OPINION
Uzair Younus
Tough reforms ahead
the bottom up, is the only path forward. Much has been written about what needs to happen: raise taxes from the privileged few and end the subsidies and perks doled out to them, which total over $17 billion annually; reduce the government’s t long last, the Shehbaz Sharif government has interventions in key markets, especially wheat and sugar; restructure decided to bite the bullet. Finance minister the energy sector through various measures including privatization; Miftah Ismail has finally announced a Rs. 30 and reduce the incentives for investment in Plotistan by raising taxes per liter increase in the price of petrol, beginfrom real estate and bring an end to recurring amnesties that encourning the process of actions that are expected age tax evasion. to bring the IMF program back on track. The blueprints are there but what is lacking is the political will This should not have taken as long as it did, but now that the and courage. This is not a surprise. After all, the very beneficiaries of government has decided to expand political capital in the nearthe status quo are in and around the corridors of power. This elite term to stabilize the economy, Pakistanis can breathe a sigh of class has continued to enrich itself from the status quo economy relief. while ordinary citizens have fallen behind the rest of the world. For It is likely that the government will announce further this class, the good times continue and come what may, they always painful measures in the coming days, including an increase in emerge as the winners. electricity tariffs. There will be the usual howls about how This elite class, however, should step outside its bubble and citizens are being burdened, something that the leading parties take a serious look at the crisis brewing around it. From Karachi to in the current coalition government are also guilty of when they Skardu, a volcano is showing signs of eruption. The anger is manifestwere in opposition. Inflation is surely going to rise in the coming itself through various movements, including tens of thousands of ing days and ordinary citizens, beaten down by over 40 percent youth marching out in support of Imran Khan, an underprivileged and inflation over the last three and a half years, are only going to urbanized class aligning itself with the Tehreek-e-Labbaik Pakistan, experience more pain. and an evolving insurgency in Balochistan whose backbone are young, The ongoing economic pain in Pakistan is part of a educated citizens who have had enough of the kleptocracy. decades-long decline where Pakistanis have continued to fall For now, these groups are divided across ethnicity, class, and behind the rest of their peers in the world. While another dose ideology. But as Pakistan urbanizes and gets connected through digof the proverbial chemotherapy administered under the careful ital technologies, these disparate groups are likely to unite to form a supervision of the IMF is necessary for the economy, it is imtidal wave that will shake the very foundations of Pakistan’s politportant for Pakistan’s elites to recognize that a shock and awe ical economy. The majority of Pakistanis are under 25 years of age, approach, where the economy is rebuilt and restructured from meaning that they are entering a phase of their life where they need jobs and growing incomes to meet their ambitions and aspirations. An ossified ruling elite, both civilian and non-civilian, has shown over the last few months that it is simply incapable of understanding what this cohort desires and how angry it is becoming. As the next few years tick by, millions of these citizens will find themselves unable to meet the needs of their elderly parents and young children. What happens at that time is anyone’s guess, but a prudent analysis will lead one to The writer is Director of conclude that it will not be a pretty sight. the Pakistan Initiative Which is why it is in the Pakistani elite’s own self-interest to alter the status quo and rebuild Pakiat the Atlantic Council, a stan’s economy. Because if they choose not to reform, reforms will be thrust upon them. The signs are not Washington D.C.-based encouraging so far, but the ongoing crisis and the upcoming budget is an opportunity to begin the long think tank, and host of the and arduous process for reforms. podcast Pakistonomy. He The Sharif government seems to have decided to make tough choices. One hopes that they beyond tweets @uzairyounus. just doing the bare minimum needed to get the IMF program back on track.
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