; trade, hotel and restaurant; and mining and quarrying  However, with growth fuelled by a RMC, sectors such as food, beverages and tobacco as well as transportation and communication are expected to experience strong growth over the next years

Example Indonesia: The healthcare opportunity Healthcare spending to grow at almost 10% CAGR

Healthcare spending Indonesia 2013-2018

Key trends

70

Forecast

60 60

CAGR 9.9%

billion US$

50

 The success of this insurance programme, however has been limited due to e.g. the unique Indonesian geography, and the low level of information penetration to hospitals concerned

37

40

 The Indonesian government launched a public health insurance program in 2014, focussing on the poor and near-poor to reach full population coverage by 2019

30

 Both the pharmaceutical and equipment + medical device markets are expected to double over the next 7 years, driven by increased healthcare expenditure and the building of new hospitals and clinics across the country – 154 new hospitals planned by the government in 2014

20 10 2013

2018

Healthcare industry Indonesia 2010-2020

Key take aways

2013 (billion USD)

2020 (billion USD)

Pharmaceutical market

5

10

Healthcare spending

37

60

Market size for prescription drugs

6

11

Healthcare equipment and medical device market

1

2

 The Indonesian healthcare market is expected to almost double in the next coming years, indicating large potential for companies that can enter the market and profit from this growth  Companies have to consider the geographical context in which healthcare services and products are offered. Approaching the Indonesian consumer through alternative or innovative channels may be the key to success  Even though Indonesia is estimated to become the second largest pharmaceutical market in the ASEAN by 2015, current healthcare spending is at a low level. Moving towards better healthcare services will fuel growth over the coming years

Source: PwC Analysis, PwC expert interviews WHO, World Bank, GlobalData, EIBN (EU-Indonesia Business Network), IRIN (Integrated Regional Information Networks) 37

Rising Middle Class | 23/04/2015 | © SWITZERLAND GLOBAL ENTERPRISE

Example Indonesia: The food and beverage opportunity The food and beverage market will grow at a CAGR of 11%

Food and beverage market size 2013-2014 90 80

72.9

Growth 11%

Key trends Forecast

81.0

billion US$

70

 Meanwhile, the younger generation’s health consciousness is becoming increasingly significant, enabling the introduction of e.g. nutritional and vitamin enhanced products

60 50

40

 The popularity of Western cuisine is growing, opening up for increased demand for wheat and dairy products

30 20

 As modern retail is spreading to an increased number of islands and cities in the country, e.g. Makassar and Medan, it presents an opportunity to reach even more consumers

10 2013

2014

Food and beverage industry Indonesia 2014-2018 CAGR 2014-2018 Food consumption

7.6%

Soft drink sales

9.3%

Alcoholic beverages

9.0%

Mass grocery retail sales

10.7%

Source: PwC Analysis, Global Business Guide Indonesia, 38

 Due to increased food consumption and changing habits of the RMC, demand for fast and convenient food is growing, e.g. processed food and ready-to-drink products

Rising Middle Class | 23/04/2015 | © SWITZERLAND GLOBAL ENTERPRISE

Key take aways  Growth rates within the food and beverage industry is expected to be continuously high over the next few years, with all trends pointing to a positive outlook  Although the Indonesian consumer is usually loyal to local brands, trust for international brands is high with regards to quality, especially concerning baby and children food  A strength of the Indonesian market is its access to domestic agricultural commodities, e.g. palm oil, making additional imports unnecessary. Therefore, the country’s attractiveness is high for investors in food and beverage manufacturing and processing

Example Indonesia: The MEM opportunity Indonesian automotive Market will grow by a CAGR of 24%

Indonesian automotive market 2010-2016

Key trends Forecast *

# of million units

3.0

2.6

2.5 Production CAGR 24%

2.0 1.5 1.0

0.80.7

0.90.8

1.11.1

1.21.2

1.41.3

1.51.6

1.7

 Within automotive, LCGC** sales are increasing (double digit monthly growth since launch in Sept. 2013). In addition, Indonesia is aiming to pass Thailand as the lead ASEAN automotive producer

0.5 2010 2011 Domestic sales

2012 2013 2014 Domestic production

2015

2016

MEM industry Indonesia 2013-2025 Outlook

Industrial production (growth rate)

