Pawel verneer nazarewicz- building a bankroll achieve long term success

Proven Strategies for Moving Up in Stakes

Playing No Limit Hold’em Online

Pawel “Verneer” Nazarewicz

Foreword by Taylor Caby

First Edition First Printing

February 2012

Mt. Micro Poker Publishing

Athens, Georgia

Copyright Š 2012 by Pawel Nazarewicz All rights reserved. Except as permitted under the U.S. Copyright Act of 1976, no part of this publication may be reproduced, distributed, or transmitted in any form or by any means, or stored in a database or retrieval system, without the prior written permission of the publisher.

Mt. Micro Poker Athens, Georgia Visit our website at www.MtMicroPoker.com.

First Edition: February 2012 SBN-13: 978-0615589886 SBN-10: 061558988X Book and cover design by Lee Przytula.

To Carl

vii

Table of Contents

Foreword Preface Acknowledgements

1

Introduction

2

The Seven Fundamentals Is this Book for You?

Fundamental One: Accept Variance

3

“Brag: No Variance” Understanding Variance Expected Swings Variance and Losing Win Rate

Fundamental Two: Manage Your Bankroll

4

Range of Limits Varying Your Buy-In

Fundamental Three: Develop Reads HUD Stats Convergence Note Taking Basic HUD Setup Initial Reads Basic Player Types Seat Selection

xv

xvii

xix

1

2

3

7

7 1 8 1 9 1 13

17 1

19

20

21

23

24

28 1 33

34

35 1 41

viii

5

Fundamental Four: Play Solid

6

Opening the Betting Opening Bet Sizes Opening Ranges Isolating Limpers Calling a Raise

Three-Betting and Beyond

7

Three-Betting Squeezing Calling a Three-Bet Four-Betting

Playing Versus a Steal

8

Three-Betting Versus a Steal Calling Versus a Steal Blind Versus Blind

Continuation Betting

9

Flop Dynamics 1 Fold Equity 1 To Bet or Not to Bet?

Choosing a Bet Size

Facing a Continuation Bet Evaluating Hand Strength 1 Make the Most Profitable Play 1 Donk Betting 1

45 45 46 47 56 61

65 65 70 74 80

87 92 92 96

97 97 99 101 103

109 109 114 117

ix

10

11

12

13

14

Playing Turns and Rivers Homer Versus Bart Scare Cards and Blank Cards The Art of the Turn The Baluga Theorem Checking for Pot Control Betting for Pot Control The Art of the River Bluff-Catching

Fundamental Five: Play Your A-Game A-Game Tilt Losing Moving Up Goals Entitlement

123

124

130

132

133

134

135 1 136 1 136 1

143

145 1 147 1 150 1 153 1 155 1 157 1

Fundamental Six: Put in the Hours

161

Fundamental Seven: Remain a Student

165

Passive Learning Active Learning Reviewing a Session Total Game Review

Final Thoughts

165 1 166 1 168 1 172 1

185

xi

List of Figures

Figure 1-1. 2011 Challenge results in big blinds

2

Figure 2-1. Vincent “vinivici9586” Wille’s 2009 results in dollars Figure 2-2. 2011 Challenge win rate and standard deviation Figure 2-3. Variance of a 2 bb/100 winner Figure 2-4. Variance of a 5 bb/100 winner Figure 2-5. Variance of a 8 bb/100 winner

8 1 9 1 10

11 1 12 1

Figure 4-1. Classifying basic player types Figure 4-2. Distribution of player types over 42,600 hands Figure 4-3. Distribution of player types over 65,600 hands Figure 4-4. Hold’em Manager stats 15/13 TAG Figure 4-5. Hold’em Manager stats 8/6 nit Figure 4-6. Hold’em Manager stats 15/12 TAG Figure 4-7. 25NL sample table

35 1 37 1 37 1 38 1 39 1 40

43 1

Figure 5-1. Nit pop-up Figure 5-2. LAG pop-up

54 1 55 1

Figure 7-1. Stats when facing a steal from the cutoff or button Figure 7-2. Showdown and non showdown winnings when three-betting Figure 7-3. Stats when three-betting from the blinds Figure 7-4. Showdown and non showdown winnings when calling Figure 7-5. Stats when calling from the blinds Figure 7-6. Showdown and non-showdown winnings when three-betting Figure 7-7. Stats when three-betting Figure 7-8. Showdown and non-showdown winnings Figure 7-9. Stats when calling

88 1 88 1 89 1 89 1 89 1 90 1 90 1 91 1 91 1

Figure 9-1. Position dynamics 1 Figure 9-2. Position dynamics 2 Figure 9-3. Most profitable play flowchart

110 1 111 1 114 1

Figure 10-1. Homer's range flowchart

127 1

xii Figure 11-1. Bell curve performance chart

146 1

Figure 13-1. Hold'em Manager daily report by stakes Figure 13-2. Largest losing pots Figure 13-3. Largest winning pots Figure 13-4. Turn continuation bet possible = true filter Figure 13-5. Hold'em Manager import Figure 13-6. Winnings versus EV winnings Figure 13-7. Showdown winnings versus non-showdown winnings Figure 13-8. HUD import Figure 13-9. Leak-Finding Three-Bet percentage Figure 13-10. Big pots graph Figure 13-11. Hands view column selection Figure 13-12. Winners and losers

168 1 168 1 171 1 171 1 172 1 173 1 173 1 175 1 176 1 179 1 180 1 180 1

xiii

List of Tables

Table 1-1. Is this book for you?

Table 1-2. Approximate HUD stats for regulars

4

5 1

Table 4-1. Player A stats Table 4-2. Player B stats Table 4-3. Player C stats

24

26 1 27 1

Table 5-1. UTG and UTG+1 opening range Table 5-2. MP1 and MP2 opening range Table 5-3. Hijack opening range Table 5-4. Cutoff opening range Table 5-5. Button opening range Table 5-6. Button opening range versus a loose-passive Table 5-7. Button opening range versus a LAG Table 5-8. Small blind opening range Table 5-9. Small blind opening range versus a LAG in the big blind

47 1 48 1 49 1 50 1 50 1 51 1 52 1 53 1 56 1

Table 8-1. Choosing a bet size

103 1

Table 9-1. Respecting a continuation bet

112 1

Table 10-1. Homer's preflop range Table 10-2. Homer's preflop calling range Table 10-3. Homer's flop calling range Table 10-4. Preflop calling range versus a regular heads up Table 10-5. Flop calling range versus a regular heads up Table 10-6. Turn calling range

124 1 125 1 126 1 129 1 130 1 131 1

xv

Foreword As the co-founder of CardRunners and in my time spent playing high stakes poker, I've been in close contact with hundreds of the world's best poker players.

It's been my job to identify talented players who are not only able to beat the game, but more importantly, can articulate their thought process to others in a way that is easy to understand.

It's actually much harder than you might think to find players who have both of these qualities. This is a by-product of what characteristics most winning online poker players share.

Most gifted online poker players are young, introverted, and have very limited experience actually talking to other people about poker. Instead of pursuing poker as a hobby and a means of socializing like most pre-internet players, these players have spent their time playing millions of hands, studying theory and math, and discussing poker in short bursts on forums or on instant messenger with other players of similar skill levels.

This last point should be emphasized. Most successful internet poker players gravitate towards befriending and discussing concepts with other players of similar skills levels. Tom Dwan and Phil Galfond discuss strategy together. Mid stakes grinders regularly participate in discussion about their games and mutual opponents. However, you rarely see exceptional players discussing poker with, or teaching poker to, players who are newer to the game. Most skilled poker players just do not have the desire or the skill set to help newer players become winners at the game.

Pawel is the exception to this trend. Few in the online poker community know this, but before he was a professional poker player, he taught high school math for four years. With a Master's in Education coupled with real world experience teaching students, Pawel is an experienced educator.

He is also an extremely experienced online player. He has played hundreds of thousands of hands of online poker, produced over one hundred educational videos at CardRunners, and has one of the best poker blogs on the internet. This is in addition to the thousands of forum posts that you see from most successful online poker players.

I can't say enough great things about Pawel as a person and his contributions to the CardRunners community. If I could recommend one person to my friends to teach micro and small stakes online poker, it would be him. I am sure you will learn a lot from this book. –Taylor Caby

xvii

Preface Since 2006, I have been helping micro and small stakes players improve their poker game. However, my story begins in 2002 when I graduated from the University of Tennessee with a Bachelor of Science in Mathematics and a minor in psychology. I went on to receive my Master's in Math Education at the University of Georgia.

A few years after graduate school, I stumbled across the game of poker. Like many of you, I was instantly enamoured. I understood early on that poker was a game of skill and I was determined to become the best player I could be.

In 2006, I found myself both teaching at a local high school and beating online poker. The next year CardRunners, a poker instruction website, approached me about becoming a guest pro. By 2008 I had decided to pursue poker full-time.

Fast forward to 2010. While everyone was complaining about how difficult online poker had become, I wanted to prove to myself (and to others) that armed with proper bankroll management, strong work ethic, and solid understanding of game theory, there was still good money to be made.

So beginning 2010 and 2011 with minimal deposits of $100 and of $200 respectively, I started what became known as the Moving Up Through uNL in 201X Challenge. I chronicled my experiences, starting at the micro stakes, moving up in limits, and turning my meager investments into five-figure bankrolls. I documented both of my challenges on TwoPlusTwo.com, sharing my results and my strategies with the readers. This book builds in great detail on the advice from those threads.

Since becoming a CardRunners Pro in 2007, I have produced over 100 training videos geared towards micro and low stakes players. I also maintain a popular blog and have written strategy articles for CardPlayer and Bluff magazines.

I currently live in Athens, Georgia with my wife Katy.

xix

Acknowledgements As you can imagine, writing a book takes a lot of hard work and is far from an independent endeavor. This book could not have happened without the help of others. I would like to thank people chronologically, since all had an instrumental role in making it a reality.

First, I would like to thank Taylor Caby, Andrew Wiggins, and CardRunners for giving me the tools to become a winning poker player. Secondly, I would like to thank Max “RodeoBlue” Uzun and Bill “Zimba” Seibert for the help and the encouragement during my early video-producing days. Max has always been there for me when I needed help with any computer software or hardware. This has proved invaluable over the years.

Thirdly, I would like to thank my wife Katy, my family Krystyna, Witold, and Natalia, and Katy’s parents Christine and Carl for being supportive of my decision to pursue poker full-time.

I would like to thank the countless members of the uNL and Beginner’s forums on TwoPlusTwo as well as CardRunners members for their feedback on early poker articles. The names are too many to list, but I appreciate all of you.

Next, I would like to thank Brian Rue, Matt Doran, Pawel Ulrik, and Mehmet Ogan for discussing poker strategy with me in detail over the years and for forcing me to think more deeply about my own game. I especially appreciate all the work Brian did in discussing, and in helping me select, many of the hand histories in this book. I don’t know if I would have ever finished if I didn’t have him to keep me accountable for progress.

As the book was getting finished, I appreciated all the feedback I got from Andy Kim, Barry Chalmers, Anna Paradox, Gareth Chantler, Cole South, Brian Hastings, and all my students.

I also appreciate Tommy Angelo and Jared Tendler for allowing me to use selected sections from their excellent books. I know the readers will appreciate it as well.

Finally, I am grateful for my opportunity to work with Lee Przytula. Simply stated, Lee is brilliant and has been the brains behind the design and the layout of this book and its accompanying website. I am thankful for all the feedback and the advice he has given me over the years.

O

1 N

E

INTRODUCTION

O

n January 1st of 2011, I deposited $200 in my Full Tilt Poker account and challenged myself to turn it into $10,000. Exactly 100 days later, I met my goal (see figure 1-1). My bankroll had reached five-figures in just 83 actual “playing” days. Ironically, I reached my objective the day before Black Friday.

I wrote this book to serve as a foundation for how this can be replicated, and in some cases, done even faster and better.

Anyone can become a winning poker player. Most don’t. As I listen to students and read the forums, it becomes abundantly clear that most people are focused on the wrong things.

I see hands posted on the forums which show players making river calls with queen-high, or floating with air for two streets, in order to bluff-shove all-in on the river to get a fold. The comments others make when seeing such hands are “sick,” “sexy,” and “OMG!” This mentality is counter-productive if your goals include: 1. Building a bankroll at your current stakes.

2. Moving up in stakes and repeating goal #1.

2 Building a Bankroll

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Chapter 1

Figure 1-1. 2011 Challenge results in big blinds

I want to help you execute the above process by outlining seven fundamentals which are critical to having long-term success in poker. My hope is that this book serves as a springboard to help you make more money at your current limit before moving up to the next one and beyond.

It is important to note that although my play in the 2011 Challenge was strictly at the full ring Rush tables, the lessons in this book carry over to non-Rush games as well as to six-max games.

I have identified seven key areas essential to being a successful long-term winner in poker regardless of stake, site, or format. In this book, I will outline those seven areas while providing many examples from my play at 10NL and at 25NL.

The Seven Fundamentals There is absolutely no reason why any truly motivated person can’t be a longterm winner playing poker. That said, there are plenty of reasons why most people are destined to be long-term losers. Let’s look at what it takes to have long-term success in this game.

1. Accept Variance. Just because you are a good player doesn’t mean you will win over the course of a session, a day, a week, or even a month. Luck plays

Introduction 3 a significant role in poker. It is important to understand that just because you are winning, that doesn’t mean that you are playing well. Conversely, losing doesn’t mean you are playing poorly.

2. Manage Your Bankroll. This is your main line of defense against going broke. If you are losing, bankroll management forces you to eventually drop down in stakes. It is also serves as a motivator for moving up. If you are winning, start taking shots at the next level.

3. Develop Reads. It is important to understand both your HUD and how stats converge. Identify different opponent types and figure out the proper strategy adjustments to make against them at the tables.

4. Play Solid. Know why certain plays will win you money in the long run and why others will not. None of the ideas discussed in this section should come as a major surprise. Yet it is amazing how often I observe seemingly solid players making huge fundamental errors at the tables.

5. Stay on Your A-Game. There is a big difference between knowing the right play and actually making the right play. To be a winning player, you need to control tilt and to play your A-game over long periods of time. For many of you, this will be a work-in-progress.

6. Put in the Hours. Mastery is achieved through experience. There is no substitute for actual work at and away from the tables.

7. Remain a Student. Resist falling into complacency. It happens so easily with poker. Evaluate your game continually, identify which areas give you trouble, and work hard to improve them. Study players that you respect and use their success as motivation.

If you master these seven areas, you will be a winning poker player in the long-term. I realize that is much easier said than done. Still, my goal is to make this process as easy as possible for you.

Is this Book for You? This book is not for everyone (see table 1-1). If you are already crushing medium stakes games at a high level, it is unlikely that this book will offer much additional insight.

I have focused on making the advice in this book simple to comprehend by breaking down the fundamental reasons for taking different actions. I believe

4 Building a Bankroll

Stakes < 100NL

Stakes ≥ 100NL

|

Chapter 1

Win Rate < 2 BB/100

Win Rate ≥ 2 BB/100

Yes. You are my main target audience. You are currently playing lower stakes and not crushing your limit.

Yes. You are cruising at your limit, but haven’t moved up yet.

This book can be the catalyst to help you make the jump.

Yes. You are playing small stakes but clearly have some leaks in your game. This book could help you refocus on the fundamentals of winning poker.

Probably Not. You are already playing small stakes or higher.

You are likely already familiar with most of the information in this book.

Table 1-1. Is this book for you?

that simple building blocks are important for developing poker players and that a strong foundation is paramount for success.

That said, this book doesn’t cover everything. Poker is a very complicated game. It would be impossible to cover all the different plays and all the different scenarios that a player might face over the course of a million hands. Nonetheless, I have included what I believe are the most common and the most important situations.

Finally, the chapter about playing your A-game was taken directly from books I have read and conversations I have had with Tommy Angelo and Jared Tendler.

They are the undisputed authorities on the mental side of poker. Both offer a common sense approach to the mental game and explain their concepts in ways that are easily grasped.

Why is this Book Called “Full Ring Edition”?

I loved the full ring Rush poker games and was able to four-table them with relative ease. Thus, I based my 2011 Challenge around them. I also felt, and still do, that full ring is a better starting place for someone looking to methodically build their bankroll.

What Value does this Book Offer a Six-Max Player?

A lot. I would say that 98% of the advice in this book is relevant to six-max players. In the end, poker is poker. Fundamentally, it is still a game about making reads and making plays based on those reads. Bankroll management is the same. Focusing on your A-game is the same. Reviewing your sessions

Introduction 5 is the same. Knowing when to bet and when to give up based on constructed ranges is universal across both formats.

So what are the main differences between full ring and six-max?

There are three more seats to account for. Good players tend to open strong ranges preflop from those seats and that affects how hands play out postflop.

There are more multi-way situations postflop which makes overall ranges stronger. Many hands which would be considered coolers at six-max (like set-over-set or low flush versus higher flush) arenâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;t automatically coolers at full ring.

HUD stats are different. Table 1-2 displays the rough equivalents for regulars in terms of VPIP, Preflop Raise, and Three-Bet. Nit

TAG

LAG

Full Ring

9/6/2

13/11/4

19/16/7

Six-Max

16/14/3

22/18/5

30/25/10

Table 1-2. Approximate HUD stats for regulars

This also means that postflop stats are different. A c-bet percentage of around 55% to 60% is standard for full ring regulars but is closer to 70% in six-max. Other stats vary slightly as well.

What Value does this Book Offer a Heads Up Player?

I would not recommend this book to someone who wanted to learn heads up play. Facing a single opponent at the poker table creates a completely different dynamic that is worlds apart from full ring and six-max.

T

2

W

O

FUNDAMENTAL ONE:

ACCEPT VARIANCE

T

he roller coaster of short-term upswings and downswings that you often experience in your daily sessions is as much a part of poker as betting, raising, and folding. There is a good reason why I’m starting this book with a discussion of variance.

Understanding and accepting swings as a normal aspect of poker is important for any winning player. This understanding will serve as the foundation for discussing bankroll management in the next section.

“Brag: No Variance” On December 29, 2009, Vincent “vinivici9586” Wille1 posted his 2009 results on 1 TwoPlusTwo.com in the Beats, Brags, and Variance forum (figure 2-1). The title

of his post was Brag: No Variance. He followed it up with the tongue-in-cheek comment, “I hate losing, so I try and do it as little as possible.” Vinivici is a highly respected small stakes full ring player on PokerStars. He is known as being creative, consistent, and tough. He is definitely a shark at the tables.

1

Check out Vincent’s blog on his site VinceWille.com

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Chapter 2

Figure 2-1. Vincent “vinivici9586” Wille’s 2009 results in dollars

So how much variance did he experience in that period of “no variance”? The numbers along the axes aren’t all that important though they are impressive (he won more than $155,000 over 2.5 million hands in addition to the $115,000 for achieving SuperNova Elite). What I want you to focus on is the overall shape of the graph. Any poker player would love to have a graph that looks similar!

It appears like he truly experienced “no variance.”

The two main indicators of variance a winning player looks at are downswings and break-even stretches. So how did Vinivici do in terms of these metrics?

In 2009, Vinivici’s largest downswing was around 20 buy-ins and his longest break-even stretch was about 100,000 hands. You wouldn’t think so just from looking at his graph though.

Understanding Variance How would you feel if you went on a 20 buy-in downswing? Would you begin to question your game? Would you feel like you were a bad player? While you could very well be a losing player, your results could also be a function of variance.

In the rest of this chapter, I’ll address the following questions.

What type of swings should you expect?

Fundamental One: Accept Variance 9 If you are currently losing, is it because of normal, acceptable variance or is it because you are a long-term losing player with fundamental leaks in your game?

How many hands do you need to play at a particular level before you can calculate a true win rate?

Before getting started, I want to emphasize an important point: The higher your win rate is at a given level, the less likely you are to experience a large downswing or a long break-even stretch.

With that in mind, Iâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;ll examine each of the three questions more closely.

Expected Swings In this section I am using the Poker Variance Simulator freely available at evplusplus.com. My parameters will be a 40,000 hand sample over 1,000 trials (the maximum allowed) with a standard deviation of 55. The one variable that will change is win rate.

I chose 40,000 hands because that is the number I averaged per month throughout my 2011 Challenge. I chose a standard deviation of 55 based on my own sample during that time.

Figure 2-2. 2011 Challenge win rate and standard deviation

As a point of reference, take a look at my win rate and the standard deviation (see figure 2-2). The results in this hand sample cover 10NL and 25NL and were provided from my Holdâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;em Manager software database.

Iâ&#x20AC;&#x2DC;m going to focus on three theoretical players: A 2 bb/100 winner (marginal) A 5 bb/100 winner (solid) A 8 bb/100 winner (crushing)

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Chapter 2

I want to figure out what kind of variance these players should expect over a 40,000 hand sample.

It is important to note that the graphs produced in the next few pages are not unique. If you use my exact parameters, you should expect very similar results.

However, the key points I am trying to illustrate should translate regardless of the numbers you use.

Variance of a 2 bb/100 Winner Figure 2-3 displays the results from the variance simulator and what it predicts to be the frequency of possible downswings from this player.

FREQUENCY

1.2

1.0

Largest Downswing = 3,105bb

0.8

w.r. = 2.00bb/100 sd = 55.00bb/100 nhand = 40,000 nruns = 1,000

0.6

0.4

0.2

0

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

3000

3500

SIZE OF BIGGEST DOWNSWING (bb) Figure 2-3. Variance of a 2 bb/100 winner

As the graph shows, over a 40,000 hand sample, a 2 bb/100 playerâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s largest possible downswing is just over 31 buy-ins. Additionally: There is an 80% chance this player will experience a 7 buy-in downswing.

There is a 50% chance this player will experience a 9 buy-in downswing.

There is a 20% chance this player will experience a 13 buy-in downswing.

Fundamental One: Accept Variance 11 The longest possible break-even stretch is right around 40,000 hands2. Moreover, there is a 50% chance that this player will have an 18,000 hand break-even stretch as well. So this marginal winner is as likely as he is unlikely to experience a fairly significant break-even stretch.

Variance of a 5 bb/100 Winner A 5 bb/100 winner (figure 2-4) is a step up from the last player. This also happens to be the win rate closest to what I averaged at the 10NL and the 25NL levels.

FREQUENCY

1.2

1.0

Largest Downswing = 2,011bb

0.8

w.r. = 5.00bb/100 sd = 55.00bb/100 nhand = 40,000 nruns = 1,000

0.6

0.4

0.2

0

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

SIZE OF BIGGEST DOWNSWING (bb) Figure 2-4. Variance of a 5 bb/100 winner

Interestingly, the largest possible downswing for this player decreases to around 20 buy-ins. This is a big improvement. The sizes of possible downswings are also slightly better.

There is an 80% chance this player will experience a 5.5 buy-in downswing.

There is a 50% chance this player will experience a 7 buy-in downswing.

There is a 20% chance this player will experience a 10 buy-in downswing.

2

Evplusplus.com generated the graph with this information, but for the sake of space, it wasnâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;t included.

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Chapter 2

Even with a 5 bb/100 win rate, the longest possible break-even stretch is still right around 40,000 hands. However, now there is a 50% chance that the longest break-even stretch will stay under 12,000 hands.

Variance of an 8 bb/100 Winner Finally, look at a player who crushes the games with a high win rate (figure 2-5).

1.0

Largest Downswing = 1,950bb

FREQUENCY

0.8

w.r. = 8.00bb/100 sd = 55.00bb/100 nhand = 40,000 nruns = 1,000

0.6

0.4

0.2

0 200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

1600

1800

2000

SIZE OF BIGGEST DOWNSWING (bb) Figure 2-5. Variance of a 8 bb/100 winner

Even for this player, his largest statistically possible downswing is around 20 buy-ins. The frequencies are better though.

There is an 80% chance this player will experience a 4.5 buy-in downswing.

There is a 50% chance this player will experience a 6 buy-in downswing.

There is a 20% chance this player will experience an 8 buy-in downswing.

His largest possible break-even stretch is right around 39,000 hands. However, now there is a 50% chance that his longest break-even stretch will be a mere 7,500 hands.

Fundamental One: Accept Variance 13

Past or Theoretical Win Rate Doesn’t Guarantee Results There are two key points to take away from the three examples.

1. The worst case scenario for all three players—the marginal winner, the solid winner, and the crusher—was similar: a downswing of more than 20 buy-ins and a 40,000 hand break-even stretch.

2. A high win rate does lower the possibility of a large downswing or a long break-even stretch. So one of the best ways to protect against possible variance is to improve your win rate. This is also one of the key arguments for playing fewer tables. It will give you more time to make decisions and it will almost always increase your win rate.

Now that I have established that even the best players can experience long break-even stretches and big downswings, I want to discuss how to tell if the downswing or the break-even stretch you are experiencing is within normal variance for a winning player or is the result of bad play.

Variance and Losing So how can you tell if you are a losing player or an unlucky player? There are a couple of basic metrics you can use to begin to answer that question: 1. Examine Large Pots. Filter for large pots (80+ big blind) that you have lost and classify them under these three categories: A. Bad Play. Based on all available information, you overplayed or misplayed the hand.

B. Bad Luck. You played the hand optimally. You simply ran into the top of your opponent’s range.

C. Bad Beat. You got it in good but lost.

If most of the large pots that you lose are due to bad luck or to bad beats, that’s variance. If most of the pots are due to bad play, then you have some leaks in your game that you need to work on. The more you play, the more you will be able to identify which hands fall into which category. I’ll provide some examples over the next few pages which highlight these three areas.

Conversely, you should also look at your winners the same way. Are you winning most of your big pots by playing well, coolering people, or sucking out?

14 Building a Bankroll

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Chapter 2

2. Examine Basic Tendencies. You can look at your overall stats and see if you are playing the basic winning poker style that I discuss in chapter 5, Play Solid. If you are consistently making mistakes in one or more of the areas that I emphasize in that chapter, then make the necessary corrections.

3. Examine Actual Results Versus EV Results. As a good starting point, if you are losing money but running significantly under expected value, then you shouldn’t make any major changes to your game. Just continue to grind and wait for variance to even out.

Here are some actual hand examples from my 2011 Challenge that can be classified under bad play, bad luck, or bad beat.

Hand One Stakes: 25NL Relevant Stack Sizes and Initial Reads:

Hero ($34.09) is UTG +1

Villain

($22.76) is an unknown

Action: I raise K♥K♠

to $0.85 from UTG +1. Villain flat calls from MP1 and everyone else folds.

The flop comes 8♣ 5♦ 2♣. I bet $1.50 into $2.05 and get raised to $6.55. I move all-in for $33.24 and get called.

The board runs out 8♣ 5♦ 2♣ 7♦ A♠. Villain shows A♦8♥ and wins the $45.87 pot with his two-pair.

Analysis: My opponent is a complete unknown who started the hand with 91 big blinds. On this draw-heavy flop, I perceive his huge raise as a draw that is trying to get me to fold. I also often see this type of play from weaker players with 99 – QQ or even with top pair.

I decide that there are plenty of worse hands he would raise here both for value and as a semi-bluff. Being out of position, I decide to shove. He gets there with his ~22% equity.

I classify this as a bad beat.

Fundamental One: Accept Variance 15

Hand Two Stakes: 25NL Relevant Stack Sizes and Initial Reads: UTG

($10.18)

UTG+1 MP1

($69.88)

($13.30)

Villain

($27.01) is in the CO and playing 15/11 over 219 hands

Hero ($26.27) is in the BB

Action: UTG, UTG+1, and MP1 all limp for $0.25. The CO raises to $1.60 and I three-bet to $4.75 with A♣ A♠. All the limpers fold and the villain calls.

The flop comes J♥ 4♦ 2♥. I c-bet $5.00 into $10.35 and get a call. The turn is the 4♣. I bet $6.00 into $20.35 and the villain calls again.

The river is the K♣. I shove $10.52 into $32.35 and my opponent calls with K♥ K♠. He wins the $53.34 pot with a full house.

Analysis: This player seems to be a looser regular. Post flop I bet small using all three streets to get the money in and to perhaps induce a shove at some point. He ended up rivering a two-outer. Nevertheless, I am confident that the results would have been the same had I bet bigger on the flop or on the turn.

Bad beats aren’t always reflected in your expected value results. Even though I got it in with no equity, I still classify this as a bad beat.

Hand Three

Stakes: 10NL Relevant Stack Sizes and Initial Reads: MP1

($9.59)

Hero ($29.88)

Villain ($27.41) is in the BB and is playing 26/20 over 232 hands with a 50%

Fold to C-Bet over a sample size of 8

Action: MP1 limps and I isolate from the SB to $0.40 with A♠ Q♦. The BB and MP1 both call. The flop comes Q♣ 6♠ 5♥. I c-bet $0.80 into $1.20. The BB calls and MP1 folds. The turn brings the 4♣ and I bet $1.60 into $2.80. The villain raises to $3.80 and I call.

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The river is the J♥ and I check. My opponent bets $4.10 into $10.80 and I call only to see him show down 6♣ 6♦ for a flopped set. He takes down the $19.00 pot.

Analysis: This villain is definitely a LAG but I have no reason to believe he gets out of line post flop. On the turn, there are a number of value hands he could have which crush me. Specifically 66, 55, and gutshots that got there (73, 78, 23). His play is consistent with all those hands. The turn should be a standard bet-fold.

I classify this as a bad play.

Hand Four

Stakes: 10NL Relevant Stack Sizes and Initial Reads: Villain MP1

($9.36) is UTG+1 and is playing 36/9 over 11 hands

($12.53) is playing 11/9 over 256 hands

Hero ($13.07) is in the BB

Action: UTG+1 limps, MP1 isolates to $0.40, and I flat call with K♦ K♥ from the BB. UTG+1 then three-bets to $1.65. MP1 calls $1.25 and I shove all-in with my kings. UTG+1 calls and MP1 folds.

Once the cards are flipped over, I see UTG+1 table A♥ A♦. The board runs out T♥ T♣ 9♥ 4♠ 2♥ and he scoops the $20.52 pot.

Analysis: Three-betting preflop would be completely standard but I decided to play it a little tricky based on UTG+1’s relatively fishy stats and on MP1’s very tight stats. Still, being out of position, I think three-betting here is better than flatting.

Once UTG+1 decides to limp-raise and the solid villain in MP1 just flats, I don’t give MP1 credit for aces. I think with aces he would likely want to re-isolate to avoid seeing a flop three-handed and getting sucked out on. UTG+1 could have a very wide range of 88+, AQ+, and who knows what else. These types of players are capable of getting it in with all sorts of odd hands in this spot by convincing themselves it’s for value.

I shove and run into aces. Kings versus aces isn’t automatically a cooler as we will see in the next example. However, in this hand it was. I definitely classify this example as bad luck.

Fundamental One: Accept Variance 17

Hand Five Stakes: 10NL Relevant Stack Sizes and Initial Reads: UTG+1 MP1

($4.00) is 10/7 over 220 hands

($12.44) is 29/14 over 82 hands

Hero ($10.00) is in the CO

Villain

($14.02) is in the BB and is playing 10/6 with a 1% three-bet over 425 hands

Action: UTG+1 raises to $0.40, MP1 calls, and I three-bet to $1.40 with K♣K♠.

It folds around to the BB who makes it $3.80. Both UTG+1 and MP1 fold. I move all-in for $10.00 and the BB calls with A♥ A♦. The board runs out with low cards and the villain scoops the $20.85 pot.

Analysis: Preflop, I decide to squeeze the loose, passive player with the shortstacker opening. When the Big Blind puts in a committing four-bet with three players still left to act, his hand is incredibly strong.

Seeing as he has three-bet just 1% over a significant sample size, I have to assign him a very tight range (AKs , KK, AA). Versus that range, my kings are a 2:1 dog and I should just fold.

I definitely think I overplayed my kings in this example. I classify this hand as a bad play.

Win Rate How many hands of poker do you need to play before you can accurately gauge your win rate? There is no good answer for this. To be honest, most discussions of specific win rates are fairly academic.

Your game should always be evolving, so it is unlikely that you are the same player that you were 100,000 hands ago. Thus, whatever win rate you have over the last x number of hands is a reflection of the poker player you were, not of the poker player you are.

Just focus on honestly identifying areas in your game that need work and actively working to improve them.

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That said, if you have a fairly consistent slope in your graph over 250,000+ hands, you are doing something right and it is likely that the trend (and thus win rate), will continue.

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FUNDAMENTAL TWO:

MANAGE YOUR BANKROLL

B

ankroll management is the easiest of the seven fundamentals to control, and thus, the easiest to master. To be successful, most players first need to be introduced to some guidelines. Here is the basic model.

Start with at least 20 buy-ins at a limit lower than the one you think you can beat.

Move up and take shots when your bankroll grows by a fixed number of buy-ins. This can come from a combination of table winnings, rakeback, and bonuses.

Move down if you lose a fixed number of buy-ins.

Have the discipline to follow through with your plan.

In many ways, it really is that simple. Here is how I managed my bankroll during my 2011 Challenge. The totals include table winnings, rakeback, and bonuses.

I started with $200 (20 buy-ins) at 10NL. I spent 46 hours and 47,557 hands at this level.

Once I reached $500 (20 buy-ins), I started playing 25NL. I spent 60 hours and 65,617 hands at this level. I was prepared to take a 5 buy-in shot at this level.

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Once I reached $1,500 (30 buy-ins), I started playing 50NL. I spent 67 hours and 70,827 hands at this level. I was prepared to take a 7 buy-in shot at this level.

Once I reached $4,000 (40 buy-ins), I started playing 100NL. I spent 97 hours and 99,101 hands at this level. I was prepared to take a 10 buy-in shot at this level.

As I moved up in stakes, I fully expected my win rate to decrease and my variance to increase. So on my way up I braced for the swings by requiring a larger number of initial buy-ins. I also allowed myself a larger number of buy-ins for my shot-taking. This was my bankroll safety net and it served me well.

Feel free to follow my model or to modify it to suit your needs. Whatâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s important is to have a plan in place for both moving up and moving down and to actually use it.

For those who wish to cash out, simply account for your cash out amount and adjust your plan accordingly.

Range of Limits During my challenge, I played all my hands at one limit before moving up to the next level. In the past however, I have kept my options open and have played a range of limits. I would base my decision on what kind of games were running, where I perceived the fish to be playing, and how I was feeling.

There are plenty of heads up players who sit at tables ranging from 200NL to 2000NL across different sites, waiting to see what kind of action they get.

Sometimes they will be playing on a 200NL table on PokerStars and a 1000NL table on Party Poker.

This works both for full ring and for six-max. If your range of limits is 50NL through 200NL and there are few 200NL games running, you could sit at one 200NL table, two 100NL tables, and three 50NL tables.

If you play on sites which donâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;t run many games, this is particularly applicable.

If you play on PokerStars, the liquidity of games is seldom an issue. On the other hand, if you are playing on the Merge network, liquidity can definitely become an issue. Further, different times of the day offer a higher percentage of weaker players and thus an incentive to play higher. That is assuming your bankroll allows for it of course.

Fundamental Two: Manage Your Bankroll 21 An added benefit of playing a variety of limits is that you shed any “I’m a ___NL player” labels. This is a positive since labels have the potential to consciously or to subconsciously limit your full potential. For example, if you have a range of limits from 25NL to 100NL and you lose a few buy-ins at 100NL, you won’t suffer the sting of feeling like you “took a shot” and failed. You simply didn’t have a good session at the upper-end of what you are able to play.

Varying Your Buy-In Another way to manage your bankroll is by adjusting your buy-in amount. This works especially well when you are moving up to a new limit. A $1,000 bankroll at 25NL equals 40 buy-ins. If you move up to 50NL and buy in with the standard 100 big blinds, you will have 20 buy-ins for that limit. Another option is to buy in for 75 big blinds. There are multiple advantages to this.

