The Actuary July/Aug 2025 by Redactive Media Group

LIFE

Biohacking: not just a mad fad?

COVID

Insights from perspective

OPINION

‘Uncertain times’ – are they really?

WITH RESPECT

New IFoA president Paul Sweeting on building bridges across the profession

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ONLINE

Magazine: theactuary.com IFoA: actuaries.org.uk

PUBLISHER

Redactive Publishing Ltd

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ACCOUNT

DIRECTOR

Tiffany van der Sande

MANAGING EDITOR

Melissa Walton

+44 (0)20 7880 6246 melissa.walton@redactive.co.uk

SUB-EDITOR

Kate Bennett

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ART EDITOR

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PICTURE EDITOR

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EXECUTIVE

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SUBSCRIPTIONS

EDITOR

Alex Martin editor@theactuary.com

FEATURES EDITORS

features@theactuary.com

● Travis Elsum: Environment and sustainability

● Lily Hallett: Pensions

● Edward Lovelock: Student editor

● Blessing Mbukude: Life

● Lisa Morgan: Health and care

● James Reeder: General insurance

● Aoife Walsh: Life

IFOA COMMS LEAD

Sonia Sequeira sonia.sequeira@actuaries. org.uk

IFOA EDITORIAL

ADVISORY PANEL

Peter Tompkins (chairman), Chika Aghadiuno, Nico Aspinall, Naomi Burger, Matthew Edwards, Jessica Elkin, Richard Purcell, Sonal Shah, Nick Silver

Subscriptions from outside the actuarial profession, per annum: UK: £125, Europe: £160, rest of world: £195. To subscribe, email: editor@theactuary.com

Changes of address and subscription queries, email: membership@actuaries.org.uk

Published by the Institute and Faculty of Actuaries (IFoA), Staple Inn Hall, High Holborn, London WC1V 7QJ.

The editor and the IFoA are not responsible for the opinions put forward in TheActuary No part of this publication may be reproduced, stored or transmitted in any form, or by any means, without prior written permission. While every effort is made to ensure accuracy of the content, the publisher and its contributors accept no responsibility for any material herein. The editorial content of this magazine is intended for your personal information only and all views expressed are the author’s/authors’ own. No part of the editorial content shall constitute legal, financial, professional, corporate or career advice, and should not be relied upon as such, regardless of location, circumstance and jurisdiction; nor is it intended to solicit business.

Looking beyond our borders

Globalisation has been through the wringer over the last year. Populist movements across the world have been inﬂuential in encouraging us to put our own countries ﬁrst, often at the expense of those outside our borders. Where there might be nuance, we have soundbites; and where there should be curiosity and compassion, we see walls.

I am proud that as an institute, and as a magazine, we buck this trend. In this issue alone, we have articles from authors based in Kenya, Canada, Malaysia, Australia, Hong Kong, India and the UK – all edited by a team of volunteer actuaries working in Switzerland, Zimbabwe, Bermuda and the UK. We also interview the new IFoA president, who is based in the Middle East. This global melting pot creates a result that is far greater than any single country could produce.

Our special report this time looks at the insurance gap (p24), and the innovative new insurance products being created to ﬁll it. This is a global issue thatcan only be solved by cross-border collaboration.

“I AM PROUD THAT OUR INSTITUTE AND THIS MAGAZINE ARE GLOBAL MELTING POTS”

Covid was resolutely a global problem. We examine the pandemic’s longer-term impacts – on breast cancer diagnoses (p51), and on the UK’s wider mortality trends (p54).

It’s all about pushing boundaries, too. In terms of insurance, we discuss on page 48 how best to manage the demands of data; on page 44, how to use advanced data science in health and care. And pushing the boundaries of the body is explored in Greg Solomon’s challenging read on biohacking (p34).

I wrote in my last editorial about the importance of discussion and sharing ideas as an antidote to uncertainty. The importance of this is only ampliﬁed in relation to breaking down borders. Insurance is evolving around the world, and only by opening the curtains and looking outside can we see it for ourselves.

ALEX MARTIN

ALEX MARTIN Editor editor@theactuary.com

08 NEWS

Need-to-know from the IFoA, including events and volunteering, plus profession-wide news

14 INFOGRAPHIC

At-a-glance facts and ﬁgures. This issue: the Member Perspectives survey results

16 BIG QUESTION

Are we really living in ‘uncertain times’?

Two actuaries give their views

18 DISCUSSION

Opinions from across the profession – this month, Cat Drummond, Sandy Trust and Ed Lovelock

20 INTERVIEW

Paul Sweeting, the new IFoA president, on global relationships and actuarial education

PAUL SWEETING

“I SEE THE IFO A PRESIDENT ROLE AS FACILITATORY AND AMBASSADORIAL”

IN FOCUS

32 STUDENT AUTHOR WHEELS OF FORTUNE Ritesh Gupta shares the actuarial techniques that underpin F1 racing

34 LIFE INSURANCE HERE TO STAY

Biohacking: could any of your policyholders soon be doing it?

Greg Solomon explains the longevity trend

39 TECHNOLOGY CHAOS THEORY

Part 2 of our series on quantum computing for actuaries: how it can help with true randomness

44 HEALTH A NEW PATHWAY

Jacky Tam and Michiel Luteijn outline their framework for using data science in health and care

48 GENERAL INSURANCE TAKE THE PLUNGE

Elevate your data use with ‘offensive’ storage solutions, advocate William Diffey, Arun Vijay and Alastair Lauder

ONLINE

You don’t have to wait for our next bimonthly magazine. Find much more content online –including our new podcast and video series – at theactuary.com

NEXT ISSUE

The issue after this, Sept/Oct, marks a year since our relaunch. We look forward to another 12 months of great content, thanks to you –to contribute, email editor@theactuary.com

HORIZON

58 SOFT SKILLS

Junaid Iqbal examines how actuaries can put their mortality expertise to their own good use

61 ACTUARY AND…

Bollywood dancer. Darshika Agarwal combines her hobby with fundraising

62 MEMBER NEWS

All about you, and the actuarial community

65 PUZZLES

Find more from The Actuary at theactuary.com

There, you can also sign up for our weekly email newsletter

51 HEALTH HIDDEN FIGURES

The Covid pandemic’s impact on breast cancer survival rates is a valuable lesson on late diagnosis

54 PENSIONS

TIME WILL TELL Covid, ﬁve years on: Matt Fletcher surveys the effects on UK health and mortality

Our popular page of brainteasers

66 BACK FOR MORE

Suggestions for what next to read, watch, listen to and explore…

Cover image: Peter Searle

Asia Conference 2025

25 – 26 September, Kuala

Lumpur, Malaysia

Join top actuarial minds at the 10th IFoA Asia Conference 2025

Kuala Lumpur | 25–26 September 2025

Theme: Reshaping Risk – The Actuarial Role in a Changing World

Celebrate a decade of insight, innovation, and impact with leading actuaries and industry experts across Asia and beyond. Discover cutting-edge developments in AI, sustainability, regulation, and risk through sessions shaped by regional perspectives.

SCAN TO BOOK YOUR PLACE

Whether you’re a senior decision-maker, a mid-career professional, or an aspiring actuary, this is your chance to gain CPD, exchange ideas, and build valuable connections at one of the region’s most anticipated actuarial gatherings.

WELCOME

Empowering a new generation

It is hard to believe that my year as IFoA president is coming to an end. I began my term with the goal of working to ensure a sustainable future for the next generation of actuaries. In the past sessional year, I have focused on the priorities of vision, value and engagement. As I reﬂect on our progress, I am heartened to see how far we have come.

Council has made signiﬁcant strides in broadening and deepening our vision for the IFoA. This encapsulates nine key principles that range from qualiﬁcation and lifelong learning to member experience and value, from research and thought leadership to public interest and impact. This vision will shape our strategy for the years to come.

We have added value for members, offering chartered status – an ongoing distinction that members can use to show they embody the best of actuarial science. It also helps to inspire the next generation to join the profession.

I am passionate about empowering volunteers and have wanted to say ‘thank you’. On all my engagements around the world, we held events to celebrate volunteers and hear how we can continue to enhance their experience and focus on being a member-led organisation. Having personally met thousands of members and volunteers, and attended over 150 events, I certainly identify with the passion, pride and a sense of belonging that members have with our community.

It has been a privilege to represent the IFoA, our members and our profession, and I am assured that the key to progress is working together. I joined the panels and delegates of our landmark Life, GIRO and Asia conferences and attended our ﬁrst-ever India conference, recognising the relevance and impact of our South Asian membership. I am also happy to see that Staple Inn, the spiritual home of the UK actuarial profession, is buzzing with events, bringing members together.

On my travels, I have particularly enjoyed engagements with the next generation of actuaries. Visits to universities have helped us reach the potential actuaries of the future, promoting the profession’s signiﬁcance and importance, as well as its excellent career prospects. We are here not just for us but also future actuaries.

In addressing challenges this year, I am proud to see how the council, board and the executive work together to achieve the right outcome for our members. I wish continued collaboration

DO GET IN TOUCH

Email me to share your thoughts: presidents@actuaries.org.uk

and effective partnerships going forward to uncover our strength and wisdom, for the greater good.

Ahead of the AGM on 10 July, we have released our annual report, Advancing the profession together. It showcases the achievements of our members working alongside the IFoA, so please do take a look. At the AGM, I will be handing the presidential baton to Paul Sweeting and would like to wish him the best of luck. I extend my thanks to the immediate past president, Kalpana Shah, for her unwavering support, and to the council, board and the executive for the work that they have achieved. Thank you for your support, encouragement and kind words over the past year. It has been a privilege to represent and serve you as president of the IFoA.

KARTINA TAHIR THOMSON

President of the Institute and Faculty of Actuaries

THE

AND NEED-TO-KNOW FROM THE IFoA

INTO THE BLUE: Summertime in the northern hemisphere, and many holidaymakers will be heading to Sardinia (pictured). It’s a ‘blue zone’, a term describing areas of the world with a high proportion of long-living people. It was coined in 2004, after American journalist Dan Buettner investigated longevity in Okinawa, Japan, for National Geographic magazine and went on to identify four more similar places (ringing them in blue pen on a map): Sardinia; Nicoya in Costa Rica; Ikaria in Greece; and Loma Linda in California. He has since created the brand Blue Zones, promoting his team’s research and selling related lifestyle products. His ﬁndings and data are much questioned, however. Saul Newman of the Centre for Longitudinal Studies at University College London says: “The biggest secret of the blue zones is that they don’t exist.” Use the code to dive in more

PENSIONS

PENSION SCHEME DESIGN: REVIEW REPORT OUT

The report has now been issued following the IFoA’s thematic review into defined benefit pension scheme design. Pension scheme design: actuarial advice on changes to member benefits by David Gordon finds that, in general, actuarial advice in this area was of good quality with sound levels of compliance with standards. However, it also identifies opportunities to improve consistency and clarity, and to focus on scheme member outcomes. This is an important area of work with public interest impact; we encourage actuaries to build on existing strengths by enhancing these areas. The findings also offer helpful context for regulators as they consider how to support pensions actuaries. PUBLICATION

LEGISLATION

UK PENSION SCHEMES BILL

READ THE REPORT Use the code to access it

The government announced its Pension Schemes Bill on 5 June. It aims to strengthen pension investment by supporting around 20 million people who stand to beneﬁt from its reforms, as well as enable changes across small pots, value for money and a range of other initiatives.

It provides for consolidation in the pensions market and focuses on value and outcomes for members. The IFoA and its Pensions Board will be engaging with decision makers, parliamentarians, the pensions industry and members on shaping outcomes. EVENT

CURRENT ISSUES IN PENSIONS: EVENT REVIEW

In May, the IFoA Pensions Board hosted the ‘Current issues in pensions’ conference at Staple Inn Hall, with members hearing about a range of critical pensions issues. The sessions were chaired by Gemma Cayton, Pensions Board member and chair of the IFoA’s Pensions Lifelong Learning Sub-committee.

In his keynote address, Chris Curry, principal of the Pensions Dashboard Programme, gave valuable insights on industry connection, user testing and future opportunities within the dashboard programme.

Interactive sessions busted myths around collective defined contribution schemes and explored the implications of the new defined benefit funding regime. There was also an update on UK population mortality trends over 2024, examining the implications for occupational pension schemes.

NEWS IN BRIEF

PROFESSIONAL SUPPORT ALWAYS AVAILABLE

The IFoA Helpdesk is a free, conﬁdential resource for you, offering expert advice on professional and regulatory matters. With changes coming to the Actuaries’ Code, you may have questions surrounding that; or perhaps an ethical dilemma to discuss or a need for guidance on a matter? As part of the IFoA’s commitment to support members, we encourage all members to use it whenever they need.

Use the code to ﬁnd out more

IFOA ANNUAL REPORT

The IFoA has published its latest Annual Report, for 2024/2025, entitled Advancing the profession together. It shares the steps that have been taken to advance both the organisation and the profession during the past year, celebrating the breadth and depth of our collective work and achievements.

Use the code to read it, and see IFoA CEO Paul Lewis’s column on page 13

NEW BENEFIT: MEMBER MENTORING PROGRAMME

The IFoA Mentoring Programme is a bespoke new platform that makes it easy to match with a qualiﬁed IFoA member who can encourage and support you to meet your goals. A variety of mentors are on offer from a range of different practice areas. The platform also includes an extensive free resource library and creates a record of your CPD requirements. Use the code to sign up

COUNCIL

Your chance to vote and influence change at the IFoA

HAVE YOUR SAY ON THE PROFE SSION’S FUTURE

Membership of the IFoA council is an important role, with stewardship responsibilities that require strong governance, leadership and accountability skills. Those elected will help to build a future for the IFoA that reﬂects what our members want and need, as well as the demands and evolution of the profession.

Eligible members can now vote for their preferred candidate – play your part in building a council that fairly represents our global membership’s views and aspirations. Voting will be open until 14.00 BST on Tuesday 8 July. For more on the IFoA’s governance structure, see page 23

EVENT

DON’T MISS THE AGM AND PRESIDENTIAL ADDRESS

SUBSCRIPTIONS

Use the code to cast your vote

Share your views and shape how the IFoA supports and delivers value for members by booking your place at the annual general meeting at 09:00 BST on 10 July. You can attend in person or via online livestream. Questions can be submitted in advance, to the IFoA’s corporate secretary (email corpsec@ actuaries.org.uk) or to presenters on the day.

Incoming IFoA president Paul Sweeting (left) will also deliver his presidential address on 10 July, at 17:00 BST. Book now to hear him speak –attending in person at Staple Inn Hall or via online livestream –as he outlines his vision for his presidency and the profession. See interview, page 22

BOOK YOUR PLACE

Use the code to secure a spot

MEMBERSHIP FEES FOR THIS YEAR

The IFoA reviews its subscription fees each year as part of its commitment to providing transparency and value for money. IFoA council has set the fees for 2025/2026 to ensure that they remain fair and sustainable, and reﬂect the beneﬁts of IFoA membership.

LIST OF FEES

Use the code to go to the member subscriptions webpage

GET INVOLVED

EVENT

LAUNCH OF VOLUNTEER AWARDS

The IFoA Volunteer Awards are a new initiative that will recognise the contribution of its thousands of volunteers around the world, with each entry assessed by a member panel. The ﬁrst awards event, to take place in February, will have four categories: Team excellence, First-time volunteer, Member impact, Volunteer of the year. Look out for updates on the IFoA Communities forum, social media feeds and newsletters – they’ll tell you where to ﬁnd nomination forms and provide submission dates. We hope you’ll join us in recognising, celebrating and thanking those who give their expertise and enthusiasm to the profession.

NOMINATE A VOLUNTEER

Use the code to ﬁnd out more and complete the form

EVENT

FUTURE-READY LEADERSHIP WORKSHOPS ON OFFER

The IFoA is hosting a one-day CPD event for members, on 1 October, 9.30am to 4.30pm at Staple Inn Hall. There are 20 spaces available. The focus of the day is ‘preparing for the future’, as well as the business skills needed for personal growth and team success. There will be three workshops: How to develop your skills – led by Jane Barrett, co-author of Taking Charge of Your Career Building your personal skills – led by personal marketing expert Lorna Hudson How to have career conversations to develop your team – led by HR professional Juliet McCarthy.

Q&A: DEBBIE WEBB

IF O A VOLUNTEER, PENSIONS

Debbie Webb is a senior consultant at WTW and a longstanding IFoA volunteer in many capacities.

