What's on the Table?

WHAT’S ON THE TABLE? FORESIGHTS ON FOOD IN 2030, INCLUDING IMPLICATIONS AND STRATEGIES FOR LOBLAWS

HALA BEISHA JANICE DE JONG DONNA KLAIMAN ROXANNE NICOLUSSI JENNY WHYTE

This dossier is a collection of work created for Foresight Studio SFIN 6018-19 for Fall/Winter 2015-2016.

Submitted to Suzanne Stein and Stuart Candy March 2, 2016

This work is licensed under the Creative Commons Attribution-Non Commerical-ShareAlike 4.0 International License To view a copy of this license, please visit: http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-sa/4.0/

WHAT’S ON THE TABLE? FORESIGHTS ON FOOD IN 2030, INCLUDING IMPLICATIONS AND STRATEGIES FOR LOBLAWS

HALA BEISHA JANICE DE JONG DONNA KLAIMAN ROXANNE NICOLUSSI JENNY WHYTE

Food is our common ground, a universal experience.

James Beard

TABLE OF CONTENTS INTRODUCTION APPENDICES

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114

BIOS 112 CONCLUSION

TIME MACHINE

108

CLIENT PROFILE

102

STRATEGIES

10

SCANNING

82

SCENARIOS

58

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Image source: Lernert & Sander for De Volkskrant, http://lernertandsander.com/cubes/

INTRODUCTION “The real act of discovery consists not in finding new lands but seeing with new eyes.�

Marcel Proust Food preparation, consumption and enjoyment is our common ground. It is an inextricable part of the human experience.

It is part of our cultural identity. It is how we express ourselves. It is a key part of how we choose to connect with others.

Throughout history, hunter-gatherer societies and nomadic settlements were in close proximity to areas where humans could access food. Spice routes that linked parts of Asia, Europe and the Middle East traded in much coveted food items.

Cities directly on these routes enjoyed tremendous economic prosperity. Viewed as a key and vital resource, wars were fought over access to food. Cutting off food supplies during wars was and is still an effective technique to conquer lands and their people.

FOOD AND SOCIETY Every day and around the world people are preoccupied with food. People from all walks of life and ethnic backgrounds come together to buy, prepare and enjoy food together. It is a rich and varied aspect of our lives that weaves together elements of the past with the demands of the present.

Food is the common thread that brings people together in celebration and mourning. Business deals are signed and political enemies negotiate compromises at the dinner table. Food is the one equalizer where people come together to enjoy elaborate tapas in Spain, a five-course meal in Paris or a simple chow mein at a food stand in Beijing.

Against a backdrop of globalization, urbanization, and increased population growth, a number of critical issues have been brought to the fore. Current factors that impact the food scene include: the effects of genetically modified foods, industrial farming practices, food security issues; food inequality despite large production capacities, profit making and distribution practices; and the politicization of food labelling.

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INTRODUCTION

CURRENT FOOD ISSUES Despite the abundance of food in Canada today, there has never been a time in our history when there is so much at stake for the health and the sustainability of the planet. Questions being debated on the world stage and in cities across Canada include: Is access to food a right? Who controls food production, policies, and companies? What is the role of ordinary citizens? Do people have a say in the quality of food? What are the long-term health implications of consuming certain types of food? What is the moral obligation of companies and private citizens? How do we come together to celebrate our different food tastes and heritage? How do we provide food to those without access?

DOSSIER LAYOUT AND THE BIGGER PICTURE These are a number of the questions that linger in the background as this compilation of work sets out to examine the future of food in 2030. This document sets out to identify drivers of change in the external environment that have an impact on emerging food trends. It is these food trends that will shape consumers purchasing decisions and influence what is on the table. The report is titled “What’s on the Table” to illustrate the potential diversity of food options and how they might be part of the dining table of the future.

Rich contextual information generated by trend scanning then led to the generation of four different probable scenarios using foresight methodology. From the scenarios, specific informed statements are drawn to create an immersive experience referred to as a “time machine”. Finally, an intricate weaving of the findings of each section was used to inform the strategic discussion of the key stakeholder. For the purpose of this report, our stakeholder is Loblaws, a key purveyor of food items with locations across the country and the resources and track record to shape the future.

It is important to note that the act of foresighting and scenario planning is not an exact science but an art. The main objective is not to provide definitive answers but to inform Loblaws’ strategic discussion to create capacity. Inayatullah (2008) states: “At a deeper level futures thinking can create capacity. It is not about predicting correctly or getting the strategy right, but about enhancing our confidence to create the future we desire.”

REFERENCE Inayatullah, S (2008). Six pillars: Futures thinking for transforming. Foresight 10 (1) 4-21.

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There is no sincerer love than the love of food.

George Bernard Shaw

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Image source: http://torontolife.com/food/fancy-new-st-clair-west-loblaws/

ABOUT LOBLAWS

To better understand a client, it is important to bring into focus certain aspects of that organization’s operation and strategic direction. Engagement in strategic conversations with a client, as part of any scenario planning exercise, is an ongoing process that allows for the incorporation of new ideas and encourages organizational learning and adaptation.

This section highlights key points of interest that point to Loblaws’ heritage of embracing innovation and their willingness to invest in the changes needed to pounce on emerging consumer trends and demographic shifts. Our understanding of Loblaws is a key part of the dossier that lingers in the background of our foresight process. It is important to note that Loblaws operates a number of different stores in its diverse portfolio that includes No Frills and Price Chopper to name a few. The document will look at the totality of the Loblaws offering with respect to food.

HISTORY Loblaws was founded in 1919 by Pringle Loblaw and J. Milton Cork . At the time they introduced a new concept in grocery retailing, combining self-serve and cash-and-carry. Customers no longer had to wait for a clerk to fetch items from behind a store counter. Loblaw and Cork were told it would never work. Charles B. Shields, another prominent Toronto grocer, soon joined the partnership. Sales grew as customers took advantage of better quality goods at lower prices. Within a decade, the Loblaw chain has grown to over 70 stores in Ontario alone. It is this entrepreneurial spirit that allowed the company to expand to become Canada’s leading food and pharmacy purveyor.

In 1978, Loblaws introduced No Name products. With their distinctive yellow packaging and bold lettering these products offer savings over name brands while matching their quality. In the 80’s Loblaws went on to introduce President’s Choice products. These gained a devoted following among shoppers and the Insider’s Report was launched. It was filled with recipes and product recommendations.

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ABOUT LOBLAWS

This was closely followed by the launch of President’s Choice Green Products that introduced more than 100 ‘environmentally friendly’ and ‘body friendly’ items in 1989. Loblaws went on to expand into the mortgage business through the successful introduction of PC Financial (1996). Clothing brand Joe Fresh made its debut (2006) and the only thing missing from the fashionable line was the high price.

Over the years Loblaws worked to reduce its carbon footprint and introduced a supplier code conduct. This was followed by supporting the use of renewable energy in many of its stores.

Image above: First Loblaws at 511 Yonge Street, 1919.

Image source: http://www.thedrake.ca/blog/2012/05/vintagetoronto-historic-snapshots/

The Guiding Star program was introduced in 2012 allowing consumers to make better food choices. In 2015, the company highlighted its purpose to “Live Life Well”– which was ultimately anchored in the health and wellbeing of Canadians. This is especially true after Loblaws bought out Shoppers Drug Mart to become a nutrition, health and wellness provider.

THE EVOLUTION OF THE BRAND - LOOKING AHEAD Greater integration of wellness services There is an even greater need for better wellness options with the growing number of Baby Boomers, and the offloading of medical services and a growing need for preventative healthcare options.

Loblaws and Shoppers stores offer access to services that allow for improved patient care.

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Building of trust and one on one relationships with customers In an increasing number of stores, in-house dietitians educate and advise customers to maintain or improve their nutrition, often in partnership with store pharmacists. The focus is on building trust and customer relationships through services and loyalty programs.

Consolidation of two powerful loyalty programs The PC Rewards system is consolidated with Shopper’s Drug Mart Optimum program. The integration of the two programs has resulted in the creation of a highly personalized loyalty program that sends offers digitally via a smartphone app and adjusts to the different life stages in a customer’s life (e.g.: a child, an aging parent or embarking on a new commitment for wellness). PC Plus is to become Canada’s first integrated wellness loyalty platform, supported by loyalty and sales data.

Gambling on new ideas Loblaws was one of first companies to introduce organic foods under the PC brand. Pundits believe the company has a great ability to leverage consumer trends early and it is willing to invest heavily to make those important strategic shifts (Brown, 2015).

A competitive e-commerce platform This allows consumers to place orders and pick them up at stores or have them delivered to certain locations (Strauss, 2014).

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Image above: Newly renovated Loblaws at Maple Leaf Gardens in Toronto. Image source: Iam_chihang via https:// commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Loblaws_at_Maple_Leaf_ Gardens_Toronto_Canada.jpg

ABOUT LOBLAWS

Sustained heavy price competition Image above: screenshot of Loblaws’ website features their click and collect online shopping system.

Image source: http://shop.loblaws.ca

Loblaws continues to face heavy competition from Walmart, which launched plans to expand its network of stores and to offer fresh produce (Nguyen, 2015). Other competitors include big box chains such as Costco. This competition continues to place significant pressure on margins.

A changing landscape It is expected that greater numbers of people will be living in urban centers where accessibility will be key. As such, urban consumers who fit this profile are willing to pay a premium for healthy prepared food items, wellness products, prescriptions and vitamins. David Soberman, Canadian national chair of strategic marketing at Rotman School of Management in Toronto states that “I do believe that to enable growth in the food industry is to sell products at a premium by focusing on health products. The Shoppers deal makes sense by reaching out to market factions that are looking for products with health benefits” (Thompson, 2013).

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REFERENCES A Brief History of Loblaws Supermarkets | Loblaws. (n.d.). Retrieved February 18, 2016, from http://www.loblaws.ca/en_CA/community/ who-we-are.html Brown, M. (2015, March 23). How Loblaws stays on the cutting edge after 96 years. Retrieved February 19, 2016, from http://www. canadianbusiness.com/innovation/most-innovative-companies-2015loblaw/ Khrashinsky, S. (2014, September 17). Loblaw targets food-savvy Canadians in major marketing overhaul. Retrieved February 18, 2016, from http://www.theglobeandmail.com/report-on-business/industrynews/marketing/loblaw-targets-food-savvy-ca Nguyen, L. (2015, September 03). Loblaw’s Massive Expansion Plan. Retrieved February 18, 2016, from http://www.huffingtonpost. ca/2015/03/09/loblaw-plans-on-opening-5_n_6829712.html Strauss, M. (2014, May 02). Loblaw plans to battle Amazon and Wal-Mart with online food operation. Retrieved February 18, 2016, from http://www.theglobeandmail.com/report-on-business/loblawplans-to-battle-amazon-and-wal-mart-with-online-food-operation/ article18375627/ Thompson, R. (2013, December 16). Deal of the year: A big bet on small stores. Retrieved February 18, 2016, from http://listedmag. com/2013/12/deal-of-the-year-a-big-bet-on-small-stores/ 15

Image above: Former Shoppers Drug Mart President Dominic Pilla (left) with Loblaws CEO Galen Weston at a press conference in 2013, shortly after Loblaws purchased Shoppers for 12.4 billion dollars. Image source: Canadian Press/Michelle Siu via http://www.cp24.com/news/weston-takes-over-dailyoperations-at-loblaw-shoppers-head-to-exit-1.1917751

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Image source: Janice de Jong

SCANNING To gain an understanding of the main trends affecting what’s on the table in 2030, we performed a scan of current trends in the food industry. Given that food cuts across many aspects of our lives, we took a broad approach, examining the emerging movements in society, technology, the economy, the environment, politics and values, and the potential impact these changes could have on food systems as a whole. The figure below outlines the trends with respect to each realm.

SOCIETY Rise of Meal Sharing Platforms, The Need for Seeds, Rebranding the Gross Kitchens of the Future TECHNOLOGY Forever Fresh, The Zero Mile Diet, Digital Gastronomy, Rise of the Machine,

Genetically Modified Meat, Cultured Food, Future of Food Shopping ECONOMICS Low Income? Low Health.

ENVIRONMENT Eco Conscious Dining, Rethinking Food “Waste”, Fighting Colony Collapse, Fishing for Solutions POLITICS Label Gazing, Recognising Animal Sentience VALUES The People vs. Food Science, Bodies as a Resource This scan revealed an increasing and widespread awareness of the deficiencies in our food system, as well as an increase in opportunities and efforts to drive real change. These movements are manifesting on the individual level, the institutional level, or in a combination of the two (Figure below). The following pages outline these emerging trends and their potential implications for what’s on the table.

INDIVIDUAL CHANGE (SMALL SCALE) 17

BOTH INDIVIDUAL + INSTITUTIONAL CHANGE

INSTITUTIONAL CHANGE (LARGE SCALE)

SOCIETY

RISE OF MEAL SHARING PLATFORMS The rise and success of meal sharing platforms in cities around the world, with the aim of helping people connect offline and enjoy healthier home cooked options.

INDIVIDUAL CHANGE BOTH INDIVIDUAL + (SMALL SCALE) INSTITUTIONAL CHANGE

INSTITUTIONAL CHANGE (LARGE SCALE)

DESCRIPTION The rise of the sharing economy has been well documented over the last number of years with the success of the likes of Airbnb and other sharing outlets that will lend you anything from power tools to a fondue set for entertaining. This trend has created an acceptance and thirst for the co creation of shared experiences. Throughout the years, meals and food have always brought people together in celebration and mourning. As such, it is no wonder that in our time strapped, attention starved society there are those looking for both the home cooked meal and a genuine human connection that is authentic.

MATURITY This trend is likely to continue to rise and grow as greater numbers of people move into urban cities. it in those cities that diners of all ages will be looking to access such meal sharing platforms.

SIGNALS •

Meal sharing platform Eatwith has experienced a rapid rollout with 39 unique eating options in 10 new city locations in over a month (Bell, 2013).

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“Peer-to-peer dining” is the next frontier of the sharing economy (Airbnb and Uber) ( Johansan, 2015).

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Emergence of sites such as Eatwith.com, suppershare.com and feastly that allow the traveller to experience the country like a local and allow for the enjoyment of more intimate dinning settings ( Johansan, 2015).

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This form of dining creates space for people to connect offline over food and to share home cooked healthier options, while reducing waste (Kandel, 2014).

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Image above: an eatwith group sharing a Middle Eastern brunch in Manhattan. Photo

by Ellon Paz. Photo credit: Fox News: http://www.foxnews.com/leisure/2013/09/27/ super-club-websites-make-eating-with-strangers-easier/

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According to Fast Company the sharing economy is estimated at $2 billion dollars (Reid, 2014).

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Food collective Mealku. People who do not know each other cook homemade food and swap dishes that are freshly prepared (Badger, 2013).

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Kitchen surfing that has chefs show up and cook for host and guests.

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Cookapp offers different variations of the cooking and sharing concepts in cities around the world (Day, 2014).

SCANNING IMPLICATIONS

REFERENCES

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During times of economic slowdown and recession these meal sharing platforms provide attractive alternatives that are easy on the wallet and heavy on the experience aspects

1.

Badger, E. (2013, August 27). Why Home-Cooking From Total Strangers May Be the Future of Food. Retrieved November 22, 2015, from http://www.citylab.com/ tech/2013/08/sharing-economy-want-change-way-you-eat-dinner/6389/

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There are implications for the restaurant business but more importantly it will allow for the preparation and consumption of healthier food options with less waste

2.

Bell, A. (2013, September 27). Meal sharing platforms make eating with strangers easier than ever. Retrieved November 22, 2015, from http://www.foxnews.com/ leisure/2013/09/27/super-club-websites-make-eating-with-strangers-easier/

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It creates an opportunity for people to connect and is likely to improve the mental health of urban city dwellers. This creates a healthier mind body connection.

3.

Day, A. (2014, November 26). Meal sharing, kitchensurfing and chef hosting.

Retrieved November 22, 2015, from http://experience.usatoday.com/ food-and-wine/story/news-festivals-events/food/2014/11/26/meal-sharingservices/70054942/

4.

Johansan, M. (2015, April 30). Eat with strangers, make money? Retrieved November 22, 2015, from http://www.bbc.com/capital/story/20150429-eat-withstrangers-make-money

5.

Kandal, S. (2014, June 19). Meal Sharing is the Newest Player in the Sharing Economy. Retrieved November 22, 2015, from http://cityminded.org/mealsharing-newest-player-sharing-economy-11200

6.

Pang, S. (n.d.). World Travel Market Global Trends Report 2014Global Trends Report - Key Findings. Retrieved November 22, 2015.

7.

Reid, A. (2014, January 21). 3 Ways Brands Can Survive The Sharing Economy In 2014. Retrieved November 22, 2015, from http://www.fastcoexist.com/3024443/3ways-brands-can-survive-the-sharing-economy-in-2014

RELATED TRENDS •

Clustering and offering of other services inspired by the sharing economy

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Creation of online communication tools that allow for the sharing of such experiences

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Establishing of more robust support networks in fast paced urban centers

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Counter trend would be all about the single diner consuming highly processed ready to heat meals at home while watching TV.

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SOCIETY

THE NEED FOR SEEDS:

THE MOVE TOWARD COMMUNITY SEED RESOURCES

INDIVIDUAL CHANGE BOTH INDIVIDUAL + (SMALL SCALE) INSTITUTIONAL CHANGE

A move toward protecting the commons as a community, through communal seed resources.

INSTITUTIONAL CHANGE (LARGE SCALE)

DESCRIPTION Driven by food insecurity, seed-saving has been an important tool in preserving and improving food accessibility for the future.

Increasingly more seed- saving organizations have been showing up, with the aim to conserve genetic crop diversity, to protect farmers’ roles as seed innovators and stewards of the land, and to reinvigorate seed research and education¹. Resources that enable the public to borrow, trade, and save seeds have become increasingly more common.

MATURITY Seed-saving has matured well, but communal seed resources have been growing significantly in size and popularity as of late.

SIGNALS •

Toronto Seed Library is a place where people can pick up free seeds, but must try to save some seeds and return them to the library. This little-known resource is increasing in size and popularity. ²

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Seed Matters encourages and supports community seed projects, as well as promoting the exchange of seeds, knowledge, and skills.³

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Heirloomseedswap.com has grown into the number one free seed swap site in the world. ⁴ Regardless of where online communities like this one have started, they serve as a worldwide resource – connecting like-minded individuals in an effort to protect the world‘s commons.

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Svalbard Global Seed Vault is the world’s largest secure seed storage, opened by the Norwegian Government in February 2008. ⁵

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The Global Movement for Seed Freedom protects the

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Image above: example of a table belonging to a seed library from source: http://heritagegarden.uic.edu/seedlibrary/

biodiversity of the planet by defending of the freedom of the seed to evolve in integrity, self-organisation, and diversity. They say, “Our diverse seeds, used in agroecological systems produce more food and nutrition per acre and are the systems produce more food and nutrition per acre and are the real solution to hunger and malnutrition, not GMOs. Our evolutionary seeds, continuously adapting to climate change, are the real answer for climate adaptation and resilience, not GMOS now packaged as “Climate Smart Agriculture”. ⁶

IMPLICATIONS •

The fact that this trend encourages many people of different walks of life to use and return seeds provides opportunity for

SCANNING modification of the seeds, specifically genetic modification and/or hybridity. Genetic modification can be seen as both positive and negative.

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The increasing popularity of community seed resources may influence a movement of other community resources.

Possibilities may include storage, banking, storing emergency products for the community, and many more.

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A strengthened community resource bank is likely to result in a strengthened community, which can lead to perceived comfort, safety and unity in applied areas.

RELATED TRENDS •

A recent discovery found that plants adapt their flowering time to ambient temperatures, providing ways in which the flowering time can be predicted on the basis of genetic information. ⁷ This may lead to the ability to switch flowering on or off and thus respond to changes in the climate.

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New research reveals details into a fundamental mechanism of how plants manage their energy intake, which could potentially be harnessed to improve yield. 8This could be used by seed community users to plan around growth cycles more accurately and to enhance their likelihood of getting certain results.

3.

Community Seed Toolkit. (n.d.). Retrieved November 25, 2015, from http:// seedmatters.org/about-us/programs/community-seed-toolkit/

4.

The Free Seed Exchange. (n.d.). Retrieved November 25, 2015, from http://www. heirloomseedswap.com/

5.

Svalbard Global Seed Vault. (n.d.). Retrieved November 25, 2015, from https:// www.regjeringen.no/en/topics/food-fisheries-and-agriculture/landbruk/svalbardglobal-seed-vault/id462220/

6.

Our Resolve, Our Commitment. (n.d.). Retrieved November 25, 2015, from http://seedfreedom.info/global-movement-for-seed-freedom-our-resolve-ourcommitment/

7.

Researchers Can Now Predict Plant Flowering Time. (2015, October 26). Retrieved November 25, 2015, fromhttp://seedworld.com/researchers-can-now-predictplant-flowering-time/

8.

Cellular Damage Control System Helps Plants Tough it Out. (2015, October 29).

Retrieved November 25, 2015, from http://seedworld.com/cellular-damagecontrol-system-helps-plants-tough-it-out/

REFERENCES 1.

Hartnett, K. (2014, March 9). ‘Seed libraries’ try to save the world’s plants. Retrieved November 25, 2015, from http://www.bostonglobe. com/ideas/2014/03/09/seed-libraries-try-save-world-plants/ XnM6HJ8GCfPoo6JWtU6DQL/story.html

2.

Toronto Seed Library. (n.d.). Retrieved November 25, 2015, from http://www. torontoseedlibrary.org/

Image above: example of a table belonging to a seed library from source: http://heritagegar 21

SOCIETY

REBRANDING THE GROSS Disguising socially stigmatized elements in food is changing our perception of what is “normal” when it comes to food.

INDIVIDUAL CHANGE BOTH INDIVIDUAL + (SMALL SCALE) INSTITUTIONAL CHANGE

INSTITUTIONAL CHANGE (LARGE SCALE)

DESCRIPTION With an increase in society’s health consciousness, research has been looking into replacing animal meat with healthier, more environmentally friendly source of protein.1 Making unpalatable palatable is changing what is considered normal food, thus causing a cultural shift towards what was once unpalatable. Insects and Algae are two examples of atypical food ingredients that are being introduced as typical. They have both been ground into flour and used in common products. Upon noticing that many North Americans would not be immediately open to consuming these, bugs, algae and other cultural taboos have been increasingly disguised as everything – even milk and cookies.

MATURITY This trend is just the beginning. As our resources continue to deplete, alternative sources of nutrients will become necessities and so will making them acceptable in our culture.

Image above: “Exo’s peanut butter-and-jelly bar contains about 40 ground-up crickets and has a familiar nutty, sweet flavor” 3

SIGNALS •

Algae Milk and Cookies²: as health benefits are found in more sources that would not typically be eaten, several formulae and recipes are experimented with. One would typically not eat algae out of a pond, but it is hard to say no to milk and cookies.

