John Jay Journal of International Affairs, Volume 1, No. 2 (Spring 2022)

Journal of International Affairs

Spring 2022 Volume 1, No. 2 Patrick Henry College

Cover Image by ElvinaK via VectorStock.

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John Jay Journal of International Affairs

Journal of International Affairs

A PUBLICATION OF THE INTERNATIONAL POLITICS AND POLICY PROGRAM OF PATRICK HENRY COLLEGE

VOLUME 1, No. 2 Patrick Henry College | Purcellville, Virginia | www.phc.edu

Spring 2022

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Staff Editor-in-Chief

Research Editor

Ellen J. Fischer

James M. Hodson

Associate Editor

Editor

Valkyrie D. Armstrong

Emma J. Fenton

Publication Editor

Faculty Supervisor

Nicholas A. Storz

Michael L. Haynes, Ph.D.

About Us The Journal The John Jay Journal for International Affairs is published twice during the academic year by the Caspian Project, a student-run organization affiliated with the International Politics and Policy Program of Patrick Henry College.

John Jay John Jay was an American statesman who helped lay the foundation for America’s judicial system and foreign policy in the immediate aftermath of the War for Independence. A key diplomat in the American founding, Jay secured wartime loans to the U.S. government from Spain and was a central negotiator to the Treaty of Paris, which formally conceded the United State’s independence. He would later negotiate the infamous Jay Treaty in 1794 with mixed results. An author of several of the Federalist Papers, Jay’s contributions discuss the dangers foreign influenced posed to the fledgling republic as well as the role of each branch of government in crafting foreign policy. Later, he was appointed the first Chief Justice of the Supreme Court by President Washington, strictly upholding the high court’s political neutrality during his tenure. This journal takes his name in light of these immense contributions and the guiding role he played in pioneering American foreign policy during the nation’s founding.

Copyright © 2022. All rights reserved. Papers published in the journal do not necessarily reflect the view of Patrick Henry Colleges or the Caspian Project. Any correspondence can be directed to:

Patrick Henry College 10 Patrick Henry Circle Purcellville, VA 20132 (540) 338-1776 caspianproject@phc.edu 4

John Jay Journal of International Affairs

TABLE OF CONTENTS 1

Letter from the Editor Ellen J. Fischer

Papers 9

From Communism to Capitalism The Economy of the Czech Republic As Viewed Through Different Economic Systems Elaina Kilker An analysis of the effectiveness of the Czech Republic’s transition from Communism to Capitalism following the dissolution of Czecholsovakia in 1989 and the collapse of the Soviet Union in 1991.

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Rags to Riches A Qualitative Analysis of Singapore’s Political Economy Cana Cossin A study of the factors influencing Singapore’s economic success, finding its unique blend of strategic government intervention and free trade policies is due to strong ideological unity in its citizenry, particularly for economic freedom and limited government.

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The Paradox of Africa COVID-19 and its Impact on Africa Josiah Ssempa Unraveling Africa’s low COVID-19 infection and case rate despite having meager healthcare budgets and highly limited access to lifesaving medical care. This paper also discusses theories on the origins of the COVID-19 virus.

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Is a New Red Dawn Rising?

Ethnic Nationalism, Ethnic Minorities, and Foreign Aggression in Russia and China James Hodson Exploring whether the presence of legacy ethnic minorities will restrain the scope of foreign aggression in states where ethnic nationalism helps drive an increasingly belligerent foreign policy attitude in Russia and China.

Spring 2022

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LETTER FROM THE EDITOR Dear Readers, What a time it is in the world of international politics! Wars in Ukraine, Covid-19, and supply shortages are just a few of the events plaguing our media these past couple of months. We need leaders who understand the conflicts facing our world and able to adequately analyze and execute the best response. That is why I am proud to be offering a second volume of the John Jay Journal of International Affairs. It is a lot of work to bring you a journal well researched and informative on the situations facing our world today, but I am proud of our contributors and hope you walk away having learned something new.

throughout Africa. His main focus is on how Africa was able to maintain low rates of infection despite a poor healthcare system and lack of hygienic living conditions throughout the country. Possible hypotheses for this phenomenon are explored in his essay.

Finally, James Hodson is the author of the last essay who hypothesizes whether a rise in ethnic nationalism in Russia and China is the reason for their growing foreign aggression. He found that in Russia this hypothesis did not hold due but it was more plausible in China. His essay is worth the read as it provides an excellent historical and current analysis of both countries on this topic.

The papers in this volume offer a broad range of topics from an analysis of Covid in Africa to the history of Czechoslovakia’s economy. Each paper offers a historical analysis of their region of topic and the institutions that shaped policies and cultures. As you work your way through the journal, most of our topics range far away from the shores of America. Africa, Europe, and Asia are the countries covered in this volume—the regions garnering the attention of the world in recent months.

A shoutout of thanks must go to my amazing team! Valkyrie Armstrong—you rock; thank you for your administrative help in seeing this volume come to fruition. Nick Storz, all those long hours of copy-editing and reformatting, goodness I cannot thank you enough. James Hodson, we appreciate your dedication and excellent attention to the research conducted throughout each essay. Emma Fenton, it was great to have your insight and work on the team as our editor this semester. Finally, thank you Dr. Haynes for letting us have another Our first essay, written by Elaina Kilker, covers opportunity to publish a journal under your the history of Czechoslovakia as it broke away supervision. from the communist control and the economies that formed as the country split into different This journal volume is dedicated to all of the regions. She analyzes the two different current and future International Politics and economies the region operated under Policy students at Patrick Henry College. Two communism and free-market capitalism. In her years of work have brought you two editions of analysis, she concludes that a capitalist a journal that I hope will be perfected and economy is more beneficial than their former continued by the students of this school. Now sit back, grab a cup of tea, and educate yourself alternative of communism rule. on the international affairs of our world.

Cana Cossin takes us to Singapore to discuss the rise of their economic superpower in the God Bless, world’s eyes. She gives a qualitative breakdown Ellen Fischer of why this country to be one of the most Editor-in-Chief economic and politically stable in Asia. Her Purcellville, VA, April 2022 hypothesis is that Singapore’s success is contributed to its well-blended ideologies and economic policies.

Our third essay is written by Josiah Ssempa who discusses the spread of COVID-19

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John Jay Journal of International Affairs

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John Jay Journal of International Affairs

Source: Prague Morning; https://www.praguemorning.cz/confidence-in-the-czech-economy-grew-to-89-7-points/

From Communism to Capitalism: The Economy of the Czech Republic As Viewed Through Different Economic Systems Elaina Kilker

Abstract In 1989, Czechoslovakia broke away from its communist past, divided into the Czech Republic (Czechia) and Slovakia, and instituted freemarket economies. After thirty years, there are lessons that can be learned from the Czech Republic’s transformation. Did the Czech Republic benefit more from communism or capitalism? This question is explored through the measures of unemployment, GDP, and inflation throughout the communist period and the capitalist period. These measures are then contrasted with those of Slovakia. The impact of the economies on the workplace is also examined. It is concluded that a capitalist economy is more beneficial to a nation than a communist economy. _________________________________

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9

O

n November 17, 1989, a march

price

through

Prague,

convertibility; the creation and reform of financial

Czechoslovakia triggered a revolution

institutions and banking; and foreign trade and

that would alter the course of the

investment” (p. 85). This became the social market

country in a striking way. This march was in

economy (a type of free-market economy) that the

memory of a deceased Czech student at the hands

Czech

of the Germans that were occupying Czech territory

Economist Griffith-Jones (1992) indicates that

fifty years earlier. When the police responded with

“Given the unexpected nature of the revolution, the

violence at the site of the march in an attempt to

time constraints and the differences of opinion

manage the situation, the streets became overrun

within the government, the initial progress of

with outraged citizens. After a month of opposition

reform during the transitional government was

and strikes against the communist government, the

fairly impressive“ (p. 97). The research question is

government was dissolved, and another one was

did the Czech Republic benefit more economically

established with Václav Havel becoming the first

through communism or capitalism? The hypothesis

president

is the Czech Republic has benefitted more

under

the

the

streets

new

of

government

of

Czechoslovakia on December 29, 1989. This “Velvet

liberalization;

Republic

currency

currently

reform

operates

and

under.

economically from capitalism than communism.

Revolution” was a turning point in the history of Czechoslovakia. In late 1992, Czechoslovakia split

into the Czech Republic (Czechia) and Slovakia.

This “Velvet Divorce” was the launching pad for the Czech Republic’s new government and economy (Fawn, 2000, pp. 26-35).

Initially, there was an economic collapse in 1991 in the Czech Republic due to the loss of exports to the Soviet bloc. However, this loss was quickly replaced

Economist Stephany Griffith-Jones (1990) provides

with exports to the European Union. Myant (2007)

context

says,

for

the

communist

government

of

Czechoslovakia to display that,

10

Literature Review

Czechoslovakia was a centrally planned economy, it broadly followed the Stalinist Soviet model, despite differences in initial levels of development; industries and services were nationalised, development of heavy industry was emphasised and trade flows were diverted from West to East. Its economic growth performance was variable, with declining trends over the past twenty years ( p. 4).

The transformation depression, similar to that in other Central East European countries (CEECs), was precipitated by a combination of the collapse in exports to the Soviet bloc and sharp deflationary policies introduced in 1991. It was followed by accelerating growth based on new private enterprise and a reorientation of exports towards Western Europe. The EU took 69% of Czech exports in 1999, compared with 18% for Czechoslovakia in 1989 (p. 432).

From 1990 to 1992, a large shift occurred in the

This access to foreign trade benefited the Czech

economy of Czechoslovakia that would carry into

Republic (Neustadt, 1997, p. 111-113). According to

the foundations of the Czech Republic. According

the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, between 1990

to Fawn (2000), “These include: privatization;

and 1994, the Czech Republic had a relatively low

industrial restructuring; the restructuring of the

unemployment rate when compared to other

workforce, unemployment and labour productivity;

Eastern European nations (Gitter, 1998, p. 32).

John Jay Journal of International Affairs

The economic hardship in countries like the Czech Republic during the transition from a communist economy

to

a

capitalist

economy

was

not

uncommon.

189).

An issue that the capitalist economy encountered was its inability to pay teachers a decent wage despite the overall desire of citizens to attend

In the Eastern bloc nations, it was hoped that the growth of the private sector would be rapid, despite its starting from a rather small base whose ability to absorb workers was thought to be limited. However, as a result of this constraint, in practically all of those countries, the economic transformation was accompanied by high levels of unemployment during the transitional period (Gitter, 1998, p. 31).

higher education institutions. In addition, doctors

Gitter also notes that the Czech Republic had a low

in another. With these low labour costs, the Czech

unemployment rate in comparison to the Eastern

Republic was able to compete on the global market.

Bloc countries but also in relation to the world. He

Myant (2007) says that

sought work outside of their own country due to the long hours and low wages that they received in their nation (Lieb, 2004, p. 7). In addition, Myant

points out that the labour costs were significantly lower than other countries (2007, p. 433). While this was a hardship in one way, it was an advantage

continues by saying

In 2005, with GDP at 73% of the EU average level, productivity, measured as GDP per person working, stood at 67% of the average for the 25 EU members.

Labour costs measured by the exchange rate, the relevant figure for a company investing in the Czech Republic with the intention of exporting, stood at only 2025% of the EU average… Wages, the largest element in labour costs, were around half the level of those in Slovenia, about the same as those for Hungary and Poland and significantly above Slovakia (on 14%) and other post-communist accession countries (p. 433).

Indeed, in 1995, not only was the Czech unemployment rate less than that of every other former Eastern bloc nation, but it was even lower than those of the major European economies and the United States and stood second only to the Japanese unemployment rate, among the rates for 27 member nations of the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) (Gitter, 1998, p. 31).

Although

the

unemployment

rate

was

low,

encouraging the privatisation of the economy in certain sectors was not easy.

By devaluing Czech currency on the international

The privatization of businesses in the Czech

market, while producing a large output, and paying

Republic had a mixed effect. In some ways, it was a

low wages, the Czech government was able to

benefit for the society because not everything was

create a large demand for Czech products while

government run. On the other hand, the quick shift

keeping unemployment relatively low (Gitter, 1998,

and privatisation left an imbalanced society.

p. 33).

Citizens purchased “voucher books” and shares in businesses. This was beneficial because average

Spring 2022

citizens became involved, but it also created

Data and Methods

problems because many were not educated about

A change in economic systems does have an

what they were buying into. Investment companies

impact. It is not a neutral exchange. In order to

would take advantage of citizens who were

understand the impact of a shift in economic styles

uneducated in business by promising large returns

within the Czech Republic, there must be a

on their investments. (Svihlikova, 2011, pp. 188-

quantitative and qualitative study. A comparison of

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the Czech Republic’s economy with the Slovakian

conclusion of this study. It is still included in the

economy after they split also provided an insightful

results section as the available data was collected

look into the success or failure of the Czech

and analyzed.

Republic’s economic transition. Additionally, the practical

application

of

the

economies

was

examined.

Results

For the quantitative measure, unemployment,

To test the hypothesis, the data was studied in

gross domestic product (GDP), and inflation were

several different ways. Both quantitative and

compared. Data was taken from both the period of

qualitative

the communist economy and the current capitalist

quantitative

economy. If the research confirms the hypothesis

unemployment rates, GDP rates, and inflation rates

that the Czech Republic has benefitted more

was

economically from capitalism than communism,

compared to those of Slovakia.

then the more recent unemployment and inflation numbers should be lower than they were under the communist economy and the GDP should rise.

were

methods,

completed.

These

used. a

Among

the

comparison

of

numbers

were

also

Unemployment Unemployment rates before and after the economic switch were used to measure the economic change.

Another measure that was useful when examining

Economist Stephany Griffith-Jones (1992) states

the success or failure of this new economy was to

that in the late 1980s, “Even though growth slowed

compare it to a country with a similar economic

down, given the nature of the economic system,

backround. For instance, when Czechoslovakia

there

split, it produced two similar countries that were

Czechoslovakia even in the 1980s” (p. 93). The

alike despite the ethnic divide. Both transitioned to

term open employment means a person is willing to

a

the

work but there are no jobs available. On the other

their

hand, disguised unemployment is when people are

outcomes, they provide valuable insight into the

employed but they are doing a job that is

success or failure of the Czech Republic's free-

significantly below their skill level so in effect they

market economy. However, it must be noted that

are not employed. Griffith-Jones specifically says,

the two countries are not a perfect comparison due

“open unemployment.” It is reasonable to conclude

to their different ethnic backgrounds and because

that there was disguised unemployment during this

of the large difference in population.

period because if there was complete employment

The qualitative methods used were a comparison of

surely some worked at a job that was below their

free-market

similarities

and

economy.

By

differences

analyzing between

accounts regarding life under the communist economy compared to how life is perceived by people under the current economy.

