Rural Property Report Riversedge 27th November 2013
Rural Property Report for Riversedge
Contents List of Figures .......................................................................................................... 3 List of Tables ............................................................................................................ 4 1.
About GrainGrowers ......................................................................................... 5 1.1. Products & Services ................................................................................................. 5
2. Executive Summary........................................................................................... 6 3. Introduction ........................................................................................................ 7 4. Location Information ......................................................................................... 8 4.1. Locality Information ................................................................................................. 8 4.2. Proximity Information............................................................................................... 8 4.3. Soil & Landscape Classification .............................................................................. 9 4.4. Regional Property Characteristics .......................................................................... 9 4.5. Topographic Map 1:250,000 ................................................................................... 10 4.6. Satellite Reference Map ......................................................................................... 12 4.7. Landsat Image ........................................................................................................ 13
5. Rural Commodities .......................................................................................... 14 5.1. Crops ....................................................................................................................... 14 5.2. Livestock ................................................................................................................. 17
6. Climate Charts ................................................................................................. 18 6.1. Seasonal Rainfall .................................................................................................... 18 6.2. Rainfall .................................................................................................................... 22 6.3. Autumn Break ......................................................................................................... 25 6.4. Spring Break ........................................................................................................... 25 6.5. Temperature ............................................................................................................ 27 6.6. Growing Degree Days ............................................................................................ 28
7. Climate Extremes............................................................................................. 29 7.1. Annual Rainfall ....................................................................................................... 29 7.2. Annual Temperatures ............................................................................................. 30 7.3. Temperature Difference ......................................................................................... 31 7.4. Seasonal Temperature Extremes .......................................................................... 32 7.5. Potential Frost Days ............................................................................................... 33 7.6. Heat Stress.............................................................................................................. 34
8. Soil Moisture .................................................................................................... 35 8.1. Soil Moisture Agronomic Thresholds ................................................................... 35 8.2. Historical Soil Moisture Status .............................................................................. 35 1
Rural Property Report for Riversedge 9. Historical Wheat Yield Potential ..................................................................... 38 10.
Biomass Production Profile ........................................................................ 39
10.1. Seasonal Biomass Production Profiles .............................................................. 41
11.
Enterprise Productivity ................................................................................ 43
11.1. Crop Commodity Production ............................................................................... 43 11.2. Seasonal Climatic Conditions.............................................................................. 45
12.
Enterprise Suitability & Productive Potential ............................................ 47
12.1. Seasonal Climate Productivity Rating................................................................. 47 12.2. Crop Production Productivity Rating .................................................................. 47 12.3. Key Indicators for Riversedge ............................................................................. 47
13.
Glossary ........................................................................................................ 48
14.
Other Acronyms ........................................................................................... 49
15.
References .................................................................................................... 50
16.
Disclaimer ..................................................................................................... 51
17.
Contact Us .................................................................................................... 51
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Rural Property Report for Riversedge
List of Figures Figure 1: Topographic map ................................................................................................. 10 Figure 2: Topographic legend ............................................................................................. 11 Figure 3: Satellite reference map ........................................................................................ 12 Figure 4: Landsat image ..................................................................................................... 13 Figure 5: Crop production statistics ..................................................................................... 14 Figure 6: LGA Wheat area and production .......................................................................... 15 Figure 7: LGA Barley area and production .......................................................................... 15 Figure 8: LGA Cotton area and production .......................................................................... 16 Figure 9: LGA Sorghum area and production ...................................................................... 16 Figure 10: Livestock statistics ............................................................................................. 17 Figure 11: Autumn rainfall ................................................................................................... 18 Figure 12: Significant autumn rainfall events ....................................................................... 18 Figure 13: Winter rainfall ..................................................................................................... 19 Figure 14: Significant winter rainfall events ......................................................................... 19 Figure 15: Spring rainfall ..................................................................................................... 20 Figure 16: Significant spring rainfall events ......................................................................... 20 Figure 17: Summer rainfall .................................................................................................. 