Mass transit may become the only sustainable way to travel in Pakistan

As distances rise, so does the possibility of earning. Access to personal mobility, through bikes or cars, has been a distant dream for the working class, and now even those who earn six figures are looking for alternatives

By Momina Ashraf

Two years ago, Ezza Fatima brought immense pride to her family by getting admitted to NUST, Islamabad after passing with flying colours in the entrance exam. Her parents were happy, Fatima was content, and the future looked bright. Except for one hitch: Fatima lives in Bahria Town Phase 8 which is approximately 23 kilometres or an hour away from NUST.

In another household, Mohammad Akram’s wife, Saba Kiran, one evening proudly boasted to her friends that her husband got a permanent government job as a driver in the Ministry of Defence. No matter the rank, in Pakistan a government job brings stability, prestige, yearly appraisals and access to many other perks. The couple lives in Khanna Pull, Rawalpindi and Akram’s workplace at the Pak Secretariat is approximately 12 kilometres away from his residence, an enormous distance but manageable with his CD 70.

Given that the latest petrol rate since January 29, 2023, is Rs 250 per litre, let’s look at the daily expense for both Fatima and Akram. Fatima’s car gives her an average of 12 kilometres per litre, which means she spends at least Rs 500 on her one-way ride to university. So on a daily basis, she spends Rs 1,000 just to attend university. On the other hand, Akram’s bike gives an average of 35 kilometres per litre, which means he spends about Rs 85 on his one-way ride to his workplace. On a daily basis, he spends Rs 180 every day visiting his office.

Both Fatima and Akram are in a long-distance relationship with their dreams. The relationship turned toxic, as fuel prices saw a surge. Although Fatima and Akram come from very different socioeconomic backgrounds, both have found a solution in the Metrobus, which costs them Rs 80 (40+40) for a round trip to university and work, respectively.

With the current price hike, the fuel burden has reached a historic high. It’s no longer a matter of affordability for an ordinary citizen, but it is also a heavy burden for an already cash-strapped government. According to the Pakistan Bureau of Statistics in December 2022 30% of Pakistan’s total imports were spent to buy fuel only. The import bill is likely to go upward as fuel prices reach a historic high, and the dollar peg is removed. Such difficulties for the government are manifested in the lives of ordinary citizens, as they are the ones repaying the debt through high energy costs to fill the fiscal gap.

In this scenario, a lot of people are looking for alternate options. Mass transit, which argues in favour of affordability, mobility and environment preservation may become the safe haven for the plunging economy. To understand this, let’s explore it further.

Pakistan’s BRTs

The Metrobus (MBS) was inaugurated in Lahore in 2013, and marked Pakistan’s first bus-rapid transit (BRT). As described by Gulraiz Khan, an urban

“Our city designs don’t provide what we call the last mile trip, the short travel from home to station and vice versa. The roads don’t have dedicated sidewalks, enough lights or security measures to increase walkers’ confidence, especially women. The streets and roads are designed for cars which makes walking quite design practitioner in Karachi, the MBS is designed on the criteria laid out by the New York-based Institute for Transportation and Development Policy. It’s modern and smart; with barrier control, an automated fare system, air conditioning, wifi, segregation, information systems and a precision bus-docking system synchronised with sliding, automated glass doors that give it the look and feel of a subway station. Initially from just Rs 20, the comfortable MBS ride can cover a distance as long as 27 kilometres. The consequent BRTs, MBS Islamabad-Rawalpindi, MBS Multan, Orange Line Train Lahore, Transpeshawar, Green Line and the brand new, women-exclusive Pink Peoples Bus Service in Karachi follow similar or improved design and service.

The alternative options for Pakistan’s sprawling middle class are, auto-rickshaw, bike or Hiace, which cost at least two to three times more for distances for which the BRT charges just Rs 30-40. There are and always will be those who will still be able to afford personal cars, but then this mass transit is not for them.

“It’s cheap and comfortable. I have to travel from F-6 Islamabad to DHA Phase II (a distance of 22 kilometres) for my job daily and I can’t afford the luxury of having my own car or pay around Rs 1,500 a day to inDriver so I prefer the Metrobus,” said a female rider, requesting anonymity.

In its first year, Punjab Masstransit Authority (PMA) reported that MBS Lahore received a ridership of 140,000 people per day, more than the projected 120,000 per day. Similarly, Lahore’s Orange Line Metro Train (OLMT) has also been quite successful in terms of ridership. Just two years after its launch, the OLMT made a historic high in a total ridership of 50 million. According to the data revealed by TransPeshawar, the city’s electric-hybrid BRT, Zu Peshawar, also witnessed a surge in ridership. A total of 74 million riders travelled in 2022, of which 30% were females. The number indicates a 45% increase from 2021.