You limit your risk. Losing $37.50 is a lot easier psychologically than losing $50 when you are still in a 25NL mindset. There is often a necessary adjustment period to acclimate yourself with winning and losing bigger pots. Lowering your buy-in amount eases the process.

When you buy in for 75 big blinds at 50NL with a $1,000 bankroll, you instantly find yourself with around 27 buy-ins instead of the 20 that the standard 100 big blinds would afford you.

You start accumulating hands and notes on players at the next limit. You realize that the regulars at the next limit aren’t much tougher and that the fish can be just as bad.

You earn rakeback or VPPs at the same rate that you would if you were buying in for the full amount.

Your postflop decisions become easier due to a lower stack-to-pot ratio. As a result, you will face fewer difficult river decisions, which is good when you are playing a new limit with few reads.

If you do happen to find yourself at a particularly juicy table with some fish sitting deep-stacked, go ahead and top off your stack. Remember, you can always add to your stack but you can’t take money off the table.

One of my friends was having a hard time moving up from 25NL to 50NL. He was doing very well at 25NL but was breaking even at 50NL. I checked his stats and noticed he was playing much more passively and fit-or-fold at 50NL. After studying his database a bit more, we figured out that he had solid reads on the

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25NL regulars and versus them could navigate marginal situations with more confidence. But he lacked those reads at 50NL. Moreover, he was not used to losing a $50 stack. This affected him mentally and resulted in him playing passive and scared.

The combination of those two facts made him the perfect candidate for a smaller buy-in. Making that adjustment allowed him to play with more confidence.

Within just a few weeks he was playing his normal game at 50NL with 100 big blinds.

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FUNDAMENTAL THREE:

DEVELOP READS

G

ood reads bring clarity to otherwise marginal situations. Making good reads and acting on them is a characteristic of all great players. In this section, Iâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;ll elaborate on the following:

How quickly do HUD stats converge?

What types of notes should you take?

What stats should you have on your HUD? How to make quick initial reads on unknown players.

How to classify basic player types.

I debated whether the next chapter, Play Solid, should precede this one. But after much thought, I decided that a major component of solid play is being able to develop reads and to make plays based on them. Very few hands are played in a true vacuum and treating the strategy in the next chapter that way would be intellectually dishonest.

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HUD Stats Convergence You will be able to make better decisions against a player the more hands you have on them. In this section, I picked out three players and analyzed how their stats converged as the number of hands I collected on them increased.

I would like you to study the different players and to think about what you can deduce from their stats after 20, 50, 100, 200, 400, 800, and 1500 hands. I will finish each example with some basic strategies for dealing with each player.

Player A I played a total of 395 hands versus this opponent. Table 4-1 represents a snapshot of his stats as they evolved.

Hands

20

50

100

200

395

VPIP

21%

16%

24%

27%

30%

PFR

21%

14%

14%

12%

13%

AF

-

0.5

0.9

0.7

1

3B

0% (5)

0% (13)

0% (34)

0% (72)

0%

Fold 3B

-

0% (1)

50% (2)

25% (4)

27% (11)

Steal

100% (2)

57% (7)

57% (14)

53% (17)

49% (39)

Flop C-Bet

-

100% (1)

40% (5)

55% (11)

63% (19)

Turn C-Bet

-

0% (1)

50% (2)

50% (2)

75% (4)

Fold Flop C-Bet -

100% (1)

25% (4)

44% (18)

50% (32)

Fold Turn C-Bet -

-

50% (2)

33% (6)

38% (8)

Hands @ SD

2

6

13

24

0

Table 4-1. Player A stats

What can you infer from Player Aâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s stats?

After 20 hands, the only thing you can see is that the player has been semi-active.

After 50 hands, he is beginning to seem like a TAG. He steals frequently, but doesnâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;t seem aggressive postflop. In terms of his flop and his turn play, you are still in the dark.

Fundamental Three: Develop Reads 25 After 100 hands, a gap is forming between his VPIP and his Preflop Raise.

He still seems passive as evidenced by his low Aggression Factor (0.9) and his low Flop C-Bet (40%).

After 200 hands, it is becoming clear that this player is loose and passive.

He steals frequently and likes to see flops. This is demonstrated by his high VPIP and his low Fold to Three-Bet. After 395 hands, what you saw after 200 hands is confirmed.

How should you approach this player?

Don’t three-bet him light (with hands like T9s). He likes to call three-bets and has a standard Fold to Flop C-Bet percentage. You can however three-bet him with a wider value range, such as KQ+, KJs+, AJ+, and TT+. Get value if you hit and give up if you completely miss. A good example of giving up is not c-betting 9♥ 5♠ 4♥ with A♦ J♣.

If he ever raises you, especially on the turn or river, watch out. Passive players usually raise with a very nutted range.

Review his hands that went to showdown—all 24 of them. These are gold nuggets that will tell you much more about his tendencies than his stats alone.

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Player B I logged 570 hands with this player. Here are his stats (table 4-2).

Hands

20

50

100

200

400

570

VPIP

0%

2%

5%

8%

8%

7%

PFR

0%

0%

3%

6%

5%

5%

AF

-

inf

inf

inf

5.7

4

3B

0% (8)

0% (24)

2% (42)

3% (72)

4%

3%

Fold 3B

-

-

100% (1)

67% (3)

67% (3)

50% (4)

Steal

0% (2)

0% (2)

0% (9)

0% (15)

6% (35)

10% (48)

Flop C-Bet

-

-

-

100% (3)

100% (5)

100% (11)

Turn C-Bet

-

-

-

0% (1)

0% (1)

0% (1)

Fold Flop C-Bet

-

-

-

100% (1)

50% (2)

50% (4)

Fold Turn C-Bet

-

-

-

-

-

0% (1)

Hands @ SD

0

0

0

1

3

3

Table 4-2. Player B stats

What can you infer from Player Bâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s stats?

After 20 hands he is yet to play a hand.

After 50 hands, he has only entered a pot once. At this point, you can assume that this player is likely a nit.

After 400 hands, you can see that Player B is very aggressive and has c-bet every time he has seen the flop. Since he is playing such a tight range preflop, you can expect him to have strong hands on many flops. Thus his high Flop C-Bet percentage isnâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;t necessarily out of line.

After 570 hands, your suspicions are further confirmed by what you already knew after 400 hands.

How do you approach this player?

In general, avoid playing marginal hands that are likely to be dominated, like KJ or AT, when he opens. He seldom steals and plays a tight range that consists of mostly premium hands.

Fundamental Three: Develop Reads 27 Set mine versus his opens. You are very likely to get paid off if you hit your set.

Steal relentlessly whenever he is in the blinds. If he is on your direct left, open anything from the cutoff that you would ordinarily open from the button. You should also steal 100% of the time in SB versus BB situations.

Player C Table 4-3 shows the most hands for this player.

Hands

20

50

100

200

400

800

1500

VPIP

20%

16%

15%

13%

14%

12%

12%

PFR

14%

14%

13%

10%

12%

10%

10%

AF

0

1

0.7

1.3

0.9

1.1

1.7

3B

0% (7)

0% (17)

3% (38)

1% (79)

3%

2%

2%

Fold 3B

-

-

100% (1) 100% (2) 75% (4)

78% (9)

88% (24)

Steal

67% (3)

67% (3)

50% (8)

32% (22) 31% (48) 28% (81) 28%

Flop C-Bet

-

50% (2)

67% (3)

60% (5)

38% (16) 40% (25) 46% (48)

Turn C-Bet

-

-

-

-

0% (1)

0% (1)

Fold Flop C-Bet

0% (1)

0% (1)

0% (2)

0% (2)

0% (4)

40% (10) 40% (15)

Fold Turn C-Bet

-

-

0% (1)

0% (1)

0% (2)

0% (2)

0% (3)

Hands @ SD

1

1

2

4

9

13

24

33% (6)

Table 4-3. Player C stats

What can you infer from Player Câ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s stats?

After 20 hands, you can doubt that this player will be a nit like Player B. After 200 hands, his VPIP and his Preflop Raise are what you would expect from a typical full ring TAG. He does have a very low three-bet percentage, but everything else is standard.

After 400 hands, you can see that his AF is fairly low (as is his Flop C-Bet).

He seems tight preflop, but generally passive and cautious postflop.

After 1500 hands, the low Three-Bet percentage is confirmed. You now see that Player C has a very high Fold to Three-Bet and a lower Flop C-Bet

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(standard TAG is around 55%). His Fold to C-Bet is also on the low end (average for a TAG is around 50%).

How do you approach this player?

This is a perfect candidate for light three-betting due to his high Fold to Three-bet. Versus his opens, also consider flatting strong hands like AK, QQ+.

Set mine versus his three-bets in position with good odds (~15:1) due to his low Three-Bet percentage (standard is around 4%). Since his three-betting range is strong, it is likely that you’ll get paid if you hit.

His Fold to C-Bet is very low and he is yet to fold to a double barrel in the small sample size we have on him. So be selective in your c-betting postflop.

If he calls and you don’t improve on the turn, do not barrel him with air.

How Many Hands do You Need?

When analyzing stats, you should start to get a general idea of a player’s VPIP, Preflop Raise, and Three-Bet after about 200 hands. Their postflop stats will converge at a rate which corresponds to the player’s VPIP. Compared to a LAG or a loose-passive player, you will need a lot more hands on a nit to know how often he c-bets postflop.

It is important to examine the stats in the context of everything else you know. A stat by itself isn’t very useful. For example, after 400 hands Player B has a Flop C-Bet of 100%. It is important to note just how tight this player is playing. It wouldn’t surprise me if he actually had a hand almost every time he had made a c-bet. Also, the sample size for his postflop play as the preflop raiser is only five. Such few hands does not provide nearly enough information to draw any definite conclusions.

If you really want to develop specific reads on a particular opponent, go over the hands that they take to showdown. The combination of their showdown hands and their HUD stats should start to paint a clear picture of a player.

Note Taking Note taking is essential if you want the ability to make specific reads on an opponent. However, writing out hands takes time and can be very distracting when trying to multi-table. Therefore, it is important to develop a shorthand system for taking notes that works for you.

Fundamental Three: Develop Reads 29 Here are a few common abbreviations that I use: x/c = check-call x/r = check-raise x/f = check-fold MinR = minraise PSB = pot-sized bet CRAI = check-raise all-in

What Types of Notes Should You Take?

Here are three key points to keep in mind when taking a note: 1. Your note should be both factual and detailed.

Bad note: “Calls down light” Better note: “C Ad6d in BB to MP1 open from TAG. x/c Js 8c 6h F. x/c 5d T. Qd R—x/x” 2. Don’t include information in the note that your HUD will tell you.

Bad note: “Very loose preflop” 3. Take note of hands which stand out from what you would consider standard.

This note is basically worthless.

Bad note: “3B KK from SB vs. loose BTN open, 5B AI over a 4B”

This play seems to be 100% standard and won’t help you navigate marginal 1 spots versus this villain. On the other hand, this note is much more useful.

Good note: “Min3B AsJd from SB vs. BTN open, fired PSB on 9s 7h 5h. Bet 3/4 PSB on 4d T, x 4c R.” This provides good insight in the opponent’s playing style. I now know that this player, as the preflop raiser, is capable of firing large barrels with air with no regard for flop texture. I also know that he is unlikely to pull the trigger on the river. Therefore, I should be ready to call down light on flops and on turns if I ever decide to take a stand. If he does bet the river however, I need to be wary.

Next I will analyze some hands from each of the three players that went to showdown.

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Hand One: Loose-Passive (Player A)

Stakes: 100NL Relevant Stack Sizes: MP2

($158)

Player A ($100) in MP3

BTN

($70)

Action: MP2 minraises to $2.00, Player A calls from MP3, the BTN calls, and the blinds both fold.

The flop comes A♦ 9♠ 3♠ and MP2 bets pot ($7.50). Player A calls and the BTN folds. The turn brings the K♦ and MP2 fires again, this time $5.00 into $22.50.

Player A calls again.

The Q♠ on the river completes the flush and MP2 bets $10 into $32.50. Player A minraises to $20 and MP2 calls. Player A shows 6♠ T♠ for the rivered flush to take the $72.50 pot. MP2 mucks A♥ T♣.

My Note: C T6s MP2 to min MP1 open. C PSB on Ad 9s 3s w BTN left. C 1/4 PSB on Kd. MinR 1/3 PSB on Qs R. What it Tells Me: This villain plays draws passively. A small raise on a later street likely means he is very strong. He will also play a wide range preflop, hoping to hit.

How to Exploit: If I hit a big hand, I should fire a pot-sized bet on the flop and on the turn. With medium strength hands, I can just bet out one-third pot or smaller and fold to aggression—even small aggression when a draw completes.

Hand Two: Loose-Passive (Player A) Stakes: 100NL Relevant Stack Sizes:

Player A ($293.25) in UTG+1

MP3

($216.60)

BTN

($34.60)

Action: Player A in UTG+1 raises to $3.00, MP3 calls, and the BTN raises to $9.00.

Both Player A and MP3 call the $6.00 three-bet.

Fundamental Three: Develop Reads 31 The flop comes A♦ 4♥ 4♣. Player A checks, MP3 bets pot ($28.50), the BTN calls off his remaining $25.60, and Player A calls. The turn brings the 8♥. With $111.10 in the pot, Player A checks and MP3 checks behind.

The J♠ comes on the river and both players check again. MP3 scoops the pot with A♥ Q♥. His queen outkicks Player A’s A♣ T♠ . The BTN mucks K♣ K♦.

My Note: R/C ATo from UTG+1 to MP1 C and BTN SQZ. x/c PSB MP1 & BTN C A44r. 8h T & Js R x/x.

What it Tells Me: This player opens loosely, likes to see flops, and doesn’t fold if he hits a piece of the board.

How to Exploit: This further confirms my conclusions in the analysis of hand one. A good strategy versus this opponent is to fire pot-sized bets if you hit your hand and to go for big value.

Hand Three: The Nit (Player B)

Stakes: 100NL Relevant Stack Sizes: CO

($18.70)

Player B ($100.50) on the BTN

Action: The CO raises to $3.00 and Player B calls on the BTN. The blinds fold.

The flop comes Q♣ 4♠ 4♥. With $7.50 in the pot, the CO checks and calls a $3.00 bet from Player B. The turn brings the 4♦ and the CO checks and calls again, this time a $7.00 bet into $13.50. The river brings the 6♥. The CO pushes his remaining $ 5.70 into the pot of $27.50 and Player B calls.

The CO shows 9♦ 9♣ for nines-full and Player B mucks 8♣ 8♦with a smaller full house. The CO scoops the $38.90 pot.

My Note: C 88 OTB vs. SS CO. B < 1/2 PSB on 4Q4r when x to. Bet small on 4 T. C $6 -> $27 on 6 R. What it Tells Me: Even against a short-stacker, this opponent doesn’t want to gamble preflop. He will put out little blocker bets if he thinks he has the best hand and will call down if he thinks a particular line doesn’t make sense.

On the other hand, this hand was played versus a short-stacker. People tend to play differently versus short-stacked players and thus this hand might not offer much insight into how Player B will play against a fully-stacked opponent.

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How to Exploit: This type of villain likes controlling the size of the pot. This is affirmed by a quick look at some of his other hands where he likes to minraise preflop and to bet small on flops.

He also seems like a player who is willing to call down with hands that are bluff-catchers. So while bluffing him is a bad idea, be willing to fire rivers against him for thin value.

Hand Four: The Regular (Player C)

Stakes: 100NL Relevant Stack Sizes:

Player C ($223.15) is in MP1

CO

($301.25)

BB

($358.85)

Action: Player C in MP1 raises to $3.00, the CO calls, and the BB calls. The flop comes K♦ 6♦ 6♣ and everyone checks. The turn is the 7♦ and the BB leads for $4.50 into $9.50. Player C calls and the CO folds.

The river is the 8♦ and both players check. The BB shows K♠T♦

and takes the $17.60 pot with a flush. MP1 mucks T♥ T♠.

My Note: Didn’t c-bet ThTs on Kd6d6c after PFR into 2 regs OOP. C 1/2 PSB lead on 7d T from BB, 8d R – x/x.

What it Tells Me: His range for betting the flop multi-way will be polarized between air and top pair with top kicker or better. He likes to pot control by checking so if he ever starts barreling, watch out. He won’t turn made hands into bluffs, but he is willing to call down with bluff-catchers on early streets.

How to Exploit: If he checks to you or checks behind on a flop, be ready to go for two streets of value with made hands. Another option is to simply empty the clip with your bluffs. He will almost always be weak and won’t be able to stand the pressure.

Hand Five: The Regular (Player C) Stakes: 100NL

Relevant Stack Sizes:

Player C ($175.40) in MP3

Fundamental Three: Develop Reads 33 BB

($100)

Action: MP3 raises to $3.00 and the BB calls. The flop comes J♣ 9♦ 6♦. The BB checks and MP3 checks back. The 3♠ comes on the turn and again, both players check. Finally, they both check down on a J♠ river.

The BB shows K♥ 5♥ and MP3 shows K♦ 7♦ to take the $6.50 pot with his seven kicker.

My Note: R Kd7d from HJ, x 9d6dJc HU IP, x 3s T, x Js R What it Tells Me: His c-betting range must be really polarized if he won’t continuation bet a king-high flush draw versus a single villain in position.

How to Exploit: As mentioned before, lay on the aggression when he shows weakness. When he starts showing strength, give him respect.

Basic HUD Setup Next, I want to explain the HUD setup that I used in 2011. In addition to the villain’s name and the number of hands I had on them, I ultimately used 14 stats: VPIP / PFR / AF / 3-Bet / Fold to 3-Bet

Flop C-Bet / Fold to Flop C-Bet

CO Raise First / BTN Raise First / SB Raise First

SB Fold vs. Steal / SB 3B vs. Steal / BB Fold vs. Steal / BB 3B vs. Steal

The first line shouldn’t need an explanation. Those stats converge quickly and are the basis for any HUD setup. If you are just starting out, I would only use those five stats.

The second line should give you a general idea of a player’s postflop tendencies.

Be sure to bring up the pop-up window to get a sense of the sample size involved and to gauge the validity of the number. The combination of the Flop C-Bet stat and the Fold to Flop C-Bet stat should give you some insight into how robotically your opponent plays post-flop. The larger the sample size, the better.

I don’t pay much attention to lines three or four until I have a few hundred hands on my opponents. That said, the third line gives me an idea of how often a player is stealing from specific steal positions. Since four-handed poker is very dynamic, this allows me to start building an opening range for each player from those three steal positions.

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Finally, the fourth line is the antithesis of the third line. It tells me how often I can steal when my opponent is in the blinds as well as how frequently they three-bet or call when they choose to play back.

Any other stats (especially turn and river) donâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;t converge fast enough to be very useful until you have a few thousand hands on your opponent. Also, for most turn and river decisions, you should go beyond the HUD and open up a playerâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s pop-up. Doing so will give you a much more complete picture of your opponent.

Initial Reads You simply cannot afford to wait until you have a few hundred hands on an opponent to start making some assumptions about their play. Here are some factors that I look at with little to no hands on a given player.

Stack Size This should be the first and the most noticeable read you make on your opponent.

The standard buy-in for most regulars is the maximum amount allowed. Most regulars also have the auto top-off and the auto-reload features on.

If someone is sitting with a stack less than 100 big blinds, they are likely a recreational (and therefore a weaker) player. Most of these players will buy in for 50 to 80 big blinds and not top-off until they get stacked.

Number of Tables in Play You can check this information in the lobby of most poker sites. The vast majority of regulars will play multiple tables while most recreational players will play just one or two. It is also important to note that an opponent playing a lot of tables is likely to play a more straight-forward style.

Bet Sizing The standard preflop open is 3 to 4 big blinds from early and middle positions and 2.5 to 3 big blinds from late position. When three-betting in position, raising to around pot (or to just under) is standard. Out of position, it is normal to three-bet to around pot or to slightly more.

Fundamental Three: Develop Reads 35 When leading on the flop and on the turn, the standard is to bet 60% to 70% of the pot. On the river, there really isn’t a standard betting size for a variety of reasons which I won’t discuss here.

Any deviation from this should be noted unless you have additional reads. The more extreme the deviation, the more likely the opponent plays a losing style.

Some examples would include consistently opening preflop to six times the big blind or betting 15% or 125% of the pot on the flop.

Timing Tells When it comes to decision making, most good players will act in a consistent, timely manner. Conversely, weaker players will tend to act quickly most of the time.

In general, quick actions indicate someone who is fixated on their cards and who knows what they want to do before they face a bet. The most likely reasons are because they are either on a draw or they want to get to showdown with a marginal made hand. Often when these players take a long time to make a decision, they are strong (in their mind) and are trying to feign weakness.

Basic Player Types I try to classify my opponents (figure 4-1) in one of these categories as quickly as possible.

OPPONENT

SEEMS COMPETENT

NIT

TAG

SLAG

SEEMS FISHY

LAG

LOOSE­ PASSIVE

AGGRO MONKEY

Figure 4-1. Classifying basic player types

Based on some of my initial reads, I try to make the initial differentiation between competent and fishy. Then as I play more hands against them, I try to make a secondary classification such as nit, TAG, and so on. Finally, I stay open to the possibility that I classified a player incorrectly and may need to re-classify them.

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Nit Nits are the Scrooges of poker and keep their VPIP under 10 (under 17 for six-max).

Do not make a habit of making moves on them once they enter a pot. With nits, you can make money by relentlessly stealing their blinds.

TAG (Tight Aggressive) A TAG’s VPIP averages between 12 and 15 (18 to 23 for six-max) with a Preflop Raise of at least 70% of their VPIP. Each will have their own unique leaks so make an effort to understand them individually. The majority of TAGs will be fairly competent in most areas. It will take some study to realize in which areas they are not.

SLAG (Semi-Tight Aggressive) A SLAG has a VPIP between 16 and 19 (24 to 27 for six-max) with their Preflop Raise at least 70% of their VPIP. This is a hybrid between a TAG and a LAG (a slight LAG). These players often become victims of my loose three-bets which are designed to punish them for opening too wide preflop. As with TAGs, it is important to identify specific leaks in a SLAG’s game.

LAG (Loose Aggressive) LAGs keep their VPIP between 20 and 26 (between 28 and 34 for six-max) with a Preflop Raise of at least 80% of their VPIP. They also three-bet more than 7% of the time. You will have to tighten up your opening ranges when these players are left to act. But the good news is that you can loosen up your three-bet and your four-bet value ranges. Good LAGs are rare at the micro stakes so you won’t have to worry about them too much.

Loose-Passive Loose-passives have a VPIP over 20 with a Preflop Raise less than 50% of their VPIP. Because they are passive, their Aggression Factor will be less than 1.5. The key with loose-passives is to isolate them appropriately. Value bet top pair or better over multiple streets and fold all but the strongest hands once they start raising or re-raising you. They should be fairly easy to play against, especially since most play fairly straight-forward postflop.

Fundamental Three: Develop Reads 37

Aggro Monkey Aggro monkeys can be difficult to play against regardless of your skill level.

They keep their VPIP over 26 with a Preflop Raise greater than 70% of their VPIP. They are aggressive so they have an Aggression Factor greater than 2.5.

Versus these players, your goal should be to make a pair and to show it down. If you have a weak second pair type hand, try to get to showdown cheaply. With top pair and a good kicker (where top pair is tens or better), you can often play it like you have the nuts.

These types of villains are rare and donâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;t last long. However, when they run up a stack, you can be sure that they leave a table full of tilted players in their wake.

Distribution of Player Types Over my 42,600 hands at 10NL, I played more than 750 hands with just eight players. Figure 4-2 shows how the player types were distributed.

7 6 5 4 3 2 1 0

Nit

TAG

SLAG

LAG

LoosePassive

Aggro Monkey

Figure 4-2. Distribution of player types over 42,600 hands

Figure 4-3 shows the distribution over 65,600 hands in my 25NL database for 34 players total.

25 20 15 10 5 0

Nit

TAG

SLAG

Figure 4-3. Distribution of player types over 65,600 hands

LAG

LoosePassive

Aggro Monkey

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So what should you take away from this? Most regulars tend to be either nits or TAGs. Most nits are fairly easy to play against and most TAGs will have to be addressed individually. There is no “one size fits all” strategy for dealing with them.

Next I’ll take a look at a few of these regulars, discussing any potential leaks you can spot in their game and the proper strategies for exploiting those leaks.

Example One: 15/13 TAG

Figure 4-4. Hold’em Manager stats 15/13 TAG

What stands out:According to figure 4-4,this player has a very high Fold to C-Bet, a very low Turn C-Bet (only 2/9), and a high Aggression Factor. This makes me think that he

Fundamental Three: Develop Reads 39 would check-fold or check-call most turns before he would check-raise. He also doesnâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;t seem to stab much, even versus missed c-bets.

How to Exploit: Anytime you are heads up versus this type of player, c-bet.

With his low Turn C-Bet numbers, he is a prime candidate for being floated on the flop in order to take it away on the turn. If he fires a second bullet however, he is likely to be strong. This opponent also seems like a good candidate for donk betting into given his high Fold Vs C-Bet stat.

Example Two: 8/6 NIT

Figure 4-5. Holdâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;em Manager stats 8/6 nit

What Stands Out: Figure 4-5 shows that this villainâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s Flop C-Bet is pretty high.

But since he is so tight, he likely has a hand worth continuing with on most flops.

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His Turn C-Bet percentage is reasonable so floating him is not a good idea. His Fold to C-Bet seems low but the sample size is small. His low Steal percentage is worth mentioning as well.

How to Exploit: Fold hands that are likely to be dominated (like KQ, AJ) when facing a raise from him preflop, steal his blinds, and set mine.

Example Three: 15/12 TAG

Figure 4-6. Holdâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;em Manager stats 15/12 TAG

What Stands Out: As shown in figure 4-6, this player has a low Flop C-Bet, a very low Fold to Flop C-Bet, and has yet to fold to a Turn C-Bet. He also has a low Fold to Three-Bet over a small sample size. So far, he has defended his blind loosely but folds to four-bets.

Fundamental Three: Develop Reads 41 How to Exploit: Don’t bluff this player. His low Fold to C- Bet on the flop and the turn in addition to his low Fold to Three-Bet indicates that he is a calling station.

Given his low Fold to Three-Bet percentage so far, three-bet him strictly for value. However, expand your value range versus his late position opens. When he three-bets your steal attempts from the blinds, four-bet with air that has blockers, and call in position with a wide value range (88+, AQ+, AJs, KQs).

He doesn’t c-bet much (his C-Bet in Three-Bet Pots sample size is small) and he likes to get to showdown (high SD% = 38%) which means you will often be able to show down your hand.

Seat Selection As Mike McDermott said in Rounders: “If you can’t spot the sucker in the first half hour at the table, then you are the sucker.”

The single biggest factor in determining your win rate and your variance will be the competition you face. If, on average, you are involved with players that you have a clear, defined edge on, your win rate will be high and your variance will be low.

Notice that I said “players you have a clear, defined edge on” instead of “players that you are better than.” It is much easier to articulate an edge that you have over another player than to definitively state that you are better than another player.

To determine if you have an edge on another player, you need to: 1. Identify specific leaks in their game.

2. Know strategies for exploiting those leaks.

Here are two examples.

Example 1: A player on your immediate right is playing over half of his hands and never folds to three-bets or or to c-bets. He is a classic calling station. This is a big leak because he will often have weak hands postflop and you will be able to get value with better pairs and better kickers in position. This is a dream situation where you are likely to have a big edge.

Example 2: Over a large sample size, you notice that a regular c-bets 85% of flops, but only 30% of turns. Thus, you call with many more speculative hands preflop, float him on a wide range of flops, and bet turns

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when he checks them to you. You still have an edge against this player, but it is smaller than the one you have against the big calling station in the previous example.

You should look to identify these potential edges as soon as possible when you sit at a new table. In fact, if you can’t come up with a good reason for staying at a new table within three orbits, you should probably leave.

Avoiding Players In addition to figuring out who you want to be involved with the most, you also need to figure out who you want to be involved with the least. This is a facet of poker that many micro stakes players don’t consider.

Here are two examples of players where your edge is small and you should look to avoid unnecessary confrontation.

Example 1: A loose and aggressive player is sitting on your immediate left 200 big blinds deep. He is playing 20/19 and three-betting roughly 9% of his hands. When you open from the cutoff or the small blind, he often three-bets or calls and then floats you postflop.

Example 2: A 10/8 nit is sitting directly across from you. He plays a tight range and often bets multiple streets because he has strong hands. If you are going to get his stack, you’ll need to cooler him. You won’t really be able to steal his blinds because of your positions and he will clearly have better cards on average than you postflop due to his tight starting range.

Just remember that as soon as you sit down at a new table, you should start to make a mental list of who you want to be involved with the most and who you want to be involved with the least. After about three orbits, your list should be rather clear.

Sample Table Now it’s your turn. Examine the 25NL sample table (figure 4-7) and figure out who you want to be involved with the most and the least.

Fundamental Three: Develop Reads 43

25NL Sample Table Player D

0/0/0/0

Player E

0/0/0/0

5

0 Player F

$9.85

50/13/4/0

$25.00 Player C

$21.25

198

Player

12/11/3/70

$5.00

Player B

43/0/0/0

24

# of hands

VPIP/PFR/3B/Fold 3B

Chips

28

Player G

1024

14/9/4/60

$25.00

Player H

212

30/22/9/25

$52.00

$28.75

Player A

875

13/10/3/67

$28.00

Hero $25.00

Figure 4-7. 25NL sample table

Players to Engage Player F is a loose-passive player. More often than not, youâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;ll have position on him and should take full advantage of those situations. Player B is another loosepassive opponent, but he will have position on you most of the time. In those situations, you should consider tightening up your opening ranges to include more high cards (KTo, Q9s, etc) and fewer middle and low suited connectors or one-gappers (68s, 45s). Look to make a pair with a good kicker and to get a few streets of value.

Finally, there is Player H. He is an aggro monkey type who so far has shown that he doesnâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;t like folding to three-bets. You should look to play strong hands aggressively versus him and to slow play when you hit a monster. Positionally, this type of player is preferred on your right since he would be a major hassle on the left.

Those are the three major players that you should be focused on. Player E is another potential mark since he just sat down with a smaller unorthodox stack.

This is usually a sign of weakness or inexperience. However, his position on the opposite side of the table will limit the number of opportunities you have with him.

Players to Avoid There are the two main players where I estimate my edge to be the smallest.

Player A has solid preflop stats and has position on me. Therefore, I will give

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him respect early on until I know more about him. Player C, the short-stacker, given his stats and stack-size, seems to be playing the standard short-stacking strategy. Consequently I probably wonâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;t have much of an edge on him.

Everyone else at the table seems fairly standard.

F

5

I

V

E

FUNDAMENTAL FOUR:

PLAY SOLID

T

his section will begin with basic, long-term, winning strategy that you can utilize in situations where you lack specific reads. This will serve as the foundation for your play. In this chapter, I will cover the following topics:

When you should open the betting.

When you should call a raise.

When you should raise a limp.

Most of your decisions will fall in those three categories. It is also important to learn when you should deviate from the basic strategy I lay out.

Opening the Betting There are two main reasons to raise an unopened pot: 1. You hope to steal the blinds.

2. You have a hand which will play profitably facing action.

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When you open from early position and from middle position, you are less likely to steal the blinds than when you open from late position. Therefore, the hands you raise should be hands you expect to be profitable postflop. When you open from late position however, your decision should be based more on the people left to act behind you.

Thus, because of all the variables, your opening ranges from early position will tend to be much more static than your opening ranges from late position.

I will suggest opening ranges from the different positions, but first I want to address the size of your opening raise.

Opening Bet Sizes By default, I like opening to three times the size of the big blind (expressed as 3x) from early and middle position and sometimes to 2.5x from late position. I also open to 3x from the small blind.

I discussed bet sizing with my friend Eric â&#x20AC;&#x153;Damn Ringerâ&#x20AC;? Burtzlaff. Here are some pros and cons that we came up with in regards to different opening sizes.

Minraise (2x) Pros: The minraise is effective against villains who either fold or three-bet but rarely call facing a steal. It is also effective versus tight players.

Cons: A minraise provides your opponents with incentive to call, especially in position. Minraises fail to build a pot when you have strong hands (you are likely to win at showdown) or will have position postflop (you are likely to win without showdown).

Big (3.5x+) Pros: Big raises help exploit calling stations when you hold a premium hand or when your opponent plays fit or fold poker postflop. Big raises also build pots quicker when you hold those premium hands.

Cons: If you fold to a lot of three-bets, big raises give your opponent a greater incentive to three-bet you. They also discourage regulars from playing speculative hands versus you when they are out of position. But this is something you want them to do. Moreover, due to the inflated pot sizes, big raises become expensive quickly if you make a lot of postflop mistakes.

Fundamental Four: Play Solid 47

Standard (2.5â&#x20AC;&#x201C;3x) Pros: Standard raises offer a good risk to reward ratio versus an average opponent.

They also help build a pot when you have position while managing to keep the pot small enough to continue against a standard three-bet.

Cons: Standard raises are not optimal versus opponents who can be better exploited using a different preflop raise size.

Opening Ranges Any winning player will tell that a solid understanding of opening ranges is imperative if you hope to be successful in this game. And although poker is far from black and white, the simple fact is you need to start somewhere. The following tables should serve as a solid foundation upon which you can build.

UTG and UTG+1 Opening Range Two scenarios are highly probable when playing from early position.

1. You are likely to see a flop.

2. You will frequently be out of position.

Therefore, you need to open with a range of hands (table 5-1) that will play profitably postflop out of position.

AA

AKs AQs AJs ATs

AKo KK

A9s A8s A7s A6s A5s A4s A3s A2s

KQs KJs KTs K9s K8s K7s K6s K5s K4s K3s K2s

AQo KQo QQ

QJs QTs Q9s Q8s Q7s Q6s Q5s Q4s Q3s Q2s

AJo KJo QJo JJ

JTs

J9s

ATo KTo QTo JTo

TT

T9s T8s T7s T6s T5s T4s T3s T2s

A9o K9o Q9o J9o T9o 99

J8s

J7s

J6s

J5s

J4s

J3s

J2s

98s 97s 96s 95s 94s 93s 92s

A8o K8o Q8o J8o T8o 98o 88

87s 86s 85s 84s 83s 82s

A7o K7o Q7o J7o T7o 97o 87o 77

76s 75s 74s 73s 72s

A6o K6o Q6o J6o T6o 96o 86o 76o 66

65s 64s 63s 62s

A5o K5o Q5o J5o T5o 95o 85o 75o 65o 55

54s 53s 52s

A4o K4o Q4o J4o T4o 94o 84o 74o 64o 54o 44

43s 42s

A3o K3o Q3o J3o T3o 93o 83o 73o 63o 53o 43o 33

32s

A2o K2o Q2o J2o T2o 92o 82o 72o 62o 52o 42o 32o 22 Table 5-1. UTG and UTG+1 opening range

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If there are some huge whales at your table, all pocket pairs should be profitable.

But in general, I would avoid 22â&#x20AC;&#x201C;â&#x20AC;&#x160;44 from the first two positions at tough tables.

Even if you manage to flop a set, you might suddenly receive lots of action and find yourself on the wrong end of a cooler (or so you tell yourself).

I know this range may seem tight and nitty to some of you. But I hope you are reading this book to make money, not to prove to the world that you can own people with 86s.

MP1 and MP2 Opening Range Although you should continue playing tight from middle position, you should add a few hands to your default opening range (table 5-2).

