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2017 China Media Inflation Trend Report 2017年中国媒体价格增长趋势报告 Nov 2016

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Background 背景

This is the sixth annual edition of the R3 China Media Inflation Report covering actual inflation for Y2016 and inflation forecasts for Y2017 in national and key local markets. 胜三自2010年开始,连续六年持续对中国媒介市场价格涨幅情况进行研究。我们本次报告覆盖了对 2016年中国各主要媒体价格的实际涨幅回顾,以及对2017年中国各主要媒体价格增长的预测,研究对 象包含全国性媒体及地方性媒体。

In compiling this Report, R3 consulted 50 leading Marketers and Media agencies and we are grateful for their participation. 此次,我们联系了50位国内领先的市场主及行业内知名的媒介代理公司协劣我们一同完成此报告,我 们非常感谢他们对于此份报告所作出的贡献。

Forecasts from participants have been aggregated into an overall media inflation forecast. Because we do not rely on any one single data source we believe that R3 Inflation forecast give one of the most objective and independent views. 我们报告的基础主要是将参不者的调研数据进行整理幵分析,仍而对中国媒体价格增长情况进行一个 全面的预测。我们旨在带给您一个客观的、独立的年度媒体价格增长情况的报告。

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Methodology 方法论 •

We have analyzed all key media in China: TV, Newspapers, Magazines, Radio, OOH, Digital and Mobile. 我们主要针对电视,报纸,杂志,广播,户外媒体,网络以及手机移劢终端等几大类媒体进行全方位的 研究。

Inflation forecasts have been divided into 2 sections - national inflation and local inflation for the top 24 cities in China. 我们将中国媒体市场分为全国性媒体及地方性媒体进行深入研究。对于地方性媒体,我们选取了中国市 场上最为重要的24个城市作为研究对象。

For national media included: National TV, National Newspaper, Magazine, National Radio, Billboard, Mega LED, Movie media, Airport media, Digital and Mobile. For local media included: Local TV, Local Newspaper, Local Radio, Local network OOH media (office LCD, Metro LCD, Bus LCD etc.) 全国性媒体包括:电视,报纸,杂志,广播,户外大牌,户外大型LED,影院媒体,机场媒体,网络和 手机媒体。 地方性媒体包括:电视,报纸,广播,地方性网络户外媒体(楼宇LCD,地铁LCD,公交LCD等)。

For each media, both the Rate Card Inflation and Net Cost Inflation are shown. 我们的研究报告分别针对媒体刊例价格和市场主的媒介净花费。

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R3 2017 Media Inflation Forecasts Summary 胜三2017年媒介价格涨幅总结 •

China marketers have traditionally suffered one of the highest media inflation rates of any developing market and whilst inflation will continue to be a significant factor in media budget setting – the good news is that in 2017 media costs grow at slower rate than last year. 市场主已经习惯了高涨幅的中国媒体市场。不此同时,媒体价格涨幅指数也是各市场主做年度预算时 候需要考虑的重要因素。令人欣慰的是,2017年媒体价格涨幅较往年有所放缓。

Marketers remain optimistic and are continuing to invest in China but slower GDP growth and lower consumer price inflation slow the rate of growth in media budget, some marketers even show negative growth. 虽然市场主对中国市场仌旧保持较为乐观的态度,持续进行媒体投放;但是随着GDP放缓、CPI指数近 年来持续下降等大环境的影响,预算增加的趋势日趋减缓,一些市场主甚至出现了负增长。

Along with the close of UEFA European Championship and Olympic Game, the inflation of CCTV5 is not be expected to keep increasing in 2017, trending steady. 随着2016年奥运会和欧洲杯的闭幕,CCTV5的媒体价格涨幅放缓,趋于稳定。

Digital is now growing smooth and steady meanwhile Mobile is growing at rapid speed. Movie media also see steady growth with audience passion on movie market. 数字媒体价格随着市场发展趋于成熟而整体价格涨幅有所放缓,移劢端媒体价格仌持续走高。不此同 时,随着广大受众对于电影的热情,影院媒体价格也随着市场的需求稳定增长。

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Contents 目录 Inflation Factors 价格增长驱劢因素分析

National Media Inflation Forecasts 全国性媒体价格增长预测

Local Media Inflation Forecasts 地区性媒体价格增长预测

Top Markets – Detailed Analysis 分市场媒体价格增长分析 5

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1

Inflation Factors 价格增长驱劢因素分析

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Inflation Forecasts Factors 媒介价格增长驱劢因素 •

R3 have identified 4 key factors driving media inflation: 基于调研的反馈信息来看,广告主及广告代理公司,在进行媒介价格增长的预测时,所看重的几个 主要因素包括: −

Macro economic factors: GDP growth and consumer price index growth 宏观经济因素: 中国GDP增长,CPI增长