4.3%

2015: 5.5%

Automotive products export

4.2 billion USD

2015: 4.9 billion USD

Manufacturing output

2017: 18 billion USD 210 billion USD

 Mineral and metal processing investments are increasing due to a government ban on the export of unprocessed mineral ores since 2014. However, the overall effects for Indonesia are expected to involve heavy losses in trade and export revenues

Key take aways

2013

Investments in mineral and metal processing plants

 MEM is mainly driven by the growth of manufacturing in Indonesia (5.6% growth 2013) and the resulting demand for equipment, key industry sectors being automotive, heavy machinery, food & beverage, and electronics

2025: 900-950 billion USD

 The RMC not only drives key sector sales, but also manufacturing investments in these sectors. Both international and local brands are attracted to the profitable Indonesian manufacturing industry, by relatively low wages, local commodities and a large local consumer population  One key industry sector is automotive due to the expected high consumer expenditure. It is followed by growing sectors such as heavy machinery, food and beverage and electronics manufacturing, as well as mineral and metal processing  A common strategy, especially within electronics manufacturing, is to se up joint ventures between international brands and local manufacturers

* According to chairman of the automotive industry club of the Federation of Thai Industries (FTI), 2014 ** Low Cost Green Car – Indonesian car, sold at a relatively low price due to reduced luxury goods tax, with high percentage of domestically produced components and enhanced fuel efficiency Source: PwC Analysis, World Bank, WTO, PwC expert interviews, GAIKINDO, CIA World Factbook, OECD, Indonesian Energy & Mineral Ministry, Automotive Logistics, FTI - Federation of Thai Industries, MAPI - Manufacturers Alliance for Productivity and Innovation 39

Rising Middle Class | 23/04/2015 | © SWITZERLAND GLOBAL ENTERPRISE

3. SWISS CASE STUDIES AND MARKET ENTRY STRATEGIES Goals of this section: •

• •

Present case studies of Swiss companies that have already established themselves in the Rising Middle market Defining key success factors and challenges Defining factors necessary to consider in a market entry model

Introduction Swiss companies follow different strategies to develop Middle Class potential – Entrepreneurs try to combine the excellent product reputation with low-cost pricing strategies to enter the Rising Middle Class market. The challenge lies in assuring a world-class quality brand and an excellent know-how while ensuring an attractive “value for money” proposition.

Some best practice examples show interesting new approaches for entering Rising Middle Class markets and building up local business. Common features of all cases are the recognition of the high market potential of this consumer segment and its important impact in the medium term for the Swiss economy.

One case study shows that with the acquisition of new brands and companies in the middle segment business, one can enlarge the product range and portfolio with very attractive solutions for an attractive price. To benefit from the Rising Middle Class trend, this company combines the premium quality strategy with new low-cost brands. This enables the company to offer different solutions and to address consumer needs with less costly alternatives.

Another example from the MEM automotive industry shows, that Swiss companies profit from the high growth in car production in Indonesia. The Rising Middle Class offers new opportunities because these consumers can afford a car in the price range of about 10’000 CHF. With this growth a lot of Swiss MEM companies profit from this new consumer trend in emerging markets. To build up a strong local presence is getting more and more important in these markets.

Other case studies clearly indicate growth opportunities in infrastructure and transportation, an industry sector more suitable for bigger companies. But also small and medium sized companies take advantage e.g. in the MEM sector or the food industry. Their market entry strategy is based on a step-by-step approach that allows to gradually learn and capture business potential.

The success factors in entering Rising Middle Class markets are an intelligent brand positioning with a reputation for quality and low-cost offerings. Companies have to challenge their existing business models and concentrate resources and capacities on high growth markets.

Not all Swiss SMEs will have the strength to go alone. They should connect and engage with other Swiss companies in the market to offer better solutions, learn from each other and bear in mind the financial resources necessary to build up local presence.

