THE BLACK BOOK | current to 24 August 2021

R AY W H I T E N OW

Introducing Ray White Now, an insight to provide clarity to all our customers on what is happening in the market now.

If you are considering selling we explain how you can take advantage of the current conditions to achieve the best possible sales outcome.

The resilience of the New Zealand housing market has never been more evident than over the past three months. Most New Zealanders would be surprised at the level of activity and prices achieved, even though it has operated under restrictive operating conditions.

As Australasia’s largest real estate group, we are uniquely placed to provide our clients with the most relevant and timely information and data to assess current market activity and outlook. And as a family-owned and led business with 118 years of experience including operating through two world wars, the great depression and recessions, we know that we can deliver you the highest quality solutions in the current market.

C L I C K H E R E TO R E A D T H E L AT E S T I S S U E N OW

contents.

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Contents

Black Group Realty Ltd. Selling Principal

Heather Walton 021 432 167 heather.walton@raywhite.com

Inspire

Franchise Owner

Mark Bycroft 021 968 946 mark.bycroft@raywhite.com

Is The Housing Market Coming Off The Boil?

10 and 10 in 10 with Mark Thornton Down To Earth - The Evolution Of Terracotta Properties For Sale

Sales Manager

Jeff Tubman 0274 558 717 jeff.tubman@raywhite.com

Black Group Property Management.

General Manager

Mac Bycroft 021 223 6893 mac.bycroft@raywhite.com

Business Development Josh Smith 021 235 8802 josh.smith@raywhite.com

Ray White Epsom Ray White Matakana & Omaha Black Group Realty Ltd. Licensed (REAA 2008)

The Black Book is subject to copyright in its entirety and the contents may not be reproduced in any form, either in whole or in part, without written permission.

Opinions expressed in The Black Book are those of the contributors and not necessarily those of Black Group Realty Ltd or Ray White Epsom. No responsibility is accepted for unsolicited material.

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THE BLACK BOOK.

M IS S I NG O UT?

Get every issue, direct to your inbox Issue One | 22 April 2020

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inspire.

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THE BLACK BOOK.

Is The Housing Market

Coming Off The Boil?

Ashley Church shares his views on the state of the housing marketing in New Zealand.

Watching the Olympics reminds me that we Kiwis are a funny old lot when it comes to supporting national sport. In most disciplines, we’re happy just to see our teams participate and when we win, which we do more often than we should relative to our population, we celebrate with good grace and a humility which has traditionally been one of our more attractive cultural qualities.

Except when it comes to All Black rugby and Americas Cup yachting.

Where those two activities are concerned, we expect nothing less than demolition of the opposition. Such is our confidence in the superiority of our teams that simply winning isn’t enough. We have to wipe the field with the other side in a display of one-sided dominance, to be regarded as having “legitimately” won.

This trait is particularly pronounced with rugby where a win of anything less than 7 points can plunge the country into a period of garment tearing and introspection, accompanied by calls for the coach to be replaced and the team to be overhauled.

But this unusual trait isn’t just confined to sport. We also do it with the property market. Over the past 40 years, house prices across most parts of the country have broadly doubled every decade – a trend which has become so regular and predictable that those who have been around the market for a while now essentially take it for granted. So much so that, as with tight winning margins in All Black rugby, a slowdown in house price growth can generate negative headlines and warnings of pending doom in the property market when, by any reasonable analysis, the market is still strong.

We’re seeing it right now, with headlines that are talking about the market slowing. Such headlines sound worrying until you read the detail and discover that what they actually mean is that house prices are still going up, just not as quickly as they were a few months ago.

So what’s really happening? Are the measures taken by the Government and the Reserve Bank earlier this year starting to have an impact? Should we be concerned? Is the housing market coming off the boil?

“Over the past 40 years, house prices across most parts of the country have broadly doubled every decade.”

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“Even the All Blacks can have a bad game (by their own high standards) – but it’s their winning record, over time, against which we judge their historical success.”

The answer to the first and second question is almost certainly no – and the answer to the third will depend on where you are in the country. Let’s see if I can unpack what’s happening and bring some common sense to bear.

