IEO Spring 2025_FINAL

A Public Polic y Journal Spring 2025

IE Goes Red

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CalWORKS Implementation p. 5 SoCal’s Aviation Past

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SoCal’s Space Future

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Image under license from Adobe Stock.com

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e begin this issue of the Inland Empire Outlook with a quick look at changing voting patterns in the Inland Empire. On November 5, 2024, Donald Trump was elected as the 47th president of the United States.

He gained support in Democratic strongholds across the country, including California. In winning Riverside County and San Bernardino County, Trump is the first Republican candidate to carry the Inland Empire following Democratic victories by Barack Obama (2008, 2012), Hillary Clinton (2016), and Joe Biden (2020).

Our second article examines the implementation of the California Work Opportunity and Responsibility to Kids (CalWORKS) program in Riverside County and San Bernardino County. CalWORKs is a welfare program that gives cash aid and services to eligible California families.

The program requires recipients to participate in Welfare to Work programs. Although there are differences in the programs offered by the two Inland Empire counties, both show similar results with respect to employment rates.

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Our third article traces the storied history of the aerospace industry in Southern California. Once known as the greatest aviation cluster in the world, the industry saw sharp declines with the end of the Cold War. Drawdowns in defense spending led to a transformation over the past three decades from large-scale manufacturing to specialized research and development.

We continue our discussion of Southern California’s aerospace industry in our fourth article. It traces the region’s transformation from specializing in traditional aviation activities to incubating the next generation of commercial spaceflight innovators.

We hope you find this edition of Inland Empire Outlook a useful guide. Please visit our website, www.RoseInstitute. org, for information on more Rose Institute research

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Inland Empire Goes Red

Image under license from Adobe Stock

by Quinten Carney ’26

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n November 5, 2024, Donald Trump was elected as the 47th president of the United States and, in the process, became the first Republican presidential candidate since George W. Bush in 2004 to carry the Inland Empire region. Trump was also the first Republican presidential candidate since George W. Bush to win the national popular vote, going from a two-party margin of D+4.5% for Biden in 2020 to R+1.50 in 2024, representing a six-point swing nationally towards the Republicans. Moreover, Trump gained support among Black and Latino voters, especially younger male voters, helping him improve dramatically in traditionally Democratic states such as California, New York, and New Jersey. Along with Trump’s victory in the presidential election, Republicans retained the House of Representatives and gained control of the Senate.

Since World War II, the Inland Empire region generally leaned Republican in presidential elections with some exceptions, such as Lindon Johnson’s victory in 1964. In 1992, however, Democratic candidate Bill Clinton carried both San Bernardino County and Riverside County demonstrating the region’s shift towards political competitiveness. Republican George W. Bush performed strongly, winning the region by a margin of 4.2% in 2000 and 14.5% in 2004. According to Edison Media Research and Mitofsky International exit polling from the 2004 election, Bush performed better among Latino voters than any other national Republican in the 21st century, getting 44% to Democratic candidate John Kerry’s 53%. This proved especially important in the increasingly diverse and non-White Hispanic populations in the Inland Empire, a pattern Donald Trump replicated in 2024. Trump edged out Biden, garnering 50.85% of the Inland Empire vote. This represents a swing of more than 11 percentage points toward Republicans as the region was D+9.38% in 2020.

Democratic candidates Barack Obama, Hillary Clinton, and Joe Biden all carried the Inland Empire in their presidential runs, with Biden posting the strongest performance in recent memory. During this period, San Bernardino County consistently voted to the left of Riverside County, a trend that reversed in 2024. One explanation for this change may be that Riverside County has a higher percentage of adults with a bachelor’s degree and more Whites than San Bernardino County. These two demographic characteristics trended less Republican than the nation in 2024. When examining 2024 election data by city, compiled by Jeff Horseman of the Southern California news group, a clear trend emerges where cities such as Indian Wells, with a high population of White college-educated voters, had the smallest shift to Republicans.

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Inland Empire Presidential Vote Year

Democratic Candidate

Republican Candidate

Margin

2000

47.91%

52.09%

R+4.18%

2004

42.74%

57.26%

R+14.53%

2008

52.17%

47.83%

D+4.34%

2012

52.21%

47.79%

D+4.34%

2016

54.17%

45.83%

D+8.34%

2020

54.69%

45.31%

D+9.38%

2024

49.15%

50.85%

R+1.70%

Source: David Leip. Atlas of U.S. Presidential Elections

Trump’s victory in the Inland Empire likely helped propel down-ballot Republican candidates, such as Jeff Gonzalez in the 36th Assembly district and Leticia Castillo in the 58th Assembly district, to win in state legislative elections. Both of these victories took place in districts with a significant percentage of Latino voters, possibly showing that Latinos may be a growing part of the Republican coalition at all levels of government, an important fact in the diverse California electorate. In addition to Trump’s victory in the Inland Empire, he became the first Republican presidential candidate to carry Imperial County since George H.W. Bush in 1988. His carrying Imperial County and other monumental victories in heavily Hispanic areas such as Rio Grande Valley may signal that more culturally conservative Latino voters are moving away from the Democratic party, depriving it of a historically significant part of its political coalition.

It is difficult to predict precisely how political coalitions will change through the course of the second Trump presidency, but current trends suggest that Republicans will continue to make inroads with Latinos and other minority voters nationally. Without strong margins among these voters, many regions similar to the Inland Empire will become more politically competitive, challenging Democrats to maintain their historic dominance. ♦

Source: The New York Times, “An Extremely Detailed Map of the 2024 Election.”

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Bibliography Datar, Saurabh, Alex Lemonides, Ilana Marcus, Eli Murray, Ethan Singer, and Christine Zhang. “An Extremely Detailed Map of the 2024 Election.” The New York Times. March 27, 2025, online edition. https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2025/us/elections/2024-election-map-precinct-results.html Edison Media Research, Staff. “View Election 2004 Exit Poll Results.” Edison Media Research and Mitofsky International, November 3, 2004. https://www.edisonresearch.com/view_election_2/.

Groves, Stephen, and Lisa Mascaro. “Republicans Win 218 US House Seats, Giving Donald Trump and the Party Control of Government.” The Associated Press, November 14, 2024. https://apnews.com/article/republicans-house-elections-e3754a684a7b96b129841d4b207c15e9.

Horseman, Jeff. “Here’s how Donald Trump Won the Inland Empire, City by City.” San Bernardino Sun, January 9, 2025. https://www.sbsun.com/2025/01/05/heres-how-donald-trump-won-the-inland-empire-city-by-city/.

Leip, David. Atlas of U.S. Presidential Elections. Accessed March 17, 2025. https://uselectionatlas.org/RESULTS/.

Lodhi, Humera, Shelly Cheng, Parker Kaufmann, Pablo Barria Urenda, and EJ Fox . “AP VoteCast: How America Voted in 2024.” The Associated Press, November 5, 2025. https://apnews.com/projects/election-results-2024/votecast/.

Montenegro Brown, Richard. “Republican Jeff Gonzalez Declares Victory in AD36 Race.” The Calexico Chronicle, November 18, 2024. https://calexicochronicle.com/2024/11/18/republican-jeff-gonzalez-declares-victory-in-ad36-race/.

Public Records Branch, Public Disclosure and Media Relations Division, Office of Communications, Federal Election Commission, State Elections Offices, and State Certificates of Vote U.S. National Archives and Records Administration. “OFFICIAL 2024 PRESIDENTIAL GENERAL ELECTION RESULTS.” FEC.GOV. Federal Elections Commission, November 5, 2024. https://www.fec.gov/resources/cms-content/documents/2024presgeresults.pdf.

Suzuki, Kori. “After Decades of Voting Blue, Imperial County Chose Donald Trump.” KPBS, January 15, 2025. https:// www.kpbs.org/news/politics/2025/01/15/after-decades-of-voting-blue-imperial-county-chose-donald-trump.

