Predictive Tests
Tests of Teaching and Learning
Purpose of test
Predict future performance on similar tests. The initial test serves as a baseline
Determine what was learned and the effectiveness of teaching
Why you would want to do that
When the future score is other than what was predicted it can serve as a signal to explore further
You need to determine what was learned and the effectiveness of teaching
Proper uses
Explore patterns that need to be disrupted and over time, determine if the disruptions worked
Check on whether what was taught was learned
Greatest misunderstanding about the tests
They offer little if any insights regarding teaching and learning If passing is assigned to a score, it will be impossible for all students to pass the test because predictive tests are always zero-sum games
Because the scores are assigned by a teacher, they are presumed to be subjective — but that can be overcome through training and calibration among teachers
Source for test content
State content standards
State content standards
Criteria for content
Statistical: Only test items that operate within a narrow statistical range are included — all others are rejected, or the test would fail to be predictive
Curricular: if it was taught it is fair game, regardless of the statistical properties of the resulting test item
Who makes them
Test publishers and test professionals
Teachers
How do they work
Predictive tests start with average and then use the items to determine how far above or below that average a student is. When that relationship to average for a student or a group of students changes, it can be inferred that something happened to cause that change and a search for reasons can begin
The combination of correct responses serves as a demonstration of what was learned
• Norm-referenced testing programs to identify patterns that needed to be disrupted and the success of selected disruptions
• Check on the what was learned
Primary purpose prior to test-based accountability
• ACT/SAT Primary purpose under test-based accountability
• State testing programs/school quality determination Check on what was to have been learned
Assign grades
• ACT/SAT
the three Georgia consortia, Navvy, MAP, and Cobb Metrics, submitted applications to the U.S. Department of Education’s on Dec. 17. If accepted, the Georgia school districts participating in the consortia could substitute alternate assessments and would not be required by USED to administer Georgia Milestones. Some Georgia Schools Are Rated More Harshly
Congressional passage of the federal Every Student Succeeds Act (ESSA) acknowledges the harm of overemphasis on assessment-based school accountability (an overemphasis demonstrated by ESSA’s predecessor, No Child Left Behind). For its part, Georgia struggles to achieve balance with regard to its test-based accountability system — the College and Career Ready Performance Index (CCRPI) — which is heavily reliant on student assessment scores. The Governor’s Office of Student Achievement (GOSA) uses CCRPI scores to assign Georgia schools A-F letter grades. The assignment of such grades is a discretionary function on the part of GOSA. A Georgia law
January/February 2019
• Assign grades
mandating the assignment of A-F scores never went into effect when the proposed Opportunity School District amendment failed in a 2016 statewide referendum. A November 2016 study conducted by Richard O. Welsh, Ph.D., of UGA in conjunction with development of Georgia’s ESSA plan, compared CCRPI to accountability systems in other states. Welsh found that, though Georgia’s accountability system appears to identify the tails (A and F) of the school performance distribution fairly accurately, using nationally normed measures adjusted for student demographics, Georgia appears to rate some schools in the middle of the distribution more harshly. Due to potential changes in GOSA’s function resulting from a new gubernatorial administration and prospective acceptance of Georgia into USED’s innovative assessment program, changes in Georgia’s assessment and accountability landscape may be on the horizon in coming months. It is also possible that the role of GOSA could be scaled down to that of the agency’s original n auditing mission.
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