What made you volunteer? I started on the Pensions Consultation Committee. I am passionate about ensuring the pensions legislative and regulatory framework works for members, trustees and sponsors, and is in the public interest. As well as shaping consultation responses, volunteering has allowed me to engage with government, The Pensions Regulator and others to inﬂuence policy and regulation. Joining the Pensions Board, I wanted to help the IFoA give pensions actuaries all they need, such as opportunities for continuing professional development and insightful research.

Has it informed your work life? My day job means I can give context and experience when responding to government and regulators. These interactions, in turn, give me useful insights for clients. Volunteering has also given me opportunities to network, in pensions and elsewhere.

Any unexpected insights? It has been enlightening to interact with other boards, noting similarities in the way we work, but also that the major concerns, focuses and the way things are run can be very different.

What’s the greatest challenge? Juggling work and volunteering can be challenging, although I have a

supportive employer. Time pressure has meant that ensuring our ideas translate into actions can be diﬃcult.

A highlight?

Giving evidence to the government’s Work and Pensions Committee on sustainability and ﬁduciary duty; it was a privilege to contribute. Other highlights have been our industry workshop on the future of pensions actuaries, and the re-introduction of a one-day, in-person pensions seminar.

Would you recommend it?

Deﬁnitely. There are many ways to volunteer, from joining a research working party to being on a Board subcommittee, so choose something that interests you and ﬁts your available time. Working with experienced, interesting actuaries from across the industry and other disciplines, and gaining insight into the inner workings of the profession, government and regulators, is enjoyable and invaluable.

LATEST IFoAVOLUNTEER OPPORTUNITIES

General insurance: Periodic

Payment Orders Working Party – members deadline 15 July

General insurance: Blockchain and Fintech Working Party –members deadline 20 July

APPLY FOR A ROLE

Use the code to see all volunteering positions on the IFoA website

VOLUNTEER SPOTLIGHT

PUBLICATION

CLIMATE RESILI ENCE ‘THINK’ PIECE

The IFoA ‘think’ thought-leadership series promotes debate on topics across the spectrum of actuarial work and beyond, providing a platform for members and stakeholders to share ideas that may differ from the ‘house’ view. Through it, the IFoA hopes to challenge the status quo, question orthodoxy and shine a light on complex or underexamined topics, stimulating discussion to tackle issues from different perspectives. The 11th paper in the series, Behavioural Interventions for Building Climate Resilience, was

written by IFoA Fellow Rajeshwarie VS as a follow-up to her previous ‘think’ paper The Brain Game: How can Actuaries Leverage Behavioural Economics? In the new piece, she argues that ‘bottom-up’ actions by individuals are crucial to combat climate change, and highlights how behavioural economics can drive sustainable behaviours through targeted interventions.

If you have an idea for a possible future ‘think’ piece subject, email public.affairs@actuaries.org.uk

MIDDLE EAST CONFERENCE: SPEAKERS ANNOUNCED

Members of the Saudi Arabia Insurance Authority will be joining the speaker line-up for the IFoA’s Middle East Conference this autumn. The keynote address will be given by Abdullah Alhomaid, the Authority’s deputy CEO of market conduct.

There will be a risk-based capital plenary session with senior actuarial analyst Arub Alhosain, and another called ‘Shaping the future of actuarial excellence in Saudi Arabia: Building professional and scientiﬁc foundations’ with Khozama Alkhorijy, chief actuarial analyst and acting manager of the Technical Provisions Division.

Join us in Riyadh on 1-2 September for two days of professional development and an opportunity to expand your network in the region.

SECURE YOUR TICKET

Use the code to book your place

FIND THEM ALL

Use the code to read the new ‘think’ piece, and others in the series

RESEARCH

CLIMATE RISK THEMATIC REVIEW: LAST CHANCE TO CONTRIBUTE

The IFoA’s thematic review on climate and sustainability risks is closing soon. The call is out for actuaries and organisations to share how they are tackling the complex and evolving challenges posed by climate and sustainability risks. Your insights will shape best practices and inform future industry standards. The deadline for responding is 11 July.

TAKE PART

Use the code, or email reviews@ actuaries.org.uk

CONSULTATION

APS X2 UPDATES AND GUIDANCE

Take part in our consultation on minor amendments to Actuarial Professional Standard (APS) X2 and its existing associated guidance. We are seeking feedback on minor amendments to APS X2, including updates to reﬂect the new IFoA Disciplinary Scheme and further feedback on the existing supporting guidance and case studies.

A review of APS X2, including a member survey in 2024, highlighted a desire for enhanced guidance and additional case studies. The consultation will run for 13 weeks from 16 June 2025.

HAVE YOUR SAY

Use the code to give your comments

‘The annual report is a valuable opportunity to check on our progress’

IF O A CEO PAUL LEWIS ON HIS LATEST FOCUS POINTS

The IFoA annual report for 2024/2025 is now available. This presents a valuable opportunity to look back over the corporate year and check on our progress. Here are just a few of this year’s many key achievements.

1 Chartered Actuary

The Chartered Actuary designation, launched in November, is available to all our qualiﬁed members. It emphasises the distinction offered by IFoA actuarial qualiﬁcations, helps to protect our profession and ensures employers and organisations continue to afford it the value it deserves. It also offers reassurance that actuaries work to a high and exacting set of standards. More than 4,000 members have already adopted chartered status.

More events on the calendar

We have extended our landmark conference schedule to foster even greater collaboration, knowledge sharing and networking opportunities. In addition to the regular Life, GIRO and Asia conferences, the IFoA held inaugural conferences in the Middle East and India. All these conferences are on the schedule again this year, so do check our website for details.

Thought-leadership series on AI

Exploring AI’s increasing impact on actuaries and their work, this four-part series was our most popular Thought Leadership series to date, attracting more than 1,100 attendees. It drew on expertise from policy, science, academia and ﬁnancial services to demystify AI and its growing role in society.

Student engagement

In December, we launched a new area on the web forum ‘IFoA Communities’ speciﬁcally for student members, designed to help those training to feel informed, supported and part of the wider profession.

The Actuary magazine refresh

Last but not least, to keep up to date with publishing trends, we evolved the look and feel of this magazine and incorporated more digital content into our offering, including podcasts and videos. Find them on therevamped website: theactuary.com

READ THE REPORT

Use the code to go to the annual report. And please do contact me to share your thoughts: email ceo@actuaries.org.uk

DISCIPLINARY HEARINGS

TRIBUNAL PANEL

MR NICHOLAS HUDSON

On 15 April 2025 the Disciplinary Tribunal Panel considered a charge of misconduct against Mr Hudson (the respondent). It found that between July 2020 and July 2021, the respondent posted a number of offensive tweets on Twitter (now known as X); his actions were in breach of the Integrity and Communication principles in the Actuaries’ Code (version 3.0) and constituted misconduct. It determined that the most appropriate and proportionate sanction was a reprimand and a ﬁne of £2,000.

TRIBUNAL PANEL

MR PATRICK LEE

On 26 March 2024, the Disciplinary Tribunal Panel considered a charge of misconduct against Mr Lee (the respondent). It found the factual elements of the charge proved: that between 20 March and 29 August 2020 the respondent posted tweets and retweets on Twitter (now known as X) regarding the Islamic religion using language that was offensive, inflammatory and designed to demean or insult. This was found to be in breach of the Integrity principle of the Actuaries’ Code (version 3.0) and constituted misconduct. The panel determined that the most appropriate and proportionate sanction was a reprimand and expulsion from IFoA membership. The respondent may not apply for readmission for a period of two years.

The respondent appealed this determination; the Appeals Tribunal Panel on 3 December 2024 and 22 April 2025 found an error of law in the reasons given by the Disciplinary Tribunal Panel and varied the determination. The Disciplinary Tribunal Panel’s sanction remains in force.

SEE THE FULL FINDINGS

Use the code to go to the full published determinations

YOUR PERSPECTIVE IS INVALUABLE

The IFoA’s member surveys help to put the views of the membership at the heart of what the IFoA does, day in, day out. Member Perspectives, which launched last year, is an evolution of the past annual member surveys. The programme sees members surveyed in waves throughout the year, with each member being randomly assigned to one wave. Here, we present the results of the two waves that comprise our Member Perspectives programme for the year 2024/25. To ensure robust data, only those who completed the survey questions are factored in.

BEING AN ACTUARY

85 % feel that their professional future as an actuary is secure

70 % said they’d recommend the profession as a career

62 %

“love” being an actuary

2,424 OF YOU COMPLETED THE SURVEY (that’s 6.7% of the overall membership; for the 2023 annual survey, it was 6.5%) of qualified members are proud to be a member of the IFoA 70%

TO-DO LIST: DON’T FORGET TO

SATISFACTION WITH THE IF O A 56% 59% 51%

OVERALL

QUALIFIED MEMBERS

STUDENT MEMBERS

We hear and understand the message from members. We fully acknowledge that the candidate experience leading up to the April session was not one to be expected from the IFoA. Our focus now is on providing clarity, stability and continuity for the September session and beyond, while ensuring a secure examination session.

VOLUNTEERS’ SATISFACTION

Satisfaction with volunteering is up 5 points to 73%, from 68% last year

PROFESSIONAL LEARNING THE ACTUARY

Your response to the bigger bimonthly magazine, refreshed website and new series of podcasts and videos, launched last September

75% 68% 67% 55%

59 % of you want to learn more about AI and machine learning

We ran a symposium on this earlier this year and launched the free resource ‘An Introduction to AI for Actuaries’ on the Virtual Learning Environment. More is planned…

Positive about the new off ering

Think the podcasts and videos are a good idea Like the new look and feel Of students are more likely to engage with the new format

READ THE ANNUAL REPORT

Find out about the work of the IFoA over the past year in this summary

53% of you are using online videos to learn about AI topics

NOMINATE A VOLUNTEER

Put forward someone you know for the IFoA’s new Volunteer Awards

We’ve created an exclusive resource on this subject, due to launch on the Virtual Learning Environment later this year

55% of students want to learn about coding in R 83% of you who regularly att end IFoA webinars are satisfi ed with them

DON'T FORGET TO RENEW

Secure your membership for the coming year

MEMBERS’ VIEWS AND THOUGHT-PROVOKING PIECES

ARE WE REALLY LIVING IN ‘UNCERTAIN TIMES’?

“WE FACE MORE UNPRECEDENTED RISKS”

Geopolitical instability has crystallised into a persistent, systemic risk in our global society. The uncertainty lies not in the emergence of this risk, but in the magnitude and reach of its effects. This means adapting to a new normal where volatility is constant, unknown and can change rapidly.

From the Ukraine-Russia and Israel-Hamas conﬂicts to tensions in the Asian subcontinent and South China Sea, geopolitical instability is no longer a background risk but a force that is reshaping systems and societies. Actuaries must manage the tangible ﬁnancial fallout without becoming detached from the intangible human cost.

According to the World Economic Forum’s 2025 Global Risks Report, state-based armed conﬂict is the most likely source of global disruption this year. Political violence, sanctions and trade disruption drive up claim frequency and severity, and introduce volatility into underwriting assumptions. Political risk insurance and war

premiums for marine insurance are a necessity. Meanwhile, supply chain fragility and inﬂationary pressures have redeﬁned general insurance and pensions models.

As Allianz Commercial recently reported, “civil unrest, strikes and riots are the top worry for 51% of businesses”; in some regions, losses rival those arising from nat cats. These events are not easily modelled using historical data, challenging traditional risk assumptions and requiring more dynamic, scenariobased approaches.

Instability takes an emotional toll. Forced migration, economic insecurity and the threat of conﬂict erode mental health and social cohesion. In health and life, this means more claims relating to anxiety and trauma. The longterm effects are reshaping morbidity trends.

These emotional effects feed back into ﬁnancial systems. Consumer conﬁdence wanes, savings behaviour shifts, and political polarisation introduces regulatory unpredictability. These changes introduce new variables into models, challenging assumptions about lapse rates, longevity and risk pooling. We don’t just face more risks – we face more interconnected, nonlinear and unprecedented risks. Recognising that is essential to building resilience.

AMBREEN SHAREEF is group head of validation at Admiral Insurance

“WE ARE MORE AWARE OF UNCERTAINTY”

Uncertainty (or ‘unquantiﬁed unknowns’ – distinct from risk, or ‘quantiﬁed unknowns’) is not new. History is marked by unpredictable periods, from the First and Second World Wars to the Great Depression. Each era faced unique challenges, and uncertainty was a companion to those living through them relative to their prior experience. What distinguishes the present is not the level of uncertainty but our increased awareness and understanding of it. We know more than in the past – for example, higher numbers of chronic disease diagnoses may not mean that the risk has increased but that we can better identify diseases. Technological advances, including digital media, have transformed the way in which we encounter and process uncertainty. Rolling news and social media amplify everything. Misinformation can increase perceived risk, even when actual risk parameters are unchanged or, in some cases, better understood and managed.

I work in emerging markets while being exposed to more advanced techniques thanks to my IFoA roles and interactions with colleagues operating in more developed jurisdictions. Thanks to this, I have seen that the reaction to global warming risk is different in the Global North than in the Global South. Similarly, the reaction to regional conﬂicts differs depending on where you live (speciﬁcally, whether you have been exposed to that risk before, and your awareness of its likely effect or severity).

Risk modelling and data analytics advances, when correctly applied, allow us to anticipate and mitigate risks with unprecedented perceived precision and complexity. At a recent IFoA risk management conference, we saw that while risks such as climate change or geopolitical tensions persist, they are countered by evolving frameworks of resilience and adaptation. Actuaries have a crucial role in helping organisations to “keep calm and carry on”. Uncertainty looms large but this may not indicate a more uncertain world. Instead, it highlights our interconnectedness and collective awareness –inviting us to approach uncertainty not with trepidation but with informed, proactive risk management frameworks.

MUKAMI NJERU is an IFoA council member and IFoA Risk Management Practice Board member, currently serving at ZEP-RE (the reinsurer for the COMESA region)

EXPERT VIEWS FROM ACROSS THE PROFESSION T HE PR O FE SS I ON

Irecently attended an ‘unconference’.

Rather than absorbing content from experts, participants shape the agenda, pitch topics and work together to solve problems. I left feeling more engaged than I have at a professional event in years. I used to be good at sitting through presentations, reading long documents and absorbing detail. Now I ﬁnd it harder to focus. Maybe it’s age and life distractions, but I suspect it’s also an environment shift – we are conditioned to the pace and interruptions of digital life.

This matters: actuaries don’t just crunch numbers, we also explain, inﬂuence and collaborate. Whether we’re presenting results, facilitating workshops or navigating uncertainty, how we communicate is as important as what we say.

The one-way ﬂow of information – from expert to audience – is outdated. Many people learn through interaction, problemsolving, storytelling or visuals. Attention spans are shorter and the demand for relevance and clarity is higher. Technology has raised expectations for speed; we’re expected to absorb more and decide faster. Communication

“The one-way flow of information — from expert to audience — is outdated”

must work harder to cut through, and how we learn and share knowledge has to keep up.

A 50-page report will tick the compliance box but may not land. Can you use a visual summary instead?

Can you start with the important questions and invite discussion, rather than launching into detail?

Can you deliver insights in shorter bursts over time?

When preparing material for boards, think about how they consume information and what they need to know. A validation report might lead with questions such as “Where do we deviate from market practice, and is that appropriate?” rather than “How many tests have we failed?” It’s about aligning with their perspective and helping them make sense of the uncertainty for which they’re accountable.

Actuaries pride ourselves on rigour and depth – but we should be curious about how people learn. If the goal is to make better decisions to protect customers and businesses, then how we share information is as important as our models.

Maybe it’s time to ‘unlearn’ some habits – and shift from talking at people to connecting with them.

“I love earth system scientists but risk management is not their skillset”

The biosphere is our life support system, providing food, water, oxygen and the raw materials for our society and economy. I’ve watched enough sci-ﬁ to know that messing with a life support system rarely ends well.

The framing for ‘planetary solvency’ – the concept laid out in the IFoA’s recent climate change report – is simple: we need to look after nature because it’s where we live. Consider pension schemes: we’re not just concerned about paying pensions this month, we must also plan to maintain solvency decades into the future so that the last pension can be paid.

If nature is the asset, can we use actuarial techniques to manage our global ‘balance sheet’ so we continue to receive ‘payments’ (food, water, air)? Think of it as a perpetual life annuity –a new product for our profession, urgently needed for civilisation. Win-win!

But who is our client, our earth system chief actuary, our CFO and board?