12

methods

This was

was

no

open

unemployment

in

individual skill levels. Due to it not being open unemployment, there is no way to quantify the rate of unemployment with the communist economy.

paired with historical analysis that takes into

Though there is no way to determine the rate of

account the historical context of the time period.

unemployment under the communist economy, it is

Due to a lack of sources and examples, this

still worth examining the unemployment rates after

measurement will not be factored into the

the switch to a capitalist economy because it

John Jay Journal of International Affairs

demonstrates the prosperity or lack of prosperity of

quarter of 2003 and wages were extremely low.

the new economy. Under the capitalist economy,

Assistant university professors’ starting pay is said

there was unemployment. In the 1990s and on into

to have been “80 percent of the mean national

the early 2000s there was a sharp increase in

wage” (Lieb, 2004, p. 7). In addition, doctors began

unemployment in the Czech Republic. Graph 1

moving out of the Czech Republic due to the low

(Trading Economics, 2021c) indicates this upward

wages and long hours. Lieb says “they might easily

unemployment turn. Written in 1992, Griffith-

make five to eight times more money while working

Jones says “Unemployment has begun to rise. By

fewer hours in Western Europe” (2004, p. 7). The

late 1990 open unemployment, at around 60,000,

Czech Republic did not have an entirely smooth

was only about 1% of the labour force, but during

transition. But, Gitter (1998) marvels at the mostly

1991 it averaged 4%” (p. 96). This number

smooth transition stating that the Czech Republic’s

continued to climb throughout the 1990s. It was

“transformation from a centrally planned economy

not until roughly 2018 (see Graph 1) that the

to a market-oriented one has been accomplished

unemployment rate in the Czech Republic dropped

with substantially lower levels of unemployment

below three percent (Trading Economics, 2021c).

Graph 1: Czech Unemployment Rate

Note: This graph only shows open unemployment. Any disguised unemployment is not reflected.

(Trading Economies, 2021c).

Harvard

than were seen in other Eastern European

International Review, discussed the struggles of the

nations” (p. 31). Overall, it took some time for the

new capitalist economy of the Czech Republic

capitalist economy of the Czech Republic to balance

citing

itself out, but eventually, a low unemployment rate

Doug

Lieb,

that

senior

while

editor

the

of

GDP

the

was

growing,

unemployment was over ten percent in the first

Spring 2022

was achieved.

13

In comparison, in the early 1990s, Slovakia had an open unemployment rate of approximately 14 percent. Around 2002, its unemployment rate hit an all time high of 20 percent. It was not until the late 2010s that the unemployment rate dropped below six percent, an all time low for the country (Trading Economics, 2021e). When compared to the Czech Republic’s open unemployment rate of

less than nine percent in the late 1990s, the two countries are in stark contrast.

Gross Domestic Product Gross domestic product or GDP is another way to measure the economic success of a country. The GDP had been growing steadily in Czechoslovakia leading up to the split into two nations. In 1990, two years prior to the split, the region that would become the Czech Republic had a GDP of 29.8 billion which was a slight decrease. Griffith-Jones (1992) states that

complexities associated with the economic reform. Gross domestic product is estimated to have declined by about 3.5% I n 1990 (p. 95-96).

Myant (2007) asserts that This [GDP] shows the Czech Republic some way behind the advanced countries of Western Europe throughout the twentieth century. Per capita GDP was probably about 57% of the average for EU members in 1990 when compared using Purchasing Power Parity (PPP) (p. 432).

This disparity was short lived.

By 1994, the GDP of the Czech Republic was higher than it had been in 1989, showing a quick rebound of the economy (Graph 2) (Trading Economics, 2021a). As of 2019, the GDP was about five times what it was in 1994. The Czech Republic’s GDP decreased

following

the

separation

of

Czechoslovakia into the Czech Republic and

Slovakia. The major shift in the type of economy resulted in a major disruption in all aspects of the

Graph 2: Annual GDP, Czech Republic

Note: (Trading Economies, 2021a). economy. Despite those radical changes, the GDP At a macroeconomic level conditions worsened somewhat during 1990, mainly as a result of a deterioration in the external environment and the uncertainties and

14

bounced back and grew substantially.

The GDP of Slovakia had a more smooth transition

John Jay Journal of International Affairs

than the Czech Republic. Slovakia appears to have

was a problem in the early years of the Czech

been mainly unaffected by the transition to a

Republic. Prior to the split, Czechoslovakia had

capitalist economy at least in terms of GDP. The

little

GDP remained consistent and gradually climbed

International Economics Department of the World

following the split. There was slow incremental

Bank says,

growth throughout the 1990s and early 2000s before there was significant improvements in GDP (Trading Economics, 2021d). The country did

eventually begin to grow but at a slower pace than the Czech Republic.

Inflation Inflation is a difficult economic construct to balance. Having too much significantly devalues the currency of a nation and can lead to a depression. Conversely, deflation causes prices to fall and can lead to dangerous recessions. A little inflation in the Czech Republic is to be expected and even desired considering the radical shift that occurred from one country into two and from one form of economy into another. However, inflation

inflation.

A

working

paper

from

the

But the extent to which official price indices understand inflationary pressures was not serious in Czechoslovakia, compared with other centrally planned economies. Estimates of hidden inflation for 1985-89 range from 0.5 percent to 2 percent a year in consumer markets and about 3 percent in the industrial sector.

Estimates for suppressed inflation were less than 5 percent (Drabek et al., 1993, p.

2).

When the Czech Republic made its transition to a capitalist economy, major inflation ensued. “In 1990, the average annual rate of inflation was 10 percent for the economy as a whole, with foodstuffs growing at a rate of 11.1 percent, durables by 10.5

percent, catering service by 8.5 percent, and other services by 7.4 percent…” (Drabek et al., 1993, p.

Graph 3: Inflation Rate, Czech Republic

Note: (Trading Economics.com, 2021b)

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19) People began to hoard products which caused

under the communist economy of Czechoslovakia

inflation to increase

significantly. The price

can be found, but an important note that was

increases that were still in effect caused even more

mentioned earlier is that under the communist

problems with the growing rate of inflation. Easing

economy, there was not open unemployment.

inflation was not easy. Drabek explains that

Again, open unemployment means there are people

Generally speaking, 1990 was characterized by first steps to liberalize prices and thus to release inflationary pressures - by removing subsidies and devaluations. Nevertheless, due to the institutional and economic continuation of price controls, suppressed and mainly hidden inflation still survived. It changed dramatically at the beginning of 1991 (Drabek et al., 1993, p. 20).

unlikely that everyone was in the job that suited their skills which means there could have been

disguised unemployment. Everyone was working, but because they were not working at jobs that allowed them to use their skills, it was almost as if they were not working at all.

As the price controls began to be lifted and there

In contrast, there are more recent accounts from

was more economic freedom, there was also less

life under the capitalist economy. Journalist Saša

inflation. “Following the strict fiscal and monetary

Uhlová went undercover in five of the lowest paying

policies, inflation very quickly was brought under

manual jobs in the Czech Republic over a period of

control” (Drabek et al., 1993, p. 21) By 1999, the

six months. She describes the hardships of those

rate of inflation on consumer goods was brought

working in these jobs. Detailing the trials of these

down to 2.14 percent. For the most part, the

workers, she argues that

inflation rate has remained under six percent since 1999 (WorldData, 2021a). The Czech Republic had a rocky start, but the inflation issue was resolved within a relatively short period of time.

Slovakia also had a rough start with inflation rates around 9.9 percent in 1992. It jumped to 23.92 percent in 1993. Some high inflation rates filled the next couple years. By 2009, the inflation rate was

back under control. In 2014, there was even deflation (WorldData, 2021b). The inflation rates have continued to level out since then. Inflation hit the Czech Republic and Slovakia hard initially, but both have balanced out since then.

Workplace Applications

16

willing to work but no open jobs. However, it is

The Czech transformation from state socialism to capitalism is often considered a success, and today all the economic indicators suggest the country is thriving.

But subjective experiences tell a different story. The individual narratives of those in need aren’t presented as systematic problems of an entire society. The achievements of the welfare state were often seen as interchangeable with communism, and trade unions were mocked as relics of the old regime. For years, collective bargaining was practically a swearword. So it became quite common for low wages to be accompanied by blatant violations of the labour code, which employees put up with for fear of speaking up. With the endless repetitions of “everyone’s out for themselves”, Czech society gave up on solidarity (Uhlová, 2018, September 19).

A comparison of real life situations and practical

She continues to explain that despite housing and

applications is also a necessary element to

food only being slightly cheaper than western

determine

has

Europe, a German or Austrian “shop clerk” still

benefitted more under the communist economy or

makes three times more than a Czech shop clerk.

the capitalist economy. Not many accounts of life

Many do not make a living wage and some work 12-

whether

the

Czech

Republic

John Jay Journal of International Affairs

17 hours a day to support their families (Uhlová,

certainty. With that said, based on the numbers

2018, September 19). There are struggles with the

shown in Graph 1, there was a lower rate of

capitalist economy. The examples of how the

unemployment under the communist economy

change in economy has affected the lives of the

than there currently is with the capitalist economy.

working class is a difficult comparison without enough data points. With what examples are available from the capitalist economy, it can be concluded that there are problems with this

economic system. But, there are always problems.

It is not possible to have a perfect economy. There

The contrast between the gross domestic product before the change in economy and after is a stark contrast. The GDP in 2020 was nearly five times higher than the GDP in 1990. That is a significant

improvement.

were problems with the communist economy as

Measurement of inflation is distinct from that of

well. However, it is not a fair assessment because

unemployment or GDP. This is because a good

there is not enough information for either data

measurement of inflation is not the lowest number

points to compare them. This measurement is not

possible or the highest. The best rate of inflation is

factored into the conclusion.

as close to zero but not all the way there. Overall,

The

results

quantitative

of

this

and

quantitative

study

combined

both

qualitative

methods.

The

methods

explored

how

the rate of inflation has gone down significantly over a stretch of time, and it is hovering around three percent.

unemployment, GDP, and inflation all play into the

When Czechoslovakia split in late 1992, it produced

economic success or failure of a nation. Plus, they

two very similar countries. Both transitioned to a

were contrasted to the rates of Slovakia. This data

capitalist economy. Though they were incredibly

shows which kind of economy is most effective for a

similar from the beginning, they had different

nation.

outcomes. For instance, early on the Czech Republic had a comparably low unemployment rate while Slovakia’s soared to 20 percent. In terms of

Conclusion The

GDP, both countries had a slow start, but they both

examination

of

economic

success

is

complicated and multi-layered. This research dives into three core economic measures to determine success or failure, unemployment, gross domestic product,

and

inflation.

Secondly,

it

uses

a

comparison of case studies from a different but

a harder time managing inflation. They have significantly more large changes in inflation rates than the Czech Republic. The two countries have remained somewhat similar in many aspects including economically.

similar country. An analysis of all of these aspects

When comparing the communist economy of the

shows whether a communist economy is more

Czech Republic to the capitalist economy, it can be

beneficial than a capitalist one.

concluded that the capitalist economy was more

In the case of unemployment, while it is likely that disguised unemployment occurred before under the communist economy, it cannot be said with

Spring 2022

improved significantly. Since the split, Slovakia has

beneficial for the country as a whole. First, Graph 1 ultimately shows a lower unemployment rate with

the communist economy; however, by giving people the freedom to decide what is best for them

17

in terms of employment opportunities, there is less potential for disguised unemployment. Second, the gross domestic product rate has soared since the switch in economies. Third, inflation has been reduced, and it has stayed right around three percent. Lastly, when compared to Slovakia, the Czech Republic has produced better economic results overall. This is an important finding because

there has been a recent hard push towards communist and socialist ideas in economics and government.

By

showing

that

a

communist

economy does not produce favorable results in comparison to a capitalist economy, at least in this one particular case, it begs the question: is this the case for other countries as well? Will a capitalist economy always come out on top when compared to a communist system? If that is the case, it may

Fawn, R. (2000). The Czech Republic: A nation of velvet. Amsterdam, Netherlands: The Gordon and Breach Publishing Group.

Gitter, R.J., Scheuer, M. (1998). Low unemployment in the Czech Republic: ‘miracle’ or ‘mirage’?. U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics: Monthly Labor Review, 8, 3137. https://www.bls.gov/opub/mlr/1998/08/ art3full.pdf.

Griffith-Jones, S. (1990). Czechoslovakia’s economic reforms; how can the EC best help sustain them? Institute of Development Studies. https:// www.stephanygj.net/papers/ CzechEcono micReforms HowCan ECSustainThem1990.pdf.

Griffith-Jones, S., & Stevens, C. (Ed.), & Kennan, J., (Ed.). (1992). Reform in eastern Europe and the developing country dimension: Czechoslovakia. Overseas Development Institute. 92-100 https://stephanygj.net/ papers/TheChangesinEastern% 20EuropeCzechoslovakia1992.pdf.

cause some to rethink what they believe is best for

the United States of America. Also, if communism is so beneficial, why did both the Czech Republic and Slovakia abandon communist principles in favor of capitalist ones? These are questions to be explored at a later date.

Lieb, D. (2004). Czech minus: Grading the Republic’s economy. Harvard International Review, 26(2), 7-8. http://www.jstor.org/stable/42762930.

Myant, M. (2007). Economic transformation in the Czech Republic: A Qualified Success. EuropeAsia Studies, 59(3), 431–450. http:// www.jstor.org/stable/20451362.

If further research were to be done related to this topic,

an

examination

into

the

economic

transformations of other Eastern Bloc countries could be useful. Also, non-secondary research into

the effects that the economy has on workers would be valuable. This is a study that could be done with many other countries to determine what is the most

Svihlikova, I. (2011). The Czech Republic: Neoliberal reform and economic crisis. In G. Dale (Ed.), First the transition, then the crash: Eastern Europe in the 2000s (pp. 187-202). Pluto Press.

beneficial economic system overall.

Trading Economics. (2021). Czech Republic GDP. https://tradingeconomics.com/ czech-republic/gdp

References

Trading Economics. (2021). Czech Republic inflation rate. https:// tradingeconomics.com/czech-republic/ inflation-cpi

Drabek, Z., Janacek, K., & Tuma, Z. (1993).

Inflation in Czechoslovakia 1985-91.

International Economics Department of The World Bank. https:// documents1.worldbank.org/curated/ en/56 5961468771718752/pdf/ multi0page.pdf

18

Neustadt, A. (1997). External economic relations of the Czech Republic. Perspectives, 8, 95–113. http://www.jstor.org/stable/44732829.

Trading Economics. (2021). Czech Republic unemployment rate. https:// tradingeconomics.com/czech-republic/ unemployment-rate

John Jay Journal of International Affairs

Trading Economics. (2021). Slovakia GDP. https:// tradingeconomics.com/slovakia/gdp Trading Economics. (2021). Slovakia unemployment rate. https:// tradingeconomics.com/slovakia/ unemployment-rate Uhlová, S. (2018, September 19). If the Czech economy is thriving, why are we so poor? The Guardian. https:// www.theguardian.com/ commentisfree/2018/sep/19/ czech- republictransition-state-socialism- capitalism WorldData. (2021). Development of inflation rates in Czechia. https://www. worlddata.info/europe/czechia/inflationrates.php WorldData. (2021). Development of inflation rates in Slovakia. https://www. worlddata.info/europe/slovakia/inflationrates.php

Spring 2022

19

20

John Jay Journal of International Affairs

Source: Port Technology; https://www.porttechnology.org/news/singapore-tops-maritime-hub-index-for-seventh-year-in-a-row/

Rags to Riches A Qualitative Analysis of Singapore’s Political Economy Cana Cossin

Abstract

Over the past 50 years, the country of Singapore has developed from a low-income country to one of the world’s economic superpowers. Its GDP rates have been among the highest in the world for the past 25 years, and it currently has the highest GDP per capita in all of Asia. It is also one of the most politically stable countries in the world. This study performs a qualitative analysis of Singapore’s major economic policies, exploring how the political economy of Singapore has affected its economic growth and political stability. This study hypothesizes that the primary cause of Singapore’s economic success is its free trade policies and strategic government intervention. This study found that Singapore’s historical adherence to a blend of liberal and socialdemocracy ideology has allowed both its policymakers and citizens to embrace free trade policies and advance limited but strategic government intervention. This has culminated in the political stability and economic success that Singapore enjoys today. _________________________________

Spring 2022

21

O countries

ver the past 50 years, within just a single generation, the countries of Singapore, Taiwan, Malaysia, and Indonesia moved from third-world to

economic

superpowers,

a

transformation that economists call the “East Asian Miracle.” The county of Singapore is particularly interesting because despite only occupying 240

square miles, it has developed into one of the best economies in the world. In addition to its economic prowess, the country has one of the world's most stable and effective political systems. This paper explores the political economy of the country of Singapore in order to understand how the country has developed into the economic and political superpower that it is today.

institutions.”