21 Figure 18: Significant summer rainfall events ...................................................................... 21 Figure 19: 10-year average rainfall...................................................................................... 22 Figure 20: Annual rainfall .................................................................................................... 22 Figure 21: Annual rain days ................................................................................................ 23 Figure 22: Annual rainfall per rain day................................................................................. 23 Figure 23: Monthly rainfall ................................................................................................... 24 Figure 24: Long-term rainfall forecast .................................................................................. 24 Figure 25: Autumn day of break .......................................................................................... 25 Figure 26: Spring day of break ............................................................................................ 25 Figure 27: Ordinal day number............................................................................................ 26 Figure 28: Monthly temperature analysis............................................................................. 27 Figure 29: Monthly temperature rate of change ................................................................... 27 Figure 30: Annual growing degree days .............................................................................. 28 Figure 31: Monthly growing degree days rate of change ..................................................... 28 Figure 32: Largest annual rainfall event .............................................................................. 29 Figure 33: Annual maximum temperature ........................................................................... 30 Figure 34: Annual minimum temperature ............................................................................ 30 Figure 35: Annual min & max temperature difference.......................................................... 31 Figure 36: Day of first and last heat stress .......................................................................... 32 Figure 37: Day of first and last frost..................................................................................... 32 Figure 38: Annual frost days ............................................................................................... 33 Figure 39: Monthly frost days rate of change ...................................................................... 33 Figure 40: Annual heat stress ............................................................................................. 34 Figure 41: Monthly heat stress rate of change .................................................................... 34 Figure 42: Historical plant available soil moisture ................................................................ 35 Figure 43: Historical May soil moisture ................................................................................ 36 Figure 44: Historical October soil moisture .......................................................................... 36 Figure 45: Monthly soil moisture rate of change .................................................................. 37 Figure 46: Historical wheat yield potential ........................................................................... 38 3
Rural Property Report for Riversedge Figure 47: Annual biomass profile ....................................................................................... 40 Figure 48: Winter crop biomass profile ................................................................................ 41 Figure 49: Summer crop biomass profile ............................................................................. 42 Figure 50: Winter cropping productive potential .................................................................. 44 Figure 51: Summer cropping productive potential ............................................................... 44 Figure 52: Winter climate productive potential ..................................................................... 46 Figure 53: Summer climate productive potential.................................................................. 46
List of Tables Table 1: Key indicators.......................................................................................................... 6 Table 2: Locality Information ................................................................................................. 8 Table 3: Proximity Information............................................................................................... 8 Table 4: Soil characteristics .................................................................................................. 9 Table 5: Regional property characteristics ............................................................................ 9 Table 6: Soil moisture agronomic thresholds ....................................................................... 35 Table 7: Commodity variability and productivity................................................................... 43 Table 8: Seasonal climate conditions .................................................................................. 45 Table 9: Seasonal climate productivity rating ...................................................................... 47 Table 10: Crop production productivity rating ...................................................................... 47 Table 11: Key indicators...................................................................................................... 47
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Rural Property Report for Riversedge
1. About GrainGrowers Over the past fifty years, GrainGrowers' has advocated on behalf of the Australian wheat and grain industry leading to valuable outcomes for our individual members and the industry in general. Over the years, GrainGrowers has been part of the growth in scale, technological advancement and profitability of the grains industry. GrainGrowers has grown with the industry to become Australia's largest grain industry body. We are the only grower based, independent, member-based, financially sustainable and technically resourced body. We work in collaboration with grain producers, lobby groups and experts in our industry to deliver industry improving submissions and policies, education and events and products and services with the objective of improving the efficiency, sustainability and profitability of the industry while safeguarding its future.
1.1. Products & Services ProductionWise速 This innovative online crop management tool for rural landholders and advisers helps growers enhance their farm efficiency through access to advanced decision support tools. ProductionWise provides an online paddock and silo record keeping diary in addition to functionality that maps and details paddock and grain storage characteristics, rainfall forecasting and paddock specific soil moisture, APSIM yield modelling, satellite biomass tracking, plus much more.
SprayWise Decisions速 Sponsored by Nufarm, this online system assists rural landholders and contractors to better plan and match the timing of pesticide applications to prevailing local weather conditions. This service provides 1km resolution weather forecasts for your farm out to 14 days through a spray planner diary, meteograms, maps and animations, and allows you to best plan your spray applications for the week ahead.
CottonMap CottonMap is an industry initiative which has been designed to highlight the location of cotton fields. The service is provided free of charge with the purpose of minimising off-target damage from downwind pesticide application, particularly during fallow spraying. The map is a joint collaboration between Cotton Australia, Cotton Research and Development Corporation (CRDC), Grains Research and Development Corporation (GRDC) and Nufarm Australia Limited, developed by GrainGrowers to meet industry needs.