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CalWORKs Implementation in the IE

by Deborah Aguirre ’28

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he California Work Opportunity and Responsibility to Kids (CalWORKs) program has existed since 1997 as a part of the Temporary Assistance for Needy Families (TANF). CalWORKs is a cash assistance program to help families with housing, food, utilities, clothing, or medical care. It aims to assist low-income families to achieve self-sufficiency by promoting job preparedness and work, paralleling the same goals as its parent program. Recipients must participate in Welfare-to-Work (WTW) programs to receive CalWORKS benefits. The WTW programs help recipients seek employment through job training, career services, and other support services such as childcare and transportation.

CalWORKs has been found to help recipients achieve higher earnings and increased work opportunities through training and access to job opportunities. The program is implemented in various ways across the state. Successful programs often combine labor force attachment (LFA) strategies, prioritizing rapid employment, with human capital development (HCD) strategies, which focus on skill-building and education. Offices that emphasize engaging case management see increased employment outcomes among participants. This finding highlights the need for participant-focused strategies, which entail assessments and individual planning, and organization-focused strategies, which include information and outreach.

Despite the benefits that TANF and similar programs may offer, they still struggle to help participants achieve true selfsufficiency. Many families who transition out of TANF still earn close to minimum wage, making it difficult to achieve true self-sufficiency. Strict sanctions also make it difficult to focus on employment gains, as the stringent requirements typically lead to lower employment rates and earnings among recipients. For example, the conditions for receiving CalWORKs benefits are so burdensome to participants that they often feel discouraged to work, perceiving the costs of the program as greater than the benefits.

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Recognizing the need to evaluate program effectiveness, California authorized the CalWORKs Outcomes and Accountability Review (Cal-OAR) in 2017. The initiative aims to assess the performance of various CalWORKs offices across the state, with the first five-year cycle beginning in 2021 and continuing until 2026. Cal-OAR is comprised of two main parts: (1) a county CalWORKs self-assessment (Cal-CSA) that describes how a county office works and (2) a CalWORKs System Improvement Plan (Cal-SIP) report that describes what a county will do to improve its CalWORKs program. CalWORKs operates with the same goal of self-sufficiency for families in all counties of California; thus, the reports allow for a comparison of the program’s implementation in different counties.

This article will use Cal-CSA and Cal-SIP reports to explore the differences in the CalWORKS WTW programs in San Bernardino County and Riverside County. These reports are a part of the first Cal-OAR cycle from 2021 to 2026; they are based on a California Department of Social Services (CDSS) template. This study evaluates the programs using four broad categories based on the work of researchers like Katherine M. Vu, Gayle Hamilton, and Allison De Marco. The management category covers the county’s CalWORKs office’s internal structure. The services category addresses the different services provided to participants, which vary by county. The overall approach category assesses the types of strategies employed in the overall program, as well as whether the county focuses on employment or human capital. The self-assessment category reflects the challenges and needed changes identified by each county. These categories provide a multifaceted assessment of the CalWORKs program in Riverside County and San Bernardino County.

Categories for Analysis Cal-CSA/Cal-SIP Reports

Management

Services

Overall Approach

Self-Assessment

Office Characteristrics

Services Offered

LFA or HCD

Recognized Issues and Course of Action

Employee Characteristics

Service Access

Overall Strategy (Participant/ Organization Focused)

Management Approaches

Information of Services

Sanction Policies

Categories based on Vu et al. (2009), Hamilton (2002), De Marco et al. (2008) Graphic by Deborah Aguirre ’28

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The WTW programs in both counties share many similarities. These include the services offered, information shared by case managers, accessibility in services, participant-focused strategies, organization-focused strategies, and issues recognized. Significant differences arise in the type of partnerships offered, staff training, average size of caseloads, case management approaches, types of employment opportunities, educational opportunities, and overall approach.

Many of the differences between the counties come down to management and services categories. One notable difference is the use of community partnerships, particularly in Riverside County. Riverside County outsources many of its programs, including the Home Visiting Program, housing services, and many of the services that fall into disability and special needs services. It partners with the Riverside Housing Authority, the Riverside University Health System, the Continuum of Care, and other departments within the Riverside County system. Outsourcing means that for particular services, there are separate case management systems, and less work is solely on the shoulders of those at the main CalWORKs office.

Riverside County also offers its case managers a smaller average caseload per type and more tools to manage each case.

Using the Caseload Management Tool and the Success Tracker and Readiness Tool, case managers in Riverside County can more easily track the activities of their clients as well as their progress toward addressing various needs.

Riverside County

Management

Services

Overall Approach

Self-Assessment

Extensive hierarchical management system, many programs outsourced to community organizations, 15 district offices

Work-first services/ expenses/search, subsidized employment, vocational training, home visit, abuse services, learning disability evaluations, transportation, childcare, homeless assistance, ESL/ASL support, Linkages program

HCD with purpose of LFA, work skills and barrier removal for job acquisition

Improve engagement and orientation attendance rates, increase program awareness, focus on bilingual populations, and update information and improve marketing

Staff onboarding relates to empathy training, interactive interviewing, reengagement training, very small caseload size by type

Universal assistance across offices, monthly updates, consistent planning, S.T.A.R.T. and caseload management tools to track progress

Support services to participate in programs, but sanctions for nonexempt clients

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Participant-focused with assessments and individual planning, and barrier removal organization-focused with strategic offices, flyers, and monthlycheck-ins, sanctions, and expectation setting

Website access, telephone calls and virtual appointments

Orientation, info flyers, appraisal, assessment

Source: Riverside County Cal-CSA and Cal-SIP Reports Graphic by Deborah Aguirre ’28

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San Bernardino County lacks similar tools to scrutinize each client. The overall management approach to each case is also significantly different, even if the frequency of interactions between case managers and their clients is the same (monthly check-ins in each county). San Bernardino County employs a “one-and-done” principle that makes each meeting with clients more task-oriented and more about going down a checklist, whereas Riverside has more emphasis on sharing resources with clients and making meaningful connections. The staff training in each county also showcases this. Riverside County prepares its staff to engage more emotionally and emphasizes empathy with clients, whereas San Bernardino County is more focused on training its staff for practical situations. The training in San Bernardino County is focused on customer service, corrective action, quality reviews, and field experience, rather than building relationships.

The focus on work services in each county is very similar, as both employ subsidized employment programs and opportunities to get the resources required to seek jobs. However, the programs used to offer employment in each county are different. San Bernardino County uses Community Employment Pathways (CEP), CalWORKs Subsidized Employment Program (CSEP), CalWORKs Youth Employment Program (CYEP), and Work Experience (WEX). Riverside County also uses a form of WEX but incorporates its own Expanded Subsidized Employment (ESE). The main difference is in the integration of services within each employment program. Riverside County incorporates vocational services and retention services

San Bernardino County

Management

Services

Overall Approach

Self-Assessment

Less hierarchical office, 22 offices, online services

Work-first services/ expenses/search, home visit, abuse services, learning disability evaluations, transportation, childcare, homeless assistance, ESL/ASL support, community college partnership

LFA dominant, some educational opportunities

Improve engagement, orientation attendance, and appraisal rates, promote WTW and increase marketing and resource materials to improve information dissemination

Staff onboarding relates to etiquette, sensitivity, field training, customer service, much larger caseload size by type

Task-based management, oneand-done principle, holistic case management, monthly progress reports

Self-service online portals, self-service kiosks

Participant-focused with assessments and individual planning, organization-focused with strategic offices, flyers, and monthlycheck-ins, sanctions, and expectation setting

Orientation, info flyers, appraisal, assessment

Support services to participate in programs, but sanctions for nonexempt clients

Source: San Bernardino County Cal-CSA and Cal-SIP Reports Graphic by Deborah Aguirre ’28 8 | Inland Empire Outlook | Spring 2025

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and even offers jobs through partnerships in county offices and external organizations. The program in Riverside is much more intertwined, whereas San Bernardino tends to have separate programs for each work-related service.

Most of the other support services offered by the two counties are similar, with only significant distinctions when it comes to housing, family management, and educational opportunities. Both counties offer assistance in these areas, but Riverside County collaborates with external offices and intensive case management for those in vulnerable family situations. When it comes to educational opportunities, San Bernardino County has direct partnerships with community colleges and offers practical skill training such as filing income taxes. There is also more support for English as a second language and American Sign Language in San Bernardino. Riverside County tends not to have partnerships in these areas.