AA

AKs AQs AJs ATs

AKo KK

A9s A8s A7s A6s A5s A4s A3s A2s

KQs KJs KTs K9s K8s K7s K6s K5s K4s K3s K2s

AQo KQo QQ

QJs QTs Q9s Q8s Q7s Q6s Q5s Q4s Q3s Q2s

AJo KJo QJo JJ

JTs

J9s

ATo KTo QTo JTo

TT

T9s T8s T7s T6s T5s T4s T3s T2s

A9o K9o Q9o J9o T9o 99

J8s

J7s

J6s

J5s

J4s

J3s

J2s

98s 97s 96s 95s 94s 93s 92s

A8o K8o Q8o J8o T8o 98o 88

87s 86s 85s 84s 83s 82s

A7o K7o Q7o J7o T7o 97o 87o 77

76s 75s 74s 73s 72s

A6o K6o Q6o J6o T6o 96o 86o 76o 66

65s 64s 63s 62s

A5o K5o Q5o J5o T5o 95o 85o 75o 65o 55

54s 53s 52s

A4o K4o Q4o J4o T4o 94o 84o 74o 64o 54o 44

43s 42s

A3o K3o Q3o J3o T3o 93o 83o 73o 63o 53o 43o 33

32s

A2o K2o Q2o J2o T2o 92o 82o 72o 62o 52o 42o 32o 22 Table 5-2. MP1 and MP2 opening range

As a general rule, you are much better off sticking to the tighter opening range shown in the chart above. If there are big fish still left to act, you can add some speculative suited hands like KTs, QTs, T9s, and some suited aces.

You will have an opportunity to open up your range in the next few positions where the chances of stealing blinds and playing heads up pots in position jumps dramatically.

Fundamental Four: Play Solid 49

Hijack Opening Range Table 5-3 displays a standard opening range from the hijack.

AA

AKs AQs AJs ATs

AKo KK

A9s A8s A7s A6s A5s A4s A3s A2s

KQs KJs KTs K9s K8s K7s K6s K5s K4s K3s K2s

AQo KQo QQ

QJs QTs Q9s Q8s Q7s Q6s Q5s Q4s Q3s Q2s

AJo KJo QJo JJ

JTs

J9s

ATo KTo QTo JTo

TT

T9s T8s T7s T6s T5s T4s T3s T2s

A9o K9o Q9o J9o T9o 99

J8s

J7s

J6s

J5s

J4s

J3s

J2s

98s 97s 96s 95s 94s 93s 92s

A8o K8o Q8o J8o T8o 98o 88

87s 86s 85s 84s 83s 82s

A7o K7o Q7o J7o T7o 97o 87o 77

76s 75s 74s 73s 72s

A6o K6o Q6o J6o T6o 96o 86o 76o 66

65s 64s 63s 62s

A5o K5o Q5o J5o T5o 95o 85o 75o 65o 55

54s 53s 52s

A4o K4o Q4o J4o T4o 94o 84o 74o 64o 54o 44

43s 42s

A3o K3o Q3o J3o T3o 93o 83o 73o 63o 53o 43o 33

32s

A2o K2o Q2o J2o T2o 92o 82o 72o 62o 52o 42o 32o 22 Table 5-3. Hijack opening range

If the cutoff or the button are seldom three-betting (less than 2%) and are relatively tight (VPIP less than 12%), you can add the following hands to your opening range: A2s – A9s ATo QJo If the cutoff or the button three-bet a lot (8% or more), then stick with the tighter range. You might also want to consider simply folding 22 – 55 in that situation.

Cutoff Opening Range Once you find yourself in the cutoff and the game becomes four handed, you should really start opening up your ranges based on your reads. If the button is three-betting a lot, then you will need to tighten up.

I will discuss strategies that deal with aggressive players who have position on you in the small blind section. In the meantime, table 5-4 shows a default opening range from the cutoff.

50 Building a Bankroll AA

|

AKs AQs AJs ATs

AKo KK

Chapter 5 A9s A8s A7s A6s A5s A4s A3s A2s

KQs KJs KTs K9s K8s K7s K6s K5s K4s K3s K2s

AQo KQo QQ

QJs QTs Q9s Q8s Q7s Q6s Q5s Q4s Q3s Q2s

AJo KJo QJo JJ

JTs

J9s

ATo KTo QTo JTo

TT

T9s T8s T7s T6s T5s T4s T3s T2s

A9o K9o Q9o J9o T9o 99

J8s

J7s

J6s

J5s

J4s

J3s

J2s

98s 97s 96s 95s 94s 93s 92s

A8o K8o Q8o J8o T8o 98o 88

87s 86s 85s 84s 83s 82s

A7o K7o Q7o J7o T7o 97o 87o 77

76s 75s 74s 73s 72s

A6o K6o Q6o J6o T6o 96o 86o 76o 66

65s 64s 63s 62s

A5o K5o Q5o J5o T5o 95o 85o 75o 65o 55

54s 53s 52s

A4o K4o Q4o J4o T4o 94o 84o 74o 64o 54o 44

43s 42s

A3o K3o Q3o J3o T3o 93o 83o 73o 63o 53o 43o 33

32s

A2o K2o Q2o J2o T2o 92o 82o 72o 62o 52o 42o 32o 22 Table 5-4. Cutoff opening range

The better your reads, the more you should start moving away from static ranges and start adjusting based those reads. I cannot stress this enough. It is important to loosen up and to tighten up accordingly.

Button Opening Range What hands you can open from the button depends entirely on who is in the blinds. Readless, start with this range (table 5-5).

AA

AKs AQs AJs ATs

AKo KK

A9s A8s A7s A6s A5s A4s A3s A2s

KQs KJs KTs K9s K8s K7s K6s K5s K4s K3s K2s

AQo KQo QQ

QJs QTs Q9s Q8s Q7s Q6s Q5s Q4s Q3s Q2s

AJo KJo QJo JJ

JTs

J9s

ATo KTo QTo JTo

TT

T9s T8s T7s T6s T5s T4s T3s T2s

A9o K9o Q9o J9o T9o 99

J8s

J7s

J6s

J5s

J4s

J3s

J2s

98s 97s 96s 95s 94s 93s 92s

A8o K8o Q8o J8o T8o 98o 88

87s 86s 85s 84s 83s 82s

A7o K7o Q7o J7o T7o 97o 87o 77

76s 75s 74s 73s 72s

A6o K6o Q6o J6o T6o 96o 86o 76o 66

65s 64s 63s 62s

A5o K5o Q5o J5o T5o 95o 85o 75o 65o 55

54s 53s 52s

A4o K4o Q4o J4o T4o 94o 84o 74o 64o 54o 44

43s 42s

A3o K3o Q3o J3o T3o 93o 83o 73o 63o 53o 43o 33

32s

A2o K2o Q2o J2o T2o 92o 82o 72o 62o 52o 42o 32o 22 Table 5-5. Button opening range

Fundamental Four: Play Solid 51 When to Open Looser: If the blinds are both tight (VPIP less than 12%) and don’t three-bet much (Three-Bet less than 3%, Three-Bet Vs. Steal less than 6%), then you can pretty much open any two cards and show a profit. Keep in mind that if you get called, your opponent will often go to the flop with a strong range.

So tighten up your c-bets.

When to Open Tighter: Anytime you have loose players in the blinds (loosepassive or loose-aggressive) or regulars that will three-bet wide versus steals (greater than 10%), you’ll want to open tighter. Your range really depends on your opponents.

Let’s look at two examples of opening ranges: versus a loose-passive in the blinds and versus a LAG in the blinds.

Button Opening Range Versus a Loose-Passive Here is the range of hands you should open with a loose-passive opponent in the blinds (table 5-6).

AA

AKs AQs AJs ATs

AKo KK

A9s A8s A7s A6s A5s A4s A3s A2s

KQs KJs KTs K9s K8s K7s K6s K5s K4s K3s K2s

AQo KQo QQ

QJs QTs Q9s Q8s Q7s Q6s Q5s Q4s Q3s Q2s

AJo KJo QJo JJ

JTs

J9s

ATo KTo QTo JTo

TT

T9s T8s T7s T6s T5s T4s T3s T2s

A9o K9o Q9o J9o T9o 99

J8s

J7s

J6s

J5s

J4s

J3s

J2s

98s 97s 96s 95s 94s 93s 92s

A8o K8o Q8o J8o T8o 98o 88

87s 86s 85s 84s 83s 82s

A7o K7o Q7o J7o T7o 97o 87o 77

76s 75s 74s 73s 72s

A6o K6o Q6o J6o T6o 96o 86o 76o 66

65s 64s 63s 62s

A5o K5o Q5o J5o T5o 95o 85o 75o 65o 55

54s 53s 52s

A4o K4o Q4o J4o T4o 94o 84o 74o 64o 54o 44

43s 42s

A3o K3o Q3o J3o T3o 93o 83o 73o 63o 53o 43o 33

32s

A2o K2o Q2o J2o T2o 92o 82o 72o 62o 52o 42o 32o 22 Table 5-6. Button opening range versus a loose-passive

This range will either flop a good pair with good kicker type hand or will give you plenty of cards to barrel with your suited, connected cards. If you happen to hit a high pair, you should look to extract multiple streets of value. Often, if you miss and the loose-passive has a low Fold to C-Bet, just check back and hope to improve.

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Button Opening Range Versus a LAG If you face an opponent that is clearly getting out of line with their preflop three-betting against a steal (15% or more), but who isn’t a complete psycho (VPIP less than 30%) you want your range to be much tighter preflop. However, you will also play that range much more aggressively. Use this range as your base (table 5-7).

AA

AKs AQs AJs ATs

AKo KK

A9s A8s A7s A6s A5s A4s A3s A2s

KQs KJs KTs K9s K8s K7s K6s K5s K4s K3s K2s

AQo KQo QQ

QJs QTs Q9s Q8s Q7s Q6s Q5s Q4s Q3s Q2s

AJo KJo QJo JJ

JTs

J9s

ATo KTo QTo JTo

TT

T9s T8s T7s T6s T5s T4s T3s T2s

A9o K9o Q9o J9o T9o 99

J8s

J7s

J6s

J5s

J4s

J3s

J2s

98s 97s 96s 95s 94s 93s 92s

A8o K8o Q8o J8o T8o 98o 88

87s 86s 85s 84s 83s 82s

A7o K7o Q7o J7o T7o 97o 87o 77

76s 75s 74s 73s 72s

A6o K6o Q6o J6o T6o 96o 86o 76o 66

65s 64s 63s 62s

A5o K5o Q5o J5o T5o 95o 85o 75o 65o 55

54s 53s 52s

A4o K4o Q4o J4o T4o 94o 84o 74o 64o 54o 44

43s 42s

A3o K3o Q3o J3o T3o 93o 83o 73o 63o 53o 43o 33

32s

A2o K2o Q2o J2o T2o 92o 82o 72o 62o 52o 42o 32o 22 Table 5-7. Button opening range versus a LAG

If you face a three-bet, but the villain folds to four-bets, four-bet him with a range of hands that has blockers but limited postflop playability. This includes hands like A2o –A9o, QTo –KTo, and K9s.

You can also add some hands which you will four-bet for value: JJ, QQ, AK, 66, and 77.

Call in position with hands that will have your opponent’s range dominated, will flop a strong one-pair type hand, or will flop good draws: 88, 99, KK, AA, suited broadways, 78s – 9Ts, KJo+, ATo+, and QJo. As shown above, call with kings and aces if the villain has a high Fold to Four-Bet since you will be able to get much more value from them postflop.

As you can see, you are doing quite a bit of four-betting since a 15%+ three-betting range will have a lot of air. If you notice that you are getting three-bet and then shoved on repeatedly, stop four-betting as a bluff and start four-betting lighter for value (down to 77+, AQ+).

Fundamental Four: Play Solid 53

Small Blind Opening Range Readless, I would open this range from the small blind (table 5-8).

AA

AKs AQs AJs ATs

AKo KK

A9s A8s A7s A6s A5s A4s A3s A2s

KQs KJs KTs K9s K8s K7s K6s K5s K4s K3s K2s

AQo KQo QQ

QJs QTs Q9s Q8s Q7s Q6s Q5s Q4s Q3s Q2s

AJo KJo QJo JJ

JTs

J9s

ATo KTo QTo JTo

TT

T9s T8s T7s T6s T5s T4s T3s T2s

A9o K9o Q9o J9o T9o 99

J8s

J7s

J6s

J5s

J4s

J3s

J2s

98s 97s 96s 95s 94s 93s 92s

A8o K8o Q8o J8o T8o 98o 88

87s 86s 85s 84s 83s 82s

A7o K7o Q7o J7o T7o 97o 87o 77

76s 75s 74s 73s 72s

A6o K6o Q6o J6o T6o 96o 86o 76o 66

65s 64s 63s 62s

A5o K5o Q5o J5o T5o 95o 85o 75o 65o 55

54s 53s 52s

A4o K4o Q4o J4o T4o 94o 84o 74o 64o 54o 44

43s 42s

A3o K3o Q3o J3o T3o 93o 83o 73o 63o 53o 43o 33

32s

A2o K2o Q2o J2o T2o 92o 82o 72o 62o 52o 42o 32o 22 Table 5-8. Small blind opening range

With reads, adjust as needed. Letâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s look at two hand examples which highlight this concept.

Hand One: Nit in the Big Blind It is folded around to you in the small blind and you have J5o. Figure 5-1 represents the villainâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s HUD pop-up.

Here is what you should be focusing on.

The villain is playing tight (7/5) over a reasonable sample size.

He has three-bet only 2% of hands over that sample.

Postflop, he has folded to five out of five c-bets.

This type of player will probably be playing level one poker. Until he shows you otherwise, open 100% of your range against him.

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Figure 5-1. Nit pop-up

Hand Two: LAG in the Big Blind Compare and contrast the previous playerâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s pop-up (figure 5-1) with the pop-up in figure 5-2 while focusing on similar metrics.

This villain is playing very loosely at 24/21.

With a Three-Bet of 10%, he is doing plenty of light three-betting. So far, he has not defended his big blind versus steals which is surprising given his VPIP, Preflop Raise, and Three-Bet stats.

Postflop, he has only folded to one out of six c-bets and has called both times he faced a turn c-bet. Additionally, he almost always fires when checked to and has a ridiculously high aggression factor.

Fundamental Four: Play Solid 55

Figure 5-2. LAG pop-up

All those things combined could make this player very frustrating to have on your left. So what range of hands should you open from the small blind with this opponent in the big blind?

Small Blind Versus LAG Loose-aggressive players in the big blind can make your life difficult when you are in the small blind. They will use their position to resteal pots preflop by three-betting, and postflop by calling or floating.

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For starters, tighten up your preflop opening range (table 5-9).

AA

AKs AQs AJs ATs

AKo KK

A9s A8s A7s A6s A5s A4s A3s A2s

KQs KJs KTs K9s K8s K7s K6s K5s K4s K3s K2s

AQo KQo QQ

QJs QTs Q9s Q8s Q7s Q6s Q5s Q4s Q3s Q2s

AJo KJo QJo JJ

JTs

J9s

ATo KTo QTo JTo

TT

T9s T8s T7s T6s T5s T4s T3s T2s

A9o K9o Q9o J9o T9o 99

J8s

J7s

J6s

J5s

J4s

J3s

J2s

98s 97s 96s 95s 94s 93s 92s

A8o K8o Q8o J8o T8o 98o 88

87s 86s 85s 84s 83s 82s

A7o K7o Q7o J7o T7o 97o 87o 77

76s 75s 74s 73s 72s

A6o K6o Q6o J6o T6o 96o 86o 76o 66

65s 64s 63s 62s

A5o K5o Q5o J5o T5o 95o 85o 75o 65o 55

54s 53s 52s

A4o K4o Q4o J4o T4o 94o 84o 74o 64o 54o 44

43s 42s

A3o K3o Q3o J3o T3o 93o 83o 73o 63o 53o 43o 33

32s

A2o K2o Q2o J2o T2o 92o 82o 72o 62o 52o 42o 32o 22 Table 5-9. Small blind opening range versus a LAG in the big blind

Because you tightened up your opening range, you can loosen up your range for continuing versus three-bets. This means you can four-bet lighter and call three-bets lighter.

Isolating Limpers Frequent limping preflop is a sign of a weak, inexperienced player. By default, you should not overlimp. When you decide to play a hand, just raise. There are exceptions to this however.

You are in the small blind and have a weak holding like a small pocket pair, a medium suited connector, a weak suited ace, or a suited one-gapper.

You are at the bottom of your range and are faced with three or more limpers, or perhaps two limpers one of whom is a short-stacker.

As a caveat, you are better off folding the bottom of your range versus two short-stackers since one of the players is likely to limp-raise you all-in preflop.

You have a small pocket pair and there is a big target in the blinds. You want him to see a flop with you and limping often means he will.

Fundamental Four: Play Solid 57 When to raise: Since your range is already strong from both early and middle position, isolate any limpers with the range of hands you would normally open.

Absent specific postflop reads on any limpers, weigh your isolating range from late position towards value since you will see a flop about 75% of the time.

Here is my analysis of a few hands that I played versus limpers from my 2011 Challenge.

Hand One Stakes: 25NL Relevant Stack Sizes and Initial Reads: UTG

(20.45) is playing 47/0 over 15 hands

Hero ($39.03) is in MP3

Action: UTG limps and I isolate to $1.00 with K♦ Q♠ from MP3. Everyone else folds and the villain calls.

The flop comes Q♦ 9♣ 5♥. Villain leads into me for $1.20 into a pot of $2.35 and I call. The 9♥ hits the turn. Villain leads again, this time $3.00 into $4.75.

I call again. The river brings the 4♥ and the villain completes his triple barrel by betting $5.50 into $10.75. I call and watch him muck T♣ 8♣.

Analysis: Preflop is a standard isolation play.

On the flop, when the villain leads into me for around half pot, I call for value.

I am likely so far ahead of him on this dry flop that flatting is the best option.

The 9♥ is not a great turn card since second pair is a legitimate hand for him to have donk bet on the flop. If he led for less than half pot, I would raise to get value now and to get a free showdown in position. Since he leads for around two-thirds pot, I call again.

On the river I face a half pot-sized bet. Although a backdoor flush draw got there, all the other obvious draws missed. So I call to show down my hand. I don’t think there is any value in raising on the river.

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Hand Two Stakes: 25NL Relevant Stack Sizes and Initial Reads: MP1

($45.61) is playing 32/13 over 79 hands

Hero ($27.44) is in the CO

Action: MP1 limps for $0.25 and I isolate to $1.10 from the CO with Q♦Q♥.

The action folds around to MP1 who calls. The flop comes K♣ 8♦ 6♦. MP1 checks, I bet $1.75 into $2.55, and he folds.

Analysis: Again, preflop is standard.

A closer look at villain’s postflop tendencies shows that he has folded to 5 out of 5 continuation bets, has infinite aggression, and has bet 8 out of 9 times versus a flop check from the preflop raiser. While I would often fire this flop for value against most players, betting versus this player with my read was a mistake.

In hindsight, checking this flop would have been the better play, especially given the Q♦ in my hand. This would allow my opponent to take a stab with the majority of his range on the turn which I would happily call down versus.

Hand Three

Stakes: 25NL Relevant Stack Sizes and Initial Reads: BTN

($66.23) is playing 30/10 over 10 hands

Hero ($51.07) is in the SB

Action: The BTN limps for $0.25, I raise to $1.00 from the SB with 3♥ 3♣ and the villain calls. The flop is heads up and comes K♠ 9♦ 6♥. I c-bet $1.25 into $2.25 and the villain folds.

Analysis: The key to this hand is stack sizes since we are roughly 200 big blinds deep. A preflop raise is necessary in order to win a large pot should I hit my set and the player decides to passively call me down postflop.

A raise is also necessary if I want to go to the flop heads up. The odds of winning the hand are much higher versus one player than they are versus two.

Versus many limpers, especially if they have less than 100 big blinds, I normally complete from the small blind with small pocket pairs (22 – 66). However, I

Fundamental Four: Play Solid 59 would raise all pocket pairs in this situation. Postflop, I stab at the dry, kinghigh flop and take it down.

Hand Four

Stakes: 25NL Relevant Stack Sizes and Initial Reads: MP1 ($31.35) is playing 63/17 over 49 hands with a Fold to C-Bet of 55% (9)

Hero ($35.40) is on the BTN

Action: MP1 limps and I raise to $1.00 from the BTN with 7♠ 7♣. MP1 calls. The flop comes J♠ 8♠ 5♣. MP1 checks, I bet $1.30 into $2.00, and villain calls.

The turns brings the A♦ and we both check. The river brings the 9♠, villain leads for $2.25 into $4.60, and I fold.

Analysis: Given my position and these stack sizes, I need to start building a pot preflop in order to win a big pot postflop. Therefore, preflop is another standard spot to isolate.

I c-bet on the flop since I am unlikely to show down a winning hand by the river and because the villain has shown that he can fold to c-bets. Even though the flop is fairly connected, I still hope to fold out hands which have decent equity against me.

A good example would be KQ with a spade, which is likely to fold the flop but has 33% equity against my sevens. Another example would be A9o with no spades which has about 30% equity.

The turn brings an ace, which is often a good card to double barrel. On this flop however, the villain will likely have either a made hand or a draw and neither is folding to a turn bet. Moreover, betting the turn could pressure me into barrelling the river. Doing so would build a large pot with no reads and limited equity. That is something I want to avoid.

Once the flush and the straight draws complete on the river and my opponent leads, I have no reason to believe that my hand is good so I simply fold.

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Hand Five

Stakes: 25NL Relevant Stack Sizes and Initial Reads: CO

($15.49) is playing 27/5 over 23 hands

Hero ($28.62) is on the BTN

BB

($19.04) is 71/29 over 7 hands

Action: CO limps, I isolate to $1.00 from the button with T♠ 8♠ and get calls from both the BB and the CO. The flop comes A♠ 9♥ 2♦. Both villains check, I bet $1.00 into $3.00 and take down the pot.

Analysis: On this flop, I have two things going for me: 1. A great flop texture to c-bet.

2. A good amount of equity with which to double barrel the turn (any spade, seven, or jack which accounts for one-third of the deck). A ten or an eight might also give me the best hand if either villain has 33 – 77.

On the flop, I only bet one-third pot since I expect both players to continue with nines or better and to fold worse. I am not worried about consistent bet sizing versus these opponents since they both seem weak. I’m also not worried about them exploiting my bet sizing since they are unlikely to develop any sort of reads against me.

Hand Six

Stakes: 25NL

Relevant Stack Sizes and Initial Reads:

MP1

($20) is playing 47/0 over 15 hands

Hero ($30.25) is on the BTN

BB

($23.40) is playing 20/0 over 10 hands

Action: MP1 limps, I isolate from the BTN with J♣ 8♣, the BB calls, and MP1 calls.

The flop comes Q♠ 7♣ 4♦. The BB checks, MP1 bets $0.25 into $3.10, and I raise to $1.75. Both opponents fold and I take down the pot.

Analysis: In terms of isolating with suited hands, J8s is toward the bottom of my range. On the button however, it is strong enough to play.

On the flop, MP1 leads for the minimum. I raise for two reasons:

Fundamental Four: Play Solid 61 1. To attack MP1’s weak bet.

2. The big blind will be out of position facing a bet (albeit a small one) and a raise. This will force him to dump all his marginal holdings. For example, how excited is he about 67s in this situation?

I do have position and some equity if called by either player. Specifically, I have around 30% versus a pair of sevens and 9% versus top pair with top kicker.

Calling a Raise Most people call too much preflop. Some players do it because they get bored or impatient. Some players find themselves on tilt and just look to flop anything and splash around. A lot of players simply like speculating and seeing flops.

But without a valid reason to call, you are just throwing money away. Here are good reasons to call a raise.

You have a hand which is ahead of your opponent’s opening range. However, it plays poorly versus their four-bets or in spots in which they call your three-bet.

Example: You call with KQo versus a player who opens loosely but has a high Fold to Three-Bet. When faced with a three-bet, he will likely fold weaker kings and queens and thus go to the flop with a range which dominates KQo. You are getting great implied odds with a speculative hand.

To disguise the strength of your hand.

Here are some examples from my 2011 Challenge where I called preflop.

Hand One Stakes: 25NL Relevant Stack Sizes and Initial Reads: CO

($56.09) is playing 16/15 over 131 hands with a 55% (11) C-Bet

Hero ($42.15) is on the BTN

SB

($30.47)

BB

($9.93) is playing 40/0 over 10 hands

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Action: The CO raises to $0.75 and I call on the BTN with T♣ T♦. Both blinds call. The flop comes A♣ J♣ 3♣. The SB fires a pot-sized bet of $3.00, the BB calls, and the CO and I both fold.

Analysis: Preflop is a great spot to call with my tens because: 1. The cutoff has reasonable stats over a small sample size. Therefore, I should treat him as a competent player who is still mostly an unknown.

2. Versus the cutoff, I am 168 big blinds deep.

3. Putting (1) and (2) together, I should assume that my tens play much better versus the cutoff’s opening raise than they would versus his three-bet calling range or his four-betting range. They also play very well versus the Big Blind’s calling range.

4. There is a 40 big blind stack who seems like a weaker player in the big blind.

5. I will be in position versus the cutoff postflop and he doesn’t seem too out of line with his c-betting.

Postflop, once the Small Blind fires a big bet and the Big Blind calls, it is an easy fold with my third pair and weak flush draw.

Hand Two

Stakes: 25NL Relevant Stack Sizes and Initial Reads: UTG ($25.65) is playing 16/15 over 363 hands with an 86% (7) Fold to Three-

Bet and a 7% Early Position Preflop Raise

Hero ($29.51) is on the BTN

SB

($73.65) is an unknown

BB

($11.71) is playing 11/9 over 215 hands

Action: UTG opens to $0.85 and it folds around to me on the BTN. I flat-call with A♥ K♥ and both the SB and the BB call as well.

The flop comes K♦ J♥ 2♠ and everyone checks to me. I bet $2.25 into $3.40 and take down the pot.

Analysis: This player has a tight early position opening range (7%), and a high Fold to Three-Bet percentage. These two factors make calling AKs in position a textbook play. Postflop, once everyone checks to me, I bet my hand for value and take it down.

Fundamental Four: Play Solid 63

Hand Three

Stakes: 25NL Relevant Stack Sizes and Initial Reads: MP2

($44.85) is playing 13/9 over 327 hands

Hero ($26.15) is in MP3

SB ($22.69) is playing 44/17 over 18 hands with an Aggression Factor of 3.5 BB ($25.22) is playing 27/20 over 84 hands with an infinite Aggression Factor

Action: MP2 opens to $0.85 and I flat in MP3 with A♠ A♦. Everyone else folds.

The flop comes Q♣ J♣ 4♠. MP2 c-bets $1.50 into $2.05 and I call. The turn brings the 2♥. MP2 checks, I fire $3.25 into $5.05, and he folds.

Analysis: Looking ahead, there are two LAG players in the blinds. By flatting the TAG’s open, I am inviting both of them to squeeze. Even if the LAGs choose not to squeeze and to flat instead, I will be in position with a hand which crushes their calling ranges.

No such luck getting squeezed as I go to the flop heads up versus MP2. The preflop raiser bets and I call. I don’t like raising this flop since I do very well versus his c-betting range but poorly versus his flop three-betting range. On the turn, once he checks to me, I bet for value and take down the pot.

Hand Four

Stakes: 10NL Relevant Stack Sizes and Initial Reads: CO

($7.68) is playing 22/8 over 39 hands

BTN

($7.58) is 23/15 over 26 hands

Hero ($12.26) is in the BB

Action: The CO limps, the BTN isolates to $0.30, and I call in the BB with 3♦ 3♠.

The CO calls as well and we see a A♣ J♦ 6♦ flop. I check, the CO checks, the BTN fires $0.50 into $0.95, and I fold.

Analysis: When the cutoff limps and the button raises a small amount, I assume that the cutoff will not back-raise based on his stats. So I am more than happy to see a three-way flop for $0.20 laying me 3.75 to 1 on my preflop call.

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Additionally, since both players have medium sized stacks and suboptimal preflop stats, I can assume they will make postflop mistakes such as stacking off too lightly if I hit my set.

Postflop, I miss completely and just give up.

S

6

I 1 X

THREE-BETTING

AND BEYOND

W

ith new or less experienced players, there is often a fair amount of confusion about three-betting, playing versus three-bets, and fourbetting. This chapter takes a closer look at how to handle preflop aggression as well as how to dish it out.

Three-Betting There are three main reasons to three-bet a single raiser.

1. You want to get value from worse hands. This means that the villain will either call your three-bet or will four-bet you with a weaker range. Keep in mind that there are times in which you three-bet for value but then fold to a four-bet. This is usually versus players who open loosely and often call three-bets but seldom four-bet.

For example, say that you are up against a player who will call three-bets with lots of pocket pairs, weak kings, and weak queens, but will four-bet KK, AA, and AK. In this case, three-betting KQ but then folding should you be four-bet, is the right play.

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2. Your opponent is likely to fold and you can win some blinds. There is also a psychological, metagame effect from winning pots without showing down your hand. The more you do it, the more skeptical your opponents become, which increases their likelihood of calling you down light. This is the power of developing an image through frequent aggression. It often results in you getting paid off at some point in the future when you hold a legitimate hand.

3. You want to isolate yourself with a fish while not giving other good players incentive to squeeze. The three-bet size doesn't have to be large. Sometimes you can even three-bet to 2.25 times the amount of the original raise. Any player that now wants to enter the pot knows that they are not closing the action. This can serve as a strong deterrent to them continuing.

It is important to know why you are three-betting, so that if you face a four-bet, you know how to proceed. Always remember that poker without a plan is bad poker.

Here are some general guidelines to consider before three-betting.

Three-bet late position openers wider than early position openers since their ranges are likely wider and thus weaker.

Three-bet loose players wider than tight players.

Three-bet wider when you will be in position postflop. It will be easier for you to play profitably if you get called.

Three-bet for value wider when a player has a low Fold to Three-Bet percentage.

Three-bet more when your opponent plays straightforward postflop.

Here are some hands which focus on all these points from my 2011 Challenge.

Hand One Stake: 10NL Relevant Stack Sizes and Initial Reads: ($12.87) is playing 31/27 over 108 hands and has folded to three-bets 4 out of 5 times

MP3

Hero ($15.77) is in the CO

BTN

($19.16)

Three-Betting and Beyond 67 Action: MP3 raises to $0.30 and I three-bet to $1.05 with K♦K♥.

It folds back around to MP3 who calls the additional $0.75.

The flop comes 3♦ 2♣ 2♥. MP3 check-calls my $1.50 c-bet into $2.25. The turn is the 5♦ and the villain once again check-calls my bet of $3.50 into $5.25.

The river brings the 8♥ and with $12.25 in the pot, I shove my remaining $9.72.

Villain folds and I take the pot.

Analysis: I pick up a premium hand versus a LAG and three-bet for value.

It's important to do this since I am 129 big blinds deep. Postflop, I bet three streets for value.

Hand Two

Stakes: 25NL Relevant Stack Sizes and Initial Reads: MP2 ($25.60) is playing 17/15 with a 54% Fold to Three-Bet over 1,100 hands

Hero ($28.75) is in the CO

Action: MP2 opens to $0.75. I pick up A♣ J♣ and three-bet to $2.25. Everyone, including MP2, folds and I take down the pot.

Analysis: When analyzing this villain's large sample size, I notice that he opens wide for full ring, doesn’t fold to many three-bets, and rarely four-bets (4%). I have position and blockers, as well as a value hand versus his overall calling range.

It is also important to look at who is still left to act in this situation. If there are weaker players in the blinds, I would prefer calling with a high, suited ace. In this case the blinds were both regulars, so calling would likely only invite a squeeze.

If faced with a four-bet, I can comfortably fold.

Hand Three

Stakes: 25NL

Relevant Stack Sizes and Initial Reads:

MP3

($13.87) is playing 8/5 over 143 hands

BTN

($28.90) is playing 16/0 over 233 hands

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($13.80) is playing 22/17 with a 7% Three-Bet over 162 hands

Hero ($25.50) is in the CO

Action: MP3 minraises to $0.50. I three-bet to $1.85 with J♠ J♣ and when the action folds back around MP3 four-bets to $4.80. I fold.

Analysis: I misplayed this hand. A 50 big blind stack playing very tight opens from MP3. I have a hand that has a lot of value facing his opening range, but does poorly versus his four-betting range. Also, with an active player behind, I can induce a squeeze and see how the original raiser reacts.

If I flat and take a flop, I have position with a hand that will be easy to play.

I waste this advantage with my three-bet however. Once the villain four-bets, I simply have to fold.

Hand Four

Stakes: 25NL Relevant Stack Sizes and Initial Reads: MP3

($25.10) is playing 50/50 over 6 hands

Hero ($30.69) is in the SB

Action: MP3 opens to $0.85. I pick up A♣ Q♣ in the SB and three-bet to $2.80.

MP3 calls.

The flop comes K♠ T♥ 2♠ and I c-bet $4.00 into $5.85. Villain calls. The turn is the Q♦ and I check. The villain checks behind. The K♣ comes on the river.

With $13.85 in the pot, I check and call a $6.00 bet. Villain shows J♦ J♠ and I take down the $25.85 pot.

Analysis: I don’t have a lot of reads on this villain but he has been active over a few hands. Since I have a strong hand and will be out of position postflop, I want to take the initiative by three-betting.

I flop a gutshot with an overcard and elect to c-bet. This folds out low and mid pocket pairs as well as random air. These are hands which might stab if I check or which could improve on the turn.

On the river, I check and call a small bet with second pair, top kicker. Given how the hand played out and seeing how the flush draw missed, I am willing to pay off a king, or a better hand, if he has it. Looking back, there might have been value in betting, hoping to get paid off by a ten or by a weaker queen (QJ and QT come to mind). But at the time, I felt that there was more value in checking.

Three-Betting and Beyond 69

Hand Five

Stakes: 25NL Relevant Stack Sizes and Initial Reads: BTN ($13.50) is playing 19/12 over 278 hands with a BTN steal of 71% (7) and

a Fold to Three-Bet of 67% (6)

Hero ($25.00) is in the SB

Action: The BTN opens to $0.75, I three-bet from the SB to $2.25 with A♠ 9♠, and villain responds with an all-in four-bet of $13.50. I fold.

Analysis: Since my opponent is playing a short-stack, I don’t expect him to call much preflop. He will either fold or four-bet facing my three-bet. He is opening from the button, a position from which I expect his opening range to be the widest. With the ace blocker, I resteal. Unfortunately, I get four-bet and have to fold. If he does end up calling, my hand is playable postflop.

If this villain opened from an earlier position, I would have simply folded. If he opened from the small blind, I would have flatted in position.

Hand Six

Stakes: 25NL Relevant Stack Sizes and Initial Reads: MP3 CO

($21) is playing 44/22 over 10 hands

($25.60) is 14/10 over 264 hands with a 67% (6) Fold to Three-Bet

Hero ($33.37) is on the BTN

Action: MP3 limps for $0.25, the CO isolates to $1.00, and I three-bet to $3.25 with J♥ T♦ from the BTN. Everyone folds and I take down the pot.

Analysis: With the weaker player limping in MP3, I expect a regular with competent stats to be isolating with a wide range. I therefore expect to have high fold equity when I three-bet the regular, who has shown he will fold to three-bets. If the original limper calls my three-bet I will have position, initiative, and equity with a hand that can flop a solid pair with a decent kicker or a good draw.

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Squeezing A squeeze occurs when one player raises, one or more additional players call, then a third player reraises to "squeeze" everyone out of the pot. The beauty of this play is that the other players are put to a test. Each has to decide whether to call, reraise, or fold. If they want to continue with the hand, they have to do so in the face of heavy strength and aggression. It is a very powerful play.

The dynamics behind profitable squeezing opportunities are different than those involved in three-betting a single opponent. For starters, most players these days are aware that squeezing is happening more. Therefore, both the initial raiser and the caller(s) are more likely to play back at you by four-betting or by calling.

