Distributed renewable energies for off grid communities empowering a sustainable competitive and sec

Distributed Renewable Energies for Off-Grid Communities: Empowering a Sustainable, Competitive, and Secure Twenty-First Century 2nd Edition Nasir El Bassam

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EmpoweringaSustainable,Competitive, andSecureTwenty-FirstCentury

SecondEdition

Editor NASIRELBASSAM

Contributors

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Notices

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Therenewableenergypioneer, founderanddirectoremeritusofNordicFolkecenter, Denmark,co-authorofthe firstedition

Citations

Thehumanbeinghasthreewaystolearn: first,byreflection,whichisthenoblest; second,byimitation,whichistheeasiest;andthird,byexperience,whichisthe bitterest.

Confucius

Off-gridrenewableenergysystemshavetransformedourabilitytodeliversecure, affordableelectricitytoruralcommunitiesallovertheworld,andareplayinga vitalroleinbreakingacycleofenergypovertythathasheldbacksocio-economic progressforhundredsofmillionsofpeople.

AdnanAmin,Director-General,InternationalRenewableEnergyAgency Comingtogetherisabeginning,keepingtogetherisprogress,andworking togetherissuccess.

HenryFord

Foreword

Sincethe firstpublicationofthebookin2013,muchhaschangedregarding distributedrenewableenergytechnologiesforoff-gridcommunities.With thethirddecadeofthe21stcenturypresentinghumanitywithseriousand profoundchallengesthatconnecthealth,food,water,energy,andinterwoveninternationaleconomies,thesecondeditionisawelcomeand muchneededadditiontoessentialreadingforstudents,policy-makers, andaninformedpublicthatwantstobeinvolvedintheongoingenergy transformationandtransition.

Thebookbuildsonthestrengthsofits firstedition,whichincludeaclear presentationofthevariousrenewableenergytechnologiesthemselves, togetherwithgraphicsandtablesthatconnecttheeasilycomprehended theoreticalframeworktomanypracticalandtangibleexamples.These havebeendetailedandexpandedtoincludemultiplecasestudiesthatallow thereadertoseethecaseinpoint;thesetechnologiesarerapidlybeing deployedthroughouttheworldandhaveanenormousimpactonpeople’ s occupationsandlives.

Ihadthegoodfortuneofbeingabletouse DistributedRenewableEnergies forOff-GridCommunities inthegraduateprogramofSantaClaraUniversity’ s SchoolofEngineering.Thecourse, “DistributedandRenewableEnergyfor theDevelopingWorld,” tookthebookasitstextandinspiration.Assuch, andwiththegenerousguidanceandadviceofthebook’sprimaryauthorand editor,ProfessorDr.NasirElBassam,itsurveyedenergyengineeringand entrepreneurshipinemergingmarketcountries,withanemphasisonstrategiesforcopingwiththeabsenceofagrid.Itanalyzedstrategiesforenergy generation,transmission,andstorageatthehousehold,community,and regionalscales,drawingfromsectorandcasestudiesinthedeveloping world.

Inreadingthesecondeditionofbook,one findsthatitcontinuestoconnectandexplainconceptsusingauniqueandeasilycomprehendedframework.Thisguidingprincipleisdescribedneartheintroductiontothebook andiscalledtheenergytrilemma.Brieflyput,itisthenexusamongenvironmentalsustainability,energy,equity,andenergysecurity.Thesearethekey conceptsforprovidingeconomicdevelopmentandprosperityformorethan 7.6billionpeopleastheeconomyoftheworldisreconstructedandconfiguredtobemoreresilient.Makenomistake,thebookpresentsaroadmap

forbasicneeds,aswellasworkthathasbeendoneandtheworkthatremains.Itconnectsbothenergygenerationandusewithfoodproduction andeconomicdevelopmentsothatengineers,scientists,planners,and financialinstitutionscanhelptodetermineasuitablemixofappropriatetechnologiesandpolicyapproachesforagivenlocation.Thelocationspresented includethoseinIndia,Iraq,VaticanCity,Germany,andTunisia.

Fromitsbeginning,afterdescribingthetrilemmachallenge,thebook carefullyandsystematicallydescribesthenecessaryrestructuringforenergy generationandsupplyaswellasdemand,andthentransitionstopresent theroadmapforrenewableenergycommunities,aswellasplanningand scenariosthatincludeintegratedrenewableenergycommunitiesandfarm production.Botharidandsemiaridregionsareconsidered.Thereand throughoutthebook,energyandfoodrequirementsareconnectedand described,togetherwithmodelingapproaches.Asistypicalforeachchapter, ahealthysetofreferencesisprovidedsothatthereadercancontinueto explorethosetopicsofparticularinterestfurther.

Theenergypotentialanalysisfromrenewableenergyresourceavailability isdiscussedwithconnectionstovariousformsofsolarenergy.Windenergyis described(atsmall,medium,andlargescales).Adetaileddescriptionfollows ofthevarioustypesofbiomassandbioenergysystems,alltiedtodistributed andsmall-scaleproduction.Hydrogengeneration(asanenergycarrier)is thendescribed,aswellashydropowerandwaterpowerforbothlandbasedandmarineenergy-generatingsystems.Ofcourse,geothermal,energy storage,smartgrids,andelectricvehiclesarecoveredinsubsequentchapters. Afeaturemuchappreciatedbystudentsandpolicy-makersalikeisthe comprehensivecoverageofthewholerangeofrenewableenergyoptions thatareavailable.