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Cricket flour³: On that note, by grinding crickets into a flour-like substance, they can now replace typical flour in some dishes. The top right photo shows Exo, a snack bar that contains 40 crickets.

“Exo’s peanut butter-and-jelly bar contains about 40 ground-up crickets and has a familiar nutty, sweet flavor”³.

•

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Fooling perception to make food taste better⁴: tactics that provide a way to fool one’s perception about their food are changing the possibilities of what is on our plates. Examples include ways for diners to react differently to their food such as a higher contrast

between plate and meal or dimming the lights which have been proven to change the perceived taste of food. Things aren’t always what they seem to be.

IMPLICATIONS •

If claims about the health benefits of certain atypical sources are true, their implementation into our society may cause significant health improvements across the population.

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If healthier alternatives can be disguised and/ or manipulated to taste better, people will have less of reason to eat unhealthy.

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If what is currently abnormal becomes the future norm, there will be a great cultural and societal change in eating styles, as well

SCANNING as eating habits. The more accepting our culture is of eating the abnormal, the more our diets contain said abnormality.

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If alternative sources of protein are used, this may be better for the animals that are currently being used such as pigs and cows.

However, this could raise ethical issues of which species deserves to be saved and which species deserves to be eaten.

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A decrease in the now atypical sources could drastically change the ecosystems around them.

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The use of alternative sources could cause financially friendly ways to get nutrients which could improve food security OR it could be less financially friendly and increase food security

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Because newer sources have less research history, their use poses a possibility of decrease in illness and disease OR an increase in illness and disease

REFERENCES 1.

‘Insect Pizza,’ ‘Bug Mac’ Foods of the Future? : DNews. (2011, January 23). Retrieved November 25, 2015, from http://news.discovery.com/human/insects-food-wormsenvironment-110123.htm

2.

Zax, D. (2010, December 15). For Eco-Friendly Santas: Algae Milk and Cookies.

Retrieved November 25, 2015, from http://www.fastcompany.com/1709540/ecofriendly-santas-algae-milk-and-cookies

3.

McCaul, A. (2014, August 21). Startups Pitch Cricket Flour As The Best Protein You Could Eat. Retrieved November 25, 2015, from http://www.npr.org/sections/ thesalt/2014/08/15/340653853/startups-pitch-cricket-flour-as-the-best-proteinyou-could-eat

4.

Veigas, J. (2015, March 27). 10 Food Tricks That Fool Our Perception :DNews.

Retrieved November 25, 2015, from http://news.discovery.com/human/ psychology/10-food-tricks-that-fool-our-perception-150326.htm

Image above: Algae milk and cookies2 23

SOCIETY

KITCHENS OF THE FUTURE Domestic kitchens are being transformed where new design approaches will change the dining experience

INDIVIDUAL CHANGE BOTH INDIVIDUAL + (SMALL SCALE) INSTITUTIONAL CHANGE

INSTITUTIONAL CHANGE (LARGE SCALE)

DESCRIPTION “The worlds of design and food are coming together. Changing lifestyles and attitudes are also helping to drive profound change in what was once the most utilitarian of rooms” (Dezeen Magazine, 2010).

MATURITY This trend is likely to grow as rapid prototyping, high-tech home farming, and sophisticated and low-energy systems make their way into the kitchen of the future.

SIGNALS Society •

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The art exhibition at the Milan Food Expo 2015 explored the themes such as the presence of food, places for eating together, nourishment, and technology (http://www.expo2015.org/en).

Cutting-edge chefs, kitchen brands, restaurateurs, and supermarkets are increasingly turning to designers to give their offerings added cultural relevance and commercial appeal (http:// arabeschidilatte.org).

Olivia des Descaris (2009), a food designer, reports, “We are trying to design food as we design [other] materials. The most obvious manifestation of designers’ new fascination with food is the way they now view foodstuffs as a material to work with. Like wood, metals and plastics, food is something they can take into the workshop, and experiment with.”

Dombracht a manufacturer of kitchen fixtures describes itself as “culturing life” by offering health, intelligence, and aesthetics with its kitchen products and services (https://www.dornbracht.com/ en-ca/).

Image above: The close connection between food, design and technology will bring new ways to experience our kitchens. From http://www.dezeen.com/2010/11/22/ food-and-design-report

Economic •

Avant-garde designer, Mike Meiré (2007), explored the possibility of the kitchen as a source of fresh food. The Farm Project is a kitchen installation as a workshop for the senses. Sheep, pigs, fish, and rabbits abound in a barn-like kitchen.

Technology •

French designer Mathieu Lehanneur, (2015), created a domestic tank for breeding fish for consumption that doubles as a vegetable garden; salads and greens are grown in glass pods floating on the water and are fertilized by fish waste.

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Technological advances in 3D manufacturing that allow threedimensional objects to be “printed” at low cost means such

SCANNING techniques could soon be used in the domestic kitchen to prepare your dinner (NASA, 2013) Values •

Ethical considerations have risen to the fore when it comes to choosing a new kitchen. Consumers are demanding cost- efficient low energy systems; and pollution and waste reduction.

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The notion of provenance – where something comes from – has become highly important in this new value system, with people expecting transparency and honesty about the origin of goods and ingredients.

IMPLICATIONS The kitchen of the future will take on many forms yet continue to be a gathering space where food can be raised to an art form, where experiments and innovation take place and where people can enjoy the sensory elements of food in the company of friends and family.

Designers will continue to be part of the food revolution by planning sustainable home kitchen environments with tools that will be costeffective and energy efficient.

4.

Dombracht, Retrieved on February 16, 2016 from https://www.dornbracht.com/ en-ca/.

5.

Eggenkamp A. (2010) /Chairwoman Executive Design Academy Eindhoven/ via Ventura. Retrieved on February 16, 2016 from https://www.youtube. com/watch?v=we3p_G7ULCUhttp://cdn3.hometone.com/wp-content/ uploads/2012/07/dzn_milan-kitchen-by-gitta-gschwendtner-4_InllE_1822.jpg

6.

Lehanneur, M. (2015) Design Mathieu Lehanneur. Arts Magazine.

Retrieved on February 16, 2016 from http://www.mathieulehanneur.fr/ pressebank/54aa666220ecc.pdf.

7.

Milan Food Expo (2015) Retrieved on February 16, 2016 from http://www. consensuseconomics.com/News_and_Articles/Future_Food_Supply_Issues420. htm .

8.

Miere, M. (2007) The Workshop as a Kitchen. Retrieved on February 16, 2016 from https://www.dornbracht.com/en/culture-projects/edges/the-farm-project/.

9.

NASA. (2013). 3D Printing: Food in Space. Retrieved on February 16, 2016 from http://www.nasa.gov/directorates/spacetech/home/feature_3d_food.html#.

VlpFb4Rhffg.

10. Vogelzang, M. Proef Restaurant. Retrieved on February 16, 2016 from http://www. proefamsterdam.nl/

RELATED TRENDS Molecular Gastronomy, Forever Fresh, 3D Food Printing (see “Digital Gastronomy”)

REFERENCES 1.

Arabeschi di Latte. Retrieved on February 16, 2016 from http://www. arabeschidilatte.org

2.

Dezeen Magazine. (2010). Dezeen Limited for Scholtès. Retrieved on February 16, 2016 from http://www.consensuseconomics.com/News_and_Articles/Future_ Food_Supply_Issues420.htm .

3.

Descaris, O. (2009) Retrieved on February 16, 2016 from http://www.oliviadecaris. com.

Image above: The cross-fertilization between food and design is already having a marked impact on the way people prepare and enjoy food. From http://www. dezeen.com/2010/11/22/food-and-design-report

25

TECHNOLOGY

FOREVER FRESH From High Pressure Processing to bacteria-sensing materials to food powders, innovative methods for long-term food preservation are increasing food security, minimizing waste, and boosting food safety.

INDIVIDUAL CHANGE BOTH INDIVIDUAL + (SMALL SCALE) INSTITUTIONAL CHANGE

INSTITUTIONAL CHANGE (LARGE SCALE)

DESCRIPTION With increasing consumer awareness of food waste¹, concerns over food scarcity², and frequent tainted food recalls³, there is a growing desire to explore new ways of preserving food freshness and safety.

New treatments, such as HPP (High Pressure Processing)⁴ and chitosan/lyzozyme⁵ treatments are creating new ways to preserve food without sacrificing flavour or texture. Meanwhile, methods of analyzing food for harmful bacteria with responsive colour changing materials reassure customers that their food is safe⁶. For food that is near expiry, powders made of food waste present ways of extending the utility of off and potentially presents intriguing new ingredients to our diet⁷. These methods ensure that our food is safer for a longer time with less waste.

MATURITY While some technologies, such as HPP, are more established, many of these preservation techniques are new and will require thorough scrutiny before being made widely available. As such, this trend is a slower moving curve that is in its early stages.

SIGNALS •

In an effort to develop food that lasts for long journeys, NASA recently developed a bread pudding that stays fresh for a year⁸.

•

Lund University students recently created “FoPo”, a freeze-dried food powder made of near-expired foods like bananas and raspberries⁷.

•

•

26

German researchers recently developed a colour changing material that detects toxins. One potential use case was identifying spoiled food through its packaging⁶.

Developments in High Pressure Processing may soon “allow the military to offer sandwiches stuffed with ingredients like tuna

Image above: Examples of FoPo, a freeze-dried food powder made of near-expired foods like bananas and raspberries, designed to reduce food security and food waste7

salad and mayonnaise”4, 5.

•

Oregon State food scientist Yanyun Zhao has developed an antibacterial food coating made of chitosan and lysozyme for delicate fruits and vegetables⁵.

IMPLICATIONS •

As these new methods grow in popularity, the definition of “fresh” may shift from how old the food is to how fresh it tastes.

•

In a food scare world, truly fresh food may become a luxury item.

•

While many of these technologies are for industrial food processing, consumer tools for HPP and food powders may enter the home, helping consumers reduce their own food waste. In

SCANNING other words, these methods could be future versions of freezing or canning.

•

Food powders like FoPo could create some unique ingredients, applications and food preparation methods (e.g. how might we cook with banana powder?)

•

Dynamic expiry dates on packaging which respond to bacterial contamination may become required through legislation.

RELATED TRENDS

4.

Blum, D. (2012, March 12). 5. Food That Lasts Forever. Time. Retrieved from http://content.time.com/time/magazine/article/0,9171,2108051,00.html

5.

Freedman, D. (2011, September 2). The Bright, Hi-Tech Future of Food Preservation. Discover Magazine. Retrieved November 12, 2015, from http:// discovermagazine.com/2011/sep/17-impatient-futurist-hi-tech-future-foodpreservation

6.

Toor, A. (2013, May 4). Color-changing gloves detect airborne toxins with shades of blue. The Verge. Retrieved November 15, 2015, from http://www.theverge. com/2013/5/4/4299528/fraunhofer-gloves-change-color-in-presence-of-toxins

7.

Hutchings, E. (2015, August 7). From Two Weeks to Two Years: Powdered Food Curbs Waste, Saves Lives. PSFK. Retrieved from http://www.psfk.com/2015/08/ powdered-food-waste-disaster-relief.html

•

Those who subscribe to the Zero Mile Diet, seen elsewhere in this report, may gain great benefits from new methods of preserving their home-grown food.

8.

Preston, E. (2015, September 17). How NASA Is Solving the Space Food Problem. Eater. Retrieved November 17, 2015, from http://www.eater. com/2015/9/17/9338665/space-food-nasa-astronauts-mars

•

MyBiome looks at the importance of food at the nano level, helping to feed the right bacteria and limit the harmful ones9, 10.

9.

•

Digital Gastronomy, seen elsewhere in this report, explores the potential of 3D food printing, could use food powders as a base material.

Eisen, L. (2015, October 29). Microbes: The Hidden Reason Behind the Obesity Epidemic? The Nature of Things. CBC. Retrieved from http://www.cbc.ca/ natureofthings/it-takes-guts

10. Laughlin, S., & Rees, T. (2014, July 14). MyBiome. Retrieved November 12, 2015, from https://www.lsnglobal.com/micro-trends/article/16127/mybiome

•

Disaster Dining is a weak signal trend that looks at preparing the food supply for catastrophic events. For example, the first withdrawal of the infamous Svalbard Global Seed Vault was recently made11, restoring seeds to farmers in war-torn Syria.

11. Handwerk, B., & Howard, B. C. (2015, September 23). See the “Doomsday” Seed Vault Opened in Response to Syria Crisis. Retrieved November 15, 2015, from http://news.nationalgeographic.com/2015/09/150923-svalbard-doomsday-arcticseed-vault-syrian-crisis-pictures/

REFERENCES 1.

Chavich, C. (2015, May 5). How to solve the food waste problem. Retrieved from http://www.macleans.ca/society/life/how-to-solve-the-food-waste-problem/

2.

Walker, S. (2014, October 12). Why Canada may be heading into a food security crisis. The Toronto Star. Retrieved from http://www.thestar.com/news/ insight/2014/10/12/canada_may_be_heading_into_a_food_security_crisis.html

3.

Mehler Paperny, A. (2015, June 1). Tainted lunch: Navigating gaps in Canada’s food safety system. Retrieved from http://globalnews.ca/news/2016254/tainted-lunchnavigating-gaps-in-canadas-food-safety-system/

Image above: Image by Jamie Chung from Time Magazine’s article “Food That Lasts Forever”3 27

TECHNOLOGY

THE ZERO MILE DIET In-home aeroponics and aquaponics systems are providing small scale urban agriculture solutions, allowing urban dwellers to sustainably grow a complete diet in their own kitchens

INDIVIDUAL CHANGE BOTH INDIVIDUAL + (SMALL SCALE) INSTITUTIONAL CHANGE

INSTITUTIONAL CHANGE (LARGE SCALE)

DESCRIPTION While kitchen gardens, patio tomatoes and other small scale urban farming methods are well-established1,2, technological developments are providing new methods of growing an independent, sustainable and complete diet in urban homes. Aeroponics systems, which grow plants in moist air rather than in soil or water, enables high-volume crop growth in reduced spaces³. Meanwhile, advances in aquaponics – a symbiotic system that combines aquaculture and hydroponics – are allowing people to grow their own vegetables and fish in their own home4,5. In a more unorthodox vein, mealworm hives and home algae gardens are allowing people to harvest their own alternative protein source6,7. Oftentimes, these systems are designed to resemble modern kitchen cabinets, fitting right into the aesthetic of compact urban kitchens⁸. Targeting young, eco-conscious urban dwellers, these systems are packed with smart-monitoring features to increase production⁸.

MATURITY Urban gardening is a well-established trend, however aeroponics, aquaponics, and bug farming are much more in their infancy, with many products at the conceptual or v1.0 stage.

SIGNALS •

The Nano Garden is a fashionable hydroponic kitchen garden concept that grows herbs and vegetables in a futuristic form factor⁹.

•

A fish tank and herb garden in one, The Water Garden is a smallscale aquaponics system where the fish feed the plants and the plants clean the water⁴. Vegua is a similar system10.

•

MIT CityFarm founder and 2015 National Geographic “Emerging Explorer” Caleb Harper is developing smart home aeroponics systems that allow food to be “farmed from anywhere via a

28

Frame from promotional video for Grove Labs’ in-home aquaponics unit, which puts plants and fish in a closed ecosystem. The system has advanced tech features while being packaged in a home-friendly form factor8, 11

personal food computer”³.

•

Another product from former MIT students, Grove Labs is an in-home gardening system that uses advanced digital monitoring and is styled like a domestic kitchen cabinet8, 11.

•

LIVIN Farms is a mealworm hive, providing urban dwellers with a sustainable and home-grown protein source⁶.

•

WaterLilly is a home algae farm that provides an energy and sustainable protein source⁷.

•

An early signal to this trend, Mathieu Lehanneur’s Local River project was a conceptual in-home aquaculture garden designed in 2008⁵.

SCANNING IMPLICATIONS

REFERENCES

•

As consumers increasingly grow their diet at home, demand for produce in local farmer’s markets and grocery stores may decrease. Alternatively, these businesses may refocus their efforts to foods that cannot easily be grown at home.

1.

Associated Press. (2008, May 20). As food prices rise, more people grow their own.

Retrieved November 23, 2015, from http://www.nbcnews.com/id/24729307/ns/ business-retail/t/food-prices-rise-more-people-grow-their-own/

2.

Herriot, C. (2010). The Zero Mile Diet: A Year-Round Guide to Growing Organic Food. Harbour.

•

Many of these systems require a high amount of electricity, which could hinder adoption or increase the need for affordable energy alternatives.

3.

National Geographic Live. (2015). Revolutionizing the Way We Grow Food.

Retrieved from http://video.nationalgeographic.com/video/ng-live/151027harper-technology-food-lecture-nglive

•

In times of bountiful harvest, consumers may need different methods to store their crops for the long term (see Forever Fresh trend).

4.

Back to the Roots. (2015). Water Garden. Retrieved November 12, 2015, from http://backtotheroots.com/products/watergarden

5.

Dezeen. (2008, April 27). Local River by Mathieu Lehanneur. Retrieved November 21, 2015, from http://www.dezeen.com/2008/04/07/local-river-by-mathieulehanneur/

6.

Pena, A. (2015, November 12). From Hive to the Table: Harvest and Cook Mealworms. Retrieved November 12, 2015 from http://www.psfk.com/2015/11/ livin-farms-desk-hive-super-food-how-to-cook-mealworms.html

7.

Pincus, R. (2014, February 11). Micro-Algae Factories Could Be A Food And Energy Source For The Home. Retrieved from http://www.psfk.com/2014/02/householdalgae-factories.html

8.

Qiu, L. (2014, March 31). MIT Grads Create A Personal Farm For Your Kitchen.

Retrieved November 12, 2015 from http://www.psfk.com/2014/03/mit-gradscreate-a-personal-farm-for-your-kitchen.html

9.

Mok, K. (2013, February 28). Sleek hydroponic unit lets you grow a garden in your kitchen. Retrieved November 21, 2015, from http://www.treehugger.com/ sustainable-product-design/kitchen-nano-garden-hydroponic-hyundai.html

•

With an increasing awareness of where their food comes from, consumers growing their own food may have more scrutiny in their store-bought food. For example, they may be more concerned about animal well-being, or the farming methods used on their vegetables.

RELATED TRENDS •

Discussed elsewhere on this report, Forever Fresh would provide alternative methods of storing home-grown harvests for the long term.

•

Vertical Farming: Numerous building concepts are exploring how to engage in large-scale farming in compact urban environments12.

•

Taking the Ick out of Crickets: While alternative proteins such as mealworms, crickets, and algae have been celebrated as a sustainable option, consumers are reluctant to add them to their diet. Methods of processing “hide” these protein alternatives in other foods, gradually alleviating consumers’ “ick-factor”13.

•

As a counter trend, Monoconomies favours regional specialization of global food production over the self-sustenance model presented here (see Oktay Kesebi’s report).

10. Brick, J. (2015, February 13). Tabletop Aquaponic Farm is Functional Fish Bowl.

Retrieved from http://www.psfk.com/2015/02/vegua-aquaponic-farm-fish-bowlfood.html 11. Grove Ecosystem - Grow Fresh Food In Your Home. (2015). Retrieved November 21, 2015, from https://www.kickstarter.com/projects/grove-ecosystem/groveecosystem-grow-fresh-food-in-your-home 12. Marks, P. (2014, January 18). Vertical farms sprouting all over the world | New Scientist. New Scientist. Retrieved from https://www.newscientist.com/article/ mg22129524-100-vertical-farms-sprouting-all-over-the-world/ 13. Washington, N. (2015, May 20). Bug Off: Why Insect Eating Is More Gimmick Than Reality. Retrieved from http://theplate.nationalgeographic.com/2015/05/20/ bug-off-why-insect-eating-is-more-gimmick-than-reality/

29

TECHNOLOGY

DIGITAL GASTRONOMY From digital assistants to 3D printing to cognitive cooking, computers are having a greater influence over what and how we eat

INDIVIDUAL CHANGE BOTH INDIVIDUAL + (SMALL SCALE) INSTITUTIONAL CHANGE

INSTITUTIONAL CHANGE (LARGE SCALE)

DESCRIPTION Computers are now getting a seat at the dinner table, reinventing how food is made, what it contains, and even how we eat it. 3D printed food has been envisioned by designers for several years, and is now becoming a reality1, 2, 3. Luxury dining experiences are now serving 3D printed “fabricated food”4, 5, and the prestigious Culinary Institute of America is exploring 3D printing technology⁶. Moving beyond 3D printed food, cognitive cooking engine Chef Watson is developing new recipes based on previously unimagined ingredient combinations⁷. Immersive and virtual experiences are acting as chef assistants⁸ and are even simulating the act of dining9, 10. These new technologies point to an emerging field of “digital gastronomy”, where computers play a role throughout the dining experience11.

MATURITY There are some tools currently available to consumers, such as cognitive cooking and 3D printed dining. However, this is still a relatively new field that is still very much in its infancy. For example, it will take some time for Virtual Reality dining and immersive chef assistants to become available to the general public.

Image above: Printing a chocolate dessert from the world’s first 3D printed meal at a pop-up restaurant in London by chef Mateo Blanch4.

•

A collaboration between IBM and Bon Appetit, Chef Watson’s cognitive cooking engine scans recipe archives and analyses molecular compounds to develop unique and unconventional recipes ⁷.

•

Project Nourished is a virtual dining experience that allows users to “eat anything [they] want without the regret”. The experience is created by blending virtual reality technology, aromatic diffusers, bone conduction, and motion sensors to simulate the entire eating experience9, 10.

•

“A Table for Living” uses motion sensors, projectors and cameras to create an immersive chef assistant. It identifies ingredients and suggests recipe options, walks users through food preparation, and provides ingredient information⁸.

SIGNALS •

MIT Media Lab students created the Cornucopia 3D food printer, an early signal in the rise in 3D printed food¹.

•

The Culinary Institute of America (CIA) is currently exploring “the future of three-dimensional (3D) printed food and artisan culinary methods”⁶.

•

This past May, Chef Mateo Blanch served the first five course 3D printed meal at a pop-up restaurant in London⁴.

•

Dovetailed’s 3D printer makes “fruit”– made from fruit juice and alginic acid – on demand³.

30

SCANNING IMPLICATIONS •

•

Digital Gastronomy tools such as cognitive cooking engines and immersive cooking assistants could be as normal as the mixer and blender in the kitchen.

With cognitive cooking engines finding new flavour combinations, and 3D printing requiring soft and pliable media, new ingredient combinations and textures could enter our culinary lexicon.

•

Virtual dining could allow us to indulge in a special treat without guilt, or allow us to share an intimate dining experience with a loved one far away.

•

3D printed food could create new and novel experiences with respect to plating and ingredients, and may perhaps bring new rituals around special meals. For example, children could 3D print special cookies for Santa as part of the Christmas Eve ritual.