Here are the main points to keep in mind before squeezing.

You will get fewer folds preflop than when you three-bet a single raiser.

In my database of 10NL and 25NL hands, I would elicit preflop folds 40% of the time, face a four-bet 15% of the time, and get a call (and thus see a flop) 45% of the time.

Taking into account the point above, you must have a plan in place for who you are targeting with your squeeze. You also need to consider what you plan to do if you face a four-bet or see a flop. Your target can be either the opening raiser or the caller. Just make sure you identify them early and select an appropriate range of hands with which to squeeze them.

For the examples in this section, I will focus mostly on squeezing with nonpremium hands and the dynamics behind my decision making.

Hand One Stake: 25NL 1 Relevant Stack Sizes and Initial Reads:

($32.87) is playing 28/21 over 108 hands and has folded to three-bets 4 out of 5 times

MP2 MP3

($25.77) is playing 14/12 over 324 hands

Hero ($28.16) is on the BTN

Action: MP2 raises to $0.75, MP3 calls, and I squeeze to $3.35 on the BTN with K♠ Q♣. The blinds and MP2 fold and MP3 calls.

The flop comes A♥ K♦ 6♠. MP3 checks and I check behind. The turn brings the K♣, giving me trips. MP3 now leads for $2.00 into $7.80 and I flat call.

Three-Betting and Beyond 71 The river is the J♠. Villain checks and I bet $7.00 into a pot of $11.80 which produces a fold.

Analysis: Preflop, KQ will play very well versus what I perceive to be MP2’s calling range when facing a squeeze. He is likely to call with dominated hands and random garbage against which my high broadway cards will play very well in position.

I expect MP3 to have mostly pocket pairs when flatting the raise. Therefore even if he calls, I can c-bet a lot of flops to take the pot away. I mostly expect him to fold to a three-bet though.

When MP2 folds and MP3 calls (which is the opposite of what I expected) I don’t see a lot of value in c-betting the flop. I am unconcerned about betting for balance, something I almost never do at the micros. Since the board is so dry, I don’t expect to get much value from worse hands. The turn is the best card in the deck for me and MP3 leads weakly.

I think there is merit to putting in a $5.00 raise on the turn. If my opponent has air, he is unlikely to fire again on the river. However, if he has any piece of the board, the price of a small raise should prove hard to resist and I expect him to continue. I do not like how I let him see a river so cheaply, on his terms.

On the river, once he checks, I fire a value bet and villain folds.

Hand Two

Stakes: 25NL Relevant Stack Sizes and Initial Reads: ($34.05) is playing 16/13 over 184 hands and has folded to 3 out of 4 three-bets

MP2

CO ($25.00) is playing 11/7 over 913 hands and has yet to fold to any of the

6 three-bets he has faced

Hero ($25.00) is in the BB

Action: MP2 opens to $0.75, the CO calls, and I squeeze to $3.10 from the BB with A♥ 6♥. Both villains fold and I take down the pot.

Analysis: I expect MP2 to be opening a wide range from middle position based on his VPIP. Since the Cutoff is a nit, I expect him to have mostly pocket pairs and some other weak hands in his flatting range. Also, since both players have competent stats, I expect them to play fairly straightforward (at least until I see differently).

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If called, a suited ace will play well postflop versus their calling ranges. If I face a four-bet, it is an easy fold.

Hand Three

Stakes: 25NL Relevant Stack Sizes and Initial Reads: MP1

($7.75) is playing 83/67 over 14 hands

MP2

($24.80) is playing 16/7 over 120 hands

Hero ($29.82) is in the CO

SB

($45.29) is playing 11/8 over 101 hands

Action: MP1 minraises to $0.50, MP2 calls, and I squeeze with A♦ K♠ to $2.35 from the CO. The SB, MP1, and MP2 all call.

The flop comes Q♠ T♠ 8♣. Everyone checks to me and I check back. The 4♠ hits the turn and the SB checks. MP1 bets $2.50 into $9.65. I call as does the SB. The river is the 8♦ and now the SB leads $9.50 into $17.15. MP1 calls and I fold.

The SB shows Q♣ Q♦ for a rivered full house. MP1 shows T♣ 2♣.

Analysis: Preflop I am targeting MP1, the short-stacked player who seemingly doesn't like to fold. Ideally, he would come over the top of my squeeze and I can play for stacks with my AK. When the small blind calls however, I am concerned. He should be aware that MP1 is short-stacked and is likely to shove the rest of his chips in. Given how tight he is preflop, the small blind's range should be very strong.

The flop is very connected and even though I have a gutshot, c-betting versus three players is suicidal. It is also likely that the small blind has queens or better here.

On the turn, the small blind checks. This surprises me and now I’m thinking that he might have jacks. MP1 bets small. With my gutshot, two overs, and flush draw, I call in position. If the small blind were to raise here, I would quickly fold. I prefer just calling the turn rather than raising to isolate MP1, especially since I am still not sure if the small blind is going to fold. If it was just myself and MP1 on the flop or on the turn, I would have gladly gotten the money in on either street.

Overall, I don’t like how the small blind played his hand on the turn. His preflop and flop play are fine, but he should lead the turn. The board is starting to get scary and he needs to protect his hand and to build a pot.

Three-Betting and Beyond 73

Hand Four

Stakes: 25NL Relevant Stack Sizes and Initial Reads: MP2 ($26.05) is playing 18/16 over 181 hands with a 14% (7) Fold to Three-Bet MP3

($15.00) is playing 33/10 over 21 hands

Hero ($24.85) is in the SB

Action: MP2 opens to $0.75, MP3 calls, and I squeeze from the SB with T♠ T♦.

MP2 calls and MP3 folds.

The flop comes J♣ 8♦ 3♣. I check and villain checks back. The turn is the 9♠.

I lead for $2.00 into $7.00 and my opponent folds.

Analysis: I am targeting both players preflop. MP2 is playing loosely and has called 6 of the 7 three-bets he has faced. I expect him to continue with lots of hands which don't fare well versus my tens. MP3 is a weak player with loose stats and 60 big blinds. He is another player whose range isn't particularly strong versus tens.

I expect to face a lot of resistance on this type of flop and I would not be happy facing a raise were I to c-bet. So I decide to pot control and to check and call if MP2 decides to fire. Also, my hand would look very strong betting this flop since I perceive my fold equity to be low.

Surprisingly, MP2 checks back. At this point I am putting him on some sort of low pocket pair. I put out a blocker bet on the turn to get some value but he folds.

Hand Five

Stakes: 25NL

Relevant Stack Sizes and Initial Reads:

UTG+1 SB

($25.00) is playing 12/6 over 17 hands

($15.25) has yet to play a hand

Hero ($25.00) is in the BB

Action: UTG+1 opens to $0.85, the SB calls, and I three-bet to $3.00 with J♠ J♥.

UTG+1 four-bets to $9.75, the SB calls, and I fold.

The flop comes T♥ 8♣ 7♥. The SB checks with only $5.50 behind and UTG+1 puts him all-in with $22.75 already in the pot. The SB calls with A♦ K♣. UTG+1

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has Q♦ Q♠. The A♠ on the turn and the 7♠ on the river send the $33.75 pot to the SB. Analysis: I don’t have a lot of reads on either player, but judging from stack sizes, the small blind seems like a weaker player. I am happy to isolate him preflop in position with jacks. I expect UTG+1 to continue with premium hands (QQ+, AK) but fold most others. Once he four-bets, my jacks are crushed, and I fold.

In this situation, calling preflop instead of three-betting is fine once in a while.

However, jacks don't play optimally versus multiple opponents, especially if you are out of position to one of the players. Three-betting is the better play, even if it means having to fold occasionally to a four-bet.

This hand illustrates an important lesson. Despite having excellent conditions for a squeeze, I had to give up on the hand and folded. Sometimes plays just don't work as you hoped and that's OK. It is important to avoid being results driven. Rather than focusing on the success or the failure of a play, concentrate on whether it was a good spot to attempt the play to begin with. That is how a good poker player thinks about the game.

Calling a Three-Bet Most players play poorly when faced with a three-bet. They either call or fold for the wrong reasons. There are four major reasons to call a three-bet.

1. You have good implied odds. You probably don’t have the best hand right now, but you are getting the right price to see a flop. You also have the type of hand that could win you a big pot if you hit.

These types of hands include pocket pairs which can flop sets and suited connectors or one-gappers which can hit trips as well as straight or flush draws. Pocket pairs are the easiest to play postflop if you are strictly setmining.

So what constitutes good implied odds?

A. Stack sizes. A benchmark when looking to play a speculative hand with limited reads is 20 to 1.

B. A specific read on the villain. You should consider taking less than 20 to 1 if you know that the villain has a very strong three-betting range and is likely to pay you off when you hit your hand. So if they have a

Three-Betting and Beyond 75 low Three-Bet (less than 2%) and a high C-Bet (greater than 70%), be more open to speculating.

C. Position. This isn’t nearly as important with pocket pairs as it is with suited connectors and suited one-gappers. If you are going to be in position and you have a read that a player doesn’t barrel excessively on flops and on turns, you can proceed with less than 20 to 1 odds.

2. You are trapping. This is normally done with very strong made hands like kings and aces versus opponents with really loose three-betting ranges who are likely to fold to four-bets. There are times when you should also call with TT – QQ and AK for the same reasons.

3. You face a min three-bet giving you 20 to 1 or better odds and you could potentially show your hand down cheaply. Your hand doesn’t intrinsically have good implied odds, like a pocket pair or a suited connector, but has showdown value like QJo or A9s. Without a specific read, your plan in this scenario is to call one bet if you hit and often to give up unimproved on later streets.

4. A player is getting out of line with their three-betting. A good illustration is someone who three-bets 15% to 20% of their hands from the blinds facing a steal. In this scenario, you should be looking to just flop a pair or a draw and get value.

Example: You notice that an opponent is three-betting a wide range of Ax and Kx hands along with random suited junk hands. In this case, flatting a three-bet in position with hands like QTs and KJo should be more profitable than four-betting them or folding them.

I should note that this is an area where many micro and small stakes players exhibit big leaks. They make false assumptions about just how frequently they are being three-bet by a specific villain and call too loosely with hands that are too marginal.

Here are seven hand examples from my 2011 Challenge in which I called a preflop three-bet.

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Hand One

Stakes: 25NL Relevant Stack Sizes and Initial Reads:

Hero ($25.10) is in MP1

SB

($35.32) is playing 14/11 over 585 hands with a 3% Three-Bet

Action: I pick up A♦ A♠ in MP1 and open to $0.85. It folds around to the SB who three-bets to $3.00. The BB folds and I call.

The flop comes 7♥ 4♥ 2♦. The SB c-bets $3.50 into $6.25 and I call. The turn brings the 7♠ pairing the board. The villain checks and calls my $6.00 bet into $13.25. The river completes the flush with the 5♥. My opponent checks again.

I push $12.60 into $25.25 and he calls with Q♠ Q♦.

Analysis: I open from early position and face a three-bet from a player in the blinds with reasonable preflop stats. When regulars three-bet from the blinds versus early position raisers, their range is often very strong (QQ+, AK).

The problem with four-betting in this situation is that I telegraph the strength of my hand and give my opponent an opportunity to fold everything but kings and aces. Moreover, I will likely get postflop action from those hands anyway.

Postflop, I sometimes prefer raising this type of flop texture. Raising can often induce shoves by overpairs while ensuring that my action isn't killed by a scare card. In this specific example, a seven, a heart, or an ace could have potentially shut down my opponent. But in this case, my opponent seemed determined to call down even though the board ran out very poorly for his hand.

Hand Two Stakes: 25NL Relevant Stack Sizes and Initial Reads:

Hero ($25.00) is in MP3

CO

($79.66) is playing 23/19 over 52 hands with a 14% (14) Three-Bet

BTN

($35.14) is playing 18/9 over 89 hands

Action: I open from MP3 with 8♥ 8♦ and the CO three-bets to $2.60. The BTN cold calls, I call for $1.85 more, and we go to the flop three-handed. The flop comes K♣ 5♦ 2♥. I check, the CO bets $4.75 into $8.15, the BTN folds, and I fold.

Three-Betting and Beyond 77 Analysis: The key to this hand is the button who overcalls. Without him calling, I likely have to fold my hand. While a decent hand, eights are a fairly standard fold 100 big blinds deep when faced with a three-bet from an aggressive player.

Moreover, I need to consider that I am out of position and am only getting 14 to 1 odds. This is not nearly enough versus a player with a wide preflop range that won't often pay me off if I hit my hand. When the button calls however, good things happen.

I am now getting 27 to 1 implied odds.

I have relative position postflop (I define and discuss the idea of relative position in more detail in Chapter 9). When I check to the original raiser, I get to see his action and the action of the preflop overcaller before having to act. So in a way, I am last to reveal anything about my hand on the flop. I have the benefit of seeing my opponents define their hands before I make any decisions.

With a multi-way pot, the three-bettor is more likely to play straightforward.

These three things take away the two big advantages that a three-bettor would have were we just heads up: weak implied odds for me and absolute position for him.

Hand Three

Stakes: 25NL Relevant Stack Sizes and Initial Reads:

Hero ($25.00) is in MP2

SB

($19.73) is playing 8/6 over 354 hands with a 5% Three-Bet

Action: I open 6♣ 6♠ from MP2 to $0.75 and get three-bet from the SB to $3.00.

The BB folds and I fold as well.

Analysis: This villain is tight. More importantly however, he starts with an 80 big blind stack. With his three-bet to 12 big blinds, I am given around 9 to 1 implied odds. This is simply not enough to speculate, so I make the disciplined fold.

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Hand Four Stakes: 10NL Relevant Stack Sizes and Initial Reads:

Hero ($10.21) is in MP3

CO

($12.43) is playing 80/40 over 10 hands

Action: I open A♣ J♥ to $0.30 from MP3. The CO three-bets me to $0.50 and I call. The flop comes 9♠ 4♦ 3♦. I check and the CO pushes his remaining $11.93 into the $1.15 pot. I fold.

Analysis: Out of position to an aggressive, fully-stacked, relatively unknown villain, AJo would normally be a fold. However, I decide to call the minraise getting great odds to try to hit a pair.

Postflop, I miss completely and chuckle as the villain overbet shoves the flop as a c-bet. If I had hit an ace or a jack and the villain shoved, my decision to call would be based on my risk tolerance and on the state of my bankroll.

Despite the small sample, I imagine this would be a +EV call although a high variance one.

Hand Five

Stakes: 10NL Relevant Stack Sizes and Initial Reads: MP2

($5.28)

Hero ($19.90) is in the CO

BB

($8.33) is playing 43/14 over 7 hands

Action: MP2 limps for $0.10 and I raise him to $0.40 from the CO with Q♠J♠.

Two players fold and the BB three-bets to $0.90. MP2 folds and I call the remaining $0.50 and see a flop in position.

The flop comes A♠ Q♣ 2♣. Villain c-bets $0.80 into $1.95 and I call. I hit trips when the Q♦ falls on the turn. Villain checks, I bet $1.60 into $3.55, and the villain folds.

Analysis: Villain is an unknown. But based on his stack size, stats up to this point, and bet sizing, I assume he is a weak player. Preflop, I am getting implied odds of 17.5 to 1, I will have position, and I expect this player to make major mistakes postflop.

Three-Betting and Beyond 79 The flop is an easy call with my pair and backdoor draws. Given the low stack-to-pot ratio, I value bet small to induce action once I hit my trips on the turn. He folds and I win the hand.

Hand Six

Stakes: 25NL Relevant Stack Sizes and Initial Reads:

Hero ($42.56) is in the CO

BTN SB

($13.02)

($55.95) is playing 54/23 over 35 hands

Action: I open 7♥ 6♥ from the CO. The BTN calls and the SB squeezes to $2.25.

I call for an additional $1.50 and the BTN folds.

The flop comes K♥ T♦ T♠. With $5.50 in the pot, the SB checks and I check behind. The turn brings the A♦. The SB once again checks and I follow suit.

The 4♠ falls on the river and my opponent suddenly comes alive, betting $4.20 into the $5.50 pot. I fold.

Analysis: Once again, stack sizes are key to this hand. Even if the button folds after I call, I am still getting 38 to 1 to continue. After I miss postflop, I just give up.

After the villain checks twice, you might be tempted to bet to take the pot away, but I wouldn’t recommend it. A large portion of the time, you are going to run into a check-call or a check-raise.

When a player checks this type of board texture after three-betting preflop, it is almost never to check-fold. They either: Hit a monster (kings full, quads, trips) Have a hand with showdown value (jacks, queens) Have a good enough hand that they decide to slowplay for whatever reason (aces, top pair with top kicker, top pair with good kicker like KQ or KJ) It is important to note that the vast majority of the time, your profit comes from making hands after calling preflop, not trying to bluff if you miss. Don’t turn profitable preflop play into postflop spew.

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Hand Seven

Stakes: 10NL Relevant Stack Sizes and Initial Reads:

Hero ($10.00) is on the BTN

SB

($4.23) is playing 28/21 with a Three-Bet of 6% over 144 hands

Action: I open K♥ J♦ for $0.30 from the BTN. The SB three-bets me to $0.50. I call the remaining $0.20 and see a flop.

The flop comes J♠ 7♣ 3♥. The villain c-bets $0.60 into $1.05 leaving himself $3.23 behind. I minraise, he shoves, and I call. I get the bad news as he shows me A♣A♦

and I fail to improve.

Analysis: In this hand, the villain is playing very loosely and giving me a great price to play my hand in position. In addition, he begins the hand with around 42 big blinds. I see limited value in four-betting preflop. There is no reason to gamble when I can take a flop in position and get my money in with better equity should I hit the flop.

The flop is gin for me in this situation. Villain c-bets for around 60% of the pot and I put in a minraise to induce action. He obliges me with a shove and I run into the top of his range.

The combination of stack sizes, his preflop raise size, his loose and aggressive preflop stats, and the strength of my hand made this an easy preflop call and an easy postflop stack-off.

Four-Betting There are two main reasons to four-bet preflop.

1. For value. You have a strong hand with which you want to build a pot. You are happy to get all the money in preflop versus the three-bettor.

2. As a bluff. If you plan to fold to a five-bet, your four-bet is a bluff. You should have a specific read that the following are both true about the villain: A. He is three-betting with a range that includes a lot of weak hands.

B. He is likely to fold to a four-bet. This needs to be emphasized. There are players who three-bet a very wide and a very weak range (with hands like K9o) but also like calling four-bets. Don't four-bet these players lightly.

Three-Betting and Beyond 81 As I discussed in the previous section on three-betting, it is important to be able to identify if your four-bet is for value or a bluff. It is also important not to be result oriented after you make your decision. Just because you four-bet for value doesn’t mean another player won’t occasionally show up with a better hand. Additionally, just because you picked a great spot to four-bet as a bluff doesn’t mean you won’t get shoved on.

Sizing Your Four-Bet Given the typical scenario of 100 big blind stacks, a 3 to 3.5 big blind open and a 9 to 11 big blind three-bet, the standard four-bet size is 25 big blinds. You want to bet the minimum that forces your opponent to either shove or fold and 25 big blinds accomplishes this. If you make it any more, your bluffs start becoming too expensive. If you make it any less, you give your opponents good odds to flat call your four-bet.

As mentioned above, versus unknowns or known calling stations, you should not be four-bet bluffing. So feel free to size your four-bets larger for value against them.

What are Some Reasons to Four-Bet as a Bluff?

Any one reason below shouldn’t provide enough justification to convince you four-bet light. As these reasons increase however, you should be more willing to put in a four-bet bluff.

The villain is a regular with a high Three-Bet percentage (8%+ in full ring and 10%+ in six-max).

The villain has a high Fold to Four-Bet percentage.

The villain three-bets from the button or the cutoff.

You open from a steal position.

You have blockers like Ax or Kx. You have seen the villain three-bet light before.

Here are some hand examples taken from my 2011 database in which I four-bet.

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Hand One Stakes: 25NL Relevant Stack Sizes and Initial Reads:

Hero ($31.37) is in MP3

SB

($51.15) is playing 28/18 over 169 hands with a Three-Bet of 14% (59)

Action: I open A♠ A♣ from MP3 to $0.85. Two players fold and the SB threebets to $2.25. The BB folds and I four-bet to $6.50. Villain calls the $4.25 and we see a flop.

The flop comes K♦ 9♥ 7♦. Villain checks. I bet $6.00 into $13.25 and he moves all-in. I call the remaining $18.87 and he flips over 5♠5♦.

The 3♦ comes on the turn, giving him a flush draw, but the 6♠ on the river sends the pot my way.

Analysis: I open from the hijack and face a three-bet from a LAG in the small blind. Since I am 125 big blinds deep and most players don’t three-bet hijack opens lightly from the small blind, I four-bet for value. I opened for pot preflop and four-bet to 26 big blinds versus his 9 big blind three-bet.

Postflop, my hand plays itself. Given the low stack-to-pot ratio, I bet small to get value or to induce action from worse and the villain complies.

Hand Two

Stakes: 10NL Relevant Stack Sizes and Initial Reads:

Hero ($12.68) is UTG

MP1

($5.30) is playing 6/3 over 32 hands

MP3

($6.23) is playing 17/17 over 6 hands

BTN

($9.91) is playing 30/30 over 10 hands

Action: I raise A♣ A♠ UTG to $0.35. Both MP1 and MP3 call and the BTN puts in a large three-bet to $1.90. I four-bet to $3.45, MP3 moves all-in for $6.23, the BTN moves all-in for $9.91, and I call.

MP3 flips over J♣

J♦ and the BTN flips over K♦ K♠. MP3 hits a jack on the flop, but I spike a set on the river and take down the $26.55 pot.

Analysis: I open and get cold called by a nit and an unknown. Both are shortstackers and face a large three-bet squeeze by an active unknown with 99 big blinds. Because of the huge three-bet size, I four-bet to the smallest amount

Three-Betting and Beyond 83 possible (which, at 35 big blinds, still commits me). This allows any of the players to call or to shove while leaving open a window of perceived fold equity.

Given the two cold callers with small stacks and the huge three-bet, I would never four-bet as a bluff in this spot.

Hand Three

Stakes: 25NL

Relevant Stack Sizes and Initial Reads:

Hero ($25.90) is in the CO

BTN

($122.79) is playing 19/16 over 734 hands with a 9% Three-Bet

Action: I raise to $0.75 from the CO with A♦ 7♦ and the BTN three-bets me to $2.25. Both blinds fold and I four-bet to $5.75. The BTN folds and I take the pot.

Analysis: I open from the cutoff and get three-bet by an active LAG on the button.

Given that I raised from a steal position, I expect my opponent to three-bet me lightly more frequently with position. My hand is good to four-bet as a bluff for two reasons: 1. I hold an ace blocker to his value hands (AQ, AK, and AA).

2. If he does elect to call, my hand has postflop playability.

Hand Four

Stakes: 25NL Relevant Stack Sizes and Initial Reads:

Hero ($25.18) is in MP3 ($25.73) is playing 13/9 over 131 hands with a Three-Bet percentage of 7% (42)

CO

Action: I open to $0.75 from MP3 with A♥ 5♥ and the CO three-bets to $2.50.

Everyone else folds and I four-bet to $5.75. The CO folds and I take down the pot.

Analysis: This hand is very similar to the last one even though the villain in this hand is a TAG. I open from the hijack and face a three-bet from the cutoff. The villain has been sufficiently active in his three-betting over my sample size and I hold a suited ace with a wheel card. All this adds up to a profitable four-bet opportunity.

I four-bet to 23 big blinds and take it down.

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Hand Five

Stakes: 25NL Relevant Stack Sizes and Initial Reads:

Hero ($27.90) is UTG

MP1

($15.19) is playing 22/15 over 291 hands

BTN

($13.60) is playing 78/33 over 10 hands

Action: I raise UTG to $0.75 with A♣ K♣. MP1 calls and the BTN three-bets to $1.25. It folds around to me and I move all-in. MP1 folds and the BTN calls his remaining $12.35.

Villain flips over A♠ Q♣ and I am liking my chances. The board runs out in my favor and I scoop a $28.30 pot.

Analysis: With AKs and facing a min three-bet squeeze from a half-stacked maniac, my best option is to just shove. Not shoving here with AK and fourbetting to 24 big blinds is a common mistake.

These type of players will often just flat your four-bet and see a flop. So I want to make sure I see all five cards with my hand by shoving. It also allows me to win all their money. The last thing I want to do is allow my opponent to see a flop with a weaker hand and subsequently fold to a shove.

Hand Six

Stakes: 10NL Relevant Stack Sizes and Initial Reads:

Hero ($10.85) is UTG+1

MP3

(24.02) is playing 36/27 over 33 hands with a 14% (7) Three-bet

Action: I open K♦ K♠ from UTG+1. MP3 three-bets me to $1.20. After everyone else folds, I return the favor and four-bet to $3.30. Villain calls. The flop comes 6♦ 4♠ 2♥ and I c-bet $2.00 into $6.75. Villain calls again.

The 2♦ comes on the turn. I bet $3.00 into $10.75 and my opponent minraises, putting me all-in. I call and see the dreaded A♦ A♣. The river is a blank and he scoops the pot.

Analysis: I four-bet for value due to this player’s loose stats and high Three-bet percentage. Once he calls the four-bet, the stack-to-pot ratio is small enough

Three-Betting and Beyond 85 such that I can make small bets and still get stacks in by the river. Once again, I want to give him the option to call or to raise me at any point.

Seeing his slow-played aces in that spot made for a cooler. I would have gladly gotten all the money in preflop or on any of the postflop streets.

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PLAYING VERSUS A STEAL

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lot of players have a hard time playing from the blinds versus an open from the cutoff or the button since they will be out of position throughout the hand. As always, your options are calling, three-betting, and folding.

After doing analysis on my own database, Iâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;ve come to this conclusion: Initiative + Position > Card Advantage Initiative + Card Advantage > Position So what does this mean? If you have initiative and position you can play weaker cards. If you have initiative and strong cards, you can play profitably out of position. In both cases, initiative is important.

Basically this means you shouldnâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;t call much from the blinds looking to connect with the flop, since you will be out of position without the initiative. Calling is often an unprofitable play whereas three-betting is often a profitable one.

Folding is a great way to minimize your losses.

There are spots when calling is OK and I'll get to those later. First, look at my overall stats from the blinds when facing a steal from the cutoff or the button (figure 7-1).

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Figure 7-1. Stats when facing a steal from the cutoff or button

Note that these are not my Versus Steal stats since those would include small blind steals as well. I removed the times the small blind raised and I was in the big blind since being in position in that capacity would completely change the dynamic of the situation.

I can already tell you that over that sample, my play is too loose and passive from the big blind. I would like to see me reduce my VPIP and increase my preflop raise.

Next, I'll discuss four graphs from my database. Since my results span 10NL through 100NL, the results are listed in big bets instead of dollars. In each situation, I am in the blinds and face an open from either the cutoff or the button.

Graph One: Steal Attempt, I Three-Bet This graph (figure 7-2) and corresponding stats (figure 7-3) make sense.

Figure 7-2. Showdown and non showdown winnings when three-betting

Playing Versus a Steal 89

Figure 7-3. Stats when three-betting from the blinds

Both my showdown and non showdown winnings are consistently positive in this scenario. Part of this could be attributed to having a strong range which allows me to barrel postflop if called. When I do this, I am winning between 75% and 80% of the time.

Graph Two: Steal Attempt, I Call As you can see in figure 7-4, the trend is very different when I elect to just call.

Figure 7-4. Showdown and non showdown winnings when calling

Figure 7-5. Stats when calling from the blinds

While I am winning from the big blind (see figure 7-5), I am losing from the small blind at a greater rate than if I just folded. Folding equals a net loss of around

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24 BB/100. Moreover, although I am only winning between 30% and 40% of the time, the small blind has a much lower winning percentage than the big blind.

The main reason for this is that by calling from the small blind, I am inviting squeezes and overcalls. It is much easier to win a heads up pot than it is to win a three-way pot, especially when you are always out of position.

Graph Three: Select Hands, I Three-Bet To discount the effects of hand strength, I ran a filter in which I selected the following range: 99 – JJ, KJ – KQ, A9s – AQs, AJ – AQ These are hands I will sometimes call with and will sometimes three-bet. Here is what happens when I three-bet those hands (figure 7-6).

Figure 7-6. Showdown and non-showdown winnings when three-betting a range of 99–JJ, KJ–KQ, A9s–AQs, AJ–AQ

Figure 7-7. Stats when three-betting a range of 99 – JJ, KJ – KQ, A9s – AQs, AJ – AQ

As you can see, figure 7-6 is very similar to my general three-betting graph (figure 7-2, page 88). Both my showdown and non-showdown winnings are positive.

Similarly, I am winning between 75% and 80% of the time.

Playing Versus a Steal 91

Graph Four: Select Hands, I Call Figure 7-8 represents the same group of hands as figure 7-6, but this time I elect to just call.

Figure 7-8. Showdown and non-showdown winnings when calling a range of 99–JJ, KJ–KQ, A9s–AQs, AJ–AQ

Figure 7-9. Stats when calling a range of 99 – JJ, KJ – KQ, A9s – AQs, AJ – AQ

Even though I should be close to break-even given my expected value, the general pattern is nowhere near what it is when I am three-betting. This is true even when adjusted for expectation.

Before I discuss spots where calling from the blinds is the best play, remember this: the majority of the time when faced with a single raiser from late position, you should be debating whether to three-bet or to fold not whether to three-bet or to call.

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Three-Betting Versus a Steal I will address this scenario first since it should be your default play if you are planning to proceed with the hand.

You should three-bet from the blinds for many of the same reasons you would three-bet in general.

You have a strong value hand and you hope to get action. Versus steals by regulars, a good default range for this is TT+, AQ+, and KQs. The looser the villain, the wider this range should be.

You have a weaker hand, but any of the following apply: A. You have a read that your opponent frequently folds preflop.

B. You have a good postflop read on your opponent. Although they donâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;t fold a lot preflop, they frequently fold to c-bets postflop if they miss.

C. The villain calls with a wide range of dominated hands like Q8s, J9s, and A5s. You can then three-bet wider with hands like QJs and ATs for value.

Calling Versus a Steal While you should not be looking to call from the blinds often, there are good reasons to do it.

You have a small or a medium pocket pair and the pot is likely to go multiway. Additionally, 66-88 in the small blind will often be a call regardless of your reads on the players still in the hand.

You have high broadway cards and are targeting a weaker player. An example would be if you have AJo in the small blind facing a middle position limp by a 40/24 with a 75 big blind stack and a regular on the button who isolates them. Calling the AJo is preferable to three-betting.

Three-betting will likely push the weaker player out of the hand, re-isolating you versus the reg. Since you expect the reg to be isolating the weaker player with a wide range, you donâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;t want to fold.

Playing Versus a Steal 93 You have a strong hand but the opener folds to a lot of three-bets. This doesn’t happen often. But if you find that someone is folding to a lot of three-bets (80% or more over a good sample size), call with some of your stronger hands likes AK, KK, and AA. You are in the big blind versus a player who has a high Steal percentage but a low Fold to Three-Bet percentage. He likes to open for 3x or lower, usually minraising from the steal positions. You don’t want to inflate the pot out of position, but you do want to see the flop with a wider range. A good range to call with would be: 22 – 88, A2s – ATs, ATo – AJo, 89s – QJs, QTs, K9s – KJs, and QJo – KJo. You are playing with deep stacks and big implied odds with a hand that could flop very strong like a suited ace or a pocket pair.

Here are some hands that I played during my 2011 Challenge in which I ended up calling preflop.

Hand One Stakes: 25NL Relevant Stack Sizes and Initial Reads: CO

($25.00) is playing 12/9 over 110 hands

Hero ($25.63) is in the SB

BB

($11.16) is playing 25/16 with a 10% Three-Bet over 81 hands

Action: The CO raises to $0.85, I call in the SB with 6♥ 6♣, and the BB squeezes to $2.40. The CO and I both fold.

Analysis: Preflop I like a call. Versus a squeeze, it is close between folding or shoving once the Cutoff folds. This is especially valid given stacks sizes and reads. I think eights or better would be a great reshove, but sixes are just marginal enough to where I lean towards folding.

Hand Two

Stakes: 25NL

Relevant Stack Sizes and Initial Reads:

MP1

($11.95) is playing 20/0 over 10 hands

MP3

($22.42) is playing 23/0 over 85 hands

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($26.43) is playing 22/13 over 121 hands

Hero ($29.10) is in the SB

BB

($40.39) is playing 14/5 over 261 hands

Action: MP1 and MP3 limp for $0.25 and the CO isolates to $0.75. I call in the SB with 9♦ 9♥, the BB folds, and both limpers call.

The flop comes A♣ K♠ 2♦ and everyone checks. The 9♣ falls on the turn and I fire $2.25 into $3.25. Everyone folds.

Analysis: Here is another opportunity to go to the flop multi-way with a pocket pair. Postflop, I plan on check-folding the flop. Once I turn a set, I lead for value and take it down.

Hand Three

Stakes: 10NL Relevant Stack Sizes and Initial Reads: BTN

($22.69) is playing 17/9 over 148 hands

Hero ($22.09) is in the SB

BB

($13.57) is playing 11/0 over 20 hands

Action: The BTN minraises to $0.20 and I flat in the SB with A♣6♣.

The BB folds and I go to the flop heads up. The flop comes A♥ T♠ 6♦. I check, the villain pots it for $0.50, and I call.

The Q♦ comes on the turn and we both check. When I river the 4♥, I bet $1.20 into $1.50, and my opponent calls with A♦ J♣.

Analysis: Facing a minraise from a player on the button when I am 240 big blinds deep makes A6s an easy call. This is a hand that can flop well with the nut flush draw or with a disguised two-pair.

I feel that apart from my river play, I misplayed this hand egregiously postflop.

Once I flopped two-pair, I should have check-raised the flop and then gone for two more streets of value.

Given how I played the hand on the flop, I prefer leading the turn rather than checking.

Playing Versus a Steal 95

Hand Four

Stakes: 25NL Relevant Stack Sizes and Initial Reads: ($43.86) is playing 13/10 over 248 hands and has folded to 1 out of 3 three-bets

CO

Hero ($30.85) is in the BB

Action: The CO opens to $0.85 and I call for $0.60 in the BB with J♦ T♦. The flop comes A♥ J♠ 7♥. I check and the villain checks behind.

The 6♦ comes on the turn. I lead for $1.00 into $1.80 and the villain calls. The 9♦ comes on the river and we both check. Villain shows down K♥ Q♠ and I take down the $3.80 pot.

Analysis: I am roughly 125 big blinds deep and have a hand that hits a lot of boards. Since I am closing the action, I am happy to see a flop for a discount.

My initial plan is to check-call the flop. But once the Cutoff checks back, I lead the turn for value. On the river, I don't expect to get value from worse hands, so I don’t think there is any value in betting.

If faced with a bet on the river, I would fold since I can see the 9♦ giving my opponent two-pair or a straight. He could have also flopped a pair of aces and decided to pot control on the flop and on the turn.

Hand Five

Stakes: 25NL Relevant Stack Sizes and Initial Reads: ($25.10) is playing 12/6 over 394 hands with a 2% Three-Bet. He has an Aggression Factor of 1.1 and has folded to 3 out of 4 three-bets preflop.

BTN

Hero ($27.82) is in the BB.

Action: The BTN opens for $1.00 and I call in the BB with A♠4♠.

The flop comes A♣ 5♦ 3♠ and I check-call a $1.50 c-bet into $2.10. The 2♣ comes on the turn and I lead for $3.50 into a pot of $5.10. The BTN folds and I take down the pot.

Analysis: Closing the action, I am happy to take a flop with this hand versus a tight, passive villain. I hit top pair plus a gutshot on the flop and check-call.