While there is widespread consensus among scholars as to the definition of political economy, there is disagreement as to how best to analyze the interaction between the economy and politics.

Some scholars believe that a study of political economy is best performed using quantitative analysis and rigid mathematical formulas that

apply the basic laws of microeconomics and macroeconomics to various governments. This is an approach that has gained popularity in the past fifty years and is more often used by think tanks and research colleges who have the resources to gather large amounts of data rather than individual researchers. The Quantitative Political Economy Research Group (QPE), based in the United Kingdom, is the most well-known group to use a quantitative approach to analyzing the political

Literature Review

economy (King’s College London, 2022).

The phrase “political economy” was first used by French economist Antione de Montchrétien in 1615 in

his

“Treatise

on

the

Political

Economy” (Lunghini, 1998). By combining the two words, Montchrétien reflected the prevailing belief that understanding political factors were crucial to determining economic outcomes and economic policymaking (Princeton, 2022). While the modern use of the phrase “political economy” incorporates this historical meaning by studying the interaction between politics and economic outcomes, it is largely defined by its use of the formal and technical tools of economic analysis. This technique incorporates

22

mathematical

modeling

and

Others believe that a country’s political economy can be best understood by analyzing the theoretical tradition preceding and undergirding the current political climate. One widely accepted scholar who uses this approach is business analyst Paul Adler.

He lays out three distinct theoretical traditions that have woven their way into a modern economic theory which can be called the class-based

tradition, the institutionalist tradition, and the rational choice tradition. He traces which of the three traditions a country developed out of, then analyzes the current

economic and

political

institutions in light of that history (Adler, 2009).

conceptualization of optimal action, incentives, and

A third approach, known as the New Political

constraints to understand phenomena and current

Economy approach, blends the historical and

trends

Barry

mathematical elements and merges them with a

Weingast and Donald Wittman (2011) sum it up as

third element—ideology. Research professor and

studying how “the methodology of economics

economist Charles S. Maier (1987) writes that a

applie[s] to the analysis of political behavior and

political economy approach "interrogates economic

(Princeton,

2022).

Economists

John Jay Journal of International Affairs

doctrines to disclose their sociological and political premises [...] in sum, [it] regards economic ideas and behavior not as frameworks for analysis, but as beliefs and actions that must themselves be explained” (pp. 4-6). This approach accounts for the idea that value judgments are inherent in the study of economics. Economists Robert Carson et al. (2015) encapsulate this idea when they write,

“Economics, as a study of human behavior, cannot avoid value judgments. Struggle as it may, economics as a discipline is never free from

Data and Methods This paper uses qualitative analysis to analyze the political economy of Singapore. It uses data collected from the government of Singapore and the U.S. Census Bureau to analyze the Singapore economy. It looks specifically at the legislation and political culture of the country over the past fifty years

to

determine

how

the

government's

intervention and culture of political freedom have impacted Singapore.

ideology” (p. 6). This paper uses this New Political Economy

approach

to

analyze

Singapore’s

economic system.

Barry Carson identifies four core ideologies from which all economic systems stem: liberalism, social democracy, communism, and mercantilism. The Singapore system is a blend of the first two systems—liberalism and social democracy. The liberal position, which originated with Adam Smith in the late 18th century, is anchored in the two basic philosophic ideas that men were rational beings and that they had a natural right to obtain and protect their private property (Barry, 2015).

This system promotes the free market, advocating for very limited government intervention. The second position, social democracy, contends that

the market needs government intervention to protect labor and social welfare provisions. While the liberal dogma spans a wide spectrum of opinions, it boils down to a rejection of the idea that the market is self-regulating and instead claims that government intervention is essential for

Research When

looking

at

the

political

economy

of

Singapore, it is critical first to examine the country’s history to see how the current institutions came to power and the cultural history of its

citizens. The island of Singapore is believed to have been inhabited since 1000 AD. For the next several centuries, eastern countries fought for control over the island until the Europeans gradually took it over between the 16th and 19th centuries. In 1819, British Statesman and Lieutenant Governor of the East Indies, Sir Stamford Raffles, signed a treaty with India, making the small island of onethousand inhabitants a British colony and trading post (Lepoer, 1989). For decades the British colony

thrived as a transmission port for entrepôt or reexport trade. This meant that the island was equipped with ports, storage facilities, and other infrastructure to house large quantities of British goods before they were re-exported (Yap, 2005).

a secure economy. The social democracy position

In 1942, during the middle of World War II, the

contends that “The economy simply requires

Japanese conquered the island of Singapore. When

pragmatic adjustments from time to time to

the Japanese later surrendered to the Allies in

maintain overall balance and to protect particular

1945,

elements in the society” (Barry, 2015).

However, the people of Singapore no longer had

British

troops

reoccupied

the

island.

faith in Britain to defend them from external

Spring 2022

23

threats. This led to a political awakening amongst

on freedom of trade, venture capitalism, and

the people of Singapore and the rise of anti-colonial

incentives requiring people to secure their own

and nationalist sentiments (Lepoer, 1989). In

economic freedom rather than relying upon the

response, Britain began to grant Singapore greater

state.

independence and self-governance. During this time, Singapore’s key political party –the People’s Action Party (PAP) was created. Today, Singapore remains a single-party system, meaning that the

PAP is the nation’s only significant political party.

Upon a unanimous vote by the Parliament of Malaysia in 1965, Singapore was expelled from the federation, and the state we see today—The Republic

of

Singapore—came

into

existence

(Lepoer, 1989).

began to work with policymakers to set up an incentive structure that would encourage foreign top-tier venture capital firms to set up operations

in Singapore (Klingler-Vidra, 2018). The incentive structure was primarily composed of tax incentives and decreased regulations. On the regulatory front, Singapore

allowed

companies

to

set

up

corporations within Singapore’s borders without rebranding—a

process

that

companies

often

Singapore’s merging of the liberal and social

require before a corporation can move to their

democracy ideologies has kept the country from

borders (Lepoer, 1989). They also began offering

retreating

state

tax incentives for these businesses and their

involvement in the economy (Chong, 2007). This is

investors, including tax deductions up to 100

particularly noticeable in the actions of legislatures

percent

during the first few decades of the country’s

investment. They hoped that the incentives would

existence.

bring venture capital managers into Singapore,

from

the

During

policymakers

began

development

the

1980s

intensely

of

and

1990s,

studying

the

of

equity

invested

on

losses

from

encouraging natural-born Singapore citizens to

economic practices of surrounding countries. Tony

build

Tan, former deputy prime minister and president

international businesses and setting up their own

of Singapore, established a Ministerial Committee

venture capital firms (Klingler-Vidra, 2018).

in the early 1990s to research surrounding economies and implement successful policies in

Singapore. In Tan’s words, “The committee's explicit

aim

was

precisely

‘to

encourage

entrepreneurs to commercialize technology to develop another Silicon Valley or Taiwan’” (as cited in Klingler-Vidra, 2018, p. 97). The committee was comprised of twenty-one members. Each of these members made numerous trips “to countries and clusters deemed to have succeeded in this regard, including . . . ‘Israel, Ireland, Scandinavian countries, Germany, and Switzerland’” (Kilingler-

Vidra, 2018, p. 97). The committee members realized that successful economies place emphasis

24

In response to their findings abroad, the committee

their

equity

by

investing

in

existing

In addition to these changes on the international front, policymakers in Singapore also developed

programs

for

Singapore

citizens

aimed

at

promoting fiscal conservatism, self-reliance, and a strong work ethic. The most notable of these programs is the Central Provident Fund (CPF), an adaptation

of

the

American

social

security

program. Under the CPF, every working Singapore citizen opens a compulsory savings account to which both employers and individuals contribute (Klingler-Vidra, 2018). Each year approximately 37% of an individual’s earnings go into the account, which is guaranteed a return of over 2.5%.

Contributions are tax-exempt at the time of deposit

John Jay Journal of International Affairs

and withdrawal. The funds are distributed into

approach to housing. In February of 1960, the

three accounts for an individual to draw from: the

Singapore government established the Housing

ordinary account (for housing needs), the Medisave

and Development Board (HDB) in order to solve

account (for healthcare needs), and the special

the housing scarcity crisis. At the time, the

account (for day-to-day retirement expenses). As of

government “was faced with a largely immigrant

2015, the total amount in these savings accounts

and

was 73% of the country’s GDP—approximately 222

shortage, and insufficient private-sector resources

billion USD (Housing and Development Board,

and capacity to provide adequate solutions” (Phang

2022).

& Helble, 2015, p. 5). The HDB was set up “as a

Notably absent from the Singapore political system is any Beveridgean tax-based welfare system or Bismarckian

contributory

social

insurance—

meaning that welfare is extremely limited, and the government does not provide healthcare. The Singapore government criticizes the high welfare spending that is typical of the Western world. The policymakers of Singapore believe that welfare entitlements undermine family responsibilities and work ethics. In the words of former Prime Minister of Singapore, Lee Kuan Yew, “when people get handouts, whether or not they work harder or better, everybody then works less…it is when people are encouraged to excel by being able to keep a large part of the extra reward earned by their extra efforts that the society as a whole becomes wealthier, and everyone thrives and prospers” (BLAS, 2020). While the Singapore

government is not completely devoid of a welfare system, the state's welfare is almost solely confined

growing

population,

a

chronic

housing

statutory board to provide ‘decent homes equipped with modern amenities for those that needed them’ ” (Teh, 1975, as cited in Phang & Helble, 2015, p.

8). During its first ten years, the HDB built 110,000 housing units. These units were to be sold to citizens on a 99-year basis. When the citizen died or moved out, the unit would then be bought back by the HDB (Housing and Development Board, 2022). In the late 1960s, the government expanded

the program to let citizens use their CPF savings for their HDB homes. Over the next four decades, HDB housing “displaced private housing as low-density shophouses, squatter settlements, and villages were acquired by the government and demolished to make way for high-rise flats” (Housing and Development Board, 2022). Today the program is open to all Singapore citizens and permanent residents. As of 2021, approximately 80% of individuals in Singapore live in HDB housing (Housing and Development Board, 2022).

to the elderly. Government welfare is the last resort. People must exhaust all their resources and then turn to their families and communities before coming to the government for aid. As of 2019, only

The

3% of Singapore citizens received any sort of

government since its independence in 1965 have

government aid, a striking contrast to the United

been pivotal in shaping the country’s national

States, where over 20% of the population receives

identity and culture. Both government officials and

government aid (U.S. Census, 2022 & Housing and

policy analysts believe that the people of Singapore

Development Board, 2022).

have

Another key element of Singapore’s economy is its

Spring 2022

Conclusion policies

more

implemented

trust

in

the

by

the Singapore

country’s

political

institutions because of these policies. (Barry, 2015).

25

The country’s culture of political freedom and the

Drazen, Allan. Political economy. In Political

government policies which promote a beneficial

economy in macroeconomics (pp. 3-19).

interaction

Princeton University Press. https://

between

the

citizenry

and

the

government has made Singapore one of the most

assets.press.princeton.edu/chapters/

successful countries in the world in just a manner

s6819.pdf

of decades

Housing and Development Board. (2022, March 20). Singapore Government Agency

References Adler, P. (2009, December 29). Political economy.

Marshall School of Business—University of Southern California. https:// www.marshall.usc.edu/sites/default/files/ padler/intellcont/Political%20Economy1.pdf.

Barry, C. (2015). Economic Issues Today: Alternative Approaches. Internet Archive.

https://archive.org/details/ economicissuesto0000cars_r6m6/page/6/ mode/2up.

BLAS. (2020, March 17). The Rabbit Hole: The Wit and Wisdom of Lee Kuan Yew. https:// blas.com/the-wit-and-wisdom-of-lky/.

Carson, R. B., Thomas, W. L., & Hecht, J. (2015).

Economic issues today: Alternative approaches. M. E. Sharpe, Inc. https://

archive.org/details/ economicissuesto0000cars_r6m6/page/6/ mode/2up.

Chong, A. (2007, December). Singapore's political economy, 1997–2007: Strategizing economic assurance for globalization. Asian Survey, 47(6), 952-

Website. https://www.hdb.gov.sg/cs/

infoweb/about-us.

King’s College London. (2022, March 20).

Quantitative Political Economy Research Group. https://www.kcl.ac.uk/research/ quantitative-political-economy-researchgroup Klingler-Vidra, R. (2018). Venture capital state: The Silicon Valley Model in East Asia.

Cornell Studies in Political Economy.

London, Cornell University Press.

Lepoer, B. L. (Ed.). (1989). Singapore: A country study. GPO for the Library of Congress. http://countrystudies.us/singapore/.

Lunghini, G. (1998). Political economy and economics. In H. D. Kurz & N. Salvadori (Eds.), The Elgar companion to classical economics. Edward Elgar Publishing Ltd. https://www.researchgate.net/

publication/303372284_Political_Econom y_and_Economics.

Maier, C. (1987). In search of stability: Explorations in historical political economy. Cambridge University Press.

Phang, S. Y. and Helble, M. (2016, March).

976. https://www.jstor.org/

Housing policies in Singapore. (ADBI

stable/10.1525/as.2007.47.6.952?seq=6

Working Paper 559). https:// papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?

abstract_id=2753487.

26

John Jay Journal of International Affairs

U.S. Census Bureau. (2021, November 22). Public assistance data within program income and public assistance. U.S. Census. https:// www.census.gov/topics/incomepoverty/public-assistance/data.html.

Weingast, B. R. and Wittman, D. A. (2011, July).

Overview of political economy: The reach of political economy. In R. E. Goodin (Ed.),

The Oxford Handbook of Political Science.

Oxford University Press. https:// www.oxfordhandbooks.com/ view/10.1093/ oxfordhb/9780199604456.001.0001/ oxfordhb-9780199604456-e-038.

Yap, O. F. (2005). Political economy, citizen power, and the ’Asian Miracle’: Reassessing the dynamics. Lynne Rienner

Publishers, Inc.

Spring 2022

27

28

John Jay Journal of International Affairs

Source: DownToEarth; https://www.downtoearth.org.in/news/africa/why-other-african-countries-need-to-guard-against-south-africa-covid-19-variant-75327

The Paradox of Africa COVID-19 and its Impact on Africa Josiah Ssempa

Abstract This paper seeks to shed light on the virus that has consumed the world's undivided attention for the past three years. This paper is divided into two parts. In the first section, we explore the nature of the SARS-CoV-2 virus (COVID-19), delving into its virology and hypotheses for its origins. Special attention is given to the hypothesis that coronavirus leaked from a lab as well as the consequent reaction to this hypothesis.

The paper then turns to Africa and examines what many scientists have labeled as a “paradox.” This “paradox” refers to the official low infection rates for the SARS-CoV-2 virus that Africa boasts, despite challenges such as underfunded healthcare systems, crowded slums, and absence of running water in many areas. Possible hypotheses for this phenomenon are explored and assessed.