Both counties have recognized that they lack adequate outreach efforts, which is the only organization-focused strategy with which they both struggle. San Bernardino has had slightly more success, managing to disseminate information through flyers in offices and resource rooms, but has recognized the need to further raise awareness in the community.

Both Riverside and San Bernardino plan to work on improving the flow of information between staff and clients, as well as improving marketing to the community.

Both counties offer some elements of labor force attachment (LFA) and human capital development (HCD). Riverside County, however, has managed to blend the two more successfully. San Bernardino County, despite having aspects of HCD through educational opportunities, uses a dominantly LFA approach. The main goal as soon as clients become a part of CalWORKs is to seek employment immediately, and the support services are meant to remove barriers that might prevent the opportunity to work. San Bernardino County is less focused on developing skills than on inserting clients into the workforce. Riverside County has some LFA aspects, seeking to move clients into employment as soon as possible, but does prioritize the development of practical work skills. The use of their employment programs encourages clients to seek work that can get them started on developing skills—sometimes even through work assignments—before pushing them to seek better jobs.

How do the two counties compare in successfully connecting clients to jobs? The average employment rate for the two counties is relatively close. It has fluctuated over the years, with San Bernardino County slightly higher in 2021 and 2022.

Source: CalWORKs Outcomes and Accountability Review Dashboard

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Riverside County pulled ahead in the last quarter of 2022. The most recent numbers for the end of 2023 are 37.9% for Riverside County and 37.2% for San Bernardino County.

Engagement rate refers to the percentage of CalWORKs participants who are engaged in welfare-to-work activities.

Riverside County consistently has a significantly higher engagement rate, some 20 percentage points above San Bernardino County. As of December 2023, engagement rates are 57.3% for Riverside County and 37.5% for San Bernardino County.

There are a few potential explanations for the large gap. The staff training and management approach in Riverside prioritizes building relationships with clients, rather than being “one-and-done” like San Bernardino. Building relationships could contribute to clients feeling more inclined to reach out for help and engage with more services, leading to higher engagement rates. The use of more interactive tools also allows for more meaningful interactions and detailed check-ins, motivating clients to perform more consistently. Outsourcing various services could also lead to more specialization within the services themselves, allowing case managers to focus on being guides to clients rather than being responsible for the delivery of multiple services. The case manager can focus on realistic goal-setting with individuals on a more detailed level, which has been found to be critical to clients’ success. Outsourcing also allows for the program to be more interconnected with the community and offers opportunities for the program to go beyond county offices.

Both counties recognize the need to improve outreach efforts and awareness in their respective Cal-SIP reports. Both want to expand their efforts on social media and marketing to make their services more known to the community. ♦

Source: CalWORKs Outcomes and Accountability Review Dashboard

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Bibliography Bozick, Robert, Lynn A. Karoly, Anamarie A. Whitaker, Beverly A. Weidmer, Ashley N. Muchow, and Italo A. Gutierrez. “A Descriptive Profile of CalWORKs Recipients and Their Families: Initial Findings from the First Wave of the California Socioeconomic Survey.” Santa Monica, CA: RAND Corporation. https://www.rand.org/pubs/working_papers/WR1325. html.

California Department of Social Services. (2019, July 1). CalWORKs Outcomes and Accountability Review Dashboard. https:// public.tableau.com/app/profile/cadeptofsocialservices/viz/CalWORKsOutcomesandAccountabilityReviewDashboard_15620033528360/TOC CalWORKs County Self-Assessment (CSA) Riverside County Report. (n.d.). California Department of Social Services. https://cdss. ca.gov/Portals/9/CalWORKs/Cal-OAR/CSA%20Riversides.pdf CalWORKs County Self-Assessment (CSA) San Bernardino County report. (n.d.). California Department of Social Services. https:// cdss.ca.gov/Portals/9/CalWORKs/Cal-OAR/csa-report-san-bernardino.pdf CalWORKs System Improvement Plan (CAL-SIP) Riverside County report. (n.d.). California Department of Social Services. https:// cdss.ca.gov/Portals/9/CalWORKs/Cal-OAR/Cal-SIP%20Reports/cal-sip-riverside-county.pdf CalWORKs System Improvement Plan (CAL-SIP) San Bernardino County Report. (n.d.). California Department of Social Services. https://cdss.ca.gov/Portals/9/CalWORKs/Cal-OAR/Cal-SIP%20Reports/calsip-san-bernardino.pdf Danielson, Caroline, and Daniel Krimm. 2012. “California’s Welfare Recipients: Family Circumstances, Income, and Time on Aid Among CalWORKs Families.” Public Policy Institute of California. Public Policy Institute of California. https://www.ppic. org/wp-content/uploads/content/pubs/report/R_512CDR.pdf#:~:text=Families%20on%20CalWORKs%20are%20 clearly%20disadvantaged%20%E2%80%93%20they,on%20the%20program%20for%20two%20years%20or%20less.

De Marco, Allison, Michael Austin, and Julian Chow. 2008. “Making the Transition From Welfare to Work: Employment Experiences of CalWORKs Participants in the San Francisco Bay Area.” Journal of Human Behavior in the Social Environment 18 (4): 414–40. https://doi.org/10.1080/10911350802486809.

Dyke, Andrew, Carolyn J. Heinrich, Peter R. Mueser, Kenneth R. Troske, and Kyung‐Seong Jeon. 2006. “The Effects of Welfare‐to‐Work Program Activities on Labor Market Outcomes.” Journal of Labor Economics 24 (3): 567–607. https://doi. org/10.1086/504642.

Hamilton, Gayle. 2002. “Moving People From Welfare to Work: Lessons From the National Evaluation of Welfare-to-Work Strategies.” https://aspe.hhs.gov/reports/moving-people-welfare-work-lessons-national-evaluation-welfare-work-strategies.

Kim, Na Yeon, and Frances Stokes Berry. 2018. “Do State‐Customized TANF Work Policies Actually Reduce Unemployment?*.”

Social Science Quarterly 100 (3): 911–22. https://doi.org/10.1111/ssqu.12566.

Moffitt, Robert A. 2002. “From Welfare to Work: What the Evidence Shows.” Brookings, January 2, 2002. https://www.brookings.edu/articles/from-welfare-to-work-what-the-evidence-shows/.

Patek, Gabriel. 2023. “Comparing CalWORKs Take-Up Rates Across Demographic Groups.” Legislative Analyst Office. Legislative Analyst Office. https://lao.ca.gov/reports/2023/4678/CalWORKS-Demographic-Take-Up-Rates-021423.pdf.

Pizzolato, Jane Elizabeth, Avery B. Olson, and Laura N. Monje-Paulson. 2017. “Finding Motivation to Learn: Exploring Achievement Goals in California Community College CalWORKs Students.” Journal of Adult Development 24 (4): 295–307. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10804-017-9267-8.

Stanczyk, Alex, Sarah Carnochan, Evelyn Hengeveld-Bidmon, and Michael J. Austin. 2018. “Family-Focused Services for TANF Participants Facing Acute Barriers to Work: Pathways to Implementation.” Families in Society the Journal of Contemporary Social Services 99 (3): 219–31. https://doi.org/10.1177/1044389418783253.

Vu, Catherine M., Elizabeth K. Anthony, and Michael J. Austin. 2009. “Strategies for Engaging Adults in Welfare-to-Work Activities.” Families in Society the Journal of Contemporary Social Services 90 (4): 359–66. https://doi.org/10.1606/10443894.3929.

