Global Dry Bulk Shipping Industry Report: 2013 Edition- Koncept Analytics

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Global Dry Bulk Shipping Industry --------------------------------------------------2013

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One of the most important features of growth in world economies in recent years is the dry bulk shipping market, which constitutes the backbone of international trade. Dry bulk shipping vessels carry iron ore, coal, grains, or other dry materials around the world. The global shipping industry went through tough times during the financial crisis of 2008-2009, but recovered well in 2010 and posted solid growth in 2011. It is expected to continue to grow as the world economy improves and new opportunities are created.

Iron ore, coal and grain are the three main constituents of the dry bulk shipping industry followed by some minor bulk commodities. Iron ore constitutes for the major share in the industry followed by coal. Iron ore, coal and minor bulks have shown a tremendous growth in past years and expected to continue this growth in the coming years. On the other side, grain is expected to witness decline in trade in 2012. The total dry bulk fleet, which comprises four types of vessels: Capesize, Panamax, Handymax, and Handysize; is showing a steady growth on the back of increased new orders and reduced scrapping of dry bulk vessels.

The key trends observed within the industry include shrinking of orderbook as a percentage of fleet and scrapping affecting the industry. There are certain challenges which the industry is facing as of now which mainly includes the act of piracy on ocean going vessels. The major factors which will contribute in the growth of the industry include rise in global steel production, growing worldwide economy and rising global demand for grain and steam coal among others.

The present report offers a comprehensive analysis of the global dry bulk shipping industry with focus on the regional markets including China, Europe and Japan. The competition in the global dry bulk shipping industry is intense with few large players viz. Diana Shipping, Dry Ships, Navios Maritime Holdings and Genco Shipping and Trading. The competitive landscape along with the company profiles of the leading players in the market is discussed in detail.

By combining SPSS Inc.’s data integration and analysis capabilities with our relevant findings, we have predicted the future growth of the industry. We employed various significant variables that have an impact on this industry and created regression models with SPSS Base to determine the future direction of the industry. Before deploying the regression model, the relationship between several independent or predictor variables and the dependent variable was analyzed using standard SPSS output, including charts, tables and tests.

The dry bulk shipping is defined as the transportation of homogenous bulk cargoes by bulk vessels on an irregular scheduled line Global Seaborne Dry Bulk Trade Growth (2007-2012E)

Million Tonnes

The global seaborne dry bulk increased from ……. million tonnes in 2010 to ……. million tonnes in 2011 witnessing a growth of ……..%. The market has grown at a CAGR of ……% for the period spanning 2007-2011. This increase was mainly driven by rapid growth in dry cargo volumes propelled by upbeat container and major bulk trades. Iron ore is expected to have accounted for the highest share of ……% of the global seaborne dry bulk followed by coal which accounted for …….% and grain for ……% in 2012. Other constituents include Bauxite alumina, phosphate and many others.

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012E

Global Seaborne Dry Bulk Trade Breakdown by Commodity (2012E)

 China is the major importer and Australia is the major exporter of iron ore. Indonesia is the largest importer and exporter of thermal coal. Japan is the major importer and Australia is the major exporter of steam coal. Africa is the major importer and USA is the major exporter of grain.

•Industry Developments and trends: -Orderbook as a Percentage of Fleet is Shrinking - Scrapping affecting the industry Market Growth Drivers -Rise in Global Steel Production - Improving Economic Condition - Rising Global Demand for Grain and Steam Coal

Iron Ore

Coal

Bauxite alumina Phosphate

Grain Others

China is the major importer of iron ore as of first quarter of 2011 and also it was estimated that China will remain to be the major importer of the iron ore worldwide in the first quarter of 2012…

Growth in Seaborne Iron Ore Trade (2002-2012E)

Million Tonnes

As of 2011, the seaborne iron ore trade increased from ……. million tonnes in 2010 to ……. million tonnes showing a growth of …….%.

The same registered a CAGR of …….% for the period spanning 2002-2011.

 In 2011, the global dry bulk fleet registered an increase of …..% rising from ……. million DWT in 2010 to …… million DWT in 2011.

The same recorded a CAGR of ……% for the period spanning 20082011.

2012E

2011

2010

2009

2008

2007

2006

2005

2004

2003

2002

 As of 2011, the global seaborne coal trade increased from ……. million tonnes in 2010 to ……. million tonnes in 2011 witnessing a growth of …….%. The same registered a CAGR of …….% for period spanning 2002-2011.

Global Fleet Growth (2008-2012E)

Growth in Seaborne Coal Trade (2002-2012E)

Million Tonnes

Million DWT

)

2008

2002

2004

2006

2008

2010

2012E

2009

2010

2011

2012E

The Global Dry Bulk Shipping Industry is highly fragmented and companies face intense competition. In 2011, the market leader in terms of owing vessels was Navios Maritime…..

Global Seaborne Dry bulk Trade Forecasts (2010-2014F)

Million Tonnes

Dry Bulk Fleet Breakdown by DWT (2012)

Capesize

Panamax

Handymax

Handysize

2010

2011

2012F

2013F

2014F

In 2012, Capesize accounted for……% in 2012 in terms of capacity DWT. The Panamax and Handymax accounted for ……% and …….% respectively in 2012. On the competition front, Navios Maritime, Genco Shipping, Dry Ships and Diana Shipping are the leading companies in the dry bulk shipping industry. Navios Maritime owned fleet around ….. vessels followed by Genco Shipping which owned fleet around …. vessels in 2011.  The global dry bulk shipping industry is likely to grow from ......... million tonnes in 2010 to ........... million tonnes in 2014, at a CAGR of ……….%. Key Issues faced by the respective industry include: Acts of piracy affects ocean-going vessels trading in regions of the world on a large scale .

