Brief on Federal Cabinet Shuffle - July 26, 2023

July 26, 2023

State of play:

Prime Minister Justin Trudeau announced a sweeping reshuffle of his cabinet on Wednesday, signaling a commitment to reset his government’s political agenda on several key files and position his Liberal party for an election currently set for the fall of 2025 In dropping seven ministers from the cabinet, including several chronic underperformers, Trudeau is reasserting his leadership and making it clear he intends to seek a fourth term

The changes maintain Trudeau’s cabinet at 38 ministers, with seven newcomers replacing those shuffled out With all but eight of the remaining ministers changing jobs, it’s his most significant shakeup since he took office and comes as Trudeau’s Liberal Party has trailed the opposition Conservative Party in every national opinion poll since May.

A shuffle of ministerial staffers who serve as gatekeepers and political advisors will follow With the significant number of ministers leaving the cabinet, over 100 staffers will be in immediate limbo, with others given the opportunity to take the "bridge" and leave Parliament Hill with a severance cheque It will take several weeks for the staffing changes to sort out, beginning with a quiet announcement from the PMO on who will serve as chiefs of staff.

A cabinet retreat is set for Aug 21-23 in Charlottetown, where the new cabinet will realign and chart their policy priorities for the fall setting. The fall sitting of Parliament is set for Sept. 18, however, that date might change if the Prime Minister starts a new parliamentary session with a throne speech A fall economic statement is expected sometime thereafter

Porter O’Brien is your team on the inside

Partner Jordan O’Brien and Senior Associates Brit Mockler and Erin Brandt Filliter are former Parliament Hill staffers who’ve seen shuffles from the inside, and Senior Associate, Tom Bateman, offers a savvy perspective as a former journalist We have gathered our collective insights into the following brief to support our friends and clients.

Our team is ready to help you navigate the often complex machinery of government To learn more about how we can help, please email info@porterobrien.com.

Porter

O’Brien’s

5 hot takes

1 Communication is key

With big issues like the economy, affordability and housing front and centre, and an election in two years or less, the Liberals need Ministers who can effectively communicate with Canadians and this updated cabinet is a reflection of that. We’re seeing those with a good communications track record moving to bigger files and new faces in smaller portfolios.

Sean Fraser to Housing, Infrastructure and Communities: Housing is a pressing issue for many Canadians and recent federal investments haven't got the job done, or at least haven't been perceived to make a difference By putting one of his top performers here, the Prime Minister is looking for both results and credit for those results Turning to Fraser shows that having a top performer is more important than a standalone minister Combining housing with infrastructure completes a job started in the fall of 2021, when responsibility for CMHC moved from Employment and Social Development Canada to Infrastructure Canada.

Pablo Rodriguez on Air Travel and Supply Chain: Consumers are frustrated with the availability and reliability of flights Business is concerned with the fluidity of supply chains. Outgoing minister Alghabra did get results by resolving some strikes that jeopardized parts of Canada’s supply chain, but was seen as too soft on our air sectorespecially compared to his American counterpart Pete Buttigieg. Rodriguez, who took the helm of a combative approach with big tech on C-18, will be called to drive new results on both files as Minister of Transport

2 An election cabinet

This will most likely be the Cabinet that brings the government into the next election, and so the size of the overhaul should be taken as tacit acknowledgement by the Prime Minister that the Liberal Party needs to renew focus on the issues that will define the next campaign

Gender balance: In 2015, the decision to build a gender balanced cabinet got significant attention both here at home and around the world. Today’s new election cabinet follows in that tradition and maintains a roughly equal number of men and women Ministers. We’re unlikely to see the same kind of press coverage for it this time around

Diversity: The topline messaging from this government has for many years been that “diversity is our strength,” and this is another cabinet that looks like Canada. Expect Trudeau and his team to point out the new cabinet includes Canada’s first Ministers of Filipino and Sri Lankan heritage.

Porter O’Brien

The Economic Trio: Chrystia Freeland (Minister of Finance and Deputy Prime Minister), François-Philippe Champagne (Minister of Innovation, Science, and Industry), and Mary Ng (Minister of Export Promotion, International Trade and Economic Development) all maintained their roles and walked into the event at Rideau Hall together, demonstrating a strong and clear message that the government understands the importance of showcasing that they have some of the cabinets most tested and the PM's most trusted Ministers in these roles.