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SoCal’s Aviation Past

C17 Globemaster III over March Air Reserve Base Photo credit: Chad McElroy ’26

by Chad McElroy ’26

S

outhern California’s aerospace industry used to be known as the greatest aviation cluster in the world. Originally home to aviation giants such as Lockheed, Douglass, Northrop, and RyanAir, the region pioneered the development of cheap civilian air travel, and by the end of the Second World War, had employed hundreds of thousands of Californians to fuel America’s unparalleled industrial might. The Cold War’s burgeoning “military-industrial complex” found fertile ground in Southern California. Billions of federal dollars poured into the region’s aerospace industry, which by the 1960s had come to expand into the spaceflight industry. Billions more went toward companies supporting both the civilian Apollo moon program and military weapons and space launch programs utilizing America’s “Western Launch Range.” At its peak in 1987, nearly 25% of all aerospace employment nationwide was in the state of California, with one in ten American aerospace workers employed in Los Angeles County alone.

California’s aerospace industry found its niche in advanced scientific research, development, testing, and evaluation (RDT&E). Rather than focusing solely on short-term manufacturing, which could provide high profits during wartime but at the risk of sharp drawdowns in peacetime, RDT&E contracts could continue over long periods of both war and peace, as the American military is always pursuing the next generation technology. Luckily, Southern California is home to some of the best STEM and engineering universities in the world, including the University of Southern California, University of California Los Angeles, California Institute of Technology, California Polytechnic State University at San Luis Obispo, Harvey Mudd College, and many others, providing a consistent pipeline of highly educated workers into the regional aerospace workforce.

SpaceX SAOCOM-1A ov The end of the Cold War, however, brought an end to Southern California aerospace’s “golden age.” The early 1990s saw sharp drawdowns in defense spending, and these cuts hit Southern California hard. More than two hundred thousand aerospace workers lost their jobs, and many major firms consolidated or left the state. By 2014, the regional aerospace industry was but half of what it had been in 1990. By the late 2000s, aerospace companies such as Northrop Grumman were relocating their headquarters out of the state to places like Washington, DC and Maryland, reflecting a continuing outflow of jobs from the Golden State.

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Defense dollars continue to pour into California, and aerospace continues to dominate our state’s defense industry. Many legacy aviation companies like Northrop Grumman and Lockheed Martin continue to operate in the region, and new ventures such as Anduril Industries seek to kick off a new era of privately funded defense contracting. While these firms may not conduct the large-scale manufacturing that dominated the region throughout the 20th century, they have turned to specializing in research and development, alongside maintaining America’s most potent military technologies.

Most significantly, the commercial spaceflight industry has come to dominate the Southern California aerospace sector. While wellknown organizations like Boeing and Aerojet Rocketdyne continue their storied legacies in spaceflight excellence, newer giants like SpaceX have come to spark a revolution in spaceflight technology that is centered in the Greater LA region. New space startups have come to find locations like Long Beach and El Segundo to be welcome homes, and Lompoc’s Vandenberg Space Force Base has skyrocketed to become the second most popular spaceport in the world.

Ultimately, Southern California has transformed from an aviation hub to a space industry powerhouse, and the region is playing a crucial role in incubating the burgeoning commercial space sector.

The broad story seems to spell an end to Southern California’s aerospace industry.

But in reality, it is a transition, not an end.

National Security Funding in the Golden State and Southern California California’s deep ties to the American military industry helped industrialize and grow the state throughout the 20th century, and while Southern California’s aviation industry may never return to its former glory, the corporations that continue to call the Golden State home remain strong contributors to the region’s economic prosperity and America’s national security.

Despite the end of the Cold War, California remains an invaluable contributor and benefactor of the United States’ national security apparatus. The Department of Defense reports that California is the largest recipient of Defense Department spending. In Fiscal Year 2023 (FY23), the state received $60.8 billion in DoD funding, a total that amounts to nearly 10% of total US defense spending. This funding supports millions of Californians through employment, business contracts, and the broad economic activity that these investments stimulate. The 2024 California Statewide National Security Economic Impacts Study found that national security activity produced $196.7B in economic activity across the state in 2023, amounting to 5.1% of statewide economic activity. This funding included $110B in direct activity by agencies and contractors, $17.9B in supply chain activities, and an estimated $68.9B in induced economic activity that was spurred by this additional money in the economy.

Major aerospace companies have consistently received the bulk of Department of Defense contracts awarded in California.

In FY23, Northrop Grumman was the largest recipient ($3.8B), followed by DoD-supporting healthcare company Centene Corp ($3.2B), Lockheed Martin ($2.4B), Boeing ($2.1B), and the RTX Corporation ($1.8B). The majority of these top contractors operate in aviation, unmanned aerial systems (UAS), spaceflight, and missile systems, demonstrating the continued success of military aerospace in California. These contractors contribute to the $6.8B in economic output created by national security-related aerospace manufacturing in 2023, providing many jobs and opportunities for Californians across the state.

The Southern California region, in particular, has been the dominant recipient of Defense Department funding over the past decade. In FY2023, Los Angeles County led the Southern California region with $12.0B in defense contracts, followed ver Los Angeles | Flickr

by San Diego ($10.9B), Orange County ($2.0B), Ventura ($1.5B), San Bernardino ($993.1M), Kern ($918.8M) and Santa Barbara ($754.2M). Ten years prior, Navy-related spending propelled San Diego County to the top spot ($16.3B), with LA County receiving $10.1B in FY2013, and the other Southern California counties following a similar pattern.

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Continuing the Legacy: Regional Aviation and New Defense Entrants Since the end of the Cold War, the Southern California military aerospace sector has narrowed its operations towards more aviation-supporting sectors, such as RDT&E and aircraft maintenance.

Northrop Grumman is one of the largest and most successful aerospace companies operating in the Southern California region. Founded in Hawthorne in 1939, the company supported America’s aviation manufacturing industry in World War II and throughout the Cold War, specializing in fighter jets, bombers, and military space systems. Following the post-Cold War drawdown, Northrop Grumman relocated its headquarters from Los Angeles to Washington D.C. in 2011, becoming the last of Southern California’s major aerospace firms to leave the state. Despite this move, Northrop retains a strong presence in the state and maintains facilities in six cities in the Greater LA region: Azusa, Northridge, Palmdale, LA’s South Bay, Ventura, and Woodland Hills. The most significant of these operations is at Northrop’s Antelope Valley factory, based at US Air Force Plant 42. This facility employs more than 7,000 people in the Palmdale area, and is host to operations in support of the F-35 Lightning II stealth strike jet (partial production), the Global Hawk and Triton unmanned aerial vehicle family (support), the B-2 Spirit stealth bomber (maintenance), and the upcoming B-21 Raider next-generation stealth bomber (development and testing). Northrop also works with local colleges through the Aeronautics Systems Training for Advanced Refinement (ASTAR) academy at Plant 42, as well as providing training and partnerships with Antelope Valley College and local high schools.

Over the past decade, Northrop Grumman has enjoyed notable success in the defense industry, much of which benefits its operations in Southern California. In 2015, it was awarded a $21.4B engineering and manufacturing contract for the B-21 Raider program, which will be developed and tested out of its Palmdale facility at Plant 42. The program has proceeded with great success after a successful first flight in November 2023 and subsequent flight tests. The Air Force awarded Northrop a second low-rate production contract in late 2024 in anticipation of a full 100-aircraft fleet by the mid2030s. Additionally, Northrop won a $7B contract in May 2023 for continued maintenance and repair of the B-2 bomber fleet out of its Palmdale facility through 2029, reflecting the enduring strength of its Southern California operations.

Moreover, Poland announced in January 2025 the purchase of $745M of Northrop Grumman’s AARGM-ER anti-radiation

C17 Globemaster III over March Air Reserve Base

Photo credit: Chad McElroy ’26

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Aerospace Facilities in Southern California

Map by Quinten Carney ’26

missile systems, a system designed out of Northrop’s Northridge facility. While Northrop no longer conducts large-scale manufacturing operations as it had during the Cold War, RDT&E and maintenance operations mean that the company will continue to prosper even in peacetime. This focus on RDT&E can also be found among the other legacy aviation operations that have chosen to stay in the region.