41

Rising Middle Class | 23/04/2015 | © SWITZERLAND GLOBAL ENTERPRISE

Example Market Expansion Services – DKSH

Company profile

Market + opportunity

   

•

Industry: Market Expansion Services (MES) Employees: 27’600 (worldwide) Location: 720 in Asia Pacific, 30 in Europe and the Americas Net Sales 2014: CHF 9.8bn

• •

Market strategy • •

•

DKSH, headquartered in Switzerland, is a company with a tradition of doing business in and with Asia for 150 years DKSH helps companies to grow their business in new and existing markets. Our complete portfolio of services is integrated and tailored to the needs of our business partners. DKSH helps them grow with an unrivalled pan-Asian network, long-term relationships, plus in-depth knowledge of industries and local markets.

DKSH drives a clear strategy for growth to continuously increase its market share and enable sustainable profitable growth as the company helps its business partners expand their businesses

Source: Interviews 42

Rising Middle Class | 14/01/2015 | © SWITZERLAND GLOBAL ENTERPRISE

Growing middle classes: Growth in consumption is being driven by an increasing population, declining unemployment rates and growing middle classes that have more disposable income Increasing intra-regional trade, especially in Asia: Exports between leading emerging markets are another megatrend that is facilitating global growth in Market Expansion Services Trend toward outsourcing: Confronted by fiercer competition, companies have begun to focus increasingly on their core competencies. In the process, they are outsourcing more links in their value chain, which is driving again demand for integrated Market Expansion Service providers

«The rising middle class is one of the key growth drivers for DKSH» Dr. Joerg Wolle, President + CEO, DKSH Holding

«The demand for healthcare products and medical solutions in particular will rise due to the growing middle class in Asia

»

Dr. Joerg Wolle, President + CEO, DKSH Holding

Example Automotive – Autoneum Holding AG

Company profile

Market + opportunity

 Industry: Automotive/acoustic and thermal management solutions for vehicles  Employees: > 10’000 (worldwide)  Location: 50 (locations ) production sites in over 20 countries  Net Sales 2014: CHF 1’955 Mio.

• • • • • •

Market Strategy • •

• • •

The worldwide share of the middle class is expected to more than double by 2030, from 2bn to 5bn people, according to studies.

Car manufacturers were among the first to move production to Asia. Therefore, suppliers moved along with them and now benefit from strong growth in this region.

Rising Middle Class markets in South America and South Africa have also been developed, but currently struggle due to low economic growth.

In Europe countries like Turkey, Poland and Czech Republic are of particular interest for Autoneum.

A strong presence in these markets as well as a very high customer focus are a MUST for Autoneum.

Source: Interviews 43

Rising Middle Class | 23/04/2015 | © SWITZERLAND GLOBAL ENTERPRISE

Rising Middle Class markets become of interest to Autoneum as soon as individuals can afford cars of CHF 10’000 The RMC customer group in Asia is attractive as cars are considered to be a “status symbol” Global growth rates for car production are forecast at 4% p.a., with Asia being a key driver Growth targets for Autoneum in Asia: ~20% p.a Key success factors for Autoneum: innovation, global presence, and cost leadership Car manufacturers require suppliers to be located in the proximity of their production sites, maximally 500–600 km

«Our key success factors are innovation, global presence, and cost leadership.

»

Martin Hirzel, CEO Autoneum Holding AG

«The necessity of local production sites makes us less volatile to exchange rate fluctuations.

»

Martin Hirzel, CEO Autoneum Holding AG

Example Medtech – Straumann AG, Basel

Company profile

Market + opportunity

   

•

Industry: Medtech / Dental Implantology Employees: 2’400 (worldwide) Location: present in over 70 countries Revenue 2013: CHF 680 Mio.

• • •

Focus on markets with a RMC on a long-term view. No expectations of earnings in the short-term.

An early presence is key in order to build-up customer relationships.

Knowhow transfer to end customers (dentists) for understanding quality of products is a long-term sales process.

The online marketing or business is widely used for repeat orders.

It is not very successful to find new customers, as products need initial knowhow transfer and training.

Market Strategy • •

• • • •

Multi-brand strategy, not necessarily only for low cost markets but also for the increasingly price sensitive European market.

Acquisition of low cost brands and marketed independently under different company name.

Partly synergy in sales channels. Dependent on country and market situation.

Cost optimization by cooperating with distributors and offering them training and excellence support.

Knowhow transfer to end customers (dentists) for understanding quality of products is a long-term sales process.

Future challenge will be, to market the “premium” and “economy” product line without interfering with each other.