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On the turn, I make the effective nuts and I lead for value. I expect to get called by any draw and any top pair with a decent kicker or better. He quickly folds and I take it down.

If I had a hand like A9o or JTo, I would look to three-bet or to fold in this exact same spot preflop.

Blind Versus Blind Throughout this chapter, I specifically excluded big blind versus small blind situations. Here's why. When you are in the big blind and face a steal from the small blind, you are in position postflop. When facing a raise from the cutoff or the button however, you are out of position postflop.

Because of this difference, players who open from the small blind and face a three-bet from the big blind tend to four-bet more frequently. Some of the hands they four-bet with are hands they would call with in position had they opened from the button. Therefore, you should consider three-betting a tighter range versus small blind opens compared to button opens. You should call with a wider range versus small blind opens however.

How you play against an opponent in this situation depends a lot on your reads.

Pay specific attention to: How wide he steals from the small blind. This will give you a sense of the range you will face.

How often he folds preflop to three-bets after opening from the small blind.

How often he continuation bets flops and turns.

If a player likes to open wide and to c-bet wide, call with a wide range preflop and on the flop. Follow up by betting just about any turn if checked to. If he opens wide but folds to a lot of three-bets however, three-bet with junky hands and call with premium ones.

Whatever you decide, understand that you have a lot of power in these situations.

Take full advantage of it.

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CONTINUATION BETTING

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ontinuation betting is one of the most common plays in No Limit Hold'em.

Unfortunately, this also makes it one of the most commonly misplayed situations. Many players think that because they raised preflop, they need to continuation bet. This just isn't true. You need to have a specific reason for betting and a plan for subsequent action.

Flop Dynamics When deciding if you should c-bet, ask yourself the following questions (in roughly the order presented).

What is the texture of the flop?

Look at whether the flop has a wet or a dry texture. A wet flop texture contains many possible draws as well as potential made straights or flushes. A dry flop texture has limited or no possible draws. Therefore, you should expect to have less fold equity on wet flops than on dry flops.

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An example of a quintessential wet flop is 9♥ 8♥ 7♥. There are numerous straights, flushes, and two-pairs already on this board with lots of hands that have draws or some equity.

On the other hand 8♠ 2♦ 2♥, and Q♣ 7♥ 2♦, are two examples of dry boards.

There are no straight draws or flush draws, so there are fewer hands that connect with this board, and thus fewer that can continue when faced with a c-bet.

Secondly, look for the presence of high cards. You are most likely to get folds on dry boards which include a queen, king, or ace.

How does your hand connect with the flop?

Evaluate the absolute strength of your hand. The absolute strength of a hand (as opposed to the relative strength of a hand, which we will examine below) is defined as your hand value on a given flop.

Example: If you hold Q♠ Q♥ on a 5♥ 2♦ 2♠ flop, you have two-pair. If you have T♦ 9♣ on a K♥ Q♥ J♣, you have a straight. Straights are rarer, and thus more valuable, than two-pair. Two pair are rarer, and thus more valuable, than one-pair hands. Easy enough?

How many players are there in the hand?

The more players there are on the flop, the more likely it is that someone has connected. A situation with lots of players on the flop is great for your very strong hands but bad for your marginal and weak ones.

What are your reads on the opponents?

Look for how loose or tight your opponents are preflop (and thus how likely they are to have connected with the flop) and how they tend to play postflop (mostly how they respond to c-bets on flops and on turns).

To do this, look at your opponent’s VPIP and Preflop Raise to roughly figure out their likely hand range given the preflop action. Then evaluate the flop texture and try to figure out how their hand connected with the flop. I will elaborate on this process more in chapter 10.

Example: If you raise from UTG and get called by a 13/11 TAG in MP1, you can assign a general range of pocket pairs (22 – QQ, sometimes KK), mid

Continuation Betting 99 to high suited connectors (78s – AKs), and strong broadways (AJs – AQs, AK). Modify this range for any specific opponent based on hands you see them take to showdown.

Assigning such preflop ranges to different opponents is both a science and an art and takes lots of practice. It is fundamental for being able to read hands.

Next, open up the pop-up and examine how often they fold, call, and raise facing c-bets. This should give you a rough idea of the most profitable way to proceed against them. Keep in mind that just because you connected strongly with the flop doesn’t mean that continuation betting is the most profitable play.

Example: You raise 7♠ 7♥ from UTG and get called by the button who is playing 15/14 and has a 62% Fold to C-Bet over 1,235 hands. He tends to bet 60% of the time versus a missed c-bet. The flop comes Q♠ 7♦ 3♥. This is a great spot to check and let him either bluff or catch up by hitting a pair or a draw on the turn.

What are the stack-to-pot ratios (SPRs) Of the players still in the hand?

The lower the stack-to-pot ratio, the more lightly you should expect players to be willing to continue to your c-bets.

How many players have position on you?

You are more likely to get folds from players who are out of position against you.

You will tend to get called lighter and floated by players who have position on you. Thus, stab more when you are in position than when you are out of position.

Fold Equity Finally comes the critical step of sizing up your potential fold equity. Look at a mixture of the factors listed below when making that decision. In general: You will get more folds on dry flops with one or two high cards present.

You will get more folds with fewer players.

You will get more folds from players who have a high Fold to C-Bet stat.

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You will get more folds if you raised from an early position and your opponent seems component enough to realize that your range from those positions is stronger.

You will get more folds if you are in position.

Here are two hypothetical examples which combine all this.

Example One: High Fold Equity You raise from UTG and get called from the small blind by a loose player playing 22/8. The flop comes K♥ 8♦ 2♠. He checks to you. You check and see that he folds to 55% of c-bets over a sample size of 22. You should fire 100% of your range here.

You are facing a single opponent in position.

The flop is disconnected and dry. There are no possible straight or flush draws.

The flop has an obvious high card which is much more likely to hit your perceived range than the villain’s range. Lots of recreational players are aware of this.

Since the villain is playing loosely, expect him to have a lot of hands in his range which completely miss the flop (Ax, QJ, 9Ts, etc). Since his Fold to C-Bet is about average, expect him to play straightforward postflop.

You should fire about 50% to 55% of pot here with your whole range—strong, medium, or weak hands.

Example Two: Low Fold Equity You raise from the cutoff and are called by a loose-passive player on the button and an unknown player with 60 big blinds in the big blind. The flop comes 9♠ 6♥ 5♥. This situation is drastically different from the previous example in that: You are facing multiple opponents who are likely to have speculative (and thus wide) preflop ranges.

You are out of position against one of them.

You are unlikely to get credit for having much of a hand here due to your late position raise. Honestly, don’t expect your opponents to ever put you on any kind of a strong hand in this spot.

Continuation Betting 101 One of the players, if not both, are likely to have some piece of this flop due to all the draws.

Because of all this, you should not bet here without a strong made hand or a strong draw. Your bet sizing on this flop should vary. You should bet close to pot with strong hands (sets, straights, two-pairs, combo draws) and c-bet less with weaker holdings that you still think you can get value from but are ready to fold to a raise. I'll discuss bet sizing in more detail later on in this chapter.

You should never bet a hand with little or no equity in this spot though. You should also check some weak draws like A♠ 7♣ or 5♦ 4♦.

Most of the situations you face will be somewhere in between those two examples.

To Bet or Not to Bet? As mentioned earlier, having a good hand doesn't automatically mean that betting is the most profitable play. Here are the three main reasons to bet.

1. For value. You have a good made hand and can get value from worse hands by betting.

Example: You flop a set of tens on a T♥ 7♥ 5♠ board with two other players in the hand. There are lots of possible hands that your opponents will continue with here if you bet.

2. As a bluff. You are unlikely to win at showdown and you think that you have enough fold equity on the flop to make betting profitable.

Example: You have 6♠ 6♦ on an A♠ K♥ 5♦ board against a TAG that called your UTG raise on the button. Betting here is likely to fold out potentially better hands (77 – JJ) as well as hands that have good equity against you (67s – 9Ts, etc).

3. You have strong equity. You might not have a made hand yet, but a lot of turn cards can improve your equity and allow you to double barrel. This is especially true with draws.

Example: You raise A♣ Q♣ from MP1 and get two callers—a TAG on the button and a loose-passive in the small blind. The flop comes J♣ 7♣ 5♠. You have two overs, the nut flush draw, and a backdoor straight draw.

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Here are some good reasons to check: You’re giving up. You assess the situation and determine that you have little or no showdown or fold equity.

Example: You raise A♠ 2♠ from EP1 and get two callers—one in MP1 and one on the button. The flop comes T♦ 6♦ 5♦. Both villains are loose calling stations. Don't continue with the hand.

You want to slowplay. Just because you flopped a very strong hand doesn’t mean that you should slowplay. It is all about making plays that have the highest expected value. A good example is the T♥ 7♥ 5♠ hand from the previous page. In that particular situation, the correct play was to bet the set of tens and not slowplay.

Still, slowplaying can be an effective tactic verses the right opponent. If you have a read on a player that they tend to consistently bet when checked to and have a high Fold to C-Bet, look to trap them on dry boards.

You want to pot control. Do this in spots where you don’t want to build a big pot but have reasonable showdown value or have a draw. You can also pot control in way ahead or way behind situations. Like with slowplaying, I find that a lot of weaker players choose poor spots to pot control.

Example 1: You raise Q♥ 9♥ on the button and get called by an unknown from the BB. The flop comes A♠ Q♦ 2♣. Villain checks. This is a typical way-ahead or way-behind spot. If you are ahead here, you are likely to stay ahead on the turn and if you are behind you have limited outs to improve. Also, a worse hand is unlikely to call a flop c-bet but could possibly pick up some equity on the turn (with some sort of pair or draw) from which you could get value.

Example 2: Same spot as above but now you have A♥3♣.

This could also be a good spot to check behind if the villain folds to a lot of c-bets.

Example 3: You raise 5♦ 4♦ from the CO and get called by a loose-aggressive player from the small blind. The flop comes Q♦ 8♠ 5♥. You have bottom pair with a weak kicker and some backdoor draws. I would hate to bet and get raised on this flop so I'd check behind and take my equity to the turn.

Continuation Betting 103

Choosing a Bet Size As with preflop, having a standard bet size for all postflop situations is seldom optimal. You should always strive to tailor your bet sizes to a specific situation.

Table 8-1 suggests basic bet sizing amounts for the flop. The numbers represent the percentage of the pot that you would bet. So if the table lists 85% and the pot is $2.00 on the flop, you would bet $1.70.

Made Hand

Draw

Perceived Fold Equity

Strong

Weak

Strong

Weak

Low FE

85% to 100%

Check or 50% to 60%

75% to 85%

Check or 50% to 60%

Check

High FE

Check or 30% to 55%

30% to 60%

75% to 90%

50% to 60%

50% to 60%

No Hand

Table 8-1. Choosing a bet size

Basically, you should take cheap stabs if you think you have high fold equity with weak hands. Conversely, you should pump lots of money in spots where you have strong hands and limited fold equity.

For those who are concerned about an opponent picking up on different bet sizes and exploiting you, don't be. When was the last time you picked apart another regular due to his non-robotic bet sizing? In my opinion, 99% of players at your limit won’t ever realize what you are doing. The subtle differences in bet sizing will help you win more when you have strong hands and lose less when you don’t.

As always, here are some examples from actual hands that I played during the 2011 Challenge.

Hand One Stakes: 25NL Relevant Stack Sizes and Initial Reads:

Hero ($25.00) is UTG

SB

($25.00) is playing 18/9 over 545 hands with a 56% (25) Fold to C-Bet

Action: I raise preflop with T♦ T♣ to $0.75 and get one caller from the SB. The flop comes T♥ 6♠ 4♥. The villain check-calls my c-bet of $1.50 into $1.75.

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The turn is the 5♥ and the villain checks again. I bet $3.00 into $4.75 and get check-raised to $8.00. I make the call in position and go to the river.

The river is the 4♦, pairing the board. The villain moves all-in for $13.90 into $20.75 and I call. He flips over Q♥ J♥ for the turned flush, but I scoop the pot with my full house.

Analysis: I flop the nuts and can name a lot of hands which I can get value from on this flop. These include one-pair (77 – 99, JJ+, Tx), weaker sets, straight draws (23, 35, 57, 78, 89, 79, etc), and flush draws. It is also likely that this player has a lot of those hands in his range for calling my early position raise from the small blind. For all these reasons, my c-bet is on the large side. I fully expect this player to call a reasonably sized bet if he has any piece of this board.

The turn completes the flush draw as well as both ends of the straight draw.

I can still get value from a lot of other hands which might have picked up additional equity like J♥ Jx, A♥ Tx, etc. Once I get raised however, I now expect to be behind.

Still, by getting good immediate odds of 3.15 to 1 and having great implied odds as well, I elect to call. Even if the villain has the nuts, I have 23% equity to pair the river and win the pot. Villain could also be raising here with a weaker set of fours or of sixes.

The river plays itself. But if it had blanked and villain had shoved, I would have been in a tough spot. Sometimes I call here and sometimes I fold. But I think a fold is more often correct than a call.

Hand Two

Stakes: 10NL Relevant Stack Sizes and Initial Reads:

Hero ($11.21) is UTG+1

MP1

($12.52) is playing 18/0 over 23 hands

BTN

($11.79) is playing 6/6 over 36 hands

Action: I raise to $0.35 from UTG+1 with A♦A♠.

MP1 and the BTN both call. The flop comes A♣ 5♣ 5♠. I check and my opponents follow. The turn brings the 3♦. I lead for $0.50 into $1.20 and both players fold.

Analysis: After raising from early position, I flop an absolute monster with my aces. There is no reason to bet this flop since most hands in my opponent's range either miss completely or will be unwilling to continue due to the ace.

Continuation Betting 105 Even if my opponents have a hand with showdown value (like tens), I am never getting three streets of value. So I might as well show some weakness now in hopes of being rewarded later.

A key difference between this hand and the last is that my hand is a lock. I am not afraid of a flush or a straight coming in since I already have a full house.

Thus, I can give free cards without worrying that I might lose the hand. I stab on the turn hoping to get value from something but get two folds.

Hand Three

Stakes: 25NL Relevant Stack Sizes and Initial Reads:

Hero ($25.00) is in the CO

BB

($11.31) is playing 75/42 over 12 hands

Action: I raise from the CO to $0.75 with 9♦ 8♦. The BB is the only caller.

The flop comes T♦ 8♣ 3♣ and I c-bet $1.25 into $1.60. The BB calls. The turn is the 4♦. Once again I fire $1.25 into $4.10. The villain check-calls a second time.

The river brings the K♦ and my opponent checks for a third time. With $9.60 in the middle and a villain with only $6.50 left, I move all-in. He folds and I scoop the pot.

Analysis: I flop what is likely the best hand in position with back door straight and back door flush draws. I bet to extract value from worse hands and to protect my equity. If he was to check-raise this flop, I would simply fold since my hand would fare poorly versus his check-raising range.

When I improve on the turn, I bet again for the same reasons I bet the flop. My opponent calls again. When I hit gin on the river, I put him all-in for less than a pot-sized bet. If the river didn’t improve me, I would have simply taken the hand to showdown.

Hand Four Stake: 25NL

Relevant Stack Sizes and Initial Reads:

UTG

($33.75) is playing 31/13 over 214 hands with a 71% (7) Fold to C-Bet

Hero ($25.00) is in the CO

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Action: UTG limps preflop and I isolate him to $1.00 with K♠ T♠ from the CO. My opponent calls and we see a 9♣ 4♦ 3♠ flop. Villain checks. I bet $1.50 into $2.35 and he folds.

Analysis: I isolate a loose-passive limper with suited broadway cards in late position. On the flop, I have three reasons to c-bet.

1. Villain has a high Fold to C-Bet percentage.

2. It is a dry board, which likely missed him.

3. I have a lot of turn cards which I can barrel. More specifically: 4 aces, 3 kings, 4 queens, 4 jacks, 3 tens, and 7 other spades. That is a total of twenty-five cards which make up over half the deck. I would check back all other turns.

As played, I take the pot down on the flop.

Hand Five

Stakes: 25NL Relevant Stack Sizes and Initial Reads:

Hero ($25.80) is UTG

SB

($7.27) is playing 25/10 over 69 hands

BB

($49.63) is 26/19 over 75 hands

Action: I raise 6♠ 6♥ UTG and get called by both blinds. The flop comes J♠ T♦ 9♦. Both players check and I check behind. The turn is the T♥. Once again everyone checks through. The river brings the 7♣. The SB leads for $1.00 into $2.25 and everyone folds.

Analysis: Versus two loose players on the quintessential draw-heavy board, my best play is to give up unless I turn a set.

Hand Six Stakes: 25NL Relevant Stack Sizes and Initial Reads:

Hero ($25.33) is UTG ($34.99) is playing 17/2 over 47 hands and has folded to three out of three c-bets

SB

Continuation Betting 107 Action: I raise K♠ Q♠ from UTG and get called by the SB. The flop comes A♦ K♣ 2♠. My opponent checks and I check back.

The turn is the T♠ and villain leads for $1.00 into $1.75. I make the call and see the 2♦ fall on the river. My opponent checks and I take my hand to showdown.

The SB flips over 5♦ 5♠ and I win the $3.75 pot.

Analysis: On the flop, I am either way ahead (if he has a worse pair or a draw) or way behind (if he has an ace or better). There really aren't any turn cards that I'm afraid of. Given that he has folded to all three c-bets he has faced, there is no value in betting. There is value in allowing him to bluff the turn, however.

The turn improves me and my opponent leads. With my flush draw, straight draw, pair, and position, there is no value in raising. So I call. The river is a blank and I show down my hand since there are very few conceivable worse hands that would call a value bet.

N

9

I

N

E

FACING A

CONTINUATION BET

O

ften times when you call preflop and see a flop, you are going to face a continuation bet. In this section, I will discuss optimal lines to take depending on how strongly you connect with the flop and what reads you have on your opponent.

Just like in the previous chapter, once the flop is dealt, you should have two goals: 1. Evaluate the strength of your hand.

2. Decide on the most profitable way to play that hand.

Evaluating Hand Strength Remember that unless you are holding the nuts, the strength of your hand is relative. Here is a rough blueprint for how you should approach a hand when you are not the preflop raiser.

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Did you connect with the flop?

Most of the time if you miss the flop completely, you are just going to fold and move on to the next hand. This isnâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;t always the case however. A keen observer will often find profitable situations to float or to bluff (I will touch upon that later.) If you do manage to connect with the board, whether with a made hand or with a draw, you need to consider other factors.

What is your respective position?

By default, most players check to the preflop raiser. Therefore, the position of the preflop raiser is important when planning the hand. Moreover, position can be relative just like hand strength. Relative position (with respect to the preflop raiser) comes into play when there are three or more players in the hand.

Check out the following two examples. Both hands involve three players: the cutoff, the button, and the big blind. Stack sizes, stakes, player types, flop textures, and reads are irrelevant in order to illustrate this concept.

Example 1

In this example, the Cutoff raises while the Button and Big Blind both call. Most of the time, the Big Blind will automatically check to the Cutoff after the flop.

This dynamic is illustrated in figure 9-1.

BB

Acts Last

s ck

e ch

BTN Acts 2nd

Figure 9-1. Position dynamics 1

(PFR)

CO Acts 1st

Facing a Continuation Bet 111 Even though the Button has absolute position, the Big Blind has relative position, assuming that he checks and that the Cutoff bets. Here are a few scenarios with this consideration in effect.

Scenario 1: The Big Blind checks and the Cutoff has to make a decision. If the Cutoff decides to continuation bet the flop, the Button has a decision to make. He can either call, fold, or raise. After he makes his decision, the Big Blind has much more information about the strength of both hands.

Scenario 2: The Big Blind checks and again the Cutoff has a decision to make.

Assume that he checks as well. Now the Button has additional information with which to make a decision. Assuming he bets, the Big Blind now has information about the strength of each player's hand.

Scenario 3: What if both the Cutoff and the Button check? Then the players go to the turn and the Big Blind is first to act. But now he has information about both the Cutoff's and the Big Blind's hand. Of course the turn card changes things, but information is information.

Example 2

In this example, the Cutoff limps, the Button raises, and both the Big Blind and the Cutoff call. This dynamic is illustrated in figure 9-2.

BB

Acts 2nd

s ck

e ch

(PFR)

BTN Acts 1st

checks

CO

Acts Last

Figure 9-2. Position dynamics 2

Once again, the Button has absolute position. But assuming both players check

to him and he bets, the Cutoff now has relative position in the hand. He gets

to see what the Button and the Big Blind do before he has to make a decision.

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At any time however, the Big Blind or the Cutoff can donk bet3 into the preflop raiser. Most of the time though, they will just check. When they do, the Button need to be aware of the dynamics of relative position.

What is the flop texture like?

The combination of flop texture with the number of opponents should provide some quick insight into the potential strength of another player's hand. Like in the last chapter, I want you to pay attention to two main factors.

Is the flop wet or dry? Give more respect to players who bet wet flops.

Are there high cards present (queen, king, or ace)? These are great cards for preflop raisers to continuation bet so keep that in mind.

In general, you should give lots of respect to players who bet into multiple opponents on wet boards with no high cards. Conversely, you should give less respect to players in heads up situations who bet on dry boards with one or two high cards.

What are your reads on the opponent(s)?

When dealing with a preflop raiser, the two key stats to pay attention to are Preflop Raise and Flop Continuation Bet. All else being equal, the combination of those two stats should dictate how much respect to give your opponent if they c-bet. This concept is illustrated below (table 9-1).

Low PFR (< 10%)

High PFR (≥ 15%)

Low C-Bet (< 45%)

Maximum Respect

Medium to High Respect

High C-Bet (≥ 65%)

Medium to Low Respect

Minimum Respect

Table 9-1. Respecting a continuation bet

So although Flop C-Bet trumps Preflop Raise in the respect category, the combination of the two is still very important.

3

Betting into the preflop raiser before he has a chance to act is known as a donk bet. Don’t let the name bias you. Good players recognize situations where leading into the preflop raiser is correct.

Facing a Continuation Bet 113

How large are your opponent's bet sizes?

You should give more respect the bigger your opponent's bet.

Now comes the fun part—trying to quickly evaluate and assign weight to all the factors I discussed above.

Example One

A 19/17 SLAG raises from the cutoff. The table folds around and you call from the big blind. The flop comes Q♠ 7♦ 2♦. You quickly scan your HUD and see that the villain has a Flop C-Bet of 60%. You check and he bets 65% of the pot.

Here is quick recap of what you should consider.

This player is loose preflop and since he opened from the cutoff, he is likely to have a very wide range. Checking your stats to see how many steal attempts he has from this specific position will help provide a better feel for his range.

He is in position and heads up with you. Both of those factors increase the likelihood that he will c-bet a high percentage of the time.

In general, he tends to c-bet an above average percent of the time.

This flop texture is not very connected. There is one high card and a flush draw. You should expect this player to c-bet this type of board a high percentage of the time.

Taking everything into account, you should have limited respect for your opponent's continuation bet.

Example Two

A 13/11 TAG raises from UTG+1. A loose-passive player with 75 big blinds calls in middle position. You call on the button and both the blinds fold.

The flop comes J♠ 5♣ 4♣ and the TAG c-bets 75% of pot. His Flop C-Bet stat is a reasonable 50%. The loose-passive player calls.

You should consider the following.

The flop texture is more wet than it is dry since there are both straight and flush draws.

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The preflop raiser is betting into two other players, both of whom have position on him. He is playing fairly tight preflop and has raised from early position. He doesnâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;t have a high Flop C-Bet percentage, yet he fired a big bet on the flop. All of these actions signal strength.

Since the loose-passive player in middle positions called, he has likely connected with this flop. This should increase your requirements for continuing with the hand.

Armed with all this information, you should give these players a lot of respect and proceed only with good draws (eight outs or better) or with good made hands.

Make the Most Profitable Play Once you have a basic sense of how strong your opponents are, your next goal is to make the most profitable play. The fundamental steps involved in this decision making process are broken down in the following flowchart (figure 9-3).

Do you likely have the best hand?

YES

NO

Are you likely to get action from worse?

YES

Raise

How many outs to improve?

NO

6 or less

Call

Fold Equity?

GOOD

Raise

POOR

Fold

7 to 10

11or more

Fold Equity?

GOOD

Call/Raise

POOR

Call

Fold Equity?

GOOD

Raise

POOR

Raise/Call

Figure 9-3. Most profitable play flowchart

Let me emphasize that this chart is not set in stone. There are other key factors that should play a role in your decision making. These include:

Facing a Continuation Bet 115 Defining the Best Hand Many beginning poker players think of the “best hand” as having the winning hand if they were to go to showdown. However, your mindset should focus on the current equity you have in the hand.

Example: A small pair like 2♣2♦ on a J♥ T♥ 3♠ flop is the best hand versus K♥ Q♥ but only holds 28% equity with two cards to come. The next step in thinking would be to consider your equity versus a specific range. That is a fairly complex discussion that I will defer for another time. For now, just think about how many of your opponent's hands you are likely to beat and to stay ahead of.

Position. You can speculate more when you are in position or closing out the action.

Stack-to-Pot Ratio. The lower the SPR, the more willing you should be to play your hand fast and aggressively.

Possible Bad Turn Cards. You should avoid slowplaying the flop when you have a very good hand but a lot of turn cards could kill your action.

Example: You hold J♠ T♠ on a 9♣ 8♣ 7♦ board. Any club, ten, jack, five, or six could kill your action versus someone who might be willing to stack off with two-pair, a set, or a weaker straight. That accounts for 21 out of a possible 47 cards left in the deck. One of those cards will come off roughly 45% of the time.

Nut versus non nut draws. You should be willing to play nut draws more aggressively than non nut draws. This is especially relevant when you have a low, flush draw.

Below are two hypothetical examples which illustrate this thought process.

Example One

A recreational player (22/12 over 68 hands) raises from the hijack. You call in the cutoff with T♠ T♦ and everyone else folds. The flop comes 7♥ 5♣ 2♦ and the villain continuation bets a little more than half the pot. You check his Flop C-Bet number and notice that he has c-bet two out of four times. Unfortunately, such a low sample size is inconclusive.

4

A naked hand is one that does not have any other means of improving. For example, 3♣ 2♣ on a Q♣ T♣ 7♦ board qualifies as a naked flush draw since there is no other way to improve the hand (pairing the 2 or 3 is considered irrelevant). In contrast, a hand like J♣ T♣ on a 9♦ 5♣ 4♣ board is anything but naked It holds two overcards and a backdoor straight draw in addition to its flush draw; all of which could possibly improve the hand to a winner.

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Do you likely have the best hand? Yes. The flop is dry and you can expect your opponent to have bet a wide range of hands. This includes many worse value hands such as A5, A7, 88, and 99. The flop is also dry enough for him to continuation bet as a bluff or bet some draws (such as A4, A3, or A♥ Q♥ which has overcards and backdoor flush draws).

Are you likely to get action from worse? At this point, you just don’t know.

But you do know that plenty of better hands will not fold including 22, 55, 77, and JJ – AA. What are some bad turn cards? Other than overcards, there aren’t many bad turn cards for you. Even if this player has naked overcards (like QJ or AK), he only has 25% equity versus your tens.

Taking all of these factors into account, you should just call and see a turn with position.

Example Two

A 12/10 TAG raises from UTG, a 14/11 TAG calls in late middle position, and a 24/5 loose-passive player calls on the button. You call with Q♠ J♠ from the big blind.

The flop comes K♦ Q♥ 5♦ and you check. The UTG TAG c-bets around 70%, the other TAG folds, and the loose-passive button calls.

Do you likely have the best hand? No. Not only is a 12/10’s UTG range very tight to begin with, it also includes many hands which hit this flop hard.

Secondly, villain bet strongly into three other players on a draw-heavy flop.

This is another sign of major strength.

When the loose-passive button calls as well, it is clear that he connected in some way with this flop. He could have a pair, a straight draw, or a flush draw. At this point, you don’t really have a good idea of his range.

How many outs to improve? The best possible card for you would be a non-diamond queen. A jack could give another player a better hand (KJ, AT, 9T). So there are really only two cards which improve your had that you can feel good about.

What is your fold equity like? With a TAG leading into three players and getting one call, don't count on having much fold equity.

When you add up all the variables, check-folding is the best play on this flop.

Facing a Continuation Bet 117

Example Three

A 16/12 SLAG raises from the button and you call from the big blind with A♦ T♦.

The flop comes 8♣ 7♦ 3♥. You check and the Button, who has a c-bet of 72% over a good sample size, c-bets a standard amount.

Do you likely have the best hand? Maybe. You have ace-high with a medium kicker.

How many outs to improve? Any ten, ace, or diamond improves your hand.

Although that totals 16 cards, some of those cards might also improve your opponent. You also need to consider that diamonds do not give you a made hand, they simply provide a good draw. So in reality, the true number of outs leans more towards 7 to 10 cards.

What is your fold equity like? This loose and aggressive button is likely to c-bet a fairly dry flop like this frequently. Therefore, you shouldn’t give his c-bet much respect. Your fold equity in this spot is likely to be above-average.

The combination of having legitimate cards that could improve your hand, being out of position, and possessing reasonable fold equity should make raising here a profitable play. Your raise doesn’t have to be large however. A size 2.5 to 2.75 times the button’s c-bet is more than adequate.

If he calls and you don’t improve on the turn, you should just give up. You can fire again on a diamond or a ten. If an ace hits, the best play would probably be to check-call.

Donk Betting There are times when it is best to lead into the preflop raiser. This is also known as a donk bet. Many regulars are not used to other regulars donk betting into them. So it is good to have this play in your arsenal while waiting for profitable situations to use it. I'll discuss two such situations below.

1. You have a strong hand against a player that likes to pot control. This becomes especially important in situations where the flop texture is wet.

Example: An unknown player with a 60 big blind stack limps from UTG+1, a TAG raises from MP1, and you call from the big blind with 6♥ 6♣.

The flop comes 9♣ 8♣ 6♥. The TAG has a Flop C-Bet percentage of only 40% and you do not want this flop to check through. Any five, seven, or ten on the turn could very well scare away any worse hands that would have gladly paid to see another card

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on the flop. In addition, either player could call your lead with a hand that they would rather check. Don't give them the chance.

I also think check-calling this flop is bad given that you'll be out of position for the rest of the hand. Leading looks weaker than check-raising. Plus it ensures that you will receive maximum value from overpairs that are likely to call or to raise your lead but might fold to a check-raise.

2. You have a weak hand and your opponent plays straightforward. Many multi-tabling nits or TAGs are willing to give up on small pots if they miss the flop (which most people do if they open from late position). You can take control of the hand and pick up some dead money by donk betting. It helps if you have some backdoor equity the times you get called.

Example: A 15/12 TAG raises from the cutoff and you call from the big blind with Q♥ J♥. The flop comes 9♦ 7♦ 5♥. You are likely to get credit for hitting a piece of this flop and more often than not, the Cutoff has missed completely. If called, you can pick up additional equity with any ten, king, eight, heart, jack, or queen. Betting now will also fold out plenty of better hands like 33, AT, or KJ. Below are some additional examples taken from actual hands that I played during my 2011 Challenge. Each features facing a continuation bet.

Hand One Stakes: 10NL Relevant Stack Sizes and Initial Reads: ($10.75) is playing 13/8 over 83 hands and has c-bet twice in two opportunities

MP2

Hero ($10.00) is in MP3

Action: MP2 opens to $0.30 and I call from the hijack with K♥ Q♥. The flop comes A♥ Q♦ 2♣ and MP2 bets $0.40 into $0.75. I call. The turn is the 7♥ and my opponent bets again, this time $0.70 into $1.55. I call again and watch the 8♦ roll off on the river.

This time the villain checks and I take my hand to showdown. He flips over Q♦ J♣ and I win the $2.95 pot.

Analysis: Preflop, I think calling is much better than three-betting versus this player. The flop texture is great for him to c-bet and I would expect most

Facing a Continuation Bet 119 players to bet their full range in this spot. Since I have good showdown value and lots of backdoor draws, the flop is an easy call.

I improve on the turn and call again facing a small bet. On the river, I don't expect any worse hands to call or any better hands to fold if I bet. So I just take my hand to showdown.

Hand Two

Stakes: 10NL

Relevant Stack Sizes and Initial Reads:

UTG

($9.50)

MP2 ($10.24) is playing 17/14 over 354 hands with a Flop C-Bet of 91% (11)

and a Turn C-Bet of 0% (3)

Hero ($10.10) is on the BTN

Action: UTG limps, MP2 isolates to $0.50, I call on the BTN with J♥ J♣, and everyone else folds. The flop comes T♦ 6♣ 2♥. Villain c-bets $0.65 into $1.25 and I call. The turn is the 2♠ and now my opponent checks. I bet $1.60 into $2.55 and he folds.

Analysis: I called preflop for two reasons: 1. I wanted to keep the weaker limper in the pot.

2. I wanted to play my strong hand versus the regular’s wide isolation range.

Notice that this villain’s stats are a textbook example of exploitable postflop play. He is loose preflop, bets just about every flop, and has yet to bet the turn. There is little value in raising this flop other than to fold out a potential six-out hand like KQ (which often only has 13% equity).

The turn is the ultimate blank card and I bet my hand for value.

Hand Three

Stakes: 10NL

Relevant Stack Sizes and Initial Reads:

UTG

($7.33) is playing 20/12 over 50 hands

Hero ($14.98) is in the BB

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Action: UTG raises to $0.30 preflop and I call with 7♥7♣ in the BB. I flop the nuts on a 7♠ 3♥ 2♥ board and check. Villain bets $0.40 into $0.65 and I check-raise to $1.10. He moves all-in and I call. Villain shows Q♥ Q♠ and fails to improve.

Analysis: Preflop is an easy call from the big blind versus a loose-passive’s UTG raise. I flop the nuts and face a c-bet. This is not a good spot to slowplay since a lot of turns could bring scare cards to slow down the villain’s aggression.

Since I am out of position, I want to take the lead in the hand and make sure I build a pot by the river. He makes the rest of the hand easy for me by moving all-in.

Hand Four

Stakes: 10NL

Relevant Stack Sizes and Initial Reads:

($56.37) is playing 9/8 over 326 hands and has c-bet 8 out of 10 times on the flop and 2 out of 3 times on the turn

BTN

Hero ($10.05) is in the BB

Action: Villain raises from the BTN to $0.30 and I call in the BB with A♠8♠.

The flop comes Q♠ 8♥ 2♠. With $0.65 in the pot, I check to the villain who fires a c-bet of $0.50. I check-raise him to $1.60 and he folds.

Analysis: Even though this player is very tight preflop, I should expect his button raising range to still be wide. Since I am closing out the action from the big blind with a playable hand, I call preflop.

On the flop, I raise because: I have the nut draw and could get action from weaker flush draws or straight draws.

I build a pot for the times I improve.

I am a favorite versus most value hands (like KQ or KK) that my opponent has on the flop.

If my opponent had three-bet this flop, I would have moved all-in and played for stacks for reasons one and three above.

Facing a Continuation Bet 121

Hand Five

Stakes: 10NL Relevant Stack Sizes and Initial Reads: UTG

($22.30) is new to the table

Hero ($16.30) is in MP1

BTN ($37.04) is playing 21/7 over 86 hands and has folded to 2 out of 6 c-bets

he has faced

BB

($10.20) is 14/7 over 266 hands and has folded to 3 out of 4 c-bets

Action: UTG raises to $0.30 and I call in MP1 with A♣ Q♣. The BTN and the BB follow. The flop comes Q♥ T♠ 5♥. After the BB checks, UTG bets $0.65 into $1.25. I call, the BTN calls, and the BB folds.

The 9♠ comes on the turn and UTG checks. I bet $1.20 into $3.20, the BTN calls, and UTG folds. The river brings the K♥. I check, the BTN bets $2.40 into $5.60, and I fold.