Throughoutthebookandinseveralappendices,casestudiesarepresentedforvarioustechnologicalapproachessuitableforparticularcountries andregions.Anotheruniquepartofthesecondeditionofthebookisthe considerationofmobilityandtransportationinfuels,infrastructure,andapproaches.Itisalsorefreshingtoseethediscussiononrethinkingmobilityand howittiestourbanplanning.Yetanotheradditiontothesecondeditionis waterpurificationinallofitsvariousforms.

Thebook’ s finalchapterscompletetheworkbydescribingtheconnectionsamongenergyresiliency,digitization,blockchain,andtheenergy sector.TheauthorpresentsaMarshallPlanforempoweringurbanandrural communitiesandthetransitiontoanachievablevisionforregionaland worldpeace.Becausethebookcontainsaglossaryaswellasabbreviations

andacronyms,andconsideringthestyleandformatofitspresentation, readersfromavarietyofbackgroundswilleasilyreadandunderstandit.It achievesaholisticapproach,yetitisdetailed.

Amultitudeofdistributedenergysystemsthroughouttheworldare preferredovercentralpowerplantgenerationschemesbecauseofsuchconcerns.Inaddition,theyallowforimprovedaccess,socialequity,andrapid scale-upthroughincrementaladditionstoexistingprojectsthatareviable andcost-effective.Thisprovidesinvestorsandthe financialcommunity withtheconfidencethattheyneedtousetheconceptsfordistributed renewableenergiestoempoweroff-gridcommunitiesinthe21stcentury tocreatesustainable,competitive,secure,andprosperoussocieties. GregP.Smestad,PhD

Preface

Energyisdirectlyrelatedtothemostcriticaleconomicandsocialissuesthat affectsustainabledevelopment:mobility,jobcreation,incomelevelsand accesstosocialservices,genderandracialdisparity,populationgrowth,food production,climatechange,environmentalquality,industry,communications,andregionalandglobalsecurityissues.Manyofthecrisesonour planetarisefromthedesiretosecuresuppliesofrawmaterials,particularly energysources,atlowprices.TheInternationalEnergyAgencyforecasts thattheworldprimaryenergydemandwillgrowby1.6%/yearonaverage upto2030.

Currentapproachestoenergyareunsustainableandnonrenewable. Today,theworld’senergysupplyislargelybasedonfossilfuels,nuclear power,hydro,andothers(IEA).

InternationalEnergyAgency,globalannualaveragechangeinenergy productionbyfuel,1971 2017.

Thesesourcesofenergywillnotlastforeverandhaveproventobe contributorstoourenvironmentalproblems.Inlessthanthreecenturies

sincetheindustrialrevolution,humanityhasalreadyburnedroughlyhalfof thefossilfuelsthataccumulatedundertheearth’ssurfaceoverhundredsof millionsofyears.Nuclearpowerisalsobasedonalimitedresource (uranium),andtheuseofnuclearpowercreatessuchincalculablerisks thatnuclearpowerplantscannotbeinsured.After50yearsofintensive research,nosingle,safe,long-termdisposalsiteforradioactivewastehas beenfound.

Renewableenergyoffersourplanetachancetoreducecarbonemissions, cleantheair,andputourcivilizationonamoresustainablefooting. Renewablesourcesofenergyareanessentialpartofanoverallstrategyof sustainabledevelopment.Theyhelpreducedependenceonenergyimports, therebyensuringasustainablesupplyandclimateprotection.Furthermore, renewableenergysourcescanhelpimprovethecompetitivenessofindustries overthelongrunandhaveapositiveimpactonregionaldevelopmentand employment.Renewableenergieswillprovideamorediversified,balanced, andstablepoolofenergysources.

Themaintargetsofthisbookwillbeacomprehensiveandsolid contributiontoenlightenthevitalroleofdevelopingdecentralizedand distributedrenewableenergyproductionandsupplyforoff-gridcommunities alongwiththeirtechnicalfeasibilitiestomeetthegrowingdemandfor energy,andtofacecurrentandfuturechallengesoflimitedfossilandnuclear fuelreserves,globalclimatechange,and financialcrises.Itpresentsvarious optionsandcasestudiesrelatedtothepotentialofrenewableenergiesand futuretransitionoptionsalongwiththeirenvironmental,economic,and socialdimensions.Withrapidandcontinuedgrowthintheworld,itisno longeraquestionofwhenwewillincorporatevariousrenewableenergy sourcesintothemix,buthowfastthetransitioncanbemanaged.

TheimpactofCOVID-19onrenewableenergy;howeconomic stimuluspackagesneedtobebuiltaroundrenewableenergyandenergy efficiency;howtocontinueinforming,influencing,anddebatingonline toadvancetheuseofrenewableenergy;andperhapsmostimportant, howanycrisisisanopportunitytostepback,learn,adjust,andchange. ThemomentumbehindCOVID-19isenormous.Wehaveanunprecedentedopportunitytoacceleratemuchneededchange!Forbothclimate andsustainabledevelopmentreasons,weneedtoquestionthewayweare doingthings:howweproduce,consumeand financeproductionofgoods, howwemovethosegoodsandprovideservices,howwetradeandshare resources,andhowwecreateamorerobustandresilientinfrastructure. COVID-19raisesthesamefundamentalquestionsbutwithanurgency

that,unfortunately,thoseofusintheclimateanddevelopmentcommunity havebeenunabletocommunicatesuccessfully(RanaAdib,Executive Director,REN21,2020).Thisbookisanattempttooutlinethenecessary informationandconceptssothatwecan,asmanyarecallingit, “Build BackBetter” https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Build_Back_Better.