First up, ministries of ﬁnance (MoFs). Even my 11-year-old knows that allocating capital today to the destruction of future capital is not a good idea. Global risk management is

blind to systemic risk because no one is communicating it to MoFs. I love earth system scientists but risk management is not their skillset. Scientiﬁc reticence and consensus mean their reports deal in averages and lose detail on tail risks – the risks to which we should manage planetary solvency. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change’s 2023 synthesis report does not say “climate change is a threat to human well-being and planetary health” until page 24. This is like a doctor’s letter putting the cancer diagnosis on page 5. This is where actuaries come in. Here is our to-do list, with the co-beneﬁts of maintaining a liveable biosphere and creating a new, ongoing, meaningful product suite:

Develop principles for a planetary solvency framework, leveraging actuarial risk and solvency management techniques (done)

Implement globally to communicate realistic climate change and nature-driven risks to policymakers (to do) Develop urgent and appropriate policy responses to enable a prosperous future (to do) Who’s in?

SANDY TRUST works in ﬁnancial services on climate change and sustainability

CAT DRUMMOND is a partner in LCP’s Insurance Consulting practice and chair of the IFoA General Insurance Board

SUSTAINABILITY

CAREERS

Arunning joke in Friends is that no one knows what Chandler Bing does for a living. Even his closest friends are stumped. ‘Statistical analysis and data reconﬁguration’ is the closest we get to knowing his job title. But what if the joke is on us? What if Chandler Bing is... an actuary?

Let’s look at the evidence. First, Chandler never explains his job – classic actuary behaviour. Have you ever tried telling someone at a party what you do? Is their reaction positive when you say, “I calculate when people die” or, for our general insurance friends, “I work out the risk of car crashes”?

Chandler avoids the pitfalls of these conversations by keeping it vague.

Second, Chandler is analytical, risk averse and ﬁnancially literate – the holy trinity of actuarial traits. He is the only member of the group who seems to understand how rent works. When offered $7,000 to quit smoking, he accepts immediately. That’s not just willpower, that’s utility theory in action. He is detail oriented and intelligent, often catching things that others miss. Like

an actuary spotting a mispriced premium in a sea of data, Chandler notices the little things.

Risk flows through Chandler like a river through a canyon: shaped by time, carved by logic. When he and Rachel eat a cheesecake off the hallway floor, he insists on using forks to skim off only the cake that has not been in contact with the carpet. Hygiene risk? Assessed and addressed. Chandler frequently tries to talk Ross out of impulsive romantic decisions, advising him not to say the wrong name at the altar. He is a human early-warning system for bad choices – perhaps another way of saying CERA-qualified.

Of course, the show never explicitly says that he’s an actuary. But let’s be honest: if Chandler were a data scientist, he’d never stop talking about it. He would no doubt have an immaterial following on Substack and a side project building neural nets to predict Ross’s next divorce. Instead, he is quietly calculating risk, cracking jokes and keeping Joey ﬁnancially aﬂoat.

Chandler Bing: the actuary we didn’t know we had but thoroughly deserve.

“Chandler is analytical, risk averse and financially literate: the holy trinity of actuarial traits”

“Margolin finds the Heisenberg uncertainty principle itself inherently uncertain”

Muhammad Amjad’s piece ‘Mass appeal’ (The Actuary, May/ June 2025), on quantum computing and actuarial science, reminded me of a 1980 paper in the Transactions of the Society of Actuaries

Myron Margolin’s ‘The Quantum Interpretation of Probability’ may be the ﬁrst attempt to link quantum mechanics with actuarial science. It was not without controversy: a colleague told me that the Society of Actuaries rejected it at ﬁrst, while the North American profession’s reaction was polite but negative.

It is philosophical rather than practical, trying to ﬁnd an alternative interpretation to the frequentist or Bayesian interpretations of probability. Margolin ﬁnds these interpretations circular, and has problems with “time inhomogeneity” (non-stationary data). In his view, some quantum mechanics principles can be applied to probability measurement to obtain a better understanding.

Principally, he ﬁnds that the Heisenberg uncertainty principle (that simultaneous measurement of conjugate

properties, for example the momentum and location of a photon, is impossible) is itself inherently uncertain. This is similar to the attempt to measure probability and the ‘mass’ of data to an arbitrary degree of certainty: the greater the mass, the lower the uncertainty in measuring probability and vice versa. He was criticised for his misunderstanding of quantum mechanics, incorrect statements and lack of analogy between probability measurement and the volume of data and quantum uncertainty. In fact, he merely reﬂects the stochastic nature of the measurement process, and his comparison with quantum mechanics is weak. A further critique is his “time inhomogeneity” concern. While this is real, there has been much work on autoregressive methods to avoid data contamination caused by trends or other imperfections, weakening his argument.

However, reviewers agreed with Margolin’s hope that the paper would stimulate further thought on the nature of risk processes.

ED LOVELOCK isstudent editor of The Actuary

MICHAEL COHEN is an international actuarial consultant in insurance, pensions and ﬁnancial regulation

M I C HAEL CO HEN is an international actuarial consultant in and ﬁnancial

“THE MORE PEOPLE YOU MEET, THE MORE YOU SEE THEIR CONCERNS. AND THEY MIGHT ALERT YOU TO THINGS YOU CAN DO TO HELP THEM”

Good global relationships are at the heart of the IFoA. They’re also key to the approach of its new president, Paul Sweeting, who is based in the Middle East

ALEX MARTIN SAMI KHATIB

ooking at the man in the video call on my computer screen, I’m acutely aware of his short sleeves and the sun streaming in behind him. Paul Sweeting is in his Dubai home, where the weather is 34ºC and there isn’t a cloud in the sky. I’m in the grey UK.

Sweeting moved from the UK to Riyadh, Saudi Arabia seven years ago for work but is now living in Dubai in the neighbouring UAE – and makes a convincing case for working in the region. In his time in the Middle East, he has seen a vast amount of societal change and describes a vibrance and energy that make Saudi Arabia seem like an exciting place in which to be an actuary these days. For example, he notes, about speaking to Saudi actuarial science students: “One of the things I am consistently struck by is how the majority are women.”

While I sometimes question my life choices, I’m pretty sure that Sweeting doesn’t. Through his career, he has held C-suite positions, been an actuarial professor and written a textbook for actuarial exams; soon he will be the president of the IFoA.

With so many accomplishments under his belt, I was bracing for someone with a ﬁerce intelligence, a determined demeanour and strong views. However, while Sweeting is probably the smartest person in any room, and there is no doubt that he can get things done, what struck me most during our hour together was his approachability, warmth and curiosity.

When asked what he will be like as a president, and what his agenda might be, Sweeting responds: “While I might get to set the agenda for council meetings, it would ultimately be one voice against 30 other members of the council – so even if I did want to force an agenda item through, it isn’t going

to happen.” When he stood for the IFoA’s top job, he says, he made it clear that he views the role as “facilitatory and ambassadorial”.

Other skills will have played a signiﬁcant part in his appointment, too. Alongside being a well-known and well-respected Fellow, Sweeting has a background in governance and education – two areas that are very much in the spotlight for the IFoA. He has also worked across a range of practice areas and geographies.

How will it work, being president of a UK-headquartered organisation while living in the Middle East? “While most of our Fellows are in the UK, most of our students are outside of it,” he notes. “We have an awful lot of students in Asia, Africa and the Middle East, and I’m closer geographically to them here than I would be in London – but London isn’t that far from here, either.”

Working outside the UK gives him a useful perspective on the IFoA’s role as an international entity. We speak about its educational aspect and how the syllabus has changed to reduce the amount of UK-speciﬁc requirements and teach more globally applicable techniques. Exam questions are now tested to make sure they are appropriate to all geographies – for example a question referring to a Post Oﬃce savings account might work well for UK students but poorly for those in other countries.

“It isn’t just about making exams work in other countries, though –it is about ensuring students based overseas have the backing they need to get through those exams,” says Sweeting. “We have a responsibility to ensure they have the support they need to see them through their education and their careers.”

The future of exams

Given the education subject, I plucked up the nerve to ask about the issues around the April exam sitting. “For the vast majority of students the exams went very well, especially given the position we were in just beforehand,” Sweeting notes.

His practical knowledge of education is evident as we discuss the next exam

Use the code to visit the theactuary.com, where you can ﬁnd our previous interview with Paul Sweeting and all our podcasts – he will be appearing in one soon…

PAUL SWEETING

Current job

He has worked for Hassana Investment Company in Riyadh since 2018, previously as CRO and now as senior adviser

Previous work

He has held roles in many companies in the UK, including Legal & General, JP Morgan, Munich Re, Fidelity, PwC and Rothschild. He started his career at Barnett Waddingham in 1992

University teaching

In 2009, he left corporate life to become a professor at the University of Kent’s actuarial science department. In 2018, he decided to return to commercial work (in Riyadh) and he was then made an honorary professor

Board roles

He is a board member and board risk committee chair at insurance company Tawuniya in Riyadh

Public sector

He was seconded for 16 months to the Saudi government body GOSI (General Organization for Social Insurance) in Riyadh in 2022, as governor assistant for ﬁnancial sustainability and risk management

IFoA volunteering

He has served two stints on IFoA council, 2010-2012 and 2017-2020

Charity work

He was chair of the Staple Inn Actuarial Society from 2016-2018

MORE ON PAUL

ABOUT…

IFO A STRUCTURE

President: The president chairs council meetings, represents council’s voice at board meetings and is the IFoA’s primary global ambassador. They are elected by the council for a two-year term (previously one year).

Executive: The people responsible for the day-to-day delivery of the strategy set by the board. It’s led by ﬁve directors (non-actuaries) who have experience of running membership organisations, headed by the IFoA’s CEO.

Board: Made up of four member-NEDs, three independent NEDs, the board chair, IFoA president and IFoA CEO, the board has been in place for about a year. It is responsible for setting the strategy in line with council’s vision and for operational management of IFoA business.

Council: A group of 30 actuary volunteers whose role is to govern the IFoA’s affairs. It sets the vision and delegates overall leadership of the IFoA to the board. It represents the views of the members and is elected by the membership. Use the code to vote in this year’s council elections (until 8 July)

Qualiﬁcations

Besides being an FIA, he is a Fellow of the Chartered Institute for Securities & Investment. He is also a Chartered Enterprise Risk Actuary and a Chartered Financial Analyst

Academic author

In 2011 he wrote the SP9 textbook Financial Enterprise Risk Management, updated in 2017

Fiction writing

He has written a crime thriller, Figures of Death ( 2016), and a children’s book, The Spaceboy Who Was Scared of Heights (2017)

YouTube channel

His YouTube channel showcases his enthusiasm for copulas – use the code to ﬁnd it

session. “The Board and education committee now need to decide on not just the next session but also the future of how we assess whether someone has the skills to be an actuary,” he says. “And it’s a tricky one. There are a range of different assessment techniques now available and we need to ensure we aren’t disadvantaging any of our students by selecting one over the other.”

Risk, respect and relationships

This leads to even bigger questions about what it means to be an actuary and what the IFoA is training people to do. “I’d say an actuary is someone who understands risk – but I mean really understands risk,” Sweeting comments. Considering the global landscape, I ask about the risk we all face through macroeconomic trends and the seemingly large amount of geopolitical risk with which members are dealing in their work. “When I ﬁrst started at Barnett Waddingham in 1992, it was just

a few days after Black Wednesday, when the UK was forced to withdraw from the European Exchange Rate Mechanism,” he recalls. “The government raised the base rate as high as 12% (compared with the current base rate of 4.25%).” He remembers working through the dot.com crash of 1999 and the 2008 ﬁnancial crisis, too. “Having a large amount of uncertainty is not uncommon but you have to try and look through it, particularly for long-term investors.”

He believes that technological improvements, rather than macroeconomic impacts, will have the longest-term effect on the actuarial role. “AI is large and growing, and is going to have a profound impact on the work that we do as actuaries. But there are dangers with things like machine learning, especially in understanding the mathematics and modelling that sit behind them. However, actuaries should be very well placed to deal with this, given we are typically very good at understanding complex models.”

What has Sweeting learnt throughout his career that can help us to tackle new uncertainties such as AI and sustainability (which certainly weren’t in the syllabus when many of us sat our exams)? His answer isn’t anything technical, or even anything educational: “Treat people well and with respect.”

He is passionate about the role the IFoA has played in supporting him throughout his working life, from writing research as part of practice area working groups to meeting people in regional societies. “The more people you meet, the more you’ll see what concerns they have,” he says. “And they might alert you to the kinds of things that you could do to help them.”

Sweeting also talks about the value of curiosity, the desire to learn new and interesting material, and trying a wide variety of things – but he always comes back to relationships. Certainly, he has formed a strong and positive one with this editor, and I look forward to reading his columns as president in our magazine over the next two years.

A LONG LOOK AT THE KEY TOPICS, ACROSS ALL ACTUARIAL

SECTORS

IN FOCUS

THE SPACE BETWEEN US

SPECIAL REPORT

Rocky times: in a world of increasingly tricky risk, the insurance gap is growing. Actuaries need to innovate to ﬂex and ﬁll it

MELANIE GROISNE GETTY, ISTOCK

ife is becoming more and more interconnected. Risks such as geopolitical instability and climate change continue to escalate on the world stage. With risk dependencies and risk drivers evolving quickly, it can be hard to keep up.

Yet capital modelling techniques have barely changed, despite the pressure to understand this more complex situation. Current models are unreliable, under-used and time consuming. What the insurance industry needs are dynamic tools, built for cross-business and cross-functional collaboration. Capital models have a clear advantage over long-term projections because they are reassessed at least every year and therefore reﬂect the latest changes in risk drivers. This is a particular advantage when it comes to climate risk, reducing model uncertainty.

Climate and the insurance gap

It is worth highlighting the different metrics involved in climate losses. Total, or ground-up, losses consider the catastrophe’s total cost; insured losses consider the insured value for which insurers are liable. The difference between the two is the ‘insurance gap’.

As we experience a greater number and intensity of natural catastrophes, this gap may grow. While total losses could rise, insured costs could fall because of factors such as increased climate mitigation measures (for example, flood and fire defences), or insurers stopping writing lower tranches or pulling out of regions altogether (as seen after January’s Los Angeles wildfires). How the insurance industry tackles the insurance gap issue will affect the level of climate losses that insurers will see coming through.

Unﬁt for purpose

Insurers frequently adopt a bottom-up, granular approach. The wider aspect and interconnectedness of global events is generally considered to some extent when calibrating

dependencies, but this requires tedious monitoring and updating of parameters that are extremely diﬃcult to estimate. Traditional approaches also tend to give considerable weight to past data – not necessarily the best basis on which to form an opinion on fast-evolving risks.

Cyber is a good example of such a risk. Data remains too sparse for robust modelling and cyber attacks continue to rise in volume and severity, with new defences constantly being designed and built to try to keep pace. Furthermore, insurers need to ask themselves whether the dependency of cyber risk with other global risks, such as climate change and geopolitical conﬂicts and terrorism, is appropriately reﬂected in their current models.

More generally, chief risk oﬃcers and other senior stakeholders responsible for the capital model should be asking their teams:

Can they rely on their capital model’s output? Is this complex risk landscape reasonably reﬂected in a transparent, dynamic way to enable challenge and communication?

Can they conﬁrm that the view of risk implemented in their capital model is consistent with that established in other parts of the business (such as pricing and exposure management)?

Are the traditional approaches they are using providing any added value, given the extensive work required for parameterisation?

How much compounded uncertainty –stemming from limitations and uncertainty at granular risk levels, which are then aggregated –is too much? Does this make model outputs unreliable and useless?

Identifying risks and drivers

Traditionally, companies’ risk assessments have focused on their own risks, with little consideration given to global socio-economic factors. The past few years have shown that this is no longer suitable, and that risks should be assessed more holistically.

The changing dynamic of the risk landscape does not necessarily translate into a new, distinct risk category but often results in additional losses that simultaneously affect several risk components, reﬂecting a new, more complex risk proﬁle. It is important to map all the risks that affect the company, and their drivers, before trying to model this complex risk environment.

Short-term modelling for long-term risks

Modelling long-term risks over a short timehorizon can seem challenging. Climate change risks (typically comprising physical, transition and liability risks) are not only long

“THE CHANGING RISK LANDSCAPE

OFTEN

RESULTS IN ADDITIONAL LOSSES THAT SIMULTANEOUSLY AFFECT SEVERAL RISK COMPONENTS, REFLECTING A NEW, MORE COMPLEX RISK PROFILE”

term but also highly uncertain in terms of how they will develop.

