GREAT EXPECTATIONS by DAVID WINSTON & MYRA MILLER
As Donald Trump reaches the six month mark of serious concerns about the state of the economy. his presidency, the media predictably is focused almost Similarly, in 1992, despite the Clinton campaign’s solely on the short term. An assessment at six months famous “it’s the economy, stupid” message, President is inevitable politically. But Republicans need to look Clinton spent his first two years focused on a series of through a different lens and play a smarter long game if they secondary issues including a failed health care plan and, are going to be successful legislatively and in the coming as a result, lost the House decisively in 1994. After the mid-term elections. For Republicans, the 2018 mid- 1980 election, when jobs and the economy were the terms present a rare and not easily attainable opportunity central issues, President Reagan did move on economic to win a consolidating issues and hoped to election. win the House in 1982. What do we mean by Instead, unemployment a consolidating election hit 10%, and the GOP and why is it so difficult lost 26 seats. to achieve? One of the While the 2016 toughest challenges for election saw Republicans a majority party after make historic inroads a presidential win is to into various voter repeat its success in the groups, the opportunity next election by retaining can be quickly lost if the support of the voter voters are disappointed groups that made up its in the results of a winning coalition. After government with GOP an election, voters have control of Congress and certain expectations the presidency. To avoid based on the presidential that outcome and win in and congressional 2018, Republicans must agendas defined by enact a policy agenda candidates and parties that connects with the While the 2016 election saw in the election. When voters who made up the Republicans make historic inroads it comes to winning a 2016 majority coalition. consolidating election, First, they must build into various voter groups, the performance tops support among key opportunity can be quickly lost politics. It’s all about groups that voted for if voters are disappointed in the keeping promises by Trump after historically getting the job done or, not voting for results of a government with at a minimum, be seen as Republicans, including GOP control. moving on policies that union households, low meet voter expectations. and middle-income When voters are voters, and those with disappointed in progress, the party in power can pay a less than a college degree. Second, Republicans must steep price. expand support among coalition groups crucial in a For example, after President Obama’s win in 2008, midterm coalition -- independents, women, young voters, books were written about the death of the Republican and Hispanics. While the partisan mix of Senate races in Party and the permanent Democratic majority. Two 2018 should be favorable to Republicans, only a carefully years later, the Democratic coalition was gone, with crafted strategy that addresses voter expectations will Republicans building a mid-term coalition that stayed in deliver majorities in both houses. place in 2014 thanks, in large part, to Obama’s decision The 2016 election presented a uniquely volatile to focus on health care when the electorate still had environment, with both party frontrunners having 26
RIPON FORUM June 2017