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Rural Property Report for Riversedge
2. Executive Summary This PropertyWise report for the Riversedge property in the Narrabri (A) Local Government Area (LGA) of New South Wales provides an analysis and evaluation of historical climate, production and satellite biometric data. Methods used to analyse the data include trends, annual rate of change, variability, productivity rating, departure from median and percentiles ranked against all other Local Government Areas within Australia. The results from the data analysis show that the Summer season has the highest productivity rating for crop and pasture production and Cotton is the safest crop to grow. Alternatively the safest crop for the Winter season is Wheat. The productive potential indicators for Riversedge are;
Seasonal Climate Productivity Rating* Season Winter Summer
Productivity Rating 0.40 0.63
Major Contributing Factor Low soil moisture rate of change High soil moisture rate of change
Crop Production Productivity Rating* Crop Name Winter Wheat Chickpeas Barley Summer Cotton Sorghum Mung Beans
Productivity Rating
Major Contributing Factor
0.53 0.33 0.31
High yield rate of change Low yield trend Low yield trend
0.61 0.50 0.45
High production rate of change High area variability Low yield trend
*The Productivity Rating is scaled 0-1, 0 = low productivity and 1 = high productivity
Key Indicators for Riversedge This report highlights several key trends and patterns. Section Parameter Seasonal Rainfall Trends Spring Summer Autumn Winter Climate Extreme Trends Growing Degree Days Heat Stress Days Frost Days Potential Wheat Yield Trends Median Yield Direction Variability Table 1: Key indicators
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Value Increasing No Change Decreasing No Change Increasing No Change No Change 3.3 t/ha Decreasing Decreasing
Rural Property Report for Riversedge
3. Introduction This report was compiled on a fee-for-service basis at the request of Max Power to facilitate the evaluation of Riversedge and its potential value as a viable and productive rural enterprise. The report uses a standardised format incorporating maps, tables and innovative graphics to compare the biophysical settings, productive history and prevailing circumstances of Riversedge against other rural enterprises within the Narrabri (A) Local Government Area (LGA). By way of summary, the report: • • • • • • •
• • •
•
Identifies the relevant administrative, physical, biophysical, climatic, production and logistics region within which Riversedge is located Establishes the proximity of Riversedge to the nearest town, regional centre and the distance to significant infrastructure facilities with high agricultural significance Incorporates a 1:250,000 scale topographic map, a satellite reference map and a 25m resolution Landsat image Summarises the size and extent of all rural properties within the Narrabri (A) LGA Summarises the area, yield and production of the major winter and summer crops, sheep, beef and dairy cattle enterprises within the Narrabri (A) LGA Characterises the yield variability, rate of change and productive potential in area and production for major winter and summer crops within the Narrabri (A) LGA Examines the timing, magnitude, seasonality and future trends of key climatic parameters likely to affect productive potential on Riversedge including rainfall, temperature, frost occurrence, heat stress, growing and frozen degree days Assesses the adequacy of plant available soil moisture and resulting impact on seasonal biomass accumulation for cropping and grazing Profiles growing season conditions, biomass profiles and productive potential of winter and summer crops over the last 10 years Evaluates the impact on productive potential of variations in the timing, duration and prevailing seasonal conditions during planting and flowering windows, biomass accumulation, senescence and growing season phases of cropping on Riversedge Identifies key production factors likely to determine enterprise suitability and productive potential of Riversedge
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Rural Property Report for Riversedge
4. Location Information The tables below describe the locality and proximity details of Riversedge.
4.1. Locality Information Feature Administrative State/Territory Statistical Division (SD) Local Government Area (LGA) Physical Drainage Division Catchment Sub-Catchment Biophysical Natural Resource Management Region Natural Resource Management Body Bioregion Sub-Bioregion GRDC Ecological Zone Climate Production Logistics
Climate Zone Class 1 Climate Zone Class 2 ABARES Agricultural Region Grain Port Zone Wheat Receival Zone Nearest Livestock Port
Description New South Wales Northern Narrabri (A) Murray-Darling Namoi-Gwydir Namoi River Namoi Namoi CMA Brigalow Belt South Pilliga Outwash NSW North East/QLD South East Subtropical Moderately Dry Winter North West Slopes & Plains (NSW) Newcastle (Kooragang Is.) Northern NSW Wheat Class Zone Brisbane
Table 2: Locality Information
4.2. Proximity Information Nearest Town Nearest Regional Centre Nearest Major Road Nearest Nature Reserve Nearest Railway Station Nearest Airport Nearest Grain Handling Site Nearest Major River
Feature Name Narrabri, NSW, 2390 Narrabri, NSW, 2390 Kamilaroi Highway Mount Kaputar National Park Culgoora, NSW, 2390 Narrabri Aerodrome, NSW, 2390 Culgoora GrainCorp Namoi River
Table 3: Proximity Information
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Distance 15.9 km (road) 15.9 km (road) 4.4 km (straight line) 30.6 km (straight line) 5.8 km (road) 23.6 km (road) 7.4 km (straight line) 3.9 km (straight line)
Rural Property Report for Riversedge
4.3. Soil & Landscape Classification Parameter Australian Soils Classification Greater Soil Group A Horizon Texture B Horizon Texture Dominant Regolith Class Regolith Description
Physiographic Name Physiographic Material
Value Vertosol Black Earths; Grey, Brown and Red Clays Clays Clays Highly weathered bedrock Thick alluvial deposits: sand, silt & clay; black & some red expansive clay soils. Black soil plains contain deposits of coarse fluvial gravels derived from volcanics & local conglomerates. Upper Darling Plains Alluvial sediments (> 50%), saprolith (< 20%)
Table 4: Soil characteristics
4.4. Regional Property Characteristics The Property Size and Regional Property Characteristics tables display paddock size and characteristics of the rural land holdings for the Narrabri (A) Local Government Area (LGA) which Riversedge is located within. Rural Land Holdings Value Rate of State National Change p.a. Rank Rank (153) (565) th Total area of land within LGA 1,273,802 ha 13 86th Total cropped area 250,098 ha 1,586.10 ha 6th 22nd Total grazing area 361,020 ha -9,924.37 ha 26th 110th Average size of rural holdings 1,273.87 ha 1.51 ha 24th 180th Average cropped area per holding 774.00 ha 24.66 ha 15th 93rd Table 5: Regional property characteristics
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Rural Property Report for Riversedge
4.5. Topographic Map 1:250,000
Figure 1: Topographic map
© Commonwealth of Australia (Geoscience Australia) 2005. The map legend can be found on the following page. Riversedge is located at the centre of the map at co-ordinates -30.26° and 149.66° decimal degrees. The map depicts an area of approximately 1,891km2 (61km E-W by 31km N-S). 10
Rural Property Report for Riversedge
Topographic Map Legend
Figure 2: Topographic legend
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Rural Property Report for Riversedge
4.6. Satellite Reference Map
Figure 3: Satellite reference map Google maps, Australia, sourced 27/11/2013, http://maps.google.com/maps/api/staticmap.
