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Bloomberg: POAS <GO>

ASIA CLOSING MARKET REPORT & SUMMARY OF LAURICS AND STEARIN

OUTLOOK

NEWS

Trading range

 Market Commentary  RBDP Olein trades  Weekly Laurics Market up-

2325 to 2475

date  Weekly Stearin Market update  Data released last week and data to be released this week

Singapore

Benchmark trading range for the week

London

RBDP Olein

RBD PKO

CPO

572.8

770

592.5

FOB Malaysia –PK/PG Average traded

FOB Malaysia May

FOB Indonesia– BL/DM Apr

30TH MARCH 2020

FCPO-BMD JUN 2020

RM 2437 (US$ 563)

RM +59 (US$ +13.64)

Total volume: 50,491

CCNO 880

CIF Rotterdam Apr-May

The above table shows selection of latest prices. All prices in US$ per-metric ton

FUTURES POST SOLID GAINS AT THE BACK OF LOWER OUTPUT & BETTER EXPORTS OFFSETTING WEAKER MACROS MARKET COMMENTARY CPO market was firm despite weakness in Asian equities. Lower production outlook in Malaysia particularly from the state of Sabah which account for 25% of total annual production is supporting the higher prices today. A lower production scenario set against strong buying from China pushed benchmark contract up 88 points. China returned to buying after 3 months of absence amidst lockdown in

major cities in a bid to suppress the spread of Covid-19 virus. Malaysia Mar export was heard up 4-5%. Actual data is due tomorrow.

June traded 2466-2402. This week we will hear estimates on March production and S&D estimates ahead of MPOB report. Higher exports and lower production supported higher CPO offsetting weaker macro market fundamentals. Next: March exports

PRICES

Futures - Bursa Malaysia Derivatives

FCPO on BMD

Benchmark - Jun 2020

SPREADS CPO-GO Spread SBO-CPO Spread CDSBO-OL Spread

Closing (RM)

Closing (US$)

RM

%

Vol.

2,437

563

+59.00

+2.48

21,466

US$

US$

%

263.15 52.42 -10.00

19.23 4.42 -3.00

7.88 9.20 -42.86

Physical - Reported Trades and Bid/Offer Prices

(all in per-metric ton unless otherwise specified) b = buyer & s = seller

CPO FOB Indonesia - Belawan (BL) / Dumai (DM) Delivery month USD

CPO CIF Rotterdam Delivery month USD

Apr 592.50 (s)

May 587.50 (s)

Apr 645 (s) - 625 (b)

May 642.50 (s) - 625 (b)

Jun 582.50 (s)

Jun 630 (s) - 615 (b)

JAS 620 (s) - 600 (b)

OND 610(s)-590(b)

RBD Palm Olein FOB Malaysia —Port Klang (PK) or Pasir Gudang (PGG) - Reported trades Delivery month JAS OND USD

573.50, 575

570

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palmoilanalytics.com

Bloomberg: POAS <GO>

ASIA CLOSING MARKET REPORT & SUMMARY OF LAURICS AND STEARIN

30TH MARCH 2020

PRICES Physical - Reported Trades and Bid/Offer Prices

USD to RM = 4.3255 0.38%

(all in per-metric ton unless otherwise specified) b = buyer & s = seller)

CPKO FOB Indonesia - Belawan (BL) / Dumai (DM) Delivery month USD

CPKO CIF Rotterdam Delivery month USD

CCNO CIF Rotterdam Delivery month USD

Apr 680 (s)

May 690 (s)

Jun 700 (s)

Apr-May 670 (s)

May-Jun 750 (s)

Jun-Jul 765 (s)

Jul-Aug 780 (s)

Apr-May 880 (s)

May-Jun 890 (s) - 840 (b)

Jun-Jul 900 (s)

Jul-Aug 910 (s)

RBD Palm Olein FOB Malaysia —Port Klang (PK) or Pasir Gudang (PGG) - Last prices Delivery month USD

Apr 610 (s) - 600 (b)

May-Jun 600 (s)

Jun 595 (s)

JAS 577.50 (s) - 572.50 (b)

RBD Palm Oil FOB Malaysia—Port Klang (PK) or Pasir Gudang (PGG)

RBD PK Oil—FOB Malaysian ports

RBD Palm Stearin - Delivered basis—Malaysia

CPO Indonesia PTPN Tender

Delivery month USD Delivery month USD

Apr 607.50 (s)

AMJ 597.50 (s)

Apr 630 (s)

Delivery month USD

Rupiah/kg 8,500

Aug-Sept 790 (s) - 765 (b)

OND 575 (s) - 567.50 (b)

May 770 (s)

US Dollar/ton—FOB 578.32

Friday 562.09

RBD Palm Stearin FOB Indonesia - Belawan (BL) / Dumai (DM) Delivery month USD

Apr 620 (s)

PFAD—Delivered basis - Malaysia Delivery month USD

Apr 590 (s)

PFAD FOB Indonesia - Belawan (BL) / Dumai (DM) Delivery month USD

Apr 580 (s)