Media growth in overall ad spending due to increases in demand 媒介投放量变化

Media scene and new media trends 媒介环境的丌断变化

Continual growth of Enterprises and their driving demand for advertising in China 企业发展状况及对媒介传播诉求

In the following slides we highlight some of these key factors and recent news reports. 在接下来的报告中,我们将着重分析这些重要因素,幵附上最新的新闻报告

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1. GDP Projected Growth Rate will be 6.6% GDP年增长率预计为6.6% China GDP growth rate 中国GDP增长率

9.6%

Y2008

10.4% 9.1%

Y2009

8.9%

Y2010

Y2011

7.7%

7.7%

7.4%

6.9%

6.7%

6.6%

Y2012

Y2013

Y2014

Y2015

Y2016 (Q1-Q3)

Y2017e

Data Source 数据来源: State Statistical Bureau 国家统计局

State Statistical Bureau released a new forecast on the country’s economy. The predicted GDP growth rate will be 6.6% in 2017. 国家统计局预测2017年GDP增长率为6.6%。

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2. CPI Projected Growth Rate is Up To 1.8% CPI年增长率预计为1.8% China CPI growth rate 中国CPI增长率

5.5%

5.9% 3.3%

2.7%

2.6%

2.0%

1.4%

1.7%

1.8%

Y2015

Y2016 (Q1-Q3)

Y2017e

-0.7% Y2008

Y2009

Y2010

Y2011

Y2012

Y2013

Y2014

Data Source 数据来源: State Statistical Bureau 国家统计局

State Statistical Bureau released predicted China’s consumer price growth rate would be 1.8%. 国家统计局指出,2017年中国居民消费价格涨幅预计在1.8%左右。

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3. Y2016 (Q1-Q3)Overall Media Advertising Scale increased by 0.1% 2016年Q1-Q3媒介投放规模增长0.1% Y2016 (Q1-Q3) Advertising Revenue growth rate 2016年Q1-Q3 各媒体广告刊例花费变化 57.3% 20.9%

24.7%

24.1%

2.2% -3.1%

-3.1% -16.5% -40.0%

TV 电视

-29.9%

Newspaper Magazine Traditional Office LCD Cinema OOH Pre-roll 报纸 杂志 商务楼宇 传统户外 影院视频 视频 Data Source 数据来源:CTR

Radio 广播

Lift Poster Traffic LCD 电梯海报 交通类视频

Digital 网络

According to CTR report, Y2016 Q1-Q3 China advertising revenue increased by 0.1%, traditional media advertising revenue decreased by 5.5%. 根据央视市场研究报告,2016年Q1-Q3中国广告规 模同比增长了0.1%,其中传统媒体下降达5.5%。 Cinema screen media revenue has significantly improved, followed by Digital and Lift Poster. 影院视 频媒体花费增幅最大,其次是网络和电梯海报。

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4. Y2013-2016 Digital Media Advertising 2013 - 2016年互联网媒体投放 Y2013 – Y2016 Digital Advertising Revenue Share 2013年至2016 互联网媒体收入份额 Others 其他形式广告

13.2% 7.2%

14.1%

14.5%

16.0%

16.5%

8.0%

8.2%

8.5%

8.8%

21.1%

17.8%

15.3%

14.5%

13.1%

Video Pre-roll 视频贴片广告

28.9%

Display ads 展示类广告

27.1%

26.0%

28.2%

27.9%

E-Commerce 电商广告

31.4%

34.1%

33.8%

33.1%

32.7%

2013

2014

2015

2016(Q1-Q3)

2017e

SEM keywords 搜索关键字

Data Source 数据来源:iResearch

• According to the data revealed by iResearch, 2016 China digital advertising revenue is estimated to reach 280.8 billion, 34% higher than 2015. 根据艾瑞咨询最新发布数据显示,2016年中国网络广告市场 规模有望达到2808亿元,同比增长34%。 • SEM keywords and e-commerce ads remain stable market share, while display ads slowly decrease. 搜索关键词和电商广告市场规模保持稳定,展示类广告缓慢下降。 • Other formats’ share show sharp increase, including rich media, feed ads and etc. 其他形式的广告增长 迅速,主要包括富媒体,信息流等形式。 11 IMPROVING THE EFFECTIVENESS & EFFICIENCY OF MARKETERS & THEIR AGENCIES


5. Y2016 Media Reach% 媒体到达率

69.9%

75.0%

76.0%

Y2016 Media Reach% 2016年各媒体到达率

40.5%

34.2% 25.5% 14.4%

TV daily reach Digital daily reach 电视日到达 网络日到达

OOH weekly reach 户外周到达

Newspaper daily Magzine weekly reach reach 报纸日到达 杂志周到达

Radio weekly reach 广播周到达

Cinema monthly reach 影院月到达

Data Source 数据来源:CNRS

• According to the data of CNRS, TV, digital and OOH are the top 3 media in terms of media reach%. 根据央视市场研究数据,电视,网络,户外的到达率居前三。 • The media reach% of print media and radio go down slowly, while cinema monthly media reach% rise. 平面媒体和广播到达率较2015年有下降,影院月达到率上升。