•

However, in order to become a regular fixture in the home, 3D printed food will have to move beyond the novel into the practical. For example, printing will have to be faster and capable of printing a broader range of foods, to meet our demands for speed and meal variety.

4.

Huen, E. (2015, July 31). 3D Food Printing: Is It Ready for Luxury Dining?

Retrieved November 21, 2015, from http://www.forbes.com/sites/ eustaciahuen/2015/07/31/3d-food-printing-is-it-ready-for-luxury-dining/

5.

Future in Focus. (2015). Fabricated Food: In the Lab, Factory, at Home. Retrieved November 12, 2015, from http://futureinfocus.com/briefs/fabricated-food-in-thelab-factory-at-home/

6.

Culinary Institute of America. (2015, March 10). 3D Food Printing Comes to the CIA. Retrieved November 21, 2015, from http://www.ciachef.edu/fh-3dprinting/

7.

Chef Watson with Bon Appétit. (2015). Retrieved November 12, 2015, from https:// www.ibmchefwatson.com

8.

IKEA, IDEO, TU Eindhoven, & Lund University. (2015). Concept Kitchen 2025.

Retrieved November 12, 2015, from http://www.conceptkitchen2025.com/

9.

Andreotti, A. (2015, January 10). Virtual Reality Dining Experience. Retrieved November 12, 2015, from https://www.nextnature.net/2015/01/virtual-realitydining-experience/

10. An, J. (2015). Project Nourished: A Gastronomical Virtual Reality Experience.

Retrieved November 21, 2015, from http://www.projectnourished.com/ 11. Van Mensvoort, K. (2010, January 23). Digital Gastronomy. Retrieved November 12, 2015, from https://www.nextnature.net/2010/01/digital-gastronomy

RELATED TRENDS •

Food powders discussed in the Forever Fresh trend could be used as interesting and sustainable ingredients for 3D food printers.

REFERENCES 1.

Zoran, A. and Coelho, M. (2010) “Cornucopia: The Concept of Digital Gastronomy.” in Leonardo: Journal of the International Society for the Arts, Sciences and Technology. Volume 44, Number 5, October 2011, pp. 425-431.

2.

Charlebois, S. (2015, June 17). Is 3-D printing the future of global food? Retrieved November 21, 2015, from http://www.theglobeandmail.com/report-on-business/ rob-commentary/is-3-d-printing-the-future-of-global-food/article24981139/

3.

Boyd, H. (2014, May 28). 3D Printer Will Print Futuristic Fruit On Demand.

Retrieved from http://www.psfk.com/2014/05/3d-printed-fruit.html

Image above: “A Table for Living” from The Concept Kitchen 2025 project uses motion sensors, projectors and cameras to create an immersive chef assistant8.

31

TECHNOLOGY

RISE OF THE MACHINE INDIVIDUAL CHANGE BOTH INDIVIDUAL + (SMALL SCALE) INSTITUTIONAL CHANGE

Increased use of robots, apps and server-less dining

INSTITUTIONAL CHANGE (LARGE SCALE)

DESCRIPTION Increased labour costs and lack of standardization in food preparation and service has led to the increase in automation in restaurants. Robots are being introduced that can prepare anything from lobster bisque to hamburgers. The technology seems to have come a long way with refinements being incorporated daily. The days of buying stale food from vending machines are gone. San Francisco’s first server- less restaurant features many healthy items that are prepared behind the scenes. As such, the efficiency of solitude has come to be seen as the ultimate luxury good.

MATURITY This trend seems to be on the rise as new technological advances are introduced and the machines evolve to include greater nuanced functionality at a lesser price. Rate of adoption will vary depending on geographic location and demographics. Millennials are far more likely to embrace guest-facing technologies.

SIGNALS

Image above: photo of first server less restaurant Eatsa in San Francisco Photo credit: Eatsa: Is a Restaurant Without Waiters the Future of Food? - The Atlantic http://www.theatlantic.com/entertainment/archive/2015/09/the-restaurant-with-invisiblewaiters/403297/

•

New San Francisco Franchise that is 100% server less during the age of Amazon and Uber. The efficiency of solitude has come to be seen as the ultimate luxury good (Garber, 2015)

•

Japan introduces shokkenki. where customers can choose the meal they want and purchase a ticket for it with minimal human interaction (Hu, 2013)

•

Moley Robotics reveals robot that can make 2000 meals (Shah, 2015)

•

•

Robot Mixologist and bartender debuts at the Google Conference in San Francisco (Forbes, 2013)

Rise in use of guest facing technology from tablets to apps to help customers place an order or play a game while they wait for their order (Restaurant Business, 2014)

•

Proliferation of casual dining experiences in server less restaurants where the tables are giant touch screens that sync with smartphone like devices (Fessenden, 2015)

•

Burgers of tomorrow could be made by robots — not employees in the face of higher labor costs (Hu, 2013)

32

IMPLICATIONS •

Creation of dining experiences that are focused on the enjoyment of the food that is prepared behind the scenes without having to deal with service issues.

SCANNING •

Decrease in the price of meals consumed outside of the home as the associated labour costs plummet.

•

Eating at any time, anywhere that allows for people to access whatever they want whenever they want it.

•

Access to greater food variety due to decreased costs and the ability to offer healthier options that might have a higher cost.

• •

REFERENCES 1.

Fessenden, M. Dining in the Future: Predictions for Restaurant Eating in 2040.

Retrieved November 23, 2015, from http://www.smithsonianmag.com/smartnews/dine-future-predictions-restaurant-eating-2040-180956637/?no-ist

2.

Forbes, P. (2013, May 15). Behold the Latest in Robot Mixologists, the Makr Shakr.

Retrieved November 23, 2015, from http://www.eater.com/2013/5/15/6434077/ behold-the-latest-in-robot-mixologists-the-makr-shakr

Ability to change menus that reflect the seasons as many of the menus are featured on apps and electronic devices

3.

Garber, M. (2015, September 02). Server-less Restaurants Might Be the Future of Dining. Retrieved November 23, 2015, from http://www.theatlantic.com/ entertainment/archive/2015/09/the-restaurant-with-invisible-waiters/403297/

Creation of opportunities where customers can enjoy greater moments of solitude, which has become a luxury in our fast paced world.

4.

Hu, E. (2013, August 29). The Fast-Food Restaurants That Require Few Human Workers. Retrieved November 23, 2015, from http://www.npr.org/sections/ alltechconsidered/2013/08/28/216541023/the-fast-food-restaurants-that-requirefew-human-workers

5.

Shah, K. (2015, April 14). This Robot Will Woo You With Crab Bisque and 1,999 Other Recipes. Retrieved November 22, 2015, from http://www.eater. com/2015/4/14/8416487/this-robot-will-woo-you-with-crab-bisque-and-1999other-recipes

6.

7 Trends In Restaurants For 2015. (2015, February 02). Retrieved November 22, 2015, from http://restaurantengine.com/seven-trends-restaurants/

RELATED TRENDS •

Rise in human less service interactions that allow for greater accessibility to services at lower prices from Uber to Amazon

•

New technology interfaces that allow customers to pre pay for their meal and be out of the door

•

Starbucks introduces its new app that allows customers to place an order and pay before they arrive at the actual location

•

Uber enters the food delivery market and allows customers to place orders via their Uber account

•

Proliferation of grocery shopping apps where customers can place orders for their favourite brand of ice cream and have that delivered without leaving home

•

Successful launch of laundry and dry cleaning apps such as Simply Laundry and Exclusive Dry cleaners that allow customers to send in their clothing items with no human interaction.

•

A counter trend to this is the emergence of concepts such as communal dining and dinner with strangers where the focus is really on the interaction with other diners.

33

TECHNOLOGY

GENETICALLY MODIFIED MEAT To meet the increasing demand for meat for human consumption and recognizing dwindling natural resources (World Health Organization), livestock producers are turning to biotechnology to increase productivity.

INDIVIDUAL CHANGE BOTH INDIVIDUAL + (SMALL SCALE) INSTITUTIONAL CHANGE

INSTITUTIONAL CHANGE (LARGE SCALE)

DESCRIPTION The Food and Agricultural Organization of the United Nations expects global demand for meat and milk to double by 2050.

Genetically modified (GM) meat has been on the radar because there is some perceived advantage either to the producer or consumer that the products will have a lower price, greater benefit in terms of durability, nutritional value and the environment.

MATURITY There have been many gene-editing innovations involving animals and fish over the past 25 years. Researchers have developed dozens of GM animals over the years, from pigs full of healthy omega-3 fatty acids to chickens resistant to bird flu, to GM salmon.

SIGNALS Policy •

•

A type of genetically engineered Atlantic salmon has recently been approved to be farmed for human consumption by the U.S. Food and Drug Administration regulators (Stiers, 2103; Steenhuysen & Polansek, 2015).

Countries with legislation in place focus primarily on assessment of risks for consumer health (WHO).

Image above: CRISPR: A powerful gene-editing technology is the biggest game changer to hit biology. Retrieved on February 14, 2016 from http://gizmodo.com/ everything-you-need-to-know-about-crispr-the-new-tool-1702114381

specific genes without changing other parts of an animal’s genome (Carlson et al, 2012; Ridley, 2013; Ledford, 2015).

•

Biotechnology firm Recombinetics filed a dozen utility patents supporting the use of gene editing technologies for livestock improvement (Frahenkrug, 2013).

•

Additives commonly found in sausage and ham are often produced using methods involving genetically modified microorganisms (GMO Compass).

Technology •

GM goats have been developed that produce milk containing antibacterial proteins that can prevent diarrhea (Murray, J. in Coussins, 2015).

•

Powerful new genome-editing tools such a newly published technique called CRISPR that allows researchers to quickly change the DNA of nearly any organism — including humans mean researchers can make very precise changes to DNA, altering

34

IMPLICATIONS The FDA’s decision on GM salmon may set a precedent that could make approval for other genetically modified animal species easier.

SCANNING Genetic modification is one tool that has great potential to advance our food system when used thoughtfully and with oversight. But so far not one transgenic animal - an animal with genes transferred from another species - has made it to market. There is strong resistance from environmental groups, sections of the public are wary, and this is a lack of regulatory consensus. But even if some gene-edited animal products do eventually get approved, will the public want to eat them? We can anticipate a shift in mindset before there could be a high level of consumer adoption of GMO meats.

Sophisticated consumers will need valid and reliable scientific evidence about the compatibility of the products on the human ecosystem.

RELATED TRENDS •

There are also societal reservations and ethical concerns about GM livestock. (GMO compass)

•

A hostile landscape has made investors cautious and lack of government funding is stifling research. (Coussins, 2015)

•

There is no consensus on the safety of GMO products (Hilbeck, 2015)

•

The main issues of concern for human health are the potential to provoke allergic reaction and gene transfer (WHO).

sausage.html 4.

Hilbeck, A.,, et al. (2015). No scientific consensus on GMO safety. Environmental Sciences Europe 27 (4) Retrieved on February 16, 2016 from http://download. springer.com/static/pdf/92/art%253A10.

5.

Ledford, H (2015) CRISPR, the disruptor. Retrieved on February 14, 2016 from http://www.nature.com/news/crispr-the-disruptor-1.17673#/b1

6.

Macdonald, R. ( 2013). Facts about beef. Retrieved On February 14, 2016 from http://factsaboutbeef.com/tag/genetically-modified-food./

7.

Frahenkrug, S. ( 2013 ) Recombinetics Gene-Editing Technology Revolutionizes Animal Agriculture . Retrieved from http://recombinetics.com/node/59

8.

Ridley, M. ( 2013). Editing our genes, one letter at a time, Wall Street Journal. Retrieved http://www.wsj.com/articles/ SB10001424127887323482504578227661405130902articleBody16u

9.

Steenhuysen, J & Polansek, T. (2015). U.S. clears genetically modified salmon for human consumption. Reuters. Retrieved on February 14, 2016 from http://www. reuters.com/article/us-aquabounty-technologies-fda-idUSKCN0T826T20151120.

10. Stiers, J. A. (2013). Genetically Modified Salmon Student Scholarship. Paper 311.

Retrieved on February 16, 2016 from http://scholarship.shu.edu/cgi/viewcontent. cgi?article=1311&context=student_scholarship.

11. World Health Organization (WHO). Food safety. Retrieved on February 14, 2016 from http://www.who.int/foodsafety/areas_work/food-technology/faqgenetically-modified-food/en/

REFERENCES 1.

Carlson, D., Tan, S, Lillico, SG, Stverakova, D, Proudfoot, C, Christian, M, Voytas, DF, Long, CR, Whitelaw, CBA & Fahrenkrug, SC (2012) Efficient TALENmediated gene knockout in livestock. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America - PNAS, 109 (43) pp. 17382-7., 10.1073/ pnas.1211446109.

2.

Cossins, D. (2015) Retrieved on February 14, 2016 from http://www.bbc.com/ future/story/20150309-will-we-ever-eat-gm-meat

3.

GMO Compass. Retrieved on February 14, 2016 from http://www.gmo-compass. org/eng/grocery_shopping/processed_foods/32.genetic_engineering_meats_

Image above: Recombinetics is tweaking a few letters in the genomes of dairy cattle to render them hornless, while maintaining cherished milk-production qualities.

Retrieved from http://www.bbc.com/future/story/20150309-will-we-ever-eat-gm-meat

35

TECHNOLOGY

CULTURED FOOD

Worldwide demand for meat is growing fast but current livestock farming methods are unsustainable. Although still in development, cultured beef has the potential to be a significantly more sustainable route to beef production than conventional farming.

INDIVIDUAL CHANGE BOTH INDIVIDUAL + (SMALL SCALE) INSTITUTIONAL CHANGE

INSTITUTIONAL CHANGE (LARGE SCALE)

DESCRIPTION Modern biotechnology methods for culturing food will revolutionize the way foods are created. Recent discoveries in gene science are making it possible to manipulate the components in natural foods.

In combination with biofermentation, desirable natural compounds can now be produced in large amounts at a low cost and with little environmental impact. Moreover cows are a relatively inefficient way to convert grain or grass to meat and release a lot of greenhouse gas in the process. (Shetty, 2013).

MATURITY Humans have been culturing foods for millennia. Beer and wine brewing using yeast cultures began about 8,000 years ago and cultured foods then expanded to cheese, yogurt, soy sauce, sauerkraut, breads, and many more. However, cultured meat is relatively new and still in development.

SIGNALS

Image above: Human cheese made from microbes from the nose.

Retrieved on February 14, 2016 from https://dublin.sciencegallery.com/ growyourown/selfmade

Economics •

A biotechnology firm, Ginkgo Bioworks has already licensed eight organisms for the production of cultured food products (Ginkgo Bioworks, 2015).

Science •

Synthetic biology cheese harvest microbes from human bodies to make artisanal cheese to study the intersection of human and microbial cultures (Agapakis & Tolaas, 2013).

•

Synthetic biology can use microbes to make a new sugar substitute or the scent of a rose (International Science Times, 2013).

• 36

The world’s first laboratory-grown beef burger was created out of

a Petri dish. Food tasters declaring it tasted “close to meat” It was grown in-vitro from cattle stem cells at a cost of $332,000 now costs $12(Kelland, 2013).

Art •

GROW YOUR OWN, an exhibition created by Science Gallery at Trinity College Dublin addresses the applications and uncertain implications of synthetic biology. It featured eleven cheeses in total, made from bacterial cultures harvested from the skin of humans. (De Zeen Magazine 2013; Agapakis & Tolaas, 2013)

Environment •

“Scarcity issues are expected to plague world food and agriculture over the next few decades: competition for land and water, high

SCANNING energy prices and climate change all mean that the world has to produce more with less.” (Consensus Economic, 2009)

IMPLICATIONS While we can expect that regulatory systems, economic structures, and cultural practices will shape the life of an engineered organism in the future, one of the greatest challenges will be a societal one: as our bodies are infiltrated by designed life to meet our needs and animals are designed for human desires, how does a society come to terms with a future where “we are what we eat”, or “we eat what we are”?

6.

Kellend, K ( 2013). First taste of test-tube burger declared ‘close to meat

7.

Reuters. Retrieved on February 14, 2016 from http://www.reuters.com/article/usscience-meat-in-vitro-idUSBRE9740PL20130806

8.

Shetty,R. ( 2103) Ginkgo BioWorks, Inc. Retrieved on February 14, 2016 from http://ginkgobioworks.com/files/CulturedIngredients_PF2013.pdf

9.

Yun-Hwa, P. and Ofori, J.(2007) Innovations in food technology for health. Asia Pacific Journal of Clinical Nuturition;16 (Suppl 1):65-73.

Overall the signals indicate that we can expect commercialization of cultured meat and as long as consumers are prepared to buy it, it will be on our tables in the near future.

REFERENCES 1.

Agapakis, C & Tolaas, S. (2013). Selfmade Installation. Retrieved on February 14, 2016 https://dublin.sciencegallery.com/growyourown/selfmade

2.

Consensus Economics (2009) Future food landscape. Retrieved on February 14, 2016 http://www.consensuseconomics.com/News_and_Articles/Future_Food_ Supply_Issues420.htm

3.

Dezeen Magazine (2013). Olafurs’s Eliasson’s tears used to make cheese. Retrieved on February 14, 2016 from http://www.dezeen.com/2013/11/20/olafur-eliassontears-used-to-make-human-cheese/

4.

International Science Times.( 2013).Bacteria cheese: Scientists make dairy with cultures from human armpits, feet, belly buttons, ears, and noses. Retrieved on February 14, 2016 from http://www.isciencetimes.com/articles/6376/20131122/ bacteria-cheese-human-skin-arm-pits-feet-belly-button-tears-nose-michaelpollan.htm

5.

Jacobs, S. ( 2015) . Are microbes about to remake manufacturing? This synthetic biologist thinks so. Grist. Retrieved on February 14, 2016 from http://grist.org/ people/are-microbes-about-to-remake-manufacturing-this-synthetic-biologistthinks-so/

Image above: First taste of test-tube burger declared ‘close to meat’.

Retrieved on February 16, 2016 from http://www.reuters.com/news/picture/first-taste-of-testtube-burger-declared?articleId=USBRE9740PL20130806#K2BkjhicOtvmZvWO.99

37

TECHNOLOGY

FUTURE OF FOOD SHOPPING

The on-demand economy is creating an expectation of convenience for getting food on the table in an efficient, convenient and highly humanized way using new innovations in technology that will only scale up in the next 5-10 years.

INDIVIDUAL CHANGE BOTH INDIVIDUAL + (SMALL SCALE) INSTITUTIONAL CHANGE

INSTITUTIONAL CHANGE (LARGE SCALE)

DESCRIPTION Technology is transforming the way we shop and get our food into the kitchen. (Irish Times, 2015). While in-store shopping accounts for 92 percent of retail volume, consumers are expecting the same levels of personalization and customization that they get when they shop online; 58 percent of consumers want to get in-store product information and 19 percent of consumers are already browsing their mobile devices while in-store (IBM Research).

MATURITY Throughout history, people shopped for their food from farmers or retailers through in-store shopping or through a delivery service.

These two methods, along with on-line food shopping, still remain the primary methods but new interactive technology will allow for augmented shopping experiences.

SIGNALS •

Augmented reality is a technology that superimposes computergenerated images on a user’s view of the real world. It is constantly refined to offer consumers a more seductive shopping experience, and to help maximize profits for big retailers willing to invest in emerging realities (Irish Times, 2015).

•

IBM Research reports the development of a new mobile application that will help customers and retailers transform the shopping experience

•

IBM Research is looking at bringing all the benefits of online shopping into traditional stores through new augmented reality mobile shopping application that will give in-store shoppers instant product details and promotions through their mobile devices (IBM Research).

• 38

By providing in-store shoppers with the same kind of

Image above: The increasingly crowded delivery market. From https://www. rudebaguette.com/2015/10/20/rudevc-big-data-meets-haute-cuisine

personalized information that online shoppers receive, retailers can harness big data in order to cater to each individual on a more personal level and transform marketing into a convenient and welcomed service for consumers. (IBM) •

“A concept shop at Milan Expo explores how technology could transform the way we shop for food. Digital mirrors give shoppers information about the provenance of the product, the processes used in making it and its ingredients. At a glance, shoppers can see products’ carbon footprints, nutritional value and recipes.” (Irish Times, 2015)

•

As customers browse and purchase items inside the warehouseinspired space, information about them is processed by a computer and reinterpreted as marketing data by retailers.

SCANNING •

•

•

(Dezeen Magazine, 2015)

3.

The number of food delivery startups has ballooned in the past three years. Approximately 25 U.S.-based companies are delivering either prepared meals or ingredients for home cooking (Winfrey, 2015).

IBM. Augmented reality makes shopping more personal: New mobile application from IBM Research helps both consumers and retailers. Retrieved from http:// www.research.ibm.com/articles/augmented-reality.shtml.

4.

According to the U.S. Department of Agriculture there will be growth in the home-delivery and mail order food of approximately $25 billion per year of consumer spending.

(Winfrey, 2015).

Irish Times. (2015). The future of food shopping: holograms and cloud control?

Retrieved from http://www.irishtimes.com/news/consumer/the-future-offood-shopping-holograms-and-cloud-control-1.2287347 http://www.irishtimes. com/news/consumer/the-future-of-food-shopping-holograms-and-cloudcontrol-1.2287347

5.

Powell, C. (2015). How a wave of delivery startups are remaking grocery shopping.

Canadian Grocer. Retrieved from http://www.canadianbusiness.com/innovation/ how-a-wave-of-delivery-startups-are-remaking-grocery-shopping/

6.

Winfrey, G. (2015). Three startups feeding the food delivery bubble. Vision 2020.

Inc. Retrieved from http://www.inc.com/graham-winfrey/3-food-deliverystartups-competing-for-share-of-stomach.html.

7.

Watson, C. (2015). Carlo Ratti wants to design the future. WIRED UK. Retrieved from http://www.wired.co.uk/news/archive/2015-09/22/interview-with-carloratti-wired2015-speaker

Canada’s online grocery industry is expected to reach $800 million by 2020. While that is a fraction of countries such as the U.K. (US$15 billion in 2015), France (US$9 billion) and global leader China (US$41), it is trending upwards. (Chris Powell, 2015).

IMPLICATIONS The current investment growth in augmented technologies for enhanced shopping and home delivery services is an indication that consumers are looking for these services. As consumers with disposable incomes increase there is a growing trend to using innovations in technology to make food selections in a more interactive and time efficient manner while not sacrificing the quality of the food. (Bivens, 2015) It also will allow food retailers to get to know their customers purchasing preferences through new the interactive digital technologies.

REFERENCES 1.

Bivens, M. (2015). Imaging the future of food. Rude Baquette. Retrieved from https://www.rudebaguette.com/2015/10/20/rudevc-big-data-meets-haute-cuisine/

2.

Dezeen Magazine (2015) Carlo Ratti designs digital supermarket at Milan Expo 2015. Retrieved from http://www.dezeen.com/2015/05/01/carlo-ratti-digitalsupermarket-milan-expo-2015-mit-coop-italia/

Image above: Designer Carlo Ratti’s concept shop at Milan Expo showing holograms.

