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Thursday, March 31, 2016
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NEWS IN BRIEF
Syria Russian military operations end as warring parties return to the negotating table
Russian oil company now world’s most profitable
An SU-25 fighter leaves the Khmeimim base in Latakia, Syria, during the Russian withdrawal.
Russia’s Surgutneftegaz has become the world’s most profitable oil company, according to reporting by Bloomberg. The company, which is now more profitable than ExxonMobil and Royal Dutch Shell, has become the only major global player continuing to generate income for investors after the collapse of oil prices. Its net income for the first nine months of 2015 increased by 39.4 percent to total $6.4 billion. In the past 15 months, the dividend yield of the company’s securities reached a record 18.5 percent as other Russian oil companies face a fall in stock returns. The secret of Surgutneftegaz’s success is, not, however, due to any increase in production or sales. The increased value is instead the result of the company’s huge dollar reserves. Over the past 10 years, Surgutneftegaz did not invest its profits in new assets, but simply saved them, managing to accumulate more than $30 billion. Since the company pays dividends in rubles, and the ruble fell by almost 50 percent over the past two years, the company is managing to show a high yield based purely on exchage rate gains.
U.S. carrier Delta Air Lines to resume flights to Russia
Russia’s surprise move earlier this month to scale back its military operations in Syria has provoked debate about the motives behind the operation itself. VLADIMIR MIKHEEV SPECIAL TO RBTH
Moscow’s decision to withdraw its troops from Syrian bases came as a surprise to many Western policymakers, leaving experts and analysts to attempt to explain the logic behind the move. According to an official statement from PresidentVladimir Putin, the pullout of Russia’s main military contingent in Syria was due to the fact that the military had “largely achieved its objectives”and that the stage was now set for diplomats to take over negotiations in an inter-Syrian dialogue to end the five-year-old civil war. The decision to withdraw was made on the first day of a new round of talks, which included representatives from government, rebel and Kurdish forces. “It’s clear that [the talks] should include the whole spectrum of Syrian political forces; otherwise, this cannot claim to be a representative forum,” said Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov, indicating that the Russian military intervention was critical in getting all the parties to the table.
Hidden agenda
Despite these high-level statements, the reason for the withdrawal of troops — as with the instigation of Moscow’s military campaign — remains vague. According to analyst Dmitry Yestafeyev, the withdrawal should not have come as a surprise. Putin“strikes first, something he has admitted on several occasions, but he also always leaves the battle first if it can be done elegantly and without losses,”Yestafeyev wrote in a column for RBTH, adding, “Putin goes to the end only when it concerns Russia’s security or his plausibility as a leader. If such critical interests are not at stake, the Russian president rather easily leaves the process.” Grigory Kosach, a professor at the Russian State University for the Humanities and an expert on the politics of the Arab world, said that the most likely reason for the withdrawal was that the launch of a new round of talks gave Russia the best chance to solidify its position as a power broker in the Middle East. In Kosach’s opnion, Russia, along with the United States, could preside over the partition of Syria, which could be turned into a “federation” with a not-necessarily-unfriendly new regime in Da-
mascus and a Syrian Kurdistan that would be receptive to Moscow’s interests. “Moscow might count on preserving its influence with the authorities that would control two large territories: one stretching from Damascus to Aleppo all along the Mediterranean coast, and the other encompassing the northern regions inhabited largely by the Kurds. That would constitute the ‘prize fund,’ and it would probably suffice,” Kosach said. Ivan Tsvetov, an expert on U.S.Russian relations at St. Petersburg State University, said that the withdrawal was instead intended to show up Washington. “The events around Syria have shown that Russia’s contemporary foreign policy is basically aimed at one single overarching task: to get the approval of the U.S. as an equal partner and thus return to the club of leading world states. By active participation in the Syrian war, Putin was trying to prove to President Obama that the United States couldn’t do it alone without Russia,” Tsvetkov said.
What about ISIS?