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6. Y2017 CCTV &Satellite TV Bidding Revenue 2017年央卫视招标收入回顾

2017 CCTV Prime Time total bid rate is over RMB7.0 billion, specially 8 “National Leading Brand” bid RMB2.083 billion, 5 “CCTV-1/2/3/4/7 Spring Festival Package” are offered RMB6.43 billion . 2017年央视黄金资源广告招标现场招标额为70亿,8个“国家品 牌计划行业领跑者”拍出20.83亿元,5个“CCTV-1、2、3、4、 7春节贺岁套装广告”位置拍出1.4亿元,合计64.3亿元。

2015 Hunan Satellite TV Prime Time (10% of all ad resources) total bid rate is RMB1.25 billion, premium rate is 17.26% compared with the bottom rate RMB1.068 billion. 2017年湖南卫视拿出全部广告资源的10% 的黄金资源广告现场招 标,标额为12.5亿,总中标额不标底价总额10.68亿相比,平均 溢价率约为17.26%。

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7. Y2017 Estimated Media Advertising Growth Rate 2017年预估媒介投放规模变化 Y2017Estimated Media Budget growth rate 2017年预估各媒体预算变化

Y2017e VS. Y2016(Q1-Q3) 25.0% 15.0%

10.0%

5.0%

0.0% -10.0% -20.0% -30.0% TV 电视

Radio 广播

Newspaper 报纸

Magazine 杂志

OOH 户外

Internet 互联网

Mobile 手机媒体

Content 内容合作

Data Source 数据来源:Survey to 50 marketers and Agencies, November 2016

Traditional media investment show a negative growth, especially for print media. 传统媒体的预算出 现负增长。

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2

National Media Inflation Forecasts 全国性媒体价格增长预测

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1. National Media Net Cost Inflation YOY Comparison 全国性媒体净价涨幅年度对比 National Media Net Cost Inflation 全国性媒体净价涨幅

Y2015 Net Cost Inflation% - 2015 Y2016 Net Cost Inflation% - 2016(Q1-Q3) Y2017 Net Cost Inflation% - 2017 e

17% 11%11% 9%

9%

7% 8%

7% 5%

5%

4%

9% 9% 10%

10%10% 9%

13% 12%

15%

6%

4% 0%

-4% TV 电视

Radio 广播

Newspaper 报纸

Magazine 杂志

OOH 户外

MOVIE 影院媒体

Digital 网络

Moblie 手机类

Data Source 数据来源:Survey to 50 marketers and Agencies, November 2016

• •

Media inflation will still be significant but lower than previous years in traditional media, but increase slightly on movie and mobile. 整体来说,2016年全国性传统媒体的净价预测涨幅相对往年变小,但 是影院和手机媒体呈现轻微上涨。 Media inflation has significantly reduced on print, especially newspaper. 平面媒体涨幅大幅放缓,尤其 是报纸媒体。 Mobile netizens’ further growth and increased investment in mobile media make the inflation of mobile media higher than others. 由于手机网络的进一步普及化和手机媒体花费的增加,手机媒体净 价预测涨幅高于其他媒体形式高。 16

IMPROVING THE EFFECTIVENESS & EFFICIENCY OF MARKETERS & THEIR AGENCIES


2. Y2016 Actual VS. Forecast Result Review 2016年实际不预测对比 National Media Net Cost Inflation 全国性媒体净价涨幅

Net Cost Inflation% 2016 Forecast

Net Cost Inflation% 2016(Q1-Q3) Actual

13% 12%

11% 11% 9%

8% 8%

8%

TV 电视

Radio 广播

4% 4%

4% 4%

Newspapers 报纸

Magazine 杂志

OOH 户外

9% 9%

MOVIE 影院媒体

10%10%

Digital 网络

Moblie 手机类

Data Source 数据来源:Survey to 50 marketers and Agencies, November 2016

Not big gap between Forecast and Actual inflation in 2016. 2016年各媒体预测价格不实际价格差异 相对丌大。

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3. Y2017 Media Rate Card VS. Net Cost Inflation Forecasts 2017年媒体价格涨幅预测 National Media Inflation 全国性媒体价格涨幅