From http://www.irishtimes.com/news/consumer/the-future-of-food-shopping-holograms-and-cloud-control-1.2287347.

39

ECONOMICS

LOW INCOME? LOW HEALTH Changing awareness of the relationship between low income and food insecurity is resulting in push toward more governmental policies and programs

INDIVIDUAL CHANGE BOTH INDIVIDUAL + (SMALL SCALE) INSTITUTIONAL CHANGE

INSTITUTIONAL CHANGE (LARGE SCALE)

DESCRIPTION Increased awareness of the relationship between income and food security is resulting in governmental changes in North America in the form of national and international policies. New and upcoming changes include subsidiaries for low-income families, the establishment of a living wage rather than a minimum wage, increasing social assistance rates, and offering healthy food supplement in order to create a stronger social safety net.¹

MATURITY The relationship between low income and food insecurity has been an ongoing problem, but it has just recently been publicized and acted on by North American governments. A lot more still needs to be done in order to alleviate this problem.

SIGNALS •

There has been a notable increased need for campus food banks across the country.²

•

Doctors prescribing vegetables: Doctors provide families in the FVRx program with a “prescription” to eat fruits and vegetables.

The families also are given nutritional education, recipes and, most important of all, so-called Health Bucks that are redeemable for produce at a local farmers’ market — at twice the amount that the families could purchase with food stamps alone.

•

Wholesome Wave Healthy Food Commerce Investments (HFCI) “team improves the supply chain for local food by working with regional food hubs to structure investments and enter large wholesale markets. The team collaborates with and advises the businesses, government entities, investors, and customers that are building a vibrant, just and sustainable food system³.”

•

Subsidy for groceries: “Nutrition North Canada (NNC) is a

40

Image above: statistics on food insecurity in Canada⁴

Government of Canada subsidy program launched on April 1, 2011 to bring healthy food to isolated Northern communities.

NNC works with stores across the North and food suppliers in southern Canada to ensure Northerners have better access to perishable nutritious food.”⁴ •

There are 600,000 more Canadians affected by food insecurity now than in 2007-2008. 62.2 per cent of food insecure homes are working households, 70 per cent of households on social assistance are food insecure, with 29 per cent experiencing severe deprivation 45 per cent of households in Nunavut reported some level of food insecurity⁴.

SCANNING

IMPLICATIONS •

Economic and political assistance can provide low-income individuals with the opportunity to improve their health by continuing to implement policies and programs that encourage healthy food purchases

•

However, these policies and programs have not always proven effective in the areas that are most needed, such as Northern Canada.⁵

•

Said policies and programs can also encourage a detrimental dependence thus causing low-income individuals to become trapped in a system of needing help and receiving help instead of changing on their end.

•

Policies and programs that aim to improve the economic situation of lower-income individuals, if implemented properly, have the ability to improve the economic distribution in certain regions. They also have the ability to worsen them, which could amount to more crime, homelessness, etc.

3.

Healthy Food Commerce Investments. (n.d.). Retrieved November 25, 2015, from https://www.wholesomewave.org/our-initiatives/healthy-food-commerceinvestments/

4.

Kukasawdia, S. (2014, February 6). Millions of working Canadians struggle to afford food: U of T report. Retrieved November 25, 2015, from http://news. utoronto.ca/millions-working-canadians-struggle-afford-food-u-t-report

5.

How Nutrition North Canada works. (2014, November 18). Retrieved November 25, 2015, from http://www.nutritionnorthcanada.gc.ca/ eng/1415538638170/1415538670874

REFERENCES 1.

Is Healthy Food Affordable for Everyone in Hamilton? (2013, September 1). Retrieved November 25, 2015, from http://www2.hamilton.ca/ NR/rdonlyres/7E552636-5E65-4E3C-8094-44CDCC66450F/0/ IsHealthyFoodAffordableHamilton.pdf

2.

As Tuition Rises, Food Banks Appear At Canadian Universities. (2015, August 25).

Retrieved November 25, 2015, from http://www.huffingtonpost.ca/2015/08/25/ campus-food-bank-use-is-rising-along-with-tuition-costs-studentsgroup_n_8038820.html

Image above: http://photos.nationalservice.gov/Servegov/As-Seen-onServegov/imvRV6qv 41

ENVIRONMENT

ECO CONSCIOUS DINING A growing consciousness surrounding food sources and their impact on health and the environment

INDIVIDUAL CHANGE BOTH INDIVIDUAL + (SMALL SCALE) INSTITUTIONAL CHANGE

INSTITUTIONAL CHANGE (LARGE SCALE)

DESCRIPTION There has been a movement growing over the last number of years demanding a move away from industrial food production.

Much has taken place and support has grown for the 100-mile diet, where consumers are encouraged to eat locally to decrease their carbon footprint, eat better and support their local farmers.

In many countries around the world, there is greater support for food cooperatives and community supported agriculture. There is a greater global emphasis on the importance of healthy eating especially among baby boomers. In recent years, there has also been an increasing push to introduce healthier and local food choices to school lunches in developed countries.

MATURITY This trend is not in its early beginnings but is somewhere in the middle of the S curve. As the planet’s population continues to grow and as consumers become more educated about their option. This trend will continue to gain momentum.

Image above: fresh produce at the local farmer’s market in California Photo credit: http://www.transitiontownsca.org/page/member-broadcasts

SIGNALS

to nutrition (Technomic Blog, 2013).

•

Greater numbers of students in schools are eating locally sourced food. It is a movement that is gaining momentum (Richmond 2015).

•

Growing acceptance and popularity of trash to table movement (repurposing of edible food items) (Carman, 2013).

•

Community Supported Agriculture (CSA) provides consumers and farmers with alternatives to the industrial forms of faming.

China has over 800 CSAs with 100,000 consumers and the trend is growing (Hitchman, 2015).

IMPLICATIONS •

The local/organic movement will manifest differently in different regions of the world.

Sixty-four percent of consumers today—up from 57 percent in 2010—agree that it is important to eat healthy and pay attention

•

There is tremendous acceptance of new ideas and technologies introduced in this space

•

42

•

Touted benefits of cooperative farming that reduces carbon footprint and benefits consumers and farmers alike (Priebe, 2011).

•

Boomers are demanding healthier food options in restaurants and voting with their wallets (Dagliden, 2010).

SCANNING •

Consumers who are making eco conscious decisions when it comes to their food are also making other eco conscious purchasing decisions. There is a potential to offer new product combinations.

•

It is a trend that is gaining momentum and linked to issues of food sovereignty and food security.

•

Eco conscious food decisions are linked to core set of values and have ardent supporters and fans.

RELATED TRENDS •

Production of food in small batches with less processing and the use of simple ingredients.

•

Reuse of food items.

•

Increased popularity of concepts related to food sharing and the feeding of the hungry.

•

Working with farmers to empower them to take control back of their farming practices and taking that control away from industrial farms.

•

A counter trend is all about the mass production of food and the use of enhanced seeds and pesticides to increase yield.

REFERENCES 1.

Carman, T. (2013, January 8). Fine dining’s trash-to-table movement. Retrieved November 22, 2015, from https://www.washingtonpost.com/lifestyle/food/ fine-dinings-trash-to-table-movement/2013/01/07/1da8af2e-55fa-11e2-bf3e76c0a789346f_story.html

2.

Dagliden, J. (2010, September 02). Boomers want healthier food in restaurants.

Retrieved November 22, 2015, from https://www.lsnglobal.com/behaviours/ article/1467/boomers-want-healthier-food-in-restaurants#paywall-form

3.

Hitchman, J. (2015, June 01). Community supported Agriculture Thriving in China. Retrieved November 22, 2015, from http://www.agriculturesnetwork.org/ magazines/global/rural-urban-linkages/community-supported-agriculture-china

4.

Priebe, M. (2011, January 03). What is a Food Co-op and CSA. Retrieved November 22, 2015, from http://www.ecolife.com/health-food/eating-local/food-coops-csa. html

5.

Richmond, E. (2015, October 21). More Students Are Eating Locally Sourced Food. Retrieved November 22, 2015, from http://www.theatlantic.com/education/ archive/2015/10/farm-to-school-gains-momentum/411562/

6.

What’s “Healthy” at Restaurants? Consumers’ Definitions are Evolving ( 2013, January 5). T. Blog. Retrieved on November 23, 2015 from https://blogs.technomic. com/whats-healthy-at-restaurants

43

ENVIRONMENT

RETHINKING FOOD ‘WASTE’ A collective global consciousness is being raised to help consumers, producers and sellers change wasteful habits, which puts consumable food in landfills.

INDIVIDUAL CHANGE BOTH INDIVIDUAL + (SMALL SCALE) INSTITUTIONAL CHANGE

INSTITUTIONAL CHANGE (LARGE SCALE)

DESCRIPTION It is estimated that Canadian’s throw out $31 billion dollars’ worth of food, every year, due to misinformation around food expiration date labeling, over-buying and perceptions associated with food aesthetics. Policy changes, new innovations and awareness campaigns are attempting to shift consumer consciousness to keep good food, out of the bin.

MATURITY Food waste audits have been occurring officially since the 1990s.

Emerging policies and technologies to provide awareness and solutions for consumers have been emerging within the last 2 years.

SIGNALS Policy Response:

•

USDA National Food Waste Challenge to reduce food waste by 50% by 2030 underway (USDA, 2015).

•

A Calgary councillor is urging colleagues across Canada to push the federal government to offer tax incentives for food producers and suppliers who donate unsold edible items (Klingbeil, 2015)

Media:

•

A Dutch grocery store has opened up a restaurant, InStock which serves lunch and dinner daily, made from food close to expiration date (Peters, 2015).

•

NRP/PBS series, teams up with top chefs to share tips of how to capture wasted food: Juicer Pulp burgers, Sour Milk Pancakes (Top, 2015).

•

A 10-minute segment of John Oliver was devoted to investigating the vast amount of food waste in America (Oliver, 2015).

44

Image above: A shot from, “Just Eat it: A Food Waste Story” documentary. This dumpster, behind a President’s Choice outlet is completely filled with hummus. The best before date was 3 1⁄2 weeks away (Baldwin, 2015).

•

Two Canadian documentary filmmakers, go 6 months eating only food discarded or food bound for the dumpster. They captured a total of $20,000 worth of food (Baldwin, 2015)

Technology Industry: •

Smart Fridge Technology aims to reduce food waste by placing cameras in fridges that homeowners can access when at the grocery store (Lam, 2015).

•

Concept Kitchen, a thought experiment partnership between IDEO and IKEA, creates ‘open pantry’. Using shelves equipped with inductive cooling technology to reduce the need for refrigeration, it easily shows what food is in the home (Lam, 2015).

SCANNING IMPLICATIONS By better understanding food waste patterns, individual consumers will directly be able to participate in solutions to change unconscious behavior contributing to food waste. Through awareness of economic loss and environmental impact, supply chain and policy experts could begin to make decisions that could better improve the system of food waste recovery.

RELATED TRENDS Decomposing food waste accounts for a vast amount of methane released into the atmosphere, contributing directly to climate change (Manyck, 2014).

7.

Mandyck, J. (2014, November 18).The low-hanging fruit for climate protection is rotting. Retrieved November 24, 2015, from http://www.greenbiz.com/article/ low-hanging-fruit-climate-protection-rotting 13. Freegan.info. (2015). Retrieved November 24, 2015, from http://freegan.info

8.

Oliver, J. (Writer). (2015, July 30). Last Week Tonight with John Oliver [Television series episode]. In John Oliver. New York: HBO.

9.

Peters, A. (2015, November 5).This Restaurant Will Make You A Meal From Food Waste. Retrieved November 24, 2015.

10. Spinder, K. (2014, October 16). Afgeprijsd! – The first app in the world fighting food waste head on. Retrieved November 24, 2015 11. USDA | OCE | U.S. Food Waste Challenge. (n.d.). Retrieved November 24, 2015, from http://www.usda.gov/oce/foodwaste/faqs.htm

REFERENCES 1.

Baldwin, G., & Rustemeyer, J. (Directors). (2015). Just Eat It: A Food Waste Story [Motion picture]. Canada. https://www.knowledge.ca/program/just-eat-it

2.

Don’t Toss That Sour Milk! And Other Tips To Cut Kitchen Food Waste. (2015, September 23). Retrieved November 24, 2015, from http://www.npr.org/sections/ thesalt/2015/09/23/441460163/don-t-toss-that-sour-milk-10-tips-cut-food-w astein-your-kitchen

3.

Food Waste Publications. (2014, December 10). Retrieved November 24, 2015, from http://vcm-international.com/new-repor t-annual-food-waste-in-canada-is31-billion/

4.

Huebert, S. (2015, November 12). Gap between consumers and producers promotes food waste. Retrieved November 24, 2015

5.

Klingbeil, A. (2015, November 22). Councillor wants to diver t food waste from landfill with tax breaks. Retrieved November 24, 2015, from http://calgaryherald. com/news/local-news/councillor-wants-to-divert-food-waste-from-landfill-withtax-breaks

6.

Lam, J. (2015, November 23).Technology offers new solutions for the mounting food waste problem in Hong Kong. Retrieved November 24, 2015

Image above: A shot from John Oliver’s, Last Week Tonight, Food Waste episode.

These are ‘imperfect’ apples and lettuce heads which cannot be sold at the supermarket (Oliver, 2015).

45

ENVIRONMENT

FIGHTING COLONY COLLAPSE 1 in 3 bites we chew are directly linked to honey bee pollination. With increasing evidence of colony collapse, scientists and innovators are using technology to ensure pollination remains part of our natural world.

INDIVIDUAL CHANGE BOTH INDIVIDUAL + (SMALL SCALE) INSTITUTIONAL CHANGE

INSTITUTIONAL CHANGE (LARGE SCALE)

DESCRIPTION Since 2006, a third of all US bee colonies have collapsed. The collapse has been attributed to pesticide use, habitat loss and homogenous garden and agricultural practices. Bees face an increasingly grim fate going into winter 2015. A hive parasite which causes deformed wings has been identified in colonies worldwide.

The spreading of the Varroa Mite parasite has been linked to the worldwide human trade of bees for crop pollination. Policy, technology, science and awareness aim to combat this pressing issue.

MATURITY Colony collapse was first reported in 2006. Science and technology innovation research has been in development since then.

SIGNALS Policy: •

Ontario was the first government in North America to ban the use of pesticides which contain neonicotinoid, or neonic. These pesticides have been scientifically proven in the Worldwide Integrated Assessment to confuse bee’s sense of smell and direction (Suzuki, 2014).

Science and Technology:

•

Researchers have identified a bacterium which can be used to nourish bee larva in the hive as they grow. This in turn increases their pollination capacity as they age (Kaplan, 2015).

•

Biology Professors at York and UBC are heading up a four-year long project which aims to genetically modify bees to be healthier and more resistant to Canadian winter weather (Chan, 2015).

•

46

Harvard University is part of research team working to develop, RoboBees. The practical applications for this project are wide

Image above: Harvard University’s nanorobotic innovation, Robobees. This could provide a potential solution for autonomous pollination if colony collapse does occur (Robobees, 2015).

reaching, but autonomous pollinating of field crops remains a main goal (RoboBees, 2015).

Awareness:

•

NPR Thanksgiving broadcast, looks at what would be off the Thanksgiving table, if bee colonies were to collapse completely (Aubrey, 2015).

•

London artist Louis Masai Michel, raises awareness of colony collapse with urban graffiti (Chaisson, 2015).

•

Whole Foods and Xerces, aimed to bring awareness to this potentially devastating situation in stores. Workers temporarily removed all produce that comes from plants dependent on pollinators (Breyer, 2013).

SCANNING IMPLICATIONS The table of the future would look very different if honey bee colonies continued to face threats to their existence. It is in the benefit of policy experts and innovators to do all they can to help control this threat. Science and technology are innovating in the face of this issue, however, the rate of collapse may not give adequate time to safely test solutions.

RELATED TRENDS

7.

Robobees. (2015). Retrieved November 24, 2015, from http://robobees.seas. harvard.edu

8.

Sanders, R. (2016). Worldwide bee epidemic linked to human cause: Colony trafficking. Retrieved February 12, 2016, from http://news.berkeley. edu/2016/02/10/worldwide-bee-epidemic-linked-to-human-cause-colonytrafficking/

9.

Suzuki, D. (2014, November 25). Ontario takes tough, timely action to reduce harm from neonicotinoid pesticides. Retrieved November 24, 2015.

10. The Future Of Nanotechnology And Computers So Small You Can Swallow Them.

(2015, November 23). Retrieved November 24, 2015.

Nanorobotics allows for a computer aided exploration of our world, at extremely small scale (The Future, 2015). Humans have been genetically modifying foods to make our crops more robust for over 30 years (Entine, 2014).

REFERENCES 1.

Adele, A. (Writer). (2015, November 24). Thanksgiving Buzz: Pesticides Linked to Diminished Bee Health [Radio series episode]. In FOOD. NRP

2.

Breyer, M. (2013, June 17).What a grocery store without bees looks like. Retrieved November 18, 2015, from http://www.mnn.com/food/healthy-eating/stories/whata-grocery-store-without-bees-looks-like

3.

Chan, E. (2015, November 10). Scientists hope to develop made-for-Canada honeybees. Retrieved November 18, 2015, from http://www.ctvnews.ca/sci-tech/ scientists-hope-to-develop-made-for-canada-honeybees-1.2651022

4.

Chaisson, C. (2015, March 30). A London street artist is spray-painting city walls to #SaveTheBees. Retrieved November 18, 2015, from http://www.onearth.org/ earthwire/save-the-bees-street-art

5.

Entine, J. (2014, September 17).The Debate About GMO Safety Is Over, Thanks To A New Trillion-Meal Study. Retrieved November 24, 2015.

6.

Kaplan, K. (2015, May 7). Newly named bacteria help honey bee larvae thrive.

Retrieved November 18, 2015, from http://phys.org/news/2015-05-newly-bacteriahoney-bee-larvae.html

Image above: Photo taken by Ferdinand Feys. London artist Louis Masai Michel spreads awareness with his graffiti campaign in East London. He works across Europe to spread awareness of colony collapse (Chaisson, 2015).

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ENVIRONMENT

FISHING FOR SOLUTIONS The adjustment in fishing priorities from revenue to environment

INDIVIDUAL CHANGE BOTH INDIVIDUAL + (SMALL SCALE) INSTITUTIONAL CHANGE

INSTITUTIONAL CHANGE (LARGE SCALE)

DESCRIPTION The fish crisis has driven has started to create a movement away from the original capitalist perspective and more towards an environmental perspective. High-tech harvesting and wasteful management have brought world fish stocks to dangerous lows.

Global fisheries have been using new fishing technology with vastly increased killing power, a shadowy networks of huge international companies making huge profits from the trade, negligent fisheries management and enforcement, and consumers’ indifference to the fate of the fish they choose to buy.1 There are simply too many boats chasing too few fish to sustain the current consumption rate of fish.

In recent years, there has been an increased shift in the way fishing industries are allowed to use natural resources such as quota systems for certain bodies of water, encouraging fishing “down the food chain” (e.g.: jellyfish), and aquaculture’s increased popularity

MATURITY Though this adjustment is a great start, the fishing industry still has a long way to go. It is currently approaching a peaking point but may soon decrease in productivity.

SIGNALS •

•

48

Turning the high seas into “a fish bank for the world”.2 A 2014 study proposed the bold idea of closing the high seas to fishing outright, and found that doing so would actually increase the profits earned by fisheries as well as improve fish stocks. ² Scientists claim this will not affect the fishing industry’s economic returns, and will ensure that profits from fisheries are more equitably distributed.³ Iceland has a sea limit around the island which marked off the zone that could be fished by Icelanders alone to protect the diminishing fishing stock, particularly cod and haddock.⁴

Image above from http://ngm.nationalgeographic.com/2007/04/global-fisheriescrisis/montaigne-tex The giant bluefin tuna can grow to 12 feet (4 meters) in length, weigh 1,500 pounds (680 kilograms), and live for 30 years. It is an exquisitely hydrodynamic creation, able to streak through water at 25 miles (40 kilometers) an hour and dive deeper than half a mile (0.8 kilometers). Unlike most other fish, it has a warm-blooded circulatory system that enables it to roam from the Arctic to the tropics. Its buttery belly meat, liberally layered with fat, is considered the finest sushi in the world. Over the past decade, a high-tech armada, often guided by spotter planes, has pursued giant bluefin from one end of the Mediterranean to the other, annually netting tens of thousands of the fish, many of them illegally

•

Regional Fisheries Management Organizations (countries that share a practical and/or financial interest in managing and conserving fish stocks in a particular region) have become significantly more common in recent years.⁵

SCANNING IMPLICATIONS

5.

This adjustment in priorities poses potential for stronger underwater ecosystems as a result of the opportunity to grow without (international fishing) harm

Guide to RFMOs. (2012, February 23). Retrieved November 25, 2015, from http:// www.pewtrusts.org/en/imported-old/other-resources/2012/02/23/guide-toregional-fisheries-management-organizations-rmfos

6.

•

It also poses potential for completely different underwater ecosystems as a result of an increase in what is now sparse and a decrease in the fish from the bottom of the food chain

How much fish do we eat? (2015, January 30). Retrieved November 25,2015, from https://allyouneedisbiology.wordpress.com/2015/01/30/how-much-fish-do-weeat/

7.

Kourous, G. (n.d.). Many of the world’s poorest people depend on fish.Retrieved November 25, 2015, from http://www.fao.org/Newsroom/en/news/2005/102911/ index.html

•

Impoverished people whose only source of protein is fish are put at risk7

•

This shift of priorities may cause an improvement in population health as a result of safer and more environmentally-friendly practices

•

A change in fishing practices can significantly change the fishing, fish vending, seafood/sushi industries and many more that currently rely on mass amounts of fishing for profits.

•

REFERENCES 1.

Montaigne, F. (2007, April 1). Global Fisheries Crisis. Retrieved November 24, 2015, from http://ngm.nationalgeographic.com/2007/04/global-fisheries-crisis/ montaigne-text

2.

Costello, C. (2014, March 25). Close the High Seas to Fishing? Retrieved November 25, 2015, fromhttp://journals.plos.org/plosbiology/article?id=10.1371/journal. pbio.1001826

3.

Sekar, S. (2015, May 22). How to solve the global fish crisis? Ban fishing on the high seas. Retrieved November 25, 2015, from http://news.mongabay.com/2015/05/ how-to-solve-the-global-fish-crisis-ban-fishing-onthe-high-seas/

4.

Alter, B. (2009, June 3). Iceland is the Success Story of Sustainable Fishing.