Source: Interviews 44

Rising Middle Class | 23/04/2015 | © SWITZERLAND GLOBAL ENTERPRISE

«In these markets, an average income as of USD 30’000.– is of interest for the Straumann brand.

«We need to be in those

Heinz Thuering, Manager Strategic Projects + Alliances, Straumann AG

markets early, in order to build-up customer relationships in form of training and knowhow.

»

»

Heinz Thuering, Manager Strategic Projects + Alliances, Straumann AG

Example MEM – Rieter AG

Company profile

Market + opportunity

   

•

Industry: MEM / Textile Machinery Employees: 5’000 (worldwide) Location: present with 18 production plants in 10 countries Revenue 2013: CHF 1’035.3 Mio. (turnover)

• •

Market Strategy •

To shift manufacturing and facilities to where the customers are, resp. are growing. Size of the market is crucial. Either very big domestic market and/or market that is also exporting

•

Indonesia is a focus market due to size of population alone. This creates an increasing local demand.

•

Besides that, Indonesia is the fourth largest buyer of textile machines after China, Turkey and India.

Source: Interviews 45

Rising Middle Class | 23/04/2015 | © SWITZERLAND GLOBAL ENTERPRISE

In Indonesia the increase in per capita consumption of fibers/year is currently 7kg/year (compared to Europe 15kg/y and US 20kg/y).

Customer group is selective for what to spend the money. In textiles, the spending goes for popular brands (high brand awareness).

Growth expectations are 30% by in the next 3-4 years.

«To be successful in Indonesia over time, the availability (and governmental support) of labour efficiency and labour skills will be key in our segment.

»

«An FTA between CH and Indonesia would certainly improve the situation.»

Example MEM – Sandmaster AG

Company profile    

Industry: MEM / Blasting Processes Employees: 40 (worldwide) Location: 2 own locations, machines in over 35 countries Revenue 2014: CHF 7Mio

Market + opportunity •

• • •

Market Strategy for Indonesia • • • • • •

Long-term investments in markets with a RMC. Production plant for basic technology machines for international market (export to end-users in Asia and headquarter Switzerland) Creating strategic advantage due to lower production costs Prioritizing Asia as future market with Indonesia as hub for ASEAN region.

Optimizing of supply chain in international direction.

Long-term marketing plan to educate the market (market development) resp. to raise the awareness for own products.

Source: Interviews 46

Rising Middle Class | 23/04/2015 | © SWITZERLAND GLOBAL ENTERPRISE

Indonesia is looking for European manufacturers. However, for Sandmaster products, there needs also to be a mindshift towards high quality equipment and automated manufacturing processes.

This is a long-term view.

Huge market in view of population.

Good hub location to internationalize business in the region and increase competitiveness.

Local production companies not or only limited active in many areas of technology

«Rise in demand of consumer goods will also rise the need in investment goods in the longer term.

«Nobody is waiting here

Erwin Spichtig, CEO, Sandmaster AG

for us. We have to go out and explain why they need a sandblasting machine

»

»

Erwin Spichtig, CEO, Sandmaster AG

Example MEM – Doppelmayr / Garaventa

Company profile

Market + opportunity

   

•

Industry: People Transportation Employees: 2’500 (worldwide) Location: installations in over 88 countries Revenue 2013: Euro 858 Mio (turnover)

• •

Market Strategy • •

• •

Currently promotion in Indonesia is focused on cable cars for mass transportation as well as Touristic attractions.

Establishing network with government in order to increase awareness for cable cars as solution for people mass transportation.

South East Asia is main focus among countries with a RMC, and within SEA Indonesia is most important one.

Knowhow transfer to governmental agencies in the provinces that cable cars are part of solution for their most essential people transportation infrastructure.

Source: Interviews 47

Rising Middle Class | 23/04/2015 | © SWITZERLAND GLOBAL ENTERPRISE

Increased spendings in tourism and transportation in the mid- to long-term.

Currently promotion in Indonesia focused on cable cars for mass transportation.

Market is challenging in view of investments in transportation is done by Government. The Operation of transporation system would be more professional and efficient when assigned to the private operators.

«We believe in the market even though it is a longterm view.»

Hans R. Jost Representative of Doppelmayr/Garaventa Indonesia

«Political situation can influence our business anytime.»