Local CPO - South Malaysia— Reported trade Delivery month RM

Apr 2550 (s) - 2520 (b)

Apr

2530—traded

Local CPKO - South Malaysia - (price per-picul [16.5346 picul = one metric ton]) Delivery month RM

Apr-May 185 (s)

APEX—CPO Futures (CPF) (1 lot = 10 metric tons) Delivery month Open Last price Jun.20 Jul.20 Aug.20

563.50 551.50 549.00

574.00 564.50 559.25

RBD Palm Olein—CNF South China Delivery month USD

Apr-May 610 (s)

Local CPKO - Central Malaysia - (price per-picul [16.5346 picul = one metric ton]) Apr 182 (s)

Prev. settlement 560.75 553.00 551.00

Change (US$) 13.25 11.50 8.25

Volume 2,154 7,997 5,514

Dalian Commodity Exchange - Palm Olein (RMB/ton) (Volume is bilateral) (1 lot = 10 metric tons) Delivery month Open Previous settlement Settle Change

Volume

Dalian Commodity Exchange - Soybean oil (RMB/ton) (Volume is bilateral) Delivery month Open Previous settlement Settle

Change

Volume

50 54 48

173,026 478,383 14,240

May.20 Sept.20 Jan.21

May.20 Sept.20 Jan.21

4,896 4,798 4,866

5,450 5,540 5,624

4,828 4,776 4,858

5,440 5,520 5,626

4,950 4,854 4,924

5,490 5,574 5,674

122 78 66

882,565 363,081 5,683

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palmoilanalytics.com

Bloomberg: POAS <GO>

ASIA CLOSING MARKET REPORT & SUMMARY OF LAURICS AND STEARIN

30TH MARCH 2020

NEWS & ANALYSIS — Weekly Laurics & Stearin Market update: 30 March—3 April 2020 CPKO: Stall in price fall, lower production and export outlook Local CPKO prices edged down RM 0.60 to a weekly average of RM 175.40/picul or US$ 667/ton after failing to build on the gains from the week prior. CPKO traded largely steady at RM 177-175/picul at the back of firm CPO Futures market. With the month coming to an end, CPO and CPKO production are expected to be lower from the disruption in the oil palm supply chain from harvesting to exports. Exports are seen performing slightly better on increase in shipment to China as the country recover from 3 months of lockdown. Stocks meanwhile are forecast to fall for the third month in a row to between 180,000 to 160,000 tons, the lowest in 22 months. Malaysia CPKO is expected to be in tight supply in April as production decline and stocks dwindle, making availability difficult and pressuring prices to move upwards.

Exports may see a fall in April after a rise in March given the global scale slowdown in shipping and port activities in the E.U and India. Outlook : Prices are expected to trade higher at the back of lower production and supported by the higher CPO Futures. Expect prices to reach a high of RM 185-190/picul this week. (1 ton= 16.5346).

CPKO CIF Rotterdam—Higher offer prices and active trading dominate the week Rotterdam offer prices advanced US$ 30-40 on spot and deferred month delivery ranging from US$ 725-790/ton. While offers were not called below US$ 700/ton as we expected, trades did take place below US$ 700/ton between US$ 650-685/ton on the spot month delivery.

Forward month trades took place between US$ 665 to 775/ton. In all instances, the traded values were below the asking price. A total of 11 trades were heard concluded last week, compared to none the week before. On Friday, Rotterdam CPKO was assessed at US$ 725/ton at the end of the week or US$ 35 higher than the week before. Higher prices at the origin market, strong buying from China and jump in Indonesian export prices by US$ 10 to US$ 670/ton on FOB basis pushed up Rotterdam destination prices. As highlighted last week, the port of Rotterdam remain operational, with cargo handling and production continuing unabated. However with the evolving situation on Covid-19, any action to reduce or stall the port activity will have a major repercussion on Malaysian and Indonesian palm product shipment and consequently on prices. Outlook: Traded prices are expected to advance above US$ 700/ton for spot month and deferred months to test US$ 800/ton this week.

CCNO CIF Rotterdam — Offer prices rise, more trades take place but spread to CPKO widen CCNO offer prices rose by US$ 25-40 last week with the top offer asking US$ 885/ton for Aug-Sept delivery. There were also more trades heard, 4 in total compared to none in the week before. Trades were concluded between US$ 790/ton for nearby month to US$ 845/ton for Jul-Aug. CCNO prices were generally higher last week after rising by US$ 8 week-on-week average basis. The higher CCNO price, widened the spread to CPKO by US$ 18 to US$ 136. The spread was US$ 58 at the start of the year. A higher spread prompt s oleo-chemical buyers to turn to cheaper CPKO instead for sourcing lauric acid feedstock. In the origin market, Philippines prices fell for the second week erasing US$ 10 week-on-week average basis to US$ 788/ton. In addition to lockdown in Metro Manila, which span 16 cities all of the major ports in the Philippines are in some sort of restrictions mainly on strict quarantine for vessels coming from China. All this is expected to slow the flow of import and exports in March and April. Given the Philippines is the biggest copra producer for export, a slowdown in the origin market will likely sap supply and push prices higher in the global market. Outlook: Offer prices will be in the highs of US$ 800/ton with some delivery months even testing US$ 900/ton this week.