Kosach thinks that no matter the outcome of the negotiations, Russian of-
TASS
Experts Question Reasons Behind End of Air Strikes
ficials can find ways to say the operation fulfilled the stated goal of the military intervention — fighting terrorism. “It can be claimed that Russian military involvement prevented the jihadists from grabbing a significant part of Syria,” Kosach said. Tsvetkov, however, disagrees, saying that the withdrawal of Russian forces while ISIS remains in control of large swathes of Syria is an indication that the fight against ISIS is not Russia’s main priority in the Middle East. “The highest-ranking officials and experts have been insisting for months that the goal of Russia’s operation in Syria was the fight with ISIS, and nothing else. Today they either have to admit that they’ve been misleading everyone, or agree with the statement that Russia lost the fight and thus had to leave,” Tsvetkov said. According to Yestafeyev, with the intervention and withdrawal, “Moscow clearly demonstrated to Assad that it supports his fight against ISIS and other terrorist organizations but not his attempts to use Russian military potential to solve the problems of his political survival.” Moscow is not completely abandoning its fight against ISIS in Syria. Russian military service personnel will remain at the Khmeimim airbase in Latakia province and at the naval base in Tartus to“observe ceasefire agreements.” Russia also has voiced its commitment“to coordinating” with the United States the retaking of the rebel strongholds of Raqqa and Palmyra. No matter the outcome of the negotiations, or the debate over Russia’s involvement, with its operations in Syria, Moscow has proved its often-reiterated foreign policy narrative: In the case of regional conflicts in the relative proximity of Russia’s borders, it has the leverage to influence warring parties and set the stage for a settlement.
Defense A range of military hardware will remain at bases at Latakia and Tartus despite the withdrawal
Russian Presence to Remain in Syria Although much of Moscow’s fighting force is being removed from the Middle East, a contingent of tactical weapons and advisers will stay. NIKOLAI LITOVKIN RBTH
On the morning of March 15, the first group of Russian fighters and bombers left Syria en route to their sites of permanent deployment, according to a statement on the website of Russia’s Ministry of Defense. The flights are being carried out in groups led by military transport aircraft (Tu-154 or Il-76), which transport engineers and technicians, as well as material and technical equipment. Pilots fly in such a group until reaching the Russian border, and then head for the airfields where they are permanently deployed. “Of the 60 fighters and bombers, more than half will be withdrawn,
THE NUMBERS
60
military aircraft, including fighters and bombers, were flying from Latakia.
50
percent of Russia’s air forces deployed to Syria will return home.
maybe two thirds,”said Murakhovsky. “At the same time, the number of our troops in Syria will be reduced only slightly; this is necessary to ensure the safety of the permanent Russian military bases at the Khmeimim airfield and the port of Tartus.”
Staying behind
According to Murakhovsky, helicopter units will remain in their entirety to carry out search-and-rescue missions and tactical transportation in
2
Russian military bases will remain, at Tartus and Latakia.
Syria. Russia is also leaving military advisers to help the Syrian leadership in the fight against Islamic State (ISIS) militants. “Russia is leaving its air defense systems in Syria in their entirety — S-400 anti-aircraft missile systems as well as Buk-M3, Tor-M2 and Pantsyr S-1 air defense missile systems,” Viktor Litovkin, a retired colonel and military analyst for Russian news agency TASS, told RBTH. “Also, Russian navy warships will
continue to operate in the eastern part of the Mediterranean, to be rotated in the normal mode,” he said. According to Litovkin, the navy is tasked not only with the control and surveillance of ISIS militants, but also with monitoring NATO warships, which come to the Black Sea with SM-3 and Tomahawk cruise missiles on board. “Moscow is initiating the peace process and following the path of the United States in Afghanistan by leaving its strongholds and their means of defense,” Fyodor Lukyanov, editor-in-chief of Russia in Global Affairs magazine, told RBTH. “The pullout of the ‘combat’ part of the troops is also a signal to President [Bashar al-] Assad that Russia will not always solve Syrian problems in the international arena and that the current regime is now quite capable of independent political action.”
U.S. air carrier Delta Air Lines will resume flights to Russia beginning on May 16, 2016, Russian news agency TASS reported on March 4. “We have scheduled our flight from Sheremetyevo airport beginning on May 16,” said Leonid Tarasov, a company representative in Russia. Delta Air Lines will operate flights on the Moscow–NewYork route on a Boeing 767-400ER leaving from Terminal D at Sheremetyevo Airport. Ticket prices will start at about $450. Delta suspended flights between Russia and the U.S. in December 2015 due to increased costs as a result of the stronger U.S. dollar, a company press release announced at the time.
Syktyvkar dial-a-drone pizzeria enters U.S. market
Dodo Pizza, which was launched in 2011 in the northern Russian city of Syktyvkar and made a name for itself by delivering pizzas by drone, has opened its first outlet in the United States, according to Russian news site RBC Daily. The restaurant, located in Oxford, Ark., has been operating in test mode since Feb. 25, with the official opening scheduled for this month, according to founder Fyodor Ovchinnikov. Planned investment in the first Dodo Pizza restaurant is around $500,000. In the next 10 years, Dodo Pizza intends to open 400 outlets in the U.S.
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