3 Spotlight on Atlantic Canada

As an Atlantic-based firm, we are keenly aware of how Atlantic Canada is represented in the Cabinet, and how this shuffle reflects the relative importance the government places on the four Atlantic provinces Today’s shuffle does not impact the net number of Atlantic Ministers around the Cabinet table, but changes the portfolios of all six existing Ministers, including several notable promotions or additional responsibilities It also indicates the Liberals may know they’re unable to take our region’s 32 seats for granted in the next election.

Sean Fraser (Member of Parliament for Central Nova - Nova Scotia) gets a promotion into a key priority portfolio for the government from Immigration, Refugees and Citizenship to Housing, Infrastructure and Communities

Gudie Hutchings (Member of Parliament for Long Range Mountains - Newfoundland and Labrador) retains the portfolio of Rural Economic Development and gains the file for the Atlantic Canada Opportunities Agency

Dominic Leblanc (Member of Parliament for Beauséjour - New Brunswick) retains Intergovernmental Affairs and gains Public Safety and Democratic Institutions.

Lawrence MacAuley (Member of Parliament for Cardigan - Prince Edward Island) moves from Minister of Veterans Affairs to Agriculture and Agrifood

Seamus O’Regan (Member of Parliament for St John’s South-Mount PearlNewfoundland and Labrador) remains as Minister of Labour and gains the portfolio of Seniors.

Ginette Petitpas-Taylor (Member of Parliament for Moncton-Riverview-Dieppe - New Brunswick) moves to Minister of Veterans Affairs Canada and Associate Minister of National Defence.

Porter O’Brien

4 Cool hands for hot files:

The government is in the midst of tempering many hot issues, some outside of their control, some of their own making These Ministers have their work cut out for them in advance of 2025.

Public Safety: By moving Dominic LeBlanc to this portfolio, Trudeau has placed one of his most trusted ministers in charge of a file that’s caused endless grief over the past few months on topics ranging from Paul Bernardo to foreign interference to gun control.

Climate: Guilbeault retains this portfolio Trudeau and his advisors were reluctant to install Stephen Guilbeault as environment minister two years ago, but they've been impressed by his pragmatism, which is particularly effective when coupled with his status as a whisper to the activist class. The one-two combination of Guilbeault and his technocratic colleague Jonathan Wilkinson, who retains the rebranded portfolio of Energy and Natural Resources, is celebrated at PMO.

Pascale St-Onge to clean up for C-18: Under the new legislation, a six-month clock to negotiate a deal with Google and Facebook and get regulations in place is now ticking C-18, the Online News Act, backed by Canada's largest legacy media organizations, was generally opposed by small community news organizations who rely on social media to spread their stories. The appointment of St-Onge, the former head of an organization that represents community news organizations, is a signal that the government may be planning to walk back the aggressive stance taken by Rodriguez

5 Liberal Leadership Contenders:

While this cabinet shuffle and general consensus supports the idea that Prime Minister Trudeau will be leading this Liberal team into the next election, many will be viewing today’s moves through a future leadership lens

There are a few names that get tossed around regularly, including Melaine Joly, François-Philippe Champagne, and Anita Anand, who have rumoured leadership aspirations and today’s moves could support that. Anand has been moved to a portfolio with little international travel, giving her a potential for more facetime with those that might support a leadership campaign but less profile Joly remains in Foreign Affairs, a high-profile portfolio that, on one hand, keeps her abroad and, on the other, could act as a platform for demonstrating the ability to be a statesperson on the world stage Champagne gets a bit of an edge with a domestic political portfolio with ample license to travel the country and have facetime with a broad cross-section of voters.

Porter O’Brien’s takeaways

Porter O’Brien Partner Jordan O’Brien, who heads the firm’s federal GR practice, said there’s a lot to learn from Wednesday’s moves:

“This is a bold and needed refresh. Trudeau has chosen his best in class and put them where he needs them His message: 'I'm in charge and I'm not going anywhere ’”

Senior Associate Brit Mockler, whose CV includes 10 years working on Liberal campaigns at the federal, provincial and municipal levels, and 2 years time as a ministerial staffer for this government, said:

"Two of the key takeaways from today’s cabinet shuffle are a focus on communications and a recognition of hard work and experience Moving strong communicators to the portfolios that will be front and centre in the coming months including the economy and housing, and putting good performers with bright futures ahead, like Karina Gould and Sean Fraser who have demonstrated strong results in the files, support this conclusion ”