Lockheed Martin, once a signature California military contractor, continues to play a noteworthy role in the Southern California aerospace industry. Originally called The Lockheed Corporation, the Burbank-based company produced some of America’s most successful aircraft, such as America’s mainline submarine-launched ballistic missile systems during World War II and beyond. While the company relocated most manufacturing operations out of the state after merging with Martin Marietta in 1994, it most prominently maintains its secretive “Skunk Works” research, development, and testing facility in Palmdale. The Skunk Works facility has been home to many legendary feats in aviation history, such as the fastest acknowledged crewed air-breathing aircraft (SR-71) and the first operational stealth aircraft (F-117 Nighthawk). It continues to support many classified military developments from its facilities within the Air Force’s Plant 42. In addition to its Palmdale facility, Lockheed Martin’s Santa Barbara Focalplane designs infrared sensor platforms in support of aviation and space-based systems.

Boeing’s influence in the Southern California aerospace industry has faded over time. It closed its 717 civilian jetliner production line in 2005, making it the last major commercial airline production facility to close in Southern California.

Eight years later, Boeing announced the closure of its C-17 Globemaster III military cargo jet production line and the ultimate closure of its Long Beach facility in 2015, marking the end of large aircraft production in the region. While the company still maintains aircraft maintenance facilities in Victorville, its other Southern California facilities specialize in space and space-supporting systems.

While larger aerospace contracts are shifting focus in the region, new private ventures are beginning to make their presence known in the local and national defense industries. Anduril Industries, founded in 2017 by Palmer Luckey and backed by prominent Silicon Valley investor Peter Thiel, is headquartered in the city of Costa Mesa. Anduril aims to develop cuttingedge technologies faster and cheaper than traditional contractors through the integration of AI and machine learning

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into next-generation military products such as drones, counter-UAS systems, advanced sensors, and general networking systems. Anduril began to win Defense Department contracts in 2019, beginning with an AI-enabled base surveillance system for the US Marines, a $25M contract for border surveillance towers for the Department of Homeland Security, and the purchase of multiple reconnaissance and attack drone systems that have been supplied to Ukraine since 2023.

Most notably, Anduril and San Diego-based General Atomics won a contract for the first iteration of the Air Force’s new Collaborative Combat Aircraft (CCA) initiative, defeating traditional defense industry giants Lockheed Martin, Northrop Grumman, and Boeing for the first increment of the program. The CCA initiative aims to field an AI-powered drone “wingman” for the Air Force’s Next Generation Air Dominance program, a family of systems that the USAF requested $2.75B for in their FY2025 budget request. Anduril’s growing success underscores a disruptive shift in the defense industry toward new entrants rather than traditional “prime” contractors who have dominated DoD contracts over the past three decades. While giants such as Northrop Grumman and Lockheed Martin are likely to continue to attract billions of dollars in Defense Department contracts, Anduril’s success suggests that the Greater LA region will remain a thriving home for the military aerospace industry for years to come. ♦

MQ-9 Reaper Drone landing at March Air Reserve Base

Photo credit: Chad McElroy ’26

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Bibliography “A New Military-Industrial Complex Arises,” February 10, 2025. https://scheerpost.com/2025/02/10/a-new-military-industrial-complex-arises/.

“Anduril.” Accessed March 28, 2025. https://www.anduril.com/mission/.

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Carey, Bill. “GAO: Air Force Was ‘Reasonable’ in Awarding B-21 Contract | AIN.” Aviation International News. Accessed March 28, 2025. https://www.ainonline.com/aviation-news/defense/2016-11-06/gao-air-force-was-reasonable-awarding-b-21-contract.

Cooper, Christine, Shannon Sedgwick, and Wesley DeWitt. “AN INDUSTRY CLUSTER STUDY,” n.d.

“Defense Spending: Key to California’s Growth on JSTOR.” Accessed March 28, 2025. https://www.jstor.org/stable/445307?seq=1.

Easley, Mikayla. “Anduril, General Atomics Move into next Phase of Air Force CCA Drone Program.” DefenseScoop (blog), April 24, 2024. https://defensescoop.com/2024/04/24/anduril-general-atomics-air-force-cca-program/.

Głowacki, Bartosz, and Aaron Mehta. “Poland Adds Long-Range Strike to Its F-35 Fleet with AARGM-ER Missiles.”

Breaking Defense, January 29, 2025. https://breakingdefense.com/2025/01/poland-adds-long-range-strike-toits-f-35-fleet-with-aargm-er-missiles/.

Hersch, Matthew H. “Equitable Growth and Southern California’s Aerospace Industry,” n.d.

Lockheed Martin. “Santa Barbara, CA.” Accessed March 28, 2025. https://www.lockheedmartin.com/en-us/who-we-are/ business-areas/missiles-and-fire-control/santa-barbara.html.

Lockheed Martin. “The Skunk Works® Legacy.” Accessed March 28, 2025. https://www.lockheedmartin.com/en-us/whowe-are/business-areas/aeronautics/skunkworks/skunk-works-origin-story.html.

Los Angeles Times. “Lockheed’s Long Stay in Valley May Be Ending,” August 30, 1994. https://www.latimes.com/archives/ la-xpm-1994-08-30-mn-32901-story.html.

Miller, Kenneth P., ‘Economy’, Texas vs. California: A History of Their Struggle for the Future of America ‘(New York, 2020; online edn, Oxford Academic, 20 Aug. 2020), https://doi-org.ccl.idm.oclc.org/10.1093/ oso/9780190077365.003.0004, accessed 1 Mar. 2025.

Northrop Grumman. “Northrop Grumman Careers in California.” Accessed March 28, 2025. https://www.northropgrumman.com/careers/https:www.northropgrumman.com/careers/northrop-grumman-in-california.

“Northrop Grumman to Move Corporate Office to Washington, D.C. Region - Northrop Grumman.” Accessed March 28, 2025. https://investor.northropgrumman.com/news-releases/news-release-details/northrop-grumman-move-corporate-office-washington-dc-region.

Pae, Peter. “Boeing Is Closing an Era in Aviation.” Los Angeles Times, January 15, 2005. https://www.latimes.com/archives/la-xpm-2005-jan-15-fi-boeing15-story.html.

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Pentagon, W. J. Hennigan, “Northrop Grumman Moving Headquarters from L.A. to Washington, D.C., Area.” Los Angeles Times, January 5, 2010. https://www.latimes.com/archives/la-xpm-2010-jan-05-la-fi-northrop5-2010jan05-story.html.

Prabhu, Abhinaya. “Anduril: Oculus Founder’s Defense Tech Unicorn Backed by Peter Thiel Nabs $1.5B Funding for Major Manufacturing Expansion — TFN.” Tech Funding News (blog), August 14, 2024. https://techfundingnews.com/ peter-thiel-backed-oculus-founders-defence-tech-unicorn-anduril-raises-1-5b-for-new-manufacturing-facility/.

Schoeni, Robert F., Michael Dardia, Kevin F. McCarthy, and Georges Vernez. “Life After Cutbacks: Tracking California’s Aerospace Workers.” RAND Corporation, January 1, 1996. https://www.rand.org/pubs/research_briefs/RB7510. html.

Scully, Janene. “Falcon Rocket on Starlink Satellite Mission Launches at Twilight From Vandenberg | Local News.” Noozhawk, June 19, 2024. http://www.noozhawk.com/falcon-rocket-on-starlink-satellite-mission-launches-at-twilight-from-vandenberg-afb/.

Shah, Deepa. “Greater Los Angeles Aerospace & Defense Report,” CBRE Research, 2024. https://www.cbre.com/insights/ reports/greater-los-angeles-aerospace-defense-report-mid-year-2024.

Tirpak, John. “Northrop Reveals Another B-21 Contract, in Talks with USAF About Faster Production.” Air & Space Forces Magazine, January 31, 2025. https://www.airandspaceforces.com/northrop-another-b-21-contract-faster-production/.

“U.S. Air Force Collaborative Combat Aircraft (CCA).” Legislation. Accessed March 28, 2025. https://www.congress.gov/ crs-product/IF12740.

U.S. Department of Defense. “DOD Releases Report on Defense Spending by State in Fiscal Year 2023.” Accessed March 28, 2025. https://www.defense.gov/News/Releases/Release/Article/3935678/dod-releases-report-on-defensespending-by-state-in-fiscal-year-2023/.