Analysis: Preflop, my suited hand plays well in position versus an unknown player with whom I am over 160 big blinds deep. Any draw I flop will be a nut draw and any trips will either be the nuts or second nuts.

On the flop, the villain fires a small bet into three opponents on a wet board.

With two players still left to act, my best option is calling. If anyone comes in for a raise I can comfortably fold.

The turn completes two straight draws but I am still ahead of plenty of hands.

Once the original raiser checks, I put out a blocker bet. When the button calls again and UTG folds, I expect to have the best hand heading to the river.

The river card completes every draw and I check-fold.

Hand Six Stakes: 10NL Relevant Stack Sizes and Initial Reads: ($10.00) is playing 12/9 over 428 hands with a 62% (13) Flop C-Bet but no sample on his Turn C-Bet

UTG+1

Hero ($10.00) is in the CO

SB

($10.96) is playing 8/3 over 42 hands

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Action: UTG+1 raises to $0.35 and I call in the CO with J♥ T♥. The SB calls and the BB folds.

The flop comes T♦ 9♣ 2♠. UTG+1 bets $0.70 into $1.15. I call and the SB folds.

The turn brings the 2♦, pairing the board. Villain bets again, this time $1.50 into a pot of $2.55. I fold.

Analysis: I call with a mid suited connector preflop in late position knowing that the remaining players are tight and have essentially no history of threebetting between them. On the flop, the regular fires a standard c-bet into two people. With top pair and backdoor straight draws, I call in position. When I don’t improve on the blank turn and he fires again, I fold.

When the villain fires again on the turn, I fold for the following reasons.

The villain is tight preflop and opened from an early position.

He fired into two opponents on the flop and continued his aggression on a blank turn. He should perceive this turn card as having minimum fold equity. Therefore when he bets it, his range is heavily weighted toward hands that have top pair beat.

The 2♦ also counterfeits three potential outs. If a jack falls on the river and the villain has QQ – AA, his two-pair still beats my two-pair. Thus, with limited perceived outs to improve, I fold.

10

T

E

N

PLAYING TURNS AND RIVERS

I

have been thinking about the important elements to postflop play and have tried to generalize them. There are a lot of factors to consider when it comes to playing later streets, all of which stem from the preflop action.

In my opinion, this is the essence of good postflop play: 1. Correctly partitioning and narrowing your opponent's range based on previous actions.

2. Making the most profitable play based on your analysis of their range.

Keep these two factors in mind as you study the rest of the chapter.

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Homer Versus Bart For the sake of simplicity, assume that a particular player (let's call him Homer) only plays hands preflop from the range shown in table 10-1.

AA

AKs AQs AJs ATs

AKo KK

A9s A8s A7s A6s A5s A4s A3s A2s

KQs KJs KTs K9s K8s K7s K6s K5s K4s K3s K2s

AQo KQo QQ

QJs QTs Q9s Q8s Q7s Q6s Q5s Q4s Q3s Q2s

AJo KJo QJo JJ

JTs

J9s

ATo KTo QTo JTo

TT

T9s T8s T7s T6s T5s T4s T3s T2s

A9o K9o Q9o J9o T9o 99

J8s

J7s

J6s

J5s

J4s

J3s

J2s

98s 97s 96s 95s 94s 93s 92s

A8o K8o Q8o J8o T8o 98o 88

87s 86s 85s 84s 83s 82s

A7o K7o Q7o J7o T7o 97o 87o 77

76s 75s 74s 73s 72s

A6o K6o Q6o J6o T6o 96o 86o 76o 66

65s 64s 63s 62s

A5o K5o Q5o J5o T5o 95o 85o 75o 65o 55

54s 53s 52s

A4o K4o Q4o J4o T4o 94o 84o 74o 64o 54o 44

43s 42s

A3o K3o Q3o J3o T3o 93o 83o 73o 63o 53o 43o 33

32s

A2o K2o Q2o J2o T2o 92o 82o 72o 62o 52o 42o 32o 22 Table 10-1. Homer's preflop range

Depending on the preflop action, Homer will make decisions which partition this range into smaller ranges.

Playing Turns and Rivers 125

Example One: Homer Calls a Raise from Middle Position In this example, Homer is on the button and faces a middle position raise from a TAG named Bart. Homer makes his first partition.

Split 1: This is the how Homer would play the hypothetical preflop range assigned to him above: Raise: AA, KK, AK, 97s, K8s, K3s, K2s Call: 22, 33, 77, 88, 99, 78s, 89s, A2s, A3s Fold: Everything else Homer ends up calling (see table 10-2) which means that his range going forward is: AA

AKs AQs AJs ATs

AKo KK

A9s A8s A7s A6s A5s A4s A3s A2s

KQs KJs KTs K9s K8s K7s K6s K5s K4s K3s K2s

AQo KQo QQ

QJs QTs Q9s Q8s Q7s Q6s Q5s Q4s Q3s Q2s

AJo KJo QJo JJ

JTs

J9s

ATo KTo QTo JTo

TT

T9s T8s T7s T6s T5s T4s T3s T2s

A9o K9o Q9o J9o T9o 99

J8s

J7s

J6s

J5s

J4s

J3s

J2s

98s 97s 96s 95s 94s 93s 92s

A8o K8o Q8o J8o T8o 98o 88

87s 86s 85s 84s 83s 82s

A7o K7o Q7o J7o T7o 97o 87o 77

76s 75s 74s 73s 72s

A6o K6o Q6o J6o T6o 96o 86o 76o 66

65s 64s 63s 62s

A5o K5o Q5o J5o T5o 95o 85o 75o 65o 55

54s 53s 52s

A4o K4o Q4o J4o T4o 94o 84o 74o 64o 54o 44

43s 42s

A3o K3o Q3o J3o T3o 93o 83o 73o 63o 53o 43o 33

32s

A2o K2o Q2o J2o T2o 92o 82o 72o 62o 52o 42o 32o 22 Table 10-2. Homer's preflop calling range

Continuing with the hand, another TAG named Marge calls from the big blind and all three players go to the flop. The flop comes Q♦ 7♠ 4♦. Marge checks and Bart, the original raiser, c-bets around half-pot. The action is back on Homer.

Split 2: Now Homer breaks up his range into: Raise: 77, A♦ 2♦, A♦ 3♦, 7♦ 8♦ Call: 99, 88, 9♦ 8♦ Fold: Everything else

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Homer calls Bart's c-bet and Marge ends up folding. By calling, Homer’s range (see table 10-3) narrows to this: AA

AKs AQs AJs ATs

AKo KK

A9s A8s A7s A6s A5s A4s A3s A2s

KQs KJs KTs K9s K8s K7s K6s K5s K4s K3s K2s

AQo KQo QQ

QJs QTs Q9s Q8s Q7s Q6s Q5s Q4s Q3s Q2s

AJo KJo QJo JJ

JTs

J9s

ATo KTo QTo JTo

TT

T9s T8s T7s T6s T5s T4s T3s T2s

A9o K9o Q9o J9o T9o 99

J8s

J7s

J6s

J5s

J4s

J3s

J2s

98s 97s 96s 95s 94s 93s 92s

A8o K8o Q8o J8o T8o 98o 88

87s 86s 85s 84s 83s 82s

A7o K7o Q7o J7o T7o 97o 87o 77

76s 75s 74s 73s 72s

A6o K6o Q6o J6o T6o 96o 86o 76o 66

65s 64s 63s 62s

A5o K5o Q5o J5o T5o 95o 85o 75o 65o 55

54s 53s 52s

A4o K4o Q4o J4o T4o 94o 84o 74o 64o 54o 44

43s 42s

A3o K3o Q3o J3o T3o 93o 83o 73o 63o 53o 43o 33

32s

A2o K2o Q2o J2o T2o 92o 82o 72o 62o 52o 42o 32o 22 Table 10-3. Homer's flop calling range

Notice that 98s only includes diamonds. This is because Homer would have folded all other combinations of 98s on the flop.

The two players see the 9♠ on the turn. The board now reads Q♦ 7♠ 4♦ 9♠.

Bart bets again, this time around 60% of the pot.

Split 3: This is how Homer would play his remaining range: Raise: 99 1 Call: 9♦ 8♦

Fold: 88 Homer raises. What should Bart do? If Bart has a good read on Homer and was able to correctly narrow his range based on preflop, flop, and turn actions, he will fold everything other than a set of queens.

Playing Turns and Rivers 127 The entire process can be graphically represented by the following flowchart (figure 10-1).

Preflop Action

Homer Folds Everything Else

Homer Calls

22, 33, 77, 88, 99, 78s, 89s, A2, A3s

Homer Raises

AA, KK, AK, 97s, K8s, K3s, K2s

Flop Action

4♦ 7♠ Q♦

Homer Folds

Homer Calls

Homer Raises

Everything Else

99, 88, 9♦8♦

77, A♦2♦, A♦3♦, 7♦8♦

Turn Action

4♦ 7♠ Q♦ 9♠

Homer Folds

Homer Calls

Homer Raises

88

9♦8♦

99

Figure 10-1. Homer's range flowchart

If the flop had a different texture or had it played out another way, Homer would react by dividing his range accordingly. The key point to take away is that the stronger Bart’s read is on Homer, the better Bart will be able to read Homer's range as it develops and make correct decisions.

So why isn't poker this straightforward in real life?

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Applying this Concept to Real Tables Anytime you are reading hands postflop, you are essentially performing a quick and dirty version of the above process. This is much harder to do at the poker table because: Preflop ranges are wider. Unlike Homer, real players will have the full 1,326 possible starting hand combinations.

Your reads are worse. Even if you have thousands of hands on another player, the best you can do is approximate how they are likely to act (i.e. partition up their ranges).

You have a limited amount of time to make decisions. You are bound to make errors.

There is basic math involved in decision making.

Your opponents are human and play inconsistently. For example, there are times when an opponent will raise a certain hand in one spot but call a very similar hand in another.

Despite all of these reasons, you should still strive to execute similar diligence.

The next example looks at a hand that demonstrates this thought process at the poker table.

Example Two: Heads Up Versus a Regular You raise J♥ J♣ from the hijack and get called by a tight regular from the small blind. The Big Blind folds and you go to the flop heads up. Before the flop comes down, you should make a quick mental map of the most likely hands that the villain would play given the previous action.

Table 10-4 includes two shades of grey. The lighter shades represent the hands which you believe are the most probable for your opponent to have in this situation. The darker shades includes hands which he could have, but that you discount for various reasons.

For example, QQ and AK are both shaded darker because you think that your opponent could have three-bet them instead. Hands 22 – 44, 78s – 9Ts, and AJs are all shaded darker because you believe that the villain could have also folded them preflop from the small blind to your hijack raise.

Playing Turns and Rivers 129 AA

AKs AQs AJs ATs

AKo KK

A9s A8s A7s A6s A5s A4s A3s A2s

KQs KJs KTs K9s K8s K7s K6s K5s K4s K3s K2s

AQo KQo QQ

QJs QTs Q9s Q8s Q7s Q6s Q5s Q4s Q3s Q2s

AJo KJo QJo JJ

JTs

J9s

ATo KTo QTo JTo

TT

T9s T8s T7s T6s T5s T4s T3s T2s

A9o K9o Q9o J9o T9o 99

J8s

J7s

J6s

J5s

J4s

J3s

J2s

98s 97s 96s 95s 94s 93s 92s

A8o K8o Q8o J8o T8o 98o 88

87s 86s 85s 84s 83s 82s

A7o K7o Q7o J7o T7o 97o 87o 77

76s 75s 74s 73s 72s

A6o K6o Q6o J6o T6o 96o 86o 76o 66

65s 64s 63s 62s

A5o K5o Q5o J5o T5o 95o 85o 75o 65o 55

54s 53s 52s

A4o K4o Q4o J4o T4o 94o 84o 74o 64o 54o 44

43s 42s

A3o K3o Q3o J3o T3o 93o 83o 73o 63o 53o 43o 33

32s

A2o K2o Q2o J2o T2o 92o 82o 72o 62o 52o 42o 32o 22 Table 10-4. Preflop calling range versus a regular heads up

The flop comes down T♣ 8♥ 3♥. As expected, villain checks. You notice that over the twenty times he has faced a c-bet, he has folded 50% of the time, raised 10% of the time, and called 40% of the time. Those numbers seem standard. Should you bet your jacks here?

Split 1: Here is a rough sketch of what you expect your opponent to do if you bet.

Fold: 22, 44-77, AQo (most), AK, AJs, KQs, (non-hearts) Call: QQ, JJ, 99, 87s, 98s, T9s, JTs (all of them non-hearts), K♥ Q♥ Raise: 33, 88, TT, QJs, A♥ K♥, A♥ Q♥, T♥ 9♥, random bluff (A♥ Qx) You include some combinations of AQo in his raising range, like those with the A♥ acting as the nut flush draw blocker. Also, since the flop is draw-heavy, QJs could be in this player's raising range also. He could try to use his perceived image to capitalize on the extra fold equity that comes with this flop texture.

So should you bet to protect your hand? To answer that, open up your favorite equity calculation software (like PokerStove or ProPokerTools) and figure out how much equity the villain’s folding range has versus your jacks. I realize that you won’t have time to do this while actually playing, but it is important to do this type of math away from the tables as part of your studying.

If your calculations are correct, villain will have around 15% equity in this spot. The important point to consider however is that he is unlikely to put any more money into the pot unless he improves. If he does improve however, he will have you crushed. This is vastly different compared to a spot where you

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have A♠ A♥ on an 8♣ 2♦ 2♠ board. If your opponent holds K♠ Q♦, he can still improve his hand but you stay significantly ahead with your aces.

This is not the case here. Betting to deny your opponent that equity is a good decision. Betting will also get called by plenty of worse hands. You won’t face a check-raise often enough to warrant checking behind out of fear. So you bet 70% of the pot and the villain calls.

Table 10-5 represents the newly narrowed hand map for your perception of his range going to the turn.

AA

AKs AQs AJs ATs

AKo KK

A9s A8s A7s A6s A5s A4s A3s A2s

KQs KJs KTs K9s K8s K7s K6s K5s K4s K3s K2s

AQo KQo QQ

QJs QTs Q9s Q8s Q7s Q6s Q5s Q4s Q3s Q2s

AJo KJo QJo JJ

JTs

J9s

ATo KTo QTo JTo

TT

T9s T8s T7s T6s T5s T4s T3s T2s

A9o K9o Q9o J9o T9o 99

J8s

J7s

J6s

J5s

J4s

J3s

J2s

98s 97s 96s 95s 94s 93s 92s

A8o K8o Q8o J8o T8o 98o 88

87s 86s 85s 84s 83s 82s

A7o K7o Q7o J7o T7o 97o 87o 77

76s 75s 74s 73s 72s

A6o K6o Q6o J6o T6o 96o 86o 76o 66

65s 64s 63s 62s

A5o K5o Q5o J5o T5o 95o 85o 75o 65o 55

54s 53s 52s

A4o K4o Q4o J4o T4o 94o 84o 74o 64o 54o 44

43s 42s

A3o K3o Q3o J3o T3o 93o 83o 73o 63o 53o 43o 33

32s

A2o K2o Q2o J2o T2o 92o 82o 72o 62o 52o 42o 32o 22 Table 10-5. Flop calling range versus a regular heads up

Scare Cards and Blank Cards Scare cards are cards that come on later streets which are likely to improve a player's range. There are scare cards for both the preflop raiser and the preflop caller(s). Blank cards are cards which are unlikely to improve either player given the action.

As you improve at assessing opponent ranges, you will be able to more accurately identify which cards should be scare cards for whom. Based on your reads, here are the scare cards and the blank cards for example two on page 128.

Scare card for you: An eight improves 87s and 98s. A nine improves T9, 98, and 99. Any heart, king, or queen improves K♥ Q♥.

Playing Turns and Rivers 131 Scare cards for the villain: Anything above a ten. Possibly hearts unless he has K♥ Q♥.

Blank cards: Everything else.

Even though you might think that a heart is a scare card for your hand, a heart shouldn’t really worry you that much. This is based on the preflop range you put your opponent on as well as the fact that he check-called the flop. You expect him to play his draws faster out of position.

The turn is the 4♦ and is a major blank. The board now reads T♥ 8♥ 3♥ 4♦.

Should you bet again?

Split 2: If you bet, you predict that the villain will do the following: Fold: 87s and 98s that failed to improve on the turn.

Call: QQ, JJ, and T9s still have top pair or better. K♥ Q♥ with the flush draw and two overcards will call again as well. Nines could go either way. The villain could call or fold them.

Raise: Nothing. A raise here would be very unexpected since you assumed most sets would check-raise the flop.

Overall, a bet here should be +EV. This player could get stubborn with second pair even though you don’t expect him to. Checking might also pique your opponent's curiosity if a blank hits on the river.

You decide to bet and villain calls. Here is his final narrowed range (table 10-6).

AA

AKs AQs AJs ATs

AKo KK

A9s A8s A7s A6s A5s A4s A3s A2s

KQs KJs KTs K9s K8s K7s K6s K5s K4s K3s K2s

AQo KQo QQ

QJs QTs Q9s Q8s Q7s Q6s Q5s Q4s Q3s Q2s

AJo KJo QJo JJ

JTs

J9s

ATo KTo QTo JTo

TT

T9s T8s T7s T6s T5s T4s T3s T2s

A9o K9o Q9o J9o T9o 99

J8s

J7s

J6s

J5s

J4s

J3s

J2s

98s 97s 96s 95s 94s 93s 92s

A8o K8o Q8o J8o T8o 98o 88

87s 86s 85s 84s 83s 82s

A7o K7o Q7o J7o T7o 97o 87o 77

76s 75s 74s 73s 72s

A6o K6o Q6o J6o T6o 96o 86o 76o 66

65s 64s 63s 62s

A5o K5o Q5o J5o T5o 95o 85o 75o 65o 55

54s 53s 52s

A4o K4o Q4o J4o T4o 94o 84o 74o 64o 54o 44

43s 42s

A3o K3o Q3o J3o T3o 93o 83o 73o 63o 53o 43o 33

32s

A2o K2o Q2o J2o T2o 92o 82o 72o 62o 52o 42o 32o 22 Table 10-6. Turn calling range

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Scare cards heading to the river: Scare card for you: Nines, tens, queens, and kings are bad for you.

Scare cards for villain: Like on the turn, a heart or anything above a ten is a scare card unless he has exactly K♥ Q♥.

Blank cards: All other cards.

The river is the 9♠. The board now reads T♣ 8♥ 3♥ 4♦ 9♠. Villain leads for around 60% pot. Should you call?

Given the ranges you put your opponent on for each street, the hands that make the most sense for him to lead are T9s and 99. These hands now have either two-pair or a set and are looking to get value. If he played queens passively for two streets, it seems unlikely for him to now lead the river for 60% pot. Checkfolding is the mostly likely move for his KQs. So the best play now is to just fold.

The Art of the Turn Although you face a preflop decision one hundred percent of the time at the poker table, an overwhelming majority of those decisions result in a fold. Taking a closer look at my TAG style reveals that I make a flop decision 10% of the time, a turn decision 5% of the time, and a river decision a miniscule 3% of the time.

Although turn and river decisions may not be made as often, they tend to be more expensive due to the nature of escalating bet sizes on later streets.

In general, if you bet the flop and get called, your opponents have some sort of hand. This will usually be a: Strong made hand. These hands have your range crushed and are being slowplayed on the flop.

Weak made hand. This includes weak top pair hands or worse. These hands are often just trying to get to showdown cheaply and to become bluff-catchers when faced with multiple streets of aggression from a good player.

Draw. These hands offer no showdown value at the moment but have the potential to improve.

The art of playing the turn lies in evaluating how likely it is that your opponent has a hand in one of those categories and in knowing your best play in that situation. In general, opponents will have weak hands or draws if they just call

Playing Turns and Rivers 133 your bet on the flop. Therefore, it is usually best to continue your aggression if you think that you had the best hand on the flop. Likewise, you are better off giving up if you didn't hit and don't have much hope of improving.

If you think that your opponent had a weak made hand on the flop and the turn improves your equity or provides a scare card, you should double barrel. If you think your opponent had a draw on the flop and the turn doesn’t improve your hand however, double barrelling without a good read is often just spew since people don't like folding draws before the river.

The Baluga Theorem Most of the time, turn and river raises in single raised pots tend to represent legitimate strength. In fact, Andrew “BalugaWhale” Seidman wrote a theory post on TwoPlusTwo in 2006 dedicated to facing a turn raise. In essence he said that one-pair hands are often beaten facing a turn raise. The concept caught on and the situation became known as the Baluga Theorem.

Example of the Baluga Theorem You raise A♦ K♠ from UTG and get called by a TAG on the button and a LAG in the small blind. The flop comes K♠ 8♥ 5♦. The LAG checks and you c-bet a standard amount. The TAG on the button folds and the LAG calls. The turn is the J♣. The LAG checks, you bet again, and this time you get raised. According to the Baluga Theorem, your AK is currently behind your opponent's hand.

Here are a few points to consider about the Baluga Theorem.

It is only applicable in single raised pots. In three-bet pots, turn raises could simply mean that your opponent feels sufficiently pot-committed.

Turn check-raises are stronger than just turn raises. Some players will raise turns as a means of buying themselves a showdown or as a semi-bluff.

You get raised or check-raised less often than you think.

Since many players are afraid of getting check-raised on the turn, they tend to play turns passively for the sake of pot control. In general you are better off betting and setting your own price for showdown instead of ceding control to your opponent.

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If you are in doubt, bet-folding the turn or betting the turn and check-folding the river is a better play than check-calling the turn and having to check-guess the river.

Checking for Pot Control There are situations when checking the turn for pot control is the best play. Most of the time you should do it when you are in position and unsure of your equity.

Example One: Way Ahead or Way Behind You raise Q♠ Q♦ from UTG and get called by a loose-passive player in the big blind. The flop comes 2♠ 7♦ A♣. Villain checks, you bet, and he calls. The turn is the 9♥. Villain checks again.

This is a good spot to check back for pot control. If your opponent has an ace, you only have two outs to improve and he is unlikely to fold. If the villain has a pair sevens or 88 – JJ, he has very few outs to improve and is happy to go to showdown. This is known as a way ahead or way behind situation.

Example Two: Realizing Backdoor Equity With Limited Fold Equity You raise 6♠ 5♠ from the cutoff and get called by a TAG in the big blind. The flop comes J♦ 9♠ 5♥. The TAG checks, you c-bet, and the TAG calls. The turn is the 8♠ and the big blind checks again. After thinking about your opponent's range, you decide that you have limited fold equity on the turn and don’t want to get blown off your equity by a check-raise. This is a good spot to check back.

Example Three: Realizing a Redraw You raise 5♠ 5♥ from the hijack and get called by a loose-passive player on the button. The flop comes 2♠ 3♣ 5♣. You bet and get called. The turn is the 4♣.

While there are a lot of hands villain could have in this spot that are now ahead of you, you still have 25% equity if he has a straight or a non-nut flush. Checking with the intention to check-call is the best play in this situation. If you fill up on the river, you should lead with your full house.

Playing Turns and Rivers 135

Betting for Pot Control The advantage of betting the turn is that you control the price if your opponent wishes to continue. Bets designed to force an inexpensive showdown are called blocker bets.

Example One: Blocker Bet You raise J♠ J♥ from UTG and get called by a loose-passive player on the button.

The flop comes Q♦ 7♥ 5♥. You c-bet and get called. The turn is the 2♥, a relative blank. This would be a good spot to blocker bet. Although you shouldn't expect a queen to fold, there are plenty of worse hands that could decide to continue.

Betting accomplishes a few things.

You can comfortably bet-fold the turn if the villain puts in a big raise.

If you are called and the river is a blank, you can bet again for thin value or check to induce a missed draw to bluff.

You get value from weaker hands and draws that might check back the turn.

Example Two: Reverse Blocker Bet A reverse blocker bet is a bet on the turn, in position, designed to get you to the river so you can check back. You raise T♠ 9♠ from the cutoff and get called by a loose-passive player in the big blind. The flop comes T♦ 8♦ 5♠ and villain check-calls your flop c-bet. The turn is the K♥ and he checks a second time.

There are plenty of weaker hands that will continue here if you bet. That said, if you bet and get called, most of your opponent's hands will fall into one of these categories: Draws. If your opponent was on a draw and it missed on the river, you are not going to get any more value by betting.

Better hands. You can value own yourself by betting against better hands.

Weaker made hands. There just won’t be many weak made hands that can take three streets of aggression from you unless the player is a complete calling station.

Therefore, your best play is to bet the turn and then check back just about any river that doesn’t improve your hand.

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The Art of the River By the time you reach the river, you should have a pretty good idea of where you stand in the hand.

If you think you have the best hand, design a bet size that will extract value either by being called by a worse hand or by inducing a bluff raise.

Checking to call when all draws missed to induce a bluff works well against weaker players.

If you don’t think you have the best hand, but you think your opponent is very weak (especially if they likely missed a draw), you can choose to bluff. Otherwise just give up. By default, a triple barrel bluff is spew.

If you are clueless as to whether or not you have the best hand and you consistently find yourself guessing, you need to work on hand reading on earlier streets.

Playing the river is definitely a skill that is acquired from lots and lots of practice. There are so many river situations that I simply cannot cover all of them.

Compared to the turn however, the river should provide you with a better sense of what to do since all of the cards have been revealed.

Bluff-Catching Sometimes, even if you have a good hand, there is more value in bluff-catching.

For example, you raise preflop from UTG+1 with K♠ K♦ and get called by a weak player in the cutoff. The flop comes 9♠ 8♠ 6♣. You bet and get called. The turn is the 3♣. You bet a second time and get called again. The river is the 2♦. This is a great spot to check because your opponent will often have some sort of busted draw (7x, Tx, spades) that he might try to bluff now that he missed.

Given the same hand and action with a board of Q♠ J♠ 6♣ 5♦ 3♣, you should put in a medium sized value bet since you are much more likely to get called by a jack or a queen.

I'll finish the chapter by going over some actual hands that I played during the beginning of my 2011 Challenge.

Playing Turns and Rivers 137

Example One

Stakes: 10NL Relevant Stack Sizes and Initial Reads: UTG

($10.90) is playing 64/0 over 14 hands

Hero ($11.40) is in MP2

CO

($10.00) is playing 12/8 over 588 hands

Action: UTG limps, I isolate to $0.40 with A♦ K♠ from MP2, the CO calls, and UTG calls.

The flop comes A♥ T♠ 9♣. UTG checks, I c-bet $0.80 into $1.35, the CO folds, and UTG calls. The turn is the 2♦. UTG checks, I bet $1.50 into $2.95, and UTG calls again.

The river is the 9♥. UTG checks for a third time, I bet $3.00 into $5.95, and UTG calls with A♣ 8♥. I scoop the $11.95 pot.

Analysis: This hand is pretty straightforward. I put my opponent on a pair or a draw on the flop and tried my best to extract value. When the river pairs the board, I bet a third time in an attempt to get additional value from my kicker.

I dislike my bet sizing in this hand. A better amount on the flop would be closer to $1.10. The sizings on the turn and on the river should be larger as well.

Example Two

Stakes: 10NL

Relevant Stack Sizes and Initial Reads:

Hero ($10.65) is UTG+1

MP3

($27.39) is playing 31/13 over 16 hands.

Action: I raise Q♠ Q♥ from UTG+1 to $0.30. MP3 calls and everyone else folds.

The flop comes 4♠ 3♥ 3♦. I bet $0.50 into $0.75 and villain calls. The turn is the T♠. I bet $1.10 into $1.75 and my opponent calls again.

1 The river is the 8♠. I bet $1.80 into $3.95 and I get raised to $5.99. I fold.

1 Analysis: Preflop and flop are standard. On the turn, this player could have

any two cards. Since I have limited reads, it is difficult to put him on any sort of range, so I bet again, and get called. I am still having difficulty putting my

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opponent on a range heading into the river. I imagine he could have a one-pair hand like 66, 88, A4 or some sort of weak draw like A2 or A5.

I expect to get called with a wide range on the river so I make a small value bet.

When I get raised, I suspect a slowplayed three, a full house, or a backdoor flush draw that got there. I don’t expect this type of player to turn a made hand like 66 into a bluff . I also expect him to just fold a busted draw to three streets of aggression on the river. From my experience, a raise in this spot is almost always a monster.

Example Three

Stakes: 25NL Relevant Stack Sizes and Initial Reads:

Hero ($25.05) is UTG

SB

($33.52) is playing 42/33 over 38 hands

Action: I raise A♠ A♥ to $0.85 from UTG. The SB is the lone caller.

The flop comes Q♦ J♥ 3♣. Villain checks, I bet $1.25 into $1.95, and villain calls. The turn is the K♠. Villain checks again, I bet $2.25 into $4.45 and get check-raised to $6.25. I fold and my opponent takes down the pot.

Analysis: I am thrilled to have aces in position versus this sort of player.

Looking back however, I prefer a larger bet on the flop to extract value from the wide range of hands that will often continue on this type of board. Against a player this loose, $1.70 would have been better.

On the flop, I expect my opponent to peel with any underpair to the jack (by possibly putting me on AK), any jack, any queen, any straight draw, and any set. The range that check-calls me here is very wide.

The king on the turn improves a lot of his holdings. Both T9 and AT get there while KQ and KJ improves to two-pair. I bet again and get raised. If he has a one-pair type hand with some sort of draw (TJ, QT, AJ), I do not expect him to check-raise the turn. Instead, I expect him to call once more and to try to improve or get to showdown. Other than maybe an overplayed AK or KT, it is difficult at this point to put him on a hand that I have beat.

The other reason why I folded is because the king should hit my range harder than my opponent's. I expect this player to understand that I could easily be double barreling AK in this spot. So I am taken aback when I get check-raised.

Playing Turns and Rivers 139 Whenever a player becomes aggressive on a card that is more likely to improve you than them, beware. This is a very strong line so proceed cautiously.

Although I hate folding aces to a 42/33 player, I understand that even maniacs occasionally make strong hands postflop. It is important not to allow preflop stats to dictate your postflop play.

Example Four

Stakes: 10NL Relevant Stack Sizes and Initial Reads: UTG

($8.56) is playing 45/27 over 12 hands

MP1

($10.00) is playing 14/7 over 74 hands

Hero ($10.00) is in the CO

BB

($5.48) is playing 32/15 over 86 hands

Action: UTG raises to $0.30, MP1 calls, I call in the CO with T♦ 9♦, and the BB completes the action. We go to the flop four-handed which comes J♦ 8♣ 3♣.

The BB checks, UTG bets $0.70 into $1.25, MP1 folds, I call, and the BB folds. The turn is the K♣. UTG bets $1.50 into $2.65 and I fold.

Analysis: I speculate preflop because I have a hand that should be easy to play postflop in position versus players who are likely to have major postflop leaks.

I call the flop with my open-ended straight draw and backdoor flush draw.

The turn brings a possible flush and villain fires again. This counterfeits two of my outs (7♣ and Q♣) and will make it difficult for me to get paid if I hit. If my opponent has a flush, I am drawing dead. If he doesn’t have a flush, I will hit my straight only around 14% of the time. Given such low equity, I fold.

Raising the turn versus this villain in an attempt to represent a flush seems bad. This is especially true since he bet the flop into three people and did not slow down on the turn.

Example Five

Stakes: 25NL

Relevant Stack Sizes and Initial Reads:

SB

($30.16) is playing 13/8 over 132 hands with few postflop stats

Hero ($30.28) is in the BB

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Action: Villain raises from the SB and I call from the BB with A♦ T♠. The flop comes T♦ 9♣ 4♥. Villain bets $1.00 into $1.50 and I call. The turn is the A♠.

Villain continues his aggression and bets $1.75 into $3.50. Once again, I call.

The river is the 3♠ and my opponent completes his triple barrel by betting $2.00 into $7.00. I raise to $9.00 and he calls with Q♠ Q♦.

Analysis: Blind versus blind and 120 big blinds deep, I like calling in position with ATo. This hand plays well versus my opponent's opening range but performs poorly versus his range continuing against three-bets. On the flop, I hit top pair with top kicker and just call his c-bet. I don’t know what he could have, but I see limited value in raising the flop.

I am happy with my flat call on the turn when my opponent fires a second time. This is a card I expect him to bet often. If I had raised the turn, I would be representing an absolute monster (two-pair or set). Just like in example three (page 138), if I were to raise the turn on a card that should hit my opponent's range harder than mine, he should be able to fold a top pair with top kicker type hand. The board is not scary so I am not afraid of getting drawn out on.

On the river, he puts out a small blocker bet and I now put in a substantial raise. I imagine that his though process on the river to be something like: “Well, all the draws missed and he wouldn’t turn a made hand into a bluff if he had just one-pair. Also, I bet small on the river and he probably reads that as weak. He is probably trying to push me off the hand. I call.”

By slowplaying the turn, I tricked this player into leveling himself on the river and extracted maximum value.

Example Six

Stakes: 25NL

Relevant Stack Sizes and Initial Reads:

($24.90) is playing 17/15 with a 67% Flop C-Bet over a sample size of 48 and a Turn C-Bet of 64% over 11 opportunities

SB

Hero ($30.29) is in the BB

Action: Villain raises to $0.75 and I call from the BB with A♠ J♦.

The flop comes Q♣ T♦ 7♦. Villain c-bets $1.00 into $1.50 and I call. The turn is the 8♦. Villain bets $2.75 into $3.50 and I raise to $7.75. Villain folds and I take down the pot.

Playing Turns and Rivers 141 Analysis: I call preflop for the same reasons I did in example five. On the flop, I could raise. However, I prefer floating with both position and equity.

The key to this hand is the loose, aggressive play of my opponent. He has a high VPIP and bets flops and turns very frequently. This means that most of the time this player does not have a hand and is just trying to push people out of pots.

I also know that overall, his stats reflect those of a competent regular. This means that he should know how strong a turn raise is on this board. I legitimately can represent a straight, a set, or a flush, as well as an assortment of two-pair combinations which slowplayed the flop (T8, 87, QT). Even if my opponent calls, I could still make the best hand on the river depending on his cards.

The bottom line is that most of the time, he simply wonâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;t have a hand in this spot. Meanwhile, I credibly represent a very strong one. He needs to be very strong to continue, especially being out of position, and facing the possibility of more aggression on the river.

E

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FUNDAMENTAL FIVE:

PLAY YOUR A-GAME

“80% of winning regulars at MSNL 1 have a solid postflop game in a vacuum,

but only 5% play solid at the actual tables.”

1

I

Ben “BoyWonder” Eliass

f you haven’t had a chance to read BoyWonder’s epic Bad Beats and Variance posts on TwoPlusTwo, check them out. He crushed 3/6 and 5/10 over large samples and maintains that 80% of his success is due to strong mental and emotional states.

I cannot overstate the importance of developing your A-game and playing it consistently. The relative smoothness of my graph is a reflection of all the work I have put in developing and in maintaining my mental game. Anytime I go through a big downswing, tilt is inevitably involved.

Over time, I have learned to tilt less and less. This is mostly due to two books I have read: Elements of Poker by Tommy Angelo and The Mental Game of Poker

by Jared Tendler. Since both of these authors are experts on the mental game of poker, with their permission, large sections of this chapter are taken directly from their books and are referenced accordingly.

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The topics I have carefully chosen include: Tilt: Why do you do it and how can you stop it?

Losing: How do you deal with it in the short-term and in the long-term?

Moving Up: Why is it hard?

Goals: What are good ones to have?

Entitlement: Why do most players believe they are above average?

I also included snippets from my personal correspondence with both authors about these topics and anything else they deem important. The purpose of this book (Building a Bankroll) is to provide you with a primer for being a successful poker player. If you want to go above and beyond the basics, I highly encourage you to pick up both Jared and Tommy's books for a deeper understanding of this topic.