Retrieved November 25, 2015, from http://www.treehugger.com/corporateresponsibility/iceland-is-the-success-story-of-sustainable-fishing.html

Image above: The evolution of the world population from 1800 to 2015 and the increase of the fish consumption for person in the 1960s (9.9 kg) and in 2014 (19.2 kg) from https://allyouneedisbiology.wordpress.com/2015/01/30/how-much-fish-do-weeat/ 49

POLITICS

LABEL GAZING Increased interest in food labelling, nutritional content and food production methods.

INDIVIDUAL CHANGE BOTH INDIVIDUAL + (SMALL SCALE) INSTITUTIONAL CHANGE

INSTITUTIONAL CHANGE (LARGE SCALE)

DESCRIPTION The last number of years has seen an increase in consciousness around all things food related. Consumers are more engaged than ever and looking to food labels to find out about what to avoid and what foods offer healthy options. There has been a greater push by consumers for greater transparency and the disclosure of ingredients, calorie counts in all foods. There seems to be an agreement on the need for improvements to the current labelling system, however, stalling tactics by the food industry have meant that label reading and interpretation is a hit and miss art and not an exact science.

MATURITY This trend is here to stay and consumers from Millennials to baby boomers are looking to make healthy food selections. It is expected to reach a tipping point with time and sustained consumer pressure to create a tangible and meaningful shift in how food is labelled.

SIGNALS

Image above: Truth in labelling from http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/6923814/UKofficials-accused-of-scuppering-compulsory-food-labelling-scheme.html

•

Food labels show ingredients, prevent health risks and allow for informed consumer decision making (Tierny, 2013).

•

•

Food labels must be modernized to reflect actual content of ingredients. There is a direct link between certain ingredients and certain diseases (Silverglade, 2010).

IMPLICATIONS

Food industry has lobbied to halt modifications/improvements to food labels (Sacks, 2014).

•

Move to include health-warning labels on soda cans that are full of sugar. (Khazan, 2014).

•

There are implications for the food industry and associated costs related to a decrease in the use of preservatives

•

Miscounting and inaccurate representation of calories by food manufacturers on food labels (Hilts, 2015).

•

•

Consumers are more interested in food labels to find out about nutritional content and food production. However, these labels can be misinterpreted (Kovoski, 2015).

More transparent and clear labelling will allow consumers to make better food choices and in some cases decrease certain preventable diseases

•

Better labelling will help fuel the conversation around healthier options that are more sustainable and nourishing

•

Greater incentive for innovations in the food industry to find

50

SCANNING healthy options that are accessible and not laced with chemicals.

RELATED TRENDS •

There is a greater sense of curiosity and engagement by consumers regarding all issues related to how and where they get their food from. The move to local and organic, the 100-mile diet, the rise of urban gardens are all closely interconnected.

•

A higher level of consciousness around what consumers eat is also tied to other consumer decisions

•

A counter trend is related to the mass production and increased influence of the food industry lobby that refuses to make meaningful changes to the food labelling system.

REFERENCES 1.

Heller, L. (2007, October 31). More consumers read product labels, says report.

Retrieved November 22, 2015, from http://www.foodnavigator-usa.com/ Suppliers2/More-consumers-read-product-labels-says-report

2.

Hilts, P. (2015, April 27). On Food Labels, Calorie Miscounts. Retrieved November 22, 2015, from http://well.blogs.nytimes.com/2015/04/27/on-food-labels-caloriemiscounts/?_r=0

3.

Khazan, O. (2014, February 18). The Case for Health-Warning Labels on Soda. Retrieved November 22, 2015, from http://www.theatlantic.com/health/ archive/2014/02/the-case-for-health-warning-labels-on-soda

4.

Kovoski, J. (2015, November 09). Ag economist looks at how consumers interpret food labels - SOURCE. Retrieved November 22, 2015, from http://source.colostate. edu/ag-economist-looks-at-how-consumers-interpret-food-labels/

5.

Silverglade, B., & Heller, I. (2010). Food Labeling. Food Regulation, 47-92. doi:10.1002/9780470409695.ch3

6.

Tierny, K. (2013, February 14). 5 Reasons Why Labels Are Important. Retrieved November 22, 2015, from http://blog.paladinpos.com/5-reasons-why-labels-areimportant/

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POLITICS

RECOGNISING ANIMAL SENTIENCE A mounting understanding that pigs, cows and chickens have the advanced ability to perceive, sense and experience, physical, emotional and social circumstances.

INDIVIDUAL CHANGE BOTH INDIVIDUAL + (SMALL SCALE) INSTITUTIONAL CHANGE

INSTITUTIONAL CHANGE (LARGE SCALE)

DESCRIPTION The conditions of suffering that animals face in the industrial farm industry are being addressed with emerging policies declaring, ‘Animals as Sentient’. Under this consideration, animals have the right to be treated not merely as property, but as living creatures, with requirements for health and happiness.

MATURITY Animals Rights activists have been fighting to raise awareness around industrialized farming practices for years. New awareness spread with policy changes in 2015.

SIGNALS Policy Response:

•

France officially declared, ‘Animals as Sentient Beings’ overruling civil code set by Napoleon (Animals, 2015).

•

Amendment to New Zealand’s Animal Welfare Act, recognizing “that animals are sentient” (Animal Welfare, 2015)

•

Quebec legislation introduced a bill to increase fines around animal cruelty. The bill states that “animals are not things - they are sentient beings and have biological needs” (Paradis, 2015).

News Reports: •

Exposés declaring that the treatment of domesticated animals is the most pressing ethical issue of our time. Major news reports containing staggering statistics that 10s of billions of animals, who have the ability to sense and feel, are living and dying in horrible conditions (Harai, 2015).

Image above: An awareness campaign explaining the similarities between pigs and dogs by iVegan.ca, posted on the TTC subway (Jenny Whyte, November 23, 2015).

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SCANNING Art/Media Awareness Campaigns:

REFERENCES

•

1.

Animals in France finally recognized as ‘living, sentient beings’ (2015, January 29).

Retrieved November 22, 2015.

2.

Animal Welfare Amendment Bill. (2015). Retrieved November 20, 2015, from http://www.legislation.govt.nz/bill/government/2013/0107/latest/whole. html?search=sw_096be8ed81047b83_sentient_25_se&p=1#DLM5174810

3.

Crawford, E. (2015, March 17). Vegan is going mainstream, trend data suggests.

Retrieved November 24, 2015.

4.

Farm Animal Statistics: Slaughter Totals. (2015). Retrieved November 22, 2015, from http://www.humanesociety.org/news/resources/research/stats_slaughter_ totals. html

5.

Ganga, M. (2015, May 4). The world’s first vegan mini-mall. Yeah, you’re in Portland. Retrieved November 22, 2015.

6.

Harari, Y. (2015, September 25). Industrial farming is one of the worst crimes in history. Retrieved November 21, 2015.

7.

Hundreds Of Activists Covered In Blood Protest To Call A Stop To “Animal Holocaust”. (2015, September 29). Retrieved November 22, 2015.

8.

Paradis, P. (2015). An Act to improve the legal situation of animals. National Assembly, Bill 54 (Session 1, 41 Legislature).

9.

The End of Meat: Movie Homepage. (n.d.). Retrieved November 21, 2015, from http://www.theendofmeat.com/en.html#film

•

The End of Meat is a feature length currently in production. It aims to imagine what living in a truly compassionate society, without killing or exploiting animals would look like (End of Meat, 2015).

Hundreds of demonstrators staged a “human” slaughterhouse at Place de Palais Royal in Paris to draw awareness to animal exploitation (Hundreds, 2015).

Statistics: •

400 million fewer animals were killed in 2015 than in 2007 (Farm, 2015).

IMPLICATIONS Giving animals sentient rights will alter what governments deem acceptable for industrialized farming practices. Growing awareness of animal’s sentient qualities, will alter people’s participation in the meat industry. Ethically sourced and created meat will continue to gain value. Meat manufacturing will see continue to see a decrease in the number of animals needed to be raised for consumption.

RELATED TRENDS Cultured Meat, in vitro meat and victimless meat research undergoing testing to lower cost as well as to minimize impact on animals (Cultured Beef, 2015). New data reports Veganism and flexitarians is on the rise in America (Crawford, 2015). Environmental factors affecting widespread climate change can be directly linked to practices occurring in factory farming (35 Mind, 2015).

10. What is Cultured Beef. (2015). Retrieved November 24, 2015, http://culturedbeef. net/what-is-it/ .

11. 35 Mind-Shattering Facts Linking Factory Farming to Climate Change. (n.d.).

Retrieved November 24, 2015. http://www.peta.org/features/meat-climatechange/

53

VALUES

THE PEOPLE vs. FOOD SCIENCE A growing divide between scientific research and public opinion with respect to GMOs, toxins, and climate change presents polarized ideas on how to feed a hungry planet.

INDIVIDUAL CHANGE BOTH INDIVIDUAL + (SMALL SCALE) INSTITUTIONAL CHANGE

INSTITUTIONAL CHANGE (LARGE SCALE)

DESCRIPTION There is a growing divide between public opinion and scientific fact, with dramatically differing views on critical issues such as toxins in food¹, climate change, and GMOs². This split in opinion is partially exasperated by the media, who report on studies that present contradictory data (e.g. red wine is good or red wine is bad³), or report poorly-conducted studies without critical analysis4,5.

As a result, confused consumers distrust science, and often turn instead to celebrity opinion⁶. Unfortunately, their opinions may not be good advice, and in fact can be damaging (e.g. the impact of Jenny McCarthy’s views on vaccination or Gwyneth Paltrow’s latest obsession with steam cleaning her genitalia)⁶. In essence, there is a broken relationship between science and the public, and this divide is hindering the innovations required to feed a hungry planet⁷.

MATURITY This trend has been escalating for several years now, but has only recently singled out as an important issue. While it may take time to resolve this divide (and it is unlikely to be completely resolved), it is later on the trend curve due to its growing visibility.

Image above: The results of a Pew Research study, as reported by National Geographic, show some major divides between scientific opinion and the opinion of the general public2,9

•

Dr. Johannes Bohannan’s deliberately published a poorlyconducted study that showed eating chocolate contributes to weight loss. The study went viral, exposing the poor standards of scientific journalism⁵.

•

An obesity researcher recently criticised a Coca Cola funded study that said that exercise was more important than diet for weight control, highlighting the issue of biased research reported in the media10.

•

A recent study showed that contradictory media reports on nutrition leads to consumer confusion⁴.

•

CBS reporter Jessica Firger recently examined consumer distrust and confusion around science, and the shocking influence that

SIGNALS •

A Harvard Health publication warned of the “dubious science” behind popular detox diets¹.

•

“The War on Science” was National Geographic’s headline story for March 2015, questioning why many “reasonable people” are now doubting scientific findings⁸.

•

A study by Pew Research Center found a large gap between scientific and public opinion on topics like GMOs, climate change, vaccinations 2,9.

54

SCANNING celebrity has on shaping public opinion, in an article titled “Why do we believe celebrity pseudoscience?⁶.

•

Part of National Geographic’s Future of Food series, “The Carnivore’s Dilemma” showed that despite consumer’s poor views of beef feedlots, they may hold the key to feeding a hungry planet ⁷.

IMPLICATIONS •

This trend will have significant influence over the widespread adoption of innovation in the food industry. While scientists may find appropriate solutions to food issues that face us today, these innovations cannot take hold without public buy-in.

•

At the same time, the public may push for adoption of solutions that while popular, are potentially ineffective. The field of science will need major bridge building initiatives and better public relations to win back the trust and understanding of the mass market.

•

Journalists and celebrities can be the mediator between these groups, but perhaps the scientific industry should adopt unorthodox approaches, like co-creation or citizen science, to help rebuild trust.

RELATED TRENDS •

•

Biohacking, where institutions and individuals are exploring innovative gene editing techniques to alter existing organisms and potentially create synthetic life forms. This trend is an extreme version of GMOs, and potentially walks a fine line of ethics that should be discussed in a public forum11.

Citizen Science is a counter trend that involves engaging the public in scientific research, showing the potential to bridge the gap between consumers and scientists12.

REFERENCES 1.

Harvard Health - The Dubious Practice of Detox. (2008, June). Retrieved from http://www.health.harvard.edu/family_health_guide/the-dubious-practice-ofdetox

2.

Vergano, D. (2015, January 29). Poll Reveals Rift Between Scientists, Regular Folks. Retrieved November 13, 2015, from http://news.nationalgeographic.com/ news/2014/06/150129-public-opinion-aaas-health-education-science/

3.

Dean, S. (2014, July 11). Is Wine Good for You? Or Bad? What Does Science Say? Retrieved November 24, 2015, from http://www.bonappetit.com/trends/article/iswine-good-for-you-a-look-at-scientific-studies-through-the-millennia

4.

Health Behavior News Service. (2014, January 28). Contradictory nutrition news creates consumer confusion. ScienceDaily. Retrieved November 21, 2015 from www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2014/01/140128153814.htm

5.

Bohannon, J. (2015, May 27). I Fooled Millions Into Thinking Chocolate Helps Weight Loss. Here’s How. Retrieved November 15, 2015, from http://io9.com/ifooled-millions-into-thinking-chocolate-helps-weight-1707251800

6.

Firger, J. (2015, February 5). Why do we believe celebrity pseudoscience? Retrieved November 17, 2015, from http://www.cbsnews.com/news/why-do-we-believecelebrity-pseudoscience/

7.

Kunzig, R. (2014, November). Carnivore’s Dilemma. Retrieved November 21, 2015, from http://www.nationalgeographic.com/foodfeatures/meat/

8.

Achenbach, J. (2015, March). Why Do Many Reasonable People Doubt Science? National Geographic. Retrieved from http://ngm.nationalgeographic. com/2015/03/science-doubters/achenbach-text

9.

Funk, C., & Rainie, L. (2015, January 29). Public and Scientists’ Views on Science and Society. Retrieved from http://www.pewinternet.org/2015/01/29/public-andscientists-views-on-science-and-society/

10. CBC News. (2015, August 10). Coca-Cola’s research funding criticized by obesity expert. Retrieved November 21, 2015, from http://www.cbc.ca/news/health/cocacola-s-research-funding-criticized-by-obesity-expert-1.3186279 11. Regalado, A. (2015, April 20). A Potato Made With Gene Editing. Retrieved November 12, 2015, from http://www.technologyreview.com/news/536756/apotato-made-with-gene-editing/ 12. Mohammadi, D. (2014, January 25). How online gamers are solving science’s biggest problems. The Guardian. Retrieved from http://www.theguardian.com/ technology/2014/jan/25/online-gamers-solving-sciences-biggest-problems

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VALUES

BODIES AS A RESOURCE When we die our bodies become the fertilizer that fuels future growth.

Innovations in the death industry aims to raise awareness and provide solutions to facilitate a more sustainable return to the earth.

INDIVIDUAL CHANGE BOTH INDIVIDUAL + (SMALL SCALE) INSTITUTIONAL CHANGE

INSTITUTIONAL CHANGE (LARGE SCALE)

DESCRIPTION Innovators in the death industry are suggesting that in order to plan your ultimate, most sustainable contribution to the earth, one needs to consider death during life. The resources wasted in coffin building and the toxins released in human cremation (5,000 pounds of Mercury, from dental fillings alone) are being replaced with new designs and cultural practices, allowing people to choose a more sustainable contribution to the earth after death.

MATURITY Emerging

SIGNALS •

•

•

Bios Urn, provides ‘life after life’ with a biodegradable urn and tree seed of your choice to be planted by loved ones after death (Bio, 2016) Capsual Mundi is a biodegradable pod coffin which places the body in a fetal position and into the earth with a tree seed of your choice. They envision forests instead of cemeteries to honor the dead.

Natural Death Society is a website which provides information and knowledge of natural death sites where biodegradable coffins and non-embalming practices are requirements. These natural sites are minimally maintained, instead allowing nature to takes course (Natural, 2015).

•

Green Burial Council is a certification organization that aims to set the green standard for the deathcare industry. They focus on educating citizens and industry professionals on green practices which consider worker health, carbon reduction initiatives and preserving and conserving natural habitat (Green, 2016).

•

The Urban Death Project, has proposed a tower where corpses

56

Image above: Jae Rhim Lee wearing and explaining her mushroom death suit on stage of TEDGlobal (Rhim, 2011).

are left to gently and naturally decompose with the aid of naturally occurring high-carbon decomposing materials. The soil that will eventually overturn, will be carefully monitored for toxins and if safe, will be put back into the soil as a resource for growth (Urban, 2015).

•

Jae Rhim Lee and a team of researchers have created the Infinity Burial Suit (formally, Mushroom Burial Suit) which aims to cleanse the dead body of harmful chemical using toxin consuming mushrooms. Mushroom spores are woven into the suit which is worn in death ensuring nontoxic decomposition (Mushroom, 2015).

SCANNING •

Also part of Rhim Lee’s research, the Decompiculture Kit. This kit contains pills which can be integrated at burial sites or become part of non-toxic embalming fluids, releasing toxin eating mushroom spores, to aid in safe decomposition (Decompiculture, 2015).

IMPLICATIONS A potential cultural shift from death denial and body preservation to a deeper awareness and understanding of the natural cycle of life and our deep connection to the environment. In preparing for death in life, we would ensure that our bodies are being used as a resource which can aid the planet, with true and complete environmental responsibility.

6.

Natural Burial Grounds. (2015). Retrieved February 13, 2016, from http://www. naturaldeath.org.uk/index.php?page=natural-burial-grounds

7.

PANEL TALK: Set for Canada waste chat in Montreal. (2015, October 1). Solid Waste and Recycling.

8.

Rhim Lee, J. (2011, January 1). My mushroom burial suit. Lecture presented at TED GLOBAL.

9.

Urban Death Project Annual Report. (2015). Retrieved November 23, 2015, from http://urbandeathproject.org/assets/annual-repor t-2015.pdf

RELATED TRENDS Waste to resource innovations are happening around the world that are taking previously unused products and turning them into energy for sustainable resources (Panel, 2015).

REFERENCES 1.

Bios Urn - Biodegradable Urn with seed. (2016). Retrieved February 13, 2016, from https://urnabios.com/

2.

Capsula Mundi. (2016). Retrieved February 13, 2016, from http://www. capsulamundi.it/en/

3.

Decompiculture Kit » Coeio. (2015). Retrieved November 24, 2015, from http:// www.coeio.com/decompiculture-kit/

4.

Green Burial Council. (2016). Retrieved February 13, 2016, from http:// greenburialcouncil.org/find-a-provider/

5.

Mushroom Death Suit » Now the Infinity Burial Suit » Coeio. (2015). Retrieved November 23, 2015, from http://www.coeio.com/mushroom-death-suit

Image above: Capsula Mundi envisions a different approach to death, with their biodegradable death to life pods (Capsula, 2016).

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58

SCENARIOS In the previous section, we uncovered trends that will affect what’s on the table in the future. Learning from these trends, the scenarios included in this section are constructed to evoke conceptual, hypothetical futures or plausible projections of the unknown (please see Appendix A for a full listing of trends and their relation to the scenarios).

“Scenarios are narratives of alternative environments in which today’s decisions may be played out. They are not predictions.

Nor are they strategies. Instead they are more like hypotheses of different futures specifically designed to highlight the risks and opportunities involved in specific strategic issues” (Ogilvy & Schwartz, 1998).

CRITICAL UNCERTAINTIES In order to ensure the scenarios are qualitatively different, yet deductive and within a logical framework, we choose to use a 2x2 martix (Ogilvy & Schwartz, 1998). From our scanning we discovered a shared dependence on Use of Technology and Food Supply, leading us to the critical uncertainties: High vs. Low Technology Use and Abundance vs. Shortage of Food Supply.

Will our food supply continue to provide or will the strain we have placed on our environment drive us into food scarcity?

How will the role of technology manifest itself in our future? Will technology continue to aid us and our food production, or will technology be limited in terms of development and adoption?

Looking at the 2x2 matrix, the availability of food supply (abundance or shortage) fall along the x-axis, and the use of technology (high or low) fall along the y-axis. It should be noted that in terms of technology, low technology use does not imply a regression in technology. Rather, in these worlds, current technology developments may not be as promising as originally planned, and consumers are cautious of new developments. On the converse, in the worlds of high technology use, consumer mindset is positive in terms of technology, and developments in technology are robust.

TIME FRAME AND GEOGRAPHICAL SCOPE These scenarios play out in Canada in the year 2030. Planning and enacting change for a company of this calibre takes time, 59

HIGH TECH ADOPTION

SCENARIOS

TECHNICALLY STARVING

GMO 2.O

FOOD SHORTAGE

FOOD ABUNDANCE

A TALE OF TWO WORLDS

PLENTY FOR THE COMMONS

LOW TECH ADOPTION

60

and a series of distinct rollout phases. Organizing and investing in products and services development, adopting new supply chain links and adapting current consumer habits requires time to unfold. Moreover, many of the technologies highlighted in the scanning phase are in their infancy, and will take time to establish themselves. Loblaws has the potential to continue to be an industry leader in the future of food. However, it requires a deep consideration as the many possible futures that might unfold.

PREDETERMINED FACTORS AND DRIVERS: In addition to the critical uncertainties outlined above, there are several predetermined factors which form the groundwork for each scenario. While these factors play a role in each scenario, our means of adapting to them may vary based on the scenario’s circumstances.

1. Climate Change An increase in fossil fuel production over the last 250 years has forced our planet into a state of precarious uncertainty.

Overall, global temperatures have increased 1.4 degrees Fahrenheit since 1880 and are predicted to continue rising, causing erratic and dangerous weather patterns. Millions of people across the globe are facing increasingly difficult circumstances due to drought and flooding. Global targets for slowing the effects of climate change were set in Paris in 2016 and the condition of our future world, depends on the achievement of these targets.

2. Baby Boomer Generation The baby boomer generation, 1945-1965, is projected to have a longer life expectancy than any generation to have come before it. By 2030, the youngest baby boomer reaches age 65 (Statistics Canada, 2014). Close to one in four persons in Canada will be aged 65 years, compared with 15.3% in 2013. Baby boomers will exert considerable purchasing power.

3. Generation Z Grows Up In 2011 Generation Z, the generation marked by those born from 1993 to 2011, is estimated to be 7.3 million people, or 22% of Canada’s population (Statistics Canada, 2015). In the year 2030, the early members of this generation will be in their thirties and will be making choices about what is on the table in Canadian family homes. This generation is marked by hyper connectivity, a shift in priorities from affluence to influence, and a focus on open innovation (Koulopoulos, 2014) This is a target market that Loblaws should keep in its crosshairs.

In addition to these predetermined factors, there are other drivers that affected the development of the scenarios. For example, pesticide and GMO usage, obesity, energy costs, water shortage, labour costs, the local food movement, and so forth. These drivers were also considered through the scenarios where they were most applicable.

The following pages explore the four unique scenarios that illustrate the potential food landscape in 2030.