Climate change risks are also affected by geopolitical instability, supply chain issues and inflation, as well as national government policies and the emerging threats and benefits of AI. Therefore, it is not the isolated, long-term effects of climate change that we should be focusing on for capital modelling purposes, but its combined short-term effects with other risks. And short-term modelling undeniably provides more flexibility.

The evolution of physical risks from climate change is already baked in for decades; our actions now won’t affect catastrophes in the short term. The year-on-year effect on physical risks (arising from long-ago human activity) remains limited, although trends are emerging when we look at the past decade. ‘Secondary catastrophe risks’ are a good example: they have become key catastrophe risks, as shown by recent ﬂood and severe convective storm losses.

However, current catastrophe models remain suitable as long as they are regularly reassessed to conﬁrm that they capture all plausible scenarios, applying in-model and out-of-model adjustments to ensure this.

Quick change, slow judgments

All the above needs to be considered alongside an evolving insurance gap and other global socio-economic variables. These can change relatively quickly and are diﬃcult to capture in long-term scenarios, although less challenging over the next year or so.

Liability risks are diﬃcult to model, as there is incredibly high uncertainty around whether, when and to what extent climate litigation claims will emerge. However, it is important to distinguish between estimated average losses over the next 12 months, maximum losses (which, according to contracts’ terms and conditions, will also contain important exclusions such as criminal and personal proﬁt-driven behaviours) and the uncertainty around average losses.

Given the slow pace of court judgments and the money that large companies can spend on defence lawyers, it seems unlikely that we will see an unsustainable level of losses emerging very quickly. Therefore, it is reasonable to assume that yearly reassessed allowances in the capital model for ‘known unknowns’ would be suﬃcient to absorb losses that have emerged over the year beyond the estimated average losses. However, liability risks are also affected by other global socio-economic factors.

A holistic view

As highlighted in the Bank of England’s Report on climate-related risks and the regulatory capital frameworks, climate risks require a forwardlooking approach, as past data will not appropriately reﬂect future trends and effects. Although scenarios are already used to validate models, their use as a calibration approach remains limited, as it requires moving away from traditional models and taking more innovative approaches.

A natural answer to this would be to consider a ‘catalogue’ of scenarios that provides a good representation of plausible events, with each scenario disaggregated into its risk drivers (similar to the way in which event catalogues are constructed in catastrophe models).

At WTW, we have been working on an approach in which current dependency models can be expressed in terms of explicit, dynamic and possibly systemic risk drivers, which would model the combined effects of climate risks and other global risks in a transparent, holistic way. Each risk would be disaggregated into its (systemic) risk drivers, with a variable that is speciﬁc to this risk representing the non-systemic aspect. Risks or portfolios can then be combined and aggregated using relatively simple mathematical formulae and distributions.

This approach could be extended to all the risks to which the company is exposed, as well as to the ultimate time horizon basis, in which case Monte Carlo simulations and their inherent uncertainties would not even be required. This would also help to transition from discrete time or single timestep models to a continuous time setting for ‘alwaysup-to-date’ risk analysis. The major advantage of a continuous time model is that coverages are only modelled between their exact start and end dates.

This would turn a time-consuming, under-used model, hindered by compounded uncertainty, into a dynamic risk, pricing and portfolio management tool. It would also replace onerous, isolated parameter guesstimation with a cross-business functions collaboration that provides a consistent view of risk across the business with less effort.

MELANIE GROISNE is a director and risk consulting actuary at WTW

Climate’s impact on the global gap

A burgeoning market for risk-spreading that has hit record levels this year

CATASTROPHE BONDS

ne of the biggest challenges faced by anyone exposed to uncertainty is how to manage exposures to peak risks.

For (re)insurers, the most prominent risks typically come in the form of natural catastrophes (nat cats) such as hurricanes and earthquakes, which can cause incredibly high losses that may be diﬃcult to absorb. Swiss Re Institute has estimated that there’s a one in 10 chance that global nat cat insured losses will reach at least $300bn for 2025; it was $137bn in 2024.

Capacity for catastrophe

Catastrophe (cat) bonds are part of the solution to this problem. They complement traditional reinsurance, having demonstrated their ability to provide signiﬁcant capacity for peak perils in particular. These ﬁxed-income instruments transfer risk to capital markets, spreading it out to diverse pools of investors rather than keeping it on any single institution’s balance sheet. The market has now grown to more than $50bn of risk-transfer capacity, following a number of years of record issuance.

For the sponsor (or cedant), cat bond structures broadly function like multi-year (re)insurance contracts, collateralised by investors’ capital. For the investor, they function like ﬂoating rate notes, with collateral income (such as US Treasury money market yield) and a risk spread comprising the overall coupon payments. The risk spread is essentially based

on the likelihood of a predeﬁned event causing a loss, and ﬂuctuates with the supply and demand of capital for risk-transfer capacity.

The appeal is clear and intuitive: while sponsors are able to reduce their exposure to peak risks, investors access a source of returns with minimal correlation to other ﬁnancial markets (since a fall in equity valuations doesn’t cause a hurricane).

What they cover

Most cat bond issuance is linked to nat cats, in particular US hurricanes and earthquakes, where capital requirements in the (re)insurance industry are highest. ‘Secondary perils’, which historically generated small to mid-sized losses, make up a lesser part of the market; they are also harder to model and can therefore be less readily acceptable to some investors, although a number of recent issuances have provided coverage for California wildﬁre.

The cat bond market is known for its innovation and, while it is dominated by peak US perils, there is also a small but growing demand for cat bonds covering cyber, terrorism and extreme morbidity events, among other things. And they are not just used by (re)insurers – recently, corporates have also leveraged the market. Since 2020, more than $3.1bn notional has been placed across 18 transactions, protecting sponsors ranging from real-estate funds to technology giants.

As part of a broader disaster risk management framework, and as one of a spectrum of ﬁnancial instruments, various governments

STORMING THE MARKET

The ﬁrst catastrophe bonds were issued in the 1990s, prompted by market changes following the enormous losses associated with storms such as Hurricane Andrew, which hit the Bahamas, Florida and Louisiana in 1992.

The market typically grows after large events, such as Hurricane Katrina in 2005 and Hurricanes Harvey, Irma and Maria in 2017, when sources of traditional risk transfer in (re)insurance markets are constrained.

ANDY PALMER ISTOCK

“SPONSORS REDUCE THEIR EXPOSURE TO PEAK RISKS, AND INVESTORS ACCESS A SOURCE OF RETURNS WITH MINIMAL CORRELATION TO OTHER

FINANCIAL MARKETS”

have transferred a portion of risk to the capital markets through a cat bond. In March 2023, the Chilean government secured earthquake insurance coverage by issuing a $350m cat bond (complemented by the simultaneous placement of $280m catastrophe-linked derivates).

How they work

In a cat bond, a bespoke trigger is deﬁned to determine how much loss is payable after a speciﬁc event and tailored to the situation at hand. An insurance company that is looking to cede extreme losses to its own insurance portfolio will typically use an indemnity trigger that pays out based on actual claims payments by the sponsor. Conversely, a parametric trigger that pays out based on the physical parameters of an event exceeding a certain level (such as moment magnitude for earthquakes) might be suitable for a government that requires a rapid payout postevent to help manage a large natural disaster that is affecting its population. Other transactions may use an industry index that estimates the overall loss across the entire insurance market.

In all of these use cases, cat bonds play a major role in reducing the insurance gap, providing additional risk capacity for the market through a range of entry points.

Driven largely by the rapid development of urban areas (often in risk-exposed coastal locations), rising property values and other inﬂationary factors, insurance companies’ total insured values have gone up, increasing the demand for risk transfer. The cat bond market segment has grown by about 10% a year over the past ﬁve years. In light of this, sponsors have relied on cat bonds and other insurance-linked securities as a source of capital to support their greater exposures. With a record level of issuance so far in 2025, including the largest cat bond ever (in excess of $1.5bn), the trend is expected to continue.

GROWING NEED

Inclusive insurance products have a vital role in a warming world, and there’s plenty of scope for more

limate change is becoming a reality, particularly for those living in the Global South. While we are yet to understand the full implications of a warming planet, we are already facing increased risks, such as from extreme heat, air pollution and the unpredictability of climate-sensitive infectious diseases like dengue fever and malaria.

The impacts of these risks are serious, affecting multiple domains, including global health, livelihoods, and food and water security, with many intercorrelations.

The World Health Organization describes climate change as the greatest threat to humanity. Heat stress can lead to serious health issues such as heat exhaustion, heatstroke, miscarriage and chronic diseases that affect the cardiovascular and respiratory systems. Severe air pollution also has a long list of potential consequences, including stroke, heart disease, asthma, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease and lung cancer. Furthermore, climate change undermines many of the social

LISA MORGAN GETTY

ANDY PALMER is head of insurancelinked securities structuring, EMEA & APAC at Swiss Re

“PRICING

PARAMETRIC INSURANCE

INVOLVES

USING A GROWING BODY OF CLIMATE DATA — WITH WHICH ACTUARIES COULD DO MORE”

determinants for good health – the conditions in which people are born, grow, live and work.

The International Labour Organization estimates that at least 71% of the world’s working population is exposed to excessive heat, resulting in around 23m injuries and 19,000 deaths a year. It affects not just outdoor workers but also those in stuffy, unventilated factories and oﬃces. It is anticipated that by 2030, the global productivity losses from heat stress will be equivalent to a loss of 80m jobs.

Adaptation is key. Inclusive insurance, which is insurance for underserved or unserved populations, should be part of the resilience

agenda. Inclusive insurers are coming to the table with new innovations that can help targeted populations adapt to climate risks, at least in the short term. Some recent examples include:

Heat insurance – this parametric insurance solution pays out after a certain number of heatwave days, incentivising workers to stay at home. Insurance as a tool for behaviour change should not be overlooked – avoiding exposure to heat stress is prevention. The article ‘Paid for shade’ (The Actuary, Nov/Dec 2024) describes a pilot heat insurance scheme in India, targeting low-income women who work in vulnerable conditions, such as waste pickers.

Air pollution insurance – like heat insurance, the concept is that if the air quality index (AQI) reaches certain levels, a payout will be triggered.

In February, Indian insurers Go Digit General Insurance and KM Dastur introduced the country’s ﬁrst AQI-based parametric insurance policy, protecting 6,200 migrant construction workers in Delhi from wage loss due to air pollution-related construction bans. Claim payouts are automatically triggered if the daily AQI exceeds 400 more than twice, indicating extreme pollution levels. As a benchmark, an AQI over 150 is considered unhealthy for everyone

Dengue insurance – Pioneer Insurance in the Philippines offers a microinsurance product called MediCash Dengue. It provides medical cash assistance on diagnosis of dengue fever, and a hospital stay is not required to claim.

Agricultural insurance – in collaboration with the Kenya Agricultural & Livestock Research Organization and other bodies, ACRE Africa offers a picture-based crop insurance product that promotes the adoption of stress-tolerant crops and varieties, including drought-resistant seeds.

While the above inclusive insurance solutions are relatively new, pricing parametric insurance involves using a growing body of climate data, much of which has been collected by a variety of organisations for a long time. There may be much more that actuaries could be doing with this data.

We are starting to see the effects of climate change, and how insurance can help with adaptation. There will be more impacts as new risks and better understanding emerge.

So, for the creative actuary, the challenge is: what other inclusive insurance solutions could help to realise a more climate-resilient world?

WHEELS OF FORTUNE

Follow Formula 1? This is how actuarial techniques can keep the motorsport on track

RITESH GUPTA GETTY

RITESH GUPTA

23, is an actuarial student at IAQS, Mumbai

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If you are training to be an actuary and would like to write an article for this page, email student@ theactuary.com

behaviour help to determine premiums

Equipment insurance – models assess failure risk and optimise cover for costly car parts.

Sponsorship valuation

Sponsorships are a huge revenue source in F1. Actuaries can use predictive models to measure return on investment by tracking fan engagement, media exposure and brand visibility – one of the important factors behind McLaren’s rise in sponsorship revenue in 2021.

Strategy in action

Lando Norris’s decision to stay on slick tyres in the rain while Lewis Hamilton pitted for intermediate ones during the 2021 Russian Grand Prix is a textbook case for actuarial analysis. Hamilton’s strategy won him the race, while Norris fell from ﬁrst to seventh. Actuarial tools that could have helped Norris include:

Monte Carlo simulations could predict rising lap-time losses as rain intensiﬁed

Decision trees would weigh the cost-beneﬁt of different pit strategies

Expected loss models could estimate race time lost under various choices.

“F1 IS A HIGH-SPEED EXERCISE IN RISK MANAGEMENT AND DECISION MAKING”

Real-time solutions could also have contributed, including: Bayesian updating – incorporating real-time weather and track data could have triggered an earlier pit call

AI predictive tools – historical wet-race data could guide optimal pit-stop timing, helping to avoid costly missteps.

The wrong decision possibly cost McLaren heavily in Constructors’ Championship points –a reminder that, in F1, timing is everything.

The ﬁnish line F1 is more than just car racing, it’s a high-speed exercise in risk management and decision-making. Actuarial science, with its emphasis on data analysis and risk modelling, can play a crucial role in helping F1 teams make informed splitsecond decisions. Whether it’s predicting tyre wear, managing insurance risks or optimising sponsorship revenue, actuaries can help to drive success both on and off the track.

In the fast-paced world of F1, every second matters. And just like an actuary calculating risk, every decision can be the difference between crossing the ﬁnish line ﬁrst and falling behind. In F1, the data tells a story, and every winning lap is a lesson in uncertainty.

GET IN GEAR

2025 SEASON

This is the 75th year of the Formula One World Championship. The season started in March in Melbourne and ends in December in Abu Dhabi.

There are 24 races, in 21 countries. Six are Sprints – a formula introduced ﬁve years ago. A Sprint is shorter, about a third of the usual distance, and lasts about 30 minutes, with no mandatory pit-stops, unlike in Grands Prix.

To make the necessary travel around the globe more efficient, some races are now on successive weekends on nearby circuits; these are known as double- or triple-headers. For the ﬁrst season in 1950, there were just seven races: six in Europe and one at the Indianapolis 500 track in the US (which most drivers skipped). Four circuits that featured back then are still on the F1 calendar: Monaco, Monza, Silverstone and Spa. Use the code for more

Biohacking. This pursuit of longevity may seem an extreme hobby for billionaires now – but it might not be too long before it’s accepted by the body of the population

GREG SOLOMON GETTY, SHUTTERSTOCK

e continue to find flaws in existing medical science. Fortunately, there are people who don’t always believe ‘generally accepted’ wisdom and who are prepared to experiment – in their personal capacity, on their own bodies – to find the truth. Enter the biohackers.

What is biohacking?

Computer hacking was about looking for undocumented weaknesses in systems that would then allow hackers to control the computer in ways that were never intended. Then it became cool to hack your life: roll your clothes before putting them into your suitcase. Apply ice to chewing gum stuck in your hair.

Then, about 20 years ago, people started talking about ‘biohacking’, which was about ﬁnding ‘undocumented’ ways of improving your body, strengthening your mind and, ultimately, living an enhanced life.

Biohacking exploded about 10 years later with the rise of mobile phones and wearables. People began measuring all sorts of things in their lives. Total sleep, deep sleep, daily steps, frequency and severity of headaches, mood, what they ate... Yes, everything. The available technology was developing from measuring ‘activity’ (slept seven hours; meditated 20 minutes) to measuring ‘results’ (heart rate variability to quantify stress levels; headbands to measure brainwaves at home).

Thus, instead of just taking melatonin to promote sleep, a biohacker would experiment with different doses and timings of melatonin, and each morning check the sleep graphs and statistics from their wearable. Over time, they’d ﬁnd their (not ‘the’) perfect melatonin regimen for sleep. Others might track other activities such as exercise, meditation, diet and supplements, while also tracking results such as the effect on weight, sleep, mood, energy levels and more.

Just to be clear, sleeping, eating and exercising are general wellness practices, but there’s more.

Biohacking sleep, for example, would involve ﬁnding the perfect supplement regimen, sleep timing, room temperature and so on to give measurably optimal sleep.

Biohacking diet is about trying different approaches, which may go against the standard ‘food pyramid’ but actually can give demonstrably better results. For example, many biohackers, through experimentation and extensive lab testing, have found that a shift to a low-carb high-fat (LCHF) diet improves their ‘good’ cholesterol, lowers inﬂammation, improves insulin sensitivity and lowers triglycerides.