Ihopethatthisbookoffersaplatformandresourceforplanningtofoster animprovementinenergygenerationandsupply.Wewishittocontributeto enlighteningandunderstandingofthevitaleconomicandsocialrolesthat distributedrenewableenergycanprovideinmeetingthegrowingdemand forenergyandfacingcurrentandfuturechallengesoflimitedfossilfuel reserves,globalclimatechange,andequitableeconomicdevelopmentforall.

IEA, Globalannualaveragechangeinenergyproductionbyfuel,1971-2017, IEA,Paris https://www.iea.org/data-and-statistics/charts/global-annualaverage-change-in-energy-production-by-fuel-1971-2017.

Thecurrentcenturywillwitnessamajortransformationinhowenergyis acquired,stored,andusedglobally.Atthispoint,nearlyone-fifthoftheway throughthe21stcentury,changesareclearlydiscernible,butmoreprofound onesarestilltocome.Thechallengeswefaceincarryingoutthesetransformationsrangefromscientificandtechnologicaltosocietal,cultural, andeconomicinvolvinghowwelive,work,andplay.Theimpetusforthese changescomesfromthedeepimpactsthatbothdevelopedanddeveloping societieshavehadonourplanet’senvironmentduringthepastcenturyand projectionsgoingforwardregardingwhatwillhappengloballyifwedo notact.Realandprojectedurbanizationtogetherwithgrowingglobal populationmakeitclearthatwemustactnow.Thetransitiontoa climate-neutralsocietyandcarbon-freeenergygenerationisbothanurgent challengeandanopportunitytobuildabetterfutureforall.

NasirElBassam,Ph.D.

InternationalResearchCentreforRenewableEnergy, www.ifeed.org.

Chairperson,WCRE,WorldCouncilforRenewableEnergy www. wcre.org

ScientificAdvisoryBoard,FederalAssociationofRegenerative Mobility,Berlin www.brm-ev.de.

Acknowledgments

MostgratefulthanksareduetoMarciaLawtonSchlichting,whodidthe mostarduousandtime-consumingworkofpreparingthemanuscript.

IwouldalsoliketothankGregP.Smestad,ThamerAhmedMohamed, DanielePagani,andLotharSchlichtingfortheircontributionstothebook.

TheeditorwishestothankthesupportingteamatElsevier,the AcquisitionsEditor,LisaReading;EditorialProjectManager,LetíciaLima; ProductionProjectManager,ManjuThirumalaivasan;andothersforthe substantialassistanceprovided.

WhatKindofEnergyDoesthe WorldNeed?

N.ElBassam

InternationalResearchCentreforRenewableEnergy,IFFED.org,Germany

Contents

Abstract 6

1.1.1 Whatkindofenergydoestheworldneed?6

1.1.1.1 Introduction6

1.1.2 Distributedrenewableenergyforenergyaccess7 References11

Abstract12

1.2.1 Energytrilemmaindex12

1.2.2 Dimensions13

1.2.3 Monitoringthesustainabilityofnationalenergysystems15 Reference19

Abstract20

1.3.1 Distribution21

1.3.2 Distributedenergygeneration22

1.3.3 Distributedenergysupply22

1.3.4 Communitypower23

1.3.5 Off-gridsystems24

1.3.6 Concludingremarks24 Furtherreading26

Alongwiththedevelopmentsofthepastthree-quartersofacenturyhave comedisparities,energyinjustice,andmajorenvironmentalthreats,in particularclimatechange.So,whatshouldgovernmentsdotoquellthecivil unrestandgrowingpopulismresultingfromtheseinequalities?

Certainly,inourview,oneclearansweristotransformourenergy systemtoarenewables-baseddistributedsystemresultinginmuchgreater economicopportunitiesforallpeople,energyjustice,andenvironmental recoveryandimprovement(DavidRenné,SunburstISESNewsletter, 2019).

Therewerealsosideeventswhereotherimportantpublicationswere presented.Forexample,RanaAbib,ExecutiveDirectorofREN21,

DistributedRenewableEnergiesforOff-GridCommunities,Volume2

ISBN:978-0-12-821605-7 https://doi.org/10.1016/B978-0-12-821605-7.00028-3

announcedtwonewpublications: “PerspectivesontheGlobalRenewable EnergyTransition” and “AsiaandthePacificRenewableEnergyStatus Report.” ThePerspectivesreportprovideskeytakeawaysfromthe2019 GlobalStatusReport,highlightingimportantfactssuchasthatrenewables accountedfor64%ofallnewelectricitygenerationin2018;andthat sameyear,ninecountriesgeneratedmorethan20%ofelectricitywith windandsolarphotovoltaics(PV).Furthermore,citiesaretakingaleading roleinadoptingsomeofthemostambitioustargetsglobally,andatleast100 citiesworldwidenowuse70%ormorerenewableelectricity.However, thereportalsonotesthatslowgrowthintheuseofrenewablesinheating andcoolingneedstobeaddressedtoachievedecarburizationinallofour energysectors.

ThepointIwouldliketomakehereisthatthecurrentglobalunrestthat weareseeing,whichattimeshasbecomeviolent,especiallywheneconomic andpoliticalfactorscomeintoplay,hasinpartbeencausedby,butalsocan besolvedby,thewayweproduceanduseenergytofueloureconomicsystem.Wearealreadyseeingmassiveglobaldemonstrationsagainstthewayin whichweuseenergy,whichhasledtotheclimatecrisis,suchasthepeaceful demonstrationsbyFridaysforFutureprotestingthelackofgovernment actiononclimatechange,andclimatedemonstrationsadoptingcivildisobediencetacticssuchasthoseoftheExtinctionRebellion(BBC,2019, https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-48607989).Themovementisreported criticallyinpartbecausemanyofitsprotestsarenotlegal.Forthisreason, arrestshavebeenmadeworldwide.OnOct.14,2019,theLondonpolice issuedademonstrationbanforthemovement;itliftedtheban4dayslater becausethemeasurewasnolongernecessarybecausethewaveofprotests hadended.TheBritishHighCourtofJusticebroughtanactionagainst thelegalityofthebanonNov.6,2019.