61

SCENARIO 1: GMO 2.0 HIGH TECH ADOPTION

FOOD ABUNDANCE 62

CONTEXT In 2030, revolutionary developments in science and technology play a dominant role in shaping the food we eat. In reaction to the massive public distrust in GMOs which was prevalent in the 2010s, the scientific community actively worked to bridge the gap between science and public opinion. Using open innovation and social media, the scientific community actively sought public input on food studies in co-creation and citizen science projects. This initiative was hugely successful, bringing breakthrough technologies like candy-flavoured vegetables to the market, and winning over the public to the promise of GMO technologies. As a result the pressure to ban GMOs was lifted, and newly engineered food flooded the market throughout the 2020s.

Moreover, aggressive urges for action against climate change from both the scientific communities and the public are beginning to take hold in 2030. In the late 2010s there was a strong push to implement government programs, such as strict cap-and-trade systems and alternative energy subsidies, and in 2030 these systems are more established worldwide. That being said, climate change has not slowed down. Natural disasters are still increasing, but the scientific community has become more adept at anticipating them and adapting our food system to be more resilient against these disasters.

WHAT WE EAT AND WHERE IT COMES FROM Industrialised food production has taken root in urban centres. Vertical farms, powered by developments in smart aeroponic systems, are providing a local and diverse food source with minimal resources (e.g. energy input, environmental footprint, water and space). Crops are pollinated with “super bees”, genetically modified bees which were developed in response to colony collapse of the early 2010s, creating a vibrant yet wholly man-made urban ecosystem.

While these farms are focused on growing bespoke food, traditional farming still exists, focusing instead on mass-market crops and dairy production.

Because custom GMO species can be swiftly developed, monoculture is a thing of the past and crop diversity has returned to agriculture. Custom, bespoke vegetables are grown on request in vertical farms, and each family has a “signature” plant that they show off with pride. Forgotten plants from ancient history are recreated with GMO technology, bringing a combination of high-tech crops and rich historic foods.

Opposite images, clockwise from top left: MIT Media Lab. (2015), Shoe Heel Factory (2015), IKEA et al. (2015), An (2015)

63

SCENARIOS

VIGNETTE...OLIVIA Morning light streams through the bay window, Ivan sits happily playing with his figurines. “What would you like for dinner tonight, sweetheart?”. Unsurprised by his answer, Olivia hits the 3D printer to pizza cubes, adding the advieh, the Persian spice mix her husband likes to 5 of the 10 pieces.

Set to fresh, it will be ready at 5:30pm, her work day never failing to have her home on time.

On route to work, Olivia passes through alternating shadows of dark and light, the green building sides, towering high above her.

Smiling, she acknowledges the harvesters repelling from the towering roofs, busily pruning and tending the seeds she has created.

At her workplace, a series of new client profiles have been added to her computer.

A stream of G, A, T, and C flood the screen, as she optimizes the genetic profile of the tomato. Mumbling to herself, “Robinson, age 44, tomato optimized to increase serotonin, lycopene, B12.”

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GMO 2.0 CONTINUED Throughout the 2020s, diets were tailored based on an individual’s microbiome - the different bacteria strains dwelling inside us. This fascination with the dietary impact of micro-scale differences continues into 2030, where deep analysis of each person’s unique traits leads to personalised meal plans based on microbiome, genetic makeup, and even mood. These unique traits can be used to develop the bespoke crops grown in vertical farms.

Growth in personalised medicine and plant genomics allows doctors to request custom-grown medicinal crops for patients. This is incredibly useful for prolonging the health and wellness of baby boomers, who are well into their seventies and eighties at this time, and enables them to live independently for a longer period.

In this world of abundance, consumers question the need to kill animals as a source of food. Lab grown meat becomes a common, ethical, and far more affordable protein alternative. Everyday meats like beef and chicken are available in lab grown form, but less common meats such as sea turtle or ostrich are also available, introducing exotic or endangered animals to our palette. This isn’t without controversy, and there is a strong push in 2030 to ban lab-grown endangered animal meat, for fears that it encourages hunting of the real creatures.

In terms of flavours, Western Asian food – with their unique blend of spices, fruits and grains – are commonplace, as relations warm with Iran, and second generation immigrants from Afghanistan and Syria are established Canadian communities.

Echoing the ubiquity of Vietnamese food in Canada after wave of Vietnamese migration in the late 1970s and early 80s, these western Asian foods are part of the Canadian tapestry.

HOW WE EAT AT HOME Digital gastronomy tools become well-established in the home, with decreasing prices and faster technology making 3D printers as commonplace as the blender.

This technology brings new ingredients, forms and textures to our culinary lexicon, often made from food powders reconstituted into a printable medium. Individual ingredient cartridges are readily available in grocery stores, but for convenience sake, cartridge kits for whole meals are also available. Recipes are downloaded

IMPLICATIONS FOR LOBLAWS:

to the printer from open-sourced food printing sites, and are easily customised to the personalised diets created for each individual. While these printers can be used to create novel, imaginative dishes for special occasions, their ability to make convenience food sparked their popularity. For time-crunched days, full meals are printed automatically and ready on the table just as the family is getting home from their day. In essence, 3D printers usher in a new era of convenience food, one that is tailored to individual needs and wants, is less unhealthy and just as fast as the readymade meals of the 20th Century.

However, food isn’t only machine-made in 2030. People still enjoy the process of making food by hand, but home chefs are now guided with digital assistants.

Immersive kitchen tools use projection mapping and gesture controls to turn kitchens into an intelligent environment, guiding home chefs through recipes and techniques, and suggesting new ingredient combinations. Recipes are chosen based on which ingredients are in the home, the mood of the family, and specific dietary needs. This personalised information also helps chef develop customised vegetables to be grown at the local vertical farm. These intelligent tools can also facilitate grocery store shopping, allowing people to view what’s available at the local shops, place orders, and check the status of their personalised vegetable crop.

Virtual dining experiences also prove beneficial for reuniting people who live in far-flung places. People living alone are able to share a meal with loved ones without leaving their home. For those seeking new connections, serendipitous dining tools match people with strangers based on their personalities and food preferences, acting as a new way of social networking through virtual dining.

DOWNSIDES There are downsides to this food abundance. A never ending array of synthetic food – engineered for addictive flavour– results in a continuing issue with obesity.

Technological developments attempt to mitigate some of these issues. For example, ingestible nanotechnology pills absorb excess carbohydrates and fats from overindulgences. In addition, the widespread use of virtual reality has garnered in the era of “guilt-free dining”, where immersive virtual reality experiences mimic the pleasure of eating unhealthy food without the negative side effects.

• Explore the role Loblaws could play in a world where vertical farming is prevalent, such as by sourcing new suppliers or developing their own farms • Collaborate with kitchen design companies to develop intelligent kitchen environments, including 3D printers and immersive experiences • Investigate the potential in 3D printed food, and what new products Loblaws would need to develop • Develop tools for digital gastronomy, such as digital cooking assistants; personalised nutritional profiles based on genetics, mood and microbiomes; tools for developing custom genetically modified food; and virtual reality dining • Become an industry leader in commercializing lab grown meat • Explore Western Asian food, discovering new ingredients and recipes and developing products to match 65

SCENARIO 2: PLENTY FOR THE COMMONS FOOD ABUNDANCE

LOW TECH ADOPTION 66

CONTEXT An antibiotic resistant gene, traced to genetically modified corn, was responsible for the death of 33,045 people in 2020. The epidemic outbreak ripped through North America and created widespread GMO distrust. Global targets to curb climate change were not achieved in time. By 2023 droughts, fire and rising sea level, undeniably linked to Climate Change, have altered the landscape of the world. Millions of people have been displaced and continue to migrate to ‘more stable’ regions.

Beginning in 2022 Canada shut down the tar sands industry with the support of the United Nations Environmental Council. The Council for Canadian Energy formed in 2021 to develop sustainable energy infrastructure projects. Most international trade has stalled and Canada reframed national policy to protect the Canadian commons.

WHAT WE EAT AND WHERE IT COMES FROM Food is fresh and local.

The Southern Ontario growing season has been extended from April to November, due to shifts in Global Climate weather patterns. The people’s trust and reliance on the government and the global food market was fundamentally altered by 2020. Citizens groups band together to take care of our one fundamental need: the production of food.

A shift to localized food production began in 2017 and again gathered momentum in 2020.

Early climate change activists and anti GMO supporters, lead the movement for a local and natural food economy. Elderly people living longer and with greater vitality into their older lives, have become driving forces in community food production. Beginning in 2021, governments consulted the knowledge of native elders and rural farming communities to gather wisdom and knowledge to produce growing information for the masses. Food technology innovators and systems thinkers were called upon to create new local food production systems.

Lawns around the country were converted to crops. Urban roofs plot set up with aquaponics systems, marketed and installed by existing major retailers for fresh fish and vegetable growing.

Bee populations thrive over time, with new innovations in beekeeping practices.

Opposite images, clockwise from top left: Sabino (2015), The Huffington Post (2013), Mucci (2015), Madamba (n.d.)

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PLENTY FOR THE COMMONS SCENARIOS

CONTINUED

VIGNETTE...GREG Grey heads bob between rows of towering green stocks.

As Greg slowly saunters towards the once barren parking lot, he recalls a moment in time in his 20s meeting travelling with a crew of hippies to a commune farm on the edge of Lake Superior. Something about green rows triggers a reflective smile.

The garden keeper of the active living center greets him with a smile and cool glass of water. “Glad, you’re here today, it’s harvest day for the green beans.”

After spending the majority of the afternoon in the garden, Greg and the rest of the seniors gather in the dining hall for salad, green beans and a micro portion of free range chicken from two plots down. Everything had is shared.

Greg looks around smiling at his fellow senior citizens. Together they sway to the folk music playing live from the corner of the room. He concludes again, almost as though he forgot: happiness is but a state of mind.

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Community gardens and community kitchens have been integrated into our educational institutions, correctional facilities and active living centers, teaching citizens how to grow and cook nutritious food. Former white and blue collar workers have become ‘ambassadors of green’ for communities around Canada.

Seed share banks have been set up in every community. Markets, town halls and libraries provide organic seeds for growing, free of charge. Seed sharing schemes continue to roll out, each growing season. Citizens are educated on how to recoup seeds for next year’s growing. Some citizens have also engaged in global seed trading bartering systems.

Store sell hard to produce products, things such as butter, bread, dairy, baked goods, treats, grains, pasta alternative soy and wheat proteins and limited meat. A new wave of food entrepreneurs pops up in the form of informal market spaces.

With the known impact industrialized farming has on climate change, a shift has occurred in people’s expectation of meat in their daily diet. Untraditional forms of protein taken up by new local entrepreneurs who grow crickets and mealworm for sale or trade.

A nationwide food redistribution network has been set in place to mitigate food waste and provide abundance for all members of society. These networks spread across the cities. Funding for these projects was provided by companies with a surplus of money looking to contribute to Canada in a positive way. Food manufacturing happens on a localized scale powered through renewable initiatives.

IMPLICATIONS FOR LOBLAWS:

HOW WE EAT AT HOME Citizens are no longer interested in food products full of chemicals and preservatives. Personally growing and preserving one’s own foods becomes part of the household structure. Making food from scratch occurs frequently in the home as most citizens taught how to cook.

Communities of people regularly come together to share cooking and conversation at community meals. A cultural shift in values, helps people to appreciate the simple things in life.

The newly settled communities of displaced people affected by global climate change have begun to fully integrate into Canada, contributing greatly to the food economy.

Grateful and humble for land and seed they have made efforts to involve own cultural practices of growing, preserving and cooking traditional food and sharing recipes with community.

DOWNSIDES

• Movement away from fossil fuelled production and distribution networks which contribute to climate change recommended (e.g. meat production, exotic fruits and foods from international markets) • Invest in producing low tech energy technology for households (biofuel, solar, wind) • Begin fostering a shift in personal subsistence development, selfproducing education and consultations for growing abundance.

• Develop seed banks in stores to promote democratized growth network

Many people have had to face bouts of unemployment and displacement due to the effects of climate change. A lot of struggle has occurred. New forms of structure in society are sought and explored, but have left people resistant to change and uncomfortable. Mental health issues are on the rise due to heavy bouts of uncertainty and change, but communities band together, taking care of each other. Together, citizens focus on the tangible rewards of success through fulfilling food production.

69

SCENARIO 3: A TALE OF TWO WORLDS FOOD SHORTAGE

LOW TECH ADOPTION 70

CONTEXT In 2030, the world is reaping the seeds of what it has put the planet through. Climate change is now a reality and there is no end in sight. Certain plants are extinct due to severe water shortages.

The seas have been polluted and overfished, so that, only limited parts of the world can now be fished. Those areas are closely guarded. Only those with access to money and power can find and purchase fresh fish, which is sold in very small quantities, similar in many ways to how caviar is currently sold on the world market.

The aggressive lobbying against GMOs has led to worldwide government mandated bans on GMOs. As result, only heritage seeds can be grown and those are controlled by large corporations. Since these seeds are not resistant to insects, the yield is very low. As a result, there are global food shortages. The continued increase in population has only contributed to the crisis of food shortage. Unpredictable weather patterns related to global warming, have led to droughts and floods. Crops have been severely impacted by these weather patterns. As a result, fresh food is being sold at premium prices to those who can afford it. This has led to many people growing food at home and looking to the black market for GMO seeds. To improve food access and security people have resorted to growing food in their basements and raising chicken in their backyards. There are hundreds of online and offline groups that offer tips and a community where first time growers can access information.

With the shortage in food supplies, there is greater emphasis on the social aspects of food consumption. There is an increase in the rituals surrounding the preparation and consumption of certain types of food, special tools and utensils are used to aid in the promotion of these rituals. In addition, food items that were once in abundance are now considered special treats and sold at premium items (indulgence items).

There is a highly differentiated two tier system that separates those with and without resources (socioeconomic and education based). This lack of access to nutritious food options has led to a rise in obesity and diabetes and the government stepping in to support food banks and provide subsidies.

Opposite images, clockwise from top left: March Against Monsanto (n.d.), Tales of Gardening Greatness. (n.d.), Christine, A. (n.d.), Teasley, E. (2013).

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SCENARIOS

A TALE OF TWO WORLDS CONTINUED

VIGNETTE...KYLE Noiselessly, Kyle pulls the floorboard up just enough for the day light to filter into the dark space. Here he finds, one shrivelling potato, one can of salmon (expiry 2027), one small bag of dry pasta and what he’s looking for, an air sealed Kit Kat dated 2021.

KNOCK, KNOCK --- Kyle, nearly jumping out of his skin, drops the floor board with a bang and freezes to listen carefully, for his snorts of his piggish landlady, who always seems to know when there is food out.

“Kyle, it’s Jane, wake up, it’s your Birthday!”

A sigh of relief washes over him. Jane is his best friend in the communal unit and who he will be sharing his birthday KitKat with.

They run and climb to the most deserted area they can think of – uptown, along a stream coming from the north. Once out of breath and seemingly safe, Jane opens her pack to present a fresh loaf of bread and cream cheese. She won’t tell Kyle where she got it from, indicating to him that she stole it, a plight not uncommon for her, yet particularly endearing on this special day of his 12 year of life. Together they feast, unworried about tomorrow.

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There is a greater awareness around the power of collectives to come together to attempt to fill the gap. Certain foods are now sold at auction as they no longer exist and are accessible to the very affluent and sold behind walls of secrecy. This world of scarcity is dominated by a sense of competition over resources from water to energy and food. Certain types of food, which were abundant, such as honey, are now kept locked and only used for medicinal purposes. Naturopaths and natural healers with their reliance on herbs and fresh sources of food have gained popularity and now are the go to people for healing and nutritional counselling. It is in essence a return to nature with its bounty and a move away from the processed and artificial.

WHAT WE EAT AND WHERE IT COMES FROM The reliance on non-GMO seeds has led to a food shortage that has encouraged the rise of farming cooperatives in the middle of urban centers. Neighbours are coming together to pool resources, share tips and grow food collectively. This has led to the rise of the ‘potluck’ as a way to share food. Food scarcity has meant that new dishes now include all parts of the plant or animal, nothing is thrown away. The unpredictability in weather patterns has also meant that those crops that are grown have become a valuable resource to be guarded and protected. Underground groups have sprouted where farming knowledge is exchanged in informal circles.

IMPLICATIONS FOR LOBLAWS: • Potential to appeal to the high end of the market by providing an undisrupted supply of healthy and fresh foodoptions.

• Development of value products that use exotic ingredients such as cricket powder HOW WE EAT AT HOME With the high cost of food there is a move to make things at home from scratch.

At-home urban gardens are now all the rage and communal food sharing is an “in thing”. Food that is recycled is repackaged and sold again. Fresh food when it is found is portioned into smaller quantities and served with healthy staples and fillers.

The high end of the market is focused on accessing the best and freshest products, such consumers are willing to pay top dollar for premium products. A decrease in portion size is a way of life for many and a food barter system is now in full bloom.

DOWNSIDES Although the return to basics and non GMO seeds has been good on the one hand in terms of going back to nature, but it has also meant a shortage of fresh food. Lack of access to fresh food is having major health implications from lack of fertility to the rise in mental health issues. The restriction of fishing to certain areas in the world has deprived many of a way of life and access to traditional seafood dishes that are part of their heritage. For those without many resources, this has meant going without food and relying on leftovers that lack proper nutrition. The high cost of food has meant that higher percentages of disposable income now go to support food basics. The impact is felt far beyond the dinner table.

• Selling at home starter kits for home grown worm kits to access alternative sources of protein.

• Market for lower priced items that focus on the trash to table food. ie. bruised and slightly damaged. May be developed into its own line of products • Offering of venues and places to connect for communal dining and sharing of food, Loblaws to act as a connecting hub, provide a local app.

• Host monthly community dinners/ breakfasts.

• Help support urban gardens through the offering of seeds and expertise.

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SCENARIO 4: TECHNICALLY STARVING HIGH TECH ADOPTION

FOOD SHORTAGE 74

CONTEXT In the world of 2030, Prime Minister Stephen Harper and the Conservative Party have been re-elected for a second term to govern Canada. The climate change initiatives of former Prime Minister Justin Trudeau (2015-2025) and the COP21UN partners have completely lost traction.

The high costs of energy, consumer goods, and food shortages have created global and domestic economic instability. Massive drought conditions have created food shortages. Public support for climate change initiatives in Canada is at its lowest ebb, as the benefits will still take years to take hold. Canadians have given Harper a new mandate for a renewed food and energy policy, Harper’s first policy is to repeal all climate change initiatives, even though Canada is plagued with drought conditions and very limited drinking water. Nuclear energy plants are scaled up to meet electricity requirements for the growing electric car market and technology-mediated foods. Investments in wind and solar energy have proven sustainable only on a small scale. Fossil fuels are once more made available in response to public opinion and multinational energy conglomerates seeking to restore their market positions.

Harper’s Conservative economic platform favours a free market economy by removing all subsidies to egg, dairy, and wheat producers. Barriers to global trade are lifted allowing many unregulated food products into the country posing safety risks to human consumption.

Governments are partnering with the private sector to develop innovative food technologies that can scale up quickly.

In the early 2000’s farming was driven by high production monoculture farming methods using GM seeds to deal with the unpredictable yearly consequences of climate change. Newly developed GM crop varieties are no longer resistant to pests and disease while drought conditions have left soil depleted of nutrients for future food production resulting in “dust bowl” disasters. Incentives are offered to large food producers using massive greenhouse operations to scale up production in response to the shortage.

The government with the support of the public, has lifted bans on GM meat, poultry and fish, with tax incentives to GM and other food technology companies to relocate to Canada to scale up engineered food production for rapid commercialization. Lenient regulations for GM products permit rapid market penetration.

Opposite images, clockwise from top left: Costeau, P. (2013) Acker, D. (2012), Bolan, K. (2011) LSN Global (2015)

75

SCENARIOS

TECHNICALLY STARVING CONTINUED

VIGNETTE...CONNOR “Dust Bowl now affecting 67% of the prairie provinces…Grain shortages have cause prices to sky rocket...Harper reiterates stance on oil fuelled industries...false hope...tainted food recall, due to inclusion of sawdust filler...”

Connor only half listening, swipes the webcast away, districted by his grumbling stomach. The blazing sun catches him off guard as he steps beyond his stoop, concluding it must be at least 3 degrees hotter than it was yesterday. He walks the route most shaded by the urban sprawl, passing a collection of dishevelled people waiting in line with their bowl for soup, spat out from a food repurposing nozzle at the corner of Queen and Broadview.

He enters the store greeted by a friendly robot who welcomes him to “Fresh Mart – where fresh is best!” Scanning the store, there is no fresh produce today, but for a shrivelling tomato and lettuce head held behind the glass case under lock and key.

He diverts to the canned good section, the robot following him in hopes to, “help you make something fresh today!” He scans a can of beans across the robots face. A voice pipes up, “Beans aux Provence – mix the beans with water, sprinkle with Provence herb substitute. Voila!”

Connors sighs, dreaming of his mother baked beans and ham at summer BBQs. 76

Canada’s urban population increases with immigrants coming from conflict-ridden countries in the Middle East, Western Asia, and the Horn of Africa.

IS terrorists, the new energy imperialists, are now controlling much of the world’s oil stocks. Canada is responding to this threat by giving exploration and drilling rights to multinational oil conglomerates, creating further environmental deterioration.

The aging baby boomers, the wealthiest demographic in Canada, continue to be the largest consumers of health care. They dominate markets for specialized food and clothing, as well as customized housing and furnishings.

WHAT WE EAT AND WHERE IT COMES FROM In a world of food scarcity and high technology, all science and technology resources are mobilized to solve the food crisis. Fresh produce is in short supply. Artificial ecosystems created in smart greenhouses in rural areas cannot meet the demand.

Developments in GMO seeds have not adapted to drought conditions. GMO livestock continue to rely on high agricultural yield as the shortage of feed persists.

On-going attempts to create cultured-meat products have met with low consumer adoption. Food technology labs have slowed down production as taste, shape, and colour cannot be perfected without additional capital investment.

The relative high cost of smart 3D printers for digitized food preparation remains out of reach for the middle and lower income earners. There have been attempts to develop forever-fresh food technology that converts food waste into a high nutrient edible powder, yet this also requires more research and development Water shortages also prevent farming of GMO fish and seafood in greenhouse-like climate controlled structures. Investments in new water technologies have potential to increase fish production.

IMPLICATIONS FOR LOBLAWS:

Urban growing space is very limited due to overcrowding with the constant arrival of newcomers. Traditional playgrounds and grassy parks are transformed into communal gardens using new forms of fertilizer derived from human remains.

Crime has penetrated the food sector where both well established and start-up food producers are marketing synthetic food with counterfeit labeling. Unregulated food products, coming into the country may contain bacteria that can cause spoilage or foodborne disease. All these foods pose health and safety public health risk to Canadians.

SOCIAL IMPACT OF FOOD SHORTAGES In a world of food scarcity and high technology usage, there is a major shift in values that favour community building. Alternative economies are emerging and have the effect of leveling all socio-economic differences featuring non-competitive bartering and ration sharing. Simultaneously the rise of communal dining where sharing food also bridges the gap between rich and poor. New dining rituals have emerged to recognize the new relationship of food with society. Solo diners are using technology to simulate the dining experience on-line as a coping strategy to deal with the misery of food scarcity.