Since February 1, 2023, the country’s first women-only buses have also been inaugurated in

Urban Planning

Karachi. Known as the Pink Peoples Bus, it takes 50 women passengers and has women conductors and drivers. The bus passes from Malir to Tower at very minimal costs. There are eight buses as of now which run every 20 minutes from 7 am to 11 am and then from 4 pm to 9 pm, and every hour the rest of the time.

These figures clearly indicate that there is a demand for mass transit. Despite that, these projects have often come under hot water for their huge cost. Mass transits all over the world are built from heavy initial funding which run on subsidised rates to provide relief to the customer. In 2013, the metro bus charged a ticket of Rs 20 to travel to any stop in Lahore, including the longest route of 27 kilometres from the city’s outskirts of Gujjumatu to Shahdara. The government, back in 2013, was paying a subsidy of Rs 40 per ticket, which became a major point of contention. But it is worth noting that mass transit costs go beyond just the financial burden. Its usage is essentially a lifestyle change, and the possibility to achieve things which would otherwise not be possible. “Such projects are supposed to repay themselves over time because of ridership,” said Ammar A. Malik, infrastructure and development researcher at William and Mary research lab.

The OLMT was built on a Chinese loan of almost $1.2 billion. Given the project details, the loan is to be repaid in the next 20 years. The data in the Punjab Planning Commission Form-I, commonly known as PC-1, shows that the net benefits of the project will start showing positive figures in its 15th year. These figures only include financial costs such as power, maintenance, labour and benefits in terms of revenue generation. This means that after 15 years, the project will essentially sustain itself.

But with mass transits, there are a lot of latent benefits also which don’t usually account for immediate financial benefits. For example, the OLMT alone projected to create 2000 job opportunities. An officer at PMA who wishes to be unnamed said the unofficial number was higher.

The documents of PMA also reveal an Economic Rate of Return (ERR) of 13.6%. “Economic rate of return also includes the benefits accruing to society instead of purely the revenue returns. For mass transit, this number indicates job creation, reduction of cars on roads, fuel saving, reduction in carbon emissions and even time savings. This is an international standard and usually, if a project has an ERR of more than 10% it is considered economically viable,” explained Malik.

Walkability

The country’s BRTs cover most of the key metrics of a good service such as ridership capacity, service and operation ability (such as convenience and punctuality). These are some pointers that our BRTs check mark, however, these don’t account for the real-life experience of different people.

Malik, who worked on a research project on street harassment and fear of violence in Lahore said, “We observed that women feel safe on the bus but the fear increases as soon as the ride ends and they have to walk out of the station towards the streets or simply while getting out of the bus as a lot of people try to push and touch inappropriately then.”

This fear prevents many women to ride the bus and take different routes. “I’m able to walk to the station from home during the day because it’s quite near and daytime feels safe. But the station near my office is in an isolated area and the only reason I’m able to take the bus is that we have an office car there to pick us up. Sometimes I take the autorickshaw or an app-based cab which can go up to Rs 300 just for a five-to-six-minute ride,” said the same female rider who wishes to stay anonymous.

Such problems point towards cities more than public transport. “Our city designs don’t provide what we call the ‘last mile trip’. It is a short trip from home to the station and vice versa. The roads don’t have dedicated sidewalks, enough lights or security measures to increase walkers’ confidence, especially women’s. The streets and roads are designed for cars which makes walking quite dangerous,” explained Naveed Iftikhar, an urban planner.

“Our harassment and street crime project was with smart city Lahore and Punjab police. We built an app to report fear and harassment and observed that in areas where police patrolling was present, the reports were quite less,” said Malik. “But police patrolling duties were not based on areas where fear of reported crimes were high, but it was based on the personal decision of the local police,” he continued.

The city expansion, through housing societies, bridges and highways makes it inaccessible for the common citizen. “The concept of a highway is not meant for within a city but to attach to different cities. In our old neighbourhoods such as Burns Road and Tariq Road, you can see the presence of all age groups of men and women. It’s because they are streets conducive to walking. Compare that with neighbourhoods like DHA where you can hardly find a footpath. Even small errands like getting bread and milk are done on cars,” added Iftikhar.

The year 2022 was a traumatic one for Pakistan in terms of economic and environmental strain. In the expanding cities of a developing country such as Pakistan, the strains fall more heavily on the middle-income and lower strata. As distances rise, so does the possibility of earning. Access to personal mobility, through bikes or cars, has been a distant dream for the working class, and now even those whose pay touches six figures are looking for alternatives. However, the elimination of cars may never become a reality as long as their use is not actively disincentive by the government, or elements of walkability improved. n