ISESisoneofmanykeylike-mindedorganizationsworkinghardto communicatehowtherenewableenergytransformationwillcreate immenseandmoreequitableeconomicbenefits,energyaccessandsecurity, andenvironmentalrecovery.

TheinstalledcapacityofsolarPVsystemshasgrownfrom23GWatthe startof2010toaround600GWcurrentlyandsolarthermalsystemsfrom 203GW-thermaltoover500GW-thermalduringthatperiod.Overthe sameperiod,windenergyinstalledcapacitygrewfrom159toover 600GWandconcentratingsolarthermalpowergrewfromlessthan 1GWtoover5.5GW.Today,theglobalpowersectorispoweredby over26%renewableenergy,andrenewablessurpasstraditionalenergysourcesfornewinstalledpowercapacityaroundtheworld.Governmentpolicies andnationaltargetsforrenewableenergydeploymentshavegrown

significantlythroughthedecade,andutilityacceptanceofvariablerenewableenergysupplyhasexpandedinmanycountries.Clearly,the2010s sawgreatstridesinaglobalcleanenergytransformation;forallpurposes, itcouldbecalledthedecadeofrenewableenergy.

However,duringthisdecade,thescopeofourchallengeinaddressing keyenergy-relatedissuessuchasenvironmentalimpacts,energysecurity, andaccessto financealsobecameparamount.Atthestartofthedecade, therewashopethatannualglobalCO2 emissionshadpeakedataround 30Gtandwouldstarttodecreaseowingtoalloftheclean-energyinitiatives andgrowingacknowledgmentoftheneedtocombatclimatechange. Nevertheless,despitethesigningoftheParisClimateAgreementinthe middecade,annualglobalCO2 concentrationsactuallyincreasedandare nowaround33.1Gt,muchofthisstillresultingfromcoal-firedpowergenerationandtheuseoffossilfuelsinthetransportationsector.Weseethese challengesasindicatorsthatISES’sworkisnowherenearcompleted:despite theimpressivegrowthofsolartechnologiesfromlaboratoryexperimentsto commercialsuccessthathashappenedsincetheearlydaysofISES,dating backtothemiddleofthepastcentury,muchworkremainstourgegovernmentsandcivilsocietytobemoreambitiousinaddressingclimatechange, andtoarticulatethemultitudeofenvironmental,economic,andenergysecuritybenefitsofa100%renewableenergysystem(Renné,D.,Sunburst ISESNewsletter2019).ThesenumbersarederivedfromtheREN21 2019GlobalStatusReportandtheIEAGlobalEnergyandCO2 Status Report.

AFERCreportconfirmedtheriseofrenewablesabovecoal,gas,oil,and nuclearcombined.AccordingtoareviewbytheSUNDAYCampaignof dataissuedbyFERC,themixofrenewableenergysources(i.e.,biomass, geothermal,hydropower,solar,andwind)provided57.26%ofnewUS electricalgeneratingcapacityaddedin2019,swampingthatprovidedby coal,naturalgas,oil,andnuclearpowercombined(KennethBossong, 2020).

FERC’slatestmonthlyEnergyInfrastructureUpdatereport(withdata throughDec.31,2019)revealedthatrenewablesources(i.e.,biomass, geothermal,hydropower,solar,andwind)accountedfor11,857MWof newgeneratingcapacitybytheendoftheyear.Thatisathirdmore (33.97%)capacitythanthatofnaturalgas(8557MW),nuclear (155MW),oil(77MW),andcoal(62MW)combined.

Renewableshavealsosurpassed22%(i.e.,22.06%)ofthenation’stotal availableinstalledgeneratingcapacity,furtherexpandingtheirleadover

coalcapacity(20.89%).Amongrenewables,windcanboastthelargest installedelectricalgeneratingcapacity:8.51%oftheUStotal,followedby hydropower(8.41%),solar(3.49%),biomass(1.33%),andgeothermal (0.32%).Thus,windandsolarcombinedaccountfor12.0%ofthenation’ s electricalgeneratingcapacity.

Moreover,FERCforeseesrenewablesdramaticallyexpandingtheirlead overfossilfuelsandnuclearpowerintermsofnewcapacityadditionsin comingyears.Netgeneratingcapacityadditions(i.e.,proposedadditions underconstructionminusproposedretirements)forrenewablesources total48,254MW:wind:26,403MW;solar:19,973MW;hydropower: 1460MW;biomass:240MW;andgeothermal:178MW.

Bycomparison,netadditionsfornaturalgastotal21,090MWwhereas theinstalledcapacitiesforcoal,nuclear,andoilareprojectedtodropby 18,857,3391,and3085MWrespectively.Infact,FERCreportedno newcoalcapacityinthepipelineovercomingyears.

Thus,althoughnetnewrenewableenergycapacityisprojectedtobe nearly50,000MWgreaterwithinthenextfewyears,thatoffossilfuels andnuclearpowercombinedwilldeclinebyover4200MW.Newwind capacityalonewillbegreaterthanthatofnaturalgas,whereasthatof windandsolarcombinedwillmorethandoublenewgascapacity.