In this world, deprivation of basic food and water has a direct relationship to public health. The effects of malnutrition, dehydration, and despair are seen in the rise of disease, disability, and mental health issues with fewer resources to cope with health needs.

THE SMART SUPERMARKET Time-strapped consumers are working long hours at numerous jobs to keep up with the high cost of living. They are seeking reasonably priced fast, fresh food, with high nutritional value that can be prepared with a minimum of effort and time.

• Establish alliances across the sectors of nutrition, health, agriculture, technology, and environment to promote innovations in food that are sustainable, low cost and highly nutritious • Partner with government and food producers to develop new sources of food proteins and highly nutritious food alternatives.

• Create partnerships with the local community to support social initiatives such as space for community meals, recipe testing and conduct public education on food safety.

• Introduce smart technology in supermarkets that facilitate the preparation of personalized take–out meals, provide recipes for food in your shopping basket, and recommend other items that result in a quick nutritious meal.

(CONTINUED ON NEXT PAGE) 77

SCENARIOS

IMPLICATIONS FOR LOBLAWS CONTINUED: • Scale up investments in alternative foods such as cultured food products as well as high nutrient forever fresh shopping basket, and recommend other items that result in a quick nutritious meal.

• Scale up investments in alternative foods such as cultured food products as well as high nutrient forever fresh technologies that can be customized to individual genetic and health profiles.

• Provide public education on gardening for drought conditions by introducing new seed varieties, fertilizers, and growing methods in the garden centres.

• Take a leading role in the public debate over genetic and health profile data protection.

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TECHNICALLY STARVING CONTINUED

Supermarkets are taking a leadership role by working with the public to address shortages through smart in home and online technology that generate customized menus based on customer’s genetic profile, health considerations, and food availability, shopping selections or the specials offered that day. Smart technology quickly identifies customer’s product requests by comparing ingredients, nutritional value, price, and location in the store. In addition, robots have replaced cashiers reducing lines for time–strapped shoppers.

Supermarkets are offering spaces for community dining using recipes, ingredients, and alternative cooking methods developed for shortage conditions. They are investing in new food technologies that have a high nutritional benefit for an undernourished society. Open-source digital applications provide users with resources and recipes to maximize their available food stock.

CONSIDERATIONS There are ethical and health considerations surrounding new food sources. There is concern that relaxed regulations of engineered food will result in improper testing for human consumption. Deregulation of trade tariffs allows food imports originating from unknown sources with dubious ingredients. In addition, privacy regulations around the use of genetic and health profile is a pressing issue that requires public debate. Overall, consumers are taking more responsibility for the safety of their food and the privacy of personal data.

FUTURE-PROOFING LOBLAWS Scenario mapping, relative to critical uncertainties “Use of Technology” and “Food Supply”, can inform decisions for Loblaws in order to keep them as leaders throughout upcoming changes in the Canadian dining experience. Given the diverse range of scenarios explored in this paper, and their specific implications, the following directions point Loblaws to methods of future proofing themselves against an CONTEXT uncertain future: Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit. Ut tincidunt felis magna, ac ullamcorper • quis. a movement away from fossil fuelled Nulla production and distribution, establishing alliances across ipsum consectetur Sed vehicula sodales odio ac gravida. euismod id erat nec dapibus.

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Vestibulum auctor ac felis ut efficitur. scenario(s) develop by 2030, Loblaws has the opportunity to greatly impact both what’s on the table

andbibendum dining in quam Canada.

Sed bibendum a elementum. Nullam quis ipsum tortor. Pellentesque maximus dui libero, ac viverra libero finibus vitae. Proin eget pulvinar arcu, non vehicula lectus.

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REFERENCES Acker, D. (2012, July 06). Dry Field in Indiana [Photograph]. Agriculture. Drought.

An, J. (2015). Project Nourished: A Gastronomical Virtual Reality Experience. Retrieved November 21, 2015, from http://www.projectnourished.com/ Bolan, K. (2011, May 11). Suspected Money Laundering in B.C.’s Northeast, Kootenay. [Photograph] Retrieved from http://blogs.vancouversun.com/2011/05/11/suspected-money-laundering-in-b-c-s-northeast-kootenay/ Christine, A. (n.d.). Modern and Eco-Friendly Indoor Gardens |. Retrieved December 9, 2015, from http:// atelierchristine.com/archives/967/green-living/modern-and-eco-friendly-indoor-gardens Company Overview. (2011). Retrieved December 17, 2015, from http://www.loblaw.ca/english/about-us/ companyoverview/default.aspx Costeau, P. (2013, March 26). Marine LIfe Under Threat [Photograph]. CNN.com, Haiti.

IKEA, IDEO, TU Eindhoven, & Lund University. (2015). Concept Kitchen 2025. Retrieved November 12, 2015, from http://www.conceptkitchen2025.com/ Long-range Plan. (2011). Retrieved December 16, 2015, from http://www.loblaw.ca/English/responsibility/ long-range-plan/default.aspx Madamba, E. (n.d.). Photo by Elvin Anthony Madamba. Retrieved December 17, 2015, from http://s1233. photobucket.com/user/Elbeen24/media/Good%20Shepherd%20part%203/IMG_7979_1068x712.jpg. html?src=pb March Against Monsanto. (n.d.). Retrieved December 9, 2015, from https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/March_ Against_Monsanto MIT Media Lab. (2015). About Open Agriculture. Retrieved December 6, 2015 from http://openag.media.mit. edu/about/ Mucci, A. (2015, May 28). The Supermarket of the Future Knows Exactly What You’re Eating. Retrieved December 17, 2015, from https://munchies.vice.com/articles/the-supermarket-of-the-future-knows-exactlywhat-youre-eating Ogilvy, J., & Schwartz, P. (1998). Plotting Your Scenarios. Global Business Network, 1-18.

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SCENARIOS Respect the Environment. (2011). Retrieved December 16, 2015, from http://www.loblaw.ca/English/ responsibility/ourprinciples/ respect-the-environment/default.aspx Statistics Canada. ( 2014 ). Population projections: Canada, the provinces and territories, 2013 to 2063 http:// www.statcan.gc.ca/daily-quotidien/140917/dq140917a-eng.htm Statistics Canada. (2015). Generations In Canada. Retrieved from https://www12.statcan.gc.ca/censusrecensement/2011/ as-sa/98-311-x/98-311-x2011003_2-eng.cfm Shaftel, H. (2015, December 14). Global Climate Change. Retrieved December 15, 2015, from http://climate. nasa.gov Shoe Heel Factory. (2015, August 18). From article: A bushelful of information on heirloom tomatoes.

Retrieved December 6, 2015, from http://www.jsonline.com/features/food/a-bushelful-of-information-onheirloom-tomatoesb99552779z1-322169451.html Sabino, J. (2015, August 15). Climate Change: Food Shortage To Triple By 2040 Due To Extreme Weather.

Retrieved December 17, 2015, from http://www.hngn.com/articles/119845/20150815/climate-change-foodshortage-triple-2040-due-extreme-weather.htm Tales of Gardening Greatness. (n.d.). Retrieved December 9, 2015, from http://www.nycgovparks.org/about/ history/community-gardens/greatness Teasley, E. (2013, April 4). Laying fallow. Retrieved December 9, 2015, from http://eugenieteasley.com/layingfallow/ The Huffington Post. (2013, August 5). Why This Major City Has To Fight For Food. Retrieved December 17, 2015, from http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2013/08/05/north-tulsa-food-scarcity_n_3709117.html The Paris Agreement. (2015, December 12). Retrieved December 15, 2015, from http://www.c2es.org/ international/paris-agreement Thomas Koulopoulos. (2014). The Gen Z Effect: Living in a Post-generational World. Retrieved from https:// www.youtube.com/watch?v=bzDwX-9jKOU Trash to table [Photograph]. (2015, April 06). LSNglobal.com.

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Image source: Hala Beisha

STRATEGIES

“All the notions we thought solid, all the values of civilized life, all that made for stability for international locations, all that made for regularity in the economy...in a world that, all that tended to happily limit the uncertainty of the morrow, all that gave nations and individuals some confidence in the morrow… all this seems badly compromised. I have consulted all the augurs I could find, of every species, and I have heard only vague word, contradictory prophecies, curiously feeble assurances. Never has humanity combined so much power with so much disorder, so much anxiety with so many playthings, so much knowledge with so such uncertainty” Paul Valery, 1932.

Understanding the unpredictability of the world, Peter Valery in his 1932 essay was an early proponent of the practice of strategic foresight as an imperative in strategic business development. Scenarios are an essential tool to ensure that business strategy proposals are relevant both the company and the future.

WIND TUNNELLING AND STRATEGY GENERATION In this strategy section, Loblaws is presented with a number of strategic opportunities to consider in order to remain successful in 2030. A wind tunneling exercise was conducted, by taking multiple strategies ‘for a walk’ through each scenario, to understand what strategic options would thrive or die across the distinct future scenarios. Scenario fit was qualified with low, medium and high ratings to gauge and facilitate choosing the strategy proposals to put forward (see Appendix B). Wind Tunneling was also used to think more deeply about strategies and their implications (Van der Heijden, n.d.). Thereafter, the short list of strategies were chosen based on their potential robustness or risk, and which aligned best with the culture and capabilities of Loblaws.

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CULTURE OF LOBLAWS’ CORPORATE DNA AND FIT WITH STRATEGIC OPTIONS There are key elements of an organization’s DNA that make certain strategic options more or less attractive to them. In the case of Loblaws, the features listed below will allow for ease of implementation and adoption of the suggested strategies. These features of Loblaws are as follows: •

Loblaws was originally founded by two partners, who offered the market a new way of grocery shopping. They were told it would never work but the chain took off. The company has proven over the years that it has an entrepreneurial spirit.

•

Loblaws introduced new service and product innovations to pounce on changing consumer trends and to leverage demographic shifts. (Green Products, Black Label)

•

Loblaws is willing to make heavy financial investments for long term impact and financial sustainability and relevance. Case in point is Loblaws’ huge investment and buy out of Shoppers Drug Mart to focus on wellness and urban populations.

•

Loblaws is willing to make investments in systems, people and infrastructure to position itself for sustained future success. (introduction of PC products, Joe Fresh, PC Financial and supplier code of conduct)

•

Loblaws understands the slim margins and increased competition from others in the grocery business. The pattern of its strategic decision is proactive versus reactive. (Guiding Star program)

•

Loblaws appreciates and understands its role as a main player and contributor to the health and well being of Canadian society.

With all these factors in mind, the strategic designers believe Loblaws is well positioned to embrace the changes the food industry will face in 2030. Considering Loblaws history of developing innovative and diverse offerings, it is purposed that Loblaws become a leader in food sustainability management and high tech health and wellness solutions.

1. Always Local: shifting food production to urban and near-urban space.

2. Beyond Meat: becoming a market leader in providing protein alternative.

3. Bespoke Wellness: technological facilitated customized food.

4. Accessible Wellness: providing a full suite of wellness solution to Boomers’ homes.

5. Second Life: finding new potential in near expired food.

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STRATEGY 1: ALWAYS LOCAL MILD GAMBLE STRATEGY

Implementation of this strategy will be necessary if current conditions of global climate change, currency depreciation and the high cost food and transportation persist.

By encouraging food production close to the urban environment, Loblaws has the opportunity to alter the current food acquisition and distribution supply chain to be more affordable, diverse, less resource intensive and higher quality produce.

By partnering with high volume greenhouse growers and with investments in vertical growing technologies; new contracts with local commercial growers have the opportunity to become the main producer of fresh produce for store distribution. By sourcing produce from local, protected growing environments, Loblaws can the trusted source of safe, reliable products.

This is a mild gamble because its success will be greater in a world of high technology adoption. In addition, this is a higher cost strategy for new growers, but through Loblaws’ investment in growing technology, they can facilitate the development of this new approach.

Risks, Contingencies, Caveats: The following must be considered when implementing this strategy: local partnership development with farmers, viability of technology, urban zoning laws, and potential impact on global trade partners (including government pressure to support trade deals). Cost of land in near-rural areas is expensive and limited, although farming can be done on non-agricultural land.

Measures of Success: Adequate supply of food; quality, flavour, longevity and yields surpass current imports; price is competitive Influence: While Loblaws’ cannot directly affect the viability of the technologies, they can influence its development through investment, policy and partnerships. Moreover, while Loblaws will not be farming the food themselves, by sourcing growers fitting these criteria, they will have an influence on the nature of farming near cities.

Image: Aeroponic gardens.

Source: http://www.advancednutrients.com/articles/aeroponics-beyond-hydroponics-in-high-tech-gardening/ 85

STRATEGIES

STRATEGY 1: ALWAYS LOCAL CONTINUED ACTIONS AND SIGNPOSTS CORPORATE OPERATIONS

PRODUCTS

SERVICES + EDUCATION

Source food from vertical farms, greenhouse farms or indoor growers using emerging aqua and aeroponic systems for high yields of fresh produce, fresh or saltwater fish

Feature local and competitively priced fresh produce and fish sourced from greenhouses, vertical gardens, aqua and aeroponic gardens.

Develop an accreditation standard to certify the quality of urban grown produce, to support growers and for consumer protection.

Use educational promotion to develop an awareness around the benefits of locally grown food.

Encourage high yield through investment in robotic growing technology that requires minimal human labor and relies on renewable energy sources.

STAKEHOLDERS + PARTNERSHIPS Create new partnerships with vertical garden and greenhouse growers and demand standards in production methods to ensure low environmental impact, high long term sustainability.

Invest in R&D for local tropical food production.

SIGNPOSTS:

SIGNPOSTS:

SIGNPOSTS:

SIGNPOSTS:

Rising cost of food imports

Lower costs and higher yields of aeroponic and aquaponic farming

Continued interest in local food movement

Growth in other alternative farming practices

National targets for low emissions 86

Patents for alternative farming

SCENARIO FIT:

HIGH TECH ADOPTION

STRATEGIES

TECHNICALLY STARVING

GMO 2.O

Strategy resonates here as technology and large scale commercialization are suited for this world.

Strategy resonates here as technology and large scale commercialization are suited for this world.

FOOD ABUNDANCE

FOOD SHORTAGE A TALE OF TWO WORLDS

PLENTY FOR THE COMMONS

Urban vertical farms are less likely here, as the technology will not be developed fully. In this scenario, focus on near-urban greenhouse technologies which are better established.

Urban vertical farms are less likely here, as the technology will not be developed fully. In this scenario, focus on near-urban greenhouse technologies which are better established.

LOW TECH ADOPTION

TIMELINE: 2016 Announce policy shift for locally grown food, to potential local growers within a 50 km radius of urban Loblaws. Invest R&D for local tropical food production.

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2030 Put out tenders to high volume growers within 50 km radius

Scale up local growing production. Implement local growing of yield high tropical produce.

Only purchase locally grown produce.

STRATEGY 2: BEYOND MEAT ROBUST STRATEGY

In this strategy there is an opportunity for Loblaws to become a leader in alternative protein sources. The production and distribution of farmed meats have known adverse effects on the environment. We can no longer depend on long distance sourcing of animal protein products due to increased environmental considerations. With research and development in non-animal protein sources Loblaws could create a shift in market consumption patterns to more local, cultured, non-animal protein sources.

This is a robust strategy because all scenarios require some form of alternative protein.

However, some scenarios will more likely to adopt cultured products, while others will resort to low tech solutions such as insects and algae.

Risks, Contingencies, Caveats: Because all emerging protein sources have a potential “ick” factor, market adoption will have to be closely monitored. Heavy market promotion will be required. Potential backlash from “traditional” protein producers.

Partnerships with new alternative protein manufacturing needs time to develop.

Measures of Success: Reduced sales of traditional protein and increased sales of alternative protein. Mass market awareness and preference of alternative proteins.

Viability of local alternative protein businesses. Increase in competition implies that this strategy is lucrative.

Influence: While Loblaws cannot directly affect the viability of the technologies, they can influence its development through investment, policy and partnerships. Moreover, while Loblaws will not be producing the products themselves, by sourcing producers fitting these criteria, they will have an influence on the nature of alternative proteins produced locally.

Image : Lab grown burger Source: http://www.nytimes.com/2013/08/06/science/a-labgrown-burger-gets-a-taste-test.html?_r=0 88

STRATEGIES CORPORATE OPERATIONS

PRODUCTS

SERVICES + EDUCATION

Acquire alternative protein sources from local manufacturing outlets.

Market alternative protein products, such as whole insects and algae under premium brand labeling (Black Label) to build trust and allure around products.

Encourage a change in consumer perception through a slow rollout of alternative proteins.

Introduce processed insect flours to develop consumer tastes and brand acceptance.

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Offer synthetic meat in processed meat products under ‘Green/Organic label’ to encourage conscious consumption.

Incorporate advertising campaigns which show the positive impact of alternative proteins on the economy and environment.

STAKEHOLDERS + PARTNERSHIPS Champion a return to Canadian manufacturing and production by encouraging alternative protein industries to develop in close proximity to stores (see Always Local).

Invest in research partnerships to develop affordable cultured proteins and introduce to market when the cost is competitive or lower than that of real meat.

Offer starter kits for growing insects at home.

SIGNPOSTS:

SIGNPOSTS:

SIGNPOSTS:

SIGNPOSTS:

Cost of lab grown meat production becomes lower than the cost of real meat/ poultry/fish

Increased sales of insect products

Rise in cooking classes and cookbooks featuring alternative proteins

Growth in other alternative farming practices

Rising meat prices Increased sales in indoor urban

gardening products

Provide free samples and recipes.

Implement community outreach programs in schools to develop taste and early adoption of alternative proteins.

Patents for alternative proteins

STRATEGY 2: BEYOND MEAT SCENARIO FIT:

CONTINUED

HIGH TECH ADOPTION TECHNICALLY STARVING All forms of protein alternatives - cultured protein, insects and algae - will be strong here due to food shortage and high technology adoption.

GMO 2.O Cultured protein will be strong here, although insects may be a harder sell because there’s less of an incentive to switch. Insects and algae will have to be sold as an exotic/novelty item.

FOOD ABUNDANCE

FOOD SHORTAGE A TALE OF TWO WORLDS

PLENTY FOR THE COMMONS

While insects and algae will do well in this scenario, lab grown meat will not be viable due to low technology adoption.

While insects and algae will do well in this scenario, lab grown meat will not be viable due to low technology adoption.

LOW TECH ADOPTION

TIMELINE: 2016 Introduce and promote insect flour into stores.

Invest in research and development for cultured protein food products.

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2030 Offer tender for insect manufacturing and production locally.

Introduce Black Label insect and algae products.

Launch starter kits for growing insects at home.

Introduce ‘Green Label’ for processed meat products which contain at least 10% cultured protein.

Present 100% cultured protein under ‘organic label’ in processed and frozen meat products.

STRATEGY 3: BESPOKE WELLNESS GAMBLE STRATEGY

In this strategy, Loblaws can introduce a profitable product line and service which delivers a highly customized approach to nutrition based on genetics and microbiomes.

In line with Loblaws’ move towards a focus on wellness, this strategy will empower consumers to optimise health and wellness through what they eat. Looking to new technology advancements, Loblaws can be an industry leader in highly customized nutritional products and advice.

This strategy is a gamble because in scenarios with low technology adoption, genetic and microbiome diet customization may not be feasible, and/or will not be readily accepted by the public.

Risks, Contingencies, Caveats: Preserving consumers’ bioprivacy will be of utmost concern liability waivers for services and products will have to be imposed, research may not be robust enough to provide accurate recommendations within this time frame.

Measures of Success: Consumer interest and adoption, minimal backlash, enactment of bio privacy and personal data laws to protect the consumer.

Influence: While Loblaws cannot directly affect the viability of the technologies, they can influence its development through investment, policy and partnerships.

Image: Your genetic information may soon influence your diet Source: http://www.precisionnutrition.com/allabout-genetic-testing 91

STRATEGIES

STRATEGY 3: BESPOKE WELLNESS CONTINUED ACTIONS AND SIGNPOSTS CORPORATE OPERATIONS

PRODUCTS

SERVICES + EDUCATION

Become a leader in micronutrition technology through collaboration and support of research at Canadian universities which engage in custom plant genomics and human genetic profile testing.

Leverage brand identity and consumer trust for the Shoppers Drug Mart Wellness Program and begin offering genetic and microbiome profile tests.

Consult consumers for desires and concerns surrounding genetic testing and hyper personalised diets.

Market diet customization services suggesting currently available products which match unique personal characteristics.

Market bespoke genetically modified food to discerning, high end customers to provide the ultimate personalised diet.

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Generate market research on the types of bespoke products customers would most likely adopt.

STAKEHOLDERS + PARTNERSHIPS Partner with research teams advancing micronutrient technology.

Influence policy on genetic and bio-privacy laws.

Create awareness programs on health benefits of bespoke products.

Develop highly secure data management systems to ensure genetic data is safe and only to advise customers on personal wellness plans.

SIGNPOSTS:

SIGNPOSTS:

SIGNPOSTS:

SIGNPOSTS:

Significant advancement in technology for mass market adoption

Consumer adoption of other genetic testing solutions

Consumer lawsuits against data discrimination

Data and bio-privacy laws enacted

SCENARIO FIT:

HIGH TECH ADOPTION

TECHNICALLY STARVING This will be highly resonant, but bespoke diet plans will have to focus on maximizing nutrition with synthetic food due to food shortage

STRATEGIES GMO 2.O

This will be highly resonant, as interest in “eating for your genes” will be very desirable in a technology centric and food abundant world

FOOD ABUNDANCE

FOOD SHORTAGE A TALE OF TWO WORLDS

PLENTY FOR THE COMMONS

This will not resonate in this world – genetic testing will not be advanced enough and/or not trusted

This will not resonate in this world – genetic testing will not be advanced enough and/or not trusted

LOW TECH ADOPTION

TIMELINE: 2016 Partner and support research at Canadian universities which engage in plant genomics and human genetic profile testing.

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2030 Advocate with stakeholders for public policy to protect customer genetic and microbiome profiles.

Begin consumer consultations on concerns and desires for genetic testing and hyper personalised diets

Offer genetic and microbiome testing in Shoppers Drug Mart Pharmacy. Provide customized diet plans for clients according to their profiles.

Offer customized bespoke products made according to genetic profile.

STRATEGY 4: ACCESSIBLE WELLNESS ROBUST STRATEGY

Loblaws has the opportunity to become a leader in the Baby Boomer health and wellness market by leveraging and expanding their existing service model of home pharmaceutical delivery (through Shoppers Home Health). Loblaws can provide a new digitally-based platform which identifies the dietary needs of customers with specific health profiles. It then develops meal plans and places orders for these health conscious ageing consumers. By uniting their pharmaceutical delivery system and Loblaws’ prepared food capabilities, they will provide home food delivery of wellness-building meals.