First up, you simply can’t judge the property market based on one-off data. The market is a cyclical beast and it’s only when we stand back from it and look at what it does in broad sweeps over months or even years that we truly get a sense of what it was doing at any given point in time. While the trend of the Kiwi property market has been upward for the past 40 years, it moves up and down in any given month – so using that momentary data as the basis for long term predictions is the pursuit of the foolish.

Secondly – and I can’t stress this enough – house prices are still going up! According to the latest OneRoof stats, the national median property value rose by “just” 5.5% over the past three months – and “just” 4.3% in Auckland over the same period.

The closing months of 2020 and the first few months of 2021 were extraordinary in terms of house price growth, and the factors which caused that to happen were unique. The current growth in house prices is more in line with what we might historically expect and rate of growth we were experiencing a few months ago was never going to be sustainable.

Finally, if you follow my property ramblings, you’ll know that I make a distinction between Auckland and the rest of the country. As a general rule, Auckland is about three years ahead of most of the rest of New Zealand and prices there were predicted to start increasing in 2020 after three years of being flat (which they did).

Conversely, most of the rest of New Zealand should have started to come off the boil in 2020 and stayed flat until around 2023/24. The fact that this hasn’t yet happened means that regional markets are currently defying market history and, in my opinion, they’re now overdue for their cyclic slowdown (which will have absolutely nothing to do with Government or Reserve Bank measure).

Even the All Blacks can have a bad game (by their own high standards) – but it’s their winning record, over time, against which we judge their historical success. n

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THE BLACK BOOK.

Ashley Church is a property commentator for OneRoof.co.nz.

Email him at ashley@nzemail.com

ten and ten, in ten with Mark Thornton

Getting an agent to sit still can be difficult, so we bribe them with coffee to spend ten minutes with us. This week we pulled Mark Thornton from Ray White Epsom aside to ask him ten personal, and ten professional questions.

Personal

What's your coffee order?

Flat white.

What song is on repeat on your playlist at the moment?

Hotel California - Eagles.

Which App do you spend the most time on?

Netflix.

Where do you think New Zealand's bestkept secret is?

Hahei – the hole in the rock.

How do you start each morning?

Throwing the kids out of bed.

If you could have coffee with anyone in the world, who would it be?

Richard Branson.

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THE BLACK BOOK.

Give us a TV show recommendation to binge-watch on a rainy day?

Peaky Blinders.

It's date night - where are you making a reservation for dinner?

Sails Restaurant.

If you were to win a reality TV show, which one would you have the best shot at winning?

The Chase.

Where in the world do you wish you could head to for a holiday?

Fiji.

Professional

What was your first job?

Bank teller.

What motivates you?

My family.

What did you want to be when you grew up?

Geologist.

Share with us your property must-have?

Water view.

Tell us the thing you love the most about working in real estate?

Meeting different people.

What do you hope you’ve achieved in five year’s time?

Chairman’s Elite.

Give us some advice to pass on to someone thinking about joining the industry?

Get a plan!

Tell us someone who inspires you?

My wife!

What would you consider to be your greatest achievement?

Raising two wonderful twins!

Million dollar question - how’s the market at the moment?

Awesome - so much opportunity. n

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THE BLACK BOOK.

DOWN TO THE EVOLUTION OF TERRACOTTA

Terracotta has always found a place Staying neutral in our homes, from the ubiquitous With their roots in the earth, terracotta shades can pots holding our herbs to handmade even work as a neutral in some instances, particularly bricks and fireplace tiles. But today, if your space is filled with natural light. terracotta is finding new life in the Try paler tones such as Resene Just Right, or Resene colours we use to decorate, bringing Bone on ceilings, trims and floors with bold wall shades of other colours, such as the red-brown of with it surprising versatility.

Resene Redwood, or Resene Swamp.

With a name meaning ‘baked earth’ in Italian, terracotta brings intrinsic warmth to any decor it’s part of, but its earthy origins also mean it pairs well with a range of other shades to create looks that are reminiscent of parched far flung lands, a refreshing oasis or simply a beautiful sunset.

Today’s terracotta shares some DNA with the peach tones of ‘Millennial pinks’ we loved a few years ago.

We’ve grown away from the delicate sorbets of those shades to duskier, deeper, earthier tones. But it’s worth noting that two still pair well, and a touch of shades such as Resene Shilo bring freshness to spicy shades like Resene Sunbaked.