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Rural Property Report for Riversedge
4.7. Landsat Image
Figure 4: Landsat image
© Commonwealth of Australia (Department of Climate Change and Energy Efficiency) 2010. Landsat imagery at 25m pixel resolution acquired during 2009-2010, depicted in pseudo-natural colours. Riversedge is located at the centre of the map at co-ordinates -30.26° and 149.66° in decimal degrees. 13
Rural Property Report for Riversedge
5. Rural Commodities 5.1. Crops The Crop Production Statistics table displays the production statistics for the Narrabri (A) LGA based on the last 10 years of production. Each crop is ranked based on trended area against the respective number of LGAâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s which grow that crop within the Australian cropping belt.
Trended Crop Production Statistics in the Narrabri (A) LGA Crop Type
Winter Crops Wheat Barley Chickpeas Summer Crops Cotton Sorghum Mung Beans
Producers (rank)
Area (ha) (rank)
Yield (t/ha) (rank)
Production (t) (rank)
217 (29/311) 55 (100/289) 48 (10/88)
113,444 (34/311) 15,249 (78/289) 12,713 (8/88)
2.42 (78/311) 2.05 (113/289) 1.80 (23/88)
289,552 (10/311) 31,800 (76/289) 22,751 (10/88)
68 (5/35) 56 (12/91) 11 (10/29)
35,067 (2/35) 16,197 (11/91) 1,279 (10/29)
1.98 (12/35) 3.46 (33/91) 0.48 (27/29)
66,206 (2/35) 57,660 (10/91) 619 (11/29)
Figure 5: Crop production statistics
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Rural Property Report for Riversedge LGA Area & Production Charts The following chart(s) display the two most significant winter crops based on trended area in the Narrabri (A) LGA and are compared against the area and production for all LGAâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s in the Australian cropping belt.
Figure 6: LGA Wheat area and production
Figure 7: LGA Barley area and production
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Rural Property Report for Riversedge The following chart(s) display the two most significant summer crops based on trended area in the Narrabri (A) LGA and are compared against the area and production for all LGAâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s in the Australian cropping belt.
Figure 8: LGA Cotton area and production
Figure 9: LGA Sorghum area and production
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Rural Property Report for Riversedge
5.2. Livestock The Livestock Statistics table below displays the Narrabri (A) LGA statistics for the major livestock classes in Australia. Each livestock class and parameter is ranked against all LGAâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s with the specified livestock class.
Trended Livestock Statistics for the Narrabri (A) LGA
Beef
111,609 (65/446)
Number of Grazing Properties (rank) 432 (43/446)
Dairy
370 (179/238)
27 (114/238)
102 (181/238)
13,387.34 (59/238)
Sheep
117,005 (189/368)
104 (146/368)
1,159 (233/368)
3,460.63 (82/368)
Livestock Class
Total Head (rank)
Figure 10: Livestock statistics
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Average Head per Property (rank) 254 (160/446)
Average Area per Property (ha) (rank) 836.50 (233/446)
Rural Property Report for Riversedge
6. Climate Charts 6.1. Seasonal Rainfall Historical autumn rainfall totals displayed as a departure from the median and a five-year moving average.
Figure 11: Autumn rainfall
Historical autumn count of days receiving greater than or equal to 20mm of rainfall in one single event and a linear rate of change trend line.
Figure 12: Significant autumn rainfall events
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Rural Property Report for Riversedge Historical winter rainfall totals displayed as a departure from the median and a five-year moving average.
Figure 13: Winter rainfall
Historical winter count of days receiving greater than or equal to 20mm of rainfall in one single event and a linear rate of change trend line.
Figure 14: Significant winter rainfall events
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Rural Property Report for Riversedge Historical spring rainfall totals displayed as a departure from the median and a five-year moving average.
Figure 15: Spring rainfall
Historical spring count of days receiving greater than or equal to 20mm of rainfall in one single event and a linear rate of change trend line.
Figure 16: Significant spring rainfall events
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Rural Property Report for Riversedge Historical summer rainfall totals displayed as a departure from the median and a five-year moving average.