While this is targeted to the Baby Boomer population, this service will also resonate with those with accessibility concerns, or health conscious individuals pressed for time.

This is a robust strategy because no matter the scenario, there will be a need to provide health conscious and ageing consumers with accessible health options.

Risks, Contingencies, Caveats: The ever-changing conventional wisdom of what is “healthy” means that specific dietary advice may be inaccurate. Liability waivers for services and products will have to be imposed in case of errors or negligence.

Measures of Success: Number of online orders for specialty food, improved wellness and longevity of customers Influence: With their existing product offerings in food and pharmaceutical delivery, Loblaws is well-positioned to influence this space.

Image : Leveraging existing home pharmaceutical delivery and providing healthy food Source: http://mealsonwheelslynchburg.org/ 94

STRATEGIES

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CORPORATE OPERATIONS

PRODUCTS

SERVICES + EDUCATION

Leverage combined service of food products and pharmaceutical products to create a new value proposition offering a health promotion and wellness food delivery plan.on.

Expand pharmacy counselling program to include digital dietitian consultations for customers with diet related needs.

Develop online platform for digital dietary consultation, menu generation, recipes and food ordering.

Partner with software developers and dietitian networks to create platform.

Leverage customer trust in Loblaws and Shoppers Drug Mart brands to create awareness of a healthy diet to support wellness.

Develop partnerships with governments and other stakeholders to create innovative public policy for healthy aging.

Develop food plans and food packages which address specific dietary considerations (e.g.:“Food for Heart Health�)

STAKEHOLDERS + PARTNERSHIPS

SIGNPOSTS:

SIGNPOSTS:

SIGNPOSTS:

SIGNPOSTS:

Concentration of Boomers in relation to Loblaws stores

Monitoring for most common ailments affecting aging population to know which diets to prioritize

Monitoring increasing level of tech savviness of Boomers relative to tech advances to choose right platform setup

Changing government policies for seniors such as retirement rates, pension plans, and so forth

STRATEGY 4: ACCESSIBLE WELLNESS SCENARIO FIT:

CONTINUED

HIGH TECH ADOPTION

TECHNICALLY STARVING

GMO 2.O

Highly resonant, genetic information could play a role in dietary plans (see Bespoke Wellness strategy)

Highly resonant, genetic information could play a role in dietary plans (see Bespoke Wellness strategy)

FOOD ABUNDANCE

FOOD SHORTAGE A TALE OF TWO WORLDS

PLENTY FOR THE COMMONS

Highly resonant, especially with a food shortage, this is a service for survival

Highly resonant, with food abundance, this is a service focused on wellness

LOW TECH ADOPTION

TIMELINE: 2016 Work with Dietitians Canada and government to identify the nutritional requirements for an aging population.

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2030 Secure tax reform program or food subsidies program to support an aging population.

Roll out digital nutritional counselling and food plan delivery program in neighbourhoods with a high density of aging customers.

STRATEGY 5: SECOND LIFE ROBUST STRATEGY WITH FLEXIBLITY

Loblaws has the potential to transform food that was traditionally considered waste into a desirable and affordable new product. By utilizing existing food preparation capacities in store, Loblaws can develop new product lines such as food powders, dehydrated and preserved food, becoming a leader in giving food a second life. These ingredients can then be used for smoothies, baking, or even as a 3D printing medium (if viable).

This is a robust strategy because food waste is a concern across scenarios that must be addressed. With the adoption of 3D printed food technologies, there is some flexibility in this strategy to integrate these new capabilities where possible.

Risks, Contingencies, Caveats: Regulators may not approve the food. Market uptake may not meet financial targets or re-coup capital investment.

Measures of Success: Amount of ‘Second Life’ products sold. Reduced food waste in Loblaws stores.

Influence: Loblaws is well positioned to introduce this product line as the ingredients are readily available in store and dedicated processing space can be made available.

Image: Near expired food can be turned into food powders Source: http://mashable.com/2015/07/15/fopo-food-powder/

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STRATEGIES

STRATEGY 5: SECOND LIFE CONTINUED ACTIONS AND SIGNPOSTS CORPORATE OPERATIONS

PRODUCTS

SERVICES + EDUCATION

Invest in new in-store production facilities to produce Second Life products.

Develop a line of high nutrient, ‘second life’ food powder, preserves and frozen packaged goods from produce close to expiry date.

Educate consumers on benefits of the nutritional and environmental benefits of food re-purposing.

Begin Research and Development around ‘Second Life’ food: freezing, powdering and preserving food close to expiry date.

Work with policy makers to address food health and safety concerns.

Partner with technology suppliers and culinary schools to develop 3D printing food technology and recipes

Roll out 3D printed food medium created from repurposed food powders for sale in conjunction with 3D food printing technology.

Engage consumers cocreation exercise to understand the potential of this technology.

SIGNPOSTS:

SIGNPOSTS:

SIGNPOSTS:

SIGNPOSTS:

Monitor feasibility and desirability of Second Life processing, 3D printed food

Monitor rising food costs as a driver to reduce waste

Monitor popularity of “Intro to 3D Printing” courses

Monitor food waste policy changes

Invest in research for transforming food powders into 3D printable food medium

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Develop awareness and marketing campaign for 3D printed food technology.

STAKEHOLDERS + PARTNERSHIPS

SCENARIO FIT:

HIGH TECH ADOPTION

STRATEGIES

TECHNICALLY STARVING

GMO 2.O

Highly resonant due to food shortage, 3D printing will be very desirable here.

Must be used in conjunction with 3D printing or else will be less resonant in this world.

FOOD ABUNDANCE

FOOD SHORTAGE A TALE OF TWO WORLDS

PLENTY FOR THE COMMONS

This is highly resonant here given the food shortage. 3D printing will not be possible, as technology will not be advanced here.

Must be marketed with a sustainability angle. 3D printing will not be possible, as technology will not be advanced here.

LOW TECH ADOPTION

TIMELINE: 2016 Work with policymakers to address food health and safety concerns (eg. best before dates)

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2030 Begin Research and Development into food repurposing technology.

Explore potential in 3D printed foods through partnerships with technology companies and culinary schools.

Roll out new product line of Second Life Foods produced in store.

If applicable, launch line of 3D printed foods using Second Life products with pre-programmed recipe functions in printing cartridges

STRATEGIC CONCLUSIONS The strategies presented here are meant to provoke and inspire creative innovation in an adapting and changing world. These strategies are suggestions that could now be taken forward, incorporated and evolved, with considerations of both internal decisions and external events. The intent is to unite in a new shared understanding of future uncertainty - and potential - amongst key members of the management team (van der Heijden).

The implications of adopting strategies for the food system can be explored through experiential design. Specifically, “Time Machines� (Candy, 2010), are a useful way of exploring, enabling and understanding the potential effects and reactions of a strategy. The next section shows the process and lessons learned from employing this methodology.

REFERENCES Buchanan, R. (2015). Worlds in the Making: Design, Management, and the Reform of Organizational Culture. She Ji: The Journal of Design, Economics, and Innovation, 5-21. Retrieved September 11, 2015.

Candy, S. (2010, August). The Futures of Everyday Life: Politics and the Design of Experiential Scenarios (PhD Dissertation). University of Hawaii at Manoa.

Van der Heijden. (n.d.). Scenarios, strategy, and the strategy process. Per Research: Proking Strategic Consideration, 1(1). Retrieved February 22, 2016.

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“One cannot think well, love well, sleep well, if one has not dined well.�

Virginia Woolf

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TIME MACHINE It’s the year 2026 and you are at the pre-opening exhibit for Purity, a Danish restaurant phenomenon that started a movement. As you enter the gallery you are bombarded with headlines about food contamination and its detrimental consequences. You hear sounds of a concrete jungle and notice that they are coming from a video portraying the dangers of contaminants in food.

You follow the wall on your right– covered in images of contaminants... Surprisingly, once admitted entry to the gallery space, the mood and tone is quite contradictory. Your Purity experience begins with a warm greeting and instructions to ‘purify’ your hands. The sounds of singing bowls hit your ears, you smell the slight scent of lemon, your eyes adjust to low light and catch pictures of beautiful frozen landscapes...

“Welcome to Purity, come in and be pure.”

Gongs chime. It’s time for an announcement. You are welcomed to the opening exhibition by five ladies. They introduce themselves, explain the dishes in your hands, and express great pride that the movement is coming to Toronto.

“To Purity” they say, “To Purity!” you repeat in unison.

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You take your time exploring the artifacts in the exhibit.

On your way out, you are handed a small bottle with a black charcoal pill in it. Upon leaving the room you feel pure, even though you are entering back into the contaminated world you came from. You anxiously await the opening of Purity in Toronto, craving the feeling of purification once again.

INTRODUCTION TO THE PURITY TIME MACHINE Time machines are immersive experiences that simulate potential futures and are useful to internalise the nuances and implications of a potential scenario. The staging of the time machine creates space to have the dial “turned up” and make living memories which participants take with them beyond the experience.

The time machine, Purity, focused on making food as “pure” as possible. Through various rituals, tools, ingestible purifiers and food treatment methods, Purity brought a new perspective on the restaurant experience in 2026. The time machine took place in a gallery event to celebrate the pre-opening of the Toronto location. By showcasing the different artifacts that Purity has to offer, the event introduced Toronto residents to the Purity movement. The experience was moving, visceral and multi-sensorial.

High impact elements from each scenario helped weave together the alternate reality, Purity in 2026.

HIGH TECH ADOPTION GMO 2.O TECHNICALLY STARVING Smart technology optimizes costs, nutrients and time

Rebuilt trust in science and GMOs Abundance of food powered by science Growing confusion surrounding food and nutrition Technologies for food preservation

FOOD ABUNDANCE

FOOD SHORTAGE A TALE OF TWO WORLDS The rise of urban gardens and inner city farming collectives More rituals around dining Certain products sold at a premium

PLENTY FOR THE COMMONS Bacterial contamination outbreak Local food production thriving Demand for naturalization and mental health issues on rise Food production and distribution system restructured

LOW TECH ADOPTION Opposite page, clockwise from top left: Lessons in Purity – a home guide to help consumers achieve the Purity lifestyle at home– and Bon Appétit Magazine from January 2022 documenting the growing awareness of the Purity movement; Chelation baths remove certain heavy metals and contaminants from food; Charcoal capsules to absorb impurities; Bio-reactive coating on plate reacts to the presence of harmful bacteria; Aeroponic Garden Prototype developed in collaboration with MIT uses water and air to produce nutritious fruits and vegetables; Jelly Appetizer made of agar-agar, ginger for detoxification, and antimicrobial silver leaf; alongside a glass of sparkling water with purifying silver; A typical table setting in a Purity restaurant includes protective glass dome, individual UV light to kill pathogens, and salt and charcoal shakers used to absorb impurities in food.

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Image: Participants were asked to purify their hands upon entering the Purity experience

PROVOKING INTENTIONS The time machine experience introduced a futuristic simulated reality, that is at its essence based on societal trust in science and GMOs. This world showed an increased popularity in pseudoscience fad diets. The intent was to provoke the notion that a society may find it easier to look to the private sector for solutions.

PARTICIPANT IMPRESSIONS Many of the nuances of the Purity experience – the profiteering, the dubious science, the polarized nature of the food subcultures – were sensed and verbalized by the participants. Interestingly, though, there were also perceptions that were not anticipated; fears of racial exclusion and accusations of slacktivism. These conversations lead to themes of elitism, segregation, and even cult-like manipulation. Purity was seen to have played on fear tactics such as those that exist today (for example; the increasingly popular avoidance of gluten). The Purity brand implied that conventional food was contaminated, thus implying a pretentious feeling of entitlement to those who can afford it and an implication of filth for those who could not.

LESSONS FOR IMPLEMENTING STRATEGIES FOR LOBLAWS There are some important lessons that emerged from the Purity experience that can be applied to potential food strategies for Loblaws. Given that our connections to food are deep and complex, any change to the food system is likely to be met with passionate responses. Caution must be taken with the introduction of high tech products such as diet plans, cultured meat, or bespoke genetically modified food to address consumer fears and objections. Moreover, there is mixed understanding of food science, and whether valid science or not, changes will likely be met with both fanatical adoption or harsh skepticism. While food is universally required, new technologies will be unaffordable for the masses. When introducing medically beneficial, yet expensive, food technologies, Loblaws will have to consider the ethics of making healthful food available to only a portion of the population. These valuable observations generated from the time machine participants are important considerations for the success of the proposed strategies.

Image: Mortar and pestle of purifying salt and charcoal 107

“You don’t need a silver fork to eat good food” Paul Prudhomme

CONCLUSION

“Success is empowering, but success is also enthralling and embeds the seeds of failure.

Incumbent firms that dominate their markets often fail to maintain that domination for long, despite having all the advantages they enjoy of market leadership�

-Gerard Tellis via Buchanan, 2015 The work presented is a complete look into the process of foresight methodology as taught in Foresight Studio, Strategic Foresight and Innovation, OCAD University, 2016.

The work began by exploring the trends and many facets of how people around the world relate to and interact with food each and every day. This rich contextual information helped build four different scenario worlds, each with its own reality and set of opportunities and limitations, as we move towards 2030. Each world presented can be used to understand both the future’s potential and begin to consider the variability of what could come. Certain descriptive elements of each scenario world were drawn out and integrated into an immersive, staged experiential time machine. This experience was used to present participants with an opportunity to tangibly feel how a particular strategic approach might imagine itself in the future. It is against this interwoven backdrop of findings that five key strategic options were presented. Using the findings from all aspects of the foresight approach we delivered five strategic directions that Loblaws could build upon to plan their strategic map for the future.

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As Loblaws continues to engage in strategic conversations with this process in mind, a key point must be considered. The strategies presented here are only one frame to view the world through. However, in order to ensure the success of these strategies, continued use of design thinking tools must be employed. These steps - thinking, reflection, and action - must be employed continuously and cyclically until the futures become clear (Buchanan, 2015).

The process is not complete; it is only the beginning.

REFERENCE Buchanan, R. (2015). Worlds in the Making: Design, Management, and the Reform of Organizational Culture. She Ji: The Journal of Design, Economics, and Innovation, 5-21. Retrieved September 11, 2015.

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THE TEAM

HALA BEISHA

JANICE DE JONG

Hala is a storyteller, organizer who believes that people are the heart of business. With advanced degrees in business strategy, strategic marketing, branding and communication, she has worked with organizations at various stages of development and brings hands-on operational experience from the field.

With a background in Industrial Design and Psychology, Janice de Jong is a trend forecaster and design strategist based in Kitchener, Ontario. Driven by the belief that understanding today can build a better tomorrow, she is passionate about inspiring others to create the future.

Specialising in the high tech industry, her work has been seen in the hands of millions of mobile phone users.

She holds numerous patents and her work has been recognised by several design awards including Red Dot.

Hala is quick to see and understand complex interrelationships between people, things and the “big” idea.

She’s a firm believer in the power of individuals to mobilize for social good and the value of active community engagement. She is also a certified professional life coach and currently conducting research on the subject of emotional human resilience.

Her motivation is to deliver work that is bold, ambitious and pragmatic. Hala has applied her skill sets in a multitude of settings such as: working as a key member of the Opening Team of two Four Seasons hotels, collaborating on an eight month strategic assessment of a theater group in Toronto, creating a Graduate Insights Report for an affiliate of Engineers Without Borders (Admitting Failure: Insights Report at the Intersection of Innovation, Creativity, Change Management, Leadership and Organizational Behavior), and tapping into funding opportunities for the first “Fail Forward Conference” at MaRS Discovery District.

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A dynamic speaker, Janice has guest lectured on the intersection of trends and design at various universities, including Art Center College of Design, Carleton University, Wilfrid Laurier University. She holds engaging workshops, including at the Fluxible 2015 conference on how triangulating user research techniques can lead to innovative products.

By day Janice is pursuing her Masters of Design at OCAD University, but by night she is an avid knitter, gardener, cook and wannabe yogi. She volunteers at the Kitchener Waterloo Humane Society as a Cat Adoption Counsellor, travels solo to far-flung places against better judgement, and dreams of owning an alpaca farm.

DONNA KLAIMAN

ROXANNE NICOLUSSI

JENNY WHYTE

Donna believes that we have the power to shape the future if we apply good design thinking and foresight to all aspects of living. Design of public policy, environments, education, products, and services will shape how we live and leave a sustainable legacy. In this rapidly changing world that drives today’s high performance organizations, we will need to come up with new ways for supporting wellness, creativity, and high levels of productivity. We can support healthpromoting behaviors by encouraging people of all ages, abilities, and personal resources to re-think what is possible, imagine the future and plan and participate in innovation and change.

Roxanne Nicolussi is a budding strategist with a strong drive to innovate change. By refusing to say no to opportunities, she has held impressive titles such as Vice President of Marketing for the Laurier Consulting Club, Creative Director for an academic journal, Web Editor for an art and literary magazine, Advertising Assistant for WLU publications, and a Graphic Designer for an adhoc advertising club – all in the last year of her undergraduate degree.

Her fearless spirit has also enabled her to work and travel in 15 different countries.

Jenny is a creative thinker that has a knack for synthesizing and integrating diverging concepts.

An active observer, she’s always looking for clues as to how to unlock a deeper understanding of people, place and action.

Donna has a richly textured career woven together through many facets of her professional life as a practicing occupational therapist with lengthy engagement in health policy and program design; and her personal experience in researching the application of art to reconstruct a community torn by civil conflict, All these experiences provide the backdrop for her passion to promote wellness and creativity in communities and workplaces.

Having facilitated many multi-stakeholder initiatives from design to implementation, Donna believes that a successful leader should strive to see the world through others eyes, hear the sounds that others hear and sense the meaning of their words to foster a culture engaged in co-creation.

In her spare time, Donna explores the mystery of weaving and textile art, volunteers at a food bank, and practices yoga to nourish her body and spirit.

Able to adapt smoothly into different roles and situations, Roxanne has taught herself several design programs and continues to explore new software. She sees businesses as more than just profitable entities, but as catalysts for change.

Roxanne has had past occupations in corporate communications, writing speech notes for the Ontario Minister of Northern Development and Mines and internal communications for Ontario Power Generation. She became too passionate about communicating her own messages, and decided to steer towards strategic foresight and innovation, as well as academia. These interests brought her to pursue OCAD University’s Master of Design in Strategic Foresight and Innovation program. She wants to inspire and create in one way or another.

Previously studying social geography and history, she has an acute awareness of how place and history create the tides of the current. While wading through these tumultuous currents, she became committed to learning how to skillfully navigate a change in course, she feels the world urgently needs.

Her first career was an educator. Working in primary schools all over London, UK, she explored the power and the descent of the current educational system. A system rot with stale pedagogy and classist intent. She did her best to cultivate patience and inspire young minds to think curiously and critically. Coming back to Canada, she knew she wanted to participate more actively in the remix education desperately needs.

The Strategic Foresight and Innovation program continues to provide the box of tools that could be used to fix and remixed current conditions.

Foresight studio in particular, has left her intrigued about the role future studies could play in inspiring a 21st century classroom.

A yoga and hoop addict in her pastime, she remains committed to keeping herself and her attitude about life, light-hearted, positive and grounded in appreciation.

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APPENDICES

APPENDIX A: MAPPING TRENDS TO SCENARIOS TRENDS

GMO 2.0

Rise of Meal Sharing Platforms

•

Rise of the Machine

•

PLENTY FOR THE COMMONS

A TALE OF TWO WORLDS

TECHNICALLY STARVING

•

Eco Conscious Dining

•

Label Gazing Forever Fresh

•

•

The Zero Mile Diet

•

Digital Gastronomy

•

The People vs. Food Science

•

Kitchen of the Future

•

Future of Food Shopping

•

•

Genetically Modified Meat

•

•

Cultured Food

•

•

•

•

•

•

Fishing for Solutions

•

Need for Seeds

•

Low Income? How Health

•

Rebranding the Gross

•

Animals as Sentient

•

•

Rethinking Food “Waste”

• •

• •

Bodies as a Resource Fighting Colony Collapse

•

•

•

•

•

•

• 115

APPENDIX B: WINDTUNNELLING

SCENARIO 1: GMO 2.0 GMO 2.0

PLENTY FOR THE COMMONS

A TALE OF TWO WORLDS

Own the Urban Local Food System with Vertical Aeroponic gardens

L

H

M* (only if GMO free) Signpost changes in GMO perception

(because this requires high tech)

Pioneer Digital Gastronomy

H

L

L

H Develop the Hyper-Personalised Diet

Champion Alternative Proteins (lab grown meat)

Embrace New Flavours (and Newcomers) - Western Asian foods

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TECHNICALLY STARVING

H

H (great for food repurposing!)

M

Signpost - monitor customization trends in medicine

L

L

(not the personalized food)

H

H

H

H

H

M (amplify the flavour to make people feel more satiated)

H

H

SCENARIO 2: PLENTY FOR THE COMMONS GMO 2.0 Become your own supplier (Manage Ambassador of Green Program redistribution centre)

PLENTY FOR THE COMMONS

A TALE OF TWO WORLDS

TECHNICALLY STARVING

L

H

H

M (larger growers, not local small scale growers)

Become your own supplier (Marketplace Partnerships)

M (would have to be GMO)

H

H

L

Green Consultants

M (GMO at home)

H

H

L

Champion Alternative Proteins (mealworm manufacturing)

M (as long as Loblaws sells the finished product)

H

H

M (as long as Loblaws sells the finished product)

H

H

H (at high end of the market)

H

Embrace New Flavours (spice trader)

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APPENDIX B: WINDTUNNELLING CONTINUED

SCENARIO 3: A TALE OF TWO WORLDS GMO 2.0

PLENTY FOR THE COMMONS

A TALE OF TWO WORLDS

TECHNICALLY STARVING

Re-purpose (Rebrand/Repackage bruised) Food

L

H

H

H

Foster community engagement

L

H

H

H

Starter Kits (meal worm)

M

H

H

M

Meal Sharing Hub (app)

M

H

H

H

H (but to curb obesity)

M

H

H

M

H

H

H

New utensil design - “feel full”

Embrace new flavours (selling tajines to newcomers) 118

SCENARIO 4: TECHNICALLY STARVING GMO 2.0

PLENTY FOR THE COMMONS

A TALE OF TWO WORLDS

TECHNICALLY STARVING

H (assuming technology advanced signpost)

H

Become your own supplier - large scale greenhouses with robotic workers (or invest in growers)

H

H (assume not GMO food)

Champion Alternative Proteins (cultured meat)

H

M (distrust for M (it might not even synthetic products) be possible here)

Embrace New Flavours (technology to identify and mimic flavours - fillers and fake for low end and real for high end)

H

H ( no fillers)

M

M (only the real available to the high end)

Enable Shoppers to Plan Nutritious meals - through genetic info

H

L

L

H

Education - on latest tech in home growing

M/H (they love the tech in growing food, but may not prioritize home grown)

L

L

H

H

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