Note: Market attractiveness is inverse of penetration. Low penetration means high attractiveness and vice-versa

Table of Contents

List of Graphs & Tables

1. Overview List of Charts

1.1 Introduction 1.2 Dry Bulk Vessel Types 2. Dry Bulk Market Overview 2.1 Global Dry Bulk Shipping Market 2.2 Dry Bulk Commodities Market

2.2.1 Iron Ore 2.2.2 Coal 2.2.3 Grain 2.2.4 Minor Bulks 2.3 Dry Bulk Exporting & Importing Regions -Major Importers -Major Exporters 2.3.1 China 2.3.2 Japan 2.3.3 Europe 2.4 Dry Bulk Fleet -Fleet Breakdown -Fleet Utilization 2.4.1 Age Profile 2.4.2 Fleet Growth 2.4.3 Segment Overview -Capesize Dry Bulk Carriers -Panamax Dry Bulk Carriers -Handymax Dry Bulk Carriers -Handysize Dry Bulk Carriers 3. Market Dynamics

Major Dry Bulk Commodities Main Segments of the Bulk Fleet Global Seaborne Dry Bulk Trade Growth (2007-2012E) Global Seaborne Dry Bulk Trade Breakdown by Commodity (2012E) Growth in Global Seaborne Iron Ore Trade (2002-2012E) Growth in Global Seaborne Coal Trade (2002-2012E) Growth in Global Grain Trade (2002-2012E) Growth in Global Minor Bulks’ Trade (2002-2012E) Global Dry Bulk Fleet Breakdown by DWT (2012) Global Fleet Breakdown by Vessel Class by Capacity (2012) Dry Bulk Fleet Utilization (2008-2014E) Dry Bulk Fleet Age Profile (2011) Global Fleet Growth (2008-2012E) Global Fleet Size of Capesize Vessels (2008-2012E) Number of Capesize Vessel Delivered (Jan 2012-Sep 2012) Global Fleet Size of Panamax Vessels (2008-2012E) Number of Panamax Vessel Delivered (Jan 2012-Sep 2012) Global Fleet Size of Handymax Vessels (2008-2012E) Number of Handymax Vessel Delivered (Jan 2012-Sep 2012) Global Fleet Size of Handysize Vessels (2008-2012E) Number of Handysize Vessel Delivered (Jan 2012-Sep 2012) Growth in World Steel Production (2007-2013E) Growth in World GDP (2001-2011) Orderbook to Fleet Ratio (2005-Nov 2012) Total Scrapping by Segment (January 2012-September 2012) Total Dry Bulk Scrapping on Monthly Basis (Jan 2012-Sep 2012) Diana’s Shipping Revenues by Business Segments (2011) Diana Shipping’s Revenues and Net Income (2007-2011) Dry Ships, Inc.’s Revenues by Business Segments (2011) Dry Ships, Inc.’s Revenues and Net Income (2007-2011) Navios Holdings’ Revenues by Business Segments (2011) Navios Holding’s Revenues and Net Income (2007-2011)

3.1 Growth Drivers 3.1.1 Rise in Global Steel Production 3.1.2 Improving Economic Condition 3.1.3 Rising Global Demand for Grain and Steam Coal

3.2 Key Trends 3.2.1 Orderbook as a Percentage of Fleet is Shrinking 3.2.2 Scrapping Affecting the Industry 3.3 Challenges 3.3.1 Acts of Piracy 4. Competitive Landscape 5. Company Profile 5.1 Diana Shipping, Inc. 5.1.1 Business Overview 5.1.2 Financial Highlights 5.1.3 Business Strategies -Expansion through Fleet -Maintaining a Strong Balance Sheet 5.2 Dry Ships, Inc. 5.2.1 Business Overview 5.2.2 Financial Highlights 5.2.3 Business Strategies -Growth through Construction Agreements 5.3 Navios Maritime Holdings, Inc. 5.3.1 Business Overview 5.3.2 Financial Highlights

Genco’s Revenues and Net Income (2007-2011) Global Seaborne Dry Bulk Trade Forecast (2010 – 2014F) List of Tables Seaborne Dry Bulk Importing Regions by Major Bulk (2011) Seaborne Dry Bulk Exporting Regions by Major Bulk (2011) China’s Major Dry Bulk Imports (Q111 & Q112E) Japan’s Major Dry Bulk Imports (Q111 & Q112E) Europe’s Major Dry Bulk Imports (Q111 & Q112E) Leading Dry Bulk Ship Owners (2011) Dependent & Independent Variables (2007– 2011) Correlation Matrix Model Summary – Coefficient of Determination Regression Coefficients Output

5.3.3 Business Strategies -Vessel Ownership & Long-term Chartered-in fleet -Enhance Vessel Utilization 5.4 Genco Shipping & Trading Ltd. 5.4.1 Business Overview 5.4.2 Financial Highlights 5.4.3 Business Strategies -Expansion of Fleet -Maintaining Financial Strength

6. Market Outlook 6.1 Market Forecast 6.2 Forecast Methodology 6.2.1 Dependent and Independent Variables 6.2.2 Correlation Analysis 6.2.3 Regression Analysis

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Koncept Analytics

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