Figure 17: Summer rainfall
Historical summer count of days receiving greater than or equal to 20mm of rainfall in one single event and a linear rate of change trend line.
Figure 18: Significant summer rainfall events
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Rural Property Report for Riversedge
6.2. Rainfall Historical 10-year average rainfall displayed as a departure from median and rate of change per annum.
Figure 19: 10-year average rainfall
Historical annual rainfall displayed as a departure from the median and rainfall rate of change per annum.
Figure 20: Annual rainfall
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Rural Property Report for Riversedge Historical annual total of rain days displayed as a departure from the median and rain days rate of change per annum.
Figure 21: Annual rain days
Historical annual rainfall per rain day displayed as a departure from the median and rainfall per rain day rate of change per annum.
Figure 22: Annual rainfall per rain day
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Rural Property Report for Riversedge Historical average monthly rainfall totals and rate of change per annum.
Figure 23: Monthly rainfall
Long-term rainfall forecast based on Global Climate Models (GCM) that have been published in scientific literature and incorporated into CSIROâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s OzClim forecasting system. Three models representing wet, moderate and dry scenarios have been selected.
Figure 24: Long-term rainfall forecast
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Rural Property Report for Riversedge
6.3. Autumn Break Historical autumn day of break and the rate of change in the day of the break. Displays day of year when â&#x2030;Ľ15mm rainfall fell within a 10-day period between 1st April and 30th June. Refer to the following page for a table of Ordinal day numbers.
Figure 25: Autumn day of break
6.4. Spring Break Historical spring day of break and the rate of change in the day of the break. Displays day of year when â&#x2030;Ľ15mm rainfall fell within a 10-day period between 1st October and 10th December.
Figure 26: Spring day of break
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Rural Property Report for Riversedge Ordinal Day Number The ordinal day number is provided as a reference for the Spring and Autumn Break charts. The day number is given in the table relative to a calendar date for non-leap years. Day
Apr
May
Jun
Jul
Aug
Sep
Oct
Nov
Dec
Day
1 1 32 60 91 2 2 33 61 92 3 3 34 62 93 4 4 35 63 94 5 5 36 64 95 6 6 37 65 96 7 7 38 66 97 8 8 39 67 98 9 9 40 68 99 10 10 41 69 100 11 11 42 70 101 12 12 43 71 102 13 13 44 72 103 14 14 45 73 104 15 15 46 74 105 16 16 47 75 106 17 17 48 76 107 18 18 49 77 108 19 19 50 78 109 20 20 51 79 110 21 21 52 80 111 22 22 53 81 112 23 23 54 82 113 24 24 55 83 114 25 25 56 84 115 26 26 57 85 116 27 27 58 86 117 28 28 59 87 118 29 29 88 119 30 30 89 120 31 31 90 Figure 27: Ordinal day number
Jan
Feb
Mar
121 122 123 124 125 126 127 128 129 130 131 132 133 134 135 136 137 138 139 140 141 142 143 144 145 146 147 148 149 150 151
152 153 154 155 156 157 158 159 160 161 162 163 164 165 166 167 168 169 170 171 172 173 174 175 176 177 178 179 180 181
182 183 184 185 186 187 188 189 190 191 192 193 194 195 196 197 198 199 200 201 202 203 204 205 206 207 208 209 210 211 212
213 214 215 216 217 218 219 220 221 222 223 224 225 226 227 228 229 230 231 232 233 234 235 236 237 238 239 240 241 242 243
244 245 246 247 248 249 250 251 252 253 254 255 256 257 258 259 260 261 262 263 264 265 266 267 268 269 270 271 272 273
274 275 276 277 278 279 280 281 282 283 284 285 286 287 288 289 290 291 292 293 294 295 296 297 298 299 300 301 302 303 304
305 306 307 308 309 310 311 312 313 314 315 316 317 318 319 320 321 322 323 324 325 326 327 328 329 330 331 332 333 334
335 336 337 338 339 340 341 342 343 344 345 346 347 348 349 350 351 352 353 354 355 356 357 358 359 360 361 362 363 364 365
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31
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Rural Property Report for Riversedge
6.5. Temperature Historical mean monthly temperature variation and extremes.
Figure 28: Monthly temperature analysis
Historical rate of change in mean monthly temperature since 1955.
Figure 29: Monthly temperature rate of change
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Rural Property Report for Riversedge
6.6. Growing Degree Days Historical annual growing degree day (GDD) totals displayed as a departure from the median and the rate of change in total growing degree days per annum. The base temperature used to calculate GDD is 0째C.
Figure 30: Annual growing degree days
Historical average monthly growing degree days and rate of change per annum.
Figure 31: Monthly growing degree days rate of change
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Rural Property Report for Riversedge
7. Climate Extremes 7.1. Annual Rainfall Historically most significant single rainfall event per annum with rate of change and five-year moving average.