Hans R. Jost, Representative Doppelmayr/Garaventa Indonesia

Example Food – Kägi Söhne AG

Company profile

Market + Opportunity

 Industry: Food / Wafer and Biscuit Specialities  Employees: 100 (worldwide)  Location: present in 27 countries with two Representative Offices outside of Switzerland  Revenue 2013: n/a (turnover)

• • • • •

Market Strategy • •

• • • •

Asian markets have good potential mid- to long term (5-7 years).

Started concentrated business development in Asian markets about five years ago (with own Representative Office in the region since 2011).

Focus and channelling of resources on/to selected markets.

Put mid- to long term brand building targets above short term opportunities.

Constant challenge of being adaptive to new market needs and a growing national and international competition in a fast and creative way.

One recipe for all markets (cost optimization). Differentiation with type and size of packagings.

Source: Interviews 48

Rising Middle Class | 23/04/2015 | © SWITZERLAND GLOBAL ENTERPRISE

Growing consumer segment, even though consumers are very price sensitive.

Asian consumers are open for new «flavours» from Western countries.

Strong cultural habit of «giving gifts» is an additional market opportunity.

Confectionary products from Switzerland are well received.

Growing middle class with sufficient disposable income considers Kägi products to give themselves a «daily treat».

«The opening of an own Representative Office in Hong Kong has brought us a much better understanding of the Asian markets.

»

Peter Zehnder, SOO Kägi Söhne AG

«Plan sufficient time and investment for brand building.»

Peter Zehnder, SOO Kägi Söhne AG

Market strategies to tackle the global middle class: Different segment strategies might be necessary

Global segmentation – Success factors

High end / wealthy class

• • • • •

Differentiation with highest quality Leveraging “Swissness” to improve margins Utilization of latest technology and innovations Products have to be recognized as best solution Strong marketing and brand awareness

Middle Class Segment

• The right people, at the right time, in the right market • Understanding of market characteristics as well as cultural peculiarities • Invest in training and competence building to attract and retain good people

Low end / RMC

• Early movers can establish a foothold in developing markets • Offer different solutions and address consumer needs with less costly alternatives • Intelligent brand positioning with a reputation for quality at low cost

49

Rising Middle Class | 23/04/2015 | © SWITZERLAND GLOBAL ENTERPRISE

Segment strategies Premium product quality – Consumer goods with Swissness marketing and high service aspirations to deliver not only a product but a solution or lifestyle image. Consumers differentiate by buying extraordinary quality. More customers can afford Swiss quality and are willing to pay for it.

Pricing for RMC markets – with higher productivity, low cost production or local production Swiss companies compete against international brands and competitors. reliability, quality, value for money are key elements of this strategy. Different prices for different countries.

Low cost strategies – companies try to offer something truly affordable also for the lower income consumers with significant value for money. Companies need to rethink their value chains and seek for less costly solutions to get into the low income market. This approach often requires a multi-brand approach.

4. CONCLUSIONS FOR SME AND KEY TAKE AWAYS

Conclusions (1/2)

RMC segment has high growth potential

Strong shift of consumption to Asia

• The global middle class is expected to double in size within the next 10-15 years from today’s 2.5 billion to almost 5 billion by 2030. This growth is driven by Asia, Africa and South America • Global consumption is increasing as the middle class grows, resulting in an annual global consumption worth over US$ 9.5 trillion (in US$ PPP) • A large part of this consumption comes from the global middle class, accounting for 64% of total consumption and a value of approx. US$ 6.3 trillion p.a., of which US$ 3.1 trillion is consumed by the RMC

• After a shift of production capacity to Asia in the 1990s, the second decade of the millennium is now seeing a shift of consumption to this region. With 66% of all middle class consumers living in Asian countries by 2030, consumption is shifting to Asia • In particular products that serve as status symbols such as cars, smartphones, holidays, and watches will be in demand.