_________________________________

Spring 2022

29

T

hose who observe history often claim that it repeats itself. The outbreak of the deadly

SARS-CoV-2

virus

initially

appeared to be exactly that—another

occurrence of a deadly disease that riddles the globe. This virus differed, however, in its global context. There have been other deadly viruses that have plagued Europe, America, Africa, and the

world. What truly sets the COVID-19 pandemic apart is that this virus not only broke through the western conceptual barrier of being a “nebulousdisease-in-a-foreign-country,” but it drastically affected the way that people live their lives, not

COVID-19 and Africa After having thoroughly discussed the virology, background, and various hypotheses and ensuing responses to the origins of the COVID-19 virus, we return now to the second largest continent in the world in both size and population (Worldometer, n.d.). Africa’s battle with COVID-19, specifically the COVID-19 statistics from the continent, reveals a confounding contradiction. How is it that this bevy of so-called “third-world countries” known as Africa is bearing the burden of Covid-19 better than more technologically advanced countries?

only in the West but in the world. From mask mandates and vaccines in some regions to bans on religious, social, and cultural gatherings in others, the SARS-CoV-2 virus has incredibly altered the

Africa is Dealing With COVID-19 Better Than Other Countries

way life across the globe. Today, many worldwide,

“I cannot stay home from work. If I do not sell my

especially in the West, clamor to return to the

fish, I do not have money to feed my children and

halcyon days before the virus, before masks became

then we will all die.” The words of a Côte d’Ivoire

new limbs attached to our bodies, and when

woman who sells dried fish in her local market

quarantines were a snippet of the past. This paper

illustrates the specter that COVID-19 casts over the

explores the phenomenon of coronavirus at large

health and well-being of Africa (Boone, 2020). This

and then turns to examine why Africa—regarded by

section of the paper explores Africa’s interaction

many as a “backward continent”— is faring better

with COVID-19 analyzing widely debated reasons

than its western counterparts.

for supposed lower COVID-19 rates in Africa, how

COVID-19 occurred against a unique backdrop

never before seen in any other global pandemic.

This backdrop was the expansion of the internet.

underreporting affects the COVID-19 comparison between Africa and the West and assesses the

economic and physical impact of COVID-19.

The internet-connected millions to the quandaries of those halfway across the world gave people an eye into the lockdowns that numerous countries

30

Background in Africa:

enforced and constantly informed one another

An understanding of Africa’s puzzling skirmish

about the seemingly unending restrictions. Thanks

with COVID-19 requires a basic understanding of

to the internet, the crippling loneliness many faced

the current state of African society. In early 2020,

within the confines of their homes and the barrage

Bronwyn Bruton (2020), a senior fellow at the

of information Twitter and Instagram peppered

Atlantic Council’s Africa Center, questioned what

online, no other pandemic in history has been as

COVID-19 meant for Africa; noting the upper-class

far-reaching and as interconnected as COVID-19.

would likely adapt to the virtual lifestyle but

John Jay Journal of International Affairs

forecasted strife for the middle and lower classes.

Interruptions to this cycle result in damage to their

Conditions in Africa

ability to feed themselves and their families. For

Bruton (2020) notes that basic elements of COVID-

many such as the Côte d’Ivoire fish-seller and

19

frequent

Eunice, the stoppage of work that the specter of

handwashing and social distancing are unworkable

COVID-19 stirs up, rather than the actual virus,

for the majority of Africans. This assessment is

may very well prove fatal (Agaba, 2020; Goldbaum

accurate. The Borgen Project reports that while

& Silva, 2021).

preventative

actions

such

as

around one billion people live in slums around the

Spring 2022

to their ability to make it to town centers and work.

globe worldwide. 200 million of those live in

Official numbers indicate lower

overcrowded sub-Saharan African slums where

rates

access to phone service is easier than access to

When the threat of COVID-19 emerged in 2019,

electricity and plumbing (Thelwell, 2020; Parke,

public health experts portended drastic health

2016).

ramifications for Africa. Three years later, however,

The Water Systems Analysis Group at the Institute

these predictions appear flawed and misguided.

for the Study of Earth, Oceans, and Space at the

The Africa Center for Controlled Disease Center

University of New Hampshire concludes that

COVID-19 Dashboard indicates that the total

roughly 64 percent of Africans rely on water that is

number of cases in Africa sit at 11,064,898 million

limited and highly variable (Vörösmarty et al.,

cases as of February 15, 2022 (Africa CDC, 2021).

2005).

Nations

This statistic is encompassed within Africa's 1.2

Environment Program (2014) underscores the

billion population giving the continent a COVID-19

severity of the water crisis facing Africa, projecting

case rate of roughly 4.29% (World Bank, n.d.).

Furthermore,

the

United

that by 2025 nearly half of the African continent is

The rate for African COVID-19 cases is incredibly

expected to suffer from a combination of increased

low when contrasted against other continents.

water scarcity and water stress. Water stress refers

According to The New York Times COVID-19 case

to economic, social, or environmental problems

count tool, per February 15th, The United States

caused by unmet water needs. Lack of supply is

had roughly 78.1 million COVID-19 cases (The New

often caused

by contamination, drought, or

York Times, 2020). This statistic is contained

disruption in distribution (Council on Foreign

within a U.S. population of 329.5 million people,

Relations,

basic

putting the COVID-19 rate in the U.S. at 23.7%

amenities fester in a continent cloaked in extreme

(World Bank, n.d.). Reuters reports that Europe –

poverty.

with current United Nations estimates pinpointing

2006).

These

obstacles

to

The World Bank Blogs notes that 85% of Africans

the population at 748 million people - bears the

live on less than $5.50 a day (Aguilar, 2019). In

largest global weight of 146,956,000 reported

Uganda's landlocked East African country, most of

infections and 2,041,000 reported deaths (Bhatia

its residents, such as Eunice Nabifo, a mother of

et al., 2022).

three who lives in a suburb of Kampala, the

This statistic would give Europe a rate of 19.64%.

nation’s capital, live hand-to-mouth (Agaba, 2020).

Australia has a rate of 10.13% having 2,609,599

Like Eunice, many Ugandan’s livelihoods are tied

infections and 4,732 coronavirus-related deaths

31

reported in the country since the pandemic began (Bhatia et al., 2022). Asia and the Middle East maintain a rate of 2.4%, with a minimum of 109,792,000

overall

reported

infections

and

1,325,000 reported deaths caused by coronavirus (Bhatia et al., 2022). There are 63,203,000 reported infections and 1,628,000 reported deaths caused by the novel coronavirus in Latin America

and the Caribbean present a 9.68% rate due to its 652.28 million population (Bhatia et al., 2022).

Ultimately, when categorized by the lowest number of total cases by region, the order follows: Australia, Africa, Latin America, the Caribbean, United States, Asia, Europe and the Middle East (see Figure 1.1).

Why is COVID-19 not affecting Africa: Possible theories why these numbers are lower The mystery of ostensibly low COVID-19 rates in Africa has baffled scientists and public health experts since 2019. The official statistics establish that Africa bears lower COVID-19 rates than all other regions except Australia, these statistics beg the question, why does Africa appear to possess an apparent advantage when it comes to mitigating the COVID-19 virus? Wafaa El-Sadr, chair of global health at Columbia University, remarked to ABC News late last year, “Africa doesn’t have the vaccines and the resources to fight COVID-19 that

Graph 1

Note: (Figure 1.1) (Data compiled from Reuters World Coronavirus Tracker, NYT Coronavirus Tracker, and Africa CDC)

32

John Jay Journal of International Affairs

they have in Europe and the U.S., but somehow

on younger audiences, with older individuals at

they seem to be doing better” (Cheng & Mutsaka,

heightened risk of death and infection. Africa’s

2021).

young populations have been cited as reasons for

There have been a variety of reasons reported for Africa’s minor increment in infections. The most popular recurring reasons range from an unproven theory on sunlight, the young median age of Africans,

and

the

African

government’s

collaboration and swift preventative responses. We now explore these reasons in turn.

COVID-19 rates is the temperate climate. A study conducted by researchers from the University of Maryland's Institute of Human Virology discovered a link between temperature, humidity, latitude, and the spread of COVID-19 (Sajadi et al., 2020). Africa

is a varying amalgamation of various climates, ranging from the equatorial climate to the tropical wet and dry climate (Encyclopædia Britannica, n.d.). The continent is mostly located in the intertropical zone between the Tropics of Cancer and Capricorn, which is why the high humidity density. Africa has the hottest extended region all year with the hottest summer climate and the duration

(Encyclopædia

Britannica, n.d.). While it is likely that these factors may have contributed to the spread of COVID-19, proponents of this theory tend to credit Africa as “lucky” and discount the other responses the African government levied against COVID-19.

Spring 2022

lower COVID-19 rates, as the science behind the susceptibility of the elderly has been proven (Adams et al., 2021).

Swift Governmental Response low rates is the swift responses of the African

Some advocate that the reason for Africa’s low

sunshine

certain component in the calculus of why Africa has

Another reason that has been posited for Africa’s

Africa’s Climate

longest

the lower rates in the country. This reason is a

nations to address the COVID-19 crisis. African nations such as Zambia, Congo, and Nigeria are no strangers to dealing with infectious diseases. When Ebola hit Africa in early 2013, most African countries had to become proficient in protecting their populations against a virus that was far more

deadly than SARS-CoV-2 (Kortepeter, 2020). Ebola has a fatality rate of 40-60%, while COVID-19 has a fatality rate of 4% (Kortepeter, 2020). While statistically, the contagiousness of COVID-19 has facilitated the loss of more people than Ebola, the fatality of Ebola was a grave concern African countries had to handle. Their continent-wide response

to

this

zika

virus

impeded

the

proliferation of Ebola abroad. Their expertise in dealing with infectious diseases was well utilized

and provided a baseline for their treatment of COVID-19.

African

governments

also

acted

collaboratively and decisively to quickly shut down their borders, with the bulk of African nations enacting highly stringent COVID-19 guidelines

Africa’s Young Median Age

(Wetzel, 2020). Kenya, for example, restricted in-

Africa boasts the youngest population in the world,

person meetings to curb the spread of COVID-19

with a median age of 19 (United Nations

(Obulutsa,

Development Programme, 2017). The continent is

gatherings also due to COVID-19 (Crisis 24, 2020).

also home to the ten youngest populations in the

Ultimately, the measures African governments

world. The SARS-CoV-2 virus has minimal effects

implemented were swift and stringent.

2021).

Egypt

banned

Ramadan

33

home to three of the strongest economies in Africa—have testing rates that are far lower than

Underreporting

their western counterparts. South Africa has

When the dwindling COVID-19 rates are raised,

conducted 54,224 tests per million people, while

observers will often refer to the developing nature

Egypt has conducted 1,317 tests per million people,

of Africa, pointing to less-advanced medical

and Nigeria has conducted 1,504 tests per million

infrastructure and the lack of COVID-19 testing.

people (Chitungo et al., 2020).

These

two

points

undergird

their

main

counterpoint that the official statistics of the African CDC and other agencies arrive at are inaccurate due to the inability of Africans to get tested. Evidence indicates that the official COVID19 infection rates are higher in some places than the official statistics note. A 2021 WHO study found credible evidence to believe that the COVID19 rates that official statistics bore out only captured one out of every seven infections in Africa (World Health Organization, 2021). However, the

veracity of such studies is dubious given the varying nature of each country’s response to COVID-19 and the generalizations that the studies utilize in taking

testing in other continents. The UK has conducted some 266, 500 tests among European countries per million population (Ritchie et al., 2020). In Asia, Iran has conducted 31,360 tests per million population (Ritchie et al., 2020). The USA has conducted 195,072 tests per million population (Ritchie et al., 2020). In South America, Peru has conducted 77,178 tests per million population (Ritchie et al., 2020). Ultimately, this data implies that the Africa CDC head John Nkengasong (2020) explicitly recognized that the official infection count is likely to be an underestimate.

and

The official Africa COVID-19 infection numbers

extrapolating these to all 54 African countries.

from the Africa Center for Controlled Disease

Nonetheless, the objection that underreporting is a

Center COVID-19 Dashboard report that Africa's

phenomenon that affects the official COVID-19

total cases sit at roughly 11 million cases as of

rates is a legitimate concern that we will now

February 2022 (Africa CDC, 2022). If we were to

address.

accept and apply the WHO analysis to this data—

“population

studies”

in

one

country

When examining the official statistics released for COVID-19, it is important to consider that the bedrock of those statistics—the confirmed cases— is contingent on how many people that region has tested. Thus, for precise data, mass testing is essential. According to the Africa CDC, Africa has set a testing target of 8000 tests per million population (Africa CDC, 2020). This adds up to low testing rates for the African continent. Researchers from

the

University

of

Zimbabwe

and

the

University of KwaZulu-Natal in Durban, South Africa, note that South Africa, Egypt, and Nigeria—

34

These numbers are diminutive compared to the

despite concerns regarding its veracity— the

number of infections within Africa is still less than in any other nation besides Australia. Applying the WHO analysis to pertinent data, Africa sits at roughly 60 million transmissions of the SARS-CoV2

virus

(World

Health

Organization

2021).

Elements that would go towards advancing this hypothesis are the crowded nature of the slums in Africa, the lack of running water, and the low vaccination

rate

within

Africa.

Furthermore,

advocates of this theory point to how testing occurs in

symptomatic

people,

but

asymptomatic

individuals spread the virus and drive up the rate of

John Jay Journal of International Affairs

transmissions (The Economist, 2020). However,

substantially mitigate the strife that many suffer.

Africa’s failures with testing are not entirely their

For Eunice, her family had no other food and is

burden, and there have been extenuating limiting

solely reliant on the maize flour.

factors inhibiting their ability to produce tests.

“‘I boil water, and when it is ready I add maize flour to make porridge. That is what we eat for breakfast and supper,’ said the single mother, clutching her youngest child, a toddler, close to her chest. ‘There are about three kilograms left in the bag.

So I don’t know what will happen after.’

‘We are going to die of hunger before this virus even kills us,’ she added” (Agaba, 2020).

Africa’s Struggles with Testing Africa is no stranger to infectious diseases. The continent has battled and addressed deadly

diseases like Ebola and tuberculosis. Despite African countries leveraging their prior expertise with testing for pathogens such as HIV and malaria into proficiency for SARS-CoV-2 testing, testing requires

specific

diagnostic

materials.

The

challenge Africa faces is that these materials—such as

specific

reagents—are

unavailable

despite

African nations having the funds. As Kavanagh et al. (2020) detailed in The Lancet, as the demand for the components used to make tests has

increased, richer and more powerful countries have pushed African countries out of the market to add to their own stockpiles despite African countries having the funds to buy ingredients. Nkengasong (2020) laments that lack of access to diagnostics is “Africa’s Achilles heel” and that it is in the interests of wealthier countries to reserve some fraction of these supplies for export as it would cut their own risk that the disease will be reintroduced.

The Ugandan government’s food distribution was a measure being taken in lockstep with Uganda’s stringent COVID-19 policies. Under the regime of incumbent President Yoweri Museveni, from 20202022,

drastic

preventative

measures

were

instituted. From March 18, 2020 onwards, all Ugandan educational institutions were closed, and all social, political, and cultural gatherings were suspended indefinitely; all this occurring before the country had yet to register a single coronavirus case (Museveni, 2020). These restrictions were difficult for people like Eunice, but she was not the only one. According to the World Food Program, the United Nations' anti-hunger agency, an estimated 270 million people are expected to face fatal food shortages this year, up from 150 million before the pandemic. According to the analysis, the amount of

people on the verge of famine, the most severe stage of a hunger crisis, has risen to 41 million from

The Real Killer: COVID-19 or Poverty?

34 million last year (United Nations World Food Programme, 2021)

We return to Eunice Nabifo— a mother of three who lives in a suburb in the Ugandan capital, Kampala. The Ugandan government understood the plight of the urban poor and began distributing maize (corn) flour and beans to vulnerable people affected by the lockdown, such as families led by

children, people living with HIV, and the elderly.