Waldie, D.J. “End of an Era: Boeing Announces Closure of Last Aircraft Manufacturing Plant in Southern California.”

Accessed March 28, 2025. https://laist.com/shows/airtalk/end-of-an-era-boeing-announces-closure-of-last-aircraft-manufacturing-plant-in-southern-california.

Welk, Hannah Madans. “Aerospace: Rocket Engines, Fighter Jets and Drones Are Vital to the Valley Economy.” Inside The Valley | Los Angeles Business Journal (blog), January 2, 2023. https://valley.labusinessjournal.com/special-report/aerospace-rocket-engines-fighter-jets-and-drones-are-vital-to-the-valley-economy/.

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SpaceX SAOCOM-1A mission launch over Los Angeles , October 8, 2018 | Flickr

SoCal in the Age of Commercial Space

by Chad McElroy ’26

C

alifornia has long been a global leader in the fields of space exploration, manufacturing, and scientific research. Home to three NASA Research centers, two out of the top three aerospace engineering universities in the world, and more aerospace engineers than any other state, California remains an indispensable contributor to America’s spaceflight and aerospace endeavors. It hosts 25% of the country’s aerospace market and is home to nearly one-third of all American space systems companies.

Southern California has been recognized as an aviation powerhouse for most of its post-WW II history and continues to play a significant role in some of America’s greatest spaceflight initiatives. Historically, the region has played a prominent role in many of America’s civil and military space programs. Some of America’s first space launches took off from Vandenberg Air Force Base (now known as Vandenberg Space Force Base); the Apollo spacecraft and Saturn rockets were built in the region; and every Space Shuttle was constructed, tested, and initially landed at Edwards Air Force Base in Palmdale. NASA’s Jet Propulsion Laboratory in Pasadena has designed some of NASA’s most prominent robotic exploration missions, such as the Voyager spacecraft, as well as every major Mars rover. Today, multiple contractors across Los Angeles County and San Bernardino County contribute everything from insulation to welding in support of NASA’s Artemis moon program. While its footprint has certainly decreased from its apex during the Cold War, the SoCal space industry remains a key player in America’s spaceflight landscape.

Southern California is pivoting from a legacy aerospace manufacturing hub into a hotspot for the burgeoning commercial space industry. This transition can best be seen through relative employment changes in the greater aerospace industry.

The Los Angeles County Economic Development Corporation conducted a study on the aerospace industry in 2016 and found that employment has been shifting towards the development and production of spacecraft and missile technology.

From 2004 to 2014, employment in general guided missile and space vehicle (GM/SV) production rose from 16% to 21.5% of the industry total, and GM/SV parts production spiked from 6.6% to 35.9%. Notably, this increase has been due to RoseInstitute.org

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smaller businesses and startups rather than larger corporations or conglomerates. In 2014, firms of only 1-4 employees accounted for 20.7% of firms in the guided missile and space-related vehicle sector, up from 10% in 2004. Firms of 5-19 workers accounted for another 27.5%. Rather than signifying an end to Southern California’s aerospace industry, this shift in the industry’s composition may signify a reorientation towards the new commercial space industry in response to the shrinking influence of aviation. Furthermore, the growing prevalence of smaller businesses leading this charge is a positive sign for the region’s future, as new space startups are bound to bring new attention, new breakthroughs, and new jobs.

Spaceflight Excellence: Local Players and New Developments in SoCal’s Space Industry SpaceX has been the crown jewel of Southern California’s space industry for the past decade, and its influence does not show any signs of slowing. The company has operated a 1M square foot headquarters facility in Hawthorne since 2008, which manufactures its flagship Falcon 9 reusable rocket, Crew and Cargo Dragon spacecraft, and the initial Raptorseries rocket engines for its next-generation Starship and Super Heavy boosters. Most recently valued at $350B, SpaceX maintains a near-monopoly position in the American space launch, human spaceflight, and satellite internet industries.

While its new Starship rockets launch out of the south Texas city of Starbase, SpaceX’s flagship Falcon 9 rocket routinely launches Starlink satellites and commercial payloads from Vandenberg Space Force Base, launching a record 46 times from the Lompoc launch site in 2024 –almost one launch every week. In support of its increasing cadence, SpaceX expanded its operations at the Space Force base from 60 people to nearly 400 in recent years. It also plans to expand its rocket recovery facility in Long Beach from six acres to 15, reflecting California's continuing importance to the company.

While SpaceX has seen unparalleled success from its headquarters in Hawthorne, recent moves by its CEO Elon Musk hint at a potential restructuring. In July of 2024, Musk announced that the company would officially move its headquarters from Hawthorne to its Starbase, Texas facility in response to California legislation regarding gender identity and schooling, a move that appeared to threaten local jobs and the broader Southern California aerospace industry. However, much of SpaceX’s core manufacturing and operations continue to operate out of Hawthorne and in the short term the move appears to be somewhat symbolic in nature.

Across the board, the SpaceX success cannot be overstated, as the company has been a major force in igniting this new age

SpaceX headquarters in Hawthorne | SpaceX

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of commercial, governmental, and civil spaceflight. In addition, many other prominent or nascent companies continue to solidify Southern California’s position as a leader in the commercial space industry.

While its role in the regional aviation industry may have faded, Boeing’s Space businesses in Southern California remain strong. Boeing operates a 1M square foot satellite and spacecraft manufacturing facility in El Segundo, a result of acquiring Hughes Electronics’ space business in 2000. One of Boeing El Segundo’s flagship products has been the X-37B, an unmanned reusable mini-space shuttle operated by the Space Force. The shuttle, currently in space on its seventh mission in a novel high Earth orbit, conducts classified experiments and autonomous operations in support of research and orbital warfighting. Boeing’s El Segundo facility also specializes in large spacecraft manufacturing for commercial and military users. In 2024, the company won a $439M contract from the Space Force to complete the newest of its twelve-satellite constellation of WGS tactical communications satellites. The El Segundo facility also produces the O3b mPOWER series of broadcast satellites for the Luxembourg-based SES communications company, with the most recent launch of these spacecraft conducted in December of 2024. Boeing also has made moves to diversify its space operations in the Greater LA region. In 2018, it acquired El Segundo-based Millennium Space Systems, a company that manufactures small satellites for the Space Force. Millennium has secured multiple Space Force contracts in recent years, providing Boeing with a new, innovative arm in the national security space industry.

While Boeing’s El Segundo operations remain successful, the broader Boeing Space business is facing significant headwinds.

Repeated mishaps as part of Boeing’s Starliner crewed spaceflight program have cost the company billions of dollars, and the company reportedly may sell off this portion of its business. The Starliner program is, however, unrelated to Boeing operations in El Segundo. Difficulties in matching the success of SpaceX in the launch industry are reportedly motivating Boeing to divest from the United Launch Alliance, a joint venture with Lockheed Martin to operate the Vulcan medium-lift rocket from Cape Canaveral and Vandenberg Space Force Base. Furthermore, Boeing’s Space Launch System, which is the main rocket for sending humans to the moon as part of NASA’s Artemis program, is in jeopardy of being cut under the new Trump administration, a move that may harm Boeing’s overall space portfolio.

Aerojet Rocketdyne is another company with a strong legacy and continuing presence in the Southern California region. Originally a spin-off of North American Aviation, the then-named Rocketdyne corporation designed, tested, and manufactured nearly every liquid-fueled rocket engine for the majority of the US space program. This includes every propulsion system for the Apollo program’s Saturn rockets, as well as the Space Shuttle main engines until 2002 – from its headquarters and manufacturing facility in Canoga Park. Now merged with Aerojet and recently acquired by defense conglomerate L3Harris for $4.7B, Aerojet Rocketdyne continues to specialize in advanced rocket engine and missile propulsion systems for both civil programs and military weaponry. Today, Aerojet Rocketdyne operates a regional headquarters in El Segundo and a major propulsion manufacturing facility in Chatsworth. At its Chatsworth facility in the San Fernando Valley, Aerojet Rocketdyne is repurposing the former Space Shuttle Main Engines for use in Boeing’s Space Launch System and NASA’s Artemis Program. The company contributed to almost all major engine systems that flew on NASA’s successful Artemis 1 mission. Within the military sector, Aerojet Rocketdyne produces engines for missile defense systems like THAAD, artillery such as GMLRS, hypersonic ramjets for NASA, and will soon produce rocket motors for America’s Sentinel next-generation intercontinental ballistic missile. Aerojet Rocketdyne’s contributions to both civil and military space programs position it to remain as a strong element of Southern California’s spaceflight industry.

