Expert Predictions Based on Experience, Professional Hunch

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FEBRUARY 2021 VOLUME 25 • ISSUE 10

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Expert Predictions Based on Experience, Professional Hunch written by RIKI MARKOWITZ Last year was another banner year for the

“And you know job growth is what fuels housing,”

greater Austin real estate market — and not neces-

she noted. The Austin market took a hit early in the

sarily despite the pandemic but rather, seemingly,

pandemic, but jobs started coming back quickly and

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because of it.

by December, we had recovered all but 11,500. Since

EVENT PHOTOS Archives

try, which at this point is almost expected in Cen-

didn’t make a dent in home sales. In fact, Austin is

tral Texas, some of the biggest gains in home starts

adding jobs in professional and business services,

and closings were recorded in the third and fourth

finance and manufacturing, which should get a boost

quarters of the year, long into Covid-19 lockdowns

from the new Tesla Gigafactory set to open later this

BUILDER INVENTORY

and a depression in Texas retail, travel and leisure

year. Another factor is relocation buyers (which is

industries. Even experts were surprised by the

connected to jobs growth). So all of these things help

UP-TO-DATE DAILY EVENTS

rally. Vaike O’Grady, Zonda regional director says,

the Austin metro stay at record starts and closings lev-

“What surprised me about 2020: the first quarter

els throughout the year, says O’Grady, and especially

report in April, I was predicting we’d be down 30

at the end of 2020 when we were “far above where

percent. I was wrong. Third quarter we were up 17

we were the previous four years.”

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While 2020 got off to a good start for the indus-

percent year over year; and that continued into the

Presorted Standard U.S.. Postage PAID Austin, Texas Paid Permit #715

winter months.”

most of the jobs lost were in lower-paying sectors, it

Welcome to The Hollows

Of course, there’s the issue of inventory, which continues to decline. “Practically everything that’s

Since there’s no precedent for the events that

starting is closing — closings are outpacing starts.

unfolded over the past year, most industry forecasters

Homes are selling before they make it to the MLS,”

could really only rely on experience and intuition —

says O’Grady. For the first time ever, we’re at 1.2

in other words, their professional hunch.

months supply of finished vacant homes. It’s the low-

This year’s Home Builders Association of Greater

Brohn Homes - Oaks at San Gabriel

est it’s been in two decades. “There are no spec homes

Austin’s Annual Housing Forecast conference had

out there. If you’re looking for a new home to move

three speakers: event moderator Vaike O’Grady;

into in the short-term, they’re virtually impossible to

Shaun Cranston, director of land development

find.” While there are a lot of new lots being added,

services at Halff Associates; and Mark Sprague, state

including a record number put on the ground at the

director of information capital at Independence Title.

end of last year, it’s just not keeping up with demand.

The event covered three major themes: growth in

According to O’Grady, “It’s the tightest lot supply

residential real estate, the K-shaped recovery in com-

we’ve had since right before the recession in third

Chats with Mission Mortgage pt. 2

ABoR Scholarship Program 2021

“What surprised me about 2020: the first quarter report in April, I was predicting we’d be down 30 percent. I was wrong...” says O’Grady. mercial real estate and the status of Project Connect. Residential A few things are responsible for record set-

quarter of 2006.” When you’re looking for a reason residential real estate prices in Austin keep going up, one answer is low inventory. Markets to watch, says O’Grady, are Georgetown

ting home sales in 2020, says O’Grady. It started the

and Round Rock up north, followed by Leander,

prior year when job growth in Austin was up a lot.

Liberty Hill and Cedar Park to the west. East Austin is

[Forecast continues on page 12]

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