Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean (ECLAC)
Chapter IV
Diagram IV.1 Technological disruption and the new employment environment
Zero marginal cost economy
Industrial Internet
On-demand economy
• New models of digital goods and services production and distribution
• New industrial models and production processes using:
• Very low marginal costs of distribution and duplication
-- Internet-connected machines and sensors -- Robots and machine learning -- Cyberphysical systems
• Business models involving temporary jobs and organizations concluding short-term contracts with self-employed workers
• Production by firms and by consumers
• Complex cognitive capabilities, problemsolving and data analysis, social skills, critical thinking and active learning
• Retraining and improvement of software development and data analysis capabilities
• Basic digital capabilities
Fewer jobs and new capabilities
Fewer jobs
Lower-quality jobs
Source: Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean (ECLAC).
As robots have swiftly become cheaper and more capable, they have been taken up more and more quickly in different industrial sectors and countries, irrespective of local labour costs.32 Technological progress means that manageably sized robots, ranging from industrial robots to stock management robots and those capable of providing services in call centres, can be produced and easily incorporated into the production structure. Combined with their falling cost, this will speed up the incorporation of robots into production processes. In 2015, a welding robot cost US$ 8 per hour, much the same as human labour would cost for the same job in Brazil. It is estimated that costs will similarly equalize in the Mexican manufacturing sector in 2018 (see figure IV.18). Figure IV.18 Brazil and Mexico: average cost of a welding robot and of manufacturing labour, 2015-2032 (Dollars per hour) 12 10 8 6 4 Cost of manufacturing labour in Brazil Cost of a welding robot Cost of manufacturing labour in Mexico 2032
2031
2030
2029
2028
2027
2026
2025
2024
2023
2022
2021
2019
2018
2017
2016
2015
0
2020
2
Source: Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean (ECLAC). 32
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In 2015, 253,748 robots were sold, with demand coming mainly from the electronics, metallurgical and chemical industries and above all the automotive industry, with this last accounting for about 40% of the total. The next strongest source of robot demand after industry was services, which marks a major development given the effects on the labour market. That same year, 41,060 professional services robots were sold, with 46% of them being installed in logistical systems, 27% in defence services, 16% in the agriculture and livestock sectors and 3% in the medical area (International Federation of Robotics, 2016a, 2016b and 2016c).