I first read of Tommy from a Phil Galfond post on TwoPlusTwo. Galfond wrote: I decided at one point that it made so much sense to get a coach. I realized that I might be playing poker for a long time, so a slight boost in hourly rate would end up being a ton of money. I made a post in HSNL (I think) saying I was looking for a coach. El Diablo basically said ‘Tommy /end thread.’ A couple people agreed and I went with him. The experience was overall very, very good but not at all what I expected or thought I wanted. It sounds like a line from a movie, but I like to say that Tommy didn’t teach me the things I wanted to learn, but he taught me the things I needed to learn.

I became intrigued and read Tommy’s book, Elements of Poker. I also listened to his Eightfold Path to Poker Enlightenment. Both have helped me understand the nature of tilt and how to begin addressing it.

Tommy taught me to always focus on whether I am playing my A-game or not. I began ending sessions that were not going well and feeling good about quitting.

I started thinking about quitting during a bad session as a success instead of a failure. My overall game benefitted and my long-term graph started to smooth out.

To me, Tommy is the Buddhist guru in the field of the mental game while Jared is the professor. Some of Tommy’s best advice is more indirect than Jared’s best advice.

I first heard of Jared when Dusty “Leatherass” Schmidt discussed hiring him to help with his mental issues. Soon, Jared made a few videos for StoxPoker (now available in the CardRunners archives) called Playing your A-game.

Fundamental Five: Play Your A-Game 145 Given his background was in helping golfers with their game, his approach was rooted in sport psychology and peak performance science. With so many parallels between golf and poker, his transition to helping poker players was seamless.

Jared’s book, The Mental Game of Poker, is a comprehensive analysis of many of the major issues that prevent poker players from becoming great. Some of the major topics include tilt, fear, motivation, and confidence. Jared also provides the tools for how to approach each of these issues.

For more information on Tommy Anglo and The Elements of Poker, visit his website: TommyAngelo.com.

For more information on Jared Tendler and The Mental Game of Poker, visit his website: MentalGameOfPoker.com.

Any discussion about the mental game of poker has to begin by discussing what it means to play your A-game, so I'll start there.

A-Game Before you can understand how to play your A-game, you need to define what the A-game is and to contrast that with your non A-game. Here is how both authors define it:

Tommy Your A-game is when you play your best and feel your best at the same time. You can move in and out of your A-game many times in a session. The idea is not to.

Your B-game is everything between your A-game and your C-game. It’s not your best and it’s not your worst. B-game is bad for two reasons. It scores lower than your A-game. And it lives right next to your C-game.

Your C-game is when you play poorly according to you. You might play bad and know you are playing bad. You might play bad and wait until tomorrow to tell yourself that you did actually play bad. Or you might play bad, and even tell yourself that you played bad, either during a session or after, but you lie to yourself about just how bad you played. In any case, if you know you played bad, that’s your C-game. (EoP, Elements # 1-3)

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Jared Think for a moment about the quality of your poker decisions when playing your absolute best and when playing at your worst. In other words, how good does it get when you’re playing great, and how bad does it get when you’re playing poorly?

To illustrate a point, let’s say you rated the quality of every decision you made at the poker table (your best, worst, and everything in between) over the last 6 to 12 months on a scale of 1 (worst) to 100 (best) and plotted them on a graph.

What you’d see on that graph is a bell curve (figure 11-1).

Frequency

Solid B-game

Terrible C-game -3

-2

Your Best A-game -1

0

+1

+2

+3

Figure 11-1. Bell curve performance chart

This bell curve shows the natural range that exists in your game and the game of every poker player on the planet—even shortstackers (although theirs is the narrowest). As long as you’re playing poker, you’ll always have aspects of your game that represent the peak of your ability, and the flip side, your worst.

Always. Perfect poker isn’t possible over a large number of hands. There are times you play perfectly and other times that you don’t." (MGoP, p. 20-21) One key concept to understand about the A-game (and the mental game in general) is that it’s a moving target. When you eliminate your C-game, the depth and breadth of your A-game has the opportunity to grow stronger. Training yourself to play an increasing A-game consistently is something Jared mentioned that he didn’t have room for in his book, but plans to address in the future. In our discussions, he partially elaborated on what this meant.

Playing your A-game all the time is nearly impossible because you’re trying to play an increasing or improving A-game all the time. Trying to consistently hit this moving target requires that you understand all the marginal mistakes which pull you out of your A-game. Accurately predicting these marginal mistakes, over a large sample, can only happen with real psychic powers. Instead, for us mortals, these mistakes are identified after making them. That means, you weren’t playing that higher A-game, however, once this mistake is fixed you can.

Fundamental Five: Play Your A-Game 147 Thus, the best approach to consistently develop a stronger A-game is first to consistently identify and correct the weakest parts of your game. Then, in the process of doing this, you’ll also find new elements to address that will push your A-game higher (to the right on the bell curve from the previous page).

Ultimately, to consistently play in your A-game you have to improve both sides of your game. By consistently improving your worst and improving your best, the whole bell curve steadily moves to the right.

Tilt What causes it?

Jared The definition of tilt as defined by conventional poker wisdom is too broad.

Sometimes tilt just means playing badly; but it also can mean playing badly because of winning, or playing too loose, conservatively, or drunk. Tilt is hard to eliminate because the definition is so broad, it basically includes everything except playing great poker. (MGoP, p. 71)

Tommy Tilt has many causes and kinds, but it has only one effect. It makes us play bad.

It makes us do things we wouldn’t do if we were at our very best. And that’s how I want to define it, exactly like that. Tilt is any deviation from your A-game and your A-mindset, however slight or fleeting.

There are two reasons to define tilt in this way. One is standardization. All A-games are identical. Anyone who is playing his A-game is making the best decisions he knows how, and his mind is as right as it ever is. That’s what Agame is. It’s our best. And we all have it. So by defining tilt from the top down, we can draw a line for any player that cleanly divides his tilt from his non-tilt.

The other reason is that we aren’t just playing with words here. We are using them as shovels to dig for gold. And by using the word tilt to focus on our best, instead of our worst, we hit a lode: Tilt is non A-game. Tilt is anything less than your utmost. Tilt is suboptimalness. Defining tilt in this way, everyone tilts. It’s just a matter of how often, how long, and how bad.

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And so we arrive at the three dimensions of tilt: frequency, duration, and depth.

How often do you deviate from your A-game? How long does it last? And how far below your A-game do you go? Revisit those questions.

Tilt is all about you. If you think you should have taken the day off, or if you think you should have played at different stakes, or if you think you made a bad raise, then you tilted. Only you know when you knew better. (EoP, Element # 22)

Tommy A big day in my career was the day I realized that tomorrow I would still be a tilter. That there would be no quick fix. That any headway I made would be gradual. I realized that if I could somehow put progressively longer periods of time between my tiltings, and if I could somehow have them be progressively not quite as bad as the last time, then I’d have a chance to get some wind under my wings, and when I did, I’d soar indefinitely. Less often, less severe. Less often, less severe. That’s what I kept telling myself. (EoP, Element # 22)

Jared The following strategy applies to all types of tilt. Within each section are specific strategies to help you break down each specific type of tilt even more.

Recognition: It’s not enough to just be familiar with your pattern of tilt when you’re away from the table. You have to be able to clearly recognize the signs that you’re on tilt or heading that way in the actual moment; otherwise, you can’t gain control of it. For some players, these signs are too small and weak to stop them from tilting. Study your tilt profile as you would a poker concept, and build the skill of recognition. Only when you can recognize the signs that you’re tilting while playing, can you control it.

Preparation: Before each time you play poker, review your tilt profile, injecting logic statement(s), strategic reminders, and any other parts of your strategy so they’re in the front of your mind. That way, you’ll be more likely to spot the early signs of tilt, and thus more likely to take action before anger reaches your emotional threshold and begins to shut down your ability to think.

Performance: Make controlling tilt a priority. Keep an eye out for the signs of tilt and inject logic when you notice them. Also, mark or make a note of hands where frustration or anger shows up. That way you can easily gather more details about tilt after the session.

Fundamental Five: Play Your A-Game 149 Evaluation: What you do after a session or tournament depends on the severity of your tilt.

On a day when tilt is mild, focus your evaluation on the improvements you made with tilt. Pay attention to spots that previously would have tilted you, where instead you were able to remain in control. Analyze what you did to successfully manage tilt, and take note of any new signs. Review your mental hand history to reinforce the correction.

On days when tilt is significant, but not horrible, take notes soon after you’re done playing. While the details of your tilt are still fresh in your mind, add any new details to your tilt profile about what pissed you off, the mistakes you made, or the signs that you were on tilt.

Don’t assume the details are always the same as the other times you tilted; look for differences. At a minimum, if the details are the same, paying more attention to them increases the skill of recognition. Basically, you’re writing step 1 of the mental hand history, and that alone can reduce anger. If you’re objective enough after finishing step 1, you’ll speed up the process of resolution by going through the remaining four steps.

When tilt is really bad, even though it may be the last thing that you want to do, taking notes can help you deal with tilt better in the future. Spew out what’s in your head by productively venting. Yes, venting is a great thing, but players often do it solely to other players who don’t want to hear it. Instead, by writing (or venting to a friend first and then writing), you get the critical details about the cause of your tilt out of your head to a place where you can see them.

Often players ignore these gold nuggets of insight because they don’t even realize how valuable they are for solving tilt. By capturing them, you have the critical data to help you decode the cause of your tilt.

Productive venting also allows your brain to relax, and players who do it regularly say that it helps them feel normal faster. Complete the remaining four steps of the mental hand history within the next few days. (MGoP, p. 80-81)

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Losing How can you deal with it in the short-term and long term?

Tommy What does it mean to be winning, or losing, or breaking even? The answer is, it’s only a matter of time.

Let’s say Joe gets extremely stuck, and then for the next few hours he wins steadily. He’s almost even for the night. Let’s stop right here and take a poll. If we ask Joe’s opponents if Joe is winning, they say yes, because during the time frame in their minds, he has won. If we ask Joe if he is winning, he says no, I’m still stuck. That’s because the time span in his mind is the entire session. Or maybe Joe lost yesterday, and even though he’s ahead today, he is still counting yesterday as part of today’s session for whatever reason. I’ve done that kind of thing many times.

Let’s say we ask Joe if he is winning for the week, and then we ask him if he is winning for the month, and the year, and the lifetime. No matter what combinations of “yes” and “no” he answers to those four questions, his answers will be plausible. He could answer “yes, yes, yes, no,” or “no, no, no, yes,” or any other combo. What this means is that the answer to “Are you winning, losing, or breaking even?” is always “Since when?” (EoP, Element # 26) The Professional does not run good or run bad. He does not pleasure himself or torture himself with arbitrary time frames and accounting. He just plays.

(EoP, Element # 45)

There have been times when I wondered how I could ever lose. Days, weeks, even months sometimes, when all I did was win, win, win. Even when I lost I won, because I’d hardly lose anything, and I knew I had kept damage to the minimum possible. When I lost while I was winning, I didn’t lose pride, momentum, or courage.

There have been times when I wondered how I had ever won. Days, weeks, even months sometimes, when all I did was lose, lose, lose. I’ve had runs of bad luck that were so long and so brutal that I was absolutely convinced that no one else on earth had ever been so unlucky. But realistically I knew that could not be so, or even if it was, I could not know it to be so. Noise, so much noise used to bounce around in my head, all the time.

All of my good streaks and all of my bad streaks of every length and depth have had one thing in common. They did not exist in your mind. They only existed

Fundamental Five: Play Your A-Game 151 in my mind. And this is true for everyone’s winning and losing streaks. None of them actually exist. They are all mental fabrication, like past and future.

Everything that ever happens happens in the present tense.

But how can you have a “streak” in the present tense? You can’t. And therefore, if you are in the present tense, which, in fact, at this time, you are, then at this moment there is no streak in your life. There is no inherent existence to streaks.

The streak is there when you think about it, and when you stop thinking about it, it goes away. It blossoms and withers, all in your mind. And when your mind invents a streak, you believe it exists, because you believe what your mind tells you. But the truth is there is only the hand you are playing.(EoP, Element # 48)

Jared Losing is a reality in any competitive environment. This is especially true in poker where variance is built into the fabric of the game. Nowhere other than poker does the better player—even the best in the world—lose so often because of variance.

How you lose a hand matters, but it matters less than the simple reality that you lost. Lose one hand and your frustration spikes like a mild tremor on the Richter scale. Then as losses pile up, frustration steadily builds into tilt—unless you lose in a particularly vicious way and then a full-blown tiltquake happens instantly.

Most everyone reading this section knows that variance is part of the game.

You’d like to be friends with it, but deep down you hate it. Logically you know that variance is part of what makes poker so profitable, but since that logic isn’t enough to stop this kind of tilt, there must be more pieces to this puzzle.

When logic isn’t enough, there usually are some other nuggets of information that aren’t being accounted for and require a little digging to discover. The important first question to ask: Why do you hate losing?

To find out why losing is such a problem, it’s often easier to first look at what you gain from winning besides money. Every time you play poker, there is more on the line than just money—it’s worth taking some time to define what’s on the line for you. Here are some examples: Being better than your opponent(s).

Ability to pay the bills.

Achievement and accomplishment of poker goals.

Respect from people who think you’re wrong for even playing poker.

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Confidence in your game.

Ability to move up in stakes Others’ opinions of your game.

The time, energy, and work you put into the game.

The better chance of retiring early.

There is more than just money on the line when you play; you’re competing for what’s on this list, and more. It’s as if each one is bet along with the actual money on the table. When you lose, it’s not just money that’s gone—you’ve also lost confidence, respect from others, progress towards your goals, or anything else on your list. You hate losing because you’re competing for so much more than you realize.

Losing also feels worse when you assume more losses will happen in the future, and it feels even worse when you can’t imagine ever winning again. This prediction of the future fans the downward spiral of tilt. When you believe more losses are to come in the future, you have more to be pissed off about in the present.

Solving this type of tilt begins with a better definition of the real problem. Being competitive is not the problem. Being frustrated at losing is not the problem.

You have goals, there’s a lot on the line, and being frustrated when it doesn’t go your way means you care about what you’re investing into the game.

Plus, frustration at low levels can be fuel to perform and can motivate you to work harder away from the table. Successful athletes in major sports channel their frustration in this way all the time, but that can only happen when the excess layers that turn it into anger, hate, or rage, are removed.

Together with reviewing the other sections in this chapter, consider the following to help you define the cause and the solution of your hatred of losing: 1. Define winning. Since winning is about more than just money, take a closer look at the other things that are in play, and define what winning means for each one. This is especially important for things that are harder to calculate than money, such as respect, effort, and achievement For example: How are you going to know when you can actually move up in stakes? Winning means you have a 60 buy-in bankroll. When will others respect you for playing poker? Winning means you’ve supported yourself for five years and if they don’t respect you then, it’s their problem. How do you know if you’re better than your opponents? Winning means having a better win-rate or head-to-head record over a large sample.

Fundamental Five: Play Your A-Game 153 Write out the definitions of what winning means for everything that’s on the line for you when you play. Then reread these to remind yourself of them before you play. The tendency is to automatically assume that when you lose, you’re also losing along all of these lines too; but that may not be true. You may actually be winning and not even realize it.

2. Drop the assumption that losing will continue. The assumption that you will lose is a mental flaw that means you believe your predictions for the future will always be 100% accurate. They won’t be. To counteract this, do the following at a time when you’re relaxed or at least not pissed off: Look at the high and low points of your results at different points in your career, such as six months ago, two years ago, and even farther back. Doing this helps you gain perspective. When losing in the past, you assumed losing would continue, but it didn’t. Remind yourself of this fact regularly and you’ll take away a layer of frustration that otherwise would accumulate. (MGoP 108-111)

Moving Up Why do a lot of players struggle with moving up in stakes?

Jared Breaking through to a new limit is easier when avoiding a common resultsoriented view of moving up. Players with a fear of moving up rarely say that their goal is to establish themselves at the next limit. Instead, they just want to get to that limit and view the process as “do-or-die.” They want the end result, but since a crushing defeat is a possible outcome, there’s a ton of pressure riding on every decision.

To take some of the pressure off, they’ll only play when the games are most profitable. A good idea, but one that feeds into the belief that moving up is all about bankroll rather than the skill needed to be successful over the long-term at that limit.

The fear of moving up can often be eliminated by using a strategy that focuses more on developing skill. Rather than taking shots and hoping that you win, look at the first few times you play higher as a reconnaissance mission to gather intelligence on: 1. The strengths and weaknesses of the players.

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2. The weaknesses in your game that are not exposed at your current limit— both in your poker and mental game.

After gathering this information, you can work on the weaknesses you find at your current limit without pressure or severe consequences. Then, move back and forth between limits as a way to test or work on your game. The goal is that each time you bounce back up to the higher limit, your game will be stronger.

Eventually, it’ll be strong enough for you to stay, and then you can begin working on establishing yourself as a solid regular.

Since the fear of moving up in stakes is also closely associated with the fear of failure, review that section. Lastly, it’s a good idea to decide how much of your bankroll to invest in this strategy, so you limit losses while gathering data.

(MGoP, 176 – 177)

Tommy Think of moving up as a skill set unto itself. Think about the challenges that will be common to all of your move-ups, and prepare. Here are two: You might not survive forever at the higher level. You might need to employ one of the vital skills for moving up, which is moving down.

You can rely on fear appearing, and then evaporating. It’s the good kind of fear, the smart kind, the rational kind. It’s the same kind of fear that keeps us cautious in the world and therefore safe. It’s the fear of the unknown.

You’ll start out afraid because you won’t know the players, yet, and you won’t know how they bet, yet, and you won’t know how you are going to react to it all, yet. Gradually, as unknowns become known, the associated fears will melt away.

The two main reasons that high stakes games are tougher than low stakes games are that at high stakes, the players adapt faster, and when they tilt, they recover faster. To be better than the rest as a high stakes player, you need to adapt faster and recover faster than they do.

Financial sting causes tilt. When a player who earns $3,000,000 per year loses 1/100th of his annual income in one night—which would be $30,000—he feels it, but the sting that he feels, meaning the effect of the loss on his lifestyle choices and financial security, is far less than that of a player who earns $30,000 per year and loses $300 in a night. There is less tilting at high stakes than at low stakes because high stakes players have more to lose.

(EoP, Element # 42)

Fundamental Five: Play Your A-Game 155

Goals What are good goals to have?

Tommy I like to differentiate between goals and targets. I think that goals can be bad by their very nature. An obsession with a goal is an obsession with a future that doesn’t exist. For example, if someone says “I’m going to make $5,000 this month” but they only make $4,000, they are setting themselves up for failure.

On the other hand, if they make the $5,000, they are setting themselves up for elation. Both of those are just noise that distracts you from being in the moment.

So I like the word target—it’s something you aim for. If you are throwing rocks at a tree, sometimes you hit it, sometimes you don’t, but you are not really attached to the result. If you miss, you just pick up another rock and go again.

This way you are always in the moment—you are always in the act of moving forward. You are always moving in a direction—say—more tiltlessness, playing more hours, or whatever. The obsession with specific numbers can be pretty bad though.

Some people need the extra whipping though, or they won’t get nearly enough done. Striking that balance can be difficult.

Jared Goals are essential to motivation because they define its direction. This topic often covers entire chapters in other books; but to keep things simple, here are descriptions of the most common goal problems listed earlier in this chapter: Results-oriented goals only. When results are poor and they are the only way you define your skill or progress in the game, losing motivation makes sense.

Since you’re guaranteed to go through periods of poor results, it’s important to learn how to maintain motivation throughout these periods. To do that, add process-oriented goals such as improving tilt control, reducing the number of mistakes, improving decision making, or increasing quality hours played. Then, when results are poor, if you’re also making progress in other areas, you’ll remain motivated. You’re not eliminating results goals. Money, winning, SuperNova Elite, and other results goals matter. You’re diversifying your goals in poker, just like you diversify an investment portfolio. Adding process-oriented goals is especially important in poker because you have control of your ability to achieve these goals in the short run.

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High expectations. Often players have expectations that are so high, they’re nearly impossible to achieve. For example, it’s common for players to expect to easily play 40 hours more per month than usual, win a large amount of money, or move up in stakes quickly. These goals seem easy in their mind, but they’re ignoring reasons why in reality they’ll be tough to achieve. When they often fall short of reaching these high expectations, players get stuck in the disappointment of failure and they lose motivation. They’re dejected about failing, even though they were wrong to believe they could achieve such things in the first place. Really, they ought to be setting goals.

When they have goals, they strive to figure out how to achieve them. Then, when they fall short of a goal, they readjust their strategy and keep moving forward.

Unless you have solid proof of what you can expect to accomplish, turn every expectation into a goal, and then figure out how to achieve it.

Far-away goals. When you have a big dream or long-term goal without any smaller targets, it can be easy to lose motivation when things go poorly. These setbacks, such as a downswing, can make you feel as if your dream or goal is farther away, and can cause you to lose hope. Instead, break your long-term goal into more manageable chunks.

This way it’s easier to recover from a setback and continue moving forward.

Having smaller or short-term goals is important so you can see progress along the way. These small victories are essential in keeping you motivated for the long haul.

Reach a milestone, now what? If you win a tournament, have your biggest month ever, move up in stakes, go pro, or make SuperNova or SuperNova Elite without setting your next goal, you can be lacking motivation simply because you no longer have something to play for.

Indecision. There are a lot of possible goals to strive for, both within poker and outside of it. When you don’t know what you want, you end up doing a lot of random things that make it seem as if you’re unmotivated. Really, you’re undecided. Rather than getting down that you aren’t accomplishing anything, see this period for what it is: an exploration.

When there are a lot of options, you’re essentially standing at the base of several mountains trying to decide which one to climb. You’re in the process of gathering information, eventually needing to make a decision about what you want. To make the process go faster, regularly write down your options, evaluate them, and get feedback from other players.

Underlying goals. Sometimes players are motivated to avoid embarrassment, mistakes, criticism, losing money, or having their win rate drop. It’s rare for

Fundamental Five: Play Your A-Game 157 players to think of these as goals, but when viewed that way, their behavior—such as avoiding playing—makes a lot more sense. These underlying goals are a problem because you spend energy on them, rather than on the goals in poker that you really want to achieve. After identifying these underlying goals in your game, resolve the reason you want to achieve them, and you’ll have more motivation for the goals that are really important.

Personal goals. If you need to play poker, but aren’t motivated by anything within poker, consider how poker fits into your life. Then set personal goals that poker can help you to accomplish. The motivation to get hands in comes back when poker has greater importance in your life. (MGoP, 192-195)

Entitlement Why do most players believe they are above average?

Jared At the root of entitlement tilt is the belief that you have the right or deserve to win for such reasons as working harder, being smarter, and having a longer career than your opponents. It’s classic Phil Hellmuth tilt. He often reacts in ways that suggest he believes his previous accomplishments have earned him the right to win, regardless of how he currently plays.

Entitlement tilt happens when something you believe to be rightfully yours has been taken. Winning is a possession that you already own and when inevitable losses mount, it’s as if you’ve been robbed by someone not deserving of winning—either a regular or a fish.

The real problem with entitlement tilt isn’t that you believe you are a better player than your opponents. In many cases, that’s probably true. The real problem is that you believe being a better player means you should never lose. Pay close attention to what this belief is essentially saying about your mind set and the real issue emerges: overconfidence.

Overconfidence means that your confidence is exaggerated or inflated because you believe things about your game or ability that aren’t true. The belief that being better than your opponents means you should never lose is unrealistic.

Therefore, if your confidence is based on this belief, it is not based on reality.

While having confidence is important, it must be based on real ability. Believing you should never lose to your opponents creates false confidence.

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Poker does a good job of feeding false beliefs to your confidence. A great run not only pads your bankroll, it pads your confidence—unfortunately, in artificial ways for both. Players with entitlement tilt very often assume things that aren’t real during a great run. They may think: More of the great run is a direct result of their game than it actually is.

They actually own another player’s souls. Really it’s their deeper understanding of their game (plus good cards) that produces their control of the situation; but subtly it feels as if they control them.

They have achieved poker nirvana and become the great player they imagined was possible.

When a good run fuels your dreams of how good of a poker player you can be, you’re set up to tilt when poker slaps you awake. You’re a mental fish when you believe you should never lose.

Another common exaggerated belief that shows up during a great run is, “I feel like I can beat anyone.” While it may feel as if you can beat anyone, you can’t; and believing you can without a sick run of cards is a dream.

The positive emotions around this belief are so strong, it feels as if you can take on all comers. You can’t. You aren’t really that good of a player. Variance has inflated your confidence and now you’re primed for tilt when you lose. Wanting to win isn’t a problem. The problem is that you believe the lie that says you have a right to win all the time.

Believing you deserve to win or that you can beat anyone often hides real weaknesses in how you’re playing. Since in your mind, winning is already yours, it would be illogical to put in the work necessary to correct the weaknesses in your game. Recognizing these weaknesses would be a blow to your confidence. It would mean you aren’t as good as you thought. So in order to remain confident, you tell yourself these lies: “They got lucky.”

“They don’t deserve to win.”

“I win because I play well.”

“If I suck-out, it’s because I made the right play.”

“I know I work harder than them; I deserve to win.”

“This guy sucks.”

“I played solid.”

Fundamental Five: Play Your A-Game 159 These are attempts to protect your false confidence. You want to believe you’re that good. However, if it were true that you deserved to win because you’re smarter, better, or work harder, it would mean you also believe the rules of variance don’t apply to you. You know variance is part of the game, but deep down you believe (or wish) you are above it.

Once exposed, players often feel relieved that they no longer have to protect these lies. Freed to focus on their game in a real way, they use the mental energy that was previously protecting their confidence to identify and improve their poker weaknesses. It can be tough to face the weaknesses in your game, but it’s better than pretending they don’t exist.

To reduce overconfidence, do the following: Use the mental hand history to eliminate the lies in your game. When you find the correct answers, study them regularly so you can work toward mastering the truth. The better you know the correction, the less you believe the lies, and the more you can control your anger.

Inject logic when confidence is rising too high. To reduce overconfidence, use the same strategy that you use to reduce tilt. The only difference is that you’re keeping an eye out for the signs that your confidence is rising too high and injecting logic when you notice these signs. (p. 127-130)

Tommy You are not entitled to play bad just because they are playing bad. You are not entitled to tilt on the grounds that anyone would tilt after the terrible luck you’ve had. You are not entitled to play a marginal hand as a reward for folding correctly before the flop many times in a row.

You are not entitled to call all the way when you know you are beat, just because you have a big pair in the hole. And no matter how good you play, or how bad they play, you are not entitled to win. If you have time and money, you are entitled to a seat at the table. That is all. (EoP, Element # 43)

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eing able to consistently put in hours at the poker table is critical for overcoming variance and for turning solid play into solid results. I figured the best way to discuss the methodology for putting in volume is to ask for advice from someone who has experience playing an obscene number of hands.

Jason â&#x20AC;&#x153;RonFar3â&#x20AC;? Collier reached SuperNova Elite in 2009 by grinding the 100NL and the 200NL full ring tables on PokerStars. Jason, an instructor for CardRunners, achieved the milestone by playing roughly 2.5 million hands, often 24-tabling.

Let me emphasize that high volume play should not be a goal for most players looking to build their bankroll. Jason was able to maintain a consistent, solid win rate while putting in extreme volume. Good play always needs to come first and foremost. Volume should be secondary. That said, here are some tips from Jason on maximizing your volume while preserving your win rate.

Grind time requires continued focus. Before becoming a poker professional, Jason would work eight-hour days as a software engineer. From those eight hours, only two to four would require continued focus. The rest of his day allowed his mind to relax. This is not the case with poker. When playing cards, you need to stay focused during your entire session. Otherwise, your win rate will likely dip.

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Make sure that you start each session physically and mentally prepared.

Just like an athlete before practice, you should be rested, hydrated, and have no distractions. If you have a hard time focusing for long periods of time, take breaks. This is a personal preference5.

Take advantage of soft games. The best games are usually found on weekend nights when the casual player logs on to play. By playing at the best times, your edge will increase. This will translate into a higher win rate as well as less variance in the long run. Big tournaments and major promotions also bring out more recreational players.

In order to maximize the number of hands you play per hour, multi-tabling needs to be as efficient as possible. It is critical to make basic, repetitive tasks fast and effortless. Using programs like TableNinja, or AutoHotKey scripts, are invaluable for tasks such as folding quickly or picking the perfect bet size. A high-end, multi-button mouse is also an excellent investment.

Stack, cascade, or tile your tables based on your own preference and computer setup. Don't be afraid to experiment to see what works best for you.

Be proactive in preventing repetitive stress. Invest in a good chair and practice good posture. Make sure your mouse wrist is properly supported.

Color coding players may seem redundant, but it is critical to effective game selection.

I remember discussing color coding with one of my students. He mentioned that he only color codes the weak players. I recommended that he should start color coding regulars instead of focusing on the fish. Have one color for TAGs, one for LAGs, and one for weaker players (whether they are loose-passives, maniacs, or whatever).

The reason I prefer this method is simple. If a fish sits down with 76 big blinds and promptly loses it, marking him for future reference is basically useless. You are unlikely to ever see that player again.

This is why it is so difficult to specifically look for fish. They are mostly new players with a short shelf life, here today but gone tomorrow. On the other hand, you are likely to play against regulars again and again by definition. So focus your color coding efforts on them.

5

I know that I have a hard time staying on my A-game after 80 minutes. But you need to figure out your own personal limits through trial and error. Make sure you have snacks and something to drink readily available.

Fundamental Six: Put In the Hours 163 The true beauty of this system lies in what you don't see. When you scan the lobby and notice a table full of players that are not color coded, it is likely to include some weaker opponents. Therefore, looking for the absence of regulars should in turn translate into the presence of fish.

Finally, as weâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;ll see in the next section, make sure you put in the necessary time studying.

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oker is constantly evolving. As you have probably heard, today's games are different than they were a year ago and those were different than the games from three years ago. In order to continue winning, you will need to continue learning and tweaking your game.

When it comes to actually studying the game of poker, there are both active and passive ways for you to learn. Each has their place in the process of improving.

Passive Learning There are primarily three passive ways of studying poker.

1. Watching a video. Training sites like CardRunners.com offer thousands of training videos from winning players covering an assortment of poker topics. Watching a poker pro play and discuss their thought process is one of the best ways to learn away from the tables.

2. Reading books. You are doing it! A good book can provide a superior learning structure compared to a video because of the amount of theoretical content it can cover. Besides being portable and easily referenced, you can write notes or questions inside them. I encourage you to do just that in this book.

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3. Forums. The two main forums I use are on CardRunners.com and on TwoPlusTwo.com. Just browsing and searching the strategy forum or the beginner forum can be an effective, passive way of learning. Once you start reading the forums regularly, you will figure out who offers good advice and who doesnâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;t.

At some point however, it becomes important to take a more active role in your poker development. Each of these three passive learning tools can become an active learning tool. For example, after watching a video, you can post questions in a forum directly to the poker pro who produced it.

There are also message boards dedicated solely to poker books. Quite often the authors themselves are active participants. I know I am. Being able to direct a question to an author about a topic you need clarification on is a great way to learn.

Finally, sign up to a poker forum and become an active member. By familiarizing yourself with the do's and the donâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;ts of each forum, staying on topic, and being polite and respectful, you will put yourself in position to receive some solid feedback about your game.

In the next section, I will provide examples of right and wrong ways to ask for help with a hand. Hand questions are easily the most common topic posted on poker forums.

Active Learning All of these examples will deal specifically with your game, as it exists right now.

1. Review a hand history. Take a look at some of the bigger pots you have played and ask yourself if there was a better way to play the hand. If you are unsure...

2. Post the hand history on an online forum. When posting a hand history, follow these guidelines: A. Convert the hand. No one likes deciphering the hieroglyphics that are raw hand histories. CardRunners.com offers a free hand history converter that makes your hand easy to read online. This is important if you want people to help you. FlopTurnRiver.com is another site that offers a quality hand history convertor.

Fundamental Seven: Remain a Student 167 B. Include all relevant reads from your HUD. Discuss the number of hands you have on your opponent as well as basic stats like VPIP, Preflop Raise, and Three-Bet percentage. If you have some applicable postflop stats, include those as well.

C. Mention relevant table dynamics. It is important to discuss any history you may have with your opponent. This includes hands you might have seen him showdown recently or hands you have taken to showdown yourself.

D. Donâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;t post bad beats or coolers in strategy threads. Feel free to post them in low content threads though. There is usually one running on each forum.

3. Review a session. I almost always review a session after I play. Most of my review involves revisiting hand histories from all the medium and the large pots. I also examine basic stats like VPIP, Preflop Raise, Three-Bet, and Flop C-Bet. I am mostly looking for anything out of line that might point to a leak. I will go over a simple session review later in the chapter.

4. Evaluate your total game. It is helpful to periodically review your last twenty to thirty thousand hands in Hold'em Manager and search for bigger trends in your play. Think of it as taking a step back and trying to see the forest for the trees. I will do an example review like this later as well.

5. Set up a sweat session with a friend. One upside to becoming active in the forums is that you often develop friendships with other forum members. If two of you play similar limits, you could set up a sweat session and watch each other play.

A common way to do this is to use a combination of Skype and TeamViewer.

Skype is a software application that allows users to make free voice calls over the Internet. TeamViewer is also a free software application that allows remote viewing of another person's desktop. Using these two programs in tandem will allow you to watch another person play so you can discuss specific hands afterwards.

One bit of advice is to make sure you have a good microphone. I recommend a headset so that your hands are free to use while talking. A decent headset can be purchased for less than $40.

6. Hire a coach. Until you reach low or medium stakes, a poker coach is probably not the best value for the average micro stakes grinder trying to build a bankroll. A decent coach is going to start in the neighborhood of

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$50 per hour with prices quickly escalating from there. This could equate to between five and ten buy-ins depending on your current level.

If you have exhausted all the options listed above and you continue to struggle with your game, a coach can be helpful.

Reviewing a Session Below is a walkthrough of how I review a session in Hold'em Manager. I used Hold'em Manager 1 during the 2011 Challenge, but the new version, Hold'em Manager 2, has all the same capabilities and more.

First, I take a quick look at my overall stats for the day (under Reports ď&#x201A;&#x2013; By Stakes).

Figure 13-1. Hold'em Manager daily report by stakes

Looking at my numbers (figure 13-1), I can see that my VPIP, Preflop Raise, Three-Bet and Fold to Three-Bet are all in line with how I normally play. My Flop C-Bet seems normal, but my Turn C-Bet seems low. This is one area that I should look into with more detail later.

Secondly, I filter out my largest losing pots (figure 13-2). I start by selecting All for the number of hands I wish to review. The default is set to Last 100.

Figure 13-2. Largest losing pots

Fundamental Seven: Remain a Student 169 Next, I click on the bbs (big blinds) header and the software automatically sorts my hands from biggest loser to biggest winner. This makes finding losing hands fast and easy. I'll discuss the first three hands in a way that I would review them.

Hand One Stakes: 25NL Relevant Stack Sizes and Initial Reads: UTG

($38.62) is playing 13/8 over 111 hands

Hero ($25.39) is in MP2

Action: UTG raises to $0.85 and I three-bet to $2.50 with A♣ Q♠ from MP2.

Everyone else folds and UTG calls. The flop comes J♦ 6♠ 2♣. Villain checks, I c-bet $3.50 into $5.35, and the villain calls.

The turn is the 4♠ and my opponent checks again. I fire $6.00 into $12.35 and he check-raises all-in. I fold and he takes down the $24.35 pot.

Analysis: Villain seems like a straightforward TAG. This hand should be a fold preflop since there are five people still left to act. If I was in the cutoff or on the button, there might be merit to three-betting. I don’t like calling preflop since he is unlikely to have hands which I dominate and I don’t know enough about his postflop game to continue if I miss.