For a lighter, cooler touch try Resene Just Right with the grey-blue of Resene Nepal.

Because terracotta covers a range of tones from dusky sunsets to cinnamon-toned browns, it is an extremely versatile colour, whether you use it as your main colour choice or for trims and accents. It works well with pinks, reds, blues, greens and creams, even mustard shades while greys and charcoals will add a modern, dramatic twist.

Wherever your design takes you, there is a shade of terracotta to suit.

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Different shades of green and white add freshness and brightness to these layered terracotta shades. The walls are Resene Apple Blossom, the floor is Resene Wax Flower and the door is Resene Sebedee. The floating shelf is Resene Quarter Tea and the stool is Resene Woodland. The storage box is Resene Gingko, the bowl is Resene Yuma, and the vase is Resene Just Right.

Project by Gem Adam.

Image by Wendy Fenwick.

Going natural Terracotta is definitely having a moment as a colour choice - and one reason is our ongoing enthusiasm for all things natural in our interior and exterior decorating.

Natural fibres and textures in your terracotta toned room, take it to a cool Bohemian place. Think natural linens, woven furnishings, flax, rattan, bamboo, rope and pale wood finishes to cool the colours down.

Stoneware and pottery ornaments, and fittings also emphasise the earthy theme To keep with the natural look, think about rougher, less polished finishes to walls, with a sponged or textured effect. Refresh everything with cool, colourwashed timber flooring in Resene Colorwood Whitewash or Resene Colorwood Rock Salt.

Terracotta is also extremely versatile when it comes to matching with neutral shades. The tone of the neutral you chose will amplify different characters of your terracotta.

Try oaty neutrals such as Resene Eighth Drought with spicy shades such as Resene Peru Tan, while bright whites will give a jolt of contrast to muted terracotta hues such as Resene Apple Blossom, particularly with touches of deep greens such as Resene Forest Green.

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THE BLACK BOOK.

Adding a layer of green - in plants, paint, fittings, or all of the above - to your terracotta and neutral combination will give your space a lush finish, like an oasis in the desert. Different greens can also lend the space a more autumnal feel, rather than the heat of summer.

“Terracotta is also extremely versatile when it comes to matching with neutral shades. The tone of the neutral you chose will amplify different characters of your terracotta.”

Some unexpected but impactful Resene colour combinations are:

Resene Mai Tai with Resene Cod Grey

Resene Korma with Resene Aubergine

Resene Twine with Resene Kashmir Blue

Resene Rusty Nail with Resene Planter

Travels in terracotta

Take it outside

To truly celebrate terracotta, think about adding graduated tonal layers in sunset shades, whether it’s just to one wall, or throughout your space, with furnishings, and decoration.

Terracotta shades are made for outdoor decorating, whether it’s stained wood, painted concrete, tiles or weatherboards.

You pick one shade such as Resene Sunbaked and play with different lighter terracotta hues for a layered effect. Or find complementary shades and paint in graduated stripes on a wall, starting with the darkest to lightest. You could even add a layer of deep blue such as Resene King Tide or Resene Twilight Zone to emulate the night sky against your desert sunset effect.

Warm shades of Resene Sunbaked, Resene Route 66 or Resene Swiss Caramel in a walled off space, with plenty of plants and an outdoor fire for a cosy outdoor entertaining area. Surround an outdoor bath with Resene Tacao and a bold blue such as Resene Wet n Wild for a touch of the tropics. Add golden accents with stained wood in Resene Colorwood Natural and pops of Resene Twisted Sister for a spot of sunshine any time of the year. n

Different colour combinations with terracotta can also take your interior to different countries around the world. Add bright blues and reds for a hint of Mexico, try pale blues, creamy whites and turquoise for a glimpse of Morocco and the Middle East, or try mustard yellows and dusky pinks for a nod to Indian style.

Sunbaked shades work well with natural fibres and woven furnishings for an exotic, well-travelled vibe. The wall is in Resene Sunbaked with the floor in Resene Napa.

Accents in Resene Sambuca, and Resene Rocky Mountain lock in the earthiness.

Project by Claudia Kozub.

Image by Melanie Jenkins.

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