Biohackers keep pushing boundaries. Currently, people are experimenting with methylene blue (antiviral, anti-inﬂammatory), metformin (diabetes) and rapamycin (immunity suppression). But such treatments may come with side effects. Methylene blue turns your urine blue and disrupts antidepressants. Metformin, used in the long run, damages your mitochondria (the ‘batteries’ in cells). Rapamycin helps mitochondria, but crashes testosterone, scars heart tissue and slows wound healing.

While not all of us will take these risks for the chance of a longer life, there are people who will, and they might be among your policyholders.

From niche to mainstream

Bryan Johnson (see right) is an example of someone who takes biohacking to the extreme.

Although he calls sleep “the most important pillar of our lives”, he nevertheless spends more than $2m yearly on supplements (120 tablets daily), ongoing testing, stem cell injections, personal electric shock treatment, swallowing cameras for detailed monitoring, CRISPR (clustered regularly interspaced short palindromic repeats) genetic modiﬁcation, taking blood transplants from his own son and hiring a team of doctors for his personal consultation. It’s no wonder that Netﬂix did a documentary on him entitled Don’t Die: The Man Who Wants To Live Forever.

While it’s easy to write off Johnson as an outlier, the reality is that some of what he is doing may become mainstream in future. Certainly, there are many examples of niche becoming standard, even in this space.

The ﬁrst whole genome sequencing cost around £80m, whereas in 2025 it can be done for under £100 (admittedly it’s single nucleotide polymorphism genotyping only – but that still produces more information than most people can act upon). Indeed, there are insurance companies that are offering genetic-based personalised medicine services to recommend cancer treatments to policyholders.

LCHF diets used to be unusual 15 years ago, and now more and more people are ﬁnding success with them, and many restaurants offer low-carb options as standard.

It was only about 15 years ago that Tiger Woods used platelet-rich plasma injections to help his joints – one of the ﬁrst major public ﬁgures to do so – and now it has become quite a common procedure across the spectrum, often covered by insurance.

On Instagram, Johnson has 1.8m followers and Dave Asprey (another famous biohacker who made butter coffee famous, aiming to live to 180 –see

“ACTUARIES SPECIALISE IN PROTECTING SOCIETY AGAINST EXTREME EVENTS.

SO WE SHOULD BE KEEPING AN EYE ON EXTREME BIOHACKING PRACTICES”

Figure 1: Popularity of ‘biohacking’ as a search term since 2010

THREE OF A KIND

1 DAVID ASPREY

The 51-year-old Texas-based entrepreneur claims to be the “father of biohacking” and has spent millions of dollars in his quest to live to 180. He started his health journey after finding himself in poor shape from his first career in IT and start-ups. In 2009, he blogged about a coffee recipe he’d devised, which he claimed gave energy and cognitive benefits (it’s made with the supplement MCT oil, and ghee butter). He then began marketing it as Bulletproof Coffee – and his Bulletproof brand took off. It has now grown to include diet plans, health products, advice books, the podcast The Human Upgrade, an annual conference and longevity clinics called Upgrade Labs. Use the code for more on him

2 BRYAN JOHNSON

The 47-year-old Amercian entrepreneur and former Mormon made his money with payment tech company Braintree, which he sold to PayPal for $800m in 2013. He now invests in health and longevity science initiatives as a venture capitalist. He has been biohacking since 2021 – he calls it his Project Blueprint, and under this brand name markets his own longevity products, apps, advice and videos. In the recent Netflix documentary about him, Don’t Die: The Man Who Wants to Live Forever, he reveals his strict daily health regimen and has an infusion of plasma from his teenage son Talmage. He claims to be “the most measured person in history” with “the best known biomarkers in the world”. Use the code for more on him

above) has 1.3m followers. A few million isn’t ‘most of us’ but it does give credibility to the claim that biohacking is becoming mainstream. We see in Figure 1 how this term appears in searches since 2010 (with the recent spike likely caused by the Netﬂix documentary).

We don’t know what proportion of your policyholders are getting into these practices and thus reducing or eliminating the risk of getting sick or dying but we do know that there is a trend towards wellness, and towards people trying

increasingly extreme options, which in due course will be found to be effective. Or not.

What does this mean for actuaries?

In spite of the last century’s signiﬁcant medical improvements, we have basically observed a ‘squaring of the mortality curve’: improvements are evident at most ages but the longest-living lives are still broadly dying at the same age. Therefore, even if biohacking is revealing a number of effective practices, can this ever really disrupt the insurance industry? Or perhaps the multi-style impact is the key, comprising the effects of: Wellness – sleep, diet/macros, nutrition/micros, exercise – improves our health

Preventive health, through widespread use of wearables and health monitoring, enables early detection and prevention of issues

Personalised medicine uses genetics so people can tailor their diets, exercise and treatments to improve the incidence of and recovery from disease

Advanced therapies such as CRISPR could cure or even prevent genetic vulnerabilities and disorders.

Our ‘central’ projection might argue that these are the things we assumed would happen when

“ WHILE NOT ALL OF US WILL TAKE THESE RISKS FOR THE CHANCE OF A LONGER LIFE, SOME WILL — AND THEY MIGHT BE AMONG YOUR POLICYHOLDERS”

we projected future mortality improvements. No disruption expected.

Our ‘pessimistic’ view allows for the spreading of misinformation, the proliferation of unsafe and even damaging practices. Unanticipated claims start coming through. And challenges around ethics arise, such as genetic modiﬁcation of unborn children and the use of nootropics among teenagers to cope at school – with long-term health effects.

Our ‘optimistic’ scenario sees life expectancy leaping by years, if not decades (as a number of high-proﬁle biohackers claim). Critical illness claims reduce, mortality improves substantially (with an adverse ﬁnancial effect on annuities, pensions and perhaps long-term care) and medical claims change (the number of claims go down but the cost of personalised treatments increase).

Regardless of the scenario, it’s important to understand that regulations will have to keep up with all these practices. Many substances and procedures are unregulated, and even prescription drugs could be obtained for off-script purposes from a friendly family doctor or ‘overseas’ pharmaceutical company. Other practices, such as CRISPR, may be broadly outlawed but medical tourism to permissive domiciles is a possibility. While the likelihood of each scenario is up for debate, the biohacking movement is not going away. Actuaries will need to form a view on how much this will distort existing morbidity and mortality projections.

Things to remember

Correlation is not cause. Hand-strength is a good predictor of mortality in older lives but it doesn’t necessarily mean that merely by improving your hand strength, you’re improving your chance of living longer.

Everyone is different. Someone who had their gallbladder removed should not be on a high fat diet. Someone with advanced heart disease should

3 GARY BRECKA

He used to work in insurance (as CEO of life insurer Life Asset Group); now, the 54-year-old from Florida with biology degrees describes himself as “a human biologist, biohacker, researcher and anti-ageing and longevity expert”. With his 10X brand, he markets DNA testing that claims to offer “insights into your nutrition, ﬁtness, and wellness” and services around that. His celebrity clients are said to include the Kardashians and David Beckham. He received publicity a few years ago for his connection with Dana White, the American millionaire behind the mixed martial arts organisation Ultimate Fighting Championship; Brecka apparently advised him that he would die early, prompting White to embark on a huge body transformation. Use the code for more on him

SOLOMON is consulting actuary and adviser at Eigengrey Consulting in Hong Kong

probably not be doing extreme breathing and taking ice baths.

We are different to ourselves. Our age, state of health, mental frame of mind – all of these factors will affect how a person responds to different practices at different times.

For many, biohacking has become a lifestyle: try things, measure, repeat what works and change it again if you ﬁnd something that works better. This might not be for you — but some of your policyholders are already actively doing it.

Actuaries specialise in protecting society against extreme events. We should therefore be keeping an eye on extreme practices of biohacking – which might be limited now, but will grow in size and effect over time.

GREG

CHAOS THEORY

Most random number generators aren’t truly random. Quantum science has the answer, as the second article in our series on the topic shows

RAMY SHELBAYA, ZHANET ZAHARIEVA, MICHAEL TAYLOR, DAMIAN FALLET, PHIL INTALLURA SHUTTERSTOCK

andomness is a major element in computing applications and its quality can affect everything from the cybersecurity of critical infrastructure to the accuracy of ﬁnancial models. The question in hand is whether the accuracy and eﬃciency of the stochastic models used to price embedded guarantees within insurance contracts can be improved using quantum random number generators (QRNGs).

Here, we explore how quantum random numbers (QRNs) are generated and what makes them distinctive. We also share observations from a pilot study on their use in actuarial modelling – do they result in more accurate and eﬃcient models?

What are QRNs?

The current standard method for generating randomness for stochastic modelling is to use so-called pseudo-random number generators (PRNGs), a class of algorithms that produce a stream of numbers with desirable statistical proprieties. An example of such algorithms are linear congruential generators (LCGs), which can be deﬁned as

where Xn is the next number in the sequence and , and are constants that deﬁne a particular LCG. Like all PRNGs, an LCG cannot ‘create’ randomness – it requires an initial seed to get going and has a ﬁnite period. In other words, it will eventually go back to its starting point and restart the sequence from the beginning.

Nevertheless, LCGs, especially when combined to create a much bigger cycle, are a staple in software modules that implement probabilistic

“QUANTUM

RANDOM NUMBER GENERATORS USE THE PROBABILISTIC NATURE OF QUANTUM MECHANICS”

methods. The quality of the randomness can vary between PRNGs, and even between seeds in the same generator.

QRNGs generate true randomness using the inherently probabilistic nature of quantum mechanics. This can be done in numerous ways, as there is a plethora of different physical systems that behave according to the theories of quantum mechanics, such as cold atoms, superconductors and optical systems. To see how this works, consider a single quantum particle of light (photon) as it goes through a beamsplitter (Figure 1).

Classically, we can think of a 50:50 beamsplitter as reﬂecting half the light that impinges on it and letting the other half pass. However, from a quantum perspective, light is composed of individual photons. Once a photon encounters a beamsplitter, it can either go through it or be reﬂected, each with a 50% probability. This means that for the example shown in Figure 1, the photon has an equal probability of being detected at A or B. Another advantage of using a photonic system is that it operates at very high generation rates, making it suitable for demanding applications such as modelling and simulations.

Theory is not the same as practice, though. When implemented using real hardware, a system such as Figure 1 could be dominated by unreliable

and inconsistent classical noise. To that end, multiple architectures were developed using other features of quantum measurements to allow for the extraction of just the quantum-sourced entropy, thereby increasing output reliability and quality. This can be found in the various deviceindependent schemes that seek to abstract the imperfections found in real-world hardware and minimise their effects on output quality. An example of this is source-device independence, which can eliminate the issues caused by one of the most complex elements of the system: the source of quantum state itself.

QRNs in actuarial modelling

Figure 2 sets out at a high level the modelling infrastructure used in actuarial processes where stochastic calculations are required. The results from this sort of process may feed into multiple

Figure 2: A typical stochastic modelling process

Figure 1: A single photon (red circle) impinging on a beamsplitter (orange square), with two detectors (A and B) on either side

reporting formats, such as IFRS accounts, regulatory capital, pricing, stress testing and internal management information.

To test whether QRNs can improve this modelling process’s eﬃciency and accuracy, we carried out a pilot study in which the random numbers at the start of the process, currently generated using PRNGs, were replaced by QRNs. The outcomes were then investigated at certain points in the process to see whether using QRNs provided any modelling advantage.

Statistical comparison – we quantiﬁed and sampled the standard error of the moments of samples of pseudo-random numbers (PRNs) and QRNs. A positive outcome would be a lower standard error for QRNs than for PRNs

Validation outcomes of the scenario sets – we performed four standard validation tests on risk-neutral, market-consistent scenario sets. Each test was scored on a Red-Amber-Green scale, based on set criteria. A positive outcome would be a lower level of Amber and Red for QRNs than PRNs

Model leakage – the amount of funds lost due to inconsistencies between investment returns and the discount rates used to value a contract. These inconsistencies can arise because of poor validation outcomes, so model leakage can be a further quantiﬁcation of the validation tests. A positive outcome would be a lower level of model leakage with QRNs than PRNs.

A single economy was considered in the pilot study, and validation models were used to quantify the effect on a book of example participating insurance contracts.

Pilot study outcomes

The study found that greater eﬃciency and accuracy can be achieved using QRNs than PRNs (although additional statistical techniques are often employed to improve outcomes when using PRNs, which may narrow the gap). This is evident in the following example observations from the testing at 1,000 simulations (typical production level):

1 When considering the moments of the random numbers themselves, the standard error of the standard deviation was reduced by more than 50% when using QRNs. This implies that QRNs more consistently represent the underlying distribution being targeted across different choices of samples

2 Validation outcomes were consistently better when using QRNs. Based on tolerances applied in production, we observed a sample rejection rate of less than 50% for scenarios using QRNs, compared with up to 90% for PRNs

3 For the example model considered, after seed

“GREATER EFFICIENCY AND ACCURACY CAN BE ACHIEVED USING QUANTUM RANDOM NUMBERS”

selection, the absolute model leakage on guaranteed cashﬂows fell by more than 50% when using QRNs compared with PRNs.

Operational beneﬁts

These observations indicate that there may be operational beneﬁts to be gained from using QRNGs, in particular:

Seed selection – running at a converged simulation level is operationally and commercially impractical, so it is common practice to select a ‘good’ seed that can be used at a lower simulation level and provide consistent outcomes. However, this approach is both labour and computationally intensive, so cannot be performed frequently or in response to rapidly changing market conditions. Given the better validation outcomes and lower rejection rate seen when using QRNs, they could facilitate a more eﬃcient scenario selection process – and even one that can maintain its performance in response to changing market conditions, ensuring continued model performance

Model leakage – while model leakage may not always be well understood and quantiﬁed, it is ever present and, left unchecked, can be a source of noise in reported results. Where it is a problem due to statistical ineﬃciency, the only real solution is to increase the simulation number but this comes with associated operational costs. QRNs may provide an alternative way to reduce leakage to acceptable levels without adversely affecting reporting timelines or production costs.

What next?

Quantum computing is making great strides and commercially viable applications for the corporate sector may take a few more years to fully develop. QRNG technology, however, is more mature in the quantum sphere – but more work is needed to understand the scale of the benefits it could offer in a production model environment. This could mean conducting further testing on a multi-economy model and using production cashflow models, with a view to implementing the approach in production if benefits continue to be observed. The authors would like to acknowledge Del Rajan and Will Shoosmith for their contributions throughout this project.

ZHANET ZAHARIEVA is COO of Quantum

RAMY SHELBAYA is CEO of Quantum Dice

DAMIAN FALLET is senior actuary at HSBC Insurance

PHIL INTALLURA is group head of quantum technologies at HSBC is COO of Dice

MICHAEL TAYLOR is head of risk methodology at HSBC Insurance

Bechartered. Beseen.

Give your skills and hard-earned qualiﬁcations maximum visibility by claiming chartered status. Find out more at:

Lisa Balboa Chartered Actuary (Fellow)

A NEW PATHWAY

Using data science techniques can be daunting. IFoA working party members present a practical framework for incorporating them in health and care

2 Data selection, Model selection and Model review can be g

atta a scie i nc nce e te t chhniiquques es are e actuarial yet many health and those in them. To address this, the IFoA in Data Science in a framework that a for navigating the intersection of

The can as a data science considerations and to be considered for H&C It is into four main stages: 1 and

ata science techniques are transforming actuarial practice, yet many health and care (H&C) actuaries, and those in adjacent life practice areas, lack a systematic approach for implementing them. To address this, the IFoA Techniques in Data Science in Health and Care Working Party has developed a comprehensive framework that gives practitioners a roadmap for navigating the intersection of actuarial science and advanced analytics. e framework can be used as a checklist of data science considerations and techniques to be considered for H&C analytical projects. It is organised into four main modelling stages: Study design and technology requirements

2 Data selection, cleaning and processing 3 Model selection and development 4

JA C KY TAM , MI C HIEL LUTEIJN I S T OCK

Here, we demonstrate its practical value by trying to answer the question: can we predict mortality rates by applying automated data science techniques to the Continuous Mortality Investigation (CMI) dataset?

Study design and technology requirements

Data selection, cleaning and processing

comparable to those developed by the CMI. It is and is not distributed with Working Paper 162; we

Data selection - We used a CMI-compiled dataset for the study, representing the UK market’s most comprehensive and authoritative mortality experience data and provided under the CMI’s academic use agreement. Access to this proprietary dataset is restricted to CMI contributing members is not Paper 162; we are grateful to the CMI for its support.