While

Spring 2022

beneficial,

these

measures

do

not

The Mystery of Malawi Africa, however, continues to mystify the scientific community at large. Emerging research from studies conducted in Malawi, South Africa, and Uganda

in

2022

have

revealed

a

striking

phenomenon. Africans in these countries were all

35

infected with the omicron variant before it officially

North Carolina at Charlotte, examined reinfection

emerged. Lead researcher, Kondwani Jambo of the

and

Malawi-Liverpool-

Clinical

coronaviruses, including those responsible for

Research Programme, was shocked at the findings

common colds, Middle East Respiratory Syndrome,

of the Malawi study and suggests that the country

and COVID-19. The researchers used evolutionary

has reached the endemic stage of the pandemic

principles to simulate how natural immunity to

where the virus attains a predictable status—much

COVID-19 fades over time (Greenwood, 2021).

like the seasonal flu (Aizenman, 2022).

Their

Wellcome

Trust

A report by NPR reveals that Jambo’s research is substantiated by top scientists in Africa who also report similar results in Kenya, Madagascar, and South Africa. The bottom line is that there is a “very high prevalence of infection detected well before the arrival of the omicron variant” (Aizenman,

immunological

studies

data

determined

from

that,

various

in

areas

where COVID-19 is endemic, reinfection would most likely occur between three and sixty-three months after a person's peak antibody response, with a median of 16 months (Townsend, 2021).

These findings present an optimistic outlook on the future of COVID-19 in Africa.

2022). Jambo hypothesizes that the reason for this immunity is African’s resistance to severe disease due to prior exposure to the earlier variants

Conclusion

(Aizenman, 2022). Another potential reason this

This paper has gone over the origins of COVID-19

resistance could exist is the high levels of malaria in

and has explored the impact of COVID-19 in Africa.

Africa. Researchers in Uganda found COVID-19

It is evident there is something unique about

patients with a high rate of malaria exposure were

Africa. Despite doomsday predictions of mass

less likely to develop severe disease or die than

death and infection, its initial response to COVID-

people with no history of the disease (Cheng &

19 and current news that some countries may have

Mutsaka, 2021). Jane Achan, a senior research

reached endemicity have amazed and puzzled the

advisor at the Malaria Consortium and a co-author

world. Of the hypotheses examined, none present

of the study, suggested that previous malaria

overwhelming evidence that refutably point to a

infection could "blunt" people's immune systems'

sole reason. Of all hypotheses examined, the

proclivity to go into overdrive when infected with

ubiquity of the young median age in Africa could be

COVID-19 (Cheng & Mutsaka, 2021).

the more predominant hypothesis, but more

If these findings are to be accepted, the question to

research on the other theories is necessary.

be asked is, how long does natural immunity to the virus last? Research on this matter is limited and subject to change, but according to Jeffrey Townsend, a professor of biostatistics at Yale University, “Reinfection can reasonably happen in three months or less" (Greenwood, 2021). Research led by Jeffrey Townsend of Yale School of Public Health and Alex Dornburg, assistant professor of bioinformatics and genomics at the University of

36

John Jay Journal of International Affairs

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Bruton, B. (2020, April 7). What does the

coronavirus mean for Africa? Atlantic Council. https://www.atlanticcouncil.org/ blogs/africasource/what-does-thecoronavirus-mean-for-africa/ Cheng, M. & Mutsaka, F. (2021, November 19).

Scientists mystified, wary, as Africa avoids COVID disaster. ABC News. https:// abcnews.go.com/Health/ wireStory/scientists-mystified-wary-africa-

avoids-covid-disaster-81271647 Chitungo, I., Dzobo, M., Hlongwa, M., &

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Dzinamarira, T. (2020). Covid-19:

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S., Singh, J., Kumar, Dr. S., et al. (2021, October 1). The durability of immunity against reinfection by SARS-CoV-2: a comparative evolutionary study. https:// doi.org/10.1016/S2666-5247(21)00219-6 Encyclopædia Britannica. (n.d.). Climate of Africa. https://www.britannica.com/place/Africa/ Climate Goldbaum, C., & Silva, J. (2021, August 6). No

work, no food: Pandemic deepens global hunger. The New York Times. https:// www.nytimes.com/2021/08/06/world/ africa/covid-19-global-hunger.html Greenwood, M. (2021, October 1). For unvaccinated, reinfection by SARS-CoV-2

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Nkengasong, J. (2020, April 28). Let Africa into the market for COVID-19 Diagnostics. Nature News. https://www.nature.com/articles/ d41586-020-01265-0 Parke, P. (2016, January 19). More Africans have access to cell phone service than piped water. CNN. https:// www.cnn.com/2016/01/19/africa/africaafrobarometer-infrastructure-report/ index.html Obulutsa, G. (2021, July 30). Kenya suspends inperson meetings to curb COVID-19 spread.

Reuters. https://www.reuters.com/world/ africa/kenya-suspends-all-in-personmeetings-countrywide-contain-covid-19spread-2021-07-30/

is likely, study finds. YaleNews. https:// news.yale.edu/2021/10/01/unvaccinatedreinfection-sars-cov-2-likely-study-finds

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Ritchie, H., Mathieu, E., Rodés-Guirao, L., Appel,

United Nations World Food Programme. (2021,

C., Giattino, C., Ortiz-Ospina, E., Hasell, J.,

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Macdonald, B., Beltekian, D., & Roser, M.

(WFP). https://news.un.org/en/

(2020, March 5). Coronavirus (COVID-19)

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E. (2005). Geospatial indicators of

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Wetzel, D. (2020, May 20). Pandemics know no borders: In Africa, regional collaboration is key to fighting COVID-19. World Bank Blogs. https://blogs.worldbank.org/

African slums: The housing crisis. The

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Borgen Project. https://borgenproject.org/

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#:~:text=While%20around%20one% 20billion%20people,the%20world% 20for%20urban%20poverty The New York Times. (2020, March 3).

Coronavirus in the U.S.: Latest Map and case count. https://www.nytimes.com/ interactive/2021/us/covid-cases.html

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UNDP in Africa. https:// www.africa.undp.org/content/rba/en/ home/blog/2017/8/7/ africa_defining_challenge.html United Nations Environment Programme. (2014, November 24). Water scarcity. United

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Worldometer. (n.d.). Africa population (live). https://www.worldometers.info/worldpopulation/africa-population/ #:~:text=The%20median%20age%20in% 20Africa%20is%2019.7years

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John Jay Journal of International Affairs

Source: Quartz Media, https://qz.com/486986/the-attendees-to-chinas-military-parade-leaders-of-the-worlds-least-powerful-countries/

Is a New Red Dawn Rising?

Ethnic Nationalism, Ethnic Minorities, and Foreign Aggression in Russia and China James Hodson

Spring 2022

Abstract Russia and China have been gaining power and growing increasingly aggressive. This rise in foreign aggression comes contemporaneously with a rise in ethnic nationalism in both countries. Both the state and the populace have adopted an ethnocultural consciousness bent on regaining national power and standing while promoting an alternative civilization to that of the West. This consciousness drives foreign aggression. Another factor, however, is the presence of multiple large, concentrated ethnic minority groups in both Russia’s and China’s territories. It is hypothesized that ethnic nationalism will drive aggressive foreign politics, but the presence of legacy ethnic minorities will restrain the scope of that aggression. Russia’s and China’s cases were examined to investigate the hypothesis using the concepts of order, body, and consciousness. The hypothesis was not found to be the case in Russia. Its particular civilizational conception of ethnic nationalism allows it to incorporate non-ethnic Russians and the existing patriotism of non-ethnic Russians supports the state’s foreign aggression. The hypothesis was found to be more plausible in China. The lack of a sense of belonging among non-ethnic Han Chinese forces the Chinese Communist Party to find ways to accommodate ethnic minorities, whether through appeasement or repression.

41

B

oth Russia and China have vast lands

justifying its actions in Crimea (Kolstø, 2016). In

inhabited by multitudes of ethnic

China,

groups, legacies left to them by their

populace broke out into violence in 2005. The

imperial past. Russia is home to one

Chinese government has also adopted more Han-

hundred ninety-three ethnic groups living in lands stretching from the Baltic Sea to the Pacific Ocean.

Over two hundred seventy languages were spoken in Russia in 2010. Additionally, concentrated

populations of Orthodox Christians, Muslims, Buddhists, and Shamanists all exist within its borders. (Minority Rights, 2020, December). China is home to fifty-six official ethnic groups in addition to many unrecognized groups. In the 1964 census, over four hundred groups applied for recognition

as

separate

ethnicities

(Minority

Rights, 2017, November).

sentiments

among

the

centric rhetoric and policies (Cabestan, 2005).

The rise in ethnic nationalism has accompanied an increase in economic status and geopolitical power in both Russia and China. Under Putin, Russia has rebuilt its economy and restored its status as a great power. Not only has Russia recovered from the fall of the Soviet Union, but it has also been so aggressive as to militarily annex Crimea and to oppose American interests in Syria (Alexseev & Hale, 2016; Stein, 2020). China likewise has grown more aggressive, launching the Belt and Road initiative worldwide, establishing the military bases

Previously, loyalty to the dynasty or party has held

in the Pacific, and positioning itself as America’s

these medleys of disparate ethnicities together. In

next rival (Russel & Berger, 2020). The research

tsarist Russia, the Romanov dynasty brought

question of this project is how the tension between

numerous ethnic groups under their rule. The

imperial legacy and contemporary nationalism has

Romanovs held these groups under their sway

affected Russia’s and China’s foreign policy.

through dynastic loyalty or military force, itself loyal to the dynasty. The Soviets replaced the dynasty with the party, portraying a “friendship of the peoples” (Blakkisrud, 2016, p. 269). In imperial China, the various dynasties held sway over their vast dominions through loyal bureaucrats and

autonomous princes. The Communists followed the Soviet

model,

allowing

a

diverse

group

of

ethnicities to be loyal to one party.

42

anti-Japanese

Nationalism can express itself both defensively and aggressively, depending on the perceived power of the state. Civic nationalism and statist patriotism can either focus on the expansion of national power or the territorial preservation of state borders.

Likewise, ethnic nationalism can either focus on the expansion of ethnic power or the xenophobic preservation of ethnic purity (Kolstø, 2016). Both Russia and China perceive themselves to be

Recently, however, Russia and China have seen

powerful players on the international scene,

ethnic nationalism arise in their populace and

lending to their assertiveness (Kolstø, 2016; Kuan,

ethnic

their

2019). Both Russia and China, however, are also

governments. In Russia, the 2010 riot on Moscow’s

multi-ethnic countries with significant ethnic

Manezhnaia Square provides a poignant example of

enclaves. Majority ethnic nationalism often leads to

the xenophobia and ethnocentrism present within

conflict with ethnic minorities (Alexseev, 2016).

the Russian populace. (Verkhovsky, 2016). In 2014,

The research hypothesis is that ethnic nationalism

the Kremlin used ethnic nationalist language when

will drive aggressive foreign politics, but the

nationalist

rhetoric

come

from

John Jay Journal of International Affairs

presence of legacy ethnic minorities will restrain

with the People’s Republic of China consisting of

the scope of aggression. Russia and China will first

fifty-six official ethnic groups (Zedong, 1953;

have to mind their empire at home before pressing

Information Office, 1999, September).

on too far outside their borders.

Despite

this

official

history,

popular

ethnic

nationalism is high in Russia. Ethnic nationalists of various

Literature Review

and

political

persuasions

collectively oppose migrant workers from the

Nationalism as an ideology comes in many

Caucasus

different forms. The literature has identified the

Kosmarskaya & Savin, 2016). The riot on Moscow’s

two main strands of nationalism as ‘imperial’ or

Manezhnaia Square in 2010 is one of many

‘civic’

examples of xenophobic violence against migrant

nationalism

and

‘ethnic’

nationalism.

and

Central

nationalists view the state as having betrayed the

within the borders of the new state” (Blakkisurd,

nation with its economic pragmatism and market

2016, p. 249). This form of nationalism derives

globalism. With their goal closer than ever, ethnic

from the state and its territory. Also known as

nationalists wish to form a pure ethnic Russian

patriotism, imperial nationalism seeks a strong

(russkii) nation-state (Rutland, 2016; Verkhovsky,

state and the preservation or expansion of the

2016).

common descent, culture, history, and language.

Ethnic nationalism seeks the preservation of ethnic purity and dominance (Kolstø, 2016).

Many

2016;

identity “intended to encompass everyone residing

identity. This form of nationalism derives from

2016).

(Kolstø,

workers

involves a more exclusive ethnic and cultural

(Verkhovsky,

Asia

Imperial nationalism involves a civic national

country’s territory. Ethnic nationalism, however,

ethnic

Popular ethnic nationalism is also on the rise in China. The pragmatic, conservative nationalism of the Communist party’s old elite is now challenged and supplemented by populist nationalism and revanchist nationalism. Like in Russia, both populist nationalism and revanchist nationalism

Historically, the Russian and Chinese governments

view the state as having betrayed the people with

have promoted multicultural, imperial nationalism.

its economic pragmatism and compromising with

The Soviets promoted the “friendship of the

foreigners. The populists are anti-Western, anti-

peoples”

establishing

Japanese, and Han-centric (Cabestan, 2005; Che,

autonomous ethnic regions and denouncing “Great

2020). They are particularly active online (Leibold,

Russian chauvinism” (Blakkisrud, 2016, p. 269; p.

2016; Liu, 2006, Wu, 2007). The 1999 protests

249). The Russian Federation continued this

against the Chinese embassy bombing and the

practice, promoting a civic Russian (rossiiskii)

2005 anti-Japanese violence are more tangible

identity, emphasizing Russia’s ethnic diversity, and

examples of this strand of nationalism. The

repressing extreme ethnic nationalists (Blakkisrud,

revanchists, also anti-Western and anti-Japanese,

2016;

insist on a return to Maoism (Cabestan, 2005; Che,

within

Kolstø,

the

2016).

U.S.S.R.,

Likewise,

the

Chinese

Nationalist Party promoted the idea of zhonghua minzu and five ethnicities in one nation (Kuan, 2019). Mao also denounced “Han chauvinism,”

Spring 2022

theological

2020).

Increasingly, the Russian government is shifting towards a moderate ethnic nationalism in its

43

rhetoric and policies. The Kremlin justified its

into repeated conflict with minorities. In Russia,

annexation of Crimea by appealing to the majority

ethnic minorities have even supported Russia’s

ethnic Russian population of the peninsula and the

annexation of Crimea despite the Kremlin’s ethnic

state’s national security interests in access to the

nationalist

undertones

(Alexseev,

Black Sea. This dual explanation appealed to both

Additionally,

the

has

ethnic and imperial nationalists (Alexseev, 2016;

promote the preservation of minority cultures

Kolstø, 2016). Indeed, 88 percent of the population

through autonomous territories and the use of

supported “Crimea’s joining of Russia” (Alexseev,

minority languages in schools (Blakkisrud, 2016).

2016, p. 162). Increasingly, in his speeches, Putin

Finally, external expansion and departing migrant

uses the ethnic term russikii instead of the civic

workers have reduced xenophobia among the

term rossiiskii (Blakkisrud, 2016). He appeals to

Russian populace (Kosmarskaya & Savin, 2016;

ethnic Russian (russikii) identity and culture as

Alexseev, 2016). Like Russia, China has granted

what holds together the Russian federation, even

significant regional autonomy to ethnic minorities.

calling

“state-bearing

Historically, China has even given preference to

people” (Kolstø, 2016, p. 34). This restored

ethnic minorities regarding the One-Child policy,

“Russian world” serves as an alternative to Western

economic

liberal society (Pain, 2016, p. 72; Laruelle, 2016).

education (Hoshino, 2019; People’s Republic of

ethnic

Russians

the

The Chinese have also adopted more ethnic nationalist rhetoric. Xi Jinping, in particular, has appealed

to

both

populist

nationalists

and

revanchist nationalists. Compared to his more conservative

forerunners,

Xi

Jinping

has

aggressively asserted China’s place in the current international system while placing China in opposition to the West (Kuan, 2019). Young, populist “wolf warrior” diplomats now serve as the

China,

Kremlin

development,

1999).