Erin Brandt Filliter, who served on the Hill for over a decade in political offices including in PMO under Prime Minister Stephen Harper and for New Brunswick Minister Keith Ashfield, noted:

“As an Atlantic-based firm, we are keenly keeping an eye on how changes impact our region. This is the cabinet that will bring the government into the next election; choosing to keep or promote all of the existing Atlantic Ministers signals that the government views strong political prospects in Atlantic Canada

“In addition, while we are watching which Ministers land in which portfolios, and the impact that will have on key files, it is important to be aware of senior staff and whether they move with their Minister, stay put in with their departments, or leave altogether. After 10 years in government and coming into the next election, we can anticipate seeing experienced staffers choosing to take their skills out of the grueling political game and making space for younger, but less-seasoned staffers Good Ministers have great teams and that can make or break political fortunes; time will tell if the Liberal machine will be able to maintain the team it needs.”

Porter O’Brien

The Moves:

Newcomers to the cabinet table are:

● Gary Anandasangaree, Scarborough Rouge Park as Minister of Crown-Indigenous Relations;

● Terry Beech, Burnaby North Seymour as Minister of Citizens' Services;

● Soraya Martinez Ferrada, Hochelaga as Minister of Tourism and Minister responsible for the Economic Development Agency of Canada for the Regions of Quebec;

● Ya’ara Saks, York Centre as Minister of Mental Health and Addictions and Associate Minister of Health ;

● Jenna Sudds, Kanata Carleton as Minister of Families, Children, and Social Development;

● Rechie Valdez, Mississauga Streetsville as Minister of Small Business;

● Arif Virani, Parkdale High Park as Minister of Justice and Attorney General of Canada.

The departures are:

● Omar Alghabara from Transport;

● Carolyn Bennett from Mental Health and Addictions;

● Mona Fortier in Treasury Board;

● Dr. Helena Jaczek from Public Services and Procurement;

● David Lametti from Justice and Attorney General;

● Marco Mendocino from Public Safety, and;

● Joyce Murray from Fisheries, Oceans and the Canadian Coast Guard

And changing departments are:

● Anita Anand from National Defence to President of the Treasury Board

● Marie-Claude Bibeau from Agriculture to National Revenue

● Bill Blair from Emergency Preparedness to National Defence

● Randy Boissonnault from Tourism to Employment, Workforce, Development and Official Languages

● Jean-Yves Duclos from Health to Public Services and Procurement

● Sean Fraser from Immigration to Housing and Infrastructure and Communities

● Karina Gould from Families, Children and Social Development to Government House Leader

● Mark Holland from Government House Leader to Health

● Ahmed Hussen from Housing to International Development

● Gudie Hutchings holds Rural Economic Development, adds the Atlantic Canada Opportunities Agency

● Kamal Khera from Seniors to Diversity, Inclusion and Persons with Disabilities

● Dominic LeBlanc keeps Intergovernmental Affairs, loses Infrastructure and adds Public Safety and Democratic Institutions

● Diane Lebouthillier from National Revenue to Fisheries and Oceans, and the Canadian Coast Guard

● Lawrence MacAuley from Veterans Affairs to Agriculture and Agri-food

● Marc Miller from Crown Indigenous Relations to Immigration, Refugees and Citizenship

● Mary Ng keeps International Trade, Export Promotion and Economic Development while losing Small Business

● Seamus O’Regan keeps Labour, adds Seniors

● Ginette Petitpas Taylor from Official Languages and ACOA to Veterans Affairs and Associate minister of National Defence

● Carla Qualtrough from Employment and Workforce Development to Sport and Physical Activity

● Pablo Rodriguez from Canadian Heritage to Transportation

● Harjit Sajjan from International Development to Minister of Emergency Preparedness, Kings Privy Council and responsible of the Pacific Economic Development Agency

● Pascale St-Onge from Sport to Canadian Heritage

● Jonathan Wilkinson, adding Energy to Natural Resources

Holds:

● François-Philippe Champagne in Innovation, Science and Industry;

● Chrystia Freeland as Deputy Prime Minister and in Finance;

● Steven Guilbeault in Environment and Climate Change;

● Patty Hajdu in Indigenous Services and FedNor

● Marci Ien in Women and Gender Equality and Youth;

● Mélanie Joly in Foreign Affairs;

● Filomena Tassi at Federal Economic Development Agency for Southern Ontario, and;

● Dan Vandal at Northern Affairs