Economic Monitor
actual figure for 2011M1-6 expenditure
actual figure for 2011M1-5 revenue
273,144.4
313,344.4
107,925.4
131,649.1
134,513.7
154,883.4
Poland in 2011M5. Official reserve assets increased by EUR1,231 million in April and by EUR1,558 million in March. In 2011M6 official reserve assets amounted to EUR75.3 billion.
2011 budget law target Source: Ministry of Finance
Fig. 15. Government revenue and expenditure, in PLN millions
in inflation if prospects for its return to the target deteriorate. At the end of 2011M6 the zloty traded at EUR3.9866 and USD2.7517 against EUR3.9569 and USD2.7468 in 2011M5. Despite the decision to raise interest rates in 2011M6, the zloty is weakening, which is mainly attributable to the situation on international financial markets. The share of loans denominated in foreign currencies in the newly granted mortgage loans has diminished but the Monetary Council thinks that this share may rise again, consequently reducing the efficiency of the monetary transmission mechanism. In its July 8 document, the Council says that solutions should be adopted to keep the supply of new household loans denominated in foreign currencies in check. The exchange rate of the Swiss frank is on the rise, which in the future may influence demand for loans in this currency. The Council sticks to its position that Poland should enter ERM II and the euro-zone as soon as possible after all legal, economic and organisational conditions have been met. (Source: www.nbp.pl).
In 2011M5 the seasonally adjusted M3 money supply rose by 0.4% compared to the previous month. In 2011M6 the money supply increased by 0.3% month on month. At the same time, growth in this monetary aggregate slowed in year-on-year terms. In 2011M6 the M3 money supply was higher by 7.1% than a year earlier. In 2011M5 the year-on-year increase was by 0.6 pct. points larger. In 2011M5 the seasonally adjusted M1 money supply (latest data) was by 1.0% lower than in 2011M4. The rate of its change in year-on-year terms was 9.3% X :: Polish Market :: 9/2011
and was lower than in the previous month by 4.3 pct. points. (Source: www.stat.gov.pl).
Trends on the Warsaw Stock Exchange Twenty two companies debuted in June 2011 on three markets of the Warsaw Stock Exchange (WSE). At the end of 2011M6, the WIG20 blue-chip index stood at 2,802.01 points, the WIG broad-market index at 48,414.36 points and WIG-BANKI at 6,801.48 points. Compared to 2011M5, the three indices changed respectively by -3.50%, -3.22% and -4.38%. In 2011M1-2011M6 the WIG20 index gained 2.1% and the WIG index 2.3%. In June most of the WSE indices dropped significantly from the previous month, with the WIG-Informatyka down by 6.96%, WIG-Chemia down by 6.71%, WIG-Ukraine down by 6.64% and WIG-Deweloperzy down by 6.44%. Only two indices – WIG-Telekomunikacja and WIGSurowce gained in this period – by respectively 0.06% and 1.13%. (Source: www.gpw.pl).
The drops resulted mainly from the unfavourable situation in the euro-zone and growing prices of raw materials.
Balance of payments Preliminary balance of payments statistics show the outflow of EUR2,078 million from
In 2011M5 the current account was balanced. The balance on current transfers (transfers from the European Union) was positive as was the balance on services. The balance on goods and the balance on income was negative. In 2010M5 and 2011M4 the current account balance had been negative at respectively EUR-938 million and EUR-988 million. The negative balance on goods deteriorated by 35.7% compared to a year before and totalled EUR-980 million. The value of goods exports was estimated at EUR12,157 million, which represented an increase of 20.9% compared to 2010M5. The value of goods imports was estimated at EUR13,137 million, which represented a year-on-year increase of 21.9%. Income from services increased by 60.3% compared to a year earlier, or by EUR105 million, to EUR279 million. The income from services account totalled EUR2,213 million, up by 11.5% compared to 2010M5 and by EUR65 million compared to 2011M4. The expenditure on services account was EUR1,934 million, up by 6.9% year on year and by EUR101 million compared to 2011M4. The balance on income was negative at EUR-963 million against EUR-1,154 million in 2010M5. Receipts on the balance on income totalled EUR547 million and were higher by 28.1% than a year earlier. Expenditure on the balance on income totalled EUR1,510 million, down by 4.5% compared to 2010M5. The balance on current transfers was positive at EUR1,664 million, which represented a year-on-year increase of 117.8%. The balance was largely influenced by transfers from the European Union (EUR1,611 million).Receipts on the balance on current transfers totalled EUR1,974 million and were higher by EUR923 million than in 2010M5. Expenditure on the balance on current transfers totalled EUR310 million and was higher by EUR23 million. In 2011M5 the capital account balance amounted to EUR104 million and was lower by 47.5% than a year earlier. Revenue on the capital account amounted to EUR117 million and was lower by 44.5% than in 2010M5. Expenditure on the capital account amounted to EUR13 million. In 2011M5 the financial account balance amounted to EUR-2,530 million against EUR-