Now,

2016).

continued

employment,

however,

the

to

and

Chinese

government is shifting from multiculturalism to assimilation. Religious persecution has renewed among Tibetan Buddhists and Uyghur Muslims, while linguistic homogeneity is enforced in the classroom. Xi Jinping’s “Chinese Dream” is of a homogenous,

socialist,

Han-centric

China

(Erickson, 2021; Leibold, 2013; Minority Rights Group International, 2007).

face of Chinese foreign policy, often focusing on

appealing to domestic nationalism over dealing with foreign powers. The government has also taken steps against minority groups, such as the

This study employs primarily qualitative methods

Uyghurs. Finally, Xi Jinping’s “Chinese Dream”

supported

appeals to both populists and revanchists by

secondary data from past studies, journalistic

promoting a restoration of Chinese society and

articles, and state sources, this study hopes to

culture (Cabestan, 2005; Che, 2020; Leibold,

evaluate the effect that imperial legacy and ethnic

2013). Like Russia, this is a restoration of Chinese

nationalism have on a country’s foreign policy.

society as an alternative to Western liberal society.

Russia and China were chosen as case studies due

So far, the Russians have avoided conflict with minority ethnicities, but the Chinese have come

44

Data and Methods by

quantitative

methods.

Using

to their long imperial history, concentrated ethnic

minorities, emerging majority nationalism, and status as rising Great Powers. Both countries have

John Jay Journal of International Affairs

had to manage a transition from empire to nation-

nationalism identifies the state with the nation,

state with its attendant domestic tribulations. As

deriving citizenship from nationhood. Secondly,

rising Great Powers, their domestic affairs and

nationalism will be measured along a spectrum of

emergent national cultures have a great impact

“power distribution” ranging from imperialist to

upon the international system.

democratic. Imperial nationalism identifies power

Expanding upon Sven Gunnar Simonsen’s two-axis model, the dependent variable of this study is the “territorial orientation” of Russia and China, defined as a state’s disposition to either privilege

identifies power with the people or nation. Both “national identity” and “power distribution” will be

measured using state policies and public opinion.

territorial defense or imperial expansion in their

State policies and public opinion will be analyzed

policy and discourse (P. Kolstø, 2016). The two

as deriving from an imperial legacy or emerging

ends of this spectrum are a “Core” orientation

ethnic

towards defense and an “Empire” orientation

conceptualization

towards expansion. The “territorial orientations” of

“consciousness” (2016). “Order” refers to “the

Russia and China will be measured using state

political regime” of a country and its policies. An

policies and popular opinion. States oriented

imperial order locates power with the sovereign

towards the “Core” tend to engage in less

whereas a democratic order locates power with the

diplomatic and military aggression unprovoked

people. “Body” refers to “the territory of the

than states oriented towards the “Empire,” who

country” under the jurisdiction of the “order,”

seek to expand their territory and influence.

including regions with both majority and minority

Populaces oriented towards the “Core” tend to

ethnicities and cultures. A state can seek to retain

disapprove of territorial expansion and prioritize

territory or acquire territory and influence. Finally,

domestic concerns over foreign intervention. States

“consciousness” refers to “an intricate complex of

and populaces lie on a spectrum between two ideal

traditional stereotypes of popular consciousness”

types, and particular actions and opinions are not

that preserves the stability of the “order” and

always consistent with their general orientation.

justifies policies concerning the “body” (E. Pain,

The independent variable of this study is the nationalism, or lack thereof, within Russia and China. For the purposes of this study, nationalism will be operationalized along two axes. Firstly,

Spring 2022

with the sovereign while democratic nationalism

nationalism of

using “order,”

Emil

Pain’s

“body,”

and

2016). The consciousness of a people—or a segment

of that people—expresses values about “territorial orientation,”

“national

identity,”

and

“power

distribution.”

nationalism will be measured along a spectrum of

Finally, this study is inherently historical. Aspects

“national identity” ranging from pure statism to

of a state’s “order,” “body,” and “consciousness” do

statist nationalism to ethnic nationalism (P. Kolstø,

not arise spontaneously. In these cases, they result

2016). Pure statism completely discards the

from hundreds and thousands of years. While

conception of a nation or, else, removes the

human actors prevent the matter from being one of

necessity of connecting power with nationhood.

determinism, nations tend to develop dispositions

Statist nationalism identifies the nation with the

towards certain lines of thought and action. Once a

state, deriving nationhood from citizenship. Ethnic

tradition has been accumulated, it is difficult to

45

completely escape it. An example of this is the

when faced with a multi-ethnic country. In fact, it is

Western

usually in the interest of such a state to prevent

institution

contemporary

of

freedom

freedom.

from

ethnic conflict and to promote a consciousness

preceding Western conceptions, it rests upon the

rooted in citizenship. An ethnic nationalist state,

ideas and practices of Western Civilization going

faced with the same circumstances, would likely

back to the ancient Greeks. A line of developmental

engender ethnic conflict by preferring one ethnicity

lineage can easily be drawn. Likewise, current

or

circumstances

cultural

consciousness protective of national identity and

consciousness all result from a continued historical

culture. For such a state, the interest of the nation

development. Each case study will begin with a

is worth the instability of the state.

and

differs

Although

aspects

greatly

of

brief summary of the historical development of the current circumstances and ethnic nationalism of Russia and China.

another.

It

would

promote

an

ethnic

The above analysis illustrates a problem with this approach: nationalism is simply one of many attributes composing a country’s consciousness.

The combination of a country’s attributes and sub-

Research The Problem Two of the world’s Great Powers, Russia and China, have an extensive imperial heritage of sprawling territory, concentrated ethnic minorities, and an historically statist national identity. Both empires have had to wrestle with the advent of the nationstate in the nineteenth century, the triumph and fall of statism in the twentieth century, and the emergence of ethnic nationalism as a driving force of popular opinion and station action. The reemergence of Russia and China as Great Powers

rivalling the United States raises their domestic nationalism to global importance. How nationalism will shape Russian and Chinese domestic and

and circumstances. A statist state with progressive tendencies would attempt to prevent ethnic conflict through toleration, while a statist state with authoritarian collectivist tendencies would attempt to do so through repression and assimilation. An ethnic nationalist state with progressive tendencies, however, would not work quite the same as a statist state

with

such

tendencies.

Although

not

impossible, it is hard to imagine an ethnic nationalist

state

extensively

tolerating

ethnic

minorities. While progressivism may temper the degree of favoritism, it will in turn be tempered by

ethnic nationalism. Such a contradiction may lead to the demise of one attribute in favor of another in the long run.

foreign policy can be predicted from how it has

A final element that ought to be considered in any

shaped them so far.

analysis of state action is power. A state without

While statism and ethnic nationalism do not determine a country’s “territorial orientation,” they do indicate which actions a state might take in response to circumstances and what circumstances

might arise from that state’s action. For instance, a statist state is less likely to engender ethnic conflict

46

attributes gives rise to different emergent actions

power is unlikely to have an aggressive “territorial orientation.” Indeed, a lack of power domestically would force a state to orient towards the “Core” as it sought to stabilize its rule. A state with stable domestic power is more likely to seek international power, and a state with strong international power is more likely to aggressively seek its interests.

John Jay Journal of International Affairs

Power can be defined teleologically as the ability of

circumstances and cultural consciousness, these

a state to achieve its perceived ends. It is the

case studies will examine the effect of nationalism

dominant aspect of a state’s circumstances for

on contemporary state policies and public opinion

determining international relations (N. Onuf,

using state documents, journalistic articles, and

2017). Nationalism, part of a state’s consciousness,

scholarly literature. Finally, these case studies will

can be framed as an appetite, the desire for some

attempt to predict the future effect of nationalism

ultimate end.

on state politics and public opinion from past

The problem this study seeks to answer is how

imperial

legacies

and

ethnic

nationalism

specifically have influenced and will continue to influence Russian and Chinese foreign policy.

Alternatively, this study could be framed as answering

how

a

state’s

ultimate

end—its

conception of nationhood—shapes that state’s immediate ends and use of means—policies—in response

to

current

circumstances—including

power distributions, territorial extent, and ethnic homogeny. As shown in the preceding paragraphs, nationalism is not necessarily a state’s only or highest

ultimate

end.

A

trends.

state’s

cultural

consciousness has many component aspects of which nationalism is merely a prominent member.

Nonetheless, nationalism is prominent enough to isolate as an important influencer of state policies.

Examining nationalism in the larger historical context of Russia’s and China’s circumstances and cultural consciousness should illuminate the effects

Russia Russia’s imperial past stretches back to A.D. 1547 with the crowning of Ivan the Terrible as Tsar.

Russia drew heavily on the imperial traditions of the Byzantine Empire and the Mongol Khanate: the rule of a single universal emperor as judge under God. Here also one finds the tension between Europe and Asia intrinsic in Russian identity

moving on. Russia continued to centralize under Peter the Great and Catherine the Great. Under these rulers Russia embraced Western ideas and practices, although modified to suit Russian autocracy. Europe had won but not wholly. It would soon drive Russia away. The French Revolution unleashed the ravages of nationalism in 1789, and the Napoleonic Wars spread them across Europe (Montefiore, 2016).

that emerging ethnic nationalism has on post-

After the Napoleonic Wars, Russia struggled to deal

imperial states.

with the conflicting values of imperial autocracy and nationalism. In 1825, the Decembrist uprising broke out as revolutionary nobles sought to limit

Case Studies

Spring 2022

autocracy with a constitution. According to Pain,

Two national case studies will be examined to

this is the apogee of civic nationalist thought

determine the effects of ethnic nationalism on the

arising from the French Revolution in nineteenth-

foreign policy of states with significant imperial

century Russia. This civic nationalism identified

legacies. First, these case studies will summarize

nationality with citizenship and the nation as the

the historical development of each state’s “order,”

source of sovereignty. The Russian state and

“body,” and “consciousness.” Having established

cultural elite originally welcomed the idea. As had

the

occurred under Peter the Great, Alexander I

development

of

each

state’s

current

47

embraced Western ideas modified to Russian

ethnic Russian political domination merged the

circumstances. The Decembrist uprising occurring

idea of protecting the empire with preferential

under Nikolai I soured civic nationalism in the

rights

minds of the elite, leading to the censorship of the

Russians with the sovereign emperor as separate

term “nation” (Pain, 2016).

from

In 1833, Minister of Education Sergei Uvarov provided “Orthodoxy, Autocracy, and Nationality” as the Russian response to the French “Freedom,

Equality, and Brotherhood.” Nationality committed Russia to preserve its unique cultural traditions in

other

the

Russian

subject

majority,

peoples

identifying

(Pain,

2016).

Additionally, Slavophiles divided the world into “Self” with which unity should be sought and “Other” with which conflict was inevitable. The

most prominent “Other” was the West (Tsygankov, 2008).

opposition to the West while bolstering imperial

The Soviet Union rejected ethnic nationalism as

autocracy

the

inconsistent with communism. Communism at its

emperor above the people. Culminating in the

core is a globalist ideology. As Marx stated in the

1860s, nationality was represented as a unique

Communist Manifesto, “The supremacy of the

Russian concept “reflecting the specifics of the

proletariat will cause them [national differences

culture and rituals of the folk” (Pain, 2016, p. 50).

and antagonism] to vanish still faster” (Marx, 2010,

As Pain points out, this matches the contemporary

p. 25). Put more succinctly by Engels in Anti-

definition of an ethnic community, “a group of

Duhring, “the state is not ‘abolished.’ It dies

people linked together by ideas about a shared

out” (Engels, 1996). Lenin denounced “Great

origin and with their own name for themselves

Russian chauvinism” (2005). A brief revival of

(ethnonym)”

(Pain,

an

ethnic nationalism arose with the Stalinist doctrine

ethnocultural

nationalism

exceptionalism

of “socialism in one country” arose, leading to a

arose in nineteenth-century Russia in reaction to

federal system of national republics dominated by

Western liberalism.

ethnic Russians. With the death of Stalin, however,

with

paternalistic

2016,

imagery

p.50). and

of

Thus,

This ethnocultural tradition reached its apogee under the Slavophiles of the late nineteenth century in opposition to the civic nationalism of the

Westernizers.

Pain

lists

their

defining

characteristics as essentialism, a defensive imperial character, and the principle of the political domination supposed

48

for

of

ethnic

Russians.

Essentialism

that the Russians were a

people

the Soviet Union adopted a policy of dual nationality, the recognition of ethnic nationality and the promotion of civic nationality with the long

-term goal of blending ethnicities together into one people (Meissner, 1976). This “friendship of the peoples” united the multinational Soviet republics into

one

civic

identity

of

“Soviet

the

Russian

people” (Blakkisrud, 2016).

fundamentally unique from all others, specifically

This

the West. Not only were the customs of the Russian

Federation. The Yeltsin regime, followed initially by

people different, their essential mission was

the Putin regime, promoted the civic identity of

exceptional as well. Their defensive imperial

“Russian” (rossiiskii) as opposed to the ethnic term

character committed Slavophiles to the defense of

of russkii. Accompanying this, Westernizers and

autocracy,

Russia’s

democratic reformers arose triumphant under the

territory, the imperial body. Finally, the principle of

Yeltsin regime. Russia finally wished to integrate

the

imperial

order,

and

policy

continued

under

John Jay Journal of International Affairs

with Europe (Kolstø, 2016). Dissatisfaction with

uniquely Russian ethnic and cultural consciousness

government corruption soon led to a rising popular

(Laruelle, 2016).

distrust of the West and widespread ethnic nationalism. At the fringe laid various ethnic supremacist groups. Intellectually, a three-sided battle emerged between civic nationalists, ethnic nationalists, and an Eurasianist coalition of imperial

nationalists

and

statists.

The

first

prioritized state stability, economic modernization, and Westernization. The second prioritized ethnic integrity, democratic reforms, and Westernization.

The

third

prioritized

state

power,

cultural

conservation, and Russian essentialism (Kolstø, 2016; Pain, 2016).

debate, anti-immigrant fervour, and economic decline that the Kremlin’s new nationalist policy has taken shape. The Kremlin has consistently suppressed

radical

ethnic

nationalists

and

nationalist democrats as dangerous to the State. In

particular, the Kremlin forcefully clamped down on ethnic nationalism after the 2010 anti-migrant riots

in

Manezhnaia

Square

(Kolstø,

2016;

Blakkisrud, 2016.). This rise in popular ethnic nationalist feeling, along with organized political opposition, caused a reaction among the Russian

Populist ethnic nationalism arose in part from the

political elite. While firmly rejecting a mono-ethnic

collapse of the Soviet Union, economic decline, anti

nation-state, a 2012 article by Putin presented

-Western feeling, and anti-Muslim feeling. The

ethnic Russians (russkii) as “the state-forming

collapse

Union

nation” (Putin, 2012, as cited in Blakkisrud, 2016).

suddenly placed millions of Russians into a Russian

Putin presented the Russian Federation as a

Federation in which ethnic Russians composed

multiethnic Russian (russkii) civilization bound

more than 80 percent of the population. This

together by the political and cultural leadership of

transformed Russia from a functional empire to

the Russian people (Blakkisrud, 2016).

of

the

multi-national

Soviet

something resembling a nation-state (Kolstø, 2016, p. 41). In addition to gaining nearly an ethnic state, the

failure

of

economic

reforms,

Western

opposition, and Islamic radicalism created “Others” from which Russians could separate themselves.

