FEBRUARY 2021 VOLUME 25 • ISSUE 10
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Expert Predictions Based on Experience, Professional Hunch written by RIKI MARKOWITZ Last year was another banner year for the
“And you know job growth is what fuels housing,”
greater Austin real estate market — and not neces-
she noted. The Austin market took a hit early in the
sarily despite the pandemic but rather, seemingly,
pandemic, but jobs started coming back quickly and
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because of it.
by December, we had recovered all but 11,500. Since
EVENT PHOTOS Archives
try, which at this point is almost expected in Cen-
didn’t make a dent in home sales. In fact, Austin is
tral Texas, some of the biggest gains in home starts
adding jobs in professional and business services,
and closings were recorded in the third and fourth
finance and manufacturing, which should get a boost
quarters of the year, long into Covid-19 lockdowns
from the new Tesla Gigafactory set to open later this
BUILDER INVENTORY
and a depression in Texas retail, travel and leisure
year. Another factor is relocation buyers (which is
industries. Even experts were surprised by the
connected to jobs growth). So all of these things help
UP-TO-DATE DAILY EVENTS
rally. Vaike O’Grady, Zonda regional director says,
the Austin metro stay at record starts and closings lev-
“What surprised me about 2020: the first quarter
els throughout the year, says O’Grady, and especially
report in April, I was predicting we’d be down 30
at the end of 2020 when we were “far above where
percent. I was wrong. Third quarter we were up 17
we were the previous four years.”
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While 2020 got off to a good start for the indus-
percent year over year; and that continued into the
Presorted Standard U.S.. Postage PAID Austin, Texas Paid Permit #715
winter months.”
most of the jobs lost were in lower-paying sectors, it
Welcome to The Hollows
Of course, there’s the issue of inventory, which continues to decline. “Practically everything that’s
Since there’s no precedent for the events that
starting is closing — closings are outpacing starts.
unfolded over the past year, most industry forecasters
Homes are selling before they make it to the MLS,”
could really only rely on experience and intuition —
says O’Grady. For the first time ever, we’re at 1.2
in other words, their professional hunch.
months supply of finished vacant homes. It’s the low-
This year’s Home Builders Association of Greater
Brohn Homes - Oaks at San Gabriel
est it’s been in two decades. “There are no spec homes
Austin’s Annual Housing Forecast conference had
out there. If you’re looking for a new home to move
three speakers: event moderator Vaike O’Grady;
into in the short-term, they’re virtually impossible to
Shaun Cranston, director of land development
find.” While there are a lot of new lots being added,
services at Halff Associates; and Mark Sprague, state
including a record number put on the ground at the
director of information capital at Independence Title.
end of last year, it’s just not keeping up with demand.
The event covered three major themes: growth in
According to O’Grady, “It’s the tightest lot supply
residential real estate, the K-shaped recovery in com-
we’ve had since right before the recession in third
Chats with Mission Mortgage pt. 2
ABoR Scholarship Program 2021
“What surprised me about 2020: the first quarter report in April, I was predicting we’d be down 30 percent. I was wrong...” says O’Grady. mercial real estate and the status of Project Connect. Residential A few things are responsible for record set-
quarter of 2006.” When you’re looking for a reason residential real estate prices in Austin keep going up, one answer is low inventory. Markets to watch, says O’Grady, are Georgetown
ting home sales in 2020, says O’Grady. It started the
and Round Rock up north, followed by Leander,
prior year when job growth in Austin was up a lot.
Liberty Hill and Cedar Park to the west. East Austin is
[Forecast continues on page 12]
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