Malaysia Weekly Stearin Market : Stearin stays at premium to olein. Prices seen rebounding in April RBD palm stearin prices stayed below US$ 600/ton for the first 2 days in the week but edged up to US$ 605/ton for the rest of the week tracking the gains in the CPO Futures market. RBD palm stearin prices was generally US$ 2.40 higher on a weekly average compared to the week before while RBD palm olein was up US$ 26.50, helping to reduce stearin premium over olein from US$ 19 down to US$ 6.50. This is the seventh week stearin is at premium to olein. Stearin prices rose rapidly rising US$ 102.50 or 20% from the start of the year, while olein edged up US$ 85 or 16% during the same time.

Depressed production, higher exports and dwindling stocks supported higher RBD palm stearin prices in the first quarter of this year. Additionally refiners been making higher offer prices for PFAD and RBD palm stearin in order to recover the lost margin on RBD palm olein. RBD palm olein generally trades US$ 40 above CPO, but with the fall in CPO prices, the margin fell below US$ 40 down to US$ 10 at times in the first quarter. Last week RBD palm stearin was offered at US$ 580-605/ton on Malaysia delivered basis. Stearin exports are seen improving in March while production are expected to be lower at the back of reduced fractionation of RBD palm olein, while stocks are seen falling for the fourth month in a row in March. Domestic demand for RBD palm stearin is forecast to rise underpinned by strong buying of personal and home care products where oleo-chemicals like stearin and lauric acid form the main feedback. Outlook: RBD palm stearin offer prices will trend firmly above US$ 600/ton this week. RBD palm stearin have the scope to rise higher to US$ 660/ton in the next 2 weeks.

For daily and historical prices and indices please subscribe to Palm Oil Analytics - info@palmoilanalytics.com

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Bloomberg: POAS <GO> ASIA CLOSING MARKET REPORT & SUMMARY OF LAURICS AND STEARIN

30TH MARCH 2020

DATA Fundamental palm related data due this week: 30 March—3 April 2020       

CIMB, Bloomberg & Reuters Malaysia March S&D estimate SPPOMA 1-31st March Malaysia production ITS, Amspec and SGS Malaysia 1-31st March export ITS Malaysia & Indonesia 1-31st March PME export MPOA, Malaysia 1-31st March production EIA U.S Biodiesel production for January NASS U.S Grain Quarterly stock position

Data released last week     

SPPOMA 1-20th March Malaysia production SPPOMA 1-25th March Malaysia production ITS, Amspec and SGS Malaysia 1-25th March export ITS Malaysia & Indonesia 1-25th March PME export MPOA, Malaysia 1-20th March production Malaysia 1-25 Mar 2020 vs. 1-25 Feb 2020 export (in mt) ITS : 838,793 vs. 970,764 (-131,971 or down 13.59%) Amspec : 866,270 vs. 981,073 (-114,803 or down 11.70%) SGS : Delayed due to movement restriction order

Malaysia 1-20 Mar 2020 vs. 1-20 Feb 2020 export (in mt) ITS : 644,421 vs. 817,314 (-173,893 or down 21.15%) Amspec : 654,440 vs. 819,653 (-165,213 or down 20.16%) SGS : Delayed due to movement restriction order

SPPOMA 1-25 Mar 2020 vs. 1-25 Feb 2020 FFB yield : -7.27% OER : +0.43% Production : -5.01%

SPPOMA 1-20 Mar 2020 vs. 1-20 Feb 2020 FFB yield : -0.087% OER : +0.51% Production : +2.60%

ITS : Malaysia & Indonesia PME export 1-25 Mar vs. 1-25 Feb 2020 (in mt) Total : 22,500 vs. 46,620 (-24,120 or down 51.74%) Malaysia : 22,500 vs. 46,620 (-24,120 or down 51.74%) Indonesia : zero vs. zero

ITS : Malaysia & Indonesia PME export 1-20 Mar vs. 1-20 Feb 2020 (in mt) Total : 1,500 vs. 22,315 (-20,815 or down 93.23%) Malaysia : 1,500 vs. 22,315 (-20,815 or down 93.23%) Indonesia : zero vs. zero

MPOA CPO Production 1 - 20 Mar 2020 vs. 1-20 Feb 2020 Peninsular Malaysia : -1.10% East Malaysia : +3.33% Sabah : +2.56% Sarawak : +6.14% Overall Malaysia : +0.35%

MPOA CPO Production 1 - 20 Mar 2019 vs. 1-20 Feb 2019 Peninsular Malaysia : -0.71% Sabah : -0.90% Sarawak : -0.72% Overall Malaysia : -0.76%

For daily and historical prices and indices please subscribe to Palm Oil Analytics - info@palmoilanalytics.com

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