The typical RMC consumer is keen to show that they belong to the middle class • Among the Asian power houses, Indonesia is currently one of the fastest growing RMC countries, becoming the 5th largest market within the next 10 years

Go International: Rethink your strategy

Swiss companies are in a favourable position

• Swiss SMEs should increasingly focus their internationalization strategy on the growing middle class in order to benefit from this global growth potential • Capturing the benefits requires an increase in local production in RMC countries, but also investments into jobs in Switzerland in areas such as R&D, global key account management, supply chain management and tailored training + education • Switzerland is not expected to experience a new outsourcing wave and growth opportunities for Swiss companies outweigh the downside risks of higher competition by middle class markets

• Swiss companies will benefit from the excellent reputation of Swiss products and services, especially in a situation where more consumers will be able to afford them. Key benefiting industries are healthcare, MEM, food, ICT, but also financial services and education • The traditional key success factors of Swiss companies will play a vital role in RMC markets • Joint offerings and solutions instead of single product strategies will become ever more important to enable peer to peer learning

Note: The global understanding of a middle class is not comparable to that of the Swiss Federal Statistical Office, according to which households in Switzerland with a yearly income between CHF 92’000 – 200’000 belong to the middle class 51

Rising Middle Class | 23/04/2015 | © SWITZERLAND GLOBAL ENTERPRISE

Conclusions (2/2)

Opportunities

Risks

Life science / Medtech

• Strong spending growth, e.g. CAGR of 8.9% over the next years in key RMC countries • Currently large gap in spending levels between Western and emerging economies

• Low-cost strategies of emerging market players could threaten more expensive Swiss products / services

Food

• Millions of people will come out of poverty with the ability to afford higher quality products • Food producers can build on the stellar reputation of the Swiss brand and benefit from changes in demand

• Protectionism and global pressure on wealthy countries will rise • Growth of RMC could lead to a resource shortage and supply chain problems

MEM

• Millions of people will be able to afford a reasonably priced car • Increasing demand for high quality technology products with positive impact on OEMs and mechanical engineering firms

• High pressure on wage costs and productivity will remain and potentially increase • Innovation pressure as value-for-money products are in strong demand

ICT

• Internet connectivity and brand awareness drives the Rising Middle Class • Digital presence and mobile marketing will be even more important in these markets

• Local players are potentially better at understanding local demand and react to changes of taste in these fast-paced markets

Other Services

• In the coming years Asia will re-position itself and become the economic powerhouse • More sophisticated demand will also drive growth in industries such as tourism, financial services and education

• Low-cost companies may substitute Swiss products • Inter-Asian trade with high growth rates and FTAs makes it more difficult for Swiss producers to export

52

Rising Middle Class | 23/04/2015 | © SWITZERLAND GLOBAL ENTERPRISE

Key Success Factors for RMC Markets

1

Make RMC markets top of mind •

Management should evaluate whether or not to enter RMC markets

•

When entering these markets, management commitment and resource allocation is absolutely key

2

Define an intelligent market strategy •

RMC markets might require a dedicated (product) strategy to be competitive

•

Combine low-cost strategy with Swiss quality reputation and innovation and focus your resources

3

Demonstrate strong presence in the respective market •

Physical presence in the RMC market is absolutely key (“at least one full-time employee needed”)

•

Top management involvement and frequent travel is necessary

4

Make use of innovative new channels and Social Media • •

Don’t underestimate the high mobile penetration and the often very well connected population Use Social Media, Online-Communities and Online Channel to promote your products or services

5

Invest in education + training

53

•

Entering middle class markets is a long-term adventure and needs education and training

•

Learn over time and adapt to new market conditions

Rising Middle Class | 23/04/2015 | © SWITZERLAND GLOBAL ENTERPRISE

S-GE offerings • Workshops for the development or focusing of your internationalisation strategy - in general, for a region or a country • Individual and free-of-charge consultation meetings to discuss your specific questions • Independent and neutral consultation of your plans • Research, market information as well as business partner screening

• Various events giving insights into market and industry trends • Established network in over 70 countries for your facilitated access to international markets

APPENDIX

Examples of additional reports for further reading

PwC - Link

PwC - Link

PwC - Link

PwC - Link

PwC - Link

PwC - Link

55

Rising Middle Class | 23/04/2015 | Š SWITZERLAND GLOBAL ENTERPRISE

Examples of additional reports for further reading

Credit Suisse

KKR

OECD

Nielsen

World Bank

EY

56

Rising Middle Class | 23/04/2015 | Š SWITZERLAND GLOBAL ENTERPRISE