The failure of market reforms, the expansion of NATO, and Western sanctions soured public opinion towards the West, which was viewed as undermining Russia (Laruelle, 2016; Rutland, 2016). Likewise, the Chechen Wars and immigrant labor from the Caucasus and Central Asia produced anti-Muslim sentiments among the populace. The 2013 Romir survey found that 60.5 percent of respondents believed that Islam represented “a threat

to

social

stability

and

Russian

culture” (Kolstø, 2016, p. 41). The enmity with West and East promoted the development of a

Spring 2022

It is in this crucible of political battle, intellectual

This

new

official

nationalism

retains

an

authoritarian order and an imperial body. Putin has promoted a conception of social contract between the state and the populace in which the state provides security and services to the populace

in return for loyalty and support (Rutland, 2016).

The political order itself is largely based upon networks isolated

of from

patron-client popular

relationships

control;

and

nevertheless,

popular opinion heavily influences the stability of these

patron-client

relationships.

A

Russian

president without the support of the people with soon no longer be president (Alexseev & Hale, 2016; Hale, 2016). Putin has consistently defended the territorial integrity and multiethnic nature of the Russian Federation (Blakkisrud, 2016). The Russian body is essentially imperial, regions of

49

varying autonomy owing allegiance to a central

statists supported the annexation in hopes of

government, the fragmentation of which weakens

restoring Russia’s power. The ethnic nationalists

the state.

supported the annexation as it incorporated ethnic

This official nationalism, however, consists of a unique ethnocultural consciousness, from which the order and body derive. The Russian (russkii) people are the state-forming nation of the Russian Federation. The central government and the unity

of the disparate peoples are held together by the leadership of the Russian people, the Russian language,

Russian

culture,

and

the

Russian

Orthodox Church. The interests of the state and

minorities supported the annexation in hopes of resurrecting a truly multiethnic state in the vein of the

Soviet

ethnocultural

Union.

By

imposing

consciousness

on a

the

new

preexistent

authoritarian order and imperial body, the Kremlin had co-opted ethnic nationalism, increased state power, and accommodated ethnic minorities in one stroke (Alexseev, 2016; Kolstø, 2016; Pain, 2016).

peoples of the Federation are framed in terms of

So far, the Kremlin has been able to accommodate

the interests of the Russian (russkii) people.

the ethnic minorities despite promoting majority

Likewise, the territory of the Russian Federation

ethnic nationalism. Part of this is the cultural

derives from an historic ethnic Russian self-

rather than purely ethnic nature of nationalism

determination

that the Kremlin’s promotes (Blakkisrud, 2016).

civilization.

to The

establish territory

a

Russian

Another part is that the Kremlin has primarily

Federation, whether populated by ethnic Russians

mobilized ethnic nationalism for foreign projects.

or not, is derived from the ethnic Russian cultural

The annexation of Crimea and the opposition to the

mandate. The exact nature of the Russian (russkii)

West have both been framed as promoting Russian

people as conveyed by Putin is unclear though.

nationalism (Pain, 2016). Russian minority groups

While including ethnic Russians primarily, the

are actually more supportive of Russia’s nationalist

term also includes the larger Russian world (russkii

expansionistic tendencies than ethnic Russians.

mir) of cultural Russians. This extra-territorial and

Further, a 2013 survey found that 90 percent of

civilizational approach to nationality avoids the

ethnic non-Russian respondents were proud of

constraints of strict ethnic nationalism while

being Russian (rossiiane) citizens and 71 percent of

supporting

those who voted did so for Putin (Alexseev, 2016).

Russian

of

multiethnic

actions

the

internationally

(Blakkisurd, 2016; Pain, 2016).

In return for their support, the Kremlin has largely

The annexation of Crimean in 2014 illustrated the power of this nationalist narrative in support of the Kremlin’s

initiatives.

The

ethnic

Russian

composition of Crimea and its historical inclusion

50

Russians into the Russian nation-state. Even ethnic

celebrated Russia’s diversity and maintained the ethnic autonomous republics. In fact, minorities can be considered russkii culturally even if not ethnically (Blakkisrud, 2016).

in Russian lands helped to justify the annexation

The

Kremlin’s

expansionistic

and

external

within Russia. More importantly, the annexation of

application of cultural nationalism has given unity

Crimea successfully silenced internal political

to the country. The unifying stream through the

opposition and united the people behind the state

Kremlin’s message is the restoration of Russia as a

(Blakkisrud, 2016). The annexation brought Putin’s

Great Power and the preservation of Russian

approval rating to 88 percent (Rutland, 2016). The

culture from the predation of Western liberalism or

John Jay Journal of International Affairs

Muslim radicalism. This is the message that has

Russian ethnocultural nationalism may begin to

unified statists, ethnic nationalists, populists, and

break down if the state reduces its aggressive

ethnic minorities. The populace has even proved

foreign expansionism or other matters such as the

willing to sacrifice economic security in exchange

economy

for this vision (Rutland, 2016). The success of the

importance. As an aspirational narrative, the

Kremlin’s concept of nationalism derives from its

Kremlin’s ethnocultural nationalism successfully

breadth and flexibility. The ethnocultural nature of

directs popular ethnic nationalist as well as

Russia’s

unique

patriotic feeling towards achieving foreign policy

civilizational mandate that both nationalist and

objectives and maintaining a distinct cultural

patriotic Russians can support. Moreover, this

identity from the West. This aspirational nature

civilizational mandate supplies the Kremlin with a

requires that Russia continually strive towards

unique extra-territorial motivator for foreign action

improving its Great Power standing. Without an

(Laruelle, 2016).

external goal, the people’s focus may turn inward.

consciousness

gives

it

a

The flaws in the concept are the provocation of Western antagonism and ignoring ethnic strife at home. Russia has set its culture and civilization up as exceptional and aspirational. It denounces the liberalism of the West and the backwardness of the East (Laruelle, 2016). Its rhetoric places it in direct ideological competition with the West, isolating it from

the

global

community.

Further,

its

expansionism in Eastern Europe and claims to Great

Power

status

have provoked

Western

sanctions, hurting its economy and leading to popular unrest (Rutland, 2016). Crucially, however, this concept as it stands is dependent upon an external focus. Rising economic instability and

popular

Spring 2022

ethnic

supremacism

anti-Islamic

feeling

increase

in

Additionally, this external aggression and cultural exceptionalism isolates Russia from the West and, potentially, even allies like China. As long as Russia maintains this external antagonism, however, it will maintain an external aspiration to direct the

people’s nationalism and patriotism towards.

Finally, even if circumstances cause Russia to turn inward, the inclusive cultural conception of nationalism may prevent severe ethnic tensions from arising. Russia’s ethnocultural consciousness will promote external aggression while reinforcing an authoritarian order and accommodating an imperial body.

China

unleash

China’s imperial past dates back to before 1122 B.C.

internally disruptive forces this concept cannot

with the Xia and Shang dynasties. These dynasties

withstand.

to

ruled as mediators between the people and Heaven.

incorporate minorities culturally, this concept

An important development occurred in 1122 B.C.

begins to break down when faced with the Muslim

with the overthrow of the Shang by the Zhou and

republics of the Caucasus and Central Asia. Russian

the introduction of the Mandate of Heaven. The

culture has placed itself in opposition to Islam,

Mandate held that a government only had

hindering the incorporation of Muslims into

legitimacy so long as it ruled justly in the sight of

Russian civilization. In fact, 14.5 percent of ethnic

Heaven, which could indicate its displeasure

Russians would like the Muslim republics of the

through natural disasters, military defeats, and

North Caucasus to be separated from Russia

famine. In the ninth and eighth centuries B.C., the

(Alexseev, 2016; Blakkisrud, 2016).

Zhou declined in power by attacks from barbarians

Further,

despite

could

or

its

ability

51

and the increasing autonomy of the feudal

founded the first national university. Also during

domains.

warring

the Han dynasty, the Chinese faced a significant

between the several feudal states for power

This

resulted

in

frequent

outside threat in the form of the nomadic Xiongnu

(Wright, 2000). The Mandate of Heaven in

to the north and established the tributary system.

addition to this period likely imprinted the Chinese

Under the tributary system of exchanging gifts, the

with an aversion to foreign invasion and internal

tributary states ritually acknowledged Chinese

division.

supremacy while retaining functional autonomy.

The three primary Chinese philosophies arose

during

this

period

of

the

declining

Zhou.

followed by a period of division (Wright, 2000).

Confucianism became the guiding philosophy of

The Sui and Tang dynasties succeeded this period

the Chinese state. Confucianism emphasizes ritual

of division. The Sui dynasty reunited China and

and morality as the route to good government

redistribute agricultural land from the wealthy

under Heaven (Wright, 2000). As Dr. Kuan points

landlords to the peasants. The succeeding Tang

out, Confucian government generally becomes

dynasty, along with the Han dynasty, is seen as

patriarchal and authoritarian, but its emphasis on

China’s

harmony does lend a particular “peace-loving” to

institutionalized

the Chinese government (Kuan, 2019). Legalism

bureaucracy. The Tang continued the Sui dynasty’s

also

Legalism

program of agricultural reform, developing the

emphasizes power as the route to stable and

equal fields system under which the government

functional government. Finally, Taoism mostly

distributed plots of land to peasants to farm.

influenced the Chinese arts and home. Taoism

Finally, the Tang continued to interact with outside

emphasizes an understanding of and conformity to

threats, this time the Turks and Uighurs. The early

nature as the route to personal happiness. Both

Tang successfully subdued the Turks but later only

Confucianism and Taoism looked back to antiquity

unhappily

as a golden age compared to their contemporary

However, the Tang eventually collapsed and China

moral and political decline. Additionally, both

once again enter a period of foreign control and

placed the individual as the foundation of societal

disunity (Wright, 2000).

influenced

the

Chinese

state.

and governmental order. This contrasted with the Legalist emphasis on the ruler as the foundation of societal and governmental order (Wright, 2000).

52

The Han dynasty eventually collapsed in A.D. 220

golden

age.

The

Confucianism

accepted

the

Tang and

Uighurs

further the

as

Han

equals.

China reunited under the Song dynasty in A.D. 960 and continued under the Ming dynasty. The Song dynasty set the model for the succeeding dynasties

Following the Zhou came a succession of imperial

as “‘heavy on civilian government, light on the

dynasties and intermediate periods of foreign

military” (zhongwen qingwu). The Song dynasty

invasion and civil disunity. In 221 B.C, the Qin

was

dynasty united China as the first imperial dynasty.

frequently being invaded and humiliated by foreign

The Qin dynasty culturally and politically united

powers.

China, and its Legalist scholars established the

changed to one of isolation. It was during this

foundations of the administrative structure used to

period that the Chinese learned to fear foreigners

this day. The following Han dynasty established

and began to close themselves off from the world.

Confucianism as the official state philosophy and

In A.D. 1279, the Mongol Yuan dynasty prevailed

strong

internally

Chinese

yet

interaction

weak with

externally, the

world

John Jay Journal of International Affairs

over the Song dynasty and conquered all of China.

Nationalists

In A.D. 1368, the Chinese Ming dynasty threw out

Rebellion also prompted the Chinese to view

the foreign invaders. The Ming further centralized

Christianity and other Western ideas as essentially

political power into the hands of the emperor and

anti-Confucian and anti-Chinese (Wright, 2000).

continued the Song dynasty’s tendency towards isolation as they defended themselves against the Mongols.

Communists.

The

Taiping

The Qing dynasty breathed its last with the Boxer Rebellion of 1900 and the Nationalist Revolution of 1911, leading to decades of civil and foreign war.

From A.D. 1644-1912, the foreign Manchu reigned

The

in China as the Qing dynasty over a vast

accompanying expedition of allied Western nations

multiethnic empire. The Qing dynasty perpetuated

destroyed the remaining power and legitimacy of

Ming institutions essentially unchanged in China

the Qing dynasty and increased anti-Western

proper but allowed varying degrees of regional

sentiment among the Chinese populace. The

autonomy and variation in other parts of the

Revolution of 1911, led by Dr. Sun Yat-Sen,

empire. The Qing dynasty again elevated China’s

overthrew

international

complete

establishing a constitutional Chinese nation-state.

hegemony. The Qing viewed themselves as the

It soon turned into a dictatorship of general Yuan

center of the world (Wright, 2000). This hegemony

Shikai

soon collapsed under the pressure of European

Warlords. Throughout the 1920s, the Chinese

powers. The Treaty of Nanking with Great Britain

United Front of Nationalists led by Dr. Sun Yat-Sen

following the Opium War was the first of the

and Communists led by Mao Zedong succeeded in

“unequal treaties” imposed upon China by Western

conquering the Warlords and uniting China. In the

imperialist powers during the “century of national

1930s, however, the Nationalists, now led by

humiliation” (Wright, 2000, p. 105).

Chiang Kai-shek, Communists, and Japanese

position

to

one

of

Disaster after disaster struck China during this period. Additional humiliating treaties and armed interventions by the Western imperial powers followed, subverting the Qing dynasty’s view of

Spring 2022

and

xenophobic

the

before

Boxer

Qing

Rebellion

dynasty

fragmenting

in

and

hopes

among

the

of

various

fought a three-way war for China. The Rape of Nanking in WW2 by the Japanese scarred the Chinese consciousness and served as the apogee of the century of humiliation (Wright, 2000).

themselves as the center of the world. Practically,

This century of humiliation remains a centerpiece

Japan displaced China as the Asian hegemon in the

of contemporary Chinese political thought. It

First Sino-Japanese War (Wright, 2000). Within

consists of a strong feeling of “the rightful place of

China,

cataclysmic

China on the world stage” and a deep feeling of

proportions rebelled against the Qing dynasty.

shame at humiliation by the West and Japan

Known as the Taiping Rebellion, this revolution

(Callahan, 2004, p. 214). China’s humiliation has

sought to oust the Manchus and establish a pseudo

produced an aversion to Western states and ideas

-Christian Taiping Tianguo or “Heavenly Kingdom

and a hatred of the Japanese state and people,

of Great Peace” (Wright, 2000, p. 108). This

easily resulting in mass riots and anti-Japanese

rebellion dramatically weakened the Qing dynasty,

violence (Cabestan, 2005; Callahan, 2004). The

opening the way for predation by foreign powers,

rise of this “Other” as a common enemy helped to

regionalism, and future revolutionaries such as the

unite the Chinese into a modern nation through

a

popular

uprising

of

53

common suffering (Zheng, 2019). Further, China

Western market reforms to form “socialism with

believes that its own weak governments allowed

Chinese characteristics,” a publically-owned yet

predation by foreign powers. This drives the

privately-managed economic system based on

Chinese to value economic and military strength in

market principles (Vogel, 2011, p. 466). The

an effort to make China strong. It also reinforces

reforms worked. China’s GDP growth since 1978

cultural values, giving the Chinese a cultural

has

identity separate from the “Other” and strong

superseding Japan as the world’s second-largest

enough to resist contest or corruption. Finally,

economy in 2010 (World Bank, 2021; CFR.org

China seeks to regain its hegemony in Asia and

Editors, 2021). Coincident with its economic

Great Power standing internationally. This includes

growth, China modernized its military (Vogel,

the recovery of “Chinese” territory and suzerainty

2011). Despite this increase in strength, China

over former parts of the Qing Empire (Callahan,

proved to be unassuming and pragmatic, following

2004).

mottos like “keep a low profile” and “crossing the

After WW2 and the century of humiliation, the

nearly

10

percent

annually,

river, while reaching for the stones” (Che, 2020).