Figure 32: Largest annual rainfall event
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Rural Property Report for Riversedge
7.2. Annual Temperatures Historical annual maximum temperature displayed as a departure from the median, rate of change and five-year moving average.
Figure 33: Annual maximum temperature
Historical annual minimum temperature displayed as a departure from the median, rate of change and five-year moving average.
Figure 34: Annual minimum temperature
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Rural Property Report for Riversedge
7.3. Temperature Difference Historical annual difference between highest maximum temperature (Figure 33) and lowest minimum temperature (Figure 34).
Figure 35: Annual min & max temperature difference
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Rural Property Report for Riversedge
7.4. Seasonal Temperature Extremes Historical annual first and last heat stress day â&#x2030;Ľ30°C and rate of change per annum (see Ordinal Day Number at Figure 27).
Figure 36: Day of first and last heat stress
Historical annual first and last frost day and rate of change per annum (see Ordinal Day Number at Figure 27).
Figure 37: Day of first and last frost
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Rural Property Report for Riversedge
7.5. Potential Frost Days Historical number of potential frost days per annum displayed relative to the median, as a rate of change and as a five-year moving average.
Figure 38: Annual frost days
Historical average monthly frost days and rate of change per annum.
Figure 39: Monthly frost days rate of change
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Rural Property Report for Riversedge
7.6. Heat Stress Historical annual heat stress days ≥30°C displayed as a departure from the median and heat stress days rate of change per annum.
Figure 40: Annual heat stress
Historical average monthly heat stress days ≥30°C and rate of change per annum.
Figure 41: Monthly heat stress rate of change
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Rural Property Report for Riversedge
8. Soil Moisture 8.1. Soil Moisture Agronomic Thresholds The following soil moisture thresholds have been determined for your given location from the localised dominant soil type using the ASRIS national soils database. More details of the soil characteristics can be found in Table 4: Soil characteristics. Parameter Property Average Average Plant Available Water Capacity (PAWC) 158mm Average Readily Available Water (RAW) 87mm Average Soil Rooting Depth 1500mm Average Plant Available Water mid-May 36mm Average Plant Available Water mid-October 38mm Table 6: Soil moisture agronomic thresholds
8.2. Historical Soil Moisture Status Historical daily soil moisture (SM) variability and soil moisture rate of change per annum.
Figure 42: Historical plant available soil moisture
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Rural Property Report for Riversedge Winter Crop Sowing Soil Moisture Indicator Annual average soil moisture in May displayed relative to the median, as a rate of change and as a five-year moving average.
Figure 43: Historical May soil moisture
Summer Crop Sowing Soil Moisture Indicator Annual average soil moisture in October displayed relative to the median, as a rate of change and as a five-year moving average.
Figure 44: Historical October soil moisture
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Rural Property Report for Riversedge Monthly Median Soil Moisture Historical median monthly soil moisture and monthly soil moisture rate of change per annum.
Figure 45: Monthly soil moisture rate of change
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Rural Property Report for Riversedge
9. Historical Wheat Yield Potential Historical potential wheat yield calculation based on the Potential Yield Calculator (PYCAL) model displayed relative to the median, as a rate of change and as a five-year moving average. PYCAL is a water limited, maximum potential yield calculation. It incorporates estimated soil moisture at sowing, growing season rainfall, evaporation losses and water use efficiency inputs to determine the likely wheat yield potential assuming nutrient, pest, weed and disease stresses are managed correctly. It provides a way to assess the impacts of seasonal rainfall changes against potential winter crop production.
Figure 46: Historical wheat yield potential
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Rural Property Report for Riversedge
10. Biomass Production Profile The following chart depicts the variable seasonal conditions and biomass regimes from moderate resolution satellite imagery (LP DAAC, 2011). Calculated from a 10-day (decadal) time step averaged Normalised Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) each year for the specified location back to 2001. It represents a starting point for assessing the overall productive potential of a farm enterprise. It is also a guide to crop and pasture growing seasons, operational management opportunities and constraints.
How to Read the Biomass Charts There are three major components that make up the Annual Biomass Profile chart. Understanding how to read them together is necessary to getting the most out of the chart. Rainfall The chart displays the monthly average rainfall calculated from 1955. Ideally rainfall should peak during the growing season(s) for your location which are defined by the peak(s) in biomass. Biomass (NDVI) The 10th, median and 90th percentile biomass values are calculated from over 10 years of satellite data for the specified location and averaged to profile annual and seasonal farm biomass. Biomass values greater than 0.6 indicate significant crop or pasture ground cover, values between 0.4 and 0.6 indicate early crop growth or sparse vegetation. Values less than 0.4 are indicative of bare ground or stubble. The variations between the 10th and 90th percentile lines indicate the potential seasonal variation between poor and good years. Temperature Max and min temperature probabilities are displayed as indicators of summer and winter cropping windows. For example, the winter sowing window falls between the points where max temp drops below 0.1 and before min temp reaches 0.1. Winter crop senescence begins when max temp increases above 0.1. Flowering should occur when there is neither a risk of max or min temp greater than 0.1.