Our objective is to produce mortality rates to those CMI. It is important to deﬁne the research question and study design thoroughly at the outset, as revising these post-analytics can be challenging. This can be achieved using the FINER criteria, which facilitate systematic assessment of important design criteria (Table 1).

Analysis was conducted in Python, which was selected for its well-developed modelling and visualisation capabilities. Our code and outputs are organised in Jupyter notebooks and opensourced in a GitHub repository, in alignment with the framework’s emphasis on transparent and reproducible investigations

Table 1: FINER criteria assessment

Criteria Assessment

Feasible CMI dataset contains a credible volume of data, with more than 40,000 claims and 15m exposure years in the period 2016-20

Interesting Addresses how data science can augment actuarial science in mortality studies

Novel Could open new avenues to mortality rate estimation by applying automated, multivariate modelling techniques

Ethical Research uses aggregated, anonymised data with appropriate institutional approvals in place

An advantage of using CMI data is the ability to benchmark our model against CMI mortality tables (T16, published in Working Paper 150), based on the term assurances data of contributing UK insurers from 2015 to 2018. They represent the industry standard approach, with crude mortality rates smoothed using Gompertz-Makeham methods to produce the ﬁnal graduated rates.

The dataset contains exposure years, observed claims and expected claims (as predicted by T16 tables). Each row represents assurance experience sharing the same features, with aggregated exposure and claim numbers.

Data cleaning and processing - Our dataset contained 10 features:

and smoker status

Policyholder attributes – age, gender, duration status

Relevant Will contribute to practical data science applications in mortality investigations with wider implications for life and H&C insurance

Product information – distribution channel, sum assured band, commencement year, joint life status and product category

Calendar year (added when merging CMI’s individual year ﬁles into one dataset).

We excluded commencement year due to its high negative correlation with duration. Duration

was retained as the more directly relevant predictor. The remaining nine features were considered for modelling.

We split the data randomly, using 80% for model development and 20% for evaluation. Following data cleaning, we prepared it for analysis by converting categorical features such as gender into numeric values. This is necessary because most machine learning models can only process numbers. For example, we transformed smoker status into binary columns – one indicating smokers (1 for smokers, 0 otherwise) and another with the opposite values (in other words, one-hot encoding). Our complete procedure is available in our GitHub repository, with the data cleaning and feature engineering procedures documented in the ‘01 – Create Modelling Data’ notebook.

Model selection and development

Mortality data presents two major characteristics: Signiﬁcant imbalance – deaths represent only a small fraction of outcomes

Unexpected variation – even within rows sharing the same risk factors, additional uncaptured elements such as location or socioeconomic status can affect mortality differently.

While models such as zero-inﬂated Poisson or negative binomial might better capture these mortality patterns, we opted for standard Poisson regression to maintain simplicity and align with CMI methodology.

We used a generalised additive model (GAM) to predict claim frequency. GAMs extend generalised linear models by ﬁtting smooth curves to marginal relationships between numerical features and death frequency. To simplify the problem, all numerical features shared the same number of splines and smoothing parameter, while all categorical ones shared the same regularisation parameter. These parameters controlled the

model’s complexity and were tuned using methods detailed in the framework.

DIG DEEPER

Use the code to read the pre-print of the sessional paper. You can ﬁnd the GitHub repository for this case study at b.link/ HC_working_ party

Defining an appropriate feature selection procedure is critical in building effective machine learning models such as GAMs. With only nine features to consider, we used a computationally expensive but typically accurate method –stepwise elimination. This iteratively quantifies the contribution of each feature on a performance metric such as Akaike information criterion or prediction accuracy. The feature with the worst impact on the performance metric is eliminated, after which the process is repeated until no further improvements can be made. Actuarial judgment then guides the final selection, balancing accuracy with interpretability.

GAMs offer excellent interpretability compared with other standard machine learning models, but

Figure 1: Feature importance by GAM model for individual features (left) and feature interactions (right)

do require interactions to be explicitly deﬁned.

For example, the effect of smoking on mortality may vary signiﬁcantly by age – something a GAM does not capture automatically. Our solution to automate this limitation was to:

Fit a GAM with only individual feature effects

Build a gradient boosting machine on the residuals to automatically detect important interaction effects

Incorporate the top interactions back into the ﬁnal GAM.

Model review

Figure 1 displays feature strength for individual features (left) and interactions (right) for the ﬁnal GAM model. Strength measures how much each feature contributes to the variation in predicted mortality risk; higher strength indicates a stronger impact on model predictions. The ﬁnal model contains six individual features and six interaction terms. Age, duration, smoker status and gender are the most important features, matching those used in the T16 tables. Joint life status, distribution channel and product category were eliminated during the feature selection process.

We can see that, according to the model, the strongest interaction is age x duration. This is consistent with the common understanding of the substantial reduction in early duration claims due to underwriting weakening over time, with this effect varying by age. Speciﬁcally, the underwriting effect at early duration is strongest for younger policyholders and weakens with increasing age at underwriting.

JACKY TAM is data science lead at Verisk and deputy chair of the IFoA Techniques in Data Science in Health and Care Working Party

MICHIEL LUTEIJN is data science lead at Hannover Re and chair of the IFoA Techniques in Data Science in Health and Care Working Party

Thanks to Rebecca Dennis, Jaskaran Minhas and Fiona Fan of the IFoA Techniques in Data Science in Health and Care Working Party

Figure 2 displays the double lift plot using the holdout data – a visualisation technique that compares performance between two models. It groups segments by the ratio of GAM predictions to CMI predictions on the x-axis. For each group, it displays both models’ ﬁtted averages and the actual frequency. It shows that GAM predictions track closer to the actual experience than the CMI predictions across most segments.

Adding value

Our framework ensures that relevant data science considerations and techniques are systematically explored and reported within an end-to-end workﬂow. This reduces the risk of overlooking important analytical decisions and sets a standard for developing and reporting H&C analytical projects.

This case study shows how H&C actuaries can select, apply and report these considerations and techniques for mortality modelling. It also highlights areas where they can play decisive roles, including framing research questions as well as scrutinising and correcting model behaviours. There will be many more applications where data science techniques can add signiﬁcant value to actuarial analysis. We encourage readers to consider adopting our framework for their speciﬁc challenges.

Our full framework will be published as a sessional paper in the British Actuarial Journal, where each stage will be explored in depth. In advance of formal publication, we have made it available as a pre-print on Authorea.

Figure 2: Double lift chart comparing GAM model to CMI base to actual observed claims

THE PLUNGE

With data such a large part of today’s reserving remit, actuaries should dive into cutting-edge storage developments, such as data lakes

WILLIAM DIFFEY, ARUN VIJAY, ALASTAIR LAUDER ISTOCK

eserving actuaries play a crucial role in helping organisations to make data-driven decisions about their insurance liabilities. Reserving’s effectiveness depends on strategic data use; without a strategic approach, it risks losing its value to broader stakeholders.

Strategic data management involves both offensive and defensive capabilities. Insurance companies, rich in data, must invest in both. While actuaries are crucial to defensive data strategies, their offensive capabilities are often underused. Investing in offensive data capabilities can enhance the value of the reserving function as a business partner.

Reserving data has traditionally been managed through centralised actuarial data warehouses. However, the inﬂux of data from sources such as telematics and the Internet of Things, and the need for advanced analytics and machine learning, are rendering this architecture obsolete. Advanced data technologies now offer scalable distributed storage options that support various data formats and strong data governance.

Although actuarial training for reserving actuaries does not cover data technologies, these skills are increasingly relevant. A spot survey conducted by the IFoA’s Towards the Optimal Reserving Process Working Party last November

revealed the major changes that are affecting reserving actuarial workﬂows:

More than 64% of respondents are involved in tasks related to data storage, cleaning and transformations

Respondents ranked improvements in data technologies as the fourth most signiﬁcant driver of change in reserving processes (Figure 1)

More than 60% of respondents rely on traditional data warehousing solutions, while 12% use modern data lakes or data lakehouse technologies (Figure 2

Reserving actuaries are involved in data storage and transformations, largely relying on structured data formats. Unstructured data formats such as those produced by Internet of Things ecosystems, telematics, pictures, videos and natural language data are not yet part of actuarial reserving

Figure 2: Data technologies used by reserving actuaries

Figure 1: Signiﬁcant changes in the reserving process, according to reserving actuaries (weighted on an ascending scale, 8 being most signiﬁcant)

SQL data warehouses Data lakes and lakehouses Orchestration and transformation tools Other

workﬂows. This is a missed opportunity if the insights hidden in these datasets are not incorporated into actuarial reserving analysis.

The role of the data lakehouse

There is increasing recognition of the strategic value of the platforms that ingest, transform, analyse and govern data within organisations. Data lakes and data lakehouses are a paradigm shift in data platform technologies, addressing the limitations of traditional data warehouses.

A data lake is a central repository that stores all unstructured and structured data at any scale. It can store a wide range of data formats alongside traditional structured actuarial reserving data formats, while allowing more robust data governance. This ﬂexibility is crucial for actuaries who need to incorporate diverse types of data into their analysis. The beneﬁts include:

Breaking down data silos – data lakes make it feasible to use data from different parts of the organisation for actuarial reserving analysis. Actuaries can tap into the semi-structured data available from, say, telematics and underwriting workﬂows to generate insights

Strong data governance – data lakes support strong governance around both structured and unstructured data. For example, data lineage and audit trails can be enhanced

Flexible access – data lakes enable easy access to data through decentralised architectures and ‘no-code’ tools. This allows use cases to be more readily established

Multiple versions – data lakes allow for multiple versions of information to be maintained while ensuring internal consistency, so multiple views and cuts of data can be seen at the same time

Simpliﬁed data use – data lakes simplify data use, allowing multiple consumers in the organisation to beneﬁt from the reserving team’s data curation and analysis.

The drawbacks, on the other hand, include: Complexity – implementing and managing a data lakehouse can be complex and require signiﬁcant expertise

Cost – while data lakes can reduce storage costs, their initial setup and ongoing management can be expensive for smaller datasets

Data quality – ensuring data quality and consistency across diverse data types can be challenging. Simply deploying a data lake does not resolve this. Data lakehouse architecture can improve data lakes’ performance by incorporating tools to monitor and maintain data quality

Security and governance – robust security measures are essential to protect sensitive data;

“INVESTING IN OFFENSIVE DATA CAPABILITIES CAN ENHANCE THE VALUE OF THE RESERVING FUNCTION AS A BUSINESS PARTNER”

internal control functions (such as risk and compliance) may well need reassurance on this topic. Enhanced data lakehouse architecture can tackle this.

Leading strategic data management

WILLIAM DIFFEY is an actuarial director at BDO and chair of the IFoA Towards the Optimal Reserving Process Working Party

ARUN VIJAY is a senior actuarial reserving manager at DLG and a member of the IFoA Towards the Optimal Reserving Process Working Party

ALASTAIR LAUDER is COO at Lime and a member of the IFoA Towards the Optimal Reserving Process Working Party

Strategic data management should involve two steps: consolidating defensive capabilities, and developing offensive data capabilities

Step 1: Consolidating defensive capabilities

Under Solvency II, the actuarial function must comment on the appropriateness of data used in calculating technical provisions. Actuaries have developed strong controls and governance around reserving data. They can support colleagues in developing similar rigour, establishing reserving as a centre of excellence in data stewardship, governance and controls.

Step 2: Developing offensive data capabilities

Offensive data use aims to improve proﬁtability or revenue. Steps to achieve this include:

Data discovery – incorporate exploratory data analysis into the reserving workﬂow, scanning all available data before specifying data for analysis

Data evangelism – lead data communities within the organisation, pioneering use cases for different types of data captured during underwriting and claims processes

Data as a product – promote reserving data as a product within the organisation, improving its consumer base and use for business insights

Effortless distribution – enable self-reporting of reserving data throughout the organisation, reducing pressure on the reserving team and supporting a wider pool of internal customers.

From defence to offence

Reserving actuaries have established defensive data capabilities; it is time to build on these strengths and focus on offensive capabilities. Embracing advances in data technologies, particularly data lakehouses, can enable reserving actuaries to take more ownership of the data estates, be more effective and provide adaptive leadership in strategic data management, enhancing their value as strategic business partners.

READ THE PAPER

Use the code to ﬁnd the research paper on which this article is based

The Covid pandemic saw breast cancer survival rates fall. What can health insurers learn from this?

AYŞE ARIK, ERENGUL DODD, ANGUS MACDONALD, GEORGE STREFTARIS ISTOCK

reast cancer is a signiﬁcant health concern for women and one of the leading causes of critical illness insurance claims; at one leading UK health insurer, it accounted for 49% of all female claims in 2023. To understand the risk better, our group of academics has developed a modelling framework for evaluating breast cancer risk under various diagnosis and treatment scenarios.

Figure 1: A breast cancer semi-Markov model in continuous time. Intensities may be functions of

and/or duration z

“MANY

WOMEN MISSED AN EARLY DIAGNOSIS

BECAUSE OF

THE PUBLIC HEALTH MEASURES IMPOSED DURING COVID”

The model is a continuous-time multiple-state model, shown in Figure 1, which allows some proportion of early-stage (pre-metastatic) breast cancer to go unobserved. The model is semiMarkov because, unlike Markov models, it allows progression to late-stage breast cancer to depend on duration. Our approach is relevant to insurers that are considering new products to cover people who have a medical history, or more reﬁned reserving assumptions.

The model is parametrised by considering:

1 The proportion of pre-metastatic breast cancer cases diagnosed, denoted by parameter

2 A proxy for the rate of breast cancer metastasis in the absence of cancer treatment, denoted by β

We assume that diagnosed cases are treated and undiagnosed cases are not. This parametrisation allows us to create different scenarios that can be associated with various healthcare systems.

Cancer survival by stage

Early cancer diagnosis and treatment is vital for improved survival; delays typically result in more metastatic cases, which have worse survival rates (Figure 2). The difference in survival rates by cancer stage matters, especially since many women missed an early diagnosis because of the public health measures imposed during Covid.

Calibrating the model with respect to prepandemic breast cancer registrations and different causes of deaths in England between 2001 and 2019, we see a signiﬁcantly lower survival rate for women with metastatic breast cancer. It also points to an unusual relationship between premetastatic cancer survival and age, which is not captured by more compact models; cancer survival is higher at older ages than at younger ages. The availability of the national screening programme at older ages (50 to 70), and the more aggressive cancer types developed by younger women, might contribute to this.

Running the model using pre- and postpandemic parameters allows us to estimate short-term excess deaths and years of life expectancy lost because of the pandemic’s

inﬂuence on breast cancer incidence and mortality. In the post-pandemic calibrations, we assume an increase in age-speciﬁc mortality from other causes of 3% to 13%, as well as a decline in observed breast cancer incidence by 20% – in line with the initial public health disruptions caused by the 2020 lockdowns.

We found that, in our baseline scenario, breast cancer deaths doubled from 3% to 6% compared with the pre-pandemic calibration. Altering the parameters to assume better access to treatment through the pandemic gives a lower mortality increase.

Premiums: different considerations

GEORGE STREFTARIS is professor of statistics at the School of Mathematical & Computer Sciences, Heriot-Watt University

is professor emeritus of actuarial mathematics at Heriot-Watt University

AYŞE ARIK is a senior lecturer at the School of Risk and Actuarial Studies, University of New South Wales, Australia y South Wales, Australia

ERENGUL DODD is professor of actuarial mathematics and statistics at the School of Mathematical Sciences, University of Southampton

We used our model to investigate the effect on estimated net insurance premiums for critical illness contracts that pay out on breast cancer diagnosis or death. Our ﬁndings are calculated using a constant effective annual interest rate for both a whole life and a 10-year term contract for a healthy woman aged 35 or 60 at time of purchase.

We ﬁnd that poor diagnosis rates lead to greater sensitivity in the pricing, especially with limited access to breast cancer treatment. However, when the diagnosis rate is reasonably high, the net premium rates are more consistent across different purchasing ages and policy maturities.

What does it all mean?

Given the steady decrease in breast cancer mortality over recent decades, our results indicate that public health disruptions caused by Covid have had a signiﬁcant effect on breast cancer deaths at older ages. As more data becomes available, further evaluation of cancer survival will be necessary.

More detailed modelling approaches are required for the pricing and reserving calculations of different life insurance products. Our approach gives better insights into cancer survival rates and relevant future insurance cashﬂows, and highlights the importance of duration and age dependence in cancer rates.