Moreover,ifFERC’sdataprovecorrect,renewablesourceswillaccount formorethanaquarterofthenation’stotalavailableinstalledgeneratingcapacity(25.16%)whereascoalwilldropto18.63%andthatofnuclearandoil willdecreaseto8.29and2.95%,respectively.Naturalgaswillincreaseits share,butonlyslightly,from44.67to44.78%.

AstheexecutivedirectoroftheSUNDAYCampaign,Ibelievethatthe rapidgrowthofrenewablesandthecorrespondingdropinelectricalproductionbycoalandoilprovidesaglimmerofhopeforslowingthepaceof climatechange.Inaddition,renewables’ continuedexpansioninthenear future,asforecastbyFERC,suggeststhatwithsupportivegovernmental policies,thesetechnologiescouldprovideanevengreatershareoftotal USelectricalgeneration(https://www.renewableenergyworld.com/2020/ 03/09/new-ferc-report-confirms-the-rise-of-renewables-above-coal-gas-oil-a nd-nuclear-combined/?utm_medium¼email&utm_campaign¼rew_weekly_ newsletter&utm_source¼enl&utm_content¼2020-03-11).

OnMar.3,2020,theGovernmentoftheAustralianstateofTasmania announcedalong-termstrategyfortheisland,inwhichitsetnota100% buta200%renewableenergytargetfor2040.Theannouncement,made byTasmanianPremierPeterGutwein,followsapreviouscommitmentto 100%renewableenergyby2022.

ThenewstrategyaimstocoverTasmania’sdomesticenergysupply,but alsotoexportrenewableenergytootherpartsofAustraliaandpotentiallyto othercountries.Themaintechnologies,whichwillachievethisgoaland makeTasmaniaagreenpowerhouse,willbehydropower,windpower, andhydrogen.

GutweindeclaredthatadetailedRenewableEnergyActionPlanwould bereleasedinAprilandthathydrogenproductionfordomesticuseandfor exportlatestby2027wouldbeanimportantpartoftheplan.Thegovernmentintendedtoboosttherolloutofthestate’shydrogeneconomywith $50millioninpublicfunds.

TheTasmaniangovernmentexpectedthatthenewplanwouldleadnot onlytonewjobsandasubstantialcontributiontoreducingAustralia’ s greenhousegasemissions,butpotentiallytoacombinedinvestmentof $7.1billionintotheTasmanianeconomy(http://www.premier.tas.gov. au/releases/state_of_the_the_state_address).

Tacklingpoverty,whichaffectsone-thirdoftheworld’spopulation,and servingtheneedsoftheunservedshouldbeourpriorities.Wehavethe knowledgeandtechnologiestoachievethesegoals.Whatisneededisfor alltobehonest,faithful,andcredible tousaswellastoothers,tolive inpeaceanddignity:notonlyforpartoftheworld,butforall.

Lackofsuf ficientenergysupplyleadstoalackofdevelopment.Incountriesandregionswithenergyshortages,populationssufferthemost.Itis imperativethatwiththeeraoffossilfuelcomingtoanend,futureinitiatives forenergysupplybebasedonrenewableenergy.

Withthisbook,wepledgetouseourknowledge,voices,anddeterminationto:

-Persevere,eachinourownway,nurturedbytheculturalwellspringsthat areourheritage,whetherfromAsia,Africa,Europe,SouthandNorth America,orelsewhere;and.

-Joinhandsandworktogether,inspired,r-energized,andcommitted

Distributedrenewableenergy

Strategiestowardachievingenergysecurity,equity,andtheenvironmentalsustainabilityofenergysystemsthroughoutthetransitionprocess

Abstract

Wehavereachedourlimitsastheresultoftheexcessiveuseoffossil fuelsandrelatedtechnologiesthatbenefitafew financiallybutleavetherest tocopewiththeconsequences.Developingtheenergysupplywouldautomaticallyimprovethemajorissuesofsustainabledevelopment.

Keywords:Distributedrenewableenergy,Typesofenergyaccess

1.1.1Whatkindofenergydoestheworldneed?

1.1.1.1Introduction

Itisnosecretthatwehavereachedourlimitsasaresultoftheexcessiveuseoffossilfuelsandrelatedtechnologiesthatbenefitafew financially butleavetheresttocopewiththeconsequences.Amongtheseunfortunate outcomesarehealthhazards,securityissues,dwindlingpublicservices,and restrictedaccesstoeducationandjobopportunities.

Developingtheenergysupplywouldautomaticallyimprovethemajor issuesofsustainabledevelopment:poverty,jobcreation,incomelevels, andaccesstosocialandeconomicservices,genderdisparity,population growth,agriculturalproduction,climatechange,theenvironment,security issues,andmigration.Today,aroundtwobillionpeoplestilllackaccesstoa reliablesupplyofelectricity.Ourchallengeinthe21stcenturywillbeto provideenergyforafurther fivetosevenbillionpeoplewhilecuttingemissionsbyhalf.

By2050,humanitywillneedthreeearthstosupplyenoughresourcesto meetthegrowingdemandsforenergy.Wecannotcontinuetomanageour resourcesinsuchanegligentmanner.Thisoptiondoesnotexist.Wehaveto considertheneedsoffuturegenerations.

Withrapidandcontinuedpopulationgrowthintheworld,depletionof naturalresources,andclimatechange,itisnolongeraquestionofwhenwe willincorporatevariousrenewableenergysourcesintothemix,buthowfast thetransitioncanbemanaged.

Inlessthanthreecenturiessincetheindustrialrevolution,humanityhas alreadyburnedroughlyhalfofthefossilfuelsthataccumulatedunderthe earth’ssurfaceoverhundredsofmillionsofyears.Nuclearpowerisalso basedonalimitedresource(uranium).

