Figure 61: Existing Fixed Transit Routes and Stops – The HOP

Figure 61: Existing Fixed Transit Routes and Stops – The HOP

Source: The HOP

Methodology and Data Sources

In order to map existing transit ridership by stop, the project team obtained ridership counts from The HOP that reflected ridership activity across the fixed route transit system spanning one week in spring of 2019. The total ridership activity (the sum of boardings and alightings) for each stop over the course of the week was mapped in GIS using a heat map visualization. This process depicted which stops along each route had the highest and lowest ridership activity. These heat maps are shown in the Results subsection below.

To identify how much of the market is currently served by fixed route transit, the project team looked at the total population, total employment, and Target Transit Riders (TTR) currently within the service area. To do this, the project team conducted a buffer analysis in GIS using the existing bus stops and demographic/employment data from the US Census Bureau’s 2019 American Community Survey (ACS) and 2018 Longitudinal Employer-Household Dynamics program (LEHD). First, the project team used data on several demographic groups to sum the total TTR population in each block group in the study area. The demographic groups included in TTR population are:

• Population with disabilities • Population with limited English proficiency • Population of minorites • Population aged 65 and older

• Population aged 17 or younger • Population in poverty

These group were included because they are more likely to create demand for transit service. Next, the project team generated a quarter-mile buffer around the existing bus stops in the transit system to represent the assumed maximum distance that most people would be willing to travel by foot or assistive mobility device to reach a transit system access point (bus stop or transfer station). Populations that fall within this buffer are considered to be served by the transit system and populations that fall outside the buffer are considered to be unserved. To estimate the number of TTR served by the existing fixed route transit system, the project team calculated the area (in square miles) of each block group and the area (in square miles) of the buffer to identy what percentage of each block group was covered by the quarter-mile buffer. These percentages were then applied to the total TTR population to estimate how many TTRs are served in each block group. For example, if the quarter-mile buffer covered 50% of a given block group, then the project team estimated that 50% of that block group’s TTR population are currently served by transit. The project team used this same process to calculate the total population served and total employment served.

Transit ridership across the nation took a large hit during the initial onset of the COVID-19 pandemic. Ridership declined drastically in some locations across the country. For example, Houston Metro reported its total ridership was 53.6% lower in December 2020 than compared to the same month 201915 . DART saw a 55% decrease16 in overall ridership from March to June in 2020 alone. The HOP faced similar hardship, with ridership declining by similar numbers. Although transit is expected to recover, the length of time it will take to reach pre-COVID ridership numbers is unknown.

Ridership Analysis

Total Ridership by Existing Routes and Stops

Mapping ridership by stop revealed patterns of the geographic distribution of ridership activity in the study area. The majority of stops that experienced the highest ridership activtity were transfer stations and other major destinations, such as medical facilities, supermarkets, and higher education facilities. Figure 62 through Figure 64 map ridership by stop for each route.

Figure 62 reveals that Route 200’s highest ridership activity occurs at the two extremeties of the route, at the Baylor Scott & White Clinic on Scott & White Drive between Harker Heights and Belton and at Avenue U at 3rd Street in the City of Temple. Confederate/Liberty Park in Belton and the Baylor Scott & White Medical Center in the City of Temple also both experience relatively high ridership for this route. Figure 63 shows that the Temple Transfer Station, the Walmart on Private Drive, and Avenue U at 3rd Street by the VA hospital have the highest levels of ridership for Route 510 in the City of Temple.

15 Source: TTI, April 2021, https://comptroller.texas.gov/economy/fiscal-notes/2021/apr/transit.php 16 Source: Community Impact, July 2020, https://communityimpact.com/dallas-fortworth/richardson/coronavirus/2020/07/08/dart-officials-report-55-hit-to-ridership-since-march/