Nonetheless, once he calls, his most likely holding is a pocket pair. Three pairs make sets and three others are overpairs. I also think most players will call once with 88 – TT if they called preflop.

That said, I don’t like my turn bet. He won’t fold sets, KK+, and probably won’t fold QQ. Therefore, he is more likely to have a hand which continues than one that folds.

What to Take Away: Don’t three-bet this preflop in a similar situation and do not double barrel the turn.

Hand Two

Stakes: 25NL

Relevant Stack Sizes and Initial Reads:

MP2

($6.99) is playing 33/17 over 6 hands

Hero ($25.00) is in the SB

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Action: MP2 minraises to $0.50 and I three-bet preflop from the small blind to $2.00 with A♠Q♣.

Villain calls and we go to the flop. The flop comes 6♣ 6♥ 2♥.

With $4.25 in the pot, I move all-in since MP2 only has $4.99 behind. He calls with A♣ 2♣ and I fail to improve.

Analysis: Preflop is a standard isolation play versus a weak short-stacked player. Given this dry flop and my opponent having just a pot-sized bet left, I move all-in only to see that he outflopped me.

What to Take Away: Not much. I played the hand fine and got unlucky. I could have potentially made it $2.50 preflop in an attempt to commit my opponent more. In this case however, the result would have been the same.

Hand Three

Stakes: 25NL Relevant Stack Sizes and Initial Reads:

Hero ($38.30) is in MP1

BTN

($22.50) is playing 35/8 over 26 hands

Action: I raise to $0.85 from MP1 with A♥ A♠. The button calls and everyone else folds. I go to the flop heads up and it comes K♠ K♥ Q♣. I check and the villain checks back. The turn is the 2♥. I bet $1.50 into $2.05 and get minraised to $3.00. I make the call and go to the river.

The river is the T♠. I check and the villain fires $2.50 into $8.05. I call only to see K♦ T♦ for a rivered full house that flopped trips.

Analysis: Since the flop is so dry, I see more value in checking. By checking, I let my opponent potentially catch up by making a pair. I can also elicit a bluff.

Once he checks behind and the turn brings a flush draw, I lead out for value.

I don’t know what to make of his turn minraise. He could be raising as a bluff or even with a hand like 66 which he thinks is ahead of a draw. Trying to put a 35/8 player on a range in this spot is pointless. I’ll just assume that my aces are ahead of his range and try to get to showdown. Three-betting the turn doesn’t accomplish anything either.

I check the river and call his small bet only to get shown a full house. If he had fired big (70% or more of the pot), I would have folded since fish like to bet small (or to check) on early streets with monsters and to then bomb rivers.

What to Take Away: I like the way I played this hand.

Fundamental Seven: Remain a Student 171 After I am done reviewing losing hand histories, I move on to my winners (figure 13-3). It is important not to ignore your winning hands. Do not assume that because you won a hand, you played it correctly or error-free.

Figure 13-3. Largest winning pots

Next I examine any stats that seem out of line, in this case, my low Turn C-Bet. I go to the Hold'em Manager filters and click on the More Filters tab. From there, I select the Turn Continuation Bet Possible = True filter and take another look at my hand history menu (figure 13-4).

Figure 13-4. Turn continuation bet possible = true filter

As with my losers and my winners, I look at all these hand histories and decide if I played them correctly. If another stat seems out of line, I select the next appropriate filter and evaluate those hands. I continue this process until I have a clear idea of how I will approach similar situations in the future.

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Total Game Review After you have at least fifteen thousand hands to review, it is time to step back and examine your game from a macro perspective. Look for larger trends and leaks which do not appear session to session.

First, export your most recent hands and re-import them into a new database (figure 13-5).

Figure 13-5. Hold'em Manager import

Second, examine these main metrics: Graph 1: Winnings versus expected value winnings Graph 2: Showdown winnings versus non-showdown winnings HUD Big hands I'll discuss each of these using my own database.

Metric 1: Winnings Versus EV Winnings I use this graph (figure 13-6) to get a general sense for my results over a decent sample of hands. My sample size was at 25NL over 65,617 hands.

In my case, actual winnings ($716.89) and EV winnings ($721.40) are almost identical. The general trend of the graph is positive even though I appear to be coming out of a 25,000 hand break-even stretch.

Fundamental Seven: Remain a Student 173

Figure 13-6. Winnings versus EV winnings

Metric 2: Showdown Winnings Versus Non-Showdown Winnings Non-showdown winnings (also known as the red line) tend to be fairly consistent.

Showdown winnings tend to have a lot more variance. This is demonstrated by figure 13-7.

Figure 13-7. Showdown winnings versus non-showdown winnings

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Too many players focus on trying to improve one stat over the other without realizing just how interconnected both really are.

In my case, I am down roughly $549 over 65,617 hands at non-showdown which translates to losing at a rate of about 1.7 BB/100. This brings up a key point that needs to be addressed: Most winning micro stakes full ring players will have a losing red line.

This is perfectly fine. It is largely a result of giving up frequently in small pots postflop and folding your blinds preflop. Donâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;t worry about it too much as long as you are winning more money at showdown in compensation.

That said, the rate with which you are losing at non-showdown is important.

If you are losing more than 5 BB/100, you probably have some non-showdown leaks. Examples include failing to steal or resteal in the right spots, playing too fit or fold postflop, or having too big of a discrepancy between your Flop C-Bet and Turn C-Bet percentages.

Metric 3: HUD Since you imported your own sample to a new database, you can open up Hold'em Manager and examine your own tendencies. Figure 13-8 shows my stats over a sample of 65,617 hands. Here is my take on the basic stats.

VPIP/PFR: I am playing 13/10 which is perfectly fine for full ring. My Preflop Raise is around 75% of my VPIP which is a good ratio.

AF: My Aggression Factor looks solid on all streets. Anything in the neighborhood of three would be considered very aggressive while anything closer to one would be considered passive.

3B/Fold to 3B: I am three-betting 3% and folding to three-bets 68% of the time. This Three-Bet percentage is low. In fact, QQ+ and AK alone accounts for 2.6% of hands. While Iâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;m not always three-betting those hands, I can still find plenty more situations that warrant a raise preflop. This is worth reviewing. My Fold to Three-Bet percentage seems fine although on the high end. Anything between 60% and 70% is standard.

4B/4B Range: A four-bet range of 0.9% is very tight and consists solely of aces and kings. That's not to say that such a tight range wouldn't be profitable at the micros given limited reads. This is another area where I will run a filter to review when I do and don't four-bet.

Flop C-Bet/Turn C-Bet: Both of my c-bet stats seem low. I think a Flop C-Bet of around 55% with a Turn C-Bet between 50% and 55% is fine.

Fundamental Seven: Remain a Student 175

Figure 13-8. HUD import

Fold to Flop CB/Turn CB: Both stats are reasonable given my VPIP. Steal from CO/BTN/SB: My steal from the cutoff is reasonable at 22% (between 20% and 25% is standard). My button steal seems OK but is a bit on the low side at 36% (30% to 45% is standard). My small blind number is also fine, albeit a bit on the low side at 33% (30% to 50% is standard).

Vs Steal (SB/BB): My fold, call, and three-bet numbers are all reasonable from the small blind and the big blind when facing a steal. The standard for three-bets at the micros is between 5% and 10% and I am right in the middle at 8% and 7% respectfully. I prefer calling more from the big blind since I am often closing the action and getting a discount facing an opponent's steal attempt. When the steal attempt comes from the small blind (which is

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often the case), I also have the advantage of position which makes calling an attractive option.

Next, I'll discuss how to use filters to examine stats more closely and how to look for leaks. I am going to focus on the Three-Bet statistic which at 3% seems low.

You can use a similar process on any of your own stats which you want to study.

Leak-Finding Three-Bet Percentage Start with a basic filter and then go from there. Go to Filter  Edit  More Filters  Prefl op Filters  Could 3B = True. Next, select the Hole Cards tab and highlight the top of the range: AQ+, JJ. Save and close.

Next, on the Select Report Name from List select Hole Cards. You should see a screen similar to figure 13-9.

Figure 13-9. Leak-Finding Three-Bet percentage

You might have a different Stat Selection than I do, but you can simply click on the “+” button seen in the lower left hand corner of the picture above.

Since I have the filter Could 3B = True turned on, the preflop raise column tells me how often I am three-betting that particular hand. Here are some questions I would want to investigate further: I am only three-betting jacks 29% of the time and that seems low. I need to review a large portion of those hands and figure out why I am flat calling so often.

Out of the 194 times I had AQo facing a raise, I folded around 40% of the time. I need to review those situations as well.

When did I flat call with aces preflop? What about kings or queens?

Fundamental Seven: Remain a Student 177 Why are my winnings (and thus my win rate) so low with AK? I won’t attempt to answer all these questions in this chapter. I simply want to exemplify the thought process and the methodology of using Hold'em Manager to study your own game. That said, I'll take a look at some situations in which I had jacks preflop and chose not to three-bet.

Hand One Stakes: 25NL Relevant Stack Sizes and Initial Reads: ($30.21) is playing 15/10 over 225 hands, has folded to 1 out of 4 threebets, and c-bets 71% (7) of the time

CO

Hero ($25.95) is on the BTN

SB

($64.27) is playing 15/12 with a 7% Three-Bet over 256 hands

BB

($39.43) is a 15/13 TAG with a 5% Three-Bet

Action: The CO opens to $0.75 preflop and I call on the BTN with J♥ J♦. The flop comes Q♠ 8♠ 6♥. With $1.85 in the pot, he checks, and I check back. The turn is the 9♠. My opponent leads for $1.30 into $1.85 and I call.

The river is the A♣ and we both check. The CO shows 9♥ 8♥ and takes down the $4.45 pot with his two-pair.

Analysis: Versus a loose TAG opening from the cutoff, this is a great spot to three-bet with the intention of getting all-in. My reasoning is further validated when you consider that this player has shown a propensity to play back versus three-bets. If I call here, it is often with the intention of inducing a squeeze from the blinds.

Although both players in the blinds have reasonably aggressive Three-Bet stats, they are not completely out of line. Therefore, flatting in this spot is likely a poor decision.

I should always bet here when the villain checks the flop. He often has air and is looking to give up. Another likely scenario is that he has some sort of weak one-pair hand that he doesn’t know what to do with (like 77 or 56s).

On the turn, it is possible that he picks up additional equity with a hand like K♠ J♥ or A♠ T♥. I call in position since the pot is still small and I likely have the best hand. Since there is no value in betting the river, I am happy going to showdown.

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Hand Two Stakes: 25NL

Relevant Stack Sizes and Initial Reads:

MP2

($26.49) is playing 6/6 over 35 hands

Hero ($26.37) is in the CO

BB

($55.61) is playing 11/8 with a 4% Three-Bet over 472 hands

Action: MP2 raises to $0.75, I flat in the CO with J♥ J♠, and the BB squeezes to $3.10. MP2 moves all-in for $26.49 which earns folds from me and the BB. Analysis: Calling preflop with jacks in the cutoff is fine versus a tight player.

After the three-bet from a TAG and the shove from a player who is shaping up to be a nit, my fold is standard.

If MP2 had flatted the three-bet, I would have flatted as well and been happy to see a flop three-handed in position.

Hand Three

Stakes: 25NL Relevant Stack Sizes and Initial Reads: MP3 ($26.82) is playing 10/8 and has folded to 4 out of 4 three-bets over 393 hands CO

($39.07) is playing 40/7 over 43 hands

Hero ($25.00) is on the BTN

BB

($31.68) is playing 13/12 with a 5% Three-Bet over 175 hands

Action: MP3 raises to $0.85 and the CO calls. I call on the button with J♥ J♣. The SB folds and the BB squeezes to $3.20. All three of us fold.

Analysis: I don’t understand my play here. With a nit opening preflop and a 40/7 player overcalling, jacks should be a clear three-bet to isolate the Cutoff.

Once the Big Blind squeezes and everyone else folds, all three options should be considered.

Folding might be an OK play. But the more I think about this hand, I believe four-betting is a better option. It is such a great spot to squeeze. Moreover, the Big Blind's 5% Three-Bet statistic is high enough to assume that he actively searches for juicy spots to three-bet light. This certainly qualifies as a juicy spot. If he wakes up in this spot with QQ – AA, I would attribute it to being a cooler and not think twice about it.

Fundamental Seven: Remain a Student 179

Metric 4: Big Pots The last major graph I always make sure to review is big pots. I define a big pot as winning or losing more than 70 big blinds.

This is how you create your big pot graph: Filters  Edit Filters  More Filters  Other Filters  Player Won or Lost BB’s is Bigger Than  70.

After setting up the filter, I examine the graph (figure 13-10).

Figure 13-10. Big pots graph

In the past, I have noticed a correlation in my game between my overall winnings and my winnings in big pots. That seems to be the case in this sample as well.

I am not happy with this result, so the next step is to examine the biggest winners and the biggest losers just as I did earlier.

Before you do that, go to Options  Sett ings  Hands View Columns and dispose of the columns you don’t use. They simply clutter up the data when you are trying to study. Figure 13-11 on the next page shows the columns I use.

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Chapter 13

Figure 13-11. Hands view column selection

Now I'll study the winners and the losers (figure 13-12). Iâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;ll sort my data by date and look at the most recent hands first.

Figure 13-12. Winners and losers

Although you can get a good sense of how you are doing from a quick, one-line overview of your hand history, it is still worth opening up hands and studying them more closely. For example, in the fifth hand I ran kings into aces. As you saw before, this could be a cooler or it could be a result of bad play. Until you actually open up a hand and review it, you wonâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;t know for sure.

Next I'll discuss one winner and one loser. For the winner, I'll review the pocket jacks hand third from the top. For the loser, I'll review the pocket fours hand sixth from the bottom.

Fundamental Seven: Remain a Student 181

Hand One: Winning with Jacks

Stakes: 25NL Relevant Stack Sizes and Initial Reads: CO SB

($12.67) is playing 25/25 over 37 hands

($24.76) is playing 31/4 over 49 hands

Hero ($24.75) is in the BB

Action: The CO opens to $0.85. The SB three-bets to $1.45, I call in the BB with J♠ J♣, and the CO calls as well. The flop comes A♦ J♦ 6♦. The SB bets $0.80 into $4.35. I call and the CO follows.

The turn is the 7♠. The SB bets $1.40 into $6.75 and I raise to $6.00. The CO folds and the SB calls. The river is the J♥ giving me quads. The villain now leads for $7.00 into $18.75 and I shove my remaining $16.75. He calls and shows A♠ A♥ for a horrendous cooler.

Analysis: The Cutoff is playing loosely and has a 50 big blind stack. Versus him, I would have gladly three-bet and played my jacks for stacks. When the Small Blind puts in a small three-bet, I don’t think there is a lot of merit to four-betting. Still, I'm not ready to fold yet either since: I could have the best hand.

It’s not too expensive to see a flop.

I will have position on the Small Blind who clearly has bet sizing issues based on his minimum three-bet preflop.

The Cutoff could end up shoving which would allow me to see what the Small Blind does. If he calls I would fold. But if he folds I would call.

Since I don’t want to four-bet or to fold, I end up calling. I flop middle set and the Small Blind puts in a bet that is less than one-fifth of the pot. This is strange. He could be doing this for two reasons.

1. He had a hand like kings or queens preflop and is now scared of the ace.

He might or might not have a diamond in his hand.

2. He flopped a monster (flush, top set, Ax K♦, Ax Q♦) and wants to feign weakness.

I simply don’t know at this point. Since I am in position, I decide to take a chance and flat call. I'm hoping that the Cutoff reads me or the Small Blind

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as weak and shoves. I could then reshove. Either way, I am not planning on folding my hand at any point on this flop.

The Cutoff just calls and the turn is a blank. Once again, the Small Blind bets small. At this point I need to raise to build a pot versus the Small Blind if I hope to get stacks in by the river. His small bets just aren’t getting the job done.

I was really hoping that the Cutoff would shove the flop facing the small bets, but he didn’t. Since I no longer think he will shove the turn, I need to take charge of the hand.

Once the Cutoff folds and I hit quads on the river, the hand plays itself.

I would classify this hand as a bad beat for my opponent. I still think I played the hand well based on the reasons discussed above. But if he shoved at any point postflop, I would have called it off and gotten it in drawing to one out.

Hand Two: Losing with 44

Stakes: 25NL Relevant Stack Sizes and Initial Reads:

Hero ($50.75) is in MP1

MP3 SB

($20.90) is playing 17/13 over 269 hands

($60.91) is playing 33/19 over 27 hands

Action: I raise 4♦ 4♣ to $0.75 from MP1. Both MP3 and the SB call. The flop comes 4♠ 3♦ 2♦. The SB leads with a pot-sized bet of $2.50. I raise to $6.75, MP3 folds, and the SB calls.

The turn is the 7♦ and again my opponent leads with a pot-sized bet of $16.00.

I raise all-in for $43.25 and he calls with Q♦ 6♦ showing the made flush. The river is the 5♠ and the villain wins a massive 400 big blind pot.

Analysis: Preflop is standard. When a player with fishy stats pots this flop and I have top set, a raise for value is mandatory. I am 200 big blinds deep and lots of turn cards could kill my action.

The range of hands that the Small Blind could bet so aggressively with here is very wide. His most likely holdings are pairs with a draw (A3, 45, 55, 66), overpairs (77 – AA), and flush draws. He could also have a made straight or a lower set.

Fundamental Seven: Remain a Student 183 When the 7♦ comes on the turn, the villain puts me in a tough spot by betting pot. Given the range I assigned him on the flop, I am now losing to a flush but still ahead of most other hands.

It is difficult to talk about how a villain would play different hands in this scenario since I don’t know what he is thinking. I just know that he likes his hand and that he is ready to play for stacks.

This could mean that he has K♦ K♣, decided to trap preflop, led on the flop for value, and just decided to flat versus a raise. He could also have A♦ 3♠ which picked up enough additional equity to stack off with.

Since the flush draw is the only draw that gets there with the 7♦, I decide that my hand is good enough to go with. Even if I am behind a made straight or a flush, I have a redraw to the full house.

If I had an overpair with a diamond (like J♠ J♦), I would play the flop the same way but fold the turn. With aces minus a diamond, I would also raise the flop and then fold the turn.

I still consider this hand a cooler given my read on this opponent at the time.

I know from experience that such players tend to overplay their hands, even this deep.

Make a Routine I would continue doing this until I reviewed all the major pots. Often, when I begin coaching a student, checking big pots is one of the first things we do.

What I like about reviewing big pots is that there are often decisions to make on all four streets.

All this should provide some ideas of how you can review your own game by yourself or with a friend. Doing a similar leakfinder for a friend can be very educational for both of you. It gives you a chance to compare your games and to discuss differences.

14

F O U R T E

E N

FINAL THOUGHTS

“The truth of the matter is that you always know the right thing to do.

The hard part is doing it.”

–Norman Schwarzkopf

“In theory, theory and practice are the same. In practice, they aren’t.”

–Yogi Berra

I

love how quotations are able to succinctly summarize important ideas. The truth is, this book alone will not make you a winner. It is simply an honest blueprint of what I think it takes to be successful at the micros and the small stakes.

It is important that you take ownership of your education, put in the time, never stop improving, and keep a positive attitude. Focus on the process of making the right decisions at and away from the tables. If you do this day in and day out, you will become a winning player.

If you have any questions about the content of this book or wish to share a personal story of what part helped you and what part didn't, please get in touch with me through private message on CardRunners or on TwoPlusTwo. You can also contact me via Twitter (@verneer) or through my website MtMicroPoker.com.

Your feedback is invaluable.

I wish you the best of luck in your poker journey.

Hand Index

This index references starting hands specifically discussed in examples throughout the book.

AA

15, 63, 76, 82, 104, 138, 170

A7

83

KK

14, 16, 17, 67, 84, 136

A6

71

QQ

58, 134, 137

A5

83

JJ

68, 73, 119, 128, 135, 177, 178, 181

A4

95

TT

62, 73, 103, 115

A3

102

99

94

A2

102

88

31, 76

KQ

57, 70, 107, 115, 118

77

59, 99, 120

KJ

80

66

77, 93, 101, 106, 117

KT

106

55

134

QJ

78, 116, 118

44

182

Q9

102

33

58

JT

69, 95, 115, 122

22

115

J8

60

AK

62, 84, 133, 137

T9

135, 139

AQ

15, 68, 101, 121, 169, 170

T8

60

AJ

67, 78, 140

98

105

AT

117, 140

76

79

A9

69

65

134

A8

120

54

102

Index

Numbers 2011 Challenge 2, 4, 9, 14, 19, 61, 66, 75, 93, 103, 118, 136, 168

A absolute position 77, 111 aces 16, 48, 52, 65, 75, 76, 79, 85, 95, 104, 130, 138, 139, 170, 174, 176, 180, 183 A-game 3, 4, 143–149, 151, 153, 155, 157, 159, 162 aggression 24–26, 30, 33, 36–38, 42, 49, 54, 58, 63, 65, 66, 70, 77, 78, 80, 95, 117, 120, 122, 132, 133, 135, 138– 141, 174, 177

bet-fold 16, 134, 135 bet sizing 34, 46, 60, 78, 101, 103, 137, 181 B-game 145, 146 big blind 13, 35, 46, 54–56, 61, 62, 68, 77, 81, 82, 88–90, 92, 93, 96, 100, 110, 113, 116–118, 120, 125, 134, 135, 175, 181, 182 big pots 13, 179, 183 blocker 41, 52, 67, 69, 81, 83, 129 blocking bet 31, 73, 121, 135, 140 reverse 31, 135 bluff 32, 41, 52, 79–81, 83, 99, 101, 107, 110, 116, 129, 135, 136, 138, 140, 170 catching 32, 132, 136 raise 136

Aggression Factor 25, 36–38, 54, 63, 95, 174

board texture 29, 60, 76, 79, 97, 98, 110, 112, 113, 117, 118, 127, 129

Angelo, Tommy 4, 143–145, 147, 148, 150, 151, 154, 155, 159

bottom pair 102

AutoHotKey Script 162

break-even 8, 9, 11–13, 91, 172 broadway 52, 71, 92, 99, 106 Burtzlaff, Eric “Damn Ringer” 46

B

busted draw 136, 138

backdoor equity 118, 134

button 27, 49–52, 60, 63, 69, 77, 79, 81, 83, 87, 88, 92, 94, 96, 99–102, 110– 113, 116, 117, 120, 121, 125, 133–135, 169, 170, 175, 176, 178

back-raise 63

buy-in 8, 10–13, 19–22, 34, 152, 168

backdoor draw 57, 79, 101, 102, 115, 116, 119, 122, 138, 139

balance 71, 155 Baluga Theorem 133 bankroll management 3, 4, 19–22

190 Building a Bankroll

C

D

calling station 41, 42, 46, 81, 102, 135

"Damn Ringer" 46

CardRunners.com 144, 161, 165, 166, 185

database 9, 21, 37, 70, 81, 87, 88, 172, 174

c-bet see continuation bet

donk bet 39, 57, 112, 117, 118

C-game 145, 146

double barrel 28, 59, 60, 101, 133, 138, 169

check 16, 21, 31–33, 42, 54, 58–60, 62, 63, 68, 70–73, 76, 78, 79, 82, 94–96, 100, 102, 104–107, 111, 113, 118, 119, 121, 125, 129–131, 133–139, 169, 170, 177, 183 check-call 29, 39, 67, 79, 95, 103, 105, 117, 118, 131, 134, 135, 138 check-fold 29, 39, 79, 94, 104, 116, 121, 132, 134 check-raise 29, 39, 79, 94, 104, 105, 118, 120, 130, 131, 133, 134, 138, 169 cold call 76, 82, 83 Collier, Jason “RonFar3” 161 continuation bet

downswing 7–13, 143, 156

E early position 46, 47, 62, 66, 76, 100, 104, 114, 122 eights 31, 76, 77, 93 entitlement 144, 157, 158 equity 14, 15, 59–61, 69, 80, 98, 101, 102, 104, 105, 115, 116, 118, 119, 129, 130, 133, 134, 139, 141, 177, 183 backdoor 118, 134 fold 69, 73, 83, 97, 99–103, 114, 116, 117, 122, 129, 134

flop 5, 15, 24–28, 32, 33, 38–41, 51, 54, 58–63, 67, 68, 71–73, 75, 78, 84, 95–106, 109, 111–122, 126, 129, 133–135, 137, 140, 167–169, 171, 174

EV see expected value

turn 24, 26, 27, 38–40, 54, 119, 140, 168, 171, 174

EV Winnings 172, 173

Evplusplus 9, 11 EV Results 14, 15

cooler 5, 13, 16, 42, 48, 85, 167, 178, 180, 181, 183

expectation 91, 156

cutoff 27, 42, 49, 62, 63, 81, 83, 87, 88, 96, 100, 110, 113, 115, 118, 134–136, 169, 175, 177, 178

exploit 30–33, 38–41, 46, 47, 60, 103, 119

expected value 14, 78, 91, 102

Index 191

F

H

filter 13, 90, 168, 171, 174, 176, 179

hand history 149, 159, 166, 171, 180

float 1, 39–42, 55, 99, 110, 141

hand reading 128, 136

Flop C-Bet see continuation bet

heads up 5, 20, 39, 48, 58, 63, 77, 90, 94, 112, 113, 128–130, 170

flop dynamics 97–99 flop texture see board texture flush draw 33, 62, 68, 72, 74, 82, 100, 104, 107, 113, 116, 120, 131, 138, 170, 182, 183 backdoor 57, 79, 102, 116, 119, 138, 139

hijack 49, 82, 83, 115, 118, 128, 134 Hold'em Manager 167, 168, 171, 172, 174, 177 HUD 3, 23, 29, 33, 34, 53, 113, 167, 172, 174, 175 HUD stats 5, 23, 24, 28

naked 115 nut 94, 101, 129 fold 1, 14, 15, 17, 24–28, 30, 31, 33, 36, 38–41, 46, 51, 52, 59–63, 65–84, 91–93, 95–97, 99–106, 110, 111, 113, 116–119, 121, 122, 125, 126, 129, 131, 132, 134, 135, 137–140, 168, 169, 174, 175, 178, 181, 183

I immediate odds 104 implied odds see odds induce 79, 80, 82, 135 a bluff 136

fold equity see equity Fold to Three-Bet 25, 27, 28, 33, 40, 41, 61, 62, 66, 67, 69, 73, 93, 168, 174 four-bet 17, 36, 40, 41, 52, 56, 61, 65– 70, 72–75, 80–84, 96, 174, 181 four-bet bluff 81 fours 104, 180 full house 15, 31, 72, 104, 105, 134, 138, 170, 183 full ring 2, 4, 5, 20, 27, 67, 81, 161, 174

G Galfond, Phil 144 goals 1, 109, 144, 151, 152, 155–157 gutshot 16, 68, 72, 95

a shove 15, 76 a squeeze 68, 177 information 4, 11, 13, 28, 29, 34, 111, 114, 145, 151, 154, 156 initiative 68, 69, 87 isolate 15, 16, 36, 56–60, 63, 66, 69, 72, 74, 92, 94, 106, 119, 137, 170, 178

J jacks 72, 74, 79, 106, 129, 176–178, 181

192 Building a Bankroll

K

middle position 46, 48, 57, 71, 92, 113, 116, 125

kicker 32, 33, 37, 43, 51, 61, 68, 69, 79, 96, 102, 117, 137, 140

minraise 29, 30, 32, 46, 68, 72, 78, 80, 84, 93, 94, 170

kings 16, 17, 52, 61, 65, 75, 76, 79, 106, 132, 174, 176, 180, 181

moving up 1–3, 20, 21, 144, 153, 154 multi-tabling 118, 162 multi-way 5, 32, 77, 92, 94

L LAG 5, 16, 28, 35, 36, 37, 51, 52, 54, 55, 56, 63, 67, 82, 83, 102, 113, 133, 162 late position 34, 41, 46, 57, 66, 91, 100, 106, 118, 122 leak 4, 9, 13, 36, 38, 41, 75, 139, 167, 172, 174, 176 “Leatherass” 144 leveling 140 limp 15, 16, 45, 56–60, 63, 69, 78, 92, 94, 106, 111, 117, 119, 137

N naked flush draw 115 hand 115 overcards 116 nines 60, 131, 132 nit 5, 26–28, 31, 35, 36, 39, 42, 53, 54, 71, 82, 178

limp-raise 16, 56

Non-Showdown Winnings 90, 91, 172, 173

loose-aggressive 36, 51, 141

nut draw 94, 101, 129

loose-passive 28, 30, 36, 43, 51, 100, 101, 106, 113, 114, 116, 134, 135 losing 3, 8, 9, 13, 14, 21, 22, 35, 89, 144, 150–153, 155, 156, 168, 169, 171, 174, 179, 182, 183

M maniac 84, 139, 162 marginal hands 26, 35, 61, 75, 93, 98, 159 situation 22, 23, 29 winner 11, 13

O odds immediate 104 implied 61, 74, 75, 77, 78, 93, 104 pot 28, 63, 74, 75, 77, 78, 79, 104 one-gapper 43, 56, 74, 75 one-pair 52, 98, 104, 133, 138, 140, 177 open-ended straight draw 139 opening ranges 33, 36, 43, 46–53, 56, 61, 62, 68, 69, 140

Index 193 overbet 78 overlimp 56

P perceived fold equity 83 PFR see preflop raise PokerStove 129 polarize 32, 33 postflop 5, 21, 24, 27, 28, 33, 36, 41, 42, 46, 47, 52–55, 57–59, 62, 64, 66–69, 72, 74, 76–80, 82, 83, 85, 89, 92, 94, 96, 98, 100, 103, 119, 123, 128, 139, 167, 169, 174, 182 pot control 32, 73, 95, 102, 117, 133– 135 pot odds see odds pot-sized bet 29, 30, 31, 32, 57, 62, 105, 170, 182 preflop raise 5, 25–28, 36, 37, 47, 54, 58, 62, 80, 88, 98, 112, 167, 168, 174, 176 profitable 46, 48, 70, 75, 79, 83, 87, 99, 101, 109, 110, 114, 117, 123, 151, 153, 174 ProPokerTools 129 PSB see pot-sized bet

Q queens 61, 65, 72, 79, 106, 126, 132, 176, 181

R raise 34, 36, 57, 63, 72, 76, 104, 107, 117, 119, 120, 129, 139, 140, 170 raise size 47, 80 range 5, 13, 16, 17, 20, 21, 23, 26, 28, 30, 32, 33, 41, 42, 47–53, 55–58, 60– 63, 65, 67–77, 80, 89–93, 96, 98–100, 104, 105, 113, 115, 116, 119, 120, 122–127, 129–132, 134, 137, 138, 140, 146, 170, 174, 176, 182, 183 readless 50, 53 reads 3, 4, 14–17, 21–45, 49, 50, 53, 57–63, 66–80, 82–84, 92–96, 98, 99, 102–106, 109, 110, 112, 118–121, 126–128, 130–133, 137–140, 143, 144, 166, 167, 169, 170, 174, 177, 178, 181–183 red line see Non-Showdown Winnings redraw 134, 183 reg see regular regular 5, 15, 22, 32, 34, 38, 41, 46, 51, 67, 69, 76, 81, 92, 103, 117, 122, 128–130, 141, 154, 157, 162, 163, 197 re-isolate 16 relative position 77, 110–112 reraise 70 reshove 93, 182 respect 3, 33, 44, 110, 112–114, 117, 151, 152, 166 resteal 55, 69, 174 result oriented 81 reverse blocking bet 31, 135

194 Building a Bankroll river 1, 15, 16, 21, 25, 29–35, 57, 59, 67, 68, 71, 72, 74, 76, 79, 82, 84, 85, 94, 95, 104–107, 118–122, 131–138, 140, 141, 170, 177, 181, 182 “RonFar3” 161

SPR see stack-to-pot ratio squeeze 17, 63, 66–68, 70–74, 79, 82, 84, 90, 93, 177, 178 stack-size 44 stack-to-pot ratio 21, 79, 82, 84, 99, 115

S

steal 24–26, 33, 36, 48, 51, 54, 88, 92, 96

Schmidt, Dusty “Leatherass” 144

straight 95, 97, 98, 101, 105, 115, 134, 139, 141, 182, 183

semi-bluff 14, 133 semi-tight aggressive 36 set 16, 27, 28, 40, 48, 58, 64, 82, 94, 101, 102, 104, 106, 114, 115, 126, 132, 138, 140, 141, 154, 157, 158, 167, 168, 181, 182 set mine 27, 28, 40 sevens 59, 61, 134 short-stack 69, 72, 170

straight draw 104, 107, 116, 120, 121, 138 backdoor 79, 101, 102, 105, 115, 119, 122 open-ended 139 strategy 3, 23, 31, 38, 44, 45, 148, 153, 154, 156, 159, 166, 167 suited ace 56, 67, 72, 83, 93

short-stacker 17, 31, 44, 56 shove 14–16, 67, 72, 76, 78, 80, 81, 83, 84, 93, 178, 181, 182

connector 56, 75, 122 SuperNova Elite 8, 155, 156, 161

showdown 25, 28, 29, 35, 37, 41, 46, 57, 75, 79, 88–91, 99, 101, 102, 105, 107, 115, 118, 119, 132–135, 138, 167, 170, 172–174, 177

sweat session 167

Showdown Winnings 88–91, 172, 173

T

sixes 93, 104

table dynamic 5, 33, 70, 88, 110–112, 167

six-max 2, 4, 5, 20, 36, 81 skill 136, 148, 149, 153–155 SLAG 35–37, 113, 117 slowplaying 79, 102, 115, 120, 132, 138, 140, 141 small blind 42, 46, 49, 53, 55, 56, 58, 69, 72, 74, 82, 88–90, 92, 96, 100–102, 104, 128, 133, 170, 175

swings 8, 9, 20

TableNinja 162 TAG 5, 24, 27–29, 35–38, 40, 63, 83, 98, 101, 113, 116–118, 125, 132, 133, 134, 162, 169, 177, 178 target 56, 70, 72, 73, 92 TeamViewer 167 Tendler, Jared 4, 143–149, 151–159

Index 195 tens 37, 62, 73, 101, 102, 105, 106, 116, 132

W

Three-Bet Percentage 24, 26–29, 33, 41, 43, 62, 66, 81, 83, 84, 93, 167, 174, 176

way ahead/way behind 102, 107, 134

three-bet pots 41, 133 three-betting 15–17, 25, 28, 30, 34, 36, 1 41, 42, 46, 47, 49, 51–56, 61, 65–71, 1 73–85, 87–93, 95, 96, 118, 120, 122, 1 128, 133, 140, 167–170, 174–178, 181 1 tight aggressive 36 1 tilt 1, 3, 61, 143–145, 147–149, 151, 1 152, 154, 155, 157–159 1 timing tells 35 1 top pair 14, 32, 36, 37, 61, 79, 95, 96,

122, 131, 132, 140

trapping 75, 102, 183 1 triple-barrel 57, 140 1 bluff 136 two-pair 14, 94, 95, 98, 101, 115, 122, 132, 138, 140, 141, 177 twoplustwo.com 7, 133, 143, 144, 166, 185

V value bet 36, 71, 79, 107, 136, 138 variance 2, 7–14, 20, 41, 78, 143, 151, 158, 159, 161, 162, 173 “vinivici9586” 8 volume 8, 9, 11, 12, 19, 20, 37, 161, 162, 172, 174 VPIP 5, 24–28, 33, 36, 37, 49, 51, 52, 54, 71, 88, 98, 141, 167, 168, 174, 175

Wille, Vincent “vinivici9586” 8 win rate 4, 9, 11–13, 17, 18, 20, 41, 156, 161, 162, 177

Notes

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