Althoughsomefossilenergyresourcesmightlastalittlelongerthanpredicted,especiallyifadditionalreservesarediscovered,themainproblemof scarcitywillremain,andthisrepresentsthegreatestchallengetohumanity. Renewableenergyoffersourplanetachancetoreducecarbonemissions, cleantheair,andputourcivilizationonamoresustainablefooting.

Renewablesourcesofenergyareanessentialpartofanoverallstrategyof sustainabledevelopment.Theyhelpreducedependenceonenergyimports, ensuringasustainablesupplyandclimateprotection.Furthermore,renewableenergysourcescanhelpimprovethecompetitivenessofindustries overthelongrunandhaveapositiveimpactonregionaldevelopment andemployment.Renewableenergieswillprovideamorediversified, balanced,andstablepoolofenergysources.

Energycannotbecreated;itcanbeconvertedfromoneformtootherby technical,biologicalandchemicalmeans,suchasgas,oil,coal,solar,and windenergy,intoheatandpowerenergy,biomassintoheat,electricityor biofuels,andsoon.

1.1.2Distributedrenewableenergyforenergyaccess

Accordingtothe20th-centurymodelofenergydistribution,largepowerplantsfueledbycoal,hydro,orgasgeneratedelectricitythatwasdistributedthroughacentralizedgrid.Thepicturehaschanged.Advancing technologyhasdiversifiedthegrid,addingnewsourcesofenergygeneration andtwo-waypower flows.Utility-scalewindandsolarfarmsaresupplying anincreasingproportionofpower.Enterdistributedenergyresources, knownasdistributedenergyresources(DER):small-scaleunitsoflocalgenerationconnectedtothegridatthedistributionlevel.DERscaninclude behind-the-meterrenewableandnonrenewablegeneration,energystorage, inverters(electronicdevicesthatchangeDCtoAC),electricvehicles,and

othercontrolledloads(separatelymeteredappliancessuchashotwatersystems).DERisalsocomposedofnewtechnologysuchassmartmetersand dataservices(ARENA,2020).

DERpenetrationisgrowingeveryyear.Increaseddemandsonthe nation’selectricalpowersystemsandincidencesofelectricityshortages, powerqualityproblems,rollingblackouts,andelectricitypricespikes havecausedmanyutilitycustomerstoseekothersourcesofhigh-quality, reliableelectricity.DERs,small-scalepowergenerationsourceslocated closetowhereelectricityisused(e.g.,ahomeorbusiness),provideanalternativetoorenhancementofthetraditionalelectricpowergrid.Alimiting factorishostingcapacity,ortheamountofDERthatcanbeconnected toadistributionnetworkandoperatedwithinitstechnicallimits.DERs canbeincorporatedintothegridwherenothreatstosafety,reliability,or otheroperationalfeaturesexistandnoinfrastructureupgradesarerequired. Inmanycases,however,gridmodernizationisnecessarytointegrateDERs safelyintothenetwork.

DERsareafaster,lessexpensiveoptiontotheconstructionoflarge,centralpowerplantsandhigh-voltagetransmissionlines.Theyofferconsumers thepotentialforlowercost,higherservicereliability,high-powerquality, increasedenergyefficiency,andenergyindependence.Theuseofrenewabledistributedenergygenerationtechnologiesandgreenpowersuchas wind,PV,geothermal,biomass,andhydroelectricpowercanalsoprovide asignificantenvironmentalbenefit.

DERdeploymentisincreasinginthedevelopingworlddespitelimited financialsupport.

Approximately1.2billionpeople(about16%oftheglobalpopulation) livewithoutelectricity,andabout2.7billionpeople(38%oftheglobalpopulation)arewithoutcleancookingfacilities.Thevastmajorityofpeople withoutaccesstobothelectricityandcleancookingfacilitiesareinsubSaharanAfricaandtheOceaniaregion;mostliveinruralareas.

Theoldparadigmofenergyaccessthroughgridextensionaloneis becomingobsolete,asground-levelcustomerdemandismotivating hundredsofmillionsofhouseholdstogeneratetheirownenergytofeed off-gridunitsorcommunity-scaleminigrids.MobiletechnologyPay-asYou-Go(PAYG)businessmodels,theavailabilityofmicroloans,the viabilityofmicrogrids,andfallingtechnologypricescontinuetosupport DERdeploymentworldwide.Themostpopularbusinessmodelswithin

theDERsectorin2016weredistributedenergyservicecompaniesformini/ micro/picogrids,thePAYGmodelforstand-alonesystems,andmicrofinanceandmicrocredit.

In2018,globalenergydemandincreasedanestimated2.3%,thegreatest riseinadecade.Thiswastheresultofstrongglobaleconomicgrowth(3.7%) andhigherheatingandcoolingdemandsinsomeregions.China,theUnited States,andIndiatogetheraccountedforalmost70%ofthetotalincreasein demand.Becauseofariseinfossilfuelconsumption,globalenergy-related CO2 emissionsgrewanestimated1.7%duringtheyear.Asof2017, renewableenergyaccountedforanestimated18.1%oftotal finalenergy consumption(TFEC).Modernrenewablessupplied10.6%ofTFEC,with anestimated4.4%growthindemandcomparedwith2016.Traditional useofbiomassforcookingandheatingindevelopingcountriesaccounted fortheremainingshare.Thegreatestportionofthemodernrenewableshare wasrenewablethermalenergy(anestimated4.2%ofTFEC),followedby hydropower(3.6%),otherrenewablepowersourcesincludingwind powerandsolarPV(2%),andtransportbiofuels(about1%)(Figures1.1.1 and1.1.2).