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Rural Property Report for Riversedge
Figure 47: Annual biomass profile
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Rural Property Report for Riversedge
10.1. Seasonal Biomass Production Profiles
Figure 48: Winter crop biomass profile
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Rural Property Report for Riversedge
Figure 49: Summer crop biomass profile
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Rural Property Report for Riversedge
11. Enterprise Productivity 11.1. Crop Commodity Production The long-term productivity rating is calculated by comparing all available history of statistics for the area, yield and production against all other LGAâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s in Australia. The values are normalised then combined into one indicative Long-Term Productivity Rating. The higher the rating the more suitable and productive the crop is in your LGA.
Commodity Variability & Productivity Rating for Narrabri (A) LGA Area Crop Type
Winter Wheat Chickpeas Barley Summer Cotton Sorghum Mung Beans
Yield
Trend (ha)
Rate of Change (ha/p.a.)
Variability Trend (t/ha)
113,444 12,713 15,249
-335 612 119
0.28 1.50 0.24
35,067 16,197 1,279
-266 215 21
0.31 0.34 0.80
Production Long-Term Productivity Rating (%)
Rate of Change (t/ha/p.a.)
Variability
Trend
Rate of Change (t/p.a.)
Variability
2.42 1.80 2.05
0.04 0.05 0.03
0.35 0.43 0.31
289,552 22,751 31,800
4,399.7 1,154.6 617.4
0.47 1.77 0.46
52.62 33.29 31.38
1.98 3.46 0.48
0.03 0.09 0.00
0.19 0.38 0.45
66,206 57,660 619
458.0 1,908.5 9.0
0.32 0.68 0.93
60.69 49.98 44.57
Table 7: Commodity variability and productivity
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Rural Property Report for Riversedge
Cropping Profile Charts The cropping profile chart(s) show statistics for cropped area, yield and production ranked against all other LGAâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s in Australia, the higher the value the greater the productive potential.
Figure 50: Winter cropping productive potential
Figure 51: Summer cropping productive potential
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Rural Property Report for Riversedge
11.2. Seasonal Climatic Conditions The Seasonal Climatic Conditions table displays a statistical analysis of three indicative climatic parameters. Each climatic parameter is analysed through the summer and winter growing seasons to calculate an overall productive potential rating. The LGA which Riversedge falls within is displayed for reference. Growing Season Rainfall Season
Trend (mm)
Riversedge Winter 276 Summer 363 Narrabri (A) Winter 282 Summer 346
Growing Degree Days
Soil Moisture
Rate of Change (mm/p.a.)
Variability
Trend (째C)
Rate of Change (째C/p.a.)
Variability
Trend (mm)
Rate of Change (mm/p.a.)
Variability
Season Productive Potential Rating
-0.32 0.83
0.39 0.37
3,238 3,791
2.52 1.58
0.04 0.03
48 134
-0.34 3.46
0.48 0.51
0.40 0.63
-0.36 0.24
0.38 0.34
3,150 3,728
2.42 1.51
0.04 0.04
33 85
-0.25 1.96
0.46 0.46
0.39 0.58
Table 8: Seasonal climate conditions
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Rural Property Report for Riversedge Climate Profile Chart The winter and summer climate profile charts below shows statistics for growing season rainfall (GSR), growing degree days (GDD) and soil moisture (SM) normalised to 0-1, the higher the value the greater the productive potential. Your farm is compared against the LGA average it falls within and the nearest neighbouring LGA.
Figure 52: Winter climate productive potential
Figure 53: Summer climate productive potential
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Rural Property Report for Riversedge
12. Enterprise Suitability & Productive Potential The following enterprise suitability and production profile of Riversedge has been generated by quantifying the metrics of two primary enterprise productivity factors.