Chinese Communist Party defeated the Nationalists

Recently,

and led China into isolationism. The Chinese

bombastic all while facing new existential threats.

Communist Party itself was a populist movement,

Under Xi Jinping, China desires to be recognized

deriving most of its support from the peasantry.

for what it is, a Great Power and equal player on

After defeating the foreign-backed Nationalists,

the world stage. China has increasingly asserted its

China closed itself off from foreign interaction and

international prerogatives and a new generation of

placed

West.

“wolf warrior” diplomats aggressively push for

Additionally, a growing split occurred between it

China’s interests (Che, 2020). This has occurred

and the Soviet Union, leaving China alone. After

alongside

coming to power, the Chinese Communist Party

income inequality, and existential demographic

under Mao launched a number of economic and

decline. Chinese citizens have lost confidence in a

cultural reforms aimed at strengthening China on

stable multigenerational order and have given in to

the one hand and continuing the revolution on the

hedonistic tendencies. Other Chinese citizens

other. The Great Leap Forward and the Cultural

simply cannot afford to live. The dearth of children

Revolution, however, caused great harm to China’s

may lead to no Chinese citizens at all (Lyons, 2021,

populace. The Communist Party soon lost its

Oct. 11).

itself

in

opposition

to

the

popular support, surviving by force. Later Chinese look back upon these Maoist initiatives sorrowfully and decided never to allow such disruptive national movements or class struggles to reoccur (Wright, 2000; Kuan, 2019).

54

averaged

however,

slowing

China

economic

has

grown

growth,

more

growing

Chinese nationalism first arose in the modern sense with the thought of Dr. Sun Yat-Sen, founder of the Chinese Nationalist Party. Dr. Sun Yat-Sen’s nationalism sought to create a modern democratic Chinese nation-state after the Western model. Its

The Communist Party in the 1970s reopened China

first principle “defined nationalism in terms of

to the world. Having witnessed the failure of

opposition to imperialism and self-determination

internal revolution to strengthen China, Deng

for the Chinese people.” The second principle

Xiaoping and his successors selectively adopted

“defined the political rights of the people…as a

John Jay Journal of International Affairs

foundation for the development of democracy.” The

mold China after the West. Liberal nationalism

third principle “touched on people’s livelihood,

echoes back to the nationalism of Dr. Sun Yat-Sen

especially equalization of land ownership.” The

in the belief that China’s rise in modernity must be

people referred to in these principles were the

through democratization and liberalization. The

Chinese Nation (zhonghua minzu) composed of the

liberals seemed to be gaining much ground during

five

Manchurian,

the reforms of the 1970s and 1980s under Deng

Mongolian, Uighur, and Tibetan (Kuan, 2019). Dr.

Xiaoping, but the Tiananmen Square Massacre

Sun Yat-Sen’s nationalism embraced a multiethnic

crushed any liberal hopes under the Chinese

“Chinese” people united by a shared history and

Communist

saw all legitimate government derive from this

characterized

people.

foreign and minority policies, and visceral distaste

major

ethnicities:

Han,

Chinese nationalism shifted with the victory of the Chinese Communist Party. As a youth, Mao was a “naïve nationalist” according to his own estimation.

He even desired each province to be independent.

As he matured, Mao converted to Marxist-Leninist internationalism, sought a unified Chinese state, and blatantly rejected Han chauvinism (Kuan, 2019; Zedong, 2004). Despite this, however, Mao’s Chinese Communist Party relied upon popular nationalism to win the Chinese Civil War and justify its numerous reforms. These same reforms loss much of the Communist Party’s popular support. Deng Xiaoping proved less ideological and

by

Populist

Han

nationalism

is

chauvinism, aggressive

for Japan and the West. Popular nationalism has always been an important undercurrent in Chinese policy since the Taiping and Boxer Rebellions. It is particularly prominent among Chinese born in the 1980s and 1990s, finding its purest expression online, although marches and violence are not uncommon (Che, 2020; Leibold, 2016; Liu, 2006).

Finally, revanchist nationalism seeks a restoration of Maoist-type revolution and a rejection of the West (Che, 2020). All four ideologies share an interest in making China a strong nation-state, ousting foreign invaders, and redeeming national China’s honor.

more pragmatic. While desiring a stronger China,

The Chinese Communist Party under Xi Jinping

he quite freely adopted Western ideas and

has steered towards populist and revanchist

practices. This proved inimical to many Chinese

nationalism while retaining much of the old

who viewed anything Western as dangerous. Deng

conservative

worked a compromise by adapting market ideas to

conservative pragmatism gave China a strong

Chinese circumstances and culture, something Mao

economy and military, it also brought about

did with Marxist-Leninism. Deng’s reforms rapidly

massive income inequality, rampant political

increased China’s economic and military strength

corruption, and demographic decline. China had

while retaining a low profile and conciliatory

regained its strength and pride to swagger about on

attitude towards the outside world. His successors

the international scene, but its citizens lacked hope

followed suit, although they increasingly became

or belief in living. Xi Jinping’s accommodation of

more aggressive in seeking China’s interests (Kuan,

populist and revanchist nationalism looks to supply

2019; Che, 2020).

this gap. The Common Prosperity campaign seeks

This official conservative dogma faces numerous other dogmas. The liberals consciously seek to

Spring 2022

Party.

pragmatism.

While

the

old

to reduce wealth disparity and political corruption while addressing demographic decline and moral

55

degradation (Che, 2020; Lyons, 2021). Xi Jinping

China’s

Thought, a mixture of Confucianism, Maoism,

numerous

conservative

populist

converging on strengthening China’s position,

nationalism, provides a common ideology around

redeeming its national honor, and creating a strong

which the Chinese Communist Party and populace

ethnocultural identity. The Chinese Communist

can unite. It also provides a common enemy: the

Party still retains the conservative pragmatism to

West

Chinese

adapt ideas to Chinese culture and circumstances,

increasingly view Western ideas and policies as

but, increasingly, it seeks to construct a new culture

threatening the Chinese way of life, and liberal

for China. Xi Jinping has been influenced by

Chinese thinkers have been ostracized (Che, 2020;

populist and revanchist nationalism, promoting

Ownby, 2021).

traditional Chinese values, Confucianism, and

and

pragmatism,

the

Contemporary

United

Chinese

and

States.

The

nationalism

has

an

authoritarian order and quasi-imperial body. The rule

of

the

Chinese

Communist

Party

is

unquestionably authoritarian, ruthlessly enforcing one-party rule (Che, 2020). Even so, the Chinese retain a Confucian conception of the Mandate of Heaven (Zhao, 2009). The Chinese Communist Party cannot disregard the Chinese people’s good without facing political pressure. Xi Jinping’s Common Prosperity campaign is a case in point.

China, having suffered from a century of foreign invasion and civil war, is highly concerned with its territorial

integrity

and

regional

hegemony

(Callahan, 2004). China’s territory, however, is

consciousness

divergent

streams

of

consists

of

thought

all

Maoism in an effort to give a moral consciousness to the Chinese populace. This includes a rejection of Western liberalism, acceptance of Chinese exceptionalism,

and

preservation

of

societal

morality (Che, 2020; Lyons, 2021; Ownby, 2021).

This is a rejection of a purely state-based citizenship, tying a unique Chinese culture to the

state. Additionally, a privileged position has been given to the Han Chinese as the state-forming people and core of Chinese civilization (Leibold, 2013;

Lee,

2014;

Hoshino,

2019).

Although

populists and revanchists may go to extremes, Xi Jinping seeks to balance them with conservatives into a viable Chinese ideology (Che, 2020).

populated by fifty-five ethnic minorities composing

China’s ethnocultural consciousness is concerned

eight percent of the population in addition to the

primarily with securing China’s status as a Great

Han

Chinese

Power and protecting its foreign interests. China

Communist Party has historically extended an

under Xi Jinping has asserted itself aggressively on

equal, even privileged, status to ethnic minorities,

the international stage. Diplomatically, China’s

setting up autonomous regions and cities (Hoshino,

wolf warrior diplomats function more to preach an

2019). Complicating factors to Chinese territorial

image of China rather than reach a compromise

integrity are the statuses of Taiwan and Hong

with another country (Zhu, 2020). China has

Kong. Although the source of unending strife, a

steadily

prominent Chinese scholar, Jiang Shigong, has

consciousness from external pressure, reforming

defended “one country, two systems” as a uniquely

international law and swaying public opinion (Edel

Chinese

its

& Shullman, 2021). Militarily, China has declared

2004;

its willingness to use force to protect its territorial

Chinese

(Leibold,

expression

traditional

imperial

Garton, 2020).

56

national

of

2016).

The

governance

model

after

(Callahan,

protected

its

political

order

and

integrity and gain its interests. This disposition is

John Jay Journal of International Affairs

widely supported by the student population (Lee,

the Han and other minority groups have called for

2014; Edney, 2020). Economically, China has

the

launched the “Belt and Road Initiative” to spread

boundaries. Han nationalism, in particular, has

its

gain

emerged in both racial and cultural forms. Han

recognition as a Great Power. These initiatives

nationalists denounce not only oppression by the

undergird China as a revisionist power, seeking to

Western and Japanese, but the oppression of the

reform the global system to accommodate its new

Han Chinese by the Mongol and Manchu dynasties

status. This is an extension of China’s national

(Leibold, 2016). Although the Chinese Communist

project of reform to strengthen itself and redeem

Party continues to preserve China’s territorial

its honor on the world stage (Nguyen, 2019; Kuan,

integrity and ethnic diversity, it has increasingly

2019).

pursued

Han-centric

resulting

in

influence

in

other

countries

and

Despite its aggressive posture, however, China does not seek world domination. It merely desires to be recognized preeminent by the world. China is certainly imperialistic towards its neighbors and ubiquitous in spreading its influence, but world domination does not fit with China’s historical view of itself. China views itself as the rightful center—or at least one of the centers—of the world. Other nations

should

and

rhetoric,

persecution

and

enforced

assimilation of the Uyghurs and Tibetans with Han Chinese culture. The minorities, on their part, do not have any feelings of patriotic belonging (Lee, 2014; Turdush, 2019). Despite these developments, however, China’s ethnic policy will likely retain ethnic diversity in favor of state stability and

territorial integrity (Leibold, 2013).

2004; Kuan, 2019). After years of isolation and

nation’s honor and regain its strength interacting

internal restoration, Xi Jinping believes that China

with China’s popular nationalism and search for

ought to receive its rightful place in the world.

identity. Maoism provided a common identity

Flowing

on

based on Marxism-Leninism and opposition to the

harmony, this place is one of leadership driving

West but failed to improve China’s strength. The

towards peace, prosperity, and civilization (Kuan,

conservative

2019). Turning towards Legalism, China will use

successfully raised China to the ranks of Great

force and cunning to achieve this goal (Smith,

Powers by selectively adopting Western ideas, but

2021).

he failed to provide a common identity apart from new

emphasis

ethnocultural

consciousness has provoked ethnic strife. China’s current territorial body is premised upon the legacy of the Qing dynasty and the multiethnic “nations” of Dr. Sun Yat-Sen. All the ethnic groups in China are viewed as sharing a historical Chinese identity and civilization (Zheng, 2019). Many online populist nationalists, however, have pushed back against this narrative. Ethnic nationalists of both

Spring 2022

policies

decades of nationalism striving to redeem the

China’s

not

ethnic

approached or conquered by China (Callahan,

Confucianism’s

it,

to

Chinese ethnocultural nationalism is the result of

Domestically,

towards

the

corresponding

be

from

orient

territorialization

pragmatism

of

Deng

Xiaoping

the state. It further brought economic disparity and demographic decline to China. The revival of Maoism and rise of ethnocultural nationalism under Xi Jinping seeks to address China’s societal problems while providing a unifying identity to the Chinese based on ethnicity, culture, and history.

This identity is existentially opposed to Western

liberalism. China’s aggressiveness under Xi Jinping arises from its desire for international recognition,

57

need

for

security

from

future

threats,

and

ethnic minorities will generally drive foreign

opposition to Western culture. China’s internal

aggression. Ethnic minorities actually support

ethnic strife arises from feelings of not belonging

foreign aggression more than ethnic Russians. They

on the part of the minorities and desires for unity

manage to be proud patriots and proud of their

and assimilation on the part of the Chinese

ethnic heritage (Alexseev, 2016). Russia’s particular

Communist Party. China’s authoritarian order and

ethnocultural conception of nationalism manages

ethnocultural consciousness will seek their own

to include ethnic minorities within the framework

elevation and the protection of their pseudo-

of a larger Russian world (russkii mir) (Blakkisrud,

imperial body.

2016). This conception is externally oriented towards Russia’s place in the world in opposition to the West (Laruelle, 2016). For this conception to

Conclusion The

research

provide unity and stability, Russia must focus on hypothesis

was

that

ethnic

nationalism will drive aggressive foreign politics, but the presence of legacy ethnic minorities will

foreign affairs and fighting the “Other.” Therefore, Russia’s aggressiveness in foreign affairs will continue as the best way to deal with ethnic strife.

restrain the scope of aggression. Ethnic nationalism

In China’s case, ethnic minorities may restrain the

did drive aggressive foreign politics in both Russia

state’s aggression as long as the resources required

and China. Both cases are premised on the regain

to deal with ethnic minorities reduces the resources

of

aggressive

required for foreign aggression. China’s foreign

assertion of international status and interests. In

program of economic aid and military buildup is

Russia’s case, the fall of the Soviet Union and the

expensive (Nguyen, 2019). Many of its ethnic

Yeltsin years were a blow to Russian power and

minorities do not feel a sense of belonging to the

prestige. The state increased its power under Putin

Chinese state (Leibold, 2016; Turdush, 2019). The

before aggressively asserting its status and interests

accommodation

in opposition to the established system in the

repression or appeasement, is expensive as well

annexation

nationalism

(Leibold, 2013). At this time, however, it does not

complemented, even drove, state growth in power

appear that the expense of dealing with ethnic

and helped to justify its actions in Crimea (Kolstø,

minorities inhibits China’s ability to extend its

2016; Pain, 2016). In China’s case, the century of

power internationally. The additional costs may

humiliation brought China from the world’s apex to

reduce its willingness to go to war though. Also, if

its base. The state laid low and increased its power

China is able to meaningful reintroduce the idea of

before asserting its status and interests. Popular

the Chinese Nation (zhonghua minzu) or adopt a

nationalism again complemented the state’s growth

Han-centric civilizational approach similar to

in power before motivating the state towards

Russia’s nationalism, then ethnic conflict in China

certain

could be reduced, freeing resources for foreign

national

strength

of

followed

Crimea.

international

by

Popular

and

domestic

policies

of

these

ethnicities,

whether

(Callahan, 2004; Che, 2020; Leibold, 2016).

aggression (Kuan, 2019).

In Russia’s case, it is unlikely that ethnic minorities

Ethnic

will restrain the state’s aggression. In fact, Russian

humiliation drives foreign aggression to regain

nationalism

in

response

to

national

national honor. The ability for ethnic minorities to

58

John Jay Journal of International Affairs

restrain foreign aggression is dependent upon their patriotism and feeling of belonging to the state or civilizational concept. Additional avenues for research include the dynamic between popular nationalism and state policies, opposition to the West in the rise of ethnic nationalism, and specific manifestations of the process of humiliation, isolation, regain of strength, and foreign aggression

in relation to ethnic nationalism. Regardless, the West should be cautious about intervening— whether politically, economically, militarily, or culturally—in other countries. It may very well leave an impression of oppression and create its own rival.

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