Thebestroutetogoisrenewableenergy:solarenergy,windpower, hydropower,bioenergy,hydrogenandfuelcells,geothermalpower,and otherformsofenergysuchasthatfromtides,theoceans,andhothydrogen

Figure1.1.1 Estimatedrenewableenergyshareoftotalenergyconsumptionfor2017. Courtesyof REN21(2019).

fusion.Beforethedevelopmentofcoalinthemid-19thcentury,nearlyall energyusedwasrenewable.Asfarbackas400,000yearsago,humansused biomasstolight fires;wesailedtheseaswiththepowerofwindandweused waterpowertocrushgrains.However,thereisacertaindisadvantageto renewableenergysources:storagecapacity.

OthercountriessuchasDenmark,CostaRica,Nicaragua,andSweden arealsoonthewayto100%.Althoughthepathissometimesrocky,youstill havetowalkitifyouwantsuccessinthelongrun.

Figure1.1.2 Renewableenergytodayinaglobalcontext. PV,photovoltaics. From REN 21GSR(2019)

However,theexpansionofpowerplantsforgreenenergyaloneisnot enough.Timeaftertime,gridoperatorsmustcompensateforimbalances inelectricityconsumptionandswitchonconventionalpowerplantsto copewithconsumptionpeaksandpreventtotalblackouts.Theproblems arethatthesunusuallydoesnotshineexactlywhenthemostelectricityis needed,orthatthereisnowindwhenthewholecountryiswatchingfootballonTV.Gaspowerplants,forexample,mustsupplyelectricityas needed,whichdrivesupcosts.Thebiggestproblemishowtostoreenergy thatisproducedinagreenandsustainableway.Ofcourse,storingenergyin batteriesisobvious.Solarsystemsontheroofofafamilyhomecanfeeda batteryinthebasement,whichcanbeusedwhenneeded.Dependingon thesizeofthesolarpanelsandbattery,aswellastheaveragehoursofsunshineatagivenlocation,theenergyconsumptionofatypicalhousehold couldevenbecoveredcompletelyoff-grid.

So,whichkindofbatteriesarewetalkingabout?Therearedifferent typesofbatteries:lead,lithium-ion,whichareusedinsmartphonesandecars,andredox-flow,whichareusedprimarilyforstationaryapplications suchaswindpowerplants.However,thereisaproblemwithbatteries:priceswillrisewithdemand.Becausebatteriesdependonrarerawmaterials, theyarealsoapreciousgoodsandunsuitableformassproductionina waythatwouldbeneededtopoweranentiresociety.

Nevertheless,someprovidershavesetthemselvesthegoalofsupplying themarketwithsuchbatteriesandcreatingadecentralizedpowergrid.Pioneersinthis fieldarecompaniessuchasTesla.

References

AustralianRenewableEnergyAgency(ARENA),2020. EstimatedRenewableEnergyShareofTotalEnergyConsumptionfor2017,REN21,2019. RenewableEnergyTodayinGlobalContext,2019.REN21,GSR.

Usingdistributedenergyresourcestomeetthe trilemmachallenges

Abstract

Distributedgenerationisalsocalledon-site,dispersed,embedded,or decentralizedgeneration.Decentralizedenergy,ordistributedenergy, generateselectricity,heat,andfuelfrommanysmallenergysources.In thefuture,whenplanninganewpowerandheatingortransportationfuel systemonacleansheetofpaper,therewillbenobigfossilfuel basedpower stationsorlargehigh-voltagetransmissionlines.Thisbookillustratesthe futureoftheoff-gridpowersupply,becausethereisnoadvantagetohaving internationaland/orinterregionalgridstructures.

Keywords:Communitypower,Distributedgeneration,Off-grid systems

1.2.1Energytrilemmaindex

Theworldisundergoinganunprecedentedenergytransitionfroma systembasedoncarbon-intensivefossilfuelstoaonebasedonlowcarbon,renewableenergy,drivenbythetwinimperativesofmitigating climatechangeandgeneratingeconomicprosperity.Thespeedofchange andtheeffectivenessofindividualgovernmentstodevelopandimplement policiestodeliverenergysustainabilityvaryacrosscountriesandgeographies.TheWorldEnergyCouncilrecognizesthevalueofadoptingawhole energysystemsapproachinprovidingthebenefitsofsustainableenergyto all.Thisenergytransitionisaconnectedpolicychallenge.Successinvolves managingthethreecoredimensions:energysecurity,energyequity,andthe environmentalsustainabilityofenergysystemsthroughoutthetransition process(Worldenergy,2019).

TheEnergyTrilemmaIndex,developedinpartnershipwithOliver Wyman,providesanobjectiveratingofnationalenergysystemperformance acrossthesethreeTrilemmadimensions.TheTrilemmawascreatedto

supportaninformeddialogueaboutimprovingenergypolicytoachieve energysustainability,byprovidingdecision-makerswithinformationabout countries’ relativeperformance.Objectivelycomparingthesuccessof energysystemsaroundtheglobeischallenging,butahigh-levelranking ofperformanceagainstasetofbenchmarkindicatorshelpstostartaconversationaboutpolicycoherenceandeffectiveness.Deeperanalysisatthe regionalandnationallevelscangivepolicy-makersrealinsightsintotrajectoriesandoutlooks,informingfuturepriorities.Toprovidegreaterinsight, wehaveevolvedthemethodologyforthe2019Trilemmaand,forthe first time,introducedvisualizationofhistoricaltrendstoenabletheTrilemma performanceofindividualcountriestobetrackedbacktwodecadesto 2000.Thenewtime-seriesanalysisprovidesinsightsintoacountry’shistoricaltrends,challenges,andopportunitiesforimprovementsinmeeting energygoalsnowandinthefuture.TheIndexdemonstratestheimpact ofthevaryingpolicypathwaysthatcountrieshavetakenineachofthe dimensionsoverthepast20years.Lookingatthesetrendscaninforma dialogueonnationalenergypolicytopromotecoherenceandintegration toenablebettercalibratedenergysystemsinthecontextoftheglobalenergy transitionchallenge.