12.1. Seasonal Climate Productivity Rating Season Winter Summer
Productivity Rating 0.40 0.63
Major Contributing Factor Low soil moisture rate of change High soil moisture rate of change
Table 9: Seasonal climate productivity rating
12.2. Crop Production Productivity Rating LGA Crop Winter Wheat Chickpeas Barley Summer Cotton Sorghum Mung Beans
Productivity Rating
Major Contributing Factor
0.53 0.33 0.31
High yield rate of change Low yield trend Low yield trend
0.61 0.50 0.45
High production rate of change High area variability Low yield trend
Table 10: Crop production productivity rating
12.3. Key Indicators for Riversedge This report highlights several key trends and patterns. Section Parameter Seasonal Rainfall Trends Spring Summer Autumn Winter Climate Extreme Trends Growing Degree Days Heat Stress Days Frost Days Potential Wheat Yield Trends Median Yield Direction Variability Table 11: Key indicators
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Value Increasing No Change Decreasing No Change Increasing No Change No Change 3.3 t/ha Decreasing Decreasing
Rural Property Report for Riversedge
13. Glossary Term
Definition
Australian Soil Classification (ASC) Average Aspect Biomass Biophysical Bioregion Day of Break Decadal Flowering Window
System to characterise soils by material and principal profile The sum of a data set divided by the number of observations The direction in which a slope faces Total volume of plant matter generated by a crop or pasture Information about the physical basis of biological systems Unique association of terrain, soils, climate, flora and fauna First time in a calendar year that daily rainfall ≥15 mm Ten day period at the start, middle or end of a calendar month The ideal period during the year for crops to flower based on frost and heat stress probability o Accumulated days when minimum temperature <2 C o Sum of daily minimum temperatures that are <2 C A mathematical model of the general circulation of a planetary atmosphere or ocean Discrete biophysical regions across the Australian cropping belt Period during growing season between sowing and flowering o Sum of average daily temperatures >0 C during any period Period between sowing and harvest of a crop o o Accumulated days when max temperature ≥30 C or ≥35 C US family of satellites for capturing remote sensing imagery Shire, Municipality or Council for local administration of land Arithmetic average of a data series The middle value in a ranked series of data Parameters or measures of quantitative assessment used for measurement, comparison or to track performance Coherent region of Australia for environmental protection Satellite derived measure of greenness/chlorophyll reflectance on a scale >-1 to <1 Amount and time of seasonal crop or pasture biomass maxima Relationship between physical process, pattern and landscape Measure of soil moisture which is available to plants (mm) Total plant available soil moisture when soil is at field capacity (mm) The ideal period during the year to sow based on frost and heat stress probability Potential Yield Calculator is based on the French & Schultz equation and incorporates soil moisture at sowing, growing season rainfall, evaporation losses and water use efficiency inputs. Productivity or profitability scaled from 0 (low) to 100 (high) Difference in magnitude or direction of a parameter over time The portion of the PAWC instantly available to plants Background level of biomass reflectance in a bare ground scenario Weathered material, including soil, that overlies bedrock Maximum depth of soil that plant roots can potentially explore Period of time in a plant between flowering and maturity Difference in magnitude or direction of a parameter over time Period when heat stress and frost risk probability is <20% Intermediate statistical region for ABS commodity data Smallest statistical region that ABS publishes commodity data Shape and position of surface features within the landscape The current value of a linear trend line Year to year or season to season changes in magnitude
Frost Days Frozen Degree Days (FDD) Global Climate Model (GCM) GRDC Ecological Zone Green Up Growing Degree Days (GDD) Growing Season Heat Stress (HS) Landsat Local Government Area (LGA) Mean Median Metrics Natural Resource Management (NRM) Normalised Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) Peak Biomass Physiographic Plant Available Water (PAW) Plant Available Water Capacity (PAWC) Planting Window Potential Yield Calculator (PYCAL)
Productive Potential Rating Rate of Change Readily Available Water (RAW) Reference Biomass Regolith Rooting Depth Senescence Slope Sowing Window Statistical District (SD) Statistical Local Area (SLA) Topographic Trend Variability
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Rural Property Report for Riversedge
14. Other Acronyms Acronym
Description
ABARES ABS ASRIS BOM CSIRO GRDC MODIS PYCAL USGS
Australian Bureau of Agriculture and Resource Economics and Sciences Australian Bureau of Statistics Australian Soil Research Information System Bureau of Meteorology Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation Grains Research and Development Corporation Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer Potential Yield Calculator (Developed by Department of Agriculture and Food WA) United States Geological Survey
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Rural Property Report for Riversedge
15. References •
Australian Bureau of Meteorology (2013). Daily rainfall and temperature climate data. (Published 1km data has been derived from source point data). Distributed under Creative Commons Licence (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/3.0/au/) © Commonwealth of Australia (Bureau of Meteorology) 2013
•
Australian Bureau of Statistics (2013). (Published LGA data has been derived from source Agricultural Statistics and Census data). Distributed under Creative Commons Licence (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/2.5/au/) © Commonwealth of Australia (Bureau of Statistics) 2013
•
Department of Climate Change and Energy Efficiency (2010) Continental Landsat Mosaic 2010. Distributed under Creative Commons Licence (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/3.0/au/) © Commonwealth of Australia (Department of Climate Change and Energy Efficiency) 2010
•
Geoscience Australia 2005. TOPO-250K RASTER, 1:250,000 scale raster data (DVD). Geoscience Australia: Canberra. This Topographic Map 1:250,000 incorporates Data which is © Commonwealth of Australia (Geoscience Australia) 2005 The Data has been used in Topographic Map 1:250,000 with the permission of the Commonwealth. The Commonwealth has not evaluated the Data as altered and incorporated within Topographic Map 1:250,000, and therefore gives no warranty regarding its accuracy, completeness, currency or suitability for any particular purpose.
•
NASA Land Processes Distributed Active Archive Center (LP DAAC). MODIS (MOD09GQ). USGS/Earth Resources Observation and Science (EROS) Center, Sioux Falls, South Dakota. 2011.
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Rural Property Report for Riversedge
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