Rocket Lab is a relatively new entrant into the space industry, yet it has cemented itself as the second-most commercially successful company in the sector. Headquartered in Long Beach, the company specializes in small satellite launch services, in-house small and medium satellite manufacturing, spaceflight software, and a vast array of spacecraft-related components. The company manufactures its rockets in Long Beach and notably launches its flagship Electron small-lift rocket and HASTE hypersonic testbed primarily out of its launch pad in Mahia, New Zealand, and the NASA facility in Wallops Island, Virginia. Following its first successful launch in 2017, the company has delivered over 200 payloads to orbit for customers ranging from weather satellites for NASA, experiments for the National Reconnaissance Office, earth observation systems for the company Blacksky, and “internet-of-things” constellations for Kinéis.

Rocket Lab has gained an advantage in the industry by embracing vertical integration and diversification. Rather than relying on external manufacturers to build its satellites and engines, Rocket Lab designs, manufactures, and tests four separate types of spacecraft buses for commercial, scientific, and military customers in-house at its 11,000-square-foot manufacturing complex in Long Beach. In 2022, the company acquired a space-grade solar panel manufacturing company, RoseInstitute.org

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a move that made it eligible for federal funding as part of the CHIPS and Science Act in June of 2024. Rocket Lab has also made headway into the niche national security and hypersonics testing market, an area traditionally unexplored by commercial spaceflight companies. Following at least two acknowledged launches, Rocket Lab’s Hypersonics Accelerator Suborbital Test Electron (HASTE) program recently won a five-year launch contract as part of a $1.45B hypersonic technology development program led by the DoD’s Test Resource Management Center. These initiatives combine to make Rocket Lab a powerful force in the Southern Californian region and the broader American commercial space industry.

Rocket Lab is not the only new space company catering to the defense industry. ABL Space Systems, founded in El Segundo in 2017, was recently rebranded as Long Wall in an effort to pivot towards the missile defense and hypersonic flight testing sectors. While ABL was originally seen as an emerging contender in the launch industry, two failed launch attempts and difficulties securing investor funding forced the company to leave the launch market and enter the defense industry. ABL’s example underscores the interconnectedness of the defense and space industries, as rockets that can cater to commercial needs can often be easily adapted for military needs. ABL’s pivot also highlights an important reality in the space industry: Giants like SpaceX and Rocket Lab have cemented their places after years of successes and government support, while smaller companies must fight to establish themselves in a growing yet still-volatile industry.

LA County’s Space Beach Long Beach, colloquially known as Space Beach by local politicians and industry leaders, has become home to a vibrant commercial space startup ecosystem, one that has seen many successes and some setbacks in recent years.

Virgin Orbit, a spin-off of British billionaire Richard Branson’s space tourism company Virgin Galactic, was founded in 2017 and headquartered in Long Beach. The company sought to specialize in air-launched small-lift rockets and launched six operational missions and two demonstration flights between 2020 and 2023. The company faced significant difficulties, however, in maintaining funding due to its low launch cadence. After a failed launch from the United Kingdom, it filed for bankruptcy and permanently ceased operations in May of 2023. Ironically, Virgin Orbit’s Long Beach headquarters would

Falcon9 launch on its second stage burn captured from Los Angeles | Twitter@jgrffi5

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go on to become an expanded rocket engine manufacturing plant for Rocket Lab, reflecting the ever-evolving nature of the space industry in the region.

Relativity Space is another new commercial space entrant in the region. Founded in 2016, the company aims to utilize additive manufacturing and 3D printing to revolutionize the medium-launch market. It was the first to build and launch the world’s first primarily 3D-printed rocket in 2022. In an effort to expand operations, Relativity purchased Boeing’s former 1M square foot C-17 manufacturing plant in Long Beach in 2021, aiming to transform the plant into a “Factory of the Future” 3D printing and manufacturing facility for its Terran-series of rockets. Currently, Relativity is developing the Terran-R reusable medium-lift rocket in order to compete with SpaceX and other companies in the increasingly crowded commercial and military space launch markets.

The growing Southern California space industry is not limited to the commercial space launch market. Vast Space, founded in 2021, aims to build the next generation of crewed space stations in Low Earth Orbit, and is in the process of testing its Haven-1 crew module for launch no earlier than 2026. In 2023 the company established its 115,000-square-foot headquarters in Long Beach and aims to expand to nearly 700 employees by the end of 2027. Vast’s operations reflect the increasing diversity of the commercial industry that can rely on the deep workforce base for expertise across the aerospace sector.

Space Beach is also attracting out-of-state space industry startups. True Anomaly, a space and defense startup headquartered in Colorado, announced in February 2025 that it will be opening a 90,000-square-foot facility in Long Beach dedicated to designing and manufacturing military-related space systems. The company aims to establish operations closer to the Space Force’s Space Systems Command (SSC), the service’s acquisitions division headquartered out of Los Angeles Space Force Base. True Anomaly’s move illustrates that despite external factors such as California’s high costs of business, the Greater LA region provides unique opportunities for the industry that make it a destination for aerospace.

Space Starts Here – Vandenberg Space Force Base and the Revival of America’s Western Launch Range Vandenberg Space Force Base (VSFB), located in the city of Lompoc, Santa Barbara County, has grown in both regional and national importance due to its unique space launch-supporting capabilities. Originally established by the US Army as Camp Cooke in 1941, it became the prime launch facility on America’s Western Launch Range during the Cold War, supporting both military and civil space initiatives from 1957. Vandenberg was home to multiple space industry “firsts,” such as the first polar Earth-orbiting satellite in 1959 and the launch of the first GPS satellite in 1978 by the Air Force. Following a storied Air Force history, it was renamed Vandenberg Space Force Base in 2021, and its units were transferred to the new Space Force Space Launch Delta 30 (SLD-30).The key advantage of Vandenberg is its position on California’s west coast.

Rockets can launch on trajectories that travel west, south-west, directly south, and marginally south-east without flying over populated areas. This dramatically simplifies operations seeking to send spacecraft into special orbits that circle the Earth’s poles or sun-synchronous orbits, which are trajectories that allow a satellite to travel over a given part of the Earth at roughly the same local time of day. The former capability is beneficial for Earth science research, supporting missions such as NASA and the French space agency’s Surface Water and Ocean Topography (SWOT) mission, which launched in December of 2022. The latter capability is highly sought after by Earth observation satellites, both for civilian purposes and for military reconnaissance, as it allows day-to-changes to be easily observed and tracked. As such, Vandenberg was host to many of America’s first military reconnaissance satellite programs such as Corona, Gambit, and Hexagon beginning in the 1960s. Cape Canaveral Space Force Base in Florida, home to NASA’s legendary Kennedy Space Center, can support southern launches as well. These launches, however, can fly over Caribbean nations like the Bahamas, Cuba, and Puerto Rico, where failures could threaten property and lives downrange. Vandenberg’s western orientation additionally makes it an ideal missile testing facility. Today, the Air Force frequently uses Vandenberg to test unarmed Minuteman III ICBMs on trajectories towards the Kwajalein Atoll in the central Pacific, with the most recent test occurring on February 19, 2025.

Vandenberg additionally serves as a test range for more exotic systems, such as the Ground-Based Midcourse Defense anti-ballistic missile system, as well as Northrop Grumman’s Minotaur rocket family, an orbital/suborbital launch system using repurposed ICBM components.