1.2.2Dimensions

TheWorldEnergyTrilemmaIndexhasbeenpreparedannuallysince 2010.Itpresentsacomparativerankingof128countries’ energysystems.It providesanassessmentofacountry’senergysystemperformance,reflecting balanceandrobustnessinthethreeTrilemmadimensions.Itreflectsa nation’scapacitytomeetcurrentandfutureenergydemandreliably,and withstandandbouncebackswiftlyfromsystemshocks;anditassessesa country’sabilitytoprovideuniversalaccesstoaffordable,fairlypriced,and abundantenergyfordomesticandcommercialuse(Figures1.2.1and1.2.2).

Figure1.2.1 TheTrilemmadimensions.

Figure1.2.2 WorldEnergyTrilemmatop10performers.

1.2.3Monitoringthesustainabilityofnationalenergy systems

Theworldisundergoinganunprecedentedenergytransitionfroma systembasedoncarbon-intensivefossilfuelstoaonebasedonlowcarbon,renewableenergy,drivenbythetwinimperativesofmitigating climatechangeandgeneratingeconomicprosperity.Thespeedofchange andtheeffectivenessofindividualgovernmentstodevelopandimplement policiestodeliverenergysustainabilityvaryacrosscountriesandgeographies.TheWorldEnergyCouncilrecognizesthevalueofadoptingawhole energysystemsapproachinprovidingthebenefitsofsustainableenergyto all.Thisenergytransitionisaconnectedpolicychallenge.Successinvolves managingthethreecoredimensions:energysecurity,energyequity,andthe environmentalsustainabilityofenergysystemsthroughoutthetransition process.

TheCouncil’sWorldEnergyTrilemmaIndex,developedinpartnership withOliverWyman,providesanobjectiveratingofnationalenergysystem performanceacrossthesethreeTrilemmadimensions.Wehavecreatedthe Trilemmatosupportaninformeddialogueaboutimprovingenergypolicy toachieveenergysustainability,byprovidingdecision-makerswithinformationoncountries’ relativeperformance.Objectivelycomparingthesuccessofenergysystemsaroundtheglobeischallenging,butahigh-level rankingofperformanceagainstasetofbenchmarkindicatorshelpsstarta conversationaboutpolicycoherenceandeffectiveness.Deeperanalysisat regionalandnationallevelscangivepolicy-makersrealinsightsintotrajectoriesandoutlooks,informingfuturepriorities.

Toprovidegreaterinsight,amethodologywasevolvedforthe2019 Trilemma;forthe firsttime,itintroducedavisualizationofhistoricaltrends toenabletheTrilemmaperformanceofindividualcountriestobetracked backtwodecadesto2000.Thenewtime-seriesanalysisprovidesinsights intoacountry’shistoricaltrends,challenges,andopportunitiesforimprovementsinmeetingenergygoalsnowandinthefuture.TheIndexdemonstratestheimpactofthevaryingpolicypathwaysthatcountrieshave takenineachofthedimensionsoverthepast20years.Lookingatthese trendscaninformadialogueonnationalenergypolicytopromotecoherenceandintegrationtoenablebettercalibratedenergysystemsinthe contextoftheglobalenergytransitionchallenge.

TencountriesachievethetopAAAbalancegradeinthe2019World EnergyTrilemmaIndex,representingtopquartileperformanceinevery

dimension.Since2000,nocountrieshaveconsistentlyimprovedin eachdimensioneveryyear.Instead,mostshowhistoricaltrendswitha varietyofpeaksandtroughsinageneralupwarddirection.OverallTrilemmaperformancefor119countriesover20yearshasimproved;only ninecountriessawtheiroverallperformancedecline.TherateofimprovementinoverallTrilemmaperformancealsoincreasedasthetransitionprogressedandencouragedcountriestoimprovetheirenergypolicies (Figures1.2.3 1.2.8).

Finally,somefeaturesthatledtotherankingofthe10statesthatoccupy firstplacesarethat:

• Theyallhavestableeconomicandpoliticalsystems.

• Theyallbarelyhaveconflictswithotherstatesorwithintheirown population.

Figure1.2.4 LatinAmericaandCaribbeanregionTrilemmabalance.

Figure1.2.3 MiddleEastandGulfStateregionTrilemmabalance.

• Theyallhaveahighinvestmentvolumebecauseoftheirknowledgeand insight,andtheconvictionthatRESisessentialforanintact environment.

• Thestateandtherespectivepopulationwereinagreementandstarted thechangeoveratanearlystage(Figure1.2.9)

Figure1.2.7 AfricaregionTrilemmabalance.

Figure1.2.5 EuroperegionTrilemmabalance.

Figure1.2.6 AsiaregionTrilemmabalance.

Figure1.2.8 NorthAmericanregionTrilemmabalance.

Figure1.2.9 (A)WorldTrilemmarankingfor128countries,part1(ranks1 64)2019.(B) WorldTrilemmarankingfor128countries,part2(ranks65 128)2019.