RealFin Capital Partners French Elections En Marche! But to where? After Round 2 of the Presidential Debates on Wednesday the 3rd of May, favourite, Emmanuel Macron seems to have taken an unassailable lead in the polls leading up to the decisive French election on Sunday the 7th. The consensus within the international community is for Macron to win, with analysts at AMP even relaying that a “99% likelihood of Macron’s victory” has already been priced into the European equity market. With Macron’s lead in the polls barely dipping below 20 points, it’s difficult to foresee Le Pen overturning the deficit so close to the election, especially on the back of another debate meltdown that left much to be desired and reeked of desperation.
Candidate Policies Summed up; The more “Market Friendly” Emmanuel Macron has campaigned on an economically appealing basis. But why do his pro economic policies put him at the forefront? In a time where a wave of populism has characterised elections of late, Macron’s policies look to give a certain amount of reassurance and maintain “status quo”. Versus the seemingly radical and exclusionary policies being masqueraded as “patriotism” by Le Pen.
MACRON “Progressive vs Conservatives”
VS
LE PEN “Patriot vs The Globalists”
* Remain in EU - Common Asylum Policy
* Referendum on EU Membership
* Cut Corporate Tax (33.3% - 25%) * Centrist * Limit Wealth Tax * Increase Teaching Jobs
* Re-instate Franc, Drop the Euro * Extreme Right Nationalist * Re-insdustrialise and Protectionism * Limit Legal Imigration: 10,000 People p.a
* Shut Down Remainig Coal Plants
* French Flags on all Public Buildings
So Macron wins, then what? Emmanuel Macron’s political affiliation is fascinating, as it does not follow the conventional make up we as South Africans are used to. “En Marche!” which translates to “Forward” or “On the move”, fully encapsulates the renewed vigour he intends to bring to French politics. The 39-year old stands for a new generation of politicians. He’s the kind of leader who calls his own politics “neither left or right.” And that goes for more than just his political views – it speaks to all of what Macron says and does. He rejects labels, stays true to himself and that’s the secret to his success.
Road to a working Majority in Parliament: Because En Marche! Is a MOVEMENT and not a political party, Macron’s centrist policies will need to appeal to both the Socialists on the left, as well as the Republicans on the right who lost out to François Hollande’s Party Socialist in the 2012 election. The Socialists and the Republicans hold 280 and 194 General Assembly seats respectively. Members of the General Assembly are permitted to throw their support behind any policies or bills introduced by movements without compromising or relinquishing their party membership. Having already been endorsed by the likes of Angela Merkel and Barack Obama in the international community, further votes of confidence from Republican leader Francois Fillon, as well as Benoit Hammon on the Socialist side, should see Macron’s movement muster enough support to avoid becoming a “Lame Duck” President.