After experiencing a lull in military usage following the end of the Cold War, Vandenberg Space Force Base has rebounded to become the second-most popular spaceport in the world. In 2024, it hosted 51 rocket and missile launches, the highest number of launches at the base since 1974. This record number was led by SpaceX, which launched its Falcon 9 rocket RoseInstitute.org

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Launch of the NASA DART mission from Vandenberg on November 23, 2021 | Michael Peterson, DVIDSHUB

46 times from its leased launch pad at Space Launch Complex 4E (SLC-4E). Most of those launches were in support of the Starlink satellite internet constellation.

Vandenberg has seen a year-over-year increase in its contribution to the global space launch industry since 2021.

According to the UN Office for Outer Space Affairs Online Index of Objects Launched into Outer Space, a total of 954 space objects were launched from Vandenberg in 2024, amounting to 37% of all objects launched into space across the globe that year. This represents a steady increase since 2021 (6%), 2022 (19%), and 2023 (33%). Last year’s launch total represents a significant increase from one decade prior, which saw only four objects launched from Vandenberg in 2014, a mere 2% of the total that year.

Vandenberg’s resurrection has brought with it new challenges, as well as some controversy. Sonic booms associated with SpaceX rocket launches and landings have become a frequent occurrence in local communities, with disturbances being heard along more than 100 miles of California coastline. In October of 2024, California’s Coastal Commission voted down an Air Force Department-sponsored proposal to raise the number of total rocket launches from VSFB from 36 to 50 annually, with concerns remaining around the environmental impact of those sonic booms. The Coastal Commission cannot legally limit the number of launches from Vandenberg – VSFB is federal rather than state land -- and the Space Force ignored the launch limit. – Notably, the Commission cited concerns about SpaceX CEO Elon Musk’s political support for then-candidate Donald Trump in the 2024 election in the context of denying the proposal to increase the number of launches. SpaceX filed a lawsuit against the Coastal Commission in late 2024 alleging political bias, a suit which is ongoing as of March 2025. Despite the recent controversy, the Coastal Commission would approve that increase in launches later in 2024, and the Air Force is in the process of conducting local environmental consultations related to raising launches to 100 annually.

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Vandenberg’s increased importance has inspired regional investment and a push to revitalize California’s Central Coast.

In 2018, the Hourglass Project was proposed to the Central Coast Coalition of Chambers calling for the alignment of local chambers of commerce and regional businesses in support of the Central Coast region of San Luis Obispo County and Santa Barbara County. Following an upswell in support, the initiative transformed into the Regional Economic Action Coalition (REACH) in 2019 with a narrowed focus on supporting increased federal and state investment into Vandenberg Space Force Base, attracting new commercial operators, and supporting increased job creation in the surrounding region.

Today, the REACH coalition is led by the city of Santa Barbara, the California Governor’s Office of Business and Economic Development (GO-Biz), Cal Poly SLO, Space Force SLD-30, and Deloitte, and has published reports on increasing Vandenberg’s commercial competitiveness (VSFB Commercial Space Master Plan) as a spaceport as well as a 10-year economic action plan for the Central Coast (REACH 2030). REACH has already achieved successes related to initiatives outlined in these action plans. In 2022, the California Governor’s office created a Space Industry Task Force, which is focused on attracting new aerospace businesses, developing California’s aerospace industry workforce, and offering financial incentives to existing businesses, including the more than $200M in tax credits delivered to aerospace companies via GO-Biz’s CalCompetes program. Additionally, REACH’s mobilization helped Vandenberg secure $80M in federal funding for infrastructure improvements at the base, ensuring that the spaceport will be ready to match its increased usage in the coming decade.

Southern California is in the midst of a transformation from specializing in traditional aviation activities to incubating the next generation of commercial spaceflight innovators. Defense-related aviation has not fully disappeared from the region.

Well-known conglomerates like Northrop Grumman and Lockheed Martin continue to achieve success in the region, and new disruptors like Anduril seek to usher in a new era of defense industry competition. The commercial space industry has found fertile ground, as companies such as SpaceX, Rocket Lab, and many others have come to call the Greater LA region home. Vandenberg Space Force Base has reasserted itself as the second busiest spaceport in the world, a title that comes with new attention, new investment, and some challenges for local communities. ♦

SpaceX Falcon 9 rocket launch from SLC-4E at Vandenberg on January 19, 2023 | SpaceX

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Foust, Jeff. “Rocket Lab Wins Government Support to Expand Solar Cell Production.” SpaceNews, June 11, 2024. https:// spacenews.com/rocket-lab-wins-government-support-to-expand-solar-cell-production/.

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Find These Articles at RoseInstitute/InlandEmpireOutlook.org 2024 Fall • Video Voter Guide • Implementing Grants Pass v Johnson • CA Sales Tax Increases on the 2024 November Ballot • San Bernardino County Fair Share 2024 Spring • Freight Gateway • ONT - Cargo Hub • IE Warehouses • Inland Empire Primary Races 2023 Fall • San Bernardino’s Exit from Municipal Bankruptcy • Ghost Guns in California • Ontario Airport Roars Back 2023 Spring • California’s Push to Electric Vehicles • Realignment, Recidivism, and Crime • Opioid Harm Reduction 2023 Special Report on Housing • Underproduction: California’s Housing Crisis • Inclusionary Housing Ordinances and Housing Production • Variable Attitudes on Housing Market Regulations 2022 Fall • Video Voter Guide • San Bernardino County Secession Measure • COVID-19, School Closure and Learning Loss • New Rules for Concealed Carry 2022 Spring • Covid Recovery Spending • Covid, Maternal Employment, and AB131 • Inclusionary Housing Ordinances and Housing Production • Variable Attitudes on Housing Market Regulations 2021 Fall • A First Look at IE Census Data • CA Recall History • 2021 Recall Results • California & New York Survey 2020 Fall • Video Voter • Reapportionment in the Supreme Court • Population and Reapportionment • Counting the Inland Empire • Counting the Homeless

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Find These Articles at RoseInstitute/InlandEmpireOutlook.org

2019 Fall • Narrowing the Health Gap • SB535: Greenhouse Gas Reduction Fund • Sanctuary Cities 2019 Spring • IE Housing Market Snapshot • Choking California’s Housing Supply • SB 827: Down But Maybe Not Out • Rent Control 2018 Fall • Video Voter Series: A Guide to California Ballot Measures • Time Served in State Prisons for Serious Offenses: 1981-2009 • Proposition 64 in SoCal • IE Job Market Snapshot 2018 Spring • Amazon in the Inland Empire • Vergara v. California: Educational Equality in CA • Poverty and Special Education Placement • California’s $15 Minimum Wage 2017 Fall • Riverside County’s New CEO Has Big Plans • Things Are Looking Up in the IE • Legal Challenges Facing Nonclassroom-based Charters in CA 2017 Spring • California’s Many and Varied Attacks • A Coordinated Response: Law Enforcement Response to the San Bernardino Attack • Emergency Medical Response • Legislative Responses to Terrorism: California’s History 2016 Fall • A Guide to California Ballot Measures • Local Control Funding Formula • Employment in the Inland Empire • Prop 58 and Bilingual Education • Robust Renewables 2016 Spring • Timeline on ONT • Conversation with the OIAA Board • Challenges Remain • Logistics

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Inl and Empire Outlook

Authors: Quinten Carney ’26, Chad McElroy ’26, and Deborah Aguirre ’28

EDITORIAL STAFF

Kenneth P. Miller, JD, PhD Director

Bipasa Nadon, JD Assistant Director

Marionette S. Moore Administrative Coordinator

STUDENT AUTHORS

Photo credit: Chad McElroy ’26

About the Rose Institute The Rose Institute of State and Local Government was founded at Claremont McKenna College in 1973. Its mission is to enhance the education of students at CMC, to produce high quality research, and to promote public understanding of issues of state and local government, politics, and policy, with an emphasis on California. The Institute collects demographic, economic, and political and public opinion data and produces objective, non-partisan analyses that inform policymaking throughout the state. It also provides a civil forum for leaders across the political spectrum to discuss and debate public policy issues. The Institute is led by expert faculty and staff who collaborate with a team of approximately 30 students from the Claremont Colleges on all aspects of its research program.

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Quinten Carney ’26 Chad McElroy ’26 Deborah Aguirre ’28

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