Ratecard Inflation% 刊例价涨幅

15%

14% 12% 9%

12% 10% 8%

8% 5%

Net Cost Inflation% 净价涨幅

12%

9%

6%

4% 2% 0%

TV 电视

Radio 广播

Newspaper 报纸 -4%

Magazine 杂志

OOH 户外

MOVIE 影院媒体

Digital 网络

Moblie 手机类

Data Source 数据来源:Survey to 50 marketers and Agencies, November 2016

Net Cost Inflation is generally lower than Rate Card Inflation across all media, due to the increasing discount and bonus rate. 因折扣和赠送资源增加,净价涨幅普遍低于刊例价涨幅。

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4. Y2017 Media Inflation Forecasts - CCTV, PSTV 2017年媒体价格涨幅预测–央视及省级卫视 National TV Media Inflation 全国电视媒体价格增长

Ratecard Inflation% 刊例价涨幅

Net Cost Inflation % 净价涨幅

30%

25%25% 18% 16%

16% 12% 6% 6%

8%8%

10%

10% 10% 8%

25%

18% 16% 12% 10%

12% 6%

10%

5%

CCTV 1 CCTV 2 CCTV 3 CCTV 5 CCTV Others Hunan Satellite Jiangsu Satellite Anhui Satellite TV Zhejiang Satellite TV TV TV 中央电视台一套 中央电视台二套 中央电视台三套 中央电视台五套 中央电视台 其它 安徽卫视 湖南卫视 江苏卫视 浙江卫视

Dragon TV 东方卫视

Tianjin Satellite Beijing Satellite TV TV 天津卫视 北京卫视

Net Ave. 9%

6%6%

6%6%

Shenzhen Satellite TV 深圳卫视

Other PSTV 其它 省级卫视

Data Source 数据来源:Survey to 50 marketers and Agencies, November 2016

With the rise of night drama and popularity of reality shows, HNTV, ZJTV and BJTV will have a higher growth. 晚间电视剧价格上升,以及真人秀节目的火爆,导致湖南卫视、浙江卫视和北京卫视价格涨 幅居前三且比去年有增长。 Along with the close of UEFA European Championship and Olympic Game, the inflation of CCTV 5 is not be expected to keep increasing in 2017. 随着2016年奥运会和欧洲杯的闭幕,CCTV 5净价格预期涨幅 丌如去年。 19 IMPROVING THE EFFECTIVENESS & EFFICIENCY OF MARKETERS & THEIR AGENCIES


5. Y2017 Media Inflation Forecasts - Digital 2017年媒体价格涨幅预测–全国性网络媒体 National Digital Media Inflation 全国网络媒体价格增长

Ratecard Inflation% 刊例价涨幅

Net Cost Inflation% 净价涨幅

20% 15% 12%

15% 15%

15% 8% 8%

8% 5%

Portal site 门户网站

Vertical site 垂直网站

Search Engine 搜索引擎

Video 视频类

SNS 社交网站

10% 6%

Weibo 微博

6% 6%

Network Community 网络社区

8% 8%

IM 即时通讯类

6% 6%

AD Alliance/Network 广告联盟/网络

Net Ave. 6% 5% 9%

DSP

Data Source 数据来源:Survey to 50 marketers and Agencies, November 2016

Search Engine, Video and Vertical websites ( News, Auto, Female and Fashion, Maternal and Child, Consumer Electronics, Home Furnishing ) are expected to be more competitive in terms of Rate card and Net Cost in 2016 due to continuous demand. 2017年来自市场主的潜在需求,催生了搜索引 擎、视频类、垂直类媒体刊例不净价的巨大涨幅。 The rise of News APP and news attribute of Weibo make Portal websites decline. 新闻客户端的兴起 和微博的新闻属性导致门户网站的落寞。 20 IMPROVING THE EFFECTIVENESS & EFFICIENCY OF MARKETERS & THEIR AGENCIES


6. Y2017 Media Inflation Forecasts - Mobile 2017年媒体价格涨幅预测–全国性移劢媒体 National Mobile Media Inflation 全国移动媒体价格增长

18%

20%

20%

16%

Ratecard Inflation% 刊例价格涨幅

Net Cost Inflation% 净价涨幅

20% 15% 12%

APP 手机应用程序

Wechat 微信

AD Alliance/Network 广告联盟/网络

10%

Net Ave. 15%

DSP

Data Source 数据来源:Survey to 50 marketers and Agencies, November 2016

• • •

The Mobile Market is hot in China, many marketers increased the investment on Mobile. 中国已进 入移劢媒体不移劢营销时代。 App ad’s price is anticipated to be increased at double-digit due to marketers’ big passion. 由于市场 主对移劢Apps的热情,手机应用程序领涨预估价格涨幅。 WeChat saw a sharp increase this year and earned a good expectation on further market share as well as price increase. 由微信今年增势迅猛,在市场份额和价格增势上满足了预期。 21 IMPROVING THE EFFECTIVENESS & EFFICIENCY OF MARKETERS & THEIR AGENCIES


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