Our ﬁndings on the effect of late diagnoses also give insurers and policymakers an insight into how varying levels of healthcare provision affect women aged 65 and over. This could inform targeted health initiatives to support women who are at higher risk or in disadvantaged circumstances.

With increasing population longevity and relatively high breast cancer survival rates, these ﬁndings should be considered when addressing pricing and valuation assumptions in pension plans and healthcare for older adults.

For more on the effects of Covid, turn over

ANGUS MACDONALD

TIME WILL TELL

Five years on from the ﬁrst UK lockdown, how has the Covid pandemic affected the nation’s mortality – and its health more widely?

MATT FLETCHER SHUTTERSTOCK

he ﬁrst UK lockdown was announced on 23 March 2020, with the then Prime Minister Boris Johnson issuing a ‘stay at home’ order. This was lifted in stages between May and July, followed by further restrictions in September and October, and another full lockdown in November 2020.

Most of the country was still under signiﬁcant restrictions at the end of 2020, and a third national lockdown was introduced from January to March in 2021.

Five years after that ﬁrst lockdown, let’s examine how UK mortality developed during the pandemic and how things look today.

I’ll also investigate the effect that Covid may have had on various aspects of the nation’s health, and how this might affect mortality into the future.

Mortality rates

While a well-documented slowdown in UK life expectancy improvements had started in around 2011, 2019 saw by some distance the lightest mortality up to that point, with death rates in the months leading up to March 2020 also being relatively low. However, as Covid spread, the months after March 2020 saw very high numbers of deaths, with mortality rates remaining elevated in subsequent years.

When comparing UK mortality in different years, we need to be aware that the population tends to get larger and older over time. This means that, without mortality improvements, the number of deaths increases year on year. We can ensure a fair comparison of death rates over time by calculating the mortality rates in the population each year and applying them to a standard population. Analysis from the Continuous Mortality Investigation (CMI), based on data from the Oﬃce for National Statistics (ONS), shows the standardised mortality rates for age 20 to 100 in England and Wales between 2019 and 2024 (Table 1).

The increase of 87,000 deaths between 2019 and 2020 is unprecedented in recent times, while the numbers of deaths in the following years were lower than in 2020 but did not go back down to 2019 levels. Around 36,500 more deaths were registered in 2024 than in 2019, but the standardised rates were similar. On that basis, we might say that 2024 mortality rates had returned to pre-pandemic rates.

Broadly, there are two ways of looking at this. The ‘glass half-full’ interpretation is that, despite the pandemic’s ongoing effects, UK mortality has bounced back to pre-pandemic levels. The ‘glass

“THE PANDEMIC ALSO HAD KNOCK-ON EFFECTS ON WIDER POPULATION HEALTH THAT AREN’T VISIBLE IN HISTORIC DATA”

half-empty’ interpretation is that, without the pandemic, we might have expected to see ﬁve years of mortality improvement – so we remain signiﬁcantly behind where we might otherwise have expected to be, which has a knock-on effect on how we project life expectancy.

Life expectancy projections

The CMI publishes mortality projections models annually. The last pre-pandemic model was based on population-level mortality data up to the end of 2019 (known as CMI_2019) and the most recent full model uses data up to the end of 2023 (CMI_2023).

For a typical UK pensioner aged 65 in 2025, using the core calibration of each model and a typical long-term rate of improvement, the projected life expectancy has fallen since the pre-pandemic model (Table 2).

The reduction in life expectancy from CMI_2019 to CMI_2023 – around nine months for men and around seven months for women – equates to a reduction in liabilities of around 2% for a typical pension scheme. It’s worth noting that this is a liability reduction purely based on adopting the model’s latest version, without adjusting any of

Table 1: Standardised mortality rates for those aged 20-100 in England and Wales, 2019-2024

MATT FLETCHER is head of the Demographic Horizons team at Aon and chair of the IFoA Mortality Research Steering Committee

Source: ONS and CMI

Table 2: Projected UK life expectancy, 2019-2023

Source: Author’s calculations, based on CMI models

Type FactorEffect on health

BehaviouralPhysical activity

Cardiovascular health, stroke, diabetes, some cancers, plus mental health and functional capabilities in older people

BehaviouralObesityHeart disease, type 2 diabetes, cancer, liver/respiratory disease

BehaviouralAlcoholWeakened immune system, organ damage (liver disease, heart disease, stroke)

BehaviouralSmokingChronic obstructive pulmonary disease, heart disease, cancer of lung and other organs

Health-relatedLong Covid

Health-relatedCovid infections

Health-relatedFlu infections

Health-relatedNHS waiting list

Health-relatedA&E waiting times

Broadly flat

Increasing

Broadly flat

Falling

Lower quality of life, impaired health N/A

Flu-like symptoms, can lead to hospitalisation and death N/A

Reduced in 2020/21, now back to pre-pandemic levels

No clear effect – continuation of previous increases

Proportion of people drinking is similar, but number of deaths is increasing

No clear effect

2 million experiencing long Covid, 381,000 say they’re “limited a lot”

Involved in around 1 in 55 deaths in 2024 (1 in 8 in 2021)

Can lead to hospitalisation and deathSeasonal and variableVery low levels in the pandemic due to lockdowns. Signiﬁcant flu seasons in 2022/23 and 2024/25

Delayed or cancelled non-emergency treatment likely to lead to worse health outcomes

Longer waits between decision to admit and admission associated with higher likelihood of death within 30 days of discharge

Sources: Department of Health and Social Care, ONS

its parameters (for example, the long-term rate of improvement).

The CMI recently published a new model, allowing for data up to the end of 2024. The proposal increases life expectancy slightly for males aged 65 compared with the most recent full model, reﬂecting that mortality in 2024 was lighter than the CMI_2023 projection.

The ONS also publishes regular life expectancy projections. Its 2018-based (pre-pandemic) projections for England and Wales gave a life expectancy of 85 years and seven months for a man aged 65 in 2025, 87 years and 10 months for a woman. In its 2022-based projections, this had fallen to 85 years and one month for men but remained unchanged for women.

The pandemic’s wider effects

By updating mortality models with the most recent data, we can factor in Covid’s direct effect on mortality rates compared with previous projections. This has typically led to reductions in projected life expectancy.

However, the pandemic has also had knock-on effects on wider population health that aren’t visible in historic data. Tracking these indicators can be helpful when considering the path of future mortality – for example, sustained falls in NHS waiting lists or A&E waiting time indicators may allow mortality to improve faster than is currently factored in, while sustained deterioration may indicate slower improvements.

Slowly increasing, from 2.3 million to 4.6 million procedures between 2010 and early 2020

Between 10 and 20%

waiting over 4 hours, almost no waits over 12 hours

Rapid increase to 7.5 million procedures

Rapid increase – 60,000+ waited more than 12 hours in December 2024, 25-30% waiting more than 4 hours each month

Looking further

Measuring and monitoring the pandemic’s effects in this way is important when setting mortality and morbidity assumptions. However, there are other factors to consider, such as:

Investigating trends in causes of death (such as the signiﬁcant recent increase in deaths from liver disease). This is an area that the IFoA Mortality Research Steering Committee has been focusing on recently, producing a publicly available Drivers of Mortality Dataset

Investigating differential trends by age – latest data suggests that mortality at younger ages has been ﬂat or increasing, even in the last two years

Considering longer-term effects on future health, such as the accelerated development of MRNA vaccines, and the additional preparedness that the population may have for future pandemics.

The

nation’s health

DIG DEEPER

Use the code to ﬁnd the IFoA Mortality Research Steering Committee’s Drivers of Mortality Dataset

Covid has affected the nation’s health in many ways, both directly and indirectly. While it continues to contribute directly to mortality, with almost 10,000 deaths involving Covid recorded in 2024, the largest effects are likely to be more indirect, relating to the longer-term knock-on consequences for healthcare.

Although it’s possible to argue that other factors are to some extent ‘baked in’ to the latest mortality improvement models, tracking these indicators can allow us to modify our views if we see signiﬁcant improvement or deterioration.

Table 3: The effect of the pandemic on selected population health indicators

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SOFT SKILLS

A fordesign life

ACTUARIES CAN USE THEIR EXPERTISE IN MORTALITY TO THEIR PERSONAL ADVANTAGE, BY APPLYING IT TO THEIR OWN HEALTH AND LONGEVITY, SAYS JUNAID IQBAL

Whenever someone asks my wife what I do for a living, she grins and says, “He counts dead people.” Telling them I’m an actuary gets her a blank look; it’s not the kind of job you see on television or read about in novels.

Technically, she’s not wrong; as a life actuary I have pored over seemingly morbid information analysing patterns in life, death and everything in between. To change this characterisation, though, let’s use that same data to share a formula for living a longer, healthier and happier life. We actuaries have spent decades measuring death – it’s time we used that knowledge to enhance life.

A century of life expectancy gains Willets et al.’s 2004 paper Longevity in the 21st

Century charts how life expectancy at birth in England and Wales rose by around 30 years over the previous century, largely thanks to vaccines, antibiotics, science and sheer human stubbornness.

In the ﬁrst half of the 20th century, improved sanitation, clean drinking water, antibiotics and vaccinations dramatically reduced deaths from infectious diseases such as tuberculosis and pneumonia. Infant mortality plummeted, life expectancy surged and society was fundamentally changed.

In the second half of the century, improvements were driven by better management of chronic conditions such as heart disease and diabetes. The rise of preventive medicine, early detection and lifestyle awareness played an increasing role. Smoking rates dropped,

more people got moving and information on healthy living became mainstream.

The four pillars of longevity

When it comes to living better and longer, data and research offer insights on four interconnected pillars.

1. Lifestyle: small habits, big results

This is perhaps the most intuitive pillar, covering how you move, what you eat and your habits.

Epidemiological studies provide some fascinating speciﬁcity to this.

From the Framingham Heart Study to the Nurses’ Health Study, there is a

wealth of evidence that regular physical activity, a balanced diet, not smoking, and moderate (or no) alcohol use are among the most effective ways to add years to your life – and life to your years.

Walking is the ultimate low-hanging fruit. A study published in the Journal of the American Medical Association (JAMA) – Internal Medicine showed that 8,000 daily steps can cut your risk of death by 51%.

The old idea that wine is good for you, on the other hand, hasn’t aged well. New studies suggest it’s not the wine but the wealth and lifestyle of the drinkers that is doing the heavy lifting.

WE ACTUARIES HAVE SPENT DECADES MEASURING DEATH — IT’S

TIME WE USED THAT KNOWLEDGE TO ENHANCE

LIFE

And speaking of heavy lifting, muscle strength matters. A study published in JAMA – Network Open found that people with possible sarcopenia (agerelated loss of muscle mass) had a signiﬁcantly elevated mortality risk compared with those without, with a hazard ratio of 1.79, indicating a 79% higher risk of death.

Smokers face triple the death risk but quitting starts reversing this within a year. By 15 years, it nears that of a non-smoker.

Diet matters, too. A study published in The Lancet found that diets rich in plant-based foods, especially fruits, vegetables and legumes, are associated with a reduced mortality risk. People who ate 10 portions of fruits and vegetables a day had a 31% lower risk of dying from chronic diseases.

2. Biological scorecard

Biological predictors include blood pressure, cholesterol, glucose levels and body mass index. These are the numbers we poke, prod and track at every health screening, and for good reason – they form the internal narrative of your ageing process.

Cardiovascular health is foundational. High blood pressure and cholesterol silently eat away at your survival curve. Glycated

haemoglobin (HbA1c) and fasting glucose tests can warn of looming diabetes. Body fat and composition are nuanced: obesity increases risk but muscle mass is important, too. A ﬁt, strong 60-year-old is likely to outlive and outperform a sedentary 40-year-old.

Sleep deserves a special mention. Studies show that getting less than six or more than 10 hours increases heart disease risk, with oversleeping linked to a 41% rise. The sweet spot is seven to eight hours, which my long-suffering friends have seen from the relative risk U curves I draw on napkins. Personally, prioritising sleep has improved my mood, workouts and even tolerance for long-winded work meetings.

Regular health checks are early warning systems for your body. To friends who proudly claim they have not had one in years, I can only say that is not bravery – that is recreational gambling.

3. Psychosocial: your brain and your people

The legendary Harvard Study of Adult Development – one of the world’s longest studies of adult life, summarised beautifully in George Vaillant’s book Aging Well – found that warm relationships predicted healthy ageing better than IQ, wealth or even cholesterol

levels. I now use my commuting time to call friends and share laughs, instead of listening to news updates.

A sense of purpose, strong relationships, mental stimulation and a positive outlook are powerful longevity boosters. From optimism to ikigai (a Japanese concept that roughly translates to ‘reason for being’), these psychosocial factors help keep your brain sharp, your heart strong and your life longer.

4. Environmental: the quiet hand on the scales Clean air and water save lives. Access to preventive healthcare changes life expectancy trajectories. And yes, money matters. The UK’s Office for National Statistics shows that people in affluent areas live about nine years more than those in deprived ones – not because of yachts and caviar but because financial security means access to healthy food, safer neighbourhoods and better healthcare.

What’s the blueprint?

The formula for longevity, then, is simple enough: don’t smoke, exercise regularly, keep your body healthy, build muscle, sleep well, reduce alcohol, test regularly, plan your ﬁnances well, ﬁnd meaningful relationships and laugh a lot. Following it all is rather more of a challenge.

Actuaries know that longevity is not just luck. It is measurable, buildable and largely within each person’s inﬂuence. Let’s put that knowledge to use in our own lives.

Turn to page 34 for more on the bid for longevity…

JUNAID IQBAL FIA is a longevity enthusiast living in Malaysia

What’s your background in Bollywood dancing?

I’m from India and I started dancing at the age of seven; it became the favourite part of my day. I trained in the classical dance Bharatanatyam for eight years, and dabbled in hip hop. At one point I wanted to pursue dance as a career and my parents were incredibly supportive – even taking me to auditions. It’s ironic that I chose actuarial science as my profession, which led to a much longer academic journey than I’d planned.

What is Bollywood dance?

It’s pure energy and celebration – a freestyle dance form, originally from Bollywood ﬁlms, that blends different dance forms. It reﬂects the vibrancy of Indian culture and is an essential part of festivities. It incorporates lively hand gestures, dramatic facial expressions and moves that are as joyful to watch as they are to perform.

How did you get started?

I moved to London from India three years ago and challenged myself to attend dance classes three times a

FIND OUT MORE Use the code for Darshika’s Instagram, @actuarywhodances

ACTUARY AND…

Bollywood dancer

SENIOR MANAGER DARSHIKA AGARWAL TEACHES THE MOVES TO LONDONERS – FOR A GOOD CAUSE

week, which reignited my passion. Dancing gives me conﬁdence and a sense of liberation – especially in front of a camera. Around the same time, I was having conversations with my mum about the challenges young girls face accessing education in India. That’s when the idea clicked: combine my passion for dance by giving classes for a cause close to my heart. ‘Groove for Good with Darshika’ was born.

Tell us about your classes… I host classes on the last Friday of the month at Pineapple Dance Studios in Covent Garden, London –perfect for people to unwind after work. I’ve taught more than 300 people, with the proceeds going to the NGO ‘Project Nanhi Kali’, which supports education for girls in India. I spread the word

What happens in a class? A 90-minute burst of energy! We start with a five-minute warm-up, followed by practising choreography to one chosen Bollywood song. The last half an hour is for performance, where participants team up, cheer each other on and even film themselves. It’s about stepping out of your comfort zone while having a blast. The classes are high-energy, so you get a great workout while building confidence, connecting with others and de-stressing.

Who attends?

through my Instagram, @actuarywhodances, where my dance videos have amassed 500k views. Many participants also hear about the classes through word of mouth, groups and workplace social channels.

Tell us more about Project Nanhi Kali… It trains underprivileged girls in 21st-century skills such as ﬁnancial and digital literacy, as well as life skills, making the transition from school to work more seamless. The programme also integrates physical education to cultivate leadership, teamwork and ﬁtness. Through my classes, I’ve been able to sponsor the education of 18 girls –I even receive progress reports, making it all the more rewarding.

Men and women from Indian, British, Turkish, European and plenty of other backgrounds. Many are new to Bollywood dancing; some have never danced before. I make sure to break down each step so it’s easy to follow. I’ve made so many friends, and we often grab a meal together after class.

Any memorable or challenging moments? Watching ﬁrst-timers dance with conﬁdence and joy is incredibly rewarding. Publicising the class is a challenge but seeing participants’ enthusiasm and energy makes it worthwhile.

Does your dancing influence your day job? Dancing and actuarial work share essential skills such as perseverance, focus and people skills. Importantly, dancing helps me relax and recharge – I’m in the moment, stress-free. It’s the perfect counterbalance to a numbers-driven career.

LET US KNOW… If you have an interesting pursuit outside work, email social@theactuary.com

MEMBER NEWS

TIMOTHY MEDCALF

Timothy Medcalf, a brilliant actuary and beloved friend who was devoted to his family, passed away at the age of 46 after a courageous battle with cancer.

When Tim studied mathematics, operational research, statistics and economics at the University of Warwick, he was adamant that he would not be following in the actuary footsteps of his father, Lester. Luckily for the profession, he saw sense (or perhaps recognised the inevitable) and joined Deloitte as an actuarial student, becoming a hugely respected and valued member of the ﬁrm’s insurance practice for more than 25 years. He held several important leadership positions, including in the Life Actuarial team, where he supported important client engagements.

Tim broke ground from the start, having a thirst for

applying new techniques to actuarial problems. He was renowned for the quality of his technical work, with “brilliant actuary” a common summary by clients and colleagues alike. Beyond his professional achievements, his popularity stemmed from his incredible loyalty, kindness and support for others.

Outside the actuarial world, Tim enjoyed sport: he loved to lament West Ham’s latest developments and was a keen triple and long jumper. Remarkably, he remains ranked in the top 10 for Sussex triple jumping, with a best of 14.11m.

Tim fought his illness with determination until the end, maintaining remarkable optimism and a strong focus on recovery, which inspired those around him. He was determined to return to work after his original surgery, and when he did, his leadership and positive energy was felt by Deloitte’s whole actuarial team. During this period he led work that could transform capital modelling for life insurance companies.

Tim leaves behind his wife, Karen, and two children, Riley and CJ. He will be deeply missed by his family, friends, colleagues, clients and all who had the privilege to know him.

OBITUARY

ANDREW CHAMBERLAIN

Well-known and well-respected actuary Andrew Chamberlain recently passed away. He was a long-standing member and dedicated volunteer of the IFoA, and his contributions to the actuarial profession spanned four decades. Andrew became a student member of the Institute of Actuaries in 1977, qualifying as a Fellow in 1983. Over the course of his career, he worked in several signiﬁcant roles, including at Hill Samuel Life Assurance, Aetna Life, the Government Actuary’s Department and Watson Wyatt. From 2010 to 2017, he held senior roles at Partnership Assurance. His professional career was marked by both technical excellence and principled leadership. His voluntary service to the IFoA was outstanding in both length and impact. He served terms on the Institute Council and then IFoA Council from 2001 to 2013 and played a pivotal role on numerous committees. These included the Life Board (which he chaired), the Professional Affairs Board, and the Supervision and

Insurance Regulation Committees. His expertise helped guide the profession through critical regulatory discussions and developments; he appeared in Parliament before the Treasury Select Committee in 2017 to represent the IFoA’s views on Solvency II and post-Brexit reform. His inﬂuence extended globally through his extensive work with the International Actuarial Association (IAA), where he served for more than 20 years. He was the IFoA’s delegate to the IAA’s Insurance Regulation Committee and a founding member (later chair) of the IAA’s Actuarial Standards Committee. He also contributed signiﬁcantly to the IAA’s representation on IFRS matters. His warmth, wisdom and generosity of spirit earned him the admiration of colleagues worldwide. Andrew was awarded the Institute of Actuaries President’s Award in 2010, in recognition of his particular contribution to the profession. And in 2022, he was awarded the IFoA’s prestigious Finlaison Medal.

Beyond his work and related volunteering, Andrew served as a local councillor for Merton Borough Council from 1982 to 1994, at one point working alongside Theresa May. He was a governor at two schools: Abbotsbury Primary School in Morden, Surrey (for more than 30 years) and his old school, King’s College in Wimbledon (for more than 20 years).

A fan of good food, wine and real ale, Andrew sat on the Campaign for Real Ale ﬁnance committee from 2017 to 2025. He had a deep love of cricket, was a keen Surrey fan and friends report that he took great delight in umpiring. He also greatly enjoyed travelling and his volunteering with the IAA gave him and his wife Joe the opportunity to go to places they may not otherwise have visited.

IFoA president Kartina Tahir Thomson, who knew him through their work for the IAA, said: “Andrew’s passing represents a profound loss to the actuarial community in the UK and more widely. He was not only a deeply knowledgeable and principled actuary, but also a kind and generous colleague, mentor and friend to many. I will miss his pragmatic and kind approach to collaborative working. His legacy is one of thoughtful leadership and unwavering commitment to the public interest. We extend our sincere condolences to Andrew’s family, friends and professional peers across the globe. His many contributions to the IFoA and to the wider profession will be remembered with deep respect and gratitude.”

OBITUARY

MIKE O’BRIEN

Michael ‘Mike’ O’Brien passed away in May, aged 62. The IFoA Fellow and Chartered Financial Analyst will be remembered for his commitment to mentorship, and as a husband and father.

Having grown up on Ireland’s west coast, Mike won a scholarship to study applied maths at the University of Limerick, where he met his wife, Pauline. He completed his actuarial training at Canada Life’s London office, qualifying in less than four years, and in 1988 took a consulting role with Towers Perrin, where he was introduced to quantitative ﬁnance and indexation.

At this time, Mike was diagnosed with stage four cancer, becoming one of the ﬁrst stem cell therapy recipients. This gave him an unbreakable spirit and a desire to do something pioneering. Nigel Williams

SOCIETY

brought him to Barclays Global Investors and tasked him with taking on the top five balanced managers. As European head of institutional business, he helped to transform indexation from an academic idea to a dominant force. His client management led to an annual revenue run rate of over $1bn, securing his position when Blackrock bought the firm in 2009. Mike joined JP Morgan Asset Management in 2010 as global head of institutional business, overseeing $1.5trn assets under management and building its UK defined contribution business before becoming CEO of asset management EMEA in 2014. His final post was as co-head of asset management solutions in New York, featuring in Irish America magazine’s list of the top 50 Irish or IrishAmericans on Wall Street.

Following retirement in 2020, Mike turned to advising and mentoring. He was a board member for Aberdeen Group, nonexecutive director at Carne Group and senior adviser at Osmosis Investment Management and S64 Capital Innovation. He sat on the National Association of Pension Funds’ Investment Council, and was independent adviser to the Pension Protection Fund’s Investment Committee and adviser to British Coal Pension Funds. Mike was known for his positive outlook and care for those he worked with. A keen sportsman, he enjoyed golf, skiing, cycling and triathlons. Having lost his eldest son, he placed deep importance on family, putting them ahead of career milestones. For that, they will be forever grateful.

New network

The Pakistani Actuarial Network UK (PAN UK) was founded by senior actuary Naz Ali in 2024 and is an independent, non-proﬁt membership organisation for all actuaries, in particular actuaries of Pakistani origin living and working in the UK and abroad.

It aims to bolster culture and connection among this community by offering mentorship and career/exam guidance; hosting social events, CPD sessions and workshops; and undertaking charity work.

Several roles in the leadership team are yet to be ﬁlled – if you are interested in these, or in simply joining, email info@pan-uk.com

GET INVOLVED Use the code to ﬁnd out more

DEATHS

It is with great regret and our condolences that we announce the death of the following members: James Creedon joined the IFoA in 2000, became a Fellow in 2003 and passed away on 07/05/2025

Nicolaas Roodt became an Honorary Fellow in 1973

Enter this year’s Brian Hey Prize

The IFoA’s Brian Hey Prize celebrates research that tackles real-world general insurance challenges with originality and rigour. Last year’s winning team commented: “We weren’t thinking about awards – we were trying to solve a problem we were genuinely curious about”, while another highly commended author reﬂected that “it started with a pint and a shared challenge at work”.

Whether driven by collaboration or curiosity, the Brian Hey Prize recognises what matters: impact. Winners receive £500, recognition at the IFoA GIRO conference and publication opportunities. Submissions for 2025 are open until 30 August.

Peter Clark Prize: 2024 winners

Finlaison Medals

THE

IF O A AWARDED ITS PRESTIGIOUS FINLAISON MEDAL TO TWO RECIPIENTS RECENTLY: CHARLES COWLING AND JANE CURTIS

Each year, the IFoA gives prizes for outstanding papers put out in its publications. The Peter Clark Prize is for those presented or published for an actuarial audience. For 2024, Nhan Huynh and Mike Ludkovski won for their Annals of Actuarial Science paper ‘Joint models for cause-of-death mortality in multiple populations’. The authors use cutting-edge spatial machinelearning methods, and the panel was impressed by their effective application, methodological rigour and innovation.

Ludkovski explained: “Our paper leverages the Human Cause-of-Death Database to develop joint stochastic models that eﬃciently capture crosscause and cross-population dependencies. Such information fusion boosts predictive power to smooth and extrapolate cause- and age-speciﬁc mortality rates, providing insights into commonalities and heterogeneities in mortality trends across causes, countries and genders.”

Ronald Richman and Mario Wüthrich were highly commended for their Annals of Actuarial Science paper ‘Smoothness and monotonicity constraints for neural networks using ICEnet’.

Geoffrey Heywood Prize: 2024 winners

The Geoffrey Heywood Prize is awarded for excellent communication and engagement with a general actuarial audience. For 2024, Caesar Balona won for his British Actuarial Journal (BAJ) paper ‘ActuaryGPT: applications of large language models to insurance and actuarial work’. The panel agreed that the paper was an excellent introduction to large language models (LLMs) for those wanting to learn more. It communicates clearly with its target audience and engages with demand for the understanding of the function of LLMs in insurance.

Balona commented: “I searched for resources exploring LLMs’ potential impact on the actuarial profession [...] but found little available guidance. I decided to ﬁll this gap by learning about them myself and creating the resource I felt our profession needed.”

PAST WINNERS

Use the code to read past winning papers from all the above prizes

Pietro Parodi et al. were highly commended for their BAJ paper ‘Loss modelling from ﬁrst principles’, as were Andreas Troxler and Jürg Schelldorfer for their BAJ paper ‘Actuarial applications of natural language processing using transformers’. APPLY NOW Use the code to

The Finlaison Medal was ﬁrst awarded in 1985 and is named after John Finlaison, the Institute of Actuaries’ founding president. The medal recognises service to the profession in fulﬁlling the Royal Charter’s responsibilities, beyond what is expected of an ordinary member.

The IFoA council acknowledges the service of Charles Cowling (top, with then-president Kartina Tahir Thomson) over many years to promote and serve the profession in the public interest, and to advance actuarial knowledge. He recently stepped down as president of the International Actuarial Association (IAA) and has served on IFoA council ﬁve times over 16 years, starting in 2003.

The council also recognises the contribution of Jane Curtis (inset) through her extensive volunteer work in the public interest at both the IFoA and IAA. As the ﬁrst female IFoA president, she helped introduce a ﬁve-year strategy to develop the profession’s thought-leadership role, adding value and insight into public policy debates. She won the IFoA President’s Award in 2010 and 2022, and Professional Pensions’ ‘Women in Pensions –Lifetime Achievement Award’ in 2023.

PUZZLES

ARE YOU A MATHS MAESTRO OR LOGIC LOVER? Send your challenges to us at puzzles@theactuary.com

MEMBER PUZZLE 46

Crossword

Across

1 Peculiar individual heading into strange places (7)

5 In secrecy, clear bin for future use (7)

10 Square dancing group, extremely lost, joins foxtrot (4)

11 King’s number one in speech? (3,5,2)

12 Going through housing development of clean city (8)

13 Heartless deserter in place to take off (6)

14 Update old number about a thousand and one times (5)

15 A plate with bad cooking is easy to change (9)

17 Extracts Bond’s boss undercover among French spies (9)

20 Spot quick kiss given to son (5)

23 You’ll feel it on a roller coaster - girl power! (1-5)

25 Detach loose ends of tea cosy, ﬁlling up time? (5,3)

26 You wanna get out of this breakout area? (6,4)

27 Miss sleeps cycling (4)

28 Journalists in team gathering rubbish and coming back (7)

29 Wearing snug underwear, mostly to keep it short (2,5)

MENSA PUZZLE 886

Which symbol

X O # + $ / should replace the question mark to continue the sequence?

Down

2 Foul by top player, supporter abuse ultimately follows (7)

3 Controlling ability to turn (9)

4 Tomfoolery from cats in litter (6)

6 Proceed to tuck into tripe mix - it’s self-serving! (3,4)

7 Long, unspeciﬁed period in the future? (5)

8 Blue party offer very little (7)

9 Seeker of change underground dreamt to elect revolutionary (5,8)

16 First course of exercise: traipse around outside (9)

18 Wine incorporating blend snubbed (7)

19 Don under surveillance for viewing devices (7)

21 Toxic substance spoiled nice day (7)

22 Quite regularly meet new minions (3,3)

24 Cook rib (5)

MENSA PUZZLE 887

Rearrange the letters of ‘HE EMPLOYED TV SHOW’ to give the name of a James Bond ﬁlm. What is it?

BACK FORMORE

YOU’VE READ THE ISSUE – NOW TRY THESE MULTI-MEDIA FURTHER

RECOMMENDATIONS

Darshika’s podcast

Darshika Agarwal, the actuary featured on page 61, is not just a keen Bollywood dancer in her spare time but also a YouTube podcaster. She says of her show, Statistically Speaking with Darshika: “It’s aimed at aspiring actuaries, offering real-life insights from seasoned professionals; each 30-minute episode dives into the experiences of actuaries from diverse backgrounds. My vision is to create a go-to resource, a living encyclopaedia, for aspiring actuaries.” Use the code to ﬁnd it on YouTube

BOOKS

PROOF

Author: Adam Kucharski

Publisher: Proﬁle Books

Questions of uncertainty abound these days (hence the Big Question this issue, page 16).

The author, a mathematician-turnedmedical professor (at the London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine), has given his new book the subtitle: The Uncertain Science of Certainty. In it, he looks back over time to explore what certainty has meant to us in the past, and what it means today, in the age of digital mis- and disinformation. Use the code to ﬁnd it on Amazon

The Actuary podcast and videos We’ve now recorded ﬁve episodes in our podcast series. In them, we talk to our main interviewee from the last issue of the magazine; in Episode 5, we hear from Tom Clementi of Pool Re (above, May/June issue) and in Episode 6, we’ll meet this issue’s cover star and the new IFoA president, Paul Sweeting (see page 20). We’ve also made four videos to complement the magazine. The latest discusses why modelling is at an ethical crossroads. Do take a look. Use the code to ﬁnd all our podcasts and videos at theactuary.com

BLUEPRINTS

Author: Marcus du Sautoy

Publisher: Fourth Estate Du Sautoy’s role at the University of Oxford is as a professor for the public understanding of science. Here, he disseminates information on the crossover between maths and the arts. He forges many links and cites plenty of examples – such as how the architect Le Corbusier used Fibonacci sequences in his buildings and how the artist Jackson Pollock’s paint splatters reflect fractals in nature. Use the code to ﬁnd it on Amazon

BIOHACKING

Going on further…

The idea of living a long healthy life appeals to all of us (see news, p8) but the idea of doing extreme things to our bodies in the pursuit of pushing the boundaries of longevity is, at the moment, for just a few. The biohacking feature on page 34 mentions Dave Asprey and his ever-expanding lifestyle brand; he has a new book out, on meditation: Heavily Meditated For more reading around the subject, there’s Ageless: The New Science of Getting Older Without Getting Old by ‘computational biologist’ Andrew Steele. He features as an expert commentator in Don’t Die, the Netflix documentary on Bryan Johnson (also mentioned in the feature). You can ﬁnd the books on Amazon. Use the code to go to Don’t Die on Netflix

PUZZLE ANSWERS… MEMBER PUZZLE 45: Across: 1 Special, 5 Recycle, 10 Four, 11 The royal we, 12 Valencia, 13 Runway, 14 Remix, 15 Adaptable, 17 Fragments, 20 Speck, 23 G-force, 25 Cheat day, 26 Escape room, 27 Skip, 28 Editors, 29 In brief Down: 2 Profane, 3 Cornering, 4 Antics, 6 Ego trip, 7 Yearn, 8 Lowball, 9 Metal detector, 16 Appetiser, 18 Refused, 19 Eyewear, 21 Cyanide, 22 Yes men, 24 Roast

MENSA PUZZLE 886: X. A sequence of seven symbols X O X # + $ / starts in the top left corner. If you snake